![\"\"](\"http:\/\/depetris.files.wordpress.com\/2009\/07\/060714-hezbollah_big.jpg\")
A reporter asked me two questions about the possibility of war between Israel and its enemies. They were:<\/p>\nA reporter asked me two questions about the possibility of war between Israel and its enemies. They were:<\/p>\n
1. Does war between Hizbullah and Israel seem increasingly likely?
\n2. On what factors does keeping the calm depend?<\/p><\/blockquote>\nHere is my answer:<\/strong><\/p>\n
1. War grows ever more likely the longer President Obama fails to organize his effort at Arab-Israeli peace and put some muscle behind it.<\/p>\n
2. There are two sides to the conflict. One side is made up of Israel, which hopes to expand its borders into Arab land it captured in the 1967 war. It is backed by Egypt and Jordan, countries which have made peace with Israel and to which Israel has returned the land it conquered.<\/p>\n
The other side is made up of Syria, Lebanon and the Palestine, all of which have lost land to Israeli conquest and annexation. Iran is backing the Syrian side. They have stated that they will resist this annexation and fight to get their land back. This makes war inevitable.<\/p>\n
There are two ways to resolve this dispute. One is to make peace and find a compromise over land. This is the long-term solution.<\/p>\n
The second is for Israel to continue preemptive bombings and incursions to weaken its enemies. This is the short term fix, but it can continue for an indefinite period so long as the US is willing to back Israel and help prevent its enemies from improving their weapons systems or acquiring nuclear capacity.<\/p>\n
The down side is that these wars radicalize the region and draw America ever further into a costly and never ending “Global War on Terror.”<\/p>\n
The war option has prevailed over the last decade, ever since the Oslo process died in 2000. The 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the 2007 bombing of Syria\u2019s purported nuclear plant, and the 2009 bombing of Gaza are the most obvious cases in point.<\/p>\n
Resistance and preemptive wars are likely to continue as the chosen policy unless a sincere peace process is jump started soon.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, as US elections loom on the horizon, the prospect that the Obama administration will want to get into a test of wills with its close ally, Israel, diminishes. This makes war look ever more likely. In the short term, neither side wants war. It would be too costly. They will raise the rhetorical heat and go through the motions of a stare down in preparation for a game of chicken… But what happens if no one holds them back after all the growling, teeth gnashing and head feints?<\/p>\n
[End]<\/strong><\/p>\n
News Round Up<\/strong><\/p>\n
Scud fiasco opens door for Israeli aggression<\/a>
\n\u2018With or without the missiles, there is a crisis now \u2026 of broad proportions,\u2019 says Analyst
\nBy Michael Bluhm
\nDaily Star, April 29, 2010<\/p>\n….Whatever the truth about the Scuds, Israel has been building the case for another assault on Hizbullah and Lebanon since shortly after UN Security Council Resolution 1701 ended the 34-day war in 2006, said Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Middle East Center. Israel then widened its argument for another war based on the \u201cnew alignment\u201d in Lebanon after May 2008, when the Doha accord ended days of civil strife by creating a government including Hizbullah representatives, Salem added. With Hizbullah part of the state structure, Israel would be free to destroy any part of the Lebanese state in any future combat, Salem said.<\/p>\n
Israel will not begin any armed strike on Lebanon in the short term, however, because of the region\u2019s more pressing and significant problems, the analysts said. For example, the US is hammering out details with Russia and China on a new round of UN sanctions against Iran over the Islamic Republic\u2019s disputed nuclear program, and Israel will have to wait out US diplomatic efforts to defuse the Iranian crisis before commencing a new war in the Middle East, Salem said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe main issue remains Iran,\u201d he said. \u201cI don\u2019t think there will be a war in the next six months.\u201d The Scud crisis \u201cis saber-rattling, but it increases the risk of war, certainly,\u201d he added. \u201cTensions are higher, certainly. Israel has more justification,\u201d he added…..<\/p>\n
Retired General Elias Hanna said, “In any case, the Scud crisis reaffirms that Lebanon sits firmly in the Iran and Syria-led camp opposing Israel and so would absorb the consequences should that enmity explode into war. It means that Lebanon is really f****d,\u201d he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Qatar blasts Israel on Scud claims<\/a>
\nThu, 29 Apr 2010<\/p>\nQatar’s Prime minister has charged Israel with posing new threats against Lebanon and Syria by accusing Damascus of supplying Scud missiles to Hezbollah. …. “Launching threats against Lebanon or Syria is unacceptable and we’ll do whatever we can to foil Israeli foolishness,” said Sheikh Hamad at a press conference quoted by Lebanese daily Naharnet. “Israeli threats are not strange and it’s very important for Israel to realize the failure of its previous military adventures and hopefully they have grasped the lessons,” he added.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Gates: “No One in this Department Believes that the Lack of Progress in the Peace Process is Costing American Lives”<\/a>
\nLaura Rosen via FLC<\/p>\n“… \u201cDon\u2019t forget that the office of the Secretary of Defense [sees its role as to] ride herd on the uniformed personnel,\u201d the Washington Institute for Near East Policy\u2019s Patrick Clawson said. Part of their job “is to keep the uniformed military [from] speak[ing] out on policy issues.\u201d
\nThe suggestion is that Gates\u2019s showing of high honor to the Israeli defense chief may have been a message to those specifically in the office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Central Command to, in essence, clam it. ……<\/p><\/blockquote>\n…… At a joint Gates-Barak media appearance at the Pentatgon Tuesday, Israeli Channel 10\u2019s Gil Tamari asked … \u201cSecretary Gates and Minister Barak, \u2026. if you can just explain us, why do you host this press availability now?” Tamari asked. “Is it because this administration would like to portray a feeling of business as usual with the Israeli government when the general perception, as you well know, is that business is not so usual between Israel and the United States right now?<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd \u2026 is the real perception of the Pentagon — that, like [Centcom commander] General [David] Petraeus suggested, that the United States is paying a price with the life of American soldiers when Israel is not reaching peace with the Palestinians?\u201d Tamari continued.<\/p>\n
Gates jumped in to answer the second question.<\/p>\n
\u201cFirst of all, General Petraeus did not say that the lack of progress in the peace process is costing American lives,\u201d Gates said. \u201cAnd no one in this department, in or out of uniform, believes that.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
In Washington, Jerusalem mayor asserts no freeze<\/a>
\nApril 28, 2010<\/p>\n(JTA) — Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat called the Obama administration’s demand for a construction freeze in eastern Jerusalem a “slap in the
\nface.”<\/p>\nBarkat during a meeting with reporters in Washington on Tuesday night also denied that there is a de facto freeze on building in Jewish
\nneighborhoods of eastern Jerusalem.<\/p>\n\u201cThere are more buildings being built right now,\u201d Barkat said. \u201cIn a place like Jerusalem, we need to build for both Jews and Arabs. If we
\ngive the Palestinians any hold at all on the city, it will be a Trojan horse for the Jews in Jerusalem.\u201d<\/p>\nRegarding the strained relations between the United States and Israel, which began after the Jerusalem municipality approved new housing
\nconstruction in eastern Jerusalem during a visit in March by Vice President Joe Biden, Barkat said, “It takes time to recover from an
\nattack by an ally such as the U.S., but I believe that the tensions are now behind us.”<\/p>\n….At his news conference with U.S. House of Representatives minority whip Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.), the
\nRepublicans took shots at the White House.<\/p>\n“You see strong bipartisan support” in Congress for Israel’s claim to Jerusalem, Cantor said, “as opposed to what is coming out of the White
\nHouse.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n