Charlie Rose – Crisis in Syria
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12139

The crisis in Syria with Fouad Ajami; Thomas L. Friedman; Joshua Landis; and Anne-Marie Slaughter

West Reluctantly Weighs Military Aid For Syria Rebels

By: Nicholas Blanford | The Christian Science Monitor

After diplomatic efforts at the UN failed Saturday, there is a growing consensus that supporting the rebel Free Syrian Army may be the only way to break the stalemate between Assad and his opponents….Still, there is little international appetite to replicate last year’s NATO mission in Libya, which helped topple Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi. Secretary of State Hilary Rodham Clintonsaid on Sunday that a direct military intervention had been “absolutely ruled out.”…Leadership disputes aside, turning the FSA into a coherent military force will require “coordinated action by the intelligence services of a coalition of the willing,” says Jeffrey White, a military analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.The FSA, he says, would need an assured supply of arms and ammunition, especially anti-tank missiles, secured means of communication, advice on how to coordinate operations across different regions of Syria, intelligence on Syrian Army operations and vulnerable military infrastructure.“The intelligence services of the US, the UK, France, Turkey, Jordan, and other states in the region have the know-how and capabilities to do these kinds of things,” Mr. White says. “It would be important to have cooperation from one or more of the states bordering Syria, especially Turkey, in order to establish base facilities, training camps, supply routes and infiltration routes.”On the other side of the equation, the Syrian Army has suffered from defections and desertions as well as low morale, especially among mainly Sunni conscripts in the regular brigades. But the elite units such as the Fourth Brigade and the Republican Guard remain strong and have spearheaded the crackdown against opposition hubs.

Rockets falling on Bab al-Amr in Homs – video Youtube

We’ll help rebels overthrow Syrian murderers: Hague’s warning to dictator Assad over escalation in violence
By Tim Shipman, 7th February 2012
Daily Mail

Britain is to send equipment to help the opposition oust Syrian dictator Bashar Assad after William Hague said there was ‘no limit on what resources we can provide’.

The Foreign Secretary announced plans for a dramatic escalation of support for the rebels as Syrian government forces launched yet another bloody attack on the rebel city of Homs, killing 50 more.

Mr Hague ruled out British military action but said the UK is poised to provide ‘strategic communications’ equipment to help different rebel groups work together against the ‘murderous’ regime in Damascus.

Diplomatic sources compared the situation to the war in Libya and said Britain will seek to provide radios and mobile phones and work with Turkey and other neighbouring nations to allow rebels to broadcast radio programmes into Syria.

The UK will also back fresh European Union sanctions later this month designed to ‘fracture the regime’.

That will see a new crackdown on activities by the Syrian Central Bank and imposing travel bans and asset freezes on regime officials to encourage them to abandon Assad.

Mr Hague recalled the British ambassador to Syria yesterday for talks as violence erupted again, which prompted the U.S. to withdraw all its embassy staff for security reasons.

Yesterday Syrian forces bombarded Homs, in the west of the country, killing 50 people in a sustained assault on several districts.

That followed a massacre of more than 200 people by tanks and artillery on Friday night, bringing the total death toll since last March to more than 5,400.

Yesterday’s assault saw government troops deploy multiple rocket launchers, as well as tanks and machine guns.

The Foreign Secretary said: ‘There is no limit on what resources we can provide.

We have provided training in documentation of human rights abuses, in strategic communications and so on. We may be able to do more in the future.’

Mr Hague also announced plans for a new contact group to help the Arab League plan to end the bloodshed

It will see the EU, the Arab League and other countries come together to ‘co-ordinate intensified diplomatic and economic pressure on the regime, and to engage with Syrian opposition groups committed to a democratic future’.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2097480/Syria-violence-William-Hague-warns-dictator-Assad-help-rebels.html#ixzz1lipB1kSq

Syrian opposition group Free Syrian Army said 11 Iranian pilgrims, who were taken hostage, will be released, Tabnak reported Feb. 6. The group released a statement saying that the Turkish authorities had mediated the release of the kidnapped Iranians.

Israel: We will act to prevent Syria’s chemical weapons from reaching Hezbollah Telegraph

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February 6, 2012
In Syria, We Need to Bargain With the Devil
By NICHOLAS NOE

Beirut
It is not enough, then, to blame Russian and Chinese vetoes at the Security Council or even the murderous Assad regime for the danger that is gripping the region right now — even if they deserve much of the blame.

Instead, Washington should adopt a realistic, albeit distasteful, strategy that seeks to steadily defuse the conflict rather than watch it explode in everyone’s face. And that means dealing with Mr. Assad.

MR. ASSAD is a brutally repressive and dangerous leader who is responsible for most of the death and destruction that has plagued Syria in recent months, but the consequences of pushing Iran, Syria and Hezbollah beyond their red lines will most likely be far worse.

America must therefore dispense with the inconsistent maxim that bargaining is morally prohibited when a leader is deemed to have gone beyond the pale — especially when bargaining could actually mitigate future fallout, while eventually securing one’s interests and values.

The main reason for making a deal with Mr. Assad right now — even one where he is initially offered more carrots than sticks — is precisely that a Western-led process that steadily undermines his ability and desire to use violence would stabilize a quickly deteriorating regional situation, gradually opening up Syria’s political system and reducing repression over time.

Thankfully, America and its allies are far more powerful than Syria, which means they possess the tools and flexibility to see such a strategy of pre-emptive concessions through to a successful conclusion.

Might the Turkish Military Intervene in Syria?
by Dr. Can Kasapoglu

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 163, February 8, 2012

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: With Russia and China vetoing a UN Security Council resolution seeking an end to the violent repression in Syria, there are almost no options left for a negotiated end to the crisis. This may bring Turkey to consider military intervention in Syria in coordination with the US and Saudi Arabia

Introduction

The recently vetoed draft resolution of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) obligated the Syrian Army to return to their barracks, allow peaceful demonstrations, and swiftly hold democratic elections. The rejected offer also recognized the “sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity of Syria,” and would not “compel states to use force or threat of force.” This may have been the final opportunity for peaceful transition.

A December 2011 Turkish Supreme Military Council declaration indicates that one of the discussed agendas was “preparation of war capacity of the Turkish Armed Forces.” Considering Ankara’s hardening rhetoric towards Damascus’ violent crackdown, which has continued to intensify since the UNSC double veto, there looms the possibility of Turkish military intervention to end the turmoil in Syria.

In an Al-Arabiya interview, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that he hoped an intervention wouldn’t be required but “if there is a humanitarian tragedy, a disaster, of course the international community and the UN cannot be silent.” He added that if the Arab League (AL) initiative fails and killings continue, Turkey would not tolerate it.

Turkey has reportedly sought two major parameters for the legitimacy of a possible military operation: the full failure of the AL initiative and a UNSC decision. At this point, two critical questions should be raised: first, whether Moscow and China can be “convinced” at least to abstain in another UNSC vote, and second, if the bloody crackdown continues to intensify in Syria, whether Turkey can play a role in a non-UNSC approved military mission?

Encouraging Factors for Turkish Intervention

Ankara has already openly recognized the legitimacy of the Syrian National Council (SNC), indicating that it is a peaceful opposition platform. However, while the UNSC resolution draft was being vetoed by Russia and China, Damascus’ atrocity has cost additional lives. Given the current circumstances, Turkey’s shift to a rhetoric emphasizing the right of self-defense of the peaceful Syrian opposition would not be a surprise. There are four main factors that might pave the way for Turkish military intervention, even without a UNSC resolution.

The first parameter is Turkey’s position in the larger sectarian power struggle between the new-born Sunni bloc and the Shiite – Iran-Syria-Hizballah –alliance in the region. Anti- and pro-regime rallies in Syria have become a show of force by Sunni groups and pro-government Alawites. Other groups, such as the Christians and Druze, worry about possible religious oppression and much uncertainty after Assad’s potential demise. Electoral results in Egypt and domestic violence in Iraq consolidate these worries.

Second, Syria’s Kurdish presence in the PKK terrorist organization can be an exacerbating factor. One of four or five PKK militants is of Syrian-Kurdish origin and holds a significant place in the HPG, the armed wing of the PKK. HPG members include notorious figures like Fehman Hussein, who is in great part responsible for the recent violent activities against Turkey. Additional turmoil in Syria will allow greater freedom of action for the Syrian Kurds. The terrorist organization is ready to wage a proxy war against Turkey, and the Baathist regime is preparing to back this action. It should be emphasized that PKK violence has always provoked Turkey into cross-border military operations.

Third, the rising mistrust between Ankara and Damascus has greatly harmed the relations, so much so that an official Syrian news agency labeled the recent Turkey-GCC meeting a “conspiracy” against Syria. Under current circumstances, Turkey cannot allow the Baathist rule to continue running the country.

Finally, Turkey’s new foreign policy paradigm promotes “geocultural integrity” with the societies in Turkey’s historical hinterland and emphasizes a soft power concept, which aims to win hearts and minds on the Muslim street. Thus, Ankara cannot allow Damascus to create a more deadly version of the 1982 Hama massacre right on its borders, as it will be tantamount to the collapse of the perception of Turkish guardianship over the “oppressed” Muslim communities and to the fall of Turkey’s political-military leadership in the Sunni bloc.

Abstention from Military Intervention

There are also several considerations that would lead Turkey to abstain from military intervention in Syria.

First, preserving national and territorial unity has always been Ankara’s most critical security agenda. The 2003 establishment of the regional government in Northern Iraq has caused significant worries among the Turkish strategic community, as this could produce a viable autonomy model for Kurdish separatism. A possible Turkish military intervention in Syria might actually create the second Kurdish autonomy in Qamishli, which would encourage Kurdish separatist movements and augment Turkish concerns.

Second, Turkey would not commission its armed forces to overthrow the Baathist regime and then simply stand aside. After the Libya operations, Ankara was displeased with the surprise joint visit of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron, just one day before Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s scheduled visit. Moreover, Turkey would have preferred greater economic and political shares of post-Gaddafi Libya. According to some analysts, the Arab Gulf states are now encouraging Turkey to launch a military intervention in Syria by promising economic rewards. However, Ankara would expect more than economic guarantees from the Gulf States or the West – it would demand political influence over the next regime in Syria.

Finally, Turkey is concerned over whether such an intervention will exacerbate a regional war, especially when Turkish-Israeli relations are poor and the Gulf states are “military dwarfs” and cannot provide effective security cooperation. Clearly, Turkey is becoming hawkish in its indirect rivalry with Tehran – Syria and Iraq – but is still hesitant and indecisive in the direct confrontation. Ankara would not like to see its military efforts overlap a possible Israeli strike against Iran and certainly does not want to be perceived as aiding Israel by destroying a key ally of Iran.

Conclusion

Without Turkey’s cooperation, any military intervention in Syria would be impossible, as such an operation cannot exclude the second largest land force in NATO and its 877 km-long border with Syria. Furthermore, the Gulf states would still need a regional guarantor to counterbalance Iran, Syria’s close ally, in military and geostrategic aspects.

Will Turkey await a UNSC resolution for military intervention? This would be preferable, though any non-UNSC approved action would likely force such a resolution. However, if Russia or China insist on vetoing UNSC decisions, and if the Assad dictatorship continues to physically destroy the opposition, then Turkey can deploy its armed forces to stop the humanitarian tragedy. Again, Turkey’s preference is not for unilateral action, thus it would probably seek cooperation from the US and the Gulf states.

At this juncture, the activities of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Ankara’s relations with it are expected to become more important. The first meeting between the SNC and FSA took place in late 2011 near Turkey’s Hatay province, where Syrian refugees have settled and Colonel Riyad Al-Asaad of the FSA resides. Integrating the SNC and FSA was a critical move, as peaceful demonstrations had no viable chance against Assad’s security apparatus, which was familiar with leveling guns to its own citizens.

Now Turkey will probably foster its support of the FSA in order to prevent the destruction of the opposition groups. However, such a move could provoke Damascus to engage in heavier crackdowns on the Syrian people. In turn, the humanitarian tragedy may trigger a Turkish military intervention. Actually, it is argued, this scenario is not far from becoming a reality.

Can Kasapoglu, who holds a Ph.D. from the Strategic Research Institute at the Turkish War College, is a visiting post-doctoral researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

BESA Perspectives is published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family

U.S., allies weigh options in Syria,  By Patrick J. McDonnell and Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times

It’s titled “Economic Clouds Darken Turkey’s Diplomatic Horizon in the Middle East”
Region: Middle East
By Nader  Habibi

The “Silent Bloc”.. Acquiescing to Tyranny Willingly or Out of Fear
Ghassan Al-Mufleh – Arab Reform Initiative

Syria-revolution1.jpgThree months after the onset of the Syrian revolution, Arab intellectual Burhan Ghalioun said in response to a question about the silent majority, “I believe that there actually is a significant, not-so-small group of Syrians who remain silent. One of the main reasons for their silence is their concern for stability. Here, we are speaking of businessmen, professionals, manufacturers, and economists. The livelihoods of these people require stability, and they believe that the Assad regime secures this stability.” Syrian journalist Ghassan Al-Imam defines the latter as “a passive, conservative group bound by its traditions, by church on Sundays and the mosque on Fridays. It is financially comfortable and its main concern is the preservation of security and stability.” Yemeni activist Khaled Mukrad Al-Muqattari says, “in order to stoke up the revolution, we need to mobilise the silent blocs and define the revolution not as a crisis between the opposition Joint Meeting Parties and the central authorities, but as a revolution aimed at uprooting corruption, i.e., the people’s revolution.”  To read the whole paper, click here

Watch Syrian Instability: How Would Rest of World Respond? on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.

