FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT, 02 Nov 2007

The government has hiked the price of gasoline by 20% amid growing controversy over a broader plan to phase out fuel  subsidies,  which  now  exceed  10%  of  GDP. The gasoline price increase went into effect, with no prior warning,  on  November  1st,  with  the  price  of  a  litre going up to S£36 (US$0.75) from S£30. However, the government  is  still deliberating  whether  to  go ahead with the previously announced plans for much steeper increases  in  prices  for  gasoil  and  other products that account for a much larger proportion of total fuel consumption and which attract much larger subsidies.

Gasoline prices in Syria are in fact relatively high by regional standards—a point made in numerous comments on news websites, noting that that the price of petrol in Gulf Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where many  Syrians  go to find work, is substantially lower. By contrast gasoil/diesel, which accounts for more than 50%  of  Syria's total petroleum products consumption and which is sold domestically at a fraction of the world market  price.  The planned attack on subsidies includes a proposal to increase the price of gasoil by 71% from S£7/litre  to  S£12/litre  from  January  1st.  The price of cooking gas is also supposed to go up to S£250 per canister,  compared  with  S£145  at present. The price of industrial fuel oil was increased in 2004, and would rise  by  a  further  25%  to  S£7,500 per tonne. The government has proposed to compensate some 3.5m families, identified as being in lower income brackets, through providing an annual cash benefit of S£12,000.

Baathist rumblings

As  the  deadline  for  applying  the new fuel price increases approaches, the plans have attracted a welter of criticism in sections of the Syrian press, reflecting unease within the ruling Baath party and, it is presumed, among  well-connected  business  interests  who profit hugely from the current situation owing to the lucrative smuggling  opportunities  that  it affords. Certain members of the government, led by the (non-Baathist) deputy prime  minister  for economic affairs, Abdullah al-Dardari, have argued forcefully in favour of acting promptly to  tackle  the fuel subsidies problem, which is becoming worse as Syria's dependence on imports increases as a result of the decline in its own oil production. Mr Dardari has, as a result, become something of a hate-figure for  critics of the plans to hike fuel prices. The affair is set to become a critical test of the leadership of Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, who may ultimately have to choose between the party hierarchy and his inner political circle on the one hand and his economic reform team on the other.

Refinery hopes

In  the  long term, Mr Dardari has pinned hopes on foreign investment in new refineries in Syria to address the problem. An agreement was signed at the end of October with Venezuelan, Iranian and Malaysian companies for the construction  of  a  refinery  outside  Homs with the capacity to process 140,000 barrels/day of crude, half of which would come from Syrian fields and the remainder from Iran and Venezuela. More than half of its production would  be  gasoil.  A similar deal is set to be signed with Noor Investments of Kuwait to build a refinery near Deir  ez-Zour,  to  process Iraqi crude. Financing these projects, which will each cost at least US$2.5bn, will pose a major challenge, however.

Rice to Lebanon, "No compromises"

SHANNON (AFP)–U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Friday warned against diplomatic moves to solve Lebanon's serious political crisis by compromising with the country's pro-Syrian opposition.

"I think there is a lot of talk right now about compromise," she told journalists on a plane taking her to Ankara for talks with Turkish leaders on Kurdish rebels.
"There are a lot of discussions going on. That is fine," she added before a stopover in Ireland.

"But any candidate for president or any president needs to be committed to Lebanon's sovereignty and independence, needs to be committed to resolutions that Lebanon has signed on to … and needs to be committed to carrying on the tribunal."

Rice was referring to the international UN-backed tribunal that was set up to prosecute those behind the murder of Rafiq Hariri, a five-time prime minister who was killed along with 22 others in a massive Beirut explosion in February 2005.

She did not name names, but her statement appeared to be a veiled reference to a meeting between Michel Aoun, a pro-Syrian former president who is the opposition standard-bearer in November 12 presidential elections, and Hariri's son Saad.

Aoun met Wednesday and Thursday in Paris with Lebanese parliament leader Hariri, the leader of the pro-government bloc, for their first talks since Lebanon's political crisis erupted in November last year.

