Abu Muqawama on the chances of yacht-sniping someone.

Nur al-Cubicle writes:  "There was no such yacht. Suleiman was killed at close range in the neck; the gun (not rifle) had a silencer. Le Monde suggests some sort of power struggle, which has already resulted in house arrest for General Asef Shawkat."

Landis writes: Asef Shawkat appeared on Syrian TV in May on the occasion of Martyr's Day. He is not under house arrest as has been frequently rumored since February.

Khaled Yacoub Oweis: DAMASCUS, Aug 7 (Reuters) –

Syrian authorities on Thursday freed dissident Aref Dalila, jailed seven years ago after calling for freedom of speech and assembly and abolishing monopolies in the single party country. 

"Spending so long in jail for committing no crime was beyond my imagination. My health has been deteriorating and they finally let me go. All what I can say at this point is thank God," Dalila told Reuters after his release.

His lawyer, Mohannad al-Hassani, said: "We hope that this will be the beginning of freedom for the rest of the prisoners of conscience in Syria."

Dalila, an economist, was serving a 10-year jail sentence for weakening national feelings and seeking to change the constitution. He was released from intelligence services' custody and is now with his family.

One official called Dalila "the best economist in Syria". The state's Damascus University fired him from his job as dean of the faculty of economics two years before his arrest.

Dalila was also a leader of the Damascus Spring, a movement of intellectuals and opposition figures that campaigned for democracy to replace four decades of Baath Party rule when President Bashar al-Assad succeeded his late father, Hafez al-Assad, in 2000.

Security forces crushed the movement several months later and jailed its leaders. France and the United States have been leading international calls to free Dalila, 67, and other secular political prisoners in Syria.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is due to visit Syria next month. Diplomats in the Syrian capital say French officials have brought up the issue of human rights during meetings with their Syrian counterparts in the last few months. ..

Assad, however, has rejected what he described as foreign interference in the prisoners issue and said the jailed opponents have violated the constitution…

Ammar al-Qurabi, head of the Syrian Human Rights Organisation, cautioned against expecting improvement in Syria's observance of international human rights standards as a consequence of European diplomatic overtures toward Damascus….

"If there was a change of direction the authorities would  have cancelled these trials and dropped the charges," Qarabi said. "The arrests show no sign of stopping either."

Ford Prefect writes: I have also learned that Michele Kilo’s release is imminent, maybe within the next two weeks, Inshallah! Wishing all prisoners of conscious in Syria a speedy release as well as they are true heroes. We will not forget them.

Hizbullah Deployed Advanced Anti-aircraft Rocket Systems, Israel on Alert – Daily Star

Hizbullah has been able to establish a military presence north and south of the Litani River and is already prepared to a large extent to fire rockets and missiles on Israel, an Israeli newspaper has reported.
Yediot Ahronot daily said Tuesday that security and intelligence chiefs are expected to present a discouraging assessment of the situation during the cabinet meeting Wednesday.

The report added that Hizbullah’s new military plan can effectively hinder the Israeli ground forces who would enter Lebanon to curb the missile fire.

Hizbullah’s rockets and missiles, estimated at 40,000, are found on both sides of the Litani, Yediot Ahronot revealed.

Yet, the heavy arsenal, the newspaper added, is made up of several hundred rockets with warheads weighing hundreds of kilograms and featuring a range of up to 250 kilometers (roughly 160 miles).

The arsenal is found underground north of the Litani and is well fortified in land bought by Hizbullah, the newspaper said.

In south Lebanon, the group established a fortified underground system that would be used to fight the IDF armored corps and infantry troops that advance towards the rocket arsenal north of the Litani. Meanwhile, the logistics and training center of Hizbullah, which has been boosted with thousands of new fighters, is in the Bekaa Valley region.

However, the most worrisome development to Israelis has to do with a new component that Hizbullah is attempting to set up with Syrian assistance.

The newspaper mentioned an anti-aircraft system that is aimed at limiting Israel’s ability to gather intelligence above Lebanon, and later make it more difficult for the Israeli Air Force to strike in Lebanon and Syria.

The Israeli daily warned that if Iran, Syria, and Hizbullah were able to establish a massive anti-aircraft system in Lebanon, this will fundamentally change the strategic balance of power.

This system, the newspaper pointed out, is supposed to provide aerial defense to the entire Syrian-Iranian rocket and missile arsenal in Lebanon and western Syria.

Yediot Ahronot said the message to Syria, which is also being conveyed via Wednesday’s cabinet meeting and through other means, some of them clandestine, is as follows: Israel would not accept the establishment of an advanced anti-aircraft system in Lebanon; should it be set up, Israel will not hesitate to act against it.

Israel is also warning Lebanon against granting Hizbullah the freedom to act, in light of the latest government decision in Beirut that in fact defines Hizbullah as part of the national army.

And the third issue: A warning to Hizbullah to refrain from carrying out acts of revenge for the killing of its top commander Imad Mughniyeh in a Damascus car bombing last February; Such acts would meet a “disproportional response.”

The Israeli government is attempting to convey all these messages at this time to Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and the international community, the daily said.

Israeli officials hope that exposing the Syria-Hizbullah intentions will deter Damascus and Tehran and stop them from implementing their plans in Lebanon.

“European Parliament Speaker: isolation is not the solution…” (Al-Watan Syria) Mideastwire.com – Click here for source

On August 7, the state-controlled Al-Watan daily carried the following report: “European Parliament Speaker Hans-Gert Poettering said that a new page in European-Syrian relations has been opened and stressed Syria’s important and efficient role in the region… Poettering said in exclusive statements to Al-Watan: “This new page between the two sides was opened in the context of the resumption of the multipartite European policy toward the Middle East.” He added: “It is the result of numerous bilateral and multilateral diplomatic initiatives and it is needless to say that the European parliament welcomes it. Isolation is not a solution for any of us”.

“He continued: “Syria is highly important in the region and is a key player in the peace process in the Middle East. It is certain that maintaining the contacts with Syria and with the Syrian community by the European parliament, contributed to the spread of the EU message in the region. Regarding the Syrian-European partnership agreement, he stated: “The European parliament will take into consideration additional benefits and incentives for Syria, ones which will surpass those stipulated in the partnership agreement, in order to encourage Syria to consecrate its foreign policy and its regional position in a constructive way that would help promote regional peace, stability and prosperity, especially through its support of the current peace process in the Middle East.” – Al-Watan Syria, Syria

Political suicide, Palestinian style By Rami G. Khouri, Daily Star, August 6, 2008

It is painful watching events in Gaza and the West Bank unfold, as Fatah and Hamas battle it out like a bunch of armed neighborhood gangs. The mood among Palestinians throughout the world is one of despair and gloom, tinged with embarrassment and occasional …

When they hit bottom – and they are almost there – the Palestinians will find better leadership that can regain their cohesion and credibility, and their self-respect. […]

Posted by Alex

Syrian economist and highly respected reformer Aref Dalileh who has been serving a 10 years sentence in jail since 2001 has been released following a presidential pardon.

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Dalileh's lawyer Mohhamad Alhosny told Reuters Aref Dalileh is now with his family at their home in Latakia.

