{"id":737,"date":"2008-06-04T23:48:43","date_gmt":"2008-06-04T23:48:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=737"},"modified":"2008-06-05T00:46:38","modified_gmt":"2008-06-05T00:46:38","slug":"israel-dont-undermine-beirut-by-joshua-landis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/israel-dont-undermine-beirut-by-joshua-landis\/","title":{"rendered":"“Israel, Don’t Undermine Beirut,” by Joshua Landis with Help from David Schenker"},"content":{"rendered":"

Landis Comment<\/strong>: David Schenker advises Israel to stop its talks with Syria, lest it undermine the Cedar Revolution. He argues that talking to Syria undermines Saad Hariri's March 14 coalition. Somehow, he believes that with US and Israeli support, the March 14 coalition can disarm Hizbullah. Presumably, this will help bring regime change to Syria and eventually spearhead a democratic revolution in the Middle East. This is a lovely notion and one that the Neocons have been pushing for the last decade. But it is not a dream that most Israelis share, and for good reason. Events of the last few years have demonstrated that such reveries produce nightmares.<\/p>\n

Israelis must appreciate that only diplomacy can resolve their Hizbullah problem. The other alternatives have failed. Military might failed to destroy Hizbullah in 2006. Gobs of money failed to transform the Lebanese army or the March 14th coalition into instruments for disarming Hizbullah. Diplomacy is the third and remaining way forward. That is what Hizbullah's occupation of West Beirut with the close cooperation of the Lebanese army taught us. It is what Doha is all about. (Somehow Schenker holds to the belief that more money for the Lebanese Army will convince it to turn against Hizbullah. Nothing indicates this. President and Chief of Staff Michel Suleiman has stated many times that he will not use the army against Hizbullah or any Lebanese party for that mater.)<\/p>\n

Claiming that Hizbullah wants to conquer Lebanon's other sects or rule over them in some sort of "Hizbullahstan" has no merit. It is simply fear mongering. The vice president of the Higher Shiite Council, Sheikh Abdel- Amir Qabalan, said on Monday that Lebanese Shiites were not in favor of Iran-style "rule of the jurisprudent." "Shiites don't want to change the regime in Lebanon, and we also don't favor a rule of the jurisprudent in Lebanon," Qabalan said. "We hide nothing from the Lebanese, we love Iran<\/font><\/a>, but the rule of the jurisprudent cannot be applied in Lebanon." Nasrallah has reiterated the same thing many times and for many years now. The Grand Sunni Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani has accepted these reassurances in calling for "erasing the painful scars and failures of the past." Even Jumblat's Druze forces are signing peace agreements with Amal, the Shiite party that is its closest neighbor. Assad has unequivocally said that Syria can and will stop arming Hizbullah if Israel returns the Golan. It will help transform the regional security equation as soon as Israel signs a peace to return occupied territory. <\/p>\n

Israel is testing this possibility. It should be. It is its only remaining option short of going back to war, which would be lunacy and most likely fail.<\/p>\n

The Doha agreement, of which Syria and Hizbullah were architects, should go a long way to reassuring Israelis that Hizbullah is willing to move toward accommodation and eventual decommissioning, as did the IRA, if it is met half way. Lebanon's Shiites will want a larger share of constitutional power in Lebanon. Syria wants the Golan and to ensure that its allies gain a share of authority in Lebanon. The Doha agreement has already fulfilled most of these demands. The result is that Lebanon is once again moving forward and has a much brighter future than it did only weeks ago.<\/p>\n

Israel wants peace with its Arab neighbors. This is achievable with hard diplomacy. Israel will not get it through war. It has invaded Lebanon three times and failed to bring peace to its north. Assad is offering peace for land. Far from being repugnant to Israelis and American Jews, this should bring hope.<\/p>\n

Israel, Don't Undermine Beirut<\/a>
By David Schenker
Jerusalem Post
June 2, 2008 <\/p>\n

\n

Developments in Lebanon are being viewed with great concern in Israel. In the aftermath of Hizbullah's recent military and ostensible political victories, many Israelis are saying that Beirut has gone the way of Gaza. Lebanon is now "Hizbullahstan" — just like Gaza, only worse.<\/p>\n