Ray Suarez discusses other countries’ diplomatic and military options and the mounting pressure on Assad’s regime with the University of Oklahoma’s Joshua Landis and Steven Heydemann of the United States Institute of Peace.

Many readers have asked me to post the location of the League of Arab States Observer Mission to Syria:
Report of the Head of the League of Arab States Observer Mission to Syria
for the period from 24 December 2011 to 18 January 2012
http://www.innercitypress.com/LASomSyria.pdf

The US embassy was closed today. Its many Syrian employees are now looking for jobs. I got to know many of them over the years. They were always professional, welcoming and kind. More and more businesses are being shuttered.

Col. Adnan al-Asaad, the Colonel who claims to lead the Free Syrian Army, says on the BBC that the Syrian National Council are traitors who have done nothing for the Syrian people. He claims that they have given no material or political support to the military effort.

Hillary Clinton warns of ‘brutal civil war’ in Syria, By PATRICK J. MCDONNELL – Los Angeles Times

The following Telegraph story based on the account of defecting general Mustafa Ahmad al-Sheikh presents a compelling picture of chaos within the ranks of the Syrian army, just as this CBC story: Syria’s fractured opposition, a long way from victory,describes a divided opposition. Most observers believe an end to the bloody stalemate is a long way off. Even if the Syrian military is weak, the opposition forces have a lot of building to do before they can capitalize on the weaknesses of the Assad regime to destroy it.

It will take a major effort by opposition sponsors to build up a force capably of bringing down the Syria army.  Sanctions have seriously undermined government efforts to finance its military, but they have equally impoverished the average Syrian and businessman who can be expected to support the opposition.

Syria’s most senior defector: Assad’s army is close to collapse
Bashar al-Assad’s army is close to a collapse that could plunge the Middle East into a “nuclear reaction”, its most senior defector has told The Sunday Telegraph.

By Richard Spencer, 05 Feb 2012
Syrian army General Mustafa Ahmad al-Sheikh, the second in command in northern Syria in charge of intelligence Photo: AFP

In his first full-length newspaper interview, General Mustafa al-Sheikh, who has taken refuge in Turkey, gave an apocalyptic insider’s view of the state of the regime – despite its attempt to reassert control this weekend.

He said only a third of the army was at combat readiness due to defections or absenteeism, while remaining troops were demoralised, most of its Sunni officers had fled, been arrested, or sidelined, and its equipment was degraded.

“The situation is now very dangerous and threatens to explode across the whole region, like a nuclear reaction,” he said.

The failure of President Assad to keep a tight grip even on the towns and suburbs around Damascus, some of which have driven out the army for periods in recent weeks, has led to a reassessment of his forces’ unity.

When Gen Sheikh fled over the border from his town in the north of the country in the second half of November, he thought the army could hold out against a vastly outnumbered opposition for a year or more. Now, he said, attacks by the rebels’ Free Syrian Army were escalating as the rank and file withered away due to lack of belief in the cause.

The Assads’ increasing reliance on loyalists from their own Alawite minority meant Sunni officers had fled, were under house arrest or at best marginalised and distrusted.

“The army will collapse during February,” he said. “The reasons are the shortage of Syrian army personnel, which even before March 15 last year did not exceed 65 per cent. The proportion of equipment that was combat ready did not exceed that, due to a shortage of spare parts.

“The Syrian army combat readiness I would put at 40 per cent for hardware and 32 per cent for personnel.

“They are sending in elements from the Shabiha (militia) and the Alawite sect to compensate, but this army is unable to continue more than a month. Some elements of the army are reaching out to the FSA to help them to defect.”

Gen Sheikh is not an impartial observer. He is negotiating with the Syrian National Council and the FSA over his future role in the offensive against President Assad. Even now, few analysts or diplomats would agree with his view, believing that the regime, though weakened, has the resilience to cling on to power for months, if not years.

“That the government’s days are numbered can no longer be in serious doubt, but just how many it has left remains an open question,” Yezid Sayigh, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment, wrote this week . “The regime cannot win, but it certainly can resist and prolong the conflict.”

Gen Sheikh said he had battled with his conscience before fleeing, mindful of his 37 years’ service and of possible retribution against his extended family. He said the final straw had been a sexual assault by soldiers who took turns to attack a young bride at a village near the town of Hama. He believes the army has become a ‘crazy killing machine’, and that without a solution within a fortnight, “the whole region will flare up”.

“The region is strained to the limits because of the role of Iran,” he said. “The Syrian regime has helped transform it into a base for Iranian conspiracies.”

He said that some of the possible solutions – buffer zones, humanitarian corridors – were no longer relevant, even in the unlikely event of United Nations security council backing.

“There is no time,” he said. “There is a serious acceleration under way due to the collapse of the army and the security system.

“We want very urgent intervention, outside of the security council due to the Russian veto. We want a coalition similar to what happened in Kosovo and the Ivory Coast.”

Syria on brink of civil war as diplomacy fails to dislodge Assad
As Arab countries lose patience with diplomatic effort, Qatar rumoured to be arming Free Syrian Army with Saudi blessing
Ian Black, Middle East editor

….”The SNC’s whole strategy was for the cavalry to come over the hill – whether that meant the Arab League, the UN or Nato,” said a Damascus-based diplomat. “They don’t have an alternative. Their whole raison d’etre has disappeared.” In any event, prospects for a negotiated end to the uprising look even bleaker than before.

Perhaps, though, suggested analyst Rime Allaf, there is a silver lining. “Russia’s veto showed that Assad’s supporters are not really prepared to negotiate,” she said. “Everything is clearer now that we know – even if things will get worse.” On the ground, the activists of the local co-ordination committees and the fighters of the Free Syrian Army already sound more defiant. “In the coming days, many Syrians are going to do a lot of soul-searching ultimately leading to a decision to support armed struggle,” one activist tweeted. “We have to depend solely on Syrians to liberate ourselves,” insisted another. “Where do I donate to buy arms for the Free Syrian Army?” asked a third

Overnight, demonstrations in the suburbs of Damascus – in solidarity with Homs and in support of the FSA –displayed growing readiness to risk everything. But the balance of forces between the regime and even its armed opponents remains terrifyingly unequal. In Homs, BBC correspondent Paul Wood reported from inside the city, it was a battle of “Kalashnikovs versus tanks.”

Propaganda is certainly playing a role. Initial claims of hundreds of dead in the shelling of the Khaldiyeh area of Homs were revised downwards by one opposition group on Sunday as a Syrian minister lambasted “fabricated” information in a “hysterical media war conducted by the armed terrorist gangs and their mouthpieces.” The bloodshed and destruction though, are real enough.

Vetoes leave Syria headed for a bloody stalemate
By Randa Slim, Special to CNN, Sun February 5, 2012

… The double veto at the United Nations marks the beginning of the proxy regional game: armed opposition under the leadership of the Free Syrian Army — funded by Arab Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, trained by Turkey — waging a protracted fight against the pro-regime military and paramilitary groups funded and trained by Iran and Russia.

Despite recent limited success in defending restive cities and taking control of territory in places like Zabadani and Homs, the Free Syrian Army remains more a collection of disparate groups of defectors than it is an organized army. Its headquarters are in a refugee camp inside Turkey close to the Syrian border. The number of fighters is estimated to be in the range of 10,000 to 30,000.

To wage an effective military campaign against an army that numbers in the hundreds of thousands, they need weapons, training and operational support. Only when the regime’s military superiority is threatened will we start to see defections in its senior ranks….

UK condemns Syria resolution veto

Britain accused Russia and China of encouraging the Syrian regime’s “killing regime” after they vetoed a United Nations resolution seeking an end to the violent repression. Foreign Secretary William Hague joined international condemnation of their stance amid protests at Syrian embassies around the world that led to six arrests in London.

Anger was fuelled by a renewed assault on the city of Homs by security forces overnight which is thought to have killed upwards of 240 people in the bloodiest day of the 11-month crackdown.

Exposed: The Arab agenda in Syria
By Pepe Escobar in Asia times

So the report was either ignored (by Western corporate media) or mercilessly destroyed – by Arab media, virtually all of it financed by either the House of Saud or Qatar. It was not even discussed – because it was prevented by the GCC from being translated from Arabic into English and published in the Arab League’s website.

Until it was leaked. Here it is, in full.

The report is adamant. There was no organized, lethal repression by the Syrian government against peaceful protesters. Instead, the report points to shady armed gangs as responsible for hundreds of deaths among Syrian civilians, and over one thousand among the Syrian army, using lethal tactics such as bombing of civilian buses, bombing of trains carrying diesel oil, bombing of police buses and bombing of bridges and pipelines.

Uprising finally hits Aleppo – Reuters

Months of relative calm in Aleppo were shattered when shabbiha militiamen killed at least 10 people after pro-democracy demonstrations erupted last week in the city which, together with adjoining towns, has a population of several million people, activists said.

The killings, the deadliest in the city during the 11-month uprising, happened in the tribal Marjeh neighborhood after security forces fired at a rally demanding Assad’s removal, they said.

Some activists said those killed were all demonstrators while others said most were killed in clashes that followed the shooting on the protest.

“The difference between Aleppo and the rest of Syria is that Hassoun and the other clerics have remained quiet, and that the shabbiha the regime has recruited are actually Sunnis from the city, not Alawites,” one businessman in the city said.

Syrian Rebels’ Supply Lines
February 3, 2012 | Stratfor
Summary

To expand its operations in Syria, the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) must secure supplies of weapons, food, water and other necessities. The most important supply lines for the rebels — though also the most difficult to maintain — come from Lebanon. The Syrian regime has a vast intelligence network in Lebanon to try to constrict this critical line of supply, but increasing activity across the Lebanese-Syrian border does not bode well for the Syrian regime’s defenses at home or its position in Lebanon.

Fighting over Syria at the UN
By Victor Kotsev

Some analysts say that the ongoing confrontation at the United Nations Security Council over Syria brings back memories from the Cold War; the analogy, however, is far from perfect. The face-off and all the bargaining that is apparently going on under the counter is more symptomatic of a situation where multiple players and alliances vie for power in a free-for-all brawl than of the bipolar world order that ended a little over two decades ago.

The government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad seems doomed, but its day of reckoning might take some time to come….

The tyrant’s wife from Acton;
She’s British-born and raised, intelligent, liberal and beautiful – so why is she married to a President who has murdered 5,000 of his own people? Martin Fletcher explores the enigma of Asma Assad
Martin Fletcher, 3 February 2012, thetimes.co.uk

INSIGHT-Syria’s Assad set for long conflict
By Mariam Karouny, 3 February 2012
Reuters News

DAMASCUS, Feb 3 (Reuters) – With the enemy at the gates, Bashar al-Assad was dining out. The sound of gunfire and explosions carried to central Damascus as his troops clashed in the suburbs last Saturday with rebels who had seized towns near the capital. Masked gunmen erected checkpoints on the city outskirts. But Syria’s 46-year-old president, outwardly unfazed, put on a show of business as usual for fellow patrons of the smart downtown restaurant where he spent the weekend evening.

“He hasn’t changed his lifestyle,” said a politician from neighbouring Lebanon, a regular visitor to Syria, who has met Assad several times since the Syrian uprising began last March. “He spent the evening at a Damascus restaurant,” he added, speaking privately to Reuters about the president’s movements on Jan. 28, when the appearance of forces flying flags of the Free Syrian Army at the very edge of the capital had some, excitable, observers reckoning Assad’s life expectancy in just weeks…..

Charles Krauthammer: Toppling Syria would undercut Iran’s influence

Inside Syria: Escalating violence pushes country toward full-blown war (2:13)
Produced by Brett Gering, Reuters TV
Joshua Landis on Reuters TV

Landis Talks About Syria’s Assad Regime
Listen to the Story on All Things Considered, [4 min 44 sec]-
Audie Cornish talks with Joshua Landis, January 30, 2012

U.N. Security Council Meets: Syria’s Assad May Be Under Pressure, but He’s Not on His Way Out Yet
By Tony Karon | January 31, 2012 | Time

The Front Row, The New Yorker, Online Only
January 31, 2012, Images from Syria
Posted by Richard Brody

Ossama Mohammed

There’s an open letter by Syrian artists published today in Le Monde—the filmmakers Hala Alabdalla and Ossama Mohammed, the actress Reem Ali, and the cartoonist Ali Ferzat are among its first fifty signatories—titled “Deliver Syria So That It Regains the Right to Live and to Create!”….

Foreign Policy

Security Council debate on Syria sputters

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Top news: Arab and Western states spent Tuesday calling on the U.N. Security Council to adopt a resolution urging Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down and delegate power to his deputy over his crackdown on an 11-month-old uprising, which has grown increasingly violent. But Russia and China, both veto-wielding Security Council members, remain unconvinced.