First reaction from my friend Egyptian journalist Mona Eltahawy:

“He was one of the most inspirational people I met on that first trip to Damascus – I absolutely loved talking to him even though I usually hate economy and talking about it.”

'Murdered Syrian officer knew too much'
By BRENDA GAZZAR AND HERB KEINON
Aug 4, 2008 – Jerusalem Post

Amid increasing speculation, some Arab media and Syrian dissidents suggested Monday that the reported assassination of a senior Syrian intelligence officer over the weekend may be a case of one man knowing too much for his own good.

As of Monday, the tightly-controlled Syrian press had yet to comment on the reported death of Brig.-Gen. Muhammad Suleiman, said to be a close adviser to Syrian President Bashar Assad, who was reportedly killed by a sniper from a yacht.

"There is no doubt that General Muhammad Suleiman is the closest person to Bashar al-Assad and is his right hand in the armed forces and he knows everything," an unidentified Syrian official was quoted as saying in Monday's London-based Asharq al-Awsat, which is owned by Saudi Arabia and is critical of Assad's government. "He has all the files; security, financial and [army] reform" files.

Suleiman, 49, was responsible for "sensitive security files" in the Syrian president's office and in charge of the financing and reform of the Syrian army, the source said. But he added that it was too early to know whether the assassination had to do with particular files Suleiman handled.

"It's better to wait three or four days until the indications appear in this or that direction, particularly because the assassination took place in a very precise way," he was quoted as saying by Asharq al-Awsat.

Other Syrian sources, quoted in the Al Bawaba news site, have said he was the liaison officer to Hizbullah, in addition to other assignments.

Asharq al-Awsat also said Suleiman had been among the Syrian officials requested by the former president of the international tribunal to investigate the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

Dissidents were quick to point the finger at the regime.

"As [with] everybody else, it seems, I cannot help but connect [Suleiman's assassination] to an ongoing attempt at eliminating people who have sensitive information on the Lebanese file and Syria's involvement there, perhaps even the assassination of Hariri, et al," the Maryland-based Syrian dissident and novelist Ammar Abdulhamid wrote in an e-mail interview.

"It seems that the indictment issued against [President] Omar Bashir of Sudan [by the International Criminal Court for genocide, crimes against humanity and murder] might have had a psychological impact here. After all, the Tribunal is still the main threat against the regime."

But Syrian expert Joshua Landis, the co-director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma, said he doubts the veracity of many such claims, often circulated by the regime's opponents to show Western countries that Syria is unstable and not worth engaging.

"We don't know anything about this Muhammad Suleiman," he told The Jerusalem Post. "It's really all wild speculation. There is a big propaganda machine that would use something like this to imply that the regime is falling apart… I think there will be a lot of speculation about this, [and] all of it will be uninformed or misleading."

Landis said that Suleiman had played an important role the first two years of Bashar Assad's regime, serving "as a sort of chief of staff" but had played a less prominent role since then.

The assassination, he added, is "embarrassing to the regime," since it is doing its best to depict itself as "a sea of tranquility in the Middle East fraught with extremism, factionalism and al-Qaida type elements."

Israeli diplomatic sources said it was difficult to tell what kind of significance the killing of Suleiman would have on Syria domestically, or on the possible ramifications for Israel, since no one had any definitive idea who was responsible.

"There is a complete Syrian blackout," the sources said, adding that there were a number of theories about who might have had an interest in killing him.

The first theory is that it had to do with internal fighting inside Hizbullah, and a possible "settling of accounts." The second theory is that Assad himself may have wanted to see him killed, concerned he may have known too much about the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri three years ago. The UN-established Special Tribunal for Lebanon is expected early next year to begin trying those suspected of killing Hariri in 2005.

And the third theory is that Israel was responsible for the killing, to stop the arms smuggling from Syria to Hizbullah. Suleiman was reportedly responsible for the transfer of arms to Hizbullah.

The officials said that unlike Israel's attack in September on an alleged nuclear facility in Syria, or the killing of Hizbullah commander Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus, Israel did not feel it had to prepare for a possible revenge attack, partly because the Syrians have not blamed Israel.

Though Syria did blame Israel for the September attack, and Hizbullah blamed Israel for the killing of Mughniyeh, Damascus has not pointed a finger at Israel for the killing of Suleiman.

Suleiman's assassination, along with that of Hizbullah operations chief Imad Mughniyeh's, demonstrates that Syria's security apparatus is not fool-proof, says Moshe Maoz, a professor emeritus of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

"This is a blow to the regime," he told the Post. "This is a police state and security is above everything. In this sense, it's not going good for the regime." Maoz said he "doubts very much" that Israel was involved in Suleiman's death.

Suleiman "was at the heart of the regime and Israel is in negotiations with Syria and this is not the time to do it," he said. "Normally, Israel would exhaust all possibilities to damage the regime, but not now."

He added: "But it's very, very hard to say."

Channel Two journalist Ehud Ya'ari said Monday that Syrian sources indicated the assassination had to do with Suleiman's involvement with Syrian's alleged nuclear program

[End]

[Landis Analysis] The following analysis by Oxford Analytica, which is usually very good, does not seem very sound this time. The analyst, who may be new, argues that Syria has dramatically changed its foreign policy to become cooperative on Lebanon and elsewhere because it was scared to death by Israel's 2006 bombing of Lebanon. The analysist surmises that Damascus made the calculation that it had to make serious concessions to the West or bad things would happen to it. The Analyst also takes seriously the rumours about Asef Shawkat trying to undermine the regime. This is poppycock according to my sources. Asef has not tried to carry out a coup and is still a power in Syria and on good terms with the president.

The reason for the change in Lebanon is because the March 14 coalition and Western powers — primarily France — caved in to Hizbullah's demands that the Lebanese opposition get a blocking third in the new cabinet. It was not Syria that changed behavior and altered its demands but France and March 14th. Washington also has had to bow to reality and Hizbullah's power in Lebanon. The 2006 War did not prove Israel's hegemony, but its weakness. Miltary means could not wipe out Hizbullah. The US stepped in after 2006 and tried to build up the March 14th hardliners and the Lebanese Army in the hope that they would be able to disarm Hizbullah. This proved to be in vain when the Army cooperated with Hizbullah in the Shiite militia's strike on Hariri's power base in West Beirut. France saw the writing on the wall and recognized that only diplomacy and dialogue with Syria would settle the Lebanon stand-off. So did Hariri and company, so did Israel, leading to its announcement of renewed peace negotiations with Syria.

