{"id":3309,"date":"2009-06-15T16:45:42","date_gmt":"2009-06-15T16:45:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=3309"},"modified":"2009-06-16T09:03:34","modified_gmt":"2009-06-16T09:03:34","slug":"iran-mitchell-lebanon-and-iraq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/iran-mitchell-lebanon-and-iraq\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran, Mitchell, Lebanon and Iraq"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Syrians were split on the Ahmedinehad victory. Damascene friends called me to express their contentment when they believed that Mousavi was slated to win, as al-Jazeera suggested early on. I was with family in Latakia over the weekend when the Ahmadinejad landslide was announced. Many people in that coastal city smiled happily when they asked me what I thought of the Iranian election results. They were particularly gratified to have an American reaction. I plan to write about my trip soon and about the building boom taking place in Syria.<\/p>\n

Juan Cole presents Six arguments<\/a> for why the Iranian Presidential Election Was Stolen.<\/p>\n

Gary Sick<\/a>: “The willingness of the regime simply to ignore reality and fabricate election results without the slightest effort to conceal the fraud represents a historic shift in Iran\u2019s Islamic revolution. All previous leaders at least paid lip service to the voice of the Iranian people. This suggests that Iran\u2019s leaders are aware of the fact that they have lost credibility in the eyes of many (most?) of their countrymen, so they are dispensing with even the pretense of popular legitimacy in favor of raw power….”<\/p>\n

Tritta Parsi: “It’s one thing if Ahmadinejad had won the first round with 51 or 55 per cent. But this number … just sounds tremendously strange in a way that doesn’t add up … It is difficult to feel comfortable that this occurred without any cheating.”<\/p>\n

(Addendum<\/strong>) T_Desco does not argue that Ahmeddinejad won, as I first wrote. See his correction of me in the comment section. Brian collects arguments that he won fairly, also in the comment section below.<\/p>\n

T-Desco explains the elections <\/strong> – here<\/a>, here <\/a>and here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The WSJ<\/a> argues that Ahmadinejad’s victory is good for Syria. (Thanks T_desco and Norman)<\/p>\n

\u201cNot all big Arab states stand to lose with Mr. Ahmadinejad\u2019s victory. Former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell, Mr. Obama\u2019s top Mideast envoy, is in Damascus Saturday for talks with Syrian officials.<\/p>\n

With Mr. Ahmadinejad likely staying put in Tehran, Washington may have more interest in trying to woo President Bashar Assad away from Iran\u2019s orbit. That could translate into leverage for Damascus amid U.S.-Syria negotiations. For instance, Syria wants the U.S. to loosen economic sanctions imposed on it for alleged links to terror financing.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Also in the WSJ<\/a><\/p>\n

“… Sen. Mitchell flew into Damascus after a stopover in Beirut, …. A big part of the thaw has been the dramatic rehabilitation of Syria’s Mr. Assad in the eyes of many Western and Arab officials.<\/p>\n

The Bush administration and its Western and regional allies spent years isolating Syria. ….. But Mr. Assad also proved instrumental in a Qatar-backed peace plan last Spring that ended a long political standoff in Lebanon. Shortly after, he entered into indirect peace talks with arch-foe Israel.<\/p>\n

Mr. Assad’s hands-off approach in recent months in Lebanon has encouraged some Western officials and analysts into thinking he’s eager to play a supporting role in cooling Mideast tensions further.<\/p>\n

The Lebanon elections, though they went against Syria, may help pave the way for more productive talks with Washington, says Joshua Landis …<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad holds onto power in Friday elections, Mr. Assad could be a useful ally for Washington in pressuring Iran into meaningful talks. Sen. Mitchell’s stopover follows lower-level visits by U.S. diplomats in recent weeks. U.S. officials are pressing for help stabilizing the Iraq-Syria border and for support in Arab-Israel peace efforts….”<\/p>\n

Mitchell Cites Syria\u2019s Role in Mideast Peace Effort<\/a>
\nBy THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
\nPublished: June 13, 2009<\/p>\n

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) \u2014 George J. Mitchell, the Obama administration\u2019s Middle East envoy, said during a visit with Syrian leaders here on Saturday that the country had a vital role to play in forging peace in the region…..<\/p>\n

\u201cSyria has an integral role to play in reaching comprehensive peace,\u201d Mr. Mitchell said. Syria and the United States share an obligation \u201cto create conditions for negotiations to begin promptly and end successfully,\u201d he told reporters after a 90-minute meeting with President Bashar al-Assad in the capital, Damascus.<\/p>\n

