What happened in Treimseh and just how many have been killed there remains the subject of heated debate. Opposition forces are reporting up to 250 massacred. Others claim that this is propaganda designed to influence the Security Council vote on Syria coming up. Moon Over Alabama blog, headlines:  Syria: Insurgents Claim Another UN Meeting “Massacre”.He suggests that the numbers killed are being cooked by the opposition in the hope of generating world condemnation of Syria at the UN. At the center of political debate are the merits of the Kofi Annan plan. Seth Frantzman in the Jerusalem Post headlines his article: Is Annan an accomplice to murder in Syria?. More serious debate is provided by Patrick Seale, who argues for the Annan plan and Jeffrey White, who argues against. Both their articles are copied at the bottom of this post.

On Treimseh

Addendum: Guardian (GB): Syria used helicopters and tanks in Tremseh ‘massacre’, confirms UN
2012-07-13

Syria used helicopter gunships and other heavy weaponry in the shelling of Tremseh, says General Robert Mood, head of the UN monitoring mission in the country. The head of the UN monitoring mission in Syria has said that helicopters and tanks were …

AFP reports:

Separately, two Syrian activists said most of those killed in the Thursday incident were rebels, and that they died in fighting.”At this stage, though we do not yet have the final count, the number of civilians killed by shelling is not more than seven,” said Jaafar, an activist at the anti-regime Sham News Network.

“The rest were members of the [rebel] Free Syrian Army,” he told AFP.

“An army convoy was on its way to the region of Hama when it was attacked by the FSA,” he said. “The army staged a counter-attack with the support of [pro-regime] reinforcements from [nearby] Alawite villages. The FSA resisted for an hour before it was defeated.”

An activist at a media center in Hama also said “a large number of rebels were killed in fighting between the FSA and the regular army.”

AP’s Ben Hubbard provides a grimmer picture of the Massacre. He quotes top officials and activists:

…”It certainly does build strong international support to continue to ramp up the pressure on Assad,” said Deputy Press Secretary Josh Earnest from aboard Air Force One on the way to Obama campaign events in Virginia.

The head of the U.N. monitoring mission in Syria also singled out government forces for blame, saying they attacked from the air and land in “continuous violence.”

Yet much remains unclear about what happened in Tremseh, such as why Assad’s troops moved against the village and whether all of the dead were civilians. One group said dozens of the dead were rebel fighters….

The new violence is certain to raise questions about whether the international community’s diplomatic efforts to end the crisis remain relevant. Kofi Annan, the international envoy whose peace plan for Syria has been largely ignored by all sides, said he was “shocked and appalled” by the reports of the attack.

He singled out the government for using heavy weaponry in populated areas, something it was supposed to stop doing three months ago.

Maj. Gen. Robert Mood, head of U.N. monitoring mission, told reporters in Damascus that a group of observers about five kilometers (three miles) away during the violence confirmed the use of heavy weapons and attack helicopters….

Another activist, Abu Ghazi al-Hamwi, said local rebels, often called the Free Syrian Army, tried to fight off the army but couldn’t.

“They kept shelling the city and the weapons that the Free Army had were not enough to keep them out,” he said.

He, too, backed away from claims of more than 200 dead, saying late Friday he had been able to confirm 74.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Friday that more than 150 people were killed in Tremseh and that more than 100 of their names had been compiled. It said dozens of the dead were rebel fighters and that the bodies of about 30 were totally burned. Others were stabbed or gunned down as they fled.

Both Darwish and al-Hamwi suspected that sectarianism motivated the attack. Tremseh is a Sunni Muslim village in an area also home to communities of other sects, including Christians and Alawites, the sect of Assad and many in the army and security forces.

Syria’s Sunni majority is the driving force in the anti-Assad uprising, while most Alawites have stood by the regime.

Both activists said that pro-regime thugs from the nearby Alawite village of Safsafiya entered the village with the army.

Thursday’s killing recalled a massacre in late May in the area of Houla, about 35 kilometers (22 miles) south of Tremseh, where more than 100 people were killed. Activists then also blamed the army and Alawite thugs, while the regime blamed “terrorists” seeking to frame the government.

Moon Over alabama concludes:

The heavily armed insurgents lost a battle. How this is supposed to be a “massacre” is beyond me.

U.N. Blames Syria’s Heavy Weapons in Bloody Clash
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR and RICK GLADSTONE, July 13, 2012, NYTimes

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The general leading the suspended United Nations monitoring mission in Syria said on Friday that there had been persistent fighting around the town of Tremseh, where both sides accused the other of massacring villagers a day earlier in what, if confirmed, would be the bloodiest sectarian incident of the uprising against the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

At the same time, Kofi Annan, who engineered an unheeded, six-point peace plan for Syria as the special envoy of the United Nations and the Arab League, issued a statement singling out the government in particular for the relentless violence in which scores of people were reported to have died.

Estimates of the tally of the dead in Tremseh, a village in western Syria’s Hama Province, ranged from a government assertion that 50 people were killed, to claims by a resident that 230 bodies had been readied for burial on Friday. Video posted online showed the bloodied corpses of some 15 mostly young men lying dead on the ground. …

Defections

Nawaf Fares, formerly Syria’s ambassador to Iraq, was a friend of President Assad and served as governor of Latakia before joining the diplomatic corps. As governor of Latakia, he was well respected for being honest, forceful and having the ear of the President himself. He could get things done and was a force for good, according to several Latakians that I have talked to.

Le Figaro is quoting french foreign minister that Manaf Tlass has entered into negotiations with the opposition.

Former Syria Diplomat: Only Force Can Topple Assad
2012-07-12, By BEN HUBBARD

Beirut (AP) — Syria’s highest ranking diplomat to defect to the opposition has dismissed the main international plan seeking to stop the violence, saying nothing short of President Bashar Assad’s departure is acceptable.

Nawaf Fares, formerly Syria’s ambassador to Iraq, said in an interview Thursday on the Al-Jazeera satellite channel that only force can remove Assad.

Fares announced that he was joining the anti-Assad revolution in a video on Wednesday. He was the second high-level regime official to quit in one week. The other, Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, has not spoken publically and does not appear to have joined the rebels.

Despite rising international condemnation, Assad’s regime has largely held together. The defections of Fares and Tlass have raised hopes among opposition leaders that others will quit the regime too.

Naasan Agha, former Syrian minister of culture, quoted on the Facebook-page of the Syrian journalist Mousa al Omar on his exchange with Naassan Agha, who is currently in Morocco.

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Psychologically battered, Syrian soldiers abandon Assad

Free Syrian Army fighters, who defected from the regular army, are seen at Mahameel near Idlib, June 18, 2012. Picture taken June 18, 2012. REUTERS/
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis, ANTAKYA, Turkey | Thu Jul 12, 2012

(Reuters) – As one of the Sunni Muslim soldiers who form the bulk of the Syrian army, Lieutenant Adnan Suleibi kept being pushed to the front of units fighting in the rebellious city of Homs.

Alawite personnel – members of the same minority sect as President Bashar al-Assad – remained in the rear. Alawites control the military through their domination of the officer corps and, crucially, direct the Soviet-style intelligence and secret police apparatus entrusted with preventing dissent.

“The Sunnis are cannon fodder and morale has been sapped. There are 75 men left in my brigade out of 250. The rest were killed, injured or deserted,” said Suleibi, a slim 23-year-old in jeans and striped t-shirt…

With influx of refugees, Syrian rebellion reaches deeper into heart of Damascus
By Special Correspondent, July 12 – Wash Post

DAMASCUS — The revolution that has engulfed much of Syria in bloodshed is now encroaching on the capital in ways that challenge long-held assumptions about President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power even in the city presumed to be his stronghold.

Compared with places such as Homs, Hama and Deir al-Zour, where bombardments and battles are commonplace, Damascus is still relatively calm. No longer, however, can the government boast that the capital is an oasis of tranquility or that a silent majority of its residents are loyal to the regime.

The city now feels pregnant with rage, and ready to explode…..

Holier Than Thou: Rival Clerics in the Syrian Jihad
Aron Lund, Jamestown Terrorism Monitor,

Jihadi theologians and their conflicting views on the Free Syrian Army, Jabhat el-Nosra, etc. … The Syrian conflict is emerging as an extremely attractive recruiting ground for jihadi groups – in February, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the emir of al-Qaida, called upon “every Muslim and every honorable and free person in Turkey, Iraq,…

….With Sunni sectarian perspectives becoming more central to the armed uprising as time passes, most FSA factions are now steeped in religious rhetoric and there are a number of explicitly Islamist groups calling themselves part of the FSA, some of whom use radical jihadi slogans. One such group is the al-Bara bin Malek Brigade, which uses the Salafi-Jihadi flag made famous by al-Qaeda in Iraq and vows to carry out “martyrdom operations.” [3]

Outside the FSA umbrella, there are other groups which are more radical and more hostile to Western influence over the uprising. These include the Ahrar al-Sham Brigades, a network of Islamist militias spread over several provinces, as well as a Salafist group in Homs called the Ansar Brigade. Others, such as Fath al-Islam, a Syrian-Lebanese-Palestinian group, predate the uprising. There is not, however, a formal al-Qaeda franchise in Syria, after the failed attempt to establish al-Qa’ida fi Bilad al-Sham (”al-Qaeda in the Levant”) in the mid-2000s, though this situation may be about to change (al-Hayat, September 28, 2010).

The Rise of Jabhat al-Nusra

The most prominent Syrian jihadi group, by far, is the Jabhat al-Nusra li-Ahl al-Sham min Mujahedi al-Sham fi Sahat al-Jihad (”The Support Front for the People of the Levant by the Levantine Mujahedin on the Battlefields of Jihad”). Jabhat al-Nusra (as it is known) emerged in early 2012 and has rapidly captured the imagination of jihadi activists and the attention of international news media through spectacular suicide bombings (Shamikh1.info, January 24, 2012).

While non-jihadi Syrian dissidents often accuse Jabhat al-Nusra of being a regime creation, most signs indicate that it may be a spinoff from the al-Qaeda-affiliated ”Islamic State in Iraq”  (al-Sharq al-Awsat, March 22). U.S. government sources have repeatedly linked Jabhat al-Nusra to al-Qaeda generally and the Iraqi branch specifically, and the group has a very active branch in the Deir al-Zor region along Syria’s eastern desert border, where tribal smuggling networks have remained active since the Iraq war (McClatchy, February 10; Guardian, March 22; see also Terrorism Monitor, June 1). Jabhat al-Nusra is now seen by the vast majority of international Salafi-Jihadis as ”their” group in Syria, despite the presence of other contenders. It has been actively promoted by the major jihadi web forums, perhaps indicating that trusted sources have vouched for its credibility…..

Abu al-Mundhir al-Shanqiti vs. Abu Basir al-Tartusi….

The Middle East Needs Dialogue not War
by Patrick Seale

Even if President Bashar al-Assad were to quit the scene, the opposition would still have to reach a negotiated compromise with Syria’s powerful officer corps and security services — the backbone of the regime — as well as with representatives of the various minorities, which are an ancient and essential part of Syrian’s social fabric, notes Patrick Seale.

“Dialogue is the strategy of the brave.” This is the striking phrase I heard from the mouth of Norway’s Foreign Minister, Jonas Gahr Store, one of the wisest of European statesmen, when I attended the Oslo Forum last month, an annual gathering of would-be mediators of the world’s conflicts. Rarely has dialogue been more necessary than in today’s deeply disturbed Middle East.

In Syria, the present fierce struggle is unlikely to yield a decisive outcome. Even if funds and weapons continue to pour in to the rebels, the latter will not be able to defeat the Syrian army on their own. The opposition prays for an external military intervention, but this is not likely to happen. The mood in the United States and Europe is to withdraw from Middle East conflicts not to get sucked into yet another one. In any event, so long as the Syrian opposition remains deeply divided it will have no hope of achieving its goals.

What then are we left with? More of the present bloody stalemate in which many more people will die or be displaced from their homes. Syria will be destroyed to the delight of its enemies — Israel first among them.

Even if President Bashar al-Asad were to quit the scene, the opposition would still have to reach a negotiated compromise with Syria’s powerful officer corps and security services — the backbone of the regime — as well as with representatives of the various minorities, which are an ancient and essential part of Syrian’s social fabric.

Only a dialogue, preceded by a ceasefire honoured by both sides, could save Syria from the catastrophe of a sectarian civil war, in which there would be no winners, only losers. This is what Kofi Annan, the UN-mandated mediator, is trying to achieve. He should be supported not undermined. The deal now being negotiated in Egypt between the Muslim Brothers and the armed forces could provide a model for Syria.

Dangerous tensions in the Gulf could also be fruitfully contained through dialogue. It is reported that Egypt’s President Muhammad Morsi is soon to pay an official visit to the Saudi monarch, King Abdallah, and has also accepted an invitation to visit Iran’s President Ahmadinejad. Imagine what a formidable diplomatic coup it would be for Egypt if President Morsi were to initiate a tripartite strategic dialogue between Cairo, Riyadh and Tehran. Acting together, these three major capitals could resolve many of the region’s conflicts, and put an end to destabilising interventions by outside powers.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia, could, through dialogue and cooperation, draw Iran into the security architecture of the region. That would be a far better recipe for stability and peace than a policy of threats, sanctions and intimidation. [underlining mine, JAW]

In spite of the propaganda emanating from Israel and Washington, there is no evidence that Iran wishes to acquire atomic weapons. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ai Khamenei declared last February that the possession of such weapons would be “pointless, dangerous and a great sin from an intellectual and religious point of view.” He should be taken at his word. Western intelligence agencies have themselves confirmed that, while Iran wishes to master the uranium fuel cycle, it has not embarked on a military nuclear programme.

Nor is there any real evidence that the Gulf region faces a threat from Iran’s alleged “hegemonic ambitions.” I believe too much is made of Iran’s alleged role in stirring up Shia communities in the Gulf and in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. The Islamic Republic is at present in no shape to threaten or dominate anyone. It is simply seeking to survive in the face of a campaign of cyber attacks, assassination and sabotage by the United States and Israel, which is just short of outright war. Crippling sanctions have reduced its oil exports by a million barrels a day; its currency has collapsed; and its hard-pressed population is struggling to cope with 30 percent inflation. Under such intense pressure, Iran may well lash out in frustration, triggering a regional hot war, which would definitely not be to the advantage of the vulnerable Gulf Arabs.

Instead of helping to resolve conflicts by promoting dialogue between the states of the region, the United States is reinforcing its armed forces in the Gulf region. It is reported to be bringing additional F-22 and F/A-18 warplanes to local bases, and is doubling its minesweepers from four to eight. A senior U.S. Defence Department official has explained that this deployment of American power is intended to provide “tangible proof to all of our allies and partners and friends that even as the U.S. pivots towards Asia, we remain vigilant across the Middle East.”

Is this really what the region wants to hear? The militarisation of American foreign policy started during the Cold War in response to what was perceived as a threat from the Soviet Union. Militarisation was then greatly expanded under George W. Bush’s administration. The result was two catastrophic wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which have devastated these countries, bankrupted America and gravely damaged its reputation. The American historian William Polk has calculated that the United States has spent at least $2.59 trillion on ‘defence’ in the last five years, a large part of it on weapons, and is planning to spend 5% more in the next five years.

Israel and its neo-con allies in the United States are pushing the Obama administration to bring Iran to its knees, in much the same way as they pushed the Bush Administration to destroy Iraq. The Arabs should not lend their backing to this campaign. The conflicts of the region — and especially the dangerous tensions regarding Iran’s nuclear facilities — would best be settled by dialogue and compromise rather than by military force.

No doubt some Gulf countries fear they would be threatened by Iran if the American protective umbrella were removed. But even if the United States were to withdraw its bases from the region, as some U.S. strategic thinkers advocate, it would retain an ‘over-the-horizon’ naval presence which would surely provide adequate protection.

I have long argued in this column that it is not an Arab interest to make an enemy of Iran. The Gulf States and Iran have many commercial and strategic interests in common, not least the security of their vital region. The clear lesson of the present crises is that local powers should be able to protect themselves or reach a satisfactory accommodation with their non-Arab neighbours by means of dialogue and cooperation.

It is Israel that needs to be persuaded that its current policy of seizing Palestinian territory while seeking to weaken and destabilise its neighbours, is not the best way to ensure its own security. On the contrary, Israel’s long-term survival can only be assured if it normalises its relations with the Arabs, as well as with Iran, by allowing the emergence of a Palestinian state. Only a sincere and sustained dialogue can bring this about. That should be the urgent focus of the international community.

ANNAN’S LATEST SYRIA PLAN IS A BAD DEAL
By Jeffrey White, July 11, 2012, WINEP

UN envoy Kofi Annan’s latest plan to end the violence in Syria — perhaps better labeled the Annan-Assad plan — is a bad one. It extends yet another lifeline to the regime, undercuts the armed opposition’s growing effectiveness, and substitutes diplomatic bustle for progress toward ousting Bashar al-Assad. Like Annan’s previous ineffective ceasefire, the new plan is almost certainly doomed to failure — and the sooner the better.

Developed in consultation with Assad himself, Annan’s latest proposal hinges on building security and stability from the ground up. That is, in areas of intense conflict, it calls for local arrangements to contain the fighting. This plays straight into the regime’s hands, and it is no wonder Assad participated in its formulation. If implemented, local ceasefire arrangements would simply reduce pressure on Assad’s increasingly stretched forces, giving them time to rest and refit, while preserving the regime’s increasingly precarious military position in key provinces in the north (Idlib and Aleppo) and east (Deir al-Zour)…..

Annan’s plan could gain traction internationally, which would suggest a fundamental misunderstanding of both the conflict and the regime. The war in Syria has become a war to decide the fate of the regime, not a prelude to power-sharing agreements or Assad-led political reform….

Lately, however, the regime has been losing control of the military situation, and its position in the distant provinces is crumbling. Therefore, Assad probably regards the new proposal as a way to shore up his defenses, at least temporarily. This makes Annan’s plan a bad deal for the Syrian opposition and all those seeking the regime’s end, but a good deal for Assad.

Syrian Armenians Starting To Take Refuge In Armenia
Jamestown Inst – July 11, 2012 — Volume 9, Issue 131

With fighting continuing to escalate in Syria and no end to the bloodshed on the horizon, a growing number of the country’s ethnic Armenians are looking to take refuge in Armenia. Hundreds of them are believed to have already moved to their ancestral homeland, while thousands of others have applied for Armenian citizenship in apparent preparation for such relocation. The authorities in Yerevan are facing growing calls from domestic opposition and public figures to encourage and assist in that influx.

Currently numbering between 60,000 and 80,000 members, Syria’s Armenian community mainly consists of descendants of survivors of the 1915 mass killings and deportations of Armenians in the former Ottoman Empire. Like other diaspora communities in the Middle East, they are mostly affluent and well-educated, have had little involvement in the country’s political life and been loyal to the government. The ruling al-Assad family has largely respected their cultural and religious rights ever since it seized power in the country in 1971.

Most Syrian Armenians apparently remain supportive of President Bashar Al-Assad despite his regime’s more than year-long bloody crackdown on anti-government protests that seem to be degenerating into civil war. Many of them are deeply apprehensive about the mainly Sunni Muslim rebels, among them radical Islamists, fighting the regime in Damascus. Some are convinced that Assad’s fall would spell the end of the community (www.armenianow.com, February 13).

