Leaving Baghdad: The View From Syria
By Ahmad Fadam

(Self-portrait by Ahmad Fadam )

Ahmad Fadam was a member of the Iraqi staff in the newsroom of The New York Times in Baghdad. He left Baghdad in May to take up a visiting fellowship at the University of North Carolina. He will continue to contribute to the Baghdad Bureau blog from there.

After spending three weeks in Syria with my family, I can say that it was a very strange feeling to be in that country. It is so similar to what Iraq used to be when Saddam was president – the same order, the same political system and of course the same government and Baath party slogans, like to stand against the colonists and Zionism and liberating Palestine, which I used to hate…. A cab driver named Abu Zaki said to me: “We used to hate Bashar al-Assad, we used to hate having the son sitting on the chair and ruling after his father [Hafez al-Assad] but after what we saw happening in Iraq, we started thinking ‘We don’t want to be in the same situation as you, and thank God we are not.

This means that if what happened to Iraq had happened instead to some other Arab country, then maybe Saddam would still be alive. The Iraqis would have said that bad is better than worse, and accepted what they had. They would have said that dictatorship is not so bad after all.

Another Syrian I met in the market, Kamal, said to me, “Thank God we don’t have sectarian way of thinking like you do, this is a blessing.” Yes, the sectarian violence the people hear about is something else that made them hate the idea of bringing the so-called new democracy to the Middle East.

But still. This doesn’t mean that we – the Iraqis – are very welcome here in Syria. There are thousands of Iraqi families living here. Most of them have fled the country because of the sectarian violence. They thought that by coming to Syria or to any other country, they would have a chance of starting a new life again.

I am not saying that the Syrian government is treating the Iraqis badly; they also have their system and order to maintain, and they are better than many of the other Arab countries that closed their borders in the face of the Iraqis.

But what happened is that the Syrian government forced Iraqis to get visas, in order to stop the continuous waves of arrivals. This has left many Iraqis …..

Sarkozi Sends Invite to Assad to Visit Paris and "Turn a New Page"

Ibrahim Hamidi of Al-Hayat, an independent Saudi owned newspaper, wrote on June 10: “Concurring sources announced to Al-Hayat yesterday that the French ambassador to Damascus delivered to Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallem a “written invitation” from French president, Nicholas Sarkozy, to his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Al-Asad, to participate in the summit dedicated to launching the Mediterranean project, which will be held in Paris on the 13th of July, and also to attend the celebration to be held on the following day to mark the anniversary of the French revolution.

Olmert signals readiness for talks with Lebanon Daily Star

Washington Post Editorial: Israel's Syria Card: 2008-06-10

Syria plays down chances of direct talks with Israel
Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:38pm EDT
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis

DAMASCUS (Reuters) – A senior Syrian official said on Tuesday no direct negotiations will be held with Israel until it recognizes what Damascus regards as requirements for a deal.

Indirect peace talks between Syria and Israel are expected to resume soon in Turkey, which has been mediating between the two sides since last year.

The Damascus government and Israel have kept secret the details of the talks. Syria seeks full return of the occupied Golan Heights and Israel has linked a peace agreement to Syria distancing itself from Iran and severing ties with Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Palestinian group Hamas.

Israel occupied the Golan Heights, a water-rich plateau, in the Middle East war four decades ago. It annexed the territory in the 1980s in a move declared null and void by the United Nations Security Council.

"I think it is too early to resume direct talks. There are conditions," Deputy Foreign Minister Fayssal al-Mekdad told reporters.

"I hope Israel responds to the requirements of peace, which are the end of the occupation of Palestine and the establishment of a Palestinian state, restoration of the Syrian Golan and pull out of remaining occupied Lebanese territory," he added.

Bush Wins EU Backing for More Iranian Bank Sanctions: By Edwin Chen and Patrick Donahue, Bloomberg

June 10 (Bloomberg) — President George W. Bush won backing from the European Union for tighter sanctions against Iranian banks, another step aimed at hampering Iran's ability to build nuclear weapons.

European Commission President Jose Barroso, meeting with Bush in Slovenia, agreed to take “additional measures'' to ensure that “Iranian banks cannot abuse the international banking system to support proliferation and terrorism,'' according to a joint statement released at the end of the talks.

Pentagon blocked Cheney's attack on Iran – Gareth Porter, Asia Times

United States Vice President Dick Cheney's plan in August 2007 to launch airstrikes against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps was blocked by the Pentagon over concerns about Iran's retaliation capabilities. But Cheney's close alliance with Centcom chief General David Petraeus gives him the option of ignoring his opponents in Washington during the final months of the George W Bush administration.

Hardliners Assume Leadership of Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood (Jamestown report)

In an internal election for the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood’s top position, Hamam Sa’id, a senior member known as a hawk within the organization, defeated incumbent leader Salem Falahat (Jordan Times, May 2). The new general regulator of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood is a critic of the government and seeks to one day implement Shari’a law in Jordan as well as sever Jordan’s diplomatic ties with Israel (AP, May 2). Sa’id’s ascension places the organization’s hardliners firmly in control. Sa’id, anticipating early skepticism, maintains that the Muslim Brotherhood will continue its “historic” role in Jordanian political life (Al-Dustur, May 2). Despite Sa’id’s assurances, many observers believe that his victory signals a tilt in favor of the hardliners. Furthermore, Sa’id represents the first leader of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood to claim Palestinian origin, indicating a dramatic shift within the organization’s balance of power (Jordan Times, May 4). Such roots, accompanied by the connections several other leaders maintain with Hamas, worry some observers and government officials that Hamas may be greatly expanding its influence into the “East Bank,” despite having been banned from Jordan in 1999.

CNN, here: Fath al-Islam's leader Absi speaks live on TV, attacking Hizbullah and Hariri.

Olmert calls for Israel-Lebanon talks

JERUSALEM (AFP) — Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Tuesday suggested holding peace talks with Lebanon, following last month’s announcement of Israel’s indirect Turkish-mediated negotiations with Syria.

“I would have been glad if after the announcement of the talks with Syria the Lebanese government would announce its willingness to open direct bilateral talks with Israel,” a senior official quoted Olmert as saying in a cabinet meeting.

“I see many advantages in this,” he said.

Syria is positioning itself to become a player in the Middle East's lucrative sugar market, hoping that the opening of a new processing plant will allow it to cater to the region's sweet tooth. A $90m sugar refinery at Jindar in the province of Homs was opened on May 14, marking a new phase in the Syrian sugar industry. The plant is the first major agriculture processing partnership between the Syrian private sector and international investors.

Operating as the National Sugar Company, 51% of the refinery is held by Mohammed Najib Assaf, the Syrian chairman of the company, while minority shareholders include US agribusiness giant Cargill and Brazilian sugar producer Crystalsev.

With an annual capacity of 1m tonnes, which the partners say could be doubled in the future to meet regional export demands, the Jindar refinery is one of the largest of its kind in the world.

Cargill will provide management and sales expertise for the project,

Syria: conversations in a pariah state
by John Casey on Open Democracy
The layers of religious faith, the shards of political frustration and the surprise of everyday encounters help compose John Casey's rich, allusive portrait of Syria.

Egypt's Pres Avoids Mini-summit To Shun Syrian Counterpart
2008-06-10 (New York) Dow Jones

CAIRO (AP)–Government officials say Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak will stay away from an Arab mini-summit in Libya to avoid an encounter with Syria's president. The mini-summit in Tripoli Tuesday was initiated by Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi to work out an Arab response to a French proposal to set up a European, Middle Eastern and North African strategic bloc. The officials say Mubarak has dodged the summit to avoid a reconciliation
with Sryia's Bashar Assad.

'New' US ambassador to Turkey, James Jeffrey, a "regime-changer" & co-chair with Elliott Abrams of the now defunct ISOG … From "friday-lunch-club"

I guess "Regime-Changers" are much more resilient than we all thought them to be … Laura Rosen, here & here

"…Jeffrey is getting his reward for long hours of service at the White House: President Bush nominated him last week to be U.S. ambassador to Turkey…..

The ISOG (Iran-Syria Policy Operations Group), which had been co-chaired by NSC's Elliott Abrams and the state department's James Jeffrey, the principal deputy assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, had four working groups: nuclear issues, counter-terrorism, regional affairs, and public diplomacy and democracy ……."

Elizabeth Cheney's waning horror show: Rami Khouri hits the ball out of the park in his parsing of Elizabeth Cheney's remarks at the AIPAC meeting in Washington. Here is the meat:

Here's a particularly representative quotation: "In my view, this administration has gotten it right when we have been bold, when we have been decisive, when we have been focused, when we have used our military force when necessary."

The amazing but troubling thing about this sort of thinking in Washington is that it perpetuates an aura of toughness, while disregarding the catastrophic consequences to America's standing and influence abroad as a direct result of these failed policies that rely so heavily on guns — instead of sensible analysis and quality diplomacy. Elizabeth Cheney is like an intellectual and ideological cluster bomb that keeps exploding, and killing and injuring people, years after it has been dropped and fallen out of sight.

She is not alone, of course, for her views accurately reflect those of a once robust population of neo-conservative political leaders and obsequious technocrats in Washington, which has been severely depleted by defections, indictments, and dismissals. The neo-cons' greatest legacy, to date, has been a collective failure that many of them simply refuse to grasp.

Here's another Cheney gem from her AIPAC remarks: "I think that getting back to a situation where our enemies in the region understand that America will stand up for its friends, that America will stand up for its principles and that we have red lines is critically important."

