by Qifa Nabki

In an article entitled “The Mamluk Conception of the Sultanate” (Int’l Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, xxvi, 1994), the historian Amalia Levanoni discusses the intellectual background of the Mamluk political system. The Mamluks, who ruled Egypt, Syria, and parts of Western Arabia from 1250-1517, were a dynasty of Turkic slaves who seized power from the weakening Ayyubid regime and created one of the strangest systems of government witnessed in human history: a slave sultanate, in which the supreme ruler was chosen from among an elite class of former slave warriors. Remarkably, this system sustained itself for two and a half centuries, withstood the Mongol invasions, succumbing only to rising Ottoman hegemony in the early 16^th century.

Rather bizarrely, the recent Lebanese political experience contains a couple of features in common with the Mamluk system, which was a military oligarchy dominated by factions who competed endlessly with each other for power. A few quotes from Levanoni are illustrative: 

“After they had seized power, their dominant amirs formed a council and chose one from among their rank as sultan whom they entrusted with their authority and made their representative… Although the choice was sometimes predetermined, the sources all describe decisions of the amirs as expressions of common consent-the phrase used is ittafaqa ‘alaa, "they reached agreement." (375-76)

“That the sultan remained dependent on the support of the mamluks becomes obvious in the sources of this period. They introduce the rather surprising phrase, kaana murashshahan li l-saltana "he was a candidate for the sultanate." As in modern times, the term "candidate" implies that the electors have an advantage over the would-be ruler” (385)

Sound familiar?

Anyone who has been following the Lebanese standoff cannot help but feel some déjà vu upon reading these descriptions, and they suggest the following observation about the breakdown of the Lebanese government: it is less a function of sectarianism than it is a product of a defective political architecture. Simply put, Lebanon remains an oligarchy dominated by a few important families and political figures, and the state has not yet developed the structures to regulate and eventually break the power of this political class.  

Solutions

Many have said that the solution to Lebanon’s crisis lies in reforming several aspects of its political system. Where to begin? At a Brookings Institution presentation entitled "Lebanon: The Forgotten Crisis" Bilal Saab argues that "the root cause [of the problem] is political representation and power sharing amongst communal groups in Lebanon." The three ways in which the conflict has been typically portrayed (i.e., as a (i) Sunni-Shiite conflict; (ii) a conflict between those who want Lebanese independence and those who want Syrian tutelage; (iii) a clash between "moderates" and "extremists") are all, he says, wrong. Rather:

…the essence of the conflict for almost 2 years now has to do with the fact that the Lebanese political system has reached the point where it can no longer ignore the political aspirations of one large unit in that system, which is the Shiite community.

Saab goes on to say that these aspirations will not be addressed substantively "as long as Hizbullah remains the unchallenged patron of the Shiite community," because of how the militia is viewed by Sunnis, Druze, and a segment of the Christian community. What is needed is not so much a second Ta'if Accord, but rather the full implementation of the existing Ta'if Accord, specifically within four major areas:

1. The decentralization of administration of municipalities
2. Devising a new and fair electoral law
3. Strengthening the judiciary
4. Abolition of confessionalism (a long-term objective)

One thing that Saab does not mention, but which normally tops the list of clauses from Ta'if that should be fully implemented, is the creation of a senate. Bicameralism is a system of government that would appear to be tailor-made for a country like Lebanon. The Ta'if Accord states:

With the election of the first Chamber of Deputies on a national, not sectarian, basis, a senate shall be formed and all the spiritual families shall be represented in it. The senate powers shall be confined to crucial issues.

Such a formulation is highly (and purposefully) ambiguous, but the gist is that a second legislative body should be created, in which all of the various sects are represented. This system, theoretically, would express the will of the majority while protecting the rights of the minority. Under such an arrangement, the parliament would be elected with no constraints or allotments of seats based on sect, while the senate would give each sect an equal number of seats, much like the American system whereby California and Rhode Island have two senators each but California has 53 representatives in the House, to Rhode Island's two. 

Several questions emerge; given the number of Christian sects in Lebanon (over a dozen), this would presumably create a large imbalance, vis-a-vis the number of seats given to Muslim sects. There are other issues as well. The increasing demographic weight of the Shi`a population in Lebanon, coupled with the larger rates of immigration in Sunni and Christian communities may prompt the Shi`a parties to argue against decoupling the logic of confessionalism so thoroughly from Lebanese politics. Finally, of course, there is the influence of Syria, which has mostly obstructed the full implementation of Ta'if since its inception, precisely because of the greater degree of independence that will accrue from these measures.

The Near Term

These solutions are still very far off, and seem to offer little guidance in the way of solving the short-term crisis. In the meantime, both the majority and the opposition must realize that each passing week drives the nail further into the coffin of genuine reconciliation, much less reform. A wininer-take-all endgame, on the other hand, would be potentially catastrophic, given the boiling point reached in the tensions between partisans of the opposing groups. A 10-10-10 solution is the only way, and the majority should be willing to give up a blocking veto to the opposition in exchange for the immediate election of Suleiman as president without any further conditions placed on ministerial portfolios. (If necessary, the more powerful ministries should be appointed by Suleiman himself). This is the only face-saving solution for both sides. Perhaps this is its primary virtue, but it is an important one. Such a solution will undoubtedly lead to more stagnation and bickering, but at least it will be within the context of a functioning government, which will gradually undercut the turmoil and spirit of anarchic conflict in the street, and give the country a much needed feeling of closure.

The government that emerges in the wake of this crisis is going to be a lame-duck (or single issue, at best) government, no matter who wins. There is no trust left between the two sides, and the parties will be almost exclusively focused on the legislative elections of 2009. The single issue that might provide a source of cooperation is the reforming of the electoral law, which has already received a great deal of attention. Both sides should opt for turning 2008 into a recovery year, an opportunity to draw breath, before returning to the trenches in 2009. At that point, there will be a new face in the White House, perhaps a new strategy in Iraq, and with any luck,  fresh opportunities for political reconciliation.

Banning Facebook in Syria
BBC Arabic Radio
BY Louay Ismail

Part1 (Landis speaks Arabic) 

louaybanningfacebookinthearabworld_partone_2008_02_17t11_06_19_377.mp3

Part2

louaybanningfacebookinthearabworld_parttwo_2008_02_17t11_06_40_220.mp3

The flow of foreign militants entering Iraq to fight for al Qaeda has fallen by half
Gen. Petraeus on Monday February 11 said: (Reuters)

The flow of foreign militants entering Iraq to fight for al Qaeda has fallen by half, General David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, said on Monday.

Much of the fall in numbers was due to countries barring young men from flying to the Syrian cities of Damascus and Aleppo on one-way tickets, said Petraeus.

The U.S. government has long urged Syria to take steps to stop foreign fighters crossing its long land border with Iraq. Damascus says it has stepped up security on the frontier after the U.S. criticism.

"The flow of fighters is down, we think by about 50 percent," Petraeus told Reuters in an interview.

"It's a result not just of Syrian activity, although there has been some. It's the result of source countries making it tougher to fly as a military age male," he added.

Most of the fighters coming across the borders are believed to be affiliated with Sunni Islamist al Qaeda in Iraq. Al Qaeda's foot soldiers and suicide bombers attack U.S. forces, the Shi'ite-led government and groups they regard as un-Islamic.

Last month the U.S. military said captured al Qaeda documents showed 750 militants from 22 countries entered Iraq during the 12 months leading up to August 2007.

Petraeus did not say which countries were taking action at airports, but the documents said just under half the foreign fighters entering Iraq come from Saudi Arabia, followed by Libya, Yemen, Syria, Tunisia and Morocco.

It also said 90 percent of the al Qaeda suicide bombers were foreign. Most of al Qaeda in Iraq's leadership is foreign while the rank-and-file are Iraqi, the U.S. military says.

Petraeus said suicide bombers were still getting through, although he said it was difficult to assess numbers.

The Bush administration believes the best way to convince Syria to compromise with March 14 and improve its record on the Iraq border is by increasing the pain imposed on Syrian officials and the regime. I think this will fail, but one can never tell. We will see. There are those who believe that the situation in Lebanon is being stabilized by the heightened rhetoric of March 14, the killing of Mughniyah, and added sanctions on Syria.

