The Hariri Murder Investigation:
T_desco has provided this report on as-Safir’s treatment of news that Hizbullah members will be named in the Hariri Investigation. I thank him. Even if Hizbullah members are implicated in the murder, many questions will still be asked: Did Hizbullah initiate the assassination planning? How much did either Iran or Syria know or approve of the action.

As Safir: Ex-U.S. Official: It Was Obvious Syrians Were Not Behind Hariri Killing

A former high-level U.S. official has said that Washington was lately aware that no Syrian stood behind the assassination of ex-Premier Saad Hariri. “It was lately obvious to us that the Syrians were not behind the assassination. However, they probably knew about it (sic!),” the former official told As Safir daily.

Asked about the political intentions of Hizbullah, the official said: “We don’t know yet. We have thought about many scenarios.” (…) Naharnet, July 20, 2010 (my emphasis) There is certainly some creative talent required to figure out the ‘motive’. Perhaps they should ask Hollywood.

As Safir: Bellemare Said Army Won’t Arrest Hizbullah Member in Case of Involvement in Hariri Murder

As-Safir quoted Bellemare as saying that the announcement of his findings would include two rounds. They will start in September and last till end of 2010.

The first round will involve 3-5 names from Hizbullah while the second will include the naming of around 20 party members, according to the report.

However, the Hizbullah leadership will not be blamed for the killing, As-Safir said, adding that his findings do not include names of Syrians.

Naharnet, July 20, 2010:

By not implicating the leadership they would cunningly manage to avoid all the hard questions concerning the alleged motive of the attack.

Iraqi cleric meets with PM candidate in Syria

By REBECCA SANTANA (AP) – 8 hours ago

BAGHDAD — Anti-American Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr took a rare, public step into the political arena Monday, meeting in neighboring Syria with the man directly challenging Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki for his office.

The talks between al-Sadr, who is nominally allied with al-Maliki, and former premier Ayad Allawi, who heads the heavily Sunni-backed Iraqiya coalition, appeared to be as much about showing al-Maliki that al-Sadr is keeping his options open as it was about any firm political agreement between the two men in the offing.

Al-Sadr rarely travels outside of his home base in Iran, where he lives in self-imposed exile. His followers won 39 seats in the 325-seat parliament in Iraq’s national election in March, giving him considerable sway over who becomes the next prime minister.

Following the ballot, al-Sadr joined a coalition with al-Maliki’s list, but the deep-rooted hatred many in the Sadrist camp feel toward the prime minister — who’s jailed thousands of their supporters — has stalled any further development of their alliance.

In Damascus, al-Sadr and Allawi appeared complimentary of each other following their meeting — a shocking development considering the past animosity between the two and a clear signal in Iraq’s rough-and-tumble political scene that all options are on the table when it comes to forming a new government….

But the two leaders’ appeared to put aside their differences in the meeting that was arranged by the Syrian president. In pictures, the pair sat side by side, with Allawi in his business suit and al-Sadr in his flowing robes and black turban…..

The director general of MI5 between 2002 and 2007, Eliza Manningham-Buller at the Iraq inquiry explains that:

• Saddam posed ‘limited threat’ inside UK before 2003
• CIA didn’t believe Iraq was responsible for 9/11
• Toppling of Saddam allowed Bin Laden to enter Iraq
• MI5 ‘overwhelmed’ with home-grown threats after 2003
– 20 July – The Guardian

Gareth Porter at IPS/ [thanks FLC]

“… Philip Giraldi, a former CIA counterterrorism official, told IPS that his sources are CIA officials with direct knowledge of the entire Amiri operation.
The CIA contacts say that Amiri had been reporting to the CIA for some time before being brought to the U.S. during Hajj last year, Giraldi told IPS, initially using satellite-based communication. But the contacts also say Amiri was a radiation safety specialist who was “absolutely peripheral” to Iran’s nuclear programme, according to Giraldi.

Amiri provided “almost no information” about Iran’s nuclear programme, said Giraldi, but had picked up “scuttlebutt” from other nuclear scientists with whom he was acquainted that the Iranians have no active nuclear weapon programme.

Opinion: “Future of the region made in Damascus” Mideastwire.com translation

On July 20, the state-controlled Al-Watan daily carried the following opinion piece by political editor Ziad Haidar: “The most prominent thing that came out from Damascus amid the intensive diplomatic activities it witnessed yesterday was probably the statement in which the local news agency SANA quoted a Syrian presidential spokesman. During President Bashar al-Assad’s meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, as SANA focused in its coverage of the meeting on the “wish to exploit this exceptional relationship (between Turkey and Syria) to secure peace and stability in the region,” he was stressing the necessity (and this is the main point) “for the solutions to the problems in the region to come from its states and not from abroad.”

“Therefore, what was noticeable in Davutoglu’s visit was that it coincided with the presence of three extremely important guests, which would probably explain why this visit, that was supposed to be held last Friday, was postponed until this day, i.e. so that he is present during President Al-Assad’s lunch for Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’d al-Hariri, and so that he could meet with the head of the Iraqi list that won the elections, Iyad Allawi, after the latter had met with President Al-Assad and leader of the Sadrist Movement Sayyed Moqtada al-Sadr who had also been visiting Damascus for the last two days. The presence of the Turkish element in Damascus’ activities could be understood as a summit meeting which brought together the leaders of the region, or those who represent them, in order to draw up its future and add more factors of stability…

“In that same context, these contacts emerged as outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki dispatched envoys and messages to Damascus, expressing “the wish to correct the course of relations between Damascus and Baghdad,” and calling for “forgetting the past and looking toward the future.” These messages coincided with the discussion of Iraqi affairs in Damascus, as part of the visit of American Senator John Kerry a while ago, especially in light of the American coldness that surfaced in regard to pushing for a prompt solution in Iraq based on the outcome of the elections. Later on, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman visited Baghdad and came out with a result “stressing the necessity for the government to include all the political sides that participated in the electoral process.”

“Find a Middle Ground: Armenian Church and the Getty Should Work Together,”
By Heghnar Watenpaugh, Los Angeles Times, July 19, 2010

CBS news reports that “The government of Syria has already reassigned hundreds of niqab-wearing school-teachers to administrative offices where they would not have contact with students.” AP’s Edward Yeranian writes that the recent ban “follows a decision last month to dismiss 1200 Syrian school teachers who wear the face veil in class. Education officials, at the time, stressed that Syria was a “secular society,” and that extremism is “unacceptable.”

Two Syrian women, left, wear the niqab, a face-covering Islamic veil, as they shop in Souk Al-Hamediah, Damascus’ oldest market, Syria, 19 July 2010

Al-Arabiya TV quoted an education ministry official, who argued the niqab was “against academic principles” as well as “campus regulations.”  He also called the practice an “ideological invasion.” Syria’s ruling Ba’ath Party denounced niqab-wearing at a recent conference.

Ayman Abdalnour writes that, according to sources he cannot name, the reason behind the new law is the rapid growth of private girls schools which encourage the niqab. Most of the private schools are run by religious organizations. Unofficial statistics reported by Abdalnour suggest that some 25-30% of female primary students are in private schools in Damsacus. There are some “200 private girls schools” in Damascus and “the majority of teachers wear the Niqab,” he insists. [A note of caution. These statistics are very hard to believe. How many elementary schools are there in all Damascus? Probably not more than 200, and that is including all private schools.]

Elizabeth Kennedy in her article, “Syria bans full Islamic face veils at universities” explores the notion that the niqab “is a religious obligation,” or reflection of personal freedom. As one women argued: “Wearing my niqab is a personal decision. It reflects my freedom.”

She also explores the notion of whether extremism is being brought on by the rapid income gap growing in Syria.
___

In an interview with Der Spiegel, ElBaradei said that if there were “no chance of a fair campaign,” he would call for a boycott.

Reports indicate that the presence of women in the Egyptian workforce “has not translated into any fundamental shift in prevailing attitudes toward women in public life.” According to the World Economic Forum’s 2009 Gender Gap Report (read the full report as a pdf), Egypt ranks 126 out of 134 countries. Syria ranks 121. In the political sphere, Egyptian women currently only occupy 8 out of the 454 parliamentary seats, spurring a new quota system that will guarantee 64 seats for women in the upcoming elections.

Thanks to POMED

The Economist published a new in-depth, 9-part, special report by Max Rodenbeck describing various aspects of Egyptian political, social, and economic life. The report considers the past three decades of “political paralysis” under the rule of Hosni Mubarak, but concludes that due to the looming presidential succession, and signs that Egypt’s “rising generation” may be more politically active than its predecessors, “the expectation of a seismic shift is almost tangible in the air.” Rodenbeck outlines three main possibilities for Egypt’s future: “It could go the way of Russia and be ruled by a new strongman from within the system. It might, just as possibly, go the way of Iran, and see that system swept away in anger. Or it could go the way of Turkey, and evolve into something less brittle and happier for all concerned.” The report also discusses Egypt’s resources and economic advantages; the lack of faith in the electoral process; the political promise of Mohamed ElBaradei; the changing role of Islam in Egyptian society and politics;the weakness of the Egyptian educational system; the implications of the socioeconomic gap; and possible scenarios for presidential succession after Mubarak.

The Economist article, When kings and princes grow old, about the Saudi succession …. paints the following fairly rosy picture: … Its $420 billion economy faces little risk of losing its place as the biggest in the Middle East, given steady oil reserves and production, around $150 billion in annual energy exports and a strengthening world oil market. The country’s net foreign reserves still nearly equal its GDP. Economists expect growth to accelerate slowly from around 4% this year, ensuring steadily rising living standards. These are seemingly impressive figures. Indeed, the Saudi economy is expected to grow 3.8% in 2010, but that is evidently in nominal terms. Since there is inflation of 5%, the economy is actually shrinking as the population grows. (This was copied from an email news letter)

A Decade in Power, part 1: Playing a double-edged game. Syria’s International Relations under Bashar
www.damascusbureau.org

It was a tough act to follow: Hafez al-Assad Hafez was known to be a savvy head of state. He was able to sustain good relations with important Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and Egypt and play on their differences. Where does Syria stand internationally ten years later, after a decade of Bashar al…

Netanyahu said something similar in his book, A Durable Peace:

Later on in his book, in a chapter entitled “Jewish Power,” Netanyahu assailed Israeli policy makers who had attempted to meet American land-for-peace demands, describing them as weaklings bent over in a “submissive posture.”

“It does not cross the minds of these advocates of capitulation,” Netanyahu wrote, “that the task of Israel’s leaders is to try to convince the American government that it is in the interest of the United States to follow policies that cohere with Israeli interests, not vice versa.”

Meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu last week, President Obama could not have been more effusive. “I believe Prime Minister Netanyahu wants peace,” Obama said. “I believe he is ready to take risks for peace.”

Bashar al-Assad’s tightening grip on Syria 10 years on
By Jim Muir BBC News, Beirut

When Bashar al-Assad was sworn in as Syria’s president on 17 July 2000 following his father Hafez al-Assad’s death, few would have bet heavily on the tall, callow-looking young man’s chances of still being in the job ten years later.

He was just 34 years old and the constitution had to be changed to enable him to take over. There was no precedent for power passing from father to son in a supposedly democratic Arab republic. ….. To mark Bashar Assad’s ten years in power, the international advocacy group Human Rights Watch issued a report entitled A Wasted Decade…. the odds on him celebrating a second decade of rule would certainly be a lot stronger than they were in 2000.

Egyptian Leader’s Health on U.S. Radar
By: Eli Lake | The Washington Times

U.S. and Western intelligence agencies assess that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is terminally ill, and the Obama administration is closely watching the expected transition of power in a nation that for decades has been an anchor of stability in the volatile Middle East and a key U.S. ally…. the 82-year-old Egyptian leader is thought by most Western intelligence agencies to be dying from terminal cancer affecting his stomach and pancreas…..An intelligence officer from a Central European service told The Washington Times last week that his service estimates that the Egyptian president will be dead within a year, and before Cairo’s scheduled presidential elections in September 2011….

A senior U.S. intelligence officer said: “We have access to, for lack of a better word, his court. We know he is dying, but we don’t know when he will die. You can be dying for a long time, by the way. Look at [former Cuban President Fidel] Castro.”…

In 2007, Mr. Mubarak pushed a new law through Egypt’s People’s Assembly that would make the speaker of the assembly president for 60 days while he oversaw arrangements for a special election. The new law requires anyone standing for that election to be in the leadership of a political party for at least one year.

While Mr. Mubarak has declined to endorse a successor, the new law on presidential succession provides a major advantage to Mr. Mubarak’s son, Gamal Mubarak, 47. The younger Mr. Mubarak is head of the powerful policy committee of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), the party that has led Egypt’s government for more than 50 years.

Other potential military rivals to Gamal Mubarak, whose nickname is “Jimmy” in U.S. policymaking circles and among the Egyptian elite such as Mr. Suleiman, are not formal members of the NDP.

T_desco writes: What would be the repercussions for Syria of a possible multi-front war in Lebanon (Hariri indictment > civil war > UNIFIL conflict > Israeli attack)?