Here is the Oxford Analytica analysis:

SYRIA: Foreign policy adjustment breaks isolation
Tuesday, July 29 2008
Oxford Analytica 2008

Ron Suskind says so in his new book "The Way of the World"… in Politico, here

Author claims White House knew Iraq had no WMD By Bob Considine, NBC, August 5, 2008 President Bush committed an impeachable offense by ordering the CIA to to manufacture a false pretense for the Iraq war in the form of a backdated, handwritten document linking Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda, an explosive new book claims. The charge is made […]

The White House had concocted a fake letter from Habbush to Saddam, backdated to July 1, 2001,” Suskind writes. “It said that 9/11 ringleader Mohammad Atta had actually trained for his mission in Iraq – thus showing, finally, that there was an operational link between Saddam and al Qaeda, something the Vice President’s Office had been pressing CIA to prove since 9/11 as a justification to invade Iraq. There is no link.”  …

Syrian Leader Gets Top Billing in Middle East by Doing Nothing
by Robert Fisk
Published on Monday, August 4, 2008 by The Independent/UK

President Bashar al-Assad is once more one of the “triple pillars” of the Middle East. We may not like that. George Bush may curse the day his invasion of Iraq helped to shore up the power of the Caliph of Damascus. But Mr Assad’s latest trip to Tehran – just three weeks after he helped to toast the overthrow of the King of France beside President Nicolas Sarkozy – seals his place in history. Without a shot being fired, Mr Assad has ensured anyone who wants anything in the Middle East has got to talk to Syria. He’s done nothing – and he’s won.

The Europeans like to think – or, at least, M. Sarkozy likes to think – Mr Assad was in Tehran to persuade President Ahmadinejad not to go nuclear. Even Sana, the official Syrian news agency, was almost frank about it. The purpose of the Assad visit was “to consult on the nuclear issue and the right of states to peaceful enrichment” and “exchange ideas aimed at clarifying Iran’s commitment to all international agreements”. Mr Assad was M. Sarkozy’s point-man.

The inevitable followed. President Ahmadinejad expressed his belief that only diplomacy could deliver us from the nuclear tangle, leaving us with Mr Assad’s statement to M. Sarkozy on 12 July. Asked if the Iranians were trying to develop a nuclear bomb, Mr Assad told the French President he had asked the Iranians this very question, they had replied in the negative and this was good enough for him.

What’s interesting about this is that Mr Assad probably believes it. Indeed, it may be true. Of all people, he knows about trust – or the lack of it – and his father’s main foreign policy achievement was probably maintaining Syria’s relations with Iran. In the face of every appeal to abandon Tehran, he refused. The younger Assad’s talks with Israel via Turkey suggested to the Washington commentariat that he may at last be abandoning Iran and the return of Golan was more powerful to Bashar al-Assad than Syria’s all-embracing role as the postman of Tehran. Not so.

For there was Mr Assad in Tehran this weekend, praising the mutual relationship between Iran and Syria and talking with Mr Ahmadinejad about the Israeli-US “conspiracy”. The Syrian-supported Hizbollah’s retrieval of living prisoners from Israel in return for the remains of two dead Israeli soldiers, was described by Mr Assad as “one of the achievements of the resistance”. Which, in a way, it was. For Hizbollah’s allies in the Lebanese government now have veto power over the cabinet majority, and Syria’s power has returned to Beirut without the cost of sending a single Syrian soldier.

In other words, Syria kept its cool. When the US invaded Iraq, the world wondered if its tanks would turn left to Damascus or right to Tehran. In fact, they lie still in the Iraqi desert, where US generals still variously accuse Iran and Syria of encouraging the insurgency against them. If Washington wants to leave Iraq, it can call Damascus for help.

And the real cost? The US will have to restore full relations with Syria. It will have to continue talks with Iran. It will have to thank Iran for its “help” in Iraq – most of the Iraqi government, after all, was nurtured in the Islamic Republic during the Iran-Iraq war in which the US took Saddam’s side. It will have to accept Iran is not making a nuclear bomb. And it will have to prevent Israel staging a bombing spectacular on Iran which will destroy every hope of US mediation. It will also have to produce a just Middle East peace. McCain or Obama, please note.

And the triple pillars? Well, one is Mr Assad, of course. The second is the crackpot Mr Ahmadinejad. And the third? It was once President Bush. Who will take his place? President Assad must have enjoyed his Iranian caviar.

–Robert Fisk

By Qifa Nabki & Alex

The Syria-Israel peace negotiations seem to have moved past their initial exploratory flirtation period and are now approaching a fifth round of indirect talks, with a sixth round planned for September. No doubt the Turkish housekeeping staff at the undisclosed hotel location have acquired enough pidgin Arabic and Hebrew to keep their guests well-stocked in midnight doner kebabs and bitter coffee, as they dutifully plod their way, if potentially only asymptotically, to an historic deal. At some point in the coming months, the two sides may leave their stuffy rooms and walk down the hall to an executive suite to face each other across a table.

The international press is all aflurry with the implications of a successful agreement: will Syria step back into the Arab fold? Will it drop Iran like a hot potato? Will it cut Hizbullah and Hamas loose? Will Israel actually relinquish the lovely and temperate Golan, with its wineries and ski resorts, in exchange for a solemn promise from the man who leads the nation that has — for the past half century — defined itself as the bastion of the struggle against its southern neighbor? Needless to say, amidst the optimism, there is no small measure of skepticism, paranoia, and mistrust.

Feeding the skepticism are many Arabic-language outlets — especially in the Saudi-funded media — which are engaged in a daily hack job on the Syrians to complement their diplomatic initiatives to convince the French and Americans to shun the Syrian talks as a bait-and-switch, i.e. typical Damascene politics as usual. Of course, this response is partly understandable: inquiring minds in Washington, Paris, Tel Aviv, Beirut, Riyadh, and Cairo would like to know what Bashar al-Assad can possibly deliver in exchange for the return of Syria's Golan Heights, after having built up a resistance infrastructure that will not easily dismantle itself. On the other hand, the criticism of the Syria-Israel talks in Saudi newspapers and satellite news networks is also strongly motivated by the bad blood between Damascus and Riyadh, which has built up over the past four years through their turf wars in Lebanon. Having seen Syria's allies emerge empowered after the Doha Accord, the Saudis remain furious and the mini regional Cold War shows no signs of thawing.Syria has largely ignored the provocations and outspoken indignance of the Saudi columnists, but this may not be the wisest strategy.

A barrage of negative publicity runs the risk of being taken seriously and undermining the peace negotiations, particularly if the Israeli public remains unconvinced of Syria's sincerity, and if the next American president declines to commit the United States to its essential role as a mediator of the deal. As such, al-Assad might do well to start trying to build more confidence in his intentions, and in his ability to make good on them. There are three clear ways to approach this challenge, each with a different audience in mind.

I. Damascus Spring, redux
For about a year following the death of President Hafiz al-Assad in June 2000, there were signs of a Syrian glasnost, as testified by the release of political prisoners, the permitting of assemblies of intellectuals and opposition members in political "salons", and a greater sense of openness and optimism in Syrian society. The government, however, brought the so-called Damascus Spring to an abrupt end in late 2001 by clamping down on opposition activities and jailing various intellectuals. This was a period of great optimism but also great risk for the young president, and it is likely that the regime (particularly its old guard members) became skittish at the pace of demanded reforms. The ensuing years, with all of the turmoil wrought by the Iraq war, the Lebanon fiasco, and the showdown with Bush and Chirac, made a return to the days of the Damascus Spring practically impossible.

