{"id":566,"date":"2008-01-19T00:00:23","date_gmt":"2008-01-19T00:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=566"},"modified":"2008-01-19T00:00:23","modified_gmt":"2008-01-19T00:00:23","slug":"t_desco-comments-on-al-qaeda-in-lebanon%e2%80%9d-by-nir-rosen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/t_desco-comments-on-al-qaeda-in-lebanon%e2%80%9d-by-nir-rosen\/","title":{"rendered":"“t_desco” Comments on “Al-Qaeda in Lebanon,\u201d by Nir Rosen"},"content":{"rendered":"

Some comments by "Syria Comment" analyst "t_desco"<\/strong> on Nir Rosen's article, "Al-Qaeda in Lebanon,” by Nir Rosen<\/font><\/u><\/p>\n

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Rougier and the Saab\/Ranstorp article, “Fatah al Islam, How an Ambitious Jihadist Project Went Awry” seem to be major sources. However, that article was probably based on “documents obtained from … interrogations of Fatah al Islam members” and it seems that Rosen also had access to the same documents:<\/p>\n

“The origins of Fatah al Islam are nebulous, but based on meetings with Palestinian-faction leaders and security officials, as well as documents obtained from their interrogations of Fatah al Islam members, it is now possible to piece together the group’s history.”<\/p>\n

Even Rougier does not claim that Fatah al-Islam was “created” by the Syrians and I don’t think that Rosen fully endorses his analysis because he immediately points out the major contradiction in it (without further comment).<\/p>\n

Here is the paragraph in question:<\/p>\n

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Bernard Rougier suggests that the Syrians wanted to impede the Hariri strategy of controlling and enlarging an Islamist coalition that could be used to fight Hezbollah. To create division in the Hariri ranks, they inserted a Salafi jihadist group who wanted to fight Israel because it would divert Sunni support from Hariri. “Then it took on its own life. It had a magnetic effect on Islamists in the country,” said Rougier. He distinguishes the local agenda, which views the real enemy as Shias, from the jihadist agenda, which “views the real enemy as the West, and Shias are third or lower on the list.” However, Syria’s strategic ally is Hezbollah, and Syria would not introduce anti-Shia and anti-Hezbollah elements into Lebanon<\/em>. (my emphasis<\/em>)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

One could add that the Syrians are probably doing what Rougier describes by putting their support behind Sheikh Fathi Yakan who (in contrast the takfiris in Fatah al-Islam) is acceptable to Hizbullah.<\/p>\n

As I said, there are many contradictions in the text, but the following is by far the most important, in my view. It is probably based on the interrogation documents (and also happens to be the main flaw in the Saab\/Ranstorp article), the idea that Fatah al-Islam became more radicalized in Nahr al-Bared:<\/p>\n

“While Fatah al Islam’s original goals may have been to liberate Palestine, more radical jihadists influenced its leaders, shifting their focus toward global jihad.”<\/p>\n

This is in direct contradiction to the following paragraphs:<\/p>\n

On November 23<\/strong> an armed patrol of different faction members was sent to the apartment (in Bedawi; t_d). … The men escaped to the Nahr al Barid camp. The security committee raided the other apartments, but the suspects had already communicated by radio and the others escaped. One Saudi was shot in the leg. When an armed Syrian comrade on a motorcycle attempted to rescue him, he too was shot and both were taken to a camp hospital. The Syrian had documents signed by Shaker al Absi. During interrogations by Palestinian security officials, the two admitted to being members of al Qaeda in Iraq who had come to Lebanon during the July war for training, recruitment, and jihad. Up to eighty men like them had entered Lebanon via Fatah al Intifada. They claimed to have come not to fight Israel but to assassinate seventeen Lebanese officials, including members of parliament, sheikhs, and members of the security forces<\/em>.<\/p>\n

A Fatah al Intifada commander handed the two men to the Lebanese army. Camp officials also found cameras, four computers, and scanners used to make fake identification documents. They found CDs with footage of training and members swearing oaths of loyalty to Osama bin Laden<\/em>.” (my emphasis<\/em>)<\/p>\n

You don’t get more radical than this. And it was only three days later<\/em>, on November 26, that Fatah al-Islam was founded<\/em>, so this nice story that the group somehow became more radicalized is totally bogus. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

[End] <\/p>\n

Also see:<\/p>\n

It's al-Qaeda, Stupid!<\/a> By Bilal Y. Saab at PostGlobal<\/p>\n

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This time in Middle East relations, it is crucial to get it right and fast. Why? Because the stakes are so high.<\/p>\n

Failure to have comprehensive peace between Arabs and Israelis is going to have consequences and repercussions of a magnitude we have never seen before. In other words, failure, at the risk of sounding too cliché, should not be an option….<\/p>\n

By spilling over from Iraq into neighboring countries and gaining new safe havens, al-Qaeda could start working on its tactical and strategic objectives. On the tactical level, al-Qaeda would work on triggering wars between its adversaries and has already begun trying. The recent firing of rockets by al-Qaeda in Iraq from southern Lebanon into northern Israel is only one example. We have seen that scenario before, only with different actors: the 1978 and 1982 Israeli invasions of Lebanon were largely in response to Palestinian attacks from southern Lebanon. At the same time, al-Qaeda would assiduously work on causing a war between Syria and Israel and a round two between Hezbollah and Israel. The biggest prize for al-Qaeda, obviously, is to ignite a war between Iran and the United States – something al-Qaeda's Iraq leader, Omar al Baghdadi, has talked about in a recent message. On the strategic level, al-Qaeda would start planning for one of its most precious goals: taking the fight to Israel's backyard by actively supporting Palestinian radical jihadists in their war against the Jewish state.<\/p>\n

So how do you stop these terrible scenarios from happening and how do you reverse the powerful trend of radicalization? Through peace. …At Annapolis, the Bush administration got it mixed up. There is nothing wrong in rallying the pro-U.S. Arab states to better contain the long-term threat of Iran, but the real and more imminent danger is not the Islamic republic, it is al-Qaeda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some comments by "Syria Comment" analyst "t_desco" on Nir Rosen's article, "Al-Qaeda in Lebanon,” by Nir Rosen Rougier and the Saab\/Ranstorp article, “Fatah al Islam, How an Ambitious Jihadist Project Went Awry” seem to be major sources. 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