{"id":594,"date":"2008-02-16T22:20:43","date_gmt":"2008-02-16T22:20:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=594"},"modified":"2008-02-16T23:10:41","modified_gmt":"2008-02-16T23:10:41","slug":"will-sanctions-and-the-mughniyah-killing-make-syria-blink","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/will-sanctions-and-the-mughniyah-killing-make-syria-blink\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Sanctions and the Mughniyah Killing Make Syria Blink?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bush administration believes the best way to convince Syria to compromise with March 14 and improve its record on the Iraq border is by increasing the pain imposed on Syrian officials and the regime. I think this will fail, but one can never tell. We will see. There are those who believe<\/a> that the situation in Lebanon is being stabilized by the heightened rhetoric of March 14, the killing of Mughniyah, and added sanctions on Syria.<\/p>\n

The irony for me is that only 3 days ago, I wrote a policy paper for people in Washington arguing that the US had little remaining leverage over Syria. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation, the Hariri trial, and "sticks" in general had not worked. Only "carrots" and engaging Syria in mutually beneficial arrangements stand a chance of influencing Damascus' policies in a direction favored by the US. On the Iraqi border, the issue I was asked to address, winning greater Syrian compliance would be relatively easy. Syria's main interest in Iraq these days is to increase trade and to make growing commerce with Iraq an integral part of the overall effort to grow the Syrian economy. It wants the Kirkuk-Banyas oil pipeline repaired and opened; it wants subsidies for the 1.5 million Iraqi refugees in Syria, it wants…. There is a long list.<\/p>\n

After writing the essay – surprise – Mughniyah was killed and President Bush announced a new order of sanctions, targeting anyone engaged in "public corruption." In essence, the deck has been cleared for a bare knuckle fight between Washington and Damascus.<\/p>\n

Many analysts<\/a> believe that Syria and Hizbullah, enraged by the insult of the Mughniyah killing, will strike out at a high-value Israeli or American target and get trapped in a cycle of revenge killings that only Washington can win. In such a war, America's superior press machine will be able to paint Damascus as a center of terrorism. Washington will lean on Europeans to join it in yet more Syrian sanctions and condemnation.<\/p>\n

But Damascus is unlikely to head unwittingly down this path. It's eyes are set on Lebanon and promoting its allies there. It is unlikely that Syria will fall into this trap and allow itself to be diverted from its primary goal by the Mughniyah provocation. Damascus will hold tight in Lebanon, preventing the election of a president and the meeting of parliament. The Lebanese economy is groaning under this regime of paralysis. Saudi Arabia pumped another billion dollars into the central bank last week to keep it afloat. US markets down-graded Lebanese debt and banks to the level of super junk, which serves to raise the price of further borrowing and refinancing for Lebanon. Such economic water-torture is designed to make March 14 suffer – after all, most of Lebanon's wealthy and globalized belong to March 14. Most of the country's poor and less globalized belong to the opposition.<\/p>\n

The battle between Washington and Damascus is largely an economic one. Washington has imposed every type of sanction on Syria it can, but to little effect. Syria's economy is growing at almost 6%. Lebanon's economy is stagnating. It has been limping along since taking a 15% dive during the Israeli clobbering of 2006. Stagnation has come despite the 7 billion dollars promised by foreign powers, military aid, and other largess, such as the Saudi infusion, from wealthy allies.<\/p>\n

Bashar al-Assad has promised his people two things: to pursue "resistance" against Israel and America in the pursuit of "Arab rights," as his father did, and to grow the economy and globalize. Syrians are fed up with being poor and sacrificing economically for a fight which hardly seems winnable. All the same, they believe in the "Arab values" and Arab identity that go along with fighting for the Golan and fighting Israel, so long as they don't have to sacrifice too much for them. Bashar al-Assad is pursuing the China model – economic liberalization and globalization – while maintaining strict political control and preserving its regional role and leverage to fight Israel and America for the return of the Golan and "Arab rights."<\/p>\n

Washington wants to cut Syria down to size and deny it any possibility of pursuing the resistance option of gaining leverage against Israel for a return of the Golan. It wants to destroy Hizbullah and to take Lebanon out of Syria's sphere of influence. It hopes to eliminate Hamas and force Syria to expel whatever resistance-minded Palestinian leaders it harbors in Damascus. In essence, Washington has set itself the task of inducing Damascus to follow a "Syria First" policy, much as Jordan follows a "Jordan First" policy. This is a tall order as it requires Syria making an ideological and strategic about face. It's entire identity would need to be turned inside out.<\/p>\n

