Ali Sadraddin Bayanouni, the head of Syria's Muslim Brotherhood, has declared that the MB's embrace of democracy means that it will accept a woman or Christian becoming president of Syria if they are elected to the position. 

This is an important step forward for the Brotherhood.  

What is next? Will Bayanouni and the Muslim Brothers say that they recognize Alawites, Druze and Ismailis as People of the Book and ligitimate presidents?

Traditionally, these three minority communities have not been accepted as Muslim by Islamic scholars. Bayanouni has never said explicitly that he recognizes members of Syria's Shiite off-shoots to be Muslims. He has said that the Alawite dominated presidency is opposed by the MB for political reasons. Recently, he has also begun to claim that the Syrian regime is a "family" dominated regime and not an "Alawite" dominated regime, thus clarifying that the MB is anti Asad-family-rule and not anti-Alawite, per se.  

The problem with the minority sects from an Islamic point of view is that they do not embrace a revealed religion and are not part of the legitimate Abrahamic tradition, which makes them inferior to women or Christians. They are classified as pagans. In Syrian school texts on Islam, it is stated that anyone who does not embrace one of the Abrahamic religions "must convert to Islam or be killed." (9th Grade text on Islamic Religion, page 128.) See my article on Islamic Education in Syria.  

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Israel's Syria Raid Opens Rifts

Discord Stirs Among Allies
Over Response to Nuclear Threat

Wall Street Journal, By JAY SOLOMON
October 29, 2007

WASHINGTON — Following Israel's attack on an alleged Syrian nuclear facility, the U.S. and international community are increasingly split over how to respond to the latest nuclear-proliferation threat in the Middle East.

The discord also underscores a deep mistrust between the U.S. and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, over how to confront would-be proliferators, particularly in the wake of the Iraq war, American and IAEA officials say.

The Syria episode is exposing rifts between hard-liners in Washington and the Israeli government, which after the strike has promoted a surprisingly moderate stance toward Damascus, fearing a possible retaliation. This is in sharp contrast to Israel's position on Iran and Tehran's declared nuclear program, according to Middle East analysts.

Over the past week, counterproliferation experts within and outside the U.S. government have voiced growing conviction that before Israeli aircraft struck on Sept. 6, Damascus was in initial stages of developing nuclear capability. The Israeli military refused to confirm or deny the incident. Damascus protested the attack to the U.N., but denies it has been developing nuclear technologies.

Meanwhile, commercially developed satellite photos made public by independent U.S. companies and think tanks, including Washington's Institute for Science and International Security, show what its proliferation experts said they believed was Syria's early attempt to develop a nuclear reactor, along the lines of North Korea's Yongbyon facility. These counterproliferation experts, as well as U.S. officials, cite a Syrian facility on the Euphrates River as the likely target of the Israeli attack. The facility's size, positioning and structure conform to the designs of Pyongyang's Yongbyon reactor, say U.S. officials who have seen the intelligence.

In recent days, these officials say, satellite photos show the Syrian government recently razed the site, stoking more concerns that Damascus is attempting to cover up its covert nuclear activities.

"I would say there's no doubt now that Syria was in an early phase of a program," said a senior U.S. official who has worked extensively on nuclear issues. "There's still an incredible debate about whether it was far enough along to know if it was a facility for nuclear weapons."

Syria's ambassador to the U.N., Bashar Jaafari, denied last week in New York the proliferation charges and said Washington and Israel were concocting the intelligence to weaken Damascus. "There are no nuclear sites in Syria. …All these rumors have only one justification, one goal: to cover up the Israeli aggression."

The evidence of Syrian nuclear activity has divided the IAEA on one side and the U.S. and Israel on the other. Following the air strike, IAEA President Mohamed El-Baradei asked to see the intelligence that prompted the attack.

The agency also is seeking information from Damascus about its alleged nuclear program. As a signatory to the U.N.'s Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Syria is required to inform the IAEA of any attempt to develop a nuclear fuel cycle, even if it is for energy purposes only. IAEA member states such as the U.S. and Israel are also expected to share any such information concerning proliferation threats.

"At the IAEA, we have zero, and I stress 'zero' information" on the attack, Mr. El-Baradei told the French newspaper Le Monde last week. "Frankly, I venture to hope that before people decide to bombard and use force, they will come and see us to convey their concerns. We would then have gone there to check."

But U.S. and Israeli officials said they have no intention of cooperating with the IAEA on the Syria issue. Some U.S. diplomats derided the U.N. agency for failing to identify the Syrian program itself. These U.S. officials said involving the IAEA before the Israeli strike could have bogged down the Syrian proliferation threat in endless rounds of negotiations at the U.N. Security Council, with no action.

