Syria agrees to an Arab League peace plan set to be disclosed today, Foreign Policy writes:

In reports released by Syrian state television, President Bashar al-Assad’s government has accepted a roadmap presented by the Arab League on Sunday to end violence. However, the Arab League has yet to receive an official response to the proposal, saying Syrian officials have claimed they are waiting for a document on the situation in Syria. The Arab League has a meeting scheduled for today, and expects to receive a reply from Syria, which it said it would announce at the headquarters in Cairo. A Lebanese official with ties to Assad’s regime said Syria presented its own proposal to the Arab League calling for “the opposition to drop weapons, the Arab states to end their funding for the weapons and the opposition, and an end to the media campaign against Syria.” Syrian opposition groups remain skeptical, however, insisting to see the agreement that they are concerned “helps the Syrian regime to remain in power while the demands of the people are clear in terms of toppling the regime.”

Accepting Arab League mediation is a smart move by Assad, if true. It will buy time and placed the ball for dialogue in the opposition court. If the opposition refuse to engage in political dialogue – as they have stated they will do – Assad will be able to shift blame for the lack of compromise toward the opposition. The international community must play along because both NATO and the US have stated that they will not intervene in Syria militarily. Even if Assad is using the Arab League mediation effort to win time for his effort to suppress the opposition, the Arab League will take a more forward role. If dialogue fails, as everyone seems to expect, the Arab League will have to take concrete steps to isolate and condemn Syria. The Syria opposition and Western leaders will hope that at the end of the day this will place greater pressure on China, and perhaps even Russia, to condemn Syria in the UN. The West and possibly Turkey will be positioned then to tighten sanctions further and contemplate the military involvement that all disavow today.

It has been a bloody week in Syria.

This Tuesday – A prominent Sunni businessman, Muhammad Awais (???? ?????? ??????? ??? ???????? ??? ??? ??????? ???? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ????? )was assassinated outside of his factory on the outskirts of Aleppo (processed food). His brother and three others were also shot with him.

This micro-bus full of Alawi civilians were killed today in Homs. A friend in Homs said that 11 were killed with axes. There were protests in Al-Zahara afterwards, an Alawi neighborhood in Homs.

Opposition activists said at least 21 people were killed by government troops over the weekend, including at least 11 who died when Syrian forces pounded the western city of Homs with tanks, sustaining fire with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. Four people were killed in Hama and one each in Hasaka, Daraa, Idlib, Keseh, Zabadany and Deir Ezzor, according to the Local Coordination Committees (LCC) of Syria, an opposition group that organizes and documents protests in Syria. Government forces killed six people they described as terrorists Saturday, and arrested 20, the SANA reported Sunday. SANA said four members of the security forces had been killed in the clashes.

Andrew Gilligan, of the Telegraph reports that the Opposition is beginning to kill as many Syrians as the Army.

“the death toll among the security forces is now starting to surpass that of the protesters. … Last weekend, across the country, at least 35 members of the army and police died. As the regime reaps what it has sown, what’s happening in this part of Syria looks increasingly like armed conflict.”

The Tunisian Annahda Leadership kicked out the Syrian ambassador and recognized the SNC.

Coordinating Committees in Syria – Who are the real leaders of the revolution and how Islamist are they? According to one friend who has spent time with a number of tansiqiyat leaders:

The tansiqiyat are nor one group of people. They are probably more than 500 groups who do not share many things other than hating the regime. Some of them are not Muslims, many are not religious at all, some drink alcohol and didn’t fast in Ramadan.

The tansiqiyat in villages and suburbs are mostly conservative and some are islamist. those in the city are more politically aware and secular. I met some in the cities who are young engineers, doctors, bankers etc. all are very tech-savvy.

The thing is that the tech-savvy well-prepared Ikhwan and FB revolution page ( and later SNC members ) are well connected with the tansiqiyat since day one. They are the central command for many isolated, lost and clueless tansiqiyat. So they fell under their charm as the only saviors!

This is unfortunate as the internal opposition is only in control of smaller number of tansiqiyat as it is more dangerous and easier to get caught than communicating with people through skype under the safety of TOR. So the poor tansiqyat were thrown to the lap of the islamists and the SNC. it’s not who they are it’s who they were pushed to be.

Turkey is hardening it line toward Syria. It has signaled possible support for a buffer zone to protect Syrian civilians if Damascus continues its crackdown on democracy protests, as tensions rise between the two former strategic partners. The financial Times reports that  Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, told the FT that Ankara was preparing targeted sanctions against Damascus and left the door open for more drastic steps at a later date, such as a buffer zone or a no fly-zone on Syrian territory.

Syrian Colonel Says He Leads Armed Rebellion: L.A. Times, 2011-11-02

In the interview, Col. Assad declined to say whether his forces were conducting cross-border operations from Turkey. He appealed to the international community to impose a “no fly” zone similar to what the North Atlantic Treaty Organization enforced over Libya. He also called for a “buffer zone” in Syria that would provide protection for fleeing civilians — and create a haven for his forces.

Reporting from Antakya, Turkey, and Beirut— From his heavily guarded enclave in Turkey, a leading Syrian defector says he is heading an armed rebellion against the regime of President Bashar Assad. The brutality of the regime in Damascus left him …

Erdogan Says Syrian Political Structures ‘Totalitarian’:

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) — Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Syria is suffering from “totalitarian” political structures. Erdogan, speaking today in Berlin at a news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said he cannot accept what’s happening in Syria…. Noting that Syria and Turkey share a 910-kilometer border and have a common destiny, he underlined the importance of unity and order in Syria, saying Turkey would be hurt if Syria’s national unity and territorial integrity were harmed.

Assad’s interview on Russian TV Sunday Oct 30, 2011

According to Al-Qabas daily, the Arab League ministerial delegation to Damascus warned Assad that failure to resolve the crisis within an Arab fold would mean “internationalizing” the issue…. “This would mean Syria should expect a foreign intervention and a painful international blockade on the economy and other aspects,” it added.

Gulf State Ministers make Demand that Syria Introduce Radical Reforms and Democracy in exchange for Lifting Sanctions and an End to Demonization Campaign against Syria – Monday, October 31, 2011: Elections

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Russia Opposes Isolating Syria, Interfax Reports, Cites Lavrov, 2011-11-01, by Paul Abelsky

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) — Russia is opposed to isolating Syria, Interfax reported, citing Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

NATO Chief Rules Out No-fly Zone For Syria, 2011-10-31

TRIPOLI (AFP)–NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen ruled out the possibility of a no-fly zone for Syria, in remarks to an AFP correspondent as he travelled Monday to Tripoli to mark the end of the alliance’s air war in Libya. “It’s totally ruled out. We have no intention whatsoever to intervene in Syria,” Rasmussen said when asked if there was a possibility NATO would now spearhead a no-fly zone in Syria….

Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani told reporters after the meeting that Assad risks forcing an international intervention if he allows the violence to continue.

Syria’s Assad on media offensive to defy critics By Nehal El-Sherif, DPA

….US-led consultations are secretly taking place, in renewed international efforts to bring back the Syrian file to the United Nations Security Council. China and Russia vetoed a UN resolution this month critical of al-Assad’s crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, which would have targeted his government with further sanctions. Syrian opposition figure Fawaz Zakri said that the impetus to taking the Syria file back to the Security Council came after comments by China’s special envoy to the Middle East. Wu Sike, who had visited Damascus last week, said that the “dangerous situation in Syria cannot continue,” adding that “Syria must show some flexibility to help the Arab League implement its proposal.” “These statements have encouraged the world again to make a decision because it means a change in the Chinese position,” said Zakri, who is based in Turkey…..

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan Calls Syrian Protests ’Glorious’

Sen. Toomey Co-Sponsors Syria Sanctions Act Of 2011, 2011-11-01. Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R-PA) News Release

October 31, 2011 (Federal Information & News Dispatch) — WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senator Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) co-sponsored the bipartisan Syria Sanctions Act (S. 1472), directing the president to implement stronger sanctions on Syria. The increased pressure on Syrian President Bashar al- Assad will send an important message that his tyrannical and violent actions

Monkey Cage: How Important is Turkey’s Support of the Free Syrian Army?
2011-10-30

This week, the New York Times reported that Turkey has begun to actively support the Free Syrian Army by providing shelter in a camp guarded by the Turkish military. From the Times: Turkey is hosting an armed opposition group waging an insurgency …

Dan Byman, Peter Chalk, et al also identified sanctuary as the most important type of support an insurgent group can receive, as it allows rebels to move and organize freely, to import weapons, and to train for operations. However, they write:

Foreign assistance in the form of international sanctuaries, while often extremely useful to guerrillas, can also have a negative impact. In moving abroad, insurgents risk cutting themselves off from their base of popular support. Resting and recuperating across a border, while providing obvious benefits, also carries the danger of operational isolation from potentially lucrative political and military targets.

Michel Kilo’s view of Assad in an interview:

” ??? ?? ??? ????? ??? ???? ??? .. ????? ?? ???? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ??? ????? ??????? ? ??? ??????????? .. ???? ??? ???? ????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ??? ??? ??????? .. ? ??? ??? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ???? ?? ????

See this very useful website: syriapolicy.com

Hundreds of students clashed today in Kalamoon university (loyalists vs. Opposition) after a day of similar debate which took place in the university. These are the sons and daughters of the richest people in syria, studying at an expensive university (by SYRian standards). If this is the case among the “elite” then no wonder people are killing each other in the villages. The university is closed for the rest of the week. Can someone check with Sami Mubayed on what really happened?

Assad: challenge Syria at your peril,
By Andrew Gilligan, in Damascus, 29 Oct 2011, Telegraph

Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, has warned that Western action against his country would cause an “earthquake” that would “burn the whole region”. President Assad admitted that ‘many mistakes’ had been made by his forces in the early part of the uprising, but insisted that only terrorists’ were now being targeted

In his first interview with a Western journalist since Syria’s seven-month uprising began, President Assad told The Sunday Telegraph that intervention against his regime could cause “another Afghanistan”.

Western countries “are going to ratchet up the pressure, definitely,” he said. “But Syria is different in every respect from Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen. The history is different. The politics is different.

“Syria is the hub now in this region. It is the fault line, and if you play with the ground you will cause an earthquake … Do you want to see another Afghanistan, or tens of Afghanistans?

“Any problem in Syria will burn the whole region. If the plan is to divide Syria, that is to divide the whole region.”

Thousands of anti-government demonstrators took to the streets in two Syrian cities on Friday to demand the imposition of a Libyan-style no-fly zone over the country. According to the United Nations, at least 3,000 civilians, including 187 children, have been killed during protests against the regime. Thousands more have been imprisoned. The government says 1,200 members of the security forces have also died.