To stand some chance of success, Washington will have to demonstrate to Syrians that America's allies are winning the battle in the Middle East – both economically and in terms of security. So far, the US is doing a miserable job demonstrating this. The Syrian economy is growing and Syria has stability. Lebanon's economy is dangerously over-extended and living on the mercy of foreign infusions. It has no security. Iraq – we won't talk about it. America calculated incorrectly in Iraq at almost every level. Today, Iraqis have no future. Syrians blame this on America, not Saddam, despite US efforts at public diplomacy.<\/p>\n

President Assad is unlikely to change course because of the new sanction law, the Mughniyah killing, and the upping of US funding for the international Hariri tribunal. This increased pressure and use of the "stick" will have to show results that the average Syrian taxi driver will understand.<\/p>\n

Washington cannot win the economic war with Syria unless it can crash the Syrian economy. The new sanction law will be hot air if it is not used to paralyse the financial freedom of Rami Makhlouf, the President's cousin and the Mr. Economy for the Syrian regime. He will have to include all the top financiers in the sanctions regime in order to make the economy stumble and scare away foreign capital. If President Bush is serious, he will have to pursue his war all the way to the end. <\/p>\n

President Assad is unlikely to blink in the face of President Bush's most recent provocations and warnings. Bush has lost his credibility in the Middle East. He is generally reviled. Most Syrians, and perhaps most Arabs, believe he is a greater terrorist than Assad because of what he has done to Iraq and Palestine. Assad has won the Arab propaganda war, even if he has lost the world propaganda battle. <\/p>\n

People believe he is a wounded lion and merely stringing out his confrontational policy until the end of his administration. Like a wounded lion, he is still dangerous, but his strength is in rapid decline. Few believe he can muster an all out fight. Certainly, he doesn't want to look weak; he doesn't want to abandon his March 14 allies; and he doesn't want to relinquish the "freedom agenda" which has become the core identity of his administration. Bush has taken a big blow in Lebanon due to his failure to anoint a new president who might allow March 14th to carry forward the anti-Hizbullah and anti-Syria fight. Bashar al-Assad and his Lebanese allies defied Western interests. They will pay a price for it. All the same, they expect to absorb the blow.<\/p>\n

It is unlikely that they will be diverted from their main policy goals by the Mughniyah assassination. If anything, they will likely rally their supporters by preaching sacrifice and endurance. They will dig in for a new round of economic strictures and pain. If Bashar cannot deliver resistance and economic growth simultaneously, Washington has a chance of winning, but of course, it will be a Pyrrhic victory. Instead of Washington drawing Damascus into a terrorist game of tit-for-tat, Damascus will draw Washington into a game of starve-the-Syrian, which is a lose-lose game for America and everyone concerned.<\/p>\n

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<\/strong>Aleppo Jazz Quartet<\/a>  in 2007 at the Citadel: Photo from here<\/a><\/p>\n

Here are the relevant articles<\/strong> about sanctions, judicial pressure, and the propaganda blame game.<\/p>\n

Bush orders sanctions against Syrian officials<\/a> WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush, stepping up pressure on Syria, ordered new sanctions Wednesday to punish officials in Damascus for alleged efforts to undermine stability in Iraq and meddle in Lebanon's sovereignty and democracy. <\/p>\n

Bush, in an executive order, said he was expanding penalties against senior government officials in Syria and their associates deemed to be responsible for — or to have benefited from — public corruption. The order did not specifically name any officials.<\/p>\n

Bush signed the order a day after Imad Mughniyeh, one of the world's most wanted and elusive terrorists, was killed in a car bombing in Syria nearly 15 years after dropping from sight. The one-time Hezbollah security chief was the suspected mastermind of attacks that killed hundreds of Americans in Lebanon and of the brutal kidnappings of Westerners.<\/p>\n

"The world is a better place without this man in it," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. "One way or the other, he was brought to justice."<\/p>\n

The White House said Wednesday's executive order built on one Bush issued in May 2004 that banned all U.S. exports to Syria except for food and medicine. His earlier action followed long-standing complaints that the Middle Eastern nation was supporting terrorism and undermining U.S. efforts in Iraq. <\/p>\n

Syria rejects new US sanctions, says Bush administration is corrupt<\/a>
By ASSOCIATED PRESS <\/span>
DAMASCUS, Syria<\/span><\/p>\n

Syria ridiculed Thursday US president George Bush's decision to expand sanctions on Syrian officials saying that a country occupying the land of others has no right to hurl accusations. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

On Wednesday President Bush ordered new sanctions to punish Syria for allegedly trying to undermine stability in Iraq and undercut Lebanon's sovereignty and democracy. <\/p>\n

"The ones who steal the resources of other countries through occupation and corruption have no right to accuse others," said a high-ranking Syrian official to the Associated Press. "The Bush administration is not matched by any government in the world when it comes to corruption." <\/p>\n

The official, who spoke on strict condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, was referring to reports of billions of dollars wasted by the US government on Iraq's reconstruction.<\/p>\n

