Demonstrators in Homs

Ziadsouri: I just received bad news. A friend of mine lost his son last night in 7oms. He was a very good young man and a recent graduate of Mechanical Engineering. My friend told me his boy, just like the rest of population, had no hope for the future. My friend and family are in disbelieve. His oldest son, just 24 years, is gone because he dared to speak his mind. They all know who did it. The president’s (or his brother) men did it. They want justice. Does anyone here believe that justice will be served? BTW, my friend is a Christian and I am sure his boy was not an MB or a Wahabi. He was the future of Syria. This regime is killing our future.

MajdKhaldoun: We all know very well who did it, it is secret service,working through Shabbeeha,defending the regime, they all criminal, and their end is coming soon.

Aboud: Today the regime completely and irreversibly sealed its fate. Homs has now joined the list of massacres perpetuated by the regime, alongside Dar’a and Baniyas. …. Don’t you think that every Syrian wants to believe that the young men in our army are incapable of murdering their own people? Or that we don’t yearn to passionately believe in and rally behind a leader who has our interests at heart? Don’t you think that every mother, father, brother and sister in Syria wants to believe that a bright future lies just beyond the horizon? When SANA put forward credibly sounding explanations that the abuses in Biyada were actually in Iraq, I was relieved. I believed them BECAUSE I passionately wanted to believe that such things do not happen in Syria. So imagine my shock, dismay and hot white anger when their explanation was proven to be a pack of clumsy lies,….We want to believe, but the regime has given us nothing to believe in except clumsy lies. What do you regime apologists expect an entire country to believe in? Roaming cars of shadowy armed men gunning down civilians?

Norman: Welcome to the new banana Republic of Syria.

Dima: I have the feeling that Bashar Al-Assad will not make it this time. He has wasted 11 years in doing very little for the Syrians.

Paul: biggest challenge for the leadership will be the economy. i have no idea how they will be able to manage this challenge. banks are in trouble. the economy is in the freezer. i hear few are even going to work

Mina: Another reason why people are not in the streets is that compared to the income of their parents, people are far better off now than 50 years ago.

Munif: my first cousin had his wedding yesterday ( actually saturday evening) in Damascus. My mother came down from Beirut and my sister flew in from Dubai, It was at the Nubala’ hall/restaurant. They ate and danced and had a great time. He flew off to his honeymoon. My mother and sister said there was absolutely nothing to indicate that Syria has the issues we see on you tube and on the news.

Fadi: The Syrian TV everyday now is broadcasting clips or interviews of life going on as usual in Syria with a title “Damascus today”, “Latakia today”. These are most reassuring! They should play more of them. The contrast of these clips of people going about their daily life is an extreme contrast to the sensational youtube videos.

louai: my family lives in Homs Adawya …they can here the Mreja’s Mosque they are calling for Jihad !! my family is NOT mukhabarat so please open your heart and believe ..we all want reform we all want change but not throw those people ..i personally believe Assad and don’t even want a change that is calling for Jihad.

Mina: I can’t see how to stop the things getting uglier without announcing elections.

Dima: I am in Homs and I know what is going on here maybe we haven’t taped what happened because we were really frightened by the calls for “Jihad” we are not accustomed to these things you know Syria.. i think that all people …now who call for “Jihad” are “salafieen” they call the gradnchildren of “Omar and Abo Bakr” how can i doubt what i see and hear?? this means only that they call for civilian war and now they are threatening Christians (next Friday).. do you think that they are really demonstrators who call for freedom and reforms?? By the way, they call for “Imara” and “Khalifa”.. i am sorry for our media that we Syrian people know the truth and we are the victims but they are unable to broadcast this fact as they should.

Paul: My friend george ….. from aleppo is convinced that Muslim Brother types will take over should regime fall. He says that those who live abroad have no idea what its like. This is not to say that mistakes were not made and that things must and will change. The replacement will be infinitely worse. Of course he is biased. He is christian and he is doing well. But we spent hours discussing the situation. Democracy advocates do exist but they will all be swept away by the religious establishment as soon as regime falls.

Sophia: I lived six years of the civil war in Lebanon and that left me with a life long trauma. At the end, it is the people who will pay for this dangerous game. Don’t get me wrong. I am all for reforms and against dictatorships but because of my Lebanese experience, if I were to choose between a peaceful dictatorship and a civil war, I will not hesitate. Nothing good comes from a civil war. Civil war kills hope, security and rights.

Nadeem: The regime does not have many friends nor does the armed thugs using religion as a cover to bring Syria closer to civil war. I am shocked by the brutality of criminals in Homs who killed in cold blood three army officers and three children. If the revolution allows terrorists to infiltrate its ranks they will lose sympathy quickly and strengthen the regime claim that many protestors are simple thugs who want to kill and destroy. The brutality of security services is not a new story, we have known that for 50 years,the new story is the murderous behavior of assassins in Homs, and other places, who may eventually strip this revolution from its peaceful character and taint the memory of those who died in the name of freedom. Expect the army and the security forces to use more force now,and that is exactly what those thugs want.

Paul: I think that history will be very unkind on the baath and this past 48 years. honestly, even if you wanted to destroy a country on purpose, you could not do a worse job. A bunch of ignorant, uneducated, arrogant, bloody, ruthless peasants in charge of a country for 48 years. a habibi. Over 80% of Homs today is inhabited by the flood if farmers who saw their lands destroyed by the incompetent policies of the Ba’ath.

Why Discuss: It is amazing how easily the common Syrians are blindly playing into the sectarian master plan without realizing that they are intoxicated by the illusion of an elusive freedom and a better future. How bitterly desillusionned they’ll be when they’ll wake up.

Amir from Tel Aviv: This regime is over. Nothing can save it now. Let me predict that by January 2012, Bashar is either in prison or in exile (London? Tehran? Tel Aviv?).

NZ: Look in the dictionary for “dignity”, “freedom”, “nepotism” and “corruption”. What is good for you is good for all.

Mr. President: I think the only solution is to wait until civil war begins and shows its real danger and pain to the majority Syrians and the world, move the army to crush it. Just as Assad senior did in Lebanon and Hama civil wars. As long as Syria keeps its loyal army intact and safe from western powers all will still be manageable.

Riad: Yes the regime is corrupt and yes the security forces are brutal, but can anybody with a straight face deny the obvious: the demonstrators are being infiltrated by thugs and terrorists. That is why Homs suffered tremendous destruction in the last 3 days. No country should allow armed gangs to spread terror and chaos, and this include both Shabiha and anti-government criminals. We need uniformed security officers and the regular army to protect us from both. Enough blood shed and enough destruction. most of my non Syrian friends are asking how Syrians can trust these groups if the regime is toppled. Syrians showed the world that they are brave but some Syrians broadcasted our third world status to a mostly unsympathetic audience. Good luck seeing any foreign money or tourism coming to Syria any time soon. I hope democracy and freedom banners can feed the hungry or bring jobs to the unemployed.

Revlon: Stories of mutiny have been substantiated. The allegiance of Armed forces, including the supposedly loyal Republican Guards to the Regime, in their confrontation with unarmed rising public, is precarious at best. It does not apply to the rank and file, who belong to the numerical majority of the Syrian people. The threat of wider mutiny, may explain the quantitatively and qualitatively limited involvement of Army in the current confrontation.

Souri: There is no need to say an “Alawi race.” I don’t think the Alawis can in any way be called a different race from the Sunnis. The Alawis used to live in Aleppo, Latakia, Tripoli, etc and they fled to the mountains only during the crusades. …. Before the crusades, most people in Syria were Chrisitan, Alawi, or Shia. The Sunnis were a minority in Syria. The Sunnis became a majority during the Ayyubid and Mamluke wars against the Crusaders. Sick religious scholars like Ibn Taymiyyah tried to take advantage of the wars against the crusaders and they convinced the Mamluke rulers to exterminate the Shia and the Alawis. Many of the racist prejudices that Sunnis hold on the Alawis were invented by this mentally sick scholar.

Husam: A month passed and Damascus and Aleppo are largely silent. This means a lot. The regime will build on this and I hope that we see positive and meaningful measures by the government to build trust. … I want deep changes in the security leadership and the removal of many figures that hurt Bashar and the country including his top aides and a crackdown on Shabiha. The only way to keep Damascus and Aleppo on Bashar’s side is to enforce security and end albaath and mukhabarat unchecked authority.

Australian-Syrian: We just got a call from my aunty in Tartous. She said that at night they fear leaving their homes as Sunnis from the Hamidieh (not sure if i spelt that right) area outside Tartous are attacking them.

Souri: Assad was doing much better in the first few weeks than now. The course events are taking now does not bode well for him. My expectation is that the demonstrations will keep growing and growing …. I don’t really know what Assad is waiting for, but if he does not start dealing decisively with these demonstrations soon, this will make me suspect that he has decided to pursue a “local solution” for the Alawites…. The regime dealt harshly with the insurgents in Latakia and Banyas, but has not done the same in Deraa and Homs. This raises my suspicion about the possibility that the regime may prefer a local solution for the Alawites over an all-out civil war.

Vedat: The real problem for Bashar Assad is that his proclamations are starting to seem meaningless. ….I wonder how this must make him appear to those around him? Surely this is not lost on those in the military who worry about there own survival. The possibilities of a military coup should not be dismissed.

Zoubaida: I read your blog for years. Now I have to say it is over and I can’t take it anymore. I can’t read one more word about Syria you publish. I am going to unsubscribe, just like canceling my Facebook and shutting the TV. I did the same after 9/11. I couldn’t hear anymore. This is a nightmare and it is not ending. I hope God will prove you all wrong and that after the people causing this destruction to Syria get the freedom they want, we, the people get to keep the Syria we love. A Syria that is not part of a Great Israel or greater Turkey. Not part of a Irani / Iraqi Empire or Muslim brotherhood kingdom. I don’t know if prayers are heard but I am praying to God to prove you all wrong. None of you really care about Syria the place or the Syrian people. None of you care to preserve the little we have. We want our Syria back and away from your news. May God prove you all wrong, may God save and protect Syria.

A Damascus Cameo
By a Friend in Damascus
April 17, 2011

The Syrian turmoil is a surprising and challenging experience for Bashar and his governmental disciples. Over the last few weeks, Damascus has witnessed immense and eager protests in support of the current regime, while reports of uprisings calling for freedom, release of political prisoners and ends to corruption also spring in different quarters of cities all over Syria including Damascus. Security personnel have shaped the response to these pro-freedom rallies with the use of weaponry and brutality. Media notarization of the events has also been curtailed by the state; many foreigners in Damascus are seen as conspicuous agents propagating a falsified image of the turmoil in Syria. Further, the state and Syrian media have continually declared that foreign media in hand with foreign and sectarian entities have created plots to spark unrest in civil society. Thus, the blame has continually been on external agents whom would benefit if the country were to go up in flames and see the dynasty and the Arab heart of the Middle East crumble. Syria’s defiant position against Israel and America validate its argument for many Syrians, especially those in Damascus.

The pro-Bashar spirit in Damascus is a force to reckon with. There are numerous reports that these protests are fabricated by the state, however, it is undeniable that many of the populace abide and adore their current president. Many believe he is a true reformer but the governmental parameters of his operation impede his ability to rejuvenate Syrian economy and society.  It is also factual that many configurations to Syrian society have developed since his inception of the presidency in 2000; examples can be the economic liberalization policies that have allowed many to thrive economically with the opening of international banking and investment services and free trade economic agreements with its neighbors. These reforms have loosened the formerly nationalized country and it has opened up a platform of modernization and liberalization of Syrian society. Hence, many of the peoples whom have gained from these policies and reforms glorify and applaud the president in face of the restrictive experience they witnessed under his father, Hafez Al-Assad.

On the other end of the spectrum, these pro-Bashar rallies also evoke a sense of persuasion, coercion and sense of fear. In the streets of Damascus since the past Friday, many cars honk and blast nationalistic songs, almost all commercial spaces have attached posters and flags of the president to show their loyalty. If you are not part of the festivities, it somehow radiates you in the space. As an example, many block main streets by parking their cars horizontally, thereafter the people start to dance, chant and hold flags to show their belonging to the presidency. Thus, all the congestion and all the parades are deliberately trying to remove people from the vehicles and join them for their theatrics; it becomes an imposition. A young Damascene who was driving in the streets discussed during an evening where the major rallies were going on for Bashar, some protesters slapped posters on his car and gave him flags to carry or attach on his car because his vehicle was lacking these pro-regime artifacts.

On Tuesday the 29^th of March, all Syrian schools, public and governmental agencies, and members of the public were given the day off to join in on the protests that were summoned as the day of Bashar, hundred of thousands of people came to protest in Damascus, Aleppo and Homs in jubilation of the regime and president. This governmental strategy presents a deliberate measure taken by the government to force people to take part in the protests; further, the Syrian media and officials alike hail these protests. This was the day before Bashar’s first public speech due to the unrest.

For the last week on a daily basis the Syria channel has been showing a urban diary of cities all over Syria, where people continually advise and discuss that matters and processes in the city as all very normal and everyone is devout to the regime, and that they patronize those victims of these external forces or ‘devil whispers’ as the Syrian TV channel described. The Syrian channel continuously proposes that this unrest is only due to sectarian and foreign agents trained to create unrest in Syria. Groups from Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, America, Palestine and Iraq have been blamed for trying to create instability. A recent article published by SANA, the Syrian news agency, discusses that Amir Bandar, the former Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to America, and Jeffery Feltman have financed and created a organized plot to overthrow and destabilize the Syrian regime.