Vladimir Chizhov, Moscow’s envoy to the European Union, explained on Wednesday that Russia would veto the draft resolution unless it explicitly ruled out military intervention in Syria, while Li Baodong, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, told the Security Council that China opposed the “use of force” and “pushing for forced regime change” in Syria. “Behind all the arguments lurked the ghost of Libya,” the New York Times observes.

SNC News

Bahiya Mardini catalogs the growing differences that are dividing members of the Syrian National Council, the main opposition organization that Washington is cultivating. They are fighting over finances, which are not transparent. They are also fighting over the proper relationship with Syria’s growing militias, which seek to coordinate under the umbrella organization of the Free Syrian Army.

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Rebels Without a Clue: Why can’t the Syrian opposition get its act together?
BY JUSTIN VELA | JANUARY 31, 2012 – Foreign Policy

Muqdad’s frustration with the Syrian National Council (SNC), the body intended to serve as the political representation of the Syrian opposition, has grown. He has diligently traveled around Turkey, arranging coverage of the Syrian uprising by major media outlets, holding meetings in Western embassies, and coordinating with activists inside the country. In the meantime, he has come to see the SNC as disorganized, disconnected from the Syrians on the ground, and out of step with the broad spectrum of Syrian society.

“We know it is impossible to be 100 percent representative of the nation or the opposition,” Muqdad told me. “[But the SNC] does not know the principles of running the opposition.” …

It’s not only Muqdad whose initial optimism regarding Syria’s organized opposition has faded. A wide range of activists and diplomats are voicing concerns with the SNC, criticizing its lack of cohesion and effectiveness. While the majority of them have not given up on the council, they paint a picture of an organization out of touch with the protesters on the ground and dominated by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

“No one from the SNC has influence inside Syria. Most members of the SNC are jumping on a train that started from the street,” says Ammar Qurabi, a Syrian human rights activist, arguing that SNC leaders are trying to use the momentum of the demonstrations to take political power. Qurabi refuses to work with the SNC and plans to launch his own opposition group in early February

The SNC is composed of a nine-person executive committee, sitting on top of an approximately 250-person body. The organization’s leadership is primarily made up of Sunni Arabs, and though it has made an effort to include members of other sects and ethnicities, few are present on the council.

Qurabi notes that the SNC has been particularly negligent in incorporating members of Assad’s Alawite sect. “No Alawite on the executive council — that is a scandal,” he says. “Especially when we fight Assad, who says, ‘I am Alawite. I protect Alawites’?” ….

“The Free Syrian Army could leave them in the dust unless the SNC can do something for the FSA,” the diplomat worries. …

One particularly damaging stumble occurred when SNC Chairman Burhan Ghalioun signed a draft agreement with the National Coordination Committee,..

The most divisive issue surrounding the SNC, however, clearly remains the prominent role played by the Muslim Brotherhood. “The Muslim Brotherhood is the only party in town,” says the Ankara-based Western diplomat. …

Muqdad’s initial optimism about the SNC faded, he says, when he realized the extent of the Brotherhood’s dominance. While he has been in close touch with Western diplomats, he thinks that non-SNC members have been blocked from speaking publicly and that the SNC takes credit for activities that it was not involved in.

“We have no problem with [the Brotherhood] as a political party,” explains Muqdad, a Sunni Muslim who joined the opposition in 1999 and claims to have spent years living underground. “[But] they are using the wrong ways to lead.” …

The Brotherhood’s prominence has also opened old wounds with former members of the Syrian military, who had counted the Islamist movement as its primary domestic foe before the current revolt. A defected Syrian soldier in the Free Officers Movement, which is aligned with the Free Syrian Army but does not take orders from it, describes the Brotherhood as “malignant.”

“[The Free Officers Movement] has a limited relation with the SNC because they are controlled by the Muslim Brothers,” he told me.

The officer, a Sunni, said that the Brotherhood’s presence was particularly problematic in Syria due to the large number of minorities in the country. It would be difficult to convince minorities, especially the Alawites, that their rights would be guaranteed with the Muslim Brotherhood steering the political opposition, he says.

Mohammed Farouk Tayfour, the deputy secretary-general of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood, insists that his movement will cooperate fairly with other opposition groups. …

“All Syrians have the mentality that they want to be president,” Muqdad says. “Except me. I want to be on Miami Beach.”

U.S. spy chief says Syria’s Assad cannot hold power MSNBC

Thomas Pierret writes that Free Syrian Army members took a tank from loyalist forces and used it against them: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g32jed0lN3M

Sectarian attack kills 14 of same family in Syria
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis
AMMAN | Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:49pm EST

(Reuters) – Militiamen loyal to President Bashar al-Assad killed 14 members of a Sunni family in the city of Homs on Thursday in one of the grizzliest sectarian attacks in the ten-month uprising raging in the Alawite-dominated country, activists and residents said….
“Alawites who had remained in Karm al-Zeitoun mysteriously left four days ago, and the rumor was that they did so on orders by the authorities. Today we know why,” said a doctor in the district who did not want to be named.

“We also have seventy people wounded. Field hospitals themselves are coming under mortar fire,” he said. Hamza, an activist in Homs said that the attack was “pure revenge” for shabbiha members being killed by army defectors loosely grouped under the Free Syrian Army.

He said Sunni families were fleeing Karm al-Zeitoun to other parts of the city, and several Sunni neighborhoods, such as Bab Sbaa, also came under fire. Tit-for-tat sectarian killings began in Homs four months ago, following armored military assaults on Sunni areas of the city by forces led by members of Assad’s minority Alawite sect.

Mass killings have included Alawites in micro-buses on the way to their villages near Homs and Sunnis stopped at a roadblock while heading to work at a factory. Women from the two sects have been abducted and killed also, activists said.

The killings have raised the prospect of the pro-democracy protest movement against Assad turning into a civil war, as his opponents take up arms and fight back against loyalist forces cracking down on demonstrators.

New Jihad Group in Syria Announces Its Establishment – MEMRI

A new jihad group, Jabhat Al-Nusra Li-Ahl Al-Sham, (“The Front for the Protection of the Syrian People”) whose goal is to topple the Syrian regime, has released a video announcing its establishment. The 16-minute video, which was produced by the group’s media company Al-Manara Al-Baida (“White Lighthouse”), was posted January 24, 2012 on the jihadi forum Shumoukh Al-Islam after a two-day promotion campaign that included large banners and a countdown to the release….

In tumultuous Syrian city, kidnapping trade booms
January 27, 2012, Daily Times, Pakistan

In Homs, members of the same minority sect to which Assad himself belongs kidnap Sunni Muslims. Those who are part of the Sunni majority, backbone of protests against 42 years of autocratic Assad family rule, go after Alawites.

So far, sectarian violence and killing are rarely the goals of the abductions. But the kidnapping trend in the city of one million people, Syria’s third largest, has taken on a logic of its own.

Some seize people for money in Homs, where the bloody turmoil paralysing the city has left thousands jobless. Others kidnap to trade hostages. And some simply feel that having captives on hand could serve as leverage later. Residents say police write reports but never take action. “There is no one to complain to. There’s no law. You either sit and wait for God’s mercy, or you kidnap too. Homs is now in the hands of hooligans. Rationality is gone,” said Jamal, 30, an Alawite driver held for five days.

Stories like his are hard to verify, as government restrictions and the ongoing violence curb media access. But human rights groups and the government itself have chronicled dozens of kidnapping cases. All of those interviewed spoke by Skype, to avoid the telephone monitoring of security services. In Homs, near-empty streets are patrolled by jittery soldiers hiding behind stacked sandbags. Residents shut themselves inside by dusk to avoid kidnappers waiting under the cover of darkness.

Even going out in the daytime is risky now. Jamal was kidnapped at noon. “I was driving out of the market. Four men with Kalashnikovs waved me down. I sped away because I knew what would happen.” But a hidden car raced out of an alley and cut him off. “They dragged me out of my car and beat me. They took my two mobile phones, 2,500 liras ($40) in my pocket and my shoes.” Jamal was then taken to a house where he was crammed into a room with 10 other Alawites, held hostage for days on end. “It was the house of a guy people call ‘The Frowner’. He’s a creep. He runs the kidnapping scheme in that neighbourhood. It was such a farce, I stopped worrying I would die,” he said.

The kidnappers let Jamal call his family and tell them they needed to pay 150,000 lira (around $2,500) for his release and another 300,000 to get back his car. “My family is poor. They don’t have much money, so they talked to some of the Alawite thugs in our neighbourhood hoping to get some Sunnis released in exchange for me,” Jamal said.

In Syria, many caught ‘in the middle’
By Nic Robertson, CNN January 24, 2012

In places like Homs, the cradle of the uprising, the writing is on the wall for the rest of the country. Some neighborhoods have thrown out the government completely, such as in the Baba Amr district, where the Free Syrian Army has control. Communities have divided on sectarian lines. Many Christians have fled to Damascus. Garbage is piled high in the streets, electricity is cut, civilian causalities mount, and on the other side of the impromptu front-line barricades, the death toll of government soldiers creeps up as well.

A drive around Homs reveals a medieval-style siege, multiple checkpoints to move between neighborhoods, even a deep new ditch in places rings the city. But the uprising continues.

The opposition in Homs is better organized. A new council has been formed, it has a budget — money, some say, is coming from the Gulf — and runs medical and humanitarian supplies.

But the council is not the only show in town. Salafists are moving in too, Islamic radicals, many with terror tactics honed in neighboring Iraq. Reports abound of infighting both inside and outside Syria, the hard-liners already jockeying for post-al-Assad power.

If war escalates, as it surely seems it will, expect a long and bloody campaign. As the man in the middle I met on my way back to London told me: “We are afraid of the men with guns, afraid the radicals will impose their backwards views on us.”

We Intervene in Syria at Our Peril, By Ed Husain, Feb 1 2012

Western military involvement would worsen violence, not end it, and could spread the conflict beyond Syria’s borders.

Supporters of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad attend a rally in Damascus / Reuters

I was living in Syria the last time that the world was talking about President Bashar al-Assad’s imminent demise. With neighboring Iraq’s Saddam Hussein (a Ba’ath party leader, like Assad) overthrown, many of my students at the University of Damascus anticipated that soon we could remove the portraits of Assad from our classrooms. For encouraging dissent, I was monitored by the dreaded secret service, the mukhabarat. During my two-year stay in Syria, I was detained at airports and threatened with deportation if I did not stop calling for democracy. I was branded a CIA agent by regime-loyalist students who objected to my patronage of a student debate society in Damascus — an early attempt to encourage young people to think freely.

I supported the removal of Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, but I also learned from the many mistakes that followed. Much like Iraq under Saddam, the ruling Ba’ath party in Syria controls almost every aspect of public life: business, military, media, police, education, and even religious institutions. Regime change in Syria would be bloody and protracted. I still maintain frequent contact with friends in Syria, and visited the country regularly until late 2010. When friends in Washington, DC, such as the normally measured Steven Cook present the U.S. with a false choice of intervening militarily or seeing Assad stay in office longer, as he did in a recent article on this site, I worry.

From Informed Comment

On Tuesday, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, slammed al-Maliki for his anti-Sunni policies, warning in essence that if the Shiite-dominated army represses Iraq’s Sunnis, Turkey (a Sunni-majority country) would feel constrained to intervene. Turkey has already made military incursions into Iraq in hot pursuit of Kudistan Workers’ Party (PKK) guerrillas who have attacked military and civilian targets in eastern Turkey.

Turkey’s embassy in Baghdad was targeted by (inaccurate) rocket fire twice last week.

Turkey’s Erdogan and Iraq’s al-Maliki are also at odds over Syria, with Erdogan calling for Bashar al-Assad to step down and al-Maliki more or less supporting the al-Assad government. (Al-Maliki is said to fear that the secular Baath Party might be overthrown by Sunni radicals who will give aid to Sunni insurgents in Iraq).

President Obama’s State of the Union Address

Obama devoted one-and-a-half paragraphs to the uprisings in the Middle East but didn’t explicitly mention America’s role in the military intervention in Libya that toppled Muammar al-Qaddafi — the centerpiece of what some have described as the Obama administration’s doctrine of “leading from behind.”

The takeaway line may have been Obama’s singling out of Syria: “In Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change can’t be reversed, and that human dignity can’t be denied”

But Obama did not say whether his administration would take any more concrete steps to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad see the light.

Around60 people have been killed in the restive city of Homs in the past two days ina brutal siege by Syrian security forces and shabbiha, militiamen, according to activists and residents. Residents claim the killings were along sectarian divides, referring to the situation as “racial cleansing.”Reports could not be confirmed, but video showed the bodies of women and children. Meanwhile the Free Syria Army has released a video of seven captured men alleged to be Iranian — five of whom are purported to be members of the Revolutionary Guards — heightening suspicions over Iranian and Hezbollah military support for Syrian regime forces. Also, the United Nations Security Council will hold a meeting today “behind closed doors” on are solution drafted by Morocco on Syria. The resolution would reflect the Arab League proposal calling for President Bashar al-Assad to yield power to his deputy and develop a transitional unity government that would hold elections within two months. Russia and China vetoed a draft resolution in October that would have condemned the regime violence in Syria.Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said this draft is also “unacceptable“maintaining that the document must rule out the use of force. Russia is believed to likely take issue with another point concerning the prevention of arms transfers. Representatives from the Arab League will meet with the Security Council on Saturday to gain support for its proposals on Syria as the group’s observer mission as been subject to great criticism.

