Turkey's Environment Minister, Veysel Eroglu

In a change of heart, Turkey said Thursday it would strive to increase the amount of water it releases to Syria and Iraq through the historic Tigris and Euphrates rivers but warned that it too was suffering from a severe drought.

Hours earlier, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz had said his country was already too overstretched with water and power demands and could not raise the flow of water any further….

Turkey’s environment minister, Veysel Eroglu, said his country would try to release as much water as possible over its legal obligation of 500 cubic meters per second….  “But our own capabilities are limited.” Eroglu would not say how much more water Turkey could allow its neighbors…

( By SUZAN FRASER, ANKARA, Turkey (AP))

Turkey Says More Water For Iraq, Syria Is Unlikely

The Euphrates is Drying Up

(AP) A water rights battle over the historic Tigris and Euphrates rivers simmered Thursday, as Iraq and Syria appealed for increased water flows to cope with severe drought but Turkey said it was already too overstretched.

Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said Turkey’s southeast region was also suffering from low rainfall and drought but the country was still releasing more water than it was legally obligated to its neighbors out of humanitarian concerns.

He said Turkey was releasing on average 517 cubic meters per second instead of the required 500 cubic meters per second, sacrificing its own energy needs in the process.

“Water isn’t abundant in Turkey,” Yildiz said on the sidelines of a meeting between Turkey, Iraq and Syria to discuss water sharing. “We cannot top this amount any further.”

Turkey is advocating using water more efficiently and sustainably through joint projects instead of increasing water flows.

Thursday’s meeting was called to discuss setting up joint stations to measure water volume at the rivers, as well as exchanging more information about climate and drought and creating joint education programs for more sustainable water management.

Drought-stricken Iraq has accused its upstream neighbors Turkey and Syria of taking too much from the rivers and their tributaries. Below-average rainfall and insufficient water in the Euphrates and Tigris rivers have left Iraq parched for a second straight year, wrecking swaths of farm land and threatening drinking water supplies.

The rivers’ low water flows are caused in part by the construction of dams in Turkey and Syria.

“The water situation in Iraq in the past two years has not been good at all,” Iraq’s Minister of Water Resources Abdul-Latif Jamal Rashid said. “We are suffering from a serious water shortage. Rainfall has decreased by 40 percent. The drought has intensified.”

“This month Iraq will require more water from Turkey and Syria and we believe that this will not be denied,” he said.

Turkey’s Environment Minister Veysel Eroglu said in opening remarks that Turkey was sacrificing energy production to release water from dams and alleviate water shortages downstream.

“The Euphrates and Tigris basins are extremely arid,” Eroglu said. “We are relinquishing our energy needs to make sure that Iraq and Syria are not left without water.”

Nader al-Bunni, Syria’s irrigation minister, said his country was also letting more water flow into Iraq than required by agreements.

“We understand Iraq’s need for more water and we are letting 69 percent of the waters in the Euphrates for the bretheren people of Iraq. We have increased the amount from 58 percent to 69 percent,” he said.

Iraq, Syria huddle over water crisis
Published: Aug. 20, 2009 at 1:44 PM

Amid a worsening Middle East drought, Turkey’s cut-off of Euphrates River water to Iraq and Syria was high on the agenda when Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Syrian President Bashar Assad met here this week.

Water supply, always an important element in this largely arid region, has become a strategic issue for Iraq and Syria since Turkey reduced the flow of the Euphrates to build a series of hydroelectric dams in the impoverished Anatolia region in the southeast.

Four years into a drought, Iraq’s woes have been compounded by what some officials call an “environmental catastrophe.”

A plague of unusually severe dust storms is drying up riverbeds and marshes and turning arable land into desert in an area known through the ages as the Fertile Crescent, where the first civilizations arose.

Agricultural production has plunged to all-time lows, and Iraq, beset by political feuding and sectarian bloodshed after six years of insurgency, now has to import 80 percent of its food.

The Euphrates and the Tigris, both of which rise in Turkey, are among the largest rivers in the Middle East. They flow through Iraq, where they join near Basra in the south to form the Shatt al-Arab waterway that runs into the Persian Gulf.

The flow of the Tigris, which runs through Syria, has not been particularly affected by Turkey’s ambitious $32 billion Southeast Anatolia Project, known as GAP after its Turkish name Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi.

But that does not diminish the fearful impact of the reduction in the Euphrates flow that has soured relations between Turkey, Syria and Iraq, which in the past have competed for regional leadership.

The Damascus summit did not announce any agreement between Iraq and Syria on how to get Turkey to increase the Euphrates flow. But Maliki and Assad formed a “high-level strategic cooperation council.”

It will be headed by the countries’ premiers and will meet every six months to cover foreign affairs, defense, finance, economic development and other key issues, such as water resources.

Iraqi Water Minister Latif Rashid, who accompanied Maliki to Damascus, last week accused Ankara of breaking a promise to increase the flow of the Euphrates.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had said earlier that Ankara had fulfilled a pledge to boost water flow from 570 cubic meters per second, about half the 2000 level of 950 cubic meters a second, to 715 for July, August and September.

Baghdad claims that instead the flow rate was reduced to around only 250 cubic meters a second, one-quarter of the minimum required by Iraq for irrigation.

Under GAP, Turkey is building 22 dams and huge reservoirs, with 19 hydroelectric power plants, along the fabled rivers in nine of Turkey’s poorest provinces.

The $32 billion project is the centerpiece of Turkey’s development plans. It was started in the 1980s and is scheduled for completion in 2013.

It will generate 7,400 megawatts of electricity and 22 percent of Turkey’s energy, and irrigate 4.2 million acres of land for crops, an economic transformation that should turn a virtual dustbowl into a major granary.

The water issue is becoming an increasingly important political hot potato between Iraq and Turkey, its northern neighbor.

Relations between them had improved after Saddam Hussein was toppled in the U.S.-led invasion of March 2003. But plans by Iraq’s restive Kurds to establish their own state in northeastern Iraq have badly strained relations.

Turkey fears that will galvanize its own rebellious Kurdish minority in their two-decade-old armed struggle for autonomy.

Indeed, Turkey’s promise to release more Euphrates water for its drought-ravaged neighbor was accompanied by Baghdad announcing plans to crack down on Kurdish rebels on the border with Turkey.

But that is easier said than done. Maliki needs the Kurds as allies as he struggles to forge post-Saddam Iraq into a federal state at a time when U.S. forces are being withdrawn.

Moving against the Iraqi Kurds’ brethren would put that vital alliance in severe jeopardy at a critical time in Iraq’s reconstruction. Turkey is also one of Iraq’s main trading partners.

Ankara’s strategic leverage is magnified by the fact that one-fifth of Iraq’s oil exports from its northern oil fields around Kirkuk, 400,000 barrels per day, run through twin pipelines to the Turkish port of Ceyhan in the Eastern Mediterranean.

This post included two short essays written by Steven Barbar. I have edited them slightly. Here is the email note Mr. Barbar included with his stories.

Dr. Jishwa Landis

It was a pleasure talking to you over the phone the other day. In reference to our conversation, Pls find attached few of my writing, feelings and impressions after 40 years of absence from my home town Damascus. I stayed all that period in USA. Now, I am half American, half Syrian and lost between these two halves. My dream is to bridge the gap between the ordinary people both in America and Syria.

Best Regards,
Steven Barbar

Merchant of Death
by Steven Barbar
Syria Comment, Saturday 29 August 2009

Abu Samer is a middle aged, well to do business man who trawls the lower depths of Damascus’ less fortunate neighborhoods. He looks for young men and women who are facing hard times. There is money to be made from misfortune.

Damascus, although it seems isolated from the neighboring turmoil, is not. Dark undercurrents connect it to the violence in Iraq and Lebanon. These undercurrents are veins of gold for Abu Samer, who mines them for a fast buck.

Everywhere you look, you see dark faces shrouded with pain. Often they conceal hearts that are aimless and confused. They belong to people in need, but who often do not know what they are looking for or that they may end up as chopped meat in a car bomb that explodes near a sidewalk café.

