Obama offers new Syria coalition praise but not weapons – LA Times

“We have seen extremist elements insinuate themselves into the opposition, and one of the things that we have to be on guard about — particularly when we start talking about arming opposition figures — is that we’re not indirectly putting arms in the hands of folks who would do Americans harm, or do Israelis harm, or otherwise engage in actions that are detrimental to our national security.

So we’re constantly probing and working on that issue. The more engaged we are, the more we’ll be in a position to make sure that we are encouraging the most moderate, thoughtful elements of the opposition that are committed to inclusion, observance of human rights, and working cooperatively with us over the long term.”

AP Exclusive: Syrian rebels seize base, arms trove
By BEN HUBBARD | Associated Press –

Syrian army soldier prisoners stand near ammunition after Syrian fighters took over the military base in Aleppo, Monday, Nov. 19, 2012. (AP Photo/ Khalil Hamra)
Here is video of the arms

BASE OF THE 46TH REGIMENT, Syria (AP) — After a nearly two-month siege, Syrian rebels overwhelmed a large military base in the north of the country and made off with tanks, armored vehicles and truckloads of munitions that rebel leaders say will give them a boost in the fight against President Bashar Assad’s army.

The rebel capture of the base of the Syrian army’s 46th Regiment is a sharp blow to the government’s efforts to roll back rebels gains and shows a rising level of organization among opposition forces.

More important than the base’s fall, however, are the weapons the rebels found inside.

At a rebel base where the much of the haul was taken after the weekend victory, rebel fighters unloaded half a dozen large trucks piled high with green boxes full of mortars, artillery shells, rockets and rifles taken from the base. Parked nearby were five tanks, two armored vehicles, two rocket launchers and two heavy-caliber artillery cannons.

Around 20 Syrian soldiers captured in the battle were put to work carrying munitions boxes, barefoot and stripped to the waist. Rebels refused to let reporters talk to them or see where they were being held.

The World’s Next Genocide
By SIMON ADAMS – Op-Ed Contributor
New York Times November 15, 2012

AT a recent meeting hosted by the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, Peter W. Galbraith, a former American ambassador who witnessed ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia, made a chilling prediction. “The next genocide in the world,” he said, “will likely be against the Alawites in Syria.”

A few months ago, talk of possible massacres of Alawites, who dominate Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, seemed like pro-regime propaganda. Now, it is a real possibility.

For more than a year, Mr. Assad’s government has been committing crimes against humanity in Syria. As it fights for survival on the streets of Aleppo and Damascus, the risk of unrestrained reprisals against Mr. Assad’s Alawite sect and Syria’s other religious minorities is growing every day. …..

As the civil war intensifies, Mr. Assad is increasingly outsourcing the dirty work. In Damascus, militia groups within Druse, Christian and Shiite areas are being armed by the government. While the justifications for these militias are “neighborhood self-defense” and the protection of religious sites, the shabiha emerged in a similar way before becoming killing squads for Mr. Assad. And by drawing Christians, Druse, Shiites and Alawites into the civil war on an explicitly sectarian basis, the Syrian government has all but guaranteed that there will be reprisals against these communities if Mr. Assad falls…..

Governments that have publicly committed themselves to helping end Syria’s misery, including the United States, must immediately do two things to help prevent a violent backlash against Alawites and other minorities. First, they must impress upon the newly united Syrian opposition that support depends on strict adherence to international humanitarian law. Armed groups who advocate fracturing Syria along sectarian or regional lines should be denied funds; there should be absolutely no aid for rebel groups who target Alawites and other minorities for reprisals or who commit war crimes….

Der Spiegel: Thirst for Revenge Syrian Rebels Have Lost Their Innocence
2012-11-20

By Christoph Reuter The regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad has perpetrated brutal attacks on both rebel fighters and civilians alike. Lately, though, the spotlight of world attention has been on alleged atrocities committed by those attempting …

Islamist rebels challenge National Coalition
November 20, 2012
By Marlin Dick, The Daily Star

BEIRUT: A group of Islamist rebel factions in Aleppo has emphatically denounced the Syrian National Coalition and vowed to establish an Islamic state in Syria, highlighting the newly formed body’s struggle to shore up the ranks of the armed opposition.

But while the Islamist declaration generated vocal outrage by opposition activists and was at odds with rebels fighting under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, the National Coalition has at best a short honeymoon period in which to score tangible achievements.

A video posted on YouTube late Sunday showed representatives from more than a dozen Islamist rebel factions gathered in Aleppo to express their rejection of “the so-called conspiratorial ‘National Coalition,’” which was established in Doha, Qatar on Nov. 11 by leading opposition groups and figures.

The National Coalition was formed after pressure from Washington, which was disappointed with the performance over the last year by the principal opposition-in-exile bloc, the Syrian National Council.

The fighter who reads the announcement adds that the Islamist rebel factions are “unanimously agreed on establishing a just Islamic state,” as they reject any type of “foreign [-sponsored] coalitions and councils that are imposed on us.”

After the speaker concludes his short statement, one of the fighters standing around a long table adds an impromptu appeal to make the Quran the Constitution of a new Syrian state.

The Aleppo statement is made in the name of the Nusra Front, Tawhid Brigade and a host of other hard-line Islamist groups.

The mainstream FSA, according to Col. Malek al-Kurdi, its Turkey-based deputy commander, rejected the announcement and speculated that it had been made without the knowledge of the groups supposedly represented.

“We are trying, along with many battalions, to achieve the unity of arms against the regime of Bashar Assad,” Kurdi told The Daily Star.

“We do not support any talk of formation of [Islamic] emirates … the people will decide the type of regime” that should be established if the Assad government falls, he continued.

Kurdi dismissed the criticism by the Aleppo Islamists that the National Coalition was a foreign-dominated organization. “We support the National Coalition, which remains incomplete” in terms of its membership, he said, referring to the fact that the FSA had yet to be named to the group’s executive committee because it was involved in its own re-organization drive.

Kurdi said that foreign countries were supporting the attempts to unify the armed opposition into a single command structure, but “this doesn’t mean that the National Coalition is subject to a foreign agenda.”

The Aleppo announcement provoked objections and outrage by wide swathes of pro-uprising Syrians – they might not be enamored of the FSA, but view the brazen declaration of an Islamic state as contradicting the goals of the uprising.

The authenticity of the statement is also in doubt, as spokesmen from at least two of the main Islamist groups, the Tawhid Brigade and the Ahrar al-Sham Battalions, disassociated themselves from the development, in comments to Al-Jazeera television.

The head of the National Coalition, Ahmad Moaz Khatib, told Al-Jazeera he had doubts about how representative the statement was, and said “the street,” and not individual rebel groups, would decide Syria’s political future. ….

UK recognises Syria opposition coalition: London says National Coalition is the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people.

4th Friends of Syria conference to be held in Marrakech, Morocco
2012-11-20

Nov. 20, 2012 (Xinhua) — The 4th Friends of Syria conference will be held in Marrakech in central Morocco on Dec. 12, in an attempt to increase pressure on the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, according to a statement released by Moroccan ministry of foreign affairs on Tuesday.

Syrian rebels’ unnoticed gains

With events in Gaza dominating the news from the Middle East, the long-running conflict in Syria has slid down in the headlines. To the extent that Syria is being reported at all, the main story for several days has been of political wrangling over leadership of the opposition.

This is unfortunate, because important things are happening on the ground – largely unnoticed. Rebel fighters have made significant gains while the regime, despite its continuing ability to flatten whole streets with bombs and shellfire, appears to be making an unsteady retreat.

At the weekend, after a siege of more than a month, rebels overran the 46th Division’s base at Atarib, west of Aleppo city. The base, spread over 12 sq km and said to be the largest in northern Syria, had played a key role in the Assad regime’s defence of Aleppo.

Here is a report from Andrew Simmons of al-Jazeera English:….

This doesn’t mean that the fall of the regime is imminent. But it does mean the regime is now well beyond any point from which it can seriously hope to recover. And, as the rebels capture more and more of its own weapons, its decline is likely to quicken.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is urging the Syrian opposition to unite as France pushes for arming the opposition. Lavrov met with Arab foreign ministers on Wednesday in Saudi Arabia stressing the unification of Syrian opposition groups and calling for the establishment of a team to negotiate with President Bashar al-Assad’s government. Syrian opposition groups formed an umbrella coalition on Sunday in what Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Muqdad criticized as a “declaration of war.” France said it will discuss arms supplies to the Syrian opposition with its European partners. While French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said he was wary of injecting more weapons into the war torn country, the government is looking for a relaxation of a European Union arms embargo which has made it difficult for “defensive arms” to reach opposition fighters.

Tony Karon writes: Syria’s new opposition leadership structure announced in Qatar on Sunday could mark a turning point in the stalemated 20-month old rebellion against the Assad regime. But it could just as easily prove to be another chimerical Western attempt to stand up a friendly regime for an Arab country in transition. That’s because […]

Syria economy: Quick View – Inflation rises to almost 40% in August
2012-11-14,  Nov. 13 (Economist Intelligence Unit)

Statistics has issued data for the consumer price index in August, showing that year-on-year inflation has risen to 39.5%.
Analysis

The rise follows a stabilisation in price growth at 36.1% in June and July, mainly owing to seasonal factors. The average inflation rate for the first eight months of the year is about 30%, according to the official data.

There are significant regional variations, with Aleppo, which first became affected by large-scale violence during the summer of 2012, showing a year-on-year inflation rate of 48.8%, compared with 34.7% in Damascus. The overall August inflation rate corresponds closely with the rise in prices for food and beverages, which has a 42% weighting in the index. The overall food and beverages index rose by 39.5% year on year, and the index in Aleppo climbed by 47%. Prices of bread and flour showed a 70% year-on-year increase in Aleppo, compared with 41% for the country as a whole.

The highest rate of increase in the index is for housing, utilities and fuel, which have a total weighting of 22%. Overall, this sub-index rose by 55% year on year, while in Aleppo it rose by 64%. Prices for fuel in Aleppo rose by 120% year on year. The intensification of the military conflict since August, particularly in Aleppo, is likely to have resulted in further sharp increases in prices. The onset of winter, which will push up demand for scarce fuel, will also be a driver of higher inflation. An additional factor has been the recent fall in the value of the Syrian pound on the black market. After stabilising at around S£70:US$1 between April and October, the rate has slipped in November and is currently quoted at close to S£80:US$1.

Syria’s new opposition coalition still has its old problems
Uniting anti-Assad factions is a real achievement. But a strategy based on western intervention will only prolong Syria’s agony
Patrick Seale, The Guardian, Wed 14 Nov 2012

 The Syrian opposition has a new leadership – the Syrian National Coalition. This umbrella group was formed in Doha on Sunday under pressure from Qatar, its main financial backer, and Turkey – the country that first gave the opposition house room – as well as from the United States and other western countries eager to see President Bashar al-Assad toppled.

….The west cannot pay lip service to the notion of a ceasefire while arming the rebels. What the international community should be doing is imposing a ceasefire on both sides while pressing them to come to the table to negotiate a peaceful transition – even if this means negotiating with Bashar al-Assad himself. To demand his departure as a precondition for talks is unrealistic. As he told Russian television the other day: “I am a Syrian … I will live in Syria and die in Syria.”  All sides should heed the wise advice from Norway’s foreign minister, Jonas Gahr Store: “Dialogue is the strategy of the brave.”

CNN: After the election, a new push on Syria
2012-11-12

(CNN) — The United States and its allies are gearing up for a new push to unify the Syrian opposition and topple President Bashar al-Assad. They are looking to exploit battlefield gains by the rebels and change the trajectory of the conflict before …

 CNN: Syrian government scoffs at new opposition alliance
2012-11-13

(CNN) — Not long after Syrian dissidents united in hopes of gaining global credibility, the Syrian government slammed the new coalition, saying any effort to topple President Bashar al-Assad will be futile. “There is no power in this entire world

Der Spiegel: SPIEGEL Editors’ Note Were Syria Photos Too Baroque To Be Real?

2012-11-13

A SPIEGEL reader recently wrote in to question the veracity of two striking photos the magazine …

Business Insider: Disturbing Fake Videos Are Making The Rounds In Syria
2012-11-13

ALEPPO, Syria — Videos posted to the internet have played a key propaganda role in Syria’s bloody civil war. The footage typically shows brutal attacks, beatings and mass executions. Many clips show rows of dead women and children. But are these …

SYRIA’S INTERNAL WAR TURNS AGAINST THE REGIME
By Jeffrey White – WINEP

As the Assad regime’s increasingly precarious military situation becomes irreversible, outside assistance could help deter Damascus from extreme escalation.

After almost twenty months, Syria’s internal war appears to be approaching a decisive stage. Since early October, rebel forces have been on the offensive in key theaters, while regime forces are stretched thin, increasingly on the defensive, and giving ground. The conflict is evolving from a war of attrition (with the two sides primarily exchanging casualties) to a war of positions, with rebel forces seizing checkpoints, reducing the regime presence in the provinces, interdicting roads, and pressuring key regime strongholds and facilities. Barring a major change in Bashar al-Assad’s approach or massive intervention by Hizballah and Iran, the regime’s military situation will likely continue to deteriorate, perhaps dramatically, in the weeks ahead.

REBEL OPERATIONS

The rebels may not yet have a unified political structure, military command, or national strategy for their war against the regime, but the cumulative effects of their operations are significant and mounting. Furthermore, they hold the military initiative in key areas of the country.

Rebel operations support several major objectives. First, they inflict increasing losses on regime personnel and equipment, including tanks, combat vehicles, and aircraft. Based on daily casualty reporting from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, regime forces averaged nearly 50 personnel killed per day in October, up from 35 in September. And in the first eleven days of November, the average rose to 53. To this toll must be added wounded and captured personnel as well as defectors. Meanwhile, reported clashes between rebel and regime units averaged some 25 per day last month, up from 18 in September; the total October tally of 764 was the highest monthly number since the war began.

Second, the rebels are reducing the regime’s presence and influence (especially in rural areas, but also in major urban areas) by seizing positions or forcing the government to abandon them under pressure. Even in areas where the regime is relatively strong, the rebels are contesting its control

Third, rebel forces are interdicting key lines of communication, especially in Idlib and Aleppo provinces, but also increasingly in Raqqa province. This activity hinders the regime’s ability to move forces to threatened areas and ties them up in protection of LOCs. This in turn contributes to the isolation of regime positions in disputed areas, including artillery fire bases and airfields. While the rebels still have difficulty overrunning major regime positions, they are able to invest and harass them, limiting their utility and forcing the regime to defend them.

Fourth, the rebels are attacking regime positions and facilities to acquire weapons and ammunition. Every position they take provides some of each, sometimes in large quantities. Favorite targets are checkpoints and air defense facilities.

Collectively, rebel operations maintain pressure on the regime on multiple fronts. This may not be part of a grand strategy, but the sum of such operations has a similar effect. Fighting in many places spreads regime forces thin, denying them the ability to concentrate numbers for major offensives.

REGIME STRATEGY AND OPERATIONS….

An Syrian-American writes:

The Free Syrian Army invasion of Ras Al-Ayn is threatening to tear up the ethnic fabric in the Hasakeh Province where Arab Sunni, Christians, and Sunni Kurds lived  peacefully since WWI. Not one FSA fighter is from Ras Al-Ayn. Not one FSA fighter knows the significance of Ras Al-Ayn. It was in Ras Al-Ayn in 1915-16 that the Turkish hordes from the north perfected the art of massacring Christians. It was reported that tens of thousands of Armenians and Syriacs perished in Ras Al-Ayn in 1916. Why
did the FSA fighters have to follow south on the footsteps of the Turkish hordes? Don’t they know that they are telling the world that they are walking in the shadows of 1915? Is there no intelligent officer in the FSA? Who is planning these reckless attacks? Iraq backed out of a $4.2 billion arms deal with Russia, citing possible corruption among Iraqi officials.