The French foreign ministry said it was not involved in the talks but stressed that France "supports all efforts aimed at encouraging dialogue between the different parties in Lebanon."

Shadow of the gun looms over Lebanon crisis
By Tom Perry
Nov 2, 2007

BEIRUT (Reuters) – For arms dealer Abu Walid, political crisis in Lebanon means profit. He says he can't keep up with customer demand.

"The market is very prosperous. If there were weapons factories in Lebanon today, they would not be able to meet the demand," he said, adding that the price of a good Kalashnikov — his best selling gun — had trebled to more than $1,000.

Weapons buying by rival political factions is ringing alarm bells for Lebanese who fear a bitter power struggle in their country will turn violent unless it is settled soon.

Demand had been "unusually strong" over the last five months, said Abu Walid, declining to give his full name. "I don't care who's buying. What is important is who pays more."

He said he buys his supplies from Palestinian factions while others smuggle weapons into the country.

In a country already awash with guns, the distribution of more weapons has raised the stakes in efforts to resolve the standoff between the governing coalition backed by the United States and its opponents, who are supported by Syria and Iran.

The rival parties are now trying to agree on a president to replace Emile Lahoud, whose term expires on November 23. But they have yet to make progress towards a deal seen as vital to defusing Lebanon's worst internal crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon last week expressed concern that militias were arming to prepare for a "constitutional void" if there was no agreement.

Faulty Intel Source "Curve Ball" Revealed

60 Minutes has identified the man whose fabricated story of Iraqi biological weapons drove the U.S. argument for invading Iraq. It has also obtained video of "Curve Ball," as he was known in intelligence circles, and discovered he was not only a liar, but also a thief and a poor student instead of the chemical engineering whiz he claimed to be.

The Syria Forum, Created by Camille-Alexandre Otrakji has posted articles addressing the latest topi on Syria's foreign policy:

Which international and regional powers (Turkey, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Untied States, Russia, France) should Syria try to have good relations with. Should Syria be more involved or more hands off in its surrounding region's many conflicts. 

Matthew Vienneau, whose sister disappeared near Hama in March has asked me to post this note he recently sent, asking for any information about his missing sister.

Hello Mr. Landis,

My name is Matthew Vienneau and my sister Nicole disappeared while on a day trip from Hama, Syria back on March 31st. She was staying at the Cairo Hotel and left her belongings in her room – hotel staff have indicated that she was asking about the Beehive Houses and how to get to Qasr Ibn Wardan.

My mother and I have each travelled to Syria and met with officials and visited Hama. My mother met with the Interior Minister, and we both met with the mayor and leaders of Hama. The Syrian police and officials have been very willing to help and volunteers in Syria report back that they are working hard to find Nicole. Unfortunately, we have found no clues.

I have continued to search via the Internet, trying to find leads and reach people who might have met with Nicole during her travels. Our official website is www.findnicolevienneau.com and my personal blog is http://vienneau.livejournal.com/39588.html. Our search has been covered extensively in the Canadian and Syrian press, but has not been mentioned in the United States or elsewhere in the world.

I was hoping that you might be able to offer us some advice on how to best continue our search. We seemed to have reached a dead end and we are becoming desperate for any kind of answers or clues. Many have suggested that the police or military may be involved (possibly an accident or random encounter with a lone soldier), and others state emphatically that Syria knows what has happened but refuses to tell us (possibly due to embarrassment, possibly due to bad relations between Syria and Canada). We have no way of investigating these options, and we suspect (hope?) that they are not true – the officials in Syria seemed very sincere in their efforts and concern.

Hopefully Nicole, or at least some hint of what happened to her, will be found soon so my mother can begin the healing process.

Thank you for your time, and if there’s anything you can think of that might help or be worth investigating on our end, it would be greatly appreciated.

