{"id":25687,"date":"2018-09-06T17:21:31","date_gmt":"2018-09-06T21:21:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=25687"},"modified":"2018-09-06T17:21:31","modified_gmt":"2018-09-06T21:21:31","slug":"loyalty-over-geography-re-interpreting-the-notion-of-useful-syria-by-matthias-sulz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/loyalty-over-geography-re-interpreting-the-notion-of-useful-syria-by-matthias-sulz\/","title":{"rendered":"Loyalty over geography: Re-interpreting the notion of \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 — By Matthias Sulz"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Loyalty over geography: Re-interpreting the notion of \u2018Useful Syria\u2019
\n<\/strong>By Matthias Sulz *
\nFor Syria Comment<\/em>: Sept. 6, 2018
\n
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the offensive to reconquer Idlib starts, it is useful to recall that the notion of \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 as geographic reference to the population-rich axis of Aleppo-Homs-Damascus, as well as the coastal areas of Latakia and Tartus, does not accurately reflect the regime\u00b4s intention of reconquering all of Syria. This makes the Idlib offensive not the end of the civil war, but merely its next stage that will be followed by further regime manoeuvring and fighting to retake the country\u00b4s north and east. It makes more sense to reconceptualise \u00b4Useful Syria\u00b4 in terms of loyalty, i.e. as reference to the regime\u2019s policies to consolidate its power by rewarding loyalty and punishing \u2018betrayal\u2019.<\/em><\/p>\n

The term \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 was popularised by analysts in July 2015 after a deal between the regime and rebels was struck to end the siege of al-Fuah and Kafraya, two towns in Idlib in the north-west of Syria. The Shiite population of the two cities was exchanged with the population of the Sunni towns of Madaya and Zabadani near Damascus, cities that had also been besieged by the Syrian regime. Since then, it has become a shorthand reference to the Aleppo-Homs-Damascus axis, as well as Syria\u2019s coastal regions, with the implication that, in a pinch, the regime would consider restoration of its control over these areas as an acceptable outcome of the war. In a candid speech on 26 July 2015, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in fact conceded that the Syrian army could not guard every spot of Syrian soil because otherwise more crucial areas would be infiltrated by \u2018terrorists\u2019, endangering their stability. But Assad did not use the words \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 to refer to these territories. Rather, four minutes later into the same speech, he stressed that all regions of Syria are equal and that the regime does not discriminate, but that military exigencies require a temporary preference to defend the more strategically important areas first.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Western analysts soon framed a kind of \u2018Useful Syria\u2019-doctrine that would supposedly guide the Syrian regime\u00b4s strategy to consolidate its grip over said parts of the country[1]<\/a> and of Iran to connect Hezbollah\u2019s strongholds in Lebanon with Syria\u2019s coastal region.[2]<\/a> This, however, ignored the repeatedly and publicly stated intent of the regime to take back \u2018every inch of Syria\u2019.[3]<\/a> Tellingly, the term \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 has\u00a0 not once been employed by the Syrian regime\u2019s itself. The only article in Syrian state media that refers to this concept heavily criticizes the notion and sees it as a US invention aimed at splitting up Syria and to maintain its military base in al-Tanf on the Syrian-Iraqi border.[4]<\/a> So, where does the term \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 come from if not from the Syrian regime?<\/p>\n

Historically, \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 meant something different. Around 1920, the French used it in a bid to maintain control over today\u2019s Syria and the petroleum resources of Mosul while renouncing their claim to \u2018Greater Syria\u2019, which included Palestine and Jordan. At the time, Palestine and Jordan were considered \u2018Useless Syria\u2019. As it happened, the French Prime Minister Clemenceau in the end also had to surrender the Mosul region to his British counterpart, Lloyd George, under intense pressure, but managed to retain 23,75% of the shares of what would later become the Iraq Petroleum Company for the \u2018Compagnie fran\u00e7aise des p\u00e9troles\u2019 (now Total).[5]<\/a><\/p>\n

More recently, the French journalist Georges Malbrunot used the expression \u2018Syrie utile\u2019 in an article in Le Figaro in 2012[6]<\/a>, predicting that the Syrian regime might have to withdraw to the country\u2019s economic and population centres. In making his case, Malbrunot took a page from the French colonial playbook in Algeria: keep control over economically relevant regions as basis for fighting a long war of attrition against internal \u2018enemies\u2019.<\/p>\n

The dichotomy of useful\/useless (utile\/inutile) is well known to the French as they widely practiced it during their colonial rule in Africa. The French aimed to control cities at the coast as well as resource-rich regions in the periphery (\u2018Afrique utile\u2019) while marginalizing economically irrelevant regions (\u2018Afrique inutile\u2019).[7]<\/a> French policy in Morocco is a good example of this practice: the French focused on controlling the urban centres of Rabat and Casablanca but left the Rif region to its own devices, the effects of which can still be felt today.[8]<\/a><\/p>\n

When one applies this economic approach to Syria, it is self-evident that the agriculture, oil and phosphate-rich regions of Palmyra and Deir Ezzor in the east of the country will not be considered \u2018useless\u2019 by the Syrian regime as their revenues are significant.[9]<\/a> That the Syrian military fought to regain those regions before advancing south and towards Idlib is telling. In short, the geographical and economical notion of \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 only makes sense when including the resource-rich eastern parts of the country. But this makes practically all of Syria \u2018useful\u2019, rendering the notion analytically impractical.<\/p>\n