Sami Moubayed:  Tribunal could shake up Lebanon
Gulf News, July 20, 2010

(…) However, Hezbollah officials believe that Israel, with the implicit backing of the US, is lobbying for the tribunal to name Hezbollah officials as the perpetrators of Hariri’s murder.

The Israelis believe that if that were to happen, Lebanon would erupt into chaos and it would become very difficult for the state to function, as Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri could not possibly continue “protecting and embracing” the arms of Hezbollah. The current rapprochement between Lebanese Sunnis and Shiites would collapse, Israelis believe, and Lebanon would become very hostile and unsafe territory for Hezbollah.”

The Israeli plot (courtesy Haaretz): Haaretz, July 19, 2010

“Nasrallah has good reason to sweat over the prosecutor’s apparent findings. They could mark the end of the coalition between Saad Hariri, Rafik Hariri’s son and current Lebanese premier, and Hezbollah. The findings could also make it difficult for Hezbollah to maintain its close alliance with the general Michel Aoun, a Christian, which would threaten Lebanon with a grave political crisis. (…)

In the military sphere, there is no force in Lebanon that poses a great threat to Hezbollah. Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has turned from an enemy of Hezbollah into an ally and General Aoun embraces Hezbollah publicly at every opportunity.

But in the event that information is released that includes proof of Hezbollah’s involvement in the Hariri killing, this support will no doubt be dropped. In its place, calls to disarm and dismantle Hezbollah, the last armed militia in Lebanon, will only grow stronger.”

General Aoun’s “analytical” scenario:
Naharnet, July 17, 2010

“The FPM leader expressed fears that upon issuance of the indictment, Israel would launch a large-scale war on Lebanon, during which the resistance would be hit by “Israeli fire” from one side and “internal strife fire” on the other.

Aoun also warned that given this situation, some Christian parties would seek to impose a new status quo in their regions while fundamentalist groups in Palestinian camps would act the same way.

As Safir said that the FPM leader asked his allies, particularly Hizbullah, to ready themselves to confront such strife and review the current structure of the national unity cabinet, which according to Aoun would be incapable of facing such threats.

“They want to kill you once more,” Aoun reportedly told Nasrallah. “There is still a Lebanese team betting on a new Israeli war, that’s why … I advise you to change the rules of the game.”

A couple of interesting articles by Georges Malbrunot today:

Les capitales européennes divisées sur la mission de leurs Casques bleus
Georges Malbrunot, Le Figaro, 19/07/2010

(…) Mais, dans son insistance pour que la résolution 1701 de l’ONU soit appliquée – quitte à heurter les sensibilités de la population -, Paris se retrouve isolé, au moment où le Conseil de sécurité doit reconduire, à la mi-août, le mandat de la Finul.

«Nous ne voulons pas que les Français prennent en otage la Finul pour régler des problèmes face au Hezbollah ou à l’Iran», lâche un diplomate d’un pays européen contributeur, qui soupçonne Paris de vouloir durcir le ton contre le Hezbollah – et son tuteur iranien accusé de fabriquer la bombe. (…)

D’autant que la relation avec la Finul n’est pas au mieux. Le commandant des forces armées, le général Jean Kahwagi, est irrité par les «trop nombreux déplacements de membres de la Finul en Israël». Plusieurs officiers français et italiens seraient visés. Là encore, le Hezbollah n’ignore rien de ces entorses au règlement onusien. (…)

Pour permettre à la Finul d’exercer pleinement son mandat, l’un des projets à l’étude à New York serait de retirer les soldats français de leur zone de déploiement pour leur confier la responsabilité d’une force de réaction rapide, renforcée par rapport à sa version actuelle, c’est-à-dire capable de s’interposer, en cas de problème grave. (…)

“Un attentat est redouté Le Figaro, 19/07/2010

Trois jours avant le déclenchement des manœuvres onusiennes début juillet, à Beyrouth, le ministère de la Défense conseilla à la Finul de ne pas se déployer sur le terrain (so much for Lebanese sovereignty; t_d). «Je répétais aux Français qu’ils devaient faire attention», affirme de son côté Nabil Fawaz, le maire de Tibnine.

L’activisme français dérange le Hezbollah. Certaines de ses armes restent dissimulées sous les mosquées et les terrains de football. Mais, contrairement aux Israéliens, les experts militaires occidentaux ne pensent pas que le Hezbollah ait introduit une quantité importante de munitions au Sud depuis 2006. Sa priorité est au nord de la zone Finul et du fleuve Litani. Le «Parti de Dieu» y a camouflé ses armes les plus sophistiquées, venues d’Iran et de Syrie, y compris dans les zones chrétiennes.

(…) Mais personne n’est dupe. «Si les Français ne changent pas leur comportement, il y aura une autre réaction», assure Hola Ibrahim, de Kirbet Slem. Sous-entendu : un attentat contre le contingent français ne serait pas à exclure.”

(my emphasis)

Une reconstitution de l’assassinat de Rafic Hariri près de Bordeaux

Une reconstitution de l’assassinat de l’ex premier ministre libanais Rafic Hariri en 2005 à Beyrouth doit avoir lieu cet automne dans une base militaire au sud de Bordeaux, révèle au Figaro une source policière. Un enquêteur s’est rendu récemment sur place. L’organisation de cette reconstitution à huis clos poserait d’importants problèmes de sécurité. (…)
Georges Malbrunot, 19/07/2010

Robert Fisk: They’re all grovelling and you can guess the reason Classic Fisk on Obama.

US’ Unusual Security Assistance to Israel

A top Hillary Clinton aide laid out in unusual detail Friday what he called the Obama administration’s unprecedented security assistance to the Jewish state.

“Our security relationship with Israel is broader, deeper and more intense than ever before,’ Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs Andrew Shapiro told the Brookings Institution Friday.

Shapiro said the Obama administration would honor a 2007 commitment to provide Israel $30 billion in security assistance over the next ten years. Israel is the largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid.

The U.S. also gives Israel something it does not give to any other beneficiary of U.S. foreign military financing, he noted.

“Unlike other beneficiaries of Foreign Military Financing, which are legally required to spend funds in the United States, Israel is the only country authorized to set aside one-quarter of its FMF funding for off-shore procurements,” Shapiro said.

The Obama administration is also continuing to commit itself to preserve Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge – “its ability to counter and defeat credible military threats from any individual state, coalition of states, or non-state actor, while sustaining minimal damages or casualties,” as Shapiro defined it.

That also means that the U.S. will sell Israel defense equipment that it will deny to other U.S. allies in the region.

“This means that as a matter of policy, we will not proceed with any release of military equipment or services that may pose a risk to allies or contribute to regional insecurity in the Middle East,” Shapiro said.

Iraqis to seek torture inquiry in Britain
Agence France-Presse – 17 July, 2010

More than 100 Iraqis who claim they were tortured and abused by British forces after the invasion of Iraq won a key legal battle in London on Friday in their bid to force a public inquiry.

Lawyers for the Iraqis said they had “incontrovertible” evidence the detainees were subjected to inhuman and degrading treatment by British soldiers that included hooding, electric shocks and sexual abuse.

Judges Christopher May and Debra Silber ruled the 102 Iraqis should be allowed to bring a High Court action to try to force an inquiry into their allegations against the Ministry of Defence.

“The claimant’s case is sufficiently persuasive for permission purposes,” the judges said at London’s High Court.

“It sufficiently makes the case that the alleged ill-treatment may be seen as systemic and raises questions of its authorisation, or failure to stop it.”

The Democracy Obsession
Posted on July 9th, 2010 by Patrick J. Buchanan

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With the disintegration of the Soviet Empire and the Soviet Union, and Beijing’s abandonment of Maoism, anti-communism necessarily ceased to be the polestar of U.S. foreign policy.

For many, our triumph fairly cried out for a bottom-up review of all the alliances created to fight that Cold War and a return to a policy of non-intervention in foreign quarrels where no vital U.S. interest was imperiled.

This was dismissed as isolationism. Seeking some new cause to give meaning to their lives, our suddenly superfluous foreign policy elites settled upon a crusade for democracy as America’s new mission in the world.

Interventions in Panama, Somalia, Haiti and Bosnia followed, plus wars in the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan. To further advance the great goal, the National Endowment for Democracy and agencies like Freedom House set out to subvert authoritarian regimes in Belgrade, Caracas, Kiev, Tbilisi, Beirut and Bishkek.

Cold War methods and means were now to be conscripted — for democratic ends.

Yet, considering the high cost in blood, money and lost leadership and prestige since our victory in the Cold War, the democracy crusade scarcely seems worth it. For while we have been bogged down in two wars, China has become the world’s leading manufacturer, steelmaker, auto producer and exporter, and the second largest economy on earth.

Nevertheless, we are ever admonished, we must not flag or fail in our pursuit of global democracy, for only when the world is democratic will our providential mission be accomplished. And only then can we be truly secure…..

From the Mideastwire Blog: “Kurtzer on preventing the next Lebanon war: we can only manage it after the fact”

This piece by former US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer is, unfortunately, yet another indication of the poverty of thought in Washington and the US in general when it comes to heading off another devastating war in Lebanon and Israel. It is also instructive of the danger of having high profile figures like Kurtzer comment on situations for which they are not specialists – indeed, Kurtzer’s short piece on US options for preventing the next war – for CFR no less – carries a number of basic errors in regards to Lebanon and Hizbullah that perhaps he would not have made if the piece was only directly related to his apparent specialist field of Egypt and Israel:

Fadlallah death likely starting point for war? The piece starts off with this incredible statement: “There are two plausible scenarios for war in Lebanon. First, Hezbollah could initiate hostilities. The recent passing of Lebanese Shia cleric Muhammad Hussein Fadl’Allah, a spiritual adviser to Hezbollah and a man with many enemies inside and outside Lebanon, could spark strife within Lebanon in which Hezbollah could decide to attack Israel as a means of unifying its supporters.”

There is little explanation offered for what is a baffling FIRST statement of contingency. The scenario he draws here as a first order of business is something I have simply not heard discussed seriously or at all here in Beirut – such that I had to conclude perhaps Kurtzer was confusing Fadlallah with Mughniyeah? In any case, this sort of wild speculation at the beginning of what purports to be a serious treatment of a complex subject immediately calls into question what follows… To read the full post, click here.

Syrian Market too Expensive to Enter, Turkish Bank Says (Syria Report)
The Syrian market is too expensive to enter, the management of Turkish bank Halkbank said in press comments.

Economy: Customs Register 30 percent Increase in H1 Revenues

Revenues generated by Syria’s customs stood at SYP 43 billion in the first half of this year, an annual increase of 30 percent.

The Syrian Business Council, which regroups most of Syria’s new business elite, has issued a rare statement criticising the relevance [accuracy?] of official statistics and their impact on investment and growth.

Finance: Half of Private Sector Banks’ Branches Located in Greater Damascus

The number of branches and offices run by private sector banks in Syria increased by around 13 percent in the first half of this year.

Finance: Central Bank Encourages Lending to SMEs

The Central Bank has issued a decision to encourage local banks to extend loans and other credit facilities to small and medium enterprises as well as to productive sectors.

Tourism: Syria Records Significant Increase in Tourists in H1, 2010

The number of tourists having visited Syria in the first half of this year increased by 63 percent compared to the same period of last year according to the Ministry of Tourism.

Tourism: French Company to Build USD 22 Million Entertainment Centre in Homs

Loftus, a French company specialized in the construction and management of entertainment infrastructures, has signed an agreement to build an amusement centre in Homs. Read

The Human Rights Watch report, “A Wasted Decade: Human Rights in Syria during Bashar al-Asad’s First Ten Years in Power.”
Syria’s Decade of Repression
By: Nadim Houry | The Guardian

What is clear from a review of Assad’s decade in power is that he has no true commitment to broadening public freedoms for Syria’s citizens, perhaps the most repressed in the entire Arab world. What initiatives he has taken have been limited at best; he removed a ban on independent publications, but the only two private newspapers allowed to cover political topics are owned by businessmen closely tied to his government.

On the surface, Syria is a less menacing place than it was in the 1980s. Visitors to Damascus – one of this year’s hot travel destinations – are likely to stay in smart boutique hotels and dine in new restaurants. But scratch the surface, something few foreigners do, and the reality is as bleak as ever. As a prominent dissident told me recently: “In the 1980s, we went to jail without trial. Now, we get a trial, but we still go to jail.”

Noam Sheizaf “Endgame,” Haaretz, 15 July 2010.

It’s an idea for solving the conflict that sounds like a vision of the end of days: Grant Israeli citizenship and equal rights to all the Palestinians in the West Bank. And who is proposing the one-state solution? Right-wingers and settlers…. Geneva Initiative’s Gadi Baltiansky – “The solution for the coming decades is the present status quo, with improvements of one kind or another.”

TABLET Magazine taken from Haaretz and via FLC

“… Netanyahu is speaking to a small group in the West Bank settlement of Ofra two years after stepping down as prime minister in 1999…..