Matthew Vienneau
[email protected]

Lebanon's militant Hezbollah forging new ties
Shiite group recruits from other sects to help build strength
Hugh Macleod, San Fran Chronicle, November 1, 2007 

Ain Al-Hilweh, Lebanon —

Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite militant group, is expanding its military power by recruiting Sunnis, Christians and Druze in preparation for another conflict with Israel, according to sources close to Hezbollah.

In addition to its yearlong political campaign to bring down Lebanon's pro-Western government, Hezbollah has ignored U.N. and Lebanese government calls for disarmament and remains focused on bolstering its military strength by recruiting non-Shiites. The Islamic organization wants to allay fears that it is strictly a sectarian militia, these same sources say.

Former Lebanese Brig. Gen. Amin Hotait, an expert on Hezbollah, says the nonsectarian strategy began after Hezbollah declared a "divine victory" over Israel in a monthlong war in July 2006. Since then, its fighters have increased by several thousand, the analysts say.

"After the July war, the numbers of Shiites joining Hezbollah as fighters doubled, but the group has also expanded by appealing to other sects under the banner of the political opposition," said Hotait. "They are preparing for a future role in conflict against Israel."

In recent months, Hezbollah and its political allies have led a protest to topple the government coalition of Sunnis, Christians and Druze known as March 14. The crisis ensued last year after Prime Minister Fuad Saniora called a Cabinet meeting to discuss disarming Hezbollah. In response, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah accused Saniora of being a traitor and working for the United States and Israel. Last November, all five Shiite ministers and a Christian ally resigned from the government.

"Before the July war, Hezbollah had called for a national unity government," said Amal Saad Ghorayeb, an expert on Hezbollah at the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Center in Beirut. "But after the war, they became much more vocal and hard-line because they saw that there was a clear U.S. policy to utilize March 14 to disarm Hezbollah and weaken Iran and Syria in the process."

Intelligence experts widely believe Hezbollah – defined as a terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department – receives most of its weapons from Iran. The arms are then smuggled across the Syrian border with the approval of Damascus.

Although exact figures are impossible to come by, experts estimate that Hezbollah had several thousand professional fighters and about 10,000 second-rank troops before the war with Israel.

Hotait says Hezbollah has since re-established the Lebanese Brigades for Resisting Occupation, which had been scrapped in 1999 and whose ranks included Shiite and Sunni Muslims, Druze and Christians.

Hezbollah is also courting Sunni religious scholars known as sheikhs to shore up its military support, according to Patrick Haenni, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.

"Hezbollah is in desperate need of the Sunni sheikhs and went to meet as many as they could," said Haenni. "They are eager not to make the resistance against Israel a Shiite cause."

Moreover, Hezbollah is arming and training a Sunni militia group inside the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp near the southern port of Sidon, ostensibly to counter al Qaeda fighters. It is the largest of a dozen Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, with an estimated 75,000 residents.

Sheikh Abu Ayoub, the commander of some 300 Sunni Palestinian fighters of Ansar Allah (Followers of God), acknowledges his group's affiliation with Hezbollah.

"Everything comes from Hezbollah – financial support, weapons and training," said Abu Ayoub, inside the run-down camp. "Palestine is an Islamic issue. Hezbollah are Islamic. We are Islamic."

Ansar Allah members say they will monitor and expel foreign fighters to prevent a repeat of the devastating summer conflict between the Sunni al Qaeda-inspired militants of Fatah Islam – many of whom were Saudi extremists – and the Lebanese army in the northern Nahr al-Bared refugee camp. The three-month-long conflict was the worst internal violence since the end of Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war. The fighting destroyed much of the camp and killed 168 soldiers, more than 200 militants and 47 civilians.

"Hezbollah has an interest in preventing the rise of al Qaeda when you see what has happened in Iraq," said Abu Ayoub.

Hezbollah's media office ignored several requests to comment for this story. However, in an earlier interview, the group's foreign affairs spokesman, Nawaf Mousawi, blamed the rise of Sunni extremism in Lebanon on Washington and the government coalition, which sees such groups as a bulwark against Hezbollah. Washington and Beirut adamantly deny the allegation.