Two years ago I met one such unfortunate sole. His name was Mohammed, he made a fast five thousand USD, paid his family’s debt, and provided them airfare to Australia. He went to Iraq and blew himself up, killing several Americans along with himself. Now he is a martyr and lives in heaven with seventy virgins.

It all began in my neighborhood barber shop; Mohammed was the handyman and apprentice. He swept up the hair from under the chairs, carried tea, and did what he was told. Ahmed was cutting my hair. Abu Samer was in a very heavy conversation with Mohammed about job opportunities in Syria.
Mohammed was a newcomer to Damascus. He had come from southern Lebanon. It was only shortly following the showdown between Israel and Hezbollah, which had left his region in ruins. Everything he heard from Abu Samer sounded like sugar and spice to him.

At the end of their conversation, they shook hands. Abu Samer got up, pushed a bill into Mohammed’s hand after paying for his haircut, and left. Mohammed was on cloud nine. He told me that he would be working on the trucking line between Damascus and Baghdad; supplying humanitarian items to the many victims of the American invasion.

Abu Samer gave him the business card of a real estate office in the neighborhood; it was run by a man called Abu Shaker whom I knew very well. I asked him if I could come along, he said it was OK.
A few days later Abu Shaker came back from an out of town trip. We met at his office. It was a huge store front with big chairs lined up against the walls.

A young boy was serving tea. A couple of girls were talking to him and on the other side some young men were involved in a heavy conversation about how to run the aggressors out of Iraq.
Abu Shaker waved to us, “I will be a couple of minutes.” he said. Bidding goodbye to the girls, he gave them a small paper with an address and a word of recommendation. “Ask for Um Hassan. She will take good care of you,” He told them.

Later on, I found out she was the biggest madam in town.

I admit, sometimes I stick my nose where it doesn’t belong. For instance how do you explain the big foreign cars that park and double park in front of the office every day? Better yet his own car is an oversize, late model BMW, with a Saudi license plate. It is fit for a king.

Finally he joined us. Sipping tea, and smoking non-filter cigarettes, he flashed his brown teeth when he smiled.

“Abu Samer told me everything I need to know. I want you to meet a very good friend of mine. He owns a big trucking company. He will take good care of you. There is plenty of money so you won’t be poor again.” Abu Shaker told Mohammed, “You will be travelling to Beirut, Amman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, you name it, so be ready for a life full of adventure.”

He turned to me asking if I needed to work. I made sure that he didn’t know about me being an American; it would have created a lot of problems for me, Mohammed and Ahmed the barber. I thanked Abu Shaker and told him that I would be back some time soon.

The following day Mohammed went to Amman, he became a porter and a handyman on a big rig. His family facing the hardship of the recent showdown with Israel decided to move away from it all, all the way to Australia.

A month later I went back home to the US. One day I received a letter from my nephew with a newspaper clipping in it that mourned the death of the martyr Mohammed who was blown up along with six American marines and their Humvee.

Seven distraught families will thank you Abu Samer and Abu Shaker.

It is common sense and supply and demand. When the decision was made that Saddam Hussein had to be removed to keep the world safe, Mr. Bush opened a can of worms.

While the Americans advanced on Baghdad, Saddam’s armies were running in the other direction with loads of arms and weapons. They all crossed the borders towards Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
They are now finding their way back to Iraq, igniting all kinds of ethnic strife. It provides a booming business for Abu Shaker and his ilk, who can fulfill the dreams of some and nightmares of others. There is money to be made from misfortune. The death of six marines paid for a new life for Mohammed’s family. Perhaps President Bush was correct when he insisted that the US military could drain the swamp of Middle Eastern misery?

Flash Back

A New York City morning is one of the darkest and coldest of all the world city mornings.

It was about seven. A lot of people were rushing to work; they were not completely awake.

I was scheduled to have an MRI test that morning to determine the advance of my lymphoma and to plan a treatment that could make it or break it.

The statue of Liberty stood on the other side of the Harbor greeting new comers. The state island is freely crossing the icy waters of the east river. A coffee vendor was brewing his potion to help people overcome the hardship of the day.

I was standing right there in the middle of it watching life all around me wondering what I will come of my own.

I was diagnosed with CNS Lymphoma (Central Nerves System) which could be quiet deadly. It looks like I got from my own mother. She died when I was only twelve with the same disease.

I was on the ninth floor in the Dazian building of New York Beth Israel Hospital. They call it “Death Pavilion” because it is assigned for the terminally ill cancer patients.

Nurse Jane showed up. She just started her shift.

“Good morning how was your night? I hope you feel better,” she said while tucking me in.

“Sorry, no coffee for you this morning because you have a big test and I have orders , no food or drink until all is over” .

I smiled at he but I was still disappointed. I really needed a good cup of coffee that morning.

She checked all my vital signs . She wrote some notes on my chart. She smiled “I will be back ” she said taping my cheeks gently .

A short while after, a team of doctors came in and asked me how I felt. They looked at my chart and wished me luck with the MRI.

One of them was a medical student from my home town , Damascus -Syria . He joked with me in Arabic in order to shock them. I laid back, frustrated, angry, and desperate. I really did not want to die

“Ready old man?” Nurse Jane proclaimed cheerfully as she walked in. “I have decided to wheel you in there myself” She said with a big assuring smile on her face.

The transport team plopped me into a wheelchair, and she pushed me down the hallway. She greeted everybody with her nice personality as we proceeded down the hallway, which I admired very much.

As a matter of a fact, I really had a crash on her. She was short and fat, but she was beautiful both on the inside and out. We Middle Eastern men are accustomed to look at American women as sex objects. But after being with them for a while, you come to realize that they just as human beings, as you are, trying to get by .

We went to the radiation section on the third floor. A team of doctors and technicians were waiting for me. I was undressed covered with sheets. I was put on a stretcher and pushed into the MIR room.

Everybody was very pleasant. They knew what to do which boosted my spirits in a way. One of the doctors was my Syrian Friend. He shook my hand and told me he was praying for me, I held his and thanked him for taking care of me and his concern.

Finally, it was time to fix me up for the test. They laid me outand took the necessary measurements to push in and out with light beams marking my body’s objects of interest. Then it was rock and roll.

Everybody left the room. lights were dimed. A big cylinder started to rotate on top of me. I was sliding in a tube that felt like being in a coffin. It was very noisy and loud. Suddenly there was a strong vibration and a termer that felt like explosions. Lights flashed from all directions accompanied with violent shakes. It was very hot and humid. I started to sweat , then , I was somewhere else back in time and place .

On a very early day of June some 40 years ago, I was stationed on top of a hill overlooking the Golan Heights and the occupied Palestine when we were caught with our pants down.

The Israeli forces surprised us. They went up in the air. They took over the skies and the rest was history. We lost that battle. It was part of a never ending story that goes on for millenniums.

As suddenly as it started, I came back to reality. Everything came to a sudden stop. I was wet, trembling, and terrified. They pulled me out and comforted me. “Are you Ok? They asked. “I am OK,” I reassured them. I just had a flash back of something from my past. I told them about how I had served in the Six Day War and that it sometimes had a psycho effect on me when I would have flashbacks. They listened in amazement.

They were all like clay statues. Then one of them stepped forward and said: “I am Dr. Bernstein, chief oncologist. Can you tell me exactly where you were during the war? I told him that I was on foot hills of Mount Harmon near a town called Banias.

He smiled and said:” Do you mean that you were on “Tal 63”. To my surprise, it was the secret military code name of my location. I asked what his unit was since he knew mine. I assumed that he was one of us.

“I was not there. But I was there.” He answered pointing his finger upward to the sky.

Suddenly it dawned on me that he was an Israeli.

I stood up hot, wet and naked in front of everyone and rammed my hand toward him,” you son of bitch. You were shooting at me,” I exclaimed.

“Obviously, I wasn’t aiming too well.” he answered.

In a state of shock, I opened my arms; we hugged for a long time.

Everybody around up clapped their hands with tears of relief in their eyes. Since then, we have become fast friends. What a strange world …

The End

The Syrian Public Sector, Corruption, Taxation, and Government Services”
By Ehsani
Syria Comment, August 21, 2009

I have made it a habit to write about my observations following every summer trip to Syria. As usual, I spent most of my time in the city of Aleppo. It is always hard to write something new or informative about a country that most of us seem to love and follow very closely.