Headlines

• A suicide car bomber killed at least 31 people and injured 60 in Iraq at a funeral procession in a Shiite neighborhood in sectarian violence that has seen casualties double those of last January.

The Eclipse of Bashar al-Assad, January 27, 2012,by Hilal Khashan

President Obama’s State of the Union Address

Obama devoted one-and-a-half paragraphs to the uprisings in the Middle East but didn’t explicitly mention America’s role in the military intervention in Libya that toppled Muammar al-Qaddafi — the centerpiece of what some have described as the Obama administration’s doctrine of “leading from behind.”

The takeaway line may have been Obama’s singling out of Syria: “In Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change can’t be reversed, and that human dignity can’t be denied”

But Obama did not say whether his administration would take any more concrete steps to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad see the light.

From Informed Comment

On Tuesday, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, slammed al-Maliki for his anti-Sunni policies, warning in essence that if the Shiite-dominated army represses Iraq’s Sunnis, Turkey (a Sunni-majority country) would feel constrained to intervene. Turkey has already made military incursions into Iraq in hot pursuit of Kudistan Workers’ Party (PKK) guerrillas who have attacked military and civilian targets in eastern Turkey.

Turkey’s embassy in Baghdad was targeted by (inaccurate) rocket fire twice last week.

Turkey’s Erdogan and Iraq’s al-Maliki are also at odds over Syria, with Erdogan calling for Bashar al-Assad to step down and al-Maliki more or less supporting the al-Assad government. (Al-Maliki is said to fear that the secular Baath Party might be overthrown by Sunni radicals who will give aid to Sunni insurgents in Iraq).

Turkey: Intervention in Syria: What Next? — Ru?en Çak?r:

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davuto?lu’s interview on Al Arabiya channel can be defined as a milestone in Ankara’s Syria politics. Of course, I’m referring to Davuto?lu’s open pronouncement of the possibility of Turkey’s intervention in Syria. Let’s remember the foreign minister’s words first.

“If the regime continues to kill protesters, then this goes beyond being a matter for Turkey but will become an international issue. Then, that case calls for United Nations intervention. Turkey, in the 1980s, called the United Nations to intervene to protect the Kurds from Saddam’s atrocities after the Halabja massacre. If the Arab League initiative fails and murders continue, Turkey will not hesitate to support the U.N. decision that anticipates an intervention in Syria.”

Let’s not be unfair to him. Davuto?lu is talking about an intervention in the case of a situation where several conditions must mature. In other words, the Baath regime will continue to massacre its own people and other initiatives will fail to prevent this. The U.N. will decide on a resolution and Turkey will intervene. (Indeed, here, we need to pay attention to the stress in the sentence “Turkey will not hesitate.”) When the course of events of today is reviewed, we can see that the probability of this scenario of coming true is high.

…..Frankly, Ankara has openly taken a stance against the Bashar al-Assad regime for some time, which personally does not bother me and I think this was way over due. It was more bothersome that close relations with the al-Assad family were established, ….But a significant portion of today’s Syrian opposition segments were nothing more than “Baath lovers” in line with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government’s approach.

Possible outcomes

It’s obvious that an international intervention, in which Turkey will participate, will create extremely dangerous results and our country will be negatively affected by those. First of all, we face the risk of a sectarian conflict. As Davuto?lu emphasized in the same interview, the Syrian people took to the streets as an extension of the Arab Spring for a more democratic administration to replace the oppressive Baath regime, but in time, the reaction also became directed at not only the political power, but also the Nusayri (Alawite) minority that supported it.

Even though there are more differences than similarities between the Nusayris and the Shiites, this risk should not be completely disregarded given that, together with the effect of the strategic partnership between Tehran and Damascus, Sunni-Nusayri tension in Syria could spread to the entire region as a Sunni-Shiite conflict. There will, necessarily, be reverberations of this bitter development in Turkey.

In the event that an international intervention in Syria (one that could last long) triggers a civil war, the stance to be adopted by the Kurds in this country directly interests Ankara. There are serious claims that the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has recently re-established very strong relations with the Baath regime and that al-Assad may use this organization as a tool to blackmail Ankara.

As a result, it is good and it is correct to side with the people against the Syrian regime, but it is not wise to side with military intervention.

Ru?en Çak?r is a columnist for daily Vatan in which this piece appeared on Jan 23. It was translated into English by the Daily News staff.

Syrians won’t go along with Obama’s wishes, RT, 25 January,

President Obama’s promise to bring “strong and stable democracy” to Syria alarms its population, which sees the shining examples of Iraq and Libya and realizes what fate awaits it, says Dr. Ali Muhammad, editor-in-chief of the website Syria Tribune… “Every Syrian knows that the country will never go back to what it was one year ago, but at the same time the change will be decided by the Syrian people, not by the US or anybody else,”argues Dr. Ali Muhammad…..

Hind Aboud Kabawat: The Assad delusion, 2012-01-30
National Post, By Hind Aboud Kabawat

…Ten months later, I have come to rue those words; but they do, however, capture the ambiguity that many Syrian liberals (like myself) felt about the best way to modernize Syrian society and democratize the Syrian state. We wanted political change, absolutely, but we also coveted stability. And even as the barricades went up on the streets of Cairo and Sana, Tripoli and Tunis, we believed that Damascus and Aleppo, Homs and Hama would be spared such chaos. How wrong we were….

DIPLOMACY TO REMOVE ASSAD GAINS MOMENTUM, By David Pollock and Andrew J. Tabler
WINEP – January 25, 2012

President Obama’s State of the Union address Tuesday evening had much to say about the economy, but relatively little about foreign policy. Yet one line from that brief section stands out: “And in Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change can’t be reversed, and that human dignity can’t be denied.”

This sentence, which puts the United Stated firmly behind the demise of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, is all the more striking because it followed so closely upon the president’s description of Qadhafi as “gone.” Beyond the mere fact of singling out Syria’s government for such dishonorable mention, Obama’s statement used two very specific words that loom large in a context where every word reflected deliberate decision. First was his use of “soon,” indicating an assessment that Assad does not have much time left in power. Second was “regime,” indicating an official U.S. expectation that not just Assad personally but his whole ruling clique must also go.

Equally significant were the president’s next lines, which suggest that Washington is planning diplomatic rather than direct physical intervention in the Syrian crisis. Affirming that “we have a huge stake in the outcome” of “this incredible transformation” in the Arab region, President Obama nonetheless acknowledged that “its end remains uncertain” and that “it is ultimately up to the people of the region to decide their own fate.” Even so, he asserted that the United States will “stand against violence and intimidation” and “support policies that lead to strong and stable democracies.”

And, in fact, U.S. and international diplomacy aimed at removing Assad is quickly gaining momentum. An Arab League ministerial meeting on January 22 found that the Syrian government’s “partial progress” was “not enough” and urged the establishment within two months of a “national unity government” based on a “serious political dialogue” with the opposition — all under the authority of a vice president, rather than President Assad. Not surprisingly, the Assad regime rejected this plan, arguing that it went beyond the Arab League’s authority, violated Syrian sovereignty, and represented “a conspiratorial scheme hatched against Syria” for foreign intervention “led by the Qatari government.”

At the same time, the League’s report mandates an immediate referral of its plan to the UN Security Council. Qatar’s prime minister and minister of foreign affairs, Hamad bin Jassim, and Arab League secretary Nabil al-Araby are delegated with this task. In anticipation of this maneuver, intense behind-the-scenes Security Council consultations are now underway.

Over the last few days, Western countries led by France have drafted a Security Council resolution, with senior U.S. diplomats involved in these discussions in both Paris and New York. The draft demands that Syria cooperate fully with the UN high commissioner for human rights and the special Commission of Inquiry of the UN Human Rights Council, and allow “full access for humanitarian relief.” It requests the UN secretary-general to support the appointment of a new Arab League special envoy to Syria, which media reports speculate could be Egypt’s Mohammed ElBaradei, to supplement the largely ineffective Arab League monitoring mission in that strife-torn country. And, should the Assad regime fail to comply, the draft “encourages all States” to adopt political and economic sanctions similar to those outlined by the Arab League last November, including cutting ties with Syria’s central bank.

Significantly, the absence of mandatory sanctions from this draft resolution is calculated to help secure the necessary Russian support (or at least abstention) in the Security Council….

For all of the media bias, the blood of Syrians tells the story – The National,
Faisal Al Yafai, Jan 24, 2012

The clouds of conspiracy are gathering over Syria. With more than half of Syrians supporting President Bashar Al Assad, there has been a concerted effort by the western media to minimise his domestic support while maximising criticism of his failings. In particular, the effectiveness of the observer mission is questioned, to speed the day when the United Nations authorises Nato intervention and ushers into power a more pro-western Syrian government.

That, at least, is the analysis of the situation that has been best articulated by Jonathan Steele in the Guardian and Aisling Byrne of the Beirut-based Conflicts Forum website. It is not wrong. But it is not right, either. Very few of the separate claims of this theory are inaccurate, but the way they are strung together misses the nature of what is happening in the Levant….

‘Why we have a responsibility to protect Syria’ (Shadi Hamid, The Atlantic)

“There are a number of reasons why intervention,today, would be premature…But it may not be premature in a month or in two. The international community must begin considering a variety of military options — the establishment of “safe zones” seems the most plausible — and determine which enjoys the highest likelihood of causing more good than harm. This is now — after nearly a year of waiting and hoping — the right thing to do. It is also the responsible thing to do.”

Syria: Arab League roadmap is ‘attack on national sovereignty’

“Syria rejects the decisions taken which are outside an Arab working plan, and considers them an attack on its national sovereignty and a flagrant interference in internal affairs,” state TV quoted an official as saying.

Grave abuses by both sides – that was the conclusion of the report by the League of Arab States (LAS) monitors. The League’s foreign ministers called on President Bashar al-Assad to delegate power to his vice president and form a national unity government with the opposition.

The Syrian official reacting to the Arab League’s call said the regional body should instead “assume its responsibilities for stopping the financing and arming of terrorists,” the television channel reported.

“Unanswered Questions About Syria Intervention”, by Jeremy Pressman

This is a must read.

Over the Horizon: Syria, Iran and the Enduring Allure of Airpower
By Robert Farley | 25 Jan 2012

Who shall we bomb next? Pundits and commentators have begun to fall over themselves declaring the necessity of launching military campaigns against Syria and Iran — the former to prevent a humanitarian disaster and the latter to forestall the development of a nuclear weapon. The catalyst for this enthusiasm is the success of NATO’s aerial campaign in Libya, a war that apparently vindicated the long-standing promise of advanced, precision-guided airpower to cheaply and easily solve inconvenient political problems. Unfortunately, the rediscovered enthusiasm for intervention demonstrates only that the foreign policy punditocracy is committed to serially mislearning the lessons of airpower in war…..

Steven Cook argues that the United States and NATO ought to start seriously discussing intervention in Syria. If not and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is left to massacre his political opponents, he wonders, what message will it send to the international community about the right to protect? Anne-Marie Slaughter reluctantly concurs, suggesting that Western military power could ensure the security of safe harbors and corridors for Syrian civilians. …

Former CIA unit chief Michael Scheuer discusses Syria and the Arab spring (h-t Camille Otrakji’s Syria Page)
Monday, January 16th, 2012

Michael Scheuer confirms the United States’ involvement in attempts to overthrow the Syrian regime. He explains Washington’s dilemma in dealing with the Arab Spring and how Washington’s “mindless pursuit of secular democracy” in fact created anarchy and empowered extremist Islamists.

????? ??????? ???? ?????? ??????? “????????” ???? ???? ????? “?????????? ????????? ?????” – Syria Politic publishes the biography of the member of parliament who defected

Not short, tight or shiny: new dress code could see women forced into veils – Niqash

New guidelines on how the Iraqi government’s female employees should dress have caused a furore. The conservative Ministry of Women’s affairs says it is protecting female dignity while women’s rights advocates say it’s an attack on personal freedoms. by Kholoud Ramzi in Baghdad (26.01.2012)more

Watching Syria Sadly by Professor Brian Stoddard

EU tightens sanctions on Syria
English.news.cn 2012-01-23

BRUSSELS, Jan. 23 (Xinhua) — Foreign Ministers of the European Union (EU) on Monday decided to tighten restrictive measures against Syria.

The foreign affairs council of the EU added 22 persons responsible for “human rights violations” and eight entities “financially supporting the regime” to the list of those subject to an asset freeze and a ban from entering the EU.

This brings the total number of entities targeted by an asset freeze to 38 and the number of people subject to an asset freeze and a visa ban to 108.

In response to the violence in Syria, the EU has gradually imposed a comprehensive set of restrictive measures on Syria, including an arms embargo, a ban on the import of Syrian crude oil and on new investment in the Syrian petrol sector.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton said: “Today’s decision will put further pressure on those who are responsible for the unacceptable violence and repression in Syria.”

“The message from the European Union is clear: the crackdown must stop immediately. We will continue to do all we can to help the Syrian people achieve their legitimate political rights,” said Ashton.

