{"id":208,"date":"2007-04-05T16:35:06","date_gmt":"2007-04-05T16:35:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=208"},"modified":"2007-04-05T16:36:45","modified_gmt":"2007-04-05T16:36:45","slug":"lebanons-coming-crisis-by-firas-maksad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/lebanons-coming-crisis-by-firas-maksad\/","title":{"rendered":"“Lebanon’s Coming Crisis” by Firas Maksad"},"content":{"rendered":"

This cartoon is from Jeha's Nail<\/a>:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Firas Maksad<\/strong> sees the crisis in Lebanon coming to a head in April-May as the government pushes for a chapter seven UN Security Council resolution mandating the Hariri tribunal prior to French President Jacque Chirac's departure from office in mid-May. Firas Maksad is an analyst with "The Eurasia Group." He wrote this on 4 April 2007. I copy only excerpts:<\/p>\n

\n

Saudi Arabia's marginalization of Syria came to an end at the Arab Summit with King Abdullah meeting with President Bashar al Assad twice in 48 hours. Apparently the more hawkish camp led by National Security Advisor Prince Bandar bin Sultan is losing ground to Foreign Minister Saud al Faisal, who is in favor of engaging Syria rather than confronting it in an effort to check Iran's rising influence. Yet while such development bodes well for the chances of a compromise in Beirut, leaks indicate that the discussions on Lebanon did not go beyond generalities and that the differences remain. This is particularly disconcerting given the limited timeframe available for compromise. Lebanon's governing anti-Syrian coalition is expected to push for a chapter seven UN Security Council resolution mandating the Hariri tribunal prior to French President Jacque Chirac's departure from office in mid-May. <\/p>\n

Further contributing to the sense of pessimism is information that Syria recently turned down a deal on the tribunal floated by Egypt. The deal reportedly involved limiting the responsibility for Hariri's assassination to former Head of Syrian General Intelligence Bahjat Suleiman in return for Syrian cooperation on Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories and Iraq. If true, this would indicate rising confidence in Damascus and a decision to play for time until Chirac's and then Bush's departure from office. Such a policy would not be unfounded …. Damascus will therefore probably prefer to maintain the defiant tone, preventing the tribunal's passage through the Lebanese parliament, painting its passage by the UN Security Council as an illegitimate foreign plot and eventually rejecting its finding.<\/p>\n

The tribunal's possible establishment through the Security Council however will mark a new phase in the Lebanese crisis and could debilitate all branches of government….. The Saudi-Syrian dialogue on Lebanon needs to achieve a substantial breakthrough prior to the end of April; otherwise a new set of negative dynamics will likely come into play. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Asharq Al-Awsat published the results of a Lebanese opinion poll<\/a> showing that although Aoun has lost support, he iremains the most popular Christian leader. Only half of Lebanon's Sunnis approve of the policies of the March 14 governing coalition. The writer suggests that Lebanon is too unstable to absorb the international tribunal and that the only thing that can save Lebanon is a Taif II and Madrid II. (Thanks Alex)<\/p>\n

?????: ???? ?? «????? ? 2» ?«???? ? 2» <\/p>\n

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??? ?????? ?? ?? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ??? ???? ???? «??? ????» ??? ??? ??? ?????? ?? ?? ?????????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? «??? ????» ?????? ??? ????? ???? ??????? ???????? ???? ???? ????????? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??????????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ??????? ????????? ?????? ?? ???????? ???????? ??????? ??? ?????? ????? ??? ?????. <\/p>\n

??????? ??????? ???? ????? ???? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???? ???? ??? ????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ???? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ?? ????? ???????. ?? ?????? ?????????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??? ???? «????» ?? ??????? ???????? ?????? «???????»! <\/p>\n

???? ?? ???? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ?? ???? ????? «??? ?? ??? ???? ????? ?2 ????? ?2». <\/p>\n

?«??? ???» ?? ????? ???? ???? «???????» ????????? ???? ?? ??? ?????. ???? ??????? ????? «??????? ?????????»? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?? ????? ??????? ????????? ?? ??? ????: ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? ??????. <\/p>\n

????? ?? ???? ???? ???? ???????: «???? ??????? ????????? ????? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ???? ?? ??????? ????????? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ???????? ???? ??? ????? ??? ???????? ???????? ?? ?????». <\/p>\n

??? ??????? ???? ?????????? ????? ????: ???? ???? ?????? ????? ???? 50% ???? ?? ??? ???????? ???? ???? ?? ?? ??? ???? ??? ???? ???? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ?????? (????? ????? ??????)? ????????? ???? ?? ???». <\/p>\n