In a March article in the New Yorker magazine, reporter Seymour Hersh quoted a former British intelligence officer saying the Sunni extremist group Fatah Islam was "offered weapons and money by people presenting themselves as representatives of the Lebanese government's interests – presumably to take on Hezbollah."

After the end of the civil war in 1990, Hezbollah became the only militia allowed to retain its weapons to resist Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. In 2000, Israeli troops withdrew after a 22-year occupation and a war of attrition with Hezbollah fighters.

Although the Lebanese government confirmed Hezbollah's right to liberate an Israeli-occupied border area called the Shebaa Farms in 2005, international attention on the militant organization has been mounting since 2004, when the U.S.-French sponsored Security Council resolution 1559 called for disarming all Lebanese militias.

Few observers here dispute that Hezbollah is preparing for another confrontation with Israel after last summer's war ended in a stalemate and U.N. peacekeepers and Lebanese army replaced Hezbollah fighters in the south.

Hezbollah leaders say that they are setting up hidden military zones north of the Litani River, the waterway that marks the boundary of U.N-patrolled territory. Government officials say Hezbollah is also fortifying positions in the Bekaa Valley near the border with Syria.

But these same analysts say Hezbollah is unlikely to provoke another war as it did last July, when a cross-border raid killed two Israeli soldiers and captured two more, who were taken to Lebanon and remain captive.

"Hezbollah knows that in the case of Round 2 with Israel, they will not only lose the support of their Christian allies, but also the support of many Shiites, who know that if they have to flee the south again they will have nowhere to go in Lebanon," said Haenni of the International Crisis Group. "Hezbollah knows they have lost the southern border with Israel and it will be closed to them for a very long time, but that is not because Hezbollah can't make operations in the south through U.N. and Lebanese army lines – those will always be possible."

This article appeared on page A – 11 of the San Francisco Chronicle

Rumsfeld Flees France, Fearing Arrest
Oct. 29, 2007 By IPS News

Former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld fled France today fearing arrest over charges of "ordering and authorizing" torture of detainees at both the American-run Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and the U.S. military's detainment facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, unconfirmed reports coming from Paris suggest.

U.S. embassy officials whisked Rumsfeld away yesterday from a breakfast meeting in Paris organized by the Foreign Policy magazine after human rights groups filed a criminal complaint against the man who spearheaded President George W. Bush's "war on terror" for six years.

Under international law, authorities in France are obliged to open an investigation when a complaint is made while the alleged torturer is on French soil.

According to activists in France, who greeted Rumsfeld, shouting "murderer" and "war criminal" at the breakfast meeting venue, U.S. embassy officials remained tight-lipped about the former defense secretary's whereabouts citing "security reasons".

Anti-torture protesters in France believe that the defense secretary fled over the open border to Germany, where a war crimes case against Rumsfeld was dismissed by a federal court. But activists point out that under the Schengen agreement that ended border checkpoints across a large part of the European Union, French law enforcement agents are allowed to cross the border into Germany in pursuit of a fleeing fugitive.

"Rumsfeld must be feeling how Saddam Hussein felt when U.S. forces were hunting him down," activist Tanguy Richard said. "He may never end up being hanged like his old friend, but he must learn that in the civilized world, war crime doesn't pay."

International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) along with the Center for Constitutional Rights (CCR), the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR), and the French League for Human Rights (LDH) filed the complaint on Thursday after learning that Rumsfeld was scheduled to visit Paris.

Two American planes took part in the bombing raid over Syria on Sept. 6 claims al-jazeera.net. (Ar.) It refers to unnamed sources: one Israeli and one Arab.

Arab paper: 'Extremism,' 'violence' to follow Iraq pullout
Iraq 'Would be taken over by Iran and Syria, which are seeking to dominate' region
Posted: November 1, 2007
WorldNetDaily.com

The editor of a premier pan-Arab daily newspaper is warning with the eventual departure of American forces from Iraq, the vacuum will be filled by Syria and Iran, and "with friends like these, who needs enemies?"

