{"id":25320,"date":"2018-04-15T15:01:52","date_gmt":"2018-04-15T19:01:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=25320"},"modified":"2018-04-22T11:53:39","modified_gmt":"2018-04-22T15:53:39","slug":"creating-a-new-syria-property-dispossession-and-regime-survival-by-erwin-van-veen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/creating-a-new-syria-property-dispossession-and-regime-survival-by-erwin-van-veen\/","title":{"rendered":"Creating a New Syria: Property, Dispossession, and Regime Survival \u2014 by Erwin van Veen"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bulldozers remove barriers from a road in Harasta, east of Damascus (SANA via AP)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

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\"\"By Erwin van Veen<\/strong><\/p>\n

While all eyes were fixed on the US-led military response to the alleged chemical attack in East Ghouta, a little-noted event<\/a> occurred that could potentially have a much greater impact on Syria\u2019s future. About 10 days ago, President Assad’s regime passed Law no. 10<\/a>. The law foresees the creation of local administrative units in each district of regime-held territory that will be in charge of reconstruction efforts. All Syrians will be required to register their private properties with these units by providing proof of ownership, in person or through legal representatives. This must be done within roughly the next two months. The risk of noncompliance is that the Syrian state will take possession of the unregistered properties.<\/p>\n

With half the Syrian population displaced and many property transfers prior to 2011 having been done informally, this will be a mission impossible for many. Depending on the implementation and enforcement of the law, its most likely consequence is that the Syrian state will acquire a substantial amount of property in the near future\u2014land, buildings, and other immovable assets\u2014within the territories it currently controls. The real implication here is twofold. Most importantly, President Assad\u2019s regime will lay its hands on the assets it needs to finance the country’s reconstruction and reestablish its power base, preserving its long-term viability and independence. Moreover, it will dispossess hundreds of thousands of Syrians\u2014possibly millions\u2014who escaped the fighting or forced recruitment. Law no. 10 is a Faustian masterstroke\u2014both in its injustice and its ingenuity.<\/p>\n

The background is this: The World Bank has estimated<\/a> the tab for reconstructing Syria at upwards of USD $200 billion. The Syrian regime has been broke for some time, kept financially afloat by the Iranian Central Bank and assorted Lebanese<\/a> banks. Russia and Iran have neither the will nor the funds to finance Syria\u2019s reconstruction. The Gulf countries, United States, and European Union have made it clear<\/a> that likewise they will not carry Syria’s reconstruction without a “meaningful political transition”\u2014a reference to their desire for real political concessions in the future governance of Syria. Most who are familiar with the conflict expect such a transition to happen when hell freezes over.<\/p>\n

And yet, reconstructing Syria is essential to President Assad’s regime. This is not because it cares about restoring basic services like healthcare and housing to a decent level, or about the return of Syrian refugees. Figures like Syrian Major General Issam Zahreddin (since killed in battle) made it abundantly clear some time ago that returning refugees should not count on a warm welcome<\/a>.<\/p>\n

No. Rather, reconstruction is essential to the regime\u2019s survival because it must reward the networks of businessmen, military, and militia<\/a> leaders that helped it win the war. Reconstruction is also vital to the regime\u2019s autonomy because it must re-establish its powerbase and independence vis-\u00e0-vis its international backers who will expect the future loyalty of a faithful<\/a> Syrian ally when this conflict is over. Iran, for example, is already working to establish a long-term social, religious, and military<\/a> presence in the country.<\/p>\n

The imperatives of regime survival and autonomy mean that its reconstruction logic will echo its warfighting<\/a> logic: indiscriminate punishment of disloyalty to impose fear, selective co-optation, and deal-making with opposition groups where this offers a low-cost solution on regime terms and safeguards core regime interests. Initial urban reconstruction efforts of the regime in Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo, on the basis of Decree 66 (2012), already show<\/a> how the regime uses high-end property developments to generate funds and reward loyalists through forcible dispossession below market rates, as well as the use of regime-linked real estate and construction companies. The nationalization of property enabled by the closely-related Law no. 10 will take this approach to a new level.<\/p>\n

An additional consequence of Law no. 10 is that it will enable large-scale demographic engineering by reallocating appropriated property to new owners. This will not necessarily be sectarian in nature as the majority of both Syrians and regime-loyalists are Sunni. Rather, it will create large loyalist urban centers to underpin the regime\u2019s power base and limit the return of refugees, who are largely not perceived as supporters of President Assad.<\/p>\n

