Protesters Want Changes To Syria’s Power Structure : NPR – Listen to 5 minute clip
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The Assad family, which has ruled Syria for the last 40 years, belongs to the Alawite religious sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam. It includes only 12 percent of the country’s population. Syria expert Joshua Landis talks to Steve Inskeep about how the family has maintained its power.

5 minute clip – click here

Transcript:

STEVE INSKEEP, host:

It’s MORNING EDITION from NPR News. Im Steve Inskeep, good morning.

The secretary-general of the United Nations wants an investigation of Syria. Ban Ki-moon is asking why the government used tanks and live ammunition against civilians.

It is hard to get answers out of Syria right now. The country is largely closed to Western reporters. We do know that there have been protests in some cities. And we also know something of the Syrian power structure. The Assad family has controlled Syria for decades. They belong to the Alawite religious sect, an offshoot of Shiia Islam.

Professor JOSHUA LANDIS (Director, Center for Middle East Studies, University of Oklahoma): What you have today in Syria as an odd political structure, where the hell Alawites dominate the presidency, the security forces, the intelligence units, and they’re only 12 percent of the population.

INSKEEP: Syria expert Joshua Landis lived in the country in the past, and explains how the inside family has maintained its rule.

Prof. LANDIS: It is based on the family links and sectarian links. Syria spent almost 20 years as – you know, some people call it a banana republic – but it was extremely unstable. There were coups during the ’50s and ’60s all the time. The Assad’s figured out a way to stabilize Syria and that was by using traditional loyalties. These people at the top, they believe that there’s going to be civil war if they’re overthrown. They believe that they are the secular leadership.

Now, the opposition denies all this and says this is complete bunkum. Syria has split into two parts today and they’re not talking to each other. They both, in a sense, live in different worlds and they see Syria with different realities. And that’s the problem, is there is extremely – Syria is very split.

INSKEEP: The split being the people who are in charge, the Alawite sect and the people around Assad, and everybody else.

Prof. LANDIS: Well, there’s a lot of Sunnis. The Sunni upper classes, although they are critical of the regime – they see its faults – they’re clinging to it because they fear civil war. They fear Iraq. And many people in Syria see Iraq as a model for what may become of Syria, because the opposition does not have a leadership.

The great strength of the opposition is that it does not have a leadership, because the regime has not been able to arrest the people or find them. This is a movement led by young activists who are in their 20’s and early 30s, who are not centralized and who come from every different walk of life in Syria.

That strength, though, is going to become a real weakness if the regime becomes destabilized.

INSKEEP: We have mainly heard, in recent days and weeks, about protests in the southern city of Daraa. There have been rumors or reports of protests in other places but not nearly as large.

Do you have any sense of whether the opposition to Assad is nationwide?

Prof. LANDIS: The opposition is nationwide. Syrians have lived under this regime for 40 years. They’re fed up with the corruption. They’re fed up with the lack of freedoms. They want change. Many do not want to overthrow the system. They want to work through the reforms.

We have seen, in Damascus and Aleppo, the two major cities of Syria, people have not come out on the streets in big numbers. Demonstrations have started in the suburbs of the cities, the poorer suburbs, but they have not reached the center of the cities. That has to happen for this movement to really overthrow the regime.

INSKEEP: Why hasn’t it happened?

Mr. LANDIS: Because they’re frightened. The sort of middle-class, the stolid, conservative middle-class and upper middle classes, don’t want the civil war.

INSKEEP: It’s interesting when you say that people are frightened, you didn’t say that they were frightened first of Assad and his security forces, although I’m sure the people are. But that their greatest fear was what comes after Assad.

Mr. LANDIS: Yes. I mean there are a million Iraqi refugees in Syria. Three hundred thousand of them are Christians. Ten percent of Syria, six to 10 percent of Syria is Christian. The Christians have worked themselves into a lather of anxiety about the prospect of being ethnically cleansed if the state collapses. They’re clinging to this regime. Other minorities are doing the same.

This, increasingly as it moves on, although the slogans of the opposition are: unity, freedom, democracy, there is a boiling sectarian tension underneath it that has people very frightened.

INSKEEP: Joshua Landis lived for years in Syria. He is director of the University of Oklahoma’s Center for Middle East Studies.

Thanks very much.

Prof. LANDIS: It’s a pleasure.

Italy, France urge EU sanctions as Syria violence escalates

France, Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain summoned on Wednesday respective Syrian ambassadors to condemn the use of violence against protesters by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Inhabitant of Damascus (A retired diplomat living in Damascus who prefers to remain anonymous)

This is a sad time in Syria. The local version of the ‘Arab Uprising’ is now 5 weeks old, and entering a new phase.  Human rights organisations estimate 453 have been killed. The expulsion of foreign media (with the exception of Al Jazeera, coralled in central Damascus); the one sided propagandist coverage of state media; and the limitations of protester YouTube clips, severely limits local and international understanding of what is going on.

What is clear is that the pro-democracy movement has failed to get significant numbers on the streets.  Their biggest demonstration appears to have been in Homs at 20,000.  So how many have protested in the country?  I estimate 400,000 max.  That is less than 2% of Syria’s 22 million.  98% of the population have stayed home and while yearning for more freedoms, participation in the running of the country, and a relaxation of the police state, do not wish to face the likely chaos that an overthrow of the Batthi regime would entail.  The Iraq and Lebanon situations are ongoing reminders of what might occur. There has been very little enthusiasm in Damascus (except in the outlying suburb of Douma), or in Aleppo.  Nearly half Syria’s population lives in these two cities. The pro-democracy movement has failed to organise effectively, and lacks cohesion. The fact remains that while Assad’s reputation has been severely dented by the government’s ineptitude and brutality in dealing with the protesters and the so-called reform agenda, most Syrians respect Assad enough to see him as a hope for meaningful reform.  While they will not give him the benefit of the doubt forever, the fear of chaos, including secular conflict, is very real. In this respect they see the pro-democracy movement as naive and out of touch with reality.

State TV has run detailed footage of the funerals of security force personnel for around 3 weeks.  25 were buried yesterday (26 April), names read, families interviewed, and another 21 today. They were apparently killed in Deraa.  This coverage in my view presents hard evidence that there are indeed groups shooting soldiers and police, and shooting at firemen and ambulance drivers. I estimate that around 60 service personnel have died.  The regime claims that there are ‘armed gangs/terrorists’ shooting at security forces and civilians. The regime claims that some have been arrested, and have confessed to being paid and armed (through mosque contacts).  The ‘gang members’ have appeared on TV with caches of weapons. These claims cannot be independently verified.

Who killed these security personnel?  The regime does not accuse the pro-democracy movement. This is significant. Who might these armed gangs be? There are plenty of likely suspects.  Syria has many enemies. Lebanese sunnis? Lebanese phalangist Christians; sunni Muslim radicals, including the Muslim Brotherhood; the Kurdish minority; Israel’s mossad; disaffected Alawi insiders including ex-VP Kaddam; fringe elements of the security forces?  All are possible. The region is awash with weapons and the desert and mountain borders are porous. If armed gangs are responsible, which seems highly likely, this is a complication that sets Syria apart from Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen. This dilemma should be recognised as states rush to get on the condemn Assad bandwagon.

It is also difficult to obtain verifiable information on who is responsible for the estimated 453 civilian deaths. With no independent media on the ground, and state media not providing this coverage, international media must rely on YouTube. And power cuts to Daraa and Douma severely limit internet access. (The regime clearly has something to hide.) Many of the YouTube clips show unarmed protesters coming under fire and being killed and wounded.  For the most part they do not show who is doing the shooting.  Some clips however do strongly indicate that security forces are responsible.  It is clear that there have been orders to fire on unarmed civilians. Assad admitted as much when he gave orders, since amended after armed attacks, for security forces not to carry live ammunition. Most of the civilian deaths probably have been caused by the security forces.  However some armed groups may be causing havoc by also shooting civilians. The fact that some units of the regime’s security apparatus do not wear uniforms (we see them around Damascus with their AKs every day) adds to confusion.

As the UN Security Council considers a response to the tragic and worsening Syrian situation, it is important to UNSC credibility that the circumstances facing the Assad regime are accurately considered. While the current crackdowns in Deraa and Douma seem dire, any international response should be based on the known facts. Who is killing Syrian security personnel?

More than 230 ruling Baath members resign in Syria
April 27, 2001

Another 203 members of Syria’s ruling Baath party announced their resignation Wednesday in protest of the deadly crackdown on protesters, raising the number to 233, according to lists seen by AFP.

The latest group to step down were members from the Houran region, which covers the flashpoint town of Daraa in the south of the country. Earlier 30 members resigned from the restive city of Banias in northwest Syria.

“The security services have demolished the values with which [it] grew up. We denounce and condemn everything that has taken place and announce with regret our resignation from the party,” they said in a signed statement.

“Practices of the security services against our unarmed citizens … are against all human values and the slogans of the party,” they wrote.

The Baath party signatories from the Banias region condemned “the house raids and the indiscriminate use of live fire against people, homes, mosques and churches.”

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has been rocked by unprecedented protests since March 15 demanding reform and an end to a draconian emergency law.

Shock in Syria: the Messy and Unlikely Alternatives for Bashar
by David W. Lesch
For Syria Comment

Early this year, Syrian President Bashar al-Asad portrayed his country as being different, almost immune from the uprisings that had beset Tunisia and Egypt.  The mouthpieces of the Syrian regime consistently echoed this arrogance, even to the point of siding with the protestors in their Arab brethren countries.  They pointed out that the septuagenarian and octogenarian leaders of these states were out of touch with their populations. They were also corrupt lackeys of the United States.  The implication, of course, was that Asad, a relatively young 45, was in touch with the Arab youth. He also confronted the United States and Israel in the region and supported the resistance forces of Hamas and Hizbullah, thus brandishing credentials that played well in the Arab street.

This may have bought him some time, but it was a misreading of the situation—or denial of it.  Having met with Asad a number of times over the past 7 years, I can almost guarantee that he was absolutely shocked when the uprisings in the Arab world started to seep into his own country.  I believe he truly thought he was safe and secure…and popular beyond condemnation.  But not in today’s new Middle East, where the stream of information cannot be controlled as it has been in the past. The perfect storm of higher commodity prices, Wikileaks, and the youth bulge—and their weapon of mass destruction, the social media—have bared for all to see widespread socio-economic problems, corruption, and restricted political space, and authoritarian regimes can no longer shape or contain this information.  In this Syria was no different.

One might recognize the stages of shock in Asad, similar to the five stages of grief. Following his denial, Asad displayed incredulity, even anger that fueled a blatant triumphalism, apparent in his initial speech of March 30 that incorrectly placed the bulk of the blame for the uprisings in Syria on conspirators and foreign enemies, thus ignoring the very real domestic problems that lay at the root of public frustration and despair.

Asad then reached the bargaining stage, where one attempts to do anything possible to postpone one’s fate.  There is recognition of problems and attempts to address them, apparent in Asad’s speech to his new cabinet on April 16, when he announced the lifting of the almost 50-year state of emergency law, among other proposed reforms.  But the protests and associated violence continued. The most dangerous phase could be if Asad withdraws into seclusion, trying to come to grips with the reality of the situation.  This is dangerous because Bashar might cede his leadership role to others, and filling the void could be hardliners who advocate an even harsher crackdown.  This may be what is happening now. One hopes that Asad passes through this stage very quickly and reasserts himself toward the final one, that of acceptance.