Despite being largely concentrated in Syria’s largest and relatively safe city of Aleppo, far away from the main trouble spots in the bloody unrest, the community has already suffered casualties. At least four Armenian soldiers serving in the Syrian army have been reportedly killed in the fighting (www.tert.am, www.hetq.am, June 25). There have also been reports of Armenians kidnapped and held for ransom by unknown militants. An Armenian Catholic priest in Aleppo claimed last month that most of some 2,000 Armenian residents of Homs have fled the troubled city after anti-government “terrorists” looted their homes and burned down the local Armenian church (www.armenialiberty.org, June 13).

With no end to the vicious violence in sight, ethnic Armenians started leaving Syria early this year. Armenia has been their prime destination. There is no official data on how many of them have taken refuge in the South Caucasian state so far. But media reports and anecdotal evidence suggest that there are currently several hundred such refugees. The influx should intensify in the coming months as evidenced by skyrocketing applications for Armenian citizenship filed by Syrian nationals.

According to the Armenian police, there were almost 3,000 such applications last year and about 2,700 of them in the first five months of this year. Only 422 Syrian Armenians applied for an Armenian passport in 2010 (Armenpress, June 29; Haykakan Zhamanak, June 30). Virtually all of those requests are certain to be granted. Armenia allowed dual citizenship in 2006 with the specific aim of bolstering ties with its large worldwide diaspora and encouraging ethnic Armenian immigration. Tens of thousands of diaspora Armenians, including those who were born in Armenia but emigrated following the Soviet collapse, have since become Armenian citizens.

U.S. Said to Ready Additional Iran Sanctions
2012-07-12   By Andrew Cinko

July 12 (Bloomberg) — Sanctions said to target front companies in oil trade.

Syria Faces UN Sanctions Push as Ally Russia Resists
By Flavia Krause-Jackson on July 11, 2012

Syria would face United Nations sanctions under a Security Council resolution drafted by Western powers seeking to overcome Russian resistance to measures that would hasten the fall of President Bashar al-Assad.

The move came after Kofi Annan, the UN’s special envoy to Syria, yesterday asked the UN’s decision-making body via video link from Geneva to “send a message to all that there will be consequences for noncompliance” with his peace efforts.

“Russians remain very skeptical to anything that even slightly creates the chance of military action,” Richard Gowan, associate director for crisis diplomacy and peace operations at the New York University Center on International Cooperation, said in an interview. “Still, I would not rule out a change of course as bad news keeps piling up on the ground.”

The deterioration of the 17-month conflict, daily killings and rising number of reported defections have emboldened the U.S, France and the U.K. to challenge Russia to break with a Soviet-era ally it’s protected from punishment. Annan’s transition plan envisions Assad’s exit within a year’s time.

The latest attempt to hold Assad accountable “includes a clear threat of sanctions if the regime fails in its first step of stopping the use of heavy weapons with a fixed timeline,” Mark Lyall Grant, the U.K.’s UN envoy in New York, said yesterday. “We’ve heard a lot of commitments in the past. They have not been followed through.” …

The Real Housewives of the Syrian Revolution
Behind the lines of the war against Bashar al-Assad.
BY SUHA MAAYEH | JULY 11, 2012 – Foreign Policy

RAMTHA, Jordan — For Aysha, a 28-year-old Syrian refugee in Jordan, her small Nokia cell phone is a lifeline to a loved one on the front lines of the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

It’s the only way she can contact her husband, who goes by the nom de guerre Abu Layla. They talk almost every day. He has joined the ranks of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), leaving her with their three children and making her one of many “rebel wives” keeping the faith on the other side of the border. It has been two weeks since she last saw him.

Aysha often rode on the back of her husband’s motorcycle before he went off to war, her black niqab flowing behind her as he drove. Now her world is a lot less glamorous. She spends most of her day at home — a box-like three-bedroom rented apartment, dotted with mattresses and featuring only one small window — taking care of her three daughters, mopping floors, and hand-washing the laundry. The apartment was paid for with money scrounged together from local charities, sympathizers, and their Jordanian neighbors, and their daily survival is dependent on this private aid.

The stresses of refugee life, which include hosting her in-laws, have taken their toll on Aysha. She has lost weight since her husband rejoined the front lines — partly due to worry, partly because she doesn’t have enough money to buy food. Sitting on a mattress in her sparsely furnished apartment in this dusty Jordanian border town, she admits she doesn’t know when she’ll see her husband again.

“My fate is with the Free Syrian Army,” she says with resignation.

Rape, assault are weapons of war in Syria: rights group
By Lauren French

WASHINGTON | Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:39pm EDT

(Reuters) – Government forces in Syria are targeting women for rape and assault as the conflict between President Bashar al-Assad and anti-government forces continues to escalate, according to a report released by a human rights group on Wednesday.

Women Under Siege said it had documented 81 instances of sexual assault in Syria since anti-government demonstrations began in March 2011, with most occurring in the rebel stronghold of Homs, a frequent target of attack by government forces.

New Texts Out Now: Akram Khater, Embracing the Divine: Gender, Passion, and Politics in the Christian Middle East
Akram Fouad Khater
Akram Fouad Khater, Embracing the Divine: Gender, Passion, and Politics in the Christian Middle East. Syracuse: Syracuse University Press, 2011.

Jadaliyya (J): What made you write this book?
Akram Khater (AK): This book was partly a happenstance, and came partly out of a keen awareness of a gaping hole in Middle Eastern scholarship. The happenstance is common enough in scholarly research. Tired of the texts I was reading at the Bibliotheque Nationale for my PhD dissertation, I turned to the Arabic card catalog to browse for interesting manuscripts. I stumbled upon one titled Aghrab imra’a fil ‘alam [The Strangest Woman in the World]. With such an unabashedly over the top title, I simply had to order the manuscript, and with that I began my journey into the history of Hindiyya al-‘Ujaimi, a visionary Maronite nun of eighteenth-century Aleppo and Lebanon….

Der Spiegel: Author Jonathan Littell on Syria ‘I’m Fundamentally a Pessimist’, 2012-07-13

Author Jonathan Littell on Syria ‘I’m Fundamentally a Pessimist’ AP Author Jonathan Littell says:

I’m positive that the Syrian revolution was not driven by religious or ethnic concerns in the beginning, but rather by economic and social concerns. This is a true proletarian revolution of the workers and the farmers, an uprising of those for whom life had passed by. But if the situation deteriorates further, it’s possible that precisely what the West fears will come to pass. Jihadists will infiltrate Syria from all directions, to misuse the revolution for their own unacceptable purposes. One more reason not to just look on and wait until we’re tearing our hair and wailing: My God, my God, the Islamists!

SPIEGEL: Haven’t we reached that point already?

Littell: I didn’t meet any religious fanatics in Homs. But the regime is playing the religious and ethnic card to get the non-Sunni minorities on its side, the Alawis, the Ismailis, the Druzes, the Christians. That shows how embattled the regime feels at this point. Yet Assad could have easily defused the revolution in the beginning by initiating social reforms. Initially, the protesters had no intention of toppling him. They wanted equality, not democracy, which is a vague concept to them. Now, though, it’s become a battle of life and death.

SPIEGEL: What will the outcome be?

Littell: The Syrian army and security forces aren’t strong enough to defeat the revolution completely, as can be seen from the growing numbers of deserters. But neither are the rebels strong enough to win without help from outside. The worst thing would be a long war of attrition that would destroy the country entirely. I can image that, as a last resort, Assad and his people would consider dividing the country and withdrawing to an Alawi stronghold. That, though, would amount to a “Lebanonization” of the country, and would mean massive ethnic cleansing….

Littell: It will end badly. I’m fundamentally a pessimist, and I always consider the worst scenario not only possible, but likely.

SPIEGEL: What is your impression of the FSA fighters, whose ranks are increasing from defecting regime soldiers?

Littell: Extraordinarily motivated, decisive, brave, prepared to die. For many of them, deserting the army, which can be a fatal move in and of itself, was an act of immense relief and liberation. Often, the defectors had participated in the repression by following orders to shoot at the demonstrators — whose beliefs they share — and then accumulating a terrible sense of guilt.

SPIEGEL: It seems the rebels are increasingly perpetrating atrocities as well.

Littell: I never experienced that myself, but there are certainly criminal groups operating at the fringes of the FSA, committing blackmail, rape and murder. Still, it is not nearly as systematic as it is on the government’s side.

SPIEGEL: You write that the rebels sometimes execute prisoners.

Littell: They showed me injured prisoners they were treating in an underground clinic. A rebel fighter who ends up in the hands of the government’s troops, on the other hand, will be tortured in every possible way, that’s for certain. I admit, I also saw a member of the regime’s dreaded Shabiha militia, who’d been lynched and whose naked, blood-smeared body, his head smashed in, was put on the back of a truck and paraded through the crowd, with shouts of “Allahu akbar!” It was a triumphal procession of bloody revenge. It depends who the FSA captures — a member of the militia, a sniper who has been picking off civilians, women and children as they walk down the streets, or someone who was simply conscripted into the army.

Sen. Graham: Statement by Senators Graham, McCain, Lieberman Statemen on Syria, 2012-07-13

U.S. officials have said that Syria has begun moving its chemical weapons stockpiles out of storage facilities.
By JULIAN E. BARNES, JAY SOLOMON and ADAM ENTOUS

WASHINGTON—Syria has begun moving parts of its vast arsenal of chemical weapons out of storage facilities, U.S. officials said, in a development that has alarmed many in Washington.

The country’s undeclared stockpiles of sarin nerve agent, mustard gas and cyanide have long worried U.S. officials and their allies in the region, who have watched anxiously amid the conflict in Syria for any change in the status or location of the weapons.

U.S. officials said that Syria has begun moving parts of its vast chemical weapons arsenal out of storage facilities. Julian Barnes has details on The News Hub. (Photo: Reuters)

American officials are divided on the meaning of the latest moves by members of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Some U.S. officials fear Damascus intends to use the weapons against the rebels or civilians, potentially as part of a targeted ethnic cleansing campaign. But other officials said Mr. Assad may be trying to safeguard the material from his opponents or to complicate Western powers’ efforts to track the weapons

Some said that Mr. Assad may not intend to use the weapons, but instead may be moving them as a feint, hoping the threat of a chemical attack could drive Sunnis thought to be sympathetic to the rebels from their homes.

Is Assad dangling WMD bait? – 13 Jul 2012 – War in Context

(Update below.) As much as Bashar al Assad pushes the narrative that he is quelling unrest spawned by foreign agitation, he is also sending a strong message to his challengers. That is, that he has the power to act with impunity confident — that whatever atrocities his forces commit, these actions will never do more […]

Syria: To oppose, or not to oppose?
Maher Arar -al-Jazeera

Human rights activist Maher Arar is the publisher of Prism Magazine, and first came to public attention after he was rendered by US authorities to Syria, his native country. The opposition movement inside and outside the country must walk a fine line between independence and intervention….

The Golden Runaway
Is the apparent defection of one of Bashar al-Assad’s top generals (and close friend) the beginning of the end for the Syrian regime?
BY DAVID W. LESCH | JULY 12, 2012

 In contrast to portrayals of him as part of the president’s “inner sanctum,” he has been excluded from top decision making circles since the early stages of the uprising, when he reportedly wanted the regime to pursue negotiations with the opposition rather than initiate a harsh crackdown…. The fact that the Syrian family most often associated with propping up the Assads has jumped ship is significant in symbolic terms.

Guardian on Tlass: Martin Chulov in Rehanliya, Julian Borger and Kim Willsher in Paris

According to one opposition figure, Tlass’s flight had been in the works for more than a year.

“Manaf had decided to defect very early on in the revolution and got in touch with the FSA to plan ahead. They advised him to stay in place as he would serve them better being on the inside rather than the outside.

“The same instructions had been given to a very large number of acting officers as they fed the Free Syrian Army with operational information and troop movements giving the FSA enough notice about impending attacks to avoid casualties and plan counter attacks,” the opposition figure said….

The Hezbollah men asked Manaf what he thought about Assad’s handling of the situation, according to one Syrian source.

“The response came fast and dry – ‘a donkey’,” said the source.

“Friends no more – Implications of the Tlass and Fares defections from the Syrian regime”, The Middle East expert Aron Lund analyzes the meaning of these defections and their possible future consequences.

Syrian opposition leaders are visiting Russia shortly after Russia announced that it will dock warships in Syria. Nicholas Burns, former undersecretary of State, explains (below) why he believes that Russia is reassessing its commitment to Assad because it no longer believes that Assad can subdue the rebellion. SNC leader, Abdelbaset Sieda, says that after talks with Russia’s foreign minister he sees “no change” in Moscow’s stance toward Syrian President Bashar al Assad.  Russia circulated among U.N. Security Council members early Wednesday a draft resolution to extend a U.N. mission in Syria for three months. Critics say this is so it can shift focus from monitoring a non-existent truce to securing a political solution to the conflict, as violent crackdown left more deaths across the country. Meanwhile, Western Powers to Circulate UN Chapter 7 Resolution on Syria.

From the AFP: An image grab taken from a video uploaded on YouTube on July 10, 2012 allegedly shows a tank from forces loyal to the Syrian government being hit by a projectile in the town of Izaz, outside of Aleppo and on the Turkish-Syrian border. We don’t know whether the tank was destroyed or if this anti-tank weapon is a RPG or something new being supplied by western companies through the Gulf countries.

Stratfor’s Bokhari and Bella remind us why a Sunni win in Syria is likely to impact the balance of power in Iraq more perhaps than in Lebanon.  After all, the Sunni insurgency in Iraq is active and believes it can gain politically through violence against the Shia-dominated government. If the Sunni insurgency in Syria takes power, it may be willing to support the Iraqi Sunnis, particularly if Saudi and the Gulf states fund Jihad there in a continuing effort to limit Iran’s influence in the region and encourage regime-change in Tehran.

Rami Makhlouf

Release Rami Makhlouf: Buying Syria One Bank at a Time – Wikileaks

Wikileaks has published Rami Makhlouf statements of syp 135 million stock purchases through his Cham Capital, which is owned by his Ramak Group. This is Jan 2011 before the revolt and a small sum. All the same, the wikileaks allows others to track his money moves.

SYRIAN AMBASSADOR TO IRAQ DEFECTED TO KURDISTAN’S IRBIL:ARABIYA

Russia Increases its troops level in Armenia to ‘divisional strenght’, in a clear message to Erdogan
by Moon of Alabama

“… Turkey depends on natural gas imports from Russia and Iran and a reminder on that may be a way to move Erdogan away from supporting the insurgents. Russia also has troops in Armenia, another neighbor to which Turkey is rather hostile, and is said to increase its troop size there to divisional strength. (The Armenia – Azerbaijan conflict is heating up and, with western support for Azerbaijan, may become one of the hot spots if the conflict over Syria or Iran escalates.) The Russian troop increase and the next two items seem intended to keep any western power away from stupid ideas….”

Considering a Sunni Regime in Syria | Stratfor
July 10, 2012 | Stratfor By Reva Bhalla and Kamran Bokhari

As one astute observer of the Syrian conflict explained, the al Assad regime is like a melting block of ice. The Alawite core of the block is frozen intact because the minorities fear the consequences of losing power to a Sunni majority. We have not yet seen the mass defections and breakdown in command and control within the military that would suggest that large chunks of this block are breaking off. But the Sunni patronage networks around that core that keep the state machinery running are slowly starting to melt. The more this block melts, the more fragile it becomes and the more likely we are to see cracks form closer and closer to the center. At that point, the al Assad regime will become highly prone to a palace coup scenario….

Syria: portrait of a town divided and gripped by civil war
Linking the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo, Atarib is a vital supply line for whosoever controls it in Syria. Ruth Sherlock meets some of the residents who have suffered.
By Ruth Sherlock, Atarib – Telegraph

Why Syria Could Turn Into 1990s Algeria
by Erica Chenoweth on July 3, 2012, in Violence,War

What’s Iran doing with Turkish gold?
July 9, 2012, By Humay Guliyeva and Pan Kwan Yuk

That is the question beyondbrics found itself asking after it had a look at Turkey’s latest trade figures.

According to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Turkey’s trade with Iran in May rose a whopping 513.2 per cent to hit $1.7bn. Of this, gold exports to its eastern neighbour accounted for the bulk of the increase. Nearly $1.4bn worth of gold was exported to Iran, accounting for 84 per cent of Turkey’s trade with the country.

So what’s going on?

In a nutshell – sanctions and oil.

In recent months, western powers, notably the US and the European Union, have tightened financial sanctions on the Islamic regime in an attempt to force Iran to scale back or halt its efforts to enrich uranium.

In March, Iran was cut off from from Swift, the global payments network, effectively blocking the country from performing any international financial transactions.

With Tehran struggling to repatriate the hard currency it earns from crude oil exports – its main foreign currency earner and the economic lifeblood of the country – Iran has began accepting alternative means of payments – including gold, renminbi and rupees, for oil in an attempt to skirt international sanctions and pay for its soaring food costs.

“Iran is very keen to increase the share of gold in its total reserves,” says Gokhan Aksu, vice chairman of Istanbul Gold Refinery, one of Turkey’s biggest gold firms. “You can always transfer gold into cash without losing value.”

Turkey’s gold exports to Iran are part of the picture. As TurkStat itself noted, the gold exports were for “non-monetary purpose exportation”. Translation: they were sent in place of dollars for oil.

Iran furnishes about 40 percent of Turkey’s oil, making it the largest single supplier, according to Turkey’s energy ministry. While Turkey has sharply reduced its oil imports from Iran as a result of pressure from the US and the EU, it is unlikely to cut this to zero. The country pays about $6 a barrel less for Iranian oil than Brent crude, according to a recent Goldman Sachs report.

According to Ugur Gurses, an economic and financial columnist for the Turkish daily Radikal, Turkey exported 58 tonnes of gold to Iran between March and May this year alone.

“I saw the surge back in March, when gold exports increased by 36 times compared to March of 2011,” Gurses told beyondbrics. “I waited to see if the trend would evolve. Effectively, Iran converted $3bn of its reserves into gold through financial operations with Turkey, bypassing sanctions.”

Iran’s woes have proved to be a boon to Turkey’s current accounts. Turkey’s trade deficit narrowed by $1.6bn in May, compared to the same period last year. For the year to end of May, the deficit narrowed by $8.3bn, compared to the same period last year.

CNN: Russian views on Syria more nuanced than they may appear
2012-07-11

The Russian government shares many of the U.S. concerns about the continuing violence in Syria, but Moscow is reluctant to embrace Washington’s proposals.

Russia sent warships to Syria

10.07.2012 Northern Fleet (NF) destroyer Admiral Chabanenko and three Russian amphibious assault ships left NF Main Base Severomorsk on July 10. The high official from Russian Ministry of Defence told Central Navy Portal.

Three amphibious assault ships transport Marine Corps submits on-board. Baltic Fleet guard frigat Yaroslav Mudry and auxiliary ships, based in Baltiysk, will join Admiral Chabanenko later. According to information available to Central Navy Portal, naval ships move into the Mediterranean Sea, into Syria water area.

À crew member from one of the ships confirmed the information. He also noticed, that the three-months mission in the Mediterranean Sea for Admiral Chabanenko and three Russain amphibious assault ships was planned in advance.

