News Round Up (22 April 2008)

The International Committee of the Red Cross has been doing a heroic task of looking after the Palestinians trapped on the boarder between Iraq and Syria. This effort, reported below, to find them homes far from the region (Bravo Chile) is no doubt a result of ICRC efforts as well as Chilean kindness. Many thanks to Jean-Jacques Fresard, chef de delegation of the ICRC in Damascus [[email protected]] and to Irenee Herbet [[email protected]] the communications and field officer, who gave me a thorough overview of the ICRC's efforts to help the Palestinians last summer.

They have kept up constant pressure on International organizations to do something for these Palestinians, who are the forgotten refugees of the Iraq war. They have also taken every occasion to publicize their plight and to lecture people like me, sending pictures and details in an effort to humanize their conditions and put faces on the numbers. The ICRC is also responsible for the economic and human exchanges between the Syrian population of the Golan Heights and Syria. They have been working tirelessly to get international observers in Syrian prisons, something Syria Comment has covered in the past.

 

37 Palestinian refugees fleeing Iraq fly to Chile

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — A group of Palestinian refugees stranded on the Iraq-Syria border since 2006 flew to Chile Sunday under a resettlement plan sponsored by the Catholic Church in the South American country and the U.N. agency for refugees.

The group of 37, including 17 children, was the second to make the trip to Chile. Thirty-nine left in early April.

"It's a lovely day for me," said 45-year-old Youssef Darwish. "At last I will feel that I am a human being. But the sad thing is that I will leave behind my friends whom I lived with for two years."

A third and final group will leave at the end of this month. The 735 Palestinians fled the violence in Iraq in 2006 but were denied entry by Syria, leaving them stranded at a desert camp close to the border. Chile has agreed to take 117.

Syria is already home to an estimated 1.5 million Iraqi refugees and about 500,000 Palestinians.

On arrival in Chile, each of the refugees will receive a monthly stipend of $50, or about $500 per family, as well as free housing, health care and education for the children, until they are fully settled in.

During their first few weeks, they will begin learning Spanish, obtain residency documents and receive physicals.

Authorities also have pledged to find jobs for the refugees, who include tailors, plumbers and drivers.

Iraqi Christians Struggle With Fear After Slayings

BAGHDAD — At the Rev. Thair Abdal's church, where on Sunday mornings sweet songs of prayer stream from the doorway, the congregation's fear of death leaves the sanctuary half-filled. "It's very clear," Abdal said. "Like the light of day, you cannot hide it."

Guards with AK-47 assault rifles man the heavy gates outside. Priests remove their black robes and white collars when they travel in the city. Violence in Iraq has declined dramatically since last year, but members of the country's Christian denominations say they are increasingly under threat.

In March, Paulos Faraj Rahho, archbishop of Mosul's Chaldean community, was found dead after being abducted. This month, Youssef Adel, an Assyrian Orthodox priest, was fatally shot in a drive-by attack in Karrada, one of Baghdad's safest neighborhoods and home to Abdal's Holy Catholic Assyrian Church.

Dozens of churches, monasteries and other buildings have been firebombed, looted or occupied by Muslims since June 2004, according to Assyrian church leaders. Christian relief organizations describe the plight of Iraqi Christians as "ethnic cleansing."

Most Christians in Iraq are Chaldeans, members of an Eastern Rite denomination that recognizes the pope's authority. Other sizable denominations include the Assyrian Catholic Church, which traces its roots to the 1st century. Iraqi Christians are also affiliated with the Church of the East, the Anglican Church and other Protestant faiths.

Pope Benedict XVI and President Bush said that in a meeting last week they discussed the "precarious state" of Christian communities in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East.

The Iraqi Christian population numbered 1.35 million before the Persian Gulf War in 1991, according to politicians who cite government statistics from the time. That number has dropped by at least half, according to politicians, priests and religious organizations, mainly because Christians have fled the country in the years since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

Violence in Iraq has declined dramatically since last year, but members of the country's Christian denominations say they are increasingly under threat.
.

In Syrian Villages, the Language of Jesus Lives By ROBERT F. WORTH in the NYTimes. "As Aramaic-speaking Christians disappeared, only a number of villages remain the keeper of this largely forgotten language.

North Korea Helped Syria's Nuclear Program
Revelation Could Upset North Korea Nuclear Talks|
By JAY SOLOMON
April 22, 2008 5:04 p.m.

WASHINGTON—North Korea was helping Syria build a plutonium-based nuclear reactor, the Bush administration is set to tell Congress, a revelation that could undermine diplomatic efforts to dismantle Pyongyang's nuclear-weapons program.This week, the Central Intelligence Agency is expected to begin briefing members of the Senate and House Intelligence Committees on the Israeli strike, according to Congressional and administration officials, based in part on intelligence provided by the Israeli government.

The information is expected to confirm that North Korea was helping Syria develop a plutonium-based nuclear reactor similar to the Yongbyon facility North Korea built north of Pyongyang, said an official familiar with the deliberations. The briefings are also expected to confirm that North Korean workers were active at the Syrian site at the time of the Israeli attack.

Less conclusive, however, is any firm evidence that Syria was attempting to develop nuclear weapons, according to the U.S. official. "People will probably spin this information in whatever direction they want," the official said.

A spokesman for the White House's National Security Council, Gordon Johndroe, said: "The administration routinely keeps appropriate Members of Congress informed of national security and intelligence matters, but I'm going to decline to comment on any specific briefings." A spokesman for the CIA declined to comment.

Destination Martyrdom,
A Legacy of Resistance: The hundreds of insurgent documents that were captured in the raid at Sinjar included personnel files on 52 recruits from Darnah; 10 of them included the enlistee's photo
By Kevin Peraino | NEWSWEEK

What drove so many Libyans to volunteer as suicide bombers for the war in Iraq? A visit to their hometown—the dead-end city of Darnah. 

Even before he vanished, Abd al-Salam bin-Ali was an easy young man to miss. Pale, lanky and blind in one eye, the unobtrusive 20-year-old didn't leave much of an impression in Darnah, his hometown in eastern Libya. In school he had studied to become a veterinarian, but after graduation he couldn't find a job. "The economic situation was terrible," recalls his older brother, Abd al-Hamid. "He was looking for work every day." Sometimes Abd al-Salam would set up a folding table in Darnah's Old City and hawk cheap perfumes.

Unmarried, with few prospects, he still lived with his mother. At home, for distraction, he would sprawl in front of the family television and watch "Lion of the Desert," the 1981 epic of Libyan resistance fighters starring Anthony Quinn. Abd al-Salam had seen it over and over. As the war in Iraq dragged on, he also tuned in to Al-Jazeera. Nobody in the family had supported the American invasion, but Abd al-Salam was particularly affected by the bloody images he saw on the Arabic cable news channel….

Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood:

The Institute for Public Policy Research has released a new in-depth report by Syracuse Professor Joshua Stacher examining the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.  The paper includes an overview and history of the organization; the group's policy positions on issues including the rights of women and minorities, political reform, and the application on Shari'a law; its performance in parliament since winning 88 seats in the 2005 parliamentary elections; and an analysis of western policies toward the organization.

Lebanon

France resumes contacts with Syria
By DPA
Apr 22, 2008, 10:04 GMT

Paris – French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has met with his Syrian counterpart, Walid al-Muallem, in Kuwait, ending a freeze on bilateral contacts imposed by Paris in December, the French Foreign Ministry said Tuesday.

Kouchner and al-Muallem met on the fringe of a conference on Iraq held in Kuwait. The two men discussed primarily regional issues, 'particularly the political crisis in Lebanon,' the foreign ministry said in a statement issued in Paris.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy broke off diplomatic contact with Damascus in December after accusing Syria of blocking a political solution to the Lebanese crisis.

Sarkozy said links would be restored only when France had proof that Syria was not blocking progress towards installing a consensus president in Lebanon.

Lebanon has been without a president since November, as rival factions argue over who should fill the post.

Carter Says Hamas and Syria Are Open to Peace By ETHAN BRONNER in the NYTimes. "Given the general pessimism surrounding Israeli-Arab peace, the upbeat assessment of former American President Jimmy Carter had a contrarian quality to it."

"Carter's New Doctrine," Sami Moubayed

… Contrary to what many Arabs believed, [Carter] was never anti-Israeli but believed that just like the Israelis, the Arabs had the right to live and hope. They too suffered. They too existed and feared. They had legitimate interests, he claimed, that needed to be respected to bring peace to the Holy Land. These views were shared by his new secretary of state, Cyrus Vance, and national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski.

This year, Brzezinski (who is now a foreign policy advisor to Democratic presidential challenger Barack Obama) visited Damascus and met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He then visited one of the private universities in Syria and spoke to students of the Faculty of International Relations. Most of them asked questions about the Carter era. They wanted to know why was it that America's number one ally in the region, Shah Reza Pahlavi of Iran, had been toppled by the Islamic revolution of 1979, despite assurances of support from the Carter White House?

They asked him about the arming and training of jihadis to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan in December 1979. They asked him what could be expected in Syrian-US relations if Obama made it to the White House? That visit was frowned on by decision-makers in Washington, who accused Brzezinski of visiting a nation "that disrupts regional peace and supports international terrorism".