From Syria Report

The volume of freight in Tartous Port declined some 27 percent in the first ten months of the year, according to estimates from the Ministry of Transport.

The Syrian Government has issued a tender for the construction of a 350 MW power plant in the coastal area.

Les Alaouites et la crise politique en Syrie
Article publié le 07/03/2012
Par Fabrice Balanche, Les Cles du Moyen-Orient

« Les Alaouites au cercueil et les Chrétiens à Beyrouth », ce slogan scandé dans les manifestations contre le régime de Bachar el-Assad au printemps 2011 fait polémique. Les principaux courants de l’opposition syrienne affirment que les auteurs de ce slogan seraient des membres des services de renseignement, infiltrés dans les manifestations. Selon eux, le but du régime serait de montrer le sectarisme de l’opposition dominé par des salafistes, de faire peur aux minorités et à tous ceux qui souhaitent vivre dans une Syrie laïque. S’agit-il effectivement d’une manipulation du régime ou bien d’un dérapage d’une partie de l’opposition ? La poursuite des événements ces derniers mois a montré le risque d’une guerre civile communautaire, opposant les sunnites aux Alaouites, avec comme victime collatérale les chrétiens, à l’échelle de la ville de Homs. Des dizaines de milliers d’Alaouites et de chrétiens ont abandonné Homs pour se réfugier dans la région côtière, où ils sont dominants, pour échapper aux attaques dont ils étaient quotidiennement victimes. Cela rappelle le mouvement qui eut lieu lors de la révolte des Frères musulmans, entre 1979 et 1982, où des milliers d’Alaouites fuirent Alep pour trouver refuge à Lattaquié…..

GCC, Russia fail to reach agreement on Syria
2012-11-14

Nov. 14, 2012 (Xinhua) — The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Russia failed to reach an agreement regarding the Syrian crisis, Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani said Wednesday night, according to Saudi News Agency. “We have a point of view and our friends in Russia have a
different one, but we agreed to continue our talks,” he said at the end of a strategic dialogue between the GCC and Russia at the level of foreign minister in Riyadh.

Turkey’s Kurdish options
by Hugh Pope*, 11 November 2012

Amid the many challenges thrown up for Turkey by the worsening civil war in Syria is the way it adds fuel to the flames of Ankara’s domestic conflict with insurgents of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Clashes have worsened dramatically in Turkey’s southeast over the past year. A PKK-affiliated group is now dominant in Kurdish areas along northern Syria’s Turkish borders. And Turkey is accusing Syria of resuming its previous support for the banned group, listed as a terrorist organization.

But it is important for Turkey to face the fact that the Syrian connection is merely a symptom of its most important internal problem. A US Patriot missile shield along the Turkey-Syria border, as suggested by the Turkish government this week, is not going to be much help against the PKK. The real test for Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an is to find a way to use the current turmoil to perform a U-turn to escape from the failed PKK/Kurdish policies of his government in the past 18 months.

Dr. Amr al-Azm

The Formation of Syria’s National Coalition: An Assessment and Analysis
By Amr al-Azm
Syria Comment – November 13, 2012

Following talks with a number of people who attended the Doha meeting of November 8-11, this is my assessment of the newly formed “National Coalition for Revolutionary Forces and the Syrian Opposition”. The coming together of the various Syrian opposition factions to finally strike a deal based on a 12 point agreement that would unify them under the umbrella of a newly created coalition body is remarkable considering the obstacles that had to be overcome. It faced intense opposition by some groups, particularly the SNC, which viewed this as a blatant effort to sideline them. Its members have fought for a leading role in the new group.

The original Riad Seif plan called for a council of 51 seats, a joint supreme military council, a judiciary commission and the formation of a provisional government selected from technocrats.

The new National Coalition that emerged in Doha on Monday ended up comprising of 65 seats. The SNC was earmarked 22 seats, the local administration councils were allocated 14 seats (one for each of the provinces in Syria), national figures were allocated initially 8 seats, eventually rising to 10 seats, with the balance (19 seats) to be distributed amongst the various remaining opposition groups and entities. The new coalition eventually managed late on Monday evening to eventually select Moaz Al-Khatib (a cleric and former imam of the Ummayad Mosque in Damascus) and two deputies (with a third still to be named by the Kurds) who are Riad Seif (both prominent dissidents and activists). A third position, which is until now poorly, understood is that of Secretary General, to be occupied by Mustapha Sabagh (head of the Syrian Business men Group). It is rumoured (by Al-Jazira and others) that the position would carry sweeping powers to rival even those of the head of the coalition Moaz Al-Khatib and seen as a principle demand by the Qataris.

Yet there are few details regarding the structure of the new coalition, or the mechanisms for decision-making within it. Nor is there a timeline for achieving its political goals in place. This all points to a clear lack of strategy and planning on the part of those who put this coalition together and those currently leading it. This in turn raises a number of serious challenges that need to be quickly addressed if this coalition is to have a chance of succeeding and not succumb to the same malaise that afflicted its much vaunted predecessor the SNC which is now reviled and delegitimized by many within the opposition and having lost credibility amongst its chief backers in the international community.

Immediate Challenges: The most immediate challenges are going to be those pertaining to strategic planning as well as transparency and legitimacy. These coupled with an ability to produce quick if not immediate tangible results to satisfy high expectations (often unrealistic) by the opposition.

1. The most critical challenge of all is the clear lack of an agenda or any strategy and planning for the next steps by the new coalition and its leadership. This is further exacerbated by the lack of any real political experience at the international and domestic levels by those heading the coalition. This lack of experience and ability to strategize will very quickly affect the organizational and implementation abilities of the coalition. Left unaddressed this could easily lead to major errors, poor performance, mismanagement, dysfunctional decision making processes, ultimately degenerating into stasis and stagnation mirroring what happened to the SNC before them.
2. The Doha meeting was expected to also produce a provisional government of technocrats. This did not happen and there are clearly a lot of reservations both within the SNC and the opposition at large for such a proposal. Yet the ability of the coalition to form such provisional technocrat government (relatively smoothly) will be taken as a critical sign by the international community of the measure of stability and maturity that the Syrian opposition has reached (or not!!!)
3. The actual number of SNC members versus the officially stated figure of 23. Many of the names that appear on the list are known SNC members or belong to entities already represented in the SNC yet have been given independent seats separate from those belonging to the SNC. Whilst the figures fluctuate due to the fact that some may have already resigned from the SNC, it has been suggested that there are at least 10 names that are not listed with the SNC but are still members or represented within it. These include Riad Seif, Najib Ghadban, Mustapha Sabagh to name but a few. This discrepancy has already been noted by many and whilst there has been no major outcry as yet, that is more likely because people want to give the new coalition a chance. At the first sign of trouble however it will represent a soft underbelly on issues of transparency. Also makes for a poor start.
4. The selection of representatives to fill the 14 seats of the Local Administration councils for the provinces is quickly proving to be controversial. Already there are voices being raised from within the provinces in Syria (the real people who are engaged in local administration) that they have not been consulted and that they object to many of those appointed. The selection was always going to be problematic but the lack of a clear and transparent mechanism is a serious problem that will have to be quickly addressed. Already there are accusations (unsubstantiated as yet) of cronyism profiteering and nepotism with the ink not even dry yet.
5. There are prominent opposition entities inside and outside Syria such as the NCC (National Coordination Committee) that have yet to join in addition to any new entities or major defections that may emerge in the future for which no clear mechanisms or strategies for their inclusion appear to have been devised.

Suggested Responses: The following suggestions are made to help address the challenges raised above and are listed in order of priority rather than to reflect the above order of the challenges listed above.

1. The first and most immediate response should be the bringing in of a team of professional consultants to assist and advise the leadership of the new council particularly on setting a agenda and matters strategy and planning. Ideally this team should have been in place to step in the minute the coalition was formed so that they could heat the ground running. Rapid demonstration of results is critical as there is a golden window right now that should be exploited to the maximum. Any errors will be quickly seized upon magnified and amplified. Its not too late yet but this should be a top priority. (you don’t want a re-run of some of those awkward meetings between Secretary Clinton and the SNC).
2. A second priority is the need to quickly form the provisional technocrat government. All efforts should go into encouraging and helping/supporting the formation of this provisional government preferably before the meeting in Marrakesh. Whilst the Arab League and the GCC with perhaps one or two international countries such as France might be will to recognize the new coalition immediately, it is significant that the EU has chosen to be more circumspect opting to wait and see before formally committing. Given the challenges ahead that may be a wise choice.
3. It is also critical that the issues of honesty and transparency highlighted above are addressed as quickly as possible. Whilst it is perfectly understandable that a significant amount of negotiations and horse-trading went on during the preliminary meetings prior to the announcements, it is essential that the outcome appears to be as honest and as transparent as possible. The glaring discrepancies mentioned above should not be discounted just because no one has yet objected aggressively. My suggestion is that the list is amended and relabeled to accurately reflect the true proportions. Those who wish to take up their seats in their new designation in the coalition should publicly resign from the SNC explaining why they have chosen to do so. I think if done quickly it will pass without much fuss. Failure to address this issue promptly will result in serious blowback. I sense a head of steam building already particularly from those on the ground inside in the provinces all you will need is a trigger. Also efforts should be made to encourage and, if need be, pressure the coalition to continue to work to be as inclusive as possible, again with a view to avoiding the errors of its predecessors.

In conclusion, this coalition will be given its honeymoon with the opposition in general and the internal opposition in particular. Its predecessor, the SNC, was given a honeymoon after all. But this will not last for long. The poor performance of the SNC and its causes are well known to most people. It will not take them long to conclude that due to the unfortunate overpopulation of SNC members in the new coalition, the virus that struck down the SNC has been transferred to the new coalition and that it is now stricken with the same malaise much to the embarrassment of all.

*Amr Al Azm is an associate professor of Middle East history and anthropology at Shawnee State University in Ohio.

Ten countries promised recognition of the new “National Coalition for Revolutionary Forces and the Syrian Opposition”, including Saudi, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, US, German, Italy, France.

Mouaz al-Khatib, a former imam at the famous Umayyad mosque in Damascus, was voted as president. Riad Seif, who proposed the initiative to form the new group, and female activist Suhair al-Atassi were chosen as deputies. All three have served time in Syrian prisons and left the country recently. (See BBC’s Excellent profile of Khatib)

It is a big day for the Syrian opposition. Defying naysayers and skeptics, the opposition came together in Doha to follow the outlines of the Riad Seif plan. Opposition members the world over are electrified by the outcome and moving speeches given by the opposition’s new leadership. Assad regime must be worried, as it has survived for 42 years thanks to Syria’s fragmentation.

Now the challenge will be to unite the militias on the ground in Syria behind the new civilian leadership. The role of Qatar, the US, France and Britain have been central in encouraging unity.

Ahmad Moaz Al Khatib Al Hassani – official webpage with speeches given in the past

Video of Ahmad al-Khatib

George Sabra’s Speech on Youtube Very moving. One Syrian friend writes: “This speech made me feel proud to be a Syrian Christian for the first time in a long time.”

Names of the members of the ‘itilaf al-watani

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Gulf States Recognize New Syrian Opposition Group,  2012-11-12

Dubai, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council says it has recognized the new broad-based Syrian opposition group as the legitimate representatives of the Syrian people. Monday’s statement is the first formal recognition for the newly united opposition group that seeks to topple President Bashar Assad. It also could be another step toward opening up greater military aid to the rebels from the Gulf states such as Qatar, which hosted the Syrian opposition meeting.

Reuters – Syria opposition seeks support

His assembly was recognized by the six Sunni Muslim-ruled kingdoms of the Gulf Cooperation Council as “the legitimate representative of the Syrian people”. Washington said it would back it “as it charts a course toward the end of Assad’s bloody rule and the start of the peaceful, just, democratic future”.

The Arab League welcomed the formation of the new body, called on other opposition groups to join it and described it as “a legitimate representative and a primary negotiator”, but fell short of calling it the new authority in Syria.

Syrian opposition agrees deal, chooses preacher as leader
By RANIA EL GAMAL, REUTERS November 12, 2012

DOHA – Syrian opposition leaders struck a hard-won deal on Sunday under intense international pressure to form a broad, new coalition to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad and chose a popular Islamist activist to head the body.

Mouaz al-Khatib, a former imam at the famous Umayyad mosque in Damascus, was voted as president. Riad Seif, who proposed the initiative to form the new group, and female activist Suhair al-Atassi were chosen as deputies.

Delegates, who had struggled for days in the Qatari capital Doha to find the unity their Western and Arab backers have long urged, said the coalition would ensure a voice for religious and ethnic minorities and for the rebels fighting on the ground, who have complained of being overlooked by exiled dissident groups.

U.S. hails creation of new Syrian exile opposition group
By Roy Gutman | McClatchy Newspapers – November 11, 2012

Riad Seif, a Syrian businessman who served in the Syrian Parliament and then spent several terms in jail as a political dissident, was the principal organizer of the new initiative and was elected a deputy president of the new group. Suhair al Atassi, a female anti-Assad activist, was elected as a second vice president.

Jones, the U.S. official, urged the new organization, whose full name is the Syrian National Coalition for the Forces of the Opposition and the Revolution, to set up a technical group with which the international community can “work quickly.” She said she was sending a top level official to London to attend an emergency aid meeting that the British government has called for Friday.

In late October, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton publicly called for the new group to supplant the Syrian National Council, which had been the biggest exile umbrella group. Founded little over a year ago, the SNC has been widely criticized for infighting, lackluster leadership, and a failure to raise sufficient funds or to establish close links with fighting groups inside Syria.

But the new coalition may face some of the same organizational problems that the Syrian National Council did. Syrian emigres do not have well-formed political parties, no surprise after four decades of a police state dictatorship, and the only group that appears able to develop a political strategy is the Muslim Brotherhood.

A second problem is the political constellation under which the new coalition was formed – public pressure from the United States, which is widely criticized by Syrians in and out of the country for giving plenty of advice but having done little to arm the rebels.

The new group also must determine how to incorporate the original Syrian National Council into its operation. The council this past week restructured itself and elected a Christian, George Sabra, as its president. Sabra immediately called for the international community to arm the rebels. “We need arms. We need arms. We need arms,” Sabra said, a distinctly more vigorous presentation than Khatib’s on Sunday night.

The government of Qatar, which hosted both the council’s organizational talks and the discussions that led to the creation of the Syrian National Coalition, invited both groups to stay in Doha until Nov. 25 in order to figure out how to meld their organizations.

Additionally, U.S. officials also may face difficulty rationalizing Khatib’s positions with U.S. policy. Western diplomats said Khatib has been a critic of twin accords agreed to in Cairo last July that Riad Seif was instrumental in drafting that specify that a post-Assad Syria should be secular in nature. Khatib has been critical of the documents because they make no reference to Islamic Shariah law.

Jones’ statement made clear that the U.S. government will not accept changes in the Cairo documents. “The basis of our cooperation remains the National Compact and the Transition plan announced in Cairo last July, as well as respect for human rights protections and equal treatment for all Syrian citizens,” the statement said.