The irony for me is that only 3 days ago, I wrote a policy paper for people in Washington arguing that the US had little remaining leverage over Syria. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation, the Hariri trial, and "sticks" in general had not worked. Only "carrots" and engaging Syria in mutually beneficial arrangements stand a chance of influencing Damascus' policies in a direction favored by the US. On the Iraqi border, the issue I was asked to address, winning greater Syrian compliance would be relatively easy. Syria's main interest in Iraq these days is to increase trade and to make growing commerce with Iraq an integral part of the overall effort to grow the Syrian economy. It wants the Kirkuk-Banyas oil pipeline repaired and opened; it wants subsidies for the 1.5 million Iraqi refugees in Syria, it wants…. There is a long list.

After writing the essay – surprise – Mughniyah was killed and President Bush announced a new order of sanctions, targeting anyone engaged in "public corruption." In essence, the deck has been cleared for a bare knuckle fight between Washington and Damascus.

Many analysts believe that Syria and Hizbullah, enraged by the insult of the Mughniyah killing, will strike out at a high-value Israeli or American target and get trapped in a cycle of revenge killings that only Washington can win. In such a war, America's superior press machine will be able to paint Damascus as a center of terrorism. Washington will lean on Europeans to join it in yet more Syrian sanctions and condemnation.

But Damascus is unlikely to head unwittingly down this path. It's eyes are set on Lebanon and promoting its allies there. It is unlikely that Syria will fall into this trap and allow itself to be diverted from its primary goal by the Mughniyah provocation. Damascus will hold tight in Lebanon, preventing the election of a president and the meeting of parliament. The Lebanese economy is groaning under this regime of paralysis. Saudi Arabia pumped another billion dollars into the central bank last week to keep it afloat. US markets down-graded Lebanese debt and banks to the level of super junk, which serves to raise the price of further borrowing and refinancing for Lebanon. Such economic water-torture is designed to make March 14 suffer – after all, most of Lebanon's wealthy and globalized belong to March 14. Most of the country's poor and less globalized belong to the opposition.

The battle between Washington and Damascus is largely an economic one. Washington has imposed every type of sanction on Syria it can, but to little effect. Syria's economy is growing at almost 6%. Lebanon's economy is stagnating. It has been limping along since taking a 15% dive during the Israeli clobbering of 2006. Stagnation has come despite the 7 billion dollars promised by foreign powers, military aid, and other largess, such as the Saudi infusion, from wealthy allies.

Bashar al-Assad has promised his people two things: to pursue "resistance" against Israel and America in the pursuit of "Arab rights," as his father did, and to grow the economy and globalize. Syrians are fed up with being poor and sacrificing economically for a fight which hardly seems winnable. All the same, they believe in the "Arab values" and Arab identity that go along with fighting for the Golan and fighting Israel, so long as they don't have to sacrifice too much for them. Bashar al-Assad is pursuing the China model – economic liberalization and globalization – while maintaining strict political control and preserving its regional role and leverage to fight Israel and America for the return of the Golan and "Arab rights."

Washington wants to cut Syria down to size and deny it any possibility of pursuing the resistance option of gaining leverage against Israel for a return of the Golan. It wants to destroy Hizbullah and to take Lebanon out of Syria's sphere of influence. It hopes to eliminate Hamas and force Syria to expel whatever resistance-minded Palestinian leaders it harbors in Damascus. In essence, Washington has set itself the task of inducing Damascus to follow a "Syria First" policy, much as Jordan follows a "Jordan First" policy. This is a tall order as it requires Syria making an ideological and strategic about face. It's entire identity would need to be turned inside out.

To stand some chance of success, Washington will have to demonstrate to Syrians that America's allies are winning the battle in the Middle East – both economically and in terms of security. So far, the US is doing a miserable job demonstrating this. The Syrian economy is growing and Syria has stability. Lebanon's economy is dangerously over-extended and living on the mercy of foreign infusions. It has no security. Iraq – we won't talk about it. America calculated incorrectly in Iraq at almost every level. Today, Iraqis have no future. Syrians blame this on America, not Saddam, despite US efforts at public diplomacy.

President Assad is unlikely to change course because of the new sanction law, the Mughniyah killing, and the upping of US funding for the international Hariri tribunal. This increased pressure and use of the "stick" will have to show results that the average Syrian taxi driver will understand.

Washington cannot win the economic war with Syria unless it can crash the Syrian economy. The new sanction law will be hot air if it is not used to paralyse the financial freedom of Rami Makhlouf, the President's cousin and the Mr. Economy for the Syrian regime. He will have to include all the top financiers in the sanctions regime in order to make the economy stumble and scare away foreign capital. If President Bush is serious, he will have to pursue his war all the way to the end.

President Assad is unlikely to blink in the face of President Bush's most recent provocations and warnings. Bush has lost his credibility in the Middle East. He is generally reviled. Most Syrians, and perhaps most Arabs, believe he is a greater terrorist than Assad because of what he has done to Iraq and Palestine. Assad has won the Arab propaganda war, even if he has lost the world propaganda battle. 

People believe he is a wounded lion and merely stringing out his confrontational policy until the end of his administration. Like a wounded lion, he is still dangerous, but his strength is in rapid decline. Few believe he can muster an all out fight. Certainly, he doesn't want to look weak; he doesn't want to abandon his March 14 allies; and he doesn't want to relinquish the "freedom agenda" which has become the core identity of his administration. Bush has taken a big blow in Lebanon due to his failure to anoint a new president who might allow March 14th to carry forward the anti-Hizbullah and anti-Syria fight. Bashar al-Assad and his Lebanese allies defied Western interests. They will pay a price for it. All the same, they expect to absorb the blow.

It is unlikely that they will be diverted from their main policy goals by the Mughniyah assassination. If anything, they will likely rally their supporters by preaching sacrifice and endurance. They will dig in for a new round of economic strictures and pain. If Bashar cannot deliver resistance and economic growth simultaneously, Washington has a chance of winning, but of course, it will be a Pyrrhic victory. Instead of Washington drawing Damascus into a terrorist game of tit-for-tat, Damascus will draw Washington into a game of starve-the-Syrian, which is a lose-lose game for America and everyone concerned.

Aleppo Jazz Quartet  in 2007 at the Citadel: Photo from here

Here are the relevant articles about sanctions, judicial pressure, and the propaganda blame game.

Bush orders sanctions against Syrian officials WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush, stepping up pressure on Syria, ordered new sanctions Wednesday to punish officials in Damascus for alleged efforts to undermine stability in Iraq and meddle in Lebanon's sovereignty and democracy.

Bush, in an executive order, said he was expanding penalties against senior government officials in Syria and their associates deemed to be responsible for — or to have benefited from — public corruption. The order did not specifically name any officials.

Bush signed the order a day after Imad Mughniyeh, one of the world's most wanted and elusive terrorists, was killed in a car bombing in Syria nearly 15 years after dropping from sight. The one-time Hezbollah security chief was the suspected mastermind of attacks that killed hundreds of Americans in Lebanon and of the brutal kidnappings of Westerners.

"The world is a better place without this man in it," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. "One way or the other, he was brought to justice."

The White House said Wednesday's executive order built on one Bush issued in May 2004 that banned all U.S. exports to Syria except for food and medicine. His earlier action followed long-standing complaints that the Middle Eastern nation was supporting terrorism and undermining U.S. efforts in Iraq.

Syria rejects new US sanctions, says Bush administration is corrupt
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
DAMASCUS, Syria

Syria ridiculed Thursday US president George Bush's decision to expand sanctions on Syrian officials saying that a country occupying the land of others has no right to hurl accusations.

On Wednesday President Bush ordered new sanctions to punish Syria for allegedly trying to undermine stability in Iraq and undercut Lebanon's sovereignty and democracy.

"The ones who steal the resources of other countries through occupation and corruption have no right to accuse others," said a high-ranking Syrian official to the Associated Press. "The Bush administration is not matched by any government in the world when it comes to corruption."

The official, who spoke on strict condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, was referring to reports of billions of dollars wasted by the US government on Iraq's reconstruction.

Fadlallah blames US for prolonging political crisis
America has worked 'to weaken' arab initiative
Saturday, February 16, 2008

BEIRUT: Senior Shiite cleric Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah lashed out at the United States on Friday accusing it of obstructing "any sort of solution" to the 14-month-old political deadlock in Lebanon. "The US has worked on weakening the Arab initiative aimed at solving the crisis in Lebanon and stirring political as well as sectarian tensions among the Lebanese," Fadlallah said during his Friday sermon at the Imam Hassanayn Mosque in Haret Hreik.

