Damascus Summit Attendance was Close to Average Despite US Pressure
Gary Gambill
April 6, 2008
For Syria Comment

After reading report after report in the Western media proclaiming that the attendance of only 11 Arab heads of state was a "rare" snub by Arab states (e.g. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/31/opinion/edarab.php), I killed some time this morning on Lexis Nexis looking up the numbers for past summits, and the results were rather surprising:

I begin with the year 2001 (Amman), as this was the first year that the Arab League decided to hold annual spring summits.

2008 Damascus . . . 11
2007 Riyadh . . . 17
2006 Khartoum . . . 12
2005 Algiers . . .  13
2004 Tunis . . . 14
2003 Sharm al-Sheikh . . . 10
2002 Beirut . . . 10
2001 Amman 15

Average . . . 12.75

In light of the heavy pressure that Washington was putting on Arab leaders to boycott the summit (the only time this has ever happened to my knowledge), the fact that the Damascus summit still hit close to par is astonishing. The fact that two preceding summits – one of them in Egypt, the largest Arab state – only got 10 is also striking.

It's probably worth mentioning that 2001 and 2007 were exceptional years, coming in the aftermath of the Al-Aqsa Intifada and the Israel-Hezbollah war, respectively (both of which made it rather unseemly for Arab leaders not to show up).

Also, there is no Lebanese head of state right now.  Given that Lahoud attended most of the previous summits, the fact that there is a vacant Lebanese presidency now means that Syria's "score" relative to the others would have been docked a full point irrespective of the diplomatic climate . . .  So the *real* score is arguably even closer to average.

Reading through the news archives, it appears that Arab heads of state habitually stay away from these things for the most trivial of reasons (e.g. Abdullah because Qaddafi's there).  If Arab displeasure with Syria was all that it's hyped to be, one would think Washington could have convinced the vast majority to stay away. Cheney's arm-twisting tour of the region the week before the summit may have kept Iraq and Bahrain away.

US sources were not precise on the number of heads of state that attended. The LA Times wrote that 12 attended the Damascus summit. The NY Times' Robert Worth got it right at 11.

Sources:

"Arab leaders leave Jordan at end of two-day summit," Agence France Presse, 28 March 2001.  "US acknowledges Arab summit in chaos, hopes slim for peace consensus," Agence France Presse, 27 March 2002.  "Arab League Adjourns in Angry Discord," The Los Angeles Times, 2 March 2003. "Arab League Summit Opens in Tunis," Voice of America News, 22 May 2004. "Arabs avoid summit controversy, renew Israel peace offer," Agence France Presse, 23 March 2005.  "Arab leaders adjourn annual summit with little action taken," Associated Press, 29 March 2006.  "Saudi Arabia steps up diplomatic efforts on Mideast front," Xinhua, 29 March 2007. "Despite Infighting, Meeting of Arab Leaders Gets Under Way in Damascus" The New York Times, March 30, 2008.

Addendum by Landis

Ibrahim Hamidi was asked for clarification about the heads of state who came. He sent this:

The final answer is 11.

The countries whose Heads of State came were: Syria, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Mauritania, Algeria, Tunisia, Sudan, Kozzor
al kamar, Palestine, Libya,

Heads of State who never attend Arab summits: Oman, Morocco

Heads of State who declined to attend: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain.

Boycott: Lebanon.

Sami Moubayed reminded me that Syria hosted an Arab Summit previously in the year 1948. He writes:

"It was held in Daraa, with Shukri Bey al-Quwatli President of Syria, Bshara al-Khury President of Lebanon, Riad Solh PM of Lebanon, King Abdullah of Jordan, Prime Minister Samir Pasha Rifai of Jordan, Prince Abdul-Illah of Iraq, Abdul-Rahman Azzam Pasha of the Arab League, and of course, Prime Minister Jamil Mardam Bey. The Mufti, Amin al-Huseini, represented the Palestinians!

It should be noted that the Arab League official site does not consider the 1948 Daraa meeting a proper summit.

By Ford Prefect,

BASMA (Battling to Smile Again) is a Syrian, non-governmental and non-profit organization staffed by thousands of volunteers dedicated to helping young Syrian children fight cancer.

Syrians in North America will come together for an annual event on the 19th of April to raise money for BASMA.  The outpouring of support from Syrians and Lebanese from both the US and Canada has already exceeded all expectations and demonstrates our ability to unite for a worthy cause.

 But, while it is expected of Muslim and Christian Syrians to come together to raise money for the homeland, it will come as a surprise that the Syrian Sephardic Jewish community of Brooklyn has organized a parallel event, taking place today, the 6th of April.

There is a strong and proud Jewish community in Brooklyn, New York composed of Sephardic Jews – Jews of Arabic and Persian background with many of Syrian origin.  The Syrian Sephardic Jews are proud of their Syrian heritage and if one is to visit them in their homes, it will be impossible not to notice the overwhelming Syrian artifacts and memorabilia they enjoy and collect.

So while the Sephardic National Alliance wanted to attend the Syrian fundraiser on the 19th of April in order to help children, that date posed a problem for them. It is Passover Weekend. So the Sephardic National Alliance organized their own fund raising event in support of Syrian children with cancer. 

As I am typing these words on April 6th, the Sephardic National Alliance is gathering in Brooklyn. Imad Moutapha, the Syrian Ambassador to the US, is attending. I was given a flier advertising the event by one of my dear Jewish friends in Washington, DC. 

We Syrians, whether living abroad or in Syria, rarely hear positive stories such as this.  Most often we are compelled to find nourishment in the unsettling news of violence and animosity between Israelis and Arabs.

But, as this event demonstrates, Jews are peace loving and heritage-proud just as other Syrians. This event should help us to dispel the unfortunate stereotypes of Jews that are widespread among Syrians. It also reminds us how unfortunate Syria is that its Jewish community has departed in such unhappy and often painful circumstances.