I will again spare the readers any mention of geopolitics. I will instead focus on the issue of the size of the public sector, corruption, bribery, taxation and the provision of basic government services. As I will detail below, I think that the above set of issues are highly interrelated.

Bribery is a way of life in Syria.

Though Syria is no exception, one cannot but be struck by how widespread bribery is at every facet of life in the country. Bribery is used to get ahead in securing basic government services. It is used to gain a preferential treatment in the armed services. It is used to get government loans. It is used to lower import duties at customs. It is used to wave traffic violations. It is used at passport issuing offices. Indeed, one is hard pressed to think of a single place where it cannot be used.

That bribery is so widespread should not come as a surprise to anyone. Most visitors to Syria and other developing countries have experienced this phenomena first hand.

But why is bribery so widespread and why does the government seem powerless to stop it?

During the 1950’s and 1960’s, General Motors (GM) and the United Auto Workers (UAW) established a pattern of agreeing to ever-better wages and benefits. The auto company never imagined that these agreements will one day crush the company as the burden of paying for these benefits took an ever increasing share of the company’s revenues and profits. Its retiree health-care burden alone was equivalent to more than double its market capitalization by September 2007. Two years later, the company of course went bankrupt.

The Baath party commitments to its citizens since the mid 1960’s are not too dissimilar to those made by GM to its employees. What seemed like reasonable and honorable commitments some 40 years ago can grow into a monster that few could have predicted when those commitments were initially made.

As the Baath party embarked on supporting a policy of large public enterprises and expansive subsidies, few envisioned that the country’s population will double every 22 years. Few also wanted to admit that governments cannot run businesses profitably and that the public sector will suffer steady losses that will drain the state’s treasury for eternity.

The state is fully aware that it pays its employees inadequately and that even mother Theresa would accept a bribe were she a Syrian government functionary. Based on my own research, most public sector employees and civil servants make between SYP 7,000 and SYP 16,000 a month ($150-$345 range). The majority of these workers also happen to be less well educated and have large families. Having at least four children or more is common. A median salary of $250 per month therefore needs to support a total of six family members on average. Due to religious reasons and lack of both education and skills, most wives cannot support the family income. The majority of these people rent their homes for an average of $130 a month. This leaves $120 for six people to live on for a month. Even with the generous subsidies program in place, this is nearly impossible to do. Even if this family decides to live on falafel sandwiches for breakfast, lunch and dinner, it will be broke before the month ends. The head of the household must look for other means to augment his miserly income. Most work second jobs. Most also accept bribes from private citizens.

Again based on my own estimate, a more appropriate salary level is close to three times the present levels. However, the government does not have the financial resources to increase salaries by 300%. Upon retirement, state employees earn 75% of their base salaries till they die. Such a proposed salary jump will cause a massive drain on budget for years to come.

While salaries have been increased steadily over the years, they remain far below the required levels given the recent jump in prices. Real purchasing power has fallen despite rising salaries.

The government cannot raise salaries more because the size of the public sector is too big.
There are reportedly close to 2 million people on government payrolls. Tripling the median salary of the average employee means that the state needs to find an extra $ 1 billion a month in revenues.

Instead of doing that, the government has implicitly decided to keep things the way they are and to let citizens pay state employees directly through a widespread bribery system to which it turns a blind eye in most cases.

While the state coffers save $1 billion a month by restricting salaries, they lose many more billions by turning a blind eye to corruption.

Lost revenues from import duties and real estate taxes:

For years, importers have avoided paying duties on their products. Government employees assigned to customs have made huge sums of money turning a blind eye to banned imports or to the true value of the worth or legal imports. Bill of lading documents are often forged. Containers are not inspected by customs officials for a price.

Most of this has taken place because some of the government’s import duties have been outrageously high. This has enticed large importers to agree to pay the severely underpaid custom officials vast sums to turn a blind eye. Most have happily obliged. The state coffers suffered. Government income is being diverted directly into the pockets of badly paid officials.

Another area where the state has suffered from a severe revenue shortage concerns real estate. This is due to the way in which the government values residential and commercial real estate for tax purposes.

A close friend of mine just bought an apartment for his son for SYP 11 million. When it came to paying taxes on it, the government valued the property at SYP 350,000. Given the massive rise in real estate values across the country for the past decade, think of the opportunity cost and the missed tax revenues that the state could have collected following the boom in real estate values. Instead, government employees see no problem assigning real estate values that would have existed in 1960 before they tax most properties.

Proposals:

When it comes to the above issue of real estate taxes, the immediate solution is for the government to outsource the valuation of real estate to a private company that would help it assign real market values to real estate so that they can be taxed appropriately. Information on how much taxes each household pays should be made public. Any citizen should be allowed to find out what his neighbor pays in taxes. This will eliminate any chance that the private assessors are being bribed themselves. This initiative is likely to have two major advantages. It will bring in an enormous amount of much needed revenues. It will also make it less advantageous for the public to park their money in real estate now that it will be taxed more appropriately. The freed up funds will be redirected to investments in more productive sectors that may help employment and so on. This recommended real-estate tax collection must be geared towards the wealthy and less towards the poor. House values below say SYP 2 million will be exempt from the new valuation system.

While on the issue of housing, it is critical that the municipalities accelerate their plans to make more land available for residential use. This is referred locally as land that is included in the “tanzeem”. Currently, large areas of land directly across from city parameters cannot be used by developers to create new housing units and alleviate the pressures on house prices. The government simply does not have the resources to bring the basic services of water and electricity to these new locations. This results in empty “agricultural” lots right outside key city centers. Faster development of such land and their inclusion in the “tanzeem” will likely ease the price pressures inside the city parameters and make housing more affordable to more citizens.

When it comes to import duties, the government must streamline the process and lower those duties to levels that make it less pressing for the importer to cheat. Some items are still taxed at 75% of their value. This is giving a license to the importer to use the power of bribery to avoid the abnormally high duties. Again state coffers end up as the loser.

As to the appropriate level of salaries that can check the widespread use of bribery, the government must start to shed state assets and embark on privatizing the none-essential industries first. Only when the size of the public sector is brought down to a more manageable level can the state afford to pay its employees an appropriate level of compensation. Also, only when state employees are paid close to triple their current salaries can the government credibly prosecute those that accept bribes after the new salary adjustment.

Smoking:

Like most people in developing countries, Syrians seem to smoke a lot. A pack of cigarettes sells for around $1. In contrast, they top $9 in places like New York. Taxing Syrian smokers more seems to make sense till you find out that most tobacco products in the country are smuggled (the duty free is available too). In order to cut down on smoking, a presidential decree was ordered that prohibits smoking in public buildings. Sadly, this law is not being followed. Not so much by the citizens but by the government employees themselves. During numerous visits to government buildings, I was struck by how many state employees were smoking while they had the note describing the Presidential decree right above their heads. For the record, a recent study in Iraq found that smoking kills an average of 55 citizens a day. The Iraqi government banned smoking in public buildings and announced that violators will face stiff fines of as much as $4300. Given that the price of a pack in Iraq is as little as 25 cents, the new fine will be the equivalent of paying for 17,200 packs of cigarettes. It will be interesting to monitor how this law gets implemented.

Privatization:

While the word has a dirty connotation in a socialist driven ideology, its economic merits are indisputable. The Syrian state has no business running a tire, beer or glass manufacturing business. Contrary to what most officials promise, most state industries will continue to lose money for ever. This red ink is putting a massive strain on the budget. Such monies could have gone to improving education, healthcare and infrastructure. Putting our heads in the sand and sticking to a losing economic order is no solution. The monster of corruption and failing state services was created by party officials who espoused socialism. They originally believed socialism would serve the poor. Instead, the exact opposite has happened. The wealthy and well connected got richer at the expense of the poor. Indeed, Syria’s so-called socialist system has benefited the wealthy and powerful far more than capitalism did.