“I know what America is,” Netanyahu replied. “America is a thing you can move very easily, move it in the right direction. They won’t get in their way.” He then called former president Bill Clinton “radically pro-Palestinian,” and went on to belittle the Oslo peace accords as vulnerable to manipulation. Since the accords state that Israel would be allowed to hang on to pre-defined military zones in the West Bank, Netanyahu told his hosts that he could torpedo the accords by defining vast swaths of land as just that.

“They asked me before the election if I’d honor [the Oslo accords],” Netanyahu said. “I said I would, but … I’m going to interpret the accords in such a way that would allow me to put an end to this galloping forward to the ’67 borders. How did we do it? Nobody said what defined military zones were. Defined military zones are security zones; as far as I’m concerned, the entire Jordan Valley is a defined military zone. Go argue.”

Smiling, Netanyahu then recalled how he forced former U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher to agree to let Israel alone determine which parts of the West Bank were to be defined as military zones. “They didn’t want to give me that letter,” Netanyahu said, “so I didn’t give them the Hebron agreement [the agreement giving Hebron back to the Palestinians]. I cut the cabinet meeting short and said, ‘I’m not signing.’ Only when the letter came, during that meeting, to me and to Arafat, did I ratify the Hebron agreement. Why is this important? Because from that moment on, I de facto put an end to the Oslo accords.”

U.S.-Israeli security ties grow amid diplomatic disputes
By Glenn Kessler, The Washington Post

This week, Israel successfully conducted a test of a new mobile missile-defense system designed to shield Israeli towns from small rockets launched from the Gaza Strip. When the “Iron Dome” system is fully deployed in the next year, about half the cost — $205 million — will be borne by U.S…

Syrian Envoy, Code Pink Take Jabs at Obama’s Israel Policy
By Jay Solomon

The State Department’s pointman on military affairs got a one-two-punch Friday, as the Obama administration seeks to mend a diplomatic rift with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The pugilists: Syria’s ambassador to the U.S., Imad Moustapha, and the left-wing activist group, Code Pink.

Andrew Shapiro, assistant secretary of State for political and military affairs, gave an expansive speech at the Brookings Institution Friday morning that highlighted the deepening military ties between the Obama administration and Netanyahu’s government.

“Israel is a vital ally and a cornerstone of our regional security commitments,” Shapiro said. He outlined how the Obama administration has approved more security-assistance to Israel — $2.8 billion for the current year and $3 billion for 2011 -– than any other American administration.

Shapiro’s words marked a sharp break from earlier comments by Obama administration officials that American soldiers in the Middle East were being targeted, in part, because of the failure to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. The comments have fueled a debate inside Washington in recent months over whether Israel is a strategic asset or liability for the U.S.

Shapiro sought to use his appearance to silence the debate. “We believe that…there are real strategic benefits to that relationship,” he said.

Still, critics of Israel emerged quickly to challenge what’s seen by some in the diplomatic community as a significant softening by the White House towards Israel in recent weeks. Earlier this month, President Barack Obama and Netanyahu met at the White House, shaking hands and smiling during a photo op and emphasizing the close ties between their countries.

Moustapha, Damascus’s long-serving envoy to Washington, challenged Shapiro on why the Obama administration remains quiet on Israel’s assumed nuclear-weapons capability. “I’m always puzzled, why is it that whenever an American official will discuss the Israeli military prowess and the cutting edge of warfare technology that Israel possesses, they will always, always never, never discuss the Israeli nuclear arsenal that actually exists?” Moustapha said.

Shapiro ducked the question with a joke: “I’m not going to be the first U.S. official to discuss, you know, Israeli nuclear” capabilities, he said.

An activist from Code Pink later pushed Shapiro on why the Obama administration refuses to hold discussions with the militant Palestinian group, Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip. Again, Shapiro ducked directly answering the question.

“As I mentioned before, from the very beginning — from the very first days of the administration, has been committed to a peace process between the Israelis and Palestinians which will lead to a two-state solution,” Shapiro said.

Sec. of State Clinton’s remarks At a Reception Hosted for the Jewish Community and Hannah Rosenthal, the State Department’s Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism

President Obama and I are determined to curb anti-Semitism and to work to prevent the isolation of Israel internationally. So we are sending Hannah all over the world. (Laughter.)

Syria PM says peace out of reach due to Israel stubbornness, violations
20:17, July 15, 2010

Syrian Prime Minister Muhammad Naji Otri on Thursday voiced pessimism over chances of achieving peace in the Middle East, saying peace became out of reach due to Israel’s stubbornness and violation of the international laws and charters.

Otri’ statements came during a speech to the 57th International Damascus Fair, which kicked off in the Syrian capital on Wednesday. The Syrian premier also slammed Israeli policies that included confiscating Palestinian lands, building settlements, imposing a siege on the Palestinians and attacking the international pro- Palestinians activists.

“Peace is a process based on the presence of two partners. It cannot be achieved by one side,” Otri said.

He also stressed that the economic blockade policy adopted against some counties has been futile and must be lifted due to its negative effects on these states’ peoples.

On Monday, Israel approved building new settlement in East Jerusalem, which outraged the Palestinians who want the city to be the capital of their future independent state.

The United States will continue to maintain Israel’s military advantage as well as protect it in the diplomatic arena, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said Wednesday, adding that the American commitment to Israel’s security was “not negotiable.”

U.S. UN envoy Susan Rice

Susan Rice Speaking during a reception for Israeli Ambassadors Gabriela Shalev and Daniel Carmon, held by the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in New York, Rice said the “United States of America remains fully and firmly committed to the peace and security of the State of Israel.”

“That commitment spans generations and political parties. It is not negotiable, and it never will be,” Rice added, saying the United States would “continue to strengthen Israel’s qualitative military advantage so that Israel can always defend itself, by itself, against any threat or possible combination of threats.”…

“But Gabi and I had the opportunity to work closely together on a series of important issues, from dealing with the deeply flawed Goldstone Report to seeing through the passage by the Security Council of the toughest sanctions resolution to date against Iran,” Rice said,…

New CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum Looks at “A Third Lebanon War” It discusses the most plausible scenarios for a renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon amidst rising tensions. By Daniel C. Kurtzer

Aleppo Soap Factory
Read the story in Aramco World

Syrian Police have been Told to Crack Down of Litterers

A Glittering Crossroads
2010-07-16, WSJ

By CHRISTIAN C. SAHNER Damascus, Syria It’s Friday and the weekly congregational prayer has just ended at the Umayyad Mosque, Syria’s most famous monument. As the faithful exit, they walk past an unassuming bit of masonry on the mosque’s southern … Syria is no ecumenical paradise, but it has a long legacy of religious diversity, which continues to this day. Christians still constitute at least 10% of the population, and President Bashar al-Assad and many government leaders are Alawis, a historically marginal sect of Shiite Islam.

Can banning the Niqab really work?

There is something ironic in Syria banning the niqab, or full head cover. When I first arrived in Damascus in 1981 to go to the University of Damascus and live in wahda al-uwla in the University City, the hijab, or scarf used by women to cover their hair, was banned. Many women defied the ban and wore it on campus anyway, but it was perhaps only 30% of all women. Today the percent of students that wear it is much higher, perhaps 70%. I am only guessing as it has been two years since I was on campus. In the 1960s, the headscarf was even rarer than it had become in the 1980s. In 1979, Rifaat al-Assad’s troops, saraya al-difaa,  had stopped cars in downtown Damascus and forced women wearing the hijab to remove it, causing an public uproar and much resentment.

The spread of Islamic clothing and outward expressions of piety has been steady and uninterrupted over the last four decades. It is not clear how the government can stop or reverse this trend. It is not restricted to Syria of course, but a phenomenon common to much of the Islamic world.

Many theories have been offered for why Islamic clothing has spread. Some of these theories are:  it is due to the failure of secularism and materialist ideologies, such as communism and socialism; a protest against corrupt and authoritarian rule; in Syria, it has been argued that it is a “Sunni” protest against the dominance of Alawis, who are viewed to be lax Muslims (Alawi women do not wear the headscarf as a rule). I have heard other explanations, as well: fashion, western clothing is too expensive, the growth in women’s literacy has led to greater piety and familiarity with religion.

I would be interested in hearing the explanations of SC readers.

School ban on all-covering veil raises nary a peep among activists in the Middle East
2010-07-15 – LA Times

Who knew right-wing Western politicians and the Syrian government had something in common?

The niqab, a face-covering veil worn by some Muslim women that has been maligned by many in Europe and the United States as a symbol of oppression and religious extremism, has been quietly outlawed in public schools by Syrian authorities in an effort to protect the nation’s nominal secularism.

Syria has a long and fraught history with Islamic opposition groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. But despite possibly forcing 1,200 women out of their jobs, no one is headed to the streets or has even launched a Facebook campaign yet. ….

Bassam Kadi, director of the Syrian Women Observatory, who explained his reasons for declining to take up the cause of the niqab after several of the affected women approached his organization for help.

“The niqab is not a Syrian tradition,” Kadi told the National. “It’s an imported symbol of religious extremism and contradicts the moderate Islam we know here. If [a woman] wears niqab, she is forcing an attitude on society. She is making a statement. That is not acceptable in a school.”

Although no formal announcement was made, local media began reporting the ban in June after women who wore the niqab began coming forward and complaining that they had been fired or reassigned to government offices where they would not come into contact with students.

“Education in Syrian schools follows an objective, secular methodology and this is undermined by wearing the face veil,” Education Minister Ali Saad reportedly said during a teachers’ syndicate meeting last month…..

Sweeping support to ban full Islamic veil in Western Europe as France votes on Burka ban, survey shows

….According to a survey conducted by the U.S.-based Pew Research Center in April and May this year, support for banning the burka is especially high in France, where a whopping 82% are in favor of outlawing it in public places such as schools, hospitals and government offices, while just 17% are opposed to such measures.

But the study also indicates that the garment, which has been the subject of much heated debate and controversy in Europe, is becoming increasingly unpopular in Germany, Britain, and Spain, where 71%, 62% and 59%, respectively, of those surveyed endorsed burka bans similar to the proposed French law in their own countries.

Americans, on the other hand, remain strongly opposed to such a law. Only 28% of those surveyed in the U.S. were in support of a burka ban while 65% disapproved. ….In Paris, one communist lawmaker reportedly compared the cloak to “walking coffins” while another from President Nicolas Sarkozy’s conservative party stressed that women who wear the burka must be liberated — even if it’s against their will….

Off the Wall writes:

One of our most miserable failures, as secular Arabs, was not to focus on a large marginalized segment of our society in the deep rural areas. So long as our cities looked more like western cities, with a tolerable amount of head-scarves, and so long as the rural only showed up in the commercial sector of our cities, or during their visits to city doctors, we thought that progress was happening as we had no idea, or we did not want to realize the extent of our failures in bringing true development, education, modernization, and progress into these rural areas. We may have brought electricity, built a few schools, facilitated rapid and excessive and unsustainable exploitation of land and water resources, but true enlightenment, i guess, we did not bring. The story is the same in most Arab “secular” republics.

With this failure, and as a significant segment of rural Arabs left their forgotten villages and came to the cities in search of better economic life, and in many cases, were even forced to do so through the extreme centralization prevalent in our societies, the cities started to reflect more of the true societal differences, and the more conservative leaning of the country, than they did when they only held about 15% of our “more affluent” westernized population. No secular Arab thinker dares to bring this issue, for it highlights our 70 year failure in affecting real, non-cosmetic progress. Tribal mentality remained the same, and it has by now spread into the cities where the narrow circles of old-urbanites , that used to be able to pretend that they represent the entire society, can no longer do so. Hence their nostalgia to the old days.

A population that remained more susceptible to wahabi ideas now constitutes a significant segment of Arab City dwellers, especially in Megacities, where traditionally, more cosmopolitan, enlightened strands of Islam was previously practiced. Ignoring the migrants after they migrated to the cities and leaving them to fend for themselves without real help exacerbated the problem and made more of the city now even more susceptible to Wahabi ideas. The same story can be told in countless Arab countries. It is not the Wahabi idea that is gaining, it is our failure to bring a large segment of our society into a level of development that can confront these ideas is the cause of what we now see.

Note: Mr. N3eyseh should try to explain the fact that the little desert principalities he so harshly criticizes have three (Qatar, Oman, and UAE) among the 32 least corrupt countries on earth, with two other monarchies (Jordan and Morocco) steadily moving up into the rank of 40s while the entirety of Arab “secular” republics are among the worst in corruption perception index with few of them going worst by the year. We failed, and we should face up. We need to re-invent Arab secularism and progressive thought to be more inclusive, less elitist, and truly committed to the human development of the Arab world.

Veiled Arguments
By RONALD P. SOKOL, July 14, 2010, International Herald Tribune

Two years ago, France’s highest court denied citizenship to a Muslim woman on the grounds that she had not assimilated into French society. I agreed to defend her before the European Court of Human Rights. I could have emphasized religious freedom; I raised the argument, but there was an easier way to show that the court had gone astray.