If I could visit with Bashar al-Asad today I would tell him that he has three choices.  First, he could continue to unleash the hounds and brutally repress the uprising.  He would stay in power, but then he would become an international pariah and join the ranks of the Saddam Hussein’s and Pol Pot’s of this world, and he would eventually most likely meet the same fate.  I know Asad fairly well.  He is at base a likable guy, a good family man. Believe me he does not want this legacy. On the other hand, he has been isolated before by the United States and the international community, especially following the assassination of Rafiq Hariri in 2005…and survived, even prospered. There is less international leverage against Syria than was the case with Egypt, Tunisia and others. Perhaps he believes he can survive again. It is currently a dangerous phase for both sides.  The regime’s crackdown is playing right into the hands of opposition elements.  With every death more Syrians will coalesce around the idea that Bashar must go…and nothing short of this will suffice; however, this could be dangerous for the opposition because if the regime thinks its only choices are elimination or survival, it will obviously choose the latter and do what is necessary.

Second, he could try to muddle through as he has, with a mix of reforms and crackdowns. The latest escalation by the regime, sanctioning a more prominent role for the military, does not necessarily indicate an abandonment of this approach.  The regime could be engaging in a show of force to deter others from joining the uprising and creating the critical mass necessary to upend the regime, as happened in Egypt. He could also be demonstrating military support for the regime, and any hopes of separating the two, similar to what happened in Egypt, are superfluous. The regime also does not want to look weak, and it could very well be that the government might announce another set of reforms soon…and wanting to do so from a position of strength rather than being seen to be giving into the demands of the protesters.  But the opposition is not going away, the demands are getting stiffer, the protestors bolder.  This could lead to a long-term cycle of spasmodic protests and associated violence. If this back and forth continues, Bashar will be incrementally de-legitimized, especially if the economic effects of political instability exacerbate an already stressed Syrian economy and undermine critical support for the regime. Sooner or later, one of three things will happen: Bashar, his wife, and his children will be hauled away in chains like Mubarak and his family; they will be murdered either by masses storming the gates or elements close to him who, seeing the writing on the wall, switch sides; or they could escape to join the growing dictator-in-exile club, living a life of anonymity and regret in a strange land.

Third, he could accept the inevitable (and the reality of these other less desirable alternatives) and do what is in the long-term best interests of himself and his country before it is too late (and it may already be):  establish a new precedent in the Arab world as well as a positive legacy for himself by announcing real political reform, including new party and election laws, the elimination of article 8 of the Syrian constitution that secures the rule of the Baath party, and, most importantly perhaps, setting presidential terms limits.  The days of individuals—or father and son tag teams—ruling 20, 30, or 40 years are over.  People want to choose their own leaders and want governments responsive to their demands and changing circumstances, not ossified, corrupt regimes.  Bashar needs to address the people directly, not indirectly via a sycophantic parliament and cabinet.  He made his mark in Syria because he seemed different.  He mingled with everyday Syrians and was not the aloof, secluded tyrant. His wife has been quite visible and civically active.  He needs to look into the camera and address his people, admitting the mistakes, redressing them, and mapping out a way forward. If Asad does this, who knows, maybe he could still be president for one of these new presidential terms, riding a new wave of popularity with the silent majority and an organizational lead over others. After that, however, spending more time with your family and being an elder statesman who is respected for doing what was thought to be impossible is not such a bad outcome.

David W. Lesch is Professor of Middle East history at Trinity University in San Antonio, TX.  Among his books are: The New Lion of Damascus: Bashar al-Asad and Modern Syria; The Arab-Israeli Conflict: A History; The Middle East and the United States: A Historical and Political Reassessment; and 1979: The Year That Shaped the Middle East.

The epic Arab battle reaches Syria
By Rami G. Khouri

Syria is now the critical country to watch in the Arab world, after the homegrown regime changes in Tunisia and Egypt, and the imminent changes in Yemen and Libya.

The Syrian regime headed by President Bashar Assad is now seriously challenged by a combination of strong forces within and outside the country. His current policy of using force to quell demonstrators and making minimal reform promises has lost him credibility with many of his own citizens, largely due to his inability to respond to his citizens’ reasonable demands for democratic governance. His downfall is not imminent, but is now a real possibility.
The next few weeks will be decisive for Assad, because in the other Arab revolts the third-to-sixth weeks of street protests were the critical moment that determined whether the regime would collapse or persist. Syria is now in its fourth week. Having lost ground to street demonstrators recently, the Assad-Baathist-dominated secular Arab nationalist state’s response in the weeks ahead will likely determine whether it will collapse in ruins or regroup and live on for more years.

Assad should recognize many troubling signs that add up to a threatening trend. The number and size of demonstrations have grown steadily since late March, making this a nationwide revolt. Protesters’ demands have hardened, as initial calls for political reform and anti-corruption measures now make way for open calls for the overthrow of the regime and the trial of the ruling elite. Some portraits and statues of the current and former president are being destroyed, and government buildings attacked. More protesters openly call for the security services to be curbed – an unprecedented and important sign of the widespread popular loss of fear of security agencies that always bodes ill for such centralized systems of power.

Many of the Syrian protest leaders and human rights groups are coordinating to form a unified movement that makes coherent demands of the regime, reflecting widespread indigenous citizen concerns that cannot be credibly dismissed as the work of Islamic radicals or foreign agents. Shooting the protesters has failed to stop them, and has only brought out larger crowds on subsequent days – especially when mourners in funerals for yesterday’s dead are themselves shot dead. A few public figures have resigned in protest at the use of arms against demonstrators, and the several reform concessions by Assad seem to have been widely dismissed.

Assad’s big problem is that Syrians continue to express greater populist defiance of the regime, rather than compliance with either its political promises or its hard police measures. The core elements of the regime that he and his father have managed for over 40 years are now all being challenged openly and simultaneously, including the extended Assad family, the Baath Party apparatus, the government bureaucracy, and the numerous security agencies. These form a multi-layered but integrated power system whose center of gravity and policy coordination is the president. We are unlikely to see a Tunisian or Egyptian model of the security agencies abandoning the president to drift and be thrown out of power, while they remain in place. In Syria, either the entire system asserts itself and remains in control – with or without real reforms – or it is changed in its entirety.

Here is where the Assad government and power structure play on some of their assets. The two most significant ones are that: 1) most Syrians do not want to risk internal chaos or sectarian strife (a la Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen or Somalia) and might opt to remain with the Assad-dominated system that has brought them stability without democracy; and, 2) any changes in regime incumbency or policies in Syria will have enormous impact across the entire region and beyond, given Syria’s structural links or ongoing political ties with every major conflict and actor in the region, especially Lebanon and Hizbullah, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Israel, Palestine and Hamas, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Regime overthrow in Syria will trigger significant, cumulative and long-lasting repercussions in the realms of Arab-Israeli, Arab-Iranian, inter-Arab and Arab-Western relations, with winners and losers all around.

For some, this makes the Assad regime the Middle Eastern equivalent of the banks that were too big to allow to collapse during the American economic crisis three years ago, because the spillover effect would be too horrible to contemplate. The specter of sectarian-based chaos within a post-Assad Syria that could spread to other parts of the Middle East is frightening to many people. Yet many, perhaps most, Syrians indicate with their growing public protests that they see their current reality as more frightening – especially the lack of democracy, widespread corruption, human rights abuses, one-party rule, economic and environmental stress, excessive security dominance and burgeoning youth unemployment.

The epic battle between regime security and citizen rights that has characterized the modern Arab world for three long and weary generations enters its most important phase in Syria in the coming few weeks, with current Arab regional trends suggesting that citizens who collectively and peacefully demand their human and civil rights cannot be denied.

Rami G. Khouri is published twice weekly by THE DAILY STAR.

Global condemnation, but no action, against bloody Syria crackdown

By Liz Sly, April 26, Wash Post

BEIRUT — Syrian troops sustained their bloody crackdown against anti-government protesters in the southern town of Daraa for a second day Tuesday, drawing harsh condemnations but no specific plans for action against Damascus from U.S. and European leaders.

Reports from Daraa were sketchy because telephone lines were cut, the town was surrounded and the nearby border with Jordan was closed, but residents contacted by human rights groups indicated that government opponents were holding out in a mosque in the center of the town against an onslaught by government soldiers using tanks and armored personnel carriers…..

Agonist: Inside the Obama team’s “shift” on Syria
2011-04-26

Josh Rogin | April 26 FP [1] – The Obama administration is preparing a wide range of new actions to condemn the Syrian government’s brutal violence against protesters. However, U.S. officials still remain skeptical that they have the leverage to …

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came under criticism for her March 27 statement, “Many of the members of Congress of both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said they believe [Assad]’s a reformer.”

But based on the information at the time, most inside the administration didn’t feel she had said anything wrong. Multiple administration officials told The Cable that the administration had simply concluded, incorrectly, that the Syrian crisis would never grow this serious. That judgment informed their go-slow approach in responding to the protests.

But one month later, as the protest movement has gained strength and spread to cities throughout Syria, nobody inside the Obama administration is saying that now.

“A lot of people were wrong. The general assessment [inside the administration] was that this wouldn’t happen, that Assad was too good at nipping these movements in the bud and also that he was not afraid to be brutal,” one administration official said. “All of these things combined made this more of a surprise and made it much harder to deal with.”

Tom Donilon’s Arab Spring challenge
By David Ignatius, Tuesday, April 26, 8:00 PM

Tom Donilon, President Obama’s national security adviser, has a reputation as a “process guy,” meaning that he runs an orderly decision-making system at the National Security Council, and as a “political guy” with a feel for Capitol Hill and the media.

Now, facing the rolling crisis of the Arab Spring, Donilon has had to transform into the ultimate “policy guy” — coordinating administration strategy for a revolution that will alter the foreign-policy map for decades.

U.S. strategy is still a work in progress. That’s the consensus among some leading Donilon-watchers inside and outside the government. The national security adviser has tried to shape Obama’s intuitive support for the Arab revolutionaries into a coherent line. But as the crisis has unfolded, there has been tension between American interests and values, and a communications-oriented NSC staff has sometimes seemed to oscillate between the two.

“The focus is more on how it plays than on what to do,” says one longtime friend of Donilon. He credits Donilon as “a very smart political person” who has brought order to the planning process. But he cautions: “Tom is not a strategist. He’s a pol. That’s the heart of what he is and does.”

Another member of the inner circle similarly credits Donilon as “very inclusive of all the principals in the decision-making process.” But he worries that this White House is too focused on “message management.”

The uprisings in Egypt, Bahrain, Libya, Yemen and now Syria all embody the tension between U.S. interests and values, and Obama has leaned different ways. With Egypt and Libya, the White House voted its values and supported rebellion and change; with Bahrain and Yemen, the administration, while sympathetic to reform, has embraced its interests in the stability of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain’s neighbor, and in a Yemen that is an ally against al-Qaeda.

The mix is pragmatic, which seems to suit both Obama and Donilon. Yet it sometimes frustrates ideologues on both sides who want a more systematic line. My instinct is that the White House is right to be pragmatic, and for that reason should avoid making so many public pronouncements: This is an evolving crisis, and each country presents a different set of issues; a one-size-fits-all policy approach would be a mistake.

The biggest test may come in Syria, where President Bashar al-Assad has launched a ruthless crackdown. Here, U.S. values and interests would seem to coincide in the fall of Assad, who is Iran’s key Arab ally and maintains a repressive, anti-American regime. But there are dangers: Assad’s fall could bring a sectarian bloodbath. So far, Donilon seems to be holding a middle ground to allow maximum U.S. flexibility.

