{"id":8097,"date":"2011-01-15T19:28:26","date_gmt":"2011-01-16T00:28:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=8097"},"modified":"2011-01-16T05:38:14","modified_gmt":"2011-01-16T10:38:14","slug":"saad-hariri-talking-to-saddiq-a-false-witness-why-tunisia-is-unlikely-in-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/saad-hariri-talking-to-saddiq-a-false-witness-why-tunisia-is-unlikely-in-syria\/","title":{"rendered":"Saad Hariri Talking to Saddiq, a False witness; Why Tunisia Is Unlikely in Syria"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/object><\/p>\n

Al-Jadid TV [New TV] in Lebanon just aired this taped recording of a meeting that took place between Saad al-Hariri, Information Branch chief Colonel Wissam al-Hassan, the Special Tribunal of Lebanon deputy chief investigator Gerhard Lehmann, and Muhammad Zuhair al-Siddiq, one of the false witnesses whose testimony was used by Mehlis to accuse Syria of plotting the murder of Rafiq al-Hariri. It records the four men laying out a plan for how to convince the international community and other Arab leaders of Syria’s culpability. They all believe Syria to be the instigator of the killing. They agree that they must present the world with an air-tight case and lots of proof if it is to act against Syria.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Saddiq explains to Hariri that he tried to warn him of May Shidiyaq’s attempted assassination two days ahead of the bombing that maimed her, but chastizes Hariri for refusing\u00a0to answer his calls; otherwise, the bombing might have been averted, he argues. Hariri asks Saddiq why he didn’t text-message him, as was was his custom in the past.\u00a0Hariri calls Saddiq a “diarrhea mouth” to Mehlis’s lieutenant, but goes on to explain that Saddiq should be believed and is trustworthy even though Hariri and his intelligence chief elsewhere appeare to be quizzing Saddiq on the details of his story. At one point the intelligence chief advises him not to forget any of the details and\u00a0to write\u00a0them down least he get it wrong. Hariri contromands this\u00a0advice to argue that it would be best for Saddiq not to write it down but to memorize it. Evidently, the Gerhard Lehmann does not understand Arabic and isn’t aware that Saddiq is being coached in front of him.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This is damaging to the Tribunal and Hariri because it shows how tainted Mehlis’ reports were and how eager the European investigators were to take at face value trumped up evidence. For Hariri, it is damaging because he swore that he had not met with Saddiq or any of the false witnesses. It also demonstrates that the Lebanese journalists who defended Mehlis’ reports and credibility and tried to impune the reputation of Brahmertz and the later investigators who were rightly forced to discard\u00a0 evidence against Syria that was provided by the false witnesses and his false witnesses were being irresponsible. Mehlis, until very recetnly, has repeted his original claim that the witnesses that are now discredited should be believed and provided credible accounts.\u00a0 See Qifa Nabki<\/a> for an argument\u00a0why this isn’t really damaging for Hariri. See Gary Gambill <\/a>for a great review of the Mehlis evidence and the false witnesses.<\/p>\n

The dramatic news of a popular uprising in\u00a0Tunisia <\/strong>has stirred up excitement and anxiety in Syria. See the last part of the comment section of the last post, where\u00a0Syrians debate whether it could happen in Syria. This is what I wrote to one journalist:<\/p>\n

There are many reasons that Syria is not like Tunisia.<\/p>\n

1. Most important to revolution and regime collapse is division within the elite. If the elite splits and begins fighting among itself, the state can collapse. We saw this in Russia, where the most important part of the elite got tired of communism and wanted perestroika.<\/p>\n

In Iran, the elite was divided but disagreements were limited and opposition leaders wanted an Islamic Republic and were not willing to take down the state or get killed to force change. The military was willing to shoot at the people.<\/p>\n

In Tunisia Ben Ali fled. He was unwilling to order a bloody crackdown. This is key. Perhaps the military was unwilling to take his orders? The elite abandoned the ruler.<\/p>\n