"The Israelis decided to take care of this early on," said the U.S. official working on nuclear-proliferation issues. "We don't want to involve an agency that thinks it's in control, but isn't."

Israel, however, is in a delicate dance with some of its traditional allies in Washington on how to respond to the attack's repercussions. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and other Israeli senior officials have voiced a continued desire in recent weeks to try to engage Syrian President Bashar Assad in peace talks. Many Israeli officials say their government and the U.S. should seek ways to woo Damascus to help stabilize the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Iraq.

Israel's emerging strategy for handling Syria, say U.S. and Israeli officials, is to identify clear red lines for Damascus not to cross militarily, but to also keep the window open for negotiations. On the nuclear issue, these officials say, Israel is hoping the attack will serve as a deterrent, not a provocation.

"All the Israelis want is for the Syrians to know they're being watched," said the American diplomat working on nuclear-proliferation issues.

Last Friday, the Israeli military announced it was moving planned military exercises away from the disputed Golan Heights territory to avoid further heightening tensions with Syria, the Associated Press reported from Jerusalem.

The Bush administration is offering few signs it would be willing to support Israeli efforts to engage Mr. Assad. Indeed, the Bush administration has moved to ratchet up financial sanctions and travel bans on Syrian officials for alleged attempts to overthrow the Lebanese government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora.

Write to Jay Solomon at [email protected] 

Chief UN nuclear watchdog Mohamed ElBaradei Sunday accused Israel of taking "the law into their own hands" with a raid on Syria and demanded more information about what was hit.

Neither Israel nor the United States has furnished "any evidence at all" to prove that the Syrian site bombed last month was a secret nuclear facility, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency told CNN.

This from Ray Close (ex-CIA station chief in Saudi Arabia)

Dear Friends:

More thoughts about the ongoing mystery surrounding the Israeli air raid on Syria of September 6, 2007:

I still believe that the final truth, whenever it is revealed, will prove to be a major embarrassment for both the Bush administration and the Israelis — and possibly some Arabs. There MUST have been a colossal screw-up by some or all of those who planned, approved and implemented the action.  I can think of no other plausible explanation for Bush's angry and petulant refusal to give the White House press corps a polite and informative reply to their repeated questions — and for the administration's apparent failure so far to brief many of the key members of the appropriate committees of Congress —— of either party.  If it could be represented as a necessity, and as the successful treatment of a real and imminent threat to the vital national interests of either the United States or Israel, then why the hell not step up and explain your actions and the reasons that justified it?

As an aside:  I hope the rumors are false that the Jordanians, Egyptians and Saudis all approved of the Israeli raid when they were (allegedly) briefed in advance (possibly by Dick Cheney in person, without the knowledge of Condi Rice and Bob Gates) that it was coming. How foolish it would have been for any Arab government to approve such an Israeli action, because they should all know from sad experience that sooner or later the secret would leak out, to their acute distress. 

In my mind, the biggest question remains the degree of American involvement in the planning and implementation of the raid.  Even if the target was really the beginnings of a nuclear weapons plant, the justification for preemptive military action would be very weak, considering the fact that it would be many years before we could justifiably claim that Syria posed an imminent nuclear threat to Israel.  Much more important, in the full measure of things, is the damage that another unjustified preemptive attack would do to the critical objective of fortifying the weak and wobbling system of international rules and controls to prevent widescale proliferation of nuclear weapons.  Today, destroying a pathetically crude and ill-advised Syrian attempt to begin a nuclear program might impress some people as striking a blow for freedom, but it would in fact be a major defeat for the larger goal of supporting civilized implementation of an international rule of law.  If George Bush and Dick Cheney have helped to undermine that vitally important overarching objective by involving America in another unjustified and unwarranted violation of international law in this case, then they will have done us all a disservice of major historical importance. 

(By the way, if the goal was to send a warning signal to Iran, then that message has been thoroughly obscured in the fog of Foggy Bottom.  Yesterday, in speaking of the Israeli raid, Condi Rice said archly:  "Iran, take note!"  Take note of WHAT, Madam Secretary?  If your own Senate Foreign Relations Committee has not been given a coherent explanation of what happened, how to you expect Ahmedinajad to know what you're talking about? Are you saying that if Iran misbehaves, we will send the Israeli Air Force to teach them a lesson? What does that tell the world about the quality of the American president's world leadership role?)

One cannot minimize the fact that American collusion with Israel in such an offensive act would be a disastrous blow to our relationships with our few remaining Arab friends.  We got away with that many years ago at the time of the Israeli attack on the Iraqi nuclear facility at Osirak (which, we should be reminded, the United States officially condemned as illegal at the time), but today it's a different Middle East, and we have no reserve of goodwill capital to fall back on.  How would the Egyptian, Jordanian and Saudi governments, for example, explain and justify such action today by its so-called US ally?