So bravo and shalom Sephardic National Alliance; you have set a great example for us to follow.

Suleiman, Lebanese Army chief, says he wants to resign from his post in August
Insists Lebanese are 'fed up' with political impasse, Daily Star

The commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, General Michel Suleiman, announced in remarks published Thursday that he would leave his post in August and warned feuding political factions that he would bow out of the presidential race if his election as a compromise candidate is not secured by then.

In the interview Thursday in As-Safir daily, which is close to the opposition, Suleiman said he had had enough of the continued "polarization" between the opposing sides and that he felt his dignity was hurt over the ongoing bickering.

"Every time we take one step forward we find ourselves facing another series of steps that need to be taken before electing a president," he said.

"This leaves us with a mountain of contradictory conditions that must be met if a new president is to be elected. "If one side nominates me the other side protests. If one country supports my candidacy another opposes it," he added.

Suleiman said he would not wait until the last day of his military service on November 21 to retire. Instead, he has decided he would quit as army chief on August 21, three months before retirement, by taking accumulated vacation days, As-Safir said.

The paper described the decision as "a highly explosive political bomb" that could also scuttle an Arab foreign ministers plan adopted in Egypt in January to solve the Lebanese crisis. The plan calls for the election of Suleiman as a consensus president, formation of a national unity government and the adoption of a new electoral law. Suleiman said he would "hold all [factions] responsible and make them understand that the continuation of the current situation will lead to a daily exhaustion of the army and also the exhaustion of the Lebanese who are fed up with politics and politicians."

Israel, U.S. plan to release details on Syria attack Haaretz
By Barak Ravid and Amos Harel

American officials may reveal details of the strike later this month during congressional hearings. Even though the defense establishment in Israel is opposed to any publication of details of the attack, the Prime Minister's Bureau and U.S. President George W. Bush's administration are of the opinion that it is now possible to reveal details because there is little chance of a conflagration as a result of a Syrian decision to avenge the attack.

Details of the attack are likely to be revealed by senior Bush administration officials during hearings before Congress. …

According to the American assessments, the revelations about the attack will also bolster its hand in negotiations with North Korea on dismantling its nuclear arms. …

In political circles it is now commonly accepted that the release of details of the attack may help bolster the public image of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert…..

Congressmen have included in the bill on the intelligence budget that American intelligence agencies will not be given large portions of their budget unless they reveal in full the details of the strike in Syria and the nuclear cooperation between Pyongyang and Damascus.

This has led U.S. and Israeli officials to conclude that American officials will release details of the strike during the hearings.

Talks between the U.S. and North Korea are schedule to resume tomorrow in Singapore. One of the American conditions for lifting the sanctions on Pyongyang is for it to expose its nuclear collaboration with other countries, which North Korea maintains does not exist….

Interesting article on Iranian bloggers in the NYTimes. Much the same holds true for Syria

….“Arguing about stuff, arguing about public affairs, is taking root in the blogosphere on the conservative side, on the reformist side, all over,” said John Kelly, the founder of Morningside Analytics, a New York company that took part in the study and created the software that helped researchers group blogs together by subject and social networks.

“We don’t know if the government is not trying or not able to block as much as we thought,” …. Bloggers are not permitted to criticize the Islamic system itself, Ms. Kar said, but they are far freer than writers for newspapers or other news media.

“These Web logs are very effective,” she said. “They create conversation. Not just about elections or democracy, but about cinema, theater, arts, literature. These fields are very important for changing that society.”

Here is the Harvard Study, on which the article is based.

Rosen: U.S. occupation in Middle East is ‘imperialist.’»

In Senate hearing on Wednesday about the future of Iraq, Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) asked Nir Rosenof the NYU Center on Law and Security what advice he would have for theU.S. going forward in Iraq, given Rosen’s extensive first-handexperience in the country. Rosen declined to respond, saying he felt“uncomfortable” giving advice to an “imperialist power”:

BIDEN: Based on what you’ve said, there’s really no hope— we really should get the hell out of there right now. I mean, there’snothing to do. Nothing.
ROSEN: As a journalist, I’m uncomfortable advising an imperialist power about how to be a more efficient imperialist power. And I don’t think that we’re there for the interest of the Iraqi people. I don’t think that’s ever been a motivation. […]
BIDEN: [If we withdraw], the good news is we wouldn’t be imperialists in Iraq, from your perspective.
ROSEN: Only elsewhere in the region. (laughter). … There’s no positive scenario in Iraq these days. Not every situation has a solution.

Watch it: Nir Rosen, www.nirrosen.com
Fellow at New York University's Center on Law and Security

Christian Priest Killed at Baghdad Home
By STEPHEN FARRELL in NYTimes

BAGHDAD — A Christian priest was shot dead outside his home in Baghdad on Saturday by attackers who used a pistol with a silencer, witnesses said. His wife, they said, who stood near him, did not realize he had been shot until well after he had fallen.

The priest, Faiz Abdel, who was known as Father Youssef, was the second senior Syrian Orthodox priest to be killed this year. And since the 2003 invasion, church officials say, about 40 percent of the denomination, the country’s second-largest Christian group, have fled their homes.

“I had to move out of my house in Dora a year and a half ago because I received two letters threatening to kill my son,” said Abu Noor, 59. “I paid them $900, and nothing happened.”

“All educated people are targeted,” he said. “It is the fault of the Americans.

“When they discharged the army, everything was lost,” he continued, referring to the decision by the American occupation authority to dismiss the entire Iraqi Army in 2003. “These people had no work and no money to live, so of course they will go into gangs. And a weak government with no police detectives, how can they manage?”

The invasion had caused only harm for Iraq’s Christians, he said.