Foreign media is also seen as another agent that is exaggerating and creating malfeasance to the Syrian stability. As an example, On the 29^th of March pro-regime protesters threatened to storm the Al-Jazeera news building in Damascus if they were not shown on the Al-Jazeera screen because, according to them, the news agency was not showing a just picture of the happenings because they are in much appreciation and diligence to the current regime. On the 16^th of April, yet again many Damascenes gathered outside Al-Jazeera news stations offices in Damascus and claimed these media corporations are creating sedition and subversion about the events in Syria. Al-Arabiya and BBC Arabic are also targeted as propagators of the events in Syria.

It is clear that Syria is at a divide now, although the commonality between these divisions held is reform. Many people in Damascus are very much in support of the regime but there are many questions about their honesty in the way they showcase it. As an example, the student rallies that happened at Damascus University were all wearing black hooded sweaters, but underneath the sweater students wore t-shirts that read “we love you Bashar”, in this manner if security was to come to detain and disperse the student protesters they would show them the t-shirts which would provide security with no reason for imprisonment or abolishment of the protest. Certain measures taken by the regime have enforced people to partake in these rallies to solidify the regime’s position, further, the extensive use of nationalistic artifacts and symbols has also created a sense of you are with or against the regime. The word on Damascus streets is that if a person is to be part of the planned protests, they are considered against the regime and an enemy to the stability and position of Syria. It is clear a policy of divide and conquer/control is being implemented here. Syria has continually advised that unrest is due to external agents but there is also a certain strategy that is creating a sense of brainwashing and mainstreaming the population into propaganda media and belief that is only fostering divisions and challenging the harmony of Syria. Many billboards and posters have surfaced all over Syria warning of sedition. One particularly interesting poster is one warning people of men posing and hoaxing as Syrian security personnel whom are shooting at civilians.  Others read “no to disturbance and all for Syrian unity”.

It is quite undeniable that now the majority of people in Damascus resent those protesting. A Syrian local said “I hope 500 die or even 1,000, how dare they challenge our country and be a victim of these plots to demonize Arabs”, he later added “If they give me a choice I would have no problem killing these shaabi (popular) animals, I cannot believe they dared to come in and walk in al-sham (Damascus)”. Protesters from Douma, a Damascus suburb, tried to march all the way into the center of Damascus to reach Al-Abassiyeen Square on the 15^th of April, this march aggravated many people in Damascus. He lastly added how was John McCain able to prove that on Friday many protests were to be held in cities all over Syria in his announcement on Thursday the 15^th, this statement only combusted to the wide-held Syrian belief that the unrest is a planned external strategy. Many now believe, even anti-government or pro-freedom lobbies that Syria is under threat of armed groups that have been able to mobilize clashes in Syria, maybe not at the start of the events but have infiltrated along the month of Syrian instability. Al-Tayar il Mustaqbal, a political Sunni group from Lebanon has been declared by Syrian officials as smugglers of weapons and sending trained people to trigger upset in the Syrian street. Further, other reports of Khaddami loyalists have influenced the dynamic events of Baniyas, Khaddam’s hometown. Syrian media and TV channels are persistently showing footage of weapons and people that Syrian security apparatus has recovered since the inception of the unrest; most of it validating external forces is shaping up the unfolding events in Syria.

The picture gets more perplexing when the flow of information is curtailed and expelling of journalists is a common tactic. The main fright in Damascus, whether anti or pro government, is if the Muslim Brotherhood was to take precedence in the governing sphere. Given the volatile history between the Muslim Brotherhood and the general restrictive operation of Sunni Islam under the Assad dynasty, this alarm is substantiated. The lack of transparency and ongoing complexity of the turmoil make the mood eerie and paranoid, as there is a major lack in defining or understanding the events in Syria. Everyone hears various opinions or facts about the unrest, “it leaves everyone conscious that they are manipulated and part of a massive propaganda machine”, as one humble Syrian citizen said.

Lots of deaths in Homs today. Still trying to sort out who is responsible for the killing.

From a Reader:

Dear Joshua,

I am an avid reader of your blog, especially during these times, with the questionable news reports and media coverage. I have few comments about the recent updates in the situation in Syria. While I agree with you that the speech sounded very positive, and I think that President Assad did a good job approaching the situation. However, I would like to reference the progressive course of events, local reactions, and long term considerations. Admittedly, there is a large population in Syria that does not support the regime, but they would prefer stability, and a safer Syria. They believe that sectarian strife will take over Syria if these protests are to continue. Therefore, this group will find the president’s speech promising, and they will conclude that the protests should be over now. They are mostly upper-middle class city residents. The rest of the angry people will not see the speech as promising. At this point, expressed by many close friends in Syria, they do not take Assad’s seriously, nor do they believe true Assad promises will yield a lift for the emergency life. Their evidence is the continuous crack down on the protesters after the speech today. One of my close friends in Homs stated that over 25 people were killed today. He went to the hospital to donate blood, and the security forces forbade him and many others from doing so. Another close friend, who is currently in Daraa on his military service, has reported serious divisions in the military. He said that soldiers are being moved from their original bases to other parts of the country, because they did not follow orders.

Generally, the atmosphere continues to be extremely tense. I have observed friends move from one side to the other, and I think the opposition is growing slowly but surely. Assad’s move was in the right direction. But if he does not stop the killings, it will not ring true. Young people have changed after these events in Syria. When the protests began, I had a firm belief that Syria is not ready to revolt against the regime. The youth were not politically engaged. Political life, as you know, was not a part of the daily discourse. I think young people are getting a crash course of political engagement. The opposition is moving from the most desperate groups, to the college students, intellectuals, etc. It is no longer limited in the country side as we have been observing before.

Basically, I think the few next days are going to be very essential in the future of this movement. Assad’s effort are appearing more genuine. Will it convince people who are witnessing a wave of political empowerment? Will they forget the intensive killings? Will the military stand strong? According to local people, their answer is no.

Finally, many thanks to you efforts to keep us updated on this situation. I am a young Syrian. I am not pro the regime, but I am looking at things critically.

A friend driving from Hama to Banyas on small roads reports that:

“it was like every village had there own checkpoint, some very friendly, some kind of shady, all wanting to see i.d. Don’t know why they were so nervous, and downright unfriendly in some towns. But today in the mountains near Qadmus (and we went down to some 30 km before Banyas) people were a lot more easy-going.

U.S. secretly backed Syrian opposition groups, cables released by WikiLeaks show

The State Department has secretly financed Syrian political opposition groups and related projects, including a satellite TV channel that beams anti-government programming into the country, according to previously undisclosed diplomatic cables.

The London-based satellite channel, Barada TV, began broadcasting in April 2009 but has ramped up operations to cover the mass protests in Syria as part of a long-standing campaign to overthrow the country’s autocratic leader, Bashar al-Assad…

Barada TV is closely affiliated with the Movement for Justice and Development, a London-based network of Syrian exiles. Classified U.S. diplomatic cables show that the State Department has funneled as much as $6 million to the group since 2006 to operate the satellite channel and finance other activities inside Syria. The channel is named after the Barada River, which courses through the heart of Damascus, the Syrian capital.

The U.S. money for Syrian opposition figures began flowing under President George W. Bush after he effectively froze political ties with Damascus in 2005. The financial backing has continued under President Obama, even as his administration sought to rebuild relations with Assad….

The cables, provided by the anti-secrecy Web site WikiLeaks, show that U.S. Embassy officials in Damascus became worried in 2009 when they learned that Syrian intelligence agents were raising questions about U.S. programs. Some embassy officials suggested that the State Department reconsider its involvement, arguing that it could put the Obama administration’s rapprochement with Damascus at risk.

Syrian authorities “would undoubtedly view any U.S. funds going to illegal political groups as tantamount to supporting regime change,” read an April 2009 cable signed by the top-ranking U.S. diplomat in Damascus at the time. “A reassessment of current U.S.-sponsored programming that supports anti-[government] factions, both inside and outside Syria, may prove productive,” the cable said.

It is unclear whether the State Department is still funding Syrian opposition groups, but the cables indicate money was set aside at least through September 2010. While some of that money has also supported programs and dissidents inside Syria, The Washington Post is withholding certain names and program details at the request of the State Department, which said disclosure could endanger the recipients’ personal safety.

….

But no dissidents inside Syria were willing to take the money, for fear it would lead to their arrest or execution for treason, according to a 2006 cable from the U.S. Embassy, which reported that “no bona fide opposition member will be courageous enough to accept funding.”

Around the same time, Syrian exiles in Europe founded the Movement for Justice and Development. The group, which is banned in Syria, openly advocates for Assad’s removal. U.S. cables describe its leaders as “liberal, moderate Islamists” who are former members of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Barada TV

It is unclear when the group began to receive U.S. funds, but cables show U.S. officials in 2007 raised the idea of helping to start an anti-Assad satellite channel.

People involved with the group and with Barada TV, however, would not acknowledge taking money from the U.S. government.

“I’m not aware of anything like that,” Malik al-Abdeh, Barada TV’s news director, said in a brief telephone interview from London.

Abdeh said the channel receives money from “independent Syrian businessmen” whom he declined to name. He also said there was no connection between Barada TV and the Movement for Justice and Development, although he confirmed that he serves on the political group’s board. The board is chaired by his brother, Anas.

“If your purpose is to smear Barada TV, I don’t want to continue this conversation,” Malik al-Abdeh said. “That’s all I’m going to give you.”…

Wikileak: BEHAVIOR REFORM: NEXT STEPS FOR A HUMAN RIGHTS STRATEGY Syria

This cable represents a follow-up to “Re-engaging Syria: Human Rights” (ref A) and outlines ongoing civil society programming in the country, primarily under the auspices of the Bureau of Human Rights and Labor (DRL) and the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI).

….As the Syria policy review moves apace, and with the apparent collapse of the primary Syrian external opposition organization, one thing appears increasingly clear: U.S. policy may aim less at fostering “regime change” and more toward encouraging “behavior reform.” If this assumption holds, then a reassessment of current U.S.-sponsored programming that supports anti-SARG factions, both inside and outside Syria, may prove productive as well.

3. (C) The U.S. attempt to politically isolate the SARG raised stumbling blocks to direct Embassy involvement in civil society programming. As a result, the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) and the Bureau of Human Rights and Labor (DRL) took the lead in identifying and funding civil society and human rights projects. Though the Embassy has had direct input on a few of these efforts, especially with DRL, most of the programming has proceeded without direct Embassy involvement….

In addition to these programs, the Embassy provided input on DRL grants awarded to Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), International War and Peace Reporting (IWPR), and The International Research and Exchange Board (IREX). Though Post does not directly monitor any of these programs, we have appreciated the opportunity to meet with representatives of CIPE and IWPR. —MEPI —

5. (C) In addition to smaller local grants, MEPI sponsors eight major Syria-specific initiatives, some dating back to 2005, that will have received approximately USD 12 million by September 2010. A summary of MEPI produced material on these programs follows:

-Aspen Strategic Initiative Institute, “Supporting Democratic Reform” (USD 2,085,044, December 1, 2005 – December 31, 2009). The institute, situated in Berlin, works with indigenous and expatriate reform-oriented activists and has sponsored conferences in international locations that brought together NGO representatives, media, and human rights activists from the Middle East, Europe, and the U.S., XXXXXXXXXXXX. MEPI noted that “while this program has offered little intrinsic value and will not likely be continued beyond the terms of the grant, XXXXXXXXXXXX.

-Democracy Council of California, “Civil Society Strengthening Initiative (CSSI)” (USD 6,300,562, September 1, 2006 – September 30, 2010). “CSSI is a discrete collaborative effort between the Democracy Council and local partners” that has produced XXXXXXXXXXXX “various broadcast concepts” set to air in April. -Regents of the University of New Mexico, “The Cooperative Monitoring Center-Amman: Web Access for Civil Society Initiatives” (USD 949,920, September 30, 2006 – September 30, 2009). This project established “a web portal” and training in how to use it for NGOs. MEPI noted, “this program has been of minimal utility and is unlikely to be continued beyond the term of the grant.” XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX

International Republican Institute (IRI), “Supporting Democratic Reform” (USD 1,250,000, September 30, 2006 August 31, 2009). “The project supports grassroots public awareness campaigns and the conduct and dissemination of public opinion polling research. XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX

-MEPI has also proposed continued programming for IRI and the CIPE, as well as supporting independent journalists through joint efforts with NEA/PI.

Challenge Ahead: Programming In Syria

6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX

7. (S) Regarding the most sensitive MEPI-sponsored programs in Syria, Post has had limited visibility on specific projects, due in no small measure to SARG-imposed constraints. XXXXXXXXXXXX Through the intermediary operations of the Movement for Justice and Development (MJD) (ref B), a London-based moderate Islamist group, MEPI routes money XXXXXXXXXXXX. Our understanding is that the aforementioned Democracy Council grant is used for this purpose and passes the MEPI grant money on to the MJD.

8. (S) XXXXXXXXXXXX 9. (S) XXXXXXXXXXXX The SARG would undoubtedly view any U.S. funds going to illegal political groups as

(Reuters) –

Syrian security forces opened fire on protesters at a funeral on Sunday, witnesses said, and an announcement that President Bashar al-Assad would lift 48-years of emergency rule failed to quell fury on the streets.

Two witnesses said security forces killed three mourners when they opened fire on a funeral for a man killed the day before, which turned into a demonstration on a highway outside the town of Talbiseh, north of the central city of Homs.

One resident said he counted five tanks and saw soldiers wearing combat gear deployed around the town.

Chants at protests on Sunday, Syria’s Independence Day holiday, more hostile toward Assad than at previous marches held in recent weeks, a sign that a promise to lift the country’s hated emergency law had failed to appease the public.

Opposition figures say they believe new laws that will replace the emergency rule are likely to retain severe curbs on political freedoms.

