with all due respect QN, who cares? does any body with a grain of integrity trust that balding old senile fox anymore?

seriously, he needs to quit.

Offended habibi,

Your point is, of course, well taken. But the reason I found it newsworthy is that Jumblatt is a bellwether of Lebanese politics. Does he possess any less integrity than 90% of the politicians on the scene? Not really… he’s just quicker at figuring out the angles.

So, if one wants to know which way the political winds are blowing for the time being, one could do worse than watching Jumblatt.

I read the interview and this is exactly what the Harvard Students who visited Lebanon came out from meeting with him. He is Cameleon Pretzel that is essentially talking non sense. Arabism, Palestine, Shia, Sunni, Druze, Iran, coalition, opposition have all been made into a vegetable lentil soup from the Chouf mountains.

The contortions that he goes through are simply nauseating.

QN,

Thank you for the useful piece. Although I agree with Offended and Observer. He is finished as far as Syria is concerned, and I do not see him setting foot in Syria at all. since the rule is hereditary in out part of the world, it will be his son Timour, who will be at the spot light.

Yet, who knows … Aoun once used bullets and threatened to send missiles into Damascus, and soon he will be welcomed there!

Averroes

Exactly.

If Aoun, who once tried to kill Hafiz al-Asad (ask Alex for the details) can find his way back into Syria’s good graces, I’m quite confident that Jumblatt will make himself useful again.

But who cares anyway? I’m less interested in Jumblatt himself than in the course he is trying to chart for the rest of his (current) allies.

As he insinuated quite bluntly: regime change is not the name of the game anymore. Let’s cut our losses and recognize that we achieved enough already (Syria is out of Lebanon and negotiating with Israel today, instead of handpicking our “elected” officials), and get on with the next challenges, whatever they may be.

Alex,

Per QN’s reference, could you give us details (with sources if possible) about Aoun trying to fill Hafiz al-Asad? I didn’t know that he expressly tried to kill him.

QN,

I certainly would like to see it happen. Hariri and the Saudis have climbed a very high tree. It would be amusing to watch them climb down. I wonder how they’re going to sell it to the angry masses.

Do you remember what the late Flemoun Wahbe used to say?

الجماهير الغفورة
(the forgiving masses)
بدل الجماهير الغفيرة
(instead of the numerous masses; a play on similar sounding words in Arabic)

So, on second thought. I think good marketing can sell anything to anyone.

Averroes

It won’t be too hard. The masses in Lebanon are not angry so much as they are fed up with paralysis and chaos. As long as the Syrian hand is not heavy in Lebanese politics, the ordinary person will be happy enough to see economic growth, prosperity, and the gradual bolstering of the state at the expense of non-state actors and institutions.

Even in the darkest days, I think the average M14er was not advocating regime change as an end in itself so much as a means to a different end: namely, the protection of Lebanon from “regional” policies that were not in its own interests.

Nidal,

Unfortunately the link seems to have disappeared.

Here is the story (you’ll have to rely on my memory):

In 2003 or 2004 the American army captured Iraqi intelligence offices where they found documents including a letter from Aoun to Saddam (his anti-Assad ally at the time) asking him to buy a couple of missiles that he can manage to place in France near the French Swiss border close enough to hit Assad’s civilian plane.

Now … I am starting to think … could it be possible that the Americans wanted to make it difficult for Aoun to become a Syrian ally at the time they released this story?

Alex,

I was thinking that he might have threatened to kill him during his “War of Liberation” in 1989-90, not in 2003 or 2004. That’s news to me.

Assuming the story is true, did he write this letter before or after having successfully lobbied Congress to vote the “Syria Accountability and Lebanon Sovereignty Restoration Act” (in december 2003)?

Qifa Nabki,

Do you think that it is possible that these types of actions will weaken Jumblatt’s hold on the position of representative of the Druze, and possibly strengthen the position of Talal Arslan? Especially considering that Arslan is now a minister?

Also, more generally, do you know whether Druze in Lebanon are generally sympathetic to Hizbullah? Was Jumblatt’s phase as the attack dog for M14 popular among the Druze?

Or maybe it just doesn’t matter because his position is too solid…

Nidal — I assume that’s what he meant. I don’t think Saddam was in a position to send missiles to anyone in 2003/2004. And even if he had been, Hafez al-Assad rarely left Qardaha after 2000…

Alex — could it be possible that the Americans wanted to make it difficult for Aoun to become a Syrian ally at the time they released this story?

In 2003-2004, I can’t imagine they were very worried about that. Or am I missing something?