The Arab three-point plan calls for electing the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) General Michel Suleiman as president, the formation of a national unity government, and the drafting of a new electoral law for the 2009 parliamentary poll.

"The situation in Lebanon is going from bad to worse and the US and its Lebanese allies should be held responsible for the deadlock in Lebanon," he said.

Fadlallah added that the Lebanese live "in a state of fear and uncertainty because they no longer stand united."

Syria is "directly responsible" for the political crisis in Lebanon and the accompanying violence, a senior U.S. state department official said in Paris on Friday. PARIS (AFP)

  "I would describe the situation as one of continuing blockage and the continued eruption of violence in Lebanon … We regard Syria as directly responsible for this situation," said David Satterfield, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's representative for Iraq.

  "The role Syria has to play is very simple: to allow the Lebanese to proceed with free elections. It's not a complicated proposition," he said.  

Satterfield had talks with President Nicolas Sarkozy's foreign affairs advisor Jean-David Levitte and officials from the French foreign ministry. 

He said Damascus had taken action to reduce the number of anti-American insurgents passing into Iraq from Syria, but had done so mainly for its own internal reasons.

"These are dangerous individuals. They are individuals fundamentally threatening to Syria's interests as well. They are not good people to have in your country.

"Syria we believe did take certain steps (but) we do not believe the Syrians have taken any steps for the sake of Iraq to constrain this flow. Whatever they have done has been solely for the  regime's own security purposes," he said.

U.S. doubles its funds for U.N. Hariri tribunal
February 14, 2008

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States plans to double its funding of a U.N. tribunal on the killing three years ago of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Thursday.

Subject to congressional notification, Washington would raise its pledge to $14 million from $7 million to help fund the U.N. tribunal's one-year budget, Rice said in a statement issued to mark the anniversary of Hariri's murder on February 14, 2005.

"Lebanon, on this day of remembrance for former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and all those killed, injured or persecuted in the service of the Lebanese nation, the United States shares your sorrow, but also your hope," Rice said.

"Our commitment to you and your chosen government is unshakable. We and the international community will not rest until your calls for peace, justice and freedom have been answered," she added.

The United Nations has created a special tribunal to try those responsible for the assassination of Hariri, whose killing triggered international pressure that forced Syria to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon.

"We hope the tribunal will help deter further political assassinations, end an era of fear for Lebanese citizens and impunity for the perpetrators of these crimes, and help protect the sovereignty of Lebanon," Rice said.

U.N. investigators are also looking into other assassinations and bombings in the past three years that reflect Lebanon's lengthy conflict between the anti-Syrian government coalition and the opposition, which is led by the pro-Syrian Hezbollah group.

Syria has denied any involvement in the assassinations.

Lebanon's opposition and the governing coalition have been locked in a power struggle for 15 months that has paralyzed the government and left the country without a president since November.

(Reporting by Sue Pleming, editing by Patricia Zengerle)

Ban creates management team for Special Tribunal
Daily Star staff, Saturday, February 16, 2008

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has established a management committee of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon being set up to try those responsible for political killings, particularly the February 2005 car bombing in Beirut that killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 22 others, a statement issued by Ban's media office said on Thursday.

"The secretary general believes that this step, along with other steps announced in December of last year – the selection of the judges, the appointment of the prosecutor, the finalization of a headquarters agreement with the government of the Netherlands enabling the Tribunal to be based in that country, and agreement on a building near The Hague to house the Tribunal – are decisive landmarks in the process of making the Special Tribunal a reality," Ban's spokesperson said in a statement.

The committee, which will among other tasks provide advice and policy direction on all nonjudicial aspects of the operations of the Special Tribunal and review and approve its annual budget, is composed of the body's main donors, according to the statement.

The spokesperson for Ban also announced that the expected contributions to the Special Tribunal will meet the budgetary requirements for its establishment and the first 12 months of operations. Syrians are preparing to sue the United States for supplying weapons to Israel that later killed Syrians in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, said Syria's foreign minister, a day after Washington announced new sanctions against Damascus.

Speaking at a press conference with his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki, Walid Moallem promised that Syria would punish the U.S. for its decision to impose fresh sanctions against Syrian officials.

"This time I tell you we will punish the United States … there are scores of Syrians who became victims during the Israeli war against Lebanon, they will file lawsuits against America, who provided Israel with the weapons, he said.

President George W. Bush ordered new sanctions on Wednesday to punish Syria for allegedly trying to undermine stability in Iraq and undercut Lebanon's sovereignty and democracy.

Bush, in an executive order, said he was expanding sanctions against senior government officials in Syria and their associates deemed responsible for or to have benefited from public corruption.

President George W. Bush ordered new sanctions on Wednesday to punish Syria for allegedly trying to undermine stability in Iraq and undercut Lebanon's sovereignty and democracy.

Bush, in an executive order, said he was expanding sanctions against senior government officials in Syria and their associates deemed responsible for or to have benefited from public corruption.

Damascus: Syrians to sue U.S. for selling weapons to Israel

Imad Mughnieh's body may be back in Beirut and the tangled wreckage of his bombed car towed away by the police but the shattering fallout of the Hezbollah commander's assassination in Syria was still reverberating through the increasingly isolated regime in Damascus yesterday.

The administration, already under pressure from an international investigation into a truck bomb that killed Rafiq Haririexactly three years ago, faced fresh calls from President Bush for tighter sanctions for hosting one of the world's most wanted terrorists.

Analysts said that President Assad of Syria will be under even more pressure to explain to Iran how he let one of its key assets be murdered yards from a base of the Iranian Mukhabarat [intelligence service].

Mughnieh's killing was another blow for Mr al-Assad. Mr Hariri's murder was widely blamed on Damascus and led to protests that forced Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon, where they had played a dominant role for three decades.

That blow to Syria's prestige was compounded last summer by an Israeli airstrike which destroyed what some analysts believe may have been a nascent nuclear facility or chemical weapons plants deep inside the country. Then, as now, Syria appeared confused and weak, its stunned silence gradually giving way to contradictory denials from various official sources.

“In terms of military deterrence Syria has taken a huge hit and they have to make it back. In this region you have to look tough,” said Meir Javendafar, an expert on Iran at the Middle East Economic and Political Analysis Company in Tel Aviv.

Sensing that weakness, Washington was quick to pile on the pressure. Mr Bush ordered expanded financial sanctions against senior Syrian officials whom he accused of actions that “undermine efforts to stabilise Iraq”, where Syria is accused of sending Islamist extremists and weapons. He also charged Syria, a major backer of the Shia militia Hezbollah, with meddling in Lebanon and fermenting problems for Beirut's pro-Western Government.

“I wish to emphasise … my ongoing concern over the destabilising role Syria continues to play in Lebanon, including its efforts to obstruct, through intimidation and violence, Lebanon's democratic processes,” Mr Bush said.

The most intense pressure is likely to come from Iran, which lost, in Mughnieh, a vital asset in its covert, anti-Israeli and anti-American network. The fact that the hit took place in Damascus may raise suspicions that elements of the Syrian security apparatus were infiltrated or even turned.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Thursday threatened to retaliate against Israel for the killing of militant commander Imad Mughniyah Tuesday, saying "his blood will lead to the elimination of Israel."

Mughniyah, the deputy secretary general of the Lebanon-based guerilla group, was killed in a bomb blast in a residential neighborhood in Damascus late Tuesday. Israel denied involvement.

Nasrallah also vowed to strike Israeli targets abroad after accusing Israel of taking the fight beyond Lebanese borders by killing Mughniyah in Syria.

"You have killed Hajj Imad outside the natural battlefield," Nasrallah said, addressing Israel and referring to Hezbollah's longtime contention it only fights Israel within Lebanon and along their common border.

"You have crossed the borders," Nasrallah said in the fiery eulogy at Mughniyah's funeral in south Beirut. "With this murder, its timing, location and method – Zionists, if you want this kind of open war, let the whole world listen: Let this war be open."

"Like all human beings we have a sacred right to defend ourselves," said Nasrallah, speaking in a videotaped message broadcast over a giant screen at the ceremony in a Hezbollah stronghold. "We will do all that takes to defend our country and people."