???? ??? ??????? ???????? ?????? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ??? ????? ????? 80% ??? 90% ?? ????? «??? ????» ???? ???? ???? ????? ?? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ???? ?????? ??????? ????? ???? «???» ???????? ??? ??? ??? ???? ?? ??? ??? ???? ?? ?? ???? ?????? «??? ?? ???? ??? ????? ???? ?? ???? ??? ????» ??? ???? ????. <\/p>\n

??? ????? ?? ????? ?? ????? «???» ???? ???????? ??????? ??? ??????? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? «??? ????». <\/p>\n

???? ????????? ???????? ??? ???? ???? 42% ?? ?????? ??? ?? ????? ???? «??? ????» ????? ????? ?? ?? ???? ??????? ?????? ?15% ?? ????? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ? ?????????? (????? ?? ?????? ????) ?23% ?? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ???????? ?? ??????? ?11% ?? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ???? ??????? ?5% ?? ????? ???? ??? ????. <\/p>\n

??? ?? ?????????? ???? ??? ????? «??? ????» ???? ??? ??? ?? ????? ???? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ????? ?? ?? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????. ???????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ?????? ????? ??? «??? ????» ?????? ????. ?????? ??? ?? ????? ????? ?? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ?????? ??????????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ????? ????. <\/p>\n

???? ??? ???? «??? ????» ???? ??????? ??? ???? ???? «???? ?????? ?????? ? ??? ?????»? «?? ????? ???????? ???? ?????? «??? ????» ???? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??????? ??? ?????? ???????? ??????? ??? ??? ??? 2000 ??? ???????? ??????????? ??? ??? ?? ????? ???? «??? ????» ??? ???? ??????? ????????? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ??? ?????????? ???????? ???????».. <\/p>\n

????? ??????? ???? ????? ???? ?????? ????????? ??????? ?? ????? ??? ??? ????? ????: «????? ?? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??? ??? ?????? ??????? ???? ???????? ???????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???? ??? ????? ??? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ???? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ??? ?????? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ????».. <\/p>\n

??? ???? «??? ????» ??? ??????? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ??????? ???? ???????.. <\/p>\n

????? ?? ??? ????????? ??????????: «???? ?? ???? ????? ?? ???????? ??? ?? ??? ?? ??? ?????? ????? ??? ??? ???? ????? 200 ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ??????? ??? ?? ???? ???? ????? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ????». ????? ??? ??? ??? ???????: ??? ???? ??????? ??????? ?? ???? ??? «??? ????» ????? ??? ??? ???? ????? ????? ??????: «???? ?? ????? ? ????????»!»! <\/p>\n

?? ??????? ????????? ????????? ??? ???? ???? ?? ??? ???? «??? ????»? ?? ?? ?? ????? ????? ??? ????? ?? ?? ?????. ????? ??????? ????: «???? ???? ?? ???? ??? ?? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ?? ??? ??? ??? ???? ?????. <\/p>\n

?????? ??? ???? ?? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ????????? ???? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ???? ???? ?? ?? ???».. <\/p>\n

????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ???? ???? ???????. ??????? ???? «???? ???? ??????? ????????» ?????? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ???????? ????????? ????????? ?? ???? ????? ????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ??? ?? ???? ???????? ??? ????? ??????? ???? ????? ?????? ?? ?? ???? ?? ????? «???? ??????» ???????? ????? ????? ?? ?? ????? ?????.. <\/p>\n

???? ??? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ????? ?? ?????. ???? ??? ???? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ???? «??? ????» ?????? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ?? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ??????? ??? ??????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ???? ??? ?? ?? ????? ???????. ????? ?????? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ???.. <\/p>\n

????? ????: «??? ????? ??????? ??? ?????? ???? ????? ????? ???? ??????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ??«????? ??????»? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ???? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?? ??? ????? ??? ????????? ???????? ????? ????? ????? ???????? ??? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ????????». «?? ???? ???? ?? ????????? ??? ??????? ???? ?? ?? ????».<\/p>\n

??? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ??? ??? «??? ????» ????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ????? ?????? ????? ????. ?? ???? «??? ????» ????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?? ???? ??????? ??????????? ??? ???????. ??? ???? ????? ???? ?? ??? ???? ?????. ?? ?? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?? ???? ???? ???????? ???? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ?????? ????? ??????? ???? ????? ??????? ??????????? ?????? ????? ?????? ????? ?? ?? ????? ???????? ??? ??????? ??? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ??????? ????: «??? ?? ??? ?? ?????? «??? ????» ????? ???? ?? ????? ????? ????? ????????? ?????? ?????. ???????? ?????? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?? ????? ???? ???? ?????? ??? ???? «??? ????»? ??? ?????? ???????? ?? ?? ???? ????? ????????? ????? ????».<\/p>\n

. ???????? ?????? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?? ????? ???? ???? ?????? ??? ???? «??? ????»? ??? ?????? ???????? ?? ?? ???? ????? ????????? ????? ????». <\/p>\n

??? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ???? ???? «???????»? ????? ??? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ??? ??????? ?? ?????. ????? ???? ?????????? ?????? ????? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ???????? ????? ???????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ???? ????? ???? ???? ?? ???? ????? ???? «????? ??????». ?????? ?????? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ????????? ???? ????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ?? ?????? ????? ????? ???????? ????? ???? ?????? ???? ???????? ??????? ????? ???? ??????? ??? ?????: ?? ???????? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ??? ????????? ??? ??? ?? ????? ??? ???? ?????? ???????? ?? ??? ?????? ????????????? ?? ???? ????? ????? ?? ????????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??? ????? ?????? ???????????? ?? ??? ??????? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ??????? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ???? ?????? ????? ?????? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ??? ??? ???? ??? ??? ??????? ??????? ??? ?????.<\/p>\n

????????? ??? ??? ?? ????? ??? ???? ?????? ???????? ?? ??? ?????? ????????????? ?? ???? ????? ????? ?? ????????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??? ????? ?????? ???????????? ?? ??? ??????? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ??????? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ???? ?????? ????? ?????? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ??? ??? ???? ??? ??? ??????? ??????? ??? ?????. <\/p>\n

?? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ?? ??????<\/p>\n

??????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ???? ?????? ??? ?? ?????? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ?? ???? ?????????? ?? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ????????? ??? ????? ???????? ???????? ?????? ?? ?????<\/p>\n

A Path to Common Ground<\/a> By: James A. Baker III | The Washington Post
I wholeheartedly agree with a point Lee Hamilton made in his March 25 op-ed, " A Partnership on Iraq," regarding the need for a unity of effort in Iraq. He is correct that the United States will probably falter unless President Bush and Congress reach a bipartisan consensus in the coming months. <\/p>\n

Israel’s Protests Are Said to Stall Gulf Arms Sale <\/a>
By: David S. Cloud and Helene Cooper
The New York Times<\/p>\n

A major arms-sale package that the Bush administration is planning to offer Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf allies to deter Iran has been delayed because of objections from Israel, which says that the advanced weaponry would erode its military advantage over its regional rivals, according to senior United States officials. <\/p>\n

Pakistan's Talibanization
<\/strong>Tuesday, April 3, 2007
ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE, UPI Editor at Large  <\/p>\n

Robert Louis Stevenson's 1886 classic, "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde," was a vivid portrayal of a split personality. Paired, the two names have come to signify bipolar behavior. As president of Pakistan, to rule a Muslim country of 160 million that is 65 percent illiterate and overwhelmingly anti-American, firmly held contradictory views are the key to survival. For President Pervez Musharraf, America is a force for good. But most Pakistanis now see the Bush administration as evil. As much as Musharraf wanted to help President George W. Bush wipe out the Taliban after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, he now concludes these young Muslim fanatics are the lesser of two evils next to the drug-fueled corruption of Afghan President Hamid Karzai's inept "democratic" government. After more than five years in office, and with billions in foreign assistance, Karzai is still struggling with 40 percent unemployment. The U.S. intelligence community recently acquired a Pakistani insider's look at what makes Musharraf tick these days. As much as he wanted U.S. victory in Iraq, he has long since concluded the United States has lost the hand to Iran. To recoup America's loss before he leaves the White House in January 2009, Musharraf believes Bush will strike Iran's nuclear facilities from air and sea. And this, in turn, will unite Sunnis and Shiites in Pakistan against all things American — and provoke a gigantic upheaval throughout the Middle East. With the whole world turning against Israel and the United States, he could not afford to continue his policy of "constructive ambiguity" toward the Bush administration. <\/p>\n

Lawrence Wright on al-Qaida
And the winner in Iraq is: the Al-Qaeda jihadists<\/a><\/p>\n

There is a bitter irony in the fact that the Bush administration resurrected its defeated foe by carrying the war to Iraq. This is a state that bin Laden had never placed on his list of profitable regions in which to wage jihad, simply because he knew it was a Shiite-majority country. His rival and eventual protege, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi<\/a>, took that decision out of bin Laden's hands and forced a shift in Al-Qaeda's strategy. <\/p>\n

The lessons I draw from this are that Al-Qaeda is stronger now than at any time since 9\/11; that the war in Iraq<\/a> has given Al-Qaeda a tremendous propaganda victory; that the movement is both vast and nimble; that it will survive the deaths of any particular individuals; and that the prospects for long-term conflict with the US and Europe are almost certain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This cartoon is from Jeha's Nail: Firas Maksad sees the crisis in Lebanon coming to a head in April-May as the government pushes for a chapter seven UN Security Council resolution mandating the Hariri tribunal prior to French President Jacque Chirac's departure from office in mid-May. Firas Maksad is an analyst with "The Eurasia Group." 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