Asked by e-mail whether she had made the statement out of concern for Khatib’s previous positions, Jones’ spokesman said he had no comment.

Syrian opposition groups strike reorganization deal –
By Babak Dehghanpisheh, Wash Post

DOHA, Qatar — Fractious Syrian opposition groups finally struck a deal Sunday to form a new umbrella organization after a week of heated negotiations that were nearly derailed on several occasions.

The new organization, called the National Coalition for Revolutionary Forces and the Syrian Opposition, is intended to act as the single entity that manages the political and military affairs of the opposition and as the conduit for humanitarian and military aid.

At the end of October, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the Syrian National Council, the opposition group formed in August 2011, could no longer claim to be the credible leader of the opposition.

In recent months, the SNC has been criticized as an ineffectual organization out of touch with events on the ground in Syria.

Although many details of the structure of the new coalition and the timeline for achieving its political goals remained largely undefined Sunday, international supporters of the opposition praised the agreement and highlighted what appeared to be a new willingness of activists to work together.

A Syrian opposition conference held in Cairo in July led to fistfights between some activists.

“The regime fears most that the opposition unifies,” said Riyad Hijab, the former Syrian prime minister who defected in August and attended the opposition conference last week. “I know that. I was part of that regime.”

International backers of the opposition hope that a credible leadership for the group could win the support of ordinary Syrians and reduce the influence of extremist groups that are on the rise in the country….

Moaz Khatib, former imam of the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, was named president of the new coalition. Khatib, who appeared at the signing ceremony Sunday night wearing a gray suit rather than clerical robes, is viewed as a religious moderate and is widely respected by opposition members inside and outside Syria. Riad Seif, a longtime activist who led the initiative to start a new coalition, and Suhair Atassi, a prominent female activist, were named vice presidents.

“After long suffering, the multiple national forces have reached a coalition of one front to help our people who are being slaughtered every day on the watch of the world,” Khatib said at the signing ceremony, which was attended by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davatoglu and Qatar’s prime minister, Hamad Bin Jasim al-Thani.

The leaders of the coalition said that gaining international recognition was a top priority and that Khatib may head to Cairo as soon as Monday to pursue recognition from the Arab League.

That would be followed by a push to get recognition from the Friends of Syria group, which includes the United States, followed by a pitch to the United Nations. Many prominent activists said they had received repeated assurances from their foreign backers that they would receive recognition quickly.

By Faisal Baatout (AFP) –

DOHA — …. After four days of marathon talks in Qatar, the Syrian National Council finally signed up to a wider, more representative bloc centred on a government-in-waiting, as demanded by Arab and Western states.

… Reservations in SNC ranks about what many members saw as a move to sideline it had prompted repeated delays in the Doha talks and mounting frustration among other dissident groups and the opposition’s Arab and Western supporters. But after negotiations ran into the early hours of Sunday and resumed in the afternoon, the anti-Assad factions agreed to form a “National Coalition of Forces of the Syrian Revolution and Opposition.”

“We signed a 12-point agreement to establish a coalition,” said leading dissident Riad Seif, who drew up the US-backed reform proposals on which Sunday’s agreement was based. In a copy of the document obtained by AFP, the parties “agree to work for the fall of the regime and of all its symbols and pillars,” and rule out any dialogue with the regime….

They agreed to unify the fighting forces under a supreme military council and to set up a national judicial commission for rebel-held areas….A provisional government would be formed after the coalition gains international recognition, and a transitional government formed after the regime has fallen.

The deal came after the SNC, which had formerly been seen as the main opposition group, heeded Arab and Western pressure to agree to a new structure embracing groups that had been unwilling to join its ranks.

Former prime minister Riad Hijab, who fled to neighbouring Jordan in August in the highest-ranking defection from Assad’s government, hailed the agreement as “an advanced step towards toppling the regime.”

Anti-Assad Syria National Council picks a Christian to be its new leader
By Roy Gutman
McClatchy Newspapers

DOHA, Qatar — Syria’s biggest political opposition bloc Friday elected a Christian, George Sabra, as president, a move Sabra said showed that the Muslim-majority nation will not allow its national uprising to descend into sectarian war.

Sabra, a geography teacher who once wrote for the Arabic version of “Sesame Street,” immediately demanded that the international community provide arms to the rebels so that they can protect Syrian civilians from regime attack.

Western nations, he told reporters after the vote by the Syrian National Council, should “support our right to survival.” He added, “To protect ourselves, we need weapons.”

Tens of thousands of Syrians have died in the uprising, which began as peaceful demonstrations against the government of President Bashar Assad. But it has become a bloody civil war pitting the Syrian army and air force against rebels who despite a lack of heavy weapons have seized large swaths of Syrian countryside and have fought loyalist forces to a standstill in Aleppo, the country’s largest city.

Sabra seemed stunned by his sudden elevation to the council’s top post. “It is an unbelievable moment in my life,” he told reporters. “I promise to become a representative for all the Syrian people.”

It was uncertain whether Sabra’s selection would rehabilitate the Syrian National Council in the eyes of the United States. Last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the U.S. no longer would recognize the council as the primary anti-Assad organization, saying too many of its members had lived in exile for decades and that a new opposition group should include more representation from people fighting inside Syria.

Sabra may help fit that requirement. A longtime member of Syria’s communist party, which renamed itself the Syrian Democratic People’s Party in 2005, Sabra went into exile only in October after serving two months in prison for inciting dissent. Previously, he had served eight years in prison during the regime of Bashar Assad’s father, Hafez Assad.

Sabra credited his election to the intervention of a conservative Islamist from Homs, a Sunni Muslim city that has been the scene of brutal fighting between rebels and pro-Assad forces for most of this year.

Until the Islamist, Wasal al Shamali, who was here representing the Supreme Council for Revolutionary Commands, a collection of rebel-held cities in Syria, spoke on Sabra’s behalf, Sabra wasn’t even a member of the group’s top governing committee, the general secretariat. The Syrian National Council has been criticized because its 41-member secretariat includes no women or Alawites, the religious offshoot of Shiite Islam to which Assad belongs.

Shamali, however, said that Sabra should have his place on the general secretariat.

“I didn’t even know his name,” Sabra told McClatchy. “He was in tears.”

Added Sabra: “After that, who can talk about sectarianism when a Muslim sacrifices his place for a Christian?”

The group later elected Sabra its president, 28-13, over Hisham Marwah, an Islamic legal scholar.

Sabra said his selection should signal to the international community: “Look at Syria. There is no sectarianism inside Syria. All the people here, Muslims, voted for Christians.”

He said the Syria that he and others are fighting for “doesn’t have minorities and majorities. We have citizenship. And as I am a citizen, my colleagues elected me.”

Whether that sentiment translates inside Syria is less clear. In recent weeks, fighting has broken out between Arab rebels and Kurdish militias in Aleppo, and some Sunni Muslims have vowed revenge on Alawites for their support of Assad. The country’s organized Christian religious groups have to date remained firmly allied with the Assad government, saying they fear that the mostly Sunni Muslim rebels won’t protect their rights once Assad is gone. There are also concerns that Islamist militants are playing a growing role in the rebellion.

Concerns of the growing influence of Islamists among the rebels are often cited by U.S. officials for their hesitancy to provide weapons, though many in the opposition argue that the U.S. failure to provide weapons is strengthening the Islamists.

Still to be determined is how Sabra’s election might affect plans, backed by the United States, the Arab League and Qatar, to restructure the opposition.

Under the U.S-backed move, dissident Riad Seif, a successful industrialist from Damascus and former member of the Syrian Parliament, had proposed setting up a new organization, the Syrian National Initiative, with a majority of members not from the Syrian National Council. The Syrian National Initiativewould set up a smaller body of technocrats, who would deal directly with the international community and help funnel humanitarian aid into the country.

Sabra said the SNC would discuss under what conditions it would participate in the new group on Saturday. Sabra said the SNC also would consider an alternative plan that would set up a 300-member assembly primarily of fighters and officials inside Syria to elect a transitional government.

“Our main goal is to unite the opposition to bring down the regime,” Sabra said.

One surprise aspect of the Syrian National Council’s vote Friday was that it was conducted in the open, following a more or less democratic process under which its membership base of 425 voted first for a general secretariat of 41, which then selected the executive committee and the president.

When it came time to vote for the president, the council allowed reporters to witness the process.

Syria’s main opposition bloc elects Christian former teacher as new president
By Associated Press, Published: November 9

DOHA, Qatar — Syria’s main opposition group in exile elected a left-wing veteran dissident born into a Christian family as its new president on Friday, a choice that could help counter Western concerns about possible Islamist influence over the group.

George Sabra, a Communist-turned-social-democrat and former high school teacher who once wrote for the Arabic version of Sesame Street, said his election as head of the Syrian National Council is proof that Syrians are not beholden to sectarianism.

“This day is a victory of the Syrian people to prove all over the world the reality of the Syrians … as young people shouted in the streets, ‘Syrian people are one, one, one,’” he said moments after his victory was announced at a conference in Doha, Qatar. Sabra’s election came on the eve of a crucial decision for the SNC.

Jordan Said to Help Arm Syria Rebels
Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2012
Shipments Are Routed Through Border as Kingdom Steps Up Aid, Opposition Members Say; Amman Denies Connection
By NOUR MALAS And MARGARET COKER

AMMAN, Jordan—Jordan has stepped up its support for neighboring Syria’s political and military opposition, including allowing some light arms to flow across the border, according to Syrian rebels and an Arab official familiar with the operation.

Several shipments of arms—including assault rifles, Russian-designed antitank missiles and ammunition—have been delivered to the border in Jordanian military trucks and then taken into Syria by rebel brigades, according to Syrian rebel fighters. Dozens of other shipments have been smuggled to Syria with the covert support of Jordanian border officials, these people say. Saudi Arabia and Qatar pay for these arms and transport them to Jordan, say rebel fighters based along the Syria-Jordan border and a person involved in arms procurement for the rebels….

The Syrian groups receiving arms from the Jordanian border are now connected to the military councils that have been vetted by Washington and others, say people involved in the transaction.

Some of the light weapons said to be entering Syria through Jordan are destined for the southern Syrian border town of Dera’a, where the popular uprising kicked off last year. Most of the arms, though, were pushed north to the suburbs of Damascus, 60 miles north, in possible preparation for a push on the capital, according to rebel leaders.

I was born here and I will die here

Mr Assad also rejected calls that he seek a safe exit, vowing he would “live and die in Syria”. “I am not a puppet…. I am Syrian and I must live and die in Syria,” Assad, who is facing a nearly 20-month revolt against his rule, told Russian Arabic-language channel Rusiya Al-Yaum.

Prime Minister David Cameron this week floated the idea of granting Mr Assad safe passage from the country, saying it “could be arranged” though he wanted the Syrian leader to face international justice. Mr Assad also warned against a foreign intervention to deal with Syria’s escalating conflict, saying such a move would have “global consequences” and shake regional stability.

Missteps by Rebels Erode Their Support Among Syrians
By Anne Barnard | The New York Times

The Syrian public is increasingly disgusted with the actions of some rebels, including poorly planned missions, senseless destruction, criminal behavior and the coldblooded killing of prisoners.

Post Election, Obama Gambles on Syrian Rebels
Nov 10, 2012- DailyBeast, Michael G

The U.S. has made its boldest move yet on Syria to date, pushing to create a new and better opposition that it can trust—and that it hopes Syrians will too.

In the wake of Barack Obama’s reelection, the United States has decided to take what seasoned observers call its boldest move yet in the conflict in Syria. In Doha this week—the elegant seaside capital of Qatar, the tiny Persian Gulf nation ranked as the world’s wealthiest by Forbes—America, in collaboration with its Qatari ally, is trying to shape a better and more credible opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, following more than a year of infighting between Syria’s notoriously fractious and ineffective resistance.

Wading so directly into Syria’s bloody conflict is fraught with pitfalls for the U.S. government. “It’s a gamble by the State Department to stake such a strong claim in efforts to restructure the opposition,” says Steven Heydemann of the United States Institute for Peace, who has tracked the conflict from the start and who has been part of transition talks with Syrian opposition members. “I think it was a dramatic and risky move. If it works, it will be seen as having been a stroke of diplomatic genius.”

In London, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said talks with rebel military leaders would not involve advice on military tactics or support for their operations. Hague also insisted that Britain would not consider offering weapons to Assad’s opponents.

Syria: leader of rebels warns they might ‘turn into terrorists’
The leader of the Free Syrian Army has called on the outside world to back the rebels before they all “turn into terrorists”.
Syria: leader of rebels warns they might ‘turn into terrorists’
By Richard Spencer, Idlib Province, Syria, and Ruth Sherlock in Doha, 09 Nov 2012

In an interview with The Daily Telegraph in his base in rebel-occupied Syria, Gen. Mustafa al-Sheikh unveiled a new leadership of the Higher Military Council of the FSA, which he heads.

He also said he welcomed David Cameron’s decision to engage with the rebels and even consider organising arms supplies, but he added that war was spreading to surrounding countries, the rebels were fractured and speed was of the essence.

“If there’s no quick decision to support us, we will all turn into terrorists,” he said. “If you apply the pressure that’s been applied to Syria, it will explode in all directions. Terrorism will grow quickly.”

Gen Sheikh was the first of a number of regime army generals to defect to the rebels, joining Col Riad al-Assad at the head of the FSA. The rebels fighting the battles on the ground though are not only divided among themselves but often refuse to recognise his leadership.

Aware that this is a major reason for the reluctance of Western powers to arm them or encourage their Middle Eastern allies to supply rebel forces, on Friday announced a new unified command structure, dividing Syria into five commands each with a defected general at its head.

Assad says only ‘ballot box’ can decide his future
Khaleej Times – 10 November, 2012

Syrian President Bashar Al Assad said his future could only be decided through the ballot box, in an interview with Russian television where he warned the country could face a protracted war.

Assad told Russia Today that whether the president can “stay or leave” is a “popular issue” and “the only way (it) can be done (is) through the ballot boxes”. He denied Syria was in “civil war” but said the conflict with rebels could be “a long-term war” if they continued to receive support from abroad.

Syria in Ruins
Nov 8, 2012 |

While much recent media attention has been focused on Hurricane Sandy and America’s presidential election, Syria’s horrific civil war continues. In some places, it has worsened. Aerial bombardment of civilian neighborhoods, deadly sniper fire, brutal street fighting, assassinations, and summary executions have become the norm in Syria. Cease-fire agreements have collapsed, rebel forces remain disorganized, foreign intervention is still hamstrung, and no path to peace appears to be forming yet. Britain is now reportedly looking for options to circumvent an arms embargo in order to supply rebels with weaponry. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad remains defiant, stating in an interview with Russia Today that he planned “live and die in Syria,” adding, “I am tougher than Gaddafi.” Collected here are images of this bloody conflict from just the past few weeks. [48 photos]

Beware of the Islamist Trap
By Monte Palmer

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

Islamists, judging by the use of the term in the global press, is a simplified way of referring to all Muslim groups seeking some form of Islamic rule in the Middle East.

Like most simplistic expressions, “Islamist,” is laden with hidden traps. The first Islamist trap is believing that all Muslim groups seeking some form of Islamic rule in the Middle East are of one mind and body. They are not. The second Islamist trap is assuming that all groups seeking some form of Islamist rule are inherently hostile to the interests of the United States and its allies. Some are, and some are not. The third Islamist trap is thinking that the US and its allies can stop the Islamist surge now sweeping the Middle East by diplomacy, sanctions, and covert action. The verdict on this supposition has yet to be rendered, but the outlook is not promising. The fourth and most lethal Islamist trap is the belief that force alone can stop the Islamists. Iraq and Afghanistan suggest otherwise.