In an interview in his West Wing office last week, Donilon outlined his basic strategic framework. It begins with Obama’s intuitive feel for these issues. Back in January when the Arab revolts began, Obama admonished his NSC advisers, preoccupied with other issues: “You need to get on this!”

Donilon cites four guidelines that have shaped the administration’s response ever since: First, the Arab revolt is a “historic” event, comparable to the fall of the Ottoman Empire or the post-1945 decolonization of the Middle East; second, “no country is immune” from change; third, the revolution has “deep roots” in poor governance, demographics and new communications technology; and fourth, “these are indigenous events” that can’t be dictated by America, Iran or any other outside power.

Donilon also stresses that this process of change is just beginning. “We’re in the early chapters,” he says, warning that the United States should be careful not to take actions now that it might regret down the road, as situations change and new players emerge.

A useful reality check for Donilon was his trip this month to Saudi Arabia, which had been traumatized by Obama’s abandonment of deposed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and America’s initial support for Bahrain’s Shiite protesters. Donilon met with Saudi King Abdullah for more than two hours and gave him a personal letter from Obama. The reassuring message, he says, was about “the bond we have in a relationship of 70 years that’s rooted in shared strategic interest.”

Donilon is preoccupied now by Syria. He doesn’t want to talk details of policy but says the administration will follow its basic principles of opposing violent repression and supporting reform. He says Assad made a disastrous mistake being “constipated” about change. As for a Libya-style intervention, Donilon seems dubious that a military option in Syria is available or advisable.

Luna Shibel, the Syrian anchor who resigned from Aljazeera talks about the bias and lack of professionalism of Aljazeera in its Syria coverage. Ayman Abdalnour points out that Luna Shibel is an Alawite.

Uprising exposes Syria’s economic weaknesses
By Abigail Fielding-Smith in Beirut and Lina Saigol in London
April 26 2011 22:30 | Financial Times

The protest movement rocking Syria for over a month, and the security forces’ brutal and increasingly militarised response to it, are already exposing vulnerabilities in the Syrian economy.

Decades of central planning under the Ba’ath party’s rule have left Syria with few competitive industries and soaring unemployment. Official estimates put the unemployment rate at about 8 per cent, but analysts say the real figure is much higher.

“(The government’s) plan was foreign investment and tourism, both of which don’t proliferate if you have a civil war,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at Oklahoma University. “Eventually things will fall apart.”

Bashar al-Assad, the president, launched Syria’s economic liberalisation in 2006 with the aim of shifting the country’s centralised economy towards a greater degree of market freedom. Some economic reforms, including the creation of a stock exchange and opening the banking sector to private banks, have been introduced.

But a rising budget deficit, water shortages, declining oil production and rising unemployment have all hampered economic growth. In eastern Syria, for example, five years of low rainfall helped plunge 800,000 people into extreme poverty, according to a 2010 United Nations report.

Mr Assad has blamed the country’s economic malaise on world food inflation, as well as the influx of Iraqi refugees in recent years, all of which have added to the strain of the economy.

But critics of the regime say economic liberalisation has benefited a group of elite businessmen, such as Rami Makhlouf, Mr Assad’s maternal first cousin who controls a significant amount of the economy, including SyriaTel, the country’s mobile network operator.

Nor has the country’s state-controlled economy been conducive to foreign investment, which has been deterred by bureaucratic red tape, inefficiency and political interference. The government has retained control of strategic industries, such as oil production and refining, telecommunications, air transport, and power generation, as well as the price of key agricultural goods.

Syria is ranked 144 out of 183 in the latest World Bank’s latest Ease of Business report, while the CIA World Factbook calculates that it requires 26 procedures to build a warehouse in the country.

In recent years, however, as Syria’s diplomatic relations with the west and regional powers such as Saudi Arabia improved, there were some grounds for hope that Mr Assad might achieve the 5 per cent growth target required to generate desperately needed new jobs each year by boosting foreign direct investment and bringing in 12m tourists annually. Tourism increased by 40 per cent last year, contributing an estimated 15 per cent of GDP and generating more than $7bn of revenues.

Now the hotels of Damascus and Aleppo stand almost empty, as images of protests and violent attacks by security forces are shown on television screens around the world. An auction for Syria’s third mobile phone licence, scheduled to take place this month, and seen as a key indicator of foreign companies’ interest in the Syrian market, was postponed indefinitely after three companies pulled out.

Cross-border trade is also said to have been hard-hit by transport delays caused by security-related road closures. “Deliveries have been delayed,” said Avo Tutunjian, a Lebanese businessman who exports electrical goods to Syria. Mr Tutunjian said he was slowing down new investments with Syrian partners, explaining, “We’re in a ‘wait and see’ phase”.

There are also widespread concerns that the populist economic measures introduced by Mr Assad earlier this year, such as salary increases for public workers, will raise the budget deficit to unmanageable levels, and the Syrian pound is said to have slipped slightly against the dollar on the black market since protests began, although stopping a greater increase is thought to have come at a high cost to the central bank.

With publicly available data scarce, it is hard to assess the exact scale of the economic impact of the uprising, but Syria’s ability to absorb it is not infinite, say analysts. “It depends on how long it lasts,” said Samir Saifan, an independent economic consultant. “If it is just a few weeks, it’s manageable. If it lasts for more time, we don’t know.”

The Real Struggle for the Regime Comes After the Crack Down
CNN – “Global Public Square”
Editor’s Note: The following is an edited portion of an interview by Amar C. Bakshi with Joshua Landis, author of the blog Syria Comment and the director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Assad moves from promising reform to unleashing violence

In his speech to parliament on April 16, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad drew a line in the sand. He said ‘I’ve given you all these concessions’ and he enumerated them – a new government, lifting emergency rules and the end of the security courts – ‘so there should now be no more demonstrations.’ But the movement didn’t stop. In fact, it transcended the demand for reform and became a call for regime change.

So Assad redefined the protestors. He and the Baath Party began to call the protests a ‘rebellion’ and the protestors ‘terrorists’.

In the subsequent days, Bashar al-Assad sought to ‘shock and awe’ the protestors through violence. He took a page right out of any standard military handbook, which is that if you go fast and strong you have better luck at stopping protests before bloodshed gets out of hand.

But Assad cannot win over the long-term

But even if Bashar al-Assad wins in the short-term and the opposition can’t mount the sort of operation necessary to overturn him and take on the military, the opposition is not going to give up. It’s going to continue to demonstrate. And we’re probably going to see the arming of the opposition groups.

All of this is going to undermine the economic footing of the regime. Syria’s economy is already extraordinarily weak. We’re seeing massive unemployment. 32% of Syrians live on $2.00 a day or less. The young people are the ones who are turning out in big numbers for these demonstrations.

The country is midway on its move away from socialism toward an open market system. Syria has instituted a stock market, a bond market, a private banking system and insurance companies – the whole gamut of free-market reforms.

These were supposed to stimulate the economy and place Syria on a new footing that would create jobs and begin to mop up some of its large unemployment problem created by the youth bulge and by an economy that’s been anemic for decades.

Attracting foreign investment and growing tourism and transit trade were key to that economic growth plan. But none of those things are going to materialize now. That means that the regime is going to be able to provide less and less of the things that it needs to provide to stay in power. There is going to be a grinding disintegration of the state’s ability to provide services for its people.

The middle class will abandon Assad as the economy weakens

Currently, the broad middle class in Syria is still sticking with the regime. But the broad middle class, particularly the urban middle class in places like Damascus, has stayed home. They have not come out and joined the movement. There has been no Tahrir Square moment in this uprising. That’s because the middle class fears a civil war and because some of them have vested interests in the state.

Over time, that middle class will begin to abandon the government once it begins failing economically. If there’s no foreign investment and there’s no tourism and nobody’s bills are being paid, the whole economy will begin to freeze up.

That’s what all my businessmen friends are saying: they’re not getting any checks in the door because everybody is holding their cash and because they don’t know what’s going to happen. You can’t run a country like that.

American sanctions will hurt Assad

The U.S. is going to be driven by ideology on this – to support the Arab Spring and freedom and democracy. That means placing sanctions, withdrawing embassy staff and trying to isolate Syria and undermine the regime diplomatically.

But this doesn’t mean democracy in Syria. It means a collapse of the state and probably a civil war.

America is not going to be willing to send in any military. So this puts America in a rather bad position of kicking out the supports of the present state without being willing to build up any alternative.

A sectarian civil war could start

Over time the opposition groups will begin to go to arms. There are arms in Syria. There are also arms in Iraq and Lebanon, along with smuggling rings that have been operating in Syria for decades.

We saw how porous the Iraqi border with Syria was during America’s invasion of Iraq. Al Qaeda and others were streaming across that border. Arms will go the other direction, undoubtedly, as well. All this will fuel a civil war that will be largely sect against sect – majority Sunnis against ruling minority Alawites.

Drawing on the diffused opposition

The great strength of the opposition today is it has no leadership, which means that the regime cannot arrest its leaders and stop it. The real leadership of the opposition are lots of young activists who are in their 20s and early 30s who are working the computers and also organizing on the ground, getting out these demonstrations. But there is no unified leadership that has common goals.

So far they’ve been able to stick with the notion of democracy and freedom as the major demands, which everybody can subscribe to whether they’re from the Muslim Brotherhood or they’re secular, Europeanized university graduates.

But if the state cracks down, as it’s doing now, it’s going to make it very hard to carry out demonstrations and the opposition is going to have to figure out what their next move is. Some will choose to go for a military option because that’s what they’re being met with.

The government is now trying to arrest leadership and it will go after networks and so forth but it will be hard because a lot of new networks have been established. This young generation has become organized.

The Syrian intelligence knows very little about this young generation. It never had to contend with the young generation, which was completely depoliticized a month ago.

Syrian intelligence dealt with the older generations – the old Communists and others – who they kept on throwing in the clink and then letting out every few years. They played rope-a-dope with those guys. They knew where they lived and they were listening to their phones and they you knew they could roll them up easily.

This is a whole new world. The opposition just blew up. Facebook, Twitter and the video effect have been monstrous. It’s mobilized this generation. In three months that this Arab Spring has been going on, the Syrian younger generation has turned from being a rather apathetic crowd that were materialistic, uninterested in politics and atomized, to being deeply mobilized and galvanized around this movement.

Great consequences for the region

Syria is the cockpit of the Middle East. It has borders with most of America’s major allies in the region: Israel, Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, and it might as well have one with Saudi Arabia because the Jordanian border is small in between those two. And it will be Saudis that undoubtedly fund much of the opposition as they did in Iraq.

Saudi Arabia will be sucked into this and it’ll be very torn because the monarchy does not want revolution in Syria by any means. It wants stability. But there will be many Saudis who see this as an opportunity to get rid of the Shiite regime that’s pro-Iranian and anti-Sunni. They see the current regime as deeply heterodox and non-Muslim. So all the Wahabi instincts will be to bring down this regime. The monarchical instincts will be to support it.

There aren’t good outcomes for Assad because even if Assad manages to terrify the opposition to stop in the short-term, over the long-term it’s going to kill the economy, which was key to Assad’s plans because his mantra was that he was going to be like China and follow China’s model. He was going to keep one-party rule and he was going to liberalize the economy. But he was too little, too late. He didn’t create jobs. He didn’t get growth up beyond five-percent. That’s what he needed to do.

