Demonstration in Damascus

Friday, February 18th, 2011

According to the blog Syria News Wire, a demonstration in Damascus, the Syrian capital, on Thursday, caught on video posted on YouTube, was not part of a wave of antigovernment unrest sweeping the Arab world.

The blog, which is written from Damascus and London, explains the video this way:

An unprecedented scene in Syria this morning as an estimated 1500 people took to the streets in a spontaneous protest.

They were angry that the son of a shop owner had been allegedly beaten by a traffic police officer. So they went on to the streets at Hariqa, just south of Souq Al-Hamidiyah in Damascus. From the video, it seems as if the protest spread down to the western end of Medhat Pasha.

They chant “the Syrian people will not be humiliated”, interspersed with, “shame, shame” and “with our soul, with our blood, we sacrifice for you Bashar”. That’s a very Syrian way of saying they were furious at the police, not the president. Also, note there was no chanting of “the people want the fall of the regime” (the words used in Tunisia and Egypt, and now in Yemen and Bahrain).

At the start of the video, almost every person in is holding up a mobile phone. With mobile phone video cameras plus Twitter and blogs to distribute the footage, public servants face a degree of accountability that they have never faced before.

In a surreal moment, the Minister of the Interior arrives and asks the crowd why they are demonstrating. He has now promised an investigation.

Another Syrian blogger, a student in Aleppo who writes on Twitter as Seleucid, called the video of the protest “proof that the Syrians can do it as much as anybody, they just don’t want to.”

This video and commentary from the Syrian blogosphere comes just three days after a teenage blogger, brought into court chained and blindfolded, was sentenced to five years in jail by a court in Syria. As Reuters reported, the blogger, “Tal al-Molouhi, a high school student who has been under arrest since 2009 and is now 19, had written articles saying she yearned for a role in shaping the future of Syria and supporting the Palestinian cause. Lawyers said the judge gave no evidence or details as to why she had been charged.”

Letter From Herzliya, Neocon Woodstock
Matthew Duss
February 14, 2011

…As a result of the revolution in Egypt, a key theme that emerged at the conference was hostility to Arab democracy and the assumption that it would bring only chaos and danger for Israel—a mantra that also exposed a division between Israeli neoconservatives and some of their American comrades. “In the Arab world, there is no room for democracy,” Israeli Major General Amos Gilead told a nodding audience. “This is the truth. We prefer stability.” Former Israeli Ambassador to the US Zalman Shoval scoffed that George W. Bush’s freedom agenda’s “principle accomplishment seems to be the victory of Hamas in Gaza.” Boaz Ganor, the executive director of the IDC’s International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, warned, “When these people [Arabs] vote, they are voting for what Coca-Cola calls the real thing and that is fundamentalism.” Shmuel Bar, Director of Studies at the IDC’s Institute of Policy and Strategy, declared that the US had “become an agent of revolutionary change in the Middle East, at the expense of stability.”

In opening remarks to a late-addition panel on “Stability vs. Democracy,” progressive analyst Brian Katulis—one of a handful of non-conservatives invited to participate in the conference—declared the panel’s title false choice. Calling America’s “continuing addiction to dictators” part of “a cold war hangover,” Katulis stressed the regional trends driving events in Egypt—massive unemployment, millions of disillusioned youth—and suggested that Israel and the United States would be wise to anticipate them. “There’s a delusion that we can prevent these trends,” said Katulis. “And we’ll probably hear some of these delusions on this panel.”

As if to immediately make Katulis’s point for him, Martin Kramer of Israel’s conservative Shalem Center began by mocking the Obama administration’s repeated assertions that the regional “status quo is unsustainable,” suggesting that it should be taken as the administration’s motto. “In Israel, we are for the status quo,” Kramer said. “Not only do we believe the status quo is sustainable, we think it’s the job of the US to sustain it.”

Responding to Kramer’s remark afterward, Israeli analyst Meir Javedanfar said, “The first stage after a divorce or death is denial. This is followed by anger, then bargaining, depression and acceptance.” Kramer “is still in the denial stage. His statement shows that he still has not realized that the relationship with Egypt is over.”

But however much in denial, Kramer’s and Bar’s comments get at something real among conservative Israeli foreign policy elite: a sense that America, under both Bush and Obama, has failed to apply its power correctly in the region. This inability to achieve certain goals has consequently led to a perception of American decline (never mind that the refusal of allies like Netanyahu to honor American requests contributes to that perception). Many also voiced concerns that Obama’s treatment of Mubarak would cause other US client states to question America’s commitments.

“Obama is perceived, in a moment of truth, to have abandoned an ally,” said Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog, now a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute. “It’s unfair, but that’s the perception.” Herzog also doesn’t characterize Israeli views on democracy as harshly as some others. “Many, if not most, Israelis would lean at this point towards stability” rather than democracy, Herzog said, “not because they don’t want to see democracy around them—they do—but because they are highly skeptical whether the upheaval in Egypt will lead to real democracy in the foreseeable future.” And many Israelis are deeply concerned over potential negative developments in the meantime….

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Comments (59)

Syrian Nationalist Party said:

Israelis got it right, in the Middle East you really better off having stability than Democracy. That is why Israel should refrain from attacking Palestinians and refrain from lauding threats to Lebanon and Iran. The Status Quo is working well and Israel should help Iran and Hezbollah get stronger, maybe expand to Egypt and other places, now ruined countries, to establish some sort of stability. In fact Syria can play major role in keeping stability in Egypt, just as they did in Lebanon and on the Golan. Israeli should consider having all these forces of stability present to keep things boring and normal.

Unfortunately, SNP forecasts are for major explosive and comprehensive revolutionary takeover by Moslem forces of the entire Middle East, not just the Arabs but also the Islamic World, from Morocco to the Philippine the revolts will flame, including Iraq and Afghanistan. Additionally, the British Monarchy is seen as the first target for the revolutionary expansion to oppressed western nations sometime in late 2012- 2015, and of course, no need to mention it, it is a given now, that the U.S. is heading south as well. Even if these Western Countries managed to hang on until 2015, they could not withstand the shock of the Islamic revolutionary takeover in progress now. The oil shock alone (it will all be shut completely) the crash of 600 Trillion in derivatives, and the banking collapse, along with liquidity, defaults and bankruptcies will bring many European Monarchs and Government down not so pleasantly by 2015.

