Toronto Star: Arab Awakening: Offspring of dictators are failing at succession
2011-02-27

Bashar Assad, son and designated successor of late Syrian President Hafez Assad, makes a fist as he follows the coffin of his father into the mosque of Qardaha, the home village of the late Syrian leader, June 13, 2000. n Arab countries that don’t have monarchies, the model for aspiring family dynasties was set by Hafez Assad, the iron-clawed “Lion of Damascus,” who died on a sunny June day in 2000…..

Attempts to create family dynasties have to varying degrees helped spark popular uprisings in Arab countries not ruled by monarchies — Yemen, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. (The revolts have also shaken monarchies in Bahrain, Morocco and Jordan.)

Repression, poverty and a general lack of freedom and democracy are the root causes of the Arab revolts. But the family successions being prepared were the frustrating signs that nothing would change.

“People saw it as a symptom of the lack of democracy,” says Marina Ottaway, director of the Middle East program at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment think-tank. “Here were these regimes trying to perpetuate themselves even after the death of the current strongman.”

“It was one of those things that really touched the dignity of Egyptians,” says Michael Wahid Hanna, a fellow at the New York-based Century Foundation. They saw it as an affront — ‘What is this? We’re not Saudi Arabia, we’re not a monarchy.’ ”

Making matters worse was the widely held view of Gamal as leader of a highly corrupt new guard within the ruling National Democratic Party, which made its fortune through the privatization of Egypt’s economy in the l990s.

The old guard, including a military hierarchy that has dominated Egypt since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1952, saw the heightened corruption as needlessly provocative in a country where 40 per cent earn less than $2 a day….

In Yemen, Saleh was promising to dump his son at the same time as Mubarak was dumping his. ….

In Libya, a Mubarak-style seaside retirement doesn’t seem in the cards for strongman Moammar Gadhafi and his family. …

All of this leaves Syrian President Bashar Assad as the first and only example of family succession in the non-monarchic Arab world. His repressive regime has so far been spared the revolts sweeping the region. Still, the republican dynastic model he represents is a thing of the past, says British Middle East expert Tim Niblock. This stage of Arab history is finished.”

Facebook Page Calls To Oust Syria’s Assad With Worldwide
2011-02-26 – Radio Netherlands

NICOSIA (AFP)–A Facebook page has called for mass protests in Syria and in several Western countries against the rule of President Bashar al-Assad. The organizers of the page, which had 25,000 fans early on Saturday, said the date for demonstrations to be held “in all Syrian cities” was being carefully studied and “will be determined in a few days.”

Landmark Decision by Lebanon Tribunal ( DER SPIEGEL 22 feb 2011)
Court Ruling Opens Up Terrorism to International Prosecution

The UN tribunal investigating the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has ruled that acts of terrorism can be prosecuted under international law. The decision will have far-reaching legal implications, but could also increase political turmoil in Lebanon and cause the Hariri case to collapse….

CAIRO (Reuters) – Future presidents of Egypt will only be allowed to stay in office for eight years according to constitutional amendments that will open up competition for the position held for three decades by ousted leader Hosni Mubarak.

After Iraq’s Day of Rage, a crackdown on intellectuals
Stephanie McCrummen, The Washington Post

Iraqi security forces detained about 300 people, including prominent journalists, artists and lawyers, who took part in nationwide demonstrations Friday, in what some of them described as an operation to intimidate Baghdad intellectuals….

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who only recently formed a fragile governing coalition that is supported by the United States, was apparently concerned about the protest billed as Iraq’s “Day of Rage.” Leading up to Friday, he ordered a curfew on cars and urged Iraqis to stay home, as a government spokesman warned of “terrorists” who might use “sniping and silencer pistols” to target crowds. Security forces raided a prominent journalist watchdog group involved in organizing the protest.
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Despite that, tens of thousands of Iraqis turned out for the protests, which began peacefully but degenerated as forces fired water cannons, sound bombs and live bullets to disperse crowds.

The death toll rose to at least 29 Saturday, as officials reported that six more protesters, including a 14-year-old boy, died from bullet wounds. The deaths were recorded in at least eight places, including Fallujah, Mosul and Tikrit.

Ssairi and his colleagues had joined the protests in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, some wrapping themselves in white sheets in a sign of peace. As the sun set, helicopters swooped down into the crowd, signaling the start of the crackdown.

Around 4 p.m., Aldiyar TV manager Fiysal Alyassiry, who had broadcast the demonstrations, reported that security forces had attacked the station, beat a worker, arrested seven people including a director and an anchorman, and closed the station.

Will Syria become more democratic?
By David Ignatius
Sunday, February 27, 2011;

DAMASCUS, SYRIA: The rise and fall of a protest demonstration here recently shows that Syrians share the yearning for dignity that’s sweeping the Arab world – and also illustrates why President Bashar al-Assad so far hasn’t been threatened by this tide of anger. ….

Syria is a paradox in this Arab season of revolt. It has an authoritarian regime dominated by a corrupt Baath Party – a relic of the age of dictators that is being swept away in so many other countries. But President Assad, relatively young at 45 and wrapped in the popular banner of resistance to Israel and America, hasn’t yet been affected.

Is Syria next? That’s impossible to predict at a time when, as an Arab proverb puts it, “the artery of shame has ruptured.” The answer depends on whether the Assad regime is able to make reforms – and move as quickly as it did a week ago in responding to that street demonstration.

The French, who probably know this country better than most outsiders, view Assad as relatively secure. “In the short to medium term, the probability of revolution is extremely low in Syria compared to other countries,” is how one official describes the French perspective.

An intriguing debate is underway among Assad’s advisers about whether he should allow more democracy and openness – something he has long claimed he wants – or keep the controls fastened tight. The reformers argue that change will enhance Assad’s popularity, while the security establishment counters that concessions now would be a sign of weakness – and empower the Muslim Brotherhood.

Assad must decide soon whether to allow real parties – other than the Baath and its various fronts – to compete in elections this year. Syria has both municipal and parliamentary elections scheduled for this year, and the question is whether there will be real, open balloting for candidates and parties, or a Soviet-style, rubber-stamp version, as in the past. Another opportunity for a shake-up is a congress of the Baath Party also planned for this year.

Reformers hope that Assad will amend the constitution so that it doesn’t require Baath rule and instead allows inter-party competition. “If we have different political parties, it’s healthy for the Baath, which is slowing down and getting distanced from the people,” argues one Syrian reformer.

Corruption is also a volatile issue here. The regime is vulnerable because Assad’s cousin, Rami Makhluf, is the dominant shareholder of the lucrative cellphone franchise known as Syriatel. Assad is considering whether Makhluf should reduce his interest to make way for foreign investment, according to two knowledgeable people. But that reform move could trigger a rift within his family.

The debate among Assad’s inner circle mirrors the wider political battles that are rocking the Arab world. For now, the streets of Damascus are mostly full of shoppers, not protesters. But if the experience of other countries over the past two months shows anything, it’s that delaying reform too long in a one-party state like Syria is potentially a fatal mistake.

Syria’s squandered electricity estimated over 2 bln USD: report
2011-02-27 14:17:34.963 GMT

DAMASCUS, Feb 27, 2011 (Xinhua via COMTEX) — A recently published European study reported the squandered electricity energy in Syria was estimated at over 2 billion U.S. dollars, local Damascus Press news website reported Sunday. The study, prepared in cooperation with Syrian Energy Sector and financed by the European Union, said Syria’s squandered electricity rate is one of the highest in the world. The report attributed the squandering to the outdated low-tension network, saying that all government’s suggested procedures have failed to reduce squandering. The steadily declining of oil and gas production and depletion of reserves have pushed the Syrian government to seek for renewable energy sources, including wind and sun, to meet the rising domestic consumption.

Haaretz – Merkel chides Netanyahu for failing to make ‘a single step to advance peace’

Netanyahu and his advisers are working on a speech that would outline an alternative to the interim agreement with the Palestinians, similar to Lieberman’s plan. That initiative, which Haaretz reported on a month ago, consists of establishing a Palestinian state within temporary borders on about 50 percent of the West Bank.

The prime minister has been discussing the plan with Lieberman in recent weeks to understand it more thoroughly.

All of the sources, however, added that it was unclear whether Netanyahu seriously intended to advance the peace process or whether he merely wants to appear to be doing so, as a means of shifting international pressure onto the PA. In the latter case, he is counting on the Palestinians’ objection to the Israeli initiative. …

….Netanyahu told Merkel he was disappointed by Germany’s vote and by Merkel’s refusal to accept Israel’s requests before the vote, the source added. Merkel was furious.

“How dare you,” she said, according to the official. “You are the one who disappointed us. You haven’t made a single step to advance peace.” The prime minister assured Merkel that he intended to launch a new peace plan.

Sucking up to Syria
Benny Avni, New York Post: , 2011-02-25

When it comes to Syria, we’re actively coddling a hateful regime as it faces unrest. Why won’t we encourage freedom-seeking Syrians to overthrow their oppressor, as we did with former allied countries like Egypt and Tunisia?…..

??? ??? ?????? ???? ?????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ??????? ?????? ???? ????? ??? “???? ???????” ????? ??”????? ????? ???? ????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????” ?? ?????? Abdal Halim Khaddam, Syria’s ex-Vice President and No. 1 dissident is calling for a NationalUnity government in Damascus, where, presumably, he would regain his old title.

GAZA (Reuters) — Israeli warplanes bombed a half-dozen targets in the Gaza Strip on Saturday, wounding a 7-month-old girl and aPalestinian man, medics in the coastal territory said.

Syria Takes ‘Step Forward’ in United Nations Nuclear Probe
By Jonathan Tirone

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Syrian nuclear authorities said they’d allow United Nations inspectors to visit a uranium-extraction plant in what the International Atomic Energy Agency called a “step forward.”

Syria Rejects Nuke Probe
2011-02-25 1
By GEORGE JAHN

Vienna (AP) — Diplomats say Syria has formally rejected a request from the head of the U.N. atomic agency for access to a suspected nuclear site…. The refusal was a snub to IAEA chief Yukiya Amano, who had directly asked Syria’s foreign minister in November to allow a new visit. The agency is attempting to probe both Syria and Iran. It is to release reports on both nations later Friday.

‘Volcano of rage’ (Max Rodenbeck, New York Review of Books)

“Much of Egypt’s nomenclatura consists of current and former army officers like Mubarak himself. Their inbuilt resistance to truly revolutionary change can be seen in the high command’s reluctance, so far, to countenance any investigation of the Mubarak family, or to outline a comprehensive vision for reform. They have yet to abolish Egypt’s notorious emergency law, or to release remaining political prisoners. Perhaps most disturbingly, the military has charged the last cabinet appointed by Mubarak with continuing to run the daily affairs of government. In short, it is not yet clear whether the generals’ understanding of “democracy” is closer to Mubarak’s than to the hopes so vividly expressed by their people. Yet there is no doubt that Egypt has changed for good, and with it the wider region. As the increasingly brutal suppression of uprisings in Yemen, Bahrain, and Libya shows, the Egyptian model of massive street uprisings may not work everywhere in the tyranny-prone Middle East. But in Cairo, at least, a newfound sense of empowerment and potential pulses vigorously. It will not be easily muted.”….