This sort of blindness to the realities of the real world is not inherited from her father, Vice President Dick Cheney, who holds similar views. No, this is self-made madness. The misguided nonsense that she espouses is so profoundly wrong and so intensely inane that it has to be generated by a life-long process of adult intellectual regression and political chicanery. Her father will not do it, so someone among her circle of friends should take her aside and quietly tell her that while she gets the accolades of the AIPAC audience, virtually the entire rest of the world reacts to this sort of performance with a combination of personal embarrassment for her, and deep political disdain for her capacity to insult us with this sort of blind buffoonery.

The reality is precisely the opposite of what she portrays. The United States' insistence on using power unilaterally in the Middle East, and "standing up" for its friends by stoking domestic battles and mini-civil wars in the Middle East, has turned the region into a cauldron of intemperance and violence. It is precisely when the United States has been "bold, decisive and focused" that it has generated enormous resistance to its policies throughout the region, put its allies in more vulnerable situations, strengthened the forces of Islamist militancy, stoked the furnace of terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and even given democracy a bad name.

It is incomprehensible to me that someone like Elizabeth Cheney, whose responsibilities included promoting democracy and human rights, would argue against holding elections in the Palestinian territories. Now she argues that it was a mistake to push for the elections, when in fact the real mistake was for Washington to spinelessly fall in line with Israeli dictates and boycott the victorious Hamas party.

The right thing to do would be to honor the essence of the democratic process, and bring Hamas and Israel into an honorable diplomatic process that aspires to achieve the equal rights of both people. Only once did I meet Elizabeth Cheney while she was in office and watch her perform, and what I saw and heard then was frightening in her misdiagnosis of the cause of the tensions in the Middle East, and brutal in its misdirected intellectual violence. It is saddening to see her persist in this same vein. She is among the last of a dying breed, these few performers on a horror show stage that has been largely deserted by its public audience, and thankfully is soon to be shut down forever.

She's busy promoting her first documentary and her seventh No. 1 album, but the world's most famous kabbalah devotee already has her sights set on a new project: a documentary about the Arab-Israeli impasse.

A French firm is to build two big cement factories in Syria worth $1.2 billion. It breaks the western embargo on doing big deals in Syria, imposed since the extension of Lahoud's presidency in 2004. Assad is to travel to Paris once the new cabinet is settled in Lebanon, perhaps for Bastille day in Paris. This should bring down what barriers remain in Europe to doing business with Syria. It will be interesting to see what effect this will have on international banks, which are reluctant to participate in Syrian deals because of the various layers of US sanctions.

Syrie: Lafarge remporte deux contrats de 1,2 md USD pour deux cimenteries
08/06/2008-[16:57] – AFP

DAMAS, 8 juin 2008 (AFP) – La Syrie a signé avec le géant français Lafarge deux contrats de près de 1,2 milliard de dollars pour la construction de deux cimenteries en Syrie, a indiqué dimanche le quotidien officiel As-Saoura.

“La Syrie a signé deux importants contrats avec le géant français Lafarge pour la construction de deux cimenteries à Damas et à Alep (nord-ouest) d’un coût atteignant près de 1,2 md de dollars”, a affirmé le journal citant un responsable du gouvernement français. Ces deux usines, dont la construction doit commencer en 2008, “sont parmi les investissements étrangers les plus importants en Syrie”, selon le journal. En 2007, les exportations de la Syrie vers la France se sont élevées à 700 millions de dollars, alors que les exportations de la France vers la Syrie ont atteint 500 millions de dollars, selon as-Saoura. As-Saoura évoque aussi un projet français pour “agrandir et exploiter le port de Lattaquié”, dans le nord-ouest de la Syrie, ainsi que des projets du groupe de distribution français Carrefour pour ouvrir ses premiers supermarchés en Syrie. Une usine de fromage Bel-Syrie, construite par le groupe français Bel et inaugurée en septembre 2005, avait constitué le premier investissement français direct en Syrie, hors domaine pétrolier.

Tough Words From This Cheney on U.S. Mideast Policy
By Michael Abramowitz
Monday, June 9, 2008; Page A15
Wash Post

Looks as though another former Bush administration official is off the reservation. But don't expect the kind of fierce counterattack the White House and its friends waged recently against former press secretary Scott McClellan after the release of his tell-all book.

On a panel at last week's American Israel Political Affairs Committee convention, former State Department official Elizabeth Cheney described the Annapolis peace process as "misguided," said the United States had been "fundamentally mistaken" to push for elections in Gaza and suggested that the Bush administration has not been tough enough with Syria.

"In my view, this administration has gotten it right when we have been bold, when we have been decisive, when we have been focused, when we have used our military force when necessary," Cheney said at the conference, according to a recording posted on the AIPAC Web site. "Where we have been less effective and less successful is when we have been unfortunately not so bold, when we have not held [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad to account for the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, for the killing of American soldiers inside Iraq, for his support to Hezbollah."

Cheney is, of course, a private citizen who until early 2006 worked as a principal deputy assistant secretary of state in the Near East Bureau before leaving to have her fifth child. She is also close to her father, Vice President Cheney — so much so that when she was at State, people assumed her views reflected his perspective.

Whether they do now is unknown. But judging from her remarks at AIPAC, Liz is one Cheney unhappy with key elements of U.S. Mideast policy, from Lebanon and the peace process to how the White House dealt with elections in the Palestinian territories. She was also critical of Israel's performance in the 2006 war in Lebanon, citing "Israel's inability, unwillingness to do what was necessary . . . to fundamentally deal a blow to Hezbollah."

"I think that getting back to a situation where our enemies in the region understand that America will stand up for its friends, that America will stand up for its principles and that we have red lines is critically important," Cheney told the friendly audience at AIPAC. "When those red lines aren't there, when our enemies like Iran and Syria begin to believe that they can act with impunity, you see situations like you have got in Lebanon today — where Hezbollah now has a veto over that government, where Hezbollah will be able, I fear, to significantly continue its efforts to rearm in southern Lebanon, continue to threaten Israel and allow Iran a real chokehold on the region."

Cheney offered critiques in a number of key areas. One was the decision, which went all the way up to President Bush, to push Israel to allow elections in the Palestinian territories, which ultimately led to Hamas taking power in Gaza.

"The United States was fundamentally mistaken to push for those Palestinian elections in Gaza," Cheney said, drawing applause. "I think that at the time there wasn't anybody that I spoke to in the Palestinian government . . . or the Israeli government who thought those elections were a good idea."

At another point, Cheney appeared to suggest that it was a mistake for the United States to invite Syria to participate in last November's Annapolis conference: "It makes it much easier for the Europeans, for example, to say, 'Well, look, if you're not isolating Syria, if you are inviting the Syrians to Annapolis for a peace conference, why should we isolate the Syrians?' "

The Syrian Press (All4Syria.org) translated Saturday's SC post in which a high Israeli intelligence source is quote claiming that Bashar al-Asad is in control and supported by the Syrian street for not selling out the interests of his country.

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– 08/06/2008

??? – (???? ?????)

??? ???? ????? ????? ??? ???????? ???? ????? ?????? ???????? ????? ??????? (???? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????????) ????? ????? ??? ?????? ?? "????? ????????? ????????? ????? ???????" ?????? ?????? ???? ????? ???? ???? ????????? ???????? ???????? ???? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ?????.
????? ??????? ?? ??????? ??????????? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ?? ????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ?? ????? ?? ???? ??? ?? ????. ?????? ??????? ?? ?????? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ?? ???? ???? ???? ???? ??? ?? ?????….
?? ???? ??????? ????????? ?? ??????? ?????? ?? ???? ?? ???? ????? ??? ???? ??? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ??????? ????????.
????? ??????? ?????? ????? ??????? ????????????? ??????????? ??? ????? ????? ???? ?????? ??????? ???? ???? ???????? ???? ??? ?? "????" ????? ?????.

Upbeat in Syria
Jun 6th 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire
Why President Bashar Assad is feeling cock-a-hoop

Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, is reaping substantial benefits, both economic and political, from the Lebanese political deal agreed in Doha last month, for which he has modestly claimed much of the credit. The ruler of Qatar visited him in Damascus to thank him for his role in the Doha agreement, and Mr Assad followed this up with visits to the UAE and Kuwait, from which he obtained generous promises of aid, including 500,000 tonnes of wheat to be purchased on Syria’s behalf by Abu Dhabi. The rehabilitation of his political reputation—which had been tarnished by association with brutal events in Lebanon and repression at home—is set to be completed by an appearance at the Mediterranean summit to be hosted by France’s president Nicolas Sarkozy on July 13th.

Assad to the rescue

What has Mr Assad done to deserve this unaccustomed adulation? By his own account, he has done no more than to remain consistent, waiting patiently for others to see sense. At a forum in Dubai Mr Assad said that when the Doha talks seemed to be on the brink of collapse, the ruler of Qatar called on Syria to provide some suggestions. “The ideas we provided were the exact same ideas we provided the French last year when they were mediating”, Mr Assad said, according to a transcript provided on the Syria Comment blog. “However, the French then did not comprehend or did not implement the ideas correctly.” He attributed this failing on the part of the French government to the mistaken assumption that Syria could speak and act on behalf of its allies in Lebanon, whereas in fact Syria was merely interested in furnishing practical solutions.

Mr Sarkozy had declared at the end of December that he would have no further dealing with the Syrian government until he was convinced that Mr Assad was prepared to allow Lebanon to have a consensus president. Following the election of Michel Suleiman as president of Lebanon, Mr Sarkozy has been true to his word, and has been in contact with Mr Assad once more, calling him on the telephone and dispatching two of his senior advisers to Damascus, presumably with an invitation to the Paris summit.