You cannot help these Israelis; they have a complex “Delusional Invincibility” mixed with extreme Ethnocentricity, diseases that Elohim found no cure for it, well, except to send someone to wipe them out. The level of separatism and delusionalism one extrapolate from reading the Herzalia article is beyond shocking, it is astonishing that they could be mentally and intellectually so far off in left field when they are physically sitting right in the middle of it all.

February 18th, 2011, 1:38 am

Alex said:

London based Alhayat covered the Syrian foreign ministry’s story

http://international.daralhayat.com/internationalarticle/235522

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February 18th, 2011, 3:42 am

Akbar Palace said:

Apartheid State NewZ

Israelis got it right, in the Middle East you really better off having stability than Democracy.

SNP,

Subjugating millions of people with war, no freedom of expression, huge corruption (most Arab leaders are Billionaires), unemployment, and religious intolerance is not “stability”. You have been misled by well-off and well-placed American academics and their small band of Leftist misfits.

If Israeli Arabs want to demonstrate in Israel, it is perfectly legal to do so.

So the question is, why aren’t they?

Ishmael Khaldi, Israel’s first Bedouin diplomat states in the San Francisco Chronicle:

My perspective is unique, both as the vice consul for Israel in San Francisco, and as a Bedouin and the highest-ranking Muslim representing the Israel in the United States. I was born into a Bedouin tribe in Northern Israel, one of 11 children, and began life as shepherd living in our family tent. I went on to serve in the Israeli border police and later earned a master’s degree in political science from Tel Aviv University before joining the Israel Foreign Ministry.

I am a proud Israeli — along with many other non-Jewish Israelis such as Druze, Bahai, Bedouin, Christians and Muslims, who live in one of the most culturally diversified societies and the only true democracy in the Middle East. Like America, Israeli society is far from perfect, but let us deals honestly. By any yardstick you choose – educational opportunity, economic development, women and gay’s rights, freedom of speech and assembly, legislative representation — Israel’s minorities fare far better than any other country in the Middle East.

Unlike other countries in the area, Israel enjoys a free press. As Khaled Abu Toameh , an Arab reporter for the Jerusalem Post says, “we, the Arabs living there, we always admire the Israeli media because of its openness and its freedom. We used to say, ‘We hope one day we’ll have a free media like the Jews.'”

With his clichéd, anti-Israel rhetoric, Mr. Klein misrepresents Israel and does a disservice to his readers. While he suggests that Israel “stands at odds with the values” the US is trying to promote, it is really Mr. Klein’s misleading journalism that stands at odds with the values trusting readers expect.

http://www.camera.org/index.asp?x_context=2&x_outlet=37&x_article=1997

February 18th, 2011, 7:38 am

Ziad said:

What is the building with the b/w stripes visible in the first frame of the video?

February 18th, 2011, 11:19 am

MONTAGNARD said:

Letter To Herzliya
The Zionists worked on their goal of taking over Palestine in the 19th century, and accomplished part of that goal with some success in the 20th century.
The Arabs have responded to the Zionist threat in the 20th century, with limited success until the end of that century, when Israel was forced to withdraw from south Lebanon in 2000 without any concessions in return.
The withdrawal from Gaza was without any concessions.
What we see in the Arab World is the ushering of the 21st century, which will be the Arab century, as opposed to the 20th century that was the Zionist century.

February 18th, 2011, 12:22 pm

Without Mubarak, U.S. Struggles to Shield Israel from Diplomatic Pressure
Friday, February 18, 2011 at 11:23 am
By TIME’s Tony Karon

The Palestinians are bridling against Washington’s insistence that they withdraw a U.N. resolution condemning Israeli settlements? Better call Hosni Mubarak….

A few weeks ago, the U.S. had a reliable ally in Cairo when it came to strong-arming President Mahmoud Abbas to jump through diplomatic hoops against his better judgement. Time and again it had been Mubarak that provided the pressure and then, ostensibly, the political cover — as well as the mandate he was unable to get from his own people — for Abbas to participate in various rounds of photo-opportunity diplomacy with the Israelis in order to help the Obama Administration sustain the impression that it was making progress toward a two-state solution to the Middle East’s most enduring crisis. But Hosni Mubarak’s era ended decisively a week ago when he was turfed out of office by a citizenry no longer willing to tolerate a leader more attentive to the geopolitical demands of his foreign patrons than to the needs of his own people. And the new demand for sovereignty, accountability and dignity firing up the Arab world bodes ill for Washington’s ability to corral Arab backing for its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

So, the U.S. is left alone to pressure the Palestinians to withdraw the resolution on which the Security Council is set to vote on Friday, restating the Council’s 1980 ruling that Israeli settlements on land conquered in 1967 are illegal, and deeming them an obstacle to peace. If the vote goes ahead, the U.S. is expected to be the only no-vote on the 15 member body, but because of its status as one of five permanent members, its nay counts as a veto. And as a prime source of revenue to an entirely aid-dependent Palestinian Authority, Washington still has plenty of leverage to bring to bear — the fact that the Palestinian leadership called an urgent meeting Friday to discuss President Obama’s request that they withdraw the Security Council resolution suggests that some of that leverage is already being brought to bear. Using the veto on a resolution broadly in keeping with Washington’s own efforts to compel the Israelis to halt settlement construction is hardly where the Administration wants to be this week, reminding a risen Arab world, with whose democratic aspirations it is trying desperately to associate itself, of the fact that Arab interests always come second when they conflict with Israeli demands.

Wielding the veto on Israel’s behalf on the settlement issue would leave the U.S. just as isolated on the issue as Israel is, although the Administration is under strong bipartisan pressure on Capitol Hill to do exactly that if it comes to a vote.