Lack of protests in Syria blamed on internet crackdown
By Weedah Hamzah and Aya Batrawy Feb 27, 2011

Beirut – While much of the Arab world continues to see thousands of people taking to the streets with calls for political change, a ‘Day of Rage’ planned in Syria this month drew only a few dozen protesters.

Hundreds of Syrians did later demonstrate, but to demand an investigation into the alleged police beating of a young man in the capital Damascus – not to seek the toppling of the government, as protesters have successfully done in Tunisia and Egypt.

Government officials attribute the lack of upheaval to President Bashar al-Assad’s popularity.

‘Such protests are useless in Syria because the president is not hated as much as Hosny Mubarak in Egypt. Our president has started to make reforms a few years ago,’ a Syrian source loyal to the president told the German Press Agency dpa. But rights groups and activists blame the low turnout on an internet crackdown initiated by the government.

New York Times – Slackman

“Iran is the big winner here,” said a regional adviser to the United States government who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters.

Iran’s circumstances could change, experts cautioned, if it overplayed its hand or if popular Arab movements came to resent Iranian interference in the region. And it is by no means assured that pro-Iranian groups would dominate politics in Egypt, Tunisia or elsewhere.

For now, Iran and Syria are emboldened. Qatar and Oman are tilting toward Iran, and Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Yemen are in play.

Egypt’s Economy Needs to Change. It Won’t
By David J. Lynch, 2011-02-24

Feb. 24 (Bloomberg BusinessWeek)Despite its position astride trade routes in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East, Egypt hasn’t secured a role in global supply chains. Nike (NKE), for example, buys shoes and clothing from 42 Vietnamese manufacturers that employ more than 198,000 workers, according to its website. Egypt, with a similar population, is handicapped by numerous taxes, uncertain contract enforcement, and insufficient skilled labor. Just five Egyptian companies employing 5,129 people supply finished products to Nike.

From 2004 to 2009, per capita income rose 20 percent in Egypt. Vietnam posted a 34 percent income gain over that period. “They really need to penetrate global industrial supply networks,” says Marcus Noland, author of The Arab Economies in a Changing World. Between 1990 and 2009, Egypt’s per capita exports of goods and services rose at an average annual rate of less than 5 percent—about half the rate of India and one-third of China, says the IMF.

Egypt, which has endured unemployment above 8 percent for years, must create 9.4 million jobs by 2020 to absorb the jobless as well as new entrants into the workforce. To do so, GDP would have to grow almost 10 percent a year, about twice the rate since 2000, says the IMF…… The bottom line: Egypt after Mubarak shows signs of resistance to the free-market reforms it must adopt before it connects with the global economy.

(AFP) Russia announced Saturday that it intended to fulfil its contract to supply Syria with cruise missiles despite the turmoil shaking the Arab world and Israel’s furious condemnation of the deal.
“The contract is in the implementation stage,” news agencies quoted Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov as saying. …”

SUBJECT: MARCH 14 SHOOTS ITSELF IN FOOT DURING ELYSEE VISIT
Wikileaks

¶1. (S) Summary: A March 14th delegation led by Lebanese MP Marwan Hamadeh that met October 2 with senior French officials may have done more harm than good, at least so far as relations with the Elysee are concerned. “What world are they living in?” Boris Boillon, Counselor for Middle East Affairs at the Elysee, wondered as he listened to Hamadeh express March 14th’s concerns to French NSA-equivalent Jean-David Levitte. Boillon’s negative impression was sealed when Hamadeh alluded to the possibility that the French and Syrian armies were collaborating on a plan for the Syrian re-occupation of Lebanon…

………… Boillon accused March 14th of living in a fantasy world fueled by a rumor-mongering Lebanese press, much of which is sympathetic to the Lebanese opposition. “Of course the opposition is going to claim that France is backing them, that’s part of the game,” said Boillon, who insisted that the March 14th leadership should be smart enough not to believe such tripe. But the reality, he lamented, is that March 14th is part and parcel of a political culture mired in navel-gazing and paranoia……

SYRIA’S TRIUMPH IN LEBANON: AU REVOIR, LES ENTENTES
By Gary C. Gambill *

Since the ignominious withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon in 2005, Damascus has managed to regain dominion over the country by exploiting its adversaries’ conflicting interests and weak resolve………….

Soaring food and fuel prices: Their impact on public finances and other causes of persistently high consumer price inflation in North African and Middle Eastern countries

Dardari argues that reducing taxes on food is going to create jobs in Syria…. “????? ????? ???????? ??????? ???? ??????? ??????? ?????? ????? ?????, ??? ??????? ??? “??? ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ?????”? ????? ?? “???? ?????? ?? ????????? ???? ??????? ???????? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ??????? ??????? ????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ????? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ???????? ???? ??????? ?????????? ??? ?????? ????????”.

80 Iranian individuals on new list for sanction from Washington

Asma al-Assad: A Rose in the Desert
by Joan Juliet Buck | photographed by James Nachtwey
Vogue, February 25, 2011

Asma al-Assad is glamorous, young, and very chic—the freshest and most magnetic of first ladies. Her style is not the couture-and-bling dazzle of Middle Eastern power but a deliberate lack of adornment. She’s a rare combination: a thin, long-limbed beauty with a trained analytic mind who dresses with cunning understatement. Paris Match calls her “the element of light in a country full of shadow zones.” She is the first lady of Syria.

Syria is known as the safest country in the Middle East, possibly because, as the State Department’s Web site says, “the Syrian government conducts intense physical and electronic surveillance of both Syrian citizens and foreign visitors.” It’s a secular country where women earn as much as men and the Muslim veil is forbidden in universities, a place without bombings, unrest, or kidnappings, but its shadow zones are deep and dark. ….

….The old al-Assad family apartment was remade into a child-friendly triple-decker playroom loft surrounded by immense windows on three sides. With neither shades nor curtains, it’s a fishbowl. Asma al-Assad likes to say, “You’re safe because you are surrounded by people who will keep you safe.” Neighbors peer in, drop by, visit, comment on the furniture. The president doesn’t mind: “This curiosity is good: They come to see you, they learn more about you. You don’t isolate yourself.”

There’s a decorated Christmas tree. Seven-year-old Zein watches Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland on the president’s iMac; her brother Karim, six, builds a shark out of Legos; and nine-year-old Hafez tries out his new electric violin. All three go to a Montessori school.

Asma al-Assad empties a box of fondue mix into a saucepan for lunch. The household is run on wildly democratic principles. “We all vote on what we want, and where,” she says. The chandelier over the dining table is made of cut-up comic books. “They outvoted us three to two on that.”

A grid is drawn on a blackboard, with ticks for each member of the family. “We were having trouble with politeness, so we made a chart: ticks for when they spoke as they should, and a cross if they didn’t.” There’s a cross next to Asma’s name. “I shouted,” she confesses. “I can’t talk about empowering young people, encouraging them to be creative and take responsibility, if I’m not like that with my own children.”….

….And then there’s her cultural mission: “People tend to see Syria as artifacts and history,” she says. “For us it’s about the accumulation of cultures, traditions, values, customs. It’s the difference between hardware and software: the artifacts are the hardware, but the software makes all the difference—the customs and the spirit of openness. We have to make sure that we don’t lose that. . . . ”

That brand essence includes the distant past. There are 500,000 important ancient works of art hidden in storage; Asma al-Assad has brought in the Louvre to create a network of museums and cultural attractions across Syria, and asked Italian experts to help create a database of the 5,000 archaeological sites in the desert. “Culture,” she says, “is like a financial asset. We have an abundance of it, thousands of years of history, but we can’t afford to be complacent.”

In December, Asma al-Assad was in Paris to discuss her alliance with the Louvre. She dazzled a tough French audience at the International Diplomatic Institute, speaking without notes. “I’m not trying to disguise culture as anything more than it is,” she said, “and if I sound like I’m talking politics, it’s because we live in a politicized region, a politicized time, and we are affected by that.”….. Read the article

Video of yesterday’s demonstration in front of the Libyan Embassy in Damascus – About 100-150 Syrians demonstrated in solidarity with Libya’s struggle against Qaddafi in front of the Libyan embassy in Damascus. They called for Qaddafi’s downfall.

The demonstrators were chanting “peacefully, peacefully”. One demonstrator wrote to say that a number of the participants were kept from the protest and abused by police in riot gear. “7 young people were captured and violently questioned for a few hours. A girl was beaten badly by the riot police among dozens of young men and women who were only trying to reach the embassy in solidarity with Libyan people. We were chanting peacefully, peacefully but still the police punished us and prevented us from reaching the embassy. ”

Reporters Without Borders has published an article condemning the arrest of a number of young Syrians who keep blogs over the last year: “Wave of arrests of Syrian bloggers.” Arab twitterers are heavily circulating a tweet that claims that the Syrian president has sent “3,500 Palestinians to help Qaddafi against his people.” This has not been reported in the main stream press and does not seem credible, but suggests the volatile mood of the activists.

Meanwhile, al-Watan, a Syrian paper, is reporting an interview with ???? ???, one of the people involved in the altercation between civilians and police in the Hariqa district that let to a demonstration and the minister of the interior going to calm people down. He claims that the police were impolite but did not hit people.

Sen. Kerry, Syria’s Assad working to renew talks with Israel
Haaretz, 24.02.11
U.S. Senator John Kerry and Syrian President Bashar Assad reportedly began drafting an unofficial position paper that would define the principles of negotiations with Israel.
By Barak Ravid

…The first item dealt with a key Syrian demand – that Israel withdraw from the Golan Heights. The wording of this clause was similar to that used during the Israeli-Syrian talks conducted by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert: It stated that the basis for the talks would be the principle of land for peace, in accordance with the 1991 Madrid Conference and UN resolutions on the subject.

Kerry also tried to draft a clause to satisfy one of Israel’s key demands – that any peace agreement lead to Syria severing its ties with Iran and Hezbollah.

A European diplomat briefed on the Kerry-Assad talks said that Assad had expressed willingness to discuss “Syria’s strategic positioning and regional security issues” in negotiations with Israel. That formulation is vague, but can be interpreted as reflecting Syrian willingness to discuss its relationship with Iran and Hezbollah. …

The losing fight to prosecute Rafik Hariri’s assassins
By Neil Macdonald CBC News, Feb 22, 2011

…..Former UN investigators have told CBC News the evidence is mostly circumstantial — intricate telecommunications charts that show which phones called which other phones, but fail to actually put the phones in the hands of Hezbollah operatives.

Further, the tribunal, which still operates a small office in Lebanon, concedes that the Lebanese government, meaning Hezbollah, basically knows every move its investigators make before they make it.

Sounds like Hezbollah is winning, in other words. In fact, it’s beginning to sound as if the whole UN effort might have been a waste of time….