Finally, we might all hold out some hope that the Bush administration's refusal to be transparent on this issue is because they attach a higher priority to keeping alive the prospects of a constructive peace conference on Palestine-Israel scheduled to be held sometime next month at Annapolis. 

However, if that is the case, then it tells us three very significant things:

     1.  The Israeli leadership attaches a higher priority to restoring the credibility of its military dominance over its neighbors than it does to supporting American diplomatic efforts to advance the peace process — on which Israel's real security ultimately depends;

     2.  The (supposedly) most powerful and influential leader is the whole world is unable or unwilling to persuade the leader of tiny little Israel that reaching a viable peace settlement in the region deserves a higher priority than obliterating an empty building hundreds of miles from anywhere in the remote Syrian desert.  George Bush, in other words, lacks the political courage and the moral stature to say to his Israeli friend:  "Cool it, Ehud.  I have more important problems to deal with right now.  Don't ask for my help in undertaking a spectacular diversion of strictly minor significance, for your personal political benefit, just at a time when I am involved in much more critical and delicate undertakings."

     3.  The Bush administration is too cowardly to admit to the American people and to the world the truth of the two points just mentioned above.

Ray Close

More questions are being raised about the solidity of Washington's allegations that the site in Syria hit by Israel was a nuclear plant. A 2003 photo of the site has just been published by the NY Times, which forces us to go back to the four year old debates over whther Syria was developing nuclear power. Bolton and his neocon hawks lost the debate at the time. The CIA and State Department intelligence prevailed over neocon allegations. They argued that the Syrian danger was either being inflated or misread. 

In the intervening years, Bolton has tried to make the case for a nuclear Syria three times. Each time he was wrong. The three times were: 1. He accused Syria of taking in Saddam's WMD and nuclear stuff. He was wrong. 2. He accused Syria of being part of the Khan, Pakistani ring of nuclear proliferators along with Libya. Wrong. Mohammed el Beradae said no indication of this existed and challenged Bolton, who backed down. 3. Finally, a ship traveling from North Korea to Syria was stopped in Nicosia, Cyprus and searched because Interpol indicated it was transporting nuclear technology. It turned out to have nothing but defensive missile technology aboard. It was allowed to continue on its way. Three times Bolton tried to accuse Syria of developing nuclear weapons and came up short. What is different about this time?

The mystery surrounding the construction of what might have been a nuclear reactor in Syria deepened yesterday, when a company released a satellite photo showing that the main building was well under way in September 2003 — four years before Israeli jets bombed it.

The long genesis is likely to raise questions about whether the Bush administration overlooked a nascent atomic threat in Syria while planning and executing a war in Iraq, which was later found to have no active nuclear program.

A senior American intelligence official said yesterday that American analysts had looked carefully at the site from its early days, but were unsure then whether it posed a nuclear threat. …

In the summer of 2003, Mr. Bolton’s testimony on Capitol Hill was delayed after a dispute erupted in part over whether Syria was actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. Some intelligence officials said Mr. Bolton overstated the Syrian threat.

“There was disagreement about what Syria was interested in and how much we should be monitoring it,” Mr. Bolton said in an interview yesterday. “There was activity in Syria that I felt was evidence that they were trying to develop a nuclear program.”

Mr. Bolton declined to say whether he had knowledge at the time about the site that the Israelis struck in September.

Spokesmen for the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Council declined to comment.

Phantoms Over Syria
Eveything Israel wants you to know about its secret airstrike
by Philip Giraldi 

There are other reasons that depicting Damascus as the latest nuclear aspirant is suspect. Destroying a weapons facility would scatter traces of radioactive material that could be detected, especially since the attack took place close to the Turkish border. No such evidence has been reported. Also notable is the absence of solid intelligence. If Israel knows conclusively that Syria has a nuclear program, surely it would have made its case in the wake of the Sept. 6 raid. Far from doing so, Tel Aviv has kept a security lid on the incident, suggesting that it would prefer to promote the story of a military success against Damascus without being too specific about the details.

Even the Bush White House, generally willing to use any hint of malfeasance to condemn Damascus and Tehran, has been reluctant to confirm the story. It doesn’t need to. Official silence—narrated by a compliant press taking uncorroborated dictation—is cementing a public impression. That’s the way disinformation works. Done right, no one stops to ask where it came from—or who benefits……
__________________________________________

Philip Giraldi, a former CIA Officer, is a partner in Cannistraro Associates, an international security consultancy.  