Pressure rather than persuasion will be the key to the U.S. getting the resolution withdrawn. That’s because Washington’s argument that the U.N. is the wrong venue to bring up the settlement issue, and that doing so would somehow impede progress toward their bottom-line goal of Palestinian statehood based on the 1967 borders, is unlikely to convince the Palestinians and their backers. For two decades the Palestinians have largely bypassed the United Nations and instead looked to Washington to broker a credible peace; the fact that they’re returning to the international body is a vote of no-confidence in the U.S.-led peace process. When the Administration argues that getting the Security Council to rule on settlements jeopardizes prospects for a negotiated agreement, many Arab and European diplomats point out that there are no negotiations currently under way, and that the peace process remains hopelessly stalled. Obama’s U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice reportedly met with Arab diplomats in an effort to get them to withdraw the resolution, and offered, among other things, that the U.S. would increase pressure on the Israelis to stop settlement activity. But the fact that the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has successfully defied Obama’s pressure on settlements suggests that there’s no reason Rice’s reported offer would be taken seriously.

The U.S. also reportedly offered to back a non-binding statement by the Council president that would, among other things, condemn settlements as an obstacle to peace — an offer approved, according to the Israeli daily Haaretz by the Israeli leadership, which also made clear that it expected Obama to veto the resolution as it stands. But Arab countries reportedly rebuffed that offer as insufficient.

The democratic wave that has broken across the Middle East in recent weeks will inevitably challenge the basic assumptions of U.S. diplomacy in the region, nowhere more so than on the Israeli-Palestinian front. For the past decade the moderate Arab autocrats have glumly gone along with the U.S. process, which they see as hopelessly tilted in Israel’s favor, for lack of alternatives. They have privately and occasionally publicly made clear that they believe the process was going nowhere and prospects for a two-state solution were fading. And backing the U.S. in its perceived coddling of Israel did not do Arab leaders any favors with their own citizens. Now, as those citizens are demanding greater accountability, there’s simply no incentive for them to continue playing the Emperor’s Clothes game to a peace process none believes is going to produce a result. And being seen to stand up to the U.S. is a cost-free symbolic crowd-pleaser to their domestic constituencies. Cost-free, that is, except to the Palestinian Authority if the U.S. threatens to cut aid. Either way, the Israeli-Palestinian issue is one that will cloud the Obama Administration’s efforts to get on “the right side of history” with the Arab appetite for freedom that it has been celebrating.

February 18th, 2011, 12:44 pm

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February 18th, 2011, 12:58 pm

Norman said:

Are there pictures of the police beating the son of the shop owner and why does any body has the right to resist arrest , letting him go after the incident will not implement the law for all and will make it clear that some people will be let go and others will be punished , he broke the law and should be punished if that is confirmed and the police officer should be punished if he used a humiliating language ,
Does anybody think in the US the Police is as polite as we like the Syrian police to be , we all are dreaming , police brutality is not limited to Syria, and other Arab countries,

February 18th, 2011, 4:21 pm

Norman

Here is an example from yesterday starting at 55:00

http://www.democracynow.org/shows/2011/2/18

February 18th, 2011, 4:46 pm

http://www.shorouknews.com/ContentData.aspx?id=392138

Summary: Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood will let the Egyptian people decide future of peace treaty with Israel, but will expect reversing Mubarak’s highly unpopular cooperation with Israel in Gaza

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February 18th, 2011, 5:43 pm

majedkhaldoon said:

Norman
TRAFIC POLICE in Syria are thieves,it is not against the law for people to refuse paying bribes,recently they ,the police,look inside your billfold and take everything you have there,the people were shouting Haramieh,Thieves,they the police,have no right to beat the guy,they can give him a ticket,but they want the money to themself,basically stealing it from the goverment,they must be stopped.this is corruption,some take monthly salary from people.

February 18th, 2011, 7:01 pm

It is funny when the US blame others as non democratic and the same thing takes place in the US , we need Syria to speak out for the rights of Americans to descend.

February 18th, 2011, 7:40 pm

Majid,

No police officer should expect bribes or ask for them , but the Syrian society should do it’s part in providing a descent life for the officer and his family before asking to do what he can to survive, the problem that i see is that the merchants and the other well to do Syrians do everything they can to avoid paying taxes ( isn’t that robbery and theft from the Country, not the government) and they expect the police to be there and protect them from competing street vendors and theives,

So if Syria intend to stop bribery seriously then she should provide for a living wage and good health care and a pension plan , make the public service job a job that is the envy of the rest of the people , then implement a significant punishment for offenders,with undercover publicized trails, initiated by the local prosecutors in the counties, the public servants are just trying to live and seeing how well the merchant class is doing ,

February 18th, 2011, 7:58 pm

May be the next Arab Summit ,is better be held in Jedda,in KSA,all dictators will be able to attend it there.BinAli,Mubarak,and soon Kadafi.

February 18th, 2011, 8:10 pm

?????? ??????? has a sweet ring in my ears. Hopefully soon we can append ??????? to the names of few more presidents, amirs and kings.

February 18th, 2011, 8:54 pm

NK said:

http://www.alquds.co.uk/index.asp?fname=latest%2Fdata%2F2011-02-18-16-32-33.htm

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???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ?? ???? ???? ???? ??? ?? ?????? ?????? ??????????? ??? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?????? ?? ???????? ????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ????????…

??? ?????? ?????? ???? ????????? ???? ??? ?? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? (?????? ????? ????? ?? ????) ?? ???? ?????? ?????????? ???????? ????? ??????? ??????? ???? ????: (???? ???? ?? ????)… ?? ??????: (?? ?????? ???????) ?? ???? ???? ????????? ????? ?????? ????? ??????? ???? ????? ??? ??????? ?????? ?? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ??? ??? ???????.. ??? ?? ??? ?????? ?????? ????!