President Assad admitted that “many mistakes” had been made by his forces in the early part of the uprising, but insisted that only “terrorists” were now being targeted.

“We have very few police, only the army, who are trained to take on al-Qaeda,” he said. “If you sent in your army to the streets, the same thing would happen. Now, we are only fighting terrorists. That’s why the fighting is becoming much less.”

On Friday alone, however, opposition groups claimed that 40 people were killed by the regime, and government troops shelled a district of Homs, a centre of opposition.

Seventeen soldiers also died in overnight clashes with suspected army deserters in the city, which foreign journalists are forbidden to enter.

Syria was condemned yesterday by Arab League foreign ministers for its “continued killings of civilians”.

The number of protesters appeared to fall earlier this month, but has increased again after the death of Col Gaddafi gave opposition groups new heart. A general strike affected much of the southern part of the country.

President Assad insisted that he had responded differently to the Arab Spring than other, deposed Arab leaders. “We didn’t go down the road of stubborn government,” he said. “Six days after [the protests began] I commenced reform. People were sceptical that the reforms were an opiate for the people, but when we started announcing the reforms, the problems started decreasing e_SLps This is when the tide started to turn. This is when people started supporting the government.”

Some Damascus-based opposition leaders say the reforms, which include laws ostensibly allowing demonstrations and political parties, are a start, but not enough. However, the leaders of the main protests say they are meaningless and President Assad must go.

“The problem with the government is that their dialogue is shallow and just a tool to gain time,” said Kadri Jamil, of Kassioun, a Damascus-based opposition group. “They have to act to begin real dialogue because the security solution has failed. We have one to two months before we pass the point of no return.”

One Homs-based opposition activist said: “Killing people is not an act of reform. We aren’t calling for economic or even political reform under Assad, but for the departure of this bloodstained president and free elections.”

President Assad said: “The pace of reform is not too slow. The vision needs to be mature. It would take only 15 seconds to sign a law, but if it doesn’t fit your society, you’ll have division … It’s a very complicated society.”

He described the uprising as a “struggle between Islamism and pan-Arabism [secularism], adding: “We’ve been fighting the Muslim Brotherhood since the 1950s and we are still fighting with them.”

In interviews in Damascus, some without government minders, secular Syrians and members of the country’s substantial Christian and Alawite minorities said they supported the Assad regime for fear of their positions under a new government. Those attending a large demonstration in support of the regime last Wednesday did not appear to be coerced, according to independent observers.

However, interviews, even some with minders present, revealed widespread and vocal discontent over corruption and living standards.

CNN: Syria sets out to draft new constitution, 2011-10-30

Syrians aiming to write a new constitution for the strife-torn country will meet for the first time on Monday, the state news agency reported Sunday, after a weekend of intense violence. Syria sets out to draft new constitution Sun, 30 Oct 2011 08 …

Guardian (GB): Is Syria next for Nato?, 2011-11-02, Robert Dreyfuss

Now that Nato is closing up shop in Libya, will it turn to Syria? Right now, the answer is no. But if the fragmented Syrian opposition – bolstered by Turkey, a member of Nato, which is turning increasingly against the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad – manages to set up a Benghazi-like enclave either inside Syria or across the border in Turkey, anything goes. To be sure, there are lots of differences between Libya and Syria.

Syria Mining Lebanon Border,  2011-11-01, By BASSEM MROUE

Serhaniyeh, Lebanon (AP) — Syria is planting landmines along parts of the country’s border with Lebanon as refugees stream out of the country …. A Syrian official familiar with government strategy claimed the mines are meant to prevent arms smuggling into Syria.

AP Exclusive: New Signs of Syria-Pakistan Nuke Tie, 2011-11-01, By DESMOND BUTLER and GEORGE JAHN

Washington (AP) — U.N. investigators have identified a previously unknown complex in Syria that bolsters suspicions that the Syrian government worked with A.Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s atomic bomb, to acquire technology that could make nuclear arms. The buildings in northwest Syria closely match the design of a uranium enrichment plant provided to Libya when Moammar Gadhafi was trying to build nuclear weapons under Khan’s guidance, officials told The Associated Press. The U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency also has obtained correspondence between Khan and a Syrian government official, Muhidin Issa, who proposed scientific cooperation and a visit to Khan’s laboratories following Pakistan’s successful nuclear test in 1998.

The complex, in the city of Al-Hasakah, now appears to be a cotton-spinning plant, and investigators have found no sign that it was ever used for nuclear production. But given that Israeli warplanes destroyed a suspected plutonium production reactor in Syria in 2007, the unlikely coincidence in design suggests Syria may have been pursuing two routes to an atomic bomb: uranium as well as plutonium. Details of the Syria-Khan connection were provided to the AP by a senior diplomat with knowledge of IAEA investigations and a former U.N. investigator.

Syria’s government confident, but country polarized, By Liz Sly, in Wash Post: October 28

DAMASCUS, SYRIA — President Bashar al-Assad’s government is confident that it has weathered the worst of the turmoil sweeping Syria and will soon be able to overcome any remaining challenges to its survival.

Whether that confidence is justified — and how broadly it is shared — is in question. Even as the government boasts that it is prevailing over the eight-month-old uprising, the economy is imploding, protests persist in many parts of the country and an armed rebellion is stirring…..

The failure of the Syrian opposition to present a united front and articulate a clear vision of what a post-Assad future would look like is also keeping silent the majority of Syrians, who have neither joined the protests nor support the government, Western diplomats say….

LA Times [Reg]: Syrian Americans in Syria feel unfairly targeted by sanctions, 2011-10-27

Ahmad is not one of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s cronies. But since August, when the U.S. imposed its most recent sanctions on Syria — which Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said targeted “Assad and dozens of his cronies” in the wake … Under the order signed by President Obama, an American working in Syria is deemed an exported service and in violation of the sanctions. The livelihoods of some have been devastated….. He said one Syrian American doctor he knows had left Syria rather than risk getting into trouble for treating patients. Others, faced with having to end their business interests and radically alter their lives in Syria, have decided to stay anyway. Still others are holding out hope that the sanctions won’t be enforced on American citizens not connected to the regime.

Austrian Airlines will cancel all of its flights from and to Syria as of 1 December.

Goldman Sachs Rips Off Libya, Donald Trump Admits Screwing Gaddafi –

Syrian opposition struggles to unite By Zeina Karam
Associated Press / October 28, 2011

The council’s leadership — currently headed by Burhan Ghalioun, a professor at the Sorbonne in Paris — will rotate every three months, reflecting the absence of a single popular leader who stands out among the country’s disparate groups.

The council’s formation is a remarkable achievement given Syria’s complex sectarian and ethnic makeup.

But the group has yet to gain the recognition of any countries other than Libya and faces criticism from opposition groups that declined to join, accusing it of trying to monopolize the movement.

Haitham al-Maleh, an 80-year-old lawyer who was imprisoned for years for his political activism, also accused the SNC of sidelining major figures and said the group never consulted him.

“We have a 50-year history of struggle against this regime, while nobody had heard of these people before,” he said of the SNC leaders.

Bassma Kodmani, another Paris-based academic and a spokeswoman for the council, rejected the accusations and said the SNC was open for all Syrians. “We did not exclude anybody,” she said, insisting the council represented the majority of Syrian society.

An attempt in July to hold a dual meeting in Damascus and Istanbul was canceled when security forces besieged the conference location in Damascus a day before it was scheduled to begin and shot dead 14 protesters in the area.

Foreign leaders have welcomed the formation of the SNC, but say the opposition needs more work to become an effective political force.

“The opposition must still improve its organizational and outreach efforts,” said U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, who returned to Washington this week over security concerns.

He said developing consensus around a specific political and economic plan would help persuade Sunni business elites and other Syrians still on the fence to defect from the regime.

“There is a huge need for the council to explain what exactly they will bring to Syria,” Ford said during an address this month to The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

A key sticking point is whether to ask for foreign intervention like the NATO airstrikes that helped oust former Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi.

The SNC’s founding statement rejects foreign intervention, but its members are calling for “international protection for civilians,” an ambiguous statement that leaves the door open for interpretation. The NATO action in Libya was carried out under a U.N. mandate to protect civilians but ultimately proved key to the rebel victory that led to Gadhafi’s death.

Haytham Manna, a Paris-based dissident who heads the external branch of a smaller rival group called the National Committee for Democratic Change, objects to any possibility of military intervention.

“The Libyan experience is a painful one,” he said. “There has been so much destruction and I don’t wish for my country anything like that.”

Manna, whose brother was killed by Syrian security forces in the southern town of Daraa during a funeral in August, says the SNC had no right to say they represented Syria.

“Having one representative is dangerous and reminds us of the one-party rule which we have been fighting for decades,” he said.

Another key point of contention is whether to negotiate with the regime. Some dissidents point to dialogue as one of the only ways out, but others reject the idea as long as the government keeps up its deadly military assault on protesters.

Extract from an interview with Burhan Gallioun, leader of the Syrian National Council, sent out by a Kurdish group:

In answer to a question about the fear of the Kurds and Arabisation in Syria, and institutional racial discrimination suffered by the Kurds since 1958 when the name of the county changed to the United Arab Republic:

The interviewer asked:How can you make a Kurd feel assured about his future in Syria,when you are hoisting a state emblem of the new Syrian state which is Arabised, I mean, from the beginning he is excluded, therefore the conflict between the poles of the opposition is not just about the goal of toppling of the regime, but there are fundamental significant differences between the poles of the opposition?

Gallioun: No, no, there was exaggeration by some of the Kurdish brothers who raised the idea that it should be the Syrian Republic rather than the Syrian Arab Republic, but … of course, Syria is an Arab state .. there is no discussion about this .. there is no debate that Syria is an Arab country because the majority of the population are Arabs … because participation in the history, culture and geography does not mean denying the existence of groups and clusters of other nations, and speaking other languages, just as we say France is France, but of course there are Muslims and immigrants from Asian countries. The discussion is not about the identity for Syria. Kurds … you cannot tell the Syrian Arabs that you are not Arabs … is that OK? Here is the wall.

Interviewer: Is this not a condition of the civil state?

Gallioun: No, no there are no conditions ……….. the media created this story that there is deep disagreement about the identity of Syria, the identity of Syria is clear …………

The Kurdish people are very upset about the comments made above. They are indigenous to the area, not immigrants, and they are a separate nation from the Arabs. The SNC leader has the same view of Kurds as the current regime in Syria.

Unreported World this time from Syria – Channel 4 documentary film – 21.10.2011

Facebook and the Arab Spring: A medium or a tool?