Syria on Thursday announced it will cut taxes on basic foodstuffs

and imports in a bid to offset rising food prices and help low-income households, the official press reported. The government slashed the tax on cooking oil by 53.3 percent. It also reduced the tax on animal fats and sugar by 20 and 25 percent respectively. “This decree will certainly bring about a decrease in food prices that will benefit low-income earners,” the official Al-Thawra newspaper said in an article titled “Special attention granted to the basic needs of citizens.”

Import taxes fell from two to one percent. “We expect merchants to reflect its effects on the retail price of food” after a rise in foodstuff prices on global markets, said an official from the chamber of industry quoted in the newspaper. Last week Syria’s national social aid fund started distributing $250 million (184.5 million euros) of financial aid to 420,000 poor families. The UN Development Programme says 14 percent of Syria’s 22 million people live in extreme poverty. DAMASCUS (AFP) – Monday, February 21, 2011 7:10 AM

WSJ [Reg]: Second Suspected Syria Nuclear Site Is Found 2011-02-24

WASHINGTON—A second suspected nuclear installation has been identified in Syria, according to commercial satellite photos, providing new evidence that Damascus may have been pursuing atomic weapons before a 2007 Israeli military strike. The …

Unblocking Syria’s social media
Some wonder if Syria’s decision to allow access to facebook and blog sites is just a new way to track activists.
Jillian York Last Modified: 12 Feb 2011

Christian Science Monitor
Bilal Y. Saab is a PhD candidate at the University of Maryland

College Park, Md. – The resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the ensuing political transition in Cairo has created a wave of uncertainty over the strategic politics of the Middle East, carrying both risks and opportunities for US interests and allies in the region. One potential and less-than-obvious opportunity is to relaunch peace talks between Syria and Israel.

Syria’s poor receive cash aid from government
Phil Sands
Feb 20, 2011

Damascus // Thousands of impoverished Syrians began receiving cash payments from a multimillion-dollar aid fund this week, as part of a government effort to tackle persistent high levels of poverty.

The step comes less than a month after heating fuel subsidies for two million public sector employees were unexpectedly raised by 72 per cent. The government had previously been in the process of cutting back subsidies, which it can ill afford to pay because of dwindling oil reserves.

Import duties on various staple foods, including rice, tea, coffee and powdered milk, were also cut this week in a move designed to lessen the impact of rising food prices that have hit ordinary Syrians hard.

Although the social aid fund has been in the pipeline for years, and the cabinet approved an outline of the programme in December, analysts in Syria say its implementation was accelerated after the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, when entrenched rulers were toppled in protests fired, at least in part, by widespread public outrage at growing economic hardship…..

Another economic analyst said that government programmes currently in place would not prevent deepening poverty.

“This year will see the poor getting poorer and the rich getting richer,” he said. “We have 10 different socioeconomic classes in this country. One of them is rich, the rest are poor, and the poor are slipping down, down, down.”

Khalid Aboud, the secretary of the Syrian parliament, said, “There’s a gap between the citizens’ needs and the government’s ability to help them,” he said. “The government hopes to increase the salaries of its employees but the big question is how to pay for that. The government doesn’t have enough money to help the poor as much as it would like.”….

Selucid: A wonderful young Syrian doctor blogger:
Being Green, Syrian style: Water
Posted December 24, 2010 by seleucid

….The facts:

Syria has enough renewable water to provide 800 cubic meters for each person annually (A country is considered water scarce once it goes under 1000 cubic meters, which we did five years ago). Of course that is not only water for drinking, cooking, cleaning, showering and such, but also water to irrigate your carbs and veggies. Actually, that’s where 90% of our water quota goes, with 2% to industrialization and 8% to personal use. Right now, Syria uses 25% more than what renewable water can provide, which means ground level water is being depleted at an alarming rate, a blunder that will cost lives in the upcoming decades…..

But read what he has to say about his first month as an intern in a public Syrian hospital. This is good stuff by a talented new voice.

What does the Arab world do when its water runs out?
2011-02-20 Guardian (GB):

Poverty, repression, decades of injustice and mass unemployment have all been cited as causes of the political convulsions in the Middle East and north Africa these last weeks. But a less recognised reason for the turmoil in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, …

“In the future the main geopolitical resource in the Middle East will be water rather than oil. The situation is alarming,” said Swiss foreign minister Micheline Calmy-Rey last week, as she launched a Swiss and Swedish government-funded report for the EU.

The Blue Peace report examined long-term prospects for seven countries, including Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, the Palestinian territories and Israel. Five already suffer major structural shortages, it said, and the amount of water being taken from dwindling sources across the region cannot continue much longer.

“Unless there is a technological breakthrough or a miraculous discovery, the Middle East will not escape a serious [water] shortage,” ….

Is the Food Crisis Real?
Written by John Berthelsen
Monday, 21 February 2011
Or is it another bout of government panic and market manipulation?

What is going on with global food prices? Last week the World Bank, in its Food Price Watch, warned that they have hit dangerous levels that could contribute to “macro vulnerabilities” including political instability.

Some 44 million people in the developing world, where typically half of family budgets go into food purchases, have been pushed into extreme poverty, according to the World Bank’s report. As governments raise interest rates in the effort to keep food price inflation in check, they face the problem of choking off economic growth in the wider economy at a time when the world and the region are still recovering from the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

But how much of this is real and how much is panic and market manipulation? Two weeks ago, for instance, Indonesia announced it would increase its stockpiles to 2 million tonnes, with Hatta Rajasa, the Coordinating Minister for the Economy, telling reporters that because the rest of the world is increasing its stocks, Indonesia must as well. That calls up images of 2007, when rice-exporting governments locked up their warehouses to the outside world and drove rice prices from US$300 per tonne to US$1,100 in six months before prices collapsed back to about US$550 per tonne when the world came to the realization that there was no rice crisis at all.

There are signs that it might be happening again. Wheat prices are up 74 percent over the last year, corn up 92 percent…..

By Munzer A. Khair
Posted By Alex
Syria Comment
Feb 23rd, 2011

The amateur author of this outburst is a Syrian Arab, a Semite by ancestry and definition like all Arabs, and proud of it. He is also a part product of US Americana (AUB IC prep school in Beirut, Mount Hermon School for Boys in Massachusetts, dishwashing and waitering, AUB in Beirut, Colorado School of Mines, University of Texas, and even pre-Cheney Halliburton…) of which he is equally proud, fond and grateful.

This is a call on the United States to reexamine its stubborn, hypocritical and self-defeating “moral clarity” narrative that defined and severely limited American options in the Middle East, led to unnecessary confrontations and to an unhealthy sense of hopelessness among many Arabs. It prevented cooperation between the United States and leading Arab nationalists that could have facilitated solutions including a comprehensive settlement to the bitter Arab Israeli conflict. While the Arab world attempts to cleanse itself from hypocrite and failed leaderships, the United States should not pass the opportunity to proactively initiate the necessary changes on its part.

I AM ‘THE HOLIER THAN THOU, THE ALMIGHTY, THE ALL KNOWING. DO AS I SAY, DO NOT DO AS I DO…”

“Every time anyone says that Israel is our only friend in the Middle East, I can’t help but think that, before Israel, we had no enemies in the Middle East”. Fr. John Sheehan, Jesuit thinker.

In my recurrent use here below of the expression “One intrinsically noble nation, preeminent among all so-called Western democratic nations”, I seem to single out the USA. It just happens that the USA is at the forefront and the most prolific although the French and the English were never innocent bystanders at the beginning, before turning into subservient and really inconsequential yes men.

One great federated nation, preeminent among all so-called Western democratic nations, has been persistent in its policy of the democratic or not so democratic active pursuit of partitions, secessions, and breakaways. Witness: Korea, Cyprus, Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Iraq, and now Sudan. What comes next? it depends on what suits the United States… The same nation that suppressed, at the cost of some 2 million casualties, the truly democratic secession of its Southern Confederate states from its Northern states.

One great peace-loving nation, has been persistent in fighting wars, warranted, semi-warranted, unwarranted, or invented out of thin air (remember Iraq’s WMDs), always outside its frontiers, never on its soil….. Exactly like Israel. The only two times it happened, at Pearl Harbor, even if somewhat remote, and September 11th, it drove this self-proclaimed “rule of law, democratic and human rights” nation into a police/security state. Remember the post Pearl Harbor and World War II mid-desert concentration camps or cities of second generation Americans of Japanese and German origins? Remember the more recent ex-territorial torture “facilities”? Abu Ghuraib? Guantanamo (still on-going…)? Water boarding? The mercenary gung-ho “security” firms? The prevalent Homeland Security Act, Patriot Act, Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act? Legalized wiretaps? Covert intrusion into all radio, phone, fax, email, sms, face book, twitter communications? The demonizing of Islam and the arbitrary suspicion/questioning/ harassment of Muslims, Arab or Asian-looking but genuine US and other citizens? The airport scans and intrusive pat-downs?

One great freedom-loving nation, has persisted in its mind-set of blindly supporting not so democratic kings, warlords or dictators – as long as they were useful – in its prevalent gung-ho policy of “Yes, he is a sonofabitch, but he is OUR sonofabitch!”. Remember Trujillo? Noriega? the Shah of Iran ? Pinochet? Saddam Husein (as long as he was fighting post-shah Iran)? Talibans and Al Qaida (as long as they were fighting and pushing the Soviet army out of Afghanistan)? Saudi Royal family (As long as their money was financing and arming the madrasas that produced the Talibans, Bin Laden and Al Qaida, as orchestrated by the CIA)? Qadhdhafi (after he got the message…)? Al Bashir (after he got the message…)?

One great humanitarian nation, in its declared pursuit of “bringing democracy to Iraq” after failing to find the trumped up WMDs, has dismembered, vandalized and impoverished a proud and rich nation. The unnecessary war it led and its aftermath, regardless of the invading or local perpetrators, displaced, impoverished, jailed, maimed or killed more Iraqis than Saddam Hussein, murderous tyrant as he was, ever did or could have dreamed of doing if he had stayed in power.

One great one-man-one-vote nation, has persisted in its advocacy, promotion, support of, and commitment to “democratic elections” in the Arab world, as long as said democratic elections come out in its favor. . If not, God forbid, these elections, even if certified by international inspectors, suddenly and automatically turn into “terrorist” or “rogue” or “morally unacceptable to the international community”

Witness the Palestinian elections in Ghazza, where foreign and Western observers monitored what they labeled as one of the most transparent elections in the emerging world, but which was won by, Oops!, the “wrong” side, Hamas. The people of Ghazza had to suffer since that day.

Witness Lebanon 2009: according to Wikileaks, 100 Million Dollars were injected just to fly Lebanese emigrants from Brazil and Latin America to North Lebanon in order to vote for America’s “allies”. Lebanon between 2005 and 2010: according to no less than Jeffrey Feltman, during a recent hearing in Congress, 500 Million Dollars were spent just to pay ad-campaigns, operated by Lebanese US inspired “NGOs”, aiming at tarnishing Hezbollah’s image in Lebanese opinion.

Terrorist? Rogue? Morally unacceptable? Says who? Whose morality? Who are the holier-than-thou’s doing the accepting or the condemning? Israel and the USA, closely followed by the European Union and the UN Security Council.