Qifa Nabki & Joe M. — I’m not sure that Jumblatt is necessarily much better/faster at reading the political winds, I just think he has less room to indulge in ideology than most other zuama. The Druze community is too small and vulnerable to fight the tide, and Jumblat understands that; he always has to make his position valuable to someone, to maintain influence, since he isn’t a heavyweight in himself due to lack of numbers among his supporters. (Hence the point man function in M14.)

Anyway, I don’t believe in Talal Arslan ever emerging as a significant rival as long as Walid J. is alive, and barring civil war and such — a split Druze community would doom itself to political oblivion, and I think everyone gets that. Same with his son taking over: not while he’s a political nobody, unless absolutely necessary. What I think could ultimately weaken Jumblatt among his supporters is not that he will shift sides; that’s his expected MO. Rather, the problem would be if he sticks to the wrong side, or shifts too late (which he may have done this time) and thereby squanders influence and security for the whole community. Apart from that and dying, he seems secure enough with his core support.

Alle and Nidal

Sorry for the confusing way I wrote about that story.

Hafez Assad passed away (from a natural cause) June 10th 2000… three month after Aoun wanted to assassinate him.

The alleged Aoun letter to Saddam took place just before the March 2000 Geneva Summit with President Clinton.

http://www.meib.org/articles/0004_me1.htm

The letter was discovered four years later in 2004 (if I remember correctly) by American troops in Iraq when they went through captured documents and files of Iraqi intelligence.

Jumblatt is a survivor. The druze community in Lebanon is small, weak and divided. Jumblatt has always tried to be on the side of the winners and the strongest.
Bush leaving from the kitchen door, Hezbollah achieving its goals (among them liberating a Druze resistant) despite the US and Lebanese government antagonistic moves, the 14 Mars coalition having lost their credibility after the Doha agreement, Syria showing its resilience and political savvyness in dealing with Israel to liberate the Golan where there is a sizeable population of Druzes. It is clear that the wind is now blowing in favor of the Opposition and the Resistance.
The druze religion is not recognized by Iran as it is not part of Ahl Al Ketab, therefore Jumblatt can’t jump in Iran’s laps and he is taking an understanding stance on Nasrallah religious allegeance.
Hariri, another 14 March pillar, went to Najaf Iraq alst week to visit the secretive and influential Iranian Ayatollah Sistani. Maybe Hariri will visit Iran soon? Are we seeing a more pragmatic stance in lebanese leaders toward Iran and the US?

Alex — OK, that late? Thanks for telling us!

Why Discuss — I don’t think the Druze religion matters at all in that. Hizbullah is a special case, but Iran supports plenty of non-Twelver Shia groups for reasons of state interest. (Hamas, for one.)

About Samir Quntar, there was an interesting commentary on Jumblatt’s reaction to his release by Michael Young on the MESH blog.

Why-D

I think we are in fact seeing more pragmatism. But that’s helped along by the fact that the Iranians and Americans themselves are being more pragmatic in their dealings with each other.

Joe, I think Jumblatt’s position is secure for life. In a country that still worships za’aamah to a great extent, he is the senior za’im.

As for the Druze and Hizbullah… who knows? We are entering a ‘normal’ period again, to judge the staying power of various movements. It is not a state of war or a state of entrenched paralysis… it is a state in which people can make compromises, reach across the aisle, etc. And it is, importantly, a pre-election state. So I think that we are going to see limited flexibility by everyone. March 14 is already changing its tone; and Hizbullah is already speaking about “national defense strategies”… we’ll have to see whether there are any concrete changes.

ALLE

Iran does recognize only ahl al ketab( sunnis, shia, christians, jews, Zoroastrians and all relgions that have open books of worship ) They do not recognize secret religions ( Bahai, Druze and others). I think it matters a lot for Iran as they are highly suspicious of the Bahai in Iran, they tolerate them but would never give a Bahai ( or a druze, if they had any) any post of responsibility. Jumblatt knows that and would never approach Iran, even though he would really benefit from it.

QN

Hezboallah has always talked about National defense strategy, that was one of the key request to consider the fate of the weapons. 14 Mars is backing quietly on all their positions. Hariri visiting an iranian shia high ranking cleric is one more sign of the collape of the 14 Mars coalition whose ideology was based on focusing and demonizing Iran and Syria and not on any constructive idea of solving Lebanon problems.

ARABISM = RACISM

The global virus of racist Arabism has claimed/claims millions of victims, it includes:

Kurds (under Saddam or Syria), Berbers, Jews (inside Israel – the genocide campaign since the massacre in 1929 by the Mufti Haj Amin Al Husseini until today, or in the Arab world or on ‘Arab street’ in Europe, etc.), Africans (genocide in Sudan, oppression in Egypt, Slavery in Mauritania, etc.)…