Thousands of demonstrators called for Bashar’s overthrow at another funeral, held in Hirak town northeast of the southern city of Deraaa, for soldier Mohammad Ali Radwan al-Qoman, whose relatives believe he was tortured by the security forces.

“Freedom, freedom Syria, Bashar get out,” people chanted, their slogans audible in a telephone call with one of the mourners at the funeral….

American Thinker: President Bashar al-Assad’s Strategic Mistake, By Patrick J Howie, April 17, 2011

The lessons from the most recent uprisings, as well as from uprisings throughout history indicate that, by offering the promise of reform, President Assad has made a strategic error that will ultimately lead to his downfall.

This is not to say that Assad will lose power immediately, for he has shown a willingness to use significant force against his people. But his recent actions all but guarantee that reform will happen; it is just a matter of time. President Assad’s mistake is quite simple — he acknowledged the arguments of the reformers. Though seemingly innocuous, this was a significant mistake. By promising reform, even if he doesn’t mean it, President Assad has implicitly validated to the Syrian people that the arguments of the democratic reformers have merit….

Syria’s new Minister of the Economy says, “Our Goal is to Raise the Standard of Living of the Citizen – And we will raise it by any means.”

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???? ?????? ?? ????? ???????? “??? ??????? ?? ???? ??????? ????? ???????? ??????? ??? ????????? ?????? ?? ???? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?? ??? ??????? ??? ???? ??????? ?????? ???? ???????”.

???? ?????? “?????? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ????????”? ?????? “?? ???? ????? ??????? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? ??????? ?? ?????? ???????? ??????? ???????”.

????? ??? ????????? ??? ????? ????????? ??? ??? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??? ?????? “????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ??????? ???????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? ???????”.

????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? “?? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ?????????? ??? ???? ??? ????? ??? ??????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ??????? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ????? ???????? ???? ???? ?????????”.

Reuters: Sunday, April 17, 2011

“They have to have economies that are going to grow 8 percent a year just to sustain unemployment levels,” said Molly Williamson, a former senior U.S. diplomat and defense official. “It’s sort of an ‘Oh, shit’ moment for everyone.” “Area stretching from North Africa to Pakistan would have to create at least 8 million jobs a year just to keep joblessness at current levels — over five times the number of jobs created in the United States in a year.”That’s not going to happen. No matter what regime is in power there is going to be a substantial amount of dissatisfaction”

Nir Rosen’s article on  Sectarianism in the Arab World – Part 1 is Here: Part 2 is Here: Here is the part about Syria:

….Meanwhile demonstrations started in Dar‘a, a Syrian border town close to Jordan. Its residents are chicken farmers or else they work in the Gulf. The town has a history of smuggling. Now demonstrations have spread and the government has responded as harshly as others in the region, killing dozens. Sunnis are the majority in Syria and the regime has crushed the Muslim Brotherhood in the past. They spread to other parts of Syria and the regime responded clumsily and brutally, with violence and the usual accusations of foreign conspiracies. While it is not inevitable, it is very possible that a sectarian civil war will break out in Syria, with all the bloodletting of Iraq. I believe it is likely, should the Syrian regime collapse, and almost guaranteed given the regime’s response to demonstrations. In the end, each side in the confrontation will be increasingly identified with a sect, as in Bahrain.

Across the border, Jordan has a very large proportion of Salafis with a strong social base. Many are jihadists and hate Shiites. Jordanian jihadists who had fought in Afghanistan and Iraq told me that they expected the final battle to occur in Sham, historic Syria. I’ve head the same thing from jihadi Salafis in Lebanon and Iraq. They view the ‘Alawite-dominated Syrian regime as a government of infidel Nuseiris. Sectarian Sunnis in Syria would find it easy to smuggle in weapons from Jordan or Lebanon or simply to reverse the smuggling routes into Iraq’s Anbar province. This could lead to tensions with Hizballah in Lebanon and with the regime in Iraq. Civil war in Syria will spread to Lebanon. Syria is home to both important Sunni and Shiite holy places. Leading Sunni cleric al-Qaradawi gave a sermon on 25 March condemning a Syrian raid on a mosque, which killed opposition demonstrators. The Syrian people treated ‘Alawite Syrian President Asad like he was a Sunni, al-Qaradawi said, but Asad was a prisoner of his entourage and his sect. The ‘Alawite sect controls the government and security forces, Qaradawi added.

The Syrian regime still has means in its disposal to placate demonstrators and control the disparate opposition groups. It has released prisoners, including Islamists, and initiated reforms. And holding back a civil war in Syria might be the knowledge, on all sides, of how bloody it could get. But so far the revolutions have proven impossible to stop, and in Syria it may be impossible to halt the sectarian dynamic that will ensue.

Increasingly even secular Arab Sunnis have adopted the extremist Wahabi views of Shiites. Coexistence is becoming impossible. And when the confrontation happens then the intolerant schools of Islam, such as the Salafis and Wahhabis, will dominate and become the universal Sunni vision of Shiites. Sunnis and Shiites alike are thinking of the conflict more and more as a regional one, with national borders meaning less. There is more violence to come.

Jihad and Sectarianism

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A friend comments about the above quote from Syria Steps which claims that several mosques in Homs called for “jihad”.

Yes I won’t be surprised. A combination of Qaradawi, MB efficiently active online topped with lack of action and stupid spin by the regime when 3alawi militias (or shabbiha) attack the Sunni village of Baida with videos spreading with claims that the militants who humiliated the peasants there verbally attacked the Sa7aba [The Sahaba are the companions of the Prophet but in this context it means the the rightly guided Caliphs with the exception of Ali, who the Shiites revere. JL]. I blame the regime and only the regime for letting this to go sectarian in some places. Its lack of swift reaction to (or complicity in) the atrocities is to blame.

Muslim Brothers General Guide, Riyad al-Shaqfa, says, “We are among those directing the demonstrations in Syria and participating in them and we will not stop them until the regime falls…..

April 3, 2011 Muslim Brotherhood.

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???? ?????? : ??? ?? ???? ????????? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ? ????????? ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????????? ?????? ??????? ?? ?????

Aboud writes:

Fadi, your entire line of discussion is irrelevant. So far the MB have not figured prominently in these protests. They organize nothing, they mobilize no one. Almost all the chants you hear in the streets are calls for freedom and support for the besieged people of Dar’a and Baniyas….

When we see evidence of the MB becoming a prominent force in these demonstrations, then we can discuss the pros and cons of their ideology. But so far, the only role they seem to have is as an invention of the state media, as an ever-present bogy-man.

Sophia writes:

We have to stop being innocents or faking innocence. There will be many acts of revenge perpetrated … I deeply empathize with the plight of those who want change in Syria, but I think their revolution will be hijacked.

The US implemented democracy in Iraq with more than 150000 troops on the ground and because of the continuing sectarian divide look what democracy means in Iraq today:

A Druze kid:

“Nobody is leading us, nobody is making us go to the street,” said Alaa, 24, an English student in As Suwayda who joined the demonstrations for the first time last week. The authorities “are trying to make it religious. But we are not moved by religion. We are moved by freedom, by our sense of humanity.”

Now that he has demonstrated once, he said, he will keep going. “Maybe I will get killed, maybe my brother will get killed,” he said. “But we will not stop.”

The president’s speech yesterday was about a good as Bashar al-Assad could have done. If Assad’s first speech did him no favors, this one served him well. I was apprehensive at first when I saw him speaking without a written script, as he does not seem to have a professional speech writing staff that he trusts. But ultimately he was well served to show his personality, which can be appealing. He was straight forward, serious and showed a studied understanding of the country’s problems and his regime’s short comings. He began by recognizing the “fajwa” or gap that separates the people from the regime. This may have been the single most important line of his talk. The rest was to explain why that gap existed and what he would do to close it. He spoke about the “karama” or dignity of the people – also very important.

We had all been watching the video of the hateful way that the men of al-Bayda near Banyas had been treated by the security agents from the neighboring town. They were laid face down in the central square of the town and trampled on by the security forces who accused them of being “khowna” or traitors.

President Assad apologized for the blood that had been spilled. He said that all the fallen – both security and protesters – were martyrs.

He then went on to outline the many serious  problems the country faces – poverty, joblessness, corruption, state institutions that are unresponsive to peoples needs, etc. He showed a keen understanding of the problems he faces.

Many will brush this speech off as being simply “more of the same.” There was no promise of regime-change or of political reforms that could be tantamount to regime change, such as deleting article 8 of the constitution that would eliminate the Baath party’s monopoly on power. It will not be enough to head off new protests, which activists said reached their biggest numbers just the day before when a column of tens of thousands marched from the Damascus suburbs in a bold effort to occupy one of the capital’s central squares. They were beaten back by security forces on Friday night, witnesses said.

“He is repeating an old speech, this is nothing new,” said Razan Zeitouneh, an activist with the Syrian Human Rights Information Link. “He mentioned dignity several times, but he didn’t mention who it is violating the people’s dignity.”

For those who continue to believe in the possibility of reform and not regime-change, this speech was reassuring. It may keep the silent majority from joining the protesters – at least for the time being.

Here are the views given by a number of commentators directly following the President’s speech:

Majed: I liked the speech but I simply do not trust the regime, we have to wait and see. No violence and no sectarian slogans please. We are all Syrians .

Rami: I will be happy when all political prisoners are released and other measures promised becoming the law of the land. People want maher acting as the brother of the president ,not as a military commander,and asef serving as a brother in law,and not as a spy chief,and rami focusing on spending his money instead of making more at the expense of syrians. Bashar is probably the least violent and the least corrupt but his family needs to leave us alone.things may finally be on the right track but it is too early to celebrate .

Fadi: The speech today may have returned the regime close to the place it was at before the first speech in terns of popularity but the work start now. People are watching closely. They felt their power and will not tolerate the old 1-step-forward 2-steps-back approach anymore.

Nadik: Today is a historic day. The president was perfect. Abous chawarbak ya bashar. If he actually follow through with the polictical reforms and allow press and demonstration we can say this is the beginning of a real baath. Thank you the heros of Daraa. again, you gave your blood for the freedom of syria. I want to point to 2 very positive signals in the speech.

1. He mentioned the mouamara but then dismiseed focusing on it and said the right thing is to focus on people demand and that will combat the mouamara.
2. He used the word karama many time and this is a key demand.  Recognising this is the beginning of dialog.

Majhool: The people will not stop protesting until

1. All political prisoners are out
2. Illegal Security forces dismantled.
3. Syriatel stripped away from Makhlouf
4. Atef Najeeb punished, preferably a capital punishment.
5. Allowing all exiled syrians to come back.
6. No More Baath.

Assad hinted that demonstrations will be considered sabotage once reforms are enacted. People will not accept that threat, until the average joe is 1000% convinced that the government is sincere they will continue on.

Naji: good coverage of ALL the key points that needed to be addressed and answered almost all the demands of the protests (except article 8 of the constitution)in a serious measurable way…! Chapeau…for now! At least he indicated that he knew the actual problems and what’s needed to immediately address them… Now whether it is realistically possible to accomplish this with the current power structure, even with the best of intentions, is something we will have to wait and see! Still, hopefully whatever reforms they manage to accomplish will enable a more civilized dialogue and better chances for the next step…

Jad: it’s much better than the first one:

1. Declaring all the Syrians who died as martyrs
2. -Emergency law to be removed next week
3. -Engage the public as Ehsani’s suggested
4. -New media law is under work
5. -Explain the economic challenges without unrealistic expectation
6. -Transparency between citizens and ministers on all decisions
7. -More strict monitoring over government contract
8. -Monitor of the senior position personnels’ wealth before and after being in the government as a way to fight corruption
9. -E government to fight lower level corruption
10. -DOMESTIC issues are number one priorities for all ministers.

No mention for article 8, but as NK wrote, that will be the next step

Michel Kilo: ???? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?????! This is an important article by Michel Kilo – one of the most articulate reformers who led the “Damascus Declaration” movement of 2005 and spent 5 years in jail for his courageous leadership. He advocates reform rather than regime-change and separates himself from the more radical element of the opposition.

???? ???? – ???? ???? ?? ???? ????? ???: ??????? ??????? ??????? ?????????? ?? ?????. www.ahewar.org – Haytham Mana`a on al-Jazeera talking about the “karama” revolution and democracy.

Ehsani2 reports:

Banks in Syria paying as high as 8 percent for one year Syrian pound deposits. There is no liquidity, People are pulling syp deposits from banks. They are stuffing them in mattresses or changing them into dollars. The withdrawl of deposits from banks is causing the banks to have to pay up to entice peole to bring back their money. before the events, banks were paying around 5% for syp deposits as they had lots of it. Now that its leaving the banking system, they are having to pay 7-8% to make sure their assets (loans) and covered by enough deposits. Another way to look at it is that the 3% jump in deposit rates, is to make up for a 3% devaluation expectation. people are rationale. they feel changing syp into $ makes sense for now.

Two days ago was the first session in past 4 where the syrian stocks finally stabilized. At least they stopped falling today.

Al-Jazeera report on the demonstrations in Syria this Friday.

Syrian security forces have dispersed thousands of protesters marching towards central Damascus from the suburb of Douma, witnesses say.

Haitham al-Maleh, an activist and lawyer, told Al Jazeera on Friday that protesters were close to Abasyeen Square when the intelligence services brought several buses carrying men with “pistols and sticks” who attacked protesters. He said those injured were taken away by medics.

Other sources said security forces used tear gas to disperse the crowds.

“I counted 15 mukhabarat [secret police] busloads. They went into the alleyways just north of the square chasing protesters and yelling ‘You pimps, you infiltrators, you want freedom? We will give it to you!’,” a witness told Reuters news agency.

Elsewhere in the capital, violence reportedly erupted when dozens of armed men in plainclothes surrounded about 250 protesters rallying in front of the Salam mosque in Barzeh district.

