{"id":25516,"date":"2018-07-16T22:44:40","date_gmt":"2018-07-17T02:44:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=25516"},"modified":"2018-07-17T20:29:43","modified_gmt":"2018-07-18T00:29:43","slug":"helsinki-meeting-does-little-to-clarify-americas-syria-policy-by-joshua-landis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/helsinki-meeting-does-little-to-clarify-americas-syria-policy-by-joshua-landis\/","title":{"rendered":"Helsinki Meeting Does Little to Clarify America’s Syria Policy – By Joshua Landis\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Helsinki Meeting Does Little to Clarify America’s Syria Policy<\/strong>
\nBy Joshua Landis
\nFor Syria Comment – July 16, 2018<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Washington analysts were fearful that President Trump would declare that the US was withdrawing from Syria at the Helsinki meeting with President Putin. President Trump made no important concessions to or agreements with President Putin on Syria. Although many suggested that some grand bargain might be in the works, little was said to clarify America’s policy in Syria.<\/p>\n

On Sunday before the meeting, National Security Adviser Bolton told ABC News that the U.S. was not going anywhere as long as Iran remained in Syria. \u201cI think the president has made it clear that we are there until the ISIS territorial caliphate is removed and as long as the Iranian menace continues throughout the Middle East,\u201d Bolton said.<\/span><\/p>\n

President Trump did say at the joint news conference after summit talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We also discussed at length the crisis in Syria. Co-operation between our countries has the potential to save hundreds of thousands of lives.” But in order to allay the fears of those interested in rolling back Iran, Trump insisted that the U.S. would \u201cnot allow Iran to benefit from our successful campaign against ISIS (Islamic State).\u201d This statement suggests that the U.S. will be maintaining its 2,000 special forces in North Syria for some time to come.<\/p>\n

Putin said, \u201cthe situation on the Golan Heights must be restored to what it was after the 1974 agreement, which set out the terms for the disengagement of forces between Israel and Syria.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump, for his part, noted that \u201cPresident Putin also is helping Israel.\u201d He said that both leaders had spoken with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, \u201cand they would like to do certain things with Syria having to do with the safety of Israel\u2026 We absolutely would like to work in order to help Israel, and Israel will be working with us. So both countries work jointly [for this purpose].\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump added that \u201ccreating safety for Israel is something both Putin and I would like to see very much.\u201d<\/p>\n

Netanyahu thanked the two leaders in a statement for their commitment to Israeli security. He praised Trump, saying \u201cThe friendship between Israel and the US has never been stronger.\u201d<\/p>\n

Netanyahu \u201cvery much appreciates the security coordination between Israel and Russia and the clear position expressed by President Putin regarding the need to uphold the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syria,\u201d the statement added.<\/p>\n

Most of the pronouncements about Syria from both Trump and Putin involved Israel. Both guaranteed its security and the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement that Henry Kissinger helped to negotiate. This was good and bad for Assad.<\/p>\n

It was bad news for Assad because it means that Russia will do nothing to stop Israel from bombing Syrian military emplacements if Iranian officers or advisers are present in them. Indeed, Israel drove home this point the day before the summit by bombing a Syrian military base on the outskirts of the city of Aleppo. Nine Iranians and even more Syrians were killed.\u00a0\u201cWe will not allow Iranian entrenchment within Syria,” Israel’s Foreign Minister said.<\/p>\n

It was good news for Assad because Israel and the United States have accepted that President Assad will stay in power and rule Syria. No effort has been made to stop the advance of the Syrian Army in the south of Syria along Jordan’s and Israel’s borders. To the contrary, both of Syria’s neighbors have expressed their readiness to accept the return of the Syrian Army; they are looking for a return to the status quo ante<\/em>. That is music to Assad’s ears.<\/p>\n

President Trump made few commitments on Syria, but it is clear that neither he nor Russia can push Iran from Syria so long as President Assad needs and wants Iran’s help in defeating the rebels. Assad has stated that he will\u00a0push both Turkish and American troops from Syria and take back every inch of Syrian soil. In this effort, Assad has explained that he will need Iran’s help. He insists that only he can determine whether or when Iran is to leave Syria.<\/p>\n