Times have changed. Bashar al-Assad is popular in Syria and in the Arab world. His ability to ward off American pressure and to re-exert a measure of influence and power in Lebanon has earned him the reputation as a chip off the old block. Thanks to the perceived solidity of his position, Bashar is, today, much more able than ever to embark upon a program of reforms within Syria, reforms which would not only be in the best interests of ordinary Syrians themselves, but would also help to improve Syria's image in the United States, Europe, and yes, even Israel.

Why is this important? In politics, the tail may indeed often wag the dog, but grass-roots support never hurt a political cause. Syria's reputation in journalistic, academic, NGO, policy, and think tank circles is among the worst in the region, this despite the fact that her neighbors are hardly a confederation of Jeffersonian democracies. The extent to which this reputation is justified remains a hot topic, about which people can agree or disagree. However, there is no doubt about the fact that the Syrian government — historically — hasn't done itself any favors in the publicity department. By accelerating reforms in a visible fashion, Bashar al-Assad might begin to address this problem, anticipating a period in which Syria's image might be an important factor in the context of peace negotiations. Cultivating the reputation of a reformer who enjoys widespread popular support can only make it easier for figures such as Sarkozy, Obama or McCain to embrace the Syrian leader without worrying about how such a move will play among their constituents.

Potential reforms might include:

• Beginning to release certain widely-respected political prisoners
• Introducing more effective anti-corruption measures
• Passing the much-anticipated New Parties Law, which would permit the participation of other political gatherings in national elections … to be followed two years later by free municipal elections.   
• Liberalizing the press and easing restrictions on Internet sites.

 
II. A Simultaneous Lebanon-Israel Peace Track

Following the Doha Accord, there have been several historic pronouncements on the shape of future Syrian-Lebanese relations. There's been talk of exchanging embassies and demarcating political borders. There has also been talk of releasing Lebanese prisoners, now that there are no longer any left in Israeli jails. These developments have helped to foster a climate conducive to papering over past grievances at least for the time being, in the interests of establishing stability in Lebanon. As a result, much of the anti-Syrian rhetoric in the Lebanese media has noticeably abated.

This rapprochment could be enhanced further by overtly nudging the Lebanese towards the negotiating table with Israel. Parallel talks in Turkey with the Israelis would send a very positive signal about the seriousness of Bashar's initiative, because it would put an end to the speculation that he is merely playing the process and that Hizbullah and Iran are looking the other way. The presence of Lebanese negotiators would make the talks all the more urgent to millions of Lebanese who will be directly affected by the results. And while it would likely remain tacitly understood that the Lebanese deal could not be pursued separately from Syria's and would indeed have to temporally follow the return of the Golan, the participation of Lebanon in the negotations would demonstrate — if only symbolically — that Bashar has the full support of his Lebanese allies in pursuing peace. Israel could help this along by not sabotaging a future political role for Hizbollah in Lebanese politics.

III. The Arab Peace Initiative

Relations with Saudi Arabia are at an all-time low, and this might not bode well for the future of the talks. In the Middle East, it does not take much to play a spoiler role, and if the Saudis in particular feel that Bashar is trying to steal the spotlight away from them by becoming the go-to guy for solving the conflict with Israel (particularly the Lebanese and Palestinian dimensions thereof), they will likely continue in their efforts to call his sincerity and goodwill into question. The sooner Bashar mends his fences with King Abdullah, the better, although this will be easier said than done. 

One way to do this is to deliberately and insistently situate these talks within the context of the Arab Peace Initiative. Syria holds the presidency of the Arab League this year. Bashar could take the opportunity to reinvigorate the offer of a regional solution by complimenting the Saudis on their vision for peace and subordinating the current talks to one piece of an agreement that has already been worked out. All of this depends, of course, on Saudi willingness to cooperate with the Syrians, which may not be forthcoming. When Sadat made peace with Israel in 1978, Hafiz al-Assad cut off relations with Egypt for ten years. One hopes that the current frostiness will not develop into such frigidity.

(Posted by Qifa Nabki)

There are more and more pieces in the mainstream press about the price of peace, particularly on the Syrian side. Parts of two of them are reproduced below, with links to the full text. The al-Ahram column is a good survey of attitudes around the region, and it concludes realistically that "it is unlikely that Syria would sever its ties with either Iran or Hizbullah…" The Jerusalem Post article is another one of these "Syria is going to sell everything including the kitchen sink for peace" stories. One wonders who these newspaper editors are and how they take themselves seriously publishing such "unconfirmed" reports.

Separation anxiety?

Al-Ahram Weekly (31 July – 6 August, 2008) 

Signs point to a reconfiguration of Syria's relation to Iran, though the signals are mixed, writes Bassel Oudat from Damascus

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallem, who is now in Iran to attend a Non-Aligned Movement meeting, is said to be also making preparations for a visit by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to Tehran. Analysts will be following closely the visit, looking for any signs of change in Syrian regional policy. Recently, Damascus seems to be doing a lot of things differently: talking to Europe, staying out of Lebanon, talking to the Israelis, and generally stressing the pragmatic aspect of its foreign policy.

When President Al-Assad was in Paris recently, he offered to help resolve inter- Palestinian differences. Then he gave a warm welcome to President Mahmoud Abbas in Damascus a few weeks ago. Damascus is said to be advising Palestinian groups, including Hamas, to cool things down for now.

Damascus distanced itself also from turbulence in Iraq, told its media to stop badmouthing the Saudis, and asked the French president to see if the Americans would co-sponsor their talks with Israel.

All of this is bound to affect Syrian-Iranian relations, as well as the way Tehran is doing business in the region. Without Syria's support, the Iranians will not be able to work hand-in-hand with Hizbullah, and the legitimacy of their involvement in Iraq will be called into question.

Inside and outside the region, there is much speculation that Syria is about to ditch its alliance with Iran. Should this happen, Syria's relations with Hizbullah are bound to change and Lebanon's domestic politics will never be the same again.  [click here for full text]

 
'Syria willing to cut ties with Iran'

Aug. 1, 2008, JPost.com Staff , THE JERUSALEM POST

A peace agreement with Syria is within reach, according to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's envoys to talks with Syria, who returned from another round of indirect negotiations in Turkey and were quoted in a Maariv report Friday.

According to the report, the sides have already formulated a sketch of a peace deal and have told the Turkish mediators that they are willing to pay the price, which, for the Syrians, would include cutting off Iran.

The Jerusalem Post could not confirm the report.

The sketch includes several clauses, the report said. According to the first, general, chapter, the two countries will end the state of war between them, establish a viable peace, including an exchange of ambassadors and the establishment of diplomatic relations.

The second clause of the agreement delineates the terms of normalization between Jerusalem and Damascus.

The third chapter will reportedly deal with security arrangements and will include a full Israeli withdrawal form the plateau and the demilitarization of the area. According to the Maariv report, the chapter will also specify a drastic reduction in the magnitude of Syrian armed forces stationed between the Golan and Damascus as well as the erection of an early warning station manned by international forces on Mount Hermon.

According to the report, there was no way to directly prevent Syria from having ties with Iran. The agreement could, however, forbid Damascus from providing weapons to – or harboring representatives of – nations or organizations that threaten Israel.