Sarkozy’s prize

If Syria is to be reclassified as a force for stability in the Middle East, France clearly wants to derive some credit. The benefits for Mr Sarkozy include both securing a potentially valuable new recruit to his Mediterranean union project and the prospect of major commercial deals—a French consultant is working on engineering designs for the Damascus metro, a project that would appear to be tailor-made for French contractors, and the Toulouse-based Airbus Industrie could be in line for a contract to re-equip Syria’s national airline, whose fleet is now down to just six serviceable aircraft, according to the transport minister, Yarob Badr.

Economic considerations are likely to have played an important part in Syria’s recent push for international respectability—which has included embarking on peace talks with Israel and inviting the International Atomic Energy Agency (somewhat belatedly) to visit Syria and examine US claims that the building bombed by Israel last September was intended to house a covert nuclear reactor. The Syrian economy performed relatively well in 2005 and 2006 thanks to the beneficial effects of the Gulf boom, good harvests and capital inflows from Iraqi refugees. However, the picture does not look so bright now following two poor harvests, further depletion in oil production and a drop-off in Iraqi funds, as refugees have by now largely used up their savings….. (Read the rest)

Economic and Political Isolation of Syria is Crumbling very Fast

India's Ex-import bank extends first loan to Syria, whose imports from India expanded 45% last year.  

Syria, Interpol To Co-Host Damascus Counterterrorism Conference; MEMRI translation: Source: Teshreen, Syria, June 8, 2008

On June 18-19, Damascus will host a conference on fighting terror in the Middle East and North Africa.

The conference, a joint venture of the Syrian Interior Ministry and the Interpol general secretariat, will be attended by Interpol Director-General Ronald K. Nobel. Invitees include representatives of countries dealing with counterterrorism in the Middle East and North Africa.

LA Times New forces fraying US-Saudi oil ties

Surging prices, along with a weak dollar and an oil-thirsty Asia, have blunted America's leverage with the key oil producer and helped sour the two nations' relationship

Surging prices, along with a weak dollar and an oil-thirsty Asia, have blunted America's leverage with the key oil producer and helped sour the two nations' relationship

David Kaiser, History Unfolding: A must read on President Bush's speech in Israel.

A Presidential speech

Paging through the New York Times, I found that a certain Michael Vlock of Orange, Connecticut had purchased not one, but two full pages of the first section to reprint President Bush's entire speech to the Knesset. He argued that despite the controversy provoked by the speech in the United States, almost no Americans had had the opportunity to read it all. I did. …

President Bush is noted for his ability to speak in code, particularly to religious supporters. His use of words that will be understood by Christian Evangelicals has often been remarked upon, but before the Knesset, he did the same with respect to religious Zionists. The founding of Israel in 1948, he said, was "more than the establishment of a new country. It was the redemption of an ancient promise given to Abraham and Moses and David–a homeland for the chosen people Eretz Israel. [sic]" In short, he invoked the Old Testament as the authority for redrawing the map of the Middle East. Although he may not know it, a minority of religious Zionists in Israel (including, in the 1950s, Menachem Begin) have long argued that the Israelis must settle all the lands that the Lord promised Abraham, including not only the West but the East Bank of the Jordan River. (In his book on peace with Egypt, Ezer Weizmann, a more secular Zionist, reported that Begin in the 1950s wrote articles with titles like "Amman Too Shall be Ours.") Certainly they will draw comfort from the President's speech.

 .

That, however, was not all. In the very next sentence the President linked the Zionist enterprise to the settling of North America by Europeans in the 17th century. "The alliance between our governments is unbreakable, yet the source of our friendship runs deeper than any treaty." [That in itself is a fascinating sentence–does the President actually know that there is in fact no treaty of alliance between the United States and Israel?] "It is grounded in the shared spirit of our people, the bonds of the Book, the ties of the soul. When William Bradford stepped off the Mayflower in 1620, he quoted the words of Jeremiah: 'Come let us declare in Zion the word of God.' The founders of my country saw a promised new land and bestowed upon their towns names like Bethlehem and New Canaan."

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Now the President has history on his side here: that was indeed how those original settlers saw themselves. But in succeeding centuries, as more and more people of different religions (and of no religion at all) settled in the United States, we obviously abandoned such a vision in favor of a nation and a world based upon impartial laws, in which religion became a private, though protected, matter. To link the United States and Israel as two nations acting out God's will on earth strikes me as the perfect mirror image of Osama Bin Laden's call for Jihad against the Zionist-Crusader alliance–as well as the perfect confirmation of Bin Laden's propaganda.

"Occupiers who interfere in Iraq's affairs through their military and security might … are the main problems," Iran's state television quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as saying Monday.

Khamenei said Iraqis have to "think of a solution to free" themselves from the U.S. military. Though he did not explicitly mention the security agreement, he said Iraqis _ not Americans _ must decide the fate of their country.

Sarkozy highlights push to reconciliation, support for LAF during visit to Beirut 

Dividing the Spoils in Lebanon 

Sami Moubayed, the indomitable, has this to say about the latest on the Lebanese Cabinet slice up.

According to the Doha Agreement, the March 14 Coalition, which commands a parliamentary majority, will hold 16 of the cabinet's 30-seats (including the sovereign post of Minister of Finance). The opposition will have 11 (including that of Foreign Affairs) and President Suleiman, who is trying to appear as a neutral third party, will get to name three ministers. Two of them will be the ministers of interior and defense. These new presidential powers, unheard of after the Taif Accords, entitle him to appoint a Maronite at the Ministry of Interior, a Greek Orthodox at the Ministry of Defense, and a Catholic in any post he sees fit.

Suleiman's wishes, of finishing before Friday, might not materialize—at least not in time for Sarkozy's visit—given the tremendous variety of disagreement over distribution of cabinet seats. One of the clauses agreed to at the Doha Conference was that neither the Hizbullah-led opposition, or the March 14 Coalition, would walk out on this new government, regardless of how strong political disagreements are with Siniora. This was to avoid repeating what happened in 2006, when six ministers from Hizbullah and its sister party Amal, walked out on Siniora, making his cabinet un-constitutional. The opposition immediately called on him to step down, claiming that the cabinet was illegal because it no longer represented the Shiites. To avoid this, all parties have agreed that the Sunnis will name a Shiite minister, so that even if Hizbullah and Amal ministers resign, the cabinet will continue to have a Shiite member and not be written off as un-constitutional. This means that the Shiites (who get a total of five seats) get to name a Sunni minister as well, and a Druze.

One of the stumbling blocks facing all parties is the portfolio of Defense. Suleiman wants the job for current minister Elias al-Murr. Earlier he had toyed with the idea of naming one of his comrades in the Lebanese Army (he had served as Army Commander in 1998-2008) as Minister, but his advisors strongly advised him against that, claiming that public opinion will accuse him of militarizing the cabinet. General Michel Aoun, who remains not-too-thrilled with the Doha Agreement (because it denied him his last chance to become president and doesn't give him a 'sovereignty' ministry) wants to make his right-hand-man Issam Abu Jamra, Minister of Defense. Since Abu Jamra is also a retired officer, it has now been settled that if the Ministry of Defense goes to a officer, then the Ministry of Interior will go to a civilian, probably, a veteran and respectable civilian (who is yet to be named).

Saad al-Harriri, the leader of the parliamentary majority, is opposed to relinquishing the Ministries of Telecommunications and Justice (both of which were held since 2005 by a member of March 14). He also refuses that anybody but Fouad al-Siniora himself becomes Minister of Finance, a post Siniora had held several times during the years of Rafiq al-Harriri. Additionally there are six seats in the cabinet allocated for Maronites (two for Aoun and three for Samir Gagegea and ex-President Amin Gemayel combined). Aoun also wants the Ministry of Health, a post that is coveted by Amal, the party of Aoun's ally, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Berri is telling Aoun to look elsewhere, advising that he should seek the Ministry of Finance for his bloc, and take it away from the Harriri team. Aoun also wants to make Elias Skaff, the head of the Zahle bloc in Parliament, the Minister of Public Works and has proposed Druze leader Emir Talal Arslan as Minister of the Displaced. The latter issue needs to be approved personally by Walid Jumblatt, a historical rival (and relative) of the Arslan family. To date, Jumblatt has surprisingly not opposed making Arslan minister, noting Arslan's offer to protect Jumblatt during the violent events that rocked Beirut and the mountains in mid-May 2008. Going further than anybody expected, Jumblatt has even agreed to remove two controversial figures (to whom Hizbullah is categorically opposed) being Marwan Hamadeh, the outgoing Minister of Telecommunications, and Ghazi al-Aridi, the Minister of Information.

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Another major stumbling bloc is the Lebanese Forces (LF) whose leaders insist on making their commander, former warlord Samir Gagegea, a minister in the Siniora cabinet. That has been vetoed mainly by the Tripoli bloc loyal to former Prime Minister Omar Karameh, which is opposed to March 14 and pro-Syrian. The elder statesmen was enraged, since Gagegea has been convicted of murdering his brother Rashid Karameh, another prime minister, in 1988.

Another Christian leader having his eyes set on cabinet office is ex-President Gemayel, who wants to become Minister of Industry to replace his slain son, Pierre. If that does not happen, then he would nominate his son Sami for the job. The other branch of the Gemayel family, headed by his brother's wife Solang, wants to start grooming his nephew Nadim (who is the son of slain president elect Bashir Gemayel). Harriri has proposed a way out, by naming Michel Mukattaf, a senior member of the Lebanese Phalange (founded and run by the Gemayel family) as minister but this was vetoed by both President Gemayel, Solang, and Sami Gemayel. Within the Maronite community another family, Suleiman Franjiyeh of Zgharta is lobbying against current MP and minister Nayla Mouawad, insisting that neither she nor her son be given a post in the new cabinet, because of the aggressive pro-Western and anti-Syrian stance they took during 2005-2008.