French law gives two tests of assimilation: knowledge of the language and absence of a criminal record. My client spoke fluent French and had no criminal record. But reports of interviews by social workers said that she had showed up wearing a niqab. On that basis, the court concluded that she practiced a form of religion incompatible with equal rights of men and women.

I argued that to allow an official to judge a failure to assimilate without providing criteria was to invite arbitrary decisions. The Human Rights Convention prohibits governments from acting arbitrarily. The case is currently pending before the European Court. ….

On Tuesday, the National Assembly passed the draft law by a vote of 335 to 1. It declares that “no one can, in the public space, wear clothing intended to hide the face.” The Senate is expected to pass the bill in September, when it will become law.

While the extreme marginality of the practice renders discussion somewhat ridiculous, the government’s insistence that the issue is vital makes it incumbent to show that its reasons do not resist analysis. Jean-François Copé, the majority leader in the French National Assembly and a small town mayor, argued in an opinion article on these pages (May 6) that “face covering poses a serious safety problem” and that “visibility of the face in the public sphere” is a fundamental principle.

The first argument is easily disposed of. There exists no evidence that women wearing the veil pose a security problem. Copé provides no evidence. The government’s own reports fail to show a public safety issue. In the total absence of any evidence, passing a law to provide protection where no protection is needed is either an exercise in absurdity or conceals a different agenda.

Copé’s second reason is more interesting. He asks, “How can you establish a relationship with a person who, by hiding a smile or a glance … refuses to exist in the eyes of others?” For the majority leader, “the niqab and burqa represent a refusal to exist as a person in the eyes of others.” In this he may be correct. But if a woman has a duty to show her face in public it must be because someone else has the right to see her face. That is the pretended “right” that Copé asserts.

I know of no such right. Copé will not find it in the Declaration of the Rights of Man, nor in the European Convention of Human Rights. When walking down the Champs Elysées, I have no right to see the face of passersby. Nor do I want such a right. While Copé may want a passer-by to give him a glance or a smile, he has no right to demand it.

Yes, the veil may be antisocial, but, fortunately, in a democratic, pluralistic society there is no legal duty to be social…..

Ronald P. Sokol is a lawyer in Aix-en-Provence, France.

Syrian President’s 10 Years In Power See Engagement With West
2010-07-14 03:26:38.780 GMT

DAMASCUS (AFP)–After years of enduring intense international pressure, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has engaged in a process of rapprochement with the West the results of which remain unclear.

Assad, who celebrates 10 years in power Saturday, re-opened a dialogue with Western nations by making concessions on Lebanon, the smaller western neighbor over which Damascus held sway for three decades, analysts said.

That enabled Assad to return to the international scene, as he demonstrated by attending a 2008 reception in Paris by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

And relations with the U.S. began to improve under the presidency of Barack Obama.

The rapprochement continues, but “mistrust remains” because of the close ties that Syria forged with Iran, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas movement, said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut.

And so Obama renewed the sanctions that have been in force against Syria since 2004, accusing Damascus of supporting “terrorist” organizations. And the new U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, still hasn’t arrived at his post because Republican opposition to Obama has blocked his confirmation. Lebanon remains the keystone of the thaw in relations between Syria and the West.

It “gives a regional depth” to Syria, which continues to maintain “an important influence” there through its allies, Hezbollah, the Christian leader Michel Aoun and the Baath party in Lebanon, Salem said.

In parallel, since December, Assad has twice hosted visits by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who had accused Damascus of being behind the 2005 assassination of his father, Rafiq Hariri. Assad also has maintained his country’s traditionally close ties with Iran, ignoring calls by the West to move away from Tehran and closer to Turkey.

Assad follows a “median policy,” and is not entirely in the “trenches” of the vehemently anti-Western and anti-Israeli Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Salem said. In May 2008, Assad began Turkish-mediated indirect talks with Israel over the Golan Heights, which Israel unilaterally annexed from Syria in 1981, and backs direct negotiations in the long run.

But there is still much do be done to consolidate Syria’s opening to the West, and Damascus still “is not out of the eye of the storm,” said analyst Riad Kahwaji.

The possibility of a U.S. or Israeli air strike against Iran, which denies accusations it is building a nuclear bomb, raise “question marks” about Syria’s position said Kahwaji, who is based in Dubai. “Would it (Syria) side with its Iranian ally? Could its leaders avoid a war?” asked Kahwaji, director of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, or INEGMA.

Information from U.S.and Israeli sources about the installation by Iran of a radar in Syria to detect a possible attack means that Syria would be “the first target,” Kahwaji said. Moreover, Syrian leaders haven’t hidden their disappointment over the bleak chances for Middle East peace under U.S. leadership, demonstrated by the stagnant negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians.

“When one does not obtain results, one is weak,” Assad said in Argentina earlier this month, during a Latin American tour. “Our experience with the United States is that they are unable to manage a peace process from the beginning to the end,” he said. At home in Syria, “the political hopes for reforms and democratization that were raised” by the accession of the young president, who was born in 1965, faded with the imprisonment of several opposition figures, Salem noted.

Syria is yet to play its cards
Ian Black, 2010-07-14 Guardian (GB):

Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president, can allow himself a moment of quiet self-congratulation this weekend when he marks 10 years in power. His father, Hafez, was a hard act to follow in a famously tough neighbourhood but Assad the son has gone a fair …

Israel Lawmakers Push Referendum For Golan, E Jerusalem
2010-07-14

JERUSALEM (AFP)–An Israeli parliamentary committee voted Wednesday in favor of a bill requiring a referendum prior to any possible withdrawal from east Jerusalem or the Golan Heights, a committee spokesman said. “The draft law on the referendum was approved Wednesday by five votes against two,” he told AFP. The bill had passed a first reading in parliament in 2008 and now has committee approval to go for the two more readings needed before it can become law.

It aims to make it more difficult for the government to cede territory, saying that a public referendum or a special majority of two thirds of lawmakers, would be necessary before withdrawal from land under Israeli sovereignty.

This refers to east Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, both of which Israel captured in the 1967 Six Day War and later annexed in moves not recognized by the international community. Syria has demanded the complete return of the Golan Heights as a condition for peace with Israel, while the Palestinians view East Jerusalem as the capital of their promised state.

Syria raises concern to Security Council over latest UN report
2010-07-14 19

UNITED NATIONS, Jul 14, 2010 (Xinhua via COMTEX) — Syria on Wednesday circulated a letter to the UN Security Council, raising concerns over the UN’s role with Syrian-Lebanese relations, citing their continued attempt to “interfere” in the heels of the newest report on the region. The letter, which was delivered by Syrian UN ambassador Bashar Ja’afari and dated July 7, comes in response to UN Secretary- General Ban Ki-moon’s latest report, which called upon Syria to ” cooperate” with such efforts with Lebanon to dismantle the Palestinian military bases that “straddle” the border of the two regions.

Ban’s report “continues the attempt to interfere in the development of Syrian-Lebanese relations,” said the letter, taking note that “continued interference” in the countries’bilateral relations would be “reprehensible.”…”The Syrian Arab Republic has nothing to do with the matter,” said the letter, reiterating the “competence” of the Lebanese government….

Syria Will Double Gasoline Imports in August on Tourism Demand
2010-07-14
By Brian Murphy

July 14 (Bloomberg) — Sytrol, Syria’s state-owned oil marketing company, will double gasoline imports next month as tourism boosts consumption, a company spokesman said.

Sytrol bought two 30,000-metric-ton cargoes of gasoline for delivery to the Mediterranean port of Banias in August, compared with one in July, the spokesman, who declined to be identified because of company policy, said today by phone from Damascus.

Syria consumes between 175,000 and 200,000 tons of gasolineeach month. It usually imports 30,000 tons to cover theshortfall from its two refineries, the spokesman said.

Turks in Tel Aviv Show Business Binds Israel to Muslim Ally in Gaza Crisis
By David Wainer and Ben Holland

July 14 (Bloomberg) — Five miles from the center of Tel Aviv, more than a dozen Turks wearing red shirts emblazoned with their national flag work to complete a 30-story residential tower.

Manager Nissim Gayus says it’s “business as usual,” six weeks after Israeli troops killed nine Turkish activists on an aid convoy bound for the Gaza Strip. While the raid has strained a political alliance of more than half a century, commercial ties between the countries survive, according to Gayus, who works at Ankara-based Yilmazlar Construction Group.

“The private sector just hasn’t been influenced at all,” Gayus said at Yilmazlar’s Ramat Gan office outside Tel Aviv. “We’re not feeling any damage in our projects.”

Via TWN via FLC

“… At the Nixon Center, it will be Chas Freeman vs. Rob Satloff on the topic: “Israel: Strategic Asset or Liability?”…”

One State/Two States: Rethinking Israel and Palestine
By Danny Rubinstein in Dissent.

Of the 300,000 Arabs of East Jerusalem, tens of thousands of them have applied to the Ministry of the Interior for full Israeli citizenship. In 1967, when East Jerusalem was annexed to Israel, its inhabitants were given “temporary resident” status, not citizenship. This resembles the U.S. green card, except that it does not serve as a way-station to full citizenship. Temporary residents have all the rights and obligations of a regular citizen—they pay taxes and receive the benefits of the social welfare system. But they cannot vote in parliamentary elections or carry an Israeli passport.

That they can’t vote for Knesset members has not bothered the Jerusalem Arabs, nor has the lack of a passport—the government gives travelers an Israeli “Laisser-Passer.” The problem, from their vantage point, is that they can lose their temporary resident status if they don’t continue to live in Jerusalem. Indeed, the Interior Ministry has taken away temporary resident cards from thousands of Jerusalem Arabs who moved to areas in the West Bank or who have lived overseas for a few years.

Hence the growing number of requests for full Israeli citizenship. There are many difficulties in the way. The most serious is that such a request is considered as collaboration with the enemy, the conqueror, and therefore a betrayal of Palestinian nationalism. That’s why so few applied in the years after the 1967 War—and most of them were Jerusalem Arabs who married Israeli Arabs. The PLO and the Palestinian Authority government in Ramallah have decided to fight the new trend. They sent representatives to the East Jerusalem office of the Interior Ministry and warned those standing on line not to request the citizenship application forms.

Despite the warnings, the number of applicants is growing. A spokesman for the ministry told me that in the last two years, about twelve thousand Palestinians from East Jerusalem have received Israeli citizenship. What is most significant here is that there isn’t any embarrassment about applying for it. A Palestinian journalist told me, “Not only are they not embarrassed, they are proud that they have succeeded in getting Israeli citizenship.” This is the strongest possible example of the low point that Palestinian nationalism has reached—at least in the eyes of the Palestinians of Jerusalem. They now believe that the Israeli (Jewish) presence in the eastern part of the city is so powerful that it cannot be shaken or dislodged. The city won’t be divided, and so they are adapting to a situation that will lead in the end to a single state.
In international diplomacy there is a pervasive idea that it is possible and necessary to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza that will exist side by side with Israel. Many Israelis and Palestinians want this and believe in it. But the forces working against this possibility are many and powerful. Israeli governments have enabled the settlement of over half a million Jews beyond the 1967 borders. This represents almost 10 percent of the Jews in Israel. About 300,000 of them live in settlements in the West Bank and about 200,000 are in the Jewish neighborhoods of East Jerusalem. There are those among them who will fight with all their strength to prevent an Israeli withdrawal and the establishment of a Palestinian state. But what is no less important is that on the Palestinian side as well a new situation has emerged. National unity has dissolved, the national movement has atrophied and declined, and the idea has become acceptable that if there won’t be two states for two peoples, it is better that there be one state.

2008

Specter and Assad meet, discuss peace broker role
By Sarah Freishtat · July 12, 2010

WASHINGTON (JTA) — Sen. Arlen Specter in a Damascus meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad discussed a role as a peace mediator between Syria and Israel. JTA confirmed last weekend’s meeting, which was reported this week in the Israeli and Turkish media, with sources who helped organize the event.

Specter (D-Pa.), who is Jewish and has longstanding ties with Syria, first flew to Israel to see if Israeli officials wanted to convey any messages to Assad.

According to Ynet, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon told Specter that Israel was ready to resume talks without preconditions, that it did not plan to launch attacks on its northern border and that a Syria-brokered release of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held captive in the Gaza Strip, would be a goodwill gesture. Hamas, the terrorist group that controls Gaza, is close to the Assad regime.

Specter then flew to Damascus, where he met with Assad. There was no official word about the meeting. It’s not clear who initiated the Assad-Specter meeting. His pro-Israel credentials are impeccable, but he has always counseled an openness to Syria. …

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and author of the Syria Comment newsletter, said Specter is a natural choice for mediator because he has visited Damascus nearly 20 times during his time in office and he is Jewish. Landis said Syria wants to use diplomatic means to help stabilize and improve its economy and get back the Golan.

“Syria is finding out if there’s anything left in the Obama administration that could be useful to them,” Landis said.

Eyal Zisser, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, said the status of Specter’s Israeli interlocutor — Ayalon, a deputy minister with no power — meant the Israelis did not take seriously the prospect of renewed talks.

