Syria has announced that it is sending its Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal Mekdad to Annapolis. Foreign Minister Moualem is not going. Does this mean that the Golan Heights will officially be included on the agenda as Syria insisted or, as Burns said, "no one will turn off the microphones if Syria brings up the Golan"? Probably somewhere in between.

Here is Ehsani's comment: November 25th, 2007, 1:35 pm

Syria has confirmed that its deputy foreign Minister will attend the conference as the above article claimed would happen.

Slowly but steadily the White House is changing its Syria policy. The tide is turning in the direction of the Damascus leadership.

Interestingly, the Iranian President just stated the following:

“Participation in this summit is an indication of a lack of intelligence of some so-called politicians…I am sorry that some people around us plan to participate in the conference which only helps to support the Zionist occupiers”.

The title of the above article [“At Mideast Talks, U.S. and Israel Seek to Isolate Iran by Wooing Syria,”] seems rather relevant now.

Syria to attend peace conference
BBC: 2007/11/25

Syria has announced it will attend the forthcoming Middle-East peace conference in the US city of Annapolis.

Deputy Foreign Minister Fayssal Mekdad is due to lead the Syrian team at the conference, which begins on Tuesday.

Syria decided to take part after learning that Israeli-Syrian peace moves on the Golan Heights would be discussed, Reuters news agency said.

Damascus had previously said it would not attend the conference unless the Golan Heights were on the agenda.

The meeting is aimed at launching talks for peace between Israel and the Palestinians and for the creation of a Palestinian state.

In another boost to organisers, Saudi Arabia also announced on Friday that it would attend.

At Mideast Talks, U.S. and Israel Seek to Isolate Iran by Wooing Syria
By CAM SIMPSON and JAY SOLOMON
November 24, 2007; Page A1

The Bush administration for years rejected the notion that progress towards Arab-Israeli peace could ease its wider woes in the Middle East. Next week, President Bush kicks off talks with just such an aim.

The stated goal of Mr. Bush's first serious stab at Middle East peacemaking is to revive negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians to end the region's most enduring conflict. But administration officials hope progress in talks scheduled to begin Tuesday in Annapolis, Md., also curries favor with skeptical Sunni Arab leaders, whom the U.S. needs to check Iran's growing regional clout.

Underscoring that effort, the Bush administration is even courting a long-time pariah, Syria. Syria's bitter enemy, Israel, is going even further, indicating that its arms are open wide to Damascus. Talks with Syria could go some way in weakening Tehran's strongest alliance in the region.

MORE

Read more about what different countries have to win or lose in the Annapolis talks and which major players will be in attendance.

"This is one of those moments in history where the Syrians have been given an opportunity to jump," a senior Israeli official said this past week. "If they do jump, they will be embraced."

On Friday, Syrian officials suggested they would attend, possibly at the level of Damascus's foreign minister, Walid Moallem. They said the Arab League had sent word to Washington that they wanted the issue of Syria's dispute with Israel over the Golan Heights region directly addressed in Annapolis, and that they were receiving positive responses.

The stakes are high for Mr. Bush, who has invited representatives from more than four dozen governments and organizations to participate. With a war in Iraq that has badly damaged U.S. prestige and seems certain to outlast Mr. Bush's term in office, the administration increasingly sought another, less tarnished, Middle East legacy — even at the risk of reversing itself and alienating some conservatives.

"The point is that right now we've invested the Secretary of State's time in something I don't think is central to our interests," said David Wurmser, who until earlier this year served as Vice President Dick Cheney's chief Middle East advisor, at a Washington conference Tuesday. "We need to change the subject into something that we can handle and we can defeat Iran with."

The last serious effort at reaching a permanent accord came under President Clinton, who, with only about six months left in his presidency, tried to broker a deal at Camp David. The violence that began amid the failure of those talks has tempered ambitions since. But analysts note the current round of bargaining between the two sides includes an important feature Mr. Clinton's effort lacked: face-to-face meetings between the opposing leaders.

Saudi Arabia also will be closely watched in Annapolis. It signaled Friday it would send its foreign minister, Saud al Faisal, to the talks. Such a high-level of representation would mark a watershed in Saudi Arabia's posture toward Israel, though the Saudis remain deeply skeptical of the U.S. and Israeli commitment to peace.

At the effort's core, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas haven't yet agreed on a shared statement about which issues they are trying to settle, with only days remaining. But Washington, Israel and the Palestinians share a fresh incentive for progress: the rising power of the Islamist group Hamas and its main backer, Iran.

