{"id":510,"date":"2007-12-06T16:42:38","date_gmt":"2007-12-06T16:42:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=510"},"modified":"2007-12-06T16:42:38","modified_gmt":"2007-12-06T16:42:38","slug":"landis-syria-key-to-middle-east-peace-process-cfr-interview-with-gwertzman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/landis-syria-key-to-middle-east-peace-process-cfr-interview-with-gwertzman\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Landis: Syria Key to Middle East Peace Process,&#8221; CFR Interview with Gwertzman"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/exchange.ou.edu\/owa\/land1170@net.ou.edu\/redir.aspx?URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.cfr.org%2fpublication%2f14957%2flandis.html%3fbreadcrumb%3d%252Fpublication%252Fpublication_list%253Ftype%253Dinterview\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Landis<\/strong>: Syria Key to Middle East Peace Process<\/a><br \/>Council on Foreign Relations &#8211; New York, NY,USA<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" class=\"author-table\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>Interviewer: <\/th>\n<td class=\"authors\">\n<div class=\"name\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cfr.org\/bios\/3348\/bernard_gwertzman.html\">Bernard Gwertzman<\/a>, Consulting Editor<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>December 5, 2007<\/p>\n<div class=\"cms\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"imgleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.cfr.org\/content\/publications\/images\/landis.jpg\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Joshua Landis\" width=\"100\" height=\"125\" \/>\u00a0<strong>Let\u2019s start with the<\/strong> <strong>Annapolis Middle East peace conference last week. I think many people were surprised that Syria showed up, albeit with a deputy foreign minister instead of a foreign minister. How did this happen?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Syria was wooed. There was intense diplomacy prior to Syria\u2019s accepting. The prime minister of Turkey, Recip Tayyip Erdogan, apparently called the Syrian President Bashar Assad four times. The Saudis called him as well. King Abdullah of Jordan visited him. It was the first time he\u2019d done that in years, and he was very solicitous. Various European foreign ministers visited Lebanon and they talked to the Syrians. Everybody was pushing the Syrians to come.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Because this is a turning point and Syria is key to the peace process. If you keep the door closed on Syria, many people believe the peace process can go nowhere. The Saudis did not want to come and genuflect to the whole peace process if the Syrians were not along, because they needed Arab nationalist cover. And there were two agendas going on here: One agenda was to push the peace process forward and try to get the Bush administration committed to it in a serious way. The other factor on the agenda was to create some sort of Arab community in order to isolate Iran and raise the pressure on Iran, because I think it\u2019s widely understood that the only way you\u2019re going to isolate Iran in the future is to repair the deep schisms and divisions between Arab states\u2014and this schism is primarily between Syria and Saudi Arabia, because Iran\u2019s reach into the Arab world, and its influence, is largely through Syria. Of course it\u2019s through Iraq as well, but we can\u2019t do much about Iraq. The idea of flipping Syria has been on everybody\u2019s lips. If you can draw Syria away from Iran and back towards Saudi Arabia, then arms cannot get to Hezbollah in Lebanon because they go through Syria from Iran. Hamas, in Palestine, also would become much more isolated than it is now. It would have no support within the Arab world.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What actually happened at the conference? Did<\/strong> <strong>Syria say much?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>They did not say much. They were very quiet, and they were jubilant. What happened at the conference was that, evidently, the Lebanese delegation was blindsided by the announcement that Michel Sulieman, chief of staff of the Lebanese Army, was being put forward as a compromise choice for that country\u2019s new president. This was seen largely, and by the Lebanese delegation, as a victory for Syria and the opposition, Hezbollah, and a defeat for the March 14<sup>th<\/sup> group [an anti-Syrian political coalition set up in the wake of the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister of Lebanon in 2005]\u2014and for America, which had insisted that there should be no amendments to the Lebanese constitution and that the democratic process should carry forward according to law. In order to have the chief of staff become president, there needs to be an amendment to the constitution, because it is currently illegal.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s your opinion? Do you think this is a great defeat for March 14<sup>th<\/sup>, or is it a good compromise?