Ehsani:

The performance of the stock market is a complicated story. Many of the stocks do not trade given the maximum allowable 3% daily move. One has to be careful when looking at the “index”. Individual stock performances tell a better one. Since the end of January, the overall index is down 28%. If you look at the stock of Qatar National Bank for example (QNBS) which traded today, it is down close to 38% since the end of January.

The Syria Lobby Why Washington keeps giving a pass to the Assad regime.
Wall Street Journal Opinion

How does a small, energy-poor and serially misbehaving Middle Eastern regime always seem to get a Beltway pass? Conspiracy nuts and other tenured faculty would have us believe that country is Israel, though the Jewish state shares America’s enemies and our democratic values. But the question really applies to Syria, where the Assad regime is now showing its true nature.

Washington’s Syria Lobby is a bipartisan mindset. “The road to Damascus is a road to peace,” said Nancy Pelosi on a 2007 visit to Syria as House Speaker. Former Secretary of State James Baker is a longtime advocate of engagement …

When Dictators Fall, Who Rises?
Townhall.com ^ | April 26, 2011 | Pat Buchanan
Posted on Tuesday, April 26, 2011

One month before the invasion of Iraq, Riah Abu el-Assal, a Palestinian and the Anglican bishop of Jerusalem at the time, warned Tony Blair, “You will be responsible for emptying Iraq, the homeland of Abraham, of Christians.”

The bishop proved a prophet. “After almost 2,000 years,” writes the Financial Times, “Iraqi Christians now openly contemplate extinction. Some of their prelates even counsel flight.”

The secular despot Saddam Hussein protected the Christians. But the U.S. liberation brought on their greatest calamity since the time of Christ. Scores of thousands of those Iraqi Christians fleeing terrorism and persecution after 2003 made their way to Syria, where they received sanctuary from President Bashar Assad.

Now, as the FT and Washington Post report, the Christians of Syria, whose forebears have lived there since the time of Christ, are facing a pogrom should the Damascus regime fall.

Christians are 10 percent of Syria’s population, successful and closely allied to the minority Alawite regime of the Assad family. Said one Beirut observer, “Their fear is that if the regime falls to the Sunni majority, they will be put up against the same wall as the Alawites.”

For decades, notes the Post, the Assad regime “has protected Christian interests by enforcing its strictly secular program and by curbing the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood.”

Syria Tries to Defend Its Record to United Nations
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR n NYTimes

UNITED NATIONS — Syria, facing mounting global pressure over its decisions to move tanks into cities against its own citizens and to shoot unarmed demonstrators, tried to defend its record against blunt denunciations from the United States and others on Tuesday at the United Nations, where the Security Council is struggling to forge a collective response.

Ambassador Bashar Jaafari, the Syrian envoy, repeated the government’s claim that the unrest at home was the work of as yet unidentified foreign agitators trying to undermine Syria’s stability and that armed infiltrators were responsible for the shooting of protesters.

“This unrest and riots in some of their aspects have hidden agendas,” Mr. Jaafari told reporters. “Some armed groups take advantage of the demonstrations; they get within the demonstrators and start shooting on the military men and the security forces. This is why there are many casualties.”

Mr. Jaafari also defended President Bashar Assad’s record, saying that more political reforms were coming on the heels of Mr. Assad’s decision to lift the emergency law.

“President Assad is a reformer himself, and he should be given the chance to fulfill his mission in reforming the political life in the country,” he said.

Government opponents openly mock both assertions. Syrians, not foreign agitators, are demanding basic freedoms that have been denied them for the 40 years in which the Assad family has run the country, they say. Although Mr. Assad, 45, promised reform when he inherited the presidency from his father 11 years ago, he has put none in place — instead, they say, the government has strangled any nascent reform movement by jailing its leaders for years.

But efforts by the Security Council to issue the mildest of statements criticizing Syria was postponed until at least Wednesday afternoon. Several member states — Russia, China and Lebanon — seemed firmly opposed, diplomats said, although the ambassadors of China and Lebanon would only note that further discussion was scheduled.

Al-Diyar has a story about al-Qaida’s plans for Syria based on Jamestown reports and those of Musaab al-Suri and other al-Qaida leaders. [in Arabic]

The English-language version of the official news website of the Syrian government is currently reporting that on Tuesday 26 April, fifteen members of the government’s security forces were buried. It names the 15 names, and each’s date of birth, place of birth, and marriage status at the time of death; and it says each was “killed by armed criminal groups” and each body was “escorted in solemn procession”…..

The Arab League backs the protestors against al-Assad
2011-04-26

William Hague has chimed in on the situation in Syria, unsurprisingly condemning the horror and bloodshed being perpetrated by al-Assad’s regime. But considerably more significant is the statement that has today been released by the Arab League. Although the text doesn’t mention al-Assad by name, it clearly has the Syrian autocrat in mind when it calls on “Arab regimes and governments to commit to and speed up reforms, [and to] immediately stop using force against demonstrators and spare their citizens bloodshed.” And it goes further, too, in defending the political — and moral — legitimacy of the protests, saying that the unrest blazing across the Middle East heralds “a new Arab era … led by youths seeking a better present and a brighter future.”

The Syrian governemnt has invited a UN mission to Syria to evaluate the real situation independently. Human right commission is ‘impatient’ to see what is going on. Le Monde 26 april

New poll finds that Egyptians are full of hope about their future, and free and fair elections this fall.

US Urges Americans to Leave Syria Amid Violence, Draws Down Diplomatic Presence

The Syrian government has surrounded the region around Deraa and has brought in tanks, ordering a major crack down. LA Times reports:

…One report by activists said that more than 25 people were killed “but no one could get close to them because of the brutal shooting.”

Syrian activists in touch with witnesses in the southern city reported that at least five military officers, including two with the rank of captain, and nine soldiers refused to carry out their orders against protesters. While at least seven local officials in Dara have already quit their posts to join ranks with the opposition, activists said the military personnel included troops from the cities of Homs, Lattakia and Tartous.

Several military officers in Dara province told the Los Angeles Times that they had orders to open fire on any protester, adding that many were afraid to resist and that failing to carry out orders was tantamount to a death sentence.

“We have orders to open fire,” said one of the officers, speaking on condition of anonymity due to concerns for his safety. “We are afraid to carry them out because there will be more killing. But if we don’t, someone will kill us.”

Neither the casualties nor the reports of defections could be independently confirmed. The authorities cut off phone service, disconnected electrical power and blocked roads to the farming hub of about 1 million people, and foreign journalists have largely been barred from the country. Jordanian state media reported that Syria had sealed the border near Dara, where the arrest and alleged torture of a group of teenagers accused of writing political graffiti sparked the unrest now gripping the country….

‘No humanity left’ in Syria
By Cal Perry Al-Jazeera,  April 24th, 2011.

…..Gunfire raining into crowd

My grumpy attitude, Abdel [the driver] and I were approaching the city of Izraa when something immediately clearly horrible was unfolding down the road directly in front of us. People, mostly truck drivers, were standing on the highway … yelling at the cars approaching – telling them to pull over.

Screaming and waving widely. I saw one making signs with his hands. He was mimicking the motion of a machine gun firing. I got my bearings, noticing right away two road signs: one pointing to the right that read “Izraa: 1km” and the other pointing to the left that read “Daraa”.

It dawned on me at that moment that I had been here before. We were just outside the “kill zone” I had seen weeks earlier on the outskirts of Daraa.

About 50 metres from where we pulled over was an overpass that connected Daraa to Izraa. I could see clearly a crowd of people marching from my left to my right over the bridge.

Suddenly gunfire rained into the crowd. The truck drivers dove for cover. And, for what seemed like an eternity, I sat there in the car, stunned and frozen. People were falling on top of each other, being cut down like weeds in a field by what I think must have been a mix of both small arms fire and machine gun fire. I saw at least two children shot. They fell immediately. People were screaming. Gunfire rattled on.

Two cars tried to gun it under the overpass and continue down the highway, even with the gunfire continuing to cut people up. One of the cars got hit immediately before it passed under the bridge and ended up slamming into the embankment on the right side of the road. Someone fell out of the passenger side and scrambled under the bridge and crawled into a ball … just hoping for survival, I suppose.

I’ve been playing it through over and over again in my head for the past 16 hours and I still do not know where the gunfire was coming from. It seemed to be coming from a field that lay off to my right – on the Izraa side of the bridge. I could see some muzzle flashes, but I’ve never in my life seen people walking, and just shot at indiscriminately.

I could not take my eyes off what was quickly becoming carnage. One of the last things I remember seeing clearly were people lying flat on the road, taking cover behind those who had already been wounded or shot dead … lying in what must have been pools of blood to avoid a hail of flying hot hell.

Abdel’s brain finally switched back on and he flung the car into reverse and headed backwards down the highway, laying on his car horn the entire time, weaving backwards through the cars that were now slowly approaching the spot where truck drivers were taking cover in the ditch. I was gripping the handle of the door so hard, I noticed my knuckles had gone totally white.

Mini-massacre

Abdel spun the car around, drove over the median and started driving back to Damascus. There was really nothing to say at that point. But out of immediate instinct, I rang our news desk in Doha. I can’t remember what I said initially, but clearly it was enough for the editors to get an anchor up immediately to tape an interview over the phone, getting my fresh reaction to what I had seen.

I didn’t know what to say honestly except it was clear security forces [or Assad loyalists, who are now, based on behaviour, part of the security forces] had just carried out a mini-massacre. I’m sure I repeated myself too many times, something you try not to do … but this was unlike anything I had ever seen. After covering seven separate wars in as many years, I’ve never seen people march directly into a hail of gunfire.

As the interview was rapping up, we came across a heavy army checkpoint. We had driven through maybe a dozen on our way down, and the further we headed south, the more frequent they became. It was as if around 25km north of the Jordan border there was an invisible military zone that had been put up.

I didn’t notice the ones on the other side of the highway, but as soon as we started approaching one (now driving back north), Abdel and I looked at each other. Immediately I apologised to Tony Harris [our anchor] and shoved the phone into my pocket, bringing a quick end to the interview.

Being seen talking on the phone as a journalist, right after fleeing that scene, we would have ended up in detention, there is not a doubt in my mind.

As we passed through the army checkpoint, the soldiers were smoking and laughing; looking at each other; smiling, waving us through various barriers. I can only describe it like what it felt to me: an evil grimace of enjoyment was on their faces. We were maybe, at the most, 3km from where I had just seen people cut down, bullets tearing their bodies into pieces. It was disgusting.

I turned to look at Abdel, to begin asking him a series of questions about the best way to proceed from that point on – and I saw a man of maybe 40 years old with a single tear running down his cheek. “Are you ok, habbibi,” I asked like an idiot.

“Yes … yes – but shou (what) … shou,” he repeated … what do we have? There is no humanity here anymore.”

‘No humanity left’

After a few minutes of silence and many cigarettes passed back and forth we debated the best way for me to get out of the country. We debated it all the way back to Damascus.

In the end, Abdel and I agreed: make a run for the Lebanese border now, spending another night in Damascus; overstaying my visa to face the “full force of the law” after reporting what we had both just seen was not a smart idea.

So, off to the Lebanese capital Beirut we went.

Ironic that a place where I’ve seen a war and many clashes break out before was suddenly a seven-hour refugee for me as I waited for the first flight to any European city so I could then connect home to see my elderly and sick grandfather on Easter.