Thousands were also demonstrating in the southern city of Daraa. Al Jazeera’s Rula Amin said security forces were not visible in the city, and that the protesters were being allowed to hold their demonstration.

“It’s a completely different scene from last Friday when more than 26 people were killed during protests and clashes with the security forces and protesters here. People went out after Friday prayers … in thousands. They were marching carrying olive branches saying ‘Peaceful’ [and] ‘Freedom’. Some were demanding the toppling of the regime, others were saying they just want reforms,” she reported from Daraa.

“It comes one day after a delegation from Daraa met with President Bashar al-Assad in an attempt by the government to calm the situation … In Daraa, these measures seem to have calmed the situation a little bit. People say the president promised them very specific reforms that will be announced very soon, maybe as early as next week.”

Authorities Seize Huge Weapons Consignment Bound for Syria,  Apr 17, 2011 SANA

Averroes writes in the comment section:

I tried posting a couple of entries on the “Syrian Revolution against Bashar 2011” on Facebook. I was polite, and just asked why not give reforms a chance, and that kind of thing.

It took 6 minutes, and I was thrown out and my entries deleted.

Very democratic, and a great indication of what’s to come if these guys take over.

Omran writes:

i agree with others, when we Syrians who are for president Bashar and his reform efforts comment on Syrian so call revolution page LOL our comments are deleted as soon as they realize that we support Syria and Bashar al-Asad. why?? if they are calling for freedom and want all Syrians to engage in this freedom shouldn’t they listen to the millions of Syrians who support Bashar???

From Damascus, a friend writes that my post about the Nine Soldiers killed in Banyas got”front page coverage in today’s copy of Tishreen (Sat. 16 April) under the headline:

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And the surtitle:

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WikiLeaks: Hariri Urged Ending Assad Regime, Khaddam and Muslim Brotherhood to fill Void

Caretaker PM Saad Hariri believed that the Syrian and Iranian regimes are the obstacles behind the deteriorating peace process in the Middle East, revealed a WikiLeakes cable published in al-Akhbar newspaper on Friday.

Hariri stated that Israel is “protecting” the Syrian regime because it fears the unknown.

The leaked U.S. Embassy cable dated August 24, 2006, reported that he believed “weakening Syria will force Iran to work on its own.”

Hariri said during a meeting with a U.S. foreign ministry official and another diplomat in the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon, that isolating Syria and imposing a siege on it would cut Iran’s link to Lebanon and Palestine “where it is creating problems.”

He stressed: “Saudi Arabia and other Arabian countries have gotten fed up with Bashar… and are not interested in getting engaged in a dialogue with Damascus.”

“We need to put an end to the Syrian regime… All conflicts will end when this regime is abolished,” he continued.

When asked about who can fill the void if the regime falls, he stated that “collaboration between the Muslim Brotherhood and some of the officials that were part of the old regime, such as former Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam and former Syrian Chief of Staff Hikmat al-Shihabi” could assume control in Syria.

Hariri stressed that the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria is similar to the moderate Islamists in Turkey, explaining: “They will allow a Christian or a woman to become president. They even support a peace agreement with Israel.”

He expressed fears over Iranian intervention in the region, saying: “Syria is only part of a bigger problem which is Iran, which supports Islamist groups like Hizbullah and Hamas.”

The Mustaqbal Movement leader said that Iran and Syria are smuggling arms to Hizbullah through land borders not by sea or air.

Hariri questioned the usefulness of providing the Lebanese army with weapons to serve as an obstacle to Hizbullah when “its ammunition won’t last more than four hours.”

He added that he will cut all ties with Hizbullah, saying: “We want it to change its behavior and hand over its weapons, or it will have a problem with me.”

In another leaked cable dated September 27, 2006, Hariri noted that Lebanon only requires “light weapons and some helicopters to impose its sovereignty over all its territory.”

He believed that the residents of the South will turn against Hizbullah once the Lebanese army is deployed in the area as they will realize that the Lebanese authorities can help resolve their problems, not Hizbullah, which is only “an Iranian infiltrator.”

Syrians Renew Protests Despite Concessions
By LIAM STACK and KATHERINE ZOEPF – April 15, 2011

CAIRO — Protesters turned out again in large numbers in cities across Syria on Friday to demand reforms, defying a nationwide crackdown in which dozens of demonstrators have been killed by security forces. The marches on Friday were met with tear gas, beatings and reports of gunfire. Seeking to tamp down the unrest, the government of President Bashar al-Assad had announced several measures on Thursday that were meant to mollify demonstrators.

Tens of thousands of protesters marched into Damascus from its restive suburbs on Friday afternoon, said Razan Zeitouneh, a human rights activist. It was the first time that a protest that large had been seen in the capital, which the government had managed to hold in a tense calm for weeks. The protesters chanted “Freedom! Freedom!” and “The people want to overthrow the regime!” as they moved along. Ms. Zeitouneh estimated that the march began with 20,000 people in Doumathe, the site of large protests each of the last two weekends, and passed through a string of suburbs including Harasta and Arbeen.

Security forces responded with live ammunition and tear gas, she said, but it was unclear how effective those measures were. At midday, the march was continuing to push toward Abasseyeen Square in the heart of Damascus. By the time it reached the city limits, it had snowballed into a potentially serious challenge for the government of Mr. Assad, whose 11-year rule has been badly shaken by weeks of unrest. The security forces’ seeming inability to keep groups of protesters in different suburbs from joining into a large demonstration was ominous for the government, activists said.

Beyond the capital, there were reports of sizable protests in Homs and other cities and in the besieged southern town of Dara’a, which has been isolated behind a tight security cordon since the early days of unrest in mid-March.

A friend who lives in Aleppo is traveling through the Grab. He writes:

Hi Joshua,  Aljazeera is reporting largely peaceful anti-regime demonstrations in several cities today. We were driving down the Ghab plain today and were surprised to run across a small moped-borne protest, calling for “hurriya”, and kids chanting anti-regime slogans in another town (before being shushed by their elders). First time we’ve come across something like this in such a rural area; maybe it is spreading. (we’re going to check out the mountains the next few days).

Comment on this video of security forces mistreating protesters at al-Bayda ??? – ???? ?????? – ????? ???? ????? ?? ??????? 12-4-2011
This video is monumental now. ALL satellite TVs are showing nonstop today, given that there is no major events in other capitals today. Today has been dedicated to Syria.

Such a video removed any goodwill that yesterday’s decisions and efforts have created. I’m more convinced than ever that this is a war going on within the regime. These guys should be brought to justice immediately and swiftly. This should be made public today or it will be fuel for recruitment for weeks to come.

If bashar takes other good steps today or tomorrow then I think April 17 will be decisive. I think there would be massive pro demonstrations if cards are played right.

Another comment:

I think it indicates two things:

1. It purposely released to tell the opposition leaders, or whoever sent these young people, that see what happens to your boys? It is a strong message to those future recruits. The relese of this video is no accident.

2. It is also an internal message to those on top in Syria. It’s a message that the security forces (Maher’s clans) that we will do whatever we have to do. Im sure Bashar is not going to be happy seeing it, but Maher would be elated. This is going to be a video of great importance.

Syria’s young cyber activists keep protests in view – Guardian.

One commentator: If you put yourself in the shoes of your average young Arab or anyone anywhere, who wouldn’t sympathize with these activists, regardless if you think they know what they’re doing or not. regardless where this leads to! The war for public opinion is almost impossible to win by the regime. their only hope are the people who still support them genuinely inside Syria. They need to keep winning their hearts and minds by quick and meaningful reforms coupled with a charm offensive.

Maybe this is the reason: Cal Perry, Aljazeera English corespondent in Syria just tweeted:

“The meeting between the Pres. and the delegation from #Deraa has concluded. The delegation tells us they are “happy with the outcome” #Syria

100 prisoners released the town #Bayda near #Banias after yesterday’s sit in. #Syria

Assad Approves Syrian Cabinet in Wake of Protests
By Massoud A. Derhally and Alaa Shahine, Thursday, April 14, 2011

April 14 (Bloomberg) — Syrian President Bashar al-Assad approved the formation of a new government under Adel Safar almost two weeks after the prime minister was named to replace an administration that resigned after deadly protests.

In addition, Assad ordered the release of people detained during political protests that started about a month ago and who did not “commit criminal acts,” the state-run SANA news agency reported. The government agency didn’t say how many would be released or indicate how many people were detained by the authorities.

In the cabinet shake-up, Mohammad al-Jalilati replaced Finance Minister Mohammad al-Hussein, while Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallem and Energy Minister Sufian Alao retained their positions in the new government, the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency reported today. Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdallah Dardari, who isn’t from the ruling Baath party, was removed. Mohammad Ibrahim Shaar was named interior minister, overseeing the country’s security.

Safar, who will be joined in the cabinet by a total of 30 lawmakers, was agriculture minister in the cabinet of Muhammad Naji Otri. Otri quit March 29 following demonstrations that have been the strongest challenge to Assad’s rule since he inherited power from his father in 2000. In a March 30 speech, Assad told parliament that political changes are under way and that Syria won’t be rushed. He also said the protests were a conspiracy….

The Syrian counter-revolution has an anthem now… “?? ?????”!

Best chants today were in Reef Dimashq villages:

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‘U.S. Says Iran Helps Crackdown in Syria
By Adam Entous And Matthew Rosenberg 14 April 2011, The Wall Street Journal

Iran is secretly helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad put down pro-democracy demonstrations, according to U.S. officials, who say Tehran is providing gear to suppress crowds and assistance blocking and monitoring protesters’ use of the Internet, cellphones and text-messaging.

At the same time, communications intercepted by U.S. spy agencies show Tehran is actively exploring ways to aid some Shiite hardliners in Bahrain and Yemen and destabilize longstanding U.S. allies there, say U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence. Such moves could challenge interests of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and inflame sectarian tensions across the Middle East, they say.

“We believe that Iran is materially assisting the Syrian government in its efforts to suppress their own people,” said an Obama administration official.

U.S. officials say they don’t see Iran as the driving force behind popular revolts against longtime U.S. allies in the Mideast, and caution they have no concrete evidence that Iran is providing or preparing large-scale financial or military support to opposition elements in Bahrain or Yemen.

Rather, the White House has worried that protracted political turmoil could provide an opening for additional influence by Tehran, whose nuclear ambitions are a concern to the U.S. and its allies in Europe and the Middle East.

So far, an administration official said, Iranian “aspirations far outpace their ability to project their influence into these places.”

By disclosing intelligence about Iranian involvement, the U.S. appears to be trying to put Tehran on notice that it is under close surveillance in Washington. “We’re keeping an eye on these activities,” another Obama administration official said……

Strong report of the Deraa violence of Friday by Human Rights Watch Asserts that government authorities prevented medical care from reaching wounded and other for committing other human rights violations in Deraa.

The Syrian Government has denied that its troops prevented ambulances from reaching wounded.

The student that “Syrian revolution” page on Facebook claimed was killed in the demonstration at the Univ of  Damascus – speaks out, explaining that he is in good health.

Associated Press news agency said the Damascus Declaration, Syria’s leading pro-democracy group, had urged leaders of the Arab League to impose sanctions on al-Assad’s government, and put the death toll from the unrest at more than 200.

Easter celebrations in Syria are canceled by “the heads of Syria’s Churches” due to the turmoil and deaths

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????? ?????? ??????????? ??????? ???? ??? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ??????? ???????? ?? ???? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ????? ???????? ?????? ?????????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? ???????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ??????? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????????.

Understanding Syria’s unrest
By a correspondent in Damascus, who wishes not to have his/her named used.

Asad’s Lost Chances by Carsten Wieland | published April 13, 2011. Middle East Report

…Just after the US invasion of Iraq, in May 2003, many observers pricked up their ears in surprise when a central regime figure commended the Syrian opposition for its prudence. Bahjat Sulayman, the powerful former head of Syrian intelligence, wrote in the Lebanese newspaper al-Safir, “In Syria, the regime does not have enemies but ‘opponents’ whose demands do not go beyond certain political and economic reforms such as the end of the state of emergency and martial law; the adoption of a law on political parties; and the equitable redistribution of national wealth.” [1] Forcible regime change, Sulayman knew, was only on the agenda of select exiles and US politicians. But President Asad treated the Civil Society Movement intellectuals, with their debating clubs and talk of a soft landing for Syria’s transition away from authoritarianism, like a gang of criminals…..

Antoun Issa, Democracy’s price may be too high for Syria, 14 April 2011 – Australia’s ABC.

Christopher Phillips comments on President’s Assad’s perceived weakness.

Whither Syria • Bitter Lemons

. At the point of no return – Nizar Abdel-Kader
The Assad regime does not have effective means to find a long-term solution.

• A twist in Syria’s sobriety – Rime Allaf
Syrians have already achieved phenomenal changes, despite paying a heavy price.

• Paying lip service to resistance does not provide immunity – Karim Emile Bitar
Foreign powers may allow the Syrian regime to survive or at least gain time.

• Weathering the storm – Elias Samo
With prompt reforms, Assad will survive the domestic challenge.