The dangers of assuming that all Islamists are the same is easily illustrated by a brief review of the four main Sunni Islamist currents competing for control of the Middle East.

Islam lite
The most liberal of the four main Islamist currents is Islam Lite, the sarcastic Turkish nickname for the Justice and Development Party that has ruled Turkey within a secular framework for more than a decade. Islam Lite, the most forward looking of the four Islamic currents, has built Turkey into the world’s seventeenth largest economy, consolidated Turkish democracy, brought Turkey to the doorstep of membership in the European Union, reaffirmed Turkey membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and established Turkey as the dominant Muslim power in the Middle East and beyond.

This is not to deny that the Justice and Development Party does have an Islamic agenda that seeks to create a more Islamic state in Turkey and the Arab world. At the domestic level, the Justice and Development Party has implemented sweeping Islamic reforms that promote veiling (head scarfs), prayer in schools, and other Islamic practices outlawed by Turkey’s revolutionary leaders in the aftermath of World War I. While these Islamic reforms are hardly earth shaking, seculars worry that they are but the first step in the Party’s much deeper Islamic agenda.

At the regional and international levels, the Justice and Development Party’s Islamic agenda includes support for Muslim Brotherhood rule in Egypt, Tunisia, and the Gaza Strip. It also calls for an independent Palestinian state in the Occupied Territories. All have soured Turkey’s relations with Israel, but war between the two former allies is not in the picture.

Partnership with the US and EU is an essential component of Islam Lite. Subservience is not. Some observers accuse Turkey of using Islam to extend its regional influence. The Israelis, by contrast, worry that Turkey will use its military power to extend its Islamic reach.

While neither thought can be discounted, the Islamic Lite model practiced in Turkey does demonstrate that moderate Islamic rule is compatible with democracy and development. Much like Turkey itself, the Justice and Development Party provides an avenue for cooperation and dialogue between the West and Muslim currents throughout the Middle East.

Things, however, may not be as simple as they seem. The Turkish model is deeply rooted in Turkish history and culture and may not be exportable to either the Arab world or the Islamic regions of Central Asia. Also problematic is the weakness of Islamic Lite currents in other areas of the Middle East, All, with rare exceptions lack a firm organizational network and their popular support base pales in comparison to those of the Muslim Brotherhood and even the more extremist Salafis.

The Muslim Brotherhood
Next in the hierarchy of religious extremism comes the Muslim Brotherhood, the world’s largest and most powerful Islamic organization. The Brotherhood now rules in Egypt and Tunisia and exercises profound influence throughout the region. The name may differ from place to place, but they are all Brotherhood offshoots…..

Syria border fighting sends 8,000 fleeing to Turkey
The total of 11,000 who fled the country in 24 hours is one of the largest since the Syrian conflict began, underscoring the crisis for civilians.

Video of TNT bomb being dumped of the back of a helicopter in Syria.

New Jihadi Group, Liwa Al-Mujahideen, Established In Syria
Three video clips pertaining to a new jihadi group in Syria, Liwa Al-Mujahideen, were circulated on YouTube during October 2012. The first was an announcement of the group’s establishment; in the second, the group’s commander explained its raison d’etre; and in the third, the group announced that it had formed the Al-Sahaba Battalion, which would operate in the rural region around Damascus.

L’inversement des rôles entre Damas et Téhéran
BY wassim NASR in (L’Express)  shift of roles between Damascus and Tehran :

Shortly before the Doha effort to put together a Syrian government in exile collapsed, Ambassador Ford, the State Department’s ambassador to the Syrian opposition, inisted to exiles that Syrians must find a “political solution and not a military solution to their problem.” He reportedly told Syrian Opposition leaders that the international community will not create a “no fly zone” over Syria and that it will not support the Free Syrian Army militarily.” “There is no military solution to the Syrian problem,” he insisted. There is only a political solution.” This is what the Engineer Muti’a al-Batiin  ???? ?????? reports on his Face book page.

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Syrian opposition plans fall apart
Syria opposition on Wednesday night scuppered a Western-backed initiative to relaunch the movement with a broad-based and domestically focused leadership after the man lined up as its figurehead withdrew.

Riad Seif withdrew after he lost his seat in the executive council of the main opposition, SNC Photo: Karim Jaafar/AFP
By Ruth Sherlock in Doha, 07 Nov 2012

Key opposition factions with strong followings inside the country pulled out of the plan, which was due to be presented at a conference in Doha, Qatar, today.

Three of the dissident bodies seen as integral to the US-backed initiative said yesterday that they had refused to attend, diplomats and opposition figures told The Daily Telegraph.

“There are too many people against this initiative for it to work now,” said a Western diplomatic source in Doha.

The setback came as Turkey said it was in talks to deploy Nato-controlled Patriot missiles on its border with Syria to ward off the regime’s cross-border threat.

Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, said Nato had a responsibility to protect all member states from external attack, including Turkey.

ABC News: Britain: Obama Victory an Opportunity for Syria
2012-11-07

Britain called on the U.S. and other allies Wednesday to do more to shape the Syrian opposition into a coherent force, saying the re-election of President Barack Obama is an opportunity for the world to take stronger action to end the deadlocked …

David Cameron vows to work with Obama to end Syria violence

Prime minister pledges £14m increase in humanitarian aid after visiting UN refugee camp in Jordan

Britain to organise armed Syrian rebels into efficient fighting force, 07 Nov 2012

Cameron tours Syrian refugee camp, 07 Nov 2012

Brookings: Defeatism Cannot Be Allowed to Overcome Syria |
2012-11-07

“Today our revolution enters its toughest stages and the cruelty of the regime against our people is proven limitless.” For all the issues that the Egyptian revolution has yet to resolve, Egyptians did not pen the above words. Representatives of …

AP

In Jordan, which also borders Syria, visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Riad Hijab, the former Syrian prime minister who defected to Jordan in August. It was a rare high-level contact between Moscow and a Syrian opposition figure.

Lavrov said the talks were meant to get firsthand information from the Syrian opposition on how they view a solution to the civil war. “The idea of the meeting was to get an agreement or a roadmap on how to deal with opposition forces and save the Syrian people,” Lavrov told reporters.

Syrian defector says most bomber pilots grounded, DOHA, Qatar (AP) —

A former Syrian air force general who was also the country’s first astronaut said Tuesday that only about one-third of Syria’s fighter pilots are carrying out the daily bombing raids of rebel strongholds because President Bashar Assad’s regime cannot count on the loyalty of the rest.

http://www.facebook.com/bassam.alkhouri

Bassam Al-Khouri wrote on his Face book:

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After quiet revolt, power struggle looms for Syria’s Kurds
Wed, Nov 07, By Patrick Markey

DERIK, Syria (Reuters) – In the northeast corner of Syria a power struggle is developing over the promise of oil riches in the remote Kurdish region, threatening to drag Kurdish rivals, Arab rebels and Turkey into a messy new front in an already complex civil war.

Quietly and with little of the bloodshed seen elsewhere in Syria’s 19-month popular revolt against President Bashar al-Assad, the Kurdish minority is grabbing the chance to secure self-rule and the rights denied them for decades.

With Syrian forces and Arab rebels entangled in fighting to their west, a Syrian Kurdish party tied to Turkish Kurd separatists has exploited a vacuum to start Kurdish schools, cultural centers, police stations and armed militias.

But the growing influence of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) is concerning not only Turkey, which is worried that border areas will become a foothold for Turkish Kurd PKK rebels, but also Syrian Arab fighters who see the Kurdish militias as a threat.

At the PYD’s office in the Syrian Kurdish town of Derik, where walls bear a portrait of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan and pictures of members the party says were killed by the Assad regime, the mood is defiant.

“We have our rights, we have our land. We are not refugees here and we will protect ourselves,” said PYD activist Mohammed Said. “We cannot accept any force from outside coming here.”

Along Syria’s border with Iraq, Kurdish militants in jeans and armed with Kalashnikov rifles now guard a frontier post where Assad’s army once patrolled the sparse hillsides dotted with now lifeless oil pumps.

In a classroom in nearby Derik, teenage girls practice reading their own Kurdish language, banned in schools until a few months ago, and Syrian Kurdish leaders express ideological loyalty to Ocalan who is jailed in Turkey.

Under Assad’s rule and his father’s before him, Syrian Kurds were forbidden to learn their language or even to hold Syrian identity and often forced from their land, while their activists were targeted by Syrian intelligence agents.

But after Assad’s forces pulled out from the Kurdish region to fight elsewhere six months ago the PYD and its allied People’s Defense Units or YPG militia began to claim control of towns up against the Turkish border – Derik, Efrin, Kobane and Amuda.

In Derik, a town of 70,000 sitting amid parched fields, daily life appears normal apart from long lines of people waiting for cooking gas.

Kurdish militia forces man improvised checkpoints made of boulders and tires. Committees run a Kurdish court and services such as fuel deliveries. At the city’s one open school, Syria’s Kurmanji Kurdish dialect is openly taught.

“We could never say we were Kurdish before,” said Palashin Omar, 18, in the classroom running through grammar drills. “We were never respected before now.”

But there is also a clear co-existence with the Syrian state.

The Syrian army maintains its own checkpoint unmolested. The PYD party office is 100 meters from the Syrian intelligence agency office and Assad’s Baath party headquarters where portraits of Assad are still on the wall.

PYD activists say they allow a limited government presence for now so they can receive gasoline from Damascus, and that government forces just stay where they are, unable to act.

But suspicions have sharpened dangerous splits with other Syrian Kurdish parties who believe Assad allowed the PYD to consolidate its power and flout an agreement brokered with the smaller Kurdish National Council, or KNC alliance.

“We can say the Kurdish region is liberated once the Syrian army cannot reach it,” KNC leader Abdul Hakim Bashar told Reuters. “Right now there is not a single place they couldn’t reach if they wanted.”

KURDISH SELF-RULE….

…. “This area will be just like Kirkuk,” said one Syrian activist in Derik pointing to the oil derricks just outside the city. “Everyone will come to fight for this.”

Syria Disintegrating
Joshua Landis, Syria Comment
Nov. 6, 2012

Syria is disintegrating ever more quickly into every more factions.

This week we have reports of Palestinians killing Palestinians in Yarmouk and Tadamon. Kurds and Arabs are fighting, although, it appears the rebel woman commander Dejik Nurin is NOT dead. There is an urgent effort afoot to smooth over the hostilities between FSA and the Kurds. Barzani, Iraq’s president warned Syrian Kurds not to fight among themselves or to be sucked into the “fires of discord.”

Various FSA militias are fighting among themselves for checkpoints and border crossings. Car bombs and kidnappings abound. An Islamist car suicide bomber, reportedly from al-Nusra Front, drove into a center used as a base by Syrian security forces and pro-government militia in Hama province, killing at least 50 people. The poor are plundering the rich. The rich are fleeing in every greater numbers in order not to become targets of the poor. Everyone has a price-tag on his head. Wow to those who have wealthy relatives in the West. The cousin of a friend just went down stairs in Aleppo this morning to find, “You are next. Allahu Akbar,” written on the windshield of his car. He called wealthy relatives in the US. They are flying him and his family from Aleppo to Beirut on Friday. Their thinking is that they will spend much more on him when he is kidnapped. It is less expensive to pay for him to leave today than ransom him tomorrow.

The FSA captured an oilfield near Dayr az-Zur, which is only one among many to be had, but how anyone can make money from oilfields today is unclear. I have published maps of the oil fields. The Kurdish region has many, which should be able to pay for autonomy and perhaps eventual independence. Aleppo will be turned into a wasteland because it is the major prize of the North. The FSA moved into Aleppo too quickly, before having any plan for capturing it. But once in, there was no turning back. It is too important a prize for either side to leave to the other. Only the poor will remain in Aleppo.

Wealthier Syrians are confabbing in Doha with the Emirs and Americans in an effort to somehow get regime-change without a loss of control. But the meltdown is well on its way and has a dynamic all its own. There is no stopping it now. Syria is unleashed. Guns rule and the strong will eat the weak.  Brahimi speaks of Syria turning into Somalia and a “big catastrophe.” If that happens, it will become a prime target for American and Israeli drones, which will troll the skies in hunting aL-Qaida and those with a long beards, as is the case in Pakistan and Yemen.

[End]
News Round Up

LA Times [Reg]: In Syria, small-town rebels are stuck in big-city Aleppo
2012-11-06

The outsiders, who entered Aleppo in July, have fought to a deadlock with government forces. Many residents of the once-prosperous city resent the fighters’ presence.ALEPPO, Syria — They are this ancient city’s bedraggled warriors: plowmen and …

These rebels who entered Aleppo from semirural, tradition-bound suburbs and agricultural areas found no spontaneous outpouring of support, no waves of sleeper cells yearning to join the revolution. Many shopkeepers in the historic Old City seem to avoid eye contact with the scruffy legions strutting along the cobblestoned streets of this former Silk Road terminus.

A reporter escorted by rebels on a recent visit couldn’t escape the sensation of accompanying an occupying force.…

Syrian Jihadism by Aron Lund

As the Syrian opposition journalist Malik el-Abdeh puts it, ”the salafi narrative is the only narrative that will make any sense if you’re a religious Sunni in Syria today. The salafis are all about one thing: Ibn Taimiya, Ibn Taimiya, Ibn Taimiya. And what did he say? He said the Noseiris are more dangerous than Jews and Christians, you mustn’t trust them. Over the past year and a half, this has come to be seen as true by many in Syria. Also, jihad is a fundamental part of their beliefs; for a salafi, what makes you Muslim is your capacity to go and fight a jihad. So this jihad-focused ideology, which is anti-Noseiri and anti-Shia, becomes very attractive to a young Sunni man who’s been radicalized and wants to get out and fight.”16

 AP reports

In northern Syria, an opposition figure said rival rebel groups clashed Sunday for control of the Bab al-Salameh border crossing with Turkey. The crossing has been in the hands of rebels since July. The opposition figure spoke on condition of anonymity because of fear of retaliation.

He said the fighting was between the Northern Storm Brigade and the Amr bin al-Aas brigade, which has a large number of Islamic radicals.

There are dozens of opposition groups and rebel brigades fighting in the civil war. Rivalries are common, although violent clashes are unusual.

A Turkish government official based in the border town of Kilis confirmed two Syrian rebel groups were “engaged in a power struggle,” fighting each other for control of the Bab el-Salameh border crossing. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with government rules, said Turkish officials were still trying to determine who the two groups were.

Jerusalem Post: Brahimi: Syria risks becoming failed state
2012-11-06

BEIRUT – The international envoy for Syria fears the country could turn into a new Somalia unless its crisis is resolved, warning of a scenario in which warlords and militia fill a void left by a collapsed state. In an interview with the London …

Cameron backs safe passage for Assad
2012-11-06, By Hannah Kuchler

Nov. 6 (Financial Times) — David Cameron has said Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president, should be allowed a safe passage out of the country if it would end the bloodsh…

U.S. Presses Fractured Syrian Opposition To Unite
by Deborah Amos

US secretary of state Hillary Clinton says Washington needs “an opposition that will be on record strongly resisting the efforts by extremists to hijack the Syrian revolution,” (1)

map by Laura Canali A close look at the oil reserves, refining and transport infrastructure of the northern Kurd area, one of Iraq's oil richest zones: location and names of main oil and gas fields; active, damaged and planned oil and gas pipelines; areas of tensions and guerrillas, layout of ethnic groups.