NYTimes Russia-Sends-Warships-on-Maneuvers-Near-Syria 

Russia said on Tuesday that it had dispatched a flotilla of 11 warships to the eastern Mediterranean, some of which would dock in Syria. It would be the largest display of Russian military power in the region since the Syrian conflict began almost 17 months ago. Nearly half of the ships were capable of carrying hundreds of marines. …

But the unusually large size of the force announced on Tuesday was considered a message, not just to the region but also to the United States and other nations supporting the rebels now trying to depose Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad.

Tartus consists of little more than a floating refueling station and some small barracks. But any strengthened Russian presence there could forestall Western military intervention in Syria. …

Russia’s Mixed Signals Regarding Syria
July 11, 2012 | Stratfor

…So as the al Assad regime’s prospects for survival have become increasingly hazy, Russia has had to adjust its calculus. On one hand, Moscow would prefer to prop up its ally al Assad, or at least the government he has come to represent. On the other hand, Russia has interests in the country that transcend al Assad and the ruling Alawite regime.

Therefore Russia has sent — and will continue to send — mixed signals regarding its intentions with Syria. From hosting Syrian opposition delegations in Moscow to following a weapons moratorium announcement with a large-scale naval deployment to the Mediterranean, Russia is keeping its true intentions hidden.

Moscow’s Marines Head for Syria
The Russians have dispatched a naval task force to Syria. As if the place wasn’t enough of a mess already.
BY MARK KATZ | JULY 10, 2012

Ahmet Davutoglu – Turkey’s Foreign Minister talks to Marc Perelman of France 24: Davutoglu calls on the international community to act more firmly to usher in a transition in Syria without Assad.

Al-Assad and the Alawites
By: Abdullah Al-Otaibi | Asharq Alawsat

…Al-Assad’s marked bias towards his Alawite minority and his family – an attribute which he inherited from his father and which he thinks could be the way for his salvation – may in fact accelerate his downfall. Syria is a country of multiple religions and ideological sects with ethnic and tribal loyalties. Therefore, in view of the blatant Alawi sectarian orientation adopted by the regime, there is a strong endeavor to unify all these variant categories and the Sunni majority to face the regime.

The al-Assad regime is almost over, and now it is only a question of time before the regime’s illusions collapse on its head. If Bashar al-Assad is to find shelter in the outskirts of Tehran or Moscow, his Alawite sect will still remain in Syria. Hence today it is the duty of rational Alawites to side with the people and the country, and announce their complete disavowal of al-Assad’s sectarian and blood-thirsty policies; otherwise the son’s legacy in Syria will be even worse than his father’s.

The future of our Arab republics seems to be full of sectarianism, fractured social loyalties, and the ideologies and organizations of political Islam. However, the future is not promising in terms of development, civilization, awareness and advancement.

Syria’s Deadlock Can Be Broken Only By an Arms Embargo
By: Jonathan Steele | The Guardian

Russia and the west must use their leverage to bring about a ceasefire and halt Syria’s descent into full-scale civil war

As Islamists Gain Influence, Washington Reassesses Who Its Friends Are
By Scott Shane | The New York Times

Long-held beliefs about allies and potential enemies have been upset as the Obama administration navigates the tumultuous events of the Arab Spring.

Syria’s many new friends are a self-interested bunch
The National 21/7/12 – Charles Glass

In France, representatives of the US, Turkey, Britain, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Slovenia, South Korea, the UN and the rest demonstrated their friendship in a communique as vague as it was biased. The group urged more economic sanctions, humanitarian assistance to victims of violence and “stronger United Nations Security Council action.” It promised punishment for government war criminals, while neglecting to suggest that rebels who violate the Geneva Conventions should receive so much as a parking fine

NICHOLAS BURNS, FORMER UNDERSECRETARY OF STATE: CNN  on the topic of whether Elections are stopping US Intervention in Syria. Is Russia stopping it? Does US support Democracy in Egypt or the Military?

AMANPOUR: Let’s go straight to the heart of the matter. We’ve been seeing signals from Russia over the last 24 hours, at least, that there seems to be some kind of shift, at least publicly, the Russians agreeing to host the Syrian opposition, the Russians saying that they wouldn’t be sending new weapons to Syria and basically a call for Assad to talk to his adversaries.

What do you think that signifies?

BURNS: Well, Christiane, I think it’s apparent that the Russians are now reconsidering whether or not they believe that Bashar al-Assad can stay in power. As long as they believe that he might weather the crisis in Syria, they were supporting him with everything they had, including blocking Security Council resolutions put forward by the U.S. and others.

But since the defection of that senior military officer in Damascus, and the continued ferocity of the opposition in Syria, the Russians appear to be hedging their bets now. As you said, tomorrow there will be a meeting in Moscow with the Russian foreign minister and the leading anti- Assad coalition group.

And the F-130s, the advance military jets that were promised to Syrian Air Force will now not be coming. So the Russians are sending a quite powerful message to Assad that they can’t — that he cannot bank on their support, and I think that’s highly significant.

AMANPOUR: Or, as I explained in the lead-in to you, we had talked yesterday to Dimitri Simes, who I know you know. And let me just play you what he told us about this very relationship.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DIMITRI SIMES, PRESIDENT, CENTER FOR THE NATIONAL INTEREST: Russia would not welcome such an intervention; Russia would not approve such an intervention. It would not resist such an intervention and this intervention would not become a major issue in the U.S.-Russian relationship.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: So, Ambassador, he’s basically saying that he had hosted a top-level meeting, including a Russian delegation. And the very question of intervention was raised, and it was very strongly addressed as he put it. That seems to me a green light now for the U.S., likeminded international capitals, to decided to do what they want to do.

BURNS: Well, President Putin gave a speech this — yesterday morning, I should say, in Moscow, where he was very clear that he felt that there had to be a diplomatic solution, some kind of an agreement between Assad and the opposition as opposed to military intervention. So I would, with respect, I don’t agree with Dimitri Simes.

I think the Russians still would block any kind of planned international military intervention. They’d use their veto in Security Council for that. I just think that Russia is trying to put itself in the driver’s seat to be a potential peacemaker between Assad and the opposition, and they’re trying to preserve their influence.

AMANPOUR: Absolutely. I’m sure that’s all true. But of course, you know better than all that President Putin often says things in public. In fact, many leaders do for domestic consumption.

What he was talking about, Dimitri Simes, was not so much a U.N. Security Council resolution, but a Kosovo-style act. I mean, you were in the Clinton and Bush administrations. You remember when President Clinton went around Russia, intervened in Kosovo, and Russia did not stand in the way. Might not have liked it; Milosevic was much closer of an ally than Assad is.

So is it feasible to say, as Dimitri Simes has, that actually the U.S. and the West is hiding behind Russia, and using that as an alibi to take even stronger measures, even short of intervention?

BURNS: I don’t agree with that. I don’t think so. I think Dimitri’s not correct about that. I do think there is still, in effect, a Russian and Chinese veto.

The Chinese also, as a matter of precedent, don’t want to see United States march into another country to overthrow the regime and second, Christiane, as you know well and you’ve covered on your show, there are really important problems about any kind of military intervention. Libya was relatively easier for a variety of reasons.

Syria, because it’s dense urban warfare would be a very, very difficult undertaking. I think there are a lot of reasons why the United States has been reluctant.

AMANPOUR: How much do you think U.S. presidential elections are playing into this? And let’s be very frank. President Obama has essentially staked his presidency — well, no, even before. He took a position that he wanted to end these American military interventions and adventures. He has done in Iraq. He’s talking about withdrawing from Afghanistan. I mean, it’s on track. He obviously doesn’t want to get into another adventure.

How much are these elections playing into a decision right now?

BURNS: You know, it’s hard to say what’s — what factor the elections are going to play in a specific foreign policy case like Syria. I do think you’re seeing a great deal of caution from the United States.

And, frankly, I think it’s warranted, because Syria, of course, an explosion in Syria or a further problem in Syria caused by a U.S. intervention, would have repercussions for Lebanon, for Jordan and for Israel. So I think there is a premium here to be very cautious as they move forward.

Having said that, obviously the United States would like to see the continuation of efforts by countries like Turkey and Qatar (ph) and Saudi Arabia to put pressure on Assad. I still think the U.S. prefers a scenario where Assad leaves voluntarily rather than he leaves because the U.S. 82nd Airborne has marched into Damascus.

AMANPOUR: All right. But you know that nobody’s going to be marching in anyway, and nobody’s made that suggestion. But you do — you raise an interesting point. You talk about what could be a possible deal for Assad to step down. What do you think the United States should do diplomatically to facilitate Russia’s diplomacy?

BURNS: Well, you know, I think that Russia is a key country here. It obviously has a lot of interest in both Syria and Iran, and those are two key actors, and the Iranians have a lot of influence on Damascus. President Putin, if he chooses to play this, could become, in effect, the lead international diplomat in trying to convince President Assad to leave power, to exit Syria, to go into exile in some third country, perhaps in a deal to be forgiven any possibility of imprisonment or being tried for war crimes.

If President Putin wanted to be the one to make that happen, I think that you’d find a lot of countries supporting him, including possibly the United States and the European countries themselves.

AMANPOUR: Let’s go back to the role of U.S. elections and a more robust effort to find a solution to Syria. You talk about President Putin. You don’t really believe that he wouldn’t oppose — he wouldn’t oppose intervention.

But what about what the Turks are trying to do? And you just mentioned Turkey. As you know, the Turkish foreign minister came to Washington, met with secretary of state, met with a lot of State Department and other officials and presented a slew of alternatives, all the way from a coalition of the willing, with the Arabs on board, buffer zones at Syria’s border — which, by the way, the defectors have told us, if only there were buffer zones, you’d see the whole army defecting — humanitarian corridors to the besieged cities and a joint effort to help organize the army defectors.

He said that the U.S. basically said, no until after November, again raising this specter, that it is U.S. politics at the moment, despite the difficulties, as we know, that’s standing in the way. What do you make of the Turks saying that? It’s not Simes now, or Putin.

BURNS: Well, I didn’t hear the Turks say that, but you know, I think the Turks have been — you know, their relationship fell apart with Syria. There has been — there’s very bad blood between Prime Minister Erdogan and President Assad. The Turks are obviously trying to push the United States.

But the U.S. has to calculate not just the domestic impact in our elections here, but how about the foreign policy impact in countries that really matter to us? I’m thinking first and foremost of Israel, the importance of stability on the Golan Heights and Israel’s northern border, and of course Jordan and Lebanon, which are much more unstable countries.

I think the U.S. is trying to do no harm here. They obviously — we obviously want to see Assad leave power. They want to see the opposition strengthened. They want to see Assad out the door. I think the U.S. is still of a mindset they’d prefer to see that happen because Syrians make it happen rather than the United States taking a lead in a Kosovo- or a Libya- style military coalition.

AMANPOUR: And just before we switch to Egypt, Ehud Barak, the defense minister of Israel, told me in no uncertain terms that they think it’s time for some kind of intervention and to get rid of Assad like that.

But, look, let’s move to Egypt. What we’ve seen today is — and I know that you were a member of the staff of the embassy there in the `80s, so you know that country very, very well. There was a consultation (ph) today between the new president, Mohammed Morsi, and essentially the military, when he reconvened parliament for a very short period of time.

The military has now said — or rather the courts — that they stand by their decision; parliament is dissolved. So let’s see what happens. But in the meantime, why is the United States, the bastion of democracy, continuing to pay the military $1 billion a year with no conditions attached in terms of democracy?

Don’t you think it’s time for the U.S. to say, look here, we like you; we support you. You’re our ally (ph), but you can’t go around hijacking democracy if you want our billions.

BURNS: Well, I think United States is trying to preserve the influence that it does have with the Egyptian military at a really critical time.

Here, again, Christiane, I suspect that the motivation in Washington and some other capitals is, again, can we work with both sides — in this case the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Morsi and the Egyptian military — to try to get them to work out some modus vivendi, some way for them to coexist, live together, share power and have Egyptian democracy evolve in a positive direction.

I think the fear is that if United States comes down on one side or another and begins to pick winners and losers, it actually might exacerbate the problems in Egypt itself. And it was an extraordinary day in Egypt today.

And you saw a very bold move by Mohammed Morsi to, in effect, try to take back some of the powers that the military took from him just before the presidential elections. But I think the U.S. hopes it sees the Muslim Brotherhood rising in influence. It wants to have a relationship with them. It wants to retain influence with the new leadership.

But it understands that the military will have a say on certain questions, and particularly on security, the U.S. interests are paramount. The peace treaty with Israel and of course Egypt helping to block Iran. So the U.S. is trying not just to have it both ways, to have influence in two camps that may be sparring in Cairo for months into the future.

AMANPOUR: In one word, you said U.S. doesn’t want to come down on one side or the other. Doesn’t the U.S. have to come down on the side of democracy? The freely elected president?

BURNS: Well, I think — I think they did. When President Obama called President Morsi on the day of his election, the president and the White House have made very clear that we support the legitimacy of this new government, the Muslim Brotherhood government, that we want to see the results of the elections actually take hold and not be stolen by the courts.

I think the U.S. has actually stood up for democracy, whether we use our influence, Christiane, with the $1.3 billion, I think if the military began to act in clearly anti-democratic ways and tried to arrest the movement of this new government, then you might see some consideration of that in Washington.

Repercussions from the Tlass defection are still echoing. Sharmine Narwani claims his departure was not that important. Michel Kilo has recommended him as the transition leader of Syria. Others say it signifies the beginning of the end. Many opposition activists detest everything he stands for. I have tried to collect a cross-section of views on him.

The Wikileak articles are beginning to come out in greater numbers. At least one of the president’s emails discussed articles published on Syria Comment. – this one, for example, is a comment by Elie Elhadj, who wrote about Syria’s very serious water crisis on the pages of SC – here and here.This is a small bit of the original article:

“Investment in irrigation agriculture, which uses huge volumes of Syria’s finite water resources should be shifted to investing in low water using manufacturing industries based on rate of return criterion instead of political convenience or personal interest. Foreign currencies generated from exporting manufactured products, or from reducing the importation of manufactured goods, would be used to import foodstuffs. Agriculture in arid/semi arid Syria should be left to rain fed lands, with investment in modern technology to improve the yield and quality of rain fed produce. It should be remembered that irrigation schemes have left the water balance in five of Syria’s seven basins negative. In addition to the billions of dollars wasted on white elephant irrigation schemes, what a terrible loss of water that is!

This is his comment that Bashar picked up on – It came from an email that Elie sent to me and a few friends, including Camille Otrakji, who forwarded it to a friend who sent it to President Assad. The email was sent Feb 11, 2011 at 9:05 AM. President Assad was not upset by the insults to his father, as some journalists have suggested. He picked up on it because Syria was in the midst of its five year drought. He knew what a disastrous water crisis Syria faced and was trying to figure out how to reverse course – but of course – like so many of Syria’s problems, he failed to deal with it because it would have meant breaking too many eggs and potentially unraveling his regime and control.

Water resources and cotton plantation SCARY NUMBERS (from a discussion)

Email-ID	2105484
Date	2011-02-12 04:19:25
From	[email protected]
To	[email protected]

Check ????? ? ??

All of Syria’s cotton production is done on irrigated lands, not rain fed. Of Syria’s estimated 13 billion m3 of irrigation water more than 4 billion m3 is used to grow cotton. A cotton t-shirt requires about 2.7 tons of water to produce. Cotton requires four times as much water to grow as wheat.

Syria’s emphasis on irrigation has been wrong. Syria should invest in improving the yield of rain fed lands. There was a threefold increase in the productivity of water in rain fed wheat production in north-west Europe between 1800 and 1950. And a further trebling by 1990.

The Tabqa Dam is an economic disaster. The yes-men around Hafiz Asad lacked the balls to stop an ignorant military officer from wasting billions of dollars on a white elephant, made by his propagandist to be one genius of a project.

The World Bank concluded that Syria’s government will need to recognize that achieving food security with respect to wheat and other cereals in the short-term as well as the encouragement of water-intensive cotton appear to be undermining Syria’s security over the long-term by depleting available groundwater resources.

Another discusses OneMiddleEast.org, which was a major effort led by Camille Otrakji to get Israelis and Syrians discussing the Golan and avenues to peace. I participated in the project and pushed it on SC. Unfortunately it was seen in Damascus as a breach of security and law. He asked Syria’s head of the National Security Council to look into it. According to an article in al-Akhbar English:

A story published by The Guardian in 2010 about Syrian and Israeli bloggers interacting with each other on the OneMideast.org website, perked his interest, and he requested that it be translated and sent to an individual named “bekhtiar.” (doc-id 2095860)

Manaf Tlass as taciturn rebel?

EXTRA: Opposition proposes top Syrian defector for president
2012-07-09

Moscow (DPA) — Representatives of the Syrian opposition on Monday put forward Brigadier General Manaf Tlass, who defected earlier this month, to succeed President Bashar al-Assad. At a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, the opposition continued to insist that al-Assad must step down before a political dialogue can take place, according to the news agency Interfax.

Russia to suspend new arms to Syria: agencies
By Thomas Grove, MOSCOW | Mon Jul 9, 2012

(Reuters) – Russia will not deliver fighter planes or other new weapons to Syria while the situation there remains unresolved, the deputy director of a body that supervises Moscow’s arms trade was quoted as saying on Monday.

Davuto?lu says Turkey got Syria wrong in Hurriyet

” … Unfortunately, Turkey made a very serious mistake in Syria. It thought that, as in Libya the regime would collapse quickly and would be replaced with the AKP’s “brothers” the Muslim Brotherhood.

In search of peace: Annan arrives in Iran from Damascus

UN peace envoy Kofi Annan is in Iran after finishing a round of talks with Syrian authorities in Damascus. The trip reinforces Annan’s belief that Tehran is one of the key players in finding a solution to the conflict in Syria.

Annan described his talks in Damascus as constructive, saying the sides agreed to move ahead with implementing a peace plan proposed by the envoy.

“We agreed to an approach which I will share with the opposition,” he told reporters.

During his visit, Annan met with both Syrian President Bashar Assad as well as the country’s Foreign Minister Walid Muallem.

Damascus reiterated their commitment to Annan`s peace plan.

“In both meetings we reassured Annan of Syria’s commitment to implement the six-point plan and hope the other side is mutually committed,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi wrote on Twitter.

Meanwhile, the UN and Arab League special envoy has arrived in Iran, Syria’s main ally in the region.

On Saturday Annan said that Iran should be involved in the resolution of the crisis, because it is an “actor” in the situation whose participation is necessary.

Speaking to Le Monde, the envoy stressed the role of Moscow and Teheran in dealing with the conflict in Syria, saying that there is “no alternative” to Russia’s participation in a diplomatic solution and that Iran also “cannot be ignored.”

While Annan was holding talks with Syrian authorities in Damascus, Moscow has conducted a round of negotiations with the Syrian opposition. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with a Syrian delegation led by Michel Kilo on Monday.

The opposition delegation stated that the question of removing President Bashar Assad from power is secondary, while their primary goal is the transition from violence to democracy.

Following the talks, Lavrov pointed out to the importance of the Syrian opposition having a unified platform. The foundation of this platform should be an inclusive dialogue between the authorities and the opposition, the Minister said.

Moscow has also invited another prominent opposition group, the Syrian National Council (SNC), to come to Russia for talks. The delegation is expected to visit after July 10, the Foreign Ministry said, though no exact dates were announced.