One great egalitarian nation, is hopelessly mired in periodically recurring “democratic” elections (State congress(es), State senate(s),State governor(s), US congress, US Senate, US president), and thus constantly subjecting candidates to the pressures and extortion of lobbying, direct or indirect funding and block voting (read, among many vested interests, AIPAC, the Industrial/Military Complex, Big Oil, Big Banks, etc…)

How can an independent-minded, patriotic, well-meaning and honest party or candidate of statesman caliber stand a chance?

Here is what one highly respected US ex-senator, AIPAC’d out of his senate seat, once wrote:

“For many years I have felt that the situation in the Middle East was very nearly hopeless. The fundamental problem for us is that we have lost our freedom of action in the Middle East and are committed to policies that promote neither our own national interest nor the cause of peace.

AIPAC (the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee) and its allied organizations have effective working control of the electoral process. They can elect or defeat nearly any congressman or senator that they wish, with their money and coordinated organization.

J. William Fulbright (American politician, 1905-95):
The Price of Empire [1989] ch. 6, (p.183)

George Bush Senior had a similar scathing experience with AIPAC when he said the wrong thing in one of his speeches. He lost his re-election as president of the United States of America. Exceptional for an untarnished president.

We might, but history will not, forget the blind but active, direct, diplomatic, military, financial, media support of the implantation of a foreign body in the Arabic and Islamic world and the resulting rape of Palestine, the new diaspora of the Palestinians. Does the word “diaspora” sound familiar to the newer rabid million or so Jews imported from post-soviet East Europe and Russia, as compared to our otherwise Jewish Semitic cousins with whom we had lived peacefully for some 1400 years?. We will not forget the programmed humiliation of the Palestinian and eradication of his identity, the military kangaroo or civilian rubber stamp courts that legalized the jailing of thousands, the confiscation of lands, the razing of houses, the destruction of century-old olive groves, the humiliation, starving, thirsting (while ever growing Zionist implantations have grass lawns and gardens…), cluster and phosphorous bombing, maiming, murder, assassination of Palestinians, the land and water grabbing, the dislocation and renaming of Palestinian cities and communes, the quarantine and siege of Palestinian cities turning in effect large parts of what is left of Palestine into detention camps, the infamous “wall” (an anachronism, coming after the razing of the Berlin wall… reverting the Israelis by their own will and doing into a rich ghetto, but still a ghetto), the diminution, eradication, desecration of some of the holiest shrines of Islam, reducing the birthplace of Christianity to a few and isolated spots, and worst of all the international brain wash turning colonizing occupants into romantic settlers .

In their inborn naivety, the Arabs go hat-in-hand imploring the USA against these Israeli actions, forgetting that the Israelis did and continue to do in Palestine exactly what the US Americans did to the red Indians, an exact copy: From a handful of English puritan immigrants in a small enclave in Massachusetts (where they were well received in all hospitality, and helped to survive, by the native red Indians) to the gradual land encroaching and land grabbing, the “settler” halo, the repeated conclusion and almost immediate break of treaty after treaty, driving some hot-blooded young tribesmen in pure desperation into isolated irrational acts of vengeance resulting in the deliberate settler and army massacres of men, women and children, the displacement of “treaty Indians” from fertile or hunting lands into reservations in arid lifeless, waterless, plant less lands (the so-called “bad lands” of cinema cowboy lore), the eradication of the red Indian in his identity and culture, the transformation of the proud red indian into a drunken lowly servant, etc…..

Now pops up, in reality not so unexpectedly, the current Egyptian “situation” where we witnessed really genuine democratic mass protests of the prevalent portion of some 80 million people against marginalization, hunger, unemployment and oppression. The 1.5 billion US Dollar aid to Egypt, reportedly 35 billion since 1978, goes in almost its totality to arming and maintaining an army that is committed by treaty not to fight the nation’s only credible threat in the region: Israel (see U of Maryland annual polls). The other part goes to the police and security apparatus (light armored troop carriers, careening deliberate hit-and-run killer vans, tear gas, sniper rifles, etc… that have recently graced our TV screens, plus the personnel training as well as the eavesdropping and other “security” equipment that we do not see…). A fat lot of good this does to the diminished, hungry, jobless, homeless Egyptian…

The role of a once proud Egyptian fighting army has been reduced to fantasia parades and, more essentially, preserving the security of Israel (for one blatant example, enforcing the Israel-dictated inhuman blockade of Ghazza into the underfed, under heated, underpowered concentration and assassination camp it has become, epitomized in Omar Suleiman’s reported whisper in Israel’s ear “Ghazza should go hungry but not starve).

Against this deplorable situation, what is the USA’s “democratic, freedom-loving and humanitarian” preoccupation and knee-jerk response? The sacrosanct security of Israel….. Utterly mind boggling!

One is tempted to regrettably conclude that this intrinsically noble USA is totally confused, misled and out of touch! For better or worse for us, and for the rest of the world, it is the only remaining super power at the present and near future. The proclaimed change from Bush to Obama is only a change in style; it is not a change in essence. The infamously insidious position papers were written, and firmly dug in, years ago by the likes of Abrams, Feith, Kristal, Perle, Wolfowitz and Co.

When will the brain wash be sanitized and the blindfolds removed?

We are humiliated. frustrated, disgusted and fed up, awaiting in anxiety the next eruption that the implant of a belligerent state in our midst is fermenting, or being driven in pure desperation into the booby traps of intolerance and extremism.

Munzer A. Khair,
Damascus, Feb 4th 2011

Will Iranian War Ships Traveling through the Suez Canal Provoke War or Peace?

Qifa Nabki Art

Recent news that Iran will send two warships through the Suez canal to dock in Syria has set off alarm bells for Israel and the US. Defense Minister Ehud Barak walked back comments by Foreign Minister Lieberman that Israel would possibly consider a military strike against the ships.

From the moment the Egyptian people began to move against Mubarak, Iran looked for a way to capitalize on the fall of Israel’s primary Arab partner. Warships through the Suez canal would demonstrate how the balance of power was tilting in the region. There is nothing illegal about sending warships through the Suez canal. Lots of countries do it.

Iranian officials have insisted the request is in line with international regulations. They said the two vessels are headed to Syria for training. On Thursday, the two Iranian naval vessels submitted a request to transit the Suez Canal, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said.

Ahmed al-Manakhly, a senior Suez Canal official, told AP that international agreements regulate the traffic through the canal. He said that only in the case of war with Egypt may vessels be denied transit through the waterway. Al-Manakhly noted that Iran and Egypt are not at war, and said the final decision on whether to grant the vessels’ passage lies with the Defense Ministry.

Iranian warships have not been able to pass through Egypt’s Suez Canal since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iranian state TV reported Saturday.

“This is awkward — at a minimum,” said David Schenker, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “It’s destabilizing. It raises tension, particularly in this time of transition in Egypt,” Schenker said. “This is typical of Syrian-Iranian opportunism.”

Why does this change things? One obvious reason is that Iranian warships could carry weapons to Syria, Lebanon or even Hizbullah.

Israel has been successful in blocking Syria from upgrading its military capability. The US and Europe stop merchant ships headed for Syria that may carry weapons from Iran or North Korea. How can they do this? They claim it is legal within the framework of the UN embargo on Iran meant to block its nuclear program. According to the US, ships traveling from Iran can be stopped and searched for arms.

For several months in 2009, Cyprus held the Russian-owned, Cypriot-flagged Monchegorsk off the southern port of Limassol. The U.S. and other European members of the council said the shipment violated Security Council resolutions and was, according to Haaretz, “traveling to Syria from Iran with weapons destined for Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia or the Palestinian group Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip.” U.S. and U.K. envoys said the weapons shipment violated the UN arms embargo on Iran. Iran said it did not.

Syria’s ambassador to the UN at the time argued that:

“Raising the issue of this shipment is part of an orchestrated campaign to exert pressure on us to get political concessions,” Ja’afari said in the interview. “We are saying that the Security Council has had all kinds of indications of Israeli violations of international law and has never held them accountable. It is a double standard. … Ja’Afari said Syria and other Arab nations have the right to obtain weapons to defend against “Israeli invasions and aggressions.” ”

If Iran were able to send war ships to Syria, Britain and the US would have to think twice before stopping them; although, they could be easily sunk by Israeli planes.

The US guarantees Israel’s QME or Qualitative Military Edge.  In 2008, this longstanding policy was written into law and has since become the cornerstone of the U.S.-Israeli security relationship. It is defined as a guarantee to ensure:

“Israel’s ability to counter and defeat any military threat from any state, coalition of states, or non-state actors, while itself sustaining minimal casualties or damage.”

By guaranteeing Israel’s military hegemony in the region, the US has opened the way for Israel to expand its borders over the land it conquered in 1967, rather than trade it for peace. That is why Israel ‘deeply appreciates’ the U.S. veto on UN resolution condemning settlements of yesterday. As America’s ambassador to the UN, Susan E. Rice, said after her veto of the UN resolution:

“The United States has not characterized settlement activity as illegal since, 1980. And – but what we do believe firmly and have reiterated forcefully, including today, is that continued settlement activity is not legitimate.”

Realists argue that only by bringing the balance of power in the region back into equilibrium will peace be encouraged. This logic suggests that if Iran is able upgrade Syrian and Palestinian arms, peace may become more likely. Only by creating a balance of power in the region will Israel compromise rather than expand.

[End analysis]

Egypt is no longer committed to an alliance with Israel against Iran – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News – Aluf Benn

A year and a half ago, an Israel Navy submarine crossed the Suez Canal on its way from Haifa to the Red Sea, where it conducted an exercise, and back. The unusual voyage reflected the growing strategic cooperation between Israel and Egypt, which aimed a menacing message at Iran. The submarine’s crossing of the waterway demonstrated how quickly Israel could deploy its deterrent near Iran’s shores, with the tacit support of Egypt.

Once more, the canal is being used to deliver a message of deterrence – but this time the direction is reversed. Egypt is allowing Iranian warships to cross the canal, on their way to Syrian ports. Israel was publicly critical of the passage – arguing that it is a provocative move – but Egypt ignored the pressures and granted the Iranian navy permission to pass, symbolizing the change to the regional balance of power following the fall of President Hosni Mubarak.

Egypt is signaling that it is no longer committed to its strategic alliance with Israel against Iran, and that Cairo is now willing to do business with Tehran. This is precisely what Turkey has done in recent years under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Since the uprising against Mubarak, the cold peace between Egypt and Israel has cooled even further. The delivery of natural gas to Israel, which was cut off after a terrorist attack on a station in northern Sinai, has still not been resumed.

Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi returned to Cairo after decades in exile and addressed a million strong crowd in Tahrir Square on Friday, calling for the liberation of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the upcoming victory against Israel. In the past, the sheikh had expressed support for suicide attacks against Israelis and two years ago described the Holocaust as “God’s punishment of the Jews.”