A decline into uprising: How the geographic roots of revolt mirror Damascus’ economic mismanagement
By Jihad Yazigi on November 01, 2012 – Executive

While there is a general consensus that the uprising gripping Syria since March 2011 is part of the broader regional movement for better governance and more freedoms, there has been little debate as to the extent to which the economic and social conditions prevailing in the country contributed to the uprising. The question of whether Syrians revolted because of their thirst for freedom, justice and dignity or whether they did so because of their poor economic and social conditions remains, however, important if one wants to understand the reasons that led to the uprising and produce viable economic reconstruction plans.

At the beginning of 2011, Syria had been witnessing for several consecutive years an average annual growth in its gross domestic product (GDP) of between 4 and 5 percent, limited current account, trade and fiscal deficits, a stable foreign exchange rate, rising foreign investments and a curtailed inflation rate. These positive macroeconomic data hid, however, many imbalances that lay behind them, and other longer-term trends must be taken into account in order to better understand the dynamics of the revolution.

The level of GDP growth, for instance, may be high by Western standards but is wholly inadequate by Syrian ones. Indeed, according to most analysts, an average growth of 8 percent is required to generate enough jobs for new labor-market entrants. For more than three decades GDP growth has fallen short of that level, meaning an uninterrupted increase in unemployment for some 30 years in a row….

Booms and busts

A look at longer-term trends helps puts things in perspective. In 1946 Syria was a founding member of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the predecessor of the World Trade Organization — out of only 23 countries in the world. In the 1950s, when Algeria was still under French rule and the majority of ‘third world’ countries were still fighting for independence, Syria had a buoyant economy and a vibrant political life. Then, three decades of strong state investment in the country’s physical infrastructure and in its health and education services helped boost the country’s development indicators. In the 1970s, Syria’s Human Development Index — a composite statistic of life expectancy, education and income calculated by the United Nations — was growing at a rate among the highest in the world. In 1983, Syria’s per capita GDP, at $1,901, was higher than that of Turkey — $1,753 — and almost on par with that of South Korea ($2,187). That was only 30 years ago.

Surveying what followed in the 1980s is important in order to trace back the economic challenges the country now faces. At the beginning of that decade the Syrian economy contracted sharply, partly as a consequence of the fall in global oil prices and the decline in remittances and aid from Gulf countries. The foreign currency reserves dried up, leading to a rapid devaluation in the value of the Syrian Pound starting in 1986; this year marked the beginning of the implosion of Syria’s middle class. ……

Starting in the 2000s, and coinciding with Bashar al-Assad succeeding his father as president, the decline in oil production again threatened the government’s fiscal position and serious economic reforms finally began. …. These developments spurred the creation of modern and relatively sophisticated banking and insurance sectors with the entry of some two dozen regional banks and financial institutions in the market. The expansion of retail trade and of the tourism industry was evidenced with the construction of large malls and the entry of global hotel operators. What is more, concessions were awarded to private international companies for the management of the country’s two ports of Tartous and Lattakia and there was a general boom in the services sector.

However, this policy of economic liberalization was marred with mistakes typical of similar processes in other developing countries.

The downside of opening up….

Was Murdered Lebanese Intel Chief a Hero or Double Agent?
By Erich Follath | Der Spiegel

Shadi Hamid writes: One of the great mysteries of the past four years is how Barack Obama — who rose to the presidency, in part, on his promises to fundamentally re-think and re-orient U.S. policy in the Middle East — has instead spent his term running away from the region. It is difficult to remember […]

Clinton’s Effort to Build a Syrian Government in Exile Seems Doomed
by Joshua Landis, Nov. 3, 2012, Syria Comment

Already the Syrian opposition’s back biting and emulous factions seem determined to sink Washington’s latest effort. Hillary Clinton is having a last go a putting together a “secularish,” upper-class leadership for the Syrian rebel effort. A swansong?

Washington’s Plan A, which was to create the SNC, went down in dust. By all accounts, Clinton cannot even stand to hear the name, SNC, uttered any longer.

Plan B was to set up the US office in Istanbul to meet and take the measure of Syrian militia leaders and local coordinating committee directors. The militia leaders scared Washington and the CIA. The word got out that they were “penetrated” by al-Qaida and Salafi types.

Plan C is now in the making. It is to return to the educated Syrians in the hope of doing a little shake-and-bake. Clinton is reconstituting some sort of US-friendly leadership drawn from elements of the old SNC with generous add-mixtures of Coordinating Committee types, some government defectors, and others who will join. It sounds as if the SNC is boycotting. Michel Kilo has said he will not join. Others are also taking a wait-and-see attitude.

The object of this exercise seems to be to glue some sort of US-friendly educated elite onto the military effort that looks too Islamist for Washington’s taste and not very human-rights observant.

But can this last minute fix possibly work?

This effort is almost identical to US and British efforts of the 1950s to stop Syria from slipping into the hands of the USSR, Nasser and the leftist Baathists.

Eisenhower and Anthony Eden did everything they could in 1956 to force Syria’s urban elites to cooperate in a pro-Western coup, but to no avail. The two largest parties in parliament – the People’s Party of Aleppo and the National Party of Damascus refused to cooperate among themselves in order to avoid revolution .  Pro-Western Syrian politicians insulted and fought amongst themselves with such ferocity, that Western diplomats pulled their hair with despair as they sought to keep Syria from going “commie.”

When the coup failed, many of Syria’s leading pro-Western notables were accused of treason and fled the country. In 1957, the US sought to carry out another putsch, this time on its own. The “American coup”, as it was named, was no more successful. Some of the CIA operatives in charge of handling the Syrians are still alive. Additional Syrian politicians sympathetic to the West were forced to flee the country. Destabilized by Washington’s failed coup making, Syria announced the creation of the United Arab Republic only months later. Nasser become president and carried out wide-ranging land reform in order to destroyed the economic underpinnings of the urban notables that had allied with the West.

Today, Washington is again trying to rally the pro-Western elites of Syria into putting their shoulders to a common wheel with America. In 1957, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iraq cooperated in Washington’s efforts for regime change. Today Qatar replaces Iraq, but the line up of states helping the US in its “struggle for Syria” has hardly changed. Other aspects that have not changed are the infighting among Syria’s elites and the general resentment and distrust that Syrians share toward the US . It is hard to be optimistic.

[End]

News Round Up

Exclusive: Bashar Assad wants war not peace reveals Syria’s former prime minister Riyad Hijab
The most senior politician to defect from the Bashar al-Assad’s regime has revealed that the President repeatedly rejected calls by his own government for a political compromise, in favour of all-out war.

Kurds and FSA Build Bad Blood

The brewing war between Syria’s Kurds and Arabs may not wait until Assad falls. The murder of Nujeen Dirik, the 42 year old Kurdish female militia leader from Aleppo, by the FSA is likely to spark  revenge killings. The FSA in Aleppo lured Dirik into a trap by making a deal to exchange bodies of the dead and kidnapped supporters.  When Dirik led a group of Kurdish fighters to the anti-regime insurgents to make the hand-off, she was snatched. A week later she was killed by the FSA rather than traded.

Dirik headed a militia unit charged with protecting the Ashrafiyeh and Sheikh Maqsud districts of Aleppo. This was a clear show of force by the FSA meant to demonstrate to the Kurds not to try to intimidate FSA insurgents. The Kurds may suck up this defeat and choose not to launch a war of vengeance, but it is unlikely that they will not make a move to reassurt their control over the Ashrafiyeh neighborhood that was penetrated by FSA troops last week.

Syria rebels kill woman Kurd militia leader: NGO
November 02, 2012, Agence France Presse

BEIRUT: Syrian rebels have killed a Kurdish woman militia leader in the northern city of Aleppo, highlighting growing tensions between anti-regime fighters and the Kurds, a monitoring group said Friday.

“Shaha Ali Abdu, also known as Nujeen Dirik, was killed early on Friday. She headed a Kurdish popular defence unit that is part of the Democratic Union Party (PYD),” Syria’s branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. “She was killed a week after she was captured by rebels,” the Britain-based watchdog added. The PYD opposes the regime of President Bashar al-Assad but has taken a neutral position in ongoing fighting in embattled Aleppo, the country’s commercial hub.

A wider Arab-Kurdish war could follow any regime change in Damascus” says Joost Hilterman http://ow.ly/eXR23

No matter who wins Tuesday’s election, U.S. likely to become entangled in Syria’s war
By Jonathan S. Landay | McClatchy Newspapers

“I believe America does not want to do anything, but to allow Bashar Assad to destroy Syria,” said Haythem al-Maleh, a former judge and political activist. “Only in Syria can the army kill people without any limit, with people of the world just looking on.”

Syria’s rebels fear foreign jihadis in their midst
As Salafis arrive to seek final battle with Shias, one town elder claims: ‘They will demand that we return to the seventh century’
Martin Chulov in Aleppo,  guardian, 1 Nov 2012

In early summer, Abu Ismael, a six-year veteran of al-Qaida, left the insurgency still blazing in his homeland of Iraq and travelled to what he believes is the start of the apocalypse.

He secured cash from a benefactor in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil, then approached a weapons dealer in Anbar province, a desolate corner of the country that was not long ago a staging point for jihadis arriving from Syria and is now a gateway for those going the other way.

“It was easy,” he said, in the sitting room of a house in the Syrian city of Aleppo. “The money was no problem, neither was the weapon, or the motivation. This will be a fight against the great enemy.”

Around the hard-bitten 23-year-old sat three members of a Syrian rebel militia who were acting as his hosts. They looked at the floor as the young jihadi explained Qur’anic teachings that he said were shaping the battle ahead. “I don’t care about the future,” he said. “I care about today. Muhammad the Messenger said there would be a battle between the Persians and the Sunnis. And it is coming.

“When the regime falls, all those who fought against the Muslims will be my enemy, especially the Shias,” he said, reiterating a view held by some Sunni extremists that Shia are their biggest foes.

The hosts shifted nervously, still avoiding eye contact. The stranger in their midst had sought refuge among them two months ago. Since then he had rented a house, won a ride to the battle zone whenever he wants and earned the support of some of the area’s rebel units.

He has even won a more coveted prize: the right to marry the daughter of one of the fighter’s cousins, a union that took place on Thursday with the qualified blessing of residents and clerics.

Not everyone in the unit was happy with the wedding. “It’s you scratch my back, I scratch yours,” said one young rebel, Abu Saif. “He’s a Salafi, there is no doubt about that,” he added, referring to the ultra-fundamentalist school of Qur’anic thinking. “And he doesn’t represent what we believe.”

Remonstrating with the unnamed young girl’s uncle sitting nearby, Abu Saif said: “You tell me what benefit we get from him, or that your family gets.” The uncle shrugged, offering no reply.

As Syria’s civil war grinds inexorably on, it is becoming as much a clash of ideologies as a battle of military will. The frontlines that were hurriedly carved out of Aleppo’s ancient stone heart and concrete suburbs during the heady days of summer now seem almost secondary in the contest to determine the type of society that will one day rise from the ruins.

For the most part, the opposition movement is staying true to the ethos that led many of the country’s towns and citizens to mount a challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s absolute state control over their lives. But around the fringes, there are signs that the revolution’s original values are starting to fray. The narrative of a defiant street versus a draconian state, so simple in March 2011, is now far more complicated.

“We want just what they got in Tunis and Egypt,” said Mahmoud Razak, a shop-keeper in the outer suburbs. “Freedom and the chance to progress in life. But we thought it would take 19 days like it took [in Egypt]. It’s now 19 months. We didn’t know it would be this difficult.”

To those now hosting Abu Ismael, the Iraqi jihadi embodies one of the major problems. Though for the most part conservative and pious, the men of this part of Aleppo refuse to see the crisis now consuming Syria in existential terms. To them, this is still a fight for self-determination, not the forum for an apocalyptic showdown with a preordained foe.

“What is this global jihad that he talks about?” asked a town elder, Abu Abdullah, after the Iraqi had left to prepare for his wedding. “We will be used as toys by them, just as the Sunni communities were in Iraq. When they have had their way with us they will demand that we return to the seventh century under the blade of a sword.”

Abu Ismael made no secret of his wish for Syria to be the heartland of an al-Qaida-led renaissance. Nor, unusually, did he hide what he had done in Iraq, or what he planned to do in the new war. In a candid hour-long discussion, he offered a rare insight into the terror group’s designs on Syria and the organisation’s fraught battle to assert itself. “I was a member of the al-Qaida organisation from 2005-11,” he said, his black eyes set in an unflinching stare. “I joined them with my father when I was 16 and apart from one and a half months in prison, I was very active in every way.”

The young Iraqi’s attire and demeanour were unmistakably those of a Salafi. He refused cigarettes, cuffed the bottoms of his fatigues at ankle level and wore a black skull cap over closely cropped black hair. More instructively, he spoke with derision about Shia Muslims, whom he said were increasingly travelling to Syria to fight the Sunni-led opposition.

“They are saying they are going to protect the Sit Zeinab mosque in Damascus,” he said of a shrine revered by Shias. “The Jaish al-Mahdi [Mahdi army] and Hezbollah are just using that as cover to enter the rest of Syria. We will not let them. We will attack it, perhaps not to destroy it, but to drive them out.

“There are around 50 Iraqis in each area of northern Syria. Perhaps more. It was not difficult to get here and it is not hard to find other mujahideen. We can fight where we want to and when we want to. And God willing we will prevail.”

His restless hosts were not so sure. Bound by social customs that offer wayfarers shelter and hospitality, this rebel unit seemed to sense that trouble is brewing between them and the growing band of global jihadis. Many rebel groups the Guardian spoke to this week said a showdown was looming with the new arrivals.

“I give it six months,” said one rebel officer at a checkpoint in the old market place in the central Aleppo suburb of Midan on Thursday. “Maybe a year,” said another. “I was in Iraq fighting the Americans and I saw how they changed once they sensed they had power.”

“It’s so mixed up,” said a third young rebel, a defector from Damascus. “And this is just how Bashar wants it.”

Rise of the Salafis

Bashar al-Assad has insisted from the start that Syria was facing attack by “armed terrorist gangs”, not a popular uprising – though there is ample evidence of the army firing on mostly unarmed demonstrators. But it has become clear that extremist Salafi or jihadi groups, some linked to al-Qaida, are now a significant element of the armed opposition.

Alongside fighters from al-Qaida in Iraq or Fatah al-Islam from Lebanon is the mysterious Jabhat al-Nusra, which has claimed responsibility for suicide bombings in Damascus and Aleppo. It is sympathetic to al-Qaida. Others hail from Jordan, Libya and Algeria.

The overwhelming majority of jihadis are Syrian, with the number of foreigners ranging from 1,200 to 1,500 members. Jihadi groups in Syria represent less than 10% of all fighters. Still, many have combat experience in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Libya and compete for funds and weapons with the Free Syrian Army, the main armed opposition group.

“Most foreign fighters go abroad to defend their fellow Muslim brethren from being slaughtered,” according to Aaron Y Zelin, an analyst at the Washington Institute.

“Once in the area of battle, though, many come into closer contact with hardline jihadis, as well as fighters from other countries, and are exposed to new ideas.