The report quoted officials familiar with the negotiations as saying that the Syrians had expressed their awareness of Israel's demand and did not reject it.

The officials also said that talks with Israel had already exacted a price from Syrian President Bashar Assad in terms of his relationship with Teheran.

Also in JPost, Jonathan Spyer argues the opposite case ("We'll take the dowry, you keep the bride"), namely that Bashar al-Asad is merely playing the process.

With all this rapprochement going on, the alliance with Iran seems safe and sound. Muallem was in Teheran this week, and met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. The two reconfirmed what Ahmedinejad called their "regional cooperation," and the Iranian president lauded the foiling of "the Zionist regime" and America's plans in Lebanon and Syria.

Thus, the act of talking in Istanbul seems a worthy investment. But it is the side benefits of the conversation which interests Damascus.

This was perhaps most eloquently summed up yesterday on the Web site of the official Syrian newspaper Tishreen's. While the regional newspaper Sharq al-Awsat
devoted two editorials this week to dissecting the negotiations, on the same day that the talks resumed, Tishreen's homepage failed even to acknowledge that they were taking place. Instead, the lead story on its Web site informed readers that "his excellency President Bashar Assad met with a delegation of American churchmen yesterday. In the meeting, we are told, his excellency stressed the importance of dialogue between nations."

There could be few more eloquent demonstrations of Syrian intentions. When it comes to negotiating with Israel, Assad is keen to take the dowry, while showing little enthusiasm for embracing the bride.

In The Daily Star, a discussion about Hizbullah's likely response to Olmert's resignation, i.e. a claim of victory. Plus, the implications of extending UNSCR 1701.

Syria: trial of Damascus Declaration signatories opens in Damascus

Three journalists – Fayez Sara, Ali Abdallah and Akram Al-Bunni – were among the 12 signatories of the Damascus Declaration whose trial on charges of “publishing false information with the aim of harming the state,” “membership of a secret organisation designed to destabilise the state” and “fuelling ethnic and racial tension” began in Damascus on 30 July. The hearing was open to the public.

All of the defendants pleaded not guilty and insisted that the aim of the Damascus Declaration was to defend Syria.

Sara was arrested on 3 January. Abdallah were Bunni were arrested in December after a meeting of the National Council of the Damascus Declaration on 11 December. A total of 39 signatories were arrested at the meeting but most were later released.

Signed by many government opponents and human rights activists, the Damascus Declaration called for “democratic and radical change” in Syria. Another Syrian writer journalist, Michel Kilo, was arrested on 14 May 2006 for signing the Damascus-Beirut, Beirut-Damascus Declaration. He is now serving a three-year prison sentence.

Syria hosts Iraqi Shiite leader
Published: July 31, 2008
DAMASCUS, Syria, July 31 (UPI)

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad hosted Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council at a meeting on improving bilateral relations.

Hakim, the Shiite deputy chairman of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, updated the Syrian president on the latest political developments in Iraq, particularly the work toward national reconciliation in the Iraqi government.

For his part, Assad emphasized his support for the maintenance of Iraqi sovereignty, stability and security, the official Syrian Arab News Agency said.

Hakim said in a statement following the meeting that Assad had exemplified a strong political will to boost bilateral relations between the two Arab neighbors.

Assad was also commended by Hakim and his accompanying delegation for his support for displaced Iraqis residing in Syria.

Hakim also took the opportunity to update Assad on the progress of the security arrangement under negotiation between the United States and Iraq.

Under consideration now is "outlining the frame of relations between Iraq and the United States," the deputy chairman said.

Posted by Alex on behalf of

Ford Prefect.

I just got back from Damascus. Syria and the Syrians are ready for peace, I am glad to report.

Damascus was hot as usual during the summer months. It was bursting with life, people, and moving objects (sometimes referred to as cars) wondering around its busy and narrow streets. At traffic lights, the honking starts the minute drivers, who are religiously monitoring the traffic signal of the cross traffic, sense a green light is finally coming. And, as usual, lanes of traffic are ad hoc; you create your own lane at will and other drivers innocently oblige. I love the freedom and liberty of traffic lanes in Syria.

So after months of indoctrination by my Syrian expats here in the US, I was expecting to witness a disgruntled populace in Syria due to recent surges in prices of almost everything. I braced myself for the worst and filled my pockets with 50 liras bills – just in case. I was pleasantly disappointed. Instead, I found people going about their daily lives as they did before, but this time with a strong sense of Syrian pride of standing together and surviving the storm that was hatched in the dark alleys of the White House.

I have never seen or observed this feeling before in Syria. My local friends and relatives, who are usually professional naggers with advanced degrees in whining, are all of the sudden bragging about how great Syria is and the Syrians are. The feeling was that the whole world conspired against them and the Syrians finally won; and the lines at the foreign embassies for Syrian visa seekers have, all of the sudden, disappeared.

Can you find poverty is Syria? Yes. Can you find disenfranchised people in Syria? Sure. Are there prisoners of conscious in Syrian jails? Indeed. But one would be blind not to observe how genuinely the people of Syria feel that sense of vindication after the collapse of the Cheney project in the Middle East. Syrians are now very happy to have their country still in one piece – prosperous (in relative terms), dignified, and the envy of their neighbors.

That is why Syria today is ready for peace with Israel where it wasn’t just a year ago. That sense of vindication comes from repelling the demonic “neoconic” project of dismantling Syria (in which Hariri paid dearly for it with his life), the stellar wins of Hezbollah (twice) in Lebanon, and the demonstrable steps of the Syrian government to enact societal transformation and economic liberalization have all combined to produce a heightened sense of Syrian national identity that is unshakable and self-assured.

And, it was clear to me that Bashar Assad is a popular man in Syria – more so today than his father ever was. Somehow, humbly enough, he showed Syrians that he’s got what it takes to be a strong leader.

Syrians today feel secure, mature, and needing one final step to complete their march towards a viable nation-state. That step is heavily engrained in every Syrian mind: The return of Golan Heights – every inch (or centimeters) of it in exchange for a genuine and lasting peace with Israel. Read on.

Riad is my 30-something driver in Damascus. Every year, for the past 4 years, I hire Riad with his sharp eyes and incredible wit in navigating Damascus traffic and streets. Riad is a very patient driver – never complained about the heat, how late we party, the traffic, or the high prices of food or fuel. Riad is also a devout Muslim. The Quran is neatly tucked away in the car’s glove box compartment. When Riad is waiting, he is usually reading the Quran. Riad is also a Hajji who’s been to Hajj three times. And Riad loves Bashar and hates Khaddam.

Riad got married last year. My wife did meet Riad’s wife once last March. She is a young Syrian woman with an incredible radiance and beauty – clearly visible through her conservative hijab, according to my wife (who rarely mentions anything about beautiful women!)

So, this summer Riad told me the good news. His wife is pregnant and they are expecting twin boys sometime in December. Excited about the news, I asked Riad about what is he going to name the twins. “Ishaq and Elias.” he promptly answered.

Shocked by his answer, I asked the question again, in case I happened to loose my hearing.