The Islamist movement won Palestinian parliamentary elections last year, then violently overran the Gaza Strip in June. That threatens Mr. Abbas and his western-leaning Fatah movement, which are fighting to hold on to political power in the West Bank. The Gaza rout raised fresh alarms among Israelis about the rise of Iranian-backed groups on its borders. Israelis also worry about Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed group consolidating political power to the north in Lebanon after an inconclusive summer war with the guerrilla group last year that Israelis viewed as disastrous for their deterrence.

Many difficult issues remain. For Israelis, the thorniest is dividing Jerusalem, which both sides consider to be their capital, and control over its holy sites. Palestinians are most focused on the status of refugees from 1948 and their descendants, whose "right of return" to Israel has been a staple of Palestinian nationalist rhetoric for six decades. The borders of a future Palestinian state, along with sharing water, also will be at the center of any resolution.

Analysts say the difficulties of producing a substantive joint declaration demonstrate the need for the U.S., especially Mr. Bush, to exert a significant amount of commitment. "He is going to have to get personally involved and personally invested in ways that he's been reluctant to do thus far," says Bruce Riedel, who wrote the 2001 speech in which Mr. Bush declared support for a Palestinian state. Mr. Riedel, a Middle East adviser to several presidents and former Central Intelligence Agency official in the region, says Arab leaders "will need to hear real progress" from Mr. Bush himself.

Skepticism in the Arab world was hammered home Friday at an Arab League meeting in Cairo. Mr. al Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, indicated his kingdom was cautious until the Cairo confab. "If it weren't for the Arab consensus to go to the meeting, we wouldn't have gone," he told reporters.

The linchpin of the regional strategy may be its weakest point. Both Israeli and Palestinian leaders face challenges at home that could interfere with their ability to make any real progress. For one, it's unclear how much of Palestinian society Mr. Abbas really represents. His Fatah movement lost elections to Hamas last year, before losing Gaza this summer. Hamas representatives haven't been invited and remain cast in international isolation.

Mr. Olmert, meanwhile, faces low public-approval numbers and a coalition government that depends upon far-right parties that threaten to bring him down if he even discusses some key issues, such as control of Jerusalem.

The invitation to Syria is the latest move in a debate between the U.S. and Israel. The White House has long viewed Syria as a principal impediment to stability and peace, due to its support of extremist groups operating in the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Iraq.

Distrust in some Washington quarters toward Syrian President Bashar Assad has grown in recent weeks, following a September Israeli missile strike inside Syria. U.S. officials say the Israeli air force destroyed a nascent Syrian nuclear reactor located along the Euphrates River, a charge Damascus denies. That follows what has been a harder recent line from the White House, which has sought to pressure Syria from supporting such groups as Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as facilitating the travel of foreign fighters into Iraq. The administration also has pushed a United Nations-led investigation into the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a crime initial U.N. reports have tied to the Syrian government.

But there are growing signs the White House may be moving to do something it's uniformly dismissed in the past: facilitate direct negotiations between Israel and Syria over the disputed Golan Heights. In recent days, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other senior officials have said the U.S. wouldn't object to Syria's raising Golan at Annapolis.

Meanwhile, Israel has pursued a peace dialogue with Damascus, eager to calm tensions on its northeastern border and quash strong Syrian support for Palestinian extremist groups. Mr. Olmert has used Turkish intermediaries to explore options with the Syrians, according to Israeli officials. Retired Israeli diplomats also have held unofficial talks with a confidante of Mr. Assad's over the past few years in an effort to find a formula to solve the Golan dispute.

Many Israeli officials say Washington and Jerusalem should seek to wean Syria away from its growing alliance with Iran. They see the U.S.'s punitive actions against Damascus as driving President Assad further into the Iranian camp.

"Maybe it's time to employ the carrot to remove [Syria] from the axis of evil," the deputy chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, said in Washington last month. This will "prevent the Iranian influence," he said.

A number of U.S. officials, particularly in the White House, have voiced reservations about engaging the Syrians. They particularly worry that any talks with Damascus could hurt Lebanon, which Syria occupied for more then 30 years before withdrawing in 2005 after the Hariri murder. The belief is that Syria will demand renewed political influence inside Lebanon in return for peace with Israel.

U.S. officials particularly believe Damascus is playing a central role in the current political standoff in Beirut, where governing and opposition groups have been unable to elect a new president for weeks. Lebanon's president Friday declared a state of emergency , arguing the additional security was needed to ward off a civil war. (Please see related article.)

"We wouldn't have the problems we see today in Lebanon if Syria were deciding to take a different role. Plain and simple," Assistant Secretary of State David Welch told a Senate hearing earlier this month.