A senior Syrian official described Saturday\u2019s talks as \u201cvery positive\u201d and said Mr. Mitchell and Mr. Assad also discussed the security situation in neighboring Iraq. …..<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve held substantive discussions with President Assad and on the full range of serious issues in our bilateral relationship,\u201d Mr. Mitchell said. \u201cWe seek to build on this effort to establish a relationship built on mutual respect and mutual interest.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite the diplomatic overtures, the Obama administration renewed Bush-era economic sanctions against Syria last month as a way to keep pressure on the country to cooperate.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The following article by Scarlett Haddad<\/strong> (copied below in part) explains why Hizbullah and Syria are content with the election loss in Lebanon. It reviews a number of parliamentary seats that Hizbullah and Syria withdrew candidates from, resulting in March 14th or Jumblatt victories. It also argues that Saudi Arabia and Syria are coming to terms on Lebanon, as they did in the 1990s. Saad Hariri will preside over the government, but Syria’s and HIzbullah’s political interests will be respected. This makes sense for it goes a long way to explain the outcome of the elections as well as the behavior of all sides and accords with the new dynamic of compromise that is taking hold in the region now that Bush is gone.<\/p>\n

If Walid Jumblatt is the bellwether of Lebanese politics, his recent mia culpa is significant:<\/p>\n

Walid Jumblatt today spoke about his mistakes in being aggressive in criticizing Bashar Assad in the past and he said that Syria is Lebanon\u2019s natural depth and he said that 1559 was the worst thing to happen to Lebanon \u2026 and that all that must be put behind them as they all work together as one \u2026<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Et si le Hezbollah ne voulait pas vraiment gagner les \u00e9lections<\/a>? (Thanks Why Discuss)
\nPar Scarlett HADDAD | 13\/06\/2009 l\u2019Orient (Read the whole article.)<\/p>\n

….De plus, le Hezbollah avait aussi saisi avant tous ses autres partenaires au sein de l\u2019opposition le d\u00e9sint\u00e9r\u00eat de la Syrie \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du processus \u00e9lectoral libanais. Alors que certains alli\u00e9s de la Syrie annon\u00e7aient sans rel\u00e2che que Damas comptait entrer dans la bataille \u00e9lectorale par le Akkar, la B\u00e9kaa-Ouest et Tripoli, rien ne s\u2019est pass\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fermeture des bureaux de vote. M\u00eame auparavant, certains piliers de l\u2019opposition s\u2019\u00e9taient plaints aupr\u00e8s des dirigeants syriens d\u2019un afflux d\u2019argent en provenance d\u2019Arabie saoudite, contrairement \u00e0 l\u2019accord conclu entre le roi Abdallah d\u2019Arabie, l\u2019\u00e9mir du Qatar et le pr\u00e9sident Bachar el-Assad au cours de leur rencontre au sommet du Kowe\u00eft, lorsqu\u2019ils s\u2019\u00e9taient mis d\u2019accord pour ne pas intervenir dans le cours des \u00e9lections libanaises. L\u00e0 aussi, les autorit\u00e9s syriennes n\u2019avaient pas r\u00e9agi, tout comme elles n\u2019\u00e9taient pas non plus intervenues dans la composition des listes de l\u2019opposition, laissant quasiment tomber certains de ses alli\u00e9s. De l\u2019aveu de certains chefs de l\u2019opposition, la Syrie n\u2019a donc rien fait pour favoriser une victoire de ses alli\u00e9s. Et lorsque la question a \u00e9t\u00e9 directement pos\u00e9e aux dirigeants syriens, ceux-ci ont laiss\u00e9 entendre que le r\u00e9sultat des \u00e9lections ne compte pas, \u00e0 partir du moment o\u00f9 les relations entre Damas et Washington sont en train de s\u2019am\u00e9liorer, tout comme celles de Damas et de Riyad. Les autorit\u00e9s syriennes seraient donc pr\u00eates \u00e0 ouvrir une nouvelle page avec Saad Hariri devenu Premier ministre, du moment que leurs relations avec les dirigeants saoudiens sont devenues plus cordiales. D\u2019ailleurs, comme toujours, c\u2019est Walid Joumblatt qui a donn\u00e9 le ton en d\u00e9clarant hier au Akhbar que \u00ab Saad Hariri peut dialoguer avec la Syrie, et cela est in\u00e9vitable \u00bb. Mais plus important que les consid\u00e9rations internes libanaises, la Syrie a des d\u00e9fis r\u00e9gionaux et internationaux \u00e0 relever. Elle s\u2019appr\u00eate \u00e0 relancer le processus de n\u00e9gociations avec Isra\u00ebl et souhaite montrer de bonnes dispositions \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019Occident. Pour elle, les \u00e9lections libanaises ne constituent pas un enjeu tr\u00e8s important, d\u2019autant que ses alli\u00e9s libanais restent forts et en mesure de s\u2019opposer \u00e0 d\u2019\u00e9ventuelles d\u00e9cisions qui visent \u00e0 les marginaliser\u2026<\/p>\n