This assessment is alarmist, defeatist, and premature. ….<\/p>\n

Developments in Lebanon are being viewed with great concern in Israel. In the aftermath of Hizbullah's recent military and ostensible political victories, many Israelis are saying that Beirut has gone the way of Gaza. Lebanon is now "Hizbullahstan" — just like Gaza, only worse.<\/p>\n

While Washington has sided with the government of Lebanon against Hizbullah, it would be unseemly if not counterproductive for Israel — technically still at war with its neighbor — to publicly pick favorites in local Lebanese politics. Nevertheless, given its pro-Western stance, it's difficult to understand Israel's ambivalence toward the disposition of the Saniora government and the Cedar Revolution vis-a-vis Hizbullah.<\/p>\n

Supporters of the Lebanese government have long claimed that Israel is actively protecting the Assad regime in Syria and, in the process, undercutting the Saniora government. The recent announcement of the resumption of Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations in Turkey — coming so closely on the heels of the Syrian-backed Hizbullah military offensive — has been yet another blow to the morale and survivability of the March 14 coalition.<\/p>\n

In Beirut, it's widely feared that an Israeli-Syria deal would come at the expense of Lebanon. This view has merit: ….<\/p>\n

Although it is a bitter pill for peacemakers in the Jewish state to swallow, by trucking with Syria now, Israel risks inadvertently contributing to the eventual establishment of Hizbullahstan on its northern border.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Ziad Haidar<\/a> in Damascus writes for the LA Times Site:<\/p>\n

SYRIA: Former U.S. diplomat's 'mission improbable' — healing rift<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Nobody protested my talk at the American Cultural Center, nobody broke up my meetings, nothing was canceled, and the turnout of people was always more than we expected," said Shearer, who teaches public diplomacy at Occidental in Los Angeles.<\/p>\n

In a lengthy interview with the Los Angeles Times, Shearer said he wasn't sure why Syria allowed his visit. Only three years ago, after the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Syria. Damascus stopped permitting American-sponsored cultural activities, boycotted U.S. Embassy receptions and neglected demands for entry visas. <\/p>\n

But relations between the two countries appear to warming. The U.S. Embassy in Damascus sponsored a well-attended jazz concert a few weeks ago and gave permission for Shearer's goodwill tour, paid for by the American government. <\/p>\n

During his visit he spoke his mind about the Bush administration, to which he's hostile, and the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad. <\/p>\n

Among his speaking engagements was the government-sponsored Syrian Public Relations Assn. and the Syrian Young Entrepreneurs Assn., where he told the aspiring businesspeople that their government needs to give them freer Internet access, let their country join the World Trade Organization and increase relations with the outside world.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

U.S. Opens Site For Processing Iraqi Refugees<\/a>
Baghdad Office to Aid Those Seeking to Settle in America
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, June 4, 2008; Page A12 <\/p>\n

\n

BAGHDAD, June 3 — The U.S. government has opened its first permanent office here for Iraqi refugees seeking to settle in the United States, responding to criticism that the Bush administration has failed to help thousands of Iraqis whose lives are in danger because of their work with American organizations. <\/p>\n

The office, which began interviewing applicants May 10, has already finished processing 80 embassy employees for departure, and the first two arrived in the United States this week, according to Ambassador James B. Foley, who is Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's senior coordinator for Iraqi refugees. Foley, in an interview in Washington, said that 1,141 refugees were settled in the United States in May and that he believes the administration will reach its goal of 12,000 for this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. <\/p>\n

The Baghdad refugee processing office, located in the capital's heavily fortified, will make it possible for Iraqis who cannot travel outside the country to apply for resettlement. Iraqis have complained for years that they could not reach offices in Syria, Jordan and Egypt because of cost or visa restrictions. <\/p>\n

"The whole goal is to provide greater access to people who are in trouble or in threat based on their association with the U.S.," said an American official in Baghdad, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she was not allowed to speak publicly. ….<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Chamoun: Syria-Israel war is imminent<\/a><\/div>\n
By CLAUDE SALHANI <\/div>\n
\n
Dory Chamoun is the sole surviving son of former Lebanese President Camille Chamoun, who founded the National Liberal Party, one of Lebanon's right-wing Christian groups. As president during Lebanon's first civil war in 1958 Chamoun asked for U.S. intervention, and U.S. Marines were dispatched to quell the unrest. <\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n