“He’s just a respected American senator who comes to Syria often,” Zisser said. “Unfortunately there is nothing new there.”

U.S. asks Syria to support Palestinian-Israeli direct talks
ATFP World Press Roundup Article from Xinhua, July 12, 2010

The U.S. administration demanded Syria not to hinder the Palestinian National Authority’s (PNA) tendency towards direct negotiations with Israel, local news website Syria Now reported on Monday. A well-informed source confirmed that Washington asks Damascus, through U.S. Senator Arlen Specter, not to hinder the PNA tendency towards direct negotiation at a time when the Palestinian side showed hesitation over the results of the indirect talks and Arab League chief Amr Moussa declared that those talks have failed….

From the latest report by Conflicts Forum

Palestinian sources tell us that the US ‘proximity talks’ are stuck on the borders issue with Israel demanding land swaps on a 5 – 1 basis in Israel’s favour, and the US suggesting a 3 -1 basis. This represents a regression rather than progression: Israel had earlier accepted a 1:1 basis. It means that that the talks have achieved almost nothing of substance.

Stephen M. Walt, “With friends like these. . .” Foreign Policy

Syrian secularism: a model for the Middle East: Westerners don’t see that Syria’s embrace of diversity is a crucial bulwark against extremism.
By Ahmed Salkini / July 13, 2010 Christian Science Monitor

….Secularism is often defined as “indifference to or rejection or exclusion of religion and religious considerations.” Syria defines it differently – not in terms of “rejection,” or even “tolerance,” but in terms of “embracing” all religions and “taking pride” in a diverse heritage.

While some countries in the Middle East tout themselves as a state for one religion (the Jewish State), Syria prides itself on being a state for all religions – and no religion. It is this formula that defines the true Syrian identity.

The Syria I grew up in embraced everyone. My own father is a decorated veteran of the 1973 war against Israel. Yet, when his first child was born after the war – and after four previous heartbreaking miscarriages – it was a Syrian Jewish doctor in whose hands he entrusted my life. I owe my life to that doctor, who saved me after a complication during infancy that nearly resulted in my death.

My father was no exception. Syria’s Jewish community was historically among the most successful, with clients and friends from across Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious social fabric.

The Syrian Christian community, one of the oldest in the world, is such an integral part of our society that Pope Benedict XVI extolled Syria as “an example of coexistence and tolerance to the world.” Indeed, there are more than 13 Christian denominations in Syria.

Still, our history is not one of unscathed harmonious coexistence. We have seen our share of sporadic internal conflict. Such incidents, however, were anomalies that said less about Syria and more about the human tendency to act according to brute instinct during times of tension…..

Securing secular strongholds, such as Syria, is imperative not only for the peoples of the region, but also to the national interests of the US, Europe, and all major powers…. Syria faces several challenges, including retrieving the Israeli-occupied Golan and improving the standard of living for all Syrians. Achieving both is a matter of time: Freeing the Golan is inevitable, and the economy is on a strong upswing. Losing our secular identity to the forces of extremism, though, would be an irreversible and existential peril.

POMED writes:

U.S. Calls On Syria To Honor Human Rights Obligations: The White House released a statement by National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer condemning Syria’s conviction and sentencing of two prominent human rights lawyers: Haitham Maleh on July 4, and Mohannad al-Hassani on June 23. The statement also condemned the re-arrest and charging of Ali Abdullah, a rights activist and member of the Damascus Declaration’s National Council. Sec. Clinton issued parallel remarks condemning Maleh’s conviction, stating that the ruling “is an example of Syria’s failure to comply with minimum international human rights standards.” Both sets of comments called on Syria to release its political prisoners.

Syrian president to mark 10 years in power
Some economic reforms achieved but need for political and social improvements
Alistair Lyons, Reuters, July 12, 2010

Although Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has managed to liberalise his country’s stilted economy to some extent, he has not been as successful with its politics.
His first decade in power, a milestone he will pass on Saturday, is ending more repressively than it began….A military court gave 79-year-old lawyer Haitham Al Maleh a three-year jail term last week for “weakening national morale”. He was arrested last year after renewing calls to dismantle the 1963 emergency law that bans all opposition to the Baath Party.

In June, another lawyer was jailed on the same charges and a writer was re-arrested a day after completing 2 1/2 years in prison. Five opposition figures were freed after serving similar sentences. Former parliamentarian Riad Seif remains behind bars.

“Assad is sending a message that he doesn’t care about human rights and political reforms in Syria and that he doesn’t think the international community cares or will sanction him on that,” said Nadim Houry, Human Rights Watch Director in Beirut.

Damascus has acquired a glossy appearance in the last 10 years, with a sprinkling of boutique hotels, chic cafes and shopping malls, along with private banks and construction projects….

“The government undoubtedly assumes that by keeping a tight rein on the people and maintaining clear red lines, it will face less trouble in the long run and fewer people will go to jail,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at Oklahoma University.

“Syria is surrounded by countries that have been plagued by long civil wars and tough insurgencies,” he said, citing Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “Syrian security has concluded that it cannot risk relaxing controls.”…..Assad, who survived intense US pressure under ex-President George W. Bush, has emerged unbowed and feeling vindicated.

“The international pressure on Syria was never about human rights,” Houry said. “In the Bush years there was clearly more criticism of its human rights record, but it was often part of a campaign that had broader interests and the Syrians knew that.”

Upswing in Assad’s fortunes

In the last two years, Assad has forged closer ties with Iran, Turkey and Qatar, mended fences with Saudi Arabia and revived much of Syria’s influence in Lebanon, keeping links with Hezbollah there and with the Palestinian Hamas movement.

US President Barack Obama has sought to engage Syria and enlist its help in stabilising Iraq and in regional peace moves, although Congress has yet to confirm an ambassador to Damascus.

Regardless of which American President is in power, Assad seems in no hurry to ease up on his domestic critics, who pose no credible challenge to his now well-entrenched authority.

“In reality, Syria’s touch regarding human rights is not a function of administrations in Washington,” Murhaf Jouejati, a scholar at the Middle East Institute in the US capital, said.
“Rather, Syria’s organising principle seems to be: it’s better to be feared than to be loved. More economic space will not necessarily translate into improved human rights.”….

“The Syrian regime argues that it provides precious security and stability and that it has protected its minorities and secular freedoms better then other Arab states,” Landis said.

“It is hard to know whether these arguments are real and based on a judicious assessment of local realities, or simply self-serving justifications for clinging to power.”

Getting the Americans Off Your Back

….Palestinians are insisting that talks pick up where they left off. They also want Israel to halt settlement activity in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

It’s unclear if they’ll get either. Netanyahu, who has been calling for Palestinians to resume talks, is signaling a desire to revisit some issues and wants no “preconditions” to the talks. That makes Palestinians wonder whether Netanyahu is ready to make a deal or just wants to restart talks to get the Americans and international community off his back.

Israeli Finance Ministry explains recent IDF-sourced Hezbollah stories
July 11, 2010 by Didi Remez (Thank you Didi. This explains a lot. The Syrians interpreted this softening the ground for a possible strike on Hizbullah.)

Why the sudden spate of Israeli-sourced publications on Hezbollah’s military power?

On Wednesday (July 7 2010) this one, in the Jerusalem Post, elicited a sarcastic Tweet from Foreign Policy’s Marc Lynch:

Israel’s shocking discovery of Hezballah presence in….Lebanon. Believe it or not!

This morning (July 11 2010), Maariv provided a mundane (by Israeli standards) explanation from the Finance Ministry:

“it’s interesting how every time the military budget is on the table, they release from the stocks Hezbollah’s missile array and expose sensitive classified material”

[Front-page teaser] The Finance Ministry accuses: “The IDF is using Hezbollah in the battle over the budget”

[Headline] Finance Ministry: Barak most expensive Defense Minister ever

[Sub-headline] The battle for the defense budget goes ad hominem; senior Finance Ministry officials: The IDF is even using Hezbollah to prevent cuts

Ben Caspit, Maariv, July 11 2010 [page 7; Hebrew original here and at bottom of post]

“Ehud Barak is the most expensive defense minister in Israel’s history”; “The IDF is impertinently disregarding all of the Brodet Commission’s findings, while deceiving the public”; “it’s interesting how every time the military budget is on the table, they release from the stocks Hezbollah’s missile array and expose sensitive classified material,” — these are just some of the harsh statements that were heard over the weekend among senior Finance Ministry officials and directed against the IDF and the security establishment.

A brutal struggle over the Defense Ministry’s budget is expected next week…..

Israeli Military Finds Flotilla Killings Justified
By: Ethan Bronner | The New York Times

Israel may put limits on citizenship for converts
(By Janine Zacharia, The Washington Post)

JERUSALEM — An Israeli parliamentary committee on Monday advanced a bill that could lead to lack of recognition for conversions to Judaism performed by rabbis from the Reform and Conservative movements. …. The bill “delegitimizes most of North American Jewry” and brings back the question of “who has the authority to determine someone’s Jewish identity,” Wernick added, noting that 85 percent of American Jewry is affiliated with non-Orthodox branches of Judaism.

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordon could lose its pecuniary aid from the United States should it continue to enhance its nuclear program without cooperation with Israel, Israeli news source Ynet reported.

Amman ignored Israeli requests to be involved in the extraction and enrichment of uranium which prompted the threat from Washington. The U.S. and Jordan discussed Jordan’s nuclear plan for six months, but the Jordanians were unable to obtain US approval. … the Jordanian economy is hinged on American aid which limits its ability to hold its ground in talks with Washington. This year, the US transferred at least $665 million during the first half of the year, over half of which was for financial aid and the rest for military aid. King Abdullah condemned Israel for impeding his country’s efforts in its nuclear program last month. The king told the Wall Street Journal that France and South Korea were being persuaded by the Israeli government to not sell nuclear technologies to Jordan. He added that Israeli-Jordanian relations have sunk to a point they have not been since the two countries signed a peace agreement after being in a state of war for nearly half a century.

Swoop claims that one senior US official described the outcome of the meeting between Obama and Netanyahu as a “ritualized reversal” of his Middle East policy. The article adds: “US officials tell us privately that they are deeply pessimistic about any immediate advances in the peace process.”

Gideon Levy agrees with this assessment of the Obama-Netanyahu meeting. He writes:

If there remained any vestiges of hope in the Middle East from Barack Obama, they have dissipated; if some people still expected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to lead a courageous move, they now know they made a mistake (and misled others ).

Gideon Levy has also written a wonderful article entitled, “A Peace Crime.” In which he explains that Assad has stated very clearly that Syria wants peace, but Israel will not say yes and test him. Why? Levy argues it is because Israel would prefer to keep the Golan. I copy the article below. The comment section is interesting because so many Israelis argue against him, calling Assad a bad person, calling Syria a bad country, claiming Israel deserves the land, arguing that it was Syria’s fault for losing it, that Israel won it fairly, that it needs it for defense, etc.

Turkey is scheduled to get a new US ambassador. This is an occasion for a good fight in the halls of the Obama administration. Ambassador Ricciardone’s name has been put forward. The neocons want to sink his nomination because they want Obama to take a hard line on Turkey and punish it for breaking with Israel. Josh Rogin of Foreign Policy explains that Obama’s people will probable waffle, as it is doing with Syria, and allow Ricciardone to languish. He writes,

the main question will be whether the Obama administration is willing to make that case and use some of its political capital to push the nomination through. They haven’t always been eager to do so, as with the nomination of Robert Ford to be ambassador to Syria. Ford is well-liked by everybody, but the administration hasn’t been active in pressing for his confirmation, potentially because it isn’t eager to have a public debate about its policy of engaging Syria — which has yet to show results.

A peace crime
What more can Assad say that he hasn’t already? How long must he knock in vain on Israel’s locked door?
By Gideon Levy

It couldn’t have been spelled out more explicitly, clearly and emphatically. Read and judge for yourselves: “Our position is clear: When Israel returns the entire Golan Heights, of course we will sign a peace agreement with it …. What’s the point of peace if the embassy is surrounded by security, if there is no trade and tourism between the two countries? That’s not peace. That’s a permanent cease-fire agreement. This is what I say to whoever comes to us to talk about the Syrian track: We are interested in a comprehensive peace, i.e., normal relations.”

Who said this to whom? Syrian President Bashar Assad to the Lebanese newspaper As-Safir last week. These astounding things were said to Arab, not Western ears, and they went virtually unnoticed here. Can you believe it?

What more can Assad say that he hasn’t already? How many more times does he have to declare his peaceful intentions before someone wakes up here? How long must he knock in vain on Israel’s locked door? And if that were not enough, he also called on Turkey to work to calm the crisis with Israel so it can mediate between Israel and Syria.

Assad’s words should have been headline news last week and in the coming weeks. Anwar Sadat said less before he came to Israel. In those days we were excited by his words, today we brazenly disregard such statements. This leads to only one conclusion: Israel does not want peace with Syria. Period. It prefers the Golan over peace with one of its biggest and most dangerous enemies. It prefers real estate, bed and breakfasts, mineral water, trendy wine and a few thousand settlers over a strategic change in its status.