“Ishak and Elias,” he repeated. “Ishaq for the Jews and Elias for the Christians. We Muslims are part of that Jewish and Christian religions, and both names are mentioned in the Quran,” Riad promptly answered. “I want to make sure that my children grow up in Syria with names that keep reminding them of our diverse nation (watan), this is Syria and not Saudi Arabia,” Riad concluded.

Syria is ready for peace and Riad is one of its newest heroes.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

By Andrew J. Tabler (Published by The Daily Star)

Today Syria is held out as Iran's "Airstrip One" in the Arab world – an Orwellian island Tehran uses to project its power to Israel's borders and the shores of the Mediterranean. Indeed, Iranian-Syrian relations seem closer than ever – including a newly signed military cooperation agreement. Ties between Damascus and Tehran have deepened over the last two years in the face of US and Western isolation, turning their support for Hizbullah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad into an "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States.

But the recent announcement of indirect talks between Israel and Syria was but the latest sign that Damascus' ties with Tehran – like its ties with all countries – remain ambiguous. A critical way to roll back Iranian influence in Damascus and make a possible Syria-Israel deal worth the paper it's printed on is to recalibrate American policy to address the heart of the Assad regime's economic problems: corruption.

Signs emanating from the Iranian-Syrian alliance this year have been increasingly bizarre – especially when Western and Arab isolation of Syria intensified over Damascus' reticence to help end the presidential gridlock in Lebanon. On February 12, the senior Hizbullah operative Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated in Damascus – a mere stone's throw away from the headquarters of Syria's security services in a country that often claims to be the Arab world's safest. Surprisingly, Damascus branded as "baseless" Tehran's announcement a few days later of a joint Iranian-Syrian investigation, despite Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's visit to Damascus the day after the murder. Then a high-profile Iranian project to replace Damascus' aging public bus fleet with Iranian vehicles was mysteriously cancelled and awarded to a Chinese company.

Today, two high-profile Iranian-Syrian joint ventures to assemble automobiles in Syria – the first in the country's history – are barely scraping by due to Syrian government foot dragging on promises to cut tariffs on the plants' imported components. This is particularly odd as the Syrian state owns a 35 percent stake in one of the projects. Even more ambiguous are statistics recently released by Syria's State Investment office which put direct Iranian investment in Syria at $544 million, a mere 8 percent of Arab investment in Syria – a far cry from Iranian reports last year (also citing Syrian government statistics) that estimated Iranian investment at 66 percent of Arab investment in the country.

What can the US do to entice Damascus to keep Tehran at arm's length? Smarten-up its Syria policy. For 40 years, US policy in Syria has focused almost exclusively on Syria's behavior in the region and ignored the regime's looming economic problems. The Assad regime's historic lifeline – oil production – is rapidly running dry. Damascus announced last year it had become a net importer of oil – four years earlier than analysts predicted. In May, the state was forced to slash oil product subsidies, which will make up the lion's share of Syria's estimated 2008 record budget deficit of $3.77 billion.

The only way out of Damascus' looming fiscal crisis is to deepen market reforms and attract international investment. However, rampant corruption continues to hamstring the legal reforms that international businesses need to see before investing on a large scale. A sign that the regime is deeply worried about corruption as well came last February when the state-owned Al-Thawra newspaper published an unprecedented poll in which 99.6 percent of Syrians surveyed accused the state's courts, municipalities and police of corruption.

Iran, which suffers from many of the same problems as Syria, recently announced that it was increasing the value of its hitherto unknown "technical services" to Syria from $1 billion to $3.5 billion. Unfortunately for Syria's leadership, such assistance is a poisoned chalice that is only likely to satisfy the corruption that undermines the market reforms necessary to stave off the regime's eventual economic collapse.

Washington's recent seizure of the assets of senior Syrian officials in the US, as well as the decades-old European Union and United Nations assistance programs in Syria, have yet to entice the regime to clean up its stables. The US, which has no economic assistance programs in Syria, should prepare to step in in the event of a Syria-Israel deal as an outside and experienced player to help promote the rule of law in Syria. This would help Syria attract much-needed foreign investment, integrate it into the global economy, reduce unemployment and earn the US points with the Syrian people. To lay the groundwork and compete with Iran in Syria ahead of a possible Syria-Israel deal, the US should also recalibrate trade sanctions on Syria to help its companies that shun corruption and business with Iran to more easily do business with America.

Understanding an Arab country's economic woes and their impact on policy should be old hat for Washington. A key reason why Egyptian President Anwar Sadat attacked Israel in 1973 and then sued for peace five years later was that decades of war and domestic authoritarian rule had put Egypt on its back economically. The US understood this and manipulated the situation to its advantage when it brought about a breakthrough in Middle East peacemaking at Camp David in 1979. The US and its allies should plan to do the same with Syria in the years to come.

Andrew Tabler is consultant editor of Syria Today magazine and a former fellow of the Washington-based Institute of Current World Affairs. He is author of the recent Stanley Foundation report: "The High Road to Damascus: Engage Syria's Private Sector." He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

By Qifa Nabki 

Lebanese political veteran and March 14 stalwart Walid Jumblatt gave an interview on July 27 2008 in which he departed strongly from the trenchant anti-Syrian critiques which have defined his rhetoric for over three years. While Jumblatt did not go so far as to say that he was leaving March 14th, he certainly seemed to be pushing the coalition into a different political direction, vis-a-vis its relationship with Syria and Hizbullah.

Many will likely interpret this move as the latest moult in a lifetime of shape-shifting by the canny and outspoken Jumblatt. As even his enemies admit, he is a political survivor, one not above surrendering key pieces of ideology in the service of maintaining his own position and influence. Following the showdown with Hizbullah in May of 2008 — which he lost badly — it took Jumblatt very little time to repent of his political blunders and wash his hands of any further confrontations with the Shiite militia. Now he appears to be setting a new course, perhaps in anticipation of the 2009 parliamentary elections which may require him to build alliances with certain opponents to remain politically viable. 

Here are selections from the interview (read the entire thing at NOW Lebanon):

[I am headed for Vermont for two weeks where I will have a very slow Internet connection. I will be relying on the SC community to pick up the slack. A wonderful debate about the meaning of Ottoman and Mamlouk history and the Shiite-Sunni battles waged during the early modern decades of Syrian history is taking place in the comment section of the post: Samir al-Taki’s talk at the Brookings Institute in Washington DC. It is most instructive and illustrates the very different views on whether the Ottomans defended tolerance or were an on-going source friction between the sects. (I can be reached in Vermont at 802-767-9038)]

James Denselow's latest article — "The axis of pragmatism," Syria's emergence as a confident regional power has been paralleled by a shift in the foreign policy of its former enemies — is in the Guardian and covers the rebirth of Syria's regional position.

Syria Interested in Forging Peace With Israel, Ambassador Says
2008-07-28 10:31:03.600 (New York)
By Gwen Ackerman

July 28 (Bloomberg) — Syria is serious about seeking peace with Israel in exchange for the return of the Golan Heights, Syria's ambassador to the U.S., Imad Moustapha, said in an interview with the nonpartisan Peace Now organization. “This is the state of Syria, telling the state of Israel, that we desire to end the state of war between us, to conclude peace between the two states and to recognize each other and live as peaceful neighbors within a normalized context,'' Moustapha said in a recording of the interview provided by Peace Now Director General Yariv Oppenheimer. Tel Aviv-based Peace Now promotes peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors….