At the same time, U.S. officials, including Iraq commander Gen. David Petraeus, have been praising Damascus for what they say has been its "robust" effort recently to cut off the flow of foreign fighters crossing into Iraq. Some Syria analysts say there are indications that President Assad has taken steps to limit the movements of militant leaders based in Damascus, such as Hamas's political head, Khaled Mashal.

A Syrian diplomat said his government has significantly increased the policing of its borders into Iraq, including developing more watchtowers and border patrols. The Syrian government also allowed foreign diplomats, including a U.S. representative, to monitor its border operations during a tour earlier this month.

This schedule is about three days old and does not have the word Golan included in section III of Tuesday's evens where Syria and Lebanon are to have a chance to speak. Presumably Syria is waiting for the Golan issue to be written in.

Schedule for Annapolis Conference and Related Events

Sunday, November 25

TBC Three-way Meeting on Roadmap Implementation (at State)

TBC Planning Meeting for Post-Annapolis Negotiations (in DC)

Monday, November 26

1050 POTUS [President of the US] Bilateral Meeting with Prime Minister Olmert

(1 hour)

POC: Alon Sachar – Israelis

1315 POTUS Bilateral Meeting with President Abbas

(1 hour)

POC: Shayna Steinger – Palestinians

1500 (TBC) Possible S meeting with Arab FMs (S Office)

POCs: Del Controls for participating delegations

1600 (TBC) S Bilateral Meeting with Russian FM Lavrov (S Office)

POC: Alex Angert – Russians

1700 (TBC) Quartet Principals Meeting (Henry Clay Room, HST 8th Floor)

POCs:

1800 Cocktails/Reception at State Department (HST 8th Floor)

POC: Alex Sundquist, Site Officer

1900-2130 Dinner hosted by Secretary Rice with remarks by POTUS (HST

8th Floor)

POC: Alex Sundquist, Site Officer

Tuesday, November 27

0900 Delegation Buses leave the C Street entrance en route to

Annapolis. Delegations shuld arrive at 8:00am for security procedures and

to be ready for a 9:00am departure.

0840 POTUS Departs White House

0910 POTUS NSC Pre-Brief (Buchanan House)

POTUS will greet Abbas and Olmert individually as they arrive

0940 POTUS Trilateral meeting in Annapolis with Abbas and Olmert

(Buchanan House)

POTUS will have photo-op with Abbas and Olmert at conclusion

1100-1215 Opening Session (Memorial Hall)

POC: Ashley Bagwell, Site Officer

(Note: POTUS, Olmert, and Abbas depart after this session)

1230-1330 Lunch hosted by Secretary Rice (Smoke Hall)

• Secretary Rice remarks 1230-1245

• Lunch service completed 1245-1315

• Russian FM Lavrov remarks 1315-1330 (note – Lavrov likely

to leave immediately after lunch due to daughter’s wedding

in Moscow)

1345-1445 Remarks by UN and Arab Leaders

(Memorial Hall)

Proposed list and order of speakers – UNSYG Ban ki-Moon, FM

Saud al-Faiysal as Chair of Arab Summit and Arab League Follow-

Up Committee, Egyptian FM Aboul Gheit.

Afternoon Plenary Sessions (Memorial Hall)

1500-1615

I. International Support for the Bilateral Process

Warm statements welcoming the statements by POTUS and the

parties.

Proposed Speaker list and order – EU High Rep Solana, Jordanian

FM Khatib, Portuguese FM Amado, German FM Steinmeier,

Canadian FM Bernier, other members of the Arab League Follow-

Up Committee such as Morocco, Tunisia, Qatar, or Bahrain? Would

we want Livni to speak during this session?

1630-1730

II. Institutional Reform and Capacity Building

Statements focusing on what the international community is doing

and what must be done over the coming months to build the

institutional and economic capacity of the Palestinians. Should

help lay foundation for December donors conference.

Proposed speaker list and order – Quartet Representative Blair

(does Blair chair this session?), Palestinian PM Fayyad, EC

Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner, Norwegian FM Stoere, French FM

Kouchner, UK Foreign Secretary Miliband, Japanese FM Koumura.

Would we want Livni or Barak to speak during this session?

1745-1900

III. Toward a Comprehensive Peace

This will be the opportunity for Syria and Lebanon to speak, and

also an opportunity for discussion of Arab reconciliation with Israel.

Proposed speaker list and order – Arab League SYG Moussa,

Indonesian FM Wirajuda, Syrian FM Mualem, Malaysian FM

Hamid, Lebanese FM, Oman or UAE FM? Livni or Barak might also

be interested in speaking during this session.