“Therefore, portions of foreign fighters are not fighting to help establish a future state for Syrian nationals. Rather, they hope to annex it to be part of their grander aims of establishing emirates that will eventually lead to a re-established caliphate – however fanciful this project might be.” Ian Black

Syrian opposition group tells U.S. to stay out of internal politics
By Roy Gutman | McClatchy Newspapers

ISTANBUL — A U.S. decision to de-recognize a Syrian exile umbrella group and to propose a new political forum – and even who should be on it – drew an angry response from opposition figures Thursday, who charged that Washington was trying to impose its will on them while passively watching the bombardment of cities and towns by the Assad regime.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday that the United States would no longer view the Syrian National Council “as the visible leader” of the opposition and said she had “recommended names and organizations which we believe should be included in any leadership structure.”

“The politics of the United States are very, very bad, very stupid,” said Mohammed Sarmini, spokesman for the Syrian National Council, whose 310 members represent most of the major parties and organizations in exile. “This may be an American project, but it is very offensive to the Syrian people. You should support us on the ground, not get into our politics.”

A respected Syrian scholar who heads a Washington think tank was equally critical.

“I think that no country . . . can interfere or can impose the leaders on the Syrian opposition,” said Radwan Ziadeh, executive director of the Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies, who’s also a Syrian National Council member. “I call on the international community to back and support the Syrian opposition groups so they can organize themselves, not to interfere in the different groups.”

The U.S. move came on the eve of a conference in Doha, Qatar, where the Syrian National Council, known as the SNC, plans to elect a new board and restructure itself, then later meet with other groups not under its umbrella and forge a common strategy. The meetings coincide with the U.S. presidential election.

Clinton said she had consulted European allies and members of the Arab League before reaching the decision, but there were signs that the Obama administration may be out of touch with Syrian exile politics.

Just as Clinton was speaking in Zagreb, Croatia, to reporters accompanying her on a two-day swing through the Balkans, Ziadeh was wrapping up a three-day conference in an Istanbul suburb where all the Syrian opposition parties reached accord on a plan leading to a transitional government.

Jihadist killing of captives widens the split among rebel fighters in Syria
Martin Chulov in Aleppo, Guardian

Islamists are being favoured with arms and funds

Rebel groups are accusing Syria’s military council of infighting and nepotism and a failure to lead in the wake of a video that shows an opposition unit killing around two dozen captured regime soldiers.

Armed opposition units across the Aleppo hinterland say the western-backed council is failing in its bid to create a co-ordinated opposition army, partly because of its refusal to deal with Islamist-leaning Syrian groups.

The groups say the military council’s favouritism towards some units means other militias are unwilling to act with discipline or to be held accountable. The disturbing scenes of the captured regime troops being killed, shortly after their post near Damascus was overrun, have angered rebel units in the north.

“We have to show we are different from the regime,” said Sheik Omar Othman from the Islamist-leaning Liwat al-Tawheed unit in Aleppo. “Because they do it, it means that we don’t.”

Syrian Islamist groups have been at the vanguard of the fighting in Aleppo for the past three months, but are not able to match the better-armed and funded global jihadist units, who are increasingly taking centre stage in the war for the north of the country.

“This will soon mean that Jabhat al-Nusraf (an al-Qaida-aligned group) will be the only group capable of mounting the lethal operations on bases and security headquarters,” said a leader of Liwat al-Tawheed, which has been a key player in the fighting in Aleppo. “It already means that we can’t win without them.”

Islamist groups in Aleppo say that they aim to do no more than oust the Assad regime. Most of their clerics and leaders reject the ideology of the jihadists, who openly view the battle in Syria as a vital phase of a global sectarian war.

With Aleppo effectively locked in stalemate since mid-August, commanders from Liwat al-Tawheed and other units in and around Syria’s second city have been travelling to near the Turkish border to meet military council leaders. “They say, ‘join us, or we won’t give you anything’,” said Othman. “We are not opposed to doing that if it means that we get a share of the weapons that they are distributing…..

Syria Media Roundup (November 1) – Jadiliyya

 WSJ [Reg]: Iran Hides Behind Exotic Flags to Help Syria
2012-11-01 BY BENOÎT FAUCON

LONDON—Iran is playing a complex game of cat-and-mouse as it tries to assist its ally Syria while avoiding tighter international sanctions on its oil trade. Iran is shipping oil to Syria by hiding vessels behind front companies and exotic flags to evade international sanctions and aid its isolated ally, according to sanctions experts and people in the shipping industry.

Iran sent an oil tanker loaded with refined products from its Persian Gulf port of Bandar Abbas to Syria’s Mediterranean terminal at Baniyas last week, according to ship-tracking website Marine Traffic, which follows radio signals emitted by vessels, and a shipping official working at the Syrian oil port.

When it docked at Baniyas, the tanker was named the Hillari and was flying the Honduran flag, the …

Reuters reports: Syrian rebels said on Wednesday they had begun arming sympathetic Palestinians to fight a pro-Assad faction in a Palestinian enclave in Damascus – a move which could fuel spiraling intra-Palestinian violence. Two rebel commanders told Reuters they expected their Palestinian allies to fight the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command […]

CIA Takes Heat for Role in Libya
By ADAM ENTOUS, SIOBHAN GORMAN and MARGARET COKER
Wall Street Journal, November 1, 2012

Death toll at more than 100,000 in Syria, estimates European diplomat in Istanbul who closely monitors Syria” http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/11/01/173336/syrian-opposition-group-tells.html#storylink=cpy …

Gregg Carlstrom: Press conference for this big Syrian opposition confab in Doha is scheduled for… Nov. 6. Election day. Syrian rebels, you need new PR guys

What is Hezbollah’s Role in the Syrian Crisis?
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 10 Issue: 20
November 2, 2012, By: Nicholas A. Heras

[Photo: Ali Hussein Nassif (Source Yalibnan)]

Recent reports of an increase in Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria’s civil war as combatants alongside the Syrian military represent a potentially sharp escalation in the regional impact of the ongoing conflict. Accusations concerning Hezbollah’s military support for the Assad government leveled by the party’s Lebanese political opponents, the Syrian opposition and pro-opposition states have been persistent since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in March 2011.Hezbollah’s leadership has replied that it is protecting Lebanese Shi’a villagers living along the Lebanese-Syrian border from attacks by Syrian rebels and that the Syrian opposition is actively being funded and armed by anti-Assad international actors, including Hezbollah’s Lebanese opponents in the March 14 political bloc (Daily Star [Beirut], October 15).

On October 3, Free Syrian Army (FSA) chief Colonel Riyad Musa al-As’ad stated that the FSA had killed a senior Hezbollah military commander named Ali Hussein Nassif (a.k.a. “Abu Abbas”) and two of his bodyguards near the restive city of Qusayr on the Lebanese-Syrian border. Colonel al-As’ad further asserted that Nassif’s activities in the area had been monitored for two weeks, and that his death was the result of a carefully planned FSA targeted assassination intended as part of a larger FSA offensive against Hezbollah in and around Qusayr (The Daily Star, October 3). Hezbollah officials simply stated that Nassif had died “performing his jihadi duties” (AP, October 2). Several weeks after Nassif’s death, the FSA claimed it had killed an additional 60 Hezbollah fighters and captured 13 in the vicinity of Qusayr (al-Mustaqbal [Beirut], October 12).

Lebanese newspapers (some of them antagonistic to Hezbollah) have recently begun publishing stories describing a deeper military commitment by Hezbollah to the Syrian regime. According to one such report, an agreement between the Syrian Defense Ministry and Hezbollah calls for the latter to provide over 2,000 “elite” fighters to Syria in the event of a foreign invasion. The report also claimed that Hassan Nasrallah offered the Assad government the full use of Hezbollah’s military capabilities in the event that “urgent assistance” was needed (al-Jamhouria [Beirut], July 26).

Another Lebanese publication claimed that Unit 901, an alleged elite Hezbollah military unit, had crossed into Syria to fight in the cities of Qusayr, al-Rastan, Talbiseh, and Homs, all near the Lebanese-Syrian border (An-Nahar [Beirut], July 27). This movement of Hezbollah troops into Syria was reported to be the result of the Syrian military’s need for assistance in the campaign to defeat rebels in Aleppo (Majalla, August 23). Hezbollah, along with the Iranian Quds Force, was also alleged to be training a 60,000-person Syrian military division modeled after the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to protect the Alawite-majority Latakia Governorate of Syria (Asharq Al-Awsat, September 30).

Hezbollah’s soldiers were recently reported to have been participating as shock troops in several of the most intense battles of the conflict, including in and around Homs, Hama, suburbs of Damascus such as Zabadani and in the vital northern city of Aleppo (al-Sharq al-Awsat, October 20). FSA units operating in Qusayr claim they have killed over 300 Hezbollah and Iranian fighters (AFP, October 7). A defected member of the powerful Syrian Air Force Intelligence Branch has asserted that Hezbollah has 1,500 fighters supporting the Syrian military inside the country (Times UK, October 6).

Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary General, has refuted these allegations, stating that his party only supports the al-Assad government politically and that it was assisting 30,000 Lebanese Shi’a villagers living in 20 villages in Syria near the Lebanese border. [1] The villagers, in close vicinity to Qusayr and the city of Hermel in Lebanon, had, according to Nasrallah, been the victims of targeted assaults by the FSA and deserved the right to self-defense and support from the party (Ahul Bayt News Agency, October 12).

Shi’a refugees from the embattled villages claimed that over 5,000 armed men, the majority with ties to Hezbollah, were protecting the villages from attack (AFP, October 17). Hezbollah is alleged to have used Katyusha rockets against Sunni villages on the Syrian side of the border (Independent, October 26).

In spite of Hezbollah’s strong support for the al-Assad government, the presence of thousands of Hezbollah fighters actively participating in Syrian battlefields would be a significant departure from the established understanding of the party’s force capabilities. At present, the most consistent reports of direct Hezbollah military involvement in Syria occur in regions of the country that border Lebanon and have a significant Shi’a population, or in areas that are of strategic interest to Hezbollah because of their use as routes for moving weapons from Iran through Syria, such as the route through the Zabadan District of the Rif Dimashq Governorate.

Fissures in Hizballah’s Edifice of Control

On August 15, Beirut awoke to the news that more than 20 alleged members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) had been captured by a group calling itself “the military wing of the al-Miqdad family.” The group had sent footage…

Syria’s rebels need to strike at the regime’s backbone

If Syria’s rebels are to achieve palpable results, they need an effective strategy that includes hitting the regime where it hurts……

The regime’s leaders still believe that they can win this conflict as long as the ground forces are resilient and able to fight a protracted civil war, which could last for several years.

If rank-and-file officers begin to feel that they are bearing the brunt of the fighting, they will recognise the limits of their power, and the importance of compromise to save their own skins.

The second area that rebels must work on is establishing political leadership with a strong presence on the ground. Contrary to popular belief, a unified political opposition is even more urgent than a unified command-and-control structure among the armed rebels. Many of the disagreements among anti-regime fighters are the result of rivalries at the political level – the most salient example is the distribution of arms according to political loyalties.

A unified on-the-ground resistance cannot be the prerequisite for assistance and weapons supplies.

A coherent political leadership, backed financially and politically by foreign states, is more urgent than ever….

Commander Of Syrian Jihadi Group To Iran, Russia, China, Hizbullah: ‘You Will Not Set Foot On Syrian Soil After You Have Drunk The Blood Of Our People And Helped The Oppressor’

On October 26, 2012, the jihadi forum Shumoukh Al-Islam published a communiqué from Abu ‘Abdallah Al-Hamawi, commander of the “Ahrar Al-Sham” (“Syrian Liberation”) Brigades, in which he greeted the mujahideen in Syria specifically, and the Muslim ummah in general, on the occasion of ‘Eid Al-Adha (which falls this year on October 26-29). He noted that despite the heavy price the Syrian people was paying, “the buds of victory have become a torch lighting the roadsides and strengthening the hands of the mujahideen,” adding that the latter would cling to their path until oppression and tyranny were done away with.

Pictures Of Jabhat Al-Nusra Training Camp Posted Online

On October 28, 2012, the jihadi website Shumoukh Al-Islam posted what it described as exclusive pictures from Jabhat Al-Nusra’s “Fatih” camp. Fatih is said to be a training camp in Syria where the group trains its fighters. The pictures show dozens of masked men training with weapons, including an anti-aircraft gun.

The following is a selection of pictures posted on the website:

Prominent Jihadi Jurist: ‘Fighting [The Alawites] Is A Muslim Duty, Even If They Are Quiet And Peaceful – Let Alone If They Are Waging A Vicious War Against The Muslims And Slaughtering Them’

The Al-Maqreze Center For Historical Studies in London, run by Dr. Hani Al-Siba’i, a member of the shari’a council for the jihadi website Minbar Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad, published an October 21, 2012 fatwa by Sheikh Abu Mundhir Al-Shinqiti, another member of the shari’a council, concerning the duty of Sunni Muslims to fight the Alawites. In his fatwa, Al-Shinqiti rules that the Alawites are not Muslims, and that it is the duty of all Muslims to fight them. He says that the Alawites are committed to the hatred of Muslims and Islam, and that since the dawn of history they have persecuted the Sunnis and joined forces with the enemies of Islam. He stresses that this duty to fight Alawites refers not only to a war against the current Syrian regime or the Ba’th party, but a war against the entire Alawite sect because, he states, “Syria will see no revival of Islam unless it rids itself of this infidel sect.”

Following are excerpts from Al-Shinqiti’s fatwa:

Al-Shinqiti begins by saying that one of tragedies of Islam today is that apostate sects are considered an inseparable part of the Islamic Ummah. Therefore, he says, there are those who work to hide the truth about the principles of the Alawite faith despite the horrors they inflict upon Islam and Muslims, and demand that the Alawites be treated the same as Muslims. He explains that in light of this reality, he has decided to expose the truth regarding the Alawites’ heretical faith and their hatred of Islam.

A famous American coloring shampoo advertisement years ago used the effective slogan, referring to whether or not the woman in the ad dyed her hair, “Does she or doesn’t she?” The same question can be asked today about Hilary Clinton’s attitude to the Syrian opposition and the uprising to overthrow President…

The second problem is that any Syrian or Arab groups that the U.S. now publicly supports will be tainted as hand-picked agents of Washington, a status that is usually the kiss of death for most individuals or organizations in the Arab world, where public opinion still sees the U.S. and Israel as the two most serious threats to the Arab security.

The third problem is that this smacks of yet another dimension of a neocolonial mindset and enterprise that still plagues the Middle East,

The double irony of this situation for the U.S. and others who worry that Islamists and militant Salafists are playing a bigger role in the resistance to Assad’s regime is that this move is likely to strengthen, rather than weaken, the Islamists’ role in the national rebellion,[…]

Obama administration works to launch new Syrian opposition council, Posted By Josh Rogin, Foreign Policy

Syrian opposition leaders of all stripes will convene in Qatar next week to form a new leadership body to subsume the opposition Syrian National Council, which is widely viewed as ineffective, consumed by infighting, and little respected on the ground, The Cable has learned.

The United States is withdrawing support for the Syrian National Council (SNC) and helping form a more representative opposition group. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said “There has to be representation of those who are on the front lines, fighting and dying today to obtain their freedom.” The SNC is largely comprised of exiles. The Obama administration has been working behind the scenes for several months in negotiations to build a new Syrian opposition leadership. Clinton said she has been heavily involved in planning an Arab League supported meeting for next week in Doha, Qatar, where opposition figures will work to form a new opposition body. U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, pulled form Syria last year due to safety concerns, has also been working to assemble a new group. It is expected to have between 35 and 50 representatives, up to one third of which will likely go to members of the SNC. Former Syrian Prime Minister Riyad Hijab, who defected in August, is one of the people proposed for the new council. Addressing increasing reports of Islamist extremist involvement in fighting in Syria, Clinton also warned the opposition should “strongly resist the efforts by the extremists to hijack the Syrian revolution.” Meeting with U.N. and Arab League envoy on Syria Lakdar Brahimi, China proposed a plan to end violence in Syria including a regionally phased ceasefire and establishment of a transitional government. Meanwhile, violence continued Wednesday with street fights in Aleppo and a bombing in Atarib, 12 miles west of the city, which hit a breadline and killed at least 15 people. Additionally, a bomb exploded at a Shiite shrine in Damascus near a government checkpoint.