The SNC has repeatedly said that it sees a solution for Syrian crisis only in the ouster of President Assad. The majority of Western countries consider the group to be the only “official” opposition. In April, Friends of Syria recognized the SNC as the “legitimate representative” of all Syrians.

Annan and Assad agree political approach for Syria – Reuters

 Putin: West exports ‘airstrike democracy’ to cling to Arab influence

Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized the West for clinging to its influence in the Arab world under the guise of “humanitarian operations.” He dubbed western involvement in Arab affairs as nothing more than a “rocket and bomb democracy.” At a meeting with top Russian diplomats Putin said that certain countries will do anything to retain the influence they have become accustomed to in the Arab world. He stressed that western nations often adopt a one-sided policy in Arab affairs that violates international law. RT’s Sean Thomas followed the address.

Interview with Assad, just recently conducted by the German publicist Jürgen Todenhöfer. The original English version.

Brig. Tlas Could be consensus solution
by Mohamed H.Hamdan in Damscus
Contributed to Syria Comment

The young Brigadier Tlas stopped wearing his military uniform and opted for civilian clothing months ago. He set up residence in Damascus, where he let his beard and hair grow long. Nobody expected that the aristocratic general with his boyish face and western life style could withstand Assad’s fall.

Gen. Manaf Tlas has let down his childhood friend President Bashar al-Assad. Tlas has forgotten memories which they shared, jokes they laughed at and Syria’s future they have drawn.

Michel kilo, a prominent figure in the Syrian opposition, told Russians in Moscow, ”Manaf Tlas is a good candidate to head a transitional government”. Kilo explained to the Russians that General Manaf Tlas was against “the Military- security solution of the regime.”

Syrian Activists feel worried now, some of them say Tlas’ defection is Plan B designed to protect Assad’s regime.

”Substituting Mr. Assad by Gen. Tlas with his military background and his deep relations can be Assad’s successor for the same Syria which protects the Russian and Iranian interests in the region.” Ahmed al-Khalaf, defected Lieutenant, based in Beirut, said.

Tlas relations with Mr. Assad became irreconcilable after the fierce assault on the Homs district of Bab Amr in February this year according to AFP. He was sidelined more than a year ago, after he was deemed unreliable.

Tlas’ close friends said that he did not like what he saw, and tried to do something to ease the crackdown, friends and opposition sources say. They credit him with intervening to negotiate local ceasefires.

Eyad Issa, close friend to Tlas family said “Manaf has been growing increasingly frustrated for months,” Tlas felt increasing dishonor as his hometown ‘al-Rastan’ /160 kilometers north of Damascus/ was being leveled and hundreds of his relatives fell dead or injured.

“He started to tell people he trusted that he wanted out, and that he has respect among the Free Syrian Army,” Issa said, referring to the rebel force that has attracted many officers and soldiers from Rastan.

Colonel. Adnan Ahmed, who joined Free Syrian Army (FSA), based in Turkey, has defended Brig.Tlass defection on ALJAZEERA TV. He said that al-Rastan with its 1146 officers is supporting Brig. Tlas. ”We know his intention to defect and now he did it.”

Peaceful demonstrations were silenced by the gun, prompting Rastan’s residents, many of whom served in the army and had the patronage of the Tlas family, to take up arms

Abdul-Razzak Tlas, Brig. Manaf’s cousin and a popular commander of the FSA in Homs and a former First Lieutenant in the Syrian army, is commanding the most powerful Brigades of FSA called al-Farouq Brigades which stand for 4 months in face of Syrian army artillery and bombardment in Homs district of Bab Amr.

Two weeks ago, Opposition sources have spoken of senior figures that are under suspicion of being potential defectors being held under virtual house arrest. Assad’s opponents have been trying to encourage as many of his entourage as possible to abandon him.

Munther Khaddam, well-known Assad’s opponent said ”when a cornerstone like Brig. Tlas defects the temple of Assad definitely will crack down’. ”Then a lot of secrets can be revealed”, added.

Syria’s government has lessened the impact of Tlas defection. A Syrian news website ”Syria steps” quoted a Syrian official on Thursday as saying: “His desertion means nothing, If Syrian intelligence had wanted to arrest him it would have.” But “It’s hard blow for the regime,” Abdul basset seida, the president of SNC said during Conference on Syria’s friends last week in Paris.

The French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said the same and confirmed Tlas defection which meant that Assad’s inner circle “is beginning to understand that the regime is unsustainable”. Fabius added.

US secretary of State Mrs. Hilary Clinton said Tlas defection suggests Assad’s insiders, Army are voting with their feet.”

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey, Syria’s NATO-member neighbor, agreed: “Every day, generals, colonels, officers are coming, and we have, I think, around 20 generals and maybe 100 high-ranking officers, colonels,” he told France 24 television.

Brigade 105 now according to well-informed source said Brigade 105 has been mixed with Maher al-Assad’s Brigade (Brigade 4) and Brigade 14 for special missions) after defecting 1200 soldier whom run away after their brig has defected between them about 43 high ranked officers – general and colonels

Syrian opposition with its armed wing FSA still looks to hear from the young general. What Kilo has recommended to Russian seems to be the waiting speech they are looking for.

”Brig. Tlas is consensus solution where all parties should agree on,” al-Khalaf said.

A Word on the Tlass Departure – by Maysaloon

Firstly I don’t think the Tlass family are members of any “aristocracy”. ….So why is he now being pushed as a potential successor to Assad?….

This is a particularly devastating and humiliating option for many Syrians… Tlass might be the least worst option, but this still isn’t good enough for a country that has given over fifteen thousand lives for its freedom, and tens of thousands of refugees and prisoners. I doubt that all these people died to replace an Alawite dictator with a Sunni one, but I’m confident about one thing, and that is that Syria’s freshly grown grass roots will now, and should remain, the final line of defence for the Syrian people’s liberties and fight against oppression. It is now more vital than ever that these grass roots groups and coordination committees dig in and consolidate. The hard work really begins once Assad goes.

Manaf Tlass: “Nobody stopped him from leaving and nobody worked on him to stay.”
Syrian General Manaf Tlass: Neither Here Nor There
By Sharmine Narwani – Sun, 2012-07-08 23:47- The Sandbox

Since the news of his departure broke a few days ago, Tlass has stayed quiet. It is unlikely that he has “defected” – that would suggest he is joining the opposition, and it is doubtful that any but the most opportunistic of them would embrace a figure so closely associated with the Assad history in Syria.

But here’s a tidbit that hasn’t made the rounds yet in this well-hyped story: until very recently, Tlass was telling members of Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle that he wanted the post of Minister of Defense.
“He believed he could help push forth a reform agenda, as he had envisioned with his old friend Bassel (al-Assad),” says an acquaintance of Tlass’.

A well-informed source close to the Syrian government tells me that Tlass had tested those waters last Spring before Assad announced a new cabinet in April 2011, from which he was excluded. In the early months of unrest in Syria, he had attempted to stem the crisis by mediating between the government and its opponents in various towns and cities, but had by most accounts not succeeded. Part of the problem appears to be that the Assad establishment did not put its weight behind his efforts after they faltered, choosing to pursue another strategy altogether. By August, as armed clashes and crackdowns escalated, Tlass was effectively sidelined by a regime that refused to entrust in his vision and was mistrustful of his family’s opposition credentials. He then simply stopped working, cut-off many of his ties with close friends and reigned in his legendary social life.

How does one just not go to work one day? A source explains that “Tlass’ military uniform was only 10% of his life anyway. The rest of his time was spent on running around, his social life, some business dealings. He was a privileged son of an important regime figure – that was his life and he had a sense of entitlement as did many others like him.”

But still Tlass apparently did not count himself out – he tried again for the top defense post in the lead-up to the last cabinet reshuffle, and was passed over a second time when Assad announced the new line-up on June 23.

The headlines this week that claim the “defection” of a major Syrian Army commander and a member of Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle lack a great deal of the nuance unique to Manaf Tlass’ case….

Tlass apparently felt snubbed by the president for not being promoted to Major General from his current status as Brigadier General, but importantly, is viewed within the army as a token regime appointment rather than a commander capable of leading his forces.

Is Tlass’ departure significant? Certainly, it has been useful for some perception-creating headlines. But he was neither a pivotal figure within the Syrian Army nor the political establishment. His importance was rather in relation to his father’s standing within the elder Assad’s coterie, and as a member of a leading Sunni family long associated with the regime.

The fact is, after almost a year of inactivity and relative isolation, Manaf was in political no-man’s land in Syria. Scorned by people in Rastan for his continued allegiance to Assad, and marginalized by the regime in both the political and military spheres, Tlass had nothing to gain or lose by sitting tight.

“I don’t blame him. He had to make a choice,” says a Syrian who knows Tlass. “Nobody stopped him from leaving and nobody worked on him to stay,” says another, who knows the elder Tlass well.

So he went to France. End of story. But that won’t stop the spin.

The final chapter in Syria is being written today – al-Arabiya
By Jihad el-Khazen, Monday, 09 July 2012

What is left for the Syrian regime after Brigadier General Manaf Tlas, commander of Brigade 105 of the Republican Guard, has defected?

There was a time when Manaf was being groomed to become the defence minister, like his father Lt. General Mustafa Tlas before him. Manaf had become eligible owing to his rank in the Republican Guard and the ruling party, and I believe the delay was only because of his young age.

Mustafa Tlas was one of the main pillars of the regime, perhaps even its backbone…..

Today in Syria, the final chapter of a popular uprising is being written, and I insist that the regime could have avoided it, had it not chosen the military-based solution and its stubborn insistence upon it, even when it failed month after month, making the problem worse.

Yet the solution will not come from a meeting in Cairo, Geneva or Paris, but from the heart of Syria itself.

The heart of the Arab needs an urgent heart surgery, but this will only succeed if it is to be performed by Syrians themselves.

From the Comment Section: “Shabih” writes:

What really pisses me off is that way you write about this “Sunni” [Tlas] being in favor of negotiation and dialogue while the “Alawite leadership” was in favor of killing and heavy-handedness. You write this while ignoring that many in your audience know that the “Alawite leadership” you speak of has been following the strategy of “negotiation, flexibility, and compromise” all over Syria. How many times have we heard of the rebels and army agreeing to pull back in cities? How many times have we heard about Bashar al-Asad holding personal dialogue with various delegations from cities and villages from all parts of Syria and beyond?…

The whole point is to paint a picture of Sunni vs Alawite. This whole crisis started because Sunnis wanted freedom and Alawites would prefer to kill them. That is the narrative you want to peddle while carrying the title of Syria expert…. I really can’t stand reading your material anymore. I might as well be reading WINEP’s propaganda.

Deputy PM Says Gas Shortages Structural – Syria Report

There is no structural solution to the domestic gas shortages facing the country as long as sanctions are in place, Qadri Jamil, the new deputy Prime Minister in charge of domestic trade and consumer production said, blaming “sons of b…” for the hike in prices.

Power Cuts Rise as Temperatures Increase – Syria Report
09-07-2012

The Ministry of Electricity is raising the daily number of hours of power cuts across Syria as rising temperatures lead to an increase in demand for electricity.

Starting July 2, the Public Establishment for the Distribution and Exploitation of Electrical Energy has increased power outages in Damascus to 3 hours per day from 2 hours previously.

In Aleppo, the country’s second largest city, power cuts are being increased from 3 to 4 hours a day, while in the rest of the country, power cuts are increasing to 5 hours a day. In each case the cuts are broken into two periods, one in the morning and another in the afternoon or evening…..

“No sect’s please; we’re Syrian” – Open Democracy – Syrian opposition activist, Rita, who must remain anonymous for her own safety, tells of a particularly harrowing encounter she had with the Syrian shabiha and how she managed to survive.

Nikolaos van Dam on Aljazeera “Inside Syria” with former General Akil Hashimi and Yasser Tabbara (SNC).

Nikolaos van Dam, How to Solve or Not to Solve the Syrian Crisis?, Orient, III-2012, pp. 31-37

Fear of Iran and Syrian Bloodletting, July 09, 2012
By Meir Javedanfar

Meir Javendanfar looks at how Western sanctions on Iran are enabling violence in Syria to continue.

Egypt: Morsi Moves to Restore Islamist Parliament – By: Steve Hendrix and Ernesto Loñdono | The Washington Post

Syrian General Defects, Heads To France As Assad’s Opponents Meet There
NPR – Heard on All Things Considered
Listen

Transcript

July 6, 2012 – ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:

Syrians Trying to Get into Lebanon July 8, 2012 (sent by a friend)

More now on that defection of a Syrian general. Not just any general, but Brigadier General Manaf Tlass. He’s the son of a former Syrian defense minister, Mustafa Tlass. It’s a Sunni Muslim family and one that is close to the ruling Assad family.

How important is this? Well, we’re going to ask Professor Joshua Landis, who’s a Syria expert who directs the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. He’s joining us from Norman.

Welcome back to the program.

JOSHUA LANDIS: Good to be with you, Robert.

SIEGEL: What does it say here that Brigadier General Manaf Tlass has defected?

LANDIS: It’s very important. The Tlass family is a keystone of the Sunni Alawite alliance that’s been the bedrock of this regime for 40 years. The fact that they have bailed out says that this regime is falling apart and the essential alliances are falling apart. Increasingly, this struggle is becoming one of sectarian communities, the Alawites against the Sunnis.

In the beginning, this was – it seemed like – angry young men from the countryside. The Sunnis were low class. They were from rural districts. They had nothing to lose. For a long time, everybody has been saying, where’s the Sunni elite? How come they’re not defecting? Well, here is, you know, Mr. Sunni elite defecting.

SIEGEL: Now, there is a declaration of defection that’s posted on your website. You say it’s impossible to verify, but it looks reasonable. And, in it, Tlass says, I call for all my comrades in the armed forces, whatever their rank, who are dragged into this fight against their fellow Syrians and against their own ideas to stop supporting this regime. Would you expect others to follow him?

LANDIS: I do. I think that this sends a signal that Bashar al-Assad doesn’t have the confidence of his top generals. The place is falling apart. Everybody’s going to begin looking for the exit. The problem is that Manaf Tlass is a man of great wealth. His family has got power. He can take a golden parachute and land in Paris. He’s fine. Most generals in the Syrian army don’t have much money. They don’t have bodyguards. They don’t have a way out. They can’t get their families out and Manaf is able to get his wife out. His brother and father got out before him. His sister is out. His son, we believe, was at AUB, the American University in Beirut. He has been able to really manage this exit very gracefully.

SIEGEL: Manaf Tlass also wrote in that declaration of defection, I was – I’m quoting from the translation – “progressively dismissed from my place of duty in the armed forces.” That suggests that his misgivings about what the regime was doing were known to his superiors and it implies that there is at least some kind of debate that’s been going on among senior officers, doesn’t it?

LANDIS: It does. And friends who’ve recently been with him in Damascus, had dinner with him, say he that he was very bitter. He had been given the task of trying to bring Harasta and Duma, two neighborhoods of Damascus in the suburbs that had led this revolutionary process to heal. And he had gone out to the opposition. He talked with them. He got them to back off, but he also negotiated this and agreed that the regime would back off.

The regime center said, we’re not going to do it this way. They came down like a ton of bricks, breaking heads and we’ve seen the violence that’s ensued. And, in a sense, the people like Tlass, who were looking for a softer landing for the regime, got pushed aside. And he was sidelined. That’s the word and that’s certainly the word he’s putting out and bitter about it.

SIEGEL: Professor Landis, would Manaf Tlass strike Syrian opposition forces as either a possible leader of their cause or a transitional leader or is he too deeply associated with the old regime to be a credible leader of a new one?

LANDIS: You know, the opposition, I’m sure, are all celebrating. This is an important crack in the regime, but there is going to be tons of bitterness against him. This family has been an architect of this regime. They’re not going to embrace him.

There are others. Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam, who defected in 2005 and joined the Muslim Brotherhood. That fell apart. And there’s Rifaat al-Assad, the uncle of the present president of Syria, who is also in Paris, but none of them have been embraced by the opposition. In fact, they’ve been forbidden to come to opposition meetings, so I think the Tlass family, although people will be very happy to see the regime crumbling, they’re going to have a very hard time ingratiating themselves with the opposition.

SIEGEL: Professor Landis, thanks for talking with us once again.

LANDIS: Well, it’s my pleasure. Thank you.

SIEGEL: Joshua Landis, who directs the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Clinton: Assad’s fall is certain
2012-07-06 UPI

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton welcomed reports Friday that a high-level general had defected from Syria.

Clinton: With more defections, Syrian regime’s ‘days are numbered’ – CNN

Why Russia Supports Syria – New York Times

Report in Arabic about FSA fighters in Turkey – how they cross the border and fight. Reporter interviews (video) FSA sharpshooter who explains how he shoots at anyone from certain Idlib border villages because they are “all regime loyalists” .

A Young Syrian’s Evolution From a Carefree Tour Guide to a Revolutionary
By ANNE BARNARD: July 7, 2012 – New York Times

… Abu Zeid and several friends took up arms after security officers shot demonstrators in Tadmur, the modern town near Palmyra. Now, alternately passionate and confused, Abu Zeid has only the dimmest idea of an endgame, swept up in a wave heading nowhere clear.

He wavers, unsure whether joining the revolt was his life’s proudest moment or its ruin — or both.

His exploits, sometimes more Keystone Kops than Che Guevara, left him feeling empowered but morally conflicted. He stole money and weapons, something he struggles to justify to himself. He endangered his neighbors, beat up an informer and narrowly escaped a raid that killed some of his friends after one drew attention to their hide-out by getting stuck in an elevator. Even his beloved camel ended up dead.

Now he is a jobless fugitive in a country bordering Syria, heartsick for a life in which, he said, “I felt like a king in my own way.

Like someone who grew up near the sea and is drawn to water, Abu Zeid spends hours visiting ancient ruins, quizzing people about his new country’s tourist industry. He worries that unrest will harm his family, or Palmyra’s antiquities. One moment he vows to go back and fight; the next he disavows violence.

“I hate my life this way,” he told a friend in a recent message….. In a recent meeting, he and one fellow fighter spoke little about democracy, offering no opinion on who or what should replace Mr. Assad. They said they acted in solidarity with the dead, and “for dignity.” … Recently, Abu Zeid received a French visa. He will be safe in his girlfriend’s mountain village, but he is vaulting further into the unknown.

BBC News reports: Sources close to Brigadier General Manaf Tlas, who met him days before he deserted, told the BBC he was very angry about what was happening in Syria and accused the regime of “taking the country to Hell”. “If I were him, I would have done an [former Turkish leader and political reformer […]

The tide begins to turn
Diplomacy is being overtaken by the armed struggle. But on both scores, Syria’s embattled president, Bashar Assad, is steadily losing ground
Jul 7th 2012 | BEIRUT AND CAIRO | Economist

…. the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the main group of armed rebel factions, shunned a subsequent meeting of Mr Assad’s opponents in Cairo on July 1st. The Syrian Revolution General Commission, the leading network of political activists inside Syria, left early in a huff. The biggest such event to date, it was intended to forge a common blueprint for the wider opposition and to give at least the impression of unity. But the factions from within Syria suspected that exile groups were seeking to curry favour with foreign diplomats and donors by endorsing the Geneva plan at the expense of the revolution that they are battling to expand back home.