En somme, les r\u00e9sultats des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives arrangent un peu tout le monde, l\u2019\u00e9quilibre des forces est pratiquement inchang\u00e9, ce qui rassure l\u2019Occident, et la victoire indiscutable de Saad Hariri lui permet de jouer un r\u00f4le nouveau sur la sc\u00e8ne interne et r\u00e9gionale. Seuls ceux qui esp\u00e9raient un v\u00e9ritable changement sont d\u00e9\u00e7us\u2026<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"\"US could lift Syria sanctions: Carter<\/a><\/p>\n

DAMASCUS (AFP) \u2014 Former US president Jimmy Carter said on Thursday he believed the new US administration of President Barack Obama could lift sanctions on Syria and upgrade ties by sending an ambassador to Damascus.<\/p>\n

“I think the United States will respond… to any positive steps that Syria takes,” Carter said at a press conference after meeting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Foreign Minister Walid Muallem.<\/p>\n

“There’s no doubt on my mind that the American president wants to have full and cooperative relationships with Syria, and that involves the lifting of sanctions in the future and that also involves the appointment of an American ambassador to Damascus,” he said.<\/p>\n

State media accuses Israeli PM of rejecting all peace initiatives by conditionally accepting Palestinian state.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Netanyahu’s<\/strong> speech:http:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/hasen\/spages\/1092810.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Obama\u2019s response<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe president welcomes the important step forward in Prime Minister Netanyahu\u2019s speech,\u201d White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said in a written statement. \u201cThe president is committed to two states, a Jewish state of Israel and an independent Palestine, in the historic homeland of both peoples. He believes this solution can and must ensure both Israel\u2019s security and the fulfillment of the Palestinians\u2019 legitimate aspirations for a viable state, and he welcomes Prime Minister Netanyahu\u2019s endorsement of that goal.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Syrian state media on Monday slammed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu<\/a> for “torpedoing peace” in a speech accepting a Palestinian state but shackled by unacceptable conditions.<\/p>\n

“Netanyahu’s speech torpedoes all peace efforts” wrote the mass-circulation Al-Watan in its report of Sunday’s speech.<\/p>\n

Al-Baath, the mouthpiece of Syria’s ruling party, commented: “Netanyahu has confirmed that he rejects the Arab initiative for peace along with all the initiatives and resolutions of the Security Council relative to peace” in the Middle East…..<\/p>\n

Another Syrian newspaper, Ath-Thawra, said Israel appeared to be far from thinking about peace.<\/p>\n

The Israeli leader’s speech “shows it is useless to await any change in the programme of Netanyahu or the Israeli government,” it said.<\/p>\n

“The United States, which is working for peace, finds itself today with two alternatives: they can either go back and maintain the status quo marked by crisis, which we hope doesn’t happen, or assume their responsibilities in pushing Israel to talk seriously in order to bring about peace and security.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Suleiman: Netanyahu’s Rigid Stance Calls For More Arab Unity, Safeguarding the Resistance<\/a><\/p>\n

“The Israeli stance expressed by PM Netanyahu is characterized with rigidity, whether in dealing with the issue of peace, or on the level of settling the issue of Palestinian refugees. [This] calls on Arab leaders for more unity and to safeguard the spirit and willingness of the resistance,” Suleiman said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Iraq and Syria<\/strong><\/p>\n

U.S. commander sees fewer foreign fighters in Iraq<\/a>
\nMon Jun 15, 2009<\/p>\n

BAGHDAD, June 15 (Reuters) – Iraq has seen a significant fall in the number of foreign fighters arriving to battle U.S. and local forces, and efforts by neighbouring Syria are starting to bear fruit, U.S. General Ray Odierno said on Monday….<\/p>\n