Most that resist privatization do so because they worry about the millions of state workers who will suddenly become unemployed if the public sector is dismantled. But the price of maintaining the million or so superfluous government employees is the impoverishment of many more Syrians who receive inadequate government services, such as electricity, education, and healthcare. Defenders of socialism also seem to think that the economy is static, and those that may get laid off will not be hired by a private sector that is likely to fill the void once the state privatizes.

The only real solution for Syria’s failing state services is that the country’s leadership supports a deliberate, thoughtful and transparent approach to privatization. One industry must be chosen to serve as a pilot project. The state may even decide to ask the new buyers to keep the current employees on its books for say 10 years (the state will receive less price of course).

Why not start with beer? While the state makes both Al-shareq and Barada brands, I don’t recall anyone buying these products. Instead, imported Lebanese, Turkish and European brands seem to be the preferred choice. Why shouldn’t the state put up the beer making business for sale to the private sector after it creates a privatization commission that will be tasked with this pilot project? If successful, the initiative can spread to more industries. Perhaps biscuits and tires can be next.

A Final Word on Education:

During a private meeting with the head of one of the country’s new private banks, I asked if he was finding it difficult to recruit qualified employees. The bank manager replied with a sigh that it was indeed difficult. He explained what a struggle it was to find university economics graduates who know what a balance sheet or an income statement is. As a result, most banks have lowered their requirements, employing new people simply because they speak English proficiently. As it turns out, finding good English speakers is no small challenge. Syrian students in elementary school spend one hour a day learning a foreign language. This is in direct contrast to their Lebanese counterparts who end up speaking two foreign languages fluently by high school. Syrian students are at a major disadvantage when it comes to competing in today’s market place.

Reforming the Syrian education system must become a priority for the country’s leadership. Instilling strong Arab nationalistic sentiment and having an education system that teaches a number of subjects in English or French must not be seen as mutually exclusive. A sixth grader needs to spend more time learning English and French than memorizing the key figures who fought the battle of Qadisiya in 637. Syria must grasp the bull by the horns. The Syrian economy and government services have real ailments that will get worse as the country liberalizes. Big medicine is needed.

US-Syrian relations have continued to improve over the two weeks that I was on vacation. A second US military delegation visited Damascus to work on implementing agreements on Iraq security and intelligence sharing. Doubtlessly there will be hiccups in this process. American will want quick compliance and its requests met in full; Syria will hold back information and access until it is satisfied that its demands, particularly on the economic front, are being met. Economic demands are the most easy for the US to deliver on. Even then, US diplomats will claim that congress, the pro-Israel lobby, and “old-think,” stand in the way of change.

Al-Maliki, upset that the United States has taken it upon itself to negotiate over Iraq’s security with another country, followed the Americans to Damascus. “Iraq is still complaining about the infiltration of Arab and foreign terrorists into Iraq,” said Ali al-Moussawi, an adviser to al-Maliki. As the US pulls out of Iraq, Baghdad authorities are beginning to accuse Saudi Arabia of fueling the continuing violence against Shiites.

Al-Akhbar claims that Obama has moved the Syria and Lebanon file from the State Department to the White House, which is theoretically less subject to pressure from pro-Israeli elements. I have no idea if this is true. President Bush was the first president to move the Syria-Lebanon file to the White House, where it was jealously tended by the NSC and Elliott Abrams. Abrams served as a point person for policies related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; he viewed Lebanon and Syria policy as a subset of the Israeli-US relationship. He used his perch in the NSC to fight efforts to push diplomatic approaches to the crises in the Middle East. In particular, he saw Saudi King Abdullah’s Arab Peace initiative as dangerous. He sought to prevent land for peace discussions and tried to stop Condoleezza Rice from pushing them forward. He used democracy promotion as a weapon to prevent engagement with Syria or the Palestinians and to divert discussion from talking about land to “capacity expansion”, “institution building,” etc., which led no where. This permitted him to focus on the enemies of Israel, which he was determined to destroy.

It was said that Obama would unwrap his Middle East Peace Plan during August, but this seems unlikely today. It is clear that Israel will not freeze settlements and will fight Obama by going to the Senate, Republican Party, and US evangelicals. See the article on Hukabee copied below.

Foolishly, the Obama administration asked Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Arab states to “normalize” relations with Israel in exchange for Netanyahu’s acceptance of the two-state solution and the freeze. Predictably, they have brushed off this suggestion, claiming that it would be putting the cart before the horse to normalize before a sovereign Palestinian state is established. and they are correct to do so.

The Arab refusal, however, has been useful to Israel supporters and opponents of the Obama initiative in the US government, who can now attack the Arabs for torpedoing the US plan. Two of my very smart students returned from an AIPAC led trip to Israel. They explained to me that “Obama is a well meaning man, who doesn’t understand the Middle East and is tilting at wind mills in trying to promote a two-state solution, which was never viable. Why,” they say, “even the Arab states are ignoring Obama’s requests. Why would Israel be a sucker and comply?” Then they decried the PLO conference, lamenting how no moderates remain among the Palestinians for Israel to negotiate with. They insisted that Obama was squandering his precious political capital on foreign policy when he needs it all for health care at home.

So how does this impact Syria? Damascus is trying to separate US-Syria relations from the Arab-Israeli conflict in anticipation of the day that Obama’s initiative founders. Even Hussein Agha and Robert Malley are claiming that “The Two-State Solution Doesn’t Solve Anything”. Syria’s effort to develop a relationship with Washington that is not ultimately contingent on Israel will be difficult.

The only reason most policy makers in Washington are interested in Syria is because of Israel. They want to end the Arab-Israeli conflict, but they have to do it without forcing Israel to give up the Golan because they are incapable of pressuring Israel. Clinton got close in 2000, but was ultimately unable or unwilling to pressure Barak to give up the Golan.

President Assad spent Wednesday in Iran to congratulate President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad on his election. He has been able to use his good relations with Iran to free a French-Iranian recently imprisoned in Tehran. Assad condemned foreign intervention in Iran’s internal affairs, saying that “the main purpose of the interference of enemies and the West in Iran’s internal affairs is to prevent Iran and Syria from gaining consecutive victories in the next four years.”

I am about half way through “A World of Trouble:The White House and the Middle East — From the Cold War to the War on Terror,” by Patrick Tyler, which is excellent both for its careful archival research and readability. Tyler demonstrates how President Johnson failed to force the Israelis to withdraw from the territories captured in 1967 because he wanted to be the most pro-Israeli president and win the continuing support of Jewish American backers who helped finance his campaign and provided invaluable support in the civil rights movement and Johnson’s Great Society programs. Nixon set out to reverse this mistake during the 1973 war, but was forced to become a cheerleader for further Israeli territorial gains due to Kissinger’s perfidy and pressure from key senators such as Scoop Jackson. The tale is a fascinating one and well written. Tyler has been hammered by reviewers in both the New York and L.A. Times for his focus on the pro-Israel lobby. Tyler has the archives to back up his contention that the Lobby played an important role in the history. The reviewers have only their assertions to deny it.

Reading the book underlines how difficult it will be for President Obama to end the Arab-Israeli conflict and limit the on-going damage that it does to US interests in the region. Even if Obama cannot achieve a two-state solution, Syria may be able to profit from the President’s determination to change, at the very least, Washington’s relationship to Israel and lesson its one-sided approach to the region.

[End Analysis]

News Summary

Alex has very kindly programmed a new function for Syria Comment. Near the top of the left column and below the search box you can now click on “search comments” …. try it.

You will be able to retrieve your last 100 comments (simply enter your name in the author name field)

You can search by keyword, limit search (faster) by range of dates …

Thanks, Alex Habibi

On August 17, the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported: “Knowledgeable sources said that President Bashar al-Assad will carry out a brief visit to Iran Wednesday to congratulate President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad on his election for a second mandate. Meanwhile, Butheina Shaaban

The The July-August 2009 issue of the Mideast Monitor, edited by Gary Gambill is up. It features articles by Gary and our very own Qifa Nabki.

Gary C. Gambill, “Still Standing: Aoun after the Elections”
Despite enormous Western support for his rivals, the hostile intercession of the Maronite Christian church, and a flurry of damaging foreign accusations against his Shiite alliance partners, Michel Aoun walked away from the June elections with the largest Christian parliamentary bloc in Lebanese history.