Austria Money-Printers Expensed Viagra, Bribed Syria: Standard, 2011-10-28 , By Boris Groendahl

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) — Managers of Austrian money-printer Oesterreichische Banknoten- und Sicherheitsdruck GmbH may havepaid bribes to get orders from Syria and and may have expensed items including Viagra, newspaper Der Standard reported, citing an internal review of the Austrian central bank, OeBS’s owner. The auditors found “unusual” expenses of as much as 600,000 euros, which included charges claimed for furniture in a Romanian apartment as well as for Pfizer Inc.’s impotence drug, the Vienna-based daily said. They also found payments of as much as 14 million euros ($20 million) made to win contracts to print Syrian bank notes, the paper reported.

14 million euro is a large bribe for a “printing” contract. Adeeb Mayale confirms that the printing contract was worth 29 million euro but he does not say whether this 29 million euro was yearly payment or one off. The Austrian prosecutors will have more to say on this perhaps ???? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ??? ??? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ?????????

POMES’s From Washington covers State Department statements and WINEP views

Ambassador Pulled from Syria: Robert Ford was brought back to Washington due to credible threats against his safety in Syria, though he has not formally been recalled. A report released by Amnesty International alleged that hospitals have become “instruments of repression.” David Schenker argued that the administration should “focus on expediting the end of the regime,” and Elliott Abrams noted that the goal of “U.S. policy should be to end the violence and lay the bases for a stable democratic system.” French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe announced that Assad’s regime “will almost certainly fall under the pressure of protests and sanctions.” Jeffrey White said the risks of not intervening in Syria are great.  Jim Brann asserted that the West has been reticent to intervene because ”Syria is seen as being much more problematic [than Libya].” Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford met with Hillary Clinton to update her on the situation in Syria; Victoria Nuland said, “the violence needs to end…that the arrest and the torture and the brutality needs to come to an end.”

Juan Cole writes of Tunisia

Tens of thousands of Syrians rally in support of Assad ahead of Arab
2011-10-26

DAMASCUS, Oct. 26 (Xinhua) — Tens of thousands of Syrians rallied Wednesday in support for President Bashar al-Assad hours before the arrival of an Arab League (AL) ministerial delegation that aimed at finding ways to end the months-long crisis in the country.

The Umayyad Square in the capital of Damascus and nearby streets were packed with supporters of Assad, who is up against blistering international criticism over his alleged bloody crackdown on protest movement.

The Qatari Prime minister in Damascus

Press conference after the Arab League meeting with President Assad. He said that the questions that they talked about were secret, but that they were serious and touched on all the important topics. He asked for the halt to violence from both sides and the end of armed demonstrations. They will be meeting again soon either in Damascus or Doha.

Homs, northwest Syria strike to protest crackdown 26/10/2011

AMMAN, (Reuters) – People in the city of Homs and nearby areas of northwest Syria staged a general strike on Wednesday over President Bashar al-Assad’s intensifying military crackdown on protesters, and two were killed in one town, activists and residents said.

They said most employees stayed home and most shops closed in the city of one million, and the strike was observed in wide swathes of the countryside around Homs and cities and towns in the northwestern province of Idlib near Turkey.

“Public employees participated for the first time. A few food shops have remained open,’ said a resident of Homs, who gave his name as Omar. Youtube footage showed shuttered shops on both sides of a main street in the nearby rural region of Houla.

Defectors Claim Attack That Killed Syria Soldiers
By NADA BAKRI
Published: October 26, 2011

BEIRUT, Lebanon — A force of Syrian Army defectors claimed responsibility for a Wednesday attack that killed a military officer and eight soldiers in central Syria, another signal that disaffected troops are taking a larger role in the antigovernment uprising and pushing it into more violence after months of a brutal government crackdown…..

Robert Fisk: Syria slips towards sectarian war
Stories of killings in Homs are reinforcing support for Assad in Damascus

…..We shall see if this gets on air on Saturday (readers will be kept informed) but outside in the street another pro-Assad demonstration was starting, 10,000 then 50,000 – it might have reached 200,000 by midday – and there was no Saddam-style trucking of the people to the Omayad Square, no mukhabarat intelligence presence and the only soldiers were standing with their families. How does one report a pro-government demo during the Arab Awakening? There were veiled women, old men, thousands of children with “Syria” written on their faces. Most held Syrian flags, some held the flags of Russia and China.

Were they coerced? I don’t think so – not by the Assad government, at least. ….

Ankara will not tolerate Syrian repression, FM says

 Turkey has no intention of permitting any chaos or oppression in Syria, Turkey’s foreign minister has said, adding that Ankara would do everything to ensure that the Syrian people realize their rightful demands.

We will not allow any chaos or oppression in Syria, this is our responsibility toward the Syrian people,” Davuto?lu told a joint press conference with his Jordanian counterpart, Nasser Judeh, in Amman….

Turkey Is Sheltering Antigovernment Syrian Militia
2011-10-27 By LIAM STACK

(New York Times) — ANTAKYA, Turkey — Once one of Syria’s closest allies, Turkey is hosting an armed opposition group waging an insurgency against the government of  President Bashar al-Assad, providing shelter to the commander and dozens of members of the group, the Free Syrian Army, and allowing them to orchestrate attacks across the border from inside a camp guarded by the Turkish military. The support for the insurgents comes amid a broader Turkish campaign to undermine Mr. Assad’s government. Turkey is expected to impose sanctions soon on Syria, and it has deepened its support for an umbrella political opposition group known as the Syrian National Council, which announced its formation in Istanbul. But its harboring of leaders in the Free Syrian Army, a militia composed of defectors from the Syrian armed forces, may be its most striking challenge so far to Damascus….

“We will fight the regime until it falls and build a new period of stability and safety in Syria,” Colonel As’aad said in an interview arranged by the Turkish Foreign Ministry and conducted in the presence of a foreign ministry official. “We are the leaders of the Syrian people and we stand with the Syrian people.”

The interview was held in the office of a local government official, and Colonel As’aad arrived protected by a contingent of 10 heavily armed Turkish soldiers, including one sniper. The colonel wore a business suit purchased that morning by the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and at the end of the meeting, citing security concerns, the colonel and a Foreign Ministry official advised that all further contact with his group be channeled through the Turkish Foreign Ministry….

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey was personally offended by Mr. Assad’s repeated failure to abide by his assurances that he would undertake sweeping reform. Turkish officials predict that the Assad government may collapse within the next two years….

By Ehsani:

It seems to me that islamists are being held to a much higher standards than other religions. Barry Rubin is afraid of islamists but he is ok with israel as a religious state. I think that none of us can have our cake and eat it. That the majority of the people of this region are more religious than i would like is a fact. That after so many years of failures of their leaders they have turned to religion and GOD under the banner of “islam is the solution” is not surprising. When you have to live on $300 a month with 3 kids only GOD can get you going. Whether we like it or not, this region wants to throw away the exisiting order. Do they have an alternative that we like? most likely not. They clearly want to try islam. I think that this transition period is inevitable. The period may well be longer and uglier than we would like but unless we can offer a brilliant alternative, it is hard to see how this trend can be reversed. Iran started on this track back in 1979. The ayatollahs took over and promised the moon. In my opinion they have failed just like the current crop of “islam is the solution” crowd will most likely fail. But, try they will and may be try they must before the region’s next phase sees the light of day. In the meantime, the best we may hope for is that Turkish style rather than salafi style end up rising to the top should a change of the exisiting order actually materialize.

Haaretz: France FM: Fall of Assad government in Syria ‘unavoidable’, 2011-10-26

The government of Syrian President Bashar Assad will almost certainly fall under the pressure of protests and sanctions, but it will take time due to the complexity of internal and regional politics, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said on …

Treasury Official Heads To Europe To Discuss Iran Sanctions
2011-10-24

The U.S. Treasury Department said Monday that its top sanctions official will head to Europe this week to discuss global efforts to impose sanctions against Iran. David S. Cohen, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, will meet …

ASCF: EU Leaders Threaten Syria with More Sanctions, Urge Assad to Resign, 2011-10-24

Region: Middle East Topics: Emerging Threats, National Preparedness The European Union has threatened more sanctions against Syria if the government crackdown on dissent continues. EU leaders warned Damascus Sunday they “will impose further and …

Syria, Iraq to establish Joint Free Trade Zones – 23/10/2011

DAMASCUS- Director-General of the General Establishment for Free Zones Abdul-Hakim Qaddah on Sunday discussed with Chairman of the Iraqi Free Zones Commission Saleh al-Qaisi and the accompanying delegation the possibility of establishing two joint Syrian-Iraqi free trade zones in al-Ya’arubyia and al-Bukamal in Syria and in Rabia and al-Qaem in Iraq.

The two sides also discussed the means of facilitating the work at the joint free trade zones to increase the volume of trade exchange between the two countries and to introduce the businessmen and the investors on the available economic and investments capabilities and to develop them.

Clarifying the economic and investment regulations in force at the free trade zones, and highlighting the facilitations provided to the Arab and foreign investors through holding conferences, scientific and economic symposiums and benefiting from the experiences in this domain were also on the table.

He added that establishing joint free trade zones would contribute to increasing the flow of goods between the two countries and would enhance the operational capacity of the Syrian and Iraqi ports, in addition to decreasing the costs of goods.

Haynes Mahoney, the embassy’s deputy chief of mission, confirmed that Ford has left Syria but said Washington hadn’t not formally recalled him — a symbolically significant diplomatic step.

Nikolaos van Dam in the Montreal Review on Syria
The Montreal Review?

Time: Syria’s Kurds: Are They About to Join the Uprising Against Assad?, 2011-10-24

There is popular anger at the regime but the various political organizations that represent the ethnic minority seem to be in the way Syria’s Kurds: Are They About to Join the Uprising Against Assad?