“We have seen a significant decrease in the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq in the last eight to 10 months,” Odierno, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, told a news conference alongside the Iraqi defence and interior ministers. “For the most part it has just been a trickle … We have seen some fighters coming through Syria, but Syria has been taking some action over the last few weeks, so hopefully that will continue,” Odierno said. Violence in Iraq has dropped sharply in the past year…..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Stable Iraq Key to U.S.-Syria Dialogue<\/strong>
\nBy Peter Harling
\n1 June 2009, Defense News<\/p>\n

Engagement with Syria has been featured among the U.S. administration\u2019s prom\u00adised foreign policy changes, yet so far a mechanism for coopera\u00adtion has elud\u00aded both sides. Renewed negotiations with Israel must wait for the political dust to settle in Jerusalem.<\/p>\n

Damascus is unlikely to ac\u00adcede to U.S. requests for shifting poli\u00adcies toward Hamas or Hizbollah, and certainly will not do so before signifi\u00adcant progress has been made on oth\u00ader fronts. The United States has renewed sanctions.<\/p>\n

That leaves the topic of Iraq, where both sides expected the road to be smoothest because of apparent shared interests. In\u00adstead, U.S. officials accuse Dam\u00adascus of allowing \u2014 if not abet\u00adting \u2014 the infiltration of militants across the border to Iraq.<\/p>\n

Securing this border was sup\u00adposed to be the most straightfor\u00adward of issues, but the question is more complicated than it first appeared and will require a broader discussion about politi\u00adcal reconciliation in Iraq and a better understanding of Damas\u00adcus\u2019 fluctuating relationship with Sunni armed groups.
\n
\nDifferent Perspective<\/strong><\/p>\n

When Iraq\u2019s former regime col\u00adlapsed, Syria openly supported those resisting the occupation, busing militants across the bor\u00adder and creating an image that has shaped U.S. opinion ever since. However, the intensifying conflict transformed Syria\u2019s threat perception from one cen\u00adtered on the U.S. agenda for the region to one more concerned about Iraq\u2019s breakup, sectarian dynamics, the influx of refugees and the uncomfortable expansion of Iranian influence.<\/p>\n

Syria\u2019s policy also was driven by the government\u2019s desire to de\u00adflect its own jihadi problem and rid itself of home-grown activists while placating the jihadi move\u00adment as a whole. That policy eventually backfired: Those who didn\u2019t die came back more expe\u00adrienced, better connected and ful\u00adly indoctrinated \u2014 more of a risk than before.<\/p>\n

As Iraqi Sunnis turned away from foreign volunteers and Dam\u00adascus adjusted its own posture, Syria lost both a useful outlet and the indulgence of the jihadi com\u00admunity. A series of violent inci\u00addents culminating in the 2008 bomb attack in the Syrian capital underscored this shift.<\/p>\n

Syria\u2019s dysfunctional border controls are also an important factor. Corruption has long been rife, enabling cross-border net\u00adworks to operate with cover from high-ranking officials. Moreover, technology is deficient; Damas\u00adcus only recently introduced a centralized computer system to monitor entries and exits.<\/p>\n

Despite an antiquated approach to illegal crossings, notable ef\u00adforts have been made, such as en\u00adgaging tribes, improving routine controls, and even cracking down on corrupt magnates in order to better protect Syrian territory.<\/p>\n

Ironically, Syrian officials now complain that the United States and Iraq aren\u2019t doing enough on the Iraqi side to seal the border.<\/p>\n

Two issues stand out. First, the ambiguous links that Washington accuses Damascus of enjoying with al-Qaida and other armed groups provide Syria with far bet\u00adter intelligence on the former and more leverage on the latter than the search-and-destroy approach typically pursued by the United States. In other words, Syria may think twice about severing ties that bolster its security and en\u00adhance its political clout,<\/p>\n

Second, opening and closing the tap of insurgents going into Iraq likely will remain a valuable pressure point for Damascus in future negotiations with the United States. That said, while U.S. demands on Syria are clear, Syria\u2019s expectations are clouded in strategic ambiguity.<\/p>\n