Elias Muhanna, “Deconstructing the Popular Vote in Lebanon’s Elections”
The Lebanese opposition managed to win the popular vote handily, while still losing the election.

Cairo wants Washington to consider Hamas members’ prospective recognition of the Saudi-backed Arab Peace Initiative as de facto recognition of Israel’s right to exist, the former senior official said. “Some in the U.S. administration don’t agree.”

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Quiet slicing of the West Bank makes abstract prayers for peace obscene
Condemnation of ‘illegal’ settlements and violence only blurs the reality of what the Israeli state is sanctioning, day by day
By Slavoj Zizek, The Guardian, Tuesday 18 August 2009

On 2 August 2009, after cordoning off part of the Arab neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah in east Jerusalem, Israeli police evicted two Palestinian families (more than 50 people) from their homes; Jewish settlers immediately moved into the emptied houses. Although Israeli police cited a ruling by the country’s supreme court, the evicted Arab families had been living there for more than 50 years. The event – which, rather exceptionally, did attract the attention of the world media – is part of a much larger and mostly ignored ongoing process.

Five months earlier, on 1 March, it had been reported that the Israeli government had drafted plans to build more than 70,000 new homes in Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank; if implemented, the plans could increase the number of settlers in the Palestinian territories by about 300,000 Such a move would not only severely undermine the chances of a viable Palestinian state, but also hamper the everyday life of Palestinians.

A government spokesman dismissed the report, arguing that the plans were of limited relevance – the construction of homes in the settlements required the approval of the defence minister and the prime minister. However, 15,000 have already been fully approved, and 20,000 of the proposed housing units lie in settlements that Israel cannot expect to retain in any future peace deal with the Palestinians.

The conclusion is obvious: while paying lip-service to the two-state solution, Israel is busy creating a situation on the ground that will render such a solution impossible. ….

Edward P. Djerejian: The United States Must Engage With Syria to Achieve Mideast Peace
Source: online.wsj.com

Former U.S. ambassador to Syria Edward Djerejian argues in the Wall Street Journal that dialoguing with Damascus is essential for our national security and broader goals like Arab-Israeli peace. …
Though in recent months some have derided the power of dialogue, the truth is that strategic engagement with our enemies remains absolutely essential for our national security. Talking to our adversaries with a clear purpose in mind is not a sign of weakness.

At the same time, diplomacy should never be carried out in a way that indicates a lack of United States resolve. While President Ronald Reagan stigmatized the Soviet Union as the “evil empire,” his administration carried out tough-minded negotiations with the Communist regime and achieved positive results.

The often adversarial relationship between the U.S. and Syria is a case in point. The Syrian regime could undermine security in southern Lebanon, hinder progress in Iraq, and continue to support Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas. It also has the potential to play a constructive role in the region—a possibility that has yet to be fully explored. A high-level bilateral dialogue could enhance our national security interests, as demonstrated by U.S. diplomacy in the recent past.

When I was ambassador to Syria (1988-1991), my major task was to implement the policy of strategic engagement established by President George H.W. Bush and Secretary of State James A. Baker III. Our relationship with Syria in the late 1980s was troubled. But we understood that without Syria we could not help end the civil war in Lebanon, make progress on Arab-Israeli peace talks, curtail certain terrorist groups, control drug trafficking, promote regional security, and advance our human-rights agenda. We sought common ground through serious dialogue.

Despite many obstacles, tangible goals were reached…..

… The Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group Report, published in 2006, called on Syria to take specific action on key issues dealing with Iraq, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. The report also said that the regime should take action on the matter of Lebanon’s sovereignty, including by cooperating with the United Nations Commission’s investigation of the assassination of Rafik Hariri. In exchange for these actions, and in the context of a final peace agreement, the report called on Israel to return the Golan Heights. The report also offered a security guarantee for Israel that could include an international force on the border. If requested by both parties, it would comprise U.S. troops.

The Arab-Israeli conflict and the struggle between the forces of moderation and extremism within the Muslim world are the two major issues that are exploited by the Islamic extremists for their own political ends. Thus, U.S. policy should focus on promoting a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace settlement, and on supporting the moderates in the region by the judicious use of soft and hard power to marginalize the extremists. U.S. engagement with Syria could be a key component of this strategy.

Report: 20 Syrian civilians killed in failed missile test
By Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondent

Twenty Syrian civilians were killed and 60 more were injured after a Scud missile test-fired jointly by Syria, North Korea and Iran in late May strayed off course, Japan’s Kyodo News reported.

The launch was an attempt to test a new short-range ballistic Scud missile jointly developed by the three countries that they meant to replace an outdated version, according to the Japanese report, which quoted Western diplomatic sources.

A technical malfunction caused one of the two missiles test-fired to land in a market located in a town on the Syria-Turkey border, killing 20 and injuring 60 more.

Syrian military officials blocked off access to the area to recover what was left of the missile, Kyodo News reported, and told residents there had been a gas explosion.

The other missile may have landed in a border area between Syria and Iraq, the diplomatic source told Kyodo.

Kyodo also quoted a Middle Eastern military source, who said a problem with the missiles’ guidance systems caused them to go astray.

If they won’t make peace we may have to make it for them
Tony Karon
The Naitonal, UAE / August 15. 2009

Nobody imagined in 1947 that the terms on which Palestine would be divided into two states could be determined in negotiations between Jews and Arabs. Comprising almost two thirds of the population and owning an even larger proportion of the arable land, Arabs had no incentive to cede half the country to a minority of recent European immigrants. If there was to be a partition, it would clearly have to be imposed.

The unfortunate reality confronting all those who seek a new two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is that the two sides may be no more likely to reach agreement today than they were 62 years ago.

The balance of power and possession has, of course, shifted dramatically in favour of the Jewish population: they now comprise a little over half of those living in what was once Palestine, but directly control 95 per cent of the territory. They consider handing about a fifth of that territory back to the Palestinians as a “generous offer”, and with a government dictated to by right-wing nationalist settlers who believe they are doing God’s work by driving the Palestinians off land in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the Israelis are not even feeling particularly “generous”.

That is bad news for the Obama administration, which is preparing to unveil the next phase of an Israeli-Palestinian peace effort that it has made a diplomatic priority of its first term in office – raising expectations that it may struggle to meet…..

Syria pulls some strings in Iran
By Sami Moubayed, Aug 14, 2009, Asia Times

DAMASCUS
– There were many layers to the groundbreaking “thank-you” from French President Nicolas Sarkozy to Syria, after Damascus this week helped free Nazak Afshar, a French-Iranian citizen, from captivity in Tehran.

Afshar was arrested on charges of participating in a move to stage a “soft” revolution in Iran after the elections in June that saw President Mahmud Ahmadinejad win a second four-year term. Afshar worked at the cultural service of the French Embassy in Tehran and was caught up in the massive street demonstrations that broke out when loyalists to losing presidential candidate Mir-Hussein Mousavi claimed the elections were rigged.

Although no specific details were given on how Syria and several European Union (EU) countries helped orchestrate the deal, there are several indicators on how Damascus used its considerable……

…Now that the two have settled their differences over internal Lebanese affairs, the prospects of real results in Iraq are high. Syria has one advantage in Iraq, however, that the Saudis do not have – a strong influence in the Shi’ite street.

This was made very clear last month when the Syrians hosted Shi’ite heavyweight Muqtada al-Sadr in Damascus, proving that when it comes to cross-sectarian influence, they have the upper hand in Iraq. The Iranians only have influence among Shi’ites, making Syria a valuable player – in American eyes – for real rapprochement in Iraq.

This is yet another point the Syrians can use to market themselves as stability makers in the region, in addition to the weight they can push around in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon. ….

…Put simply, Syria wants the resumption of peace talks on the Golan, Obama wants to moderate the behavior of Iran and get all parties to restore peace to Iraq. There is progress from the point of view of the Syrians, with a special US envoy, Fredrick Hoff, in Damascus to push the Middle East peace process forward. …

Syrian cell phone users have reportedly crossed 7 million. Each minute of use costs 9 cents. Assume each user uses his phone an average of 5 minutes a day ($13 a month…. most use much more): 7,000,000 users * 9 cents a minute * 5 minutes a day * 365 days = $ 1.1 billion a year. (Ehsani)

Syria: Three’s Company
Oxford Business Group, 18 August 2009

Syria is set to unveil a long-awaited new telecommunications law that could see the creation of an independent regulator and the creation of a new licensing regime for mobile operators.

