{"id":17389,"date":"2013-01-09T11:03:50","date_gmt":"2013-01-09T16:03:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=17389"},"modified":"2013-01-09T12:29:17","modified_gmt":"2013-01-09T17:29:17","slug":"forming-a-syrian-opposition-government-the-time-is-now-by-fred-hof-ziadeh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/forming-a-syrian-opposition-government-the-time-is-now-by-fred-hof-ziadeh\/","title":{"rendered":"“Forming a Syrian Opposition Government: The Time is Now” by Fred Hof; Ziadeh"},"content":{"rendered":"

Forming a Syrian Opposition Government: The Time is Now<\/a>
\nFrederic C. Hof<\/a>| January 08, 2013 – At<\/p>\n

The Syrian Opposition Council (SOC) formed in November 2012 faces no shortage of dire challenges as it tries to organize itself and give desperately needed political leadership to a heterogeneous hodgepodge of armed and unarmed opponents of the dying yet lethally venomous regime of Bashar al-Assad.\u00a0 How to uphold the primacy of citizenship in an increasingly sectarian struggle?\u00a0 How to maintain credibility with those who are fighting and dying?\u00a0 How to reach out to minorities and other fence sitters inside Syria?\u00a0 How to prepare for the practicalities of transition and governance?\u00a0 How to shape and influence international support for Syria\u2019s revolution rather than being shaped and influenced by outsiders?\u00a0 How to eclipse internal rivalries and policy differences with selflessness and a unifying sense of mission encompassing a broadly acceptable vision of what the new Syria will be and how it will function?<\/p>\n

In a just world, Syrians emerging from an induced political coma of some 50 years would not be faced with such daunting tasks.\u00a0 Starting with the 1958-1961 Egyptian-run United Arab Republic, Syrians have become accustomed to the heavy hand of intelligence services on political discourse.\u00a0 Over the years, frank political discussions even within families became guarded and circumscribed, a condition not significantly altered by the \u201cDamascus Spring\u201d experiment over a decade ago.\u00a0 Now it is all out there for discussion and decision.\u00a0 Syrians who, not long ago, could only choose among silence, torture, and departure are now being asked to practice teamwork, transparency, and compromise.\u00a0 There is nothing fair or just about this situation.<\/p>\n

Yet fair or not, ready or not, Syria requires a government.\u00a0 For more than 40 years the Syrian Arab Republic Government (SARG) was the transmission belt for the desires of a narrow, family-based clique.\u00a0 That government is now neutered\u2014the geographical scope of its assigned writ having shrunken dramatically over the past 21 months.\u00a0 Yet a functioning bureaucracy will be central to any transition plan due to the need for continuity of government.\u00a0 Ministries, departments, and agencies\u2014including the security services\u2014employ people and provide services, albeit often ineffectively and corruptly.\u00a0 The preservation of these organs, as imperfect as they are, can facilitate the rapid dispersal of international assistance post-Assad and reassure millions of Syrians who fear the chaos of revolutionary rule.\u00a0 Reform will come in time.\u00a0 It is important to distinguish government and its associated bureaucracy from the ruling clique, which has become a militia, willing and even eager to risk destroying Syria to try to save itself.<\/p>\n

As I have written previously<\/a> the old expression, you can\u2019t beat something with nothing<\/em>, applies in spades to Syria.\u00a0 No one\u2014not even Bashar al-Assad himself\u2014doubts the corruption, incompetence, and brutality of what remains of the old system.\u00a0 Yet millions of Syrians grudgingly adhere to \u201cthe Doctor.\u201d They do so partly because they fear his jailers and torturers, but largely because they know not what comes next.\u00a0 This is the obstacle that a provisional government formed by the SOC can address and overcome<\/p>\n

A provisional government led by the SOC would be a key step on the way to a national unity transition government that could and should include serving, non-criminal officials of the current and previous SARGs.\u00a0 Provided it consists of respectable individuals whose revolutionary credentials neither alienate nor frighten the cowed and undecided, a provisional government would in large measure answer the \u201cwhat\u2019s next?\u201d question that immobilizes millions of Syrians.\u00a0 Provided it can establish itself in liberated parts of Syria and facilitate effective local governance while expediting external humanitarian assistance and the restoration of essential services and infrastructure, it can reflect credibility.\u00a0 Indeed, to the extent that such a government would attract recognition from abroad as the<\/em> government of Syria it could be the legitimate recipient of security assistance.\u00a0 If and when the time comes to negotiate with the SARG on the formation of a transitional national unity government to take full executive powers from the regime, the provisional government would be the SARG\u2019s sole legitimate interlocutor.<\/p>\n