A British civil engineer, who explains that his "father worked as an engineer in the British nuclear power industry on among, other items, refueling machines for gas-cooled reactors and fuel design for breeder reactors. I visited my first nuclear power station (a Magnox one) in my early teens." [The Syrian and North Korean sites were copied from a British Magnox prototype.] He writes

Joshua,

If the Syrian Ambassador says that the building hit was a military warehouse then I am inclined to believe him with the only qualification that if the building in the ISIS report was indeed the target then it could more accurately be described as a storage bunker.

The ISIS report states that the North Korean reactor is based on an old Russian design. This is rubbish, any expert would know that the North Koreans based their reactor on the old British Magnox design.

The building shown in the ISIS report does not correspond with existing known Magnox reactor sites for one very simple reason. Where are all the ancillary buildings? If you look at the Yongbyon site in North Korea or the Calder Hall and Chapelcross sites in the UK, you will see a large number of ancillary buildings which contain such facilities as canteens, washrooms and changing facilities laboratories and offices. Where are the spent fuel storage facilities?

For example, the Calder Hall site consists of 62 separate buildings – OK, there are four larger reactors at Calder Hall but I would certainly expect to see more than the "reactor building" and one additional building of indeterminate use. If you look at Yongbyon you will also see a fuel fabrication, plutonium reprocessing and laboratory facilities next door to the reactor. Fuel fabrication for the UK Magnox reactors was admittedly performed at another site (Springfield in Lancashire) but that was because the British intended to have a large civilian nuclear program as well and fuel reprocessing was performed at the Windscale next door to Calder Hall.

Now some may say that it is in the early stages of construction and that the ancillary building will appear later so where are the construction materials and the site offices – just look at any large construction project to see what I mean.

Magnox reactors are gas-cooled rather than water cooled so there would need to be a heat exchanger to transfer heat to the cooling water – no sign of that or the associated pipe work yet – so is the “pump” a pump?

The North Koreans have ringed the reactor at Yongbyon with 22 missile batteries according to the Global Security website – one would expect the Syrians to do something similar – they have done this at their alleged chemical weapons site at Al Saffir.

Finally, the building is not tall enough – the fuel channels in a Magnox reactor run vertically and the fuel elements need to be handled with a refuelling machine to protect the site workers from radiation from the spent fuel. Typically, there is one fuel element per channel so the refuelling machine needs to be taller than the reactor core is high. So, to accommodate the refuelling machine there needs to be a substantial space above the top of the reactor. The two ISIS analysts allude to this in their comments:

The taller roof of North Korea’s reactor measures approximately 32 meters by 24 meters on its sides. There also appears to be a faint square on top of the Syrian building’s roof. It is unclear whether something would be built there, but its dimensions, 24 meters by 22 meters, are consistent with the subsequent construction of an upper roof.

To build a reinforced concrete roof and then almost immediately cut a hole in it to build an extension on top is just plain stupid. Once you start assembling the reactor core out of graphite blocks, there is no way that you would contemplate further unnecessary construction work above that.

Regards, …
High Wycombe, UK

Yesterday William Arkin wrote that it was “hard to believe that Syria … is stupid enough to think it could build a nuclear reactor and get away with it”.

Steve Clemons raises the same question:

“But on a more theoretical level, I guess one question I have is why would Syria even start down that path given all that Iran is now going through. Missile enhancements seems understandable — but this nuke path, if correct, doesn’t make strategic sense.”
The Washington Note

The Syrian government’s decision to launch treasury bills will be welcomed warmly by the country’s private-sector banks
1 November 2007, 
Economist Intelligence Unit  Economist Intelligence Unit 

The government has finally passed decrees on two important policy innovations—on the exchange rate peg and the introduction of treasury bills—which were first flagged up by Adib Mayaleh, the governor of the Central Bank of Syria, in late 2006. The measures indicate that Syria’s financial and economic reform process has maintained some of its momentum, despite the Assad regime’s increasing political isolation. However, there have been setbacks in the area of fiscal reform, with plans for introducing valued-added tax back by one year to 2009 and with doubts surfacing over whether a programme to phase out fuel price subsidies will be put into effect.

Following the passage in mid-August of a decree approving the shift of the reference point for the exchange rate from the US dollar, the central bank in early October included a note on its website to the effect that the dollar peg has now definitively been abandoned in favour of the SDR, which is weighted 44% to US dollar, 34% to the euro and 11% each to the yen and sterling. In the three months leading up to the formal announcement of the new peg, the local currency appreciated by about 3% against the dollar, with the rate announced by the central bank moving from S£50.45:US$1 at the end of June to S£48.80:US$1 in mid-October. There has also been a modest depreciation against the euro over the same period to S£69.4:€1 in mid-October from S£68.33:€1 at end-June.