As I sit at this airport in Paris, writing this piece, watching people come and go, I am haunted by two thoughts: The first is a question I cannot answer. How can you shoot people like that? Just watch a crowd march towards you; sit in a firing position, wait … watch; then fire directly into a crowd of civilians.

I did not see a single shot fired from the crowd in the few minutes we sat there watching people flail without any place to hide – a gut wrenching pink mist spraying strait in the air.

It is that thought, and the words of a young man from the southern city of Daraa speaking about the country he once loved, a country that has forever changed asking me rhetorically: “What do we have? There is no humanity here anymore.”

Administrator of the “Syrian Revolution 2011 Facebook Page” Speaks Out. The official spokesman of the cite lives in Sweden and leads Sweden’s chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood according to the Syrian press. His name is ???? ????? ???? ????? ????  Fida’ ad-Din Tariif as-Sayyid `Isa, born 1985. Syria Revolution 2011 is the most important webpage of the Syria revolution. It has over 130,000 members. It is the major source of news and Youtube videos about the Syrian revolution.

An account of how the video was captured and what happened to the Syria Revolution 2011 webpage on Saturday 2011, sent to me by a friend.

On Saturday afternoon, the https://www.facebook.com/Syrian.Revolution suffered a sudden technical glitch. The main content page lost most of its content and its membership read only a few hundred rather than the nearly 138,000 members it had had.  Shortly after chrashing, a video appeared on the site.  In this video, a man – the administrator of the site – is seen angrily lashing out against those he believed had hacked the original Facebook page and taken it down.

Approximately 15 minutes later, a new message was loaded on the page. This message explained how it was an error by Facebook that brought the page down.  Shortly after the original page was restored along with the nearly 138,000 members who have joined.  The video accusing the Syrian authorities of having hacked the site was immediately taken down by the owner.  It has been sent to Syria Comment, which will presumably publish it.  The owner of the site “Syria Revolution 2011” is clearly the same man that was mentioned by Champress a few weeks ago. In that article, it was revealed that the gentleman is based in Sweden and that he belongs to the Moslem Brotherhood.

???? ????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ??????  ??? 1985 ????? ?? ????? “??????? ????????” ????? ??????? ?? ?????? ? ??? ??? ????? ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ???? ???????? ?? ???? ???? ?????? ??????? ?? ?????

Here is another email about Fida’

All I know is that on March 22nd, Champress got it right when they said that he is the admin of the revolution page. Someone managed to get into his Facebook page and got all the photos in that article. Plus according to Champress:

????? ?? ????? ?????? ??? ??? (??? ???) ?????? “??????? ????????” ? ??? ????? ?? ?????? “???????” ?? ??? ???????? ?????? ??? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ??????.

???? ???? ??? ?????????? ??? ??????? ???????? ??? ????? ?? ????? ? ????? ??? ????? ???? ???? ???? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ? ???? ??? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??? ?? ?? ?? ????? ??? ???? ????? ??????? ??? ????? ???? ???? ???????? ??? ????? ???????.

???? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ???????? ???? ???? ?? ???? ?? ???? “????” ???????? ???????? ?? ????? 5 ???? ?????? ? ????? ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ????? “???????” ???????? ????????? ??????? ??? “??????? ????????” ??? ?? ?????? ??????? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ?? “???????” ?? ?????? ?? ???? ????? ????? ??????? ??????? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? ????? ??? ???????.

Also, on his Facebook profile he had photos of meetings he held with Egyptian brotherhood leaders, he had the logo of the brotherhood, but when he appeared on the BBC and exposed his identity, he removed all previous photos from his profile on FB.

Also, he spoke to Barada TV on Feb 5th and called upon the Syrian people to demonstrate in the streets using “???????” (which is normally used to imply the Muslim Brotherhood.

I don’t know much more, but I have the administrator’s original (first few weeks’) posts and they were big time ikhwan.

See the attached sample where one Egyptian comment says “Dear administrator: I wish you can reduce the heavy use of religious language, we want to attract the whole spectrum of people”

Also, you can check this Egyptian imam’s video (Fadel Suleiman) that the admin posted proudly

It says “to Syrian Alawites … join us or your children will pay a heavy price from now until eternity”

Other videos of Syrian activists within the country

Activist Encouraging Aleppo to Rise Up

Student of Aleppo University Calling for Revolution

Activists Elsewhere

Exiles Shaping World’s Image of Syria Revolt
Rami Nakhle, a Syrian dissident hiding in Beirut, coordinated coverage of protests in Syria on Friday from his apartment.
By ANTHONY SHADID
Published: April 23, 2011

….Mr. Monajed [A London based activist] estimates that 18 to 20 people are engaged in helping coordinate and cover the protests full time, though he boasts that he can find someone in his broader community to translate English to French at 4 a.m. He has a contact in every Syrian province, who in turn have their networks of 10 people. “And the regime can’t do anything about it,” he said. [Here is Monajed’s website: Syrian Revolution News Round-up]

Ausama Monajed

Several say they relied on Syrian businessmen — abroad or in Syria — to finance one of their most impressive feats. After witnessing the Egyptian  government’s success in shutting down the Internet and mobile phone networks in January, they made a concerted attempt to circumvent a similar move by delivering satellite phones and modems across Syria.

Ammar Abdulhamid, an activist in Maryland, estimated that they delivered 100 satellite phones, along with hundreds of cameras and laptops…. Ammar’s site: Syrian Revolution Digest

Mr. Nakhle said he had urged people to use slogans that are free of the sectarian or religious bent popular with Islamic activists. “We have to worry about these people,” he admitted.

The unprecedented power of the long-distance activists to shape the message troubled Camille Otrakji, a Damascus-born political blogger who lives in Montreal. Where others see coordination, he sees manipulation, arguing that the activists’ mastery of image belies a revolt more sectarian than national, and deaf to the fears of minorities. “I call it deception,” said Mr. Otrakji, a somewhat lonely voice in the Internet tumult. “It’s like putting something on the wrapping of a product which has nothing to do with what’s inside. This is all being manipulated.”

Over 80 dead are reported in the government crackdown on Friday April 22. The government is struggling to contain the demonstrations. Some think that they would not grow indefinitely were the government to permit them to go ahead. Who knows? Clearly the government is not prepared to find out. Many Syrians fear chaos and are staying inside. It is hard to figure out how many are coming out to demonstrate; the numbers continue to grow. The Maydan district at the heart of traditional Damascus was the site of several killings. [Correction the day after – Reuters: “In Damascus, security forces fired teargas to disperse 2,000 protesters in the district of Maydan.” No deaths are reported today in the Maydan and only small numbers of demonstrators. This can be read as “good news”  for the regime because the demos were very small, or “bad news” because demos began in the heart of traditional Sunni Damascus.]

The Maydan has long been the center of revolutionary activity in Damascus. Salah Bitar, a founder of the Baath Party, was from the Maydan. It is the traditional home of the grain merchants who provisioned the city with crops from Deraa and the bread basket of Southeastern Syria. Attitudes of Sunni Damascus  could well be shaped by the way the Maydan responds. One readers sent this note:

My grandparents and their families were all Meedani. My grandmother used to tell me that I have the hands (peasant hands apparently) of the Meedan. Regardless – this is definitely the heart of Damascus… and does not bode well…. My two uncles are visiting here in Boston. They are both well off Sunni business people – one with large business interests in Damas (says everything is tanking right now – and nobody can pay him their debts) and both with property interests…. both are sitting here defending the status quo and repeating some of the gov’t line … can’t afford chaos and vulnerable country without its president.

While at the same time – their sons/nephews are busy posting revolutionary rhetoric on their internet pages… and cussing out the regime to each other (off line).

Syria’s streets seem to be filled with the endlessly numerous youth of the country, who are angry, underemployed and ready for change. As the death toll rises, the likelihood of either side backing down grows smaller and the likelihood of prolonged struggle grows larger.

Demonstrators stormed the mayor’s office near Daraa in what could become a precedent for opposition action in the future. It is not clear what the opposition’s strategy is other than to continue increasing the number of demonstrators. So far, there has been no systematic resort to arms by the opposition in the face of the crackdown or effort to take over government buildings. In Banyas, there seemed to be armed elements that exploited the chaos brought on by demonstrations. But in most cities, this has not been the case. The opposition has been able to retain its discipline behind the call for peaceful protest.

Two Syrian MPs from the protest hub city of Daraa on Saturday told Al-Jazeera television they were quitting parliament in protest at the bloodshed in their country.

Ghassan Ben Jedou, a main TV personality at al-Jazeera has resigned, claiming that the station has become a center of incitement for the revolutions rather than a news agency. [Comment above by JL]

A Question from a reader:

As a foreigner in Syria, I am following the events “on the ground” with great concern. Speaking to members of the diplomatic circuit, it seems to be the perception that until the unrest reaches Aleppo and/or Damascus, the situation is “bearable”, from the embassies’ point of view. In light of that thinking, yesterday’s events, as I see it, were not decisive and we may have to wait yet again for Friday to come to see “what will happen next”. However, in all this there is one thing that puzzles me, which brings me to my question to you: Aleppo seems to be remarkable quiet in all this. There has been some activities on the university campus, but given that we’re talking about Syria’s largest city, it may be considered insignificant. In your opinion, what can be the possible explanation for this?

I am adding two comments by readers because they reflect two different interpretations of the “Great Friday” events:

Souri said:

I am now in Syria. What Joshua Landis writes in no way represents the truth. He has just decided to adopt the opposition’s version of the story for some reason. His last two posts were very skewed and do not reflect the reality on the ground in anyway.

Polarization here is very high. I used to argue that Aleppo and Damascus are mostly Islamist so they must join the uprising at one point, however, this is not the reality on the ground. Most people here are obviously pro-regime, and they are getting very hostile to the demonstrators. I am hearing a lot of people who say the government has been dealing so softly with them. Many people would like the government to act even more harshly against the demonstrators. There is little sympathy with the killed. People are very worried about their future living. It was surprising to me that the poorest people were the most hostile to the demonstrators. One taxi driver told me that he earns his living by day and if he stops working for one day, he will have nothing to feed his family on that day.

When few people tried to demonstrate in Bab al-Hadid in Aleppo on Thursday, they were surrounded by ordinary residents of the neighborhood and they were not allowed to move. The demonstration was so small (definitely less than a hundred). Yesterday, the ‘Great Friday’ demonstration was surrounded by a larger crowed of ordinary citizens who were chanting for Bashar. You could even hear it in the clip that appeared on Youtube.

The same happened in Damascus. The Maydan demo was small, and it lasted for minutes. There were no killings at all, this is just BS like the other BS Joshua Landis has been publishing lately (like for example his claim that the mufti has joined the revolution). Much of Joshua’s information is false, and maybe this is what is making his evaluations unrealistic. I don’t know if he’s doing it on purpose or if he has just screwed up in picking his sources. Be careful with picking your sources Mr. Landis. People like Ammar Abdulhamid are not good sources.

The regime decided yesterday to shoot at people because it knew people were ready to accept that. Actually, the majority of Syrians are expecting more use of force from the government and they don’t mind it. We may be heading to some major clash similar to that of the 1980’s, but the regime has most of the people on its side. The media weapon has not been very effective, and foreign intervention does not seem a realistic threat. I believe the regime is willing to take the challenge. Bashar Assad said that he does not fear anything as long as he has the people on his side. He indeed has a majority of the people on his side.