Syria says will prove who killed Hezbollah leader
Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:35pm EST
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis

DAMASCUS, Feb 14 (Reuters) – Syria will soon present "irrefutable" proof of who was behind the assassination of Hezbollah commander Imad Moughniyah, the foreign minister said on Thursday, hinting that Israel was responsible for the attack.

"As a state, we will irrefutably prove the party involved in this crime and who stands behind it. An investigation is ongoing," Walid al-Moualem told reporters.

"We hope that you will soon hear the results of this mighty effort," Moualem said after meeting his Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki, who came from Beirut where he attended Moughniyah's funeral.

Asked whether Tuesday's killing in a district of the Syrian capital swarming with security would undermine chances for peace with Israel, Moualem said the assassination killed "any effort to revive the peace process".

"Whoever wants peace does not commit terrorism, whoever wants peace does not lay siege to Gaza with a million and half Palestinians struggling for the minimum to survive," he said….

Washington has since stepped up pressure on the Damascus government and announced this week preparations to expand financial sanctions against Syrian officials and their associates.

Moualem said Syria will respond "in kind" to the latest U.S. escalation. He did not elaborate.

Hizbullah leader’s death in Syria could trigger retaliation
By Nicholas Blanford | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
February 14, 2008

Beirut, Lebanon
A shadowy senior Hizbullah commander, thought to have masterminded spectacular terrorist attacks in the 1980s, was killed Tuesday in a Damascus car bombing that will almost certainly trigger a retaliation from the militant Shiite group.

Imad Mughnieh’s legendary militant credentials, which are thought to include attacks on the US Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut, made him a prime American and Israeli target for decades and a significant figure in the arsenal of Hizbullah, the Islamist political and guerrilla force that Washington calls a terrorist organization. Analysts say that with Mr. Mughnieh out of the picture, Hizbullah has lost a key asset in its ability to strike in Lebanon or the region.

“This is as big a blow as it gets for Hizbullah security. It’s even bigger than killing [Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan] Nasrallah,” says Magnus Ranstorp, a Hizbullah specialist and research director at the Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the Swedish National Defense College in Stockholm.

Mughnieh, in his mid-40s, was accused of killing more Americans than any other militant before the 9/11 attacks, and the bombings and kidnappings he is alleged to have organized are credited with ending American intervention in Lebanon under the Reagan administration.

He is believed to have overseen the April 1983 suicide bombing of the US Embassy in Beirut and, six months later, the twin suicide truck-bomb attacks against the US Marine barracks and the French paratroop headquarters in Beirut, acts that killed nearly 400 people.

As of Wednesday morning, no one had claimed responsibility for his death. But many in Lebanon and Syria blamed Israel, who is believed to have carried out these sorts of targeted assassinations in Beirut and Damascus before.

The late-night blast Tuesday tore apart Mughnieh’s car, which was parked near an Iranian school in the Damascus suburb of Kfar Soussa. Syrian authorities have only confirmed that one person died in the blast.

Mohammed Habash, a Syrian Islamist lawmaker, said that Damascus needed more time to conduct an investigation before commenting publicly. “Israel is always aggressive and doesn’t respect international laws and norms and it has proved in the past that it doesn’t respect countries’ sovereignty, whether in Palestine, Lebanon, or Syria.”

Hizbullah confirmed Mughnieh’s death early Wednesday morning. “With all due pride, we declare a great jihadist leader of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon joining the martyrs,” said a statement carried by Hizbullah’s Al Manar television channel.

“This is a personal loss for Nasrallah,” says Robert Baer, an ex-Central Intelligence Agency officer who tracked Mughnieh in the 1980s. “[Nasrallah and Mughnieh] are basically the ones who made Hizbullah, in the sense of driving the West out [of Lebanon] in the 1980s, then turning that power against the Israelis” occupying south Lebanon.

Israel denied responsibility for Mughnieh’s death, but Israeli officials greeted his demise with joy. Danny Yatom, former director of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, called the assassination “a great achievement for the free world in its fight against terror.”

Analysts say that a retaliation from Hizbullah is inevitable. When Israel assassinated Sheikh Abbas Mussawi, then Hizbullah leader, in February 1992, the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires was blown up a month later, killing 29 people in a revenge operation alleged to have been planned by Mughnieh himself.

“This is something that Hizbullah cannot let pass. Mughnieh was too much of a symbol,” says Timur Goksel, lecturer on international relations in Beirut and a former United Nations official in south Lebanon. “I don’t think Hizbullah will go for a big bombing, probably an assassination of a high profile target.”

Mughnieh’s death comes amid rising tensions in Lebanon as the country prepares to mark the third anniversary of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination in a Valentine’s Day truck bomb blast in 2005. Hizbullah is organizing a large funeral for Mughnieh Thursday afternoon, even as a huge turnout is expected in Beirut to commemorate Mr. Hariri’s death.

While Israel and the US top the list of suspects behind Mughnieh’s death, some Lebanese were quick to point a finger of blame at Damascus.

“It could have been the Syrians,” says Walid Jumblatt, an outspoken member of the anti-Syrian March 14 parliamentary coalition. “Damascus is well protected, and I don’t think somebody else could do it.”

Some analysts suggest that Damascus may have seen advantage in delivering up Mughnieh to his enemies to curry favor with the US at a time when Syria is under intense international pressure. While America’s $25 million reward for Mughnieh is a potential motive, the imminent establishment of an international tribunal to judge Hariri’s killers also may have spurred Damascus’s leadership to cooperate with the Americans over Mughnieh. Syria is widely suspected of involvement in Hariri’s death.

Mughnieh was born in 1962 in the southern Lebanese village of Teir Dibba. He grew up in Beirut’s southern suburbs where as a teenager he joined Force 17, the elite unit of the Fatah faction headed by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

After Israeli forces expelled the Palestinians from Beirut during the invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Mughnieh joined a group of Shiite Islamists then coalescing under Iran’s guidance in the Bekaa Valley. The group became Hizbullah and Mughnieh, despite his youth, was considered one of its most capable figures.

In addition to the 1983 attacks in Beirut, in 1985 Mughnieh led the hijacking of a TWA airliner in Beirut in which a US Navy diver was killed. He is also alleged to have run the networks of kidnappers who snatched dozens of foreigners in Beirut in the mid- to late 1980s.

“The man was a murderer and murdered people who had nothing to do with Lebanon,” says Mr. Baer, the former CIA officer. “But at the same time, he believed he was fighting an anti-Colonial war. He was a disciplined soldier in a manageable war, unlike Al Qaeda, which is completely unmanageable.”
  • Julien Barnes-Dacey contributed reporting from Damascus, Syria.

Imad Mughniyah, who was assassinated Tuesday in Syria, was a man of the Middle East's shadows. He was a terrorist mastermind behind political causes. For him, though, it was as much about the fight as the cause. He shunned the light. He never gave public speeches or lectures. He is not known to have given any press interviews, not even to sympathetic or politically aligned journalists. Western reporters who sought the Lebanese Shi'ite group Hizballah's help to arrange a rendezvous were politely but sternly advised not to go there.

So, did the CIA or some other American intelligence agency finally do Mughniyah in? Everyone, including some of his friends, may have had a motive.

U.S. officials told TIME today that Mughniyah had traveled to Iraq to train the Shi'ite warlord Moqtada al Sadr’s Mahdi Army. Mughniyah, says one American official, was Hizballah’s "chief of external operations" and "considered the key to their military activity." U.S. officials acknowledge that American spy agencies had intensely been tracking Mughniyah the past five years as he moved between Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut.

Apart from his ties to Hizballah, Mughniyah was also believed to have worked closely with Iran. A U.S. official confirmed reports that in 2006, Mughniyah accompanied Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on a trip to Syria and met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

In the 1980s, he had been accused of everything from bombing the U.S. embassy and U.S. Marines barracks in Beirut to the kidnappings of American journalists, academics and the Beirut CIA station chief. More recently, some have claimed that Mughniyeh collaborated with Osama bin Laden. After al-Qaeda's top guns, Mughniyah has the highest price on his head of any terrorist wanted by the FBI — $5 million.

Hizballah immediately blamed Israel for Mughniyah's assassination in Damascus, Syria, Tuesday night. Israel's Mossad spy agency is a reasonable suspect, given Israel's determination to bring him to justice for his alleged involvement in the 1990s bombings in Argentina of the Israeli embassy and a Jewish cultural center. Israeli intelligence has a good history of eliminating terrorist masterminds, even when they are located in unfriendly Arab capitals.