Claude Salhani: What is your perception of the current situation in the Middle East? <\/p>\n

Dory Chamoun: The situation in the Middle East is not going to remain as it is. There is a peace process going on between Syria and Israel, which is on track. How to achieve it remains the question. It is a fact that the Golan Heights is to be divided. Israel wants part of the Golan Heights. This is something the old [former President Hafez] Assad refused. <\/p>\n

Now, to achieve that part; they will not be able to achieve it through peace, because Mr. Assad who represents a minority regime cannot say, 'okay, I will give what my father did not give.' <\/p>\n

There will be a mock-up war between Syria and Israel. And at the same time Israel will take the advantage to beat up Hezbollah. This time they will fight in the Bekaa Valley. This is a scenario that I see unfolding…..<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Cutting off Hamas is just not the answer<\/a>
By Mohamad Bazzi
June 4, 2008: Chicago Tribune<\/p>\n

Nur al-Cubicle writes:<\/p>\n

\n

Syria stole the headlines at today’s BBC News site for the 6,014-seat Damascus Gate restaurant<\/a> ->The scale and decor are reminiscent of a Hollywood epic film set. <\/em><\/p>\n

Syria may already boast some of the world's best food, but now it can also claim the world's largest restaurant. <\/p>\n

The 6,014-seat Damascus Gate has taken the accolade from a Bangkok eatery serving a mere 5,000 diners. During the busy summer months up to 1,800 staff are employed in the 54,000 sq-m dining area and 2,500 sq-m kitchen. The open air area complete with waterfalls, fountains and replicas of archaeological ruins for the summer, and there are separate themed sections for Chinese and Indian cuisine. <\/p>\n

Another coup…Bashar Assad has been invited to Paris on 13 July (in time for the Bastille Day celebration, too, I might add) by President Sarkozy to attend a Mediterranean summit. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Solana describes Doha agreement as incomplete<\/a>
Daily Star, Thursday, June 05, 2008<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

The EU leader welcomed the election of Lebanese President Michel Sleiman and the appointment of incumbent Premier Fouad Siniora, but added that while the EU supported Siniora in the formation of the Lebanese cabinet, optimism around Siniora's ability to form a government peacefully has "begun to wane."<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Thanks to GPC at "friday-lunch-club"<\/a> <\/p>\n

\n

According to this story, the US sent word to Lebanon via Asst. Sec of Defense Adelman that it wants 'veto power' in the appointment of the NEW commander of the LAF ….In AsSa<\/strong>fir, here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

???? ??? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?? ?????? ???????? ??????? ????????? ?????????? ????????? ????? ??????? ????? ?? ??? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??????????? ??? ???? ??????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ?????? ???????? ???? ?????? ????? ??? ???? ??????? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ???????? ????? ???????? ??? ???? ????? ???? ????? ????? ????? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ??? ???? ??????? ?????? ?? ?? ??? ???? ????? ???????? ???????<\/span> ??? ?? ??? ?? ??????? «??????»? ???? ???? ??????? ???????? ??????? ???? ????? ???? ????? ????? ????? ???????? ??????? ???????<\/strong>–<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Landis Comment: David Schenker advises Israel to stop its talks with Syria, lest it undermine the Cedar Revolution. He argues that talking to Syria undermines Saad Hariri's March 14 coalition. Somehow, he believes that with US and Israeli support, the March 14 coalition can disarm Hizbullah. Presumably, this will help bring regime change to Syria and eventually spearhead […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[16,20,15,27,22,28,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hariri","category-hizbullah","category-israel","category-landis-news","category-lebanon","category-neocons","category-us"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\n"Israel, Don't Undermine Beirut," by Joshua Landis with Help from David Schenker - Syria Comment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/israel-dont-undermine-beirut-by-joshua-landis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\""Israel, Don't Undermine Beirut," by Joshua Landis with Help from David Schenker - Syria Comment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Landis Comment: David Schenker advises Israel to stop its talks with Syria, lest it undermine the Cedar Revolution. He argues that talking to Syria undermines Saad Hariri's March 14 coalition. 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