{"id":24074,"date":"2016-08-28T11:50:05","date_gmt":"2016-08-28T15:50:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=24074"},"modified":"2016-08-29T12:59:16","modified_gmt":"2016-08-29T16:59:16","slug":"turkeys-syria-intervention-joshua-landis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/turkeys-syria-intervention-joshua-landis\/","title":{"rendered":"“Turkey’s Syria Intervention,” by Joshua Landis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Turkey’s Syria Intervention\u00a0<\/strong>
\nBy Joshua Landis
\nAugust 28, 2016<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/p>\n

I answer questions asked me by a Turkish journalist.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Has Turkey established a No Fly Zone over the Azaz-Jarablus pocket?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Turkey has established a No Kurd Zone over the Jarablus pocket, not a NFZ. The US has control of air. When it leaves, Russia will resume control over the airspace, not Turkey. This is undoubtedly why Russia and the Syrian government signed onto the intervention and why US planes flew cover for Turkish and Arab troops and not Turkish planes.<\/p>\n

    2. Do you think the US will stay and provide air cover in that area (between Azaz-Jarablus) for a long time? Don’t you think this (Turkey attacking Kurds) will bring Turkey, Russia and Assad closer to each other?<\/em><\/p>\n

    I doubt the US Air Force will play an active role in providing air cover in the area. My hunch is that Turkey and Russia have an understanding about non-interference in a\u00a0specific region. But it does beg the question of what happens at the edges of that agreed upon area. All forces are likely to get draw into a quagmire of conflicting national agendas.<\/p>\n

    I doubt Turkey’s\u00a0attack on the\u00a0Kurds will bring Turkey, Russia and Assad closer to each other. Yes, Assad and Russia are pleased to see the Kurdish-American\u00a0juggernaut\u00a0stopped. Neither Syrian Arabs nor Turks want to see a contiguous Kurdish state stretching the length of Syria’s border with Turkey. All the same, Assad and Turkey remain bitter enemies. Turkey is promoting and arming\u00a0rebel groups that plan to destroy Assad and\u00a0conquer\u00a0all of Syria. Assad hopes to drive Turkish backed groups from the country. The two will come into conflict sooner than later. Their common enmity for the Kurds is a bad foundation for understanding.<\/p>\n

    Turkey will become drawn into the Syrian quagmire. Kurdish groups and some Arab militias will begin to attack the Turkish presence in Syria. This will suck Turkey into the fighting. The Syrian\u00a0gov\u00a0& Russia will promote these attacks. They have an interest in bleeding Turkey. They hope it will make Ankara more amenable to compromise. Turkey\u00a0has already been weakened by the burden of\u00a0refugees, renewed war with the Kurds, exacerbated internal secular-religious (Sunni-Shiite) discord, the failed coup attempt,\u00a0the collapse of its Zero Enemies policy, and a sinking economy. Sending Turkish forces into Syria is only likely to continue this downward spiral. Turkish direct participation in the Syria conflict is unlikely to lead to a solution. Rather it is likely to prolong Syria\u2019s agony. If we have learned anything from the Syrian conflict it is that the more external actors are willing to provide money, arms and firepower to Syrian proxies, the longer the war will gone on and the less likely one side is to win.<\/p>\n

    3.\u00a0If US insisted on Turkey’s operation, does this mean US didn’t expect Turkey to attack YPG? Now that Turkish forces are hitting them, do you expect US to withdraw its air support?\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

    The US made it clear to the YPG that it had to pull its forces back east of the Euphrates. This means that if they remain in the Menbij area or continue to try to build a continuous state between Afrin and Kobani, Turkey and its Arab militia allies\u00a0will attack\u00a0them. The main question today is whether the US will come to the YPG’s defense should Turkey or its proxies pursue it’s fighters east of the Euphrates.<\/p>\n

    4. Do assume Turkey will stay there for long?<\/em><\/p>\n

    I believe that Turkey will have to play a long-term role in northern Syria if it is to ensure the survival of its proxy militias and permanently keep out the YPG and Assad forces. They will not give up their ambitions to control the area. The Arab militias are a weak reed upon which to build a Turkish\u00a0policy in Syria.<\/p>\n

    5. My last question is: Don’t you think that Turkey, Russia and Assad have reached an agreement? Ankara may\u00a0have promised Putin that it will slowly withdraw its support for the Arab militias around Aleppo and will keep silent about Asad; whereas Putin may\u00a0have approved Turkey’s operation and promised to withdraw its jets from that area and its support for the Kurds. What do you think?<\/p>\n

    Yes, indeed, the three\u00a0governments seem to have struck an accord.\u00a0\u00a0The Russians did not object to Turkey’s intervention to stop the\u00a0YPG, suggesting an understanding. Of course, the Syrian government did object, but it had to.<\/p>\n

    This suggests that an agreement between the parties was arrived at. Russia and the Syrian government would insist that\u00a0Turkey’s intervention\u00a0be limited in scope. We still don’t know to what extent, or if\u00a0Turkey has agreed to cut off arms supplies to the rebels. But we can assume that the softening of Turkey’s position that Assad must step down\u00a0is part of this understanding. It is quite clear that the United States no longer expects the rebels to win in Syria. The\u00a0Turkish government also seems to have resigned itself to the survival of the Assad\u00a0government\u00a0in the medium term if not indefinitely.<\/p>\n

    Turkey’s acceptance of Assad’s survival are the terms being demanded by Damascus for cooperation in thwarting\u00a0YPG expansion. How far Erdogan will go in articulating such an acceptance or cutting off assistance to the rebels remains unclear.<\/p>\n

    Turkey’s direct entry into Syria does raise the likelihood that Syria will be partitioned between areas controlled by the government, Arab rebels and Kurds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Turkey’s Syria Intervention\u00a0 By Joshua Landis August 28, 2016 I answer questions asked me by a Turkish journalist. Has Turkey established a No Fly Zone over the Azaz-Jarablus pocket? Turkey has established a No Kurd Zone over the Jarablus pocket, not a NFZ. The US has control of air. When it leaves, Russia will resume […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[98,38,44,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24074","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aleppo","category-russia","category-turkey","category-us"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\n"Turkey's Syria Intervention," by Joshua Landis - Syria Comment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/turkeys-syria-intervention-joshua-landis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\""Turkey's Syria Intervention," by Joshua Landis - Syria Comment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Turkey’s Syria Intervention\u00a0 By Joshua Landis August 28, 2016 I answer questions asked me by a Turkish journalist. 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