The commentary comes from Tariq Alhomayed, editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, the Arabic-language newspaper that is printed in 12 cities on four continents and also features an English-language website.

The editorial was highlighted by the Middle East Media Research Institute, which monitors media reports throughout the Middle East.

"In an editorial titled '[The] American Withdrawal and the Second Stage,' … Alhomayed warned of what might happen after the U.S. withdraws its forces from Iraq," MEMRI said. "He argued that Iraq would be taken over by Iran and Syria, which are seeking to dominate the Middle East, and that the result would be the spread of extremism and violence throughout the region."

Both Iran and Syria are "getting ready" for the American departure, he said.

"Iran has, in fact, been present in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. As for Syria, it has been one of the disrupters of the Iraqi project however from afar," he said. "Nevertheless, what is new today is Damascus's endeavor to reorganize the Baathist rather than the Sunni elements as is commonly believed, in order to ensure Syrian influence in Iraq."

He said while Syrian President Bashar Assad, "stated that his country has influence over Lebanon; an influence that he described as positive … we all know that this is not true."

The commentary noted Syria wants the Golan Heights without war and wants to win America over "without having to adopt a moderate approach or refrain from interfering in Lebanon or Iraq."

"Damascus, like Iran, is playing the Hamas card, a movement that is affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood…" he continued. "Iran, by imposing fait accompli or reaching an agreement with the United States, wants to dominate the Arab world and to resume exporting the Islamic revolution."

"This is the main problem. America will leave the region and we will find ourselves opening a new chapter that is no better than where we are today. After the devouring of Iraq and Lebanon at the hands of Iran and Syria, the Gulf region will be under the siege of the Islamic revolution and under pressure from Syrian meddling," he said.

"We do not know where this will all end. Therefore, in light of the American exit and the lack of Arab activity, the region will witness its second stage of downfall; however, this time, it will be in the hands of Tehran and Damascus," he said.

In its own editorial, the International Herald Tribune said U.S. voters are becoming increasingly convinced it is time for a troop withdrawal, forcing them then to focus their attention on the "likely consequences" in the region.

"Washington's presence in Iraq will gradually diminish over the next five years, leaving in place a weak, decentralized system of warlords with some foreign supporter," the IHT said. "The central government appears certain to weaken over time, but the proposal of a new al-Qaida haven arising in the Sunni triangle is not the most significant threat that would emerge from a post-U.S. Iraq. Rather, it is the galvanizing effect that a U.S. troop pullout would have on Islamist radicals in the Maghreb, the Palestinian territories, Jordan and beyond."

Lebanon's parliamentary majority leader, Saad Hariri, said he has evidence that a senior Syrian official has been plotting to assassinate him and Lebanon's Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. Hariri was in Cairo and responded to a reporter who asked whether Syrian military intelligence chief Assif Shawkat was behind the alleged plot.

"We have information about this, and it is accurate, " he said. He said Lebanon's security services are following up on intelligence about the alleged assassination plot, which he said also targeted Prime Minister Siniora.

Alex writes:

The secretary general of the youth movement of George Haoui … who was one of the “Lebanese martyrs” supposedly assassinated by Syria (god nows why!) … is now publicly accusing the Saudi fundamentalists of killing the Late Hariri and accusing the Mossad of killing his idol, George Haoui.

Last month, Nasrallah committed for the first time publicly, to a clear position … Syria is innocent.

Both men did not do so in the past … they reached this conclusion lately.

t_desco replies:

Alex,

I think that it is possible that Zarqawi ordered the assassination, based on the link discovered by Nibras Kazimi. Having said that, the testimony by Faisal Akbar is not without problems. I am planning to write about it and the “cell of 13″ (and also about Fatah al-Islam as both are linked to the Dinniyeh group), but I am kind of hoping that Nibras Kazimi will comment on the contradictions between the various testimonies which I find rather confusing. It is regrettable that there is not more discussion about this.