1930-2000 Press conference (Chair Summary, Q&A)

Wednesday, November 28

1050 POTUS Bilateral Meeting with President Abbas

1315 POTUS Bilateral Meeting with Prime Minister Olmert

Dear Joshua

.

As far as I know, the  Syrian final decision to attend Annapolis has not been taken yet. The story is: The Syrians were very disappointed by Rice's letter to invite Moalem, as the Golan was not mentioned at all.

.

In Cairo, Moalem said to his counterparts: "We are ready to attend if Golan is on the agenda." The Egyptian foreign minister and Mousa called Rice asking her to put Golan on the Agenda. You know there are three Sessions in Annapolis:

.

Palestinian – Israel track.

Economic support.

Comprehensive peace.

  

Abou Gheit told Rice to write " Syrian track (Golan)" and "Lebanese track" under the title "Comprehensive".

David Welch called back on Thursday saying, "Yes."

  

Moealem was happy about it. meanwhile many officials called Assad urging him to send Moalem.

.

Now, The Syrians are waiting for the written agenda. They want to see that "Syrian track (Golan)" is written on it. If so, they will go. At which level? We will see.

.

Best, Ibrahim

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????? ?????????? ??? ???? ????? ??????? ??? ????? ???????? ????? ????? ?? ???? 27 ??????? ???? ???? ?????: ????? ?????? ?????????-??????????? ????? ????? ????????? ??????????? ????? ??"?????? ??????". ?????? ????????? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ?????? ???"?????? ??????" ?? ????? ????? "?????? ??????-??????????" ????? ?? ???? "???????" ??? ????? ?????? "?????? ????????-??????????". ???? ???? ??????-???? ?? ??? ??? ????? "????? ????" ??? ????? ?????? ????????.

??? ?????? ??????? ??????????? ??? ?????? "????? ????????"? ???? ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ????? ???? ???????? ????? ????? ????????? ????? ??"??????" ?? ?????? ???????? ???????? ????? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ??????? ?????.
??? ?? ??????? ????? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ?? "?????? ??????? ????? ??? ???? ???? ??????? ??????? ?? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ??????? ????". ????? :"?? ????? ??????? ????????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ???????? ??? ?? ?????? ????? ?? ????????? ?? ???????????? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ???????? ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ?????".

????? ??????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? ??? "??? ????? ????? ???????" ??? ?????? ?????? ????????? ??????? ?? ???? ????? ???? ?? ???? "?????? ??????? ????? ??????? ??????? ???????".

????? ?? ?????? ?????? ?? ?????????? ??? "????? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???????? ?? ???????? ?????? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????- ?????????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ?????? ???????".

?????

Here is what the NYTimes has to say.

Saudis to Join Mideast Talks; Syria Wavers
By MONA EL-NAGGAR and ISABEL KERSHNER
Published: November 24, 2007 

“We will not decide to participate until we receive the agenda and read that the second issue on the agenda is the Syrian-Israeli track, that is, the occupied Syrian Golan Heights,” said Syria’s foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem.

Officials in Cairo said that the Syrians had informed Washington of their demand. Arab League officials said that there were talks taking place that left them optimistic that Syria would be allowed to attend.

The distance between the sides appeared small: Syria wanted the item expressly put on the agenda, and the United States was willing to allow discussion of the Golan Heights, without putting it on the agenda, officials here said.

Mr. Moallem, in reference to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, said, “She promised a positive response and we are waiting to receive the agenda.”

Bush administration officials said Friday that Syrian officials were free to bring up any issues they wanted during the conference, but that the United States would not specifically put the Golan Heights on the agenda. “We will not turn off anyone’s microphone,” a senior administration official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

This analysis, explaining why Facebook was blocked in Syria, was written to my by Idaf. It is very interesting. It argues that the reason Facebook was banned was not because of government concerns about virtual "civil society" as I wrote yesterday, an argument that has also appeared on the wire services today. Rather, Idaf argues, security heads in Syria were concerned to stop a spam campaign that used Facebook and was directed against the persons of President Asad and particularly his wife. It also argues that the number of Syrians participating on Facebook continues to expand despite the ban.

Here is Idaf's note:

Dear Josh,

Lets put things in a bit of context!

Since the blocking of Facebook in Syria (first ISP blocked it on Saturday, the last ISP to block it was on Thursday), I was monitoring the "Syria Network" on Facebook (the official Facebook network for Syria).