Journalist witnesses Syrian authorities torturing activists, Channel 4 News

From the Comment Section

(1) France has a fundamental and firm policy that the UN Security Council is the only authority that can authorize a military attack against a sovereign country. That policy is self-serving for France; see France’s status on the Security Council. But France also has the influence to keep Germany and other European countries going along with the same policy.
(2) As reported by Today’s Zaman newspaper in Turkey, the foreign ministry of Turkey is advising the Syrian National Council in Turkey to “to work in a peaceful manner for democratic transformation in Syria”. Turkey’s foreign ministry is also saying that it will not recognize the Syrian National Council as representative of anything, at least not any time soon.
(3) The USA position was summarized as follows by USA Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford in an interview with “Time Magazine” published on 28 Sep 2011: “One of the things we’ve told the opposition is that they should not think we are going to treat Syria the same way we treated Libya. The main thing for the opposition to do is figure out how to win away support from the regime, and not look to outsiders to try and solve the problem. This is a Syrian problem and it needs Syrian solutions….” Ford is strongly advising the opposition against a turn to arms. “It would be a mistake,” he says, not least because “you want to be sure that if you’re even contemplating this, you have a way to know that whatever you’re going to do militarily is going to be effective … I very frankly say to people, you don’t have enough force to fight the Syrian army, you’re not even close. We have to be realistic.” Other USA officials have said much the same thing during the past few weeks. (US foreign!
ministry spokesman Jeffrey Feltman said on Al-Arabiya TV yesterday “We are looking for better ways to protect Syrian civilians, but we do not look here to apply the Libyan model in Syria” — http://www.facebook.com/News.About.Syria?sk=wall
(4) The Arab League has said repeatedly recently that it is opposed to foreign intervention in Syria. At the Arab League meeting in Cairo on 16 Oct, as reported later by Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, three measures against Syria were considered and rejected: foreign military intervention, the imposition of trade sanctions, and freezing Syria’s membership in the Arab League. Arab League countries who rejected those measures included Egypt, Algeria, Iraq, Oman, Lebanon, Yemen, Sudan, and Syria.
(5) Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah in interview on Al-Manar (#156) said the Syrian people support President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, but if the people start opposing the regime, we [Hezbollah] will support the people. Think about that.

IF THE WHOLE OF SYRIA IS ALSO GROWING AT 3.46%, THEN THE CURRENT 23 MILLION WILL BE 100 MILLION BY 2055 – Tuesday, October 25, 2011 3:06 PM

??? ???? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ???????? ????? ??? ??? 3.46% ????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ???? ???? ??????? ???? ???? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ???????? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ??????? ???? ???? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ???????? ???? ??? ???? ?????? ??? ??????? ?????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? 2013!!

Iran’s Supreme Leader Floats Proposal to Abolish Presidency
2011-10-25, By Thomas Erdbrink

Oct. 25 (Washington Post) — TEHRAN — A proposal by Iran’s supreme leader to radically alter the country’s constitution and abolish the presidency is drawing praise from his  supporters but criticism from influential politicians. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was appointed supreme leader for life in 1989 by Shiite Muslim clerics, said in a speech last week that, if deemed appropriate, Iran could do without a president. The post is currently held by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose 2009  reelection was disputed by opponents and led to months of street protests. Former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said publicly Tuesday that the proposal strongly undermines the ideal of an Islamic republic, in which the people elect their leaders. Ahmadinejad, for his part, said in a speech Tuesday in the eastern city of Birjand, “We will not respond but know that the
nation is awake.” He was vague on whether he was specifically addressing the proposal to eliminate his position.

Ahmadinejad stressed that no one should have problems with “the people” and said that “if the time comes that anyone wants to block them from progressing, they will remove him in two seconds,” the Fararu Web site wrote. Under the proposal, Iran would be ruled by Khamenei working in tandem with parliament, which would continue to be directly elected and would appoint one of its members to serve as prime minister.

Ouster of Syria’s Assad would be ‘opportunity’ for Israel (video)

Michael Oren, Israel’s ambassador to the US, said Tuesday it will take more time to know how the democratic uprisings in Arab nations will affect relations with Israel. But ‘possible ouster’ of President Assad in Syria would afford ‘an opportunity to us,’ he said.

Fresh Plaza (NL): Libya’s economy to shrink more than 50% after conflict
2011-10-26 14:22:36.602 GMT

Libya’s economy to shrink more than 50% after conflict Libya’s economy will contract more than 50 percent in 2011 as eight months of fighting paralyzed its oil industry, the International Monetary Fund said. “The conflict has had a severe …

DJ US Ambassador Hopes To Be Back In Syria Next Month
2011-10-26 20:17:51.187 GMT

WASHINGTON (AFP)–U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, who was abruptly withdrawn this week because of security threats, hopes to return to Damascus before the end of November, the State Department said Wednesday.

“Let me just say he has bought his Thanksgiving turkey for his embassy staff, and he wants very much to have Thanksgiving dinner for his folks there. So that’s our expectation, it will be sometime before Thanksgiving,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said. Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 24 this year.

Posted by Joshua Landis

The Syrian opposition has been given renewed vigor following the killing of Qaddafi. Senator John McCain said Sunday that military action to protect civilians in Syria might be considered now that NATO’s air campaign in Libya is ending.

Mohammad Habash, a member of Syria’s outgoing parliament, said such military action “will only bring catastrophes, wars and blood and this is what we don’t wish at all.”  “We believe that the best way to protect civilians is diplomatic pressure and pushing the regime to sit and talk with the opposition and pushing the opposition to sit with the regime,” said Habash, who has been linked to the regime but has recently tried to position himself between the government and the opposition.

President al-Assad has named new governors for the province of Idlib and the Damascus governorate. Assad forces shelled civilian houses in Baba Amr, Homs At least thirty civilians were killed in Homs, Hama, Daraa and Idlib in the last few days.

Qaddafi’s downfall can only be cheered even as one is horrified by his brutal end and the unruly vengeance and looting that has overtaken several towns and parts of Libya. Unfortunately, it is easy to envisage similar destruction and violence being visited on Syria as so many now predict civil war. The government’s primary tactic for regaining control — inducing fear — increases the desire for retribution. Those of us with family in Syria are plotting ways to get them out as the situation becomes ever more violent.

Lest anyone think that revenge is a specialty of the Arab World, it is worth remembering that after the fall of the Vichy government in 1945, the French killed over 10,000 collaborators during the first phase (the épuration sauvage) of retribution. Once France’s provisional government got control of the process many fewer were killed. The commissions d’épuration sentenced approximately 120,000 persons but only 6,763 people were condemned to death (3,910 in absentia) and only 791 executions were actually carried out. Many were given prison terms. More common was “national degradation,” a loss of face and civil rights, which was meted out to 49,723 people.

Economy

Inflation has hit Syria. Nowhere more brutally than the energy sector – the main target of European sanctions. Ehsani writes:

The topic in Syria is mazot (kerosene oil, used for heating) as we enter winter. The official price is syp 15 but no one sells at that price. Families who want to stock up for the winter and who have mazot tanks on their roofs or basements need to pay syp 32-33 to get them delivered. An average house (my sister) consumes 2000 liters a year. Others (like my dad) consume as much as 8000 liters a year. With a price difference of syp 17-18 from official prices, filling up 2000 liter tanks is a hit of syp 35,000. Most don’t want to bite the bullet and pay it for they still hope to avoid the hit and pay the official price of SYP 15. This is the recent major calculation of households. Many cars use mazot too (taxis and service). Those are essentially stranded at gas stations. They wait for hours hoping to fill in at SYP 15 with little luck.

National Budget did not increase by 58% and the missing oil revenue

As many of us were unable to account for the oil revenues, the government is finally trying to explain the discrepancy. In a nutshell, the subsidies of close to $7 billion were never part of the budget. Instead, they were accounted for by lowering the revenues from oil. The budget this year did the right thing. It counted oil revenue correctly and then hit the subsidies as expenditures (rather than lower revenues). This is why the whole budget went up by 58% (both sides went up). If you exclude this accounting change, they claim that the budget is up 15%. This is a significant move in the right direction. The total subsidies now of syp 386 billion of which over SYP 300 are on energy are now fully accounted for. They make up 1/3 of every dollar that the government spends/invests. The subsidies go largely to the rich.

Opposition News

As the situation deteriorates, ever more importance must be placed on the Syrian opposition to see that something good comes out of this struggle and that it proceeds with as much central and rational direction as possible. See this invaluable website on the Syrian parties and currents: http://www.syrianparties.info/

Samer Araabi explains how the Syrian National Council Seeks Legitimacy At Home and Abroad. Western governments seem to be keeping the Syrian National Council are arms length for the time being, fearing that it is heavily tilted toward the Islamic currents.

Here is what Anthony Shadid writes in NYTimes on the National Council:

Unlike with Libya, Western officials have called the council’s formation a positive step but offered little more. “I think we will have to find out a bit more yet,” said Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief. (So far, only Libya’s new government has recognized the council as the representative of Syria’s people.)

An Obama administration official was especially critical, saying the council had lobbied the international community more than Syrians themselves, particularly the Christian and Alawite minorities. The official declined to refer to the council as the opposition, but rather as “oppositionists,” in reflection of the body’s embryonic nature.

“It’s a right step, but we’re still skeptical basically,” the official in Washington said. “We’re far from a real body that fully represents the Syrian people.”

Within the opposition, some worry about the disproportionate power of Islamists, namely the Muslim Brotherhood, especially given its lack of any organizational presence inside Syria. Others suggest Turkey may seek to corral the opposition, and some activists were opposed to holding the meeting in Istanbul. Though Turkish officials have sought to place themselves broadly on the side of change in the Arab world, they have deep relations with Islamist movements in Egypt, Tunisia and the Palestinian territories.

While Mr. Ghalioun has said the council opposes the intervention of NATO, even if it is not on the table, others have endorsed what they call international protection of protesters, an admittedly ambiguous position, or no-fly zones or havens along Syria’s borders. Inside Syria, some dissidents still caution against the overthrow of Mr. Assad — fearing civil war — and instead endorse gradual reform.

And though this month has witnessed one of the biggest Kurdish demonstrations, the community has yet to forcefully enter the fray on the opposition’s side.

“Things are still very blurred,” said Abdel-Basit Hammo, a Kurdish activist.

Some analysts say the opposition’s biggest challenge in the coming months is to elaborate precisely its vision for a future Syria, beyond a set of principles. Mr. Assad’s government is remarkable for its lack of any ideology; fear of chaos drives much of its support. Most slogans at last week’s pro-government protest paid tribute to the remnants of Mr. Assad’s personality cult, itself diminished by the viciousness of the crackdown.

“The key is whether they can offer a real alternative,” said Nadim Houry, senior researcher with Human Rights Watch in Beirut. “If they do, they would be setting the agenda, regardless of whether they are in Damascus or not. This is where their true power lies today, if they can set the agenda and define what tomorrow’s Syria will look like.”

Many Syrians are perturbed that not one of the opposition groups in Syria has proposed any economic plan or a new constitution. Indeed, the parties have been very slow to outline the answers they propose to Syria’s main problems other than overturning the regime. The press has been slow to ask such questions to the new leaders that are emerging.

1- what will you do about population growth?
2- what are your plans on subsidies and the public sector?
3- what is your vision of a new education system. How will you change it?
4- women in the region have the lowest labor participation in the world. Do you plan to change this for syria and how (highest correlation with fertility)?
5- what are your plans regarding the Golan?