Syria’s national tire factory closes – Story here in al-Iqtisad – One readers comments below:

MY FATHER REPRESENTS A TURKISH MANUFACTURER FOR THE SAME TIRES THAT ARE PRODUCED BY THIS STATE OWNED COMPANY. THEY HAVE ZERO CHANCE IN BEATING THE TURKISH PRODUCT. THE TECHNOLOGY IS VERY OLD. THEY ARE ALMOST 70% OVER STAFFED. MONEY DOWN THE DRAIN EVERY YEAR. A MICROCOSM OF WHAT IS WRONG. THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD NEVER HAVE GOTTEN INTO THE BUSINESS OF MAKING TIRES. THEY MUST SELL IT FOR FREE TO THE WORKERS

Statement from President Obama on the Violence in Syria – April 8, 2011

I strongly condemn the abhorrent violence committed against peaceful protesters by the Syrian government today and over the past few weeks. I also condemn any use of violence by protesters. The United States extends our condolences to the families and loved ones of all the victims. I call upon the Syrian authorities to refrain from any further violence against peaceful protestors. Furthermore, the arbitrary arrests, detention, and torture of prisoners that has been reported must end now, and the free flow of information must be permitted so that there can be independent verification of events on the ground.

Throughout this time of upheaval, the American people have heard the voices of the Syrian people, who have demonstrated extraordinary courage and dignity, and who deserve a government that is responsive to their aspirations. Syrians have called for the freedoms that individuals around the world should enjoy: freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; and a government that is transparent and free of corruption. These rights are universal, and they must be respected in Syria.

Until now, the Syrian government has not addressed the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people. Violence and detention are not the answer to the grievances of the Syrian people. It is time for the Syrian government to stop repressing its citizens and to listen to the voices of the Syrian people calling for meaningful political and economic reforms.

Syrian Central Bank Says Bank Lending Grows 16.5% in 2010
2011-04-12 By Lina Ibrahim

April 12 (Bloomberg) — Syrian bank lending grew by 16.5 percent in 2010 to 1.2 trillion pounds ($25.3 billion), mainly by state-owned lenders, the Central Bank of Syria said in a report posted on its website today. Loans by six state-owned banks accounted for 78 percent of total loans compared with 83 percent a year earlier, it said. Syrian banks held deposits totalling 1.4 trillion pounds by the end of 2010, a 16.7 percent increase, according to the report.

Le régime syrien cherche à entraîner la population dans une guerre civile
Ignace Leverrier, ancien diplomate, chercheur arabisant
LEMONDE.FR | 06.04.11 |

Pendant qu’il en est encore temps, l’opinion publique internationale doit ouvrir les yeux sur la situation en Syrie. Ce qui s’y prépare en silence loin des regards est d’une extrême gravité. Il s’agit ni plus ni moins, de la part d’un régime à bout de ressources politiques et dont le seul argument réside dans l’emploi de la force, que de pousser les Syriens à bout. Il veut les contraindre, soit à renoncer à leurs aspirations à la liberté, soit à recourir à la violence. Il lui sera alors facile de travestir la demande de démocratie de la jeunesse syrienne en un “soulèvement confessionnel”. Et il justifiera par la “protection de l’unité nationale” l’emploi contre les manifestants d’une violence d’autant plus grande que sa peur aura été intense…..

The Syria peace myth
Op-ed: Latest developments in Syria prove that talk of peace with Assad family was baseless
Guy Bechor, 04.10.11, 14:13 / Israel Opinion – Ynet

A terrible thing happened to an entire sector in Israel – the politicians, former military men and experts who for dozens of years kept on talking about making peace with the Assad family. The option of such agreement with Syria is off the agenda now, and moreover, it turns out that it was a false alternative that would have damaged Israel greatly had it been realized.

For some 40 years they told us that peace with the Alawite family ruling Syria will bring us peace with the entire Arab world. Later they told us that such peace deal would restrain Lebanon and Hezbollah. After that they said that a deal would sever the ties between Syria and Iran. And after all that we were told that we didn’t make enough effort to appease Damascus.

All of this was accompanied with a certain degree of romanticism and admiration for the Assad family; the father, the son and the holy spirit. Yet all of these stories were baseless…..

Jerusalem Post: ‘Wikileaks’: Syria aimed chemical weapons at Israel, 2011-04-16

Syria placed long-range chemical weapons on its border with Israel in 2007 in response to Israeli destruction of one of their nuclear reactors, ‘Wikileaks’ documents reveal. The existence of the missiles was discussed in a March 2008 meeting with …

“Syria’s New Government”
By EHSANI2
For Syria Comment
April 15, 2011

Since the new Syrian Government was announced, the public reaction has largely been subdued. Most people are mesmerized by the extraordinary events on the ground,  nevertheless, let me discuss the people of the new government and what it may mean for Syria’s domestic policy. CVs of all ministers..

The first notable change is the outright elimination of the office of the deputy Prime Minister for Economic affairs previously held by Mr. Dardari. In essence, no one replaced Mr. Dardari as his previous function was eliminated altogether. This is a significant change. As many readers of this forum recall, I was a fan of Mr. Dardari. For very understandable reasons, my view was not shared by a large segment of the Syrian population. Over time, Mr. Dardari’s name became synonymous with the two words: “economic reform”. When the public became disillusioned with the so-called reform process or the economy, Mr. Dardari took the brunt of the criticism. In the end, neither the wealthy industrialists nor the poor or the unemployed were happy with his performance. In truth, there were two reasons for Mr. Dardari’s downfall:

1-    He was too optimistic when it came to portraying the country’s economic prospects.

2-    He took on the hard task of removing key subsidies with minimum engagement with the public about the reasons why those steps were necessary.

For the past five years, discussions on the Syrian economy on this forum highlighted the enormous challenges ahead. While Mr. Dardari and others touted the imminent investments and out-sized growth prospects, many of us were highly skeptical. Regrettably, not much has changed. Indeed, if anything, the recent political events have made the task at hand enormously more challenging.

Suggestions for the New Government:

• Engage the public.
• Explain the economic challenges.
• Set realistic expectations.
• Don’t over promise and under deliver.
• Be decisive and make bold decisions.

The new notable additions to the new government are Mr. Mohammed al-Jlelati (Finance) and Mr. Nedal Alchaar (Economy and Trade). Both are fine individuals and excellent choices in the current circumstances.

Mr. al-Jlelati is known to the public through the Damascus Securities Exchange (DSE) as its acting CEO. He is a hands-on Technocrat. He is decisive. All signs are that he is not corrupt. He has been in close contact with the business world. He understands accounting, auditing and corporate governance. Of course, one can argue that his knowledge of finance and markets are limited to the local rather than international arena but this is a rather immaterial shortcoming given the current state of Syria’s financial market development. In sum, it is a good bet that Mr. al-Jlelati will be a technically sound and rather apolitical Finance Minister.

Mr. Nedal Alchaar is a particularly interesting appointment. Originally from Aleppo, he has been based in Bahrain. He has been in charge of the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI). The organization is an independent body established to regulate and standardize the Islamic banking and finance industry in the areas of accounting, auditing, governance, ethics and Sharia. Mr. Alchaar is a highly respected individual in the field of Islamic Banking. Here is a recent quote by him from a year ago:

“The goal is to promote sound practices, not to catch people, and the most important thing is credibility. If this is going to spread and really serve the world and the public, not only Muslims, then it has to be done right. It has to be honest, straight and transparent. In money you always have to be honest, because you cannot repeat your mistakes. People will shy away, leave you and drop out.”

Mr. Alchaar is known to hundreds of institutions from over 40 countries. His numerous contacts will serve Syria well as he works to attract foreign investors (particularly gulf-based).

Suggestions to Mr. Alchaar:

• Now, that there is no longer an office for a Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Trade and the Economy should take the initiative to broaden its responsibilities and become the single go-to office for everything to do with economic policy matters. This will promote better accountability, focus and transparency when it comes to who is in charge and who is responsible for both the failure and success of the domestic policy agenda.

Mr. Omar Ibrahim Galawanji – Minister for Local Administration: The third notable change in the government was the removal of the powerful Mr. Tamer Hajje. Just 24 hours before the formation of the new government, the sitting Governor of Aleppo issued a stinging criticism of Mr. Hajje and Otri about their delayed response to his repeated calls to accelerate the Tanzeem plans for his city. Mr. Omar Ibrahim Galawanji is now the new Minister for Local Administration replacing Mr. Tamer Hajje. This will be a key Ministry to watch as it is in charge of setting policy for the entire real estate sector and city planning for the country. It is arguably one of the most important ministries in the government.

Mrs. Lamia Asi: The fourth important change involved the Tourism Ministry. Mrs. Lamia Asi is now in charge. She had briefly run the Ministry of the Economy. She of course used to be the country’s Ambassador to Malaysia and is known to be a big fan of that Asian country’s development performance. She is also known to be practical and not dogmatic.

Suggestions to Mrs. Asi:

• A team of Syrian lawyers and Business men have recently made a trip to Turkey and met with that country’s Tourism Ministry. Turkey of course has done an outstanding job in attracting international chains to develop its coast by building as many as 490 five star resorts all over the country. How did they achieve this? By offering investors free land and an attractive 2% subsidized financing for 50% of the total cost of the project. Syria must start thinking along these lines. The country’s tourism industry needs a massive shot in the arm. The Turkish model must be studied in great detail. Reputable International investors must be given extremely attractive terms to help entice them to come and ensure the growth of this critical sector. The tourism ministry must stop becoming a profit center that squeezes investors for extra income and unattractive terms.

A final word:

Contrary to the criticism that the new government may have received from some corners, I believe that the mix struck the right tone. Almost all the Ministers have an excellent reputation when it comes to corruption and reputation. Most are technocrats and professionally sound. None seem to have extreme political orientations or leaning.

Having said this, we should not be fooled into thinking that this or any other government can turn Syria’s economic prospects around anytime soon. The challenges will be enormous. There is no magic formula. Years of economic mismanagement cannot be undone without pain or sacrifice. The recent population explosion is a tremendous burden. Moreover, the current political climate will make it very hard to relieve the pressures on the fiscal front when it comes to the expensive subsidies and the bleeding in the public sector. Finding the revenues to finance these prohibitive programs will be very hard. No one wants to pay taxes because the government does not provide enough services. The government cannot provide the services because it cannot (or is unwilling to) collect enough taxes from the wealthy. No one wants to lose the subsidies. No one has the stomach to privatize the vast inefficient public sector and save the treasury the yearly red ink. As revenues from natural resources dwindle, the country cannot keep paying out more than it takes forever. The time will soon come when the country either has to borrow or print money to pay its bills. The above vicious circle has to be broken. A new virtuous circle has to start taking hold. In the meantime, the new government must level with the Syrian people and explain the enormous challenges and policy dilemmas that it faces. Again, the following principals ought to be a good place to start:

• Engage the public.
• Explain the economic challenges.
• Set realistic expectations.
• Don’t over promise and under deliver.
• Be decisive and make bold decisions.
• Cut red tape and streamline the government bureaucracy (New Ministry?).
• Cut interest rates sharply and slowly weaken the exchange rate of the Syrian Pound.
• Cut taxes to 10% and make sure you collect taxes from the rich.
• Institute a real estate tax on high end properties that will fund local infrastructure.
• Tackle the public sector and start a national dialogue on the pros and cons of privatization.
• Give the Prime Minister and his cabinet the room to make policy outside of the dictate of the regional command of the party.
• Use already established best practices when formulating new laws by working with international organizations like the WTO and the IFC.
• Make the rule of law priority number one. Increase the compensation of the judiciary by at least 300%.

Syria: the dangerous trap of sectarianism
By NIKOLAOS VAN DAM
For Syria Comment
April 14, 2011

* Nikolaos van Dam is former Ambassador of the Netherlands to Iraq, Egypt, Turkey, Germany and Indonesia and the author of The Struggle for Power in Syria, its 4th updated edition is to be published shortly.

The fact that the issue of sectarianism has, thus far, not figured prominently in discussions on recent violent developments in Syria does not mean that it is not an important undercurrent which could fundamentally undermine the possibility of achieving democracy as demanded by Syrian opposition groups. Syrians are very much aware of it but tend, generally, to avoid talking about sectarianism openly, because it can have such a destructive effect. The early 1980s are an example of this, when the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood provoked the minoritarian Alawi-dominated Ba’th regime into a bloody sectarian confrontation by assassinating various prominent, and less-prominent, Alawi people, not necessarily because they were Ba’thists but because they were Alawis. The climax came with the Muslim Brotherhood revolt in Hama in 1982 which was bloodily suppressed by predominantly Alawi troops, taking the lives of some 10-25.000 inhabitants of the mainly Sunni population there. Nobody would wish to see a repetition of such bloody events, which have left deep social scars. For almost 30 years since the ‘Hama slaughter’, the situation in Syria has been relatively quiet on the sectarian front. This does not mean, however, that the issue of sectarianism could not become acute again, particularly since the Ba’th regime is presently under threat, while its main power institutions, such as the army and security services, are still clearly dominated by a hard core of Alawis who continue to constitute the backbone of the regime.

Whereas the common sectarian, regional and tribal backgrounds of  the main Ba’thist rulers have been key to the durability and strength of the regime, their Alawi sectarian background is also inherently one of its main weaknesses. The ‘Alawi factor’ seems to be hindering a peaceful transformation from Syrian dictatorship towards a more widely representative regime. The present Syrian demonstators’ main demands are simply to get more political freedoms and to make an end to the corrupt one party dictatorial system. The sectarianism issue is generally avoided by them. After all, the last thing the opposition seems to want is another sectarian war or confrontation which would not only lead to more violence and suppression, but would also not result in meeting any of their demands. The opposition instead prefers to portray the Syrian people as one and the same, irrespective of them being Arab, Kurd, Sunni, Alawi, Christian, Druze, Isma’ili, or whatever. They want justice, dignity and freedom. Their demands have, thus far, generally been rather modest, democratically oriented and peaceful.