The appearance of the Islamist firebrand in the square has returned hatred for Israel to the center of the public debate over Egypt’s future. Until now, the argument was that the revolution concerned domestic matters, not Egypt’s relations with the United States or Israel. The Muslim Brotherhood has also been trying to send messages of moderation to the West, but this is hardly comforting.

There is growing concern in Israel that Egypt will become a hostile front, adding to the feeling of international isolation which has only intensified since Benjamin Netanyahu became prime minister. The recent vote at the UN Security Council over the Palestinian resolution to label the settlements as illegal only increased this sense of isolation. With 14 states supporting this measure, Israel needed an American veto to foil it.

The Palestinians may have lost that vote, but the issue demonstrated which side in the conflict enjoys widespread international recognition.

Bolstered with Congressional support, Netanyahu forced U.S. President Barack Obama into the veto – which he had avoided using to date. The Americans argued that internationalization of the conflict cannot replace direct negotiations, and that forced decisions will only result in parties taking up more extreme positions.

It is not yet clear what Obama will try to get from Netanyahu in return: a plan for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the territories, or acceptance of an American peace plan. The U.S. president will argue that Washington needs to bolster its credibility in the Arab world and that Israel must contribute its lot to ensure that the new regimes in the area are friendly.

‘Clinton threatened to cancel aid to PA’ – Israel News, Ynetnews – In order to stop the PA from proposing the UN resolution declaring settlements illegal.

From Matt Duss

In terms of Israel’s security, the Wall Street Journal reported that “U.S. military aid to Israel increased markedly” in 2010, an effort that stems from policy directives the White House gave the Pentagon early in Obama’s presidency to “deepen and expand the quantity and intensity of cooperation to the fullest extent.” Speaking at the Brookings Institution in July, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Andrew Shapiro described in detail how the Obama administration is “preserving Israel’s qualitative military edge through an unprecedented increase in U.S. security assistance, stepped up security consultations, support for Israel’s new Iron Dome defensive system, and other initiatives.” President Obama raised the amount of U.S. military aid to Israel, making it the single largest expense in the 2010 foreign aid budget. He also authorized $205 million to enable Israel to complete the Iron Dome. Obama has significantly increased the level of strategic dialogue and the depth of intelligence coordination between the U.S. and Israel, particularly regarding Iran, a key Israeli security concern. According to one Israeli official, that coordination is now “even better than under President Bush.”

Since then, we’ve learned that, thanks to that intense coordination, outgoing Mossad chief Meir Dagan was able to report that Iran’s nuclear program had been set back several years.

As former Congressman Robert Wexler stated on a panel at Herzliya, the U.S. “has bent over backwards, during President Bush and even more so under President Obama, in attempts to secure Israeli security interests”:

When the Turkish government uninvited Israel to a joint military exercise campaign, what did Obama do? He withdrew the United States from the exercise, then what did he do? He brought the largest presence of US military personnel, they showed up to your [Israeli] ports, and we stayed for weeks, and then what did we do? We developed a coordinated anti-missile strategy with one purpose: to protect the Israeli people.

We have offered security package after security package after security package… We continue to engage on security issues and are not acknowledged for doing so.

Syria to EU: tackle Israel, not Egypt for Middle East peace
ANDREW RETTMAN, 17.02.2011

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – The EU should take firm action against Israeli settlement-building and human rights abuses instead of playing politics in Egypt if it wants to calm tension in the Middle East, Syria’s ambassador to the Union has said.

Speaking to EU observer in Brussels on Wednesday (16 February), Mohamad Ayman Soussan said the main danger of conflict in the region comes from the Arab-Israeli problem not the revolution in Egypt or Tunisia.

“Our European friends have a responsibility here, because Europe is the principal economic partner of Israel. They have all the means at their disposal to make Israel reconsider its position vis-a-vis international law. Europe must assume this responsibility if it ever intends to take its rightful place in the international order,” he explained.

“Where in Europe do you see such a level of brutality against demonstrators? Where do you see roads that can be used only by one kind of people? Israel practices apartheid and the EU assists this everyday through its ongoing relations.”

Wikileaks: Origin: Embassy Manama
Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
SUBJECT: LEBANON TRIBUNAL: BAHRAIN SUPPORTIVE; NO FINANCIAL COMMITMENT

1. (C) Pol/Econ Chief met with MFA Undersecretary Abdulaziz bin Mubarak Al-Khalifa on February 7 to review the Secretary’s note verbale and talking points A-G (reftel). SIPDIS Al-Khalifa expressed strong support for the tribunal and Bahrain’s commitment to working cooperatively to promote peace and stability in Lebanon, but said that limited resources meant that the GOB would likely not be able to contribute financially. Al-Khalifa said that the GOB would continue its public and private support of PM Siniora’s government, and agreed that obstacles to the presidential election must be removed. He added that it would be “absolutely unacceptable” for Hizballah to enter the government. Al-Khalifa said that “the time has come to talk publicly about Syria’s uncooperative stance,” and that he believed the Arab states would send a strong message to Syria at the Damascus Summit. He hinted that King Hamad would no attend..”

From the Lede – New York Times Blog

According to the blog Syria News Wire, a demonstration in Damascus, the Syrian capital, on Thursday, caught on video posted on YouTube, was not part of a wave of antigovernment unrest sweeping the Arab world.

The blog, which is written from Damascus and London, explains the video this way:

An unprecedented scene in Syria this morning as an estimated 1500 people took to the streets in a spontaneous protest.

They were angry that the son of a shop owner had been allegedly beaten by a traffic police officer. So they went on to the streets at Hariqa, just south of Souq Al-Hamidiyah in Damascus. From the video, it seems as if the protest spread down to the western end of Medhat Pasha.

They chant “the Syrian people will not be humiliated”, interspersed with, “shame, shame” and “with our soul, with our blood, we sacrifice for you Bashar”. That’s a very Syrian way of saying they were furious at the police, not the president. Also, note there was no chanting of “the people want the fall of the regime” (the words used in Tunisia and Egypt, and now in Yemen and Bahrain).

At the start of the video, almost every person in is holding up a mobile phone. With mobile phone video cameras plus Twitter and blogs to distribute the footage, public servants face a degree of accountability that they have never faced before.

In a surreal moment, the Minister of the Interior arrives and asks the crowd why they are demonstrating. He has now promised an investigation.

Another Syrian blogger, a student in Aleppo who writes on Twitter as Seleucid, called the video of the protest “proof that the Syrians can do it as much as anybody, they just don’t want to.”

This video and commentary from the Syrian blogosphere comes just three days after a teenage blogger, brought into court chained and blindfolded, was sentenced to five years in jail by a court in Syria. As Reuters reported, the blogger, “Tal al-Molouhi, a high school student who has been under arrest since 2009 and is now 19, had written articles saying she yearned for a role in shaping the future of Syria and supporting the Palestinian cause. Lawyers said the judge gave no evidence or details as to why she had been charged.”

Letter From Herzliya, Neocon Woodstock
Matthew Duss
February 14, 2011

…As a result of the revolution in Egypt, a key theme that emerged at the conference was hostility to Arab democracy and the assumption that it would bring only chaos and danger for Israel—a mantra that also exposed a division between Israeli neoconservatives and some of their American comrades. “In the Arab world, there is no room for democracy,” Israeli Major General Amos Gilead told a nodding audience. “This is the truth. We prefer stability.” Former Israeli Ambassador to the US Zalman Shoval scoffed that George W. Bush’s freedom agenda’s “principle accomplishment seems to be the victory of Hamas in Gaza.” Boaz Ganor, the executive director of the IDC’s International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, warned, “When these people [Arabs] vote, they are voting for what Coca-Cola calls the real thing and that is fundamentalism.” Shmuel Bar, Director of Studies at the IDC’s Institute of Policy and Strategy, declared that the US had “become an agent of revolutionary change in the Middle East, at the expense of stability.”

In opening remarks to a late-addition panel on “Stability vs. Democracy,” progressive analyst Brian Katulis—one of a handful of non-conservatives invited to participate in the conference—declared the panel’s title false choice. Calling America’s “continuing addiction to dictators” part of “a cold war hangover,” Katulis stressed the regional trends driving events in Egypt—massive unemployment, millions of disillusioned youth—and suggested that Israel and the United States would be wise to anticipate them. “There’s a delusion that we can prevent these trends,” said Katulis. “And we’ll probably hear some of these delusions on this panel.”

As if to immediately make Katulis’s point for him, Martin Kramer of Israel’s conservative Shalem Center began by mocking the Obama administration’s repeated assertions that the regional “status quo is unsustainable,” suggesting that it should be taken as the administration’s motto. “In Israel, we are for the status quo,” Kramer said. “Not only do we believe the status quo is sustainable, we think it’s the job of the US to sustain it.”

Responding to Kramer’s remark afterward, Israeli analyst Meir Javedanfar said, “The first stage after a divorce or death is denial. This is followed by anger, then bargaining, depression and acceptance.” Kramer “is still in the denial stage. His statement shows that he still has not realized that the relationship with Egypt is over.”

But however much in denial, Kramer’s and Bar’s comments get at something real among conservative Israeli foreign policy elite: a sense that America, under both Bush and Obama, has failed to apply its power correctly in the region. This inability to achieve certain goals has consequently led to a perception of American decline (never mind that the refusal of allies like Netanyahu to honor American requests contributes to that perception). Many also voiced concerns that Obama’s treatment of Mubarak would cause other US client states to question America’s commitments.

“Obama is perceived, in a moment of truth, to have abandoned an ally,” said Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog, now a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute. “It’s unfair, but that’s the perception.” Herzog also doesn’t characterize Israeli views on democracy as harshly as some others. “Many, if not most, Israelis would lean at this point towards stability” rather than democracy, Herzog said, “not because they don’t want to see democracy around them—they do—but because they are highly skeptical whether the upheaval in Egypt will lead to real democracy in the foreseeable future.” And many Israelis are deeply concerned over potential negative developments in the meantime….

MONTAGNARD writes

Here is Noble Energy’s presentation to analysts and investors showing estimated reserves in the Cyprus A, Leviathan, Tamar and Dalit fields off of Israel and Lebanon, as projected by 3D seismic studies.

The area with good prospects (yellow) would fall on both sides of a line stretching west from Ras Naqura, which should be the line marking the territorial waters of Lebanon and Palestine (Israel). Noble has only drilled Tamar and Dalit (red).

Other studies have projected more hydrocarbon reserves on the north side of the line than to the south. Noble can drill directional and horizontal wells and tap the northern resources and claim that it is from the Tamar and Dalit wells.

You can read it here:

Latest Economic Headlines from Syria Report

Syrian American bilateral trade rose more than 50 percent in 2010 on the back of an increase in the global prices of food commodities and oil products.

Economy: CPI Rises 6.3 Percent in Syria as Food Prices Post 2-Digit Increase

Syria’s government bonds: Captive Markets
Feb 17th 2011 | DAMASCUS | from PRINT EDITION

TRYING to flog sovereign debt three days after the fall of a neighbouring president appears audacious. But the Syrian government’s offering of three billion Syrian pounds ($63.9m) of six-month bills and three-year bonds on February 14th—following a trial run in December, the first in decades—was less risky than it looked. Nine banks bought, and the auction was oversubscribed.