The Cairo meeting did not mention the Geneva document but instead issued a vague set of constitutional principles, along with its own plan for a transitional government. Moreover, the intended show of unity was marred by rows over the composition of a joint committee to follow things up. Representatives of the Kurds, who make up around 15% of Syrians, walked out in protest against being termed an ethnic group rather than a people, and some left-wingers and secularists reiterated charges against the Syrian National Council, the largest exile group, that it was dominated by Islamists (in particular, the Muslim Brotherhood) and beholden to such foreign backers as Turkey, Qatar and the CIA.

For his part, Mr Assad had upped the ante on June 26th by announcing for the first time that Syria was indeed “at war”, decreeing new laws to punish his opponents (all lumped together as “terrorists”). State television broadcast a call for soldiers to seek “martyrdom” in service to the fatherland. His government voiced tepid approval of the Geneva plan, but as with Mr Annan’s previous plan, which it formally accepted but largely ignored in practice, suggested that its opponents should first drop their weapons.

This is not going to happen. The military pressure against Mr Assad is mounting. Day by day, town by town, the balance of power seesaws between the regime’s forces and its loosely organised but increasingly better-armed opponents. But the tide is running against Mr Assad. In the hilly north-western province of Idleb, almost incessant shelling by government forces has not prevented rebels from keeping de facto control over swathes of territory, including parts of the border with Turkey which is 900km (560 miles) long…..

Antoun Issa in al-Akhbar with a proposal for a third anti-war option on Syria.

General Fayez Amro of the Free Syrian Army [FSA] : A single foreign air strike is the solution.
al-Sharq al-Awsat

…He added “if the regime was subject to a single [foreign] air strike, this would save a lot of lives in Syria. This has become an international humanitarian crisis, and it is clear that what is happening in Syria is the result of the blatant Russian and Iranian interference, supporting the al-Assad regime with ammunition and manpower, not to mention the Hezbollah mercenaries…so what is wrong with international intervention?”

Jerusalem Post: Assad: Peoples’ support saves me from Shah’s fate
2012-07-05

ANKARA – Syrian President Bashar Assad said in an interview published on Thursday that he would have been toppled long ago like the shah of Iran if his people did not support him. “Everybody was calculating that I would fall in a small amount of …

Shenkar at WINEP

For Washington and the Syrian opposition, then, the key in the coming weeks will be to leverage Tlass’ defection to foment a decisive fissure in the military. While Tlass may not hold the key to Syria’s future, if properly handled, he could help close a gruesome chapter of Syria’s past.

Bashar al-Assad, left, and Manaf Tlass in Kuwait City in 1999.

How important is the Tlass Defection

Absolutely important – The Tlass family has been at the heart of the regime from the beginning. They are the keystone of the Sunni-Alawi alliance that has cemented the regime for 4 decades.

Abdul Halim Khaddam and the Tlass family were the two leading Sunni families in the state from the beginning, when Hafiz al-Assad, the architect of the regime, built the structures that have endured since. Bashar preserved the blueprint drawn up by his father.

Vice President Khaddam defected in 2005. His departure sent a shudder through the regime, but this time is different. The Tlas defection sends the sign that the regime is done for. No longer is this uprising merely about angry young men in the countryside. It has reached to the very top. The elite Sunnis are looking for the exit door – but it will be hard to replicate this defection. Manaf got the golden parachute into Paris. His family is all out – his father, brother, wife and children. He planned this carefully. He has the power and the means.

Other generals have no bodyguards, no visas, no money…. It will be a long and painful process for most to defect.

What is more the Alawite officers have their backs to the wall.

The regime will not just collapse. This is not “The Tipping Point” but it is very significant for morale. It sends a message: the game is up.

[End of Landis analysis]

Manaf Tlass’ declaration As issued by international press and media [Sent to me by a reporter for verification. It sounds correct but I cannot verify]

As issued by international press and media, I have just left Syria.

With the will to remain faithful to my military principles and loving feelings towards Syria, I have always tried to fulfill my duty with rightness, in order to preserve unity for Syria and its people.

I did not joined the armed forces to see this army harm its own people, without giving systematically a chance to political solutions.

Thus, because I was in complete opposition with the unjustified violence and crimes committed by Assad’s regime in the past months, I was progressively dismissed from my place of duty in the armed forces.

Today, I call for all my comrades in armed forces, whatever their rank in the hierarchy, who are dragged into this fight against their Syrian fellows and against their own ideals, to end supporting this regime.

I recognize the legitimacy of the fight of the opposition members to the regime, particularly the ones on the ground. In this respect, let me be grateful to those who made it possible for me to leave the Syrian territory where my own person and family were threatened.

In the coming days, I will make a statement on my motives and the possibilities that the future offers me.

Long life to Syria!

General Manaf Tlas

PARIS — Opponents of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria met here on Friday with their international sponsors to intensify pressure for his removal, buoyed by word that Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, a commander in the elite Republican Guard, and a member of the Damascus aristocracy, had defected and fled the country….

“Here you have more than 100 countries meeting to support the Syrian resistance with further sanctions, with humanitarian funds and with the demand that Bashar al-Assad be brought before the courts,” Mr. Fabius told Europe 1 radio earlier….

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, Tuesday called the “Friends of Syria” forum redundant after the weekend talks in Geneva, saying that the participation of more than 100 countries in Paris made it “impossible to have serious dialogue.”…

“The main elephant in the room is the lingering divisions among the Syrian opposition,” said one senior official. “The main challenge is to get the Syrian opposition to act in concert. They still need to get their act together.”

But Ms. Kadmani, the Syrian National Council spokeswoman, insisted that the Syrian opposition was united over the goal of overthrowing Mr. Assad and that criticism of the opposition was being used by the west to distract from its own lack of political will. “Criticizing the opposition is being used as a pretext by the international community to distract from their own divisions and lack of determination,” she said….

Senior Syrian military officer reportedly defects to Turkey  – Liz Sly – Wash Post

ANTAKYA, Turkey — Pro-government news outlets in Syria reported Thursday that a powerful military officer and longtime close associate of the Assad family had fled to Turkey, in what could be the first sign of a crack in the regime’s inner circle.

For Top Syrian Defector, a Path Less Traveled
Wall Street Journal

Here is the wikileaks first e mails

Syria opposition rifts give world excuse not to act
Published: Wednesday, 4 Jul 2012 | CAIRO (Reuters)

A brawl at a meeting of the Syrian opposition this week in Cairo put on display the divisions among those struggling to oust President Bashar al-Assad and provides an excuse for world powers who have been wary of intervention to sit on their hands.

The row that spilled into the marble-lined corridors of a five-star Cairo hotel on Tuesday came at the end of a two-day meeting sponsored by the Arab League that had begun with appeals from Arab and Turkish ministers for a show of unity.

There was little sign of solidarity from the outset as the 200 or so members of Syrian opposition groups and activists, ranging from Islamists to secularists, most of them living in exile, haggled over the shape of a post-Assad Syria.

“Such disputes will tarnish the image of the opposition and destroy the spirits of our rebel fighters inside,” said activist Gawad al-Khatib, 27, who watched in tears of frustration when Kurdish activists stormed out after trading blows with rivals inside the meeting hall. Opponents shouted abuse as they left….The Cairo meeting, one of the biggest such gatherings of Assad’s opponents, was supposed to help rally the opposition around broad principles for a new Syria and to appoint a follow-up committee that would have acted as their face to the world.

It fell short of that. They could not agree on a committee and many left with reservations about the main documents presented to them, which outlined principles on governing Syria in transition and drafting a new constitution……

The groups all backed broad principles for a future democratic state, even if agreement on details eluded them. “We can handle this later on,” he said. After Kurds stormed out, Radwan Ziadeh, a leader in the opposition Syrian National Council, said fresh discussions would be held on Wednesday evening to bridge gaps. But the overture was rejected by Kurdish National Council leader Morshed Mashouk, who said he would not sit with “those narrow-minded people.”

The senior diplomat sought to explain the often heated sessions and short tempers by saying: “Everyone wants everything now. When they meet they all have their grievances”.

But he said world powers, whatever their worries, could not afford to stand idle. “This is dangerous. If the situation stays like this, we fear having a failed state in Syria,” he said.

White and Tabler at WINEP on Tlas defection

…Going forward, Washington should consult closely with Sunni figures who choose to leave the regime, as they can play a key role in bringing Assad’s rule to an end. Sunnis such as Tlass could also serve as important figures in a post-Assad transitional government, able to keep the peace while elections are held for a new democratic Syria. Although Tlass and those like him may have blood on their hands, the opposition, which repesents the Sunni majority, would likely support them rather than any Alawite candidates Assad puts forward to participate in the “transitional government” outlined by Kofi Annan’s plan.

Halting Syrian Chaos by Robert D. Kaplan and Kamran Bokhari
July 4, 2012 | Stratfor

What if Syrian President Bashar al Assad really goes? There is an assumption in the West that the way to win a strategic victory over Iran and improve the human rights situation inside Syria is to remove the Syrian leader. It is true that Iran’s prospects of keeping Syria as its own Mediterranean outpost are probably linked with the survivability of al Assad’s regime. But his removal might well hasten the slide into chaos within Syria and in adjacent Lebanon, rather than slow it. Al Assad’s departure could even ignite a disintegration of the Syrian power structure into various gangs and militias…..

One can also argue that from a human rights perspective, chaos can be worse than authoritarianism. To wit, the record of decapitation as it refers to fierce authoritarian regimes in the Islamic world is grim. Libya has slid into low-level chaotic violence in which the writ of the central government is nonexistent throughout broad reaches of the country. Nearby Mali has erupted into anarchy — a situation ignited by regime change in Libya. The administration of George W. Bush decapitated the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, an act that cost perhaps 200,000 Iraqi lives over a few short years, even as Saddam had directly killed perhaps four times that many over the previous third of a century.

Then there are the examples of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. When the Soviet state collapsed, it led to a rash of ethnic and regional wars across the Caucasus and Central Asia — tens of thousands of people were killed in Tajikistan alone — while in Yugoslavia, ethnic war resulted in 140,000 lost lives. Remember that the dynastic regime of the al Assads in Syria was built on an east bloc model during the height of the Cold War….

Regional stability and moral considerations both require a transitional phase in Syria, not cold turkey democracy. Cold turkey democracy coupled with regime collapse in Syria, given the historical record, risks bloody anarchy. And a transitional phase may require an implicit deal between the United States and Iran. Iran and the United States have a record of dealing with each other behind the scenes; the Bush administration and the ayatollahs did likewise in Iraq even as they fought each other there.

The Iranians, like the Americans, are already looking beyond al Assad. They are identifying generals and leading businessmen who could rule in his place and maintain the overall regime structure. There may come a point where American and Iranian interests in Syria overlap at least to the extent of agreeing on al Assad’s replacement. Though, to repeat, the situation in Syria will probably have to further deteriorate before reaching that stage. Iran has to be made to feel that al Assad is no longer an option. We are not there yet. The fact that Syrian air defenses were able to shoot down a Turkish plane without incurring a military response means al Assad is still formidable.

The real horse-trading, if and when it comes, may involve Turkey and Iran. Turkey wants to replace the entire regime structure; Iran wants the opposite. That’s why both Ankara and Tehran will need to compromise, identifying high-ranking Syrians, probably military, who will protect each country’s interests and upon whom a new regime can be based. If Turkey and Iran can reach some sort of agreement, it can then be blessed by both the United States and Russia…..

Syria’s situation is dire. From both a moral and geopolitical point of view, fighting a proxy war with Iran and Russia there is less desirable for the United States than reaching out to them.

One Last Chance for Diplomacy as Syria Declares a Civil War
Syria’s Last Chance – Paul Salem – Carnegie

op-ed, National | Paul Salem writes that this is the last chance for diplomacy in Syria. If the country does not step back from the brink, the depth and breadth of violence will increase dramatically…..

Moscow is in close contact with the Syrian regime as well as with hundreds of officers in the Russian-trained and equipped security forces. It will also host the Syrian opposition later this month. There is still a chance that Russia can engineer a resolution.

Although there has been much talk of a “Yemeni model”, what Russia is contemplating might be closer to an Egyptian model: in Egypt, the armed forces assisted in the “soft” removal of the president and his inner circle while preserving their own power and continuing to dominate the political, security and constitutional processes.

In any case, if Mr Putin is able to translate the Geneva communique into results on the ground, the worst will be avoided and the country might actually enter into a managed transition.

Jihadists claim Syria attacks
By ELIZABETH A. KENNEDY, Associated Press – 1 hr 7 mins ago

BEIRUT – An al-Qaida-inspired group claimed responsibility for dozens of attacks across Syria, the latest evidence that extremists are exploiting the chaos to make inroads in another Middle Eastern country.

The Syrian regime has long blamed terrorists for the 16-month-old revolt, and the presence of al-Qaida groups creates new difficulties for Arab and Western countries trying to help force President Bashar Assad from power.

The opposition and the rebel Free Syrian Army deny having any links to terrorism, and say they do not have the desire or the capabilities to carry out massive suicide bombings and other al-Qaida-style attacks.

On Tuesday, the SITE monitoring group, which tracks jihadist chatter on the Internet, said the Al-Nusra Front released statements on extremist websites in late June claiming the attacks were to avenge the killings of Syrians by the government.

One of the attacks targeted a pro-regime television station in the town of Drousha, south of the capital, Damascus, on June 27. Seven people were killed in the attack on Al-Ikhbariya TV.

Al-Nusra said the station is an arm of the regime and the attack sought to make the station “taste from the cup of torture” and force every member of the regime to wonder: “When will my turn come?” The statement included photos of 11 men it said were kidnapped in the attack.

More Syrian Circassian refugees arrive in the North Caucasus – Jamestown Foundation

….On June 22, two groups of Circassian refugees from Syria, totaling 31 people, arrived in Nalchik. Nine of them were resettled in the homes of relatives, while the rest were accommodated in resort hotels. Beslan Khagazhei, a member of the Peryt organization, told the Kavkazsky Uzel (Caucasian Knot) website that more than 220 refugees have arrived in Kabardino-Balkaria since the start of the civil war in Syria (http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, June 23).

On June 18, the seventh Circassian Day took place at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Walter Richmond, an American historian who is about to publish a book about the Circassian genocide, delivered a speech at the gathering. He assessed Circassian losses during the acute phase of genocide inflicted by the Russian Empire on the Circassian lands. “Based upon all the documentary evidence, my conservative estimate is that between 320,000 and 400,000 people died in the period October 1863-April 1864,” he said. “Many more died en route to Turkey and after their arrival there, increasing the estimated death toll to a minimum of 625,000. Assuming an 1860 population of 1.5 million and an annual growth rate of two percent, the current population of Circassia would be approximately thirty million. The actual Circassian population worldwide, by contrast, is between four and six million, with only 700,000 living in the Russian Federation.” Richmond concluded his speech with a call to the international community to become aware of the tragic events that took place 150 years ago near the planned site of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi.

CNN: Al-Assad: Don’t compare us to Egypt
2012-07-05

The Syrian president says his country’s opposition movement has failed to duplicate the kinds of mass protests that unfolded in other Arab nations.

The Little Syrian Town That Could
The amazing protest posters of occupied Kafr Anbel.
BY DAVID KENNER | JULY 5, 2012

Gary Gambil, “Bashar Assad can always find refuge with the Alawites” (National Post, Toronto)

…..For Assad, staying and fighting to the bitter end doesn’t mean going down with the ship. When the day comes that he can no longer stave off the fall of Damascus, his minions can easily fall back to Alawite areas in the mountains and coastal plains of northwestern Syria. Tehran, preferring a fragmented Syria to a unified hostile Syria, will happily continue providing them with arms and financing. Even with Turkey and the Arab Gulf states supporting opposing proxies, former regime forces and affiliated Alawite paramilitaries (shabiha) can hold out for years. Having intervened extensively in Lebanon for decades, they have the perfect skill set for surviving the Lebanonization of Syria.

…..When the time comes, Assad won’t have much difficulty rallying Alawites (and many other non-Sunnis) behind the de facto cantonization of Syria. Given centuries of pre-existing Sunni hostility to heterodox Muslims and the scale of regime atrocities during the past four decades, Alawite fears of violent retribution are well-grounded and ripe for exploitation. Because the regime has heavily suppressed independent Alawite religious and social institutions over the years, the community has little capacity to mobilize around alternative leaders. By hook or by crook, Assad will lead it into the abyss.

General Manaf Tlass, One of Syria’s top Sunni Military Figures from the Inner-circle of Bashar al-Assad, has Defected.
Bashar al-Assad and Manaf Tlass, sons of the President and Defense Minister, attending military training in the 1990s

Addendum: My sources in Damascus say that Manaf’s house is being ransacked earlier today. The source went by the house in person.

Spokesperson of Turkish foreign Ministry: Two high rank officers in the Syrian Army have arrive to Turkey during the last three days. He didn’t wish to reveal their names. However, there are wide range media speculation that one of those officers is Manaf Tlas, the son of EX Syrian Defence Minister

Kim Ghattas (@BBCKimGhattas)
7/5/12 2:10 PM
Message posted by one of Tlass brothers on social media seems to confirm they have defected #Syria

Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin)
7/5/12 11:08 PM
?????: ????????? ???????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ????? ??? ??? ????? ??? ????? ??- Says that French intelligence are overseeing his transportation to Paris, where he arrived today.

For 16 months the opposition has been complaining that elite Sunnis have not defected. That complaint can now, officially, be put to rest if the stories of Manaf’s flight prove to be true. In March it was rumored that he had led with his father and brother, but those stories were false.

Manaf Tlass, the son of ex-Defense Minister (1972 – 12 May 2004), Mustafa Tlass, has fled the country. Mustafa Tlass was instrumental in smoothing the way for Bashar to assume power after the death of his father.

When Hafez al-Assad died in June 2000, his son Bashar was immediately promoted in military rank by Defense Minister Mustapha Tlass. He was also made secretary-general of the Baath Party whereas Manaf became a member of the Party’s Central Committee and an officer in the Republican Guard.

On Tuesday, all of Syria was buzzing that Manaf had defected but there was no confirmation. His Honda had supposedly turned up in the Rukn ad-Din neighborhood of Damascus, but he was no where to be found. Rumors of his possible defection were wide-spread on Twitter.

Syria-Steps, an on-line news source in Syria that is known for being pro-regime, has just confirmed the rumors. It claims:
??? ???? ???? ???? ??????? “???????????” ???? ?????? ???? ????? ???? ??? ?????..
“A highly placed source in intelligence has confirmed that General Manaf Mustafa Tlass has fled to Turkey.”

Manaf Tlass’s father and brother, Firas who is a leading businessman, are believed to be out of the country. The father had gone to Paris on the pretext of getting medical attention. Firas is said to be in Dubai. It is not clear where the women and children of his family are.

Manaf Tlass was a close confidant of Bashar from his earliest days and part of his inner circle or “shille”, which included people, such as his cousins Rami and Hafiz Makhlouf,  Mudar al-Assad (son of Rifaat), Nader Qala’i (ex-CEO of Syriatel and business partner to Rami) Yazan Aslan (son of Ali Aslan, Chief of Staff)

Manaf is as handsome as a movie star and carried a lot of authority. He was a true military guy and had spent his entire life in the military, unlike Bashar. People close to him say that when he walked into a room, all eyes turned to him. Not only did women find him attractive, but men did as well. He carried himself with an air of self-confidence and authority. He is smart, dashing and cunning.