Due to be introduced by early next year, the new law will also see state-owned Syrian Telecommunications Establishment (STE) restructured to become a commercially driven player, as well as pave the way for the possible arrival of a third mobile operator that should lead to increased competition and ultimately result in lower tariffs and increased penetration.

The STE is currently set-up as a public enterprise and holds a monopoly over the provision of fixed-line services and infrastructure. The STE also serves as the sector’s regulator….

The new law will remove the regulatory function from the STE…..

….According to Bahsas, “Looking at global trends, in nearly every market where a separate regulator was established, tremendous progress was achieved for the sector as a whole, so the new telecoms law is a must for the country.”

Eventually, the government will also consider ending the STE’s monopoly over fixed-line services, but this will not take place for a few years. Bahsas justified the delay to OBG, explaining, “If we all of a sudden open the market and issue new fixed-line licences, we will be unable to compete under our current public sector structure, which does not afford us the flexibility to move with the pace of new technologies. So we need a grace period to restructure ourselves and build the necessary commercial and financial competencies to compete with any new arrivals.”

Pressure to end the STE’s monopoly over infrastructure is coming from abroad as well. A stipulation in the pending EU-Syria Association Agreement, which is likely to be signed next year, states that infrastructure ownership will be opened up six years after the agreement takes effect.

Some of the biggest changes will come about in the mobile sector,…..

Huckabee says 2 states in Holy Land ‘unrealistic’

By STEVEN GUTKIN, Associated Press Writer Steven Gutkin, Associated Press Writer 2 hrs 15 mins ago

JERUSALEM – Former U.S. presidential candidate Mike Huckabee said Tuesday there should be no Palestinian state in the West Bank and endorsed Israeli settlements there, sharply disagreeing with Washington and much of the world.

A three-day tour of Israel, hosted by a far-right group of religious nationalists, is taking Huckabee to some of the most contentious hotspots in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict including a West Bank settlement outpost that even Israel’s hard-line government considers illegal and an east Jerusalem housing project that the Obama administration has demanded be halted.

Israel officially refuses to freeze its settlement activity, but officials have confirmed that approval is now being withheld from fresh projects.

Huckabee’s opposition to a Palestinian state puts him at odds with the accepted wisdom of both Democrats and Republicans — and to some degree even with conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has come out in favor of some form of Palestinian independence.

Speaking to a small group of foreign reporters in Jerusalem, Huckabee said the international community should consider establishing a Palestinian state some place else.

“The question is should the Palestinians have a place to call their own? Yes, I have no problem with that. Should it be in the middle of the Jewish homeland? That’s what I think has to be honestly assessed as virtually unrealistic.”

The politician, a Southern Baptist preacher and a two-time former governor of Arkansas, praised Israel for giving Muslims access to Jerusalem’s Dome of the Rock — also once the site of the ancient Jewish temples — even though the presence of a mosque there “could be considered an affront.”

“Israel is a place where they’re going to allow other cultures and religions, but don’t ask the Jewish people whose homeland it is to completely yield over their ability to live within the context of their country,” said Huckabee…..

The Dutch and some other EU members have been hesitant to let Damascus into its Mediterranean trade agreement because of its human rights violations. All other countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea are members, no matter how egregious their human rights violations are.

It might be right to keep Syria out if this were to produce results, but it is unlikely to. I have argued on these pages that Europe is likely to have better success in bringing liberalism to Syria if it follows a China policy. By drawing Syria into the global economy and producing a larger middle class that has a real interest in abiding by international laws, the West is likely to have a greater impact than through sanctionsRound

Britain backs Syria-EU pact despite concerns
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis, Wed Aug 5, 2009

DAMASCUS (Reuters) – Britain supports signing an economic pact between Syria and the European Union despite its concerns about human rights violations by Damascus, a British official said Tuesday.

Ivan Lewis, a deputy Foreign Office minister, called for a “new beginning” with Syria and said Damascus should be encouraged to change policies, despite its alliance with Iran and support for the Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah militant groups.

“(Britain) will try and play a positive role to help that happen, although some European countries still have concerns about elements of Syrian policy. We still hope we can overcome those concerns and that an agreement be signed,” Lewis said after meeting Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem…..

Fred Hoff Visits Damascus to discuss the Obama peace plan and lay foundations for next steps. He is accompanied by a delegation to carry out discussions with various Syrians (although the following article does not say who is accompanying Hoff in the delegation, it is likely that they are military and will develop the new security agreement on Iraq.

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PR-Inside, VIA FLC

“Engagement with Syria has emerged as a high priority for US President Obama’s administration, as evidenced by the flurry of diplomatic activity since the new president took office in January. We expect these efforts to bear some fruit, not least because of the poor state of the Syrian economy. The prospect of improved trade ties and the likelihood of increased inward investment will act as a major incentive………

The path to peace will not be easy for Syria, as illustrated in its spiky relationship with Israel. Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel´s prime minister, had declared himself hostile to the return of the Golan Heights to Syria – one of Damascus´s key demands of the regional peace process …. There are also still plenty of questions hanging over Syria´s commitment to the US vision of peace: its support of Iran, Hamas and Hizbullah is popular at home, and there is some suggestion that Syria has concealed the extent of its nuclear research facilities. Washington has also called on Syria to take action against al-Qaeda fighters entering Iraq from its territory. The Syrian economy is under attack on several fronts in 2009, and we are forecasting a slump in real GDP growth to just 1.4%, down from an estimated 4.1% in 2007. Conditions will remain tough in 2010, when we see growth rising only slightly to 1.8%, before recovering further to 2.6% in 2011. A poor growth outlook, twin deficits on the fiscal and current accounts and a lack of inward investment are likely to exert downside pressure on the currency during our forecast period.

Economy:

Syrian tourism grows fast amidst economic crisis
www.chinaview.cn 2009-08-10

DAMASCUS, Aug. 10 (Xinhua) — Despite the global financial crisis, Syria saw a 23 percent increase of Arab and European tourists in July compared to the same month last year, showed the latest official statistics released by the Ministry of Tourism.

According to the statistics, Bahrain accounted for 55 percent of the tourists, followed by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Tourism in Syria has recorded strong growth in recent years. Minister of Tourism Saadallah Agha al-Qalaa told a Brazilian commercial delegation last month that visitors to Syria increased by 9 percent in the first half this year even amidst the international financial crisis, compared to the same period last year.

According to the minister, tourism has accounted for 11 percent of Syria’s gross domestic product (GDP) in recent years and Syria is now receiving 5.4 million visitors per year on average.

So far, Syria has tended to attract visitors from other parts of the Middle East, but promotion campaigns by the state and tour operators last year have targeted Asian and European tourists.

One important partner with Syria in the sector is Turkey, and relations between the two countries have grown significantly in recent years.

Turkey and Syria have signed deals to foster bilateral tourism and jointly promote the two countries as tourist destinations abroad, which means Turkish and Syrian operators could sell packages including both countries.

US Fines DHL express for Dealings with Syria
German express delivery company DHL has been fined USD 9.4 million by the US Treasury for dealing with countries under sanctions, including Syria.

Syria: Slow and Steady
Oxford Business Group, 7 August 2009

In March, the long-anticipated Damascus Stock Exchange (DSE) was launched and now, some six months into trading, the DSE has 11 companies listed, with three more currently undertaking initial public offerings. …

As further encouragement to entice Syria’s major privately owned family groups to list, Al Jleilati explained to OBG that, “Companies who restructure to have more than 51% of their ownership held by multiple shareholders will be taxed at 14% compared to historical rates that sometimes reached as high as 65%. Companies will also be forced to recalculate their past incomes, with the government granting immunity on all reporting discrepancies by imposing a flat back-tax of 1%, which we see as a very fair compromise.”