The sale reflects the relative stability of Syria’s government. But it has more to do with the scarce choices available to domestic banks, the only permitted bidders. Fourteen private banks, all of which are subsidiaries of Arab banks, have opened since Syria’s centrally planned economy started to creak open in 2000. But they suffer from limited currency convertibility and a lack of investment opportunities. Undeveloped credit scoring and a lack of transparency hamper their ability to issue retail loans. Surplus liquidity currently sits interest-free in Syria’s central bank.

That gives the government plenty of scope to drive down its borrowing costs. Private banks groan about yields below the rate of inflation: the six-month bills yielded 1% and the three-year bonds just over 2.7%. “The government is in effect asking private banks to lend it money at a subsidised rate,” moans one banker. “But we have no other option.”

More sales will follow: this year’s projected bond issuance is 30 billion Syrian pounds. Syria’s government has long been urged by the IMF to issue bonds to finance its budget deficit—funded until now by internal borrowing. The deficit is modest, predicted at 5.8% of GDP this year, thanks to a rise in the price of oil. But Syria’s oil reserves are diminishing, and plans to do away with subsidies may be diluted as the government keeps a wary eye on regional unrest. The country is also looking to invest billions of dollars in infrastructure projects.

What the government does not want, however, is to rely on foreign creditors for its borrowing. Syria is not planning to issue international bonds. A preoccupation with sovereignty and problems with transparency contribute to that, says Abdulkader Husrieh, a local financial analyst. And complain though they might, domestic banks can be counted upon to lap up the debt.

Syrian Wheat, Barley Production Drops on Crop Disease, Weather
By Lina Ibrahim and Nayla Razzouk – Feb 16, 2011

Syrian wheat, barley and cotton production fell in 2010 because of a crop disease and adverse weather, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

Wheat output dropped 17 percent from the prior year to 3.08 million metric tons as the fungal disease known as yellow rust hit the crop, the ministry said in a statement. The government had estimated production at 4.5 million tons, it said.

The ministry asked farmers to plant wheat instead of more typical winter crops such as barley as a result of a drought affecting domestic production of the staple grain, Al-Baath newspaper reported last month.

Barley production declined 20 percent to 680,000 tons, the ministry said. Adverse weather meant that output amounted to 43 percent of the government’s 1.6 million-ton goal, it said.

Cotton production slid 28 percent to 472,500 tons, the ministry said, compared with the government’s 681,000-ton estimate.

DAMASCUS, Feb. 12, 2011 — Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said here on Saturday that his country is keen on building a strategic relationship with Syria, Syrian official SANA news agency reported.

The president also stressed Iraq’s readiness to develop ties with Syria at all levels, when meeting with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad on bilateral ties.

Meanwhile, the two leaders also talked about speeding up the implementation of the agreements signed during Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s visit to Syria in October, 2010, and the recent visit of Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Naji Otri to Iraq In January, the report said.

Syria and Iraq resumed diplomatic relations in November, 2006 after 26 years of rupture.

Bilateral Trade Reaches USD 2.5 Billion as Turkish Interest in Syrian Market Expands
Bilateral trade between Syria and Turkey expanded 43 percent last year to reach a total of USD 2.5 billion, as Turkey’s presence across various sectors of the Syrian economy is increasing at a fast pace.

Strait Tms [Reg]: Help us build up infrastructure, Syria tells Malaysia
2011-02-14 By Rupa Damodaran

SYRIA, which has embarked on a comprehensive reform programme that offers the private sector a bigger role, wants Malaysian businesses to be a major player in its infrastructure development.

Deputy Prime Minister of Syria Abdullah Al-Dardari, who is in Kuala Lumpur, said the country’s public private partnership (PPP) also provides opportunities in transportation.

Speaking at a dialogue meeting with Malaysian businesses yesterday, Abdullah said Syria is eyeing investments totalling US$100 billion (RM304 billion) between 2011 and 2015, with US$63 billion (RM191.52 billion) from the private sector.

“We are keen in co-developing an industrial park with Malaysians in the east region, which provides the right location for investors to export to Iraq, Europe and the Gulf,” he said.

Investors in the park will enjoy 10 years’ tax breaks and 100 per cent equity in business ownership.

Malaysia is keen to be part of Syria’s development in areas covering roads, highways, bridges, water works, housing, telecommunications, solid waste management and power supply.

Both countries see a close cooperation, which will provide access to the Asean and Asian market as well as the growing Middle East.

Read more: Help us build up infrastructure, Syria tells Malaysia

Government Hikes Fuel Oil Price

In a bid to curb its growing subsidies bill, the Syrian Government has decided a steep increase in the price of fuel oil sold to manufacturing concerns starting April this year, according to the local press.

Iraqis to be Issued Syrian Visas on Borders Starting February 1

Iraqis will be given visas on the Syrian border again starting February 1, following a decision by the Syrian Government.

Syrian President Dismisses Aleppo Mayor

Maan Shibli, the head of the municipal council of Aleppo, the country’s second largest city, has been dismissed by the Syrian President.

26-01-2011
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Further Improvements Ahead As Syria Reverses 10 Years Of Oil Production Decline

Syria’s first oil output gain in a decade has been accompanied by a near-doubling of gas output. With the country due to award exploration blocks and complete its new refinery in the near future, 2011 is set to be the most positive year for the Syrian oil and gas industry since US sanctions were imposed in 2004.

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One friend writes of the firing of the Aleppo Mayor:

It was truly astonishing that he had not been touched so far. All his guys were. the president’s last trip may have sealed it. He met with both the acting Foreign Minister of Iran and Foreign Minister of Argentina in Aleppo, which is unusual. He seems to have spent more time in Aleppo this time. last time he personally met with Maan Ober for two hours. I think he really wanted to give him a chance. It seems that in the end it was too much even for him to handle. The rest of the guys were all just found guilty.

Mahmoud Ramadan was going to prison in Aleppo and they are awaiting judge’s final decision on how long he will be there for. I think that when these guys were heading to prison, Maan could not just carry on. This is a very significant development. I now believe that the fight against corruption has taken a more serious step forward. That Maan’s mom is an iconic woman in the party and is an Alawi did is a testimony to that. The president trusted Maan. he gave him incredible powers given that he is merely the head of the municipality (raees baladiye). at one stage he was more powerful than the governor himself, thanks to an open line to the palace. but, Maan like all others could not resist the temptation of making millions over millions. having inside information on the tanzeem meant that a piece of real estate can jump 8-10 fold if it becomes part of the tanzeem (the code changes from agricultural land to residential or commercial).

I would like to think that this is a turning point. Future city officials will think twice before engaging in such wide-scale corruption. But the damage is already done. Large parts of Aleppo’s residential areas have been damaged for good, thanks to terrible instances of granting commercial licenses in the middle of first class residential areas. lots of people have made hundreds of millions and this has made people very very angry. Simple corporate governance procedures were never followed by government officials. on Fridays, Maan would sit with a group of close friends at a coffee shop and discuss what was going on in the city. They were clearly privy to information and even if they were not, the “appearance” of him sitting with business people openly in a coffee shop is not kosher.  It is not good public policy to allow for this corruption to continue. It adds to the resentment of the masses towards the growing income gap.

Will President Bashar Assad hold his nerve?Syria’s economy
Jan 20th 2011 | DAMASCUS | from PRINT EDITION
The market must prevail

SYRIA has been edging away from a centrally planned socialist economy to a “social market” one. “The last five years have been about deconstructing the socialist ideology in favour of the market,” says an adviser to the government. “The next five will be about implementing it.” That means big cuts in subsidies and painful belt-tightening for Syria’s far-from-opulent masses. But will the government, seeing unrest simmer in the region in the wake of Tunisia’s upheaval, hold its nerve?

The proposed changes risk breaking the social contract long upheld by President Bashar Assad’s Baath party. The old deal meant low wages and secure jobs, while providing life’s basics, such as food and fuel, very cheaply. The new plan envisages raising cash by issuing government bonds and soliciting foreign investment to the tune—it is hoped—of $55 billion. As subsidies shrink, the price of fuel, electricity, water, transport and food should rise to market levels.

Fearing unrest, the government recently wobbled. It announced a 72% rise in heating-oil benefits for public workers and froze the price of electricity. But it sorely needs more cash. Oil revenue has dipped as the population, which has doubled to 22m since the mid-1980s, continues to soar. The government cannot put off its reforms for long.

The IMF has for years been urging Syria to do away with subsidies. In 2008 the government leapt ahead of its counterparts in the region, notably Egypt, by raising petrol prices. It removed subsidies for fertiliser but kept many items, including electricity and food, artificially cheap. Direct energy subsidies still cost Syria around 5% of GDP a year, according to the government and the IMF.

Farming, a mainstay of the economy, is also being liberalised. An agricultural fund has been set up to replace blanket subsidies. The list of key crops, which have their prices set by the government as the sole buyer, has been pared down from seven a decade ago to three today: cotton, sugar beet and wheat—deemed the “red-line” crop since it is the basis for bread, the people’s staple. But Syria’s land is hard-pressed to meet demand, let alone provide for a strategic reserve.

The steady introduction of market reforms since 2005 has yet to make a big difference. Opening up business has so far benefited only a few. Property has been bought for speculation. Food prices have risen faster than wages. Quite a few industrialists have seen their businesses founder in the face of cheaper goods from China and Turkey. Plans to ease the pain by creating a welfare safety net have fallen behind. People scrimp to pay for private education and health care because state provision, due to be overhauled in the next five years, is so bad. “The growing wealth gap is threatening the middle class,” says a local economist.

Elections due this year are sure to be tightly controlled. People are still too scared to protest. And events in Tunisia may make the government even warier about pushing ahead with its reforms.

from PRINT EDITION | Middle East & Africa

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Will Syria become the Singapore of the Middle East? – Ayoon Wa Azan:
Thu, 20 January 2011
Jihad el-Khazen

My friend Nemir Kirdar, the President of the investment bank Investcorp, believes that. He proposed the idea as we were with other friends and our families on vacation for the Western holiday season. While everyone would be singing, I and Nemir would sit in the corner of the house or the restaurant, discuss what we know about Singapore and Syria, and study the possibilities.

There are several requirements for a given country to become a tiger economy, which are present in both Syria and Singapore, while some fundamental differences between both countries exist.

Nemir Kirdar believes that Singapore, not the United States, is the best model to be followed by Arab countries, specifically Syria. He reminded me that the founding fathers sought to build democracy and freedom first in the United States, and then the economy, whereas a country like Singapore (and China) sought to build institutions and advance its economy first, and democracy second. Since I agree with Nemir that we are an undemocratic people, I went along with him in what regards the idea of building a prosperous economy that would enable the government to gain popular support, and at which point democracy becomes possible…..