The word is that Manaf had been told to solve the Harasta and Duma problems (the growing uprising on the outskirts of Damascus). He did a good job by negotiating with the opposition leaders in both suburbs, agreeing that both government forces and opposition would pull back. The Alawi leadership said “no, that is not how we are going to do this.” They pushed him aside and came down like a ton of bricks on the opposition in both neighborhoods, in an effort to assert state authority and crush the uprising through military means.

Manaf supported a policy of negotiation, flexibility and compromise. He was overruled by the military leadership and has since looked for a way out.

If he has indeed fled the country, the regime will be thrown back on its heels. Manaf is perhaps the most senior Sunni in the regime because he was a close friend of Bashar, he came from the Tlass family which had been at the Assads’ side from the earliest days of Hafiz’s assumption of power, and because he was situated at the heart of the military. When foreign statesmen or Syrians thought of a Sunni who could possibly take power, Manaf had to be at the top of the list or very close to the top. Of course, Farouq al-Sharaa, the VP is usually thought of as the Sunni who could serve as an interim leader because he is Vice President, but Manaf is respected by Bashar’s generation and a military leader.

The Tlass family in 1990s? Manaf is on the right. From right to left: Colonel Manaf Tlass and his wife Tala, General Mustafa Tlass and his wife Lamia, Firas Tlass and his wife Rania (Rania is a Jabri (a leading Sunni notable family of Aleppo).

85 SYRIANS SOLDIERS, INCLUDING GENERAL, DEFECT: AP

Turkish media reported that at least 85 Syrian troops, including a general and six other officers, defected to Turkey late Monday and brought 300 family members with them in a mass bid for asylum….

Foreign Policy

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has expressed regret for the downing of a Turkish F-4 Phantom jet on June 22. In an interview on Sunday with Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet, Assad initially offered no apology, insisting the warplane was shot down over Syrian territory. However, while details of the incident are still under dispute, Assad spoke to Cumhuriyet on Tuesday stating, “I say 100 percent, I wish we did not shoot it down.” He insisted that Syria believed it to be an Israeli plane. While Turkey is ramping up forces along the Syrian border, Assad said he would not allow tensions to escalate into “armed conflict” between the two former allies. At the same time, Turkey’s state television, Andolou, reported a Syrian general and 85 soldiers have sought refuge in Turkey in a growing wave of defections from the Syrian army. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch released a report Tuesday saying Syria is running 27 torture centers across the country. It included tens of thousands of cases in which people had been detained by the Department of Military Intelligence, the Political Security Directorate, the General Intelligence Directorate, and the Air Force Intelligence Directorate. The human rights watchdog called for the United Nations Security Council to refer Syria to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and chastised Russia for “holding its protective hand over the people who are responsible for this.”

MOUNTING PRESSURE ON THE SYRIAN ARMY
By Jeffrey White – WINEP

The Syrian army is Bashar al-Assad’s main prop — without it, his regime would soon fall. So far, the military has withstood the stresses associated with months of combat against an increasingly capable opposition force, the steady geographic expansion of its mission, and a stream of defections and casualties. Yet these pressures are mounting, and the army likely cannot resist them indefinitely. At some point it will break, disintegrate, or withdraw to the Alawite heartland in order to preserve remnants of the regime. Alternatively, some units may move against the regime in order to save themselves. To increase the pressure and accelerate the process, the international community should provide additional military assistance to vetted and effective armed opposition forces.

THE CHANGING NATURE OF THE WAR
Syria’s internal war, pitting regime forces against the armed opposition, has been unfolding for a year now, and the nature of the fighting has evolved from intermittent, scattered clashes to more or less sustained combat across broad areas of key governorates. …

Overall, last month saw fighting in more than eighty locations across the country, up from seventy in May, with dramatic increases in Latakia and Deir al-Zour governorates. The pace of conflict between regime forces and the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA) is accelerating, with June featuring the greatest number of clashes since the beginning of the conflict. Over 250 clashes were recorded by the opposition Local Coordination Committees and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) in their June reports….

Diplomacy failing, West faces tough Syria choices
By Peter Apps

(Reuters) – There are few signs diplomacy can stem Syria’s worsening conflict, leaving Western leaders – and even more so their Arab and Turkish allies – pushed ever further towards backing Bashar al-Assad’s ouster by force….

Washington has long worried about the wisdom of backing Syria’s opposition, which it sees as ill-organized, disparate and much too close to al Qaeda-linked militants. It has limited aid to “non-lethal” equipment, such as radios. And, in an election year, the White House is anxious to avoid anything that may look like an Afghan-style, open-ended military intervention.

Yet it also acknowledges that some of its allies have opted to get more involved in actively support the rebel campaign.

“We’re concerned about pouring more weapons into an already over-militarized situation,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said on Monday. “We’ve made our decision.

“Other countries are making other decisions. Our goal now is trying to stay coordinated.”

Though public details on aid to the rebels are scant, U.S. officials say Saudi- and Qatari-funded weaponry is finding its way, mostly via Lebanon, into Syria, to be used against Assad, whose Alawite religion and alliance with Shi’ite Iran distance him from the Sunni Muslims who run most other Arab states.

‘Shift’in Russia, China positions on Syria: Annan
2012-07-03

July 3 (PTI) — The “shift” in the positions of Russia and China on Syria should not be underestimated, the spokesman for peace envoy Kofi Annan said today after international talks in Geneva.

France, Germany say Assad should leave power
Posted: Jul 03, 2012

PARIS (AP) – The top diplomats of France and Germany say Syrian President Bashar Assad should leave power, even though a U.N.-brokered political transition plan leaves his future role open.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Tuesday, “Bashar Assad is a slaughterer and the sooner he leaves the better.” France is hosting a meeting of diplomats Friday aimed at finding ways to end violence in Syria.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, after talks with Fabius, said Assad’s acts have been “unpardonable” and his reign “must end.” Westerwelle goes to Moscow on Thursday, and said he will try to persuade Russia to be firmer against Assad.

A U.N.-brokered plan adopted in Geneva on Saturday calls for a transitional government. But at Russia’s insistence, the compromise said Assad could be part of the interim administration.

Arabs urge Syria opposition unity
Gulf Times – 03 July, 2012

Arab states and Turkey urged Syria’s divided opposition yesterday to unite and form a credible alternative to the government of President Bashar al-Assad, but rifts swiftly emerged at talks in Cairo…..

The talks included about 10 groups, including the leading Syrian National Council (SNC) which has itself faced splits in its ranks, plus other activists and Syrian individuals.

The attendees ranged from secularists to Islamists, and differences in their views appeared early in the two-day talks.

“On the top item of the document that we are all supposed to sign and agree to, there is an item asking for the full separation between religion and state, which we don’t agree to,” said Khedr al-Sotari of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood, although he said the group was not seeking a religious state.

Adib Shishakly, a member of the SNC, said one of the biggest challenges was bridging the gap between Syrians in exile and those on the ground protesting against Assad.

“The main problem we are facing is the division between the opposition groups inside and outside Syria, which is a crucial matter because those inside Syria will have to play a big role in any institutional set up,” he said.

Walid al-Bunni, a doctor jailed for years in Syria for his activism before fleeing last year, said the meeting aimed to form a co-ordinating committee that would not lead the opposition but would implement group decisions and be a face for the world.

Some said they would oppose giving such a committee a big role. “We are against this proposed follow-up committee having powers to execute decisions,” said Nouri al-Jarrah, head of a Syrian writers group.

One Arab League diplomat said the Syrian opposition’s failure to unite strengthened Assad’s position and made it more difficult for the world to respond, contrasting the way opponents of deposed leader Muammar Gaddafi had closed ranks.

No Dog in This Fight
Why Obama is playing it smart on Syria.
BY AARON DAVID MILLER | JULY 2, 2012

….The moral and strategic arguments for a more muscular U.S. role may be compelling. The killing goes on day after day and America watches. Bosnia redux? Syria is truly important; it is not Libya. Its unique geopolitical location — with Lebanon, Israel, Iraq, and Turkey as neighbors and Big Daddy Iran just over the horizon — make its future of critical importance.

Still, for an American president, there are other considerations that need to be weighed — …

Here’s a politically incorrect guide to the president’s thinking on Iran and Syria between now and November.

The Hero of Detroit, Not Damascus

Most Americans don’t even know where Syria is. I’m not trying to demean my fellow countrymen, only to highlight a fundamental truth these days.

After watching the two longest wars in American history — with 6,000 dead and counting and more than a trillion spent and counting, not to mention the thousands of troops grievously wounded and the loss of credibility, Americans want the focus to be on fixing their own broken house, not repairing somebody else’s.

The public, poll after poll suggests, doesn’t want to withdraw from the world, but does want to be smarter about how the United States operates abroad, and wants above all to concentrate more on domestic priorities…..

Foreign Policy Adventures: No Upsides…

Rarely has foreign policy — outside of rising oil prices and terror attacks — been less relevant to American voters. It figures almost not at all in a campaign focused on unemployment, disposable income, and mortgage woes. Republicans are having a hard time finding vulnerabilities in the Obama’s foreign policies, I’ve argued elsewhere, and a consensus has emerged between the two candidates on some of the core foreign-policy issues.

What this means in practical terms is that success abroad — even spectacular success — won’t mean much in election currency. As long as the administration doesn’t allow the Republicans to outflank it on the one foreign issue Americans do care about — fighting terror — there’s not much upside to risking military action or a big peace initiative that could be messy, costly, and worst of all seen as a failure. In political terms, Obama’s Middle East policy has been pretty successful — killing Osama bin Laden and whacking al Qaeda operatives from one end of the planet to the other, getting out of Iraq, and taking out Muammar al-Qaddafi without owning a mess in Libya. Other issues — Israeli-Palestinian peace or the Arab spring turned winter — really don’t matter much in terms of the election, unless of course the president stumbles….

Can The World Survive Washington’s Hubris?
By: Paul Craig Roberts| June 28, 2012

When President Reagan nominated me as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, he told me that we had to restore the US economy, to rescue it from stagflation, in order to bring the full weight of a powerful economy to bear on the Soviet leadership, in order to convince them to negotiate the end of the cold war. Reagan said that there was no reason to live any longer under the threat of nuclear war.

The Reagan administration achieved both goals, only to see these accomplishments discarded by successor administrations. It was Reagan’s own vice president and successor, George Herbert Walker Bush, who first violated the Reagan-Gorbachev understandings by incorporating former constituent parts of the Soviet Empire into NATO and taking Western military bases to the Russian frontier.

The process of surrounding Russia with military bases continued unabated through successor US administrations with various “color revolutions” financed by the US National Endowment for Democracy, regarded by many as a front for the CIA. Washington even attempted to install a Washington-controlled government in Ukraine and did succeed in this effort in former Soviet Georgia, the birthplace of Joseph Stalin.

The President of Georgia, a country located between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, is a Washington puppet. Recently, he announced that former Soviet Georgia is on schedule to become a NATO member in 2014.

Those old enough to remember know that NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, was an alliance between Western Europe and the US against the threat of the Red Army overrunning Western Europe. The North Atlantic is a long, long ways from the Black and Caspian Seas. What is the purpose of Georgia being a NATO member except to give Washington a military base on the Russian underbelly?

The evidence is simply overwhelming that Washington–both parties–have Russia and China targeted. Whether the purpose is to destroy both countries or merely to render them unable to oppose Washington’s world hegemony is unclear at this time. Regardless of the purpose, nuclear war is the likely outcome.

The presstitute American press pretends that an evil Syrian government is murdering innocent citizens who only want democracy and that if the UN won’t intervene militarily, the US must in order to save human rights. Russia and China are vilified by US functionaries for opposing any pretext for a NATO invasion of Syria.

The facts, of course, are different from those presented by the presstitute American media and members of the US government. The Syrian “rebels” are well armed with military weapons. The “rebels” are battling the Syrian army. The rebels massacre civilians and report to their media whores in the West that the deed was done by the Syrian government, and the Western presstitutes spread the propaganda.

Someone is arming the “rebels” as obviously the weapons can’t be purchased in local Syrian markets. Most intelligent people believe the weapons are coming from the US or from US surrogates.

So, Washington has started a civil war in Syria, as it did in Libya, but this time the gullible Russians and Chinese have caught on and have refused to permit a UN resolution like the one the West exploited against Gaddafi.

Guardian (GB): Military intervention in Syria would be disastrous for its people
2012-07-03, Sami Ramadani

Syrians opposed to intervention are ignored by a de facto alliance against the Shia ‘crescent’ between the US, Saudi Arabia, Israel and al-Qaida… It is opposition by the “crescent” to hegemony by the US and Israel, rather than religion or human rights, that worries Washington and its dictatorial allies in the region. For it wasn’t very long ago that the Saudi rulers bankrolled the so-called “Alawite-Shia” regime of former Syrian president Hafez al-Assad and had good relations with “Shia” Iran under the shah’s dictatorship…..

US general Wesley Clerk, the former supreme commander of allied forces in Europe, once revealed that within weeks of the 9/11 terrorist atrocity the then secretary of defence Donald Rumsfeld described how “we’re going to take out seven countries in ..

Syria: Torture Centers Revealed
For 27 Detention Sites: Locations, Commanders’ Names, Torture Metho

(New York, July 3, 2012) – Former detainees and defectors have identified the locations, agencies responsible, torture methods used, and, in many cases, the commanders in charge of 27 detention facilities run by Syrian intelligence agencies,…

Daily Mail (GB): ‘We took their fingernails out with pliers and we made them eat them. We made them suck their own blood off the
2012-07-03

Human Rights Watch report released as Syrian President Bashar Assad says he regrets the shooting down of a Turkish jet by his forces last month Group says tens of thousands of people had been detained across Syria by intelligence agencies Detainees …

When Bashar al-Assad goes, his regime, in all probability, will go with him. His remaining followers will run for the doors causing the Baathist edifice of the Syrian state to come crashing down like a house of cards. After all, it is built on loyalty to the man and family.

Many are looking for a way to broker a soft landing for the regime. Although noble, this undertaking may be a fool’s errand.

The next leaders of Syria will want to purge the Party and Assad loyalists from government. They will have to reward their own and build a new system staffed by those now sacrificing for the regime’s overthrow. This is what happened in Iraq, the other home of the other Baath Party. Can Syria really be different? P.M. Maliki is busy purging the Baghdad government of the last of the US’s “power sharing” elements in order to build loyalty and stability there. A hybrid regime is hard to imagine.

The Syrian army increased its shelling of the suburbs of Damascus, and the provinces of Homs, Daraa and Deir Azzour.

Revolutionaries captured two top-ranking regime officers; Brigadier General Munir Ahmad Shalabi of the General Intelligence Palestine Branch, and Major General Faraj Shihada Maqet.

From Syria Report

• The Syrian President has issued three new decrees to enable his government to fight “terrorism,” including a law that will enable the dismissal of civil servants.
• Syria’s consumer price index rose 32.51 percent in May on an annual basis, although on a monthly basis prices actually declined, the Central Bureau of Statistics said.
• All stocks traded at the Damascus Securities Exchange fell again last week with the total value of shares falling more than 50 percent compared to the previous week.
• A shipment of Iranian fuel reached the Syrian port of Banias at the end of last week, according to local media reports.
• Tourist Arrivals Fell 79% in the Four Months Ending April
• Hotels Statistics in Damascus
  

• 	2009	2010	2011
  Occupancy rates (%)	71	74	21
  Average Room rates (USD)	236	233	168
  REVPAR (USD)	168	172	35

Russians and Syrians, Allied by History and Related by Marriage
Olga Kravets for The New York Times

Roksana Dzhenid lives in Moscow with her Syrian husband, but many wives like her live in Syria.
By ELLEN BARRY, July 1, 2012

MOSCOW — On one jasmine-shaded block in the Syrian port city of Latakia, Natalya lives three doors away from Nina, two from Olga, across a narrow alley from Tatyana, and a short walk from Yelena, Faina and Nadezhda. They are all women from the former Soviet Union who married Syrian men. Pan out to the greater expanse of Syria and the number of Russian wives grows to 20,000, the human legacy of a cold war alliance that, starting in the 1960s, mingled its young elites in Soviet dormitories and classrooms….“They are wives of the elite, who can have some influence, but it’s a soft influence,” said Nina Sergeyeva, who until recently led an organization of Russian expatriates from her home in Latakia. “The elite of Syria, the men, are very oriented toward Russia.”…. “Based on the recent experience of evacuation from Lebanon and Palestine in recent years, problems always arise — though there we weren’t talking about thousands or tens of thousands of people, but several hundred,” said Yelena Suponina, a Moscow political analyst specializing in the Middle East. The task of evacuating Russians from Syria, she said, “would be 100 times worse.”….

Soviet women had their own reasons to pursue Syrians — nondrinkers who, thanks to the Baath Party’s ties to the Communists, traveled freely in and out of the Soviet Union. A new wave of marriages followed the Soviet collapse, as young women sought a way out of economic chaos.

“Let all the world hear this: Russian men, maybe not all of them, but more than half of them are gigolos,” said Roksana Dzhenid, who married Wa’el, a businessman, in 2000, and lives with him in Moscow. He benefited too, she noted, by escaping the intense family ties that come with a Syrian bride.

“If there is a quarrel, what will a Russian woman do? She will cry,” she said. “Maximum, she will go to her friend and say, ‘He is such and such.’ And what will an Arab woman do? She will gather a posse of all her relatives. She may run at night to her husband’s mother and sister and start yelling.”…

Svetlana N. Zaitseva, who spoke by telephone from her home in the Syrian port city of Tartus, was 19 when she met her husband, a linguistics student living in the same dormitory in what was then Leningrad.

She and her friends had only the dimmest idea of what life was like in other countries, she said. In the Soviet Union, “it was like the entire world was our friends, brothers and comrades.” Six months after the two met, she said, “I realized that we loved each other and could not live without one another.”

“From the height of my age, I must say that it’s of course better to marry someone from your own country,” she said.

But that decision is long past for Ms. Zaitseva, 62, a mother of three and grandmother of four. She is clinging to the hope that the conflict will end; but even if it escalates into war, she said, she would still choose to stay in Syria to the end.

“It cannot be otherwise,” she said. “We have become part of this place. Our children are here, who are citizens of Syria, and our grandchildren. Everything here is ours.”

Observer (GB): Syrian regime TV reporter defects
2012-07-02

Ghatan Sleiba, from the pro-Assad al-Dunya channel, says he has been providing intelligence to the rebels for months. A presenter from the Syrian regime’s main television channel has defected to the opposition and revealed he had secretly provided …

THE ARAB SPRING, ITS EFFECTS ON THE KURDS, AND THE APPROACHES OF TURKEY, IRAN, SYRIA, AND IRAQ ON THE KURDISH ISSUE
By Aylin Ünver Noi

This article addresses the approaches of Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Iraq in dealing with the Kurdish issue, with a special focus on historical background. In addition, the article discusses how this issue affects relations among the aforementioned countries and whether cooperation on this issue is possible. The article also examines how the Arab Spring […]

…THE ARAB SPRING, SYRIA, AND THE KURDISH ISSUE

The wave of protests calling for greater freedoms, respect for human rights, and improving living conditions throughout the Arab world reached Syria. Operations such as massive naturalization of undocumented migrants have been organized by granting Syrian citizenship to more than 300,000 Kurds to ease the mass disturbances.[62] Besides this, Syrian Kurdish opposition leader Tammo, leader of the Future Movement, who openly called for the Asad’s overthrow, was assassinated by the Asad regime in October 2011. The day of the funeral, tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Qamishli. It was the largest protest in the northeast since the beginning of the uprisings against the Asad regime.