The Islamist insurgents have no chance of controlling a single village in Syria, not to say a city. In Libya, Qaddafi lost control over the eastern half of his country. In Egypt, Mubarak’s police stations were stormed by demonstrators and the demonstrations went unchecked. This cannot happen in Syria for many reasons, the most important reason being that the demonstrators do not have enough manpower to do it.

I don’t know why people were shot yesterday, but it sounds from what they said that they were trying to storm government and security buildings. They totally failed. The regime has huge militias composed of students, workers, and farmers in addition to the formidable security forces. These militias can easily defeat those Islamist protesters. The protesters cannot control a single village in Syria, they are too few and too weak. Like a caller said on Al-Jazeera yesterday, the demonstrators without the media are nothing.

The uprising in Syria is not meant to overthrow the regime because the people behind it know that it cannot. It is only meant to destabilize Syria and force political concessions on it. Just listen to the American statements.

Zenobia, who reacts to another comment:

Spare everyone who just watched those videos above your complete garbage!…

If African Americans had waited for the state or federal government to come to the rescue and win them their civil rights…. there would still be lynchings in Georgia today! They had to go out and risk their lives to seize their rights….so please don’t make ludicrous comparisons. If you think corruption in Norway or even in the United States is on par with Syria, you are in a complete fantasy. Probably most Syrians were willing to wait and be patient, but when the bullets start flying – there is no patience left – there is nothing to lose.

When you watch these videos and the many, many others….have you seen any of these people lying on the ground with a weapon next to them????? NO, none. Was that child with his head blown off….carrying a gun?? NO. he wasn’t. Where are these supposed terrorists? There are now – a zillion videos up on the internet… and nobody has been able to produce any ANYYYYY footage of these foreigner ‘insurgents’… the whole security services can’t name any one of the supposed persons who attacked them or supposedly attacked civilians? Where are they hiding at night! This is insane. These are Syrians laying on the ground…

This president may be opening his mouth and appearing to be “cooperating”…but there is a massive killing machine unleashed at the same time – that he must answer for. And there is not one excuse – any one can use to justify the bloodshed. No vandalism is an excuse, no made up story about people assaulting a church!… You must not have ever traveled to Switzerland…. because this is not what is going on there – politically and in terms of violence. It is not the slow pace of change that is going to bring this gov’t down, if it comes down. What will bring it down is this bloodshed. If you want to compare yourself to the Congo or Ivory Coast favorably, go ahead, but that is pretty pathetic.

Anthony Shadid in NYTimes

Organizers said the movement was still in its infancy, and the government, building on 40 years of institutional inertia, still commanded the loyalty of the military, economic elite and sizable minorities of Christian and heterodox Muslim sects who fear the state’s collapse.

Coming a day after Mr. Assad endorsed the lifting of draconian emergency rule, the killings represented another chapter in the government’s strategy of alternating promises of concessions with a grim crackdown that has left it staggering but still entrenched.

“There are indications the regime is scared, and this is adding to the momentum, but this is still the beginning,” said Wissam Tarif, the executive director of Insan, a Syrian human rights group. “Definitely, we haven’t seen the millions we saw in Egypt or Tunisia. The numbers are still humble, and it’s a reality we have to acknowledge.”

Syria unrest: ‘Bloodiest day’ as troops fire on rallies
22 April 2011, BBC

At least 72 protesters have been killed by security forces in Syria, rights groups say – the highest reported death toll in five weeks of unrest there. Demonstrators were shot, witnesses say, as thousands rallied across the country, a day after a decades-long state of emergency was lifted. Many deaths reportedly occurred in a village near Deraa in the south, and in a suburb of the capital, Damascus.

The US White House urged the government to stop attacking demonstrators. Spokesman Jay Carney said it should “cease and desist in the use of violence against protesters” and follow through on promised reforms.

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said he was “extremely concerned” by reports of deaths and casualties across Syria and urged restraint on the country’s authorities. “Political reforms should be brought forward and implemented without delay,” he said. “The Emergency Law should be lifted in practice, not just in word.”..

April 22 (Bloomberg) — U.S. President Barack Obama condemned “the outrageous use of violence” in Syria against protesters today.

One reader writes: worst picture yet just showed up on facebook.com/syrian.revolution. I did not want to put it not to upset u guys.

Another reader writes: You have to watch Syrian tv. It’s been showing even more graphic images for the police and others killed by the demonstrators. It’s extremely graphic and unbelievable.

Another reader: the demonstrations have reached the centers of non-Sunni communities such as Suweidaa [Druze] and Salamiyeh [Ismaili].

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9O4XHyxR-_Q
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9QAvr3jP_w

From Suweida:

Dear Joshua, I hope you are doing well. I was reading you page this morning and saw that somebody posted two links pretending that they were from Sweida and Salamieh. I just want to clarify that no protests took place in Sweida yesterday. I am from Sweida and I was in contact with my family there all the day yesterday. Everything is calm there. For those who know Sweida they can discover from watching the videos thatneither the buildings nor the people’s clothing are traditional from Mouhafazat Al-Sweida. It seems that some people want to exaggerate the events, and provocate others. I hope you can add my remark to your page after the links.

Robert Kaplan has always been sensationalist when it comes to Syria’s propensity for dissolution. Syria has come a long way since WWI, but not far enough for what it is about to pass through. (JL)

Syriana: After Bashar al-Assad, the deluge.
BY ROBERT D. KAPLAN | APRIL 21, 2011, Foreign Policy

The late Princeton scholar Philip K. Hitti called Greater Syria — the historical antecedent of the modern republic — “the largest small country on the map, microscopic in size but cosmic in influence,” encompassing in its geography, at the confluence of Europe, Asia, and Africa, “the history of the civilized world in a miniature form.” This is not an exaggeration, and because it is not, the current unrest in Syria is far more important than unrest we have seen anywhere in the Middle East.

“Syria” was the 19th-century Ottoman-era term for a region that stretched from the Taurus Mountains of Turkey in the north to the Arabian Desert in the south, and from the Mediterranean Sea in the west to Mesopotamia in the east. Present-day Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, western Iraq, and southern Turkey were all included in this vast area. In other words, the concept of “Syria” was not linked to any specific national sentiment. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I led to Greater Syria being carved into a half-dozen states. Although territory had been cut away on all sides, the rump French mandate of “Syria” that came into existence, nevertheless, contained not only every warring sect and regional and tribal interest, but also the spiritual headquarters in the capital Damascus of the pan-Arab movement, whose aim was to erase all the state borders that the Europeans had just created.

Pan-Arabism — of which the post-World War II independent state of Syria claimed to constitute the “throbbing-heart” — became a substitute for Syria’s very weak national identity. Indeed, Syria’s self-styled “steadfast” hatred of Israel was a way for Syrians to escape their own internal contradictions. Those contradictions were born of the parochial interests of regionally based ethnic and sectarian groups: Sunni Arabs in the Damascus-Homs-Hama central corridor; heretical, Shiite-trending Alawites in the mountains of the northwest; Druze in the south, with their close tribal links to Jordan; and Kurds, Christian Arabs, Armenians, and Circassians in Aleppo.

Between 1947 and 1954, Syria held three national elections that all broke down more or less according to these regional and sectarian lines. After 21 changes of government in 24 years and a failed attempt to unify with Egypt, the Alawite air force officer Hafez al-Assad took power in a 1970 coup. By ruling with utter ruthlessness, he kept the peace in Syria for three decades. To wit, when the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood rose up in Hama in 1982, he killed more than 20,000 Sunni Muslim civilians there in response, according to some estimates. Assad’s son, Bashar, who succeeded his father as Syria’s president a decade ago, has yet to make his bones in such a way. It is unclear whether the son is visionary enough to satisfy today’s protesters, or cruel enough like his father to stay in power. His regime’s survival may require stores of both attributes. A complicating factor is that to a much greater degree than his father, the son is trapped within a web of interest groups that include a corrupt business establishment and military and intelligence leaders averse to reform. So the political crisis in Syria will likely continue to build.

Syria at this moment in history constitutes a riddle. Is it, indeed, prone to civil conflict as the election results of the 1940s and 1950s indicate; or has the population quietly forged a national identity in the intervening decades, if only because of the common experience of living under an austere dictatorship? No Middle East expert can say for sure.

Were central authority in Syria to substantially weaken or even break down, the regional impact would be greater than in the case of Iraq. Iraq is bordered by the strong states of Turkey and Iran in the north and east, and is separated from Saudi Arabia in the south and Syria and Jordan to the west by immense tracts of desert. Yes, the Iraq war propelled millions of refugees to those two latter countries, but the impact of Syria becoming a Levantine Yugoslavia might be even greater. That is because of the proximity of Syria’s major population zones to Lebanon and Jordan, both of which are unstable already.

Remember that Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel are all geographically and historically part of Greater Syria, a reason that successive regimes in Damascus since 1946 never really accepted their legitimacy. The French drew Lebanon’s borders so as to bring a large population of mainly Sunni Muslims under the domination of Maronite Christians, who were allied with France, spoke French, and had a concordat with the Vatican. Were an Alawite regime in Damascus to crumble, the Syria-Lebanon border could be effectively erased as Sunnis from both sides of the border united and Lebanon’s Shiites and Syria’s Alawites formed pockets of resistance. The post-colonial era in the Middle East would truly be closed, and we would be back to the vague borders of the Ottoman Empire.

What seems fanciful today may seem inevitable in the months and years ahead. Rather than face a “steadfast” and rejectionist, albeit predictable, state as the focal point of Arab resistance, Israel would henceforth face a Sunni Arab statelet from Damascus to Hama — one likely influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood — amid congeries of other fiefdoms. The unrest in Syria brings the Middle East perhaps to a precipice. Peaceful or not, the future of the region will be one of weakened central authority. Mesopotamia at least has a historic structure, with its three north-south oriented ethnic and sectarian entities. But Greater Syria is more of a hodgepodge.

For most of history, prior to the colonial era, Middle Eastern borders mattered far less than they do now, as cities like Aleppo in northern Syria and Mosul in northern Iraq had more contact with each other than with the respective capitals of Damascus and Baghdad. The ruins of Hatra, southwest of Mosul in Iraq, a Silk Road nexus of trade and ideas that reached its peak in the second and third centuries A.D., attest to a past and possible future of more decentralized states that could succeed the tyrannical perversions of the modern nation-state system. Hatra’s remains reflect the eclectic mix of Assyrian, Hellenistic, Parthian, and Roman styles that set the stage for early Islamic architecture. Then there are the ruins of Dura-Europos, a Parthian caravan center founded in 300 B.C., halfway between Syria and Mesopotamia and known as the “Pompeii of the East.” Frescoes from the synagogue at Dura-Europos grace the halls of the National Museum in Damascus. Both these sets of ruins have a vital political significance for the present, for they indicate a region without hardened borders that benefited from the free flow of trade and information.

But the transition away from absolutist rule in the Middle East to a world of commercially oriented, 21st-century caravan states will be longer, costlier, and messier than the post-1989 transitions in the Balkans — a more developed part of the Ottoman Empire than Greater Syria and Mesopotamia. The natural state of Mesopotamia was mirrored in the three Ottoman vilayets of Kurdish Mosul, Sunni Baghdad, and Shiite Basra. The natural state of Greater Syria beyond the constellation of city-states like Phoenicia, Aleppo, Damascus, and Jerusalem is more indistinct still.