Against Syrian anger, Assad’s sect feels fear
By Mariam Karouny, DAMASCUS | Wed Feb 1, 2012

Why is the Syrian opposition so divided? Here are some of the main divisions running through Syrian society:

Sunni versus Alawi
Poor versus rich
Rural versus urban
Homs and Hama versus Aleppo and Damascus
Baathists versus Non-Baathists
Religious versus Secular
Saudi Arabia versus Iran
USA versus Russia

Welcome to the cocktail of the new Syrian revolution.

I returned home to Syria two weeks ago. Many of my friends were surprised that I would make the long trip at this time of gathering war.

For two weeks, I traveled (flew) between Aleppo and Damascus. I talked to rich and poor: bankers, taxi drivers, young protestors from Idlib, rank and file army soldiers stationed in Homs, senior Alawi officers, Christian and tribal Sunni families. I did my best to get a comprehensive view of what people were thinking and how they saw the future.

In what follows, I will present a raw interview-type account of three different encounters that I had. Two were with Taxi drivers. One with a soldier. Even though I had my own car and someone to drive me around, I preferred the taxis to get a better feel.

The First Encounter:

Perhaps the most telling single discussion I had was with a young smart university graduate from Idlib who was driving a taxi which he does not own. Within minutes of his discovering that I lived abroad, he boasted to me that he had taken part in two demonstrations in his home town, Idlib. We arrived at our destination in minutes, but I ask him to keep the meter running. For the next 45 minutes, we talk about the revolution while his car was parked outside my house. Here is a synopsis of our conversation:

Ehsani: Why are you protesting?

He started by describing how his first cousin was killed with 23 other cadets while in service. They were suspected of turning their backs on the army. He described how his village has since gone crazy. He then wonders why I would even ask such a question and proceeds to describe how he is unable to get employed. He calmly talks about corruption and cronyism and how they have infested the ruling party and the business elites. The Aleppo merchants are only interested in money and are in no mood to join the uprising he thought. When he appeared in those Idlib demonstrations, what was the army’s response I wondered? “They just watched,” he said. “I am not going to lie and tell you that they shoot at us.”

“What does the President have to do to gain your support from this point?” I ask. “It is too late. There is nothing” came the quick response”. How long will it take for the revolution to succeed and topple the regime? Four years came the quick response. Naturally, I act surprised. He makes a bet with me that it will be this long. The four years are needed before the country is truly starving and when even the 8-year old is forced to go  down onto the streets to join the protests. “Only then, will the regime fall,” was his explanation. He has a facebook page and he urges me to communicate with him to understand more about the revolution after I leave.

The Second Encounter:

The next day, I hear that there is a  pro-regime maseera (demonstration) under way. I spend two full hours in the city square in an attempt to understand who the participants are. I quickly realize that the Baath party is largely in charge. It is cold but most young men are asked to make a large circle and dance the dabke.  On the other side of the street, groups with a loud speaker are rallying the crowd with songs praising the President and attacking the Emir of Qatar Hamad Al-kalb (the dog).  The Syrian TV is present. Reporters are busy handing their own cell phones to people in the crowd asking them what they think. Many grab the phones and launch into a tirade against the Arab league and Emir Hamad while they urge the government to hit the insurgents hard. An important person must have arrived. He is surrounded by tough looking men pushing the crowd. I turn to one of them and wonder who this man is. “Ameen Al Hizb” was the quick response. The VIP makes it to the front of the Massera and listens to the Hamad references, smiles and heads back to his awaiting car in the distance.  One last dabke group is left. A group of 7 girls arrive. They are distinctly unattractive. They first join the young boys in the dabke circle. They then form their own mini circle in the middle. Another tough looking man seems to be in charge of this young debke crowd. The square is emptying out as it starts to rain. I decide to grab a taxi. Benzene is not available again it seems. A shortage of taxis is evident. One shows up and only decides to take me when he finds out that  my house is on his way home. No Benzene again I ask? He nods and tells me how he will drop me, head home and park the car. Then what will you do I wonder? He quickly snaps back “I will beg”.

Ehsani: How many kids do you have? Answer: Three

Where are you originally from?

Answer: Afreen

Are you a Kurd? Yes.

Are you a naturalized Syrian citizen? Yes.

Ehsani: How much do you need to live a decent life with three kids?

Answer: SYP 20,000 ($285 with SYP at 70 to the Dollar that morning).

Ehsani: How much do you make?

Answer: SYP 15,000 but I pay SYP 4800 in mortgage leaving me with about SYP 10,000 to cover everything for 5 people for a month. I quickly do the math in my head. This is about $ 1 a day per person.

Ehsani: I wonder how you manage. What do your kids demand the most when you get home?

Driver: Farrouj (chicken) which costs SYP 350.

I have three kids myself. The trip is over. I pull out a large money note and hand it to him if he promises that he buys two chickens on his way home after he drops me off. He is shell shocked and tries to refuse it. I insist but only if he keeps his promise to buy the farrouj for the kids.

The Third Encounter:

I get a call from a relative telling me how a young man in his building just came back from serving in Homs. He is allowed to see his family for three days before he needs to return. I ask if I can talk to him. That evening, a 20-year old shows up. He starts by showing me pictures with him in uniform as he sits on the front line of two warring communities in Homs. For the next 30 minutes, he describes how Alawi and Sunni neighborhoods face each other with his unit sitting in between. Both are heavily armed he claims. He seems resigned to the fact that the country faces a long ordeal as sectarian tensions mount. He is a Christian serving with 5 Sunnis. He assures me that the Syrian army is a lot stronger than many believe and that only 10-20% of its capacity has been used thus far.

Ehsani: If Damascus decides to end the Homs insurgency and use its full might, how many people would die?

Soldier: 50,000

Ehsani: What about all of Syria?

Soldier: 100,000. Presently, we have orders not to shoot. We gain little by shooting as the guns will be grabbed by others and the anger will ensure that many more join the revolution. Our unit is one of the weakest. Damascus could easily replace us with stronger divisions if the objective were to take over these neighborhoods and kill the armed elements. This is what I expect will happen at some stage, however.

Ehsani: What will you do once you are done with your service?

Soldier: “Get out of here as fast as I can. I don’t care where I go.” His cousin is sitting next to him nods in agreement. “I will swim across to Cyprus soon,” he adds.

The Aleppo Business Community:

The following morning I accompany my father to the heart of the Aleppo business world. From a nondescript “dekkane” (store),  super astute men seem to run an operation with a turnover of nearly $20 million a year.  Forget about fancy offices or executive secretaries. This is how generations of this family have conducted business – under the radar screen. How many men make up the extended family with the same family name, I ask? Nearly 5,000 I am told.

Ehsani: What has stopped the Aleppo business community from joining the uprising?

Store owner: In Aleppo, the people are wise. They are not interested in taking the country into the majhoul (unknown). We are not interested in sulta (ruling). We want stability.

Ehsani: How much of what is going on in the country is due to sectarian tensions between Sunnis like yourselves and Alawis?

Store owner: We really don’t care who is ruling the country. We care about stability and justice. We are not happy with the corruption and injustice. He then asked me if I had visited the Aleppo court system. The corruption there is mind boggling, I am quickly told. Judges pay between SYP 5 and 10 million to get the job. Every case can be negotiated and priced with his “kateb” (clerk) outside. Many times, individuals who have committed murder can walk away after a short sentence if they pay enough and change the sentence down from capital punishment (iidam). Many operatives in the court have witnesses for hire at their disposal. With enough money, you can buy any testimony-shahade.

As I leave, one man describes how tribal infighting will take this country down the tubes should the regime fall and law and order disappears. You have no idea how much vengeance (tarat) exists between our ashaer (tribes) here in Aleppo, I am reminded.

On the Economy:

The economy is reeling after nearly a year of unrest. To be sure, this is not surprising. During the early months, the local currency was largely stable. The Syrian Central Bank has always used the stable currency exchange rate as a metric of its successful management of the economy. Or, so they thought. For years, everyone was comfortable that the SYP will stay within a reasonable range thanks to ample foreign exchange reserves and a willingness to intervene when needed. This long-held assumption was severely tested as of late. The SYP has by now lost nearly 50% of its value against the Dollar. The Central bank has been powerless to stop it. No one in the country has offered an explanation. People are totally in the dark. For example, It is impossible to know the exact level of reserves at the Central Bank. This number is a national security matter. Logically, the political leadership has realized that this is a long ordeal which dictates that it is perhaps better off holding on to whatever reserves it has rather than wasting them on a futile currency intervention.

The recent devaluation to SYP 73 (the rate earlier today) has caused havoc in the business community. Most sellers of goods and commodities refuse to sell inventories unless they adjust the prices to the new rate. This is why prices have nearly doubled as talk of SYP at 100 makes the rounds. A prominent businessman describes how his local sheikh urged him and others to sell their old inventories at the old exchange rate which was his true cost. He was torn about what to do at first but then decided to ignore the advice and sell at the higher prices to reflect the new exchange rate. The exchange rate of the SYP is now nearly every household’s discussion. Every social meeting starts with the latest rate from an hour ago. The economy is entering a dollarization phase. For any commercial transaction to take place, finding where the latest exchange rate is comes first. As the effects of this currency devaluation filter through, prices at the retail level are likely to head higher. The government does not seem to have the resources to increase the salaries this time. Those on fixed incomes are being crushed.

Concluding Remarks:

According to one of my dear friends, it is impossible to model the final outcome of this crisis. What will happen to the regime and whether it will survive is impossible to forecast. One particularly astute observer assured me that the regime cannot last beyond the end of this year. Again, the person who stuck in my head the most was the young student from Idlib. Indeed, every Syrian who is in the military or who has served there in the past seemed to believe that it will be “years” before the regime is weakened enough to lose. This sentiment was shared by even those in the opposition that I spoke to. Syrians inside the country seem to be well aware of the might of the Syrian army and the security services. Perhaps this is why the hardcore elements of the opposition are pleading for foreign intervention. I think that it is highly unlikely that the regime will lose to the opposition without some form of foreign intervention and/or the Russians turning their back. Niether appears to be on the horizon.

Talk of corruption and cronyism were on everyone’s lips. This subject has been the source of  much of the anger that motivates the opposition. On the last day of my visit to Syria, I heard an analogy to describe the present condition of the regime that struck me as particularly apt. It went like this:

Bashar is driving a bus packed with passengers. Many have been on that bus for years. Those closest to him occupy the front rows of the bus. The uprising is about new faces who also want to board the packed bus. But, for them to jump in, the driver has to throw some of the current passengers of the bus to make room. Bashar looks in the rear view mirror. Who should he pick to throw off the bus? The old Baathists? Members of the Qiyadeh al-Qutriya (The Baath Regional Leadership)? Members of the family?  But those are the people who have stuck with him and helped him survive for nearly a year when few gave him a chance. Does it make any sense to throw aside his loyalists and let in new faces who are publicly asking for his head? Any rationale driver will stay the course as he realizes that changing the driver and turning over the whole bus are the true motivations of his enemies.

During one extremely interesting gathering, I was struck by how politically savvy nearly every Syrian has become. The most interesting and passionate remarks I had heard on this trip came from the women who I met.  During this same dinner, I asked what if anything could Bashar have done differently?

“When the opposition wanted the regime to pull back a step, he should have pulled back four. With the extra space at their disposal, there was more room for them to debate and argue amongst each other leaving the leadership with more time  and breathing space to contemplate their next move”.

I know that I speak for 23 million other Syrians when I worry about where this country is heading. Years ago, I used to speak of buckling our seat belts. Since the crisis started, I have referred to the country having entered a long black tunnel. As we approach the first year anniversary of these events, I wonder where in the dark tunnel we find ourselves.  My pessimistic nature tells me that we are still at its beginning.

Syria’s Assad regime is doomed, but the battle will be long and bloody
Joshua Landis
For Bitterlemons
January 26, 2012 Edition 4

The Syrian regime headed by Bashar Assad is doomed in the long run, but is likely to last longer than most believe. In December, the leader of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood stated that President Assad would fall “in the next few months”, the US State Department proclaimed Assad to be a “dead man walking”, and Israel’s defense minister insisted that Assad would fall in a matter of weeks. This has turned out to be wishful thinking.

The Assads stand atop the last minoritarian regime in the Levant and thus seem destined to fall in this age of popular revolt. When they do, the post-colonial era will draw to a final close. Following World War II, minorities took control in every Levant state thanks to colonial divide-and-rule tactics and the fragmented national community that bedeviled the states of the region. Unique in this was Palestine, for the Jewish minority was able to transform itself into the majority at the expense of Palestine’s Muslims and Christians. Neither the Christians of Lebanon nor the Sunnis of Iraq were so lucky or ambitious. Nevertheless, both clung to power at the price of dragging their countries into lengthy civil wars. The Alawis of Syria seem determined to repeat this violent plunge to the bottom. It is hard to determine whether this is due to the rapaciousness of a corrupt elite, to the bleak prospects that the Alawi community faces in a post-Assad Syria, or to the weak faith that many in the region place in democracy and power-sharing formulas. Whatever the reason, Syria’s transition away from minority rule is likely to be lengthy and violent. Levantine history suggests this as a rule.

There are three main reasons why the Assad regime is likely to last well into 2013–if not longer–despite Syria’s rapidly deteriorating economic and security conditions.