Barry Rubin is pulling his hair out over the Islamists and blames the Obama administration for trusting the Turks with this.
Largely Islamist Leadership for Syrian Revolution, October 22, 2011 – 12:13 am – by Barry Rubin

The leadership of the Syrian revolution, or at least those recognized as such by the United States and the European Union, has released the names of 19 of the 29 members of the General Secretariat and five members of the Presidential Council. A lot of research should be done on the individuals, but let’s do a quick ethnic and political analysis based on this information.

But first let me give you my analysis: I believe that the Turkish Islamist regime deliberately helped produce a Syrian leadership that is more Islamist and more Muslim Brotherhood controlled than was necessary. Since Turkey’s government was empowered to do this by the Obama administration, the White House is responsible for this extremely dangerous situation. It is a blunder or a betrayal — in effect, the motive and cause don’t matter — of the greatest dimensions. The Obama administration may “only” have paved the way for the triumph of Islamist regimes in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia — we don’t yet know the final result — but it has been actively involved in helping promote an (avoidable) Islamist revolution in Syria.

Of the 19 members of the committee whose names have been published, 4 are identified as Muslim Brotherhood and 6 more as independent Islamists. That means 10 of the 19 — a majority — and hence 10 of the 15 Sunni Muslim Arabs (two-thirds) are Islamists!

Of the non-Islamist Sunni Arabs, two are leftists, two are liberals, and one represents the tribes. Some of the non-Islamists are really good people, as are some of those who have not yet been named publicly (and whose names aren’t going to be made public by me).

Still, thanks, Obama Administration, for putting Islamist Turkey in charge of the negotiations!

There are also two Christians (one a representative of the small Assyrian community), one Druze, and one Kurd. So that 40 percent of the non-Sunni Arab population (there are no Alawites listed) has only 20 percent representation. This might partly be due to the walk-out of many Kurds to protest the Turkish bias favoring the Islamists. But the over-representation of Sunni Arabs sends a signal to the minority groups as well as helps empower Islamists.

Of course, it is true that 10 members remain anonymous because they are inside Syria, but there’s no particular reason to believe they are of a different composition.

To my knowledge, not a single journalist or expert in the entire world has yet used this publicly available information and done the simple math involved. Yet this is the body that’s going to be receiving Western help and money, if any is offered to help bring a new government to Syria.

Name Political Affiliation Sectarian Background
1 Burhane Ghalioun Independent Left Sunni Arab / Homs
2 Samir Nashar Damascus Declaration Council Sunni Arab / Aleppo
3 Muhammad Taifur Muslim Brotherhood Sunni Arab / Hama
4 Basma Kodmani Independent Left Sunni Arab (spikesperson)
5 Abdelbasit Sida Independent Kurdish Activist Kurdish
6 Abdel Ahad Steifo Christian: Assyrian Democratic Movement Christian / Hassakeh
7 Ahmad Ramdan Old SNC, Islamist (Syrian Hamas Adviser) Sunni Arab
8 Ahmad Sayyid Youssef Muslim Brotherhood Sunni Arab / Homs
9 Abdel Hamid Atassy Damascus Declaration Council Sunni Arab / Homs
10 Abdel Ilah Milhem Tribal Coalition Sunni Arab / Homs
11 Emadiddine Rasheed Old SNC, Islamist (Religion Instructor) Sunni Arab / Damascus
12 Jabr Al-Shoufi Damascus Declaration Arab / Druze
13 Wa’el Mirza Old SNC, Islamist Sunni Arab
14 Muhammad Bassam Youssef Muslim Brotherhood Sunni Arab / Homs
15 Anas Al-Abdeh Damascus Declaration Council, Islamist Sunni Arab / Damascus
16 Kathryn Al-Talli Local Coordination Committees, Christian Christian
17 Motei Bateen LCCs, Islamist (Imam) Sunni Arab /Deraa (Hauran)
18 Najib Ghadbian Old SNC, Independent Islamist Sunni Arab / Damascus
19 Nazeer Hakeem Muslim Brotherhood Sunni Arab

The Presidential Council:

1 Burhane Ghalioun Independent Left Sunni Arab / Homs
2 Samir Nashar Damascus Declaration Council Sunni Arab / Aleppo
3 Muhammad Taifur Muslim Brotherhood Sunni Arab / Hama
4 Abdelbasit Sida Independent Kurdish Activist Kurdish
5 Abdel Ahad Steifo Christian: Assyrian Democratic Movement Christian / Hassakeh

Note that the Presidential Council is much more balanced with only one Islamist, and the remaining names include a leftist, a liberal, a Christian, and a Kurd. This seems, however, to be more for show to conceal the imbalance in the overall leadership.

Again, this doesn’t necessarily mean the actual leadership is highly Islamist, but it does indicate that the official leadership, chosen with U.S. participation, is far more balanced with only one Islamist…..

Islamists are increasingly gaining attention in Syrian affairs and organizing themselves. Not only are Israelis and US diplomats wringing their hands over this new phenomenon, but some Syrians and Lebanese are clearly interested in this constituency that is stepping out of the shadows for the first time in decades. The Jizel Khoury interview with one of Syria’s leading Salafis drew notice.

Interview: Loai Zou’bi by Jizel Khouri:(Youtube)

Loai Zou’bi is the leader of Syria’s Salafi movement called “Haraket al-Moumineen.” He claims that over 60 percent of Syria’s Muslims are Salafis. He refuses to quibble over whether they are Muslim Brothers or Salafis, preferring to group Syria’s Islamists in one camp.

Khoury asks Zou’bi if he would be willing to choose a Christian as president. He said, “Yes, if he is just (`aadil and not “zaalim”) He refuses to look at Jizel during the interview. He says that rather than veiling Jizel, he chooses not to look at her. Her blond hair is uncovered and her dress reveals the beginning of her cleavage, which he must find provocative. He keeps his eyes trained on a distant point on the floor throughout, in an attitude of humility and self-discipline.

On Syrian frontier, Turks bemoan soured ties

ANTAKYA, Turkey — Until recently, Hamdi Esen would make the short trip across to Syria several times a month, fill his father’s car up with gas, maybe buy a few bags of sugar and some cigarettes and then return home to Turkey.

But after Turkey stepped up criticism of Syria’s crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, Esen stopped going because of long waits at the border and the hostility he faced from Syrian security officials and even some regular citizens.

“I used to drive over to Syria every week and fill up my tank. Gasoline is so much cheaper there. But now I don’t go,” said 31-year-old Esen as he sat chatting with friends at a roadside tea house.

“They treat us differently. It’s as if they don’t like us anymore.”

Esen is from Antakya, the ancient city of Antioch, in Turkey’s southern Hatay province, a panhandle that juts down into Syria and was once part of it.

Syria May Switch From Euro to Ruble Banking
21 October 2011
Bloomberg

Syria may start using the Russian ruble for banking transactions if the European Union bans it from operations in euros, central bank governor Adib Mayaleh said Thursday.

As a first step, the Syrian central bank has begun posting the exchange rate for the ruble as well as the Chinese yuan on its daily bulletin, Mayaleh said in an interview with the Arabic-language Russia Today channel.

“Don’t forget that we can carry out operations in rubles,” Mayaleh said, according to an e-mailed transcript of the interview. “In the nearest future we will agree on parameters for switching to close cooperation with Russian banks and using the ruble for international settlements.”

The EU last week expanded sanctions against Syria in a bid to end a violent crackdown on demonstrators, freezing assets of organizations affiliated with the government. At least 3,000 people have been killed in the seven-month uprising against President Bashar Assad, according to the United Nations.

Syrian Arab Airlines, the country’s biggest carrier, agreed Wednesday to buy three new planes from Tupolev as Western sanctions block the state-owned company’s access to maintenance and renewal services for its fleet. Syrianair, as the company is known, signed a letter of intent to take delivery of the Tu-204SMs from Tupolev, part of state-owned United Aircraft Corporation, starting in 2013. The airline will later set up a maintenance center for the jets at its headquarters in Damascus, it said on its web site.

An Alawite girl, Abeer Safi, was killed today by the regime during an anti-government protest. The growing presence of young Alawites in protests and on Facebook opposing the regime must be a troubling sign for the government.

An interview with Syrian opposition activist Louay Hussein

by Camille Otrakji for Syria Comment

Louay Hussein is a Syrian writer and a long time opposition activist. He was first arrested in 1984 while finishing his fourth year of philosophy studies at Damascus University. He was released from jail in 1991. Earlier this year he successfully organized the first opposition conference to be held in Damascus (Samiramis conference).

Q1. You recently launched “Building the Syrian State” political current (???? ???? ?????? ???????) and announced a possible conference for founding members early next month. What are your priorities and objectives for the near future?

Louay: Our priority is to find a made-in-Syria solution that can help us prevent more bloodshed in Syria and can plan for the removal of the oppressive regime in a peaceful and secure way.  We think that such a solution can be reached through the establishment of a wide coalition of opposition forces that agree to adopt a national working plan that we proposed among other documents. If we succeed in establishing such a coalition, it would be possible for us to work next on aligning Syrian public opinion with our efforts to confront the regime.

Q2. What are your current’s views of the “Coordination Committee” (mostly made of internal Syrian opposition figures) and the “Syrian National Council” SNC (external opposition)? How do you interpret the difficulties that prevented the Coordination Committee from holding a conference in Paris days ago? Was there a French government bias in favor of the National Council and against the Coordination Committee?  If yes, then why? Do you suspect that the French were acting on a request by the National Council to silence the Coordination Committee?

Louay Hussein: Our current has favorable views of all parties, coalitions or forces that already exist or are being formed, as long as they seek to protect national unity and reject outside military intervention and reject militarization of the uprising. This includes the Coordination Committee. I do not have any specific information that can explain the obstruction of the Coordination Committee’s conference in Paris but I tend to suspect an attempt by some influential foreign elements to establish a single Syrian opposition body, the National Council in this case. Uniting the opposition at any cost is a westernstrategy. Their support for the National Council in every possible way is expected, especially after the Council’s wobbly start.

Q3. Many observers believe that after seven months it is safe to conclude that protests will continue and the regime will not fall anytime soon. What are your expectations for the coming year? If you expect more bloodshed, what can the Syrian people expect next from both the regime and the opposition if they both care to try to stop the bloodshed? Do you expect the leaders in the regime and the opposition to continue to resist any compromise and to trade accusations of responsibility for the violence?