“If Israel really wants peace with Syria, with Lebanon, if they want normalized relations and security on the northern borders, they cannot have this while they continue occupying our Golan,'' Moustapha said.

Land for Peace

Olmert, 62, has never said outright that he would contemplate a land-for-peace deal with Syria. He has said that each side recognizes the other's demands and understands they must be met before an accord can be reached. Public opinion polls show that two-thirds of the public opposes returning the Golan to Syria.

“This is a historic opportunity to make peace, and not only with Syria and Lebanon,'' Moustapha said. “Syria plays the role of gatekeeper between Israel and the rest of the Arab world.''

George K. suggests this WSJ book review, which he says is "extremely entertaining helps us to understand today's Middle-Eastern. At one point, in the middle of his presentation, the writer is highlighting the following:  "In the war between Christendom and Islam: long sieges, ferocious battles and a Venetian commander flayed alive."

When Worlds Collide
By JOHN JULIUS NORWICH
July 21, 2008; Page A11

Empires of the Sea: The Siege of Malta, the Battle of Lepanto, and the Contest for the Center of the World
By Roger Crowley
(Random House, 336 pages, $30)

In all European history, there is no more stirring story than that of the long struggle between Christianity and Islam for mastery of the Mediterranean.

The story begins, essentially, in the early hours of May 29, 1453 — it was a Tuesday — when the army of the Ottoman Sultan Mehmet II the Conqueror burst through the walls of Constantinople and put an end, after 1,123 years and a siege lasting 55 days, to the Byzantine Empire. The story concludes a little more than two centuries later with Islam's final triumph, on Sept. 26, 1669 — a Sunday — when, after 465 years as a Venetian colony, the island of Crete saw the banner of St. Mark lowered for the last time.

In "Empires of the Sea," Roger Crowley has taken as his subject the six decades from 1520 to 1580, the middle act — and by far the most important — of this tremendous drama. The act contains five main scenes. The first is set on the island of Rhodes in 1522, where for six months the Knights Hospitallers of St. John heroically resist the army of Mehmet's great-grandson, Süleyman the Magnificent, before their inevitable surrender….

Turkish soap opera flop takes Arab world by storm
By Farah al-Sweel
Reuters: Saturday, July 26, 2008

RIYADH (Reuters) – A Turkish soap opera that flopped when first broadcast in its native Turkey three years ago has taken the Arab world by storm, provoking a flood of Gulf Arab tourists to Turkey that even includes royalty.

"Noor" became an immediate hit when Saudi-owned MBC satellite television began airing it earlier this year, partly because of its unconventional usage of colloquial Arabic dubbing — and because its blond-haired, blue-eyed leading man had women swooning.

Turkey is expecting the number of Saudi tourists this year to top 100,000, including King Abdullah's wife Hissa al-Shaalan, who has been the subject of YouTube videos showing her swanning through the markets and sweet-shops of Istanbul.

"From 41,000 (tourists) last year to 100,000 this year — the same year this show became phenomenally successful," said Turkish diplomat Yasin Temizkayn. "It's more than just a coincidence." ….

Some very interesting news from Champress (Thanks Alex)

1) Farouk Shara: There will be a new Syrian government before end of the year.

2) Assad will visit Tehran next month

3) German, Italian and Spanish foreign ministers communicated with Walid Mouallem.

4) Spanish Prime minister might visit Damascus next fall.

5) Syria will focus its attention on Iraq next. A number of meetings with Iraqi leaders is planned.

According to Thomas Dine (former director of AIPAC) and now a member of The Search for Common Ground, the meeting between the visiting Syrian delegation and AIPAC was not canceled, but delayed. He also said that the White House pressured on the State Department to cancel its meeting wth the Syrian delegation.

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Syrian Says Peace Agreement With Israel Possible During Bush Term.  
The Washington Times (7/25, Sands)

Reports Samir al-Taki, who is leading a "high-profile Syrian delegation" visiting Washington, said an Israeli-Syrian peace deal "could be signed by the end of this year, but that requires Bush administration involvement that has not been forthcoming." Taki, an adviser to Syrian Prime Minister Naji al-Otari, told the Times, "If the political will is there, we could achieve an agreement within three or four months."

More Syria talks following 'progress'
Jul. 25, 2008
HERB KEINON and TOVAH LAZAROFF , THE JERUSALEM POST

Israel and Syria are expected to hold a fourth round of indirect diplomatic talks in Turkey next week, amid reports that the two sides are dealing with issues such as borders, water rights, security, and normalization of ties.

The Washington Post's David Ignatius wrote Thursday, citing Syrian sources, that agreement was close in three areas: water rights, borders and security, with little progress having been made on normalization issues.

Officials in the Prime Minister's Office, who have kept all information about the indirect negotiations very close to the chest, would not confirm the report. Turkish officials, however, said it was difficult to speak about getting close to agreement while the negotiations remained indirect.

United States and Syria should talk (about everything)
Theodore H. Kattouf

THE recent compromise on power sharing in Lebanon spares the country further bloodshed, and allows its people to return to a modicum of normalcy. However, the underlying causes of the conflict remain, and Lebanon continues to be an arena where external powers play out their rivalries.

Unless and until Syria and the United States reach a grand bargain, the Lebanese will continue to pay the price.

It should now be clear to the most casual observer that Syria’s military withdrawal from Lebanon was hardly the end of its influence there. Iran and Syria are in an alliance to thwart US and Israeli objectives in the region whenever and wherever they can. Despite the overwhelming military advantages the United States and Israel enjoy over their adversaries, Iran and Syria have been particularly adept at playing the spoiler through proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi tribal groups, and Shia militias.

Through much of its second term, the administration of US President George W. Bush has been loath to engage in a prolonged and serious dialogue with Syria, instead preferring attempts to isolate and marginalise its leadership. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, for his part, has borrowed pages from his late father’s playbook to demonstrate that there are no lasting solutions to regional problems without Syria. Yet even Turkish-brokered negotiations between Israel and Syria have not enticed the United States away from its policy of ignoring Syria diplomatically while throwing verbal jabs at the regime whenever it can.

The Israelis have been more pragmatic by far in dealing with Syria than has the Bush administration. The current Israeli government and its military/security leadership have concluded that they are “better off with the devil they know than the devil they don’t.”

This reasoning helps to explain why Israel went to great lengths in the summer of 2006 to assure Syria that it was not the target of Israel’s war with Hezbollah. It also helps to explain the lack of Israeli leaks after the bombing of an alleged nuclear reactor in Syria. Meanwhile, even after the Bush administration tried to discourage indirect Israeli talks with Syria about the Golan heights, Israel cautiously went ahead.

Both Israel and Syria recently concluded that making these talks known is advantageous to them. In the Israeli case, they can pressure the Palestinians for more concessions by suggesting they have another option for peacemaking. The more strategic reason is of course the hope that Syria can be weaned from its 30-year alliance with a nuclear ambitious Iran.