Just imagine what would happen if we emerged from the ruins of our international status to sign a peace agreement with Syria – how the international climate regarding us would suddenly change, how the “axis of evil” would crack and Iran’s strongholds weaken, how Hezbollah would get a black eye, more than in all the Lebanon wars….

True, they say the Mossad chief thinks that Assad will never make peace because the whole justification for his regime is based on hostility toward Israel. Our experts are never wrong, but similar things were said about Sadat. True, Assad also said other things. Other? Not really. He said that if he does not succeed through peace, he will try to liberate the Golan through resistance. Illogical? Illegitimate? …

A responsible neighbor
First of all, by easing the blockade of Gaza after the flotilla incident, Israel admitted in retrospect that its previous policy was wrong. No international commission will justify the blockade after Netanyahu has renounced it.
By Aluf Benn, 07.07.10, Haaretz

My man of the week is Syrian President Bashar Assad. His call to calm the crisis in Israeli-Turkish relations seems like a serious attempt to cool the mutual invective between Ankara and Jerusalem. “If the relationship between Turkey and Israel is not renewed, it will be very difficult for Turkey to play a role in negotiations to revive the Middle East peace process,” Assad said on Monday in Spain. And he added that failure to mend these ties would “without doubt affect the stability in the region.”

Assad’s balanced position was a surprise. Instead of getting up and cursing Israel for its “aggression” against a Gaza-bound flotilla in May, he acted like a responsible neighbor by trying to calm the dispute. His remarks are being interpreted as a diplomatic warning to Turkey’s leaders: If you continue quarreling with Israel, you will lose your influence and encourage the extremists who undermine stability. Cool it.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, have turned out to be talented diplomats. The flotilla that set out for the Gaza Strip under their aegis resulted in the easing of Israel’s blockade on Gaza. And Davutoglu’s recent meeting with Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer did more to undermine the unity of Israel’s governing coalition than any other incident to date. Even U.S. President Barack Obama, for all his efforts, was unable to so threaten the stability of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rule….

Young Hezbollah supporters holding mock ups of Katyusha rockets in front of a portrait of group leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. Photo by: AP

At an undisclosed site, the Syrians have erected a factory that produces M-600 missiles, capable of hitting almost any target in Israel. According to the French newsletter Intelligence Online, the factory is a joint Iranian-Syrian venture. Iran funded construction of the site, and supplied the assembly line, the technology and the war doctrine. In return, Syria is committed to provide half of the factory’s production – that is, half the missiles – to Hezbollah…..

During [the 2006] war, Israel bombed Lebanon with 7,000 tons of explosives, while the explosives from the approximately 4,000 rockets and missiles Hezbollah fired on Israel added up to “only” 28 tons.

“It is clear that in the next war we will look back and miss the 2006 conflict, in terms of the amount of explosives that will fall on Israel,” says a senior intelligence source. The question is whether this war will take place, when and with whom.

While experts say Hezbollah is preparing itself for war with Israel, there are no signs that it intends to start one any time soon. In fact, the Second Lebanon War limited Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah’s room to maneuver. The political and military leadership in Iran was angered by Hezbollah’s decision to kidnap Israeli soldiers in the ambush that kicked off the war with Israel. The Iranians did not want war at that point, and believed Nasrallah was mistaken in approving the kidnapping without first consulting them. As a result, they took away his right to decide whether to attack Israel in the future.

A more interesting question being debated by Israeli intelligence is just where Syrian President Bashar Assad is heading. This is an issue of intentions, which intelligence – all intelligence services – always wonder about. Assad’s capabilities can be quantified: Exact and up-to-date information can be acquired (Israel does this successfully ) about the number of Syrian soldiers, the structure of the army and its weapons, its theories of war and so on. It is much harder to determine the intentions of the Syrian leader, especially because they are the decisions of one man or no more than a small forum made up of army commanders and advisors.

Israeli intelligence is divided into optimists and pessimists. At the head of the optimist pack is Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, head of the IDF research department, who believes that if Assad receives the Golan Heights back from Israel, he will consent to a peace agreement and everything it implies – including open borders, limited commercial relations and diplomatic ties. Outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi believes there is an opportunity here for a diplomatic process, and that everything must be done to pursue it.

In contrast, retiring Mossad chief Meir Dagan holds that Assad will never agree to peace with Israel, because hostility toward Israel is what justifies his rule. The outgoing director of Military Intelligence, Amos Yadlin, feels Assad is still uncertain about which path to take, although he thinks the Syrian leader’s behavior in recent years shows that he is tending to distance himself from peace, just as Dagan contends. Israeli intelligence describes this as “strengthening self-confidence to the point of insolence.”

‘Told you so’

Before the United Staes invaded Iraq in 2003, Assad’s advisors suggested that he support President George W. Bush, just as his father and predecessor Hafez Assad joined the senior Bush’s coalition during the first Gulf War. Bashar Assad refused. Today he may feel this was a good bet and could tell his advisors, “I told you so.” He did not join the American war, and still he is courted by the U.S. administration.

In contrast with both his father’s stance and his own earlier positions, Assad is stiffening his demands. He is not prepared to forgo an alliance with Hezbollah and Iran, even in return for a peace agreement with Israel. Still, despite everything, he continues to act with great care and tries not to break the rules.

“What does Assad want?” the intelligence community asks. “That’s a tough question,” they answer themselves.

Troops sent to Lebanon’s south
(By Bill Varner, The Washington Post)

UNITED NATIONS — Lebanon is sending as many as 5,000 additional soldiers to the country’s south after clashes between civilians and United Nations troops and Israel’s warning that Hezbollah is preparing for a new war there.

Obama-Netanyahu Meeting 5: A Victory for Both Sides and New Energy To Move the Peace Process Forward
Steven Cohen, Hffington Post

Both leaders decided to give up their attempts to intimidate each other and, instead, to cooperate in order to achieve some results while the two men are still in office. Both leaders reached the conclusion that the special relationship between their two countries… must be bolstered…. I expect that direct talks will resume before the 2010 United Nations General Assembly in September. It would be made possible, not only by the economic improvements in Palestinian life engendered by effective Palestinian leadership, but also by an undeclared continuation of the Israeli settlement freeze without further provocations against the Palestinians in Jerusalem.

Obama Says Chances for Peace in the Middle East are Slim

“Obama indicated that chances for peace in the Middle East are slim during his interview on Israeli TV 2. He said that Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu understands this.

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Meeting in 2008

Jewish senator may mediate Israel-Syria talks
Roni Sofer, Published: 07.10.10, Ynet

President Assad asks Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter to mediate new peace negotiations, Jerusalem officials believe move was spurred by severe US sanctions on Iran. Ayalon: Talks must begin without preconditions.

A covert message was conveyed this weekend from Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon to Syrian President Bashar Assad through US Senator Arlen Specter, Ynet learned Saturday. Israeli officials believe the Syrian president’s timing was not accidental, and that the country is altering its position on talks with Israel following new sanctions on Iran.

Ayalon told Specter that Israel wanted peace, but that negotiations must begin with no preconditions. He said Israel would agree to hold the talks “anytime, anywhere”, either public or covert. When asked about a possible military conflict this summer, Ayalon told the senator Israel was not planning to attack its northern neighbors.

Anthony Cordesman gives a bit of ground truth about the Iran fear factory – bless his heart.

The Conventional Military Balance in the Gulf
Anthony Cordesman, July 9, 2010

The CSIS Middle East Program hosted Dr. Anthony Cordesman on June 24, 2010, for a Gulf Roundtable discussing the military capabilities of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries – Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman – in the face of challenges from Iran.

In a conventional war against Iran, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries would almost certainly win, according to Dr. Anthony Cordesman, the Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. Cordesman offered his assessment of Iran’s military capabilities and potential responses to them at a Gulf Roundtable hosted by the CSIS Middle East Program on June 24, 2010.

According to Cordesman, the GCC countries outspend the Islamic Republic on defense by a factor of ten, and they enjoy U.S. military support. The real threat to Iran’s neighbors, and to their unfettered export of oil, lies in Iran’s asymmetric warfare capabilities.

Although Iran boasts a robust military inventory, Cordesman asserted that a large portion of the country’s armor, land-based air defenses, and naval equipment date back to the 1970s and or is no match for the GCC’s superior arsenal. The mix of old equipment and less capable Russian and Chinese weapons not only presents significant logistical problems on the battlefield, but helps negate Iran’s comparative advantage in manpower. Cordesman noted that “40 to 60 percent” of Iranian planes are non-operational and that artillery must be towed from one position to another. Despite the Iranian government’s claim to be developing new weapons – and its occasional arms deals with Russia and China – Cordesman judged that, in reality, the Iranian military is modernizing at an “extremely slow” rate.

Regarding Iran’s missile capabilities, he claimed that “almost a cottage industry” exists in exaggerating the Iranian missile threat. Cordesman judged that this threat could become extremely serious over time, but that the accuracy and lethality of Iranian missiles was far worse than many news reports suggest, rendering them useless for most military uses other than as terrorist weapons.

By contrast, he said, Iran has devoted extensive resources to developing its asymmetric warfare capabilities to compensate for its depreciating conventional military infrastructure. The government has significantly modernized its 20,000-man-strong International Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval branch and given it principal responsibility for operations inside the Gulf. (The regular navy operates principally outside the Gulf). The IRGC has a wide variety of assets at its disposal to threaten shipping lanes, including large-scale mining warfare capability, missile patrol boats, and a fleet of heavily armed attack vessels. Given the world’s dependence on oil imports from the Gulf, Cordesman judged that containing these threats will be a long-term strategic consideration for both the United States and its GCC allies.

Cordesman cited Iran’s ability to wage indirect, proxy warfare as another key component of its asymmetric threat. While the Al Quds force receives much of the credit for running training camps for unconventional warfare and aiding terrorist groups throughout the region, Cordesman noted that Iranian diplomats and intelligence people are also engaged in these activities. Iranian financial and military support has perpetuated the existence of Hamas, Hizbullah, and Iraq-based military groups, thereby complicating U.S. efforts to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and stabilize Iraq.

In addition to increasing its regional clout and influence, Iran has also invested “massive” resources into strengthening its internal security. The aftermath of the June 2009 elections demonstrated these paramilitary forces’ ability to effectively mobilize and quell internal opposition.

Perhaps the most menacing manifestation of Iran’s desire to tip the regional military balance in its favor is its pursuit of nuclear capability. Cordesman cautioned that the United States should prepare to cope with a nuclear Iran, but questioned how soon Tehran will be able to convert its nuclear program into an operational threat. Given the poor quality and upkeep of Iran’s conventional military equipment and infrastructure, he also suggested that it would take time and extensive testing to make an Iranian-produced nuclear weapon reliable and effective.

Iran’s asymmetric warfare capabilities threaten GCC countries despite their superior conventional weaponry and U.S. military backing. Cordesman contended that this is partially due to structural and coordination problems within the GCC itself. He characterized the Council’s efforts at military interoperability as “little more than empty rhetoric,” citing its lack of mission focus and poor coordination. In particular, most GCC countries prefer to cooperate with the United States, France, and the United Kingdom instead of each other, which hampers their interoperability. On a tactical level, Cordesman noted that the Gulf countries have flawed training and integration schemes for their forces; he highlighted that they often train their pilots to be “knights of the air” asopposed to “fighters in an air force.”

Despite these flaws, he posited that the United States and its GCC allies have tools at their disposal to contain Iran’s threat. He recommended that the United States continue to promote intra-GCC cooperation through continued advisory missions and high-level delegations. Additionally, he argued, the United States should continue to maintain a strong military presence in the Gulf and provide logistical support and training to GCC forces. This requires maintaining its military bases in the Gulf, upgrading GCC countries’ defense systems, and providing counterterrorism support and intelligence. He maintained that these measures would both act as deterrents against low-level Iranian acts of aggression and also reassure GCC states that they can count on the United States should Iran overstep its bounds.

To cope with Iran’s nuclear program, Cordesman advised that the United States should continue to support sanctions against Iran and closely monitor the development of the country’s nuclear program through intelligence and satellite imagery. Given that Iran has close to seventy nuclear facilities – many in northwest Iran and many still likely undiscovered – he cautioned that a U.S.- or Israeli-led military strike is likely to fail to comprehensively destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program. He said that the best military option would be what the Obama administration called “extended regional deterrence” and strong missile defenses.

A detailed assessment of the Gulf military balance, entitled “The Gulf Military Balance in 2010: An Overview,” is HERE.

Syria’s ruler marks decade in power
By Roula Khalaf,  July 8 2010 19:30

Staying in power for a decade is no achievement in the Middle East, where authoritarian rule keeps leaders going for a lifetime. In the case of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, however, even a shorter tenure was never guaranteed…..