The first is the strength of the regime compared to the opposition. The military has not turned against Syria’s president. It is a professional army, which so far has a monopoly on heavy weapons in Syria. Important government officials have not defected in significant numbers. This loyalty is due in no small part to the fact that the Assad family has prepared for this moment of popular, Sunni revolt for 40 years. It has packed sensitive posts with loyal Alawis and Baathists. Some analysts estimate that 80 percent of Syria’s officer corps is Alawi. The main strike-forces, such as the Republican Guard led by Bashar’s brother, is Alawi to the man. An ambassador in Syria’s Foreign Ministry recently claimed that 60 percent of Syria’s Foreign Service officers are Alawi and only 10 percent Sunni. The sectarian nature of the elite elements of the security forces ensures a high degree of loyalty and willingness to fight. The broader Alawi community is also likely to remain loyal to the regime, even as the economy deteriorates. Almost all Alawi families have a least one member in the security forces as well as additional members working in civilian ministries, such as education or agriculture. Most fear collective punishment for the sins of the Baathist era, whether this means trials, the loss of jobs, or even worse (one irresponsible Sunni sheikh threatened that the Alawis will be ground into mince meat when defeated).

The second reason the Assad regime is likely to survive into 2013 is the disorganization and factionalism of the opposition. Through much of 2011, the Syrian opposition hoped that by remaining leaderless, as had revolutionaries in Egypt and Tunisia, the regime could be brought down largely by peaceful means: either because Bashar Assad would surrender power, a coup would dislodge him, sanctions would cause elite defections and collapse, or growing demonstrations would achieve a Tahrir square moment. By the end of 2012, these scenarios seemed ever more unlikely, and the opposition has been forced to think seriously about developing a trusted leadership, unifying its ranks, and coming up with a realistic military option to defeat the Syrian army. These objectives still seem far off

The Syrian National Council, Syria’s leading opposition coalition, remains highly factionalized and has found it difficult to unite with other opposition parties. The mere fact that the SNC membership has felt compelled to limit its leaders to a three-month term testifies to the high level of internal dissent. Burhan Ghalioun, the capable and savvy secular leader, is distrusted by many Islamists in the SNC as well as younger activists who are leading the struggle on Syria’s streets. Only recently was he denounced by members of his own party for being a traitor and dictatorial when he prematurely announce a unification plan with the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change, a coalition of leftist parties led by Haytham Manaa.

Just as important as the opposition’s political weaknesses, however, are its military limitations. The Free Syrian Army being assembled in Turkey under the leadership of Colonel Riyadh al-Asaad is no match for the Syrian army. Although armed opponents of the regime are an important development, their size, structural limitations, lack of heavy weapons, and limited command and control mean they do not yet present a real danger or alternative to the Syrian military. In fact, many analysts insist that most fighting is being done by small units organized on the local level that do not take orders from Col. Asaad or other leaders, even if they call themselves members of the Free Syrian Army. What is more, many Syrians still do not accept the notion that the regime should be brought down by military means.

The third reason that the Assad regime is unlikely to be deposed soon is that foreign powers are not eager to intervene militarily in Syria. US President Barack Obama and European authorities would find it difficult not to support military strikes on the Syrian army if they were led by Turkey or the Arab League, but neither has shown an inclination to undertake such a risky adventure.

So long as the Syrian military leadership remains united, the opposition remains fragmented, and foreign powers remain on the sidelines, the Assad regime is likely to survive, but all three of these elements are changing, even if gradually, in the favor of the opposition. The predominant role of minorities in the governments of the region, which was universal at the end of the colonial period, is being brought to a violent conclusion.

-Published 25/1/2012 © bitterlemons-international.org
Joshua Landis is associate professor and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

See the other three essays on Bitterlemons’ site

“The regime’s prospects are better than two months ago but remain dim,” Karim Emile Bitar

The Syrian revolution is now entering a new, more ominous phase. The regime has been considerably weakened and isolated. The Arab League’s mission has ended in a fiasco. The economy is in tatters. The opposition’s protests continue unabated. But the main pillars of President Bashar Assad’s support are still holding on. ….

A militarization of the revolution would empower the most radical elements, as it did in Libya, and render future democratization much more difficult. A foreign intervention would open Pandora’s box.

Those who would like Assad to fall are now confronted with the old Machiavelli vs. Kant philosophical dilemma: does the end justify the means or do the means determine the end? A comprehensive study, published by Columbia University Press and analyzing dozens of past cases, suggests that the latter is true. It indicates that if a dictator is overthrown through peaceful struggle, there is a 51 percent chance of a successful democratic transition after five years. In case of an armed struggle, the chances are only three percent.

The Syrian opposition is understandably impatient to bring Assad down and breathe freely. It should nonetheless meditate on these figures.

“Yes and no,” by Elias Samo

Can the Syrian regime survive? That is a question only a crystal ball can definitively answer. My analysis of the two primary components of the Syrian regime–a pyramidal political leadership under President Bashar Assad and a one-party political structure under the Baath party–leads me to believe the answer is “yes and no”. Yes, Assad will survive, and no, the political structure of one-party Baath rule will not….

“A sinking ship,” by Michel Nehme

Domestically, the mutiny in the Syrian army is slowly accelerating. It is beginning to pose a tangible threat to ! the military establishment, despite tight control by Baathist officers. The economy is gradually deteriorating–an indication of a long process that ultimately will topple the regime. The issue now is not whether the regime has been able to withstand or escape the storm, but rather the sense that the regime is slowly and daily getting weaker. Yet when it will finally collapse is not something that can be predicted, due to a variety of regional and international considerations….

Analyzing the largest Syria crisis Facebook polls, by Camille Otrakji

Originally appeared on Creativesyria’s “The Syria Page” blog

Several Facebook polls on the Syrian crisis have been conducted over the past year, eliciting widespread responses among Syrian and Arab Facebook users. While sample sizes vary, many are much larger than regular online polls thereby ensuring representativeness of the sample, at least among Facebook users. It is worth noting here that Facebook polls prevent account owners from voting multiple times from different computers as they usually can for other online polls. Although some online activists have more than one Facebook accounts, the effect of this bias is negligible given that activists from both sides of the political divide are expected to be equally likely to own a second account.

A significant number of responses by non-Syrian Arabs should be expected given that many of them support the Syrian revolution just as many Syrians supported the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions before them. However, since the contribution of non-Syrian Arabs to the survey remains unknown, it is impossible to tease out Syrian responses from Arab ones. Moreover, it should also be cautioned that Syrians with FB accounts are not a truly representative sample as the sampling frame excludes Syrians without FB accounts as well as Syrians with no internet access. Results, therefore should be read with these limitations in mind.

Having said that, the large sample size of the polls selected here, in addition to the consistent results across a large number of polls make them worth analysing.

Below is a selection of the largest (15,000 to 180,000 voters each, over one million votes in total, all results updated on Jan 23rd 2012) Facebook polls on the Syrian crisis, Voting and community initial biases (where the question first originated) are specified under each question.

President Assad’s popularity

Q1 Syria needs?
Answers: Freedom (42,103), Bashar Al-Assad (40,992)
Biases: Poll started within a biased pro opposition community. The bias inherent in this question is twofold: in the first place, it is a “loaded” question in that it introduces a value bias (concept of freedom) which is contrasted against Assad (by implication, authoritarian). Second, the categories freedom and Assad are not mutually exclusive for many of the respondents, thereby forcing them to choose between either Freedom or Bashar Al-Assad. This eliminates many of the votes for the Syrian President by those who value freedom the most but believe that Al-Assad should lead the country to reforms and freedom. Despite these biases the results are close to a tie.

Q2 Will you vote for Bashar Al-Assad in direct Presidential elections in Syria?
Yes (22,111), No (13,102)
No apparent biases.

Q3 Will you vote for Bashar Al-Assad next Presidential referendum?
Yes (27,642), No (8,947)
Biases: Question originated within a biased pro President community.

Q4 If a referendum was held today, are you for nominating Assad for another term?
Yes (47,615), No (42,448)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro opposition community.

Q5 Would you accept someone other than President Assad as your President?
No (22,277), Yes (19,072)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro President community, however, the question itself introduces a counter bias as it seems to force the respondent to vote for an absolute right for Bashar Al-Assad as a President of Syria.

Q6 Which number is larger on Facebook?
Assad supporters (40,652), Assad opponents (39,749)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro opposition community

Q7 Is Assad qualified to govern?
Yes (87,915), No (93,473)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro opposition community

Q8 do you want Assad to remain President of Syria
Yes (40,549), No (33,659)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro opposition community.

Q9 Do you support President Assad
Yes (22,957), No (22.523)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro Assad community.

Q10 If elections were held, who do you want?
Bashar Assad (14,513), Burhan Ghalioun (1,903), Adnan Arour (289)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro opposition community that includes many non-Syrian Arabs (Aljazeera).

Popularity of demonstrators, their allies, demands and strategies

Q11 Are you for changing the shape or colors of the Syrian flag?
No (20,593), Yes (578)
Biases: none

Q12 Do you support stopping the protests in Syria to give a chance to reforms
Yes (50,303), No (42,667)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro opposition community that includes many non-Syrian Arabs (Aljazeera poll)

Q13 Are you for, or against Aljazeera?
For (21,562), Against (37,179)
Biases: Poll originated in what appears to be a pro-opposition community that includes many non-Syrian Arabs.

Q14 Do you support a UN resolution on Syria?
Yes (16,988), No (30,589)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro opposition community that includes many non-Syrian Arabs (Aljazeera poll)

Q15 Do you support Turkish military intervention in Syria?
Yes (425), No (15,339)
Biases: Poll originated in a pro opposition community.

Q16 Do you support Russia’s policy towards Syria?
Yes (31,028), No (28,819)
Biases: Poll originated in community that includes both pro-Assad Syrians but also includes many non-Syrian Arabs who are mostly pro-opposition.

Q17 Do you support Arab sanctions against the Syrian regime?
Yes (11,105), NO (20,100)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro opposition community that includes many non-Syrian Arabs (Aljazeera poll)

Q18 Who is responsible for the deteriorating situation in Syria
The regime (15,798), the opposition (17,803)
Biases: Poll originated within a pro opposition community that includes many non-Syrian Arabs (Aljazeera poll)

Analysis:

The overall average (53 %) and mode (most frequently recurring statistic) for the President’s popularity type questions (1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9) are similar to results of other related questions/variables (as in Q12 and Q18). This suggests that despite all the shortcomings of the surveys, they do have a high degree of “internal consistency reliability”, the results for one cluster of questions measuring one concept (support) are consistent with other results measuring related variables/concepts.

Like other online polls, Facebook polls have only limited validity and reliability. Only those who own a computer and a Facebook account can answer them; the strongly opinionated are more likely to answer them than the undecided. When a question measuring popularity is asked by a Facebook page that attracts a biased community of Syrians (or Syrians and Arabs), the final results tend to reflect some of that bias especially for smaller sample sizes. Questions that originate in pro-revolution pages tend to still make it to the general community of Syrians and when they do (at larger sample sizes) the results are mostly close to the 50% mark (See Q7), and almost all results are still in Assad’s favor. Some Questions by pro regime pages even reveal results that are as high as 75% pro Assad (see Q3).Only biased and limiting questions (ex: Freedom or Assad?) result in a slightly less than 50% for President Assad but another way to read those is that President Assad’s diehard fans (they will vote for him even if he does not reform) might alone count for over 40% (see Q1)

In addition to the majority support Assad enjoys, the even larger majority that voted against Al-Jazeera, Turkish military intervention in Syria, an Arab boycott of Syria, changing the colors of the Syrian flag or against a UN vote targeting Syria, should be construed by policy makers in Washington and “the international community” that they are interfering on the side of a minority of Syrians and against the wishes of a clear majority. All the questions which measured the popularity of the protesters’ demands and their tactics revealed that the protesters’ tactics are not supported by Syrians at large.

Domestic support for Assad may be even higher given the large number of non-Syrian Arabs respondents particularly on al-Jazeera facebook page. The Arab public’s noted sympathy for the revolutionaries may well skew the results in the latter’s favour. For example, in one survey which asked if Egyptian respondents favored kicking out the Syrian Ambassador to Egypt, 60,000 (88%) of respondents said yes, while only 8,000 (12%) said no. Tunisians often demonstrate in large numbers in support of a revolution in Syria, while Saudis listen to endless lectures by TV preachers telling them dramatic stories of Alawite regime crimes against Syrian Muslims.

Moreover, in one Doha Debates(Qatar foundation)  episode  in response to a question asking if President Assad should resign, a historic vote of 91% of the mostly Arab audience said Assad should go away. All left that room convinced that they were supporting the Syrian people in their struggle. The same Qatar foundation conducted an online poll asking if the Syrian President should resign: 81% of their Arab respondents said he should whereas 55% of their Syrian respondents said they wanted him to remain in power. The poll was published and reported widely although its sample was heavily biased and small (1000 people participating, of which only 97 are Syrian).

Having said that, the overwhelming votes in favor of preserving Syria’s integrity, national security and symbols implies that despite the large number of Arab respondents, these Facebook polls also attracted a large number of Syrian respondents.