The "confessions" printed in al-Akhbar have been well translated by Nibras Kazimi

BEIRUT: The family of slain former Lebanese Communist Party leader Georges Hawi announced on Wednesday that it had filed a lawsuit against Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency accusing it of plotting his assassination on June 21, 2005.

Speaking during a news conference at the Bristol Hotel, Hawi’s step-son, Raffy Madayan, lashed out at the Lebanese authorities for “overlooking the issue of political assassinations and focusing on the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri solely.”

Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in his latest speech, accused Israel of plotting the string of political assassinations which took place over the past few years; the March 14 Forces, meanwhile, holds Syria responsible.

Sayyed urges authorities to probe Al-Qaeda link to Hariri killing, from Daily Star

"Why are the printed confessions of a 13-member group called Al-Qaeda in Balad al-Sham admitting their involvement in Hariri's killing completely disregarded?" Sayyed asked in a statement released by his lawyer, Akram Azoury.

Sayyed was referring to a series of articles on the confessions published last week by the local daily Al-Akhbar, entitled the "The group of 13 and assassination of Rafik Hariri."

The articles included lengthy excerpts of the alleged confessions and details outlining how the statements were extracted under torture, as well as the names of the members belonging to the Al-Qaeda splinter group.

Local media outlets circulated unconfirmed reports that the excerpts were actually

taken from the notes of a preliminary investigation by the former public prosecutor, Adnan Adoum.   

Israeli Minister: Israel is ready to return Golan for peace

Science, Culture and Sport Minister Raleb Majadele said Friday that Israel is ready to pay the price of peace with Syria, which he described as a withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for peace with the entire Arab world…

“Israel will not be able to normalize relations with Arab nations without paying the price of anything related to the Palestinian issue,” he said…

He reiterated that he doesn’t rule out the possibility that “the fate of the settlements in the West Bank will be the fate of the settlements from the Gaza Strip,” referring to Israel’s 2005 withdrawal of settlements from the coastal territory…

Also don’t miss: Speakers in UN General Assembly Second Committee call on Israel to stop destroying infrastructure, causing environmental damage in occupied Arab lands

Fadlallah slams Bush's pursuit of 'hellish objectives'

Gulf states may drop dollar pegs in unison: Gulf Arab oil producers, torn between rising inflation and exchange rates fixed to a sliding dollar, could consider switching together to a currency basket to buy time for a troubled monetary union project, analysts said…

Syrians take to rugby with fierce pride, By Thanassis Cambanis, Oct, 30, 207 IHT. Thanassis, in this great story, might have mentioned Britain's military attache, Jason Wells, who started the league. (Now based in Dubai.) As well as, Roddey Drummond, the long-time British DCM, who I believe is now serving as Ambassador in Damascus. He was a big devotee of the league.

 "… Annapolis "would be just a `photo op' without the Saudis." Some Administration analysts expect, in the end, the Saudis will come, although they fear their representative will be a lower level official than Foreign Minister, Prince Saud. Still, as one cynical Administration insider said last week, "The time couldn't be better for the Arabs to try to help us work things out. After all what better time than between two wars?"

.

"… US policy towards Lebanon constitutes a glaring exception to the well thought out approaches to the major three Middle East issues. This casual attitude was most recently on display with the visit to Washington earlier this month by Saad Hariri,… On his visit here, Hariri, seen by Washington (and apparently himself) as a future Prime Minister ["He will be Prime Minister," says one State Department official. "Not necessarily a good Prime Minister."] was lavishly praised by the President and other top Administration officials. But in subsequent weeks, it has become apparent that while the Administration is prepared to offer generous vocal support, it is not willing to back up its rhetoric with action. As one veteran diplomat put it last week, in a cynical twist on former Secretary of State Powell's famous line about American responsibility for Iraq after the invasion, "If you break Lebanon, it's broken."

Syria-based Palestinian officials postpone Hamas-led Damascus meeting from Jerusalem Post

Syria-based Palestinian officials announced on Tuesday that a Hamas-led meeting due here in early November would be postponed to coincide with the US-sponsored Mideast peace conference later this year.