President Bashar al-Assad began a policy of cautious economic openness, after decades of isolation, and a Western economic embargo for political (read Israeli) reasons. I believe that Syria is capable if it begins a policy of economic openness out of conviction, rather than out of considering that it is an unnecessary evil. There is a trio in place to push the economy forward, consisting of Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Dardari, who comes from the world of media and finance, the Minister of Economic Affairs Lamia Asi, who is an expert in modern technology, and the Minister of Finance Mohammed Hussein, who is rather familiar with the pulse of the street…..

After a later session in London, I agreed with Nemir Kirdar that Dr. Bashar al-Assad can do in Syria what Lee Kuan Yew and his comrades did in Singapore. The nature of the regime in both countries is similar, and so is the influence wielded by the ruler. Meanwhile, the human and natural resources of Syria are much bigger. What Syria is in want of are institutions for an open, competitive and creative economy, while corruption needs to be eliminated, all under the supervision of an independent rule of law.

George Saghir responds to Samir Aita’s Critique
by George Saghir
for Syria Comment
February 16, 2011

What I would have loved to read in Mr. Aita’s critique of my article – What Does the Future Hold for Syria – is a road map for how Syria can achieve its objective of 7-8 percent economic growth. I was looking forward to a discussion on the role of the public sector and the merits (or not) of privatization. For the record, I am in the privatization camp. I was hoping that I would learn what Syria should do to attract the enormous amounts of foreign investments that its government has set as a top policy objective. Sadly, Mr. Aita decided to spend his energy refuting my population growth estimates and accusing me of being part of a discourse talking about Arabs who are “underdeveloped and making a lot of children”.

The population growth assumption:

In comment number 50 in my post, I reiterated to one of the readers the source and logic behind my data. The latest statistic from Damascus is sourced from end of 2009 data. My source is the UN’s population division. The tables can be accessed by visiting their population database which is under “the 2008 revision”. Readers are invited to do so themselves. Those who decide to do so will notice that the tables are listed in 5 year increments. The population growth rate for the 2005-2010 is clearly listed at 3.26%.

Mr. Aita explains that this number is due to the sudden rise of the population in 2006-2007 as Syrian experienced the arrival of around 1.5 million Iraqis. If Mr. Aita is correct in his hypothesis that Iraqi refugees are behind the 3.25% and that Syria has no population problem to worry about then great. Perhaps he should arrange for a meeting with the country’s health minister and assure you him of such since he said the following just a few days ago:

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The health minister is not alone of course. Various government officials including the Prime Minister himself have warned of high population growth rate over the past few years. Hopefully, they don’t also belong to my group of people who are accusing Arabs of being “underdeveloped and making a lot of children”.

Where Mr. Aita does agree with me is on the low participation rates for women. Not only does he repeat my point here but he goes a step further and informs us that:

“Not only is the participation of women in the labor force low in Syria, but it has declined significantly!”

It would have helped of course if he would have shared with us his reasoning of how the low and falling labor participation rates for women would be consistent with a falling population rates to 1.69%. I was under the impression that a population rate of as low as 1.69% for Syria would be consistent with much higher women labor participation rates especially that day-care help is not widespread in our society. This was again a missed opportunity for us to learn more from Mr. Aita.

Unemployment:

I have spent almost 20 years analyzing the relationship between economic growth and the performance of the labor market in the U.S. My note for Syria Comment was not a research paper on growth-employment dynamics. If he felt that my argument was too simplistic then he ought to know that this was precisely what the objective was. Of course, employment and growth are not automatically or perfectly correlated.

That a person with Mr. Aita intellect would say that I want “consciously or not – that Syria follows the fate of Egypt” is indeed astonishing as he himself phrased it.

We are told that consecutive Egyptian governments have tried to increase growth and reduce the population growth rate as their only slogans for “more than two decades”.

This is an inaccurate statement.

Egypt failed to grow its per capita nominal income for nearly two decades. The country’s average nominal GDP per capita was little changed at $2160 in 2009 compared with $2155 in 1989. The economic reforms did not start till 2004 when the former President was finally convinced that he needs to do something to increase growth. Thanks to corruption and cronyism these reforms never trickled down and the simplistic per capita nominal income does a fine job at explaining why Egypt has struggled of late.

Subsidies:

Mr. Aita and the IMF article IV seem to know more about the extent of the subsidies in Syria than the government itself. I do stand by my $8 billion number.

Politically speaking, reducing the subsidies in this environment is not going to be easy as I alluded to in my post. This does not make the subsidies a sound government policy. Subsidies distort the price signals that allocate resources efficiently in an economy. This is a fact. As for the public sector, Mr. Aita defends the sector and the people who decide to seek employment in it. Indeed, Syrians are rationale individuals. The public sector is a magnet for those in the labor force. Government jobs come with a formal contract, health insurance, retirement benefits, maternity leave, “and a minimum level of dignity even when the salaries are low”. It is of course also a job for life so it comes with tremendous security that the private sector will not match. While no one disputes the above, this is hardly a rationale or an endorsement of the sector as a viable economic model.

My “dependency on the state” comment:

The readers seem to have responded negatively when I inferred that the Syrian public has grown dependent on the state. This is fair. Perhaps a better way to have phrased my idea was to say that the state has made the public dependent on it. Most government programs are easier to get into than getting out of. Subsidies and publicly owned enterprises are no exceptions. The Syrian state spends an enormous amount of subsidies on basic commodities and especially energy products. The public criticizes the government for the lack of services ignoring the cost of subsidies and state employment costs. Were the state to have the hindsight of 20/20, there is very little probability that it would have designed such a subsidy system in the first place. I strongly believe that it would not have chosen to be in the business of running so many businesses either. Regrettably, it did.

There is no doubt that the subsidies help cushion the gap between income and expenditures for the low income groups. While the poor benefits, the rich benefits by more. The average Syrian family consumes 600 liters of mazot per year. The range of consumption is 200 to 2000 liters. The government has recently raised the price per liter from SYP 7 TO SYP 20. The family that consumes 200 liters had to endure an extra outlay of $56 a year.   The family that consumes 2000 liters (presumable the wealthy), had to incur 10 times that.
Total subsidies on total energy products (including electricity and fuel) add up to approximately $5.6 billion a year.

How does an average family benefit from say Mazot subsidies?

Given that the average consumption is 600 liters, monthly outlays on mazot add up to SYP 12,000 a year or SYP 1000 a month. The statistics office has recently announced that average median family expenditure on all items is close to SYP 30,000 a month. This means that spending on energy is 1/30 of monthly family spending on all items. The people who benefit from the subsidies are therefore not necessarily the average and poor income families. It is the industrialists who use cheap subsidized fuel and electricity to power plants. It is the smugglers who empty their tanks across the border.

When it comes to electricity, it costs the government SYP 8 per kilowatt. It is sold to households for SYP 2 and to industry for SYP 4. The higher rates only apply when one consumes as high as 2000 kilowatts. It is easy to do the math. There are 5 million household and 3.7 million independent dwellings in Syria.

Education is free in Syria. It should be for the poor. But why should the wealthy end up getting the same benefit. My own parents did not need the subsidies to send me to a Syrian university. The money that they received in my subsidized education at the time should have gone to a hospital or to an infrastructure project.

In sum, subsidies cannot be a blanket right for every Syrian citizen. The government must find a way to do a targeted approach where only the needy receive the help they so desperately need. Robbing from paul (hospitals, roads, infrastructure) to give to peter (my parents who can afford buying sugar, rice, mazot and electricity at market prices) does not strike me as a sustainable business model. With time, the government will go broke opening its subsidy checkbook to 23 million Syrians and growing.

More on the Syrian PMI:

Having checked my name following the posting of my note, Mr. Aita came across the realization that I was “a specialist in financial derivatives”. That discovery seems to have raised his concerns about the fate of our beloved country that has “charged” a person like me with publishing a “reliable” indicator. Mr. Aita should take comfort from the fact that The Syrian government is not directly or indirectly involved in this project. Both Banque Audi and I were not charged by anyone with carrying out this project.

The PMI stands for the Purchasing Managers Index. I have been following this economic indicator since the mid 1980’s. It is widely monitored by both policy makers and global investors. Over the past few years, the index was developed for an increasing list of economies thanks to its simplicity and timeliness. Over time, the index does an excellent job at tracking a country’s GDP. More specifically, it helps indicate whether business conditions in a country are improving, decelerating or staying the same this month versus last month.

Like many developing countries, Syria suffers from the lack of timely data. Following a personal meeting with the chief Executive of Banque Audi –Syria during one of my visits to the country, a discussion took place about the merits of looking into whether such an initiative can take place in Syria. After a few months of discussions, we decided to undertake such an endeavor. Those in charge of calculating the index in the U.S, Saudi and the UAE were contacted. The formulas and methodologies were checked and agreed upon. The success of the index will be based on the response rate from Syrian businesses. This was explained during a meeting with key business owners back in December. Senior members of the Syrian government were notified and were present during the launch. It is important to reiterate that this is a private undertaking. The Syrian government has not “charged” anyone to carry out this effort. Government officials have made it clear that they will support and encourage similar private initiatives and that the presence of Mr. Dardari at the launch was not an exclusive endorsement of this project at the expense of other similar future endeavors. The role of the Syrian government, and especially the office of Mr. Dardari, was exemplary. They supported the project but at an arm’s length. Lastly, it is worth noting that Saghir Advisory Services was recently created just to carry out this none-for-profit initiative. More details especially under the frequently asked questions (About Us tab) can be found by visiting this website.

The U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has recently been renamed the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) report on business:

The Syria PMI is modeled on the US version and will use the same exact methodology.

What Does the Future Hold for Syrian Economists?
By Samir Aita
For Syria Comment
13 January 2011

Dear Josh,

You have published a post on the Syrian economy entitled “What does the future hold for Syria?” by George Saghir. I think it should be answered with the following comments:

Syrian and UN statistics have shown that the Syrian population growth rate has been decreasing steadily since the 1990s. Of course, we still need to wait until the next census (in 2014) to have a precise figure, but everybody agrees on the following facts:

o   All estimates (official, UNDP, IMF) put the present population growth rate somewhere between 2.0 and 2.4% (in 2007), decreasing continuously since the 1980s; and UNPP estimates that it will fall to an average of 1.69% for the period 2010-2015;

o   An average growth rate of population in the period 2005-2010 has been put by the UNDP at 3.6%; but this is due to the sudden rise of population in 2006-2007 as Syria experienced the arrival of around 1.5 million Iraqis, which is an exceptional phenomenon;

So making an analysis on the basis of a comparison between this 3.6% figure, as if it were the actual figure of population growth, and the 1.24% in Turkey is erroneous by any means; and talking about family planning and making other cultural assessments on false basis looks like the discourse talking about Arabs who are “underdeveloped and making a lot of children”.