There are 7 posts with no portfolios, Minister of State in the 30-man Siniora cabinet. Nobody is accepting to become a Minister of State with No Portfolio!!

With such an agenda, and days left counting, it is doubtful if Siniora can announce success by June 7, 2008. The Lebanese—kingmakers and public alike—are keeping their fingers crossed.

Le Monde, here (Thanks "friday-lunch-club")

"….Dans un entretiens aux quotidiens L'Orient le jour, Annahar et Assafir Nicolas Sarkozy affirme qu'"aujourd'hui, une nouvelle page est peut-être en train de s'ouvrir entre la France et la Syrie". "Depuis trop longtemps, la situation de blocage et de crise au Liban empêchait la reprise progressive d'un dialogue" mais avec l'élection du nouveau président libanais, consécutif à l'accord de Doha, "les choses sont peut-être en train de changer. C'est en tout cas ce que je souhaite", poursuit-il.

"J'avais dit (…) que je reprendrais des contacts avec la Syrie seulement lorsque des développements positifs et concrets seraient intervenus au Liban en vue d'une sortie de crise", affirme le président de la République. Selon lui, "il faut bien reconnaître que l'accord de Doha, l'élection du président Sleimane, la reconduction du Fouad Siniora dans ses fonctions de premier ministre constituent de tels développements". "J'en ai tiré les conséquences et j'ai appelé le président Assad pour lui faire part de mon souhait de voir le processus de mise en oeuvre de l'accord se poursuivre", dit-il. "Je lui ai aussi dit que les pourparlers indirects de son pays avec Israël, via la Turquie, allaient également dans le bon sens et je l'ai encouragé sur cette voie", ajoute-t-il. Mais "notre exigence de vérité et de justice en ce qui concerne les assassinats politiques perpétrés au liban est intacte", affirme également M. Sarkozy…"

Ahead of Assad visit, India warms up to Gulf
7 Jun 2008, 0541 hrs IST,Indrani Bagchi,TNN

NEW DELHI: India is looking to reclaim some of its lost space in the Middle East. As part of its renewed engagement with the region, India will play host to the Syrian president Bashar al Assad here later this month — his maiden visit to this country and the first visit by a Syrian president here since 1978.

The visit is also part of the government's enlarged vision of the Middle East where India is working with more and more countries. The driving force of India's interest is clearly energy security as well as a demonstration of its independent foreign policy, particularly to its Left allies back home.

Assad's visit comes at a time when Syria is getting ready to show off its blasted nuclear site to the IAEA, which was blown up by the Israelis last year.

Interestingly, though Syria is in the US's crosshairs, Israel and Syria have begun the process of a dialogue, brokered by Turkey.

Whether India finally asks for a piece of this dialogue or looks for a bigger role in Middle East peace is still a while away. But certainly, India is making tentative moves into this region.

Azmi Bishara claims that "Israel offered Syria to cede the Golan Heights during the Second Lebanon War in exchange for Damascus cutting its ties with Hizbullah," former Knesset Member Azmi Bishara said in an interview with the Nazareth-based 'al-Anwan al-Raisy' newspaper. According to Bishara, Syria will refuse to sever its ties to Iran and Hizbullah – a key Israeli demand.

Obama clarifies united Jerusalem comment
By Hilary Liela Krieger, Jerusalem Post, June 6, 2008

Robert Fisk: The West's weapon of self-delusion
There are gun battles in Beirut – and America thinks things are going fine
Saturday, 7 June 2008

So they are it again, the great and the good of American democracy, grovelling and fawning to the Israeli lobbyists of American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac), repeatedly allying themselves to the cause of another country and one that is continuing to steal Arab land.

 New York Times: Jobs Down for 5th Month; Oil’s Rise Adds to Gloom  Recent hopes that the U.S. might yet skirt a recession sank swiftly in the face of indications that the economy is gripped by a slowdown and pressured by record fuel prices.

Iraq Govt Wants to Restrict Movement of GIs

Washington Post: Editorial Mr. Obama's Middle East After all, he doesn't see the region much differently than President Bush does.

Ha’aretz: U.S.: We will address Iran nuclear threat diplomatically White House makes statement after Kadima minister Mofaz says Israeli strike on Iran seems 'unavoidable.'

Jerusalem Report: The Battle for the Golan Can Syria be lured away from its radical axis?

IHT  A more tranquil season By PATRICK SEALE
Is peace breaking out in the Middle East? Can the journalists and diplomats go home? Unfortunately, no.

Trial of militant group gets under way in Beirut
'Net of 13' accused of plotting terror attacks in Lebanon
By Anthony Elghossain
Daily Star staff
Friday, June 06, 2008

BEIRUT: Lebanese military courts on Thursday began trying members of the "Net of 13," a group initially suspected of involvement in the February 2005 blast that killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, for "plotting to commit terrorist acts on Lebanese soil." The group has been linked by judicial authorities to Al-Qaeda, although members have repeatedly denied any ties with the Islamist network.

The "Net of 13" counts six Lebanese, one Palestinian, one Saudi and five Syrians among its members, in addition to a man who has eluded capture for around one year. The Daily Star was unable to confirm the nationality of this member.

At the trial, which is open to the public, members of the organization retracted earlier confessions to the Hariri assassination and said their admissions of guilt had been extracted by "police brutality and torture."

One member said Hariri's assassination was not carried out by Ahmad Abu Adas, who ostensibly leads the "Victory and Jihad in Greater Syria" Islamist group – an outfit which initially claimed carrying out the Hariri killing and to which Net of 13 members had been accused of having ties – but by "specialized intelligence services." …….

The source also told The Daily Star that these men, operating in blind cells of three or four individuals, "were to be smuggled into Iraq by a contact in Syria known simply as 'Jamil.'"

"When the United States clamped down on border security in Iraq, these men were forced to remain in Syria, where the authorities consistently harassed them," the source added. "This is why they came to Lebanon, although little else is known."

Cleared of involvement in the Hariri case, at least for now, group members have been brought to trial under suspicion of planning terrorist operations in Lebanon. …..

Three and a half years on, the Hariri case is yet to be resolved, but testimonies and investigations relating to the activities of the "Net of 13" may shed some light on a potential regional web of implicated individuals and groups, some of whom remain at large with ties to the group being tried.

U.S. Investigates Suspect's Expulsion to Syria, N.Y. Times Says
By Mark Drajem

June 6 (Bloomberg) — The Justice Department is investigating a decision in 2002 to send a terrorist suspect to Syria, where he was tortured, the New York Times reported, citing U.S. officials.

The Office of Professional Responsibility began an inquiry in March 2007 about the role of Justice Department lawyers in the expulsion of Canadian citizen Maher Arar to Syria, the newspaper reported, citing spokesman Peter A. Carr.

The case of Arar involved “very questionable'' actions by U.S. officials, Richard Skinner, the inspector general of the Department of Homeland Security said at a congressional hearing yesterday. Skinner's office has reopened its four-year inquiry into the case after getting new information, the Times said.

Arar was imprisoned for a year in Syria and beaten with a metal cable before being returned to Canada in 2003, the Times said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Drajem in Washington at [email protected]

I just received this assessment of the Shawkat kerfuffle from a well place Israeli friend. 

Hi Joshua,

What I was told, about two weeks ago, by an high-rank Israeli intelligence source, is that Assad is in full control of the situation in Damascus, and that there is no seeming threat on him. Not only this, but also that he decides what to tell to who on which subject.

Assef Shawkat "doesn’t know everything" about what's going on, he said, but didn't mention any coup attempt. Also, Farouq A-Shara'a is now pushed aside and Walid Muallem is in control over the foreign policy. In the street, he believes, Assad enjoys support because he has proven that he will not "sell" his country interests.

I also want to remind you that Assef Shawkat was seen on Syrian TV a few months ago – April 10th – in a ceremony held by the superior military academy at the end of officers course. Also, Khaddam said a few days earlier, exactly what "Stratfor" mentioned.

Please don't quote me by name on this in case you decide to use it…

alle writes in the Comment section:

– It should be noted that Die Welt has something of a history with Syria. It previously carried what seems to be a manufactured story about Iran/Syria/al-Qa’ida collaboration. It was also Die Welt that published the rather absurd allegations that Syria had been testing chemical weapons in Darfur a couple of years ago. It was also Die Welt that claimed just recently that Syria was building more (!) nuclear sites, and now, the attempted coup. There are different reporters involved in these and other stories about Syria (although a few names appear in more than one: like Jacques Schuster & Clemens Wergins), but they all seem to have in common that the source is someone in a Western intelligence service. Now, either the Mid-East correspondents of Die Welt have some truly spectacular contacts, or — given how much of the above seems to be bullshit — they are being fed by one or more groups using this paper as a info/disinfo outlet, for whatever reason. Sort of like a European al-Siyasa.

– One should also consider the possibility that if the coup story is untrue, spreading rumors about these things can serve to “draw” Syria into a particular action, either to make sure there is no coup, or to publicly prove it, eg. by parading Shawkat on TV (which, A. sets a precedent, and B. may be uncomfortable, given that he’s doing something else/being somewhere else). Or, it could just be a self-sustaining rumor, after the Bushra-in-exile thing, fired up by people like Khaddam and various intelligence agencies that enjoy poking Syria and setting off another Arab media conspiracy theory avalanche.

SYRIA SQUASHES COUP ATTEMPT, GERMAN NEWSPAPER SAYS

2008-06-06 12:28 (New York)

Berlin (dpa) – A coup plot against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was quietly crushed without the world noticing, the German newspaper Die Welt was set to report Saturday, quoting German and “foreign”

intelligence sources.