Some Kurdish groups are wary of joining the Syrian National Council (SNC) due to the SNC’s lack of clear-cut policies regarding the status of the Kurds in a post-Asad era and disputes concerning the number of seats the Kurds would hold in the SNC.[64] For instance, the only Kurdish party that attended the Istanbul meeting of Syrian oppositionists, Tammo’s Future Movement, wanted the name of the country changed from the “Syrian Arab Republic” to the “Republic of Syria.” When the other delegates at the conference refused this request, these Kurds walked out in protest.[65] The Kurds’ concern is that the opposition against the Asad regime is dominated by Islamists, the Muslim Brotherhood, and that they do not support Kurdish demands for local autonomy.[66] Turkey’s active role in Syria’s uprisings also raises concerns with the Kurds. Kurds believe that Turkey would not leave things to take their own course in Syrian Kurdistan if Asad’s regime in the country were to fall.

It has even been observed that some of the KDP and PKK are used by the regime as “al-Shabiha” (pro-Asad regime armed thugs and mobs). The PKK receives further support from the regime.[68] The Asad regime is using the PKK card as leverage against Turks. The PKK has done little to dispel such suspicions, and some statements made by Kurds seem to verify this argument. For instance, in an interview, Cemil Bayik, one of the group’s leaders, warned that if Turkey were to intervene against Assad, the PKK would fight on Syria’s side.[69] The PKK also serves as a means for the Asad regime to keep the Syrian Kurds in check. The PKK’s Syrian branch, the PYD, pulled out of the negotiations with other Kurdish parties. They do not support the protests. Some Kurds have accused the PKK of playing a role in Tammo’s assassination and claim that they warned not to work with the mainstream Arab opposition…..

According to one political analyst, Syria’s regime is not taking action against the PKK due to Turkey’s current anti-Asad position. Furthermore, the Asad regime uses the PKK to control Syria’s Kurds and prevent the Kurds in Syria from taking an active part in the Syrian uprisings. The SNC hopes to win over the Kurds against the Asad regime by changing its former stance on the Kurdish issue. To this end, former SNC President Burhan Ghalioun has promised a decentralized government, which would enable local authorities to take control of their affairs and would allow for national recognition of Kurdish identity in the post-Assad Syria.[79] Moreover, Abdulbaset Sieda, a secular Kurdish academic and politician, succeeded Ghalioun in June 2012 to reconcile rival factions within the SNC…..it thus seems impossible for these four states to maintain collaboration on the PKK issue. However, cooperation in preventing the establishment of an independent Kurdish state does seem feasible and likely to continue.

Tension Rises Along Turkey-Syria Border
By: Patrick J. McDonnell | Los Angeles Times
Turkey said Sunday that it had scrambled fighter jets along its increasingly tense border with Syria after Syrian helicopters were detected close to the two nations’ long frontier.

Authorities said no armed confrontation and no violation of Turkish territory took place, according to Turkish news reports. But the incidents on Saturday underscored how the more than 500-mile border has gone from being a hub of free-flowing commerce to a potential tinderbox for a regional military conflict….

Syria’s paramilitary gangs a law unto themselves

HOMS, Syria (Reuters) – When rifle-toting members of Syria’s shabbiha pro-government paramilitary gangs strut into a shop, cowed residents of Homs know to clear out of their way.

Accused of atrocities that include the massacre last month of scores of women and children – many of whose throats were slit and heads bashed in – the militiamen cut to the front of the queue as shoppers shrink back and staff rush to serve them.

In their informal uniform of camouflage trousers and white sneakers, the young recruits swan down the streets of the Alawite neighborhoods, set up checkpoints at a whim and stop traffic to question drivers.

“We don’t know when they’ll show up and when they’ll disappear,” whispered Abu Tamam, from the Alawite neighborhood of Zahra where hundreds of men have joined shabbiha gangs. “Some of their leaders are the biggest thugs in the neighborhood. Now they’re supposed to be our saviors.”

Lawless groups of shabbiha now style themselves as above the control of the very security forces that created them to support the brutal crackdown on the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad that began in March 2011.

Homs is filled with men like short, fat, balding 40-year-old Louay. He hardly looks like a gang leader. But he is not afraid of force, and he claims he takes orders from no one – not even the government he is fighting to protect.

“If the government can’t end this farce, we will. I have boys who would eat rocks,” he growls. “Enough is enough. The army has been at it for a year and can’t put a stop to this.”

Your Syria Is My Bahrain
By: Mark N. Katz | The Moscow Times

Turkey weighs options for dealing with Syria

ISTANBUL — When Syrian forces shot down a Turkish reconnaissance jet last month, Turkey vowed to take “necessary steps” and its prime minister declared Syria a “clear and present danger.”

Video: Can foreign powers determine Syria’s future?
01 Jul 2012 al-Jazeera (thanks to War in Context)

U.S. must arm Syria rebels despite Islamists: opposition
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis, 01 Jul 2012

Reuters reports: Syria’s opposition says the United States must overcome its fear of Islamists among the rebels fighting to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, and start arming the resistance movement to show it wants the entire ruling elite removed. Islamists are among the most effective fighters against the Syrian leadership, some opposition figures said, and Washington […]

….Opposition campaigners and Free Syrian Army commanders said the rebels need weapons such as shoulder-fired missiles to destroy the tanks and bring down the helicopters that Assad is using against the uprising. Washington could anyway supply parts of the diverse rebel movement which are more to its liking.

“The U.S. has intelligence on the ground and by clever management it can channel weapons to the right people. First it has to give a clear signal that it really wants an end of the Alawite-dominated police state in Syria and not just the sidelining of Bashar,” said Tello, speaking from Istanbul.

World powers struck an agreement on Saturday that a transitional Syrian government should be set up to end the conflict in which more than 10,000 people have died, but they remained at odds over what part Assad might play.

So far the United States has supplied almost negligible amounts of “non-lethal” aid such as walkie-talkie radios trickling across the Lebanese border, opposition figures said. Officials have made clear Washington opposes arming the rebels because they lack a unified command and due to concerns that high-tech weapons may fall into the hands of Islamists.

Mohaimen al-Rumaid, a member of the Syrian Rebel Front, said Washington was failing to recognize that the country’s Islamist rebels were different from the Taliban fighting NATO-led forces in Afghanistan, and that they were not anti-American….

Hamwi said U.S. officials appeared to be collecting intelligence on the rebels without helping them.

“Activists meet with them hoping to get medical supplies and they start asking for information about the Free Syrian Army. The United States seems not to mind Assad inflicting so much bloodshed as he can so the people become utterly exhausted and accept whatever deal Washington wants,” Hamwi said….

Mustafa al-Sheikh, a general in the Free Syrian Army who heads an organization of senior officers who have defected, said Washington could channel weapons “to trusted rebels and help to ensure stability after Assad falls”.

….”The United States, Israel and other world powers have calculated their interest in the region the last five decades based on minority rule in Syria,” said Sheikh who is based at a camp set up by Turkey for defecting officers on the Syrian border.”Washington does not want to risk a Sunni ascendancy by supporting the Syrian revolution, even as Assad continues his bloodbath and gets more support from Iran,” said Sheikh.

Video: Alawite activists flee to Turkey
01 Jul 2012 , aL-Jazeera

Disorganized Like a Fox – Foreign Policy
Why it’s a great thing that the Syrian opposition is fragmented.
By Elizabeth O’Bagy, a research analyst at the Institute for the Study of War and author of the report “Syria’s Political Opposition.”

….By adopting a decentralized leadership system, the Syrian opposition has succeeded in creating the foundations for greater political pluralism. For almost half a century, Syria suffered under the de facto one-party rule of the Baath Party. Ultimately, these organizations may reverse that destructive legacy, becoming fully functional political movements capable of creating the type of multiparty system necessary for a successful democratic transition.

That, of course, is a long way off, and in the meantime the positive influence of these grassroots movements is increasingly under threat. As the uprising drags on, activists have become increasingly desperate to receive direct aid and support. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and global jihadi networks linked to al Qaeda are manipulating this growing desperation, providing material support to those groups that promise to support their foreign agendas

The proliferation of money and weapons may have accelerated the revolution, but it has not supported the development of political structures inside Syria. These foreign sponsors risk dividing and radicalizing the opposition. Rebel leaders have already reported that in some cases, receiving foreign aid comes with implicit conditions, forcing them to act in ways contrary to their desired direction. In a leaked email, rebel commander Abu Majd wrote, “The basis of the crisis in the city [Homs] today is groups receiving uneven amounts of money from direct sources in Saudi Arabia, some of whom are urging the targeting of loyalist neighborhoods and sectarian escalation.” Moreover, in areas where Assad’s crackdown has been harshest, including in the cities of Homs and Rastan, hard-line Salafi groups have gained a foothold within the opposition. In early April, following the regime’s offensive against Homs, for instance, accusations emerged that the rebels’ Farouq Battalion had begun collecting jizya, a tax on non-Muslims, in areas of Homs province.

To reverse this dangerous trend, the United States should take the lead in coordinating international support with the aim of reinforcing the grassroots political structures already operating inside Syria. U.S. intelligence officials have acknowledged that they are vetting the flow of weapons to Syrian rebels to ensure they do not fall into the hands of al Qaeda militants. This policy is a step forward, but it comes with risks. Facilitating weapon transfers to certain groups could empower militias at the expense of the grassroots political opposition. One key condition for future arms transfers should be that groups receiving weapons agree to submit to civilian command structures.

The Syrian grassroots opposition has protested and fought the Assad regime for more than a year now, largely without tangible support from abroad. In areas that have effectively fallen from Assad’s control, these local and provincial committees have already become the de facto government. These committee leaders could very well be Syria’s future power brokers, and U.S. officials must get to know them now. If U.S. officials do not, they may find this promising new generation of Syrian leaders destroyed by both the Assad regime and radical Islamist movements, who will only carry Syria into a bloody and catastrophic civil war.

What Came out of the UN Conference on Syria?
by Joshua Landis
for Syria Comment, July 1, 2012

The operative sentence by Clinton is: it is now “incumbent on Russia and China to show Assad the writing on the wall and help force his departure.”

This plan for a “transition government” in Syria does not add much to previous plans. But it is an indication that Russia’s patience with Assad will not be unlimited. Clinton has advance the ball ever so slightly, convincing Russia to box Assad in just a little more. With each step, Assad must know that his time to suppress the revolt is limited. Russia is indicating to him that it is not an endless source of support. Assad must deliver.

For the US, this plan does several things. It is not merely designed to shift blame for inaction on Syria from Washington to Moscow – but of course it does do that. It puts the ball in Russia’s court to deliver a transition government. Of course, the opposition has refused to join such a government so long as the Assads remain in power, which makes the blame game a bit messy. This is why Clinton is talking chapter 7 again. She wants to give teeth to need for a transition government, but Russia will not agree to that.

It is good for the US because Washington gains time, which is of the essence. The Syrian opposition is not ready to take over Syria. It needs time to coalesce and mature. A new leadership and civil society is emerging in Syria under the nose of the Assad government, but it is months if not years away from being able to rule Syria effectively. Nation building is an organic process.Washington has discovered that it cannot command cooperation and unity.

If Washington learned anything from Iraq and Libya it is that decapitating an oppressive regime too soon is bad. More people get killed. The death rate goes up and not down. An alternative leadership must be prepared to assume authority. Most importantly, an alternative army needs to be assembled to take control and impose order – an army that is viewed as legitimate and representative by a large proportion of society. No such force existed in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya.

Today, we are seeing  the emergence of an alternative source of authority and security in Syria — perhaps. And that is a big “perhaps.” We are not sure that Syria will end up with a unified leadership or that one militia will emerge victorious and supreme. The political factions and one hundred-plus militias that now pepper the Syrian landscape are certainly not capable of imposing order or providing security for Syrians should the Baathist regime crumble or be destroyed.

Will they unite and produce a national leadership in time? It is a reasonable hope. The chances will be much improved if Western powers, Turkey and Saudi Arabia agree on a common leadership.  The beauty contest that is now going on among the Syrian opposition forces is natural and healthy.  A brutal Darwinian battle is now being waged in Syria not only between the regime and the Free Syrian Army, but also between the multitude of militias that make up the FSA. The leaders who can deliver will rise to the top; those that make mistakes are unlikely to survive. The  militias that are better led and can cooperate effectively with the revolutionary councils will rise to the top, pulling the smaller brigades into their ranks. This process of nation building takes time. It is an organic process that cannot be rushed. The West must play for time as the Syrian opposition matures. To destroy the regime before Syrian society is ready to produce an alternative state and leadership is irresponsible. It will not save lives; it will not prevent Islamizaton; it will not serve Western interests; and it will certainly not serve Syrian interests.

Syria Conference Leaves Open Assad Question
AP – By JOHN HEILPRIN and MATTHEW LEE

An international conference on Saturday accepted a U.N.-brokered peace plan that calls for the creation of a transitional government in Syria, but at Russia’s insistence the compromise agreement left the door open to Syria’s president being part of it.

The U.S. backed away from insisting that the plan should explicitly call for President Bashar Assad to have no role in a new Syrian government, hoping the concession would encourage Russia to put greater pressure on its longtime ally to end the violent crackdown that the opposition says has claimed more than 14,000 lives.

But even with Russia’s most explicit statement of support yet for a political transition in Syria, it is far from certain that the plan will have any real effect in curbing the violence. A key phrase in the agreement requires that the transitional governing body “shall be formed on the basis of mutual consent,” effectively giving the present government and the opposition veto power over each other.

Syrian opposition figures immediately rejected any notion of sharing in a transition with Assad, though the agreement also requires security force chiefs and services to have the confidence of the people. Assad’s government had no immediate reaction, but he has repeatedly said his government has a responsibility to eliminate terrorists and will not accept any non-Syrian model of governance.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton insisted on Saturday that Assad would still have to go, saying it is now “incumbent on Russia and China to show Assad the writing on the wall” and help force his departure.”

“There is a credible alternative to the Assad regime,” she said. “What we have done here is to strip away the fiction that he and those with blood on their hands can stay in power.”

Kofi Annan was appointed the special envoy in February, and in March he submitted a six-point peace plan that he said the Assad regime accepted. It led to the April 12 cease-fire agreement that failed to hold.

Moscow had refused to back a provision that would call for Assad to step aside, insisting that outsiders cannot order a political solution for Syria and accusing the West of ignoring the darker side of the Syrian opposition. The opposition has made clear it would not take part in a government in which Assad still held power.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov underlined that the plan does not require Assad’s ouster, saying there is “no attempt in the document to impose on the Syrian people any type of transitional process.”

Lavrov accused armed opposition groups in Syria of provoking the government to use force disproportionately. “We cannot say that the regime should simply withdraw its heavy artillery that it is shooting at armed citizens,” he said, referring to one of the conditions that the U.N. had set for sending truce monitors to Syria. “Certain armed groups and those who sponsor them are always trying to provoke the spiraling violence.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi called for all sides to end to the violence “without attaching any conditions,” but said that no one from the outside can make any legitimate decisions for the Syrian people.

More than a year into the uprising, Syria’s opposition is still struggling to overcome infighting and inexperience, preventing the movement from gaining the traction it needs to instill confidence in its ability to govern.

The U.N. plan calls for establishing a transitional government of national unity, with full executive powers, that could include members of Assad’s government and the opposition and other groups. It would oversee the drafting of a new constitution and elections.

Annan said following the Geneva talks that “it is for the people of Syria to come to a political agreement.”

“I will doubt that the Syrians who have fought so hard to have independence … will select people with blood on their hands to lead them,” he said.

The envoy had earlier warned the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — that if they fail to act at the talks hosted by the United Nations at its European headquarters in Geneva, they face an international crisis of “grave severity” that could spark violence across the region and provide a new front for terrorism.

“History is a somber judge and it will judge us all harshly, if we prove incapable of taking the right path today,” he said.

Syria, verging on a full-blown civil war, has endured a particularly bloody week, with up to 125 people reported killed nationwide on Thursday alone.

The opposition’s divisions are tied to issues at the heart of the revolution: Whether to seek dialogue with the regime and what ideology should guide a post-Assad Syria.

Rami Abdul-Rahman, director of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said following the agreement that “no member of the Syrian opposition will accept to be part of a transitional government while Assad is still in power.”

“Assad’s staying in power will mean the continuation of the bloodshed in Syria,” he said.

Unlike Libya’s National Transitional Council, which brought together most factions fighting Moammar Gadhafi’s regime and was quickly recognized by much of the international community, Syria’s opposition has no leadership on the ground.

Regime opponents in Syria are a diverse group, representing the country’s ideological, sectarian and generational divide. They include dissidents who spent years in prison, tech-savvy activists in their 20s, former Marxists, Islamists and Paris-based intellectuals.

Communication among those abroad and those in the country is extremely difficult. Political activists in Syria are routinely rounded up and imprisoned. Many have gone into hiding, communicating only through Skype using fake names, and the country is largely sealed off to exiled dissidents and foreign journalists.

International tensions also heightened last week after Syria shot down a Turkish warplane, leading to Turkey setting up anti-aircraft guns on its border with its neighbor.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague noted on Saturday that U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told diplomats a U.N. monitoring mission in Syria would have to be pulled back if no diplomatic solution was found.

The head of the struggling U.N. observer mission, Norwegian Maj. Gen. Robert Mood, has described the 300 monitors approved by the U.N. Security Council to enforce a failed April cease-fire as being largely confined to bureaucratic tasks and calling Syrians by phone because of the dangers on the ground. Their mandate expires on July 20.

“Ultimately, we want to stop the bloodshed in Syria. If that comes through political dialogue, we are willing to do that,” said Khalid Saleh, a spokesman for the Syrian National Council, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups based in Istanbul, Turkey. “We are not willing to negotiate (with) Mr. Assad and those who have murdered Syrians. We are not going to negotiate unless they leave Syria.”

Clinton said Thursday in Riga, Latvia, that all participants in the Geneva meeting, including Russia, were on board with the transition plan. She told reporters that the invitations made clear that representatives “were coming on the basis of (Annan’s) transition plan.”

The United Nations says violence in the country has worsened since a cease-fire deal in April, and the bloodshed appears to be taking on dangerous sectarian overtones, with growing numbers of Syrians targeted on account of their religion. The increasing militarization of both sides in the conflict has Syria heading toward civil war.

Syria’s widows: Hungry and homeless, but undefeated, Friday 29 June 2012
By Tara Sutton, Mafraq

Tens of thousands of desperate refugees have poured into Jordan. Here, some of them tell the stories of how their lives were shattered by the fighting that has torn their homeland apart

Tens of thousands of desperate refugees have poured into Jordan. Here, some of them tell the stories of how their lives were shattered by the fighting that has torn their homeland apart

The Homs widows must take care that they cannot be easily identified. Their names have been changed for this piece. Photograph: Tara Sutton for the Guardian

With criminals and rebels helping them on their way, Syria’s army of refugees marches by night, in single file and silence, towards the Jordanian border. More than 140,000 desperate people, many of them women and children, have sought sanctuary from their neighbour since the uprising in their homeland began 13 months ago and most now face an uncertain future.