“I heartily believe that we were living better under the old regime. No one could threaten the Christians then.”

Father Youssef’s murder follows the death of Archbishop Paulos Faraj Rahho, the leader of the Chaldean Catholic Church in Mosul,

Obama Adviser Calls for 60,000-80,000 U.S. Troops To Stay in Iraq Through 2010

By ELI LAKE
Staff Reporter of the Sun
April 4, 2008

WASHINGTON — A key adviser to Senator Obama's campaign is recommending in a confidential paper that America keep between 60,000 and 80,000 troops in Iraq as of late 2010, a plan at odds with the public pledge of the Illinois senator to withdraw combat forces from Iraq within 16 months of taking office.

The paper, obtained by The New York Sun, was written by Colin Kahl for the center-left Center for a New American Security. In "Stay on Success: A Policy of Conditional Engagement," Mr. Kahl writes that through negotiations with the Iraqi government "the U.S. should aim to transition to a sustainable over-watch posture (of perhaps 60,000–80,000 forces) by the end of 2010 (although the specific timelines should be the byproduct of negotiations and conditions on the ground)."

Mr. Kahl is the day-to-day coordinator of the Obama campaign's working group on Iraq. A shorter and less detailed version of this paper appeared on the center's Web site as a policy brief.

Both Mr. Kahl and a senior Obama campaign adviser reached yesterday said the paper does not represent the campaign's Iraq position. Nonetheless, the paper could provide clues as to the ultimate size of the residual American force the candidate has said would remain in Iraq after the withdrawal of combat brigades. The campaign has not publicly discussed the size of such a force in the past.

Al-Hayat (London): Messages of calm between Israel and Syria; warnings against repercussions of attacks

– Israel and Syria exchanged messages of calm, accompanied by mutual warnings against launching an attack, following reports of preparations by both sides for an imminent war. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem insisted that peace was his country's strategic choice but "we should be awake to any Israeli aggression." Israel's army officials said it was not in anyone's interests to have a military confrontation, but warned that "our response will be harsh and painful" if attacked.

Al-Qabas (Kuwait): Zawahiri: Al-Qaida will fight Israel after victory in Iraq

– Al-Qaida's second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri said in response to questions on an Islamic Web site that Osama bin Laden was in good health and said rumors saying otherwise were lies. He condemned the United Nations and vowed to "attack the Jews inside and outside Israel" after achieving "victory in Iraq."

Al-Arab al-Yawm (Jordan): Kuwaiti mediation to solve Syrian-Saudi crisis

– Kuwaiti reports said the emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, will visit Riyadh on Saturday to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Syria to ease tensions over the Lebanese crisis. Sources said the emir, who attended the Arab summit boycotted by the Saudi monarch, will deliver to King Abdullah a Syrian message that is hoped would defuse tensions between them.

The NY Review of Books has an interesting article on the memoir of conversations with a leading reformist Chinese official who was placed under house arrest following the Tienman Square protests. His remarks about free market reforms without major political liberalization are interesting for Syria. Unfortunately, the artile is onlyl available by subscription.

Perry Link, He Would Have Changed China
Zhao Ziyang: Ruanjinzhong de tanhua (Captive Conversations) by Zong Fengming

Syrian Economy in Downturn
by Ehsani 2
April 1, 2008 for Syria Comment

According to a number of Syrian industrialists that I have spoken to lately, business conditions seem to have deteriorated markedly as of late. 

Set below are some of the explanations that were offered to explain the reasons why:

1-      Iraqi authorities have made it very difficult for Syrian trucks to transport goods from Syria and back.

2-      Trade with Lebanon and Jordan has suffered a setback as well

3-      Increased import and other duties on Syrian importers.

4-      General lack of liquidity in the economy.

5-      The recent slide in the dollar and its impact on trade.

The domestic purchasing power was never adequate to satisfy the industrial production capacity. Syrian industrialists have long relied on increasing demand from neighboring countries.  Clearly, the drop in demand from Iraq has had a noticeable negative impact on sales of various Syrian producers.  Due to the tightening fiscal situation, the finance ministry has recently increased the fees on the import of raw materials as well as finished imported goods. Such fees now make up almost 30% of the total value of such imports. Given that Syrian merchants look to turn their capital close to three times per annum, this would mean that after one year’s worth of business, fees will equal total capital committed.  Such fees would require a substantial profit margin to make up for the taxes levied.  The slide in the value of the US dollar and the recent gyrations in the value of the Euro have added to the risks involved with such imports.  Passing on the higher costs to the already stretched domestic consumers has become a real challenge. The response of the business community has been to wait and see in the hope that conditions would improve. Nevertheless, this morning, two large manufacturers reported that they have no choice but to lay off a number of their employees. Having seen production lower for a number of months now, they have finally decided to reduce their payroll count.

On another note, the launch of the Syria stock market is now officially postponed for another eight months.  Supposedly, it is due to the lack of finding a supplier of the software system that would operate the exchange. This of course was the same excuse offered a few months ago when another delay was made official. Moreover, the official in charge of the project (Mr. Imadi) has made it clear that when the market does officially start it will be for “investors” and not “speculators”. Those who buy shares on day one will not be able to sell on the same day they were purchased. Somehow, we are led to believe that if you sell 24 hours later, then you must be an “investor” and not just a “speculator”. This is total nonsense.  Today, people are only allowed to sell 24 hours after they purchase. What is to stop the authorities in charge from changing the allowed time to sell for an extra week or month if sellers seem to overwhelm the buyers at the time? This initiative has been a disaster from day one. One is hard pressed to find anything optimistic to write about on this subject matter.