It is good to take into consideration that there is no clear sectarian dichotomy in Syrian society, dividing the country into Alawis and non-Alawis. Syria has never been ruled by ‘the Alawi community’ as such. It is only natural that there are also numerous Alawi opponents to the regime. Many Alawis have themselves been suffering from Alawi-dominated Ba‘thist dictatorship, often just as much as, or occasionally even more than, non-Alawis.  This dictatorship rules over all Syrian regions, sectors and population groups, including those with an Alawi majority. Many Alawis are just as eager for political change in Syria, as other Syrians.  Syrian youths from all social and ethnic segments are prepared to take great risks to help achieving it. They and others also, however, tend to be carried away by the so-called ‘successes’ of demonstrators elsewhere in the Arab world, particularly in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya. But when it comes to the dangerous issue of sectarianism, Syria is a special case.

It appears difficult to imagine a scenario in which the present narrowly based, totalitarian regime, dominated by members of the Alawi minority, who traditionally have been discriminated against by the Sunni majority, and who themselves have during the past decades severely repressed part of that same Sunni population, can now be peacefully transformed into a more widely based democracy, involving a greater part of the Sunni majority. A transformation from Alawi-dominated dictatorship to democracy in Syria should certainly not be taken for granted as a self-evident development, because it would imply that present repressive institutions should be dismantled, and that the regime would have to give up its privileged positions. As the traditional Sunni population in general has apparently not given up its prejudice and traditional negative attitude towards Alawi religion and Alawis in general – it might even be argued that Sunni grudges against Alawis have only increased as a result of Alawi-dominated dictatorship – it seems only logical to expect that the presently privileged Alawi rulers cannot count on much understanding from a more democratic (or less dictatorial, or perhaps even more repressive) regime which would for instance be dominated by members of the Sunni majority. A nascent democratic regime might in the end – due partly to lack of any long-term democratic tradition in Syria – turn into a Sunni dominated or other kind of dictatorship, members of which might wish to take revenge against their former Alawi rulers and oppressors. Many Alawis, including some of the regime’s initial opponents, might feel forced to cluster together for self-preservation if they would be given the impression, whether justified or not, of being threatened by a Sunni majority.

Perhaps there might be a way out through a kind of national dialogue with the aim of reconciliation. But such a reconciliation is only  possible if enough trust can be created among the various parties. Why would key figures in the Syrian regime voluntarily give up their positions if they can hardly expect anything other than being court-martialed and imprisoned afterwords?

A good beginning could be made by the Syrian regime through essential reform measures by way of an adequate response to the reasonable demands of the democratically and peacefully oriented opposition. Having a totalitarian regime, president Bashar al-Asad should at least be able to control all his security institutions, as well as armed irregular Alawi gangs like the Shabbihah, to guide Syria out of this crisis in a peaceful manner. Falling in the dangerous trap of sectarianism is in nobody’s interest, least of all of the Alawi community, which wishes a better future for Syria, like anyone else in the country.

—–
Nikolaos van Dam is former Ambassador of the Netherlands to Iraq, Egypt, Turkey, Germany and Indonesia and the author of The Struggle for Power in Syria (its 4th updated edition is to be published shortly).

A number of news reports by AFP, the Guardian, and other news agencies and outlets are suggesting that Syrian security forces were responsible for shooting nine Syrian soldiers, who were killed in Banyas on Sunday. Some versions insist that they were shot for refusing orders to shoot at demonstrators.

Considerable evidence suggests this is not true and that western journalists are passing on bad information.

* Testimony of colonel `Uday Ahmad. My wife spoke this morning to one witness who denied the story. He is colonel `Uday Ahmad, brother-in-law of Lt. Col. Yasir Qash`ur, who was shot and killed in Banyas with eight other Syrian soldiers on Sunday April 10, 2011. Uday Ahmad was sitting in the back seat of the truck which Yasir was driving when he was shot dead on the highway outside Banyas. Uday said that shooting was coming from two directions. One was from the roof of a building facing the highway and another from people hiding behind the cement median of the highway. They jumped up and shot into the two trucks carrying Syrian troops, killing 9. Col. Uday survived. Here is video of the shooting shown on Syrian TV sent by my brother-in-law, Firas, who lives in Latakia.

* Video of one soldier purportedly confessing to being shot in the back by security forces and linked to by the Guardian has been completely misconstrued. The Guardian irresponsibly repeats a false interpretation of the video provided by an informant.

1. This is what the Guardian writes: “Footage on YouTube shows an injured soldier saying he was shot in the back by security forces.”

The video does not “support” the story that the Guardian says it does. The soldier denies that he was ordered to fire on people. Instead, he says he was on his way to Banyas to enforce security. He does not say that he was shot at by government agents or soldiers. In fact he denies it. The interviewer tries to put words in his mouth but the soldier clearly denies the story that the interviewer is trying to make him confess to.  In the video, the wounded soldier is surrounded by people who are trying to get him to say that he was shot by a military officer. The soldier says clearly, “They [our superiors] told us, ‘Shoot at them IF they shoot at you.'”

The interviewer tried to get the wounded soldier to say that he had refused orders to shoot at the people when he asked : “When you did not shoot at us what happened?” But the soldier doesn’t understand the question because he has just said that he was not given orders to shoot at the people. The soldier replies, “Nothing, the shooting started from all directions”.  The interviewer repeats his question in another way by asking, “Why were you shooting at us, we are Muslims?” The soldier answers him, “I am Muslim too.”  The interviewer asks, “So why were you going to shoot at us?” The soldier replies, “We did not shoot at people. They shot at us at the bridge.”

* Alix Van Buren, a veteran reporter for la Repubblica, Italy’s leading newspaper, is in Damascus and sends the following report about the possible role of armed Khaddam agitators in Banyas.

Josh, the picture is extremely confusing and it is often impossible to confirm data on the web. The absence of most foreign media here in Syria adds to that murky picture. What I can contribute about the question of “foreign meddling” is the following. These are direct quotes from leading and respected opposition members:

Sunday two of ex-Vice President Khaddam’s men were arrested in Banyas. A human rights activist confirmed that they were sowing trouble by distributing money and weapons. I don’t know what to make of the confessions of the three guys shown on Syrian tv today. However, several Syrian dissidents believe in the presence and the role of “infiltrators”. Michel Kilo, though he accepts that possibility, cautioned that the issue of “infiltrators and conspiracies” should not be exploited as an obstacle in the quick transition towards democracy.

Haytham al-Maleh was the most explicit in pointing to the meddling of Khaddam people in and around Banias. He also mentioned the “loose dogs” loyal to Rifa’t al-Assad. According to him they are active particularly along the coast between Tartous and Latakya. Here is a link to my interview with al-Maleh in La Repubblica.

The veteran blogger Ahmed Abu ElKheir, unfortunately now in prison for the second time in less than a month, and not yet released, has links to Banyas. The first, peaceful demonstration of Saturday morning was also sparked by the request for his release. In his Facebook profile, before being arrested, he too lashed out against Khaddam. Several commentators from that area agreed with him, cursing Khaddam for meddling “with the blood of the innocents”.

Finally, what do you make of the remarks by Haytham al-Manna from Paris to Al Jazeera?

There is much buzz about that over here, although, the Western media doesn’t seem to have picked upon it yet. See the text in Arabic from Al Watan. Manna basically says that he was approached by a group of men, including a Syrian businessman holding a foreign passport, who asked him to facilitate the distribution of money and weapons to the young demonstrators. There is a vague reference to a person in the group, linked to a “major Arab Gulf country”. Al-Manna is from Dera’a, and if what he said is confirmed, his origin adds significance to the context. He reportedly issued a warning to the people in Dera’a not to accept offers of money or weapons from anyone.

I am trying to get confirmation of the above directly from him.

Also see my interview with Suhair al-Atassi

Post script to the previous note sent by Alix Van Buren:

I finally got through to Haytham Manna in Paris. He confirmed the story of Al Watan, adding a few details: he spoke about three groups having contacted him to provide money and weapons to the rebels in Syria. First, a Syrian businessman (the story reported by Al Jazeera); secondly, he was contacted by “several pro-American Syrian opposers” to put it in his words. (he referred to more than one individual); thirdly, he mentioned approaches of the same kind by “Syrians in Lebanon who are loyal to a Lebanese party which is against Syria”. Well, he probably means Hariri. But that is MY OWN ASSUMPTION, as he flatly refused to name names, for he said he does not want to get into “les contrastes libano-libanaises”. But when I pronounced that name asking him to fully express his thought, he did not contradict me. He did also refer to other nationalities “meddling” in the Syrian rebellion. He stated that the “Intifadat Karama”, the Intifada of Dignity, is a “purely Syrian affair” and that no one, “neither Jordanians, nor Lebanese, nor Saudis” should interfere. “It is a matter that Syrians must resolve among themselves”.

He also was extremely firm in saying that anyone providing money and weapons to the Syrian rebels, is “pushing them to commit suicide”, as “the confrontation with the Security apparatus cannot be won through armed clashes. Both the firepower and the sheer numbers of the military plus the security (which he puts at 2,5 millions in total) would crush them”, he says. In his opinion, “the young can prevail only through non-violence. He agrees that there are people close to Khaddam and Rifa’t along the coast, but he believes “they are very few – in the dozens” – and that the two exiled Syrians “don’t really have a political base of support”. The people who do create trouble and receive money for doing so, according to him, are simple “misérables”, “destitute individuals who will do so in exchange for money”.

All of the above is part of the current discourse among the Syrian opposition.

* A three-page document purporting to be a “top secret” Mukhabarat memo, giving instruction to intelligence forces that “it is acceptable to shoot some of the security agents or army officers in order to further deceive the enemy” has been published on the web and republished by all4Syria. A copy was sent to me with a translation by a journalist with a leading magazine for my thoughts. It has blood splattered on it and is clearly a fake. What army, after all, would survive even days if its top officers were publishing orders to shoot its own officers? Not a good moral booster for the troops.

AFP and other news agencies have quoted opposition members from Banyas insisting that the nine officers and soldiers of the Syrian army shot by government forces in Banyas. They also claim that “shadowy agents” opening fire on the people are agents of the regime.

“Banias is surrounded by tanks. No one can get in or out. It is like a prison,” said Yasser, a shopkeeper. “Security forces were responsible for killing soldiers in Banias because they had refused to attack the city,” he added – an account that differed sharply from the official version.

The official Sana news agency had said nine soldiers, including two officers, had been killed on Monday when their patrol was ambushed outside the town.

The army has encircled Banias since Monday, when shadowy agents of the regime opened fire on residents, particularly in front of mosques, killing four people and wounding 17….

Syrian soldiers shot for refusing to fire on protesters.
Katherine Marsh – a pseudonym – in Damascus
guardian, Tuesday 12 April 2011

Witnesses claim soldiers who disobeyed orders in Banias were shot by security services as crackdown on protests intensifies.

Syrian soldiers have been shot by security forces after refusing to fire on protesters, witnesses said, as a crackdown on anti-government demonstrations intensified.

Witnesses told al-Jazeera and the BBC that some soldiers had refused to shoot after the army moved into Banias in the wake of intense protests on Friday.

Human rights monitors named Mourad Hejjo, a conscript from Madaya village, as one of those shot by security snipers. “His family and town are saying he refused to shoot at his people,” said Wassim Tarif, a local human rights monitor.

Footage on YouTube shows an injured soldier saying he was shot in the back by security forces, while another video shows the funeral of Muhammad Awad Qunbar, who sources said was killed for refusing to fire on protesters. Signs of defections will be worrying to Syria‘s regime. State media reported a different version of events, claiming nine soldiers had been killed in an ambush by an armed group in Banias.

Activists said not all soldiers reported dead or injured were shot after refusing to fire. “We are investigating reports that some people have personal weapons and used them in self-defence,” said Tarif….

SYRIA’S PRESIDENT ASSAD: WHY IS ANYONE SURPRISED?
By Brian J. Davis, Ottawa, ON: [[email protected]]
For Syria Comment
Tuesday, April 12, 2011

As Canadian Ambassador to Syria from 2003 to 2006, I had the opportunity to observe President Bashar Assad and his regime under intense stress as a result of the U.S. invasion of neighbouring Iraq, the UN Security Council Resolutions forcing Syria out of Lebanon following the assassination of PM Rafiq Hariri, U.S. sanctions against Syria, the war between Hezbollah and Israel in July 2006, and the virtual isolation of Syria by western powers.

Observing recent events, the only surprise to me about President Assad’s much anticipated speech of March 30th and his subsequent actions or inactions, as the case may be, was that so many Syrians and pundits appeared to expect more. Anyone who thought he would announce a radical shift in policies or a sudden declaration of democracy and increased freedoms should take a closer look at the kind of person he is and what motivates his regime.

Assad is a cautious, conservative leader. While he has slowly acquired the knowledge and skills of a President since assuming that mantle upon the death of his father in 2000, he lacks the natural instinctive talents of a leader. He is not the kind of person who will take risks or be creative. He likes to take his time to study an issue and he is particularly fond of placing these into a logical framework of cause and effect.

As for being a “reformer”, too much is made of his time as a student in the UK. He was there for a very short time and was cocooned in the expatriate Arab community. He did not immerse himself in genuine every day British or European life that would have exposed him to democracy, freedoms and the exercise of civil rights. Indeed, his formative years were spent under the family tree. Using a tired but, in this case, appropriate aphorism, he is an apple who has not fallen far from that tree. Assad is not a cosmopolite and expectations that he would be the “reformer” are simply misplaced.

Bashar Assad is a decent, intelligent man but without particular charisma or strategic brilliance. I believe he genuinely wants to be a popular president. He and his wife have made strides in this regard. They have been far more visible to the common Syrian, trying to demonstrate a human touch by dining publicly in restaurants, driving their own cars, and making more public appearances than his father. He took a lively interest in information technology even before becoming president and has continued to nurture this sector, striking a responsive chord with the Syrian youth.