For its part, Syria wants to ensure its relevance and better position itself with the next US administration while the clock runs out on the current one. However, both leaderships know that even if they can agree on the terms of peace, the US government’s role is indispensable to concluding, supporting, and enforcing a treaty.

All of this leaves Lebanon in limbo. Hezbollah has demonstrated that there is no combination of other forces in Lebanon that can challenge its military predominance. And Hezbollah’s leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, has left no doubt that his spiritual guide is Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. As its influence with the group diminishes, Syria can no longer promise to disarm Hezbollah’s militia in the context of a peace treaty with Israel and a positive new relationship with the United States.

It can, however, shut down the Iranian supply pipeline to Hezbollah through Syrian territory. Syria could be even more Machiavellian and work with the United States and others to strengthen the more secular elements in Lebanese society in the context of full peace.

The Syrian regime cares first and foremost for its survival. If ushering in a new relationship with the United States and signing a peace treaty with Israel enhances its prospects for longevity, it will go that route – even at the expense of Iran and Hezbollah. If such a deal is not forthcoming, Syria will continue to play the spoiler role to the best of its considerable abilities.

It is important that a new US administration work with Israel and our Arab allies to concoct a strategy that can pry Syria away from Iran. Despite the longevity of their alliance, the two regimes – one secular, the other theocratic – have little philosophically in common other than their shared insecurities concerning Israel and the West.

Thankfully, Syria appears open to a grand bargain, including perhaps one that could stabilise Lebanon without compromising that country’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.

(Theodore H. Kattouf is a former US ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and Syria. He is currently the president and CEO of AMIDEAST (www.amideast.org) and is on the Middle East board of Search for Common Ground. This article was written for the Common Ground News Service.)

UN Will Continue to Probe Syria's Secret Activities, U.S. Says
2008-07-24 14:45:58.480 (New York)
By Caroline Alexander

July 24 (Bloomberg) — Gregory Schulte, the U.S. ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that United Nations inspectors will continue to investigate Syria's clandestine nuclear activities until the Syrian government cooperates.

He spoke to reporters in London today.  On the Syrian site that was destroyed in an Israeli air raid in September:

“It was a nuclear reactor that was very similar to the Pyongang reactor that the North Koreans are now dissembling. It's a reactor that wasn't well connected to the energy grid and is well designed to produce plutonium.

“The Syrians went to enormous lengths to hide this facility as they were building it.

“At one point, they realized it looked just a little bit like Pyongang on the outside, so they built a false ceiling and false walls around it to try and hide it, and went to enormous lengths to try and hide it after it was destroyed, including building a new building on top of it.'' On what happened when inspectors traveled to Syria in June to look at the site:  

“Inspectors were allowed to go to look at the site where the nuclear reactor was being built but they were not allowed to go to other sites which they requested visiting.

“IAEA inspectors did what they are very good at doing — they asked lots of hard questions and the Syrians weren't prepared to answer them, so the investigation of Syria's clandestine activities continues.

“We anticipate that there will be a report to the board of governors in September.''

On Syria's choices:

“Syria can do this the hard way or the easy way. The easy way is that if they act like Libya and say ok, we have been caught, here is our program, come in and look at it and we will explain it to you.

“The hard way is if they act like Iran, deny access, not answer questions, then like Iran they will find that they will be on our agenda for some time to come.''

Damascus Exchange May Take NYSE Technology, Chairman Says
2008-07-24 By Nadim Issa

July 24 (Bloomberg) — The Damascus Securities Exchange is in talks with NYSE Euronext, the word's largest stock exchange, about installing its trading platform, said DSE Chairman Rateb Al Shallah.

“I am heading to France in September to complete our negotiations with Euronext about installing their platform to our bourse to start our activities in early 2009,'' Al Shallah, said today in a telephone interview from Damascus.

The DSE will start trading in early 2009 even if it fails to agree a deal with NYSE Euronext or Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. because the exchange is in talks with another provider, he said, without identifying the company.

Jonas Rodny a spokesman for Nasdaq OMX in Stockholm, declined to comment.

Helena Cobban at Just World News writes: "Yesterday I was able to post onto my blog a fairly full write-up of my notes from the July 25 event at USIP in which Kim Kagan, Charles Knight, Colin Kahl and Rend al-Rahim (Francke) discussed the extremely important topic of timeframes (and in a subsidiary way, missions) for the US troop deployment in Iraq…..

The opportunity to hammer out a grand compromise with Iran is there, but Bush seems determined to prevent talks that could advance vital US interests
Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett in the National Interest, here, via WPR via FLC.

"…In Lebanon, Bosnia and Afghanistan too, Tehran did much—not all, but much—of what was asked of it. For example, in official U.S.-Iranian negotiations over Afghanistan—in which one of us, Hillary Mann Leverett, participated from 2001 to 2003—the Iranians deported hundreds of suspected al-Qaeda operatives who had fled Afghanistan, warned that insufficient attention to postconflict stabilization would leave pockets of Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters to reemerge later, delivered important regional warlords to the bargaining table to support creation of a pro-American, post-Taliban political order under President Hamid Karzai, and dissuaded anti-American warlords from acting as “spoilers.”

The Effects of Rising Oil and Food Prices on the Middle East
By Paul Rivlin
Tel Aviv Notes: Editor: Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, July 24, 2008

Over the last 12 months, the international price of oil doubled, while in the twelve month period ending on March 1, 2008, the price of food, measured by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s composite index, rose by 50%. These developments have had major and differential effects on the economies of the Middle East, including changes in economic growth rates and a serious acceleration of inflation.
 
Oil prices and revenues

Middle East oil and gas exporters are expected to earn $830 billion in 2008, an increase of over $300 billion (or almost 60%) on 2007. This is due to the rise in the price of oil rather than increases in production. As a result, the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates  – are awash with funds. In contrast to the situation after the price rises of 1973 and 1979-80, they have been using the huge surpluses more carefully, and as their own banking systems have become more mature, a larger share of funds has been retained in the region. Despite this, they have also become major players on the international scene, acquiring foreign assets and partly helping to finance the enormous US balance of payments deficit. At the end of 2006, according to the Institute for International Finance, the GCC states possessed identified foreign reserves of $434 billion and unidentified reserves of $283 billion, a total of $717 billion. The estimates for 2007 and forecasts for 2008 suggest that Middle East oil producers will have balance of payments current account surpluses of almost $300 billion and $420 billion, respectively. The GCC states alone had a surplus of $227 billion in 2007 and is forecast to have a surplus of $332 billion in 2008. This implies that by the end of 2008 GCC total foreign reserves could reach $1.3 trillion. …..
 
The economic situation in the Middle East is ironic: oil-rich countries are now experiencing huge increases in income. These now exceed the high levels of the mid-1970s and early 1980s in real terms and in 2008 may even exceed them in per capita terms. At the same time, non-oil producers and small oil producers in the region are facing soaring import costs for oil as well as food, with serious macro-economic and distributional consequences. The sensitivity of these economies to the rise in food prices reflects the failures of their development strategies over many years.

The Middle Eastern Marriage Crisis – Brookings Institute