The average Syrian citizen is feeling the strains of rising prices and the slow lifting of subsidies. The Prime Minister has hinted a new wave of wage increases that would add close to SYP 20 billion to the budget deficit. Fuel prices (Mazot) have raised the cost of a liter of that key commodity to SYP 50 per liter. The subsidy program dictates that it is sold to the public in the range of SYP 7. This will cost the Syrian treasury SYP 1.2 billion a day. The government seems to have decided to subsidize only 1000 liters a year to each family (supposedly 82% of the family’s consume this much per annum).  This will be impractical if not imposible to implement. The general rise in the cost of raw materials and inflation will supposedly be met with “an iron hand against anyone who dares play with the public’s economic well being”. 

Were the government to succeed in raising the salaries of the state employees, private sector employees will not be as lucky. The high national unemployment rate will continue place downward pressure on private wages as unemployed continue to underbid the wages of the employed.

In sum, the recent performance of the Syrian economy and the manufacturing sector in particular has suffered a clear deterioration. The Government is also under tremendous pressure to contain the recent hike in prices. The subsidy program will continue to put tremendous strain on the government’s ability to meet its obligations. While most observers are happy to see Emaar ‘s latest dazzling commercial real estate brochures, it is important to highlight the fact that underneath all this, the economy’s future outlook does not look so bright.

Having gone through a series of ups and downs over the past decade and a half, Syrian-Iraqi relations are experiencing a definite upturn of late.

In the past few years, the heaviest traffic along Syria's border with Iraq has been a human one, with more than 1.5m Iraqis seeking sanctuary over the border. However, that seems set to change, with ties between Damascus and Baghdad thawing and trade set to soar.

On March 16, Amer Hosni Lutfi, Syria's minister of economy, met with Fawzi Francois Hariri, the Iraqi minister of industry and minerals, to discuss the need to increase trade links between the two countries. Apart from agreeing to promote joint investments in the textile and agriculture sectors, the talks focused on the possibility for opening the Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartus for both Iraqi imports and as an export outlet.

Evidence of Syria's link to Iraq is the oil pipeline running from the Kirkuk fields in the north of Iraq to the Syrian port of Banias on the Mediterranean. The pipeline was put out of action in the early days of the 2003 US-led invasion and none of the bomb or corrosion damage it suffered has been repaired since.

However, on March 26, Russian energy firm Stroytransgaz announced it had signed a deal with Iraq to reactivate the pipeline, which has the capacity to carry 300,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The pipeline would do more than give Iraq another export option for its oil. If restored to full operational capacity, analysts predict transshipments would earn Syria between $1bn and $1.5bn in transit fees annually.

In mid December, Syrian Oil Minister Sufian Allaw said after a meeting with Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Ahmad Salih that the section of the pipeline running through his country had been upgraded and was ready to receive shipments, though he acknowledged that repairs to the Iraqi section could take up to two years.

The same month, Syria announced it had completed the first stage of a free trade zone covering 2.5m square metres at al-Ya'robya on its border with Iraq. According to Ahmed Abdulaziz, head of Syria's Free-Trade Zones Authority, the new facility was part of efforts to increase trade exchanges between the two neighbours.

Another development that will have a major impact on the Syrian economy in the future is Iraq's plan to open up a large natural gas field close to their joint border. In mid-March, the Iraqi oil ministry called for tenders to develop the Akkas gas field in the province of Anbar. Once operational, it is intended that some of the field's output be exported directly to Syria for domestic use, with the remainder possibly being shipped to Europe or Turkey, with Syria again a likely route for transshipment.

Another factor that may further improve Syria's trade relations with Iraq was the visit to Baghdad by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in early March. While in Baghdad, Ahmadinejad proposed to assist with the rehabilitation of the run-down Iraqi rail network, and in particular the establishing of a direct rail link connecting Iran, Iraq and Syria.

If undertaken, the project would allow the rapid movement of Syrian exports to Iran, as well as speed up the flow of imports by avoiding the circuitous route presently used through Turkey.

However, Syria's plans to become a major transit route for Iraqi exports could run into difficulties, not least of which are the ramping up of sanctions and restrictions from Washington.

In early March, the US included Syria on its Port Security Advisory List, meaning that any vessels that include a Syrian port among its last five points of docking could be subject to additional security measures by the US Coast Guard when traveling to or arriving in an American port.

"The latest move to put pressure on Syria was prompted by concerns over links between Syria and international terrorist organisations," US State Department deputy spokesman Tom Casey was reported as saying on March 7.

While not preventing shipping from using Syrian ports, the decision could serve to discourage some maritime lines from operating through Syria due to the delays the security measures could impose.

However, to date, US-imposed sanctions have proved to be more of a nuisance than a real impediment to the Syrian economy. With Syria's exports to Iraq having broken through the $1bn mark in 2006, and believed to have performed even better in 2007, Damascus sees its neighbour as a willing customer and, in time to come, a significant trade partner.

On the Israeli economy:

"The main basis for our buy stance on all of the four banks over here that we cover is because the domestic economy is still booming — fixed investment is growing, household investment is growing, and things actually on the ground here are not suffering. That said there's a big link between the Israel and U.S. economy so we have to be careful on a slowdown in the second half of the year. So far there are no real signs of a slowdown.''

Syria risks more isolation over Lebanon
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis
Tue 1 Apr 2008

DAMASCUS, April 1 (Reuters) – Syria faces more isolation unless it helps resolve Lebanon's political crisis blamed on Damascus by Arab and Western states despite its conciliatory stance at the Arab summit it hosted last week.

Diplomats and commentators said Syria's diplomatic offensive will do little to rescue it from dire political and economic straits set to worsen unless Damascus pushes its Lebanese allies to abandon their quest for greater power in Beirut.

"Tough times are ahead for Syria," Joshua Landis, a Syria specialist at the University of Oklahoma, told Reuters.

"Syria thinks it can persevere another year and then it will be a new day. But the U.S. Treasury is laying landmines that Syria will find it difficult to negotiate," he added.