A U.S. official told TIME that Mughniyah had been linked to the 2002 discovery of 50 tons of weapons by Israeli Navy commandos who intercepted a freighter called Karine A in the Red Sea. More recently, said the U.S. official, Mughniyah was connected to the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers that led to the July 2006 invasion of Lebanon.

The Israeli Prime Minister's office issued a statement denying any involvement in Mughniyah's killing. A senior ex-intelligence official told TIME: "The Americans wanted him, so did the Saudis and the Lebanese Christians. We weren't the only ones." Still, the former official, who asked not to be identified, has been hunting Mughniyah for over 20 years and described him as "a fanatical killer." "It was as if a big stone had been removed from my heart," he said.

In the John Le Carre world of Middle East terrorism and politics, however, it's impossible to rule out the wildest of conspiracy theories, including that Mughniyah's friends in Syria or Iran may have found his continued existence to be an inconvenience. Or, they may have believed it was politically useful to demonstrate that they can be relied on to control terrorism in the Middle East — as long as the U.S. doesn't try to go after the regimes in Damascus or Tehran. With reporting by Aaron J. Klein/Jerusalem

Imad Mughniyeh: Hezbollah's Phantom Killed
By Ali Nourizadeh
Asharq Alawsat
13/02/2008

….Born in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre, in July 1962, to farmer parents, Mughniyeh grew up with two brothers, Jihad and Fouad, and later moved to the capital’s southern suburbs, where he attended school. He spent a year studying at the American University of Beirut.

Mughniyeh later joined “Force 17”, a special military unit that was tasked with protecting Fatah’s leadership in Lebanon (Yasser Arafat, Abu Jihad and Abu Iyad) and became a veteran sniper. After the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Mughniyeh oversaw the transfer of weapons from Fatah and the PLO to the nascent Lebanese resistance, represented by Amal and Hezbollah.

Following the three-month siege of Beirut and the PLO’s departure from Lebanon to Tunisia, Mughniyeh joined the Amal movement and later Hezbollah, at the same time as the party’s current leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Anis Nacchache, a Lebanese who had led a failed assassination attempt on the former Iranian Prime Minister Shapour Bakhtiar in Paris, in 1980- after he announced his opposition to Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime- first introduced Mughniyeh to senior officials in the Iranian embassy in Beirut.

According to Abu Wafa, a former leader in the revolutionary guards, Mughniyeh stood out from other enthusiastic young men. On his first trip to Iran, in the early 1980s, Mughniyeh proved his military capabilities and excelled in his training. After three months of basic training, he traveled with other Lebanese Shiaa young men to the Iranian front and took part in several daring operations behind Iraqi lines, according to Iranian military leaders.

Imad then joined Hezbollah and was appointed by, Ahmad Motevaselian, a leader in the revolutionary guards in Beirut at the time, as the Party of God’s intelligence chief. His leading role in three operations made Mughniyeh’s name on the top of most-wanted lists in the United States and France: the bombing of the US embassy in the Lebanese capital in April 1983, in which 63 US and Lebanese individuals were killed, the bombing of the US Marines barracks in Beirut, in which 241 died and the bombing of the French barracks in the Bekaa Valley, which killed 58 French soldiers.

Mughniyeh was also tasked with protecting the life of Sheikh Hassan Fadlallah, the spiritual leader of Hezbollah, but with his exceptional abilities in field command and leadership, he became the head of the party’s special operations branch.

Mughniyeh disappeared from view for two years and re-emerged on board a kidnapped TWA flight in Beirut international airport in 1985, where he killed one of the passengers, a US Marine.

That same year, a car bomb exploded in front of Fadlallah’s house, killing 62, including Imad’s brother Jihad.

Mughniyeh also participated in the attempt to release a relative who was part of a group known as “Dawa 17” imprisoned in Kuwait after attacks on the US and Kuwaiti embassies. The men were released after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. He later kidnapped several westerners and released some of them, in the wake of secret negotiations with the Reagan administration.

According to an Iranian source, who met Mughniyeh on more than one occasion in Iran, the elusive figure had undergone plastic surgery to change his facial features in 1990. He then returned to Beirut incognito, under a new name and a false identity, with an Iranian diplomatic passport. Using several forged Lebanese, Syrian, Iranian and Pakistani passports, Mughniyeh successfully planned and executed a number of terrorist operations in Argentina in the mid 1990s, including the bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires in 1994, killing 85.

During his constant traveling, Mughniyeh met Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri in Sudan, where al Qaeda’s leader had established training centers in farms, while the revolutionary guards were also active in the country, under the guise of “Jihad for construction” organization, which was responsible for building roads and installations. When Mughniyeh’s cover was blown, he returned to Iran where he underwent a second operation and completely changed his look.

Between 1997 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Mughniyeh traveled between Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon, Pakistan and northern Iraq, and assisted al Qaeda leaders to cross from Afghanistan to Iran. He then played a role in moving fighters loyal to bin Laden from Afghanistan to Iraq, through Iranian territory, by exploiting his relationships with the revolutionary guards, al Zawahiri, Saad bin Laden and Mohammed al Islambouli, whose brother assassinated the Egyptian President Anwar Sadat.

In 2005, he was tasked with organizing relations between the different Shiaa armed factions in southern Iraq. Mughniyeh then became the field supervisor of the revolutionary guard’s intelligence bureau in the region. That same year, he traveled to Lebanon through Syria, accompanied by Iranian officials, under the name of Sayyid Mehdi Hashemi, an Iranian national with a diplomatic passport.

In early 2006, reports indicated Mughniyeh had been seen in the city of Basra, where he is alleged to have been facilitating the entry of Mehdi army fighters into Iran, to take part in military training. In April, Mughniyeh was said to have returned to Lebanon where he held senior positions in Hezbollah's intelligence services and, according to Israeli sources, planned the operation to kidnap Israeli soldiers, based on orders from Iran’s revolutionary guards.

Analysis: Duet in Damascus – is it déja vu?
By AMIR MIZROCH

"Gathering intelligence in Shiite neighborhoods is complex, of course, the nature of the neighborhood almost didn't allow them to walk around on foot and look at things, neither were they able to drive around in a rented car. One of the buildings in the street matched the description given to them in an intelligence briefing by a local agent. After several turns in the area at different hours of the day, a car that was also seen at his office was noticed parked outside the building on the residential street. The next day, when they waited for him to leave the neighborhood in the early morning hours, they identified the man himself and his car. Now was the time to move. He finished assembling the bomb quickly and lifted it carefully – nobody enjoys walking around with a kilo of explosives in his hands. He quickly moved towards the car and crawled underneath it, took out the tools from his pocket, and placed the bomb under the chassis." (Duet in Beirut, Mishka Ben-David, 2002)

Mishka Ben David
Photo: Courtesy

No need to wait for the book on Imad Mughniyeh's demise in Damascus. It may already have been written.

Duet in Beirut by former Mossad operative Mishka Ben-David is a work of fiction, but owes its wealth of detail to the author's intelligence experience. Published in Hebrew six years ago, it describes a Mossad hit team traveling to Beirut, stalking the head of Hizbullah's foreign terror department and assassinating him in a car bombing. Perhaps unfortunately for Mughniyeh, it was not translated into Arabic; had he read it, he might have taken greater precautions. ….. (Continue)

Bush, in an executive order, said he was expanding penalties against senior government officials in Syria and their associates deemed to be responsible for — or to have benefited from — public corruption. The order did not specifically name any officials.

Bush signed the order a day after Imad Mughniyeh, one of the world's most wanted and elusive terrorists, was killed in a car bombing in Syria nearly 15 years after dropping from sight. The one-time Hezbollah security chief was the suspected mastermind of attacks that killed hundreds of Americans in Lebanon and of the brutal kidnappings of Westerners.

"The world is a better place without this man in it," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. "One way or the other, he was brought to justice."

The White House said Wednesday's executive order built on one Bush issued in May 2004 that banned all U.S. exports to Syria except for food and medicine. His earlier action followed long-standing complaints that the Middle Eastern nation was supporting terrorism and undermining U.S. efforts in Iraq.

The 2004 order also banned flights to and from the United States; authorized the Treasury Department to freeze assets of Syrian nationals and entities involved in terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, occupation of Lebanon or terrorism in Iraq; and restricted banking relations between U.S. banks and the Syrian national bank.