It is clear from these 18 Facebook polls that at least among the more decided group of Syrian Facebook users, President Assad enjoys a comfortable margin of support. Although many support freedom and democracy in general, or object to the President running for office again in 2014, the revolution’s specific positions and demands have little support. While respondents are almost evenly split on Russia’s position on Syria, there is much less support for an Arab boycott of Syria, little support for a UN resolution against Syria and near zero support for Turkish intervention. Interestingly, even among Arab viewers, it seems there was little tolerance for Aljazeera’s one-sided pro-revolution coverage.

The Syrian opposition leadership fared even worse with a statistically insignificant number of supporters for Burhan Ghalioun. Ghalioun’s failure to garner more than 0.12% of popular support (Q10) is a clear indication of the international community’s failure to pay attention to the Syrian people’s real preferences.

The opposition’s tactics did not win much approval either with a majority of respondents supporting dialogue rather than protests, and a similar number blaming the revolutionaries for prolonging the crisis. Viewed in combination with the even greater numbers who reject foreign intervention, it is increasingly apparent that neither the objectives nor the tactics of the SNC represent the aspirations and preferences of the vast majority of Syrians.

Nonetheless, these conclusions remain tentative considering the large number of Syrians who are not represented by these polls, such as the many poor and uneducated who cannot access Facebook. Syrians on Facebook who have an opinion either way, are split between those with almost unqualified support for President Assad and those who want democracy now. But as noted above, even this latter group of regime opponents is clearly not impressed with those who are leading the movement which claims to speak in their name.

Many thanks to Dr. Amal Saad-Ghorayeb for her kind and valuable assistance in evaluating the reliability of these polls.  

Syria rejected an Arab League proposal calling for President Bashar al-Assad to step down and advanced elections to form a “national unity government.” The Arab League plan results from the deep divisions within the Arab League about how to deal with Syria. Firm action is prevented by the split between the two main camps within the League. The Iraq, Algeria, and Lebanon camp does not want to see foreign intervention. The Gulf camp led by Qatar is eager for intervention and a tougher international line on Syria.

But even within the Gulf, important disagreements have opened up. The Emir of Qatar has spoken out in favor of Arab military intervention. Saudi Arabia is not so keen on this idea. It has to deal with the glass house factor. the Saudis are queasy about a precedent for military intervention by the Arab League being set to promote democracy. What about Bahrain or even the Shia of the Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia who have been demonstrating for change and the overthrow of the Saudi household?

Arab League calls for Assad to step aside, without the credible threat of foreign intervention, will not change much. Assad remains confident that he can contain if not beat the opposition. The UN is as divided over Syria as is the Arab League. No country is eager to lead a military intervention in Syria. Syria has become a hot-potato. International organizations are turning to each other, drawing a long face of horror over the Syrian situation and saying, “Do something. You first.”

‘The Arab League to Syria’s President: It’s time for you to go’ (Rania Abouzeid, Time)

“But instead of diplomatic politesse, proceedings were thrown into disarray after Saudi Arabia, stepped out of the background role it has played so far in the Syria crisis, to forcefully push for an end to the Syrian government’s ferocious crackdown against its opponents. For months, Qatar has taken the lead on Syria. In a move that likely persuaded other countries, especially Gulf states, to take a stronger line against Damascus, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told his counterparts that his country would withdraw its observers from the much-criticized League monitoring mission in Syria due to the continued shedding of “blood that is dear tous all.””

(Comment by JL) But Saudi did not second the Emir of Qatar’s call for Arab military intervention, an indication that it is weak on Syria. While in Saudi Arabia last week, I had the opportunity to quiz a well placed prince on this issue. He said that Saudi Arabia did not know what was motivating the Emir of Qatar to be so out-spoken on Syria but that Saudi Arabia would not participate in or encourage Arab military intervention in Syria. President Obama would find it very difficult not to back up the Arab League or Turkey if either led military intervention in Syria. NATO as well. But the UN cannot lead without a Russian “Yes” vote in the Security Council, and the US will not do so on its own. Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal from the Arab League monitoring mission is not an expression of its desire to lead, its interest in making a “forceful push” on the issue, or that it is “stepping out of its background role” on the Syria crisis, I suspect.

From a Friend in Damascus

With syp hitting 74, prices will soon go insane. Impossible for many to make ends meet. Even extended family members are running out of money by the 10th of every month. This military regime is very hard, if not impossible, to bring down. When it comes to people’s lives….simply forget it. A total meltdown. Everything has doubled in price in less than a year. Totally unprepared these guys were and are.

   ???????? ???????: ??????? ????? ?????? ??????? ???? ???? Al-Arabiyya  Ghalioun and Samir Aita discuss the Free Syrian Army and armed resistance in Syria

Syria to Start Managed Float of Currency Next Week, Central Bank Head Says
By Massoud A. Derhally – Jan 20, 2012 7:02 AM CT

Syria’s Central Bank Governor Adib Mayaleh. Photographer: Joseph Eid/AFP/Getty Images

 Syria will introduce a managed float of its currency next week, central bank Governor Adib Mayaleh said. The move will allow the pound to devalue after demand for foreign currency drove a surge in black-market rates.

“We will have a partial managed float, allow the rate to be determined by the market and intervene when necessary,” Mayaleh said in a phone interview from Damascus today. “If we see a rate, like that of 70 pounds now, which I don’t like, then we will intervene, and next week there will be a positive intervention by the central bank with the injection of foreign currency into the market.”

The pound traded officially at about 47 to the dollar before the start of protests against President Bashar al-Assad in mid-March. As the uprising spread, the central bank raised the rate to about 54 pounds in December and 57 pounds early this month. The currency traded at as much as 70 pounds per dollar on Syria’s black market this week.

From Guardian Blog

Adib Mayaleh, the central bank governor, told the FT (behind paywall) the exchange rate had “jumped a lot of steps” and they needed to control it. ….Syrian oil minister, Sufian Allaw, said sanctions were biting: “We have suffered important losses as a result of our inability to export crude oil and petroleum products.”

Syrians cope with profound economic crisis as regime tries to crush revolt, By BASSEM MROUE

Jordan’s King Abdullah: Coming Weeks Critical for Syria, Assad, Arab League, PBS NewsHour

King Abdullah II of Jordan, the first Arab leader to urge President Assad to step down, sat down with Margaret Warner Thursday to discuss his expectation of more killings in Syria, the Arab League’s role in quelling unrest there as well as the latest …

“The problem with Syria — and we’ve been here in Washington for a few days talking to our colleagues here. And I’ve been in interaction with my colleagues around the world and the Middle East — nobody has an answer for Syria. And that is the most disturbing thing.”

… “And so, if I can predict what will be happening over the near future, again, the relationship between the Arab League and the U.N. on how to take it to the next step, understanding from our experience last year that, when the Arab League comes together as a bloc and makes a decision, it’s much more easier for the international community to then move to the next phase.”

Iranian Foreign Minister on Charlie Rose Show says Iran does not send arms to Syria

Charlie Rose: … there is a sense that … Iran is supplying the Syrians with weapons…

Mohammad Khazaee: …You know, Charlie, on Syrian issue, we follow our principles. The first point is that we believe that government should listen to their people. We have made it clear. ….Second, we do not, and we have not sent any arms to Syria. …

Mohammad Khazaee: ….we have some evidences that arms have been sent by … France, to Syria to support the militia group and opposition groups ….

Iraqi government and militias supporting Pres. Assad in Syria. by Joel Wing

Joel asked me, “why Iraq and Syria have improved relations so much after Damascus was one of the main supporters of the insurgency?” My answer:

1. Because of the US presence and influence in Iraq. Both Iran and Iraq tried to push the US out of the region, when the US threatened both from Iraq. President Bush had an ambitious plan to reform the Greater M. E., which included pushing Syria out of Lebanon and ultimately regime-change in Damascus.
2. Negotiating tactic. Once the US was on the ropes in Iraq, Syria moderated its support of the insurgency in an effort to convince the US to make a trade: the reduction of US sanctions against Syria and rekindling negotiations over Golan and Lebanon in exchange Syrian help in Iraq.
3. Now that the US is out of Iraq and the Syrian revolution is under-girded by a Sunni insurgency in Syria, Damascus no longer has an interest in supporting the Sunni militias across the boarder. Both Iraq and Damascus have the common goal of suppressing Sunni militias and supporting Iran.

Ali Allawi on Iraq:

The Middle East is today experiencing a twofold upheaval of immense proportions: a dramatic acceleration of climate change, water shortages, urban growth, environmental degradation, persistent economic and resource imbalances, and population explosions that coincide with wars, invasions, foreign interventions, civil and religious strife, and mass uprisings. And the longue durée is now exerting its influence on Iraq.

The livelihood of Iraqis is overly dependent on a state that is entirely reliant on a single resource. Agriculture has effectively collapsed; the great river systems of Mesopotamia have shriveled; trade routes based on Iraq’s unique geography have vanished; and transport links have atrophied. Merchants and entrepreneurs are merely recyclers of state-owned and state-generated wealth and a previously open and culturally and religiously accommodating society has been replaced by beleaguered communities locked in laagers.

The Arab successor states to the Ottoman Empire have all proved to be unstable, prone to violence and easy targets of foreign intervention and control. Left unchecked, Iraq will remain hostage to the turbulent region in which it finds itself — and to the price of oil.

Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood tells world to isolate Assad (peacefully?)
19/01/2012

BEIRUT, (Reuters) – The leader of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood said world powers should pile diplomatic pressure on President Bashar al-Assad and he called for a no-fly zone and “safe zones” to be set up to help the Syrian leader’s opponents.

Mohammad Shaqfa told Reuters that the Arab League, which has sent monitors to assess Syria’s implementation of a plan to end 10 months of violence, should press the U.N. Security Council to take “deterrent measures” against Assad….

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Pledge of solidarity with the Revolution by 106 Alawi, Syrians – half women. On Syria Politic

Russia warns West it risks war over Syria, Iran – January 20, 2012

MOSCOW: The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has warned outside encouragement of anti-government uprisings in the Middle East and north Africa could lead to ”a very big war that will cause suffering not only to countries in the region but also to states far beyond its boundaries”.

Mr Lavrov’s annual news conference on Wednesday was largely a critique of Western policies in Iran and Syria, which he said could lead to a spiral of violence.

He said Russia would use its position on the United Nations Security Council to veto any UN authorisation of military strikes against forces loyal to the government of Syria’s President, Bashar al-Assad.

Rezan Bahri Shaykhmus, Chairman of the Kurdish Future Movement’s Office of General Communications:
»While a people’s revolution is taking place throughout Syria, the Kurdish Patriotic Conference is arguing and struggling over money«

KURDWATCH, January 19, 2012—Rezan Bahri Shaykhmus (b. 1962, married, four children) is the chairman of the Kurdish Future Movement’s Office of General Communications. The engineer lives in Syria. In a conversation with KurdWatch, Shaikhmus speaks about the Future Movement’s political work following the death of its speaker Mish?al at-Tammu. [Read the interview]

Qatar: Kingmakers in Syria? by Jason Pack and Shashank Joshi

The cease fire in Zabadani has collapsed due to government strikes on the city, reports Brian Whitaker of the Guardian. Earlier the BBC announced that the Syrian army ‘agrees to ceasefire in Zabadani’, which had been reported by Radwan Ziadeh in the US. There was some excitement about the cease-fire development when it was first announced because it suggests that the Syrian military is overwhelmed by the spread of conflict to towns on the outskirts of Damascus. It also suggests that regions of Syria were falling out of government control and staying out of government control to create a “Libya like” situation where rebels could operate and organize without remaining on the run.

Opposition members argue that the Free Syrian Army based in Turkey are spearheading and commanding the fight in Zabadani. Nir Rosen, who has recently come out of Syria after a two month stay, argues on al-Jazeera (linked below) that the opposition claim of the existence of a centrally commanded Free Syrian Army is a myth. He claims that the militias that are springing up in different towns are locally commanded and organized and do not take orders from Col. Asaad or his FSA in Turkey. If this is true, it suggests that multiple militias are emerging, which may eventually struggle for command of Syria and take the place of the Syrian Army, unless they can negotiate some agreement on a central command. In the meantime, it is convenient for the opposition to call opposition forces the Free Syrian Army.

Film of the death of of the French journalist near the end of the clip. Friends explain that this film was taken in Homs in an Alawite neighborhood, which was hit by a mortar, killing a number of people on the street and the French journalist. Opposition sources argue the mortar was launched by government operatives in order to make the opposition look bad for killing civilians and to stir up civil war. Government sources blame it on opposition forces who are firing on Alawi districts. They argue that mortars cost only $400 and can be smuggled from Lebanon and Iraq without much trouble. This film clip is proof of how difficult it is to understand what is going on based on YouTube movie clips.

Sky News broadcast this Homs story from a team that visited the Alawi and Christian neighborhoods of Homs. As the reporter explains, the pro-Assad sentiment and reports of torture by opposition members expressed in this story are as one sided, but perhaps as representative, as other reports from opposition neighborhoods, such as the BBC report “Syria Undercover” broadcast a month ago. It is worth noting that Alawis and Christians only make up about 20% of Syria.

No plan to send Arab troops to Syria: League source
CAIRO | Sun Jan 15, 2012

(Reuters) – The Arab League has not received any official request or suggestion that it send Arab troops to Syria, an Arab representative to the Cairo-based League told Reuters on Sunday.

Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, said on Saturday that Arab troops may have to step in to halt the bloodshed in Syria since the start of protests against President Bashar al-Assad in March.