Despite the incentives provided, many companies are still reluctant to report their earnings, according to Sofian Haikal, the director of brokerage firm Cham Capital. “Family companies lack trust in the authorities and many are afraid to be the first guinea pigs in reporting their taxable incomes. That said, I am optimistic of the eventual transition from family to public business, as it only needs a few successful examples to gain collective popularity,” he told OBG.

Investors also face difficulties in measuring the intangible assets earned by these companies, such as brand equity, and there is reluctance on the part of investors to sell-off shares. According to research produced by Bemo Finance, share prices have risen 57% over the past four months. As a result of this upward trend, combined with a perception that due to the 2% daily fluctuation cap most listed companies are currently undervalued, many investors are holding onto their stocks. …

QNB Syria unit $37 mln IPO oversubscribed

Mon Aug 10, 2009 (Reuters) – The Syrian unit of Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA (QNB) has raised at least 1.7 billion Syrian pounds ($37 million) through a public offering that is closing on Monday evening, a person close to the matter said.

QNB on June 30 said it aimed to raise 1.7 billion Syrian pounds by selling a 34 percent stake in its Syrian unit. The shares are offered to Syrian private investors at 500 pounds a share in an IPO running from July 12 to Aug. 10.

Lebanon:

Jumblat: I Alone Am ‘Entitled’ to Set a Date for Syria Visit

MP Walid Jumblat reiterated that he was the only person “entitled” to set the date for his visit to Damascus, according to comments published Monday in al-Anbaa newspaper. “I am the only one entitled to set the date, nature, circumstances and timing of my visit to Damascus. I will also study – at a later time – the possibility of visiting any other capital,” Jumblat said in his weekly interview with the daily. He said pending issues between Lebanon and Syria “can be resolved between the two states according to protocol.”

An excellent article by Sami.
U-turn puts Hezbollah in the driving seat
By Sami Moubayed

DAMASCUS – Those who rejoiced at the election results in Lebanon on June 7 had a big surprise this week, as the tables seemed to turn on the pro-Western coalition in favor of the Hezbollah-led opposition, and Damascus.

During the elections, the March 14 Coalition, which is close to the United States and France, won 71 seats in parliament, while the opposition, backed by Syria and Iran, came out with 57, maintaining the minority they had held since 2005. On August 2, however, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, head of the Progressive Socialist Party in Lebanon and one of the March 14 heavyweights, sent shockwaves throughout Beirut by announcing that his alliance with March 14 had been “driven by necessity and must end”. ….

…Jumblatt has also changed his views on who killed Rafik Hariri in 2005. He had previously accused Syria, but he told the magazine that he was no longer certain who had carried out the assassination. ….

Why did Jumblatt – known to be a political chameleon – change his colors so dramatically? The Druze warlord was a strong ally of Syria during Lebanon’s civil war, and was royally rewarded for his services with government posts for him and his entourage throughout the 1990s. But when he realized that Syria’s fortunes were turning in 2004 – shortly after the war on Iraq – he shifted towards the opposition, calling on the Syrians to leave Lebanon, though more than anyone else it was him that helped legitimize the Syrian presence in Lebanon, for nearly 20 years.

Jumblatt managed to read the political landscape in Washington well , realizing that the Bush White House was at daggers end with the Syrian government, because of its lack of cooperation in the war on Iraq. ….

Jumblatt is a political animal who follows the prevailing wind, whether it comes from Moscow, Washington or Damascus. When Syria and the US were allies in the 1990s, he reasoned that it was best to be on Syria’s side, due to its excellent relations with the Bill Clinton administration. When he saw that relations were irreparable between the Syrians and George W Bush, he decided to abandon ship – especially after the passing of resolution 1559, seeing that a head-on collusion between Damascus and Washington loomed on the horizon.

That happened when Hariri was killed in 2005, and Jumblatt tried to ally himself with Washington’s “regime change” movement, but by late 2008 it was clear that Bush was leaving, having repeatedly failed at toppling – or even weakening – the Syrians. Now with Obama in power, there is no sense in maintaining hostility with the Syrians, since Obama is interested neither in regime change, not even instability in Damascus.

Obama’s focus is on Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan – not the worries of Lebanon, and Jumblatt has realized this from day one. The Americans are willing to tolerate a reborn Syrian influence in Lebanon, if it guarantees peace and quiet in Beirut and Iraq. ….

Israel PM Warns Against Including Hizbullah in Lebanon Government

Israel warned on Monday that the Lebanese government as a whole would be blamed for any attack from its territory if Hizbullah is part of the new government. “If Hizbullah joins the government it will be clear that the Lebanese government will be held responsible for any attack coming from its territory against Israel,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

Iraq:

Baath party leader and former Saddam Hussein aide Izzat al-Douri called on both armed and unarmed groups in Iraq to engage in politics. Al-Douri claimed that the formation of a national council would create a forum for promoting a unified Iraqi political platform and facilitate a greater political role for many actors in Iraq.

Bashar al-Sba’i (ElSbihi), the opposition figure about whom I wrote last week, has written to explain that he did not “come to an understanding with the Syrian government” before returning home. I am copying his full letter below with his permission. I hope also to publish his analysis of the changes Syria is going through and what role individual Syrians can play in bringing about further change. I am grateful for the opportunity to publish this clarification. Bashar Elsbihi writes:

Dear Joshua,

I read your August 1st, post regarding my return home to Syria from the U.S. A friend sent it to me via e-mail, and I was a bit surprised at a couple of assumptions on your part. However, I’m glad to have the chance to clear those points of views and the set the record straight to your readers.

In your post you stated that I, “must have negotiated a deal with the Syrian government to go home a short time ago”, yet the truth I did not. In fact going back was the last thing on my mind.

The reality of my decision, of which you made clear, that I totally lost faith in Middle-Eastern politics in general and the Syrian Opposition in particular; for many reasons chief among them is the Syrian Opposition lack of vision and leadership. As you know, my work in TV has given me a totally new perspective on politics and politicians and a great incentive to leave politics altogether, therefore I issued my April 19, 2009 declaration of which I stated my exact reasons for leaving all forms of organized political work.

My return home did not have any pre-negotiated deal. I simply asked the appropriate authorities through private channel if there would be any issues upon my return home and the answer came back is none. What I found most fascinating about this whole affair is the level of change in the perspective and work methods of the infamous Syrian Security apparatuses of which people feared and loathed for years. Some of your readers may think this is an exaggeration or simply my case was an exception to the rule because of my family status in the country, however I will be writing in details about this at a later time to explain the internal changing dynamics that have taken place in the country since President Bashar Al-Assad took over from his father.

The other note I would like to correct is your comment about me apologizing for my work in the opposition. Actually I never did. What I stated was that I simply have read things “wrongly” while I was in the opposition and I made that very clear in my April 19 declaration. I still believe in the need for multi-party system in Syria and the benefits such a system would reap from a viable opposition in the country; especially in today’s Syria where the monopoly the Ba’ath Party enjoys today have become a burden on the current government and its future plans for an expanding and thriving economy in Syria. However I believe this change must be home-grown and worked out on the local level and free from foreign political pressure.

These are the two points I wanted to clarify and I will be expanding on them in my future writings as I’m still enjoying my birth place with all its fascinating history traditions. I’m actually trying to visit as many places around the country as possible and will be writing a great deal about my impressions.

Finally, I totally agree with your statement that authoritarianism in the Middle-East is back, however, it’s a new and an upgraded type of authoritarianism that has proved to be much more effective at keeping the peace and stability which the West and America could not bring into the region with their democracy promotion methods. I’ll also be expanding on this point in the near future.

Bashar Elsbihi

Via Jim Lobe and FLC:
What America Must Do To End the Israel-Palestine Conflict

“In a new film—released both on DVD and Youtube–Jimmy Carter, James A. Baker, Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski make the case that it is time for the Obama administration to put forward a conflict-ending resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The senior statesmen make the case that a U.S. plan will not address all Israeli or Palestinian interests, but that if the U.S. exerts leadership and its allies support the plan, the majority of Israelis and Palestinians will see the opportunity for a genuine and long-lasting peace.