????? ???? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ????? ???????? ????????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ??? ?????? ????? (???) ????? ?????? ????? ????? ????? ??????? ??? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ???? ?????????? ??????? ?????… ?????? ????? ????????? ???? ?????? ????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????… ???? ???? ???? ?? ???????? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ???????? ??? ???? ???? ????? ?????? (???? ???? ????… ??? ???) ??? ???? ????? ?? ????? ????? ???????? ???? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ????? ??? ???? ?????.

??? ???? ????? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ???? ???? ???????? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ??? ?? ??????? ??????? ?????… ??? ?? ?????????? ?? ??????? ??? ??? ??? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ???… ????? ??? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ???? ??? ???? ???????? ?????? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ???????? ??????? ????? ??????? ??? ??? ????… ??? ????? ?? ??? ??? ????!

???? ??? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ?????? ?? ???????? ???? ????? ???????? ????? ????… ???? ???? ?????? ???????? ???????? ??? ??? ?? ???? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ?? ???? ?? ????? ?? ???? ???? ??? ??????… ???? ??? ??????: (????? ?? ??? ????… ?? ???????? ????? ???????? ??????? ????… ??? ??? ??? ????? ??? ????? ??? ???? ??????) ????? ???: (???????? ????? ???????… ??? ??? ????) ???? ????: (??? ??? ???? ???? ???… ???? ?????? ???? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ???? ?????… ???? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?? ???? ???? ?????? ?? ??????).

??? ???? ????… ????? ?????? ?? ????????? ?? ???????? ???? ???? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ???????? ?? (??? ???? ??? ??????) ??? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ????? (???? ?????) ??? ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ?????? ??????? ????? ??????? ??????? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ?? (?????) ??? ???? ????? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ??? ?????? ???????? ????? (12) ??? (20) ???????… ?? ???? ?? ??? ??????? ??? ????? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???… ???? ????????? ???? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ???? ????? ?? ?????… ???? ?? ???? ??????? ?????? ??? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ?? ??????? ???? ???? ?????? ??????? ??????? ???????? ???? ?????? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ??????? ?? ??? ??????? ???????? ??? ???????? ????? ?? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ???????? ???? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ??????… ???????? ?? ?? ???? ???????? ??? ?? ??? ?? ???? ??????? ???????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ???????? ?? ?????? ????? ??? ?????? ?? ?? ???? ????? ??????? ??? ??????? ????????? ???? ?????? ?????????? ??????? ???? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ??????!

February 19th, 2011, 1:19 am

http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/235704

????? ???? ?????? ????? ??????? ????????
?????, 19 ?????? 2011
????? ????? ?? ?????.jpg
???? – ??????? ?????
Related Nodes:
????? ????? ?? ?????.jpg

??? ????? ???? ????? ???????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ?????????. ????? ???? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??? ????? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? (??????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ??????) ??? ???? ?????.

??????? ????? ????? ?? «????? ????? ??????» ???? ???? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ????? ????? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ????? ??? 2.5 ????? ??? ???? ??? ????? (????? ???? ?????? ??????? ?? ???) ???? ????? ??? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ???????? ??????? ???? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ????? ??? ????? ????????. ???? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ???? ??? «??????» ???? ??? ???? ??????? ?????: «???? ?? ????? ???????? ??????? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ?? ????????».

????? ????? ??? «????? ????? ??????» ?? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????????. ???? ?????? ?? ????? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ??????? ???? ??? ??? ??? 220 ?????????? ??? ?????? ?? ??????? ??? ???? «????? ????? ??????» ????? ?????? ???? ???? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ???????? ??? ????? ??????. ????? ????: «????? ??? ???? ???? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ???? ??? ?????? ????? ??? ???????? ??????? ?????? ?? ???? ???? ?? ????? ??? ????? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ???? ?????????».

????? ??? ????? ??? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ???? ????? ???? ???? ????? ?? ????? ?????? ???????? ??? ??? ????? ??????. ????? ????? ????? ??? ????? ???? 62 ????????? ?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ?? ?????? ???????? ?? ??????? ?? ?????? ???????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??????? ???? ????? ???????.

???? ???? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ???? ?????????? ??????? ?? «?????? ???????????» ?? ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ???? 90 ????????? ?? ???? ???? ????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?? ?????? ???? ????? ??????. ????? ??? ???????? ????? ????? ?? ???????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ??????? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ????? ???????? 1.3 ????? ??? ???? ?????? ?? ????????. ????? ???? ????? ??????: «????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ??? 1.5 ????? ??? ???? ?? ????? ??? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ???????? ??? ?? ????? ??????? ??? ???. ??? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ???????? ???? ??????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ???????? ?? ??????????».

??? ??????? ??? «????? ???» ??????? ??? ???? ????? ??????. ????? ???????? ?? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ???? 100 ??? ????? ?? ????? ??????? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ????? ????? ????? ????? – ?????? ???? ????? ?????? ????????? ??? ??? ??????. ????? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ??????? ?? ??????.

???? ????? ??????? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?? ????? ??? ??? ???? ?????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? 2017. ?????? ????? ????? ??????? ??: ?? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ???????. ????? ????: «?? ??????? ??? ?? ???? ???? ??????? ?? ??? ??????? ???????? ???? ????? ???? ?????? ?????». ???? ??????? ??? ????? ???? ???? ????? ??????? ????? ??? ??? 52.7 ????? ????? ?????? ????? ??????? ????? 20 ?? ?????: ?????? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ?? ??? ??????? ??????? ????? 1.5 ????? ????? ??????. ??????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ????? ??? 1.25 ????? ????? ??????.

????? ??? ?? ?? ??? 1400 ??????? ????? ?? ????? ?????. ????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ???? 2.5 ????? ????? ??????? ???? ????? «??? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??? ?????». ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ???????? ????? ???? ????????? ?????? ??????? ??? ???? ?????? ?????. ??? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ????? ????? ????? ????????.

??? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ????????? ?? ??? ???? ??? 40 ????? ??? ???? ?????? «??? ????? ?????? ?? ???? ?? ???? ???? ?????? ??????????». ???? ??? ????????? ???? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ??? «????» ??? ?????? ????????? ????? ???? ????? ??? 1.5 ????? ??? ???? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ??? ??? 15 ????? ??? ??????. ????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ?????? ?? ?? ?????.