Debt management

The decree on treasury bills offers the prospect of a significant change in both the government’s management of public debt and in the operations of Syrian banks. The decree (No. 60) sets out the principles and regulatory framework for issuing treasury bills, with further details to be provided in the form of executive regulations to be announced by the prime minister at a later date based on the recommendations of a government securities management committee.

This committee is to be chaired by the finance minister. Its six other members will include the central bank governor and the chairman of the Syrian Commission on Financial Markets and Securities (the regulatory agency for the stockmarket, which is scheduled to start operations in early 2008).

The decree states that the maturity of the treasury securities must be at least one year, and that they may not exceed 30 years. The proceeds of the issues may be used to finance the general budget deficit, as well as for projects of national priority and for emergencies. The decree also sets limits of 60% of GDP for domestic and external debt, respectively, and of 80% for overall public debt. According to the IMF, Syria’s total government debt was equivalent to 35.9% of GDP at end 2006, with domestic debt of 16.5% of GDP and external debt standing at 19.4%.

Besides allowing the authorities more flexibility in managing public debt, the introduction of T-bills will provide much-needed new instruments in which Syria’s newly created private banks will be able to invest. These banks have had great success in attracting deposits, but have faced difficulty in placing these funds productively. According to central bank figures reproduced by the IMF, private banks in 2006 captured 70% of the increase in private-sector deposits and contributed 45% of the growth in loans to the private sector. Their share in private-sector deposits reached 25% at the end of last year, whereas they accounted for 14% of total loans to that sector.

Listing rules

Decree 60 states that the T-bills will be tradable on the new financial securities market. The prospects for that market opening as planned early next year have brightened, with several recent indications of progress in laying the groundwork for this development. The stockmarket regulator has issued its first permanent licence to a financial intermediary—Pioneers Securities of Egypt (BME Oct 15th-31st 2007)—and the government has passed a decree laying out the steps for family-owned firms to convert themselves into joint-stock companies.

According to Al Thawra, a state-run newspaper, the regulator has also issued the criteria for listing companies on both the main stockmarket and on a junior exchange (the regulator has yet to publish these details on its own website). For a full listing, a company must have been trading for at least three years and have minimum capital of S£300m (US$6.1m), fully paid up, with at least 300 shareholders. It must also present three years of accounts audited to international standards, with no reservations, and its annual net profit over the previous two years must have averaged not less than 5% of paid-up capital. For the alternative market, a company must have been trading for at least two years, with capital of at least S£100m and at least 100 shareholders. Companies will also be required to submit prompt periodical reports about their activities. The rules will allow for non-Syrian companies to be listed as well as domestic firms.

Satellite Photos Show Cleansing of Syrian Site

Two new good papers at Brookings:

Steven Heydemann writes about "Authoritarian Upgrading in the Arab World." He says "Comments welcome." [[email protected]]. It features Syria, about which Steven has written an excellent book and many articles.

Bilal Saab writes: "Scenarios – Lebanon’s Presidential Elections"

Also on opposition news see "Letter Addressed by Damascus Declaration Beirut Chapter To the Jews of the World"

Ibrahim Hamidi, al-Hayat's bureau chief in Damascus, has just returned from Turkey where he covered the Assad visit. He writes: "Hello, I just came back from Turkey. It was a really good experience." I attach an article published in Sam Moubayed's magazine, Forward. Cheers, Ibrahim

The Beirutization of Damascus

The Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005 accelerated the reform process in Syria. Everything that could be found in Beirut is now readily available in Damascus. This social revolution in the Syrian capital has yet to spread to the rest of Syria.  Ibrahim Hamidi 

Syria is changing. Not all of Syria, however, is included in this change. The speed of change varies. It is quick for those living inside Syria, although they may not feel it on a daily basis. Things are different for an expatriate, who sees the change process as slow, incapable of coping with the rapid spread of globalization. The expatriate, however, acknowledges how deep and symbolic this change actually is. The one who feels the change most, however, is the Syrian who has been away from his country for many years. He feels the change the minute he walks into Damascus International Airport.

Syria no longer looks like Cuba or North Korea. True, some security personnel still do not greet visitors in a proper manner. Routine is still paramount at border crossings. Advertising billboards, however, are everywhere to be found. There are duty free shops at all border entrances, just like in any other country in the world. No sooner does a visitor finish with all official formalities at passport control and the customs department, than he finds a completely different setting awaiting him. It is the private sector. Private transport companies, private GSM providers, and private banks all ‘welcoming’ visitors to Syria.  

Within the city, the situation is different yet similar; full of contradictions. Buildings dating back to the Soviet legacy, copied from the Eastern bloc. Huge buildings, constructed from grey cement, with neither life nor taste. These are mostly government and residential buildings, all constructed by the public sector, aimed at accommodating the largest number of ‘proletariats’ in the smallest amount of space. These buildings are not new.