President Trump has repeated on several occasions that he wants US troops to leave Syria soon. His policy principals have walked back such statements.<\/p>\n

The problem with America’s position in North Syria is that it may quickly become a liability rather than a asset. Already fighting between Arabs and Kurds has erupted around Raqqa. Road side bombs have been planted, targeting US special forces. The inhabitants of Raqqa, the major Arab city in the north that was largely destroyed by US bombing against ISIS, are furious because the US is not rebuilding the city and has not committed adequate money for reconstruction. Ethnic and tribal divisions, the lack of jobs or money, and a serious drought in northern Syria are conspiring to undermine local stability and America’s leverage. President Trump and his foreign policy staff seem to agree on little about Syria; consequently little is getting done. Local inhabitants are looking to the US for answers. They want to know if the U.S. will guarantee their autonomy or even independence for the long haul. Should Kurdish authorities begin negotiating with Assad in preparation for a US withdrawal from North Syria? They want to know who is responsible for their future.<\/p>\n

The U.S. has set itself up for failure in northern Syria, not only because the region is likely to become ever harder to rule, but also because the U.S. has slipped into the role of champion of Kurdish nationalism in Syria. A mere 2.5 million Kurds live in northeast Syria; the region is the poorest and least developed part of the country; the U.S. is unlikely to get it to stand on its own two feet. What is more, Turkey and Syria are determined to prevent the emergence of a capable or independent Kurdish military. It will threaten the stability and authority of both countries. Trump has repeatedly said he wants to withdraw troops from Syria. He is right to look for a way out before an insurgency begins attacking U.S. troops. The U.S. must seek to secure a better deal for the Kurds within Syria. But to remain in the country for the “long haul” is to set America up for failure.<\/p>\n

Those who recommend a permanent U.S. force in Syria argue that it is an American interest to do so in order to roll back Iran, a state they describe as “malignant” and destabilizing for the region. They argue that America must deny the northeast and its natural resources to Damascus, not because they want to build a new state there, but in order to keep Syria weak and divided.\u00a0A poorer Syria is more likely to become a quagmire for Iran and Russia: a state, they inexplicably believe will serve U.S. interests, not to mention those of Syrians and their neighbors.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, even as Netanyahu, America’s closest ally in the Middle East, is assuring Russia that it does not seek to destabilize or topple the Assad regime, many in Washington are urging Washington to do just that. The United States and Western countries have gotten their policy in the Syria and the broader Middle East in a tangle.<\/p>\n

America needs to clarify its policy in Syria. It also needs to sort out its broader foreign policy objectives. The Helsinki meeting did little to help.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Helsinki Meeting Does Little to Clarify America’s Syria Policy By Joshua Landis For Syria Comment – July 16, 2018   Washington analysts were fearful that President Trump would declare that the US was withdrawing from Syria at the Helsinki meeting with President Putin. President Trump made no important concessions to or agreements with President Putin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[39,15,5,38,19],"tags":[616,617,458,221,450,135,158,583],"class_list":["post-25516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iran","category-israel","category-kurds","category-russia","category-us","tag-golan","tag-helsinki","tag-iran","tag-israel-2","tag-kurds","tag-raqqa","tag-russia-2","tag-us"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nHelsinki Meeting Does Little to Clarify America's Syria Policy - By Joshua Landis\u00a0 - Syria Comment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/helsinki-meeting-does-little-to-clarify-americas-syria-policy-by-joshua-landis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Helsinki Meeting Does Little to Clarify America's Syria Policy - By Joshua Landis\u00a0 - Syria Comment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Helsinki Meeting Does Little to Clarify America’s Syria Policy By Joshua Landis For Syria Comment – July 16, 2018   Washington analysts were fearful that President Trump would declare that the US was withdrawing from Syria at the Helsinki meeting with President Putin. 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