??? ????? ????????? ??? ????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ?????? ???????? ????? ??? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?? ???? ????? ????????? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ????? ???????. ???? ??? ???? 56 ????? ???? ??? 110 ?????? ??? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ?? ????? ??? ???? ??? ?? ????? ??? ???? ?? ???????? ??? ???????. ???? ????? ???? ???? ????? – ?????? – ??????? ???? ?????????? ????? ????? ??????? ???????? ????. ????? ???? ??????? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ??????. ????? ???? ??? ???? ???????.

???? ?? ????? ????? ?? ????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ??? 140 ????? ????? (386 ??? ????? ??????)? ?? ????? 84 ??????? ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ????????? ?????? ??? 56 ????? ?????.

????? ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ????????? ????????? ??????? ????? ????? ?? ???????? ???????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ??? ??????? 36 ????? ????? ?? ????????. ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ?? «?????» ??? ?????? ????? ??? ??? 140 ????? ??????? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ?? ??????? ??????. ??? ?? ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ????? ??? ??? 15 ??? ????? ??????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ?? ????? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ???????.

??????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????????? ??????????? ??? 31 ???????? ?????? ??????? ????????? ???? ??? ?????????? 24 ??????? ????? ???? 21 ??????? ?????? ?????? ?1.5 ????? ?????? ????? ????? ?1.5 ????? ?????? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ??????? ?????? ?????????? ??? ????? ?? ????? ???????? ?????? ?????.

February 19th, 2011, 3:21 am

Off the Wall said:

What do they want,
There are times when ones own words, no matter how well composed fail to describe the aspirations of millions. It is during such times when I turn poetry, the voices of humanity,

Melancholy, sadness, desperation, and a frustrated anger characterize this piece by Nizar Qabbani, but I think it captures why 2011 is shaping up the way it is, much more than the notion of bread and butter. He wrote it in 1996, and one now must add fifteen more years to the fifty years of Nizar’s nightmare. It seems that millions upon millions have reached the point where their experience living one or more of the poem’s section is no longer tolerable, they stoped searching, and started to create a world where Nizar’s search is not needed. Whether they succeed or not is a different story that does not require poetry but a lot of hard work on the ground and a constant struggle to define the world, and I mean it, the world.

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February 19th, 2011, 3:37 am

Shami said:

Ziad you asked :What is the building with the b/w stripes visible in the first frame of the video?

It is Darwish Pasha mosque,from the early ottoman-era.

February 19th, 2011, 7:12 am

Thank you Shami

February 19th, 2011, 10:00 am

NK #16

Very good report. The protest was spontaneous. The crowd was very angry and leaderless. The couple of “alphas” had difficulty starting or sustaining a slogan. The government dealt with it correctly by having the interior minister showing up. No US made tear gas canisters were flying around, no rubber bullets or live ammunition.

If they are smart they will bring the issue to an acceptable conclusion, like an apology by the police officers on TV, and allowing the victim to sue the officers.

Security and secret police abusing their power is a phenomenon that is neither unique to Syria, nor invented by the current government. It is also the main complaint in all the revolutions we are seeing today.

If the a police officer has to deal with a citizen, he should keep his hands off, salute, address by Sayyed + name, refrain from denigrating labels, and stick to the problem at hand. This will go a very long way. All it takes is a decree from the president. Well also some sensitivity training.

February 19th, 2011, 11:32 am

jad said:

Dear OTW,
I’m not sure if you know this song for Julia Boutros:
??? ????? ???? ?? ???? ??? ?????.
?? ????? ???? ???? ???? ?? ???? ???.
?? ????? ???? ?????? ??? ?????? ? ??????.
Check it out!

February 19th, 2011, 11:55 am

This is the story in the local media:

http://www.syria-news.com/readnews.php?sy_seq=128883

????? ??? ???? ???? ????? ???? ?????.. ????????? ???? ??? ?? ?????? ??? ???????
???? ???? ?? ????????? ???????? ??? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ????? ??????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ???? ?????, ??? ???? ???? ????.

????? ???? ????? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ????? ??????? ????????? ??? ????????, ???????? ??? ????? ???????, ???? ????????? ????????? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ??? ?? ??????? ???? ???????? ???? ???? ????? ?????????.
????? ???? ???? ??????? ????????? ???? ????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???? ???? ?????? ????????? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ???? ????? ??? ???? ???? ????? ????? ????? ??????? ????? “???? ???” ??? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ????? ?? ???? ??? ??? ?????? ??????? ?????..
????? ???? ??? ??? ???? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ?????? ??????? ????? ???????? ??? ???? ??? ???????? ?????? ????? ????? ??????????? ???? ?????? ?? ????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ???? ????? ??????? ????? ?????? ????????? ????????.

???? ????????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ????????? ????? ???? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ???? ????? ????????? ?????? ????????? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???????? ?????? ???? ???? ???? ????? ????? ???? ???? ????????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????????? ??? ????? ?? ??? ??? ????.

???? ???? ??? ???? ?????? “??? ????? ???? ?????? ??? ??? ????????? ??? ???? ??? ????? ?? ???????? ??? ????? ?????? ???? ???? ???? ??????? ???? ???? ???? ??? ???? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ????? ????? ???????? ???? ?? (???? ?? ????)? ?? ??? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ????? ?? ???? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? ??? ?????”.

?? ????, ??? ???? ???? ??? ?????????? ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ????? ???? “???? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ???????? ?? ????? ??????? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ??????? ??????? ?? ?????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ??? ????? ???? ????? ?? ???? ???? ?? ???????? ????????? ???? ??? ????? ???? ?? ???????? ??? ???? ????? ??????”.

?? ???????, ??? ???? ???? ?? ????? ???????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???? ??? ????? ??? “??? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ??????? ???? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ??? ?? ????? ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ????? ??? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ????????? ????????? ?? ??? ??? ???? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ???????? ???????? ?? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ????? ???????? ?????? ??? ??????? ?????? ???????? ??????? ????? ???? ????? ??????? ?????? ???????”.

???? ?????? ?????????? ??? “??? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ??????? ???”.

????? ????????? ??? ???? ????? ???? ????? ?? ???? ??????? ???? ???? ???? ??? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ???????? ?????? ???? ???? ???????? ??? ?????? ????????? ??????.

????? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ????????? ?????? ??????? “?????? ??????? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ???? ?? ????? ?? ???? ???? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ???????”, ?????? ?? “???? ?????? ????? ??????? ???? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ????? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ????? ??”.

??? ???? ????? ???????? ???? ????? ??? ????????, ??? ??? ???? ?????? “?? ???? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ???????? ????????( ????? ?????? ?? ?????)? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ????????”.

??? ????? ?????? ??????, ??? “??? ???? ???? ????????? ????? ????? ???? ????? ????? ???? ???? ????????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??? ??? ?????? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ??? ?? ?????? ?? ??? ?? ??? ????????? ??????????”.

February 19th, 2011, 12:34 pm

??? ????? ???? ????? ???????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ?????????.

Would be nice if transparency exists in Syria, to take a look at the list of Foreign and American Investors developing these projects. Money Laundering comes to mind anyone. One need to see the Syrian participation as well, if public funds used or not. These projects are billed as “Regional Integration” when in fact, more like Exxon and Shell Oil Companies “Geo-Resource and Product Integration”. The capital expenditure is astronomical on Syria’s scale and the local economic benefits, in term of Job creation, is at absolute minimum. The damage to the Environment is yet another factor not accounted for. Basically, the new Colonial Strategy is to use Third World Countries as dumping grounds for all kind of hazardous waste as well as to setup installations that are very hazardous to the echo-system. So let’s see a list of who’s who the cash fronted by and the front companies it is coming from.

February 19th, 2011, 1:06 pm

Dear Jad,
Thanks for the reminder, heard the song few times before, but more recently i have been thinking of Julia’s song ??? as the question is being, somehow, answered.

February 19th, 2011, 1:30 pm

Clay said:

This is priceless. A 71 yr old Army veteran who had been at CIA for 27 yrs takes Hilary up on her “Arab World Democracy” free speech mumbo jumbo. Doesnt disrupt. Doesnt scream. Just stands quietly with his back turned to her- and gets beaten up and arrested right under her nose as she drones out her social justice schtick.

She is going to preach to Arabs about democracy? Whats next an NGO -sponsored Arab Patriot Act? That way Arabs can be just like us! Instead of living in a lawless police state, they can have a legislated police state..

February 19th, 2011, 5:43 pm

Trustquest said:

Dear Joshua,
Long time didn’t read to you or to the other wonderful permanent members of this blog, I have a question to you and the panel and I have to use clear names even I know that here we should not use the actual names of the subject matter and we should go around that, but since the Libyan dictator is falling at this moment I thought to put this question:
Do you think that if uprising started in Syria, will the Syrian dictator use the heavy weaponry and use the army to curtail the protest?

February 20th, 2011, 4:51 pm

Trustquest,
He will not use deadly force, he is not a militery man and doctors do not intentinaly kill people.

February 20th, 2011, 7:26 pm

Joshua said:

Dear Trustquest,

This is a good question, which is impossible to answer without Syria’s opposition members actually taking to the streets.

But if one takes the small demonstration of some 1,500 the other day, the Syrian government seemed to deal with it non-violently. The Minister of interior entered into the demonstration to talk, and I am told that the police who beat up the Syrian youth has been fired.

Clearly, something is changing among the people of the region. We will have to see if the Syrian people take to the streets to demand an end to this government as they have in Libya. There is no doubt that the Qadhafis have horrified the World with their threatening speeches and inability to recognize that anything is wrong. The son’s speech was astounding.

February 21st, 2011, 11:00 am

This is a good question, which is impossible to answer without Syria\’s opposition members actually taking to the streets.

February 21st, 2011, 11:05 am

Norman,among other titles,they gave him the rank of colonel.But we are no more in 1982,i dont see the syrian regime using force in front of a large scale uprising ,in this internet-era.
The propagandists of the regime use the same excuses than that used by the son of Ghadafi ,in the syrian regime context it is :the country is in danger of being divided ,lebanonized ,iraqized and that muslims are going to slaughter the minorities…that bashar is the sole arab moqawem against USA and Israel who are thinking day and night how to topple him.

In other words,

After me, the deluge

February 21st, 2011, 12:21 pm

now ,the use of force by totalitarian regimes like that of Lybia can be explained by the fact that they have no places in the world where to take refuge,and that acts of retaliation are waiting them,for this reason they have nothing to lose by using force till death.This is what is happening in Libya right now.

February 21st, 2011, 12:49 pm

trustquest said:

Syrian government picked two kids from the protest of the 1500 last week, and no one know where is there about.
but there is another question,
I don’t know if the question been asked or not on this blog. But tonight I heard to a professor specializing in Libyan history, he said that with all thing considered he was not expecting to see Libya as the third country go into the uprising.
Q:
Who think Syria would be saved from the current hurricane blowing the region, and if Syria can weather the storm who else will stay in place?

February 21st, 2011, 7:34 pm

Majhool said:

TRUSTQUEST,

Save your breath. Joshua is more interested in questions such as:

Will Syria be the new Singapore?

Than

is Makhlouf becoming a liability?

February 21st, 2011, 8:13 pm

Nafdik said:

Trustquest,

I am afraid the answer to your question is that the regime will try to compromise through some concessions.

But if the people pose the question in stark term: full democracy or revolution, then the regime will answer with extreme force as kaddafi is doing now.

Note that the instruments of violence and power are fully under the control of those who are fully behind the regime.

I would even suspect that if assad hinted that he will leave then a coup d’etat will happen and he will be replaced with a more hardcore member of the ruling clique.

There are too many interests and a full micro society that has developed around the regime and this can not be removed easily.

For these reasons i suspect that the syrians will be the last to join the party and that the regime will offer some compromises and will build over the next few years the apparatus necessary to avoid an egypt style revolution.