The psychological shock of seeing Brzezinski in Damascus was nothing, however, compared with what happened when Carter landed in the Syrian capital on April 18 to meet not only Assad but also Khaled Meshaal, the head of the political bureau of Hamas, a Palestinian military group that the US brands a "terrorist organization". ….

The Carter Center explained the trip, saying it aimed to "support and provide momentum for current efforts to secure peace in the Middle East". Carter said, "I feel quiet at ease in doing this. I think there's no doubt in anyone's mind that if Israel is ever going to find peace with justice concerning the relationship with their next door neighbors, the Palestinians, that Hamas will have to be included in the process."

Pro-Israeli think thanks in Washington have been slamming Carter for his audacity — "He actually hugged a Hamas official" –to meet with Hamas.  See the barage of articles by WINEP here.

Syria tunes in the West on Madina FM

Popular 'Good Morning Syria' host Honey Sayed and others on the airwaves are mixing thumping music and racy U.S.-style talk shows, providing a rare cultural bridge in the Arab world.

By Borzou Daragahi
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer 
April 22, 2008 

DAMASCUS, SYRIA — It's the midmorning commute, and time for the horoscope on "Good Morning Syria," the nation's hottest radio show.  "Cancer," host Honey Sayed addresses listeners first in Arabic, then in English, with an air of sisterly candor, "don't get all worked up for nothing." On the other side of the window, deejay Abdullah Shaaban cues an oldie from John Travolta and Olivia Newton-John. "I got chills, they're multiplying," Travolta sings. "And I'm losing control."  Honey laughs and continues with her astrology report. "An opportunity is present," she coos into the microphone, "so take it, Leo."  Newly instituted freedom on the nation's airwaves has transformed Syria's sonic landscape. Some say it is shaping the way people view themselves, part of a wave of global influences turning this nation, whose government is the most hostile to the West in the Arab world, into the culture most amenable to it…..

“The March to War: Israel Prepares…” by Nazemroaya

The following article tries to make sense of the almost constant war scares emanating from Israel over the last two years. My bet is that the threats and psychological warfare will not escalate into full battle. Most sensible people in the US and Israel know that war would be foolish and self-defeating. Israel would not get the peace it hopes for. The Middle East would be further radicalized. Oil prices would go through the ceiling. These are the same reasons that the US and Israel will not bomb Iran.

US and Israeli analysts have tried to depict Syria as the low hanging fruit. But like the fruit that Tantalus wanted so badly, it is always out of reach. It is not as low as it seems.

In April 2003, Israel's ambassador to Washington, Daniel Ayalon, explained what conditions the US and Israel believed would cause Syria to abandon its claim to the Golan and its support for Hizbullah. He said:

The way to deal with [Syria] is to de-legitimize its regime and the way to do that is by applying political pressure and to really apply economic sanctions… this is the key element to pressure [it] into regime change… So, this is the direction – a lot of psychological pressure.

The bombing of Lebanon in 2006 was carried out so severely in order to signal to Assad that Syria could not resist Israel and the US. He would have to make peace on favorable terms with Israel or suffer Lebanon's fate. The neo-cons in the White House insisted that the only way to convince Asad to change was to bomb him. This is why the Wurmsers berated Israel for refusing to hit Syria directly. Unfortunately for the neo-cons, most Israeli analysts are not so stupid. They understand the futility of such action. As I wrote in March 2004:

The United States would be unwise to squeeze Syria to the breaking point. Regime change will present the U.S. with a number of immediate dangers and few clear advantages. The likelihood of Syria producing a fully democratic regime in the next ten to fifteen years is remote; it enjoys none of the recognized prerequisites for sustaining democracy: its elites are not committed to democracy, its population is not homogeneous, its national institutions are extremely weak and its per capita GDP is closer to $1,500 than the $5,500 commonly viewed as the democratic tipping point. Moreover, the strategy of promoting external opposition groups, such as Farid Ghadry’s Reform Party, is unlikely to succeed. Similar efforts to support exile groups to bring change to Cuba and Iraq have met with an unbroken record of failure. Should the Asad regime collapse, state institutions such as the army and police would likely disintegrate and the country would slip into chaos and inter-confessional violence…. By threatening Syria’s stability, the U.S. will elicit the opposite effect it desires. Syrians will rally around their government rather than demand change.

Global Research, April 20, 2008

Lebanonwire

The march to war: Israel prepares for war against Lebanon and Syria
by Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya *

By the start of 2007, reports about major upgrades to the Syrian military, including advances in missile technology, with Iranian help were widespread in Israel. [1] The impression of an imminent war existed across much of the Middle East. Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran were reported in Israel to be preparing for a war to spark in the Levant. [2]

It was also claimed in Israel that Damascus had sent secret messages to Tel Aviv that should Israel continue to reject Syria's peace overtures, a war would breakout in the Golan Heights and that Syrian reservists were forbidden from leaving Syria because of the possibility of combat. [3]

In June, 2007, an inner circle of the Israeli government that would form a "war cabinet" in a Middle Eastern war scenario was categorically informed that a war with Syria would absolutely involve Iranian military intervention. [4]

It is now 2008 and the spectre of war has remerged in the Middle East. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad revealed that his country is uneasy and prepared for the worst once again. Despite Tehran's position that the U.S. would not dare launch a war against Iran, the Iranian military is on standby. The Lebanese military and Hezbollah have also been placed on alert.

"While war is not a preferable option, if Israel declares war on Syria and Lebanon or if America declares war on Iran, Syria would be prepared," the Syrian President told a gathering of Arab intellectuals according to Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper, on April 16, 2008. [5] "We should analyze the situation from the perspective of American interests, because the last war in Lebanon has shown that at some point Israel wanted to stop the fighting, but was forced by the [Bush Jr. Administration] to pursue it further," Bashar Al-Assad continued. [6] Thus the threat of war lives on in the Middle East in 2008…

"Miscalculations" in the Levant: Setting the Stage for War?

Hereto, Tel Aviv has been deliberately promoting tensions with Syria and Lebanon. In 2007, Major-General Moshe Kaplinsky, the former deputy chief of staff for the Israeli military, stated during a press briefing that war between Syria and Israel was unlikely as an answer to growing rumours of war that started since late-2006 and the commencement of 2007. The Israeli flag officer however did not rule out an eventual Israeli-Syrian conflict. Major-General Kaplinsky along with many other Israeli commanders and officials repeatedly stressed that a "miscalculation on the border" could spark a conflict between Syria and Israel sometime in the future. [7]

Not long after the 2006 Israeli defeat in Lebanon, Tel Aviv started crafting the "justifications" for more wars in its surrounding neighbourhood, the Levant. [8] The Israeli definitions of "miscalculation" have been extremely vague and ominous.

Tel Aviv has been involved in the process of creating a military carte blanche, allowing for "flexibility" in its regional approach towards Lebanon and Syria.

"Miscalculations" in the eyes of Tel Aviv range from the domestic affairs of the Lebanese and the events in the occupied Palestinian Territories to the most audacious and bellicose of definitions, such as the reaction of the Syrians to Israeli hostilities.

The secretive air assault, later revealed by the codename Operation Orchard, made by the 69th Squadron of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) against an unheard of facility in Deir ez-Zoir Governorate of Syria on September 6, 2007 could have become a "miscalculation" on the part of Syria had it responded to Israeli provocations.   

The Israeli definition of a "miscalculation" also means any arbitrary fire into Israel.  The Jerusalem Post defined a "miscalculation" that could spark a war with Syria as an incident "along the border, in the form of a terrorist attack that escalates into a larger conflict." [9] Such an incident could easily be sparked through conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. 

A false flag operation could also bring such an incident about. On July 18, 2007 there was rocket fire from South Lebanon into Israel by an unknown group, something that could have been used as a pretext for war. In Syria, Lebanon, and the Arab World the incident was believed to be the work of the Israelis and their allies in an effort to justify a future war.

Tel Aviv's Orwellian talk of Peace

In May, 2008 the head of the Mossad, the intelligence service of Israeli, said that talks of peace with Syria would lead to war. [10] Le Nouvel Observateur reported in July 2007 that the Israeli Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, ruled out the resumption of peace talks with Syria while stressing that she believed Damascus posed a problem that must be tackled on a regional scale. [11] When asked about the prospects of peace with Syria, Tzipi Livni responded, "Absolutely not. Syria is pursuing the dangerous game it plays in the region [Middle East]," and added that Syria "remains a threat" to Israel. [12] These statements reveal the conduct of Tel Aviv and its hidden agenda. Within the context of a public declaration of peace during the summer of 2007, they also reveal Tel Aviv's duplicity. 

While Tzipi Livni stated that there would be no peace between Israel and Syria, Ehud Olmert stated in a televised interview with the Al-Arabiya News Channel, that he personally wanted peace with Syria. Prime Minister Olmert addressed President Bashar Al-Assad, the head of Syria, directly, saying "you know that I am ready for direct talks with you" and added that "I am ready to sit with you and talk about peace, not war." Several days later, Ehud Olmert also stated in Orwellian fashion that he wanted peace with the Syrians, but that peace did not equate to immediate peace negotiations between Syria and Israel and could mean a continuation of the "status quo."