The March 29-30 meeting in Damascus, which was boycotted by Beirut's Western-backed government and skipped by three key Arab leaders — Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, made no progress towards ending the crisis which has poisoned Arab ties.

The conflict in Lebanon pits the Beirut government close to Saudi Arabia and the United States against an opposition dominated by the Shi'ite Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran.

The government has been paralysed by the crisis and Lebanon has been without a president since November 2007. The main point of dispute is the opposition demand for effective veto power in cabinet. The ruling coalition has rejected the demand.

Syria pledged at the summit to cooperate on ending the crisis but made it clear that it will not push its allies in Lebanon to allow the election of a new president unless their demands are met.

Landis said Syria could find it tougher to play for time as Washington already expanded sanctions on Damascus and Arab states siding with Lebanon's government showed no willingness to welcome Syria back to what they regard as the Arab mainstream.

Syrian officials admit privately they are in a hunkering-down mood. They expect no imminent solution in Lebanon and more U.S. sanctions, which were first imposed in 2004.

France is also pushing for European Union pressure on Syria after talks between Paris and Damascus late last year failed to end the stalemate in Lebanon, diplomats said.

MORE EU PRESSURE

EU foreign ministers met in Slovenia a day before the Arab summit to discuss Syria. An EU statement said the ministers agreed to improve coordination on Syria and not "reward a lack of cooperation" from Damascus.

With parliamentary elections in Lebanon scheduled for 2009, Syria could be calculating that its allies, who are now in the minority, will emerge with more seats than their opponents, diplomats say.

"The EU is struggling to take a unified stand against Syria and the stalemate in Lebanon might not be that bad for everyone, but can Syria afford more pressure with its economy already reeling?" one diplomat said.

Although Syria is drawing limited Gulf investment, its budget deficit almost doubled last year and falling oil production means that revenue from crude exports is no longer enough to cover fuel import costs.

New U.S. economic sanctions imposed on Syria in February included freezing the assets of Syrian businessman Rami Makhlouf for alleged corruption and links to President Bashar al-Assad.

The United States also deployed warships off Lebanon's coast to show impatience with Damascus and its allies.

Ties between Syria and Lebanon's governing coalition soured after the killing of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri in 2005. An international investigation team has also implicated Syrian officials in the assassination, one of the reasons for the crisis in Lebanon. Syria denies involvement.

Syrian political commentator Ayman Abdelnour said Syria has realised it could not afford to continue to alienate the West and regional powers such as Saudi Arabia at the same time.

"The other option of keeping up the confrontational stance was obviously a loser," Abdelnour said. (Editing by Samia Nakhoul)

(Comment by Landis) The following two articles about how the US Treasury Department is taking over foreign policy from the State Department on Iran and Syria is very telling. It is not clear where this all leads, but as John McGlynn insists, it is a new form of warfare that can have important repercussions. Syria has resisted opening up to foreign influence for decades for fear of foreign "conspiracies." Today, Syria must open up to foreign banking and investment in order to find a new engine for its economy now that the benefits of socialism, Cold War receipts, and the export of oil can no longer sustain the state.

Syria will find it very difficult to transition to a free market without making concessions to the US and EU on its foreign policy. The Bush administration is busy planting as many landmines for the fragile economy as it can.

The day the US declared war on Iran (Thanks to Enlightened)
By John McGlynn

March 20 is destined to be another day of infamy. On this date this year, the US officially declared war on Iran. But it's not going to be the kind of war many have been expecting…. (Continued)

U.S. Asks Swiss for Copy of Iranian Gas Contract
2008-03-31 11:53 (New York)
By Marc Wolfensberger

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. has asked the Swiss authorities to provide a copy of a 25-year gas import contract signed this month between Iran and a Swiss power company to see if it breaches U.S. sanctions.

"The U.S. government has made an official request to the Swiss government for a copy of the contract, which it didn't receive,'' the U.S. embassy to Switzerland said in remarks posted on March 28 on its Web site. Lars Knuchel, a spokesman for the Swiss Foreign Ministry, declined to comment on the U.S. request when contacted in the capital Bern today.

The contract, valued as high as 27 billion euros ($42.7 billion), was signed on March 17 between Elektrizitaets-Gesellschaft Laufenburg AG and state-owned National Iranian Gas Export Co. The U.S-Iran Sanctions Act permits penalties on foreign companies investing more than $20 million a year in Iran's energy industry. No company has ever been punished.

The U.S. said after the contract was signed that it sends “precisely the wrong message at a time when Iran continues to defy United Nations Security Council resolutions'' over its nuclear program. The U.S. cut diplomatic relations in 1979.

The Swiss authorities attended the signing but are not part of the deal, which envisages the import of 5.5 billion cubic meters of gas a year.

The World Jewish Congress today criticized Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey's decision to attend the signing ceremony in Tehran. In 2005, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel should be “wiped off the map'' and that Europe, the U.S. and Canada should use their own land for a Jewish state.

"Calmy-Rey has sold out her government's international credibility in return for 5.5 billion cubic meters of Iranian natural gas and perhaps for some new friends in the radical Muslim world — definitely not a good investment,'' Ronald Lauder, congress president, wrote in an opinion piece on the organization's Web site.

Lauder called the Swiss foreign minister's visit a “propagandistic triumph for the mullahs.''

Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey has defended the Swiss move, pointing out that the natural gas accord breached neither UN nor US sanctions, which forbid any investment in Iran's oil and gas sector worth more than $20 million (SFr20 million). Switzerland represents Washington's interests in Iran and Tehran's interests in the US.

U.S. names N. Korean nuke experts allegedly helping Syria

A high-level diplomatic source on Monday said that the U.S. obtained the list of officials including nuclear engineers, who were involved in the supply of nuclear technology to Syria, through various intelligence networks. This persuaded the U.S. that the North Korea-Syrian nuclear connection did exist.