Clinton’s statements slammed as ‘astounding’ by SNC – aljazeera

Louay Safia, member of the Syrian National Council, called recent comments by Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, regarding the SNC “an astounding statement”.

Though Safia admits the largely foreign-based opposition group has under-performed in some areas, he said “the secretrary will have to take some credit for that”.

In response to Clinton’s fears of “extremist” groups taking hold in the Syrian opposition, Safia says such groups are everywhere, but “in Syria they are very marginal”.

Safia then went on to criticse US policy in Syria saying Washington is currently working on a deal with Moscow and that the Obama administration “would like to have quiet in Syria”, even if that means Bashar al-Assad, Syrian president, retains some level of power.

The Creation Of A U.S.-Approved Syrian Government In Exile – OpEd
By: Paul Woodward, October 31, 2012

Is American diplomacy an oxymoron? The Syrian opposition has been notoriously fractured, so the goal of forging unity among what have hitherto been disparate groups clearly makes sense. What makes no sense but should be no surprise is Washington’s typical heavy-handedness in trying to achieve this goal.

An upcoming Qatar meeting “will include dozens of opposition leaders from inside Syria, including from the provincial revolutionary councils, the local ‘coordination committees’ of activists, and select people from the newly established local administrative councils.

So far so good. But then comes this message from a senior Obama administration official: “We need to be clear: This is what the Americans support, and if you want to work with us you are going to work with this plan and you’re going to do this now,” the official said. “We aren’t going to waste anymore time. The situation is worsening. We need to do this now.”

Stand to attention and follow our instructions because America is running out of patience.

Is that the kind of admonition that’s going to smooth out all the discord? I don’t think so. What it is, is the imperial American way….

Fighting erupts between Syrian rebels and Kurds – Liz Sly in Washington Post

BEIRUT — Nearly a week of fighting between Kurds and Arab rebels in northern Syria risks opening a new front in the already bloody battle for control of the country, underscoring the complexity of a conflict that threatens to ignite sectarian and ethnic tensions across the region…..

Syrian rebels execute unarmed government soldiers; dozens killed in fighting
By Babak Dehghanpisheh, Thursday, November 1, 12: Wash Post

BEIRUT— Syrian rebels executed at least a half-dozen unarmed government soldiers Thursday after attacks on a series of checkpoints near the town of Saraqeb in northwest Syria.

At least 28 government soldiers and five opposition fighters were killed in the rebel operation that targeted checkpoints on roads connecting Saraqeb to Aleppo and Ariha, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The execution of the soldiers, which was documented in a graphic video posted online Thursday, is not the first time that rebel soldiers appear to have committed war crimes. United Nations representatives and human rights organizations have repeatedly criticized the Syrian opposition in recent months for carrying out summary executions and for abusing detainees.

In early August, members of a clan loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were executed by rebels and a gruesome video of that killing was widely disseminated on the Internet. That killing prompted some commanders of the Free Syrian Army to write a code of conduct for their fighters in an attempt to curb human rights abuses. But the execution of the soldiers Thursday was a clear sign that the code is not being observed by all the rank and file. ….

The video posted online Thursday, which allegedly was filmed at the Hamisho checkpoint west of Saraqeb, shows rebel soldiers kicking and insulting the government soldiers who are spread out on the ground. Some of them appear to be wounded. One of the soldiers pleads, “I did not hit anyone, by Allah. I did not kill anyone.”

The man filming the video tells the soldier to shut up and says, “Organize them for me.” The fighters pull the soldiers into a pile in the center of the room and open fire on the group, kicking up clouds of dust. The shooting continues for 20 seconds.

A second video posted online Thursday, which appears to have been filmed shortly after the execution, shows at least three other bodies spread out around the checkpoint. The man filming approaches two of the bodies and says, “The shabiha of Assad, the dogs.”

A friend writes:

This week there are clashes between FSA and popular committees from two predominantly Shiite towns. The two towns fighting the FSA are Nubbol (population 21,000) and al-Zahraa (poulation 14,000), about 10 miles north of Aleppo on the way to Azaz (FSA) and Afrain (Kurds), and just north of Anadan (FSA) and Hretan (FSA). The news clip said that the armed committees from Nubbol and al-Zahraa supported by Syrian Army artillery and tank fires, attacked the FSR in Anand.

The creation of a U.S.-approved Syrian government in exile
Posted: 31 Oct 2012

Is American diplomacy an oxymoron? The Syrian opposition has been notoriously fractured, so the goal of forging unity among what have hitherto been disparate groups clearly makes sense. What makes no sense but should be no surprise is Washington’s typical heavy-handedness in trying to achieve this goal. An upcoming Qatar meeting “will include dozens of […]

Mona Yacoubian, Shifting the Pradigm in Syria

…..Further militarization of the Syrian conflict would exacerbate an already volatile situation on the ground, deepening and protracting Syria’s sectarian civil war. Far from providing relief for innocent civilians, fueling the conflict with more arms risks further endangering civilians. The armed opposition’s inability to unify and its continued radicalization as well as enduring divisions between key patrons, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, underscore the inherent risks of this option. Differences among Syria’s various armed opposition groups, not to mention between Arabs and Kurds, could erupt into open hostilities in Syria’s mounting chaos. Meanwhile, jihadist elements, while still a distinct minority, appear to be gaining influence.

Moreover, the arming process could pose a significant threat to U.S. national security interests given the difficulty of ensuring that the arms ultimately do not end up in the wrong hands. The blowback of U.S. interventions in Iraq in the 2000s and Afghanistan in the 1980s is a potent reminder of the risks. Experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan also suggest that arming the opposition will not necessarily confer greater U.S. influence on them should they come to power. Time and again, the United States has been confronted with the limits of its influence if it was garnered solely by supplying arms and in the absence of deeper political and strategic common interests.

Nor does channeling more sophisticated weaponry to the armed rebels guarantee that they will gain a strategic edge over the regime. Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia — the Syrian regime’s primary patrons — would likely meet such an escalation with a commensurate upping of the ante. Already, Tehran has doubled down on its support for the regime since mid-July when the rebels mounted a successful attack against key elements of the regime and escalated the battle in Damascus and Aleppo. Likewise, Hezbollah has provided greater support to the Assad regime, reportedly sending fighters to train and possibly fight alongside the shabiha, Syria’s sectarian paramilitary forces.

Establishing a safe zone in northern Syria will require a significant U.S. military commitment. The United States will necessarily need to play a leading role in disabling Syria’s complex air defense systems, including batteries south of Damascus. Moreover, a safe zone will require a military presence (possibly Turkish or Arab) on the ground to defend the area. U.S. military involvement in Syria, even if limited to air strikes, likely would catalyze jihadist involvement in Syria, drawing more foreign fighters into an arena in which the United States is directly engaged.

Rather than pursue military options, the United States needs to build a broad-based coalition for a peaceful transition in Syria. It should seek to create conditions that will alter the dynamic from militarization to diplomacy. The United States must resist the temptation to join a sectarian battle that threatens to engulf the region. It should tamp down sectarian tensions across the region, not play into them by viewing Syria solely via a sectarian prism that pits the region’s Sunni powers against the arc of Shiite influence spearheaded by Iran.

Instead, the United States must rise above the violence and help provide a way out of the crisis. Washington should leverage the latest escalations — both inside Syria and regionally — to assert its leadership via NATO and the United Nations and shift the dynamic regionally and globally. It should seek to turn the real danger of a regional war into an opening for regional and global diplomacy backed by the credible threat of force via Article 5 of the NATO treaty should these efforts fail……

Kati Woronka, who writes the blog,ed Culturtwined has a new book about

Syrian culture and society, particularly from the perspective of Syrian women. After several years living in Syria and conducting academic research there, I began writing stories based on what I was learning. Dreams in the Medina is a full-length novel, a coming-of-age tale which explores the aspirations, passions and tragedies of a group of young Syrian women, who on the surface seem to have nothing in common but who are brought together in the deepest of bonds as they study and live together at the University of Damascus.

The book is now available for download as an e-book! My desire is that this book will be a discussion. Read it with friends and talk about Syria. Transport yourself to the world of the Medina Jamayeia in Damascus and relive the dreams of youth. Then, tell me what you think and how I can improve this project!

**The stunning cover image is by the brilliant artist Suhair Sibai. See more of her work here.

Tom Schutyser’s new book, “CARAVANSERAI – Traces, Places, Dialogue in the Middle East”

Both photo essay and travelogue, this stunning volume documents the caravanserais of the Levant region in the Middle East. Tom’s powerful photographs are illuminated by contributions from some of the most eminent writers, thinkers, and journalists specializing in the Middle East and foreign relations. The result is an engaging new perspective on both the history and current-day affairs of this region.

Photographs and texts by Tom Schutyser, Introduction by Andrew Lawler, Contributions by Reza Aslan, Rachid al-Daif, Robert Fisk, Dominique Moïsi, Paul Salem

The Spillover from the Syrian civil war will be much greater in Iraq than Lebanon.
by Joshua Landis, Syria Comment, Oct 28, 2012

Many Western journalists are based in Lebanon, few in Iraq. This explains why relatively small events in Lebanon get dramatic reporting and much larger increases of violence in Iraq, are largely overlooked or elicit little concern.

Already in response to the growing civil war in Syria, Iraqi violence has spiked and al-Qaida is resurgent there. Some days as many as 100 Iraqi Shiites are killed by al-Qaida bombings in Iraq.

The threat of spillover in Lebanon is minor compared to Iraq because the sects in Lebanon all acknowledge that none can rule the country without the others. Even the most powerful, the Shiites, readily confess that they have no chance of turning Lebanon into an Islamic republic because Lebanon has a form of democracy and the majority is against it. Not only do all the sects buy into the notion of power-sharing, they also know that in Lebanon it is impossible for one group to dominate on the others. They learned these simple truths from decades of barbaric fighting.

In Iraq, the sects have found no peace and little acceptance of the balance of power now being hammered out. Prime Minister Maliki is busy building a Shiite dictatorship and pushing out the remaining centers of Sunni power left behind by the Americans in their doomed attempt to promote power-sharing.

Al-Qaida is rebuilding in Iraq to contest Shiite power. It probably has the backing of a larger segment of the Sunni community that still chafes from its loss of fortune following the US destruction of Saddam Hussein’s regime. Unlike Lebanon, the various sects of Iraq have not found a modus-vivendi. Relations between Kurds and Arabs in Iraq are becoming more vexed as Kurdistan takes ever more steps to assert its independence from Arab Iraq.

The Sunni-led attempt to depose Assad’s regime is sure to give a big boost to Al-Qaida in Iraq as arms and men flow across the border and find a refuge in Syria. Saudi, Turkish and Qatari support for Syria’s Sunnis is also likely to turbo-charge passions in Iraq, as Sunnis feel empowered to push back against Iranian influence and the Shiite hold on power.

These are the reasons why Iraq is seeing much more spillover from Syria than Lebanon. Of course, there will be pushing and shoving between the sects in Lebanon, especially as the Sunnis grow in confidence and feel that they can tip the scales on the Shiite assertiveness of the last several years. But they have few delusions of being able to rule Lebanon on their own.

I leave you with this plum from today’s New York Times: An Iraqi Shiite who just returned from years in Damascus says:

“I can tell that things are going to be crazy in Syria,” he said. “It’s a sectarian war, and it’s even worse than the one we had here, which was between the militias and the political parties. In Syria, all of the people are involved. You can feel the hatred between the Sunnis and the Alawites. They will do anything to get rid of each other.”

On Monday, I will be giving a lecture at Duke’s Islamic Studies Center and on Tuesday, I will speak at the University of North Carolina

Intervening in Syria the right way
By François Heisbourg, Published: October 25, François Heisbourg is a special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research, a Paris-based think tank. PARIS

Successful military interventions are sufficiently rare as to induce utmost caution when contemplating the use of force in Syria, a country as populous as Iraq or Afghanistan and no less divided along religious and ethnic lines. Yet the legal, political, strategic and military conditions for an international operation are being fulfilled, which is in turn creating an opportunity to bring down Bashar al-Assad’s bloody dictatorship and its regionally destabilizing repression…..

From a strategic standpoint, the civil war in Syria is in a stalemate, with Assad’s forces unable to crush the rebellion and the insurgency militarily incapable of overthrowing the regime. A realistic objective of intervention would be to tilt the balance in favor of the rebel forces, to help expedite Assad’s fall. As in Libya, and unlike in Iraq, intervention would enable the rebellion, not be a substitute for it.

In military terms, this would be achieved by establishing a 50-mile no-fly zone along the Turkish-Syrian border. No allied aircraft would need to fly in Syrian airspace, as air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles fired from Turkish airspace and territory would have the necessary range to shoot down Syrian bombers or helicopters in the exclusion zone. Allied AWACS radar aircraft, operating well out of range of Syria’s extensive air defenses, would provide full real-time information on any regime aircraft approaching the no-fly zone.

The zone would include Aleppo, which means the regime’s bombardment of Syria’s largest city would cease. Its fall, along with unimpeded access to logistical support from Turkey, would give the insurgency the upper hand.

And with no boots on the ground, this intervention would not require an exit strategy.

Such an intervention is becoming desirable as well as feasible, for want of a better option. Letting the civil war fester will lead to further destabilization in Syria and the wider region — some of which is already visible in Lebanon and Jordan — and a radicalization of the conflict. Providing the rebels with weaponry, notably anti-aircraft missiles, raises the dread prospect of blowback, given our inability to control the ultimate destination of such transfers.

Of course, even an intervention of the kind suggested here won’t guarantee a positive and stable outcome in Syria, any more than the overthrow of Moammar Gaddafi meant that milk and honey were to flow in Libya. But the alternatives are worse. We also know that a heavy “boots on the ground” approach — as in Iraq or Afghanistan — is to be strenuously avoided.

Wayne White on NATO’s Arms to Syria Conundrum, Former top US intelligence mideast programs director Wayne White examines the arms to syria conundrum

Recent footage from Syria shows resistance fighters with shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile launchers. But those seen were Russian-style SA-7’s possessed by the Syrian army and many other Middle East militaries, rather than advanced US models like the FIM-92 Stinger.

The question of whether to provide arms to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is fighting a desperate battle against the Assad regime, remains a difficult and conflicted decision for the US and most other NATO countries. For some, sending arms to the FSA to bring an earlier end to the regime and the continuing bloodshed and destruction is a “no-brainer”. Others maintain that giving the rebels more (and perhaps better) arms would only contribute further to the overall mayhem that might not end for quite a long time regardless.

For those wishing to respond to rebel pleas for arms, Islamist extremists — scattered among the scores of militias and local contingents comprising the FSA — are a central concern. As the civil war has dragged on, there has been rising evidence of these extremists fighting alongside rebel fighters, especially in the north where foreign correspondents have far more access. Many are Syrians, but a number of them have been coming in from neighboring countries to fight as scattered contingents within the FSA (or perhaps merely to find yet another venue for “jihad” against an unpopular secular regime).