Because he is perceived to have stood up to the U.S. (with regard to Iraq) and to Israel (through his support for Hezbollah and Hamas), he has achieved considerable popularity on the “Arab street” across the region. This distinguishes him from President Mubarak of Egypt and President Ben Ali of Tunisia, who were seen to have aligned themselves with western powers, rather than fighting for the rights of Arabs, especially those of Palestinians. It remains to be seen if that popularity will endure, given his efforts to smother the current wave of demands for more freedoms being made to him.

Assad would like to see Syria’s economy improve, create jobs for the large number of unemployed youth and attract foreign investment, not only because he genuinely cares for his country but because success in those areas would strengthen the regime. It would attenuate the growing dissatisfaction of a population that is faced with a decaying education system, limited job prospects, a growing gap between rich and poor, endemic corruption, and restrictions on freedoms, particularly those of expression and association.

One of the lessons Assad learned well from his father, but which also seems to reflect his own character, is not to act in haste or under threat. A careful examination of how he has behaved since becoming president shows that he will never easily concede to anything under pressure. Indeed, he has made a number of decisions that were not even necessarily in Syria’s interests rather than be seen to give in to outside arm twisting (even his recent speech can be seen in that light). So, for those who know him, there will have been no surprise that he offered nothing in his speech and as little as necessary ever since.

Despite the above, there is little doubt that Assad and his cohorts are worried about current developments around the Middle East and in Syria. While his regime may have some delusions of being different from others that have come under attack, it also recognizes that there is considerable dissatisfaction among average Syrians.

In his speech, Assad employed the time-honoured practice of many autocratic leaders in the Middle East and elsewhere of blaming the demonstrations on interference by outside forces, making every effort to wrap himself in the flag and to call on Syrians to join him in defending the nation. Indeed, there probably has been foreign meddling and, while not nearly as significant as Assad would have everyone believe, there may have been enough to persuade the credulous.

President Assad also appealed to the Syrian desire for stability in a sea of strife. With ready examples of the sectarian troubles in neighbouring Iraq and Lebanon and Syria’s own post-WWII history of coups and outside interference, Syrians will be reluctant to abandon their unspoken pact of accepting restraints on their freedoms in exchange for the safety and stability provided by the Assad regime.

Assad has often alluded to what would happen if his regime collapsed. Après moi le déluge! And, there is a real danger that Syria could go the way of Iraq. It is a society with many minorities and no potential leaders to replace Assad (essentially because the regime has rid itself of any threats). Assad will fight to the end to retain power for fear that his minority Alawite clan could face retaliation for the decades of abuse of power and because all the power, prestige and wealth that his regime has accumulated over that time would be lost.

Assad may well win this round, maintaining his traditionally tight control of his people. Indeed, I believe he will. However, if he runs true to form, he will then take steps in the coming weeks and months to institute more of the types of “reforms” he has been slowly introducing over the past 11 years. This is simply a process of buying time. He is unlikely to open Syria up to broad freedoms, to independent political parties or to any other moves that could jeopardize his regime’s control of the country. In the end, one has to be realistic, true democracy, which assumes the peaceful change of leaders and governments, is not something that holds any appeal for Assad and his clique. Democracy or even significantly greater freedoms would lessen the regime’s control and this will simply not occur in Syria without a revolution of some kind.

Such a revolution will not likely occur in the short term, because Syrians are not yet ready to unite against the Assad regime and pay the cost in blood that this would take. Indeed, many Syrians still believe he is a reformer at heart and is battling others in his circle to implement reforms. This is pure delusion. While there are strains within the regime, its leaders realize they must stick together to survive. In Assad’s early years in office, one might have accepted that he faced considerable constraints on his decision making. The clique would not have been confident of his abilities. He had to earn his spurs. With time, he has consolidated his position and now must take responsibility for the ongoing abuses of human rights and for the lack of progress in most areas.

It is my belief that he now does call the shots when it comes to foreign and security policies. There will be discussion and debate within his entourage but he makes the final decision. That is not to say that there are not occasional ‘excesses’ committed by some of the security and intelligence services. However, Assad has the power and the authority to override these if he wishes. So, when political activists are detained and held without trial for months or even years, Assad has to be held accountable for it. After 11 years in power, he cannot be given a pass by saying that he does not control the elements in his regime who are doing those things. From personal experience, I have seen him override actions by his intelligence services, when he believed it was in his own best interests or Syria’s to do so.

Where he may have more limitations on his actions is in the economic sector. Many of his relatives and powerful allies, including some of the wealthy Sunni merchants that support him, have become rich through monopolies they have been awarded and through a variety of benefits that accrue to them by virtue of their ties to the regime. Any changes that could threaten the revenues of this group will go through an informal vetting and Assad will not be able to proceed without getting a majority of them on board.

With that caveat, I believe Assad is willing to liberalize only on the economic front. He is gambling that if the economy improves sufficiently, many of the reasons for dissatisfaction will fall away and Syrians will be less inclined to make demands in other areas. A successful economy coupled with his personal popularity will be the recipe for long-term survival. This may seem rather short-sighted in light of historical lessons one can take from other countries that have tried that method, but Assad has been much impressed with China’s evolution along those lines (although anyone who knows China well realizes that its resistance to socio-political liberalization is an ongoing battle and that a successful economy does not immunize one from a society’s desire for freedoms).

Something that is sometimes forgotten is that neither Assad nor any of his closest confidantes (other than his wife) have real experience living in open, successful societies. They are a very inward group, interested in their own survival, in enjoying a luxurious and quasi-feudal lifestyle, and in furthering their wealth and power. They are not equipped to provide Assad with advice based on true understanding of how open economies and societies work or how to succeed in a global economy. One way or another, virtually every close advisor brought on board with international knowledge and experience has been undermined by the clique and fallen by the way side. I can remember long personal discussions with three such people, who were themselves often bewildered by the close-minded responses they got to suggestions and advice they put forward. Thus, while Assad genuinely wishes to see the Syrian economy grow, he does not really know how to make it happen.

As an example, in meetings with Assad and some of his senior advisors and ministers, I had discussions about the importance of the “rule of law“ to economic development. I often asked: what company will invest millions of dollars to establish operations in Syria, if it cannot be confident that the legal system will treat it fairly when the inevitable disputes arise? It was obvious in those kinds of discussions that while everyone nodded their heads in agreement, there was little true understanding of the implications. Nor was there any serious effort to consider how the legal system, as just one example of an area badly in need of reform, might be revamped to create a key underpinning for attracting foreign investment.

To sum up, we should not be fooled. Assad and his regime have one overriding objective and that is to survive. He believes that Syria’s situation is different from that of countries like Egypt, Tunis and Libya, and it is different: not in terms of its problems but in its demographics, history and internal power structure. Assad is confident that these factors, along with his popularity and with Syrian reluctance to gamble on freedoms that could open the door to sectarian strife, are among the reasons he did not need to offer much in his speech and why he believes he can regain the upper hand without offering the kinds of reforms that will undermine the regime

He saw what happened in Tunis and Egypt when they began offering concessions under public pressure. He has opted to project an image of strength and not concede anything vital to his control. In fact, it is somewhat surprising that he has made some concessions on the religious front so soon after his speech. These concessions will play well to the more conservative elements of Syrian society, including in Deraa, where so much of the trouble has originated, but they will be read by many as a sign of weakness and nervousness on the part of the regime. While I would be surprised to see the Emergency Law revoked, if that did happen, I would expect it to be replaced by other laws allowing the regime to exercise essentially the same controls.

Even if Assad survives this time, the seeds of his regime’s downfall have already been sown. It is just a matter of when it will happen. If the recent changes in Egypt and Tunis lead to greater freedoms and more democratic and successful societies, the death knell for Assad and company will occur sooner. On the other hand, should those countries fall into violence and chaos or find themselves under the thumb of yet another autocratic regime, Syrians may be less eager to divest themselves of Assad, who is likeable, a known quantity, and reasonably benign towards those who behave.

A key factor in determining the duration of his reign will be the health of the economy. There is an incredible degree of frustration and hopelessness among the Syrian youth. At some point, this will boil over, unless more jobs can be created. If the gap between the rich and the poor continues to grow, pressures will build. Syria’s oil supplies are dwindling and the revenues from exporting oil are decreasing. Barring the discovery of major new oil or gas fields, this will put more pressure on the Syrian economy to fund various subsidies, to overcome the effects of the current multi-year drought, to offer health and other services to its people. Without direct foreign investment that actually creates jobs, the prospects are bleak. They will remain so as long as Syria remains a pariah state and as long as it is unable to reform its institutions and create a more open, law-based society and economy. Unfortunately, I do not believe that Assad has either the knowledge or the skills to make that happen. Even if he did, at some point reform will be in conflict with his survival. When that happens, either reforms or Assad and his regime will be shown the door.

Syria Sacks Head of State-Run Tishreen Newspaper, Arabiya Says
2011-04-09, By Massoud A. Derhally

April 9 (Bloomberg) — Syria sacked Samira al-Masalma the editor-in-chief of state-run newspaper Tishreen after she blamed security forces for killings of protesters, Al-Arabiya television reported today without saying where it obtained the information…..[she cried in the interview over relatives of hers from Daraa.]

Syria’s race against the clock
Posted By Peter Harling Monday, April 11, 2011

The Syria we knew is no longer. Together with the rest of the region, it has entered an era of uncertainty and incessant flux. For now it has settled into a slow-motion revolution, as protests both fail to reach a critical mass and prod authorities to successfully respond to far-reaching demands. Two conflicting trends currently coexist. The regime has laid out a body of reforms which have the potential to win over enough popular support to ensure a peaceful way forward. But it has also failed to bring violence to an end, whether due to senseless scare tactics, well-ingrained habits of the security apparatus, possible provocations staged by the regime’s many enemies (from dissident members of the ruling family to hostile parties abroad to home-grown die-hard Islamists) and the increasingly tense general atmosphere — or a mix of all the above.

Although many view the present through the prism of the past, with memories still fresh of the ruthlessness with which the Muslim Brotherhood-led uprising of the early 1980s was crushed, it is doubtful that all-out repression today would put an end to protests that enjoy a much broader base — even if they have taken on Islamist undertones in some places. Alternatively, quick-fixes, cosmetic changes and empty promises would only postpone an explosion.

This leaves Syrians the choice between two perilous journeys: either radical reform or outright revolution. Neither offers easy answers to the deep-seated issues at stake, including preserving Syria’s fragile secular model, addressing its severe economic predicament and maintaining its regional standing. …..

If Assad falls, we will see all the region’s alliances unravel
Guardian (GB): 2011-04-11
Patrick Seale

Syria’s president is not the only one nervously monitoring the protests. Regime change there will reshape the Middle East. The Syrian regime, long a key player in the Middle East power play, has decided to fight back with full force. It seems determined to defeat the tidal wave of popular protest that smashed the regimes of Tunisia and Egypt, that is threatening rulers …

….Post-Mubarak Egypt is likely to distance itself from Israel and rejoin the Arab camp, while Syria’s alliance with Iran – unpopular with the Sunni- majority population, – could be endangered by any change of regime in Damascus. Other significant changes to the regional geopolitical map include the emergence of Turkey as a beneficent player, promoting trade and conflict resolution, and Iraq’s slow recovery as a major Arab power from the devastation inflicted on it by Tony Blair, George Bush and America’s pro-Israel neocons.Are we then about to witness some reshuffling of alliances formed 30 years ago? Iraq and Iran, who fought a bitter war in the 1980s, could well draw closer now both are under Shia leadership. Together they will form a formidable power block. America’s colossal investment in men and treasure in the Iraq war will seem vainer than ever.

Some things, however, could remain the same. Once the crisis abates, Turkey will continue to cultivate its friendship with Syria whatever the nature of its regime, because Syria will remain a key pivot of Turkey’s ambitious Arab policy. Turkey may indeed come to replace Iran as Syria’s main regional ally.

Nor is the crisis likely to reduce Syria’s influence in Lebanon. No Syrian regime of any colour can tolerate a hostile government in Beirut. Its security – especially vis-a-vis Israel – is intimately tied to that of its Lebanese neighbour. The wave of protest engulfing the Arab world has pushed the Arab-Israeli conflict into second place. But that can only be temporary. Until it is resolved, the region will know no stability and little peace.

Time: Can the Syrian Regime Divide and Conquer Its Opposition? 2011-04-09

The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been pursuing a divide-and-conquer strategy against dissent, using specific carrots-and-sticks to appease and repress the country’s complicated collection of tribal, ethnic and religious interests. …

From POMED:

U.S. Policymakers and Analysts Debate on Syria: Human rights activists and members of Congress criticized the administration’s “tepid” response to violence in Syria, as well as SenatorJohn Kerry (D-MA) and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton references to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a “reformer.”  Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-NY) said that anyone who thought Assad was a reformer was “fooling themselves.” Bilal Y. Saab argued that a collapse of the regime would have ripple effects across the Middle East. Gary Gambill examined Assad‘s survival strategy for remaining in power.  Nicholas Blanford analyzes the recent events in Syria and questions whether Assad will be effective in attempting to divide and conquer the opposition.

Cage and Wave « P U L S E
By Robin Yassin-Kassab

This interview with Syria Comment’s Joshua Landis is well worth watching for background on Syria’s sectarian divisions and their influence on current events. I agree with most of what he says but I differ with his interpretation. …

Freedom of expression: Egyptian Military Court Sentences Blogger To 3 Years
by The Associated Press,April 11, 2011

An Egyptian military tribunal convicted a blogger of insulting the army and sentenced him to three years in prison, further raising activists’ fears that the army is against greater freedom of expression and political reform……

The Syrian revolution struck home yesterday. My wife, Manar Qash`ur [Kachour], burst into tears last night as she read the Facebook page that has kept her updated on events in her hometown, Latakia. Lt. Colonel Yasir Qash`ur, who was Manar’s cousin and 40 years old, was shot in Banyas on Sunday. He was one of two Lt. Colonels and 10 military personnel killed – more were wounded. Yasir’s funeral was held in the village this morning – Monday. My brother-in-law, Firas, and father-in-law, Shaaban, both attended.