Olmert's statement is doublespeak. Hereto, according to the Israelis, the threat of war exists as a result of the status quo between Syria and Israel. This statement is very important to keep in  mind because it indicates that Israel did not want to return the Golan Heights, but wanted something else from Syria as the condition of peace. This is where Tehran comes into the picture.

Israeli officials were further incriminated by the fact that in 2007 Prime Minister Olmert also said he was not concerned by an imminent war with Syria, but that he was unhappy with the public discussion about peace between Syria and Israel. One should question the logic behind Ehud Olmert's "irritation" regarding public overtures of peace between Syria and Israel. [13] Realpolitik is definitely being played by Israel in regards to Damascus in a consorted effort to de-link Syria from Iran and its other allies. In this regard, Damascus publicly insisted that there be no secret talks between Syrian and Israeli officials as to the conditions for peace. [14] The rationale for the Syrian insistence on transparency was to deprive Israeli of any means to covertly try to divide Syria from its Middle Eastern allies by generating suspicions of betrayal. 

The international press extensively reported Ehud Olmert's statements in 2007 about wanting peace with the Syrians. Israeli officials also repeatedly claimed that the Syrians were the ones rejecting peace. [15] These claims are made despite the fact that all public records show exactly the opposite. Syria's leadership have been calling for peace negotiations between Israel and Syria since the premierships of Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon. Israeli claims of pursing peace for the most part have been part of an international public relations campaign attempting to portray the aggressor as the victim. In the case of Syria peace means that Tel Aviv will not go to war with Damascus if it distances itself from Tehran.

De-linking Syria from Iran: Israel's Real Condition for Peace with Syria

The return of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which was was formerly called the "Syrian Heights" in Israel, to Syria was always the recognized condition for establishing Israeli-Syrian peace.

Dr. Alon Liel, a former director-general within the Israeli foreign affairs ministry and a former Israeli ambassador to South Africa, who was heavily involved with previous Israeli negotiations with Syria, has indicated the real issue holding Tel Aviv from accepting peace. Dr. Alon Liel went on record: he confirmed that 85% of negotiations between Syria and Israel were agreed upon by both Damascus and Tel Aviv. [16] The major issues for establishing peace between Damascus and Tel Aviv were all resolved in 2000; water rights for Israel from Syrian territory, guaranteed Israeli access to the Golan Heights upon its return to Syria, and security guarantees between both parties. [17]

Peace, in the sense of an agreement by both sides, however was unachievable in 1993, 1995, 1996, and 2000 due to Tel Aviv's internal politics. The situation became more so after 2001 with the start of an aggressive U.S. policy in the Middle East. "Israel isn't going to hand over [or return] the Golan [Heights] to an ally of Iran," Alon Liel has insisted as being the problem in regards to peace between both sides. [18]

Tel Aviv has imposed broader demands on Syria as the price of peace. It is in the strategic interests of the U.S. and Israel to isolate Iran, even at the cost of peace with Syria. [19] In this regard, Syrian internal affairs and foreign relations are decisive factors for Israel in regards to negotiations.

Syria and Iran are part of a strategic alliance in the Middle East resisting the interests of America, Britain, Israel, France, and Germany. Other Middle Eastern players resisting the same foreign interests are additionally allied or associated with Syria and Iran within one tangible bloc, the Resistance Bloc. [20] It is in this context that one understands Israel is no pursuing peace with Syria, but is threatening the Syrians with war if they do not abandon Iran and their allies.

On the eve of major Israeli exercises in which Israel and Syria fought a fictitious war, the Israeli Deputy Prime Minister, Haim Ramon, stated on a radio interview that Syrian anxiety had no basis and that Israel was pursing peace with Damascus, but added "unfortunately Syria is stuck deep in the evil axis of connections with [Hezbollah]." [21] If this is not indicative enough, Haim Ramon also concluded that Damascus has made a strategic choice to preserve its alliance with Iran rather than "pursue peace," which to Tel Aviv would mean a termination of Syrian-Iranian ties. Furthermore, on March 23, 2003 Shimon Peres stated that "peace talks with Syria cannot begin while it keeps supplying Lebanon with weapons." [22] This was a reference to the important role of Damascus as a middle man between Tehran and the Levant.

Neutralizing Syria: Prerequisite for Neutralizing Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran

Damascus is pivotal to the framework of resistance in the Middle East against Israeli, Anglo-American, and Franco-German interests. Syria acts as a bridge between Iran and Iraq at one end of the Middle East and the Levant on the other. Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, Iraq, and Iran are all tied together through Syria. [23]

In this regard, Damascus serves as the central link that holds together the forces resisting a new regional order in the Middle East, also known as the "Project for the New Middle East."

What the Israelis have been trying to do, in coordination with the U.S., Britain, France, and Germany is to remove Syria from these alliances and thus splinter or break the link between Iran and the Levant. The main goal is to pressure Syria into making a peaceful political surrender (just as Libya did to Britain and the U.S. in 2003), and to distance itself from Iran and the Arab resistance within Palestine and Lebanon to Israel.

Shlomo Ben-Ami, a former Israeli foreign minister, hinted in October 2007 that if Syria would not dissociate itself peacefully from Iran, a military solution was inevitable: "Driving a wedge between Syria and Iran, drying up [Hezbollah] by cutting its lines of arms supply, allowing the vital task of stabilizing Lebanon to succeed [meaning empowering client forces in Beirut], and forestalling what now looks as a most realistic scenario of a triple front war of Israel against Syria, Hamas and [Hezbollah] are the strategic fruits concomitant to a Syrian-Israeli peace." [24]

Removing Syria from the "Resistance Bloc" is a prerequisite for Israel, America, and their partners for tackling Iran. With Syria removed from Iran's influence, the entire Levant could be controlled and the resistance in the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon under such players as Hamas and Hezbollah could be significantly weakened. Under such a framework, the Levant could be integrated into the economic order of the so-called "Western Powers" under the Washington Consensus and within the Mediterranean Union: this is where Israeli, Anglo-American, and France-German Middle East interests merge.

In 2006, the ultimate objective of the Israeli attack on Lebanon was to remove Syria from its alliance with Iran and insert Damascus within the orbit of a new regional order. With this understanding in mind, the 2006 Israeli attacks on Lebanon were revealed to have been planned to also target Syria.[25]

War however became a far costlier option for America, Britain, Israel, and their partners and that is why political channels were pursued with Damascus after the 2006 defeat of Tel Aviv in Lebanon.  Haaretz released a revealing report in August, 2007 about the true nature of the diplomatic mission of Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, to Damascus. The intentions of her visit to Damascus were stated to help establish peace between Syria and Israel and better ties with America, but the conditions were not fully disclosed.

Syria was being courted to abandon Iran, just as Italy was courted to abandon Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire by London and Paris before the First World War: "The chairman of the [U.S.] House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Tom Lantos, who accompanied Pelosi, said Assad should be given a final opportunity to disengage from the 'axis of evil.' According to Lantos, in a few years, Sunni Muslims and not Iran under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be in control in the region, and it is to the advantage of Damascus to know which side to be on." [26]

For Tel Aviv and its partners, if the goal of removing Damascus from its alliance with Tehran can not be achieved through diplomatic dialogue, economics, threats, or pressure then the original course of action, warfare, within a major three-front confrontation is the other alternative against Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories. These hostilities would also be linked to confrontation with the Iranians and could result in an broader conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia. Ehud Olmert declared "I believe that we can expect a calm summer, a calm autumn and a calm winter [which runs from November, 2007 to March, 2008]," when tensions were rising between Syria and Israel in 2007. [27] It is worth noting that tensions began to rise again in the Levant after Olmert's timeframe of calm.

The threats of war in 2007 were partly scare tactics to pressure Syria into yielding and conceding to the geo-strategic interests of America, Britain, Israel, France, and Germany. [28] Up to now, all efforts to remove the Syrians from their alliances have failed.

Clearly, Israel has been preparing for war on a broader regional level. Simultaneously, Tel Aviv has been preparing to shift blame for any possible outbreak of a regional war on the Syrians, the Lebanese, the Palestinians, even the Russians, and foremost on the Iranians.

Operation Orchard: Fabricating a Syria-Iran-North Korea Nuclear Axis

On September 6, 2007 Israeli warplanes violated Syrian airspace and mysteriously attacked an unheard of facility. The Syrian military reported that Israeli aircraft illegally entered Syrian airspace from over the Mediterranean Sea and headed towards northeastern Syria. "Air defense units confronted [the Israeli warplanes] and forced them to leave [Syria] after they drooped [sic; dropped] some ammunition in deserted areas without causing any human or material damage," the Syrian military initially claimed. [29] The Syrians immediately also stated that Israel was trying to create pretexts for another war in the Middle East. [30] The U.S. government also entered the commotion by claiming that the White House was aware of the operation and the Pentagon had assisted the Israelis. The White House also claimed that the Israelis had destroyed a facility that was linked to a clandestine nuclear program in Syria. Damascus also maintained that the attacks and the claims about a secretive nuclear program were preludes to U.S. involvement in an Israeli war against Syria. [31]

In this context, Syria restrained itself, fearing that Tel Aviv wanted to entice Damascus into a war. Professor Eyal Zisser, the director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, noted "Any misunderstanding could lead to conflagration. However, the Syrian announcement was surprising in its moderation." [32] The operation was also reported as being a possible test-run for an Israeli attack on Iran. The U.S. and Israel also asserted that the Russian-made air defence systems in Syria did not function. [33] The attacks could have also been a form of pressure to force the Syrians to go to the Annapolis Conference to detect if a war was intended against their country.