Louay Hussein:  I believe there are two reasons why demonstrations will significantly diminish; First, the violent oppression by the authorities recently and second, the increase in the number of armed operations by groups opposed to the authorities such as “The Free Syrian Army”. This is why I expect more bloodshed in Syria. Moreover, I worry that if we fail to reach a homegrown settlement of the conflict very quickly, we will clearly witness different aspects of a civil war in the near future.  Facing this reality and looking back at the past seven months I am afraid both the regime and the leadership of the opposition did not prove at all they are up to their responsibilities at the national level. This is why each of them is throwing the ball to the other’s court and both proved unable to introduce serious and realistic initiatives. I am disappointed at, and I blame the leaders of the opposition who did not dare to try to lead the street instead preferring to proudly act merely as an echo of the voice of the street. Take for example the slogan of “down with the regime”. It was adopted by some of the opposition leaders as if it was a full political platform. We heard them repeat it day and night but without telling us how they will bring down the regime and what is the mechanism for bringing it down and how will they deal with the regime’s security and military establishments and how they will deal with the regime’s supporters. Especially after events proved that bringing down the regime simply through people power is not an easy, or even possible, task within the existing balance of power.

Q4. Regime supporters are quick to point out that the most enthusiastic supporters of regime change in Syria are Syria’s traditional enemies, Israel and the United States in addition to some of the least democratic and most sectarian Arab countries. Do you believe that these forces are genuinely concerned about the Syrian people or are they in fact more interested in the weaker Syria they expect to emerge after the protests?

Louay Hussein: Every country prefers weaker other countries in order to enjoy more power at all levels. This assumption is not at the foundation of the conflict in Syria. All the states you mentioned in your question need stability in Syria. This is the reason why they are trying to provide alternatives to the regime in case the street managed to shake the regime until it disintegrated and fell. Those countries worry that by then a security mess will hurt their national interests.

Q5. Reforms in other “Arab Spring” countries (Tunisia, Egypt and even Libya) are taking much longer to implement than previously anticipated. Why is it that you believe President Assad should be able to implement reforms faster and better than they are being implemented in other “Arab Spring” countries.

Louay Hussein: Syria was a much easier case. President Assad did not lead for too long and he was not rejected by his people. Therefore, he could have achieved progress in reforms that please everyone, with considerable ease. Reforms could have been implemented quite fast because Syria was stable and its political opposition that existed was not interested in confronting the authority. It was more interested in applying pressure on it for its failure to implement political reforms

The original interview was conducted in Arabic:

1)
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???????? ??????? ??? ?? ????? ?? ???? ??????? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ???? ??????. ?????? ?? ??? ??? ???? ???? ?? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ???? ??? ??? ???????? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ??? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? ??? ???????. ??? ??????? ????? ??? ??? ???????? ???? ???????? ????? ??? ????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ?????? ??????

2)
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?? ?? ?????? ???????? ???? ???? ???? ??????? ?????? ???? ??????? ?????????? ?? ?????? ?? ?????? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?? ??? ??????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ??? ??????? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ???????? ????? ???? ??????? ???????

???? ?????? ???????? ??? ???? ????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ???????? ???????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??? ???? ?????????? ????? ????? ????? ????? ????? ????????? ?? ???????. ???? ?????? ???? ???? ??????? ??????.??? ???? ??? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ?????. ??? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????? ???????? ???????? ?? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ?????????? ??? ?? ??? ?????? ?????? ??????. ????? ????? ???????? ??? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ???????? ?? ??????? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ??? ?? ??? ????? ????? ??? ????

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??? ?????? ?? ????????? ??? ? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ?? ????????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ?????: ?? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ????? ???????? ?? ??? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????? ???????, ???? ???????? ???????? ???????? ?? ?????? ??? ????????? ?? ??? ????? ???? ???? ?? ??????
?? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ????????? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ? ????? ????????? ??? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ????? ??????

????? ?? ????????? ???? ????? ???? ??????: ?????? ????? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ??? ????????. ???????? ????? ??? ???????? ??????? ?? ??? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ????. ???????? ??? ??? ????? ?????? ????? ?????? ???????. ?? ???? ?? ???? ???? ???? ?? ?? ????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ???? ?????? ???????. ????? ??? ??????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ???????? ???? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?? ???? ?????? ??????? ??? ???? ????????? ???????? ???? ??? ?? ??? ???? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ???????? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ???????. ????? ????? ??? ??? ?????? ???????? ???? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ??? ??? ?????? ??? ???. ????? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ??? ?????? ???????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ???? ?? ??? ?? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????????? ???? ??????? ?? ????????. ???? ??? ?? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ?? ??? ??????? ??? ?????? ????? ???????.

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???? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ??????? ?????? ?? ???? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ?? ????? ????? ?????????? ???????? ? ???????? ??????? ???????? ??? ??? ??????? ?? ?????? ?????? ???????? ????? ?? ??? ???????  ?????? ?  ?????? ???????????: ?? ????? ?? ???? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ???????? ?? ?? ????? ???? ????? ?? ???? ????? ???? ?????? ????? ???????????

???? ????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ???? ????? ????? ??? ??? ???? ???????. ??? ??? ??????? ???? ??????? ??????? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ?? ?????. ????? ????? ???? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ???????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ????? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ??? ???? ?????? ?? ?? ?????? ????? ????? ??????. ?? ???? ??? ????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ??? ????????.

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Homs: The Capital of Syrian Uprising

By a Syrian expat originally from Homs for Syria Comment
Posted by Camille Otrakji.

This article is an attempt to provide a brief synopsis of the history and the socio-economic fabric of the city. This will help explain why Homs is the center of anti-government demonstrations and potentially the future site of intense sectarian violence.

Homs before the 1900s
Homs was a small city with less than 50,000 inhabitants (Now around 1 million) . The city was largely homogenous (Sunni Muslim) albeit having an affluent Christian minority (<10%). The city and its neighboring countryside was under the Ottoman rule which was facilitated by cooperation between the city’s religious and commercial elite on one hand, and Ottoman governors and garrisons (mostly Turkmen and in general foreign to the city) as well as countryside Aghas and their men (The Dandachies in Talkalakh and the Sweidans in Hesyieh) on the other hand. Intermarriages between the two groups helped diminish conflict between them.

Homs from the Arab Revolt through independence
Upon the great Arab Revolt, the city’s local and traditional leadership broke away from the Ottoman patronage. Families that once represented religious leaderships (most notably the Atassis) allied themselves with Sharif Hussien and recruited the tribal strong men of Dandachi and Bani Khalid to their cause. The same commercial and religious elite thrived. Affluence was largely a family business while social mobility was achieved though public office and/or marriage among landowning, religious and commercial families. This continued to be the case through the French Mandate and early independence years and the city social and power makeup remained unchanged. Economically, the city was largely a market to the surrounding countryside.

The Arab Socialist era and the new social fabric
The creation of the Syrian army by the French, which was made up mostly by minorities, the advancement of Arab socialist ideologies, and the creation and expansion of government bureaucracy and civil servant class, helped weaken the traditional social order in the city. An alliance was forged between low-level civil servants, army officers, and countryside peasantry (from all sects), all under the umbrella of socialism, helped create a hybrid socialist-military rule.

People from the countryside flooded the city creating new neighborhoods. The Alawis occupied the south-eastern quarters. Christian newcomers occupied large parts of the old city and the Sunni settled west, north, and east of the old city walls. Civil service and access to education became the new vehicle to social mobility (for example a teacher’s salary in the 60s-70s was enough for a family to live a middle class life).

Sectarian Tensions
Things changed in the late 70s aspower became more and more concentrated in the hands of minority army officers and it became evident that minorities and Baathists were favored for government jobs. This and other factors of regional politics created sectarian tensions in the country and the city and the clashes between the Mulsim Brothers and the government were largely sectarian and very violent.

The defeat of the Muslim brotherhood in 1982 in Hamah, and the government’s retaliatory policies that followed, created a sense of defeat in the Sunni community. Also, the economic collapse 1980s facilitated the return of traditional social dynamics in the community: commerce, marriage, and working abroad (mostly in the Persian Gulf States) became the vehicle for social mobility in that community. The traditional Sunni community was punished and was no longer an active participant in the state.

Homs in the last 20 years
Sunnis from the countryside who had occupied the vast poor neighborhoods east and north of the city integrated well into Homsi society. They quickly adopted the city’s social norms and developed antipathy towards the state for the same reasons that the indigenous inhabitants of the city’s core had. This created a unified “Sunni” identity across all city neighborhoods whether rich or poor, religious or not.

Alawites on the other hand didn’t integrate as well. They retained their distinct accent and their links to their home villages, and are active participants in the hated government agencies (Army, Mukhabarat, and civil service).

Feelings of deep mistrust characterize the relationship between the Sunni and Alawi communities.

The risk of Civil War
Unlike the events with the Muslim Brotherhood in the 80s, the demonstrations in Homs are not fueled by religious hatred or Salafi extremism; instead it’s fueled by the desire for a more political participation in the country and equal opportunity. All said, the brutal crackdown on demonstrators is intensifying resent in the Sunni community and its putting it at odds with the Alawi community that largely supports the regime. As a result, Homs is the likely candidate for neighborhood-to-neighborhood civil war similar to that of Lebanon’s civil war.

The Arab Spring & the decay of secular state in Syria

By Morpheus, a Damascus based architect
For Syria Comment – posted by Camille

Since its beginning, the Arab Spring phenomenon dominated the waves of local & international media and focused discussions about the current state of affairs in the Arab world on two major principles; freedom & regime change. However, this debate over these principles in Syria overshadowed the systematic destruction of secular state using vague political terms, conflicting regime change with state destruction and applying a divisive discourse that can only lead to separation instead of integration.

Syria today is suffering mainly from the absence of a “silent majority” from its political debates. Currently, the representation of the Syrian population is reduced to ineffective pro-government speakers and external chaotic opposition mostly represented by ambiguous characters with little substance to offer. This, of course, comes as no surprise in a country where true politics disappeared under one party ruling for four decades. However, this growing opposition abroad presents another concern as it aims to de-root all aspects of modern governing established in the country since its independence. An important aspect of the Syrian State was its secular face, rarely exposed and discussed but very evident and present to prudent observers. Since its early days, the Syrian state did not hide its indifference to religion and all its national figures agreed amongst themselves upon this unspoken truth. Their mixture was unique and effective. Muslims & Christians as well as Arabs & non Arabs all contributed to the construction of a modern state. The danger, nowadays, threatens the solid beliefs of the founding fathers, if I may use this expression, by debating the unspoken truth, highlighting ethnic & religious discrepancies and pushing the interest of one group to the detriment of national interest. Thus, the vague political terms used and consumed by media debates like freedom and change can only be used to describe and specify a general state of thinking without actual detailing of what it entails if put to the test in everyday governance. It is important to highlight as well that a serious attempt for change started years ago on all different levels of government to open up the discourse and diagnose the requested modifications to a closed system. This is by no means a gift from the regime but a committed effort from the “Silent Majority”.