The Damascus meeting of Palestinian groups opposed to peace talks with Israel had been envisaged to rival the conference called for by US President George W. Bush in Annapolis, Maryland.

The US-sponsored Mideast conference, due in November or December, is expected to relaunch Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.

Talal Naji, a ranking official with the Syria-based Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, said that a preparatory committee had rescheduled the Damascus gathering, initially planned for November 7-9, to have it "coincide with the Bush conference."

EU politician: No peace without Syria, from Jerusalem Post

Syria will not allow any serious peace agreement to be reached without playing a central role in the negotiations, European Parliament member Jana Hybaskova told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday.

Hybaskova, chairwoman of the Delegation for Relations with Israel and a member of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) who also sits on the Committee on Foreign Affairs and the Committee on Budgets, recently met with Syrian President Bashar Assad. She spent this week leading a delegation of European Parliament members in Israel.

"[Syria] has the vision that there is no peace without Syria," Hybaskova said. The Syrians have an "overexaggerated sense" of their own importance, she said, adding, "They want to put themselves in the center… and that is the key," so if they cannot be part of masterminding the peace, "they want to destroy it." "That is a very dangerous message," she said.

Hybaskova said she had been disappointed by the Syrians' "rigid" response on several issues, including the release of Syrian dissidents from jail, negotiations over the Golan Heights and the strengthening relationship with Russia.

"I am very much concerned with the mounting influence of Russia – not only in Syria, but in the whole Middle East," she said.

Hybaskova said she was particularly worried about Russia's ties with Iran and its actions to dissuade the construction of missile defense systems in Central and Eastern Europe.

"Whenever we are active, Russians come and say, 'No, Iran is not that important. Do not build this defense,'" she said. Israel should use its "special relationship" with Russia to persuade Moscow to change its tune on missile defense and Iran in general, she said, citing the number of Russian immigrants in Israel and the trade between the two countries.

"We do not want Iran to come up with a nuclear program. We realize this is a threat to all of Europe," she said.

October 17, 2007

The President
The White House
Washington, DC 20500

Dear Mr. President:

I write to urge you to consider pursuing direct, unconditional and comprehensive talks with the Government of Iran.

In the last two years, the United States has worked closely with the permanent members of the UN Security Council, Germany, Japan, and other key states as well as the UN Secretary General and the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency to pursue a diplomatic strategy regarding Iran's nuclear program. I have supported your efforts. Maintaining a cohesive and united international front remains one of our most effective levers on Iran…. (read the whole letter.)

From www.tonykaron.com

Fareed Zakaria deserves a medal for breaking with most of the mainstream media pack to slap down, with the requisite rudeness, the hysteria over Iran being manufactured by the neocons, opportunist Israeli politicians and the Bush Administration. Perhaps stung by having participated in a secret Bush Administration policy discussion to help shape the Iraq war policy before the invasion, Zakaria is acting with honor now to prevent another disaster……

Periscope; Syria
A New Intelligence Failure?
By Mark Hosenball
5 November 2007, Newsweek (thanks M.A.)

The Syrian Desert facility that Israel apparently attacked in a shadowy Sept. 6 raid—and that some administration officials believe was a secret nuclear reactor—might be several years old. Israel bombed the complex near the Euphrates River months after alerting the United States to the existence of a suspect Syrian facility, according to intelligence sources. But photographic evidence obtained by NEWSWEEK shows the boxy main building already existed in 2003, and a European intelligence source said the program might have begun years earlier. The source, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information, said fresh intelligence suggests the Syrians actually started a hush-hush program under the regime of late president Hafez Assad, who died in 2000, and that initially, clandestine factions of the government may have kept it secret from Bashar al-Assad, Hafez’s son and successor. If true, it could be a significant intelligence failure by American and other Western spy agencies.