2. Tunisia is a religiously homogeneous country unlike Syria. In Syria, because the military elite is dominated by the Alawite minority, it is unlikely to split. Members of the Syrian elite will look at what happened to the Sunnis of Iraq or the Christians of Iraq and close ranks. The sad history of sectarian violence in the Mashriq, or Eastern Arab World, acts to enforce elite solidarity. Members of Syria’s Sunni elite are also unlikely to abandon the Assad regime. They are chastened by the sectarian fighting that followed regime collapse in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine. The wealthy Sunni elite does not want civil war. The fear of civil war based on religious affiliation is the greatest legitimizer or bulwark of authoritarianism in Syria.<\/p>\n

These are the top two reasons.<\/p>\n

Syria is unlikely to follow along the path of Tunisia toward popular revolution. The Syrian intelligence and military forces will shoot and stand by the president. The people have been chastened by watching the years of sectarian agony that the people of Lebanon and Iraq have suffered due to state collapse.<\/p>\n

This said, if Tunisia can right itself politically and avoid prolonged chaos and repressive military rule, it will undoubtedly become a great exemplar and point of hope for all Arabs. Nothing undermines hope more than failure. So far, the Arab world has failed to produce a model of democratic success. If Tunisia turns into a successful model of Democracy, it will embolden the forces of change and opposition parties throughout the Middle East.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In this Photo the banner reads<\/strong>: “He who is traduces Shaykh Saad [Hariri], traduces Lebanon.” It is by an Islamic organizational of Tripoly.\"\"<\/p>\n

“Druze leader Walid Jumblatt held talks in Syria Saturday with President Bashar al-Assad … The two men stressed the ‘importance of staying aware of the risks foreign interventions carry in the region’…Jumblatt, once a main Hariri ally, has changed his stance… Sources close to the Druze leader said he was trying to find a solution to the current crisis that would satisfy both camps, but stressed the difficulty of that task. Jumblatt met with Hezbollah leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah on Thursday and held talks with Hariri on Friday…..”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“[Tunisia] was so sterile <\/a>— you just feel people’s fear, and the complete lack of dynamism in the society,” said Carpenter. “Within the State Department we used to refer to it as \u2018Syria with a smile.'” Scott Carpenter, a former deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bush administration.<\/p>\n

???? ???? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ???? ?????? <\/a>????? ???? ??????? ??? ???? ???????? ?? ?????????? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ???? ?????? ????? ??? ???? ??? ??? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ????<\/p>\n

?????<\/p>\n

UN tribunal to link Iran’s Supreme Leader with Hariri assassination<\/a>
\n2011-01-15 08
\nHaaretz: Report:<\/p>\n

A United Nations tribunal is to indict Iran’s spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with ordering the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, U.S. news website Newsmax reported on Saturday, adding that the hit itself was …<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Lebanon’s Jumblatt in Syria for crisis talks<\/a>(AFP)<\/p>\n

DAMASCUS \u2014 Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt was in Damascus on Saturday for talks with President Bashar al-Assad on the political crisis sparked by the collapse of Saad Hariri’s government in Lebanon, state news agency SANA reported.<\/p>\n

I imagine the first order of business for Amb Ford will be simply to open channels of communication to the Syrian Foreign Ministry. Fro the last five years, the embassy has been isolated in Damascus. The Syrian government has prevented people of consequence and high government officials from communicating with the Chargee. Syria has not allowed it to carry on business as usual without an Ambassador in residence. This means that the Chargee d’affairs has not been able to meet regularly with the foreign minister or deputy foreign minister.<\/p>\n

Embassy receptions are sad affairs to which most Syrians have been warned not to attend.<\/p>\n

The Ambassador will have to dismantle this isolation and rebuild crucial relations between his staff and their Syrian counterparts.<\/p>\n

Second will be intelligence sharing. Intelligence sharing is the most promising overlap in US – Syrian relations. Both government are against al-Qaida and takfiri Islamists. Both governments want to stabilize Iraq.<\/p>\n

Lebanon has been a consistent point of friction between the two governments. The challenge for Ford will be to keep the differences over Lebanon and the Arab-Israeli conflict from shutting down cooperation on other crucial interests that the US and Syria share.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