The safer environment that Mr Assad faces removes an main excuse for inaction on the domestic front. “He has emerged unscathed from very difficult circumstances,” says Jon Alterman, Middle East director at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

“The great disappointment is that after a lot of optimism that Syria’s future would not look like the past, the future does look like the past, with low economic growth, lack of personal freedom and a government that is an obstacle to progress.”……

rue, the president and his glamorous wife, Asma, project the image of a modern couple. And Damascus has developed a more cosmopolitan feel, with new construction, restaurants and smart boutique hotels. Limited economic liberalisation, meanwhile, has opened up the socialist economy to private banking and eased foreign exchange controls. But fundamental barriers to investment – corruption, inefficiency and the heavy hand of the state – remain.

“The business environment is off-putting for many significant investors,” says Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group, a think-tank. “But the expectations of society are higher in as much as Syria achieved some success on the foreign policy front, so the argument saying not much can be done to improve living standards because of outside pressure doesn’t work quite as well.”

The consolidation of Mr Assad’s rule also has not translated into a greater willingness to tolerate opposition. Only last week, Haitham Maleh, a 78-year-old human rights lawyer, was jailed for three years for “weakening national morale”.

“There’s always been a question about whether Assad is a true reformer hampered by an old guard or he only talked reform at first to gain some legitimacy,” says Nadim Houry of Human Rights Watch. “The record after 10 years is that he’s not truly committed to internal reform.”

Syria Offers 40% of Land for Oil, Gas Exploration, Thawra Says
2010-07-09 By Zainab Fattah

July 9 (Bloomberg) — Syria’s government has offered 74,000 square-kilometers of land, or 40 percent of the country, to international oil and gas companies for exploration, Al Thawra newspaper reported, citing the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resouces. In addition to new exploration on the land, the ministry is seeking the restoration of old wells where production ceased in the past several years, the newspaper reported. About 10 oil companies are currently exploring sites in Syria, including Royal Dutch Shell Plc and PetroCanada, although production is yet to start, the newspaper said.

Syrian Households to Receive SYP 10,000 Heating subsidy (Syria Report)
The new plan to help Syrian households pay for their heating bills has been passed into Law by the Syrian President.

Syria Sees Slight Improvement in Corruption Index (Syria Report)
Syria’s ranking in the latest edition of the Corruption Perception Index published by Transparency International has improved for the first time in more than five years.

Army Commander Jean Qahwaji said the the Lebanese Army is not in south Lebanon to ‘protect Israel’ as he divulged that the LAF receives from the UNIFIL, detailed lists of ‘premises to be searched’. As to the ‘source’ of these lists, Qahwaji said it bluntly that these were ‘Israeli lists’…. It is the first and strongest rebuke by the Head of the Lebanese Army of UNIFIL’s tactics …

Lebanese Shi’ite women marching in Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah’s

Octavia, Frances, and the Late, Great Ayatollah Fadlallah
Sharmine Narwani
Senior Associate, St. Antony’s College, Oxford University, July 9 2010

Hezbollah grows up
By Avi Issacharoff, 9 July 2010

Four years after the Second Lebanon War, the Shi’ite group has managed to rebuild its military capabilities across from Israel’s northern frontier. Still, most sources say it’s not interested in another round of fighting.

Media group urges Syria to drop journalists’ case
Published: 07.10.10

A press freedom group urged Syria to drop criminal defamation charges against two journalists it said could face three years in jail over their reports into alleged corruption at a state fertilizer company. The Committee to Protect Journalists said Bassam Ali and Suhaila Ismail investigated misuse of funds at the Public Company for Fertilizers in Syria. The group said that after their reports were published in 2005 and 2006, the minister of industry fired the company director, who then filed a lawsuit against the journalists for defamation and “resisting the socialist system”. (Reuters)

Qifa Nabki has published an interview with me that is generating some discussion: Syrian-Israeli Peace: A Conversation With Joshua Landis

Here are two cultural stories of interest:

Syrian Cinema: Thumbing Its Nose at the Censor
Susanne Schanda, editing by Lewis Gropp/Qantara.de

Politically explosive films and television series from Syria are storming the Arab market. Now the film “The Long Night” – the first Syrian feature film to highlight the fate of political prisoners – has become ensnared in the censorship process. It is nevertheless reaching its audience via satellite television – even in Syria. Susanne Schanda reports that although the censors were full of praise for “The Long Night”, they passed it on to a higher authority for consideration.

"Then suddenly he's out on the street": "The Long Night" deals with members of the released prisoner's family, who have come to an arrangement with the regime and made their compromises. The film by Haitham Hakki, one of Syria's best-known filmmakers, does not focus on prison conditions or the arbitrary nature of detentions. It deals instead with members of the released prisoner's family. The unexpected release of Karim throws their lives into confusion, and triggers recriminations and feelings of remorse. ...Companies run by Saudis are the most liberal in the Arab world. "Those who invest large amounts of money want to see profit, and ideological questions are of secondary importance," he says soberly.

______

"The censors can't shut down the universe": Syrian scriptwriter and filmmaker Haitham Hakki

Four men in blue prison gear with unkempt grey hair and stubble sit in their cell drinking tea. The light is crepuscular, the plaster is peeling off the walls. They have been behind bars for 20 years for criticising the regime. Karim is the oldest, he stays lying down on his metal bed and has his tea brought to him. He is resigned to his fate. Then the heavy iron door swings open, and out of all the men it is Karim who is ordered to pack his things and go with the guards. He is being released.

The opening scenes of “The Long Night” are almost wordless, and there is no music to break the silence. We watch as Karim washes himself, as the guards shave him and cut his hair. Then suddenly he’s out on the street, in a shirt and suit, a leather bag in his hand – he sniffs the air, and takes in his surroundings with amazement.

The film by Haitham Hakki, one of Syria’s best-known filmmakers, does not focus on prison conditions or the arbitrary nature of detentions. It deals instead with members of the released prisoner’s family, who have come to an arrangement with the regime and made their compromises. The unexpected release of Karim throws their lives into confusion, and triggers recriminations and feelings of remorse.

“I am concerned with the human drama, the film does not operate with political slogans,” says Haitham Hakki in an interview with Qantara.de in Damascus. He wrote the screenplay himself. Once this was approved by the censors, the film could be made in Syria with Syrian actors, under the supervision of star director Hatem Ali.

But the film required further authorisation before it could go on general release in Syrian cinemas. “The censors were full of praise for the film, but because of the sensitive political subject they passed it on to a higher authority for consideration. That was about six months ago. I’ve heard nothing since,” says the author…..( Read the rest)

Interview with Hakki:

The quality of the Syrian productions is by far superior to those of other Arab countries. How did Syria, of all places, reach that level?

Hakki: Right from the start, our aim was to make TV series with the quality of films. So we began to shoot with one mobile instead of three fixed cameras and went outside of the studios to real locations. Also, we let the actors speak the Syrian dialect. Before that everything had been spoken in modern standard Arabic, but using dialect sounds much more natural and makes the series more realistic. Today, the television industry in Egypt hires Syrian directors and actors to help improve the quality there.

How would you evaluate the economic importance of TV series in Syria?

Hakki: Today, TV series are the second biggest industry in Syria right after the oil industry. In the whole Middle East, only Egypt produces more than us, 3000 hours of series a year. Syria produces 1500 hours – that is equivalent to 50 TV dramas. Each one of them has 30 episodes so that they can be shown during Ramadan. There must be one episode for every day of the month of fasting…..

None of Us Were Like This Before: American Soldiers and Torture
Joshua E. S. Phillips (Phillips book is excellent and has several scenes in Syria, where Phillips interviewed Iraq refugees and played hide and seek with the mukhabarat, who thought he was up to no good and eventually chased him out of the country.) Here is the Amazon blurb about the book.

The legacy of torture in the “War on Terror,” told through the story of one tank battalion. “A lot of people look at Adam Gray’s story and say people who commit suicide are cowards or they don’t have, in the army lingo, ‘intestinal fortitude,’ ‘the hoorah’ or whatever. It’s exactly the opposite. Adam was the most gung-ho soldier I ever met in my entire life—the first guy to kick down a door. [But] I think he hated who he was when he was there. And I think he couldn’t deal with what he had done. And I still have trouble with that. It haunts me every day, and it’s something I’ll never get away from.”—Jonathan Millantz, served with Adam Gray in Battalion 1-68 in Iraq. On April 3, 2009, Jonathan Millantz took his own life.

Sergeant Adam Gray made it home from a year’s tour in Iraq only to die in his barracks. For more than three years, reporter Joshua Phillips—with the support of Adam’s mother and the cooperation of his Army buddies—investigated Adam’s death. What Phillips uncovered was a story of American veterans psychologically scarred by the abuse they had meted out to Iraqi prisoners. How did US forces turn to torture? Phillips’s narrative recounts the journey of a tank battalion— trained for conventional combat—as its focus switches to guerrilla war and prisoner detention. It tells of how a group of ordinary soldiers, ill trained for the responsibilities foisted upon them, descended into the degradations of abuse. The location is far from CIA prisons and Guanta?namo, but the story captures the widespread use and nature of torture in the US armed forces. Based on firsthand reporting from Jordan, Syria and Afghanistan, as well as interviews with soldiers, their families and friends, military officials, and the victims of torture, None of Us Were Like This Before reveals how soldiers, senior officials, and the US public came to believe that torture was both effective and necessary. The book illustrates that the damaging legacy of torture is not only borne by the detainees, but also by American soldiers and the country to which they’ve returned.

A Reader Review: “This book is engaging and affecting from the first to last page. The book is not dry policy discussion, overly graphic, or accusatory in tone. Phillips focuses instead on the personal stories of U.S. soldiers and civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan. His empathy for those he profiles shines through the pages. Phillips does not offer simple answers to why torture happens, but instead explores the many influences — personal, governmental, and cultural — that lead to it and to the tragedies it produces both for the tortured and the torturer. “

Also of note considering the ongoing debate over the legacy of Fadlallah is this excellent article.

The Sheikh Who Got Away Foreign Policy
BY DAVID KENNER | JULY 6, 2010

How the United States got Lebanon’s leading Shiite cleric dead wrong — and missed a chance to change the Middle East forever. ….

Conclusion

Following the end of the Lebanese civil war, Fadlallah became more circumspect about justifying attacks on Western targets. Along with Hezbollah and Iran, Fadlallah condemned the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks as incompatible with Islamic law. The attackers, he said, were not martyrs but “merely suicides.” He attributed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden’s motivations for carrying out the attacks to “personal psychological needs” stemming from a “tribal urge for revenge.” He also denounced the July 7, 2005, attacks in London as “a kind of barbarism that Islam unequivocally rejects.”

As Fadlallah grew in stature throughout the Arab world and also seized the attention of many in Washington, the competing portrayals of him quickly failed to bear even a passing resemblance to each other. For the U.S. government, he was an unrepentant terrorist who played an integral role in Hezbollah’s most vicious operations. To the mourners in Beirut, he was a fierce critic of colonialism and an important pioneer in efforts to reconcile traditional religious teaching with modernity and gender equality.

There was an element of truth to the U.S. stance: Fadlallah was certainly no liberal, nor an ally to be recruited to advance U.S. security goals. However, even a quarter-century after that misguided assassination attempt, U.S. officials failed to appreciate the areas where their interests and Fadlallah’s overlapped, both in isolating Iran and reducing the appeal of fundamentalism within Lebanon. The United States always preferred blunt instruments and simple epithets — crude tools indeed for a complex man.

Here is a good article by Tony Badran on Fadlallah. Not too often that I like Tony’s work.

The passing of Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah marks the end of an era for Lebanese Shiism. Who will attempt to fill his shoes as the leading marja remains to be seen, though it is safe to assume Iran, which never recognized his status, will try to fill the vacuum….

Michael Young explains why Fadlallah was not a liberal in Lebanon Now.

David Lesch has published a overview article of Syrian politics since Bashar took power. He concentrates on quotes and impressions of the President from his interviews over the years. David returned this week from two weeks in Damascus. His latest impressions are not included in this article. Here are extracts from the article.

The Evolution of Bashar al-Asad
Middle East Policy, Vol. XVII, No. 2, Summer 2010
By David W. Lesch

A U.S. official recently commented to me that in his government office the analysts had determined Syria to be more “diabolical” than Iran because Syrian President Bashar al-Asad “is ten times smarter than [Iranian President] Ahmadinejad.” My, how times have changed. It was not that long ago that iterations emanating from Washington and beyond regularly derided, even mocked, Bashar as incompetent, naïve and weak.

The fact of the matter is that Syria is practically immune to innovation and short-term change. There is an almost institutionalized revulsion to it from the lowest-level bureaucrats to the heads of ministries. Change in Syria just does not happen quickly; it is incremental at best…..