This process of change from within was not only triggered by political needs but by economic, cultural and social necessities. Syria today is very different from the state it was in 1963 when the ruling party took power. The Syrian population growth rate is one of the highest in the world. Exposure to free market policies changed economic behavior fundamentally. Avant-gardists co-exist with traditionalists in every domain. More than ever, the need for change is inevitable. Even people in the highest echelons of power knew it was coming. This, nevertheless, was meant to improve the outcome of the state not to dismantle it. Thus, the “Silent Majority” was taken aback by the unexplainable uprising in most Syrian cities. It was evident that occurring changes were much less than expected. The outcome of it was a strange one; on one hand the government took the steering wheel and started a fast track process of introducing numerous laws & regulations to convince everyone it was doing its due diligence while the opposition fought back by stripping the government of its right to expedite the process of change. In reality, the former excluded the active majority from political reform in a way, while the latter refused the whole concept of reform all together leaving no room for discussion and taking the matter to the streets and the masses. Nothing is far more dangerous than leaving crucial decisions with impact for years to come to angry protestors and ineffective bodies of governance. This condition is threatening the collective belief in the Syrian state capability of existence and survival. A regime change is needed in a manner that is not threatening to integration and unity of national institutions. This type of change has to be inclusive not exclusive and based on discourse not violence and erratic attempts. The issues at stake are far more divisive than immediate gains. Furthermore, it is imperative to keep in mind that the structure of current institutions is not a result of the regime in power. Some of these institutions are older than the Syrian Republic itself. Consequently, a consensus has to be reached at large before diving into any productive restructuring.

Increasingly so, the language used by regime opponents is sending shock waves through the nation’s nerve system. Since the independence, the political views differed from one another by association to the socialist approach to governance or to the capitalist approach. They all agreed on national unity and diversity but debated how to solve social & economic affairs. Today, the political scene drafts a totally different landscape focusing on ethnic, religious and social divisions. This comes as a reflection of modern politics in the Middle East as a whole where politics no longer relate to progressive thinking but to backward thinking and the political arena is divided between pragmatists and Islamists. A consequence of the end of the Cold War era, the Middle East failed to produce any inspiring political thinking for decades and fall hostage to fundamentalists. Syria is no exception. In the 80’s the government responded with tremendous force to the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. Nevertheless, the past three decades witnessed a softer approach. Religious diversity was celebrated widely in the country and all Syrians felt a sense of reassurance in the ability to express religious beliefs. But how good is too good? Today, when secular state is decided to be more inclusive it is faced with violent disapproval and denial of its right to lead based on sectarian thinking. This is not only increasing tension between government & protestors but also is extending a greater feeling of mistrust amongst different sects in society. All of a sudden, the debate shifted from replacing old socialism with more progressive socially conscious capitalism to replacing army boots with Islamic turbans.

In result, it is astonishing how the “Silent Majority” failed so far to seize its right to preserve the important achievements of the Syrian state since its birth in 1947 and to enter the political debate strongly and effectively using peaceful means and civic action. The end as described by protestors is aimed towards freedom. But it is far more important to exercise a civil and united discourse in order to agree on what type of system we are seeking to protect and cherish common freedoms. Also, it is crucial not to lose sight of what was achieved so far regardless of whether it was done incorrectly. To have something to work with and improve is far better than to turn the page and start from scratch especially in a time where the clock is ticking away…

Damascus, Oct 8th, 2011

Posted by Alex.

On September 19th, Dr. Landis announced that he was relinquishing the day to day oversight of Syria Comment to finish his book.  At the time, I had promised Dr. Landis that I will do my best to take over the task in partnership with Alex.

Regrettably, the 22-day trial period ended today.  I have decided to step down from Syria Comment. As many regular readers know, I have been a member of this family for years. I have made numerous very good friends here. This forum has been a meeting place for so many passionate, bright and well informed commentators.

Syrian politics was largely boring and predictable for years. This is no more.  Everything Syrian changed since March of this year.  It is amazing to witness how seven months have made a political expert out of  every Syrian.  To be sure, the risks and the stakes are very high going forward. This has made nearly every man, woman and child mesmerized with politics. I think this is a positive trend.

Like most of you, Syrian affairs seem to have consumed my life recently.  This morning, I decided that I needed a break from it all. How successful I will be is an open question. I have made similar pledges in the past and failed like every drug addict.

For now, I say my goodbyes.  Undoubtedly, this country faces a challenging future.  My wish is that Syria’s mosaic of sects and religions learn to live with each other.  Our energies must start with improving the education of our future generations so that we can compete in the global market place and offer our youth a chance.  I can go on and on, but let me stop here.

Salamat to all.

Ehsani

As Syria approaches the seven month anniversary of its conflict, the following is becoming clear:

1-    The Syrian military and internal security apparatus is a cohesive group that seems unlikely to disintegrate anytime soon. There is no doubt that some desertions have taken place.  But these have been too sporadic to make a noticeable rupture in the army’s control over the Syrian territory.

2-    The defining moment in the past seven months came on the eve of Ramadan.  Hama was steadily moving away from central control.  The sensitivities of moving the army into Hama on that day were not lost to Damascus. In the end, the risk of waiting was deemed too high. Leaving Hama the way it was for the whole month of Ramadan would have made any attempt to retake the city that much harder to accomplish thereafter.  No one in the Syrian leadership wanted to have another Benghazi in Syria. This is why the tanks moved into Daraa earlier and Rastan just recently.  Damascus will not allow any territory to fall outside of its control.

3-    Armed with a strong and cohesive army that has been able to exert full territorial control over the whole country, the opposition must by now be aware that defeating this regime militarily is unlikely to happen without foreign help.  Syria is not Tunisia or Egypt. The popular uprising that was going to sweep away the Syrian regime was an attractive option in theory. Members of the Syrian opposition saw it as the way forward. In practice, however, it is yet to yield any discernible result.

4-    This leaves foreign help.  Presumably, this  can mean one of three things:

•  Foreign Boots on the ground.
•  No Fly-Zone.
•  Arming internal groups with the hope toppling the regime militarily.

The latter option is precisely why the Syrian leadership has made sure that no territory falls outside its control.  Such an area would simply act as a base and an address for foreign arm shipments and would constitute a Syrian Bhangazi.  Any foreign shipments that have come in so far seem to have been sporadic and light enough not to pose any legitimate strategic risk to the country’s armed forces. Indeed, the Syrian army and security forces are so superior in numbers and firepower that it seems almost impossible for this strategy to ultimately work.  The opposition is unlikely to defeat the army regardless of how many arms it can unilaterally source from outside.

In an exclusive report entitled – War only option to topple Syrian leader, Colonel Riad al-As’aad seems to call for the international community to provide army rebels with weapons and enforce a no-fly zone. He concludes by saying:

“If they don’t give it to us, we will fight with our nails until the regime is toppled. I tell Bashar al-Assad, the people are stronger than you.”

The fact is that the Colonel realizes that arming the rebels from outside needs both a Syrian address (Rastan or jabal al zawye) AND a No-Fly zone.

But what is a No-Fly zone?  The concept seems a little confusing in the sense that the Syrian air force has not exactly been busy fighting the insurgents with chemical weapons (Iraq) or the like.  One can think of this concept as the prelude or the poor cousin of the first option which involves sending foreign boots on the ground.  The No-Fly zone, should it happen, would presumably involve NATO targeting and degrading Syria’s extensive surface to air anti aircraft missiles.

Saddam survived everything that was thrown at him, including a No-Fly zone, for years till the foreign boots showed up.  Once the latter happened, his regime simply crumbled in days.  While the initial western success was intoxicating, what came after was enough to convince even the most hawkish elements in Washington that a repeat of that experiment in Syria now would be incomprehensible.  The country does not have the financial, political or military stomach for this adventure at the moment.

The newly formed Syrian National Council faces a dilemma when it comes to foreign intervention.  Quite simply, the opposition knows that it is nearly impossible to topple this regime without foreign help. Yet, they also know that inviting foreign military intervention into Syria is political suicide. What you get as a result is a muddled policy response and half-pregnant answers.

To be sure, no foreign intervention has been the consistent party line.  During the latest interview with Aljazeera, Mr. Ghalyoun called for “international observers to help protect civilians”. While that does not sound like direct foreign military intervention, it surely is a prelude to one.  What would happen if a team of international observers (UNIFIL?) were shot at or killed? Would the international community have to send real armed forced to protect the observers next?

The Syrian National Council is likely to keep dancing around this issue and avoid commenting on the subject directly. This is because they are in a catch-22 situation.  As this conflict carries forward, the time will come when the SNC will have to face that fork in the road and convincingly describe how it intends to bring the slogan of ”Isqat al Nizam” into reality on the ground.

[end of commentary]

Kurdish opponent of Assad shot dead – Financial Times

Though the exact circumstances surrounding Mr Tammo’s death are unknown, suspicion immediately fell on the regime, and could widen the opposition to Mr Assad’s rule. Protests were said to have broken out in Kurdish areas on Friday night.

“They’re very, very angry,” said Massoud Akko, a Kurdish human rights activist and journalist living in Norway. “He was a very good man, very clever, respected by all Syrian people, not just the Kurdish.”

Mr Tammo was spokesman for one of the Syrian Kurds’ 14 illegal political parties, and was in prison until earlier this year. He was also a member of the recently formed Syrian National Council, the umbrella group of the opposition.

Although there have been anti-regime protests in the Kurdish areas, many expected the community to mobilise more fully than it has so far, given that Syria’s Kurdish minority, which forms nearly 10 per cent of the population, is the only group with a history of serious, organised opposition to the Assad government.

The regime has sought to co-opt the Kurds since protests began by offering citizenship to approximately 300,000 who were left stateless by a 1962 census, and there have been rumours that Kurdish politicians are in dialogue with the regime, but these cannot be confirmed. Mr Tammo was reported to have spoken out against some Kurdish politicians, saying they had “contributed to the weakness of the Kurdish opposition”.

According to Mr Akko, the death of Mr Tammo could be a turning point for the Kurdish community’s participation in the uprising.

“If the death doesn’t take them to the streets, I will be sure there is negotiation between the regime and other Kurdish parties,” said Mr Akko.

Riad Seif, another leading opposition figure, was beaten by gunmen outside a mosque in the Damascus suburb of Midan on Friday, according to opposition activists, and was rushed to hospital.

The US state department described Mr Tammo’s death, together with the beating of Mr Seif as “a clear escalation of regime tactics”.

The UN said earlier this week that 2,900 people had been killed in the regime’s response to protests, which broke out in March. UN experts said on Friday that 187 of those killed were children.

US calls on Assad to “step down now” – AFP

WASHINGTON — The White House on Friday called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to “step down now,” warning he was taking his country down a “very dangerous path.”