“There is no official suggestion to send Arab troops to Syria at the current time … There has been no Arab or a non-Arab agreement on a military intervention in Syria for the time being,” the representative to the League said.

Why deny Syria is in a civil war?
Posted on January 16, 2012 by Jeremy Pressman

Erica Chenoweth has a concise post arguing that Syria now meets the academic definition of a civil war. Her thoughts beg an interesting follow-up question: if Syria is in a civil war, why isn’t it being called a civil war?

In the United States, one possibility is that the Obama administration prefers a narrative of democratic protest against a brutal regime. A civil war, which means both pro- and anti-regime violence, muddies that narrative. For instance, in late December, a Syrian opposition figure said he told (h/t syriacomment.com) US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about a nascent guerilla movement:

To my surprise, she asked that the defectors lay down their arms. That’s an odd request. Why didn’t they ask the rebels in Libya to lay down their arms? How can they do it if at any moment they can be fired at and murdered? It’s impractical.

If Secretary Clinton is still trying to discourage Syrian opposition violence, then admitting a civil war is underway would not be helpful. (Are Clinton or other US officials afraid that a civil war would be a pathway to sectarian fighting and spreading regional violence?)…..

Syrian MP, Tribal Chief Go into Exile
by Naharnet Newsdesk

A leading MP and an opposition figure who heads Syria’s largest tribe announced they have defected and gone into exile, in interviews broadcast on Monday on Al-Arabiya television.

“I have come to Turkey to activate the opposition. The Syrian revolution is our path. The country’s youth are making the greatest sacrifices for a better future,” Al-Baqqara tribal chief Nawaf al-Bashir told the satellite channel.

Bashir said he had been coerced to appear on state television in Syria to praise the reforms which President Bashar al-Assad says he has launched.

He was a key supporter of the so-called Damascus Declaration which opposition leaders issued in 2005 to press for reform. He says he has been interrogated by the security services more than 75 times.

MP Imad Ghalioun, a member of parliament’s budget committee, said he had chosen Egypt as a base to try to help the opposition achieve “freedom and dignity” for the Syrian people in a future democratic state.

Fear of Civil War Mounts in Syria as Crisis Deepens
By ANTHONY SHADID

Ian Black reports: Sipping tea in a smoky Damascus cafe, Adnan and his wife, Rima, look ordinary enough: an unobtrusive, thirtysomething couple winding down at the end of the working day in one of the tensest cities in the world. But like much else in the Syrian capital, they are not what they first seem: […]

Syria Report

Resolute Syrian President to Use ‘Iron Fist’, Debate Over International Intervention Propels Disunity Among Opposition
On Tuesday, January 10 during an address at Damascus University, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad highlighted ongoing government reforms and vowed to continue the government’s fight against terrorism and international conspirators. For its part, the Arab League observer mission in Syria has already been deemed a failure; violence has heavily intensified with over 400 killed since the first of its members arrived in country two weeks ago. At the same time, fuel and heating oil shortages, as well as a growing dearth of affordable food stuffs, are posing serious challenges to nearly all.

Videos: Patrick Seale and Nir Rosen on Syria Thanks to War in Context

Syrian opposition row over foreign military action nixes unity effort
By Ashish Kumar Sen
The Washington Times, Friday, January 6, 2012

Pro-Syrian regime protesters shout slogans and hold portraits of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration Jan. 4, 2012, in Damascus, Syria, to show solidarity for Assad. (Associated Press)Pro-Syrian regime protesters shout slogans and hold portraits of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration Jan. 4, 2012, in Damascus, Syria, to show solidarity for Assad. (Associated Press)

Efforts by the U.S. and the Arab League to work with a unified Syrian opposition have been stymied, mostly due to two opposition groups’ disagreement on foreign military action to oust President Bashar Assad.

A weeks-long effort to build a coalition between Syria’s two main opposition groups — the Syrian National Council and the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria (NCB) — collapsed this week after it was reported that the groups had agreed to reject foreign intervention.

News of the deal caused an uproar in the Syrian National Council’s ranks, and the leadership quickly accused the NCB of passing off as a final agreement what they had considered talking points for an Arab League-sponsored opposition conference later this month.

A fractured opposition complicates international engagement and casts doubt about a post-Assad government.

The Syrian National Council supports international intervention, and in a meeting on Tuesday, its executive committee officially rejected the purported agreement with the NCB.

“We didn’t want to be on record saying we are against foreign intervention. We are for foreign intervention, but we don’t want to exchange a bad regime for an occupier,” said George Jabboure Netto, an Syrian National Council member.

It would be up to the U.N. Security Council to decide what intervention, including airstrikes, is required, he said. “We are not going to dictate how they should go about this.”

Press Release
SNC and FSA Agree on Activating Coordination Mechanism

A delegation from the Syrian National Council (SNC) met with the leadership of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) on Thursday, January 12, 2012. The goal of the meeting was to increase the level of coordination and activate mechanisms of communications between them. The delegation, headed by Dr. Burhan Ghalioun, extensively discussed the situation on the ground and the organizational capacity of the FSA with Colonel Riad Al-Asa’ad and his deputy Malek Kurdi. Included in the discussion was an assessment of needs including reorganization and restructuring of FSA units. The parties agreed to formulate a detailed plan, to include the reorganization of FSA units and brigades, and the creation of a format to accommodate within FSA ranks additional officers and soldiers, especially senior military officials, who side with the revolution.

“Is Al-Qaeda Infiltrating Syria Through Lebanon’s Beka’a Valley?”
by Nick Heras for Jamestown

Syria politics: Pride before a fall?
January 10th 2012, FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

The Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, has delivered his fifth speech since the popular uprising against his regime erupted in March 2011. Many of the themes were familiar—blaming the crisis on foreign conspiracies and Islamist terrorists, and offering promises of reform—and Mr Assad reiterated his resolve to crush the uprising by force. There was also a note of satisfaction that his regime has managed to check the efforts of some Arab League member states to press actively for UN Security Council intervention. However, this respite may not last.

The last time Mr Assad made a public appearance was on August 1st when he made a speech to mark army day. Since then Syria’s internal conflict has become steadily more violent and the regime has faced increasingly determined pressure from the EU, Turkey and, most recently, the Arab League. The death toll among Syrian civilians is now thought to exceed 6,000; the regime claims that more than 2,000 members of its security forces have been killed. There have also been two bomb attacks in Damascus that the government has tried to blame on al-Qaida, but which the opposition claims to have been staged by the regime in order to validate its narrative about external terrorist threats. The EU and Turkey have imposed economic sanctions, which have had a severe impact on the regime’s finances, and the Arab League, having suspended Syria’s membership, threatened to impose its own sanctions, until the government agreed terms for the dispatch of Arab monitors tasked with overseeing a reduction in regime violence against unarmed protesters…….

Discord

Another positive development from Mr Assad’s perspective has been the discord in the ranks of some of his opponents. The Syrian National Council (SNC) has tried to project itself as the most representative force among the opposition, having drawn together many of its strands, including the Muslim Brotherhood, exiled liberal intellectuals, Kurdish groups and activists from the underground local co-ordinating committees (LCCs) operating within Syria. However, another opposition group, the National Co-ordinating Body (NCB), some of whose activists remain in full view inside Syria, has become a thorn in the side of the SNC. Representatives of the two groups met in Cairo at the start of January, and news emerged suggesting that they had agreed on a common platform, including a rejection of international intervention and an agreement to negotiate with regime elements not directly implicated in violence. The SNC quickly denied that any such agreement had been reached and that the NCB had leaked a discussion document; the NCB denied this, and accused the SNC of backtracking. The NCB’s external leader, Haitham Mannaa, has derided his rivals as being a toxic mixture of Islamists and neo-conservatives, and has insisted that Syria’s future should remain an exclusively Arab concern. Bourhan Ghalioun, the chairman of the SNC, said that Mr Assad’s speech had made it abundantly clear that the regime had no intention of complying with the Arab League’s demands, and that the only way forward was to fully engage the international community in affording protection to the Syrian civilian population. According to the LCCs more than 30 people were killed by regime security forces on the day of Mr Assad’s speech, the majority of them in the north-eastern city of Deir al-Zor.

Fantasy reforms

Mr Assad devoted much of the latter part of his speech to describing the progress that he had made with political reforms. He ticked off the law passed to lift the state of emergency, a political parties law (which he said had now resulted in the first new parties being licensed), a new election law, a media law and the staging of local elections in early December. He said that he had intended to pass an anti-corruption law, but that it had been delayed to allow for more study and consultation. The next major step would be to hold a referendum in early March to approve a new constitution drawn up by a committee appointed last year. Two to three months after the constitution is approved, there would be a general election for a new parliament—the mandate of the previous parliament ran out in April; the assembly has since reconvened on a provisional basis. Mr Assad sought to present these reforms as advancing with significant popular participation, thereby branding the entire opposition movement as being beyond the political pale. His reform project would look more credible if he could co-opt some elements of the opposition to become involved, but there is so far little sign that the regime will manage to pull this off. Even Mr Mannaa of the NCB still professes that his group’s objective is to bring down the Assad regime.

Points of weakness

For all his bravado, Mr Assad’s regime continues to survive only because of its brutal use of force and thanks to some residual support that it enjoys from Russia, China, a handful of Arab states, Iran and Venezuela (which has recently provided some shipments of petroleum products). The documenting of incidents by opposition groups and the dissemination of videos to media organisations has acted as a constraint on the regime, meaning that it has not been possible to raze whole areas to the ground along the lines of the subjugation of Hama in 1982. However, the accumulation of evidence that the regime has being carrying out a systematic campaign of gross abuses of human rights means that there is no chance of the Assad regime returning to some semblance of business as usual. Sanctions can only become stiffer. Whether through incremental foreign intervention or an internal collapse, or a combination of the two, it is probable that the Assad regime will eventually be brought down.

(Translated by Max Weiss.) Samar Yazbek on the Syrian Revolt is a Syrian writer and journalist. In August 2011 she wrote in these pages about her experience of being detained after a demonstration. She is one of the Beirut 39 authors.

The Syrian crisis was always going to be different than what we all witnessed in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen thus far.  Every country has its own nuances that render it a unique case.  One of the glaring characteristics of the current Syrian conflict is to do with its sectarian fault lines.

Syrians like me have always been apprehensive about discussing our sectarian and religious differences.  Indeed, the subject matter has been taboo in Syrian society.

Like it or not, it is clear that this crisis has been taking on an undeniable sectarian character. While this is not surprising, I feel compelled to share a personal experience with the many Syrian readers of this note:

Back in 2010, I had read about “The Genographic Project”. This was a collaborative effort by National Geographic, IBM and the Waitt Family Foundation. For a fee, a person’s DNA results will be identified. The task will then involve finding out which branch on the Human family tree this person belongs to.  Naturally, I was skeptical at first.  In the end, I decided to participate in the project with my brother. I would track my paternal ancestors while he would track our maternal side (each person can only choose one).  With a simple swab from our cheeks and a 9-digit number to identify us we were promised an answer within six weeks.

Our DNA results identified us as belonging to the “Haplogroup U”.  As geneticists know, scientists believe that the human story begins in Africa sometime between 150,000 and 170,000 years ago, with a woman whom anthropologists have nicknamed “Mitochondrial Eve”.  This discovery was made in 1987 when it was confirmed that all people alive on the planet today can trace their maternal lineage to her. This is not to say that Mitochondrial Eve was the first female human. Eve was a survivor. Other Homo sapiens who evolved in Africa around 200,000 years ago became extinct. A maternal line can become extinct for a number of reasons. A woman may not have children, or she may bear only sons. She may fall victim to a catastrophic event such as volcanic eruption, flood, or famine, all of which have plagued humans since the dawn of our species.  None of these extinctions happened to Eve’s line.

EVE’s first ancestral line was L1/L0 who are now found exclusively in Africa.

L2 and L3 are also found all over Africa but they were the first descendents who moved north of the continent around 80,000 ago.

Those who made it across the Sinai Peninsula (present-day Egypt) formed group “N”.

After several thousand years, humans sharing a female ancestor from this N clan started making it to Anatolia (present-day Turkey) and formed Haplogroup R.

We now arrive at my own clan:

Most members of my “U” group are found in the eastern Mediterranean who descend from a woman in the R branch who lived around 50,000 ago.

Based in North America and only identified with a 9-digit number, this Genographic Project was able to identify my descendants as having lineages found in the eastern Mediterranean from some 50,000 years ago. This is 46,488 years before Moses. It is also 47,988 years before Jesus and 49,430 before the prophet Mohammad.

Presumably most of the inhabitants of what is Syria today may share the same DNA lineages as me.  My wish is for the whole country to participate in this Genome project. It would be interesting if the results confirm that members of the SNC, NCC, Tansiqiyat, Mokhabarat, Fourth division, Baba Amr, Daraa, Free Syrian Army and the whole of Qurdaha all share the same ancestral mother that had reached this land some 50,000 years ago well before all of our Prophets.

Many members of my immediate family have started talking about migrating out of this land. Having reviewed my 2-year old genome test this morning, I wonder if the current Syrian crisis qualifies as my family’s own version of a catastrophic event that forced us out of the region after 50,000 of finding refuge there.