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I think it\u2019s an excellent compromise for Lebanon, and I think that many people, even within March 14<sup>th<\/sup>, felt that this is the best way forward for Lebanon. Unfortunately, because of the ideological divisions between America and Iran, because of the terrible bad blood between the opposition and the majority, everything is seen in terms of defeat and victory. Unfortunately, that\u2019s where we stand, and it\u2019s not clear that Michel Sulieman will come through this whole process, because there are many jealousies and there is a lot of anger in Lebanon. <\/p>\n<p>So even though France and Egypt, who seem to be the main architects of this compromise, went up to the Lebanese delegation during Annapolis and said, \u201cCongratulations on your new President,\u201d and the March 14<sup>th<\/sup> group said, \u201cYes we will accept this,\u201d it\u2019s not clear that even the opposition had agreed. Because General Michel Aoun [a pro-Syrian Maronite Christian], who wanted to be president, is balking at this. He wants further compromise. There\u2019s still a lot of factualism. <\/p>\n<p><strong>It\u2019s not a deal?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not a done deal. It\u2019s just that France, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the outside powers all support it.<\/p>\n<p><strong>I thought Aoun had said he backed it.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Well he\u2019s now saying he would back it, but he said \u201cYes, but I want to guarantee that I have a position\u2026\u201d There\u2019s a long list of things he wants. And, you know, everybody\u2019s trying to get their last-minute extra. There\u2019s a lot more haggling in Beirut. In a sense, though, this seems to be a major victory for Bashar Assad, because, two years ago, everybody was saying, \u201cHe\u2019s on his last leg, he\u2019s weak, and his regime is shuddering, it may fall.\u201d <\/p>\n<div class=\"pullquote_left\">\n<p>Syria is key to the peace process. If you keep the door closed on Syria, many people believe the peace process can go nowhere.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Syrian opposition said, \u201cWe\u2019re going to be in Damascus in six months.\u201d The Syrians were anxious. Today, there is no anxiety about this. Now, what do you do with this? A diplomatic victory only takes you so far, and Syria is a poor country, a weak country. \u00a0It\u2019s got to turn this upswing into money and a chicken in every Syrian\u2019s pot. The economic question is the big question going forward: can this government carry out economic reforms and really drag Syria into the globalized world?<\/p>\n<p><strong>It would seem to me, as a non-Syrian expert, that a peace agreement with Israel would be the highest priority, because that would open up<\/strong> <strong>Syria to outside investments. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It would. That\u2019s what\u2019s dividing Syria from Saudi Arabia, because Saudi Arabia essentially wants to team up with Israel against Iran. That undermines Syria\u2019s position. The more the Arab world forgets about the Palestinians and the Arab-Israeli conflict and teams up with Israel, the less Israel has to care about making peace with Syria, and the less leverage Syria has to get back the Golan heights. So Syria has to keep the Arab-Israeli conflict alive\u2014with Hezbollah, Lebanon, Hamas, or with any proxy it can, because Syria does not have the capability to hurt Israel militarily.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Now let\u2019s talk a bit about the<\/strong> <strong>Golan Heights. Back in 2000, Israel and Syria were excruciatingly close to a peace agreement. Can it be revived?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The problem is that Syria is weaker than it was then. You know everyone argues about whether the war in the summer of 2006 was really a win for Hezbollah or a win for Israel. And, in the long-run, although in the short-term it seemed to be a win for Hezbollah, in the long-term Israel has made considerable gains.<\/p>\n<div class=\"pullquote_right\">\n<p>What Syria has done is announce that it is willing to bargain. It\u2019s not going to stick with Iran against the United States, come hell or high water.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Hezbollah has had its ears pinned back. It\u2019s now about twelve miles away from the Israeli border, and even though it\u2019s trying to rearm and so forth, it\u2019s not clear that Hezbollah would want to or can carry out another confrontation with Israel. <\/p>\n<p>Israel frightened Hezbollah and set them back, and this was a lesson to Syria. Israel in September carried out this air raid on Syria [against a suspected nuclear plant] without any repercussions, seemingly. It\u2019s very clear that Syria does not have the kind of military option it had before through proxies, when Hamas seemed to be victorious in the occupied territories, and Hezbollah was the greatest power in Lebanon. <\/p>\n<p><strong>You know, it\u2019s interesting, because there\u2019s been a lot of speculation that, because the Palestinians are so divided, with two different Palestinian governments, that it would be easier for Israel to negotiate a deal with Syria. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The trouble is that Syria is too weak. <\/p>\n<p><strong>You mean it can\u2019t give up a strip of land?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yes, but it\u2019s too weak in a sense that all the Israelis I talk to say, \u201cSyria\u2019s asking too much for the Golan.\u201d In other words, they want too much. They have to make some major concessions. And, most recently, we\u2019ve seen a number of Israeli politicians say, \u201cWell, let\u2019s have a hundred-year lease for the Golan.\u201d That seems to be the starting point for an Israeli negotiation: Let\u2019s roll back to where we were in 2000.\u201d A lease evokes a very different sort of relationship, and this is what the Israelis are putting forward, so it means the Syrians have to negotiate back from this kind of idea. And they, of course, want everything according to international law.<\/p>\n<p><strong>I see. So the Syrians want what the Egyptians got in the 1979 peace treaty with Israel\u2014the return of all the occupied land in the Sinai?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>They want everything. They say, \u201cLet\u2019s follow the line, let\u2019s follow international law.\u201d And, even there, international law is a little bit ambiguous, because there are several different lines. There\u2019s the 1923 line, there\u2019s the 1967 armistice line, and they want the one that is the most favorable to them, which is 1967.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Okay, so in your view the likelihood of any negotiations starting is what, slim?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Well for official negotiations, I think it is fairly slim. But on the other hand, everybody wants to keep the door open for a number of reasons. Israel wants the peace process, and not necessarily peace. I know this is the phrase Israel usually uses against the Syrians, but in this case I think it\u2019s been reversed. <\/p>\n<p>Why do they want the process? For two major reasons: One, it means that Hezbollah will stay down in the farm, because as long as Syria is trying to woo Israel, it\u2019s going to put the brakes on any activity from Hezbollah. Secondly, Israel can carry out negotiations with the Palestinians more easily, so long as Syria is being sweet. Because they can always threaten the Palestinians: \u201cWell, if you don\u2019t make a deal with us, we\u2019ll just go off and make a deal with the Syrians and you\u2019ll be totally isolated and we\u2019ll kick you around. We\u2019ll put more pressure on you.\u201d It\u2019s a much better negotiating position for the Israelis, to have both countries.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What does this mean in terms of the Syrian-Iranian relationship?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>What Syria has done is announce that it is willing to bargain. It\u2019s not going to stick with Iran against theUnited States, come hell or high water. Over a year ago, Bashar Assad had said if the Golan is on the table, he would put relationships with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas on the table. Everything is on the table. By coming to Annapolis, he upset the Iranians. He upset the Palestinians.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Landis: Syria Key to Middle East Peace ProcessCouncil on Foreign Relations &#8211; New York, NY,USA Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor December 5, 2007 \u00a0Let\u2019s start with the Annapolis Middle East peace conference last week. I think many people were surprised that Syria showed up, albeit with a deputy foreign minister instead of a foreign minister. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[39,15,22,23,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iran","category-israel","category-lebanon","category-peace","category-us"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>&quot;Landis: Syria Key to Middle East Peace Process,&quot; CFR Interview with Gwertzman - Syria Comment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/landis-syria-key-to-middle-east-peace-process-cfr-interview-with-gwertzman\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"&quot;Landis: Syria Key to Middle East Peace Process,&quot; CFR Interview with Gwertzman - Syria Comment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Landis: Syria Key to Middle East Peace ProcessCouncil on Foreign Relations &#8211; New York, NY,USA Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor December 5, 2007 \u00a0Let\u2019s start with the Annapolis Middle East peace conference last week. 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