Beside this major error in the reasoning, the demographic issue could be better tackled addressing the facts as they are:

o   Syria is experiencing today the arrival to the labor market of the young generation born in the 1980s and 1990s. During that period, population growth rates were as high as 3.5% yearly (and this was the case of many developing countries). The major issue for policies is how to find jobs for this “wave” of youth, now and not in 20 years. The number of jobs created every year is much lower than what is necessary: only around 100,000 are created while 300,000 are needed at constant participation rate and keeping the high unemployment rate stable (in some Syrian regions this ratio of job creation to needs is much lower).

o   The employment issue is aggravated today by the acceleration of rural-urban migration, especially following the drought and, more importantly, due to the lack of development policies in some regions such as the Jazira, Ghab, or East Idleb. This means that the need for job creation in urban areas is even higher, as jobs are constantly lost in rural areas.

o   Many of the 1.5 million Iraqis who came to Syria in 2006-2007 (around 7% of the total population!) are now residing in the country and have de facto entered the labor force. A large number is working in the informal sector, which already accounts for 1/3 of the total working population. Syria should be proud that it is a haven to all Arabs in times of difficulty, but the government policies (and the analysis of economists) should address this issue as a fact, seeking solutions.

Unemployment and Economic Growth

Here also, the analysis presented does not address the major issue: that the unemployment rates stated in statistics, although high, still hide a significant part of the reality. In fact, the Syrian labor force (the total of those who want to work) has almost stagnated in Syria since 2000, despite the population growth and the youth wave. Not only is the participation of women in the labor force low in Syria, but it has declined significantly! This is mostly due to the acceleration of rural-urban migration. Women who lose their work in agriculture cannot even seek work in the informal suburbs where they now reside. The same phenomenon has been observed in most of the Arab Mediterranean countries, including Egypt.

Also, it is not clear how the statistics account for the Syrians actually working, with different degrees of seasonality, in Lebanon and Jordan. Their number is significant, at around 7% of the total labor force. They are probably considered as working in Syrian statistics, while they work and gain their revenues abroad. Additionally, not only is the unemployment rate the highest amongst youth, but it is even higher for the educated youth, who tend in large part to migrate abroad. Finally, official Syrian statistics clearly show that most of the new jobs are created in the informal sector.

The demographic/employment reasoning made by Saghir is thus erroneous and simplistic. This applies in particular to the analysis on the relation between the growth rate of the economy and unemployment. In fact, there is no automatic relation between the two, as many countries have relatively high growth rates, high (two digit) unemployment rates and a large informal sector. It all depends on how “socially friendly” the economic growth is, in what economic sectors it is developing, and on how this growth is distributed between the different categories of the population and the different regions of a country, etc.

All Arab Mediterranean countries (non-oil dominated), including Tunisia and Egypt, have experienced in the last decade the same characteristics: moderate economic growth around 5% in real terms, high unemployment, especially amongst youth and the educated, and most job creation in the informal sector. Growth was mostly in rent-seeking activities: real-estate, monopolies (now mostly private), etc. All these countries have considered their youth, and especially their educated youth, as a liability and not an asset. All wanted to emulate the “Dubai model” of a free trade and real-estate zone using foreign workers, forgetting that they have a population that needs jobs and for whom the growth should be directed.  Look what has happened to them.

Emulate Turkey and not Egypt

Of course, one dreams of a better development scheme for Syria. But in many aspects, the way economic reforms have recently been implemented in Syria is based more on the model of Dubai and Egypt than on that of Turkey. This requires a long discussion.

But what is striking is precisely what the paper/post had chosen as the two major issues: that what is important is increasing the growth rate and reducing the population growth rate – and only these two. Does the author know that consecutive Egyptian governments have used precisely these two major issues as their only driving arguments and slogans for more than two decades? Using them to advise the Syrian authorities on what is to be done, to follow the Turkish model and not the Egyptian, means that the author of the paper/post wants – consciously or not – that Syria follows the fate of Egypt.  Astonishing!

By the way, UNDP estimates the average population growth rate for Syria and Turkey for the period 2010-2015 at 1.69% and 1.1% respectively. Of course, Syria will get a lower ratio with the rise of education and standard of living. But does the author know that the areas and regions which still experience high population growth still lack many basic services, such as clean water, sewage systems, health, education, etc.? Concentrating on family planning in such deprived regions is surreal. Major services must be provided to Syria’s poorest populations before the state concentrates on family planning.

A word on subsidies

The paper/post focuses its criticism on “subsidies” and on “the culture of dependence” amongst Syrians, while stating that the people spend 50% of their revenues on food, and that the government spends US$8 billion on subsidies as a result of its “socialist strategy”.  This is really too much: this figure of 8 billion is equivalent to half of the total Syrian government budget! I know that some government officials had advanced the figure of US$7 billion, but this is rhetoric, as even the IMF Article IV report puts the figure between US$1 and US$2 billion, including the cost of the recent measures to help the poorest categories of the population.

One wonders why the paper/post focuses on “subsidies” after the recent rise in oil derivative prices in Syria, and the liberalization of the market for many to agricultural and industrial inputs. That’s really strange when the consumer prices of oil derivatives are now almost the same as in neighboring countries, and while half these consumer prices in these countries consist of taxes!!!

The author of the paper/post should know that this focus on “subsidies” has been also a major rhetoric of the Egyptian government for decades (along with that of the burden of population), and that the angry crowds in Cairo are also answering it today by asking for the indexation of salaries on inflation, and for the dismantling of the private monopolies which have created lucrative “rent-seeking” businesses costing a lot to society. The optimization of financial resources is more complex than the simplistic rhetoric of the author of the paper/post, and that of some Syrian government officials who still insist on pushing Syria to follow the fate of Egypt.

Such neo-liberal types of rhetoric really don’t want to tackle the real issues of the economy and the society. A more in-depth analysis could try to answer some questions like: isn’t it a subsidy when a government licenses an energy- and water-intensive industry in the region of Damascus, while it still has to provide these resources at a high cost? Isn’t it a creation of a “rent” when the government suddenly raises the minimum capital requirement for private banks by eight fold, forcing the banks to focus on the speculative (real-estate, etc) sectors and closing the door to competition (by the way, the minimum capital requirement for a bank is much lower in Turkey than in Syria)?

What to think, also, about the other rhetoric of the “culture of dependence”? How many in Syria really depend on the government? Those in the public sector who need a second job in the day to make their living? The third of the working population in the informal sector? Or the other third working in the formal private sector, mostly without employment contracts, social security, or retirement schemes?  Or maybe the unemployed who have no unemployment compensation scheme? Or the elderly (above 65) who still have to work or depend on their families, as very few of them have decent retirement schemes, and guess how the purchasing power of these retirements had evolved in the last 10 years? Or maybe the youth where unemployment is the highest? And what about public hospitals, which used to be free of charge for all and are now asked to generate a major part of their revenues from their patients?

This rhetoric on the “culture of dependence” is often used by those neo-liberals to characterize the fact that many register to get a job in the public sector. Is it “dependence” when this is the only sector with proper employment offices? Is it “dependence” when women mostly seek work in the public sector precisely because of what they can get there: a formal contract, a minimum wage, an advancement scheme, health insurance, retirement benefits, maternity leave, and a minimum level of dignity even when the salaries are low? Is it “dependence” when most of employers do not respect labor laws and regulations, and the government does not enforce them? Take a guess what the share of “self-employment” and informal employment is in the formal private sector?

What happened and is happening in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria and elsewhere in the Arab world shows that caring about people’s incomes and living conditions can’t be treated lightly with such rhetoric.

Conclusion

Those interested in more serious analysis are invited to read the papers and discussions of the Syrian economists of the Syrian Economic Sciences Association (published in www.syrianeconomy.org), knowing that this association groups all schools of thoughts in economy. They are also invited to read the excellent assessment made by the National Prospective Report for Syria in 2025, especially on population and regional development, as well as the population reports of the Syrian Commission for Family Affairs.

Frankly speaking, even the discussions inside the present Syrian government (Central Bureau of Statistics, Regional Planning authority, State Planning Commission, Deputy Prime Ministry for Economic Affairs, etc.) are more linked to reality than the article you have published, despite the rhetoric of some officials and their advisers, and despite the absence of action or will.

Finally, I really don’t see what favor you are doing Syria by publishing such articles that have not been fact checked and reviewed by peers. Particularly these days, when revolutions are breaking out. I don’t know George Saghir, who is a specialist in financial derivatives (subprimes… etc)[1] but I did notice that he is now in charge of publishing a “reliable” monthly indicator for Syria.

In this context, what does the future hold for Syrian “economists”… And for the Syrian economy?

* Samir AITA is member of the Syrian Economic Sciences Association and President of the Cercle des Economistes Arabes

Ibrahim Hamidi in al-Hayat

Local elections, new parliamentary elections, as well as party elections under new rules. These are some of the reforms that President Assad is promising Syria.

President Assad suggested in his WSJ interview that Syria was beginning a determined policy of reform. Hamidi outlines in greater detail what the President has in mind. In 2005, during the lead up to the convening of the Regional Baath Party convention, many of these proposals were talked about as if the convention would ratify them. None were.

Assad explained to the WSJ:

There are many things that we wanted to do in 2005, which we are planning to do in the year 2012, seven years later! It is not realistic to have a time frame because you are not living in a situation where you can control the events. I just started by saying that every week we have something new. So, you cannot predict what is going to happen next year. Of course, you always put a timetable but you rarely could implement that timetable.

In 2005, Syria had just pulled out of Lebanon under intense international pressure. The Bush administration was threatening Syria with isolation, hostile UN resolutions, the Hariri investigation, and increased financial and trade sanctions, not to mention the approaching Israeli war on Hizbullah and bombing of the Syrian nuclear plant as well as assassinations of a leading Syrian nuclear administrator, a leading Hizbullah figure, and Hamas operatives in Damascus. Cheney’s office had begun to direct MEPI money to the Syrian opposition; Representatives of the IRI and DNI came to Syria to scout for young activists who might help organize a more effective opposition to Assad that could be used to build domestic pressure. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt were recruited as the “moderate” Arabs to criticize Assad for his support for Hamas and Iran. They hammered home a sectarian theme in the hope of delegitimizing Syria’s “resistance” to George Bush’s effort in Iraq and Israel’s effort in Gaza and the West Bank. They demonized Syria as the treasonous state that had abandoned “real” Arabs, read Sunnis, in order to join the Shiite Crescent. Shiites in Iraq, Bahrain, Lebanon, not to mention the Syrian regime came under intense military and political pressure from the “moderate” Arab regimes. President Assad had plenty of excuses to batten down the hatches and put off reforms.

Assad rationalized his delay in reforming the administrative law and more in 2005 during his WSJ interview by arguing that Syrians want stability and growth more than freedom and political reform. He explained:

So, reform in politics is important but it is not as important and urgent as the people waking every day and they want to eat, to have good health, to send their children to good schools. That is what they want. I want to feel safe in my own country. That is my goal….Actually, we postponed it because of the conflict. We took the decision in 2005 in one of the conferences of our party. At that time the conflict started by France, Britain, the United States and others trying to destabilize Syria. We said: okay, let us forget about it; we have something new. Now, we are very serious in finishing this. The second one is about civil society; we need to improve the civil society. Now, we are finalizing the law of the civil society….

Hamidi sets out Assad’s reforms to day – Administrative law, banking laws, private education and new universities,  new media law,  etc. He then explains how municipal elections and new Party elections will set the stage for new parliamentary elections.