Fadlallah blames US for prolonging political crisis<\/span>
<\/a>America has worked 'to weaken' arab initiative<\/em><\/span>
Saturday, February 16, 2008<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

BEIRUT: Senior Shiite cleric Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah lashed out at the United States on Friday accusing it of obstructing "any sort of solution" to the 14-month-old political deadlock in Lebanon. "The US has worked on weakening the Arab initiative aimed at solving the crisis in Lebanon and stirring political as well as sectarian tensions among the Lebanese," Fadlallah said during his Friday sermon at the Imam Hassanayn Mosque in Haret Hreik. <\/p>\n

The Arab three-point plan calls for electing the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) General Michel Suleiman as president, the formation of a national unity government, and the drafting of a new electoral law<\/a> for the 2009 parliamentary poll. <\/p>\n

"The situation in Lebanon is going from bad to worse and the US and its Lebanese allies should be held responsible for the deadlock in Lebanon," he said. <\/p>\n

Fadlallah added that the Lebanese live "in a state of fear and uncertainty because they no longer stand united."<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Syria is "directly responsible"<\/a> for the political crisis in Lebanon and the accompanying violence, a senior U.S. state department official said in Paris on Friday. PARIS (AFP)<\/p>\n

  "I would describe the situation as one of continuing blockage and the continued eruption of violence in Lebanon … We regard Syria as directly responsible for this situation," said David Satterfield, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's representative for Iraq. <\/p>\n

  "The role Syria has to play is very simple: to allow the Lebanese to proceed with free elections. It's not a complicated proposition," he said.  <\/p>\n

Satterfield had talks with President Nicolas Sarkozy's foreign affairs advisor Jean-David Levitte and officials from the French foreign ministry. <\/p>\n

He said Damascus had taken action to reduce the number of anti-American insurgents passing into Iraq from Syria, but had done so mainly for its own internal reasons. <\/p>\n

"These are dangerous individuals. They are individuals fundamentally threatening to Syria's interests as well. They are not good people to have in your country. <\/p>\n

"Syria we believe did take certain steps (but) we do not believe the Syrians have taken any steps for the sake of Iraq to constrain this flow. Whatever they have done has been solely for the  regime's own security purposes," he said. <\/p>\n

U.S. doubles its funds for U.N. Hariri tribunal<\/a>
February 14, 2008<\/span><\/p>\n

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States plans to double its funding of a U.N. tribunal on the killing three years ago of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Thursday.<\/p>\n

Subject to congressional notification, Washington would raise its pledge to $14 million from $7 million to help fund the U.N. tribunal's one-year budget, Rice said in a statement issued to mark the anniversary of Hariri's murder on February 14, 2005.<\/p>\n

"Lebanon, on this day of remembrance for former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and all those killed, injured or persecuted in the service of the Lebanese nation, the United States shares your sorrow, but also your hope," Rice said.<\/p>\n

"Our commitment to you and your chosen government is unshakable. We and the international community will not rest until your calls for peace, justice and freedom have been answered," she added.<\/p>\n

The United Nations has created a special tribunal to try those responsible for the assassination of Hariri, whose killing triggered international pressure that forced Syria to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon.<\/p>\n

"We hope the tribunal will help deter further political assassinations, end an era of fear for Lebanese citizens and impunity for the perpetrators of these crimes, and help protect the sovereignty of Lebanon," Rice said.<\/p>\n

U.N. investigators are also looking into other assassinations and bombings in the past three years that reflect Lebanon's lengthy conflict between the anti-Syrian government coalition and the opposition, which is led by the pro-Syrian Hezbollah group.<\/p>\n

Syria has denied any involvement in the assassinations.<\/p>\n

Lebanon's opposition and the governing coalition have been locked in a power struggle for 15 months that has paralyzed the government and left the country without a president since November.<\/p>\n

(Reporting by Sue Pleming, editing by Patricia Zengerle) <\/p>\n

Ban creates management team for Special Tribunal<\/span><\/a>
Daily Star staff, <\/span>Saturday, February 16, 2008<\/span><\/span> <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"Ban <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

United Nations<\/a> Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has established a management committee of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon being set up to try those responsible for political killings, particularly the February 2005 car bombing in Beirut that killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 22 others, a statement issued by Ban's media office said on Thursday. <\/p>\n

"The secretary general believes that this step, along with other steps announced in December of last year – the selection of the judges, the appointment of the prosecutor, the finalization of a headquarters agreement with the government of the Netherlands enabling the Tribunal to be based in that country, and agreement on a building near The Hague to house the Tribunal – are decisive landmarks in the process of making the Special Tribunal a reality," Ban's spokesperson said in a statement. <\/p>\n