First, here are the facts, my analysis will follow:

1-Official number of Syrian Internet SUBSCRIBERS in Syria is 370,000 (end 2006). The total estimated number of USERS is 1.5 million users.
2-Number of Syrians residing in Syria who are members of Facebook (those on the official "Syria Network"): 28,350 users (23-Nov-2007)
3-Increase ratio of Syrians joining Facebook (overwhelming majority with their full name): 10,000 users per month. In early October, the number of Syrians on the "Syria Network" was 12,000, today it is over 28,000 users.
4-Percentage of Internet Users in Syria who are Facebook users: 28,300 / 1.5 million = 0.0055 percent

Syria says Golan Heights on Annapolis agenda
Reuters
Friday, November 23, 2007; 10:17 AM

DAMASCUS (Reuters) – The United States has agreed to put the occupied Golan Heights on the agenda of the Annapolis peace conference but Syria will decide whether to attend when it receives the schedule, Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said on Friday.

"The United States has sent confirmation that it will include the Syrian-Israeli track… the Golan… on the Annapolis schedule," the Syrian news agency quoted Moualem as saying.

"Syria will decide whether to attend or not in light of the schedule it receives," he added.

There was no immediate comment from Washington.

The Damascus government has repeatedly said it would only attend the U.S.-hosted conference, which aims to restart talks on Palestinian statehood, if the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since 1967, are on the agenda.

Moualem was in Cairo for a meeting of Arab foreign ministers to prepare a common strategy for the Annapolis conference on November 27. He said Syria learnt about the inclusion of the Golan through Arab ministers who contacted Washington about the issue.

Pro-U.S. Arab governments have been putting pressure on Syria to attend the conference in Annapolis, Maryland, even if the Golan is not explicitly on the agenda. Diplomats say there will be a session about comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace that addresses the Golan.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, David Welch, said on Tuesday that the Syrians were entitled to "express their views and their national interests" at the conference.

"We think it (Annapolis) represents an opportunity for all those who would like to make meaningful steps toward peace to come and represent their views," he said, when asked whether Syria could raise the issue of the Golan Heights at Annapolis.

"We won't turn off the microphone," said Welch.

(Reporting by Khaled Yacoub Oweis; Editing by Dominic Evans)

Anthony Shadid has the best article on Lebanon's failure to elect a new president: "From Hopeful To Helpless At a Protest In Lebanon," in the Washington Post. Anthony has been on leave for the last 6 months writing a book. He seems to be back, inshaallah.

Paul Salem of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace is quoted in the WSJ:

"We are looking at at least another year and a half of drifting, but right now drifting looks like a good option if we can avoid conflict."

He is probably correct. Kicking the ball down the road is Lebanon's best option until the Bush administration is no more. Th stubbornness of all sides has become intractable. So long as Lebanon does not get broken, it will be doing well.

Progress in Lebanon is intimately related to progress in Palestine. It is a large ball of wax. Most actors are making calculations in one place based on their position in the other. This is certainly true of Syria, which views Lebanon as a card that can only be played when the Golan is on the table. So long as the peace process is going no where for Syria, Damascus will not council flexibility among its allies in Lebanon. Likewise, the US cannot expect to force its will on Lebanon while stiffing Syria in the peace process. Israel will not get relief from Hizbullah so long as it refuses to relinquish the Golan. The Palestinians have no leverage at all.

Here is the Hamidi article translated into English thanks to http://mideastwire.com

Dialogue with Damascus to induce it to attend Annapolis & support Ghanem

Ibrahim Al-Humaydi of Al-Hayat, an independent Saudi owned newspaper, wrote on November 23: "The information available to Al-Hayat showed that there were several communications yesterday with high ranking Syrian officials to convince Damascus to attend the international peace conference to be held in the American city of Annapolis and to play a role in convincing the Lebanese opposition to accept MP Robert Ghanem as a "consensus candidate". The Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad received phone calls from the Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi, the Jordanian King Abdullah the Second, the Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Syrian foreign minister Walid Al-Muallem received a phone call from his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov while the French ambassador to Damascus visited the Syrian foreign ministry.

"It was learned that these communications focused on the issues of the presidential elections in Lebanon and the international conference in Annapolis especially as the Lebanese parliamentary session to be held today to elect a new president coincides with the meetings of the foreign ministers of the Arab countries in Cairo to reach a united Arab attitude towards Annapolis. Knowledgeable Syrian sources announced to Al-Hayat yesterday that the Annapolis meeting "is not a conference because any conference necessitates preparations and foundations. It is not right to call it a conference. If the purpose behind it is to recite speeches, then the assembly of the United Nations is more suitable". The sources were talking about the absence of the Golan Heights issue from the conference's agenda and from the letter of invitation sent by the American secretary of state Condoleezza Rice to Al-Muallem two days ago.