The U.S. had complained that Syria was supporting militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah and failing to stop guerrillas from crossing the border into Iraq.

A White House statement on Wednesday said Syria was undermining efforts to stabilize Iraq and allowing Syrian territory to be used for that purpose.

Syria's government "continues to pursue other activities that deny the Syrian people the political freedoms and economic prosperity they deserve, and that undercut the peace and stability of the region," according to the statement.

"Syria continues to undermine Lebanon's sovereignty and democracy, imprison democracy advocates, curtail human rights and sponsor and harbor terrorists," it said. "The United States will continue to stand with the people of Syria and the region as they seek to exercise their rights peacefully and to build a brighter future." Lebanon is gripped by turmoil as Syrian-supported Hezbollah struggles for power with the U.S.-backed government.

Just last June, Bush signed a proclamation barring U.S. entry to people it says are undermining the stability of Lebanon and its government.

Syria held political and military sway in tiny neighboring Lebanon for some three decades. Besides armed troops on Beirut streets, Syrian intelligence forces were often a shadowy but pervasive force in Lebanese daily life.

See interesting discussion of who may be behind the murder, here. 

Hezbollah Commander, Wanted by U.S., Killed in Syria (Update 3)
By Massoud A. Derhally
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=a5Jk5Qabmo9k&refer=africa

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) — Imad Mughniyeh, a commander of Lebanon's Hezbollah militia wanted by the U.S., was killed by a car bomb in Damascus, the Shiite Muslim group said.

“The martyr Mughniyeh was killed late yesterday evening'' in the Syrian capital, Ghalib Abu Zainab, a member of the Political Council of Hezbollah, said in a telephone interview from Beirut today.

Mughniyeh was indicted in the U.S. for the 1985 hijacking of a TWA Corp. airliner, during which an American Navy diver was killed. Israel has accused him of involvement in the 1990s bombings of the Israeli Embassy and a Jewish center in Argentina that killed more than 120 people.

The U.S. also wanted Mughniyeh for the April 18, 1983, bombing of the American Embassy in Beirut, al-Arabiya television said. Seventeen U.S. officials, including Robert Ames, the Central Intelligence Agency's top Middle East analyst, and other CIA staffers were among the 63 people who died in that attack.

In a statement, Hezbollah said Mughniyeh was killed “by the Israeli Zionists.'' His funeral will be held tomorrow, it said. Mughniyeh was 45, according to al-Arabiya.

“There are so many countries and intelligence organizations that had an account to settle with this guy that it could be a great many people,'' Yossi Alpher, a former official with Israel's Mossad intelligence agency and one-time adviser to former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, said in an interview today. “Anybody who has an interest in stopping global terrorism should be satisfied that he's removed from the scene.''

Israeli Denial

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office said in a pager message, “Israel rejects the attempts being made by terrorist groups that try to tie Israel to the incident.''

Mughniyeh, who also went by the name of El-Haj Radwan, was on the FBI most-wanted terrorists list, with a $5 million reward for information leading to his capture or conviction.

“It's a big blow and very significant blow no matter who did it,'' Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, said in a telephone interview from Beirut.

“This was done in Damascus,'' he said, adding that, if the Hezbollah commander was killed by Syria, “then it's enormously significant and, if not, then who was able to penetrate Damascus so coolly and comfortably?''

Mughniyeh was a hard target and his killing could be part of a deal between the U.S. and Syria, Salem said. “He was one of the figures that was always asked for by name by the U.S. If, and it's a big if, it's part of a Syrian agenda, it means that the U.S. and Syria must be making progress and there is some deal- making on Lebanon.''

`Unrealistic'

Abdel Halim Khaddam, a former Syrian vice president and once a right-hand man to late President Hafez al-Assad, said he doubted the likelihood of such a deal.

“Such a deal is unrealistic in this day and age,'' Khaddam said in an interview today from his home in Paris.

The site where Mughniyeh was killed is in a security area, in close proximity to an Iranian school and the offices of the Syrian intelligence services and military intelligence unit, Khaddam said.

Mughniyeh's death comes before a rally tomorrow that is expected to draw tens of thousands of Lebanese to central Beirut to mark the third anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

United Nations investigators said Lebanese and Syrian intelligence officials, including the brother and brother-in-law of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, were implicated in the truck bombing that killed Hariri. Syria has denied any involvement.

`Asserting Authority'

“There seems to be a steady attempt to push Syria, and right now the United States and the West has very little leverage over Syria, and I think this is frustrating everybody in Washington as they see Syria asserting its authority in Lebanon,'' said Josh Landis, a specialist on Syria and director of the Center for Peace Studies at the University of Oklahoma. “They've run out of tools and the only thing Bush can say now is that he's going to get a fully funded investigation'' into Hariri's assassination.

The fact that Mughniyeh was killed just before Hariri's anniversary “means that there could be demonstrations by Hezbollah supporters today and tomorrow,'' Ted Karasik, senior political scientist at the Rand Corp. consulting company, said in an interview today. “He was killed in order to ignite confrontation on streets.''

Lebanon has been without a head of state since Nov. 23, when Syrian-backed Emile Lahoud left office at the end of his term. The dispute over the post has threatened to ignite civil strife in the country. The crisis is the worst since the end of Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war. Lebanese lawmakers have failed to elect a president on 14 occasions.

To contact the reporter on this story: Massoud A. Derhally in Amman, Jordan, at [email protected] .

Profile: Imad Mughniyeh
13 February 2008
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2008. All rights reserved

Hizbullah's latest 'martyr' has been on the FBI's most wanted list since the 1980s and is accused by Israel of masterminding the 2006 war in Lebanon

Imad Mughniyeh, killed by a car bomb in Damascus on Tuesday night, was a top military leader of the Lebanese Hizbullah organisation, which is mourning him today as a "martyred" hero of its 20-year campaign against Israel and the US.

Mughniyeh has been on the FBI's most wanted list since the 1980s, long before al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden became bywords for terrorism. Working with a shadowy Shia group known as Islamic Jihad, he was blamed for the kidnapping of western hostages in Beirut – including the Briton Terry Waite – and a 1983 bombing that killed 240 US marines in the Lebanese capital.

In 1984, Mughniyeh was said to have been behind the kidnapping and killing of the CIA station chief in Beirut, William Buckley. From the start he was linked closely to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, still Hizbullah's strategic partner. He spent much of the 1990s in Tehran. He was indicted in the US for the 1985 hijacking to Beirut of a TWA airliner in which a US navy diver was killed.

Western intelligence agencies have described Mughniyeh as head of the jihad council within Hizbullah's ruling shura council.

Israel saw him as the terrorist "mastermind" behind the planning for Hizbullah's July 2006 war with the Jewish state, which began with the audacious cross-border kidnapping of Israeli soldiers the organisation hoped to swap for Lebanese prisoners.

It was no surprise that Hizbullah blamed Israel's Mossad secret service for the killing, nor that the Syrian government, doubtless embarrassed by the attack in the heart of Damascus, remained silent.

If Israel was behind the assassination – and it has strongly rejected any involvement – it will be seen as a deliberate signal that it could target leaders of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, which has offices in the Syrian capital.

Another possibility is that the bombing was the work of agents linked to the pro-western Beirut government, which is at odds with the Shia organisation and its Syrian backers. The CIA has been pursuing Mughniyeh for years.

The killing electrified Beirut, already tense on the eve of Thursday's mass rally commemorating Rafiq al-Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister, whose assassination three years ago was widely blamed on Syria.

Israeli leaders were furious last month when Hizbullah's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, made the macabre boast that the group was holding the body parts of several Israeli soldiers. Nasrallah has always claimed that Hizbullah won the 2006 war, taunting the Israelis at every opportunity.

"Israel had an account to settle with Mughniyeh," Eyal Zisser, an Israeli academic expert, told al-Jazeera TV. But he noted that the Lebanese fugitive was wanted by 42 other countries. Israel killed Nasrallah's predecessor, Abbas Musawi, in 1992.

Mughniyeh, aged around 46 and reportedly known to his followers as Haj Radwan, was rumoured to have had plastic surgery and to have been living underground in Beirut's southern suburbs, Hizbullah's stronghold.

Mughniyeh's brother was killed in a similar attack in Beirut in 1994, though reports at the time suggested Imad was the real target.