By Zvi Bar\u2019el, Haaretz,\u00a0\u00a013.01.11<\/p>\n

Hezbollah\u2019s collective resignation yesterday was intended to show Syria the limitations of its influence on the group and to tell Damascus that if it wanted to show Washington it can preserve stability in Lebanon, Hezbollah and Iran will have the last word.<\/p>\n

In itself, the resignation does not insure that the indictment \u2013 which likely implicates senior Hezbollah officials \u2013 would not be released. But it prevents the Lebanese cabinet from functioning or making any cardinal decisions, as these require a majority of two-thirds of the 30 ministers.<\/p>\n

Nasrallah, who is not pleased with the strengthening ties between Syria and Hariri and fears they will gnaw at his power, now wants to reshuffle the cabinet, have a new prime minister appointed and split up the coalition. This will increase Hezbollah\u2019s strength and could thwart Syria\u2019s ability to form a political bloc that would counterbalance the group.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

France calls for ‘contact group’ on Lebanon
\niloubnan.info<\/p>\n

Clinton Rips Arabs on Lack of Reform<\/a><\/p>\n

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, adopting a tone reminiscent of the Bush administration, blasted Arab governments for stalled political change, warning that extremists were exploiting a lack of democracy to promote radical agendas across the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Mrs. Clinton, addressing a conference on democracy\u00a0as she wrapped up a four-nation tour of the Persian Gulf region Thursday, said the situation is exacerbated by dwindling natural resources and the difficulty of the region’s large population of young people in finding jobs or channels through which to express their aspirations.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Lebanon’s government crisis and the regional tides<\/a>
\nby Helena Cobban<\/p>\n

January 12, 2011″… Let’s look at the position of the pro-U.S. forces in the Middle East today:
\n* Tunisia is in the throes of a serious socio-economic upheaval that threatens to spread to many other M.E. countries that, like it, are important to US power projection in the region.
\n* Think Egypt, in particular.
\n* The Israeli government continues not only to keep Gaza’s 1.5 million people locked in an impermeable and quite inhumane cage but also to viciously knock the guts out of Palestinian East Jerusalem and thus out of any hope that a viable “two-state” solution can be salvaged from the current mess of repression in Palestine… And Washington is doing nothing– nothing!– about any of that. Even its long-lasting fig-leaf of pretense that there is something called a peace “process” has now been shredded to nothingness. For far too long, there has been no progress towards any form of a just and sustainable peace. Now, there is not even the pretense of any “process.”
\n* The U.S. has now definitively lost the campaign to have any lasting influence over the government in Baghdad; and it is in serious trouble further east in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
\n*Egypt is not the only country, central to U.S. interests in the region, where an aged long-time ruler is now well into his 9th decade on earth and starting to falter, physically. Think Saudi Arabia.
\nSaudi Arabia is particularly germane to the situation in Lebanon, since it was the Saudi-Syrian entente of early 2008 that allowed Lebanon to recover from the prolonged political crisis that preceded that date.
\nInteresting that the resigning opposition MP’s in Lebanon made a point of saying that the pro-Hariri bloc ad foiled the wishes of both the Syrians and the Saudis, and that the Hizbullah media reported it that way too.
\nWhere is Saudi King Abdullah? He has had several serious medical procedures recently. Who has (?former) PM Saad Hariri been listening to as he has made his decisions of recent weeks?
\n… If Nasrallah and his friends in Tehran (especially Supreme Leader Khamenei) indeed think the time has come to give the western house of cards in the Middle East a little nudge in Beirut to see what happens, the fallout from this could well end up extending far beyond Lebanon’s tiny confines.
\nWell, I have been planning a short visit to Beirut next month, anyway. It should be an interesting time to be there….”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Politico on the Peace Process<\/a> Thanks to our friend at FLC<\/p>\n

With U.S. Middle East peace efforts at an impasse, the Obama administration has sought new ideas from outside experts on how to advance the peace process. One task force has been convened by Sandy Berger and Stephen Hadley, former national security advisers to Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush, respectively, to offer recommendations on the Middle East peace process to the National Security Council. A second effort, led by Martin Indyk, vice president of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, held meetings this week with senior NSC Middle East\/Iran adviser Dennis Ross, Palestinian negotiator Maen Erekat and Israel\u2019s ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren, among others.<\/p>\n