The attack was described as an Israeli success by the Bush Jr. Administration and the mainstream media. A propaganda campaign was launched: Through media disinformation and political statements, efforts were placed on establishing the threat of a "Syria-Iran-North Korea nuclear proliferation axis." [34]

The alleged nuclear facility was a Syrian project aided by North Korea and Iran according to the U.S. and Israeli governments. Trying to pin Syria for having weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs is not a fresh approach. In fact just barely a month after the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq the U.S. and Britain actively started trying to portray Syria in an Iraq-like manner claiming that Damascus also had hidden weapons of mass destruction (WMD) stockpiles.

In early-April, 2008 it became clear that Israel and the U.S. had been planning on releasing details about Operation Orchard and the alleged nuclear facility attacked by Israel in Syria to further demonize Damascus and to further construct a weapons of mass destruction (WMD) link between Syria, North Korea, and Iran. [35] The Jerusalem Post subsequently reported on April 14, 2008 that Israeli experts suggested that the full disclosure about an Israeli attack in 2007 in the U.S. Congress could even "embarrass" the Syrians to the point of militarily responding against Israel. [36]

The Assassination of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus: Antecedent to War?

On February 12, 2008 Imad Fayez Mughniyeh, a top Hezbollah security official, was assassinated in Damascus by means of a remote detonated car bomb. The intelligence services of America, Israel, Britain, France, Germany, Jordon, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia were all suspected of some form of involvement. According to The Daily Star, an English-language newspaper based in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia had helped Israel in assassinating Imad Mughniyeh and a Saudi military attaché was arrested in Damascus due to links to a Syrian collaborator in the assassination. [37]

More than a month following the Mughniyeh assassination, U.S. Vice-President Cheney made a regional tour of the Middle East. "We must not, and will not, ignore the darkening shadows of the situations in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Syria and in Iran and the forces there that are working to derail the hopes of the world," Vice-President Cheney vowed dramatically in a insinuation that conflict was brewing and the U.S. was prepared to aid Israel. [38]

It did not take long for pundits to point toward Mughniyeh's murder as being used in a ploy to launch war in the Middle East. Israel's intelligence and information apparatus started exerting themselves in a misinformation campaign to create doubts about the murder of Imad Mughniyeh. Tel Aviv's aims were to shift the blame on the Syrians in a psychological operation (PSYOP) intended to inseminate doubts and mistrust between Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran, in order to strain their alliance and weaken the Resistance Bloc.

According to Israel's Channel 10, sometime after the assassination of Mughniyeh, Tel Aviv sent Hezbollah a letter through a third party, threatening another disproportionate war against Lebanon. Tel Aviv also wasted no time in threatening Syria if Hezbollah launched retaliatory attacks on Israel. [39] In this context, Reuters also reported that an unnamed senior Israeli official had spelled out conflict with the Syrians as a reprisal for hostile Lebanese and Palestinian actions against Israel. [40] The root of these so-called hostile actions by Lebanese and Palestinian groups are of retaliatory nature to hostile actions initiated by Tel Aviv. In many cases, these attacks against Israel are invited by Tel Aviv as a means to create the justifications of postponing peace, annexing territory, and launching war. 

In mid-April, 2008, Israeli jets and helicopters created insecurity among residents of Haifa when they scrambled across Israel to intercept an unidentified light plane entering Israeli airspace. [41] Tel Aviv's security and military forces have been on high alert since the Mughniyeh Assassination. [42] On March 18, 2008 an Israeli warship was also dispatched into Lebanese waters, where it was intercepted by an Italian warship, in a move that many in Lebanon saw as a taunt by Israel.

Israel has advertised very publicly that it expects retaliation from Hezbollah. [43] This "retaliation" could also give Israel an excuse for launching another war. The Israeli government also used the opportunity to raise domestic tensions amongst its own citizens. Israeli officials also warned about possible attacks from across the Lebanese border by Iranian-manufactured "explosive-packed drones" or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) sent by Hezbollah. [44]

Creating Pretexts for War in Lebanon

Israel has overtly claimed, as part of a concerted public relations campaign, that Hezbollah increased the range of its rocket arsenal. [45] The public advertisement of the increase in the rocket range of Hezbollah by Tel Aviv stands outside the standardized protocol of Israeli officials who consistently work domestically to keep public confidence in the strength of the Israeli military and security apparatus. Although there was a genuine probability of truth to the Israeli statements, the main objective behind their very publicly advertised declarations were to further build excuses for further Israeli aggression, such as pre-emptive strikes, in Lebanon or the so-called Israeli "Northern Front" and regionally in the Middle East.

In reality, Hezbollah's rocket range was probably upgraded or already capable of hitting deep into Israeli territory before Tel Aviv decided to divulge its knowledge. Hezbollah had already threatened to strike Tel Aviv in 2006 if Beirut were to be attacked by Israeli bombs. The timing of the information by Israeli officials about Hezbollah's rocket range is linked to painting the picture of a growing threat amongst its own citizens and to gain their support for combat.

In the case of Hezbollah, like those of the Palestinian Resistance and Syria, the increased range of their projectiles have been attentively linked to Iran, itself the ultimate target. Starting in March, 2008 the mainstream media in Israel and worldwide reported that the Israeli government had warned that most of Israel, up to the city of Dimona in the Negev Desert, was within the striking range of Hezbollah from Lebanon. Haaretz correspondents in addition reported that "Hamas militants who recently returned to the Gaza Strip after training in Iran [held] a detailed plan for upgrading the capabilities of the rockets being developed in the [Gaza] Strip, according to senior Palestinian Authority sources." [46] As a note, the Palestinian Authority sources being referred to are the unelected Fatah officials in the West Bank who themselves collaborate with Israel. These types of reports have also helped boost the case for war.

The basis for war against Lebanon is an intricate parcel of a broader conflict in the Middle East, which in turn is itself a component of an even larger conflict in Eurasia. The fact that various Palestinian resistance groups have trained in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran is also being used as a justification for war and as a means to tie all three republics closer together as a single enemy axis by Israel. Aside from those in the Palestinian Territories, in the event of a major war the Palestinian groups based in Lebanon and Syria have made it clear that they will fight alongside the Lebanese and Syrians. Palestinians in Egypt and Jordon have also elucidated towards such a course of action too.

With 2008 efforts to implicate Hezbollah in regards to attacks on American and British troops in Iraq have resurfaced. These reports were originally made by London in an effort to link Hezbollah to the roadside bombs in Basra at the start of the Anglo-American occupation of Iraq, but were dismissed. The main British objective of involving Hezbollah as an enemy in Iraq was the foreknowledge that Lebanon would be attacked by Israel in 2006.

On April 8, 2008 General David H. Petraeus, the commander of Coalition troops in Iraq, accused both Iran and Hezbollah of helping the Iraqi forces that attacked the "Green Zone" in Baghdad. [47] He testified to the U.S. Senate about Hezbollah's alleged involvement in killing American and Coalition troops: "Together with the Iraqi Security Forces, we have also focused on the Special Groups [meaning those forces fighting against American and Coalition forces]. These elements are funded, trained, armed, and directed by Iran's Qods [Jerusalem] Force, with help from Lebanese Hezbollah." [48] The allegations by General Petraeus were part of the conscious effort to justify a greater American role in the next conflict against the Lebanese.

The Mediterranean Front

It is clear to the Pentagon, NATO, and Tel Aviv that the Levant stands to ignite a Mediterranean battle-front in the event of a war against Iran. To this end, the marshaling of a relatively invisible NATO war fleet in the Eastern Mediterranean is rigidly tied to war plans against Tehran. [49] The naval build-ups in the Persian Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean have been ongoing since 2001 with the strategic aim of preparing the logisitical framework for war against Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestinian resistance, Syria, and Iran.

Paris and Berlin have intense vested interest in the Anglo-American wars in the Middle East. As has been repeatedly uttered by French, German, and E.U. officials the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East are the "eastern borders of the European Union." [50] To this end Nicolas Sarkozy's Mediterranean Union is a declaration of these Franco-German interests that are very much tied to the wars in the Middle East and the establishment of a settlement between the Arabs and Israel in the Levant. [51]  

The 2006 Israeli siege against Lebanon, with the active support of American military personnel and planners in Israel, was a phase of this military schedule as well as a dress rehearsal by both sides for a larger Middle Eastern war. Both sides were given the opportunity to re-evaluate their tactics and strategies for such an upcoming war, should it spark. History will see what comes to pass. 

* Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya is a writer and geopolitical analyst based in Ottawa who specializes on the Middle East and is currently Research Associate at the Centre for Research on Globalization. This article first appeared at globalresearch.ca

Also see: The March to War: Syria Preparing for US-Israeli Attacks

NOTES

[1] Ze'ev Schiff, Syria rearms, moves troops closer to Golan Heights border, Haaretz, February 22, 2007; Ze'ev Schiff, Israel's message in talks with Gates: Syria is preparing for war, Haaretz, April 22, 2007; Yitzhak Benhorin, Syria arming intensely, minister says, Yedioth Ahronoth, May 4, 2007.