A more helpful way of applying the notion of \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 discards its geographical connotations, and views it in loyalist terms instead. Through population- and ceasefire deals the regime re-established social control over reconquered areas and made them \u2018useful\u2019. Inhabitants were given the option to remain, or to move to rebel-controlled areas such as Idlib. Those that remained know that they are under government surveillance. The climate of fear that has been created by mass disappearances, torture and executions has further battered them into submission. The resulting \u2018loyalty\u2019 will help prevent future uprisings. Further loyalist strategies for creating a \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 that the regime applies include considering those that fled military conscription as having lost a right to return,[10]<\/a> imprisoning returning refugees viewed as disloyal and rewarding loyalists with contracts to rebuild destroyed cities and giving them preferential housing access. Finally, some areas in Syria have been selectively depopulated of Sunnis, which strengthens the regime\u00b4s support base in strategic locations.[11]<\/a> In terms of loyalty these areas are now \u2018useful\u2019 to the Syrian regime, as the risk of a future uprising has been decreased.<\/p>\n

In summary, when thinking about the Syrian regime\u2019s war fighting strategy, two things are worth keeping in mind. First, the Syrian regime does not limit itself to a geographical notion of a \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 in the sense of the Aleppo-Homs-Damascus axis and the coastal regions. Instead, the resource-rich east is part and parcel of its reconquest. This means that Assad\u2019s repeated announcements to take back every inch of Syria need to be taken at face value. The regime\u2019s military preparations for the campaign on Idlib are in full swing and negotiations with Syria\u2019s Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Council have commenced to agree on a roadmap that would see regime cooperation in the provision of utilities and services. That the US presence in al-Tanf is a thorn in the Syrian\u2019s regime flesh is no secret. In the longer term, Syrian military advances on al-Tanf and the adjacent areas of the Syrian-Iraqi desert where remnants of ISIS pursue their activities can be expected.<\/p>\n

Second, the regime shores up loyalty by instilling a climate of fear in reconquered regions as well as in areas that never rose against it. In reconquered areas, the regime moreover engages in selectively permitting refugee and IDP return based on perceived loyalty. This re-population tactic is key to decrease the risk of future uprisings. International reconstruction policies and aid should be mindful of it.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Matthias Sulz<\/strong> is a junior research associate with the Conflict Research Unit of the Clingendael Institute. This long read is part of its Levant research program<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> Sayigh, Y. (2015): http:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/2015\/06\/25\/redrawing-lines-in-syria-s-shatterbelt-pub-60484<\/a>; Qutrib, H.I. (2017): https:\/\/www.kfcris.com\/en\/view\/post\/130<\/a>\u00a0 \/ Beauchamp, Z. (2016): https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2016\/3\/15\/11240318\/putin-syria-withdrawal-retro<\/a>\u00a0 \/ Thompson, J. (2018): http:\/\/meirss.org\/1262-2\/<\/a>\u00a0 \/ Haid, H. (2016): https:\/\/lb.boell.org\/en\/2016\/10\/28\/partitioning-syria-solution<\/a><\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> Ghaddar, H. (2016): https:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/view\/irans-useful-syria-is-practically-complete<\/a><\/p>\n

[3]<\/a> Cousseran, J.-C.; Daguzan, J.-F; Levallois, A.; Tannous, M.-N. (2016): p. 10. https:\/\/www.frstrategie.org\/web\/documents\/programmes\/observatoire-du-monde-arabo-musulman-et-du-sahel\/publications\/4.pdf<\/a>\u00a0 \/ Sanger, D.E.; Gladstone, R. (2016): https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/06\/08\/world\/middleeast\/defiant-assad-vows-to-retake-every-inch-of-syria-from-his-foes.html<\/a><\/p>\n

[4]<\/a> Alloush, I. (2017): http:\/\/tishreen.news.sy\/?p=96140#prettyPhoto<\/a><\/p>\n

[5]<\/a> Laurens, H. (2003): https:\/\/www.monde-diplomatique.fr\/2003\/04\/LAURENS\/10102<\/a><\/p>\n

[6]<\/a> Malbrunot, G. (2012): http:\/\/www.lefigaro.fr\/international\/2012\/06\/13\/01003-20120613ARTFIG00732-syrie-pourquoi-le-regime-durcit-la-repression.php<\/a><\/p>\n

[7]<\/a> Cf. Reno, W. (1999): Warlord Politics and African States. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner<\/p>\n

[8]<\/a> Cf. https:\/\/www.economist.com\/middle-east-and-africa\/2017\/07\/08\/moroccos-unrest-is-worsening<\/a><\/p>\n

[9]<\/a> Balanche, F. (2017): https:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/view\/assad-needs-useless-syria-too \/<\/a> Charap, S.; Martini, J. (2018): https:\/\/www.rand.org\/blog\/2018\/07\/time-to-make-a-deal-on-syria.html<\/a><\/p>\n

[10]<\/a> ???? ?????? ????? ?????? 26-7-2015: https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=pdBCQqWSKCA<\/a> Min. 44:05<\/p>\n

[11]<\/a> https:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/view\/irans-useful-syria-is-practically-complete<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Loyalty over geography: Re-interpreting the notion of \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 By Matthias Sulz * For Syria Comment: Sept. 6, 2018 As the offensive to reconquer Idlib starts, it is useful to recall that the notion of \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 as geographic reference to the population-rich axis of Aleppo-Homs-Damascus, as well as the coastal areas of Latakia and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[7,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","category-soc-cult"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nLoyalty over geography: Re-interpreting the notion of \u2018Useful Syria\u2019 - 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