Unlike Turkey, Jordan does not have a refugee camp and new arrivals are left to fend for themselves. They escape mostly “through the fence”, too frightened to leave Syria by its official borders. For some this is because their documents were burned when the army torched their homes; for others it is because they are being hunted by the government because someone in their family is, or was, a fighter.

In Jordan most of the aid they receive comes from Islamic and Christian charities with limited resources. They get boxes of food from one group; another donates mattresses and kitchen sets. But it is not enough, and many wonder where the international NGOs are.

“They [the international aid agencies] have a lot of meetings,” said the head of one charity well known to many refugees. “But I don’t see anything on the ground. There is all this talking, and still the Syrians need beds and food and stoves.” Many live in buildings that were formerly abandoned and lack basic necessities such as water and ventilation. Some of the poorest families are living in tents made from old jute sacks.

The border town of Mafraq in Jordan now hosts 10,000 Syrian refugees,

Annan ‘Hopeful’ Over Geneva Talks on Syria
By: Ellen Barry, Nick Cumming-Bruce and Rick Gladstone | The New York Times

“I think we are going to have a good meeting” on Saturday, Mr. Annan told Reuters television in Geneva as senior officials held preparatory talks in advance of the weekend encounter of foreign ministers, including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. “I am optimistic.”

The talks would end “with an acceptable result,” he said, despite news reports suggesting that differences between Russia and other Western and Arab nations at the Geneva meeting had raised new obstacles to an agreement.

Mrs. Clinton is set to meet on Friday in St. Petersburg, Russia, with her Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov, The Associated Press reported. Mr. Lavrov said on Thursday that Syria needed a period of political transition but reiterated Moscow’s resistance to any plan being imposed by the international community.

“In order to overcome the Syrian crisis and to finally establish stable rights and norms which satisfy all groups in the Syrian population, it is necessary to have a transitional period, this is obvious,” Mr. Lavrov said at a news conference here in Moscow.

Turkey’s deputy prime minister, Bulent Arinc, acknowledged on Monday that the aircraft — a two-seat RF-4E Phantom, an unarmed reconnaissance version of the F-4 fighter jet — was equipped for surveillance. But he strongly denied it was doing reconnaissance on this particular mission.

Forging a Peace Plan for Syria
By: Kofi A. Annan | The Washington Post

…..But something more is essential. I expect all who attend Saturday’s meeting to agree that a Syrian-led transition process must be achieved in accordance with clear principles and guidelines.

There must be a democratic and pluralistic future for Syria that complies with international standards on human rights and protects the rights of all communities.

This must include a government of national unity that would exercise full executive powers. This government could include members of the present government and the opposition and other groups, but those whose continued presence and participation would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation would be excluded.

The transition would also include a meaningful national dialogue and a constitutional revision subject to popular approval, followed by free and fair multiparty elections. Stability and calm must be ensured throughout by functioning institutions and protection of all groups within Syria’s diverse society. There must be a commitment to accountability and to national reconciliation.

There is no substitute for the hard work of helping the Syrians forge their own political future, in full respect of Syria’s sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity. …

Western Agreement ‘Could Leave Syria in Assad’s Hands for Two More Years’
By: Robert Fisk | The Independent

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria may last far longer than his opponents believe – and with the tacit acceptance of Western leaders anxious to secure new oil routes to Europe via Syria before the fall of the regime. According to a source intimately involved in the possible transition from Baath party power, the Americans, Russians and Europeans are also putting together an agreement that would permit Assad to remain leader of Syria for at least another two years in return for political concessions to Iran and Saudi Arabia in both Lebanon and Iraq.

For its part, Russia would be assured of its continued military base at Tartous in Syria and a relationship with whatever government in Damascus eventually emerges with the support of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Russia’s recent concession – that Assad may not be essential in any future Syrian power structure – is part of a new understanding in the West which may accept Assad’s presidency in return for an agreement that prevents a further decline into civil war.

Information from Syria suggests that Assad’s army is now “taking a beating” from armed rebels, who include Islamist as well as nationalist forces; at least 6,000 soldiers are now believed to have been murdered or killed in action since the rebellion against Assad began 17 months ago. There are even unconfirmed reports that during any one week up to a thousand Syrian fighters are under training by mercenaries in Jordan at a base used by Western authorities for personnel seeking ‘anti-terrorist’ security exercises.

Syria is not Libya: it will not implode, it will explode beyond its borders
28 June 2012, By Phyllis Bennis

Probably the only useful thing outside powers can do, would be to engage in serious new diplomacy, in which supporters of both the regime and the armed opposition participate….

Iran’s role is the single most important basis for US and other western interest in Syria, making that emerging proxy war even more dangerous. At this moment of continuing US pressure, increasing US and EU sanctions, and Israeli threats against Iran, Syria remains a tempting proxy target…..

There is a crucial divergence between the role the Assad regime has played domestically and its regional position. As Jadaliyyaco-editor Bassam Haddadhas written, “most people in the region are opposed to the Syrian regime’s domestic behavior during the past decades, but they are not opposed to its regional role. The problem is the Syrian regime’s internal repression, not its external policies.” That opinion could describe the view of many Syrians as well….

Of course even if Assad had played a consistent anti-imperialist role in the region, Syrians would have every right and reason to challenge his regime’s brutality and denial of human rights. But the claim led some international activists to lionize the Syrian government as a bastion of anti-imperialism and therefore to condemn all opposition forces as lackeys of Washington.

In fact the regime’s reality is far different….

Withholding Favours: EU Tries To Change Iraq’s Mind on Syria Niqash

Visiting EU foreign ministers recently put pressure on Iraq with regard to the official position on Syria. But what does the EU really want the Iraqis to do? And what will they do if Iraq doesn’t agree? By Haider Najm / Baghdad
“Le Hezbollah va-t-il se tenir à l’écart du brasier syrien?” by Wassim Nasr

In a Syrian souk, support for the regime falters
Posted: 28 Jun 2012 08:20 AM PDT
Deborah Amos reports: In Syria’s capital, Damascus, the Hamidiyah souk is a landmark — a centuries-old covered market linked to a maze of alleyways in the heart of the capital. Over the 15-month uprising, Syria’s merchants have supported the regime of President Bashar Assad. But that support is crumbling. Shops selling everything from cold drinks, […]

Hamas says member killed in Damascus home
Posted: 28 Jun 2012 08:30 AM PDT
Reuters reports: Hamas said on Thursday that one of its members, Kamal Husni Ghanaja, had been killed in his home in Damascus and that it was trying to find who was behind what the Palestinian Islamist group described as a “cowardly murder”. Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, said in a statement that it was […]

Can the U.S. and Russia agree on how to end Syria’s war?
Posted: 28 Jun 2012 08:40 AM PDT
Tony Karon writes: Beleaguered U.N. peace envoy Kofi Annan will host an international conference to address Syria‘s rapidly escalating civil war, but the meeting in Geneva on Saturday appears to have only lukewarm backing from the U.S. — and then only after Washington put the kibosh on the attendance of Iran, whose participation had been […]

Hillary Clinton says that Russia is ready to turn on Assad in what is a potential “turning point” in the conflict. This is the third or fourth time she has insisted that Russia is prepared to discuss a post-Assad Syria and the modalities of regime-change. In the past, these announcements have been premature and designed to shame the Russians into dumping Damascus. Will this time be different? Has Russia concluded that Assad is losing it? Addendum: Since writing this Russia has responded that it rejects an ‘external solution’ for Syria and that Syrians should decide the fate of President Bashar al-Assad.

Syrian authorities continue to insist that they will never turn the country over to the Muslim Brotherhood or form a coalition government with rebels. They are ready to fight to the end to save the country from Islamists – at least that is what they are saying to friends. They seem undaunted by Russian posturing. This all means that we are unlikely to see any big breakthroughs anytime soon. Russian authorities must be getting nervous about Assad’s strategy and staying power – all the same what can they do but try to create avenues for a Syrian soft landing? Damascus is unlikely to take their nudging seriously for some time. The high-powered conference is probably meaningless at this point, as Russia will most likely continue to insist on “loyal opposition” joining in a transitional government packed with Assad loyalists – a non-starter for both Assad and opposition figures.

China has also agreed to encourage the formation of a “transitional government” in a June 30 meeting of World leaders. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have been excluded from the meeting. This change of strategy among Syria’s allies takes place as frequent bombings and opposition attacks have rocked downtown Damascus, forcing President Assad to announce that Syria has entered into a “real state of war.”

“Not one drop of petrol” has been available in Aleppo for a week now, friends lament. Media sources report that three Iranian gas carriers have sailed to Syria with gas shipments, but that will be a drop in the bucket. All the taxi services have come to a stand-still in Aleppo. Friends say they are willing to pay ten-times the amount of a liter of gas for their car but there just isn’t any. They are stranded in the homes. Those who have moved out to villas in the suburbs are really at a loss because they cannot walk down town or to go shopping. A blue bottle of cooking gas in Damascus goes for 4,000 pounds or about 50 dollars.It is only a matter of time before electricity stops all together and food becomes scarce. Transportation will be disrupted and supplies irregular around the country.

The economic situation in Syria continues to deteriorate as Syrians close to Assad recognize that he is incapable of managing or finding a way out the crises.

The problem is in the details. No one can imagine how a transition would work

Smokes rises after an explosion was heard near the Palace of Justice in central Damascus June 28, 2012

Russia Said to Endorse Replacing Assad in Turn Away From Ally
Flavia Krause-Jackson and Indira A.R. Lakshmanan, ©2012 Bloomberg News, June 28, 2012

June 28 (Bloomberg) — Russia has endorsed a detailed United Nations road map for a political transition in Syria, a sign that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost the support of a key ally, according to three United Nations diplomats.

Persuading Assad to step aside and forming a transitional government to pave the way for elections will be at the core of a June 30 conference of top diplomats organized by Kofi Annan, the UN’s special envoy on Syria, the officials said. All three asked not to be identified because the talks are private.

The foreign ministers of the five permanent UN Security Council members — China, France, Russia, the U.K., and the U.S. — as well as Turkey, Qatar and Iraq will attend the meeting in Geneva.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday called the conference a potential “turning point” in the conflict that already has claimed more than 10,000 lives.

Annan earlier this week gave the parties to the talks a few days to respond to a set of recommendations entitled “On Guidelines and Principles of a Syrian-led transition.” By late on June 26, the Russians had accepted the paper in full, including language that spells out Assad’s departure, according to the three officials, who all were informed of the decision.

The Annan document, which was reviewed by Bloomberg News, says a transitional government may include members of Assad’s government and opposition and other groups, although not “those whose continued presence and participation would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation.”

Veto Power

According to a U.S. official, who was briefed on Annan’s plan, representatives of both the regime and the opposition could veto proposed members of a national unity government. He asked not to be identified in order to discuss the negotiations.

The latest effort to end the 16-month battle between the Alawite-dominated Assad regime and a largely Sunni Muslim uprising comes as Assad said his country is in a state of war. It also follows the Syrian downing of a Turkish military jet and an attack yesterday on Syria’s pro-government television station that killed seven journalists.

Russia has realized that Assad is losing the battle to preserve his grip on power, the UN officials said, and now the government of President Vladimir Putin is seeking a leading role in paving a smooth exit for a longtime Soviet and Russian client and arms customer.

“When Assad went into total war footing, he lost the Russians,” said George Lopez, a former UN sanctions investigator who’s now at the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana.

Iran Out

The Obama administration rejected Russia’s and Annan’s attempt to include Iran in the Geneva talks, and Russia in turn insisted that Saudi Arabia be excluded because the Sunni kingdom has funneled support to the Syrian opposition.

“If other countries don’t want the benefits of Iran’s cooperation, it is up to them,” Iran’s UN Ambassador Mohammed Khazaee told reporters in New York yesterday.

Aware of Putin’s sensitivity on the question of regime change in Syria, the U.S. accepted Russia’s demand that some Assad loyalists must be part of an interim government, according to two of the UN diplomats.

The UN officials also said that all the parties to the talks, as well as other nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, are in rare agreement that action is needed to prevent radical Sunni Islamists from filling a power vacuum in Syria.

Civil War

“We have made it clear to the Russians that the outcome they are most concerned about, which would be a sectarian civil war, is made more likely, not less likely, by the international community’s failure to take a strong position vis-a-vis the Assad regime,” Clinton said yesterday in Helsinki.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a former UN ambassador, will outline his country’s position in a news conference today in Moscow.

Landis answers questions on the Turkish issue:

1. Question: “Will the jet dispute change Turkey’s policy on Syria? Why? What is the primary concern for Turkey on Syria crisis?”

Turkey and Syria are in an undeclared state of war. Turkey is taking charge of the Western and Gulf led effort to carry out regime-change in Syria and strengthen the Syrian opposition.

In all likelihood, Turkey has been probing Syrian airspace for some time. Syria was undoubtedly trying to put a limit to Turkish aggressiveness and show that it has some defensive capability.

Turkey has smartly escalated and shown its own teeth and that it will not be intimidated or deterred by Syria.

2. Turkey is one of the most important mediators between Syria and West. Why will Syria attack the Turkish jet? Did it mean Syria has already lost the patience because Turkey hosts its opposition?

Syria no longer believes that Turkey is a mediator, but a combatant.

3. Many people thought the jet dispute will trigger NATO’s military move to Syria. But after a meet, NATO showed its caution on military intervention. In your opinion, what are NATO’s major concerns now? What will be the decisive factors on NATO decision making process?

Nato and the West believe that the Syrian insurgency is getting stronger and more capable by the month. They do not want to intervene directly and believe that they can change the balance of power in Syria and ultimately win by arming and training the opposition. For the West, the situation is Syria is moving in the right direction. Assad has announced that Syria is in a “real state of war” for the first time. He is beginning to understand what a predicament he is in. The chances of his being able to beat this are diminishing every day. Even he has begun to recognize this.

Blasts erupt near Syrian Justice Ministry

(CNN) — A day after attackers bombed a pro-government TV station, massive explosions shook the heart of Damascus near the Justice Ministry, the state-run media said.

Two blasts occurred in a parking lot Thursday outside the Palace of Justice, which houses the ministry, Syrian state TV said. The Local Coordination Committees of Syria confirmed the blast and said it occurred in the Marja neighborhood of central Damascus.

At least three people were injured and 20 cars were damaged, state TV said.

On Wednesday, bombers killed at least seven people in the headquarters of al-Ikhbaria, near Damascus, killing three journalists and four security guards, the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency reported. The attackers also ransacked and destroyed studios, the news outlet said.

There have been a flurry of attacks in Syria’s major cities of Damascus and Aleppo in recent months, strikes that President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has blamed on terrorists. Opposition groups have said the government itself has been behind such attacks to discredit the anti-regime forces.

In other provinces on Thursday, at least 50 people were killed, the LCC said. They include 22 in the Damascus suburbs and 11 people in Deir Ezzor.

opposition fighters attacked the headquarters of the pro-Assad television channel al-Ikhbariya outside Damascus — as violence once again engulfs the capital. The Syrian Arab News Agency has published images from the attack, which the state-run news outlet says killed several people and destroyed the station’s offices.

The Civil War in the Syrian Opposition: How Long Can the Free Syrian Army Hold Off Its Islamist Rivals?
Tyler Golson in the New Republic

If you want to know where the fourteen month-old Syrian revolution against President Bashar al-Assad is headed, the case of Walid al-Boustani provides a useful rubric. Al-Boustani led an ill-fated “Islamic Emirate of Homs” that lasted only a few weeks. Apparently the locals did not appreciate having an “Emir” who kidnapped and murdered their people while claiming to wage jihad against the regime of Bashar al-Assad. And so in March 2012 a local brigade of the Free Syrian Army executed the Lebanese-born al-Boustani, amidst accusations that the jihadist was not only a traitor to the Syrian revolution but also, in fact, an agent of the Syrian regime.

The incident is part of a larger clash that has mostly gone overlooked in the Western media—namely, the struggle between Syria’s two main armed opposition groups, groups that represent two radically different visions for Syria’s future. In that way, it’s not enough to simply know—as a recent article in the New York Times pointed out—that Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with assistance from the CIA, are funneling arms and cash to certain Syrian rebel groups via intermediaries in Turkey. It’s also important to know that the other rebel groups—those with an Islamist political agenda—that the United States and its allies have decided not to support are distrusted by the Syrian people themselves. Indeed, Washington’s largely hands-off approach to the Syria crisis has so far been greatly assisted by the Syrian public’s broad rejection of the hardcore Islamist rebels. But there’s no telling how much longer America’s strategic interests and the Syrian people’s sympathies will remain in sync.

THE FACTION OF the Syrian opposition that has been the main recipient of foreign arms is the Free Syrian Army (FSA), an umbrella organization headquartered in Turkey and encompassing upwards of a hundred semi-autonomous battalions of defected Syrian soldiers and armed civilians. Though many individual units and fighters loyal to the FSA adopt a conservative Islamic idiom and may express their struggle as “jihad,” the FSA central leadership espouses pluralist, nationalist, and even democratic ideals, reflecting its broad base of support in Syria, as well as the influence of its international sponsors.

The second group (broadly construed) vying for primacy of the Syrian armed opposition is the constellation of independent, hardcore Islamist “kata’ib” (brigades) claiming to wage violent jihad against the infidel Assad regime and its Shia backers, Iran and Hezbollah. The independent jihadist opposition draws from an expanding domestic pool of young men who feel abandoned by the international community and emboldened by the popularity of their radical Islamist cause beyond Syria’s borders and over social media.

The good news is that, Syrians mostly distrust the hardcore Islamists. While much of the public is liable to celebrate any attack against government forces, they remain deeply suspicious of the numerous, independent jihadist groups taking root throughout the country. A public opinion survey conducted by the US Institute of Peace in September 2011 found that only 35 percent of Syrians see religion as an important issue in the anti-government demonstrations, with less than 14 percent preferring religious leaders or parties to lead a post-Assad Syria as compared to 66 percent who viewed “democratically-elected leaders” as the most qualified.

Compounding Syrians’ ideological unease with jihadists is the widespread concern that Islamist groups have either been infiltrated by, or are directly working for the Syrian regime. Western media mostly overlooked the story of Walid al-Boustani, the would-be Emir of Homs, but the video of Boustani’s “trial” and execution by the FSA stirred considerable speculation among Arab audiences, who focused not on Boustani’s specific crimes but rather on his ties to a discredited Al-Qaeda-linked terrorist group back in Lebanon, Fatah al-Islam, which is widely believed to be a tool of Syrian intelligence.

It is well-established that the Syrian government in the past facilitated the transit of fighters to Al-Qaeda in Iraq through Syria in order to fight American coalition forces—and some of these battle-hardened jihadists have likely come back to Syria. But the Assad regime’s understanding with Islamic extremists has always been to allow them to attack their common enemy as long as they did not operate within Syria itself…..

Assad Foreign Policy (II): Strategies of Confrontation
By: Amal Saad-Ghorayeb,  June 27, 2012 – al-Akhbar

Amal Saad-Ghorayeb places Assad foreign policy in context, particularly – “Syria’s intervention on behalf of right-wing Christian militias in Lebanon in 1976; its war against Palestinian groups in Lebanon in the 1980s; its decision to join the Gulf War coalition against Saddam Hussein in 1991; its reluctance to engage Israel militarily; and its participation in so-called peace negotiations with Israel since 1991.”