And there is real reason for concern among governments sympathetic to the opposition about arms falling into the wrong hands. It is, after all, difficult to determine who would be the ultimate recipient of munitions assistance once it passes into Syria. In a fluid environment with scores of FSA factions, militant groups might also construct deceptive liaisons to convey false assurances of moderation once they catch wind of selective distribution. Finally, in cities like Aleppo, a number of armed factions appear to be fighting alongside each other and might feel compelled to share munitions for mutual support and protection against regime attacks. The injection of surface-to-air missiles into this conflict is especially risky because they could end up in the hands of terrorist groups and be used against commercial airliners.

That said, anger is increasing among anti-regime elements within Syria over the failure of the West to provide armed assistance. Had arms been supplied to Syrian rebels considerably sooner, the number of Syrians embittered over the lack of tangible support from the outside, the vast extent of destruction wrought mainly by the regime’s aircraft and heavy weapons, and the number of militants arriving from neighboring countries might have been more limited before the fall of the Assad regime (which this writer assumes is highly likely). The palpable rise in anger toward major Western powers for withholding arms could alone render more Syrians toward anti-Western Islamist appeals.

This, in a nutshell, is the US and Western dilemma. Standing by without providing vital arms while the bloodshed continues will probably mean less sympathy and increasing militancy among the rebels over time. After all, more of them (and members of their families) are being killed and maimed because they lack proper arms and sufficient ammunition.

On the other hand, if the rebels gain access to considerable more arms (meaning militants too in many cases), anti-Western anger would likely abate. But the conflict has already gone on long enough to produce a problematic post-Assad scenario featuring more robust militias competing for power, along with perhaps even more ugly sectarian score-settling against Alawite and Christian minorities that have been supporting the regime. In fact, the great amount of infrastructure, commercial establishments and all manner of housing already destroyed by regime firepower will likely be the source of a potentially profound economic crisis that would generate a heavy measure of frustration, anger and recrimination over some years even after the fall of the regime.

Consequently, in terms of the available options at this late stage in the struggle, those governments agonizing over the pros and cons of providing arms might well perceive the choice as a sort of “Catch-22.” In the context of the argument on the positive side of the policy ledger that providing arms could bring a swifter defeat of the regime, there is one more possible plus. So far, major Syrian Army units have not chosen to defect en masse, probably because (in addition to the obvious regime-loyalty notion) many realize facing off against the regime would be considerably more dangerous than combating relatively lightly armed rebel contingents. Should, however, rebel forces become considerably more militarily formidable, that shift might trigger such defections and a change on the ground that could be more significant than what the rebels have achieved so far. That said, even if plenty of additional arms were provided, the FSA is unlikely to receive tanks, other armored vehicles and heavy artillery that could match regime capabilities because most rebel fighters are not army defectors and would not be able to operate these more complex weapon-systems nearly as effectively as the Syrian military. So, not only has the US evidently provided little or no arms to the Syrian opposition, Washington may well remain (like many other potential Western suppliers) quite conflicted with respect to doing so.

Wladimir van Wilgenburg writes

Dear Joshua,

You might want to read this latest report about Syrian Kurdish dynamics for the Henry Jackson Society.

It also shows the FSA-PYD dynamics. There was btw allegedly a fight between Jabhat Al Nusra and PYD/PKK, after there was a protest against the FSA-presence in Ashrafiyeh. The ‘FSA group’ fired at the demonstration, killing 5. The YPG/PKK/PYD now claim 19 were killed in revenge

Best regards, Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Freelance analyst/writer based in the UK/Iraq/Netherlands
http://www.rudaw.net/english/author/WWilgenburg/
http://www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablanttnewsstaffrelation_pi1[author]=523
http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/tag/wladimir-van-wilgenburg

Iraqi Sects Join Battle in Syria on Both Sides
By YASIR GHAZI and TIM ARANGO
NYTimes: October 27, 2012

BAGHDAD — Militant Sunnis from Iraq have been going to Syria to fight against President Bashar al-Assad for months. Now Iraqi Shiites are joining the battle in increasing numbers, but on the government’s side, transplanting Iraq’s explosive sectarian conflict to a civil war that is increasingly fueled by religious rivalry.

Some Iraqi Shiites are traveling to Tehran first, where the Iranian government, Syria’s chief regional ally, is flying them to Damascus, Syria’s capital. Others take tour buses from the Shiite holy city of Najaf, Iraq, on the pretext of making a pilgrimage to an important Shiite shrine in Damascus that for months has been protected by armed Iraqis. While the buses do carry pilgrims, Iraqi Shiite leaders say, they are also ferrying weapons, supplies and fighters to aid the Syrian government.

“Dozens of Iraqis are joining us, and our brigade is growing day by day,” Ahmad al-Hassani, a 25-year-old Iraqi fighter, said by telephone from Damascus. He said that he arrived there two months ago, taking a flight from Tehran….Abu Mohamed, an official in Babil Province with the Sadrist Trend, a political party aligned with the populist Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, said he recently received an invitation from the Sadrists’ leadership to a meeting in Najaf to discuss a pilgrimage to the shrine of Sayyida Zeinab, a holy Shiite site in Damascus.

 “We knew that this is not the real purpose because the situation is not suitable for such a visit,” he said. “When we went to Najaf, they told us it’s a call for fighting in Syria against the Salafis,” ultraconservative Sunni Muslims.

A senior Sadrist official and former member of Parliament, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that convoys of buses from Najaf, ostensibly for pilgrims, were carrying weapons and fighters to Damascus….Abu Sajad, who moved to Damascus in 2008 and joined the fight after the rebellion began, said he and other Iraqi fighters were indeed fighting to protect the shrine. A former fighter in Mr. Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Iraq, he said he was given weapons and supplies by the Syrian government.

But as the fight evolved, and Iraqis began to be killed and kidnapped, it reminded him too much of the Iraq he left, and so he recently returned to his home in Basra.

“I can tell that things are going to be crazy in Syria,” he said. “It’s a sectarian war, and it’s even worse than the one we had here, which was between the militias and the political parties. In Syria, all of the people are involved. You can feel the hatred between the Sunnis and the Alawites. They will do anything to get rid of each other.”

Iraqi Shiites did not initially take sides in Syria. Many Shiites here despise Mr. Assad for his affiliation with the Baath Party, the party of Saddam Hussein, and the support he gave foreign Sunni fighters during the Iraq war.

But as the uprising became an armed rebellion that began to attract Sunni extremists, many Shiites came to see the war in existential terms. Devout Shiites in Iraq often describe the Syrian conflict as the beginning of the fulfillment of a Shiite prophecy that presages the end of time by predicting that an army, headed by a devil-like figure named Sufyani, will rise in Syria and then conquer Iraq’s Shiites.

It was the bombing of an important shrine in Samarra in 2006 that escalated Iraq’s sectarian civil war, and many Iraqis see the events in Syria as replicating their own recent bloody history, but with even greater potential consequences.

Hassan al-Rubaie, a Shiite cleric from Baquba, the capital of Diyala Province, said, “The destruction of the shrine of Sayyida Zeinab in Syria will mean the start of sectarian civil war in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.”

More than 30 killed in Baghdad bomb blasts
Gulf Times – 28 October, 2012

Bombings on Shia neighbourhoods in Baghdad and a blast on an Iranian pilgrim bus killed more than 30 people yesterday, marring Iraqi celebrations of the second day of Eid al-Adha.

Two car bombs exploded yesterday, one ripping into a restaurant in the Shia stronghold of Sadr City and killing at least 23 people, police and hospital sources said.

“I was just selling fruit and we were surprised by a huge explosion on the other side of the street,” Hassan Falih Shami, a grocery stall owner near the site of the blast. “You can see pools of blood, the shoes and pieces of clothing.”

Hours earlier, a roadside bomb planted near an open-air market killed seven people, including three children at a playground. Another blast killed six people when it hit a bus carrying Iranian pilgrims to a Baghdad shrine, police and hospital officials said.

Turkey Reassesses Its Ties To Syria’s Opposition
By: Youssef al-Sharif posted on Thursday, Oct 25, 2012
Publisher: Al-Hayat (Pan Arab) (Translated and republished by al-monitor
Original Title: Ankara Crisis with Syrian Opposition and Adha Truce

Summary: Two months ago, political and media quarters in Turkey seemed optimistic about a possible change in Washington’s position on the Syrian crisis after the United States presidential election. Turkey backed Syria’s opposition after conflict broke out between the government and rebels, writes Youssef al-Sharif. But it has been a tumultuous relationship, and with a cease-fire looming, Turkey could have a change of heart.

They expected that Washington would start working on settling the issue, either by mobilizing the Friends of Syria group and exhorting them to create a safe zone in northern Syria, or by arming the opposition and providing it with financial, military and intelligence support in order to bring down the regime.

However, this optimism faded away and was replaced by tension and the exchange of missiles across the border with Syria. This optimism was also affected by the positions of the Syrian opposition, which is splintered both politically and militarily.

The image that all Turkish quarters had envisioned was that if a greater amount of Syrian opponents joined the Syrian National Council (SNC), which was supposed to overhaul its structure to attract more members, and if the opposition’s armed military on the ground were unified, then the stage would be set for the post-US elections period, which would witness a crucial move on the part of Washington.

However, the Turkish efforts in this regard were a complete fiasco. In fact, Ankara found itself facing a new — and perhaps more difficult — test in light of the Eid al-Adha truce project launched by UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi.

This project was perceived by many Turkish parties as a prelude to correct the track of the Turkish policy, after Turkey had lost hope in the Syrian opposition. Still, Turkey is clinging to the hope of overthrowing the regime of Bashar al-Assad, but it may have begun to reconsider its position and settle for a smaller piece of the new ruling pie in Syria.

In fact, the Istanbul visit by CIA Director David Petraeus in early September revived the old Turkish optimism.

According to sources within the Syrian opposition, Petraeus met with a number of Free Syrian Army (FSA) leaders and militant groups on the ground, including the FSA Unification Brigade, Abdulkadir Saleh, who made his first public appearance in Istanbul in conjunction with Petraeus’ visit.

Saleh announced that the opposition seized 70% of Aleppo and is working on unifying the ranks of the armed groups. He then announced the formation of the Free National Army, which is supposed to bring together all of the opposition’s armed militias. Afterwards, the free army’s military leaders were exhorted to move inside Syria to be able to closely watch and lead the operations on the ground, thus increasing talks about an important meeting held by the Free Syrian National Council in Doha.

For a while, it seemed that the main opposition parties responded to the Turkish move to unite their ranks in front of the American observer, but it was not long before this picture faded away, either due to Syrian tactics on the ground, which worked on dragging Turkey into the conflict by bombing its territory, or due to the Aleppo bombings, whose responsibility was claimed by al-Qaeda and which came as a fatal response to Turkey’s efforts to unify the military command of the opposition.

At first, articles were leaked to Western newspapers. They said the supply of arms to the FSA and armed groups has been stopped as a punishment for their failure to unite.

These articles were followed by accusations against specific Arab countries of financing jihadist and religious groups that didn’t fall under the auspices of the FSA in Syria. Then, there were official US and international statements that formally voiced their concern over the activity of “extremist” groups that are operating on the ground without allowing anyone to have any influence on their decisions or objectives.

It seemed that criticizing the performance of the opposition’s armed militias was tantamount, even if indirectly, to criticizing Ankara. Turkey bet on the scenario of a military settlement, despite the fact that it was the one refusing to provide the opposition with anti-tank weapons and other advanced anti-aircraft out of fear that these could fall into the hands of terrorist groups that might later use them against the interests of Turkey.

This is because Turkey is the most affected by the terrorists that are joining the confrontation, be they from al-Qaeda or from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Thus, Ankara faced difficulties in achieving its goal of directly overthrowing the Syrian regime militarily, and it seemed that its choice has cornered it and put it at the mercy of the actions of the Syrian political and armed opposition.

Meanwhile, it seemed like Damascus had more options to respond to this Turkish rationale. Consequently, it endeavored to drag Turkey into its war, and conveyed a message to its northern neighbor that it was making a mistake by thinking that the military option on the ground would be limited to within Syria’s borders.

Syria argued that al-Qaeda attacks, which increased in Aleppo, are in the interest of the Syrian regime at the political level, even if they harmed it at the military one.

Then, Turkey was shocked by the Syrian political opposition, which it had previously embraced, when the Syrian National Movement revealed documents that were reportedly leaked from the Syrian intelligence. According to these documents, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ordered the killing of two Turkish pilots after their reconnaissance aircraft was targeted near the Syrian coast and crashed into international waters. The pilots survived the incident.

Ankara believed that the disclosure of these documents was an attempt by the Syrian opposition to draw the Turkish army into a war against Syria or to embarrass the Turkish Justice and Development Party (AKP) government in public. This irritated the Turkish government and pushed it to adopt a sarcastic position toward these documents and to question their authenticity.

This incident, as well as the repeated attempts by the Syrian National Council to restructure itself, probably prompted Ankara to lose confidence in the Syrian opposition or at least to reconsider its calculations regarding the future of Syria.

Based on that, some Turkish observers believe that Turkey will go back on its previous positions regarding a military settlement on the ground.

They also say that Turkey has begun to accept middle solutions that allow a transitional government to emerge that include representatives of the regime as well as Chinese and Iranian interests, which would be similar to the “blocking third” government in Lebanon.

Then, Ankara’s conflict would change from a conflict with the Assad regime into a conflict with Assad in person. This was reflected in the proposal by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to allow Farouk al-Shara to manage the transitional phase, knowing that Shara was never enthusiastic about the Syrian-Turkish rapprochement.

This rapprochement, which began in 2004 and was not part of any harmonization and cooperation plan, maintained skepticism about Ankara’s intentions regarding this rapprochement with Damascus.

At that time, some Turkish observers believed that marginalizing Shara by appointing him vice president was a reason behind his position regarding Turkey.

Ankara — which previously announced its support for the Geneva statement and its reservations about imposing this statement on the Syrian opposition, and reaffirmed the need that the Syrian people choose the most appropriate solution to their crisis — is currently testing the Syrian opposition through the truce proposal to halt fighting during the Eid al-Adha holiday.

It is true that Ankara seemed to support this proposal and to use it as the foundation for discussion with Tehran — in the meeting between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Azerbaijan — and that Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutolgu formally called all parties in Syria to cease fire during the Eid holiday.

However, Turkey remains in an unenviable position, whatever the results of this call for a truce proposal. In fact, if the Syrian opposition complies with Brahimi’s proposal, the Syrian regime will increasingly accuse Turkey of controlling the armed opposition and logistically supporting it, even though this option may radically change the path of the conflict in Syria and turn it into a political dispute rather than a military one.

However, if the armed opposition rejects this proposal or is driven to fight back in response to the regime, Turkish efforts will be in vain and it will become clear to Turkish politicians that they cannot rely on the Syrian opposition.

Ankara is aware of these consequences, but it still preferred to support the truce proposal, knowing that the Syrian regime would not be committed to it and may seek to expand the conflict to the region.

This test and its outcomes will represent an important experience for Turkey, which is preparing to host Russian President Vladimir Putin in an official visit in early December. The visit is a true chance to harmonize their views regarding Syria, especially because it will follow the announcement of the winner in the US presidential elections.

This would make the Russian-Turkish dialogue more realistic, when the post-elections landscape becomes clear and Ankara determines its stance regarding the armed opposition on the ground.

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