Addendum: Tuesday morning. [I am adding Youtube video of the funeral held Monday in Beit al-Murj, our village, a day after writing this post.]

Yasir’s parents have a house in Manar”s village, Beit al-Murj, where we spend summers. Yasir’s father, Ahmad Qash`ur is married to Yamna Qash`ur; they are first cousins; Yumna is the sister of my father-in-law. They live two doors down from our house in the village and are a leading family in the community. Yasir’s father, Ahmad, worked as a lawyer with the oil refinery in Banyas. Both Yasir’s brother and sister are dentists in Banyas. Their family house in the village, where they spend summers, always had the door open and tea boiling in the courtyard. Every time we drove into the village, we would stop to say hello and share a tea or would yell greetings out the window of the car as we drove by. Yasir had a great sense of humor and was easy going. He was handsome and known for his striking blue eyes and fair complexion. He married a girl from Banyas, Rudaynah, who is a teacher.

Rudayna, Yasir’s wife

Manar remembers that when they were about 13 years old, Yasir was trying to learn to whistle. He was unable to make a sound despite hard work and constant effort. One night after coming home late and washing up in the bathroom, he managed to whistle. proudly, he whistled as loudly as he could. He woke every one in the house. His father came into the bathroom and slapped him for arousing the family from its happy sleep. Yasir’s whistling triumph was unappreciated except as village lore. The retelling always roused a hearty laugh from everyone at his expense.

Ahmad and Nur Qash`ur

Yasir has two children, Ahmad and Nur, 10 and 12 years of age. He just finished building his first apartment in Banyas after 20 years of serving in the military. He built it on top of his parents’ house. The shutters had yet to be hung; it was not painted and much of the internal trim had yet to be added. But it was enough to move in. Last summer, when Manar and the kids were in the village, Yasir’s father told Manar, “Finally Yasir has his own house. I don’t want anything else. Now I am very satisfied.”

My sons, Kendall Shaaban and Jonah (Yunis) Firas, played with his children in the village the last several summers.

My father-in-law said on the phone this morning that it seemed that supporters of ex-Vice President Khaddam, who was from Banyas, were behind the attack. It is said that they had set a trap for the military unit. All this is speculation, however. We know precious little about who is killing whom in Syria. Allegations are numerous. Real knowledge is scarce.

Yasir’s mother, Yamna Qash`ur, sitting on the balcony of her brother’s house in the village. Her sister in-law is cooking bread

My son Jonah with two of Yasir’s nieces in Beit al-Murj

Beit al-Murj viewed from our balcony

Boys tending sheep down the road.

More of Shabulla and Jonah’s cousins in the village

Yasir’s grave

The news report by al-Watan about Banyas

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From the Comment Section:

• I think the regime needs to go but not Libya-style and not overnight. After 48 years of albaath rule, political life in Syria came to an almost total arrest. I agree with one thing Bashar said when he suggested that the country needs to improve its educational,economic and judicial system before we can expect a western style democracy,assuming that this is acceptable to islamists,the problem is that albaath is responsible for much of Syria’s problems today and can not be trusted to initiate reform.  The moment of truth is coming when elections start at the local and then national level.if independents are allowed to run and if the 8th article of the institution is removed,then we can start to believe that Bashar is finally fulfilling his promises. Until things changed on the ground,no Syrian should trust this regime. As for those who claim that nobody is shooting or burning except the government militias,I say this is true in many cases but it is not true in places where the locals witnessed the killing of security officers and the destruction of property done by “freedom seekers”. The opposition has too much to lose if they allow thugs to infiltrate their ranks. Finally, do not underestimate the power of the MB and its sympathizers in Syria, they are everywhere,and they are willing to install a regime similar to Hamas in Gaza if Syrians allow them to,I still think there is a way out of this but the pressure on the regime,through peaceful protest,should not stop.
• Let us get this straight. It takes less than a day to amend the constitution, changing the minimum age of the president to be from 40 to 34 years to perfectly fit for Bashar, but it takes weeks? months? years? to implement a law that would allow opposition parties to exist? It takes studies and god knows how long to remove the state of emergency? You have to be kidding if you still have faith in this regime.
• Anti regime people should isolate those who commit violence and carry arms. It is obvious that some protesters are thugs and criminals who are actually indirectly serving the regime.pretending that all protesters are peaceful is not going to help the cause of freedom. I am afraid that Syrians may eventually rise against chaos instead of rising against the government.give absolute freedom and weapons to uneducated unemployed people who are in their late teens or early twenties and see what happens.
• I guess bisho will no longer be able to drive his car solo through the streets of Damascus like before claiming that the people love him so much that he doesn’t need bodyguards… See mr. president, things have already changed and you don’t even know it!!
• I am very disturbed by the calls for blood i have been reading over the past few days. Where did all this hate come from, and where was it hidden. I am fearful for Syria….
• do you really believe for a second that if things become stable for the president he will, or would be capable of eliminating the loyalty requirement. Far from it, as its value would have been demonstrated, its price will likely become too high and may include more privileges and far more impunities, especially after a period of calm, when people start talking about what really happened and who are those mysterious thugs. On economy, how dreamy are you or anyone else to think for a second that any Syrian government under the same regime will ever have a chance in attracting investment again. To begin with, the facade of stability has been shattered irreparably. The regime had to give up any shred of economic liberalization in order to bribe the people, who seem to have rejected these bribes.
• Those armed gangs have very good organization and communication system equal to that of the security forces, they know where the demonstrations are going to happen and they manage to infiltrate the security cordon and mingle with the crowds before they start shooting at protesters and the poor regular police !!! WHO ARE THEY KIDDING
• this is an answer to asad who gave a free hand to extremist rafidi theocrats to build propaganda centers in Syria in which are insulted Omar,Osman,Abu Bakr ,Aisha ,99 % of the sahaba ,but also Salahadin al Ayyoubi ,Nur Al Din Zangi….the regime has been warned.
  Thanks to this awarness ,Syria will never be like Iraq (and Lebanon),a play ground for the iranian theocracy.
  It’s now clear that you are not against this kind of marginal extremism but your problem is mainstream Islam in general.
• It seems that the regime now is eradicating Wahhabis from Banias, though I am not sure what is exactly happening there. This war is far from being over. I think it is going to be long and it may last for months, just like the war with the Muslim Brothers.

• Egypt is going to be more and more Islamized, until the point when Sharia will be the law of the land. Look at Iran’s example. Is it an attractive example?…I don’t see a bright future for Egypt. The Islamists will gradually enforce a very repressive culture in Egypt and Egypt will fall into a black hole. … Qaddafi does not seem to be losing in Libya. …Do you know that Libya is a tribal Islamist society? Do you expect “democracy” to work in such a society? These assumptions about automatic democracy in the Arab countries sound too naive to me…. As for the the future of reform in Syria and the economy, I am not optimistic either. The picture is gloomy. I don’t think Bashar will seriously reform anything. Before the uprising there was economic reform and some secularization effort. Now we have lost both of these, so there is nothing left.
• There is no half free, half democracy or half rights. Syrian are asking (or should be asking) for no less than a complete freedom and equality including the freedom of religion, freedom of expression, freedom of choice, equality between men and women, equality regardless of regions, sects, areas or ethnic background. If this is what the Syrian revolution is about, then I am all for it, otherwise it’s another crime against Syria.

• Despite of all what happened, I am optimistic, on the political front, and independent of the outcomes of the current cricis in Syria, I can not imagine the next presidential election in 2014 to be carried out in the same laughable manners we are used to. Taboos have been broken, and there is no turning back. Iran is going through another election around the same time. And things will be really different than before.That off course assuming the Syrian regime manages to enact some of the reforms required for it’s survival, a questionable proposition, so far.

A Joud from the large industrial family in Latakia says that things are pretty bad in Lattakia. Joud Enterprises are pretty much shut down. Workers are not showing up for work and orders for products are declining.

The Syrian government has recently announced an increase in salaries and benefits. On March 24 pay for civil servants and pensioners was raised between 20 and 30 percent and the minimum wage went up by some 50 percent.

The increase has affected all five levels of employment. If you happened to have no formal education, your starting salary will be $259 a month. The highest that a person in this fifth and bottom group will ever hit will be $592 after your many years of service. If you happened to be on the other extreme in education credentials, a person with a PhD will start with $475.69 and will face a cap of $1030.

In other words, the difference in starting salary between a PhD holder and an elementary school dropout is $216 a month. A person earning a PhD will make $7.2 in extra income a day than a person who quits school.

The difference in starting salary between a PhD and high school (Bacc.) holder incidentally is $156 a month ($5.2 a day) http://all4syria.info/web/archives/2974

Continued Protests End Hopes of Economic Recovery [Jihad Yazigi’s Syria Report]

The demonstrations held across Syria last Friday have dashed any hopes of a rapid end to the current wave of protests as well as prospects for a quick economic recovery….

Syrian Authorities Formalise Harder Approach: [Jihad Yazigi’s Syria Report]

The Syrian Government has formalized a harder approach to protests as Said Bkheitan, the deputy head of the Baath Party, said that the situation now requires “deterring and decisive decisions” to restore order…..

CNN report: Syria: a sleeping giant

Ex-Finance Minister Hussein says that Heating oil subsidy should be increased.

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Death toll rises amid fresh Syrian protests
Amnesty International, Monday, 8 April 2011

At least 171 people are believed to have been killed during three weeks of unrest in Syria, Amnesty International said today after at least eight more fatalities during protests. “The alarming reports coming from Syria today show that the authorities have not altered their violent methods for dealing with dissent,” said Philip Luther, Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Amnesty International…..

Stocks: According to Ehsani

The Egyptian stock market fell by 29% from the middle of jan till march 24. It has since rebounded by about 5%. The loss there as of today is -22.8% compared to Syria’s -20%. In Tunisia they also fell by -22% at the beginning and after a brief bounce, the current loss in that market is -17%

Syria Tries to Placate Sunnis and Kurds
By LIAM STACK and KATHERINE ZOEPF
Published: April 6, 2011

CAIRO — The government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria offered several unusual gestures on Wednesday intended to earn it good will among Sunnis and Kurds.

The government announced that Syria’s first and only casino, which had enraged Islamists when it opened on New Year’s Eve, would be closed. It also said that schoolteachers who had been dismissed last year for wearing the niqab, a type of face veil, would be allowed back to work.

These concessions and others were made public as activists were calling for renewed demonstrations to be held on Thursday, which is the 64th anniversary of the formation of the Baath Party, which has been in power since 1963. Protests demanding expanded political rights and a multiparty democracy have spread to cities across Syria over the last three weeks, posing a highly unusual challenge to Mr. Assad.

Ayman Abdel Nour, a Syrian writer and activist who was a childhood friend of Mr. Assad’s, said that about 1,200 women would be affected by the niqab decision, which was the most immediately significant result of a meeting Tuesday between Mr. Assad and a popular Islamist leader, Said Ramadan al-Bouti.

Other concessions offered at the meeting, Mr. Abdel Nour said, included permission to create an Islamist satellite channel and to form an Islamist political party. The party, he said, would be similar to the AKP in Turkey.

“It will be a moderate Islamist party loyal to the regime,” Mr. Abdel Nour said. “This is a very important deal. The regime is trying to weaken the demonstrators.”

Mr. Assad also promised to give citizenship to stateless people within Syria, and to make a national holiday of the Kurdish New Year’s festival Nayrouz, Mr. Abdel Nour said. An estimated 200,000 Kurds living in Syria are stateless, international human rights groups said.

“If the Islamists and the Kurds enter the demonstrations, the regime will lose control,” Mr. Abdel Nour said. “The president is trying to delay the big explosion.”

The unrest began three weeks ago in the southern city of Dara’a after the arrest of a group of teenagers for writing antigovernment graffiti.

The protests have since spread to the coastal city of Latakia, the crowded Damascus suburbs and the remote Kurdish cities of the northeast. The government has responded harshly, pledging political reform but also violently dispersing crowds, arresting scores and accusing protesters of complicity with a foreign conspiracy. The clashes with security forces have killed as many as 173 people, according to figures released by Insan, a Syrian human rights group, on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, security forces maintained a tight grip on Dara’a, where residents are reported to be conducting a general strike. Ahmed Al Sayasna, a local religious leader reached by telephone, said that security forces were stationed outside the town and that shops were shuttered.

The strike began on Monday, the day after Mr. Assad appointed a former lieutenant general, Mohamed Khaled Al Hanous, governor of the restive region. Activists rejected his appointment as too little, too late.

“The issue is not the governor; the issue is the whole system,” said Wassim Tarif, the executive director of Insan. “Who shot at people in Dara’a? It was the security forces backed up by the military. That is the president’s responsibility.”

In another development, Syrian state media reported Tuesday night that two policemen in the Damascus suburb of Kafr Batna had been shot and killed. The report blamed their death on unidentified gunmen but offered few details.

Mr. Tarif said that a peaceful demonstration was held in the suburb on Friday and that it was followed by two days of police raids and arrests.

Liam Stack reported from Cairo, and Katherine Zoepf from New York.

Beware the void under tyranny
By Robert Kaplan, April 06 2011 11:29

Ivory Coast is a showcase of events in the Middle East. The issue is not democracy, but the threat of anarchy, writes Robert Kaplan
Read the full article at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c282d1b4-607e-11e0-9fcb-00144feab49a.html

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