European leaders in the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th were engrossed by the so-called Eastern Question: that is, the eruptions of instability and nationalist yearnings in the Balkans and the Middle East caused by the seemingly interminable, rotting-away death of the Ottoman Empire. The Eastern Question was eventually settled by the cataclysm of World War I, from which the modern Arab state system emerged. But a hundred years on, the durability of that post-Ottoman state system should not be taken for granted.

Robert D. Kaplan is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, correspondent for the Atlantic, and author of Eastward to Tartary: Travels in the Balkans, the Middle East, and the Caucasus.

Who Supports the Regime and Why a New Party Law Will Not Include Eliminating the Supremacy of the Baath Party
by Ehsani2
for Syria Comment
April 22, 2011

Nearly 23 million Syrians are mesmerized by the recent events engulfing their country.  The seemingly boring, predictable and stable Syrian political scene has suddenly suffered its black swan moment.  Once the lid was removed, stability suddenly turned into an explosion.

It is not easy to think of something intelligent to say which has not already been covered by others.  This forum has been one of the many venues where people’s frustrations, passions, fears and beliefs have boiled to the surface. I believe that all of us Syrians are richer for it.  The objective of this note is to summarize where we stand today. I think that there are two central issues that face the country:

1-     What is the real level of support that the opposition enjoys?

2-     Will the leadership explicitly and unequivocally delete article 8 from the constitution?

In order to answer the first question, I have constructed a simple table. Let us try to answer the following set of questions with a simple yes or no:

Are you a Christian or Alawi?

Yes    or No

Do you consider yourself or your family (based in Syria) to be well off economically or “connected”?

Yes    or No

Are you a Sunni Muslim?

Yes    or No

If you answered yes to either of the first two questions, chances are that you are a supporter of the current Syrian leadership.  Stability and the fear of the unknown are your major concerns.  You are likely to support the reform process but be opposed to changing the leadership.

If you answered yes to the third and second question, then you are torn. You may support a change in leadership but not if it breaks the country apart and/or lead to a severe economic contraction.

If you answered yes to the third and no to the second question, chances are that you have turned your back on the leadership.  You are mostly likely to be a supporter and a sympathizer of the opposition.

Is this ridiculously simplistic?

The answer most likely is yes.  It is a generalization to be sure.  However, I think that it accurately describes the broader trend relatively well. The fact is that the Syrian society is divided on religious (sectarian) and socio economic (or level of connections) grounds.  You are for the leadership if are a Christian/Alawi/well off/connected. You are against if you are a Syria based Sunni/not wealthy/not connected.

Will The Syrian leadership do away with article 8 of the constitution?

I believe that the answer is no.  The leadership needs the party’s support on many fronts. Most critical, however, is the way the party helps elect a sitting President every 7 years.  Here is how it works:

The country’s presidential candidate is appointed by the parliament (167 seats of 250 are reserved for the leading party) on suggestion of the Baath Party, and needs to be confirmed for a seven year term in a national single-candidate referendum.

Make no mistakes about it. The party and the palace will take no chances with this requirement.  A new party law may well see the light of day soon.  It is highly unlikely, however, that the Baath party’s Presidential candidate will run in an open debate and election against the candidates of any new parties.

The current fight on the streets of Syrian cities is an implicit (or even explicit) attempt to resolve the answer to the above question.

Nassim Tableb in The Black Swan:

I discussed Saudi Arabia as a prime case of the calm before the storm and the Great Moderation [the perceived end of economic volatility due to the creation of 20th century banking laws] in the same breath. I was comparing Italy with Saudi Arabia. Italy is an example of mild randomness in comparison with Saudi Arabia and Syria, which are examples of wild randomness. Italy has had 60 changes in regime in the post-war era, but they are inconsequential…. It is a prime example of noise. It’s very Italian and so it’s elegant noise, but it’s noise nonetheless. In contrast, Saudi Arabia and Syria have had the same regime in place for 40 some years. You may think it is stability, but it’s not. Once you remove the lid, the thing explodes. The same kind of thing happens in finance. Take the portfolio of banks. The environment seemed very placid — the Great Moderation — and then the thing explodes.

A note about Homs from a reader:

Dear Mr. Joshua, Concerning the “Christian” who was killed yesterday in Homs. It is not a Christian. It is a Alawite, named Iyad Khalifé, whose pseudonym -as Alawite used to endorse through pious vows- is Elias. He is a colonel in the army and has been shot by the intruders. No Christian was ever killed those last days in Homs. I have made a total review in all our communities in Homs.

Thanking you in advance

MICHAEL YOUNG at WINEP

As the events of the Arab Spring continue to unfold, three key lessons emerge from Lebanon’s experience, especially as it relates to Syria. First, foreign intervention is often necessary for liberation movements to achieve their goals. Taking the historical long view, even the American and Russian revolutionaries did not succeed without outside assistance. The events in Lebanon in 2005 may have reflected an emancipation rather than a revolution, but foreign intervention played a role all the same, just as it did in removing Saddam Hussein and stopping Muammar Qadhafi at the gates of Benghazi.

In 2004 and 2005, Lebanese opposed to the Syrian occupation drew on international legal and political frameworks to sustain their domestic revolt. They helped spur the creation, for example, of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which called for Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon and the disarmament of nonstate actors such as Hizballah and Palestinian militias. And through Security Council Resolution 1595, they helped establish an independent investigation into the Hariri assassination. Although the U.S. invasion of Iraq had no direct impact on the spread of freedom in Lebanon, the U.S. military presence on Syria’s eastern border reminded Lebanese citizens of their neighbor’s vulnerability.

LA Times [Reg]: Loyal, secretive security forces keep Syria leader in power
2011-04-21

Reporting from Beirut— Unable to stem a growing popular uprising with promises of reform, ceaseless propaganda and restrictions on the news media, Syria’s government still retains one powerful weapon: the solid support of a secretive web of …

The Syrian government has drawn a line in the sand. Now that it has made concessions — canceled the special National Security Court, lifted the emergency law, fired governors of Banyas and Deraa governates, named a new Prime Minister and cabinet and promised a new party law — the president has stated that there is no longer reason to demonstrate. He has called the on-going uprising a rebellion. The Baath Party has stated that there will be no tolerance with “terrorists” in the Arab country.

The organizers of the revolution vowed to turn out their largest numbers yet on what protesters have begun to call “Great Friday.” Many are determined to bring down the regime and understand that this is their chance. Friday will be a day of reckoning. If the opposition can keep up its momentum in the face of what is likely to be a severe crackdown, it may be able to sweep the nation before it and topple the regime by overwhelming the security forces with sheer numbers of protesters and occupying government buildings.

The regime is moving toward defining the protesters as terrorists and mukharabiin vandals. It has drawn a stark picture for the Syrian people of a nation headed toward civil war and destruction, much like Iraq experienced. The Syrian people will have to decide whether they can put up with authoritarianism and trust that regime can modernize or put their faith in the revolution.

Syrians have little faith in the government. But do they have faith in the opposition? The great weakness of the opposition is that it does not have a leadership. It has been led by young activists in their 20s and 30s. They have been brave, disciplined and very successful at rallying the people behind the cry for freedom. To be successful they will have to produce a leadership that can reassure the Syrian people that their future can be bright without going through the horrors of civil war or the collapse of national institutions.

The remarks above are by Joshua Landis

Addendum: Lennart writes in the comment section:

Josh, you write that “The great weakness of the opposition is that it does not have a leadership.” I am surprised to see you write that because it is totally wrong. If the revolution had had a leadership, that leadership would have been arrested a very long time ago and the revolution beheaded. It is precisely because the revolution does NOT have a leadership that is has been able to survive. It was the same in Tunisia and Egypt.

Joshua replies: You are correct Lennart. Having no leadership  is a strength in getting the revolt off the ground and avoiding arrest for the activists, but in the Syrian case, I also believe it will turn out to be a weakness. Because civil war is a possible result of trying to remove this regime, Syrians want to know what comes next. If the opposition is successful, state institutions, such as the army, may dissolve, as they did in Lebanon and Iraq. Syria is not like Egypt or Tunisia, where the army can step into the void and offer authority and direction. Leadership is important. Syrians may not want to take that step into the void unless they have confidence there will be someone to lead them out of it.

New Round Up

Amid Crackdown, Big Protest Is Planned in Syria
By ANTHONY SHADID, April 20, 2011 NYTimes

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Protests erupted Wednesday in the town that unleashed Syria’s five-week uprising, and security forces detained a prominent organizer in the restive city of Homs, casting into doubt government pledges to repeal the harsh emergency laws and grant civil rights in one of the Arab world’s most repressive countries.

Though the demonstrations in Dara’a and elsewhere paled before those of past days, organizers vowed to turn out their largest numbers yet on what protesters have begun to call “Great Friday.” Some residents said security forces were already deploying in the hopes of dampening the turnout, and organizers across Syria called the day potentially decisive for the uprising’s momentum.

….“People don’t trust the regime anymore,” said Haitham Maleh, a former judge and an often imprisoned human rights activist in Damascus, Syria’s capital. “I don’t think that the Syrian people are going to stop before they bring down this regime.”

But Syria is a complicated country, with sizable minorities of Christians and heterodox Muslim sects that have looked with trepidation to the example offered by Iraq’s civil war. The prospect that Mr. Maleh raised — the government’s fall — has alarmed some, particularly among the minorities, who worry about society’s lack of independent institutions to navigate a transition and the fearsome prospect of score-settling in chaos.

“Everything is possible today,” said Michel Kilo, another government critic in Damascus. “If the regime believes that with security they can handle everything, then they will be turning Syria into a breeding ground for all kinds of extremist movements.”…..

Syria Ruling Party Official Says No Tolerance with ’Terrorists’
By Inal Ersan, 2011-04-20, Bloomberg

The Syrian ruling Baath party’s Assistant Secretary-General Mohammad Saeed Bkhaitan said there will be no tolerance with “terrorists” in the Arab country, the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency Reported today. “Events have proven that tolerance and forgiveness doesn’t pay off with the enemies of the nation and those lurking against the security and stability Syria enjoys,” the agency said, citing remarks by Bkhaitan to party officials. The remarks came after five weeks of violent protests across the country to demand greater freedoms.

Syrian authorities urged not to suppress ‘Great Friday’ protests
Amnesty International, 21 April 2011

The Syrian authorities must not respond with violence to mass demonstrations planned across the country tomorrow, Amnesty International urged on the eve of a Facebook-promoted “Great Friday” protest.

“It is imperative that these demonstrations are policed sensibly, sensitively and in accordance with international law to avoid further bloodshed on Syria’s streets,” said Malcolm Smart, Amnesty International’s director for the Middle East and North Africa. “These ‘Great Friday’ protests could be the largest yet. If government security forces resort to the same extremely violent tactics they have used over the past month, the consequences could be exceedingly grave.”

See Qifa Nabki on my discussion with Ammar Abdulhamid. See Ammar’s site.

Syria’s government rushes in reforms
By Sami Moubayed in Asia Times

Lifting the law means security officials can no longer arrest, detain, or interrogate citizens without a proper court warrant. Any person summoned for questioning will be entitled to a fair and public trial in the presence of an attorney.

The new government also canceled the special National Security Court, which was established in 1968. That controversial court has been charged with looking into all cases referred to it by the Military Governor under Emergency Laws, known in Arabic as al-Hakem al-Urfi, and who in this case was the Minister of Interior. All cases currently registered with the now-disbanded court will immediately be referred to civil courts for a fair trial. A previous decision to replace emergency laws with a law for counter-terrorism, similar to the Patriot Act, has been canceled.