[2] Herb Keion, 'Syria, Iran, Hizbullah planning war,' The Jerusalem Post, June 6, 2007; Yakkov Katz, 'War with Syria this summer unlikely,' The Jerusalem Post, July 11, 2007; Roee Nahmias, Syria's top general to pilots: Be prepared for war, Yedioth Ahronoth, October 23, 2007.

[3] Smadar Peri, Syria plans war of attrition in the Golan Heights, Yedioth Ahronoth, August 2, 2007; Aluf Been, IDF, government preparing for possible Syrian strike on Golan Heights, Haaretz, April 2, 2007; Yakkov Katz, IDF prepares for Syrian attack on Golan, The Jerusalem Post, April 27, 2007; Smadar Peri, Arab official: Syrian general mulling war with Israel, Yedioth Ahronoth, August 14, 2007.

[4] Ronn Sofer, Syria not planning offensive, security officials say, Yedioth Ahronoth, June 11, 2007.

[5] Roee Nahmias, Assad: US wants Israel to declare war on Syria, Yedioth Ahronoth, April 17, 2008; Assad: Syria is preparing for war, The Jerusalem Post, April17, 2008; 'We are prepared for Israel war,' Press TV, April 17, 2008.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Amos Harel, IDF deputy chief: Summer war with Syria not likely, Haaretz, July 11, 2007.

[8] The Levant in its cotemporary definition is a geographic sub-region of the Middle East that includes Lebanon, Palestine/Israel, Syria, and Jordon. The Turkish province of Hatay, where the city of Alexandretta (Iskenderon) is located, has traditionally been considered a part of the Levant along with small portions of Turkey. The exact boundaries of the Levant are abstract, but the categorization of Levantine countries, in the geographic sense of the word, is unambiguous. The Levant is roughly bordered by Iraq to the east, the Mediterranean Sea to the west, the mountain range of the Taurus in the north, and Arabia to the south.

[9] Yakkov Katz, IDF wary of possible war with Syria, The Jerusalem Post, July 11, 2007.

[10] Itamar Eichner, Talks with Syria could lead to war, says Mossad chief, Yedioth Ahronoth, May 14, 2007.

[11] Tzipi Livni, Tzipi Livni : «Nous allons aider Mahmoud Abbas…», interview by Henri Guirchoun, Le Nouvel Observateur, July 12, 2007.

[12] Ibid.; Tzipi Livni:  « Absolument pas. La Syrie poursuit le jeu dangereux qui est le sien dans la région. (…) et demeure une menace… »

[13] Hern Keinon, Olmert: Israel, Syria don't want war, The Jerusalem Post, July 12, 2007.

[14] Assad sets Golan pullout as condition for future talks, The Daily Star (Lebanon), July 18, 2007.

[15] Syria dismisses Olmert offer to hold peace talks, The Jerusalem Post and Associated Press (AP), July 10, 2007.

[16] Yaakov Lappin, Israel-Syria pact '85 percent done,' Yedioth Ahronoth, July 18, 2007.

[17] Adam Entous, Syria may be flexible on key Israeli demand: UN, Reuters, July 12, 2007.

[18] Lappin, Israel-Syria pact, Op. cit.

[19] Adam Entous, Israel says awaits clear Syrian message on Iran, Reuters, July 18, 2007.

[20] The Resistance Bloc is a  group of players that can be categorized within one grouping for resisting foreign programs and interests in the Middle East. Iran, Syria, both the Lebanese Resistance and the Lebanese National Opposition, the Hamas-led Palestinian government in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Resistance, the Iraqi Resistance, and various elements of opposition in the Arab World all fall into this regional grouping opposed to Anglo-American, Franco-German, and Israeli interests.

[21] Deputy PM Ramon: 'Israel has no intention of attacking Syria,' The Jerusalem Post, April 3, 2008.

[22] Aviram Zino, Peres: Israel will not cede Golan Heights for Syria-controlled Lebanon, Yedioth Ahronoth, March 23, 2008.

[23] It is interesting to note that the outline of this bloc also falls within the perimeters of the so-called "Shia Crescent," an artificial and misleading concept about Shiite ascendancy in a crescent starting from Iran, going through Iraq and Syria, and ending in Lebanon and Palestine. This concept is a brethren-term of the very terminology that conceptualized the "Sunni Triangle" in Iraq, which did not exist until the campaign to occupy Iraq started. Both terms are psychological devices and concepts described as a means to re-categorize and divide the Middle East.

[24] Shlomo Ben-Ami, The way to Damascene conversion, Yedioth Ahronoth, October 21, 2007.

[25] Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, The Premeditated Nature of the War on Lebanon: A Stage of the Broader Middle East Military Roadmap, Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), September 10, 2007.

[26] Aluf Ben, Israel seeks to reassure Syria: No summer attack, Haaretz, April 3, 2007; it should also be noted that the grounds were paved for war against Berlin and Vienna in 1914 by London and Paris by first de-linking Rome from Germany and Austro-Hungary and this is precisely what Washington, D.C. and Tel Aviv have been trying to do in regards to Damascus and Tehran.

[27] Barak Ravid, Olmert: Israel, Syria have no interest in military conflict, Haaretz, August 11, 2007.

[28] Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, The March to War: Détente in the Middle East or "Calm before the Storm?" Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), July 12, 2007.

[29] Air Defense Units Confront Israeli Aircrafts over Syrian airspace forcing them to Leave, Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), September 6, 2007.

[30] Syria: Israel Is Spreading False Reports In Order To Justify War, Reuters, September 30, 2007

[31] Syrian paper warns nuclear rumors may be prelude to US attack, Associated Press (AP), September 16, 2007.

[32] Alastair MacDonald, Syria-Israel bombing incident shrouded in mystery, Reuters, September 7, 2007.

[33] Report: Russia sent technicians to Syria, Jerusalem Post, October 2, 2007.

[34] Sarah Baxter et al., Israelis 'blew apart Syrian nuclear cache,' The Sunday Times (U.K.), September 16, 2007; Alexander Kogan, The secretive Syrian-N. Korean alliance, The Jerusalem Post, September 18, 2007.

[35] Amos Harel and Barak Ravid, Israel, U.S. plan to release details on Syria attack, Haaretz, April 9, 2008.

[36] Yakkov Katz and Herb Keinon, Status of Syria strike hearing unclear, The Jerusalem Post, April 14, 2008.

[37] Riyadh accused of role in Mughniyeh assassination, The Daily Star (Lebanon), April 10, 2008.

[38] Cheney backs Israel over security, British Broadcasting Corporation News (BBC News), March 23, 2008.

[39] 'Israel threatened to attack Damascus,' The Jerusalem Post, March 15, 2008; Adam Entous and Daniel Williams, Israel secretly warned Syria about Hezbollah, ed. Dominic Evans, Reuters, March 14, 2008; Jon Brain, Israel calms fears of Syria conflict, British Broadcasting Corporation News (BBC News), April 3, 2008.

[40] Ibid.

[41] Hanan Greenberg and Ahiya Raved, Light plane causes scare in north, Yedioth Ahronoth, April 12, 2008.

[42] Ron Ben-Yishai, Revenge for Mugniyah could ignite conflict in north, Yedioth Ahronoth, April 3, 2008.

[43] Yoav Stern, Nasrallah: Mughniyah's blood will lead to elimination of Israel, Haaretz, March 14, 2008; Police to beef up forces over Purim, fearing Hezbollah strike, Associated Press (AP), March 17, 2008; Avi Issacharooff et al., Hezbollah deputy chief: We have proof Israel killed Mughniyah, Haaretz, March 23, 2008; IDF chief: Army prepared for any scenario, Yedioth Ahronoth, April 18, 2008.

[44] Yakkov Katz, 'Hizbullah may send bomb-laden UAVs,' The Jerusalem Post, April 6, 2008.

[45] Israel: Hezbollah increases rocket range, Associated Press (AP), March 27, 2008.

[46] Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel, Hamas gets Iranian plans for improved Qassams, Haaretz, March 31, 2008.

[47] Andrew Gray and David Morgan, U.S. sees Iran and Syria "Lebanon" gambit in Iraq, ed. Philip Barbara, Reuters, April 8, 2008.

[48] General David H. Petraeus, April 8, 2008 SFRC Testimony (Testimony, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, D.C., April 8, 2008).

[49] Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, The March to War: Naval build-up in the Persian Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean, Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), October 1, 2006.

[50] Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, The Mediterranean Union: Dividing the Middle East and North Africa, Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), February 10, 2008.

[51] Ibid.; Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, The Mediterranean Union: NATO's Role in Conquering the Middle East and North Africa, Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), February 18, 2008.

“Behind TV Analysts, Pentagon’s Hidden Hand,” by Barstow

Message Machine
Behind TV Analysts, Pentagon’s Hidden Hand
Behind TV Analysts, Pentagon’s Hidden Hand  
A PENTAGON CAMPAIGN Retired officers have been used to shape terrorism coverage from inside the TV and radio networks. The Pentagon has cultivated “military analysts” in a campaign to generate favorable news coverage of the Bush administration’s wartime performance…..