The smart way out of a foolish war
By Zbigniew Brzezinski, Washington Post, March 30, 2008

Both Democratic presidential candidates agree that the United States should end its combat mission in Iraq within 12 to 16 months of their possible inauguration. The Republican candidate has spoken of continuing the war, even for a hundred years, until “victory.” The core issue of this campaign is thus a basic disagreement over the merits of the war and the benefits and costs of continuing it.

The case for U.S. disengagement from combat is compelling in its own right. But it must be matched by a comprehensive political and diplomatic effort to mitigate the destabilizing regional consequences of a war that the outgoing Bush administration started deliberately, justified demagogically and waged badly. (I write, of course, as a Democrat; while I prefer Sen. Barack Obama, I speak here for myself.)

The contrast between the Democratic argument for ending the war and the Republican argument for continuing is sharp and dramatic. The case for terminating the war is based on its prohibitive and tangible costs, while the case for “staying the course” draws heavily on shadowy fears of the unknown and relies on worst-case scenarios. President Bush’s and Sen. John McCain’s forecasts of regional catastrophe are quite reminiscent of the predictions of “falling dominoes” that were used to justify continued U.S. involvement in Vietnam. Neither has provided any real evidence that ending the war would mean disaster, but their fear-mongering makes prolonging it easier.

[http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/969953.html]

"….The task of dealing with the Middle East's three major crises has thus been returned to individual states or small groups of countries. The Israeli-Palestinian crisis will be handed back to Egypt and Saudi Arabia; the Lebanon crisis will be dealt with by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran; and the internal Palestinian conflict will continue to be left to sporadic initiatives such as that of Yemen and Egyptian mediation. Syria might ultimately dive into this latter conflict as well….

As for Syria, it seems that its "punishment" by other Arab leaders made it clear even to them that if they wish to thwart Iran's influence in the Arab Middle East, they must hasten to rescue Damascus from that very isolation in which they seek to imprison it. Their public display of anger might prove to be a boomerang that, should Syria choose to flex a few additional muscles, will make it even harder for the Arab states to resolve the Lebanon crisis and the Palestinian conflict."

What big picture?

By Amr Hamzawy

Al-Ahram Weekly, Issue No. 890, March 27 -April 2, 2008

The common idea that every regional contest is succinctly played out in Lebanon is false, writes Amr Hamzawy* "Is it safe to go to Lebanon in the next few days?" an American colleague at the Carnegie Endowment asked me. I didn't know what to tell him. For one thing, I'm not a specialist in Lebanese affairs. Also, I hate to speculate on a situation that remains, in my view, too fluid. Still, as I started to pay more attention to Lebanon, going over dozens of reports and commentary, I formulated some thoughts on the matter: First, some Arab commentators have developed a maddening tendency to connect everything that happens in the region with developments in Lebanon and call it the "big picture". They rehash the Iranian-US crisis, proposed UN sanctions on Iran, and the Israeli offensive in Gaza, throw in a few words about the failure of dialogue among the Lebanese and the frustrated efforts of the Arab League in narrowing the differences, then tie all of the above with heightened Saudi-Syrian tensions, the assassination of Imad Mughniyah, and the deployment of USS Cole. The result is not a "big picture", but a bundle of muddled up interpretations. Second, I know how tempting it is to explain everything that happens in Lebanon by way of the US-Iranian standoff. But we must not downplay the autonomous inclinations of the Lebanese opposition and majority. And we cannot discount the independent thinking of such countries as Saudi Arabia and Syria. The picture one gets from reading current commentaries suggests that everyone is somewhat waiting for inspiration from Washington or Tehran. Granted, there is coordination between the US, the Lebanese majority and Saudi Arabia over Lebanon. But one cannot assume that everything is happening just because the Americans want it so, or that Washington can dictate a specific course of action on its allies. Actually, regional players have their own agendas and are willing to pursue an independent course of action if need be. The Lebanese majority, also known as the 14 March movement, is mainly interested in having US backing against Syria. And Saudi Arabia has concerns in Lebanon and the region that do not exactly tally with those of the Americans. The same thing goes for the Iranian-Syrian-Hizbullah connection. Iran has benefited much from its relations with Damascus. The latter helped Tehran emerge from its regional isolation in the 1980s and allowed it to develop ideological, military, and organisational links with Hizbullah. The Syrians, however, have their own agenda both in the Gulf and Lebanon. Hizbullah, for its part, relies a lot on Tehran and Damascus, but its involvement in local politics affords it a considerable degree of independence. Hizbullah emerged from its confrontation with Israel as a sovereign institution within a weak state. The situation in Lebanon is therefore one in which alliances are formed without any of the players sacrificing totally their independence. Third, the excessive focus by analysts on the US-Iranian conflict is perhaps due to their failure to see the constraints of both Washington and Tehran. It was the adventurism of the Bush administration that prompted it to rely heavily on military force to advance its Middle East agenda, but that approach has backfired. Now Washington is not in a position to control the course of events in the region. More often than not, Washington reacts to Iranian policies rather than takes the initiative. Furthermore, US Arab allies are thinking twice before listening to the Americans. In short, the US may have immense military presence in the Middle East, but not enough leverage to impose the future course of action in Iraq, the Gulf, Lebanon and Palestine. Tehran has benefited from Bush's adventurism and it is now hoping to forge a network of alliances with Arab partners that would boost its stature. But let's not forget that Iran is almost as internationally isolated as it was in 1979. Iran's nuclear programme is causing much concern abroad, and not just to the Americans. And it is likely that the new US administration (certainly if McCain comes to office) would try to stop Iran in its tracks. Also, many of Iran's neighbours have their own reasons to keep it at arm's length. What we have in the Middle East is not a struggle between two invincible powers. It is rather a scene in which a troubled superpower and a hobbled regional power try to find their bearings in passageways cluttered with various Arab and non-Arab agendas.