The solicitation of ideas comes as the administration\u2019s peace efforts are \u201cutterly stuck,\u201d as one outside adviser who consults the administration on the issue told POLITICO Wednesday on condition of anonymity. \u201cThere\u2019s no pretense of progress. With the State of the Union coming up and the new GOP Congress, they are taking a few weeks [to regroup and solicit] ideas to push forward and \u2026 to give a real jump-start to what would be meaningful negotiations,\u201d the adviser said. Ross traveled quietly to Israel last week to seek more clarity from Israeli leaders on their security requirements and ideas for advancing the peace process….\u201cThere are three options that this administration can adopt,\u201d former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer told POLITICO Thursday. \u201cIt can elicit an Israeli initiative. It can elicit a Palestinian initiative. Or it can develop its own initiative.\u201d \u201cIt\u2019s had no success with the first two, and it hasn\u2019t tried the third,\u201d Kurtzer said. \u201cSo if it wants to try to develop an initiative, it\u2019s got to come up with a substantive program that says to the parties, \u2018When you get to negotiations, here are your terms of reference.\u2019 \u2026 And they have to be relatively narrow terms of reference, so we don\u2019t start from where we were 15 years ago.\u201d Though the Israeli government has resisted suggestions that the U.S. administration present \u201can American plan,\u201d Kurtzer argued that the U.S. experience to date has proved \u201cthere is no other option.\u201d Without a process that will achieve Palestinian statehood, Fayyad and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas \u201care vulnerable to being seen as policemen of the Israeli occupation,\u201d he said. Support for Palestinian institution building, he said, \u201cis like apple pie and motherhood \u2014 everybody is all for it. It can\u2019t be the only thing out there.\u201d ……..<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s no such thing as a vacuum in the Middle East. You\u2019re either moving forward or retreating,\u201d Kurtzer said. \u201cAnd when you have the Middle East in bad shape anyway \u2014 the Lebanon stuff is an indication it is getting worse \u2014 once there\u2019s an admitted vacuum in the peace process, the Middle East gets worse. And the bad guys will take advantage.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A reporter’s question:<\/strong><\/p>\n

So any thoughts on the ambassador to Syria landing tomorrow? What’s his first order of business, you think? With everything going on in Lebanon, you think the US is regretting this?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

My answer:<\/strong><\/p>\n

I imagine the first order of business for Amb Ford will be simply to open channels of communication to the Syrian Foreign Ministry. Fro the last five years, the embassy has been isolated in Damascus. The Syrian government has prevented people of consequence and high government officials from communicating with the Chargee. Syria has not allowed it to carry on business as usual without an Ambassador in residence. This means that the Chargee d’affairs has not been able to meet regularly with the foreign minister or deputy foreign minister.<\/p>\n

Embassy receptions are sad affairs to which most Syrians have been warned not to attend.<\/p>\n

The Ambassador will have to dismantle this isolation and rebuild crucial relations between his staff and their Syrian counterparts.<\/p>\n

Second will be intelligence sharing. Intelligence sharing is the most promising overlap in US – Syrian relations. Both government are against al-Qaida and takfiri Islamists. Both governments want to stabilize Iraq.<\/p>\n

Lebanon has been a consistent point of friction between the two governments. The challenge for Ford will be to keep the differences over Lebanon and the Arab-Israeli conflict from shutting down cooperation on other crucial interests that the US and Syria share.<\/p>\n

I do not think the Obama administration is regretting Ford’s appointment. On the contrary, the US needs a representative in Damascus now more than ever.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Al-Jadid TV [New TV] in Lebanon just aired this taped recording of a meeting that took place between Saad al-Hariri, Information Branch chief Colonel Wissam al-Hassan, the Special Tribunal of Lebanon deputy chief investigator Gerhard Lehmann, and Muhammad Zuhair al-Siddiq, one of the false witnesses whose testimony was used by Mehlis to accuse Syria of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[16,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hariri","category-lebanon"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nSaad Hariri Talking to Saddiq, a False witness; 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