It said Syria’s military intelligence chief, Assef Shaukat, had plotted to seize power while Assad was hosting an Arab League meeting in Damascus in February. Shaukat, who is an in-law to the president, and 100 intelligence officers had been arrested.

Die Welt said Assad had been tipped off by Imad Mughniyah, a senior member of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah organization in Lebanon.

Mughniyah was killed a few days later in a bomb blast on February 12 in Damascus.

The sources said it was possible that associates of Shaukat had assassinated him in revenge. Releasing the story Friday in advance of going to print, Die Welt said some of the plotters were allegedly linked to violent Islamist groups.

Die Welt said the Syrian embassy in Berlin had rejected the coup story as utterly untrue. Without naming a source, the newspaper said German diplomats were aware of the coup story but had not been able to confirm it as fact. dpa jbp sc

-0- Jun/06/2008 16:28 GMT

Landis Comment:

It is hard to know what to make of these rumors that have been circulating for months. Copied below are two March reports by “Stratfor,” a Texas based private “intelligence” firm, run by Dr. George Friedman. Both are related to the Die Welt claims. The one common thread is that Asef Shawkat is no longer the head of Military Intelligence in Syria.

I have been reluctant to copy these stories in the past because they seem like such speculation, based on unconfirmed reports. For two years we have been hearing stories that the Asad family is at daggers drawn and ready to kill one another. Never were they true in the past. Invariably they were spread by disreputable sources. Die Welt is not disreputable. We have not seen any sign of Asef Shawkat in months. Also, several people I trust tell me that Asef is no longer the head of Military Intelligence – at least that part of the story seems true.

Here are the earlier pieces from Stratfor:

Syria: Lead Mughniyah Investigator Replaced
March 25, 2008 | 1524 GMT

Syrian President Bashar al Assad has named his cousin Rami Makhluf to replace Gen. Asef Shawkat as the chief investigator in the assassination of Hezbollah operative Imad Mughniyah, over the protests of Hezbollah, a Stratfor source in Syria reported March 25. Hezbollah reportedly has accused Shawkat of having a key role in Mughniyah’s assassination and has demanded to interrogate him as a primary suspect. Syrian investigations have already revealed involvement in the assassination by a Syrian army officer who collected detailed intelligence about Mughniyah’s movements in Syria and in the Bekaa Valley, the source said.

New Sratfor Article: Mar 11 2008

Syria:Trouble in Damascus (lots of rumors by the way)

Syria’s ruling al Assad family is experiencing an internal struggle, as the Feb. 12 assassination of top Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyah in Damascus revealed. Syrian allies Iran and Hezbollah seem to have growing suspicions that certain elements of the Syrian regime might have been involved in Mughniyah’s death, and Syrian President Bashar al Assad appears to be building a case against his brother-in-law, the director-general of Syrian intelligence.
Analysis

The Feb. 12 assassination of Hezbollah top commander Imad Mughniyah in Damascus has exposed what appears to be a massive power struggle afflicting Syria’s ruling al Assad family. Since the assassination, Stratfor has received reports from a variety of sources that indicate the death of Hezbollah’s most seasoned operative might not have been a surprise to certain elements of the Syrian regime. These suspicions appear to be shared by Syria’s allies Hezbollah and Iran.

As Stratfor has discussed previously, even if the Israeli Mossad orchestrated the operation to take out Mughniyah, it likely had an inside source — perhaps in Syria’s security apparatus — that facilitated the operation.

And Hezbollah does not appear to be taking any chances. A reliable source revealed to Stratfor that, in the past week, Hezbollah forces apprehended a group of Syrian concierges working in Beirut’s southern suburbs. The concierges were blindfolded, interrogated and released the following morning after they and their families were threatened and told to keep quiet about the incident. Hezbollah was supposedly seeking to find out if the concierges knew any details about Mughniyah’s travel to Damascus the night of Feb. 10 — two days before his assassination. According to the source, Hezbollah is highly suspicious that elements of Syrian intelligence either assisted in or acquiesced to Mughniyah’s liquidation.

The extent of Syrian intelligence’s involvement in the Mughniyah assassination could even reach up to the highest echelons of the al Assad family, with Syrian Director-General of Intelligence Asef Shawkat at the center of the conspiracy. The stability of the Syrian regime rests upon a delicate balance of close-knit clan relations within the al Assad family, the Alawite religious minority and the underlying rule of the Baath party. Any blows to this power structure could spell doom for the government, making it all the more critical for Syrian President Bashar al Assad to adroitly navigate the Byzantine maze of Syrian family politics.

Shawkat became a part of the al Assad clan through a marriage to Bashar’s sister, Bushra al Assad. Though Bushra and Shawkat faced heavy resistance from the al Assad family when the two eloped, they have since amassed a great deal of power and influence in the al Assad regime, making them a force to be reckoned with in any major family dispute. In addition to being a prime suspect in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, Shawkat could have had something to do with the Mughniyah assassination, several signs indicate. Shawkat apparently felt threatened by Mughniyah’s influence within the Syrian security apparatus and came to blows with his long-time foe Maher al Assad, the president’s brother and head of the Republican Guard, over the issue.

There is an unverified rumor circulating that, prior to his assassination, Mughniyah had informed the Syrian president of meetings held between Shawkat and a CIA officer in a European city, where the two supposedly discussed a strategy for Shawkat to seize control of the regime. Al Assad then apparently confronted Bushra about Mughniyah’s allegations, which then prompted Shawkat to organize an operation to take out the Hezbollah commander. Another source claims that Bushra has now moved with her children to Paris and is seeking to relocate to the United Arab Emirates for a long sojourn — a possible indication that the major female power broker of the al Assad clan has lost her bid to spare her husband’s political and intelligence career within the ranks of the Syrian ruling elite.

Though the details of these rumors cannot be verified, there appears to be a case building against Shawkat behind the palace walls in Damascus. Stratfor has already learned of rumors of an impending military reshuffle that could very well remove Shawkat and wash the regime’s hands of the al-Hariri assassination. But Shawkat is unlikely to go quietly into the night, and any attempt to remove him from the Syrian political scene could further complicate the regime’s already intensely bitter power struggle. Similar rifts emerged in the wake of the al-Hariri assassination when former Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam and former Interior Minister Ghazi Kenaan schemed to topple the regime. The Syrian president managed to wade his way through that crisis rather adeptly, but this current power struggle reaches deep into the al Assad clan. And with Israel signaling that it is readying itself for another showdown with Hezbollah, the clock is ticking for al Assad to get his house in order.

An Israel-Syria deal is strategically vital for both
Shlomo Ben-Ami
6 June 2008
Daily Star

Beirut — The resumption of peace talks between Israel and Syria after eight years of saber-rattling is not a diversion from the political troubles of Israel's lame-duck prime minister. Nor are the talks a Syrian ploy to avoid facing a Lebanese-international tribunal on the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri. An Israeli-Syrian peace deal is strategically vital for both sides, and both sides know it.

The two major formative experiences of Syria's Baath regime have been Hafez Assad's loss of the Golan Heights in the 1967 war with Israel, and the loss of Lebanon by his son, Bashar, who was forced to withdraw his army under irresistible American-led international pressure. Recovering the Golan and protecting Syria's vital interests in Lebanon are not only major strategic concerns for Syria's president; they are also crucial to the regime's drive for national legitimacy, and to Assad's assertion of his own leadership.

Peace with Israel is not Assad's priority. Rather, it is the prerequisite without which superior goals – rapprochement with the United States, legitimization of Syria's special status in Lebanon, and avoidance of a potentially devastating war with Israel if the Golan Heights are not recovered by peaceful means – cannot be attained. Indeed, the regime has hinted that it may be willing to compromise on the issue – the delineation of the 1967 border along a tiny piece of land on the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee – that wrecked the negotiations eight years ago.

An Israeli-Syrian peace is a weighty strategic necessity for Israel, too. The complexities of the threats to Israel are such that a possible confrontation with Hamas in Gaza might trigger a flare-up with Hizbullah in Lebanon. Such a war could be won only by the total destruction of Lebanon by Israel's air force. In that case, Syria would likely seize the opportunity to break the deadlock over the Golan Heights through a military move that could develop into a massive war of missiles targeting Israel's vulnerable home front. And Iran, in its drive to protect its nuclear program from an Israeli-American attack, might be very active in supporting this ominous scenario.

Admittedly, the strategic conditions in the region are far more complex today than they were eight years ago, when Israel's requirements for a deal with Syria focused mainly on security arrangements on the Golan Heights, and on Syria using its leverage in Lebanon to permit an Israeli settlement with that country. Syria's alliance with Iran was not a major issue.

Syria's subsequent forced withdrawal from Lebanon was not good news for Israel. In the last round of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks eight years ago, it was clear that a deal with Syria would automatically pave the way to a settlement with Lebanon, and an end to Hizbullah's threat to Israel's northern border. Today, peace with Syria might facilitate an Israeli peace with Lebanon down the road, but that will not be an automatic outcome. Indeed, while Hizbullah prospered under Syrian occupation, it never reached the extraordinary political power that it has today.

Nevertheless, peace with Syria could be a major building block in a wider Israeli-Arab settlement, and consequently of a more stable Middle East, though it is unrealistic to expect that Syria would automatically sever its special relationship with Iran in exchange for the Golan Heights. These are peace talks, not a defense treaty, and Syria would not abruptly disengage from its Iranian friends. But good relations between an Arab state at peace with Israel and Iran are not necessarily a bad thing. Syria's stance might limit, rather than extend, the reach of Iran's strategy of regional destabilization.