Iran Incites Cold War With U.S. in Lebanon Roiled by Hezbollah
2008-03-31 20:13 (New York)
By Janine Zacharia

April 1 (Bloomberg) — When David Welch, the U.S. State Department's top Middle East envoy, wakes each morning, he asks himself, “Is everything OK over there?''

“Over there'' is Lebanon, caught in a political stalemate that is putting American officials and much of the Arab world on edge. During six months of paralysis in electing a Lebanese president, Iranian and Syrian support for the Shiite Muslim party, Hezbollah, has flourished while the U.S. has tried to keep its Sunni ally, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, from being ousted.

In this contest is the danger that Lebanon may turn into a full-fledged battleground in the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which is allied with Syria to derail Lebanon's fragile democracy…..

We will need to find out who belongs to this "criminal Network," but this declaration deals a blow to the Cheney team that was convinced the word "Syria" would appear in the title of this news report and in Bellemare's opening accusation.

UN says 'criminals' killed Hariri – BBC

Rafik Hariri was killed using a lorry full of explosives Evidence suggests the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated by a "criminal network", an investigating UN team has said. No suspects were named, but the investigators said a "Hariri Network" had Mr Hariri under surveillance before the assassination. The ex-PM and 22 others died in a huge car bombing in Beirut in February 2005. Past UN inquiries suggested that Syrian and Lebanese intelligence forces had played a role – which Syria denied. The UN panel, headed by Canadian former prosecutor Daniel Bellemare, said in the 10th report on the case that it could now confirm that "on the basis of available evidence… a network of individuals acted in concert to carry out the assassination", said the news agency AFP. The commission suggests this network was responsible for other attacks against high-profile Lebanese figures, and at least part of the network continued to operate after Mr Hariri's killing.

The US has put a premium on the effort to isolate Syria. V.P. Cheney's visit was instrumental in shoring up flagging efforts to put the squeeze on Syria. I have heard this from sources in Washington, and now Khaled Oweis quotes diplomats in Damascus to the same effect. The media has been aggressively anti-Syria, as well.

The Syrians are taking the view that what really counts in the end is not the propaganda game, but the action on the ground over the long haul. They believe that Syria and its allies will come out ahead in Lebanon, despite US and Saudi efforts to disarm and isolate Hizbullah. Syria is convinced that the Lebanese Shiites and their Christian allies are too numerous to be side-lined or marginalized in Lebanese politics indefinitely. Eventually, the March 14th coalition will have to come to terms with their demands and give them a larger voice in government, either through elections in 2009 or earlier in some sort of political deal. Cheney and his team may be able to win a few rounds in the coming months, but Syrian authorities believe that ultimately Washington will have to accommodate Syrian and Lebanese opposition interests in the region.

They believe that ex-Ambassador Feltman of Lebanon was being intentionally misleading last week, when he argued that US "policy is based on support by both the Republican and Democratic parties for Lebanon as a cornerstone in the foreign policy of the United States." Feltman went on to say that "Washington's stand on Lebanon is based on the nation's 'democracy and sovereignty' in contrast with Israel's stand, which is based on a security concept." Damascus is counting on the fact that Washington's "democracy" agenda is not really the guiding principle of its regional policy. Damascus is convinced that the US is more like Israel than it wants to admit.

Syrian authorities were also made more confident by today's UN report on the Hariri investigation, which named Syria only to praise it for good cooperation.

Mideast rift upstages Arab League summit

This weekend's Arab League gathering of Middle East and North African countries in Syria is expected to be a display in regional divisions.

By Julien Barnes-Dacey | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor Damascus, March 28, 2008 

Proclamations of a "united Arab effort" are inescapable on the streets of Damascus today. But as Syria prepares to host its first-ever Arab League summit, the gathering of states across the Middle East and North Africa has become an expression of division, rather than unity.

Syria is more isolated now than at any moment in recent history, publicly spurned by Egypt and Saudi Arabia – the traditional big Arab players – who are only sending low-level delegations to the prestigious gathering that opens Saturday. Lebanon is boycotting altogether.

The United States and its allies in Riyadh and Cairo accuse Syria of using its influence in Lebanon – particularly with the Hizbullah militant group – to block its adversaries next door from coming to power, and thus scuttling any political solution to that country's deepening factional crisis.

Syria is also spurned for its ongoing support of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Palestinian territories and for standing shoulder to shoulder with Iran as the Persian Shiite nation grows increasingly assertive across the Middle East.

"It would have been unheard of a few years ago to imagine a summit where the leaders of Egypt and Saudi Arabia would not only boycott, but would make it very public that they are not coming because of Syrian meddling in Lebanon," says Rime Allaf of Chatham House, the London think tank.

Syria, which has called on Arab states to attend the meeting in order to discuss the various regional problems, places the blame for the pre-summit spat between nations squarely on American shoulders.

"The United States has been at a loss as to how to put pressure on this summit," said Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem. "These are all attempts to torpedo the summit because it is a summit that the US has nothing to do with, neither in its agenda nor in the decisions it will take."

Even as the summit threatens to be an embarrassing failure, Syria has refused to disown its allies, projecting itself as the leader of an alliance that is countering US and Israeli interests in the Middle East.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dubs his country the heart of this "axis of resistance" that unifies Damascus, Hizbullah, Hamas, and Tehran in its defiance of Western and Israeli interests in the region. Representing part of this union, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is one of the more notable dignitaries to have already confirmed his attendance at the summit.

"We do not care what others say about us," says Suleiman Haddad, chairman of the Syrian Foreign Affairs Committee. Mr. Haddad says Syria represents the true majority in Lebanon and that it will continue supporting the "resistance" in the Palestinian territories.