February 21st, 2011, 9:34 pm

The economist made a study and put an index for the, who is next:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/02/arab_league_map

according to the study, Syria suppose to be next, and don’t forget that these revolutions start usually with a spark or even without one, it is like there is no run from it.
Nafdik, usually the people demands are very simple and elevate gradually, but usually the answers from dictators are rejections and entrenching in their past and not be able to release power, leave chairs or to give dignity and freedom to people, because they would loose control. And that because these dictators are brutal animals they know how to kill their people and they can not live without enslaving the population and can not imagine place without emergency law and with civil life. In Syria for example, I was there last summer, it reminded me with 1963, barracks and army units all around the capital, it is like a war zone. But all this armaments can do anything in face of public uprising especially if it happened unanimously in all counties across the country.
I think the events usually shaped by the small anecdote of actions of individuals who either up the ante of down the ante.

February 21st, 2011, 10:58 pm

Trustquest, do not underestimate the intelligence of the arab dictators or the effectivness of guns, tanks, helicopters and planes to fight unarmed population.

Egypt and tunisia fell because the army refused to carry the orders of the dictators. This will not be the case in syria.

Both hafez and saddam have beaten popular uprisings by simply killing enough people. Do not forget as well that the dictators are now watching and learning and they will modulate their response according to lessons learned.

Of course the people are watching and learning as well. So it all depends who is the faster leaner 🙂

February 21st, 2011, 11:25 pm

AIG said:

Nafdik,

I agree with everything you say but would like to point out that even if the regimes stay one step ahead of their populations they will still lose. The regimes that do not have oil are caught in a dilemma they can’t solve. In order to make their societies richer they need to open them up and they need good relations with the West. But these two things make the regimes more vulnerable. In order to fight corruption they need transparency, but again this makes the regime more vulnerable. There is no way out of this conundrum. For a while they thought they could implement the Chinese model, but it is clear that it cannot be applied in Arab countries because of their religious, tribal and sectarian natures.

So the only two realistic outcomes are regime change or the countries being ground to dust like Zimbabwe. Mugabe reduced Zimbabwe to ashes but he is still in power. It is certainly possible that this could happen in Syria. One should never underestimate the Assad ability to stay in power. But in the end, what will he be controlling?

February 22nd, 2011, 12:15 am

nafdik said:

AIG, what do you mean by:

“For a while they thought they could implement the Chinese model, but it is clear that it cannot be applied in Arab countries because of their religious, tribal and sectarian natures”?

February 22nd, 2011, 10:57 am

If you recall, several years ago, quite a few Arab analysts and people on this blog believed that economic success does not require democratic reforms and would point to China as an example which Syria and other Arab countries could follow.

There are many reasons why the Chinese model would not work in Arab countries but optimism knows no bounds:
1) The back bone of the Chinese “miracle” is the one child policy which is impossible to implement in Muslim countries
2) The Chinese miracle is based on exports to the West and massive Western foreign investment. Syria cannot be a “resistance” state and follow this crucial aspect of the Chinese model.
3) China is a risky market but the risk is mitigated by the lure of the size of the market. Syria is a very small market relative to China.
4) China is an attractive manufacturing base because of the commitment of the Chinese to infrastructure relative to other countries like India and Vietnam. The infrastructure in Syria is dismal relative to Turkey for example.
5) The Chinese bureaucracy is based on meritocracy which is not the case in the Arab world. The reason the Chinese meritocracy survives is national cohesion and the lack of tribes and clans.
6) Etc.

February 22nd, 2011, 11:38 am

Thanks AIG,

However, the only point about tribalism, religion, etc is point 5.

Egypt does have national cohesion yet it did not grow into a meritocracy.

I am very wary of comments that revolve around these factors because these are the factors raised by dictators to tell us why we are not ‘ready’ for democracy.

February 22nd, 2011, 1:24 pm

Point 1 is directly connected to religion.
As for the excuses given by the dictators, it does not look like anyone is buying them anymore but they may resurface if things do not improve in Egypt and Tunisia.

February 22nd, 2011, 1:46 pm

AIG, this is a very far fetched link. + it is debatable that the policy is key in the Chinese economic boom.

February 22nd, 2011, 3:15 pm

Think about it this way. If there are two kids per family instead of one, the country has to build twice as many classrooms, many more schools etc. When these children graduate the country has to create twice the number of jobs for them. In the agricultural sector, the amount of land per family does not go down with a one child policy; with two children, the next generation has half as much land.

The one child policy buys the government a lot more time to improve the life of its citizens.

February 22nd, 2011, 3:31 pm

Yossi said:

>>> with two children, the next generation has half as much land.

Time to go back to school AIG 🙂 2 kids per woman is (just a little less than) replacement rate…

BTW, I think that in rural areas the Chines allowed a second child.

The connection to religion is that the level of totalitarianism required for population growth control is only possible in an atheistic society, which allows viewing man as god, or society as an ant-nest, if you will.

There are many down-sides to this policy, especially the six-pocket syndrome where after two-generations you have four grandparents and two parents all grooming a single grandchild because he is their only hope for support at later age. The elderly on the one hand were not able to accumulate any private wealth, but on the other hand most social services are now privatized, so their only hopes is that the child makes enough money to support them all…

The one-child policy maybe made sense (within the confines of its totalitarian logic) as a means to realistically achieve a 2-child goal (aim higher than you really need and all that…)

February 22nd, 2011, 6:47 pm

Syria Comment “Mock” Democracy in Action

Let’s take a vote:

1.) Bashar Assad should go

2.) Bashar Assad should stay

Alex, Professor Josh,

Why don’t you start us off? A short reasoning to go along with your vote would be appreciated…

My vote:

Bashar Assad should stay. He’s the only one who can bring stability to Syria.

February 22nd, 2011, 7:00 pm

AIG, check this data. Fertility has went down a lot in many arab countries.

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:TUN:EGY:ISR:CHN:ARE:USA&tstart=-315619200000&tunit=Y&tlen=48&hl=en&dl=en

February 22nd, 2011, 7:08 pm

February 22nd, 2011, 7:09 pm

I don’t buy what you said and I’m going to give you two links which indirectly prove that:
Here is a link from BBC about how non violence struggle can expose dictators and throw them away which proved so far to be true:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12522848

the second one is Kaddaffi today speech:
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=149710511756905&oid=112166148822613&comments

As you may noticed in his speech, he introduced a shame to dictatorship kingdom on epic proportion. I know he is crazy, he is stupid he is he is but his final is unbelievable…. and will put this system to an end from earth if I’m write!