(The CIA declined to comment.)
The facility in the 2003 satellite photo, taken by the commercial remote-sensing company GeoEye, appears identical to the one pictured in satellite images snapped weeks before the Israeli strike, with one notable distinction: the recent photos include what analysts have described as a pumping station along the Euphrates. Nuclear experts say Syria probably put in the pumping station to cool a reactor, which many believe was based on a North Korean design and was years from completion. A post-raid commercial satellite image taken last week showed the site had been flattened by bulldozers—evidence that most experts agree demonstrated Syria’s desire to hide all traces of the facility. Israel has kept quiet about its attack, while Syria denied having a secret nuclear program.

Immediately after the bombing, many nuclear-proliferation experts in the United States and Europe expressed doubt that Syria had the money or the scientific capability for a secret atomic program. They also questioned whether North Korea would be desperate and greedy enough to sell nuclear wares to Syria. The new photos now have skeptics admitting they may have been mistaken.

The Bush administration has maintained a strict gag order on discussion of the Israeli attack. But two weeks after the incident, U.S. “intelligence czar” Mike McConnell began giving highly classified one-on-one briefings about the incident to a handful of congressional leaders. Republicans and Democrats came away with opposing conclusions. According to a former administration official, Republican legislators began agitating for a halt, or at least an interruption, in ongoing U.S. disarmament talks with North Korea. But House Foreign Affairs chairman Tom Lantos told NEWSWEEK that even after the briefing, he remains “fully in favor of pursuing ongoing diplomatic discussions with North Korea.” Lantos said he also favors closer relations with both Pyongyang and Damascus, and that if North Korea disarmament talks succeed, the country should be dropped from a U.S. list of states that sponsor terrorism

Project for Middle East Democracy has a very interesting website with some wonderful content. Their weekly roundup of news is very helpful and can be subscribed to here. Here are some bits from it.  

See the bottom lines for Junblatt in Washington: (Always entertaining.)

Committee Hearings

The Committee on Foreign Affairs (House 10/23): held a markup for several bills, including H.R.2332, the Syria Accountability & Liberation Act, and H.Res.435, expressing concern for Iran's threatening behavior in Latin America.  For POMED's notes, click here.

The Committee on Foreign Affairs (House 10/24): held a hearing entitled "U.S. Policy in the Middle East."  The Honorable Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State, U.S. Department of State testified.  Chairman Tom Lantos (D-CA) made opening remarks.  For POMED's notes, click here.

The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform (House 10/25): held a hearing entitled "The State Department and the Iraq War."  Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice testified.  Chairman Henry A. Waxman (D-CA) made opening remarks.  For POMED's notes, click here.

New Sanctions on Iran: Last week, the US announced new sanctions against Iran that designate the Quds force of the Revolutionary Guard and four state-owned Iranian banks as supporters of terrorism. Pundits are discussing the meaning of the new sanctions. Some argue that the sanctions will only be effective  "as part of a comprehensive strategy to create diplomatic leverage," and that "The United States should be ratcheting up the pressure on Iran, but at the same time it should be maximizing the opportunities for agreement."  Others warn that "If this diplomatic offensive fails, President Bush or his successor is likely to face a choice between accepting Iran's acquisition of the means to build nuclear weapons and ordering military strikes to destroy its facilities." The Iranian foreign ministry has condemned the sanctions as "doomed to failure."  Vice President Dick Cheney said in a speech that Iran would face "serious consequences" if the regime continued on its present course. Meanwhile, the $75 million in U.S. government aid for civil society in Iran continued to gain the support of some and the opposition of others.

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Discussing the Difficulties in Lebanon: The Washington Institute on Near East Policy discussed remarks by Walid Jumblatt, the outgoing Lebanese leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, in which (in the context of discussing Syrian interference with Lebanese politics) he said "I don't want to be a diplomat today – if you could send car bombs to Damascus, then why not?"  Jumblatt also warned that "coup attempts could be carried out by Syria's allies in Lebanon and of Hizbullah's aspiration to change the infrastructure of the country using its weapons."

Also see Rosner's Blog: Jumblatt to Bush: Send car bombs to Damascus