What’s new is the change that has overcome the architectural philosophy of Damascus. New beautiful buildings are sprouting all over town. The Damascenes were stingy when it came to spending on exteriors, as opposed to the interiors of their homes, unlike the people of Aleppo, who spent lavishly on both. Today, new touches have started to appear on Damascene architecture. Good examples of this architectural renaisance and concern for beauty are the Four Seasons Hotel and the Cham Islamic Bank, which have sprouted up like spring flowers amidst ‘boring’ monuments of the previous era.  

In Syria today one can open private schools, universities, and banks. It is possible to spend thousands of US dollars on international brands like Prada, Dior, and Gucci. Even Gap, which is banned in several Arab countries, has found its way to Damascus, which hosts the General Secretariat of Boycotting Israeli Products. KFC—the symbol of Americanization—can now also be found in one of the most elegant streets of Damascus.  

Some residents of the Syrian capital live a life that does not resemble that of other Syrians. They wake up at will to drink Nescafe or head to one of the numerous coffeehouses that are scattered all over town. There is an In-House Coffee chain in the Syrian capital, along with a chain for Gemini restaurants. Newly opened is the Costa coffeehouse near the Four Seasons.

The few Syrians who can afford this luxury can now chose from a mixture of coffee blends and flavors. Supermarket shelves are now filled with the finest products. A few years ago, availability of sugar or cooking fat was an event in itself in Damascus. There was a scarcity of products in Syria but not anymore. The opening of a  mini-market was a big event. It is now natural to hear that the Cham City Center, a huge mall, has opened in the Kafarsouseh neighborhood. It is no longer surprising to see that it contains international brand names, automobiles, food stuff, and designer clothes.

There is also a newfound interest in healthy products—ironically, in a country that invented greasy Arabic cooking and Oriental sweets. Transportation is simple. Public buses are still available. They are colored in white, and come from Iran. Mini buses are also available, and so are yellow taxi cabs.

What is new is the large number of luxury cars speeding through the Syrian capital. Some of them cannot even be found in the countries of their origin. Maserati. Hummer. Lamborghini. Bentley. And of course, Jaguar, Mercedes Benz, and BMW. All of them can now be found in Damascus.  

After drinking blended coffee, and chatting through a wireless connection on one’s laptop, these privileged few Syrians can kill some more time with telephone business deals, made through one’s own mobile. It is no longer needed to go to Lebanon to deposit revenue from these ‘business deals.’ One can make us of the seven private banks that have started operation in Syria, with a total deposit that has reached $3 billion USD.  

For lunch—or dinner—there is a wide variety of restaurants to chose from; Turkish, Indian, Japanese, Chinese, Mexican, French, and Italian. All of them are located in the posh neighborhoods of Damascus. Oriental restaurants can still be found in the Old City. It must be noted that a 4-person meal at any of the se restaurants is equivalent to the monthly salary of a senior official in the government service.  

Those with correct fitness and age can now also flex their muscles at the numerous health clubs that have sprouted all over town. Those with abundant time can get a massage or healthy herbal prescriptions at the doctor’s clinic. After caring for the body, one can then turn attention to what he or she is wearing. The ‘openness’ of these last few months have created a wide variety to chose from. Taboos of the previous era—foreign label clothes—are now within reach. Almost instantly, international brand names mushroomed all over Damascus. It is no longer surprising to find boutiques in the posh districts of the Syrian capital. The surprise lies in finding them in the old commercial districts of the city.

The finest examples are Villa Moda, a fashion outlet in the Midhat Pasha Street near the ancient Hamidyya Bazaar, and L’Avenue, an old Damascene palace that has been transformed into a modern fashion boutique. It contains expensive items of clothing, where a woman’s jacket can cost up to $2000 USD—after a 50% discount.

Contradictions are ripe over here as well since these boutiques are located amidst a multitude of small shops that have been selling cheese and salty refreshments for centuries. Ever since the Ottoman Era, they have been offering products to average Syrians for no more than a few Syrian piasters. Also located in the vicinity of these new fashion shops are small ones selling school stationary, adorned with photos of Hizbullah chief Hasan Nasrallah and his yellow party flag. Suddenly, in the heart of all of this, one finds a large exquisite wooden door—the entrance of a cave carrying all of Ali Baba’s secrets. Customers need to be ‘armed’ before entering, with a chauffeur driven automobile, a Visa Card, or thousands of US dollars in order to purchase in cash from Ali Baba’s cave.  

On the western boulevard of the Four Seasons Hotel, one finds Rotana Café, with its expensive prices and breathtaking waitresses. A few meters from this ‘globalized’ scene is a public station for small warn-out buses. They carry thousands of workers per day to and from their jobs, for a fee of 5 SP per passenger. These are two different worlds indeed. Nothing unites them except geographic proximity.  Morning coffee. Online chatting. Cosmopolitan lunch, French perfumes, and foreign clothes with international brand names imprinted on them.

Everything seems set for a wild night out in the city. More options are now available than ever before, from the Marmar Nightclub in the Old City to the Amigos Club on the northern entrance of Damascus. There are many such venues both in the old and new city and one can easily spot them by the valet parking and security guards—bouncers—stationed at their doors, all hired from the private sector. What happens within them is similar to what happens in similar places around the world; drinking, dancing, romanticizing, and rising ecstasy from a particular scent in a particular corner of the club. Those who still enjoy an Oriental final to their evening—after clubbing all night long—wrap up with foul or hummos, obtained from the Midan district of Old Damascus.  

Some of the few—or their children—can now also go to university in Syria. Private universities have opened after all, and are teaching in English for a tuition that is payable in US dollars. That also applies to private schools. In addition to the American, French, and Pakistani schools, which have been around for decades, private schools emerged in recent years, based on foreign curriculums and a high annual tuition that reaches up to thousands of US dollars.  

All of this means that Beirut is no longer important. The need for Beirut is over. What Beirut used to provide for some Syrians can now generously be found in Damascus. The Syrians were accustomed to spending their weekends in Beirut; coffee at Verdun, lunch at the downtown district of the Lebanese capital, and shopping with thousands of US dollars. Lebanese banks used to perform transactions for their Syrian customers and other services that could not be found in state-run banks in Syria. One well informed source commented saying: “Instead of spending these dollars in Lebanon, they are now being spent in Syria. It is the same segment of society—all that has changed is the market.”  

There is no disagreement that the Syrian troop withdrawal from Lebanon in April 2005 accelerated the Lebanonization of Syria, and the Beirutization of Damascus. This was in appearance, scent, food, and spending. One can now see how the ‘few Syrians’ look—and where they socialize—in a variety of Syrian publications that cover social events in Damascus and Aleppo, like Layalina Magazine, Star, and What’s On. Those interested in reading about politics and cultural affairs can browse through Syria Today and FORWARD, two famous English-speaking Syrian magazines.

They were founded by a team of graduates from the American University of Beirut (AUB) and other Western universities. Online, one can find further reading in Syrian websites like Syria News and Cham Press. One can enjoy light readings in the daily newspaper Baladna or through the cultural/political daily, al-Watan.  Syrians no longer need to tune onto Lebanese radio channels to follow the latest Arabic and Western music. Commercial, non-political radio stations have also started operating in Damascus.

Official news sources however, in TV, radio, and the printed media, are still there, just like the case with public sector banks, universities, and schools. No sooner than one leaves this limited new and modernized circle than he finds himself back to a bygone era—as if nothing has changed. Thousands still embark to their schools every morning, paying measly tuition. At dawn, millions still go to their factories, crops, and mosques. Change has not reached all parts of Syria. It only affected some districts and neighborhoods.

There is a bigger world out there—very different from the one that is experienced by the wealthy few. According to official statistics, 11% of Syria’s 18 million people live below the poverty line. There is a 9% unemployment rate; approximately 1 million of Syria’s work force. Most of the unemployed are young people. One needs only to talk a walk through rural Syria to confront how different things actually are.

On Thursday and Friday evenings, thousands of families go out on picnics, bundled in their Pick-Up trucks or small three-wheel automobiles. They settle in the numerous public parks and spaces of Damascus for a family gathering that costs them nothing. The situation is different from that of the ‘few’ in Syria’s urban interior. The pace of change is slow. The repercussions of ‘openness’ have not reached these districts. People commute with simple public transportation. When they return they eat at home. The only pleasure is watching Arab satellite TV. Those interested in politics watch debate shows. Those looking for entertainment watch the abundant number of drama series that are broadcasted around the year. Those who are still in their adolescent years wait until late after midnight to watch de-coded Western channels. But life doesn’t change as fast as it does in the virtual world.

Dreams that are beamed into living rooms from satellite TV are must faster than society’s ability to change and cope with them. Some find salvation in depression and isolation. Others find it at religious lessons or the local mosque. They look for the second life. Some still search for victory. That’s why Hasan Nasrallah is so popular in these districts. People raise his photo and the Flag of Hizbullah over trees, village posts, and the rooftops of their humble homes.  

The Syrian scene is becoming increasingly complicated and contradictory. One segment increases in wealth. It gains education and ‘globalizes’ rapidly. Gradual economic reform, along with Gulf investment money pouring into real estate and tourism. The appearance of indicators signaling extravagance and luxury. On the other hand, other indictors point to more needs among the general population.