February 22nd, 2011, 7:37 pm

TQ, I hope that history will prove me wrong.

But how do you see a revolution unfold in Syria?

Let us assume that there is mass demonstrations. Bashar proposes some concessions.

3 things are possible:

a) People accept (Bahrain scenario)
b) People refuse and Bashar leaves (Egypt)
c) Both sides stick to their guns (Libya)

My prediction is that (a) is the likely outcome. And we are back to dictatorship with a few wage increases and higher sugar rations.

(b) is near 0 probability

What do you think? Am I missing something?

February 22nd, 2011, 7:57 pm

10 years ago I would have clearly agreed with you, now I am not so sure. Will Iraq and Turkey keep their relations with Syria if Assad acts like Qadaffi? Can Syria really afford to be completely sanctioned by both the US and Europe? Can the Syrian elite survive if they cannot go to any country except Lebanon?
Yes, there will not be direct international pressure. But there will be plenty of indirect pressure originating from the Syrian need and search for economic growth.

I am sure sure Assad will think about what happens the day after he uses option C. Option A is not a real option, it is just a delay tactic and the amount of money available to the regime to “buy” the public is very constrained. Maybe, just maybe there is also option D, a credible plan for reform in which the regime relinquishes power in an orderly manner.

February 22nd, 2011, 8:57 pm

Syria is very tough case and it is the worst case. I stopped at a shop owned by a Yemeni person and to my surprise he told me how much heatedly he feels for Syrians and told me how much harm done to the population during the last 50 years. He expected Syria to be the last one on this domino. He mentioned the Hama massacre which we Syrians hardly to mention or try to remember, which is in a time like this after seeing Kaddafi massacre will surface for sure because it is harm never dealt with it and kept unresolved simmering under low fire. Although I think the new generation who will lead the revolution of change will not look back and will talk about the future, the future which current system has no solutions for it or fallen behind the curve of catching up to keep this generation with some hope.

The ugly new tycoons in Syria lead by the regime who missed up the scale of the economic system ( who hurt themselves by themselves) are trying to create the class by design which something never happened in the history of mankind. And the Syria State remained like a zombie living on its population.

You also said that the army is 100% behind him, I doubt that and I’m sure you mean the sections of the army under control and those big echelons close to him. But the masses in the army are under fed under paid under loyal to anything related to the regime, it is only the outer shape look good but the inside is rotten.

Anyway, many of your assumptions I look at it differently. I see completely different scenario, a brand new one suit the country, Syria is a different case.

What ever scenario you are thinking of if it does not include total haul of the current system it is like piling more pressure for the future. I understand that the regime is stuck in history and does not have any leverage for change; it is like a dinosaur, extinct.

On this forum, I argued long time ago that Bashar is neither a reformer nor a progressive person, he is just an eye specialist who did not finish his license. He is there just to protect the thieves to keep their monies, and this does not go with history well as we have seen recently especially in those poor countries who need each bit of the money to make future for their children.

These countries need real opening with real jobs to advance and to go into the new century, need new language to deal with this generation.
My fried, you are missing big time, time has changed and you and me need to catch up with the events..

February 22nd, 2011, 10:10 pm

AIG, the idea of gradual reform is a fantasy. Do we have historical precedents of dictators who give up power in an orderly way?

In this case we are not talking about a handful of individuals but a full pyramid of profiteers.

February 22nd, 2011, 10:54 pm

In Chile, Pinochet gave up power in an orderly way to a democracy.
It can be done. You would need to promise immunity to the people in the regime but that is a cheap price to pay for kicking them out.

I am not saying that this has a high probability of succeeding in Syria. I am just hoping that it might. It will save many lives.

February 22nd, 2011, 11:50 pm

Trustquest and Nafdiq ,both of your views are valid but i’m more inclined to think that if a generalized and simultaneous uprising happens in the syrian cities asad will not dare to use brute force on a large scale ,it’s impossible for him to supress millions,inspite of his bad character ,he is surrounded.

February 22nd, 2011, 11:59 pm

Nafdik
Thanks for the links.

AIG
While the tone of your comments has changed significantly, there is still a hint of readiness to accept some pre-packaged bits of half truths. Both recent data and projections show that Muslims are like anyone else subject to reduction in fertility rates in manners that are much more correlated to factors other than religion Pew research center did an excellent study on fertility rates of Muslims throughout the world . Since I can not post figures, you may have to go over the study and look at the graphs.

In most muslim countries (with majority muslims) as well as in the rest of the world except for North America (temporarily), Muslim fertility rates are declining. And will reach reasonable rates by 2030 except for subsaharan Africa, where population explosion is very likely and would probably be in line for the next upheaval after the Arab World for reasons related to corruption and mismanagement more than to freedom.

February 23rd, 2011, 2:50 am

TEST
For direct access to graph

http://pewresearch.org/assets/publications/1872-d.png

February 23rd, 2011, 3:37 am

To ju? niemal pewne: w Syrii rozpocz??a si? rewolucja said:

[…] protestu nic nie zapowiada?o, ?e t?um obróci si? przeciw w?adzy. Ludzie w Damaszku wyszli na ulice po tym jak policjant pobi? ch?opaka (zauwa?cie jak cz?sto w ró?nych krajach magrebu w?a?nie […]

March 20th, 2011, 11:22 am

Syrië: revolutionaire situatie in wording « Rooieravotr said:

[…] er wel dingetjes: een zoon van een winkelier in Damascus kreeg klappen van een politieagent, mensen begonnen te demonstreren, de groep groeide tot 1500 mensen. Er werd niet om de val van het bewind geroepen, de naam van de president werd zelfs geroepen […]

April 23rd, 2011, 8:08 pm