The committee, which will among other tasks provide advice and policy direction on all nonjudicial aspects of the operations of the Special Tribunal and review and approve its annual budget, is composed of the body's main donors, according to the statement. <\/p>\n

The spokesperson for Ban also announced that the expected contributions to the Special Tribunal will meet the budgetary requirements for its establishment and the first 12 months of operations. Syrians are preparing to sue the United States for supplying weapons to Israel that later killed Syrians in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, said Syria's foreign minister, a day after Washington announced new sanctions against Damascus. <\/p>\n

Speaking at a press conference with his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki, Walid Moallem promised that Syria would punish the U.S. for its decision to impose fresh sanctions against Syrian officials. <\/p>\n

"This time I tell you we will punish the United States … there are scores of Syrians who became victims during the Israeli war against Lebanon, they will file lawsuits against America, who provided Israel with the weapons, he said. <\/p>\n

President George W. Bush ordered new sanctions on Wednesday to punish Syria for allegedly trying to undermine stability in Iraq and undercut Lebanon's sovereignty and democracy. <\/p>\n

Bush, in an executive order, said he was expanding sanctions against senior government officials in Syria and their associates deemed responsible for or to have benefited from public corruption. <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>President George W. Bush ordered new sanctions on Wednesday to punish Syria for allegedly trying to undermine stability in Iraq and undercut Lebanon's sovereignty and democracy. <\/p>\n

Bush, in an executive order, said he was expanding sanctions against senior government officials in Syria and their associates deemed responsible for or to have benefited from public corruption. <\/span><\/p>\n

Damascus: Syrians to sue U.S. for selling weapons to Israel<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Pressure grows on Syria's isolated regime<\/a><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
James Hider in Jerusalem
From <\/span>The Times<\/span> <\/p>\n
February 15, 2008<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Imad Mughnieh's body may be back in Beirut and the tangled wreckage of his bombed car towed away by the police but the shattering fallout of the Hezbollah commander's assassination in Syria was still reverberating through the increasingly isolated regime in Damascus yesterday. <\/p>\n

The administration, already under pressure from an international investigation into a truck bomb that killed Rafiq Haririexactly three years ago, faced fresh calls from President Bush for tighter sanctions for hosting one of the world's most wanted terrorists. <\/p>\n

Analysts said that President Assad of Syria will be under even more pressure to explain to Iran how he let one of its key assets be murdered yards from a base of the Iranian Mukhabarat [intelligence service]. <\/p>\n

Mughnieh's killing was another blow for Mr al-Assad. Mr Hariri's murder was widely blamed on Damascus and led to protests that forced Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon, where they had played a dominant role for three decades. <\/p>\n

That blow to Syria's prestige was compounded last summer by an Israeli airstrike which destroyed what some analysts believe may have been a nascent nuclear facility or chemical weapons plants deep inside the country. Then, as now, Syria appeared confused and weak, its stunned silence gradually giving way to contradictory denials from various official sources. <\/p>\n

“In terms of military deterrence Syria has taken a huge hit and they have to make it back. In this region you have to look tough,” said Meir Javendafar, an expert on Iran at the Middle East Economic and Political Analysis Company in Tel Aviv. <\/p>\n

Sensing that weakness, Washington was quick to pile on the pressure. Mr Bush ordered expanded financial sanctions against senior Syrian officials whom he accused of actions that “undermine efforts to stabilise Iraq”, where Syria is accused of sending Islamist extremists and weapons. He also charged Syria, a major backer of the Shia militia Hezbollah, with meddling in Lebanon and fermenting problems for Beirut's pro-Western Government. <\/p>\n

“I wish to emphasise … my ongoing concern over the destabilising role Syria continues to play in Lebanon, including its efforts to obstruct, through intimidation and violence, Lebanon's democratic processes,” Mr Bush said. <\/p>\n

The most intense pressure is likely to come from Iran, which lost, in Mughnieh, a vital asset in its covert, anti-Israeli and anti-American network. The fact that the hit took place in Damascus may raise suspicions that elements of the Syrian security apparatus were infiltrated or even turned.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bush administration believes the best way to convince Syria to compromise with March 14 and improve its record on the Iraq border is by increasing the pain imposed on Syrian officials and the regime. I think this will fail, but one can never tell. We will see. There are those who believe that the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4,20,15,22,43,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-hizbullah","category-israel","category-lebanon","category-sanctions","category-us"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nWill Sanctions and the Mughniyah Killing Make Syria Blink? - Syria Comment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/will-sanctions-and-the-mughniyah-killing-make-syria-blink\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will Sanctions and the Mughniyah Killing Make Syria Blink? - Syria Comment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Bush administration believes the best way to convince Syria to compromise with March 14 and improve its record on the Iraq border is by increasing the pain imposed on Syrian officials and the regime. 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