In a statement, spokesman Jay Carney condemned the killing of Kurdish opposition leader Meshaal Tamo as well as the beating of a prominent Syrian activist, saying it showed “again that the Assad regime’s promises for dialogue and reform are hollow.”

“The United States strongly rejects violence directed against peaceful oppositionists wherever it occurs, and stands in solidarity with the courageous people of Syria who deserve their universal rights,” Carney said.

“Today’s attacks demonstrate the Syrian regime’s latest attempts to shut down peaceful opposition inside Syria. President Assad must step down now before taking his country further down this very dangerous path.”

Tamo, 53, a member of the newly formed Syrian National Council (SNC) opposition grouping, was killed when four masked gunmen stormed his house in Qamishli in the north and opened fire.

His son and another fellow activist in the Kurdish Future Party were wounded, activists said. Kurds are a minority ethnic group in Syria.

Former MP Riad Seif, meanwhile, was also attacked and beaten in the street.

The US State Department earlier charged that the Assad regime was escalating its tactics against the opposition with bold, daylight attacks on its leaders.

“This is a clear escalation of regime tactics,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters, referring to reports of Tamo’s murder.

In the past months, she said: “We’ve obviously had a number of opposition folks arrested. We have had reports of torture, beatings, etc, but not on the streets in broad daylight.

The tactic is “clearly designed to intimidate others,” Nuland said.

Nuland meanwhile welcomed reported remarks from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who told Assad on Friday to either reform or resign.

“That is very positive,” she said, adding that she had not seen the statement.

“But as we have said, we want to see more countries join us not only in increasing the political and rhetorical pressure on the regime, but also tightening the economic noose,” Nuland said.

“And there are more steps that can be taken by countries like Russia to up the pressure on Assad,” she said.

Robert Ford, making a difference in Syria – David Ignatius (W.Post)

If you’re wondering what diplomats can do in an era of pulverizing military force and instantaneous communications, consider the case of Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria. He has been meeting with the Syrian opposition around the country, risking his neck — and in the process infuriating the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Ford is an example of the free-form diplomacy the United States will need as it pulls back its troops from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He’s projecting American power quietly — through counseling the protesters and networking — rather than trying to wrap the opposition in the American flag, which would be the kiss of death for them.

I spoke with Ford last week by telephone, which is, at the moment, unfortunately the only way that most U.S. journalists can talk to him. He outlined the basic advice he has offered in meetings with opposition leaders, which is to remain peaceful and resist the slide toward sectarian violence.

Ford summarizes his message this way: “Don’t be violent. That’s crucial. If you do that, you’re playing into the hands of the government.”

And yet, as Ford notes, sectarian killing “is certainly on the upswing” in Syria. It’s a frightening cycle of attack and retaliation, reminiscent of the Sunni-vs.-Shiite mayhem that enveloped Iraq in 2006. The blood feud here is between Syria’s Sunni majority and the Alawite minority that has ruled since Assad’s father took power in 1970.

Wherever he goes, Ford asks practical questions — pressing the activists about incentives for Syrian business or about reforming the government budget. He counsels the embattled protesters against military action — which would only bring on a vicious civil war. He thinks time works against Assad, if protesters can avoid the trap of sectarian conflict.

It’s a narrow ledge that Ford is walking. But it’s good to see an American diplomat in the lead for a change, instead of the U.S. military.

The U.S. and the E.U. are still smarting from last night’s veto decision at the U.N.

The British Foreign Secretary had this to say at his party’s conference today:

“The decision of Russia and China to veto this resolution, and to side with a brutal regime rather than with the people of Syria, is deeply mistaken and regrettable. We will redouble our efforts to work with other nations to increase the pressure on the regime wherever we can, and we assure the people of Syria that they will not be forgotten”.

The German foreign minister issued this statement from Berlin:

“Germany will continue to push, both internationally and especially within the European Union, for a clear position and pressure on the Syrian regime.”

The Obama administration continued to admonish both Russia and China by saying that countries have to take responsibility for the votes on the council as well as any implications such votes may have on the ground.

Using his spokesman, the U.N. Secretary General also weighed in on the subject this way:

“The secretary general regrets that the UN Security Council has not been able to agree and he hopes that the council will overcome the division and find a collective way to address the situation,” UN spokesman Martin Nesirky said.

“He believes we have a moral obligation to prevent further bloodshed and help the people of Syria out of this crisis,” Nesirky said.

Countries that abstained from last night’s votes also had to hear this today:

“By abstaining, [Brazil, India, and South Africa] have not only failed the Syrian people, but [have] also failed to offer a credible alternative to end the bloodshed,” says Philippe Bolopion, UN director of Human Rights Watch in New York. “This vote erodes their credibility in the global arena and might come to define their tenure in the Security Council and undermine their claim to permanent membership.”

Predictably, the Syrian government “highly appreciated” the veto which “sent a message of trust from the Security Council to the people of the world in whose eyes international organizations have turned into tools of colonial hegemony for decades”.

Are new EU sanction on the way?

Having used and amended its sanctions against Syria seven times, it seems that the E.U. is preparing for number eight.

According to the Dow Jones newswires, EU diplomats said that there is a broad consensus among European Union member states in favor of adding Syria’s central bank to its sanctions list and the EU is also set to extend sanctions on close to 30 Iranians over human-rights abuses in that country.

The E.U. has already made the decision to ban the exporting of bank notes and Coins to Syria’s central bank. The new measure, if approved, would freeze any European-based Central-bank assets and could make it harder for Syria to get its hands on Foreign currency.

Back in August, the governor of the Syrian Central Bank said that US sanctions h?? “forced Syria to ?t?? all transactions ?n US dollars, ?n? th? country h?? turned completely t? euro deals.” This came after ?n executive order the week before ordered th? freezing ?f ?ll Syrian state assets ?n th? United States ?n? forbade investment ?n? exports t? th? country.

Since then, the Syrian commercial banks have held their mandatory reserves with the Central bank in Euros. If the E.U. sanctions the Syrian Central Bank, it would mean that the local commercial banks will not be able to hold their mandatory reserves in Euros either. Moreover, they will not be able to do any buying or selling of both Euros and Dollars from the Central Bank. It is worth noting that the Syrian Central Bank has not sold any foreign exchange to the local Banking system over the past few days. Following the lifting of the import suspension, importers can source foreign currency using their private accounts overseas or by going to the local black market. The current rate in this market is still stable at SYP 51.50 or so. It is unclear where the rate will settle in the weeks ahead once importers renew their appetite to stock up.

Bible Manuscripts From Damascus Go On Rare Display

JERUSALEM (AP) — Precious Bible manuscripts originating in the Jewish community of Damascus, Syria, went on display for several hours Wednesday, offering a rare glimpse at a collection that includes books spirited to Israel in clandestine operations before the ancient community disappeared at the end of the 20th century.

The books are held at Israel’s national library. Because of security and conservation concerns, most of the collection has been on display just once before, also for just a few hours, more than a decade ago.

The collection includes 11 volumes. Three, including the oldest and most important book in the collection, were brought out of the library’s vaults and displayed during a symposium Wednesday evening.

Ranging from 700 to 1,000 years old and written in the Middle East and Europe, the parchment manuscripts include meticulous Hebrew penmanship and illustrations in ink and gold leaf. Some boast intricate micrography — decorations made up of thousands of tiny Hebrew letters.

None were written in Damascus, but rather came to be held in synagogues in the city over the centuries. They are known collectively as the Damascus Crowns, “crown” being a Hebrew term sometimes used to describe particularly important and venerable biblical manuscripts.

The Jewish community in Syria’s capital had been there for more than 2,000 years before its members were driven out by government persecution and mob violence linked to the rise of Arab nationalism and the establishment of Israel in 1948. A second ancient community in the country’s business center, Aleppo, met the same fate, as did others across the Arab world.

After nearly three months of negotiations and concessions, the U.S. and its European allies were dealt a blow at the UNSC.  Even after they agreed to a steady watering down of the language in the final text, both Russia and China still vetoed the UN resolution on Syria. This was a repeat of the same double veto by Russia and China back in 2008 against Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe.

This would have been the first legally binding resolution by the UNSC against Syria. The demand was that Syria immediately end violence, allow fundamental rights and freedoms, lift all media restrictions and allow unhindered access for human rights investigators.  The resolution would have allowed the UNSC to review Syria’s implementation of the above demand within 30 days, and “to consider its options, including measures under Article 41 of the Charter of the UN.”

Rather than admitting that this was a slap on the face to the sponsors of this resolution, France said that the veto showed a “disdain for the legitimate interests that have been fought for in Syria by protestors since March”. Susan Rice of the U.S. called the veto an “outrage” that utterly failed the Syrian people.  The British Ambassador also talked about the impact of this veto on the Syrian people saying that there “will be a great disappointment to the people of Syria and the wider region that some members of the council could not show their support for their struggle for basic human rights”.

Ambassador Rice accused Russia and China of wanting to sell arms to the Syrian regime rather than stand with the Syrian people. Russia’s Ambassador did not take too well to the accusations.

This White House thought that they found a winning formula in Libya. The U.S. would use force but only if it had the U.N. Security Council’s imprimatur, and only if it had clear commitments that the UNSC gave its blessing.   Once the Arab League also comes on Board, the road for a military assault is largely baked in the cake.

Mr. Obama had long favored a more multilateral engagement strategy.  The more unilateral attitude of the Bush administration was often criticized by the new team at the White House.  Such a low-key multilateralist strategy makes it easier to convince other states to support the use of military force to protect civilians.

This strategy was best described by Edward Luck, the senior vice president at the International Peace Institute when he said the following of the U.S. engagement in Libya:

“Historian have to look backward at the fact that the United States not being in the vanguard may have been helpful in the sense that it didn’t look like a U.S. effort to dominate Libya and intervene in the Islamic world,” Luck said. “It made it easier for others to get on board.”

While the Obama White House thought that they had a winner in Libya, both Russia and China were adamant that Syria does not become another Libya.  Russia’s opposition of the resolution was because it was “based on a philosophy of confrontation” that contained an ultimatum of sanctions which was against a peaceful settlement of the crisis. China’s Ambassador, on the other hand, said that his country wanted to see speedy reforms but opposed the resolution because “sanctions, or threat of sanctions, do not help the situation in Syria but rather complicates the situation”.

The sponsors of the resolution met the above with disappointment and outrage. Indeed, the U.S. Ambassador was so outraged that she decided to exit the hall once Mr. Jaafari of Syria warmed up and found his stride. Mrs. Rice’s exit coincided with the reminder that the U.S. used its veto 50 times in support of Israel. By this time, the U.S. Diplomat knew that it was time to cut her losses, leave the room and call it a day.