There are other obstacles to ef\u00adfective security cooperation. The uneven quality of U.S. intelli\u00adgence, particularly human intelli\u00adgence from questionable Iraqi sources, along with a propensity to favor short-term benefits over long-term infiltration, has gener\u00adated skepticism in Syrian quar\u00adters. It will take time before enough trust exists for the Syrian regime to allow the U.S. to by\u00adpass political interlocutors and engage the intelligence communi\u00adty directly.<\/p>\n

Perhaps most important, no matter what is done in Damas\u00adcus, U.S. efforts to eradicate the insurgency will only go so far without a political breakthrough in Iraq. Less violence and suc\u00adcessful elections in Iraq have led only to token reconciliation and little reform. Simply arresting ever more opponents is not a so\u00adlution while fundamental issues go unaddressed. Security steps are not what will make the biggest difference in Iraq now.<\/p>\n

Political ones will. And that is also the arena where cooperation with Syria may prove the most fruitful.<\/p>\n

Today, Damascus has a keen in\u00adterest in Iraqi stability, after hav\u00ading paid a high price for promot\u00ading the reverse. Moreover, at a time when its economy is danger\u00adously ailing, it wants to become an outlet for Iraq\u2019s oil products, a supplier for its emerging markets and a route for transit trade. De\u00adveloping economic ties will en\u00adhance Syrian buy-in.<\/p>\n

Officials also have realized that an unstable Iraq serves Iran, not Syria, and now see value in recon\u00adciliation. If Washington pressures Baghdad to implement a genuine reconciliation process, Syria can help by using its access to impor\u00adtant insurgent players. In that context, sifting unredeemable al\u00adQaida elements from more main\u00adstream resistance will become easier. Only if it is built on a shared vision, with promise of sustainable economic benefits rather than immediate security gains, can the U.S.-Syrian dia\u00adlogue on Iraq succeed.<\/p>\n

By Peter Harling , the Damascus-based director for Iraq, Syria and Lebanon with the International Crisis Group, an independ\u00adent, nonprofit, non\u00adgovernmental organization working to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Why is Dennis Ross being ousted as Obama envoy to Iran<\/a>? (Thanks T_desco)
\nBy Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondent<\/p>\n

Dennis Ross, who most recently served as a special State Department envoy to Iran, will abruptly be relieved of his duties, sources in Washington told Haaretz. An official announcement is expected in the coming days.<\/p>\n

The Obama administration will announce that Ross has been reassigned to another position in the White House. In his new post, the former Mideast peace envoy under President Bill Clinton will deal primarily with regional issues related to the peace process.<\/p>\n

Washington insiders speculate that a number of reasons moved the administration to reassign Ross. One possibility is Iran\u2019s persistent refusal to accept Ross as a U.S. emissary given the diplomat\u2019s Jewish background as well as his purported pro-Israel leanings. Ross is known to maintain contacts with numerous senior officials in Israel\u2019s defense establishment and the Israeli government.<\/p>\n

Diplomatic sources in Jerusalem surmised that another possibility for Ross\u2019 ouster is his just-released book, \u201cMyths, Illusions, and Peace – Finding a New Direction for America in the Middle East.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ross, who co-wrote the book with David Makovsky, a former journalist who is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, argued against a linkage between the Palestinian issue and the West\u2019s policy against Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions.<\/p>\n

Ross and Mokovsky also raised the possibility of military action against Iran.<\/p>\n

\u201cTougher policies – either militarily or meaningful containment – will be easier to sell internationally and domestically if we have diplomatically tried to resolve our differences with Iran in a serious and credible fashion,\u201d they wrote.<\/p>\n

Another possible reason for the reshuffle could be Ross\u2019 dissatisfaction with his present standing in the State Department, particularly given the fact that Washington\u2019s two other envoys to the region – George Mitchell, who is overseeing the Mideast peace process; and Richard Holbrooke, who is dealing with Pakistan and Afghanistan – wield great influence and are featured prominently.<\/p>\n

A diplomatic source in Jerusalem speculated that perhaps Ross preferred to work for the National Security Agency, which answers directly to President Barack Obama, and would thus be considered a more enhanced role. (\u2026)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Syrians were split on the Ahmedinehad victory. Damascene friends called me to express their contentment when they believed that Mousavi was slated to win, as al-Jazeera suggested early on. I was with family in Latakia over the weekend when the Ahmadinejad landslide was announced. 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Damascene friends called me to express their contentment when they believed that Mousavi was slated to win, as al-Jazeera suggested early on. I was with family in Latakia over the weekend when the Ahmadinejad landslide was announced. 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