In this murky area hard facts are more difficult to come by than speculation and misinformation, but some reports have suggested Mughniyeh was in charge of Hizbullah's operations abroad, including attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Latin America in the 1990s.

Explosion Kills 1 in Syria's Capital
By ALBERT AJI

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — An explosion late Tuesday in a residential neighborhood in Syria's capital killed at least one person, destroyed a parked car and shattered windows in nearby buildings, witnesses and a news report said.

The cause of the explosion, which occurred about 10:45 p.m. in the upscale Kafar Soussa area, was not immediately known. Security forces sealed off the area and removed the destroyed car.

Al-Jazeera, the pan-Arab satellite television station, reported that at least one person was killed in the explosion.

A neighbor saw a body covered with a white sheet on the ground, the neighbor said on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. The identity of the victim was not immediately known.

Security forces kept reporters and onlookers at a distance from the blast.

Calls for comment from Syria's Interior Ministry, which is responsible for security forces, went unanswered late Tuesday night.

Residents, some in their pajamas, gathered to inspect the damage, carefully stepping around shards of glass and debris. Three other cars parked nearby were also damaged, their windows shattered and doors blown out.

There are no government buildings located in the mostly residential neighborhood.

According to the independent Syria-news website, a silver Mitsubishi Pajero car exploded in the neighborhood of an Iranian school in Kafer Suseh and damaged five nearby cars and surrounding building. An Iranian diplomat here confirmed to Xinhua the explosion near the Iranian school which teaches religion to Iranian students.

But the explosion did not targeted the Iranian school, said the diplomat. The Syrian authorities gave no official confirmation.

Kafer Suseh is a large residential area in Damascus which houses dozens of apartment buildings constructed in recent years, a big shopping mall and a main Syrian intelligence office.

Some sources are trying to make a link to Islamist extremists who may be trying to target Iran. The point to the presence of an Iranian school in the neighborhood and the planned visit on Wednesday of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to discuss the political crisis in neighbouring Lebanon. But the attack did not seem to target the school.

The following interview with Paul Salem, (copied below), will bring tears to your eyes. Whether the tears are from laughter or despair will depend on where you stand, but for most readers of SC, it will likely produce a combination of both. (Thanks Q.N.)

The likelihood that George W. Bush's freedom agenda would actually bear fruit in the Middle East was practically zero from the beginning. Not only were its neocon architects largely ignorant of Middle East realities, but the hypocrisy and brutal cynicism with which they pursued it doomed it from the beginning. Freedom became a thinly veiled word for imposing US interests on the region. Democracy was used as a weapon to punish enemies and reward friends of Washington.

The notion that Lebanon could be pried away from Syria without offering Damascus either security or the return of the Golan was a mirage. Some allowed themselves to dream that regime-change in Syria would bring Lebanon's release and rebirth, but the error of this speculation was revealed as soon as things began to go wrong in Iraq, which was almost immediately. Regime change turned out to be the wrong way to bring progress to the region. No one was going to risk it again in Syria.

It is clear that the Levant's future hinges on establishing a spirit of compromise. This is the lesson of the failure of force in Iraq. Compromise means satisfying the minimal terms demanded by Syria and the Lebanese opposition. Refusing to do so will have grave consequences for Lebanon, its neighbors and the United States. Some Lebanese seem to believe that if Syria fails they will be okay, but this was nonsense to begin with. Several prominent Americans gave occasional endorsement to this dream, further convincing Lebanese that it could become reality. But the neocon project was ill conceived. The Syrian regime turned out to have a better grasp of the "new Middle Eastern realities" than most in Washington.

Washington is still ignoring the lessons of Iraq. It believes that Syria will give up control of Lebanon and its alliance with Hizbullah in order to get back to ground zero or where it was in 2003 before Washington invaded Iraq. In other words, Damascus will accept France's and Washington's dictates in order to have the Hariri investigation halted, have economic sanctions lifted, and have the West welcome it back into its warm embrace, as was done to Libya.

This is silly. It makes no sense for Syria to accept this bargain now. Diplomatic isolation has failed. Economic sanctions have failed. The Hariri investigation has failed. Yes, both France and the US are pretending that they can reheat it, but only a few wishful thinking Lebanese seem to believe this. The investigation could provide no proof of Syrian involvement when it was led by an investigator who was salavating to nail Syria. We are now well into the tenure of our third investigator and we have heard not a peep from him. Did Syria dodge a bullet? Was there no bullet to dodge? We are likely not to know.

At any rate, the wishful thinking in Lebanon persists. Hizbullah is not going away. It endures for a reason. The reasons for Syria's enmity toward Israel and willingness to invest in organizations that harm it still exist. The reason why Syria will not abandon control over Lebanon's destiny many and compelling.

Saudi Arabia is dumping another billion dollars into Lebanon's central bank. Moody's has downgraded Lebanese debt and Lebanese banks follow state into sinkhole of lower credit rating. Michael Young explains why he is peeved with French dimplomacy that failed to liberate his country. Randa Takieddine gives her take on why French diplomacy failed.  

Worthwhile interview with Paul Salem:

NOW Lebanon: How do Sunday’s events change the political situation?

Paul Salem: Well, I think it didn’t come alone. In the last two weeks, there’s been a bombing of an embassy car, the assassination on Friday [of ISF Officer Wissam Eid] and then the events on Sunday. Previously, François al-Hajj. One pattern that seems to be emerging is that since Michel Sleiman became a serious candidate for the presidency, somebody’s been out to get the army and security forces. One aspect of what happened Sunday was making strong statements against the army, which also seemed a bit surprising to me, and seemed to indicate a kind of agenda.

…

NOW: What changed about Sleiman that made the two sides change their minds about him?

Salem: I’ve been trying to figure it out. Part of the analysis might be that after Nahr al-Bared, he started taking himself more seriously, him and his team. It was the first sustained, long battle the Lebanese army has fought, really. [It received] total support in Lebanon, total support in the Arab world, total support in every single capital around the world. The army hung together, fought well, without much equipment, technology or training, but they hung together; good esprit de corps and good leadership is the most important thing. Beirut airport, receiving US military planes? Under Syria’s watch? This is big stuff. And then for the Pentagon to say, basically, “We’re okay with this guy,” and for the Russian’s to say, “We’re okay with this guy,” he began to feel he is quite a guy…

This is not the first time. The killing of Hajj was partly to say, “Even if you become president, don’t think you’re going to do anything,” to make it clear that Emile Lahoud is the model, not Napoleon.

NOW: Is Sleiman still a viable consensus candidate?

Salem: I think he is. In terms of public discourse, he is the candidate. I don’t think anybody will come out soon and say he’s not. On the other hand, it’s quite obvious that he’s not really the candidate that March 8 wants. But I think he will remain the name in the game, because part of the game is postponing. …

NOW: Do you think the crisis will last that long?

Salem: Yes. The crisis really started in 2006, the paralysis. The presidential vacuum was just one element of a general vacuum. It just completed the picture. If you look at the basic facts, the strategic political situation, since November of 2006, has been no go, no deal; “You either give us what we want or we’ll wait until 2009.” And that’s actually what Nasrallah said in 2006. He said, “We’ll wait.” That’s what Aoun has said many times, because in 2009, the term of parliament will be over, so there’s no longer the majority. Because there’s no parliament, and Bush would no longer be around, they would hope that whoever is in the White House would not care that much about Lebanon, and they could just go about and do what they want.

NOW: Syria was originally on board with the Arab initiative, at least on paper. What happened?

Salem: This is an old game. Syria has been the black sheep of the family and has played that role at least since the late 1970s [when it was] allied with Iran against Iraq, and the whole world supported Iraq. The Saudis got pissed off at the Syrians and Egypt got pissed off at the Syrians. That’s the way it’s been, but as long as Syria has Lebanon, is allied with Iran and has influence with the Palestinians, that’s fine. It keeps Egypt and Saudi Arabia at bay.

Nor is it bad for Iran, because Iran is very worried that Syria will make friends with Egypt and Saudi Arabia one day, join the Arab fold, make peace with Israel and be the darling of the United States like Sadat did, like King Hussein did, like all the Arabs do. He’s the last guy they have. Well, now they have Iraq.

They don’t want them to be too happy with the Arabs, either. So they say, “Forget the Arabs, we’ll help you out. If you get too close to the Arabs, we’ll be pretty pissed off.”