Analysts, however, say Syria's position of opposition to Washington is dictated more by practical realism than ideological fervor. From its perspective, Lebanon is seen as the back door into Syria that cannot be left in the hands of a pro-American, anti-Syria government while a hostile administration remains in the White House.

"When you want to threaten Syria, when you want to create problems for Syria, you begin in Lebanon," says Samir Altaqi, head of the Orient Center for Studies in Damascus, pointing to the recent deployment of US Navy warships off the Lebanese coast.

Syria's influence over militant groups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip is also considered leverage in its struggle to regain control of the Golan Heights territory, which was occupied by Israel in 1967.

But while Syria says it is part of an opposition axis, the country remains ready to cut a deal, too, says Chatham House's Ms. Allaf.

She points to Syria's willingness to attend the recent Annapolis, Md., peace conference hosted by President Bush as a clear sign that Syria is ready to negotiate. "There is no carrot for the Syrians at the moment," she says. "Clearly the Syrians are not just going to dump their allies."

For the moment, however, deadlock rather than dialogue is seen as the most likely scenario in Damascus.

"Syria thinks that being stubborn will pay off and that the US effort in Lebanon will collapse," says Joshua Landis, a Syrian expert at the University of Oklahoma.

He compares the situation to the long Lebanese civil war in the 1980s. After the Americans and other regional players withdrew, Syria was the last country standing.

More Arab leaders snub Syria and skip summit
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis and Jonathan Wright

DAMASCUS (Reuters) – More Arab kings and presidents on Friday joined the long list of leaders staying away from an Arab summit hit by a campaign to punish the Syrian hosts for backing the Lebanese opposition.

The Yemeni vice president will represent his country and Jordan will send only its permanent representative at the Arab League to the annual two-day meeting opening on Saturday — more snubs to an event Syria had hoped would dispel the impression that it is isolated in the region.

The Lebanese government is boycotting the event completely, and its closest allies — Saudi Arabia and Egypt — announced earlier this week that they would send only low-level delegations.

Bahrain, which is close to the Saudis, sent a deputy prime minister, another low-level delegation leader.

Diplomats and commentators say the United States has been the driving force behind the campaign to dissuade Arab leaders from going to Syria, which prides itself on its resistance to U.S. and Israeli policies.

"The Americans have been working on ensuring low-level representation in the run-up to the summit. We are seeing now a snowball effect," said one diplomat in the Syrian capital.

Another diplomat noted that Saudi Arabia made its decision shortly after U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney visited the kingdom last week.

Veteran Syrian journalist Thabet Salem said Syria still aimed to show it was a "no surrender" country whose policies were in line with popular Arab sentiment. ….

Diplomats had expected Ali Saleh, President of Yemen, to come, especially after his success in negotiating an agreement this week between the two main Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas. Only the Vice President is coming.

Iraq is sending Vice President Adel Abdul-Hadi rather than Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is busy with the outbreak of fighting between government forces and fighters loyal to Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is on his way as a guest on the sidelines but the U.N. secretary-general, who often attends Arab summit as a guest of honor, is not coming this year, Syrian officials said.

By 1 p.m. (1100 GMT), the only heads of state to have arrived were Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and President Ahmed Abdullah Mohamed Sambi of the Comoros. The presidents of Sudan and Algeria, as well as some Gulf heads of state, are expected to attend.

I am not sure I believe the news that Israel is seriously seeking to resume peace talks with Syria, as I have explained recently, but it is possible.

Israel seeking to resume peace talks with Syria, Friday, March 28, 2008

An Israeli cabinet minister has revealed that his Government is seeking to resume peace talks with Syria. Binyamin Ben-Eliezer says all efforts are being made to restart negotiations leading a peace treaty.

He did not disclose if those efforts were having any success, but said Israel recognised it would have to return the occupied Golan Heights to Syria under any agreement. Previous talks between the two sides collapsed in 2000.

German-Based IRANIAN Journalist arrested by Turks for 'assisting the FBI in the flight of Gen. Alireza Ashgari from Iran.. (Via Friday Lunch club)

This huge story from Laura Rosen, here

WHO: AMIR FARSHAD EBRAHIMI, GERMAN-BASED JOURNALIST AND HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST
WHEN: TODAY
WHERE: ISTANBUL AIRPORT
WHAT: ARREST OF GERMAN-BASED IRANIAN JOURNALIST BY TURKISH AUTHORITIES ON CHARGES THAT HE HAS COLLABORATED WITH THE FBI IN THE FLIGHT OF ALIREZA ASGHARI FROM IRAN. TURKISH AUTHORITIES HAVE ADVISED MR. EBRAHIMI THAT IN ORDER TO AVOID ANOTHER SIMILAR INCIDENT THEY ARE DEPORTING HIM IN THE NEXT FEW HOUS BACK TO IRAN

Also Via Friday Lunch Club:

Areas of Baghdad fall to militias as Iraqi Army falters in Basra, In the Times of London, here

"Punishing Hamas Has Backfired", ICG's Gareth Evans writes in the CSM, here

.

What's Behind the Saudi Snub of the Syrian Summit?, CFR's Sara Moller wries here

.

Iraqi Prime Minister ‘Irrelevant’ in Shiite Power Struggle, CFR's Vali Nasr writes here

Manar, my wife, just gave birth to our second child, Jonah Hutton Firas Landis.

Jonah was born at 1:00 p.m. on Thursday March 27. He was 8 pounds and 10 ounces and 22 inches long. He came out quickly and without struggle. His brother Kendall Shaaban is delighted even though he wanted a sister named variously Pamela or Alexandra.

If you are wondering how we came up with Jonah, it is because my mother is named Joan Hutton. Jonah is also Yunis in Arabic and Ianis in Greek. Firas is the name of Manar's brother.