As always, much will depend on America's readiness to move away from military solutions and rigid ideological imperatives and instead embrace the pragmatic culture of conflict resolution. A US-backed Israeli-Syrian peace could transform the strategic environment, potentially drawing other Middle East spoilers into a system of regional cooperation and security.

Shlomo Ben-Ami is a former Israeli foreign minister who now serves as the vice president of the Toledo International Center for Peace. He is the author of "Scars of War, Wounds of Peace: The Israeli-Arab Tragedy." THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndica

It's Time to Talk to Syria
By John Kerry and Chuck Hagel
Our policy has isolated us, not Damascus.
June 5, 2008; Page A19

After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991, President George H.W. Bush did the improbable and convinced Syrian President Hafez Assad to join an American-led coalition against a fellow Baathist regime.

Today, these leaders' sons have another chance for a diplomatic breakthrough that could redefine the strategic landscape in the Middle East.

The recent announcement of peace negotiations between Israel and Syria through Turkey, and the agreement between the Lebanese factions in Qatar – both apparently without meaningful U.S. involvement – should serve as a wake-up call that our policy of nonengagement has isolated us more than the Syrians. These developments also help create new opportunities and increased leverage that we can only exploit through substantive dialogue with Syria.

Syria's leaders have always made cold calculations in the name of self-preservation, and history shows that intensive diplomacy can pay off. Secretary of State James Baker made more than a dozen trips to Syria before Operation Desert Storm, and remember President Assad's price: U.S. support for Syrian dialogue with Israel. The ultimate challenge – moving Syria away from its marriage of convenience with Iran – will certainly not happen overnight. But it's telling that Iran lobbied Syria not to negotiate with Israel and that Syria decided to proceed regardless.

To support Israel and isolate Iran, President George W. Bush should offer direct support for the Israeli-Syrian initiative. Promoting peace between our ally and its neighbors has always been a bipartisan cornerstone of our foreign policy. Syria views peace talks with Israel as part of a broader rapprochement with America, and its strong desire for U.S. involvement can work to our advantage. We know that high level, direct talks will require a sustained and credible American role, just as they did in 2000, when President Bill Clinton met repeatedly with Mr. Assad in bringing Syria and Israel to the brink of a deal. With so much at stake, it's in our interests to come to the table again.

The agreement by the Lebanese parties provides another opening. Syria must respect Lebanon's sovereignty and end its deadly meddling. But the fact that Syria's ally, Hezbollah, secured much of the political power it sought should remove Syria's excuse for failing to open an embassy, normalize relations, and finally demarcate the border with Lebanon. Hezbollah must eventually be disarmed, as United Nations Resolutions 1559 and 1701 require, but its agreement not to use force internally could be used to push Syria to shut off the supply of weapons.

Dialogue can open the door for greater cooperation on Iraq. Top Syrian officials have argued that Syria shares America's interest in a stable, secular Iraq and does not want a strongly pro-Iranian regime in Baghdad. Our partnership with Sunni tribes against al Qaeda may have further aligned our interests. As U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker has noted, Islamic extremists also threaten Syria.

While Syria must crack down on the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad claims positive steps have not been rewarded. We should test whether offering tangible benefits brings better results, starting with providing more humanitarian assistance for the nearly 1.5 million Iraqi refugees Syria has absorbed.

The U.N. tribunal investigating the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which may soon issue indictments, is also creating pressure on the regime. If government officials are implicated, Syria could face increased international sanctions. The tribunal's pursuit of justice must never be a bargaining chip, but it adds an incentive to improve relations that we should capitalize on.

Tough economic times in Syria also create leverage. Although domestic oil production accounts for 60%-70% of the country's exports, Syria became a net oil importer in 2007. With a growing population, greater integration into the global economy and an easing of sanctions could be powerful incentives.

Make no mistake: Cooperation with Syria rests not on shared values, but on shared interests. Syria's pursuit of a suspected nuclear program underscores why any agreement must be verified. While many doubt Syria's intentions, we have real leverage and some inducements that have more value to Syria than cost to us. There is no guarantee of an agreement, but the potential payoff is huge, and our current policy is failing.

Israel's government has concluded that, rather than rewarding bad behavior, dialogue with Syria is the best hope for changing it. As Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said, "the chance overrides the risk, and with this hope I am going for a new path." We should do the same before the opportunity slips away.

Mr. Kerry, a Democrat, is a U.S. senator from Massachusetts. Mr. Hagel, a Republican, is a U.S. senator from Nebraska.

a Gallup panel survey conducted May 19-21 says large majorities of Democrats and independents  believe a President should engage in diplomacy with leaders of countries considered enemies of the U.S. Democrats believe that by a 79 percent to 19 percent margin, independents by 70 percent to 29 percent and 48 percent of Republicans support that view…"

Iran fumes as Syria nods to Arab world 
By Sami Moubayed
Asia Times, May 6, 2008

A closer look at Syria's rapprochement with "moderate" Arab states, that are pro-Western, is seen as a stepping stone for dialogue between Damascus and Washington. It comes after Syria announced in late May that it had started indirect talks with Israel, via Turkish mediation. Depending on how one wants to see it, it is also a step away from Tehran. The Iranians are not pleased at the Syrian-Israeli talks, fearing that if they materialize, they will lead to a break between Syria and Iran on one front, and Syria and Hezbollah on another.

The Syrians have repeatedly stressed that they will not abandon their allies if peace is signed with Israel, but in effect, if peace does materialize, it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for the Syrians to continue supporting Hezbollah or Hamas. The Iranians know that well. In the mid-1990s, they were not impressed when Syria went into direct talks with Israel, under the auspices of the Bill Clinton White House. They were equally enraged in April 2007, when Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House, came to Damascus carrying a message from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert or when, one month later, Mouallem met with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Sharm al-Sheikh in Egypt.

They were enraged when Syria went to the Annapolis Middle East peace conference last year in the US, and Syria – despite its friendship with Tehran – made things loud and clear: in as much as we value the alliance, we do not take our orders from Tehran. We are allies, working together in a variety of political and economic issues, but Iran is not Syria's only ally.

The Syrians are making a point loud and clear: we have the Qataris. We have the Turks. And in a few months time, we will have the Americans as well, once the George W Bush team leaves the White House.   (Read the whole article.)

Syrian-American Jews Visit Syria and Meet with Assad

An American delegation that includes many Syrian Jews visited Aleppo and met with Syria’s grand Mufti and with a Syriac Bishop of Aleppo.

They visited many of Aleppo’s ancient synagogues as well as the homes and neighborhoods of their families.

President Assad will meet with them Thursday.

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– 03/06/2008

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France and Britain both warming relations with Damascus: Assad prepares to visit Sarkozy

Les deux émissaires de SARKOZY se rendent à Damas pour préparer son entretien avec le Président ASSAD à Paris
04 juin 2008: La Syrienet

Des sources syriennes bien informées ont signalé hier à Al-Hayat que des contacts sont en cours pour préparer la visite des deux émissaires du Président français M. Claude GUEANT et David LEVIT à Damas, au cours des deux jours qui viennent, afin d’évoquer un certain nombre de question dont l’encouragement de la participation du Président Bachar EL- ASSAD au sommet méditerranéen, prévu le 13 juillet prochain et la préparation d’un entretien officiel entre ASSAD et le président SARKOZY, en marge du sommet….

le Secrétaire général du ministère britannique des Affaires étrangères avait entamé hier une visite à Damas….

Il est possible que SARKOZY fasse une escale à Damas lors de sa visite à Beyrouth, samedi prochain, mais les sources susmentionnées n’ont pas confirmé cette visite, sachant que le Président français retournera à Paris pour rencontrer le Président américain George W BUSH. 

Political Reforms

President Assad says he is not satisfied with political reforms in Syria. He has plans for a senate as well as plans to make it possible for “patriotic opposition” to participate…. opposition members who do not coordinate with outsides.

He explained that the difficult circumstances that Syria had to go through were mainly the reason for delaying political reforms.

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– 03/06/2008

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Repression, the Arab state's foul habit
By Rami G. Khouri
Daily Star staff
Wednesday, June 04, 2008

The Egyptian Parliament's decision last week to extend emergency rule for another two years, including sweeping powers to detain citizens indefinitely, reflects an exaggerated reliance on heavy-handed police methods to govern and keep the peace. Visiting Cairo this week, I became more convinced than ever that this is a counter-productive approach that Arab governments should quickly reconsider before they do irreparable damage to their societies. …

The political institutions that should provide a mechanism for resolving disputes, solving problems and agreeing on consensus policies are slowly degrading in most Arab countries. Parliaments, political parties, elections and most civil society and non-governmental organizations have all suffered from steadily eroding credibility and declining impact.

This is partly due to the phenomenon that is so visible in Egypt, where the state uses security measures to crush any potential opposition, and that includes jailing thousands of its opponents. The Muslim Brotherhood, the largest opposition grouping, claims that 50,000 of its members have been repeatedly arrested, tried, jailed and released since the start of the emergency laws era in 1981.

The continued use of emergency laws for 27 years non-stop suggests that the basic institutions of Arab governance are decaying. …

Egypt is not an isolated case. Many top-heavy, security-focused Arab governance systems end up breeding increasing frustration at the community and household levels, instead of fostering order and stability. …

The lesson for all, however, should be that the gun does not produce security, stability or docility. It only turns once law-abiding citizens into numbed and angry people who feel they have little stake in a system that does not treat them like human beings. …

The Arab world is destroying itself from within by relying more and more on emergency laws, when it needs more rule of law and independent judiciaries.