NOW: Then why would the Arab leaders go through the motions if Syria was going to back out anyway?

Salem: Well, look what happened before. The plan was for March 14 to use the half-plus-one to elect a March 14 guy. That was the plan, and they backed down from that. Then they backed down from all of their own candidates, then they started discussing other candidates, which was already a big climb down for Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the US, Jordan, etc. Then they finally said, “What the hell, we’ll take your candidate. That’s got to work,” because they all want to coax Syria away from Iran. “So we’ll take your candidate, but help us out and well be friends.”

And then the Syrians said, “No, you’re being so compromising and nice that the threat must be over. If you’re offering us this much now, then you’ll offer us much more six months from now, or a year from now.” This has been their bargaining style for decades, this is how they operate. It’s like bargaining in a bazaar… And they know that the Americans are going to come back to them and that the Saudis are going to come back to them, because there’s nowhere else to go. They hold enough of the cards to be indispensible. So the Saudis, the Egyptians and the Americans will walk away from the store, but they’re coming back. So we’ve ended the confrontation, and we’ve now begun bargaining.

The US approach to bargaining is, “Hi, I’m Bob. Let’s shake on it and make a deal, and we’re done.” That’s not the Syrian or Iranian style. You want to make a deal, okay, we’ll start bargaining; we’ll have coffee and talk. We’ll go and come back for a long time. And Bush and Sarkozy get all upset, but this is normal. They’re bargaining. They’re just not getting what they want, so they’ll wait.

[Read the rest]

The Israeli strike on Syria has become all about stopping missile technology transfer from North Korea to Syria and Iran.

Jay Solomon in today's article, North Korea Pact Could Hinge on Syria (copied below), has not come up with much to counter Seymour Hersh's latest New Yorker article: A Strike in the Dark, which argues that there is no evidence for Syria developing nuclear weapons, despite considerable bluster and Israel's strike on a Euphrates installation September last. Solomon, who is usually excellent, has to recycle three month old quotes on Syria, making them sound new.

[Addendum (later in the day): Jay Solomon pointed out to me that my criticism is "lame" because the point of his article is not to counter Hersh, who he doesn't mention, but to explain how the six-party talks are stalled because of the Syria connection. I apologize and thank Jay for setting me straight.]

Hersh argues that Syria is pushing ahead with better missile technology, rather than going nuclear, something it knows perfectly well will excite Israeli bombing raids.

What Solomon does add of value is that the US-led six-country negotiating process with North Korea is stalling over the issue of exports to Syria. American hawks want Korea to fess up to all cooperation with Syria, especially cooperation on missiles.

Something that Solomon doesn't explain is whether North Korea is obliged to divulge regular military cooperation as well as nuclear cooperation. Is Korea under any obligation to describe its latest missile technology transfers to Syria? I cannot see why it would be. Sharing missile technology is not banned or regulated by UN agreements.

If Hersh is right and N. Korean cooperation with Syria is limited to missile technology then there is little that the US can do to stop it. What it can do is stall talks with N. Korea on the pretext that N. Korea is exporting nuclear technology to Syria, but really insist that all military cooperation cease, including the transfer of missile technolgy. This is what hawks want and what John Bolton has said explicity.

John Bolton has argued that the spread of advanced missile technology to Syria and Iran is every bit as dangerous as are nuclear advances. He has saught to link these two technologies and issues and insists that it doesn't matter whether Korea is helping with missiles or nukes; it should not be taken off the terrorist list. In his original WSJ article of Aug. 31, "Axis of Evil: Pyongyang's Upper Hand," Bolton wrote: 

President Bush has stressed that we must also deal with Pyongyang's biological, chemical and ballistic missile programs. We must address these programs, especially the missiles, soon. Failure to make explicit the important connection between weapons and delivery systems will certainly come back to haunt us, and we are on the verge of allowing this point to slip away entirely.

In Syria Joins the Axis of Evil, on Sept 24, he writes:

Even if we "only" have evidence of continued North Korean ballistic missile cooperation with Syria, that alone should keep the North on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. Syria — and its senior partner, Iran — are both long-time denizens of that same list of state sponsors of terrorism. Can we really delist North Korea when it partners with other terrorist states in the most destructive technologies?

Bolton adds in this interview:

Neither American nor Israeli officials are saying whether the target was a nuclear or missile facility and many don't know, Bolton said.

The former State Department official and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said he did not object to the Beijing talks, which are designed to disable North Korea's nuclear program. At a session last February, North Korea agreed to shut down its main nuclear facility and eventually disable its programs in exchange for aid equivalent to 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil.

Bolton said it would be wrong, however, to remove North Korea from the U.S. list of countries that support terror and therefore are ineligible for various benefits.

"If they are cooperating with either Syria or Iran, such as on ballistic missile stuff, they should stay on (the list) with Syria and Iran," he said.

"If you are supporting terrorist regimes, you are a state supporter of terror," he said.

In all likelihood, Washington and Israeli hawks have used the nuclear issue to go after Syrian missile development. Most importantly, it is being used as a pretext to stop Korean missile technology transfers to Syria and Iran. 

Syria understands that Israel and the US are on a fishing expidition. They also understand that they cannot allow UN inspectors into the country to reveal missile developments or N. Korean assistance. Such intelligence will give Washington hawks amunition to stop talks with North Korea.

Also see this haaretz article: Syria upgrades missiles thanks to Iranian support

Syria has successfully developed a new surface-to-surface missile that would enable it to target Israeli installations such as airports, ports and factories with greater accuracy, according to briefings recently presented to senior ministers…. there is a discernible effort on the part of Syria to improve its missile arsenal – both in terms of range and accuracy.

North Korea Pact Could Hinge on Syria
By JAY SOLOMON
February 8, 2008; Page A5
Wall Street Journal

North Korea missed a Dec. 31 deadline to fully declare the extent of its nuclear activities, as called for under a six-country negotiating process. But U.S. negotiators are voicing guarded confidence that they will eventually gain disclosure from Pyongyang on two key elements of its nuclear program: the number of atomic weapons and North Korea's believed attempt to develop a uranium-enrichment capacity to produce nuclear fuel.

It is the issue of North Korea's believed assistance to third countries, particularly Syria, where U.S. officials say there remains significant distance between Washington and Pyongyang. North Korea continues to deny it has given any nuclear assistance to Syrian President Bashar Assad's government, though it hasn't denied conventional military support. And the international community itself remains divided over what they believe was the full extent of Pyongyang's military assistance to Damascus in recent years.

"The Syria issue is where we really need to push," said a U.S. official involved in the six-party negotiations, which also include Russia, China, Japan and South Korea. "It's the one where we haven't made any headway."

Media disclosure of an Israeli missile strike inside Syria last September brought to international attention the issue of North Korea's possible nuclear assistance to Damascus. The Israeli government declined to comment on its raid along Syria's Euphrates River, and Damascus has denied it has been attempting to develop a nuclear capacity, either for civilian or military use. But a number of U.S. and European officials familiar with the intelligence have said in recent weeks that they believe Israel destroyed a nascent nuclear reactor Syria was developing in cooperation with North Korea.

These officials said spy satellites detected North Korean workers regularly appearing at the Euphrates site. And photographs taken of the facility showed its dimensions and structure bore numerous similarities to the Yongbyon nuclear reactor North Korea is currently disabling as part of its disarmament agreement with the U.S. Satellite photos also showed Syrian bulldozers had cleared the site days after the Israeli strike, a sign to some counterproliferation experts that Damascus was attempting to cover up its activities. A senior European diplomat working on Middle East issues said Western governments, after reviewing intelligence on the Israeli strike, have reached "some sort of common ground…that there seems to have been cooperation between Syria and North Korea" on nuclear development.

Still, seeking to clarify the extent of North Korea's activities inside Syria remains a major obstacle for the U.S. and other countries attempting to finalize the nuclear agreement with Pyongyang, say U.S. officials. Neither Syria nor Israel has been willing to provide information to inspectors from the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, about the activities of the site the Israelis destroyed. And, even inside the U.S. government, intelligence information concerning the Israeli action has been tightly controlled by just a few senior officials.

The result is that there remains a lack of consensus among the five nations negotiating with North Korea over what exactly Pyongyang is supposed to divulge. "Some actors believe that what's been disclosed [about Syria] is serious and it's nuclear. But it's not universally accepted," said the official close to the six-party talks.