Hidden behind that appearance of objectivity, though, is a Pentagon information apparatus that has used those analysts in a campaign to generate favorable news coverage of the administration’s wartime performance, an examination by The New York Times has found.

The effort, which began with the buildup to the Iraq war and continues to this day, has sought to exploit ideological and military allegiances, and also a powerful financial dynamic: Most of the analysts have ties to military contractors vested in the very war policies they are asked to assess on air.

Those business relationships are hardly ever disclosed to the viewers, and sometimes not even to the networks themselves. But collectively, the men on the plane and several dozen other military analysts represent more than 150 military contractors either as lobbyists, senior executives, board members or consultants. The companies include defense heavyweights, but also scores of smaller companies, all part of a vast assemblage of contractors scrambling for hundreds of billions in military business generated by the administration’s war on terror. It is a furious competition, one in which inside information and easy access to senior officials are highly prized….. (long story with lots of good investigative reporting.)

See Col. Lang's comments on this story: "They did not drink the Koolaid?"

Yes, and those who did not "play ball" were systematically excluded from access by the Pentagon.  The MSM picked up those cues (presumably transmitted by the Administration) and stopped talking to many of the best people. 

I was invited to one briefing at the Pentagon.  At the meeting, many of those mentioned in this article were present.  The purpose of the meeting was to give Rumsfeld the chance to explain the Abu Ghraib mess. I asked some awkward questions and was not invited again.  pl

Latest Statistics on Arab Popularity of Asad, Hamas, Hizbullah, Iraq…

Idaf writes:
.
Here is a transcript of a panel discussion of few days ago by MARTIN INDYK, SHIBLEY TELHAMI and DAVID IGNATIUS in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, The Brookings Institution on VIEWS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST: PUBLIC OPINION IN THE ARAB WORLD (results of the poll on Arab public opinion):
.
The presentation of SHIBLEY TELHAMI here with all the breakdowns and comparison with 2006..
Apparently, the popularity of Bashar grew from 2% in 2006 to 16% in 2008. Too bad they did not have a question on Syria. The result are really rich and diverse. 
Here are a few highlights:

Iraq: Only 6% of Arabs polled believe that the American surge has worked. A plurality (35% ) do not believe reports that violence has in fact declined. Over 61% believe that if the US were to withdraw from Iraq, Iraqis will find a way to bridge their differences, and only 15% believe the civil war would expand. 81% of Arabs polled (outside Iraq) believe that the Iraqis are worse off than they were before the Iraq war.

Iran: In contrast with the fears of many Arab governments, the Arab pu public does not appear to see Iran as a major threat. Most believe that Iran has the right to its nuclear program and do not support international pressure to force it to curtail its program. A pl plurality of Arabs (44%) believes that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, the outcome would be more positive for the region than negative.

The Arab Israeli conflict: There is an increase in the expressed importance of the Palestinian issue, with 86% of the public identifying it as being at least among the top three issues to them. A majority of Arabs continues to support the two?state solution based on the 1967 borders, but an increasing majority is pessimistic about its prospects. If the prospects of a two state solution collapse, 50% believe it would lead to a state of intense conflict for years t to come, while only 9% believe it would lead to a one one?state solution, and only 7% believe that the Palestinians would eventually surrender.

Palestinian Divisions: In the conflict between : Hamas and Fatah, only 8% sympathize with Fatah, while 18% sympathize with Hamas, and 38% sympathize with both to some extent. In so far as, they see Palestinians as somewhat responsible for the state of they affairs in Gaza, 15% blame Hamas’s government, 23% blame the government appointed by President Mahmoud Abbas, and 39% blame both equally.

The Lebanese Crisis: Only 9% express sympathy with the majority governing coalition in the current in internal crisis in Lebanon, while 30% sympathize with the internal opposition led by Hizbollah, 24%, sympathize with neither side, and 19% sympathize with both to some extent.

Popular Leaders: Hezbollah’’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, increased his popularity as the most admired, leader in the Arab world (26%) There was also an increase in the popularity of President Bashar Assad of Syria. Also striking, however, was the emerging popularity of modernizing Sunni Arab leaders, particularly Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid al Maktoum of Dubai, when respondents identify the two leaders they admire most.

Attitudes toward the US: 83% of the public has an unfavorable view of the US and 70% express no confidence in the US. Still, Arabs continue to rank the US among the top countries with freedom and democracy for their own people. 32% believe that, from the point of view of advancing peace in the Middle East, American policy will remain the same, no matter who wins the US elections. 18% believe that Barack Obama has the best chance of advancing peace, 13% believe Hillary Clinton has the best chance, while 4% identify John McCain as having the best chance for advancing peace.

Global Outlook: France continues to be the most popular country, China continues to make a good showing, and views of Pakistan have declined.

Media: Al-Jazeera continues to command the largest share of the Arabic news market, with 53% of Arabs polled identifying it as their first choice for news, with practically no change from last year. Egyptian Television and Al Al?Arabiya have made some gains over last year. To a plurality of respondents, the quality OF both Al-Arabiya and Al-Jazeera has improved over previous years, with only a small minority perceiving a decline.

Carter in Damascus: al-Jazeera by Clayton Swisher

Clayton Swisher, the author of the excellent book, The Truth About Camp David, is now working for al-Jazeera TV and has done an excellent story on Carter's Visit to Damascus. It includes a bit with the second in command of Hamas, Dr. Musa Abu Marzook.  See it on U-tube.


 

News Round Up (18 April 2008)

Former President Jimmy Carter Meets With Hamas Leader Khaled Meshal ABC News

"You have to involve Hamas. They have to be involved in some way," Carter said. Leading Israeli columnist Akiva Eldar told ABC News today that this policy would not work. "It's no use just talking to the good guys like Abbas, if you don't also talk to the bad guys like Hamas. Any deal Israel makes with Abbas can be destroyed by Hamas if they don't agree," Eldar said.

Carter also attacked current Israeli policy of blockading the Gaza Strip, which since June has been ruled by Hamas. "It's an atrocity that is perpetrated as punishment on the people of Gaza. It's a crime. … I think it is an abomination that this continues to go on," he said.

Syria, US at Odds Over Hariri Probe By ADAM ZAGORIN/Time

The war in Iraq has become "a major debacle" and the outcome "is in doubt" despite improvements in security from the buildup in U.S. forces, according to a highly critical study published Thursday by the Pentagon's premier military educational institute.

Back to Jordanian option/ Eiland Four reasons why final-status agreement with Palestinians is unfeasible…

An Ominous Rift Grows in the Arab World By: Rami G. Khouri | The Daily Star As oil income to Arab producers continues to rise, we are witnessing sharper polarization between the wealthy, energy-producing states of the Gulf with their small populations on the one hand, and the more populous, energy-importing Arab countries in the Levant, the Nile Valley, and North Africa on the other….

The Age of Nonpolarity
by Richard Haass
Foreign Affairs
The era of American hegemony is over–and Washington will have to change its ways to succeed in the new environment.

The State Department on Tuesday issued a new travel warning on Syria, telling U.S. citizens to "thoroughly consider the risks of travel to Syria" and to "take adequate precautions to ensure their safety."

Syria — which the U.S. has labeled as a state sponsor of terrorism — continues to be home to the offices of several terror groups, the new warning says.

Groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad along with other extremist organizatiosn "have the potential to be either the targets of or perpetrators of acts of violence," the statement reads, pointing to recent incidents that likely would make the usual day-trekker reconsider a leisurely visit.

"On February 12, 2008, an explosion occurred in the residential Kafer Soseh neighborhood of Damascus, killing Imad Moughniyeh, a senior Hizbollah operative.

"In 2006, the U.S. Embassy in Damascus was attacked by terrorists armed with guns, grenades, and a car bomb.

"The Syrian Government has allowed anti-U.S. demonstrations to occur; the latest was on March 3, 2008. Anti-U.S. demonstrations date back to September 2005, some of which have turned violent and led to damage to Western embassies, including the U.S. Embassy."

Abbas to Discuss Borders, Refugees, Jerusalem Status With Bush
By Massoud A. Derhally

April 15 (Bloomberg) — Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will discuss the so-called final status issues in the Middle East peace process when he meets President George W. Bush in Washington on April 24.

Abbas discussed the violence in the Gaza Strip with Jordan's King Abdullah II today in Amman, the Royal Court said in a statement. The two men talked about final status questions, which Abbas will also raise with Bush, according to the statement.

President Assad is “more optimistic than any time before.” / Carter is “very upbeat”

Posted by Alex

Thanks to IDAF who translated the highlights of President Assad's talk during his meeting with Arab Intellectuals who participated in the "Conference on Pan-Arab Thought Revival and Arab Destiny" held in Damascus this week.

Former Lebanese Prime Minister Salim Hoss and Palestinian activist Azmi Bishara were among the attendees.

Original article in Arabic here: http://www.al-akhbar.com/ar/node/70804
 

20080415-144027.JPG
 
Lebanon:
Syria does not keep an equal distance with all Lebanese factions, nonetheless we acted responsibly and invited PM Saniora to the Arab summit despite all the insults directed at us from the Lebanese fraction that Saniora belongs to. We view our differences with some Lebanese political factions as temporary disagreement. We feel that the US is satisfied with the current situation in Lebanon and does not want to reach a solution.
 