Bashar did not adequately adjust to the crucial underlying changes in American foreign policy after 9/11. This heightened Syria’s exposure to the U.S. regime-change rhetoric that characterized the Bush doctrine……

Confidence

I have personally seen Bashar al-Asad grow more comfortable as president over the years — perhaps too comfortable. When I first met him in 2004, he was still a bit unsure of the world about him. Particularly befuddling was U.S. policy. In 2005, he was defensive and angry, especially as Syria had been forced out of Lebanon, something for which he felt he should have received at least a little credit. In early 2006, having survived the worst that 2005 had to offer, he began to feel more secure in his position, more sure of his future. In the summer of 2006, during the Hezbollah-Israeli war, Bashar’s confidence grew, perhaps in proportion to the regional perception that Hezbollah, by surviving the Israeli onslaught, had inflicted a defeat upon the IDF. His anger at the United States turned almost into cockiness; the Bush administration had taken its best shot, and he was still standing….

Bashar al-Assad’s Election in 2007 Go to His Head

“This is the first time I felt that Bashar began to believe the sycophants, that to lead the country was his destiny. Maybe it is, but his view of the office had certainly evolved since the early years of his rule. In the 1950s, U.S. authorities frequently referred to friendly dictatorships as transitional authoritarian regimes, a necessary stage in the heat of the Cold War that would “transition” to democracy with U.S. guidance and support. Of course, more often than not, the transitional authoritarian leaders did not want to transition. They liked the level of power they had accumulated, and in many cases had become convinced (or had convinced themselves) that the well-being of the country was synonymous with their tenure in power. Considering that domestic and regional unrest have somewhat abated, I wonder if Bashar has passed the tipping point in this regard.”…

As Bashar gains confidence in his international standing, one hopes he will become more comfortable with public diplomacy. To him it is a matter of trust, and he remains very suspicious, as does Syria as a whole, of the outside world. I have seen his public diplomacy at the domestic level improve immeasurably over the last six years. I was with him (and his wife) after a special concert at the new opera house in Damascus in May 2007, and he did a superb job of working the room at the reception that followed the performance, listening intently to every person with whom he visited. By the end of the evening, he had spoken personally with everyone. I saw him work the balcony, so to speak, while viewing the post-election parade in front of his very modest presidential office in the Rowda area of Damascus. He made eye contact with and pointed toward as many of the people marching in front of him as he could, even inviting whole families from the street to spend some time with him on the balcony…..

Bashar — and Syria — just wants to be taken seriously by the international community.
Damascus wants to be seen as a problem solver, not a problem seeker.

Do not expect Damascus to completely sever its ties with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Quite to the contrary, Bashar sees his country as a conduit for the West to develop a dialogue with these very entities. While Syria continues to maintain friendly relations with them — to the great consternation of the United States — Bashar believes that his country cannot play the role of regional facilitator unless it cultivates its diverse connections. Unfortunately, his timing in doing so, especially in early 2010, when the Obama administration appeared to be reaching out to Damascus, is occasionally less than ideal. This has given the naysayers in Washington more grist for the mill, feeding their opposition to any improvement in U.S.-Syrian relations.

Not all powerful

Bashar is definitely not all-powerful. He struggles against systemic corruption and an institutional, bureaucratic and cultural inertia.

On many issues, he has to negotiate, bargain and manipulate the system to get things done, and I have witnessed this first hand. An array of Faustian bargains was erected under his father, such as unswerving loyalty in return for personal enrichment. This has the regime sincerely saying and wanting to do one thing while important groups connected to or actually in the regime are sometimes doing something quite different. There is really nothing Bashar can do about it without undercutting his support base, especially in a threatening regional environment when he needs all the friends in and outside of the regime that he can muster. He told me something in October 2008 that provided insight into his thinking along these lines. We were discussing the potential of elevating the indirect Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations brokered by Turkey that had begun earlier in the year to direct talks. He said that he really did not want to elevate them without more assurance of success, that he was “new to this game” and, since it was his “first time doing this,” that he “could not afford to fail.” He made his decision regarding pursuing negotiations with Israel, and he has arrayed people around him who agree with it. But there are elements who do not agree, so Bashar believes he has just one shot at this, and he had better get it right.

This is a very important reason that it is absolutely necessary from his perspective for the entire Golan Heights to the June 4, 1967, line to be returned to Syria. This is vital to his domestic legitimacy, his legacy-in-the-making compared with that of his father (who “lost” the Golan as minister of defense in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war), and to his regional clout, his ability to play the facilitator and create some distance between Damascus and Teheran.

Anti-Syrianism in the Obama Administration

There is still a good bit of leftover anti-Syrian inertia in the Obama administration, in the Pentagon and the intelligence communities, and in Congress, not to even speak of the negative image of Syria among the American people. There are also other obstacles to an improvement in U.S.-Syrian relations: a web of UN resolutions, a UN tribunal on the Hariri assassination and a sanctions regime erected by the Bush administration.

The Syrians will not fully trust anyone but President Obama himself to offer public declarations on improving the U.S.-Syrian relationship. When Obama talks — or acts — the rest of the U.S. government will line up behind him, just as the rest of the U.S. government lined up behind Bush’s confrontational policies. However, Obama’s waffling during the last year in the face of stiff diplomatic resistance from a hawkish Israeli government has not generated confidence in Damascus that it can count on the U.S. president just yet.

The Bush administration wasted six years with Syria when it could have cultivated a productive relationship with an inexperienced and more pliable Syrian president early on. The Bush legacy to Obama is that the American president will now have to deal with a stronger leader, battle-tested by policies that were meant to get rid of him.

Conclusion

There have been positive gestures between Damascus and Washington since Obama came to office. The Obama administration has begun a diplomatic dialogue, has announced the return of the U.S. ambassador to Syria, and has waived some restrictions in the Syrian Accountability Act. On the other side, Syria has played a largely positive role in Lebanon of late, has stepped up security cooperation with the United States along the Iraqi border, and seems to have repaired its fractured relationship with Saudi Arabia while building its friendship with Turkey. These efforts can help offset Iranian influence in the region. The quid pro quos must continue to overcome the
recent legacy of mistrust on both sides.

[end extracts]

Roger Cohen of the Washington Post writes that George Bush had asked Israel not to bomb Syria’s suspected nuclear reactor in 2007.

The Bush administration opposed the 2007 Israeli strike. It was worried the Syrians would respond and ignite a wider Middle East war. It believed tough U.S. diplomacy, backed by the threat of force, would ensure the Syrian reactor never became operational. President Bush’s line was: Let me handle it.

Ehud Olmert, then the Israeli prime minister, was disappointed at American inaction. His line was: It’s now in our hands. No U.S. green light was asked for, and none given, as Israel bombed.

The fallout was contained through sleight of hand. Israel feigned ignorance. A tight collar was placed for several months around U.S. intelligence. President Bashar al-Assad was not made to feel cornered. It was as if the reactor had gone poof in the night.

Could Iran’s Natanz plant go poof in the night? Some people are thinking about it, an attack from “nowhere.” I think those are dangerous thoughts. Iran is not Syria.

The Obama-Netanyahu statement said: “The president told the prime minister he recognizes that Israel must always have the ability to defend itself, by itself, against any threat or possible combination of threats, and that only Israel can determine its security needs.”

Is that plain language or a hall of mirrors?

Syria earns the dubious distinction of being the worst performing country vis-à-vis anti-corruption and accountability mechanisms since Global Integrity conducted its first national assessments nearly a decade ago.

Corruption as a Political Strategy
By Haidara Abboud in Global Integrity Report

The 2009 arrest of Brigadier General Hassan Makhlouf, who as head of the Syrian Customs Administration was responsible for fighting corruption, came as a double shock to Syrians. The arrest of a high-ranking official is not an unusual occurrence in Syria, as it happens from time to time. In fact, several ministers and a deputy prime minister have been arrested. Former Prime Minister Mahmoud al-Zoubi committed suicide in 2000 when police came to his house to issue a judicial notice asking him to appear before a judge to respond to allegations of corruption. All those arrested, however, are usually released after a limited time in prison.

What was new and shocking about Makhlouf’s case is the sheer size of the alleged corruption. Media reports estimate that the value of the cash and properties seized in the case at millions of dollars. This includes 137 properties owned by Makhlouf or a member of his family. A single room at his villa is alleged to have been filled with cash. Authorities suspect that he ordered border roads to be left unguarded during certain times to allow smugglers driving trucks full of merchandise to enter the country without paying customs. Despite his February 2009 arrest, he has not been tried in court as of May 2010 and has not made any public statement about the case.

There were even more shocking stories. According to reports by the Kuwaiti daily Alrai, Makhlouf permitted the entry of certain foreign vehicles in the belief that they were transporting food, but they were actually transporting equipment to be used in the assassination of a Hezbollah officer in Syria, Imad Mughniyah (who was assassinated in February 2008). The Syrian government allegedly considered the mistake to be a breach of national security, and it was thought by many that had Makhlouf not allowed this breach to occur, he would have probably been able to continue in his job for many more years.

The Makhlouf case contributes to a popular belief in Syria that corruption is only forbidden if it conflicts with national security needs. Aside from that, everything else is permitted as long as it is done in an “orderly” manner. This attitude leads to rampant corruption throughout Syria and its institutions.

Many Syrians believe that corruption is intentionally allowed to spread through all segments of society, in public and private institutions, in civil society organizations and even in religious institutions, as a political strategy to prevent the emergence of a credible and respected opposition to the current regime….

The case of Maen Akel, a journalist for Al-Thawra, is a clear example of what can happen to journalists who try to dig deeper. He was finishing an investigative report about corruption in the pharmaceutical industry in Syria when security forces arrested him at his office in November 2009 and confiscated all his documents. Though he was not working on a political story, he was held for three months by security forces without an arrest warrant. Nor was he brought to court to face specific charges. He was expelled from his job without being given a reason, which is contrary to the rules of the law. It also was suggested that he never work in journalism again.

Many believe that only when all the public figures have been corrupted would political activities be encouraged and a law for political parties would be passed. Then, a “corruption file” for everyone will be available to be used against anyone who is “crossing the line,” with the result that they will be expelled from participation in the political sphere. Besides, special benefits are always a powerful tool to buy the elite’s loyalty to the ruling party.

U.A.E. diplomat mulls hit on Iran’s nukes
By Eli Lake – The Washington Times,  July 6, 2010

The United Arab Emirates ambassador to the United States said Tuesday that the benefits of bombing Iran’s nuclear program outweigh the short-term costs such an attack would impose….. “I think it’s a cost-benefit analysis,” Mr. al-Otaiba said. “I think despite the large amount of trade we do with Iran, which is close to $12 billion … there will be consequences, there will be a backlash and there will be problems with people protesting and rioting and very unhappy that there is an outside force attacking a Muslim country; that is going to happen no matter what.” “If you are asking me, ‘Am I willing to live with that versus living with a nuclear Iran?,…

John R. Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said the comments reflect the views of many Arab states in the Persian Gulf region that “recognize the threat posed by a nuclear Iran.

U.A.E. denies backing use of force against Iran

Assistant minister says earlier comments by envoy appearing to back a military strike were taken out of context.

UAE ambassador confirms: Palestine is the core issue
by Paul Woodward on July 8, 2010

This is the key section of the interview — the part Goldberg ignored, as did his friend Eli Lake at the Washington Times, when pumping out this week’s rendition of Israel’s Arabs-united-against-Iran narrative. Here the ambassador makes it clear that the only significant leverage Obama has on the issue of Iran is to push hard for the creation of a Palestinian state….

OTAIBA: For him to really make progress on the Iran issue and to deal with extremism and to deal with terrorism in the region, to deal with radicalized home-grown terrorism in the U.S., you need to address the peace process. That is the one core issue everyone tends to blame, and that’s what the people hang all their problems on.

Well, the Palestinians are, you know, they are — they don’t have a country, they are abused, they are oppressed, and the U.S. always sides with Israel. So the sooner U.S. appears to be objective and impartial and create a Palestinian state, we take that argument away from everyone, and that is in everyone’s best interest….

Iran MP Slams U.A.E. Envoy Remarks, Says Tours May Be Suspended 2010-07-07
By Ali Sheikholeslami

July 7 (Bloomberg) — Iran may bar trips to the United Arab Emirates after the U.A.E.’s envoy to the U.S. said his country supports military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities. “I hope the government of the U.A.E. will correct this viewpoint,” said Kazem Jalali… The U.A.E.’s central bank asked financial institutions in the federation to freeze 41 bank accounts of Iranian individuals and companies in compliance with United Nations Security Council sanctions passed on June 9,

Syria’s attack on gay people must end
Dan Littauer, Guardian

The crackdown on homosexuality in Syria is not about public safety, as claimed. It is a serious breach of human rights.

Since late March, police have conducted a series of raids on private parties and meeting places, and more than 25 men have been arrested. The arrests are shrouded in secrecy but some information has leaked out. Since late March, police have conducted a series of raids on private parties and meeting places, and more than 25 men have been arrested. The arrests are shrouded in secrecy but some information has leaked out.

At the Gay Middle East news website (GME) we have received several testimonies and published two reports from undercover sources in Damascus. In Beirut, Georges Azzi of Helem (the first LGBT advocacy group in an Arab country) confirms that arrests are taking place but says: “Unfortunately none of our contacts can give us more details at this point. It seems that the police are tracking gay people in Syria now.”