Rami G. Khouri is published twice-weekly by THE DAILY STAR.

Syria says Israel terms signal not serious on peace: Reuters

President Bashar al-Assad said during a visit to Kuwait that the Israelis were insisting that negotiations restart from scratch and that the progress made in the earlier talks in the 1990s be cancelled.

"This signals that Israel does not desire peace and is not willing to reach it," he said in comments carried by Kuwait's state news agency KUNA.

"We are now testing the water… and this means regaining the occupied Golan… and if we reach a solution on this issue then what remains are other issues that are the second stage of talks."

Assad also dismissed Israeli demands that Syria give up its alliance with Iran as a condition for peace.

Syria says Israel terms signal not serious on peace: Reuters

Syria says Israel terms signal not serious on peace: Reuters

President Bashar al-Assad said during a visit to Kuwait that the Israelis were insisting that negotiations restart from scratch and that the progress made in the earlier talks in the 1990s be cancelled.

"This signals that Israel does not desire peace and is not willing to reach it," he said in comments carried by Kuwait's state news agency KUNA.

"We are now testing the water… and this means regaining the occupied Golan… and if we reach a solution on this issue then what remains are other issues that are the second stage of talks."

Assad also dismissed Israeli demands that Syria give up its alliance with Iran as a condition for peace.

Syria says Israel terms signal not serious on peace: Reuters

President Bashar al-Assad said during a visit to Kuwait that the Israelis were insisting that negotiations restart from scratch and that the progress made in the earlier talks in the 1990s be cancelled.

"This signals that Israel does not desire peace and is not willing to reach it," he said in comments carried by Kuwait's state news agency KUNA.

"We are now testing the water… and this means regaining the occupied Golan… and if we reach a solution on this issue then what remains are other issues that are the second stage of talks."

Assad also dismissed Israeli demands that Syria give up its alliance with Iran as a condition for peace….

"Should we establish relations with Israel and lose our relations with the world?"

"Syria invited the IAEA and will cooperate with it," Assad was quoted by the official SANA news agency as telling journalists during a visit to Kuwait this week.

AIPAC conference 'no arena for debate' on Israel – 04 Jun 08, Youtube by Clayton Swisher

Landis Comment: David Schenker advises Israel to stop its talks with Syria, lest it undermine the Cedar Revolution. He argues that talking to Syria undermines Saad Hariri's March 14 coalition. Somehow, he believes that with US and Israeli support, the March 14 coalition can disarm Hizbullah. Presumably, this will help bring regime change to Syria and eventually spearhead a democratic revolution in the Middle East. This is a lovely notion and one that the Neocons have been pushing for the last decade. But it is not a dream that most Israelis share, and for good reason. Events of the last few years have demonstrated that such reveries produce nightmares.

Israelis must appreciate that only diplomacy can resolve their Hizbullah problem. The other alternatives have failed. Military might failed to destroy Hizbullah in 2006. Gobs of money failed to transform the Lebanese army or the March 14th coalition into instruments for disarming Hizbullah. Diplomacy is the third and remaining way forward. That is what Hizbullah's occupation of West Beirut with the close cooperation of the Lebanese army taught us. It is what Doha is all about. (Somehow Schenker holds to the belief that more money for the Lebanese Army will convince it to turn against Hizbullah. Nothing indicates this. President and Chief of Staff Michel Suleiman has stated many times that he will not use the army against Hizbullah or any Lebanese party for that mater.)

Claiming that Hizbullah wants to conquer Lebanon's other sects or rule over them in some sort of "Hizbullahstan" has no merit. It is simply fear mongering. The vice president of the Higher Shiite Council, Sheikh Abdel- Amir Qabalan, said on Monday that Lebanese Shiites were not in favor of Iran-style "rule of the jurisprudent." "Shiites don't want to change the regime in Lebanon, and we also don't favor a rule of the jurisprudent in Lebanon," Qabalan said. "We hide nothing from the Lebanese, we love Iran, but the rule of the jurisprudent cannot be applied in Lebanon." Nasrallah has reiterated the same thing many times and for many years now. The Grand Sunni Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani has accepted these reassurances in calling for "erasing the painful scars and failures of the past." Even Jumblat's Druze forces are signing peace agreements with Amal, the Shiite party that is its closest neighbor. Assad has unequivocally said that Syria can and will stop arming Hizbullah if Israel returns the Golan. It will help transform the regional security equation as soon as Israel signs a peace to return occupied territory.

Israel is testing this possibility. It should be. It is its only remaining option short of going back to war, which would be lunacy and most likely fail.

The Doha agreement, of which Syria and Hizbullah were architects, should go a long way to reassuring Israelis that Hizbullah is willing to move toward accommodation and eventual decommissioning, as did the IRA, if it is met half way. Lebanon's Shiites will want a larger share of constitutional power in Lebanon. Syria wants the Golan and to ensure that its allies gain a share of authority in Lebanon. The Doha agreement has already fulfilled most of these demands. The result is that Lebanon is once again moving forward and has a much brighter future than it did only weeks ago.

Israel wants peace with its Arab neighbors. This is achievable with hard diplomacy. Israel will not get it through war. It has invaded Lebanon three times and failed to bring peace to its north. Assad is offering peace for land. Far from being repugnant to Israelis and American Jews, this should bring hope.

Israel, Don't Undermine Beirut
By David Schenker
Jerusalem Post
June 2, 2008 

Developments in Lebanon are being viewed with great concern in Israel. In the aftermath of Hizbullah's recent military and ostensible political victories, many Israelis are saying that Beirut has gone the way of Gaza. Lebanon is now "Hizbullahstan" — just like Gaza, only worse.

This assessment is alarmist, defeatist, and premature. ….

Developments in Lebanon are being viewed with great concern in Israel. In the aftermath of Hizbullah's recent military and ostensible political victories, many Israelis are saying that Beirut has gone the way of Gaza. Lebanon is now "Hizbullahstan" — just like Gaza, only worse.

While Washington has sided with the government of Lebanon against Hizbullah, it would be unseemly if not counterproductive for Israel — technically still at war with its neighbor — to publicly pick favorites in local Lebanese politics. Nevertheless, given its pro-Western stance, it's difficult to understand Israel's ambivalence toward the disposition of the Saniora government and the Cedar Revolution vis-a-vis Hizbullah.

Supporters of the Lebanese government have long claimed that Israel is actively protecting the Assad regime in Syria and, in the process, undercutting the Saniora government. The recent announcement of the resumption of Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations in Turkey — coming so closely on the heels of the Syrian-backed Hizbullah military offensive — has been yet another blow to the morale and survivability of the March 14 coalition.

In Beirut, it's widely feared that an Israeli-Syria deal would come at the expense of Lebanon. This view has merit: ….

Although it is a bitter pill for peacemakers in the Jewish state to swallow, by trucking with Syria now, Israel risks inadvertently contributing to the eventual establishment of Hizbullahstan on its northern border.

Ziad Haidar in Damascus writes for the LA Times Site:

SYRIA: Former U.S. diplomat's 'mission improbable' — healing rift

Nobody protested my talk at the American Cultural Center, nobody broke up my meetings, nothing was canceled, and the turnout of people was always more than we expected," said Shearer, who teaches public diplomacy at Occidental in Los Angeles.

In a lengthy interview with the Los Angeles Times, Shearer said he wasn't sure why Syria allowed his visit. Only three years ago, after the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Syria. Damascus stopped permitting American-sponsored cultural activities, boycotted U.S. Embassy receptions and neglected demands for entry visas.

But relations between the two countries appear to warming. The U.S. Embassy in Damascus sponsored a well-attended jazz concert a few weeks ago and gave permission for Shearer's goodwill tour, paid for by the American government.

During his visit he spoke his mind about the Bush administration, to which he's hostile, and the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Among his speaking engagements was the government-sponsored Syrian Public Relations Assn. and the Syrian Young Entrepreneurs Assn., where he told the aspiring businesspeople that their government needs to give them freer Internet access, let their country join the World Trade Organization and increase relations with the outside world.

U.S. Opens Site For Processing Iraqi Refugees
Baghdad Office to Aid Those Seeking to Settle in America
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, June 4, 2008; Page A12

BAGHDAD, June 3 — The U.S. government has opened its first permanent office here for Iraqi refugees seeking to settle in the United States, responding to criticism that the Bush administration has failed to help thousands of Iraqis whose lives are in danger because of their work with American organizations.

The office, which began interviewing applicants May 10, has already finished processing 80 embassy employees for departure, and the first two arrived in the United States this week, according to Ambassador James B. Foley, who is Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's senior coordinator for Iraqi refugees. Foley, in an interview in Washington, said that 1,141 refugees were settled in the United States in May and that he believes the administration will reach its goal of 12,000 for this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30.

The Baghdad refugee processing office, located in the capital's heavily fortified, will make it possible for Iraqis who cannot travel outside the country to apply for resettlement. Iraqis have complained for years that they could not reach offices in Syria, Jordan and Egypt because of cost or visa restrictions.

"The whole goal is to provide greater access to people who are in trouble or in threat based on their association with the U.S.," said an American official in Baghdad, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she was not allowed to speak publicly. ….

Dory Chamoun is the sole surviving son of former Lebanese President Camille Chamoun, who founded the National Liberal Party, one of Lebanon's right-wing Christian groups. As president during Lebanon's first civil war in 1958 Chamoun asked for U.S. intervention, and U.S. Marines were dispatched to quell the unrest.

Claude Salhani: What is your perception of the current situation in the Middle East?