In addition to remaking urban centers as areas of repopulated loyalist concentration, the strategy will probably also involve undoing the existence of impoverished Sunni-belts around Syria’s main cities from which so many rebels were recruited. Insofar as these poorer suburbs are currently depopulated due to rebel recruitment, casualties, and flight, the regime is likely to use Law No. 10 to appropriate the land (in many such areas, property rights were not well established even before the war) and to then prevent their resettlement if and when refugees return. Any Sunni populations that have not fled but are still living in such suburbs at present will also be at risk of forced displacement and dispossession commensurate with the extent of their perceived disloyalty to the regime. It is clear that the regime has no problem initiating displacement on a large scale when it suits regime interests. Dealing with the suburban belts in this fashion will remove a source of resistance against the regime once and for all.<\/p>\n

Though these are the primary aspects of the strategy, Law no. 10 may very well additionally facilitate small-scale sectarian demographic engineering in a few strategic areas. The “four-town deal<\/a>” that swapped the population of two Sunni villages with two Shi\u2019i ones west of Damascus suggests that the Syrian-Lebanese border could be such an area. Incidentally, this particular deal was enabled by Qatar<\/a> as the price for release of their captured royal hunting party in Iraq.<\/p>\n

If the re-entrenchment of the Syrian regime was not already a sad enough finale, the emerging parallels with the plight of many Palestinians are uncanny and will constitute a further source of international concern. Not only is the relative size of the Syrian diaspora growing fast, but Law no. 10 may well have an effect similar to the Israeli Absentee Property Law<\/a>, which effectively nationalized Palestinian lands whose owners had fled after November 1947. The Israeli\/Palestinian problem still haunts the world\u2019s conscience 70 years later, though apparently not enough to end its neglect and resolve the problem.<\/p>\n

In 2017, Pearlman quotes Talia\u2014a fleeing TV correspondent in Aleppo\u2014regarding a sad but remarkably poignant moment: \u201cI waited for the driver outside. I kissed the walls on the street, because I knew that I was never coming back to them.\u201d<\/p>\n

Law no. 10 just brought this scenario one step closer to reality.<\/p>\n

___________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n

Erwin van Veen is a senior research fellow at Clingendael, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations. Follow on Twitter<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Addendum<\/strong>: “Displaced Syrians ensnared by new property law stand to lose everything<\/a>” by\u00a0Bahira al-Zarier<\/a>\u00a0&\u00a0Barrett Limoges<\/a>\u00a0for Syria Direct<\/em>, 17 April 2018.<\/p>\n

Law 10 gives property owners both in Syria and abroad just 30 days\u2014starting April 11\u2014to present their deeds to local council offices in the country. Otherwise, the state can liquidate their titles and seize their holdings. Once the registration window closes, \u201cthe remaining plots will be sold at auction,\u201d\u00a0reads<\/a>\u00a0Article 31 of the law.<\/p>\n

For citizens living abroad like Muhammad, family members as distant as a second cousin may present the documents in their stead.<\/p>\n

However, the millions of Syrians impacted by Law 10 include refugees and internally displaced people without family back home to assist with registration, as well as people whose deeds were lost or destroyed during the war.<\/p>\n

Perhaps most ominously for opposition supporters, all property owners wishing to register their lands must first obtain approval from state security officials<\/strong>, a lawyer in Damascus familiar with the law told Syria Direct. The lawyer spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of repercussions.<\/p>\n

\u201cWithout this approval, they will not be able to prove ownership of the property,\u201d said the lawyer. \u201cTherefore, it would be sold at auction or claimed by another person.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cHerein lies the seriousness of this decree,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

The need for security clearance could exclude large swathes of the Syrian population inside and outside the country with outstanding arrest warrants or known anti-government sympathies from registering their property.<\/p>\n

Muhammad is one of them. Although he still has the deed for his house and land in the south Homs village of al-Buwaidah a-Sharqiyah, he says the Syrian government has issued an outstanding warrant for his arrest.<\/p>\n

\u201cI am wanted by the regime on charges of incitement and attending demonstrations,\u201d says Muhammad. \u201cI understand that the regime means to take our property with a legal text, creating new laws to suit their interests.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

These two clarifications were tweeted by “Syria Law Journal”<\/p>\n

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A key misunderstanding of the new Urban Renewal Law 10\/2018 in Syria is that nobody has to prove their property ownership until a new zoned development is established by decree. And this requirement will only apply to persons whose ownership isn’t recorded in the Land Registry.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Syrian Law Journal (@syrian_law) April 19, 2018<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n