"The sources added: "the region is passing through a crisis. The failure of the conference will complicate the situation immeasurably and strike a blow at the chances for achieving real peace". The final decision about whether Syria will participate or not and about its level of participation, whether though Al-Muallem or through its ambassador to Washington Imad Mustapha, remained connected to the final result of the international communications with Damascus and of the meeting of the Arab foreign ministers in which Al-Muallem is participating. The sources quoted Prodi telling Al-Assad in his phone call that "any peace related talks in the region can't succeed without the contribution and participation of Syria". The Syrian sources wondered: "what will attending the conference do without enough preparations and in light of the unsuitable internal Palestinian conditions?"

"The sources confirmed that Damascus "supports any real effort to achieve peace in the Middle East". The foreign communications yesterday also discussed the Lebanese presidential elections as Damascus was informed that Robert Ghanem is the "consensus candidate" currently on the table and that Washington "does support Michel Idde" despite the fact that the Lebanese opposition considers Ghanem "as a candidate from March 14 and not a consensus candidate". Diplomatic sources announced that the communications are aimed at convincing Damascus to convince the opposition to accept Ghanem. According to conforming sources, the reports coming in from Beirut show that there are two possible options: electing MP Ghanem after he gains the support of the opposition in return for "guarantees not to target the weapons of the resistance which should be dealt with in the context of the national dialogue" and giving promises of a "big s hare" to the Reform and Change coalition headed by MP Michel Aoun in the coming government.

"The second option is to postpone the electoral session in the context of an "orderly vacuum" which would allow for intense communications later on to reach an agreement about electing a consensus president from outside the list suggested by the Maronite patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir who would be acceptable to all the internal, regional, and international factions."

Secretary of State Rice and Samir Geagea, Lebanon’s main anti-Syrian Christian leader on Wednesday accused Syria of blocking a deal on a new Lebanese president, just two days before the incumbent’s term ends.

The United States, a strong supporter of Mr. Geagea and his allies in the anti-Syrian governing coalition, told Syria to stop what Washington said was interference in the process.

“It really ought to be decided without foreign interference, and certainly without any foreign intimidation,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters. “Those messages have been very clearly sent.”

Lebanese Opposition Offers Deal To End Political Impasse
AFP: 2007-11-22 12:59 (New York)

BEIRUT (AFP)–Lebanese opposition leader Michel Aoun proposed Thursday that his camp name an interim president and that the ruling majority appoint a prime minister to end a long-running presidential row. 

Aoun said in a televised announcement that he would name a candidate from outside his parliamentary bloc to become president until after the 2009 legislative elections, after which a president would be elected for a full six-year term.

He said parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri would name a prime minister from outside his Future Movement to form a national "reconciliation government."

Aoun said his proposal would only be valid until 2100 GMT Friday, just one hour before the end of the mandate of incumbent president Emile Lahoud. 

Aoun made the proposal after a member of the ruling majority announced that Friday's last-ditch session in parliament to vote for a successor to Lahoud would be postponed.

Beirut Is Not Tehran
By Andrew Exum and Stephen McInerney
Tuesday, November 20, 2007; 9:54 AM

When Lebanese President Emile Lahoud's term expires on Friday, Lebanese democracy will face a stern test. Political factions there are deadlocked over the selection of a new president, and Lebanon could see the formation of two parallel governments — or, worse, the outbreak of civil war….

Iraq's foreign militants 'come from US allies'
Peter Walker
November 22, 2007 (Thanks "friday-lunch-club")
Guardian Unlimited

Around 60% of all foreign militants who entered Iraq to fight over the past year came from Saudi Arabia and Libya, according to files seized by American forces at a desert camp.

The files listed the nationalities and biographical details of more than 700 fighters who crossed into Iraq from August last year, around half of whom came to the country to be suicide bombers, the New York Times reported today.

In all, 305, or 41%, of the fighters listed were from Saudi Arabia. Another 137, or 18%, came from Libya. Both countries are officially US allies in anti-terrorism efforts.

In contrast, 56 Syrians were listed and no Lebanese. Previously, US officials estimated that around a fifth of all foreign fighters in Iraq came from these two countries.

US officials have also long complained about Iranian interference in the affairs of its neighbour, accusing Tehran of shipping weapons for militants over the border. However, any assistance does not appear to extend to people, the paper said, reporting that, of around 25,000 suspected militants in US custody in Iraq, 11 were Iranian. No Iranians were listed among the fighters whose details were found.