There are is talk of a drawback in oil revenue. People are becoming increasingly unable to meet their basic needs. These are early warnings for great poverty. They are topped with religious and nationalistic radicalization in a region that is becoming increasingly sectarian. It is not easy to envision the future in Syria. This needs analysis, study, observation—and a early warning vision with caution.  

Ibrahim Hamidi is bureau chief for the London-based al-Hayat newspaper in Syria.

The Syrian nuke issue remains a "he-said-she said" issue until the photos are made available for public scrutiny.

Interview with Imad Moustapha, Syrian Ambassador to Washington.

The Israelis know very well, and the United States knows absolutely well, that there is no Syrian nuclear program whatsoever. It’s an absolutely blatant lie. And it’s not like they think we have but they’re not sure. They know. Let me be clear about it: Syria has never, ever contemplated acquiring nuclear technology. We are not contemplating it today. We are not contemplating doing this in the future – neither for military nor for civilian purposes.

All I’m saying is that every story that has to do with a Syrian nuclear program is an absolutely false story, full stop. Nothing whatsoever that Syria is doing has to do with nuclear technology for reasons that are simple for anyone to analyze: We are realists. We understand that if Syria even contemplated nuclear technology, then the gates of hell would open on us.

In Syria, we believe that the only way forward is to reach a peace agreement with the Israelis. We are realists. We do understand that the Israelis enjoy military superiority compared to the Syrian capabilities. … We also understand that the Israelis know very well that, despite their sheer military superiority, they cannot impose on us forever their policies of occupation. …

Then what did Israel attack?

Israel attacked a military installation in Syria. This is not unprecedented in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict. … It was a military warehouse. …  

I have written three letters to The New York Times telling them: Have you forgotten what you have done prior to the Iraq war, when you published all the fallout stories about the Iraqi WMDs? Don’t you realize that you’re being “Judith Millered” for the second time within five years? I’m trying to tell The New York Times: Look, be careful. Can’t you see that you are being led into extremely dangerous territory? You are accusing a country of doing something it has not even contemplated doing – based on nothing. Based on leaks from Israeli agents who are very happy playing this game.

Photographs Said to Show Israeli Target Inside Syria
By Robin Wright and Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 24, 2007; Page A01

Independent experts have pinpointed what they believe to be the Euphrates River site in Syria that was bombed by Israel last month, and satellite imagery of the area shows buildings under construction roughly similar in design to a North Korean reactor capable of producing nuclear material for one bomb a year, the experts say.

Photographs of the site taken before the secret Sept. 6 airstrike depict an isolated compound that includes a tall, boxy structure similar to the type of building used to house a gas-graphite reactor. They also show what could have been a pumping station used to supply cooling water for a reactor, say experts David Albright and Paul Brannan of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).

U.S. and international experts and officials familiar with the site, who were shown the photographs yesterday, said there was a strong and credible possibility that they depict the remote compound that was attacked. Israeli officials and the White House declined to comment.

Addendum: t_desco wrote in the comment section,

"Speaking of pictures… Syrian Reactor Update CBS News.

To me it does look similar to the Yongbyon reactor, which is compared in this article:

ISIS Imagery Brief: PDF
Suspect Reactor Construction Site in Eastern Syria: The Site of the September 6 Israeli Raid?
by David Albright and Paul Brannan
October 24, 2007

 'Airburst' tests signal Syrian intentions for missile warheads

WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence has acquired evidence that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad has enhanced its nonconventional warheads for the Scud C and Scud D ballistic missiles. Officials said Damascus has developed airburst capability for its ballistic missiles that would enable the warheads to detonate in the air. "Airburst capability would make chemical and biological weapons warheads much more lethal," an official said. Officials said the Syrian military has conducted ballistic missile airburst tests over the last year for both conventional and nonconventional warheads. They said the program was meant to develop a warhead that would explode several hundred meters in the air to allow for maximum distribution of lethal agents. The U.S. intelligence community has been unable to determine the success of Syria's efforts, officials said. But they said the airburst requirement was crucial for Syria's chemical weapons program. Syria has been aided by North Korea and perhaps Iran in developing airburst capability, the officials said. Both countries have established a significant presence in Syria and were facilitating Damascus's ballistic missile and nonconventional weapons programs. The intelligence community has also determined that North Korea was helping Syria advance in its nascent nuclear program. But the community has been divided over the pace of Syrian nuclear development. In July 2007, Israel relayed satellite images to the United States of a building said to be used for Syria's nuclear weapons program. Officials said the Bush administration was divided over the significance of the Israeli intelligence, which led to an Israel Air Force strike on a Syrian military base near the Iraqi border on Sept. 6.