Dory Chamoun: The situation in the Middle East is not going to remain as it is. There is a peace process going on between Syria and Israel, which is on track. How to achieve it remains the question. It is a fact that the Golan Heights is to be divided. Israel wants part of the Golan Heights. This is something the old [former President Hafez] Assad refused.

Now, to achieve that part; they will not be able to achieve it through peace, because Mr. Assad who represents a minority regime cannot say, 'okay, I will give what my father did not give.'

There will be a mock-up war between Syria and Israel. And at the same time Israel will take the advantage to beat up Hezbollah. This time they will fight in the Bekaa Valley. This is a scenario that I see unfolding…..

Cutting off Hamas is just not the answer
By Mohamad Bazzi
June 4, 2008: Chicago Tribune

Nur al-Cubicle writes:

Syria stole the headlines at today’s BBC News site for the 6,014-seat Damascus Gate restaurant ->The scale and decor are reminiscent of a Hollywood epic film set.

Syria may already boast some of the world's best food, but now it can also claim the world's largest restaurant.

The 6,014-seat Damascus Gate has taken the accolade from a Bangkok eatery serving a mere 5,000 diners. During the busy summer months up to 1,800 staff are employed in the 54,000 sq-m dining area and 2,500 sq-m kitchen. The open air area complete with waterfalls, fountains and replicas of archaeological ruins for the summer, and there are separate themed sections for Chinese and Indian cuisine.

Another coup…Bashar Assad has been invited to Paris on 13 July (in time for the Bastille Day celebration, too, I might add) by President Sarkozy to attend a Mediterranean summit.

Solana describes Doha agreement as incomplete
Daily Star, Thursday, June 05, 2008

The EU leader welcomed the election of Lebanese President Michel Sleiman and the appointment of incumbent Premier Fouad Siniora, but added that while the EU supported Siniora in the formation of the Lebanese cabinet, optimism around Siniora's ability to form a government peacefully has "begun to wane."

Thanks to GPC at "friday-lunch-club"

According to this story, the US sent word to Lebanon via Asst. Sec of Defense Adelman that it wants 'veto power' in the appointment of the NEW commander of the LAF ….In AsSafir, here

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Written and Posted by Alex

Yesterday David Schenker wrote an article in the Jerusalem Post in which he called on Israel to reverse Prime minister Ehud Olmert's decision to engage in serious peace talks with Syria:

"Although it is a bitter pill for peacemakers in the Jewish state to swallow, by trucking with Syria now, Israel risks inadvertently contributing to the eventual establishment of Hizbullahstan on its northern border."

Calling on Israel to be alert to his warnings and to stop talking peace with Syria follows another demonstration of Schenker's relentless Syria strategy. On September 21, 2007, he wrote "policy Watch #1290" for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Its title was "losing Traction Against Syria".

Here is one of the main recommendations in that policy watch: 

"To stem Syria's reacceptance into the international community, Washington needs to convince its European and Arab — particularly Gulf — allies to freeze their engagement with Damascus.

And here is what those gulf Arab allies of the Untied States were doing this week … Eight months after David's Sep 2007 "policy Watch"

1) President of the U.A.E. awarded the Syrian President his country's highest medal.  

2) The popular Emir of Dubai was an enthusiastic host 

3) The Emir of Kuwait proudly welcomed the Syrian president

4)  Emir of Qatar visited Bashar in Damascus to thank him for his decisive help in reaching the Doha agreement

5) Kuwait's business leaders promised President Assad dramatically increased Kuwaiti investments in Syria

6) Dubai's business leaders told him how eager they are to invest much more in Syria

Few years ago, Thomas Friedman warned Egypt and Syria that their days are over. According to him, Egypt and Syria were on their way out … to be replaced by the new Arab world leaders, the progressive, ambitious and extravagantly rich Gulf Arabs such as Qatar and Dubai.

Egypt's leadership role seems to have indeed taken a serious hit in recent years. In comparison, Syria, which chose to bet on the smaller Gulf states instead of going Egypt's direction of alliance with (and obedience to) Saudi Arabia, appears to be much more secure about its leading Arab nation role.

Posted by Alex. 

Our own IDAF sent this summary of a question and answer session with President Bashar el-Assad that he, and about thirty other participants invited by the Emir of Dubai, attended this week. The meeting took place at Dubai's School of Government.

Q. How can Arab relations be mended?

I personally see that the points of disagreement between Syria on one side and Egypt and Saudi on the other are few. What you hear in the media is that the reasons for the deteriorating relations are Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq and Iran. Now that the “excuse” for Lebanon is removed from the discussion we look to move closer.  

On Iraq and Iran, we should not blame Iran for our failure as Arabs to provide solutions in Iraq. They are serving there interest from their own perspective on how a solution should be implemented in Iraq. We as Arabs should do the same instead of blaming them.

Q. We heard a lot from officials and media sources about the “constructive role” of Syria in the Doha accord between the Lebanese. Can you give us more details on this role?

We have a strong relationship with Qatar. The solution in Qatar reached a dead end after few days. Then Syria was contacted to suggest ideas for alternative solution. The ideas we provided were the exact same ideas we provided the French last year when they were mediating. However, the French then did not comprehend or did not implement the ideas correctly. The Syrian French differences back then were because the French wanted the Syrians to “replace” some the Lebanese fractions in the discussions and solutions. This is why the French initiative failed. We wanted to help through ideas and solutions but not replace any Lebanese party in the mediation.

In Doha, we provided solutions to the Qataris and the Lebanese. The Qataris then played the crucial role in making our ideas and proposed solutions accepted by the different parties. The Syrian role in Doha was that of a rescuer. During the first 3 days, we did know what was happening in Doha other than information through news sources. When all parties reached a dead end and wanted to pack and go home, Syria was contacted and we were successful in providing a compromise for all parties.

Q. Will you visit and congratulate Gen. Suleiman in Beirut?

There is no reason for not going. However, we prefer to play a positive role without making noise in the media. Currently the case in the Lebanese media is that Syria is blamed for anything that happens in Lebanon. We prefer to play the same role without the fueling negative media coverage. For example, in the nineties when President Hafez Al-Assad visited Lebanon, he drove there by car. The whole coverage in the media then was that he avoided to go by plain to avoid the protocol of saluting the Lebanese flag. This is why in 2002 I decided to go by plain. This was not enough though. Anyhow, you must know that Gen. Sleiman is known for his friendship with Syria.

Q. What is the nature of the Syrian-Israeli indirect negotiation?

Let me explain. In an earlier peace process, James Baker used to fly between Syria and Israel to facilitate negotiations. This time, there’s a Syrian delegate hosted in one Hotel in Turkey and another Israeli delegate hosted in another hotel in the same city. The Turkish mediators are moving from one hotel to the other instead of flying from one country to another until a solution is reached.

In the Madrid process there was nothing in agreement. Now we have something in agreement. Olmert has agreed to return the Golan and this was the basis to start the negotiation. After we reach this infrastructure for peace a direct negotiation will start, we will then need the sponsorship of the USA as a superpower that can ensure the delivery of each party’s commitments.

Q. What is your assessment of the impact of US negative statements on Syria?

Asad: In the early days of such statements people used to base their decisions on them, either politically or even economically. Now, the US administration has lost all credibility and is viewed as illogical.

The US weapons are not that effective on the political terrain. We keep explaining to unofficial US visitors this lack of credibility problem in the region. John F. Kennedy in the sixties sent a delegation to the French president with an envelope including photos of Russian nuclear missiles in Cuba. The French president refused to see the photos and said that the credibility of the US president is enough for him to make a decision accordingly. The current impact of these negative statements is non-existent. On the contrary in 2000 the growth rate in Syria was almost 0 percent. It increased to more than 6 percent today despite these statements.

Q. How can Syria use its good relations with Iran to minimize the potential risk of any Sunni-Shii “Fitna”? What about the talk on Shiitization of Sunnis?

Asad: Our good relationship with Iran has never stopped us from telling them in every venue that we stand firmly with the UAE on the islands issue. Our problem with the current rhetoric on Iran is that no one is able to point to any evidence on the dangers presented by Iran to us Arabs. Why would Iran destroy its strong economic relationships with the Gulf and Dubai for example?

Regarding Shiitaization, we should make a clear distinction between state policies and independent personal or group actions. For example, in Lebanon we had a good strategy and policies in theory but with bad implementation in which individuals and groups caused many errors which we admitted. If these shiitization attempts exist on personal or group levels then we should deal with them as such. We have never seen any evidence on state policies or actions on this regard. This accusation has been used in the media as a tool of inciting for political reasons against Iran. It would be necessary to stop using inflammatory terminology in the Arab media for political exploitation.

Regarding the Sunni-Shii “Fitna”, let’s take Iraq as an example. Few days ago I met with an Iraqi Sunni leader who is known for his extreme anti-Iran stands. He was convinced and showed me compelling evidence on how US players in Iraq are fueling Sunni-Shii strife in the country for political exploitation. In Syria we have 1.5 million Iraqis from all sects, backgrounds and economic status and we did not witness a single sectarian conflict.

Q. Practically, what should be the Arab role in Iraq to help the fractions?

First there should be a pure Iraqi solution with Arab support, as was the case of the solution in Lebanon in Doha. Second, there should be sectarian-free constitution in Iraq. A sectarian quota system of political participation will lead to conflicts as we’ve seen in Lebanon. Sectarian Zua’ama usually live on these institutionalized sectarian divides by continuously inflaming the public to continue to extract political benefits from them. Third, there should be a political process parallel with a scheduled withdrawal of the US troops with an agreed time-line, for example 2 or 3 years. Then there should be an Arab league initiative or mediation that takes place in Baghdad to nurture and pin-down the final details. The later we start implementing this strategy the harder it would be to reach a solution.