The information came from files and computers seized in September when US forces raided a camp in the desert near Sinjar, a small town in north-west Iraq, close to the Syrian border. It was believed the camp was the base for an insurgent cell responsible for smuggling the vast majority of foreign fighters into Iraq.

The files also gave details of 68 Yemeni nationals, the third-biggest source. There were 64 fighters from Algeria, 50 from Morocco, 38 from Tunisia, 14 from Jordan, six from Turkey and two each from Egypt and France.

According to the newspaper, US officials believe the raid stemmed the flow of foreign militants into Iraq, which dropped to around 40 in October, down from a peak of more than 100 a month in the first half of this year.

Last month there were 16 suicide bombings in Iraq, sharply down from a peak of 59 in March. According to the report, the US military believes 90% of such attacks are carried out by foreigners.

However, US officers fear this effect may be temporary. "We cut the head off, but the tail is still left," a senior military official told the newspaper. "Regeneration is completely within the realm of possibility."

The US has previously estimated the nationalities of fighters crossing over the Syrian border into Iraq, but the seized files give a more complete picture.

While Saudi Arabia is a long-term US ally, its nationals form the nucleus of al-Qaida; 15 of the 19 September 11 attackers were from the country.

And while Libya was listed by the US as a state sponsor of terrorism, it was removed last year after the countries restored full diplomatic relations.

US commander gives part credit to Syria for military gains in Iraq

WASHINGTON (AFP) — The number of foreign combatants with Al-Qaeda ties in Iraq is down markedly in recent months, top US commander David Petraeus said in an interview published Wednesday, thanks largely to "more robust" interdiction efforts by Syria.

"We have a formula to estimate how many foreign fighters come in a month. We think there's been a reduction by a third or maybe more than that," Petraeus told The Wall Street Journal.

"In general, the intelligence is that we have seen a reduction in that flow," he said.

In the past, the United States has accused Damascus of failing to do enough to stem the flow of foreign fighters across its shared border with Iraq.

Now however, although the US general attributed the reduction to "no single factor," he credited efforts by Damascus in large part.

"There does appear to have been more robust action by Syria against some foreign fighter networks," said Petraeus, who cited efforts "to make it harder for military-age males to travel from a city to Damascus on a one-way airticket."

Petraeus said Syria also has moved "to tighten the border ports of entry to Iraq, to look at traditional smuggling routes."

Those inroads, among other factors, have helped brighten US prospects of subduing the stubborn Al-Qaeda-fed insurgency in Iraq.

While the terror network "remains a very significant element of the security situation in Iraq … it is a threat that has been diminished over the past six to eight months in particular," Petraeus told the Wall Street Journal.

Facebook has been blocked in Syria. Some articles are suggesting that the government has taken this step because too many Israelis have been entering into Syria-based groups. I do not believe this.

Facebook has become a virtual civil-society in Syria. Many civic groups sprung up over-night and became popular with thousands. Groups about preserving the old city, getting back the Golan Heights, supporting civil marriage, women's' groups, art associations, and you-name-it. Every day my email includes invitations to join new groups and associations that are being created with the speed of light. They are only limited by the imaginations of hundreds of thousands of Syrians who have been kept from forming such groups in non-virtual life.

Facebook was a phenomenon. Last summer in Damascus, many of my younger professional friends did nothing but talk about Facebook and the groups they were joining. It was extraordinary. Syrians loved it. It was completely democratic and new. Undoubtedly this made it very scary for the authorities. There remain many ways to get around the blackout, but Facebook will never be the same. Most Syrians do not want to fight their government. But they do want to enjoy life and have a degree of liberty.

This cartoon is taken from the Nobles News site in Syria, which says that its site: Shabab lak – a youth site, which has over 56,000 members among Syria's youth, has also been blocked.

Syria Blocks Facebook
Source: Al-Safir, Lebanon, November 19, 2007

In a move angering many, particularly young people, Syrian authorities yesterday blocked the Facebook website.

No government body has explained the meaning of the move, but observers estimate that it was motivated by fear of Israelis infiltrating the Syrian social networks being formed by site members.

Syrians find new friend in Beirut
Facebook ban marks latest in series of restrictions that have driven dissidents to Lebanon

BEIRUT — To the outside world, Lebanon's constantly turbulent political scene can make the country seem like a dangerous place to visit. But to Syrians who have fallen out with the regime of President Bashar Assad, the tiny country next door is a democratic paradise.