There will be neither emergency laws nor counter-terrorism laws in Syria – which is certain to please ordinary Syrians.

Additionally the new government passed a law allowing and regulating peaceful demonstrations in Syria. Although a constitutional right, demonstrating has been off-limits for decades because of the emergency laws mentioned above. Anybody wishing to stage a demonstration today needs to apply for a permit from police. He/she will obtain it provided that they specify a time for the demonstration, along with a location, duration and a guarantee that they will not resort to violence. Demonstrators will also be entitled to police protection while they are on the streets.

Finally, the government is putting the final touches on a new party law that is due for release by the end of April and which allows the establishment of parties with programs different from that of the ruling Ba’ath.

The false hope of revolution in Syria, Posted By May Akl (the press secretary of Lebanese MP Michel Aoun.) Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at Foreign Policy

…In the context of these leaderless revolutions that stemmed from rightful social, economic, and political demands, the only organized and well-structured group has been the Muslim Brotherhood. For 83 years now, the aim of this widespread movement has been to instill the Quran and Sunna as the sole reference for ordering the life of the Muslim family and state. Whether it will finally succeed in doing so by claiming to embrace the hopes and dreams of the Arab youth is not to be ruled out….

The Grand Mufti of Syria, Hassoun, gives a pro-revolution speech, declaring that the demonstrators are not terrorists or after bread, but fighting for dignity.

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Here is Hassoun a couple of weeks ago supporting Assad.

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????? ???? ??? ????? ??????? ?? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ??? ????? ?? ????? ??????? ?????? ??????  reports that the head of political security (al-amn al-siyasi) in Banyas has been detained.

Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of the caretaker government, Elias al-Murr: Translation thanks to mideastwire.com

“This is a question that is on the table nowadays, as the region is ablaze and Syria is in a state of turmoil. We, as Lebanese, must ask ourselves: Which Syria do we want? In these sensitive times, it would be easy to slide into emotional reactions and say: Let there be a regime change in Syria! But what will happen next? What new regime are we talking about? What Syria are we talking about? What type of relations between the two countries are we addressing? The answer is simple: the unknown. Can Lebanon risk heading toward the unknown? Certainly not. Can the Lebanese people handle getting to know a new regime in Syria, its nature, strategy and perception of Lebanon?

… if we were to adopt the ideas of some who are tactically wagering on transformations in Syria, what will be the result? ….  I write to say to each gambler: If these wagers were to lead Lebanon and its people toward the unknown, this unknown is in itself a catastrophe for a country like Lebanon

….This is a storm in a teacup and does not deserve having us tamper with the fate of our children and country and wager on the unknown. I say it loud and clear, and even if the circumstances were to change tomorrow. This is a conviction regardless of the transformations. Support this regime that is led by Al-Assad so that we do not regret it.”

Independent: Can President Assad do what it takes to cleanse his corrupt regime?
By Robert Fisk, 2011-04-20

“People are looking for security forces who will not treat the people like animals.” So said Daeiri el-Eiti last night, a Syrian activist, summing up the thoughts of his country. He was right. In Banias, in Latakia, in Homs, in Aleppo, in Deraa, even in Damascus itself, it is the same thing. As a friend of Bashar al-Assad, the President, said last night, “Bashar is like Fukushima. He is irradiated.”

Is this true? Can this be the end for the Ba’ath party of Syria, the very end of the “Renaissance Party” of the country which Bashar’s father Hafez supported? Is this the end of the Syrian security forces? It seems incredible, but it looks as if all Bashar’s dutiful offers of generosity – an end to the state of emergency, for example – have failed. There are those in Syria who say it is over, that there is nothing Bashar al-Assad can do to save his regime. We shall see…..

The problem lies, as Mr Eiti says, in that Syria remains a dictatorship and that Assad remains a dictator. His failure to rid his own family of the corrupt men within it (I am speaking of his uncle in particular) is the main problem for the regime. This is not a Gaddafi-corrupted government. This is not a Mubarak government. This is an Alawi regime – and essentially a Shia regime – which has been corrupted by its own family. The Assad family knows what it must do to cleanse the family name. Can Bashar do it? Does he have the power to do it? This is all that matters now if he is going to save his regime.

U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings
By RON NIXON
Published: April 14, 2011

U.S. ‘Not Working to Undermine’ Syria, State Department Says
2011-04-18
By Nicole Gaouette

April 18 (Bloomberg) — “We are not working to undermine that government,” Toner said at a briefing. The programs in Syria are similar to those the U.S. runs in other parts of the world to build democratic
institutions, Toner said. “This is part of our support forcivil society and non-governmental organizations. What’s different is the way the Syrian government has reacted.”

Yemen Officials Consider ‘30 + 60’ Plan to End Political Crisis
2011-04-20;  Donna Abu-Nasr

April 20 (Bloomberg) — Discussions to end a political crisis in Yemen are centered around a plan that would have President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down within 30 days of it being announced and guarantee immunity for him, his family and long-time aides, a Yemeni official said. Under the so-called 30 + 60 plan, Saleh would transfer his powers to a deputy and elections would be held 60 days after that, according to Ahmed al-Soufi, secretary general for the Yemeni Institute for the Development of Democracy and a media affairs adviser in the presidential palace.

In the southern town of As Suwayda,Washington Post

protests earlier in the day were met by government supporters in cars and on foot, armed with metal and wooden sticks and belts, a witness said.

“They started to beat everyone they saw in the way,” said Alaa, 24, a protester who did not want his last name used. “They called us anti-regime, spies. They started to swear at us and say dirty words. They said that we are not from As Suwayda, that we are not sons of the mountains, that we are not Arabs.”

Mountaha al-Atrash: NYTimes

“My father led the revolution, but now we are in a police dictatorship and the government is oppressing us violently in every province,” said Mountaha al-Atrash, an elderly opposition figure whose father, Sultan Pasha al-Atrash, led an unsuccessful 1925 uprising against French rule. “The people want their rights, freedom and democracy, and these are legitimate demands.”

She spoke over the phone from her ancestral village of Quraya, where security forces dispersed demonstrators for trying to raise the Syrian flag and sing the national anthem. Her nephew, a grandson of the one-time rebel leader, was badly beaten by the police, she said. Several hundred protesters attempted to rally under a statue of Sultan Pasha al-Atrash in the central al-Shoulaa Square in the nearby town of Suwayda, a center for Syria’s Druze community, but were violently dispersed, said witnesses.

?”We were carrying pictures of the leaders of the revolution and the flag and chanting for a free Syria and oh my God, thugs who are pro-government, aided by security, attacked us,” said a young activist in Suwayda, who asked not to be name for fear of government reprisals. “Women were hit in the street and the pictures of our leaders, or our history makers, were broken.”

Zubaida writes:

I read your blog for years. Now I have to say it is over and I can’t take it anymore. I can’t read one more word about Syria you publish. I am going to unsubscribe, just like canceling my Facebook and shutting the TV. I did the same after 9/11. I couldn’t hear anymore. This is a nightmare and it is not ending. I hope God will prove you all wrong and that after the people causing this destruction to Syria get the freedom they want, we, the people get to keep the Syria we love. A Syria that is not part of a Great Israel or greater Turkey. Not part of a Irani / Iraqi Empire or Muslim brotherhood kingdom. I don’t know if prayers are heard but I am praying to God to prove you all wrong. None of you really care about Syria the place or the Syrian people. None of you care to preserve the little we have. We want our Syria back and away from your news. May God prove you all wrong, may God save and protect Syria.

Prominent dissident writer says country is ripe for change
April 21, 2011 | LA Times

Gamlsa vänner 010Protests continue to convulse the streets of Syria, and the demonstrations that erupted last month have come to pose the greatest challenge to President Bashar Assad’s 11-year rule.

Yassin Haj Saleh, a prominent Syrian writer who spent 16 years in prison as a political dissident, has attended demonstrations in violence- and protest-stricken Syrian cities and feels that the country is absolutely “ripe” for change.

He recently left his home in fear of reprisals by the Syrian authorities and says he is ready to pay “perhaps everything” for a free Syria. So far he’s been living like a hunted man.

“I’ve left home for a fortnight now,” he told Babylon & Beyond. “I’m living here and there and trying to be more careful in my movements. But I am speaking to satellite TV and my number is known, and this is a source of anxiety but I can’t change it. Only in the streets I use my phone. TV channels will speak to me at any time. And that is why I left home — to speak freely about the situation in the country.”

The rest of the interview follows.

From where do you get information about what is happening in the country?

We have a big and trustworthy network of friends. Facebook and email. Of course TV channels. But the most important and precious information I get from my friends in the hot spots.

You’ve already paid a high price. What are you ready to do this time?

Well, I feel that I am at a crucial point of my life. The country is at a crucial point. We have either to win this battle and to face the difficulties of building a free country, and this will take a long time and be difficult. If the regime won this battle, I think we will see a new wave of fascism in the country.

What is your assessment of the mood in the country today? Is the majority saying: I would rather live with the pain that I know than plunge into the unknown?

It is very difficult to answer this question. Nobody expected what happened in the last four weeks in Syria, and week by week the protests are getting larger. So I think protests will broaden, but the problem is that there is a kind of stalemate in the country. People are afraid of what will happen.

I cannot predict what will happen, but I hope that this will lead to change, perhaps not radical change, like what happened in Egypt and Tunisia. But I hope the regime will recognize the legitimacy of the uprising and that our political system will be built on this. In Syria maybe it is dangerous to think of toppling the regime completely. I hope we can reach a … historic compromise, but the problem is that we have the most violent and brutal regime in the region. All depends on what will happen in the Intifada.

POMED writes:

Senators Condemn Use of Violence in Syria: Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) spoke on the Senate floor on Thursday urging U.S. support for the Syrian uprising. He called for sanctions to be put in place in concert with European allies and also called for a special session of the U.N. Human Rights Council as well as a referral of Assad’s regime to the International Criminal Court.Senator John Kerry (D-MA) asserted that Syria’s goals to begin modernizing and entering into relationships with the international community will be denied unless Assad’s government ceases to use violence against its own people.

Discussion on U.S. Policy Toward Syria: David Schenker argued that a policy of maintaining stability in Damascus is not in America’s vested interest. Along with Andrew J. Tabler, Schenker also called for a suspension of U.S. investment in Syria, increases in multilateral sanctions, and for the White House to target specific members of the regime. Human Rights Watch issued a report demanding that the Syrian government end its inhumane treatment of protesters. Former Canadian Ambassador to Syria, Brian J. Davis, stated that Assad’s eventual downfall has already been determined.

POMED also reports on this document:

A three-page document allegedly obtained from Syrian security services detailed government counter-measures to protests. The document provides specific and often brutal directives for handling different levels of unrest and even proposed policy measures.

Scott Macleod, who used to write for Time, has started a new review: He writes:

The new publication I’ve been working on, called the Cairo Review of Global Affairs (produced by American University in Cairo), is launching this week. The first issue has a special report on “Arab Revolution” and includes articles by Ahmed Zewail, William B. Quandt, Princeton Lyman, Shibley Telhami and Shadi Hamid, and interviews with Amr Khaled, Nabil Fahmy, Essam El-Erian, Alaa Al Aswany and Amr Hamzawy among others: http://www.thecairoreview.com/ or on Twitter: http://twitter.com/cairoreview We have a Huffpo-style blog called Tahrir Forum on the website.
Best regards, scott

Ammar Abdulhamid and Joshua Landis Discuss the Syrian Uprising
20 April 2011
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