Other external parties that have influence in Lebanon do not support the Arab initiative.
 
I met with Saudi FM prince Saud Al-Faisal here in Syria and told him that we are ready to cooperate, but you Saudis have greater influence in Lebanon, as the governing authority in Lebanon includes key leaders "that grew in your lap and live through your support and are directly under your influence". The opposition on the other hand was not manufactured at the presidential palace in Syria. It is not true that we have more influence on the Lebanese opposition compared to your influence on the government. We have a clear vision for the solution for Lebanon.

Any initiative from our part would require establishing good relationships with the other external parties with influence in Lebanon such as the Saudis and the Egyptians.
 
Iraq:
Collin Powel met with me in Damascus weeks after the fall of Baghdad and read what is now known as the "conditions list". The list did not only ask for expulsion of Palestinian leadership from Syria, but also included a condition that I never mentioned before, that forbids Syria from hosting Iraqi scientists and Iraqi intellectuals. Later we saw these targeted in Iraq.

We were expecting to see an Iraqi resistance emerging against the occupation, but we were surprised with the pace that this resistance transformed its efforts quantitatively and qualitatively, compared to similar experiences of resistance movements in Lebanon and Palestine.
 
Syria calls for an Iraqi national reconciliation congress that would draft a new Iraqi constitution.
 
The case in Iraq today is not a civil war, but a group of militias fighting to create a reality on the ground. Syria hosts over 1.5 million Iraqis from various backgrounds. No fighting took place between these sects in Syria. This proves that there are no inherent problems that make civil war inevitable… It is mainly the occupation that is behind the violence in Iraq.

Any talk on the interests of sects will not bear any fruit, and will not lead to development and unity in Iraq. Any constitution that is based on distributing interests based on sectarian divisions will not lead to stability. Al-taif constitution in Lebanon is a case in point.
 
Some in the Arab world might be waiting for the new US administration so they can decide their next steps on Iraq and other issues.
 
Iran:
There is a joint Israeli-US interest in creating an enemy of the Arabs out of Iran. We know that Iran has its interests [in the Arab world] and maybe there were Iranian mistakes in managing some issues. This does not justify looking at Iran as an enemy of the Arabs. I told Arab leaders who blame Syria for its relation with Iran that we have to judge this relationship case by case and not take an absolute stance.

 
Palestine:
As the president of the Arab summit this year, Syria is coordinating between Hamas and Abbas.
 
If Syria's relationship with Egypt was in a better state, we would have managed to find a solution for Gaza's closure.
 
We considered the Yemeni initiative to be a solid starting point, and Hamas told us that they are willing to go with this initiative all the way, but the other side was not enthusiastic.
 
I think that there is a veto against Palestinian reconciliation. Syria does not have direct methods to interact directly. 

Syria:
I'm optimistic, everyday our situation is improving while, Syria's enemies situations are getting complicated.
 
Syria is immune from the sectarian problems, because there is an agreement on the national stance between the people and the government.
 
Israel
Israel wants to normalization with the Arabs instead of peace.
 
War is a possibility now. It will depend on US interests. For example, Israel wanted to halt the war (in 2006) in Lebanon at one point in time, but the US forced it to continue fighting. We understand that a [Syrian-Israeli] war would be a demand by this US administration and we are preparing for the worst. However, we do not see it happening. After the last war on Lebanon, I noticed an increase in the nubmer of visits by western delegations [to Syria], especially Jewish ones. I noticed that the discussions' nature has changed dramatically from threats and pressure [on Syria] into seeking a way to peace. Some frankly said that the last war should speed up the process for reaching peace. Israelis have offered us secret negotiations and we rejected. We do not have anything to hide. 

I'm more optimistic than any time before.

 

———————–

Comments by Alex:

I think the obvious message from Syria is:

“Any initiative from our part would require establishing good relationships with the other external parties with influence in Lebanon such as the Saudis and the Egyptians.”

American, Egyptian and Saudi leaders are talking to anyone but Syria .. yet they want Syria and only Syria to solve the problems of Lebanon.

And they say that Lebanon is very important for them … but president Mubarak and King Abdullah (not to mention president Bush) do not want to meet with Assad.

King Abdullah even refused to meet with Lebanese speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri.

But he frequently meets with the President of Iran that many of his allies consider to be a dangerous man. And his media talking heads frequently express their country's disappointment in Assad's close relations with Iran.

withiran.jpg 

Also this week, President Mubarak met with King Abdullah … it was their own Arab summit. The summit of the clueless Arab leaders.

picture-5.png

In the mean time, a recent poll conducted in leading Arab states found President Assad to be the most popular Arab head of state.

Today Assad met with former President Jimmy Carter in Damascus. According to Haaretz "Carter is very upbeat"

 carter.JPG

 

Qadhafi at the Arab Summit: “We All Hate One Another.”

Qadhafi to Leaders at the Arab Summit: We All Hate One Another. The Americans Might Hang You All One Day Like They Hanged Saddam

Anyone who has not watched Muammar Qadhafi's speech at the Arab Summit in Damascus is in for a treat. This is an historic piece of theater by the the old jester.

Two Views on Hamas

Here are two views on Hamas and its Struggle printed by the Washington Post today. One by Hamas' Foreign Minister and the other by the editorial writers of the Post

Mahmoud al-ZaharNo Peace Without Hamas
By Mahmoud al-Zahar
Thursday, April 17, 2008; A23

GAZA — President Jimmy Carter's sensible plan to visit the Hamas leadership this week brings honesty and pragmatism to the Middle East while underscoring the fact that American policy has reached its dead end. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice acts as if a few alterations here and there would make the hideous straitjacket of apartheid fit better. While Rice persuades Israeli occupation forces to cut a few dozen meaningless roadblocks from among the more than 500 West Bank control points, these forces simultaneously choke off fuel supplies to Gaza; blockade its 1.5 million people; approve illegal housing projects on West Bank land; and attack Gaza City with F-16s, killing men, women and children. Sadly, this is "business as usual" for the Palestinians.

Last week's attack on the Nahal Oz fuel depot should not surprise critics in the West. Palestinians are fighting a total war waged on us by a nation that mobilizes against our people with every means at its disposal — from its high-tech military to its economic stranglehold, from its falsified history to its judiciary that "legalizes" the infrastructure of apartheid. Resistance remains our only option. Sixty-five years ago, the courageous Jews of the Warsaw ghetto rose in defense of their people. We Gazans, living in the world's largest open-air prison, can do no less.

The U.S.-Israeli alliance has sought to negate the results of the January 2006 elections, when the Palestinian people handed our party a mandate to rule. Hundreds of independent monitors, Carter among them, declared this the fairest election ever held in the Arab Middle East. Yet efforts to subvert our democratic experience include the American coup d'etat that created the new sectarian paradigm with Fatah and the continuing warfare against and enforced isolation of Gazans.

Now, finally, we have the welcome tonic of Carter saying what any independent, uncorrupted thinker should conclude: that no "peace plan," "road map" or "legacy" can succeed unless we are sitting at the negotiating table and without any preconditions.

Israel's escalation of violence since the staged Annapolis "peace conference" in November has been consistent with its policy of illegal, often deadly collective punishment — in violation of international conventions. Israeli military strikes on Gaza have killed hundreds of Palestinians since then with unwavering White House approval; in 2007 alone the ratio of Palestinians to Israelis killed was 40 to 1, up from 4 to 1 during the period from 2000 to 2005.

Only three months ago I buried my son Hussam, who studied finance at college and wanted to be an accountant; he was killed by an Israeli airstrike. In 2003, I buried Khaled — my first-born — after an Israeli F-16 targeting me wounded my daughter and my wife and flattened the apartment building where we lived, injuring and killing many of our neighbors. Last year, my son-in-law was killed.

Hussam was only 21, but like most young men in Gaza he had grown up fast out of necessity. When I was his age, I wanted to be a surgeon; in the 1960s, we were already refugees, but there was no humiliating blockade then. But now, after decades of imprisonment, killing, statelessness and impoverishment, we ask: What peace can there be if there is no dignity first? And where does dignity come from if not from justice?

Our movement fights on because we cannot allow the foundational crime at the core of the Jewish state — the violent expulsion from our lands and villages that made us refugees — to slip out of world consciousness, forgotten or negotiated away. Judaism — which gave so much to human culture in the contributions of its ancient lawgivers and modern proponents of tikkun olam — has corrupted itself in the detour into Zionism, nationalism and apartheid.

A "peace process" with Palestinians cannot take even its first tiny step until Israel first withdraws to the borders of 1967; dismantles all settlements; removes all soldiers from Gaza and the West Bank; repudiates its illegal annexation of Jerusalem; releases all prisoners; and ends its blockade of our international borders, our coastline and our airspace permanently. This would provide the starting point for just negotiations and would lay the groundwork for the return of millions of refugees. Given what we have lost, it is the only basis by which we can start to be whole again.