With Mr. Assad's regime moving in recent months toward even tighter controls on free speech and dissent – this week it banned access to the popular Facebook social-networking website – a growing number of young Syrian dissidents have settled here in Lebanon, the only Arab country where they feel free to express their opinions and continue their political activism…..

The Perils of Engagement By: Jeff Robbins | The Wall Street Journal
If the Bush administration were truly "engaged," the argument goes, the chances for Middle East peace would be greatly improved. Next week's meeting in Annapolis, Md., between Israel and at least certain of its Arab interlocutors has the look and feel of more of the same.

Bring Syria into the Talks By: Yossi Alpher | International Herald Tribune
Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, is not moderate, at times resembles a Mafia chieftain more than a head of state and threatens war with Israel. But he has not been invited to Annapolis because Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President George W. Bush don't want to talk to him until he cleans up his act and stops assassinating Lebanese politicians and meddling in Iraq.

Ibrahim Hamidi reports that Syria will not go to Annapolis because the Golan is not on the official agenda. [addendum: Helena Cobban says: "Read the original which says, 'Syria will not go unless there is a surprise…] Hamidi is one of the most reliable journalists in Syria. He usually gets the story first. 

Many will ask why Syria does not say yes to Annapolis even if the Golan is not explicitly on the agenda. I think the best answer is that President Bashar has said from the beginning that Golan must be on the agenda and that Syria must get a proper invitation. Neither condition was fulfilled. The State Department has given vague assurances that there will be a follow up conference that will discuss broader issues, including the Golan. Syria's invitation has come at the last minute and begrudgingly.

More importantly, however, Damascus is being asked to concede to America's strategy in Palestine and the region without getting any firm commitment that its own interests will be accommodated.

By going to Annapolis, Syria will be abandoning its ally Hamas and agreeing to fall in line with Washington's and Israel's strategy of starving Hamas-stan and fattening up the West Bank. Syria would also be expected to lean on its allies in Lebanon in order to further Washington's candidate for a President in Beirut. Without a firm commitment form the US that Syria will be on the road to getting back the Golan, it cannot make these concessions.

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Syria is softening its refusal to attend the Annapolis peace conference and already has won dividends, including a visit from Jordan's king that marked an end to regional isolation.

But as it bends, it risks alienating Palestinian militants and its ally Iran.

Syria was unlikely to announce a final decision on whether it will go to the conference until after a meeting of Arab foreign ministers to be held in Cairo on Friday to map out a joint strategy.

Publicly, Syrian officials have said Syria would not go unless its demands for the return of the Golan Heights, seized by Israel in 1967, are addressed.

State-run newspapers, which reflect government thinking, continued Wednesday to criticize the conference, calling it "suspicious."

But intense diplomatic activity toward Damascus and comments made by President Bashar Assad this week suggest that possible deals to secure Syrian attendance might be worked out behind the scenes. On Monday, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said he believed Syria's foreign minister would attend.

At a meeting of Syria's leadership Monday, Assad said the region is witnessing events that "could have grave impact on the future of the countries and peoples if they are not dealt with in a rational way." His words were taken to mean the peace conference in the U.S.

And the United States seems to have met some of Syria's demands to prod Damascus into going to Annapolis. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Wednesday the United States will give room for those other conflicts to be aired at Annapolis, including Syria's dispute with Israel over the Golan.

Despite sour relations between the U.S. and Syria, the Bush administration appears keen on a Syrian presence at Monday's conference in Annapolis, which would give the impression that Syria can be lured out of Iran's orbit and into the Arab fold. Syria, which the United States accuses of being a state sponsor of terror, is an archenemy of Israel and supports radical anti-Israel Palestinian factions.

"They want to show everyone that Syria can be tamed, taken away from the Iranian axis," said Ahmad Haj Ali, a political analyst and member of Syria's ruling Baath party.

"If Syria goes, it would have achieved what the others want without achieving anything for itself. The price will be extremely high," he said.

Syrian lawmaker Mohammed Habash said Syria was keeping its options open, but said Syria is not interested in going to Annapolis "to attend a carnival."

Habash said Syria is the "spinal cord" of a front that includes Iran, the "resistance" in Iraq, Hezbollah and Hamas. "If Syria goes to such a conference, it will naturally shake this alliance. So do not think for one second that Syria would go just to get a piece of chocolate over there," he said. "It would be political folly."

Hamas, whose leadership is based in Damascus, has dismissed the conference as lacking seriousness and only aiming at covering up a future American attack against Iran.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Thursday called the conference "stillborn" and predicted it would not bring any benefits to the Palestinians.