The Foundation for Middle East Peace supported the production of the film–New Hope for Peace: What America Must do to end the Israel-Palestine Conflict–and described its release as coming ”at a time when the Obama administration and Mitchell risk repeating another failed ‘peace process’ by pushing interim ‘confidence-building’ measures like a settlement freeze and goodwill gestures by Arab governments which are not making much progress.”

At a time when the Netanyahu government and its allies in the U.S. have urged the Obama administration to back off its push for an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement, this bipartisan intervention by four elder statesmen demonstrates that there is still a strong constituency within the foreign policy establishment for aggressive U.S. leadership in the peace process.

Carter, Baker, Scowcroft and Brzezinski argue that a U.S. led plan which supports Israel’s right to exist, engages Hamas and Palestinian leadership, and provides a clear road map based on “land for peace” would be pivotal in winning over the majority of Israelis and Palestinians as well as gaining the support of Arab regional partners and allies around the world.

Although perhaps overly simplistic—which is unavoidable in a twenty minute film—it give one pause to think about what would happen if the US proposed a comprehensive plan for a two-state-solution which the rest of the world could support. Would Israel or the Palestinians be able to resist such an offer?”

According to the Lebanese daily Al Akhbar, President Obama heeded a “french advice” and transferred the Lebanon-Syria file (s) to the White House, away from the tractions and the oversight of such officials as Jeffrey Feltman… Moreover, and always according to Al Akhbar, a senior Arab diplomat in Beirut said that President Obama sent a “three pages letter” to President Assad asking him to “turn a new page in the bilateral relations between the US and Syria” … and outlining ways to move forward.

Britain urges Syria to help push Mideast peace (AFP)

DAMASCUS — British Foreign Office Minister Ivan Lewis on Tuesday urged Syria to help push deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and also resume its own negotiations with the Jewish state.

Lewis also told reporters that Israel should return the strategic Golan Heights to Syria as part of a comprehensive peace between the two arch-foes, following talks with Foreign Minister Walid Muallem.

“We want Syria to use its influence in terms of helping to create the conditions now for the two-state solution between the Israelis and the Palestinians so crucial to the stability of the region,” Lewis said.

“We expressed the hope that as soon as it is possible the negotiations resume between Israel and Syria on the question of the Golan Heights and also the question of normalising relations between the two countries,” he added.

Lewis, who arrived on Monday for talks with Syrian leaders, said a keynote speech in June by US President Barack Obama in Egypt to engage the region had struck optimism for Middle East peace.

“We think that there is now a very important opportunity that perhaps hasn’t existed in the past for one of the world’s great conflicts to begin to come to an end, the conflict of the Middle East,” he said.

A solution, he said, should include “a viable Palestinian state” alongside Israel and a “comprehensive peace between Syria and Israel which includes the return of the Golan Heights.”

Turkey last year brokered four rounds of indirect talks between Israel and Syria, but these were suspended when Israel launched an offensive against the Gaza Strip in late December.

Syria has conditioned the resumption of talks to Israel’s return of the Golan, which was seized by the Jewish state during the 1967 Six Day War and later annexed.

But Israel refuses to give up control of the strategic plateau.

“Whatever the case, the Golan must remain under Israeli control in any agreement with Syria,” Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told a delegation of US congressman on Monday.

Lewis also urged Syria to use its influence to help stabilise neighbouring Iraq and Lebanon

Reconnecting America and Syria

Internet users could be among the first to benefit as the US prepares to dismantle trade sanctions

American officials are preparing to waive some of the sanctions against Syria imposed by the Bush administration, according to Imad Moustapha, the Syrian ambassador to Washington.

First to go will be the ban on exports of spare parts and safety equipment for the Syrian civil aviation industry, followed by that on computer products. Crucially, this will mean Syrian internet users should be able to download software and buy goods and services online.

The only sticking point is that the rules will not be swept away with one signature in the Oval Office. Instead they will be handled on a case-by-case basis. But the US is hinting it will push through each individual waiver request without too much difficulty….

…Why not go all the way and revoke the entire sanctions law? Imad Moustapha claims that would require the assent of the US Congress, where President Barack Obama could run into difficulties. Instead, the plan seems to be to lift parts of the embargo one by one until the law becomes meaningless.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak says Israel should join the U.S. peace initiative for the Middle East when it’s ready.

Lebanon’s Hariri takes time out after ally quits
Tue Aug 4, 2009
By Tom Perry

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri has taken a holiday to “think and reflect” after a once close ally quit his anti-Syria coalition in a move expected to delay the formation of a new government.

Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s departure from Hariri’s “March 14” alliance this week has redrawn Lebanon’s political map and undermined the coalition’s June parliamentary election victory over rivals including the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group.

Hariri, a Saudi- and U.S.-backed billionaire businessman, had been expected to conclude talks this week on the formation of a coalition government grouping his alliance with parties allied to Syria, including Hezbollah and the Amal movement.

But he left the country Monday night for a holiday, his media office said. The trip aimed to give Hariri a chance to “think and reflect calmly,” according to a statement released after a meeting of MPs from his Future Movement.

Hariri wanted to “take some real distance from the heat of the debate over the political make-up of March 14 and likewise the consultations over the government formation,” it said.

Hariri, 39, had reached agreement last week on the division of cabinet seats, splitting the portfolios between his alliance, the rival “March 8” alliance and a group of ministers to be named by President Michel Suleiman.

But Jumblatt has said the three ministers he is expected to be allocated in the 30-seat cabinet will be aligned with neither March 14 or March 8, the coalitions whose rivalry has defined Lebanese politics since the 2005 assassination of Hariri’s father, former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri.

He told Lebanese television station MTV that he would ally himself with Suleiman, who was elected president last year as a consensus candidate.

The change in his position is seen linked to an end to Syria’s isolation by many Western governments and rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Syria, whose rivalry has been seen at the heart of Lebanon’s turmoil since the Hariri killing.

Jumblatt’s announcement has dealt a major blow to March 14, which won a parliamentary majority in a legislative election two months ago. Without his bloc of 11 MPs, March 14 no longer has an absolute majority in the 128-seat parliament.

Nabih Berri, parliament speaker and one of Syria’s closest allies in Lebanon, told as-Safir newspaper he feared a delay in the government formation. “It is very necessary that contacts be accelerated,” he said.

The Beirut stock exchange fell for a second day in response to the political outlook. The BLOM index fell 2.8 percent, dragged down by real estate firm Solidere. Its shares dipped more than 6 percent.

Jumblatt had been one of the most hawkish figures in the March 14 alliance, which coalesced after the Hariri killing with an agenda focused on ending Syrian influence in Lebanon.

Jumblat: March 14 to Remain a Majority in Lebanon; I Will Not Join Opposition

Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat said following his announcement that he was terminating his alliance with March 14 forces that the coalition will remain a majority in Lebanon, stressing that he will not join the opposition.
Jumblat, in remarks published by several Lebanese newspapers on Tuesday, said his Sunday announcement “will not change the Cabinet lineup.”

“The majority will remain a majority,” he said, stressing his keenness to ensure the success of efforts undertaken by President Michel Suleiman toward a speedy government formation.

“I want to be independent… I did not apply to join March 8,” Jumblatt told the daily An Nahar newspaper in Tuesday’s edition, referring to the Hizbullah led-alliance.

A spokesman for Jumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party told the Aljadeed TV that the departure from the pro-Western coalition was final. “But it’s not to join another group,” said Rami Rayess.

He urged a rapid formation of a national unity government.

“We need to see progress toward government formation, and that is in everybody’s interest,” Jumblat said.

Jumblatt stressed he was moving to the center, telling a TV station that he will take the side of Suleiman.

“I am an independent. I will not affiliate with any other team. I will join the President who is the guarantor,” Jumblat said in an interview with MTV late Monday.

He pointed that a number of MPs within his Democratic Gathering bloc would vote in favor of the majority.

The Druze leader on Sunday announced that his alliance with March 14 forces had been “out of necessity and must not continue.”

On Monday evening Jumblat called on the Iranian Embassy in Beirut where Ambassador Mohammed Riza Shibani extended him an invitation to visit Tehran. And on Tuesday, Jumblat is expected to visit the Beirut headquarters of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party for talks with its leader MP Assaad Hardan.