I am eternally proud of my sons and miss them every day. I think of them as fathers everywhere, even in Israel, think of their sons — as innocent boys, as curious students, as young men with limitless potential — not as "gunmen" or "militants." But better that they were defenders of their people than parties to their ultimate dispossession; better that they were active in the Palestinian struggle for survival than passive witnesses to our subjugation.

History teaches us that everything is in flux. Our fight to redress the material crimes of 1948 is scarcely begun, and adversity has taught us patience. As for the Israeli state and its Spartan culture of permanent war, it is all too vulnerable to time, fatigue and demographics: In the end, it is always a question of our children and those who come after us.

Mahmoud al-Zahar, a surgeon, is a founder of Hamas. He is foreign minister in the government of Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, which was elected in January 2006.

 

Wash Post EDITORIAL: Zahar Is a Terrorist
The former president, on what he says is a road to peace, embraces Hamas terrorists.
Thursday, April 17, 2008; A22

ON THE OPPOSITE page today we publish an article by the "foreign minister" of Hamas, Mahmoud al-Zahar, that drips with hatred for Israel, and with praise for former president Jimmy Carter. We believe Mr. Zahar's words are worth publishing because they provide some clarity about the group he helps to lead, a group that Mr. Carter contends is worthy of being included in the Middle East peace process. Mr. Carter himself is holding what appears to be a series of meetings with Hamas leaders during a tour of the Middle East. He met one militant in the West Bank town of Ramallah on Tuesday and was reportedly planning to meet Mr. Zahar in Cairo today before traveling to Damascus for an appointment with Khaled Meshal, Hamas's top leader.

Mr. Zahar lauds Mr. Carter for the "welcome tonic" of saying that no peace process can succeed "unless we are sitting at the negotiating table and without any preconditions." Yet Mr. Zahar has his own preconditions: Before any peace process can "take even its first tiny step," he says, Israel must withdraw to the 1967 borders and evacuate Jerusalem while preparing for the "return of millions of refugees." In fact, as Mr. Zahar makes clear, Hamas is not at all interested in a negotiated peace with the Jewish state, whose existence it refuses to accept: "Our fight to redress the material crimes of 1948 is scarcely begun," he concludes.

In that fight, no act of terrorism is out of bounds for the Hamas leader, who endorses the group's recent ambush of Israeli civilians working at a fuel depot that supplies Gaza. The "total war" of which he speaks was initiated and has been sustained by Hamas itself through its deliberate targeting of civilians, such as the residents of the Israeli town of Sderot, who suffer daily rocket attacks.

These facts would hardly need restating were it not for actors such as Mr. Carter, who portray Hamas as rational and reasonable. Hamas is "perfectly willing" for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas "to represent them in all direct negotiations with the Israelis, and they also maintain that they will accept any agreement that he brokers with the Israelis" provided a referendum is held on it, the former president told the newspaper Haaretz. Compare that claim with Mr. Zahar's own words on the opposite page. In fact, Mr. Zahar has called Mr. Abbas "a traitor" for negotiating with Israel — a label that is, in the Palestinian context, an incitement to murder.

Mr. Carter justifies his meetings with familiar arguments about the value of dialogue with enemies. But he misses the point. Contacts between enemies can be useful: Israel is legendary for such negotiations, and even now it is engaged in back-channel bargaining with Hamas through Egypt. But it is one thing to communicate pragmatically, and quite another to publicly and unconditionally grant recognition and political sanction to a leader or a group that advocates terrorism, mass murder or the extinction of another state. That is what Mr. Carter is doing by lending what is left of his prestige to an avowed terrorist such as Khaled Meshal — or Mahmoud al-Zahar.

The People’s Army of Hizbullah Attracts Sunnis and Christians

The People's Army of Hizbullah
Ma'ariv by Jacky Hugi — (Thanks to Timur Goksel, the man in Lubnan)

Quietly and efficiently, Hizbullah has turned into the Lebanese 'people's army' in the past months. The Shiite organization has established special units for Sunnis, Christians and Druze, and now they have even been joined by former SLA (South Lebanon Army) fighters, who were loyal to Israel.

The details were revealed by the US-based Christian Science Monitor, in an investigative report conducted by its correspondent in Beirut. According to the investigative report, "Hizbullah militants regroup amid war jitters," carried out by British journalist Nicholas Blanford, service in Hizbullah is not limited to Shiites only. Special units made up of other ethnic groups, known as saraya ('companies'), have been set up within the organization and are mainly intended to serve as reserve forces.

These non-Shiite activists, whose number was not stated, join Hizbullah of their own volition. Hizbullah thus expands its ranks and enjoys great legitimacy in Lebanese society. For the Sunni community, this is a problematic development since its leaders have traditionally been considered to be opposed to Hizbullah. The Christians, in contrast, have become closer to the Shiites in recent years and some of them have even become their allies.

'I assume that this was a result of pressure that was put on them,' said a former SLA officer who lives in the Galilee panhandle, who was surprised by the report. 'After all, Hizbullah controls everything there and it has the ability to threaten people. In addition, their livelihood is also at stake, and the economic situation there is also a pressure factor.'

Hizbullah's Vision

If this is not information aimed at psychological warfare, and Hizbullah has indeed recruited young Sunnis, Christians and Druze, then it is an interesting development. If it should become stronger and branch out into other realms, the day is not far when Hizbullah will turn into a multi-ethnic organization under Shiite control, and will effectively realize its plan of conquering the hearts of the Lebanese people by peaceful means.

Anyone who has been closely watching the events inside Lebanon in recent years will not be surprised. Many Lebanese, irrespective of religious affiliation, give Hizbullah very high marks. After decades of weak and atrophied Sunni-Christian control of Lebanese politics, Nasrallah and his men represent a refreshing governmental model for them: Modest living, care for the weak, efficient management, a spirit of volunteerism and above all lack of corruption. All this, without religious coercion and while lending an attentive ear to non-Shiites.

 The gaps dividing between Hizbullah and large sectors of [Lebanese] society are still very great, but it is no secret that many Christians admire Nasrallah for his strength and moral character, particularly after surviving the war in the summer of 2006. Had we said this only ten years ago, it would have raised eyebrows. Today, it is an established fact. Hizbullah is well aware of this, and presents an intriguing alternative to the public. On the day the order is given, when the people will have to choose what is best for them, [Hizbullah] hopes to be there before all the rest.

One imminent test is already just around the corner. These is the Lebanese parliamentary elections, which are due to be held in exactly one year. The parliament, which is elected by the public in the ballot boxes, will appoint the government. Hizbullah hopes to make use of its improved image in the general public to further its standing in the legislature and advance into the government, all in a legitimate manner. From there, Nasrallah and his men will aspire to change the constitution and give the Shiites slices of the governmental pie, which will properly express their share of the population. This vision is not immediate, and it may take time before it materializes, but it is not imaginary.

Conspiracy of Silence

Ma'ariv by Jacky Hugi (op-ed) — Two whole months have passed since unknown figures assassinated Imad Mughniyah, commander of Hizbullah's jihad wing, on Syrian soil. Everyone is waiting for a Syrian response, or at least an announcement about the conclusions of the investigation. But Damascus remains silent.

 The Syrian silence is not self-evident. One could expect a country whose sovereignty was crudely violated to respond in some way. This is true for any country, and particularly for the proud Syrian regime, which took another blow five months earlier, the reverberations of which have not yet subsided: The mysterious strike by IAF jets on September 6.

In both cases, the Syrians preferred to keep a low profile, to restrain their response and direct feeble accusations at Israel. The reason is Bashar Assad's dilemma. If he accuses someone, he will have to react. And if he reacts, he could become entangled in another blow, particularly if Israel is the party in question. Assad, unlike Nasrallah, he has something to lose in such a clash. He is not the leader of belligerent militias, but the leader of an orderly state, which is exposed and vulnerable. An Israeli chain reaction would undermine his stability even further.

From the first moment, Syria understood the complexity of its situation. Therefore, it maintained a thunderous silence. The revelations of a member of Hizbullah's Shura Council, in the Al-Haqiqa newspaper, which were published this week in the Israeli press as well, show the depth of Syria's embarrassment. The senior source related that after Assad learned that Nasrallah and his men had succeeded in smuggling Mughniyah's body under the nose of Syrian intelligence, on the night of the assassination, Assad demanded that Nasrallah remain silent. The latter objected, and was the first to tell the world about the fall of his friend.

The same rules from the Mughniyah affair apply to the attack on the secret installation in September. Assad knows full well what was attacked and who was behind the operation, but he is not able and does not want to get into a head-on collision with Israel. The truth is that he does not really have to. Hamas, to which he extends his sponsorship, punishes Israel every day.

Official Jerusalem kept quiet in both cases, despite the fact that the Americans blabbed, for their own reasons, after the strike in September. According to reports from the past week, Israel applied pressure to Washington so that it would not reveal details from that night in a discussion in Congress. The Americans have their own interest in clarifying the truth in this issue, due to the suspicion that North Korea was involved in the Syrian nuclear program.

In its care to maintain silence, Israel is assisting Assad in the effort to enable Arab public opinion to forget both affairs. The result is a rare convergence of interests between Damascus and Jerusalem. Each of them is keeping silent, so as not to force Assad to be shamed publicly and forced into an act of revenge. In the meantime, we can certainly send him a bouquet of flowers.