Would the formation of a provisional government be a panacea?\u00a0 No.\u00a0 One has to assume that the regime will fight hard to hold onto Damascus and that Iran and Hezbollah will assist in that effort.\u00a0 Would the formation of such a government be easy?\u00a0 On the contrary\u2014battles for privilege and position could be discouraging and even debilitating.\u00a0 Yet here a hard question must be posed: if the very process of establishing a clear alternative to the regime fatally wounds the unity of the Syrian Opposition Council or splinters the opposition more generally, then what is the opposition really?\u00a0 And, as a practical matter, if there are to be fights over who gets to be minister of finance, defense and so forth, is it not better to have these fights now, before the regime vaporizes and before someone actually has to try to govern Syria?<\/p>\n

No doubt the endeavor to form a provisional government would be fraught with difficulties and could indeed end badly.\u00a0 Yet as the Assad poison pill of sectarianism slowly paralyzes and kills the idea and the reality of a united Syria, time is of the essence.\u00a0 The United States correctly opposed calls for a provisional government in mid-2012; the Syrian National Council would have been a disastrously weak and narrow foundation for such an effort.\u00a0 Reservations on the part of the US administration are understandable even now.\u00a0 Yet Syria is dying, and Syria\u2019s death would have dire implications not only for its 23 million citizens but for the entire region.<\/p>\n

The way forward will be replete with risks.\u00a0 Yet the riskiest of approaches in Syria\u2019s hour of peril could be for the United States and others to hold the Syrian Opposition Council at arms-length and ask it to jump through bureaucratic hoops rather than asking it to offer the Syrian people a visible, credible alternative to the Assad regime.\u00a0 Time is the enemy. You can\u2019t beat something with nothing.\u00a0 If there is to be something, the time to create that something is now.<\/p>\n

Frederic C. Hof<\/em><\/a>\u00a0is a senior fellow of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council and the former Special Advisor for Transition in Syria at the US Department of State.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“Saving Syria from Assad<\/a>” (Julian Lindley-French, Atlantic Council)<\/p>\n

“an enduring Syrian peace will also only be possible if the conflict is detached from a wider regional Realpolitik. Iran has been supporting the regime with both expertise and munitions, with substantial evidence of direct involvement by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, whilst Russia and China have blocked any direct outside intervention. Indeed, the regional strategic ambitions of Iran and its proxy Hezbollah-led conflict with Israel have critically exacerbated the war. Equally, whilst an arms embargo has been formally imposed evidence abounds that it exists in name only. The Coalition has been receiving directly or indirectly both small arms and man-held anti-aircraft missiles from the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia to counter the regime’s use of air power.<\/p>\n

What would a ‘credible’ international presence on the ground look like and under what mandate? Arab League, UN, NATO, EU or a beefed up Contact Group? Experience of political transition in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya (hardly encouraging) suggests that early political reconciliation would be critical but only possible if reprisal killings are prevented and the humanitarian suffering of all alleviated. A new seat of government in Damascus would also need to be rapidly established and protected, committed to a political timetable for transition underpinned by the early disarmament and rehabilitation of combatants. The armed forces would need to be re-oriented and essential services and the judicial system preserved to provide stability. Critically, senior members of the Assad regime charged under law would need to get a fair trial and justice seen to work. National elections woven into a new constitution would also be vital with extreme elements in the opposition forced to face a choice; reconciliation or exclusion. Would Russia and China agree? Maybe this is the moment for a Tony Blair-type Sextet for Syria – America, Arab League, China, EU and Russia?”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“What if Assad Wins<\/a>?” (Seth Mandel, Commentary Magazine)<\/p>\n

“All throughout the Syrian civil war, analysts and human rights groups were at pains to point out the rising death toll and falling share of media and public attention. But underlying the legitimate frustration was a perhaps forced belief-straining under the weight of reality-in the conventional wisdom: the house of Assad will fall; the victims’ deaths will not be in vain.<\/p>\n

But the standard rule of conventional wisdom-that it may be the former but is rarely the latter-applies here as well. As Emile Hokayem writes<\/a> in the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s recent defiant speech:<\/p>\n

More importantly, Western states should get off the sidelines. The illusion of a negotiated settlement is a consequence of Western indecision, not the cause for it. The United States in particular has squandered precious time and opportunities: The risks of greater involvement in Syria are certainly great, but the conflict has already overtaken the Iraq war in terms of regional and strategic impact, and Washington is at best marginal to its dynamics. U.S. Sen. John McCain only slightly exaggerated when he said last month: “In Syria, everything we said would happen if we didn’t intervene is happening because we didn’t intervene.”\u00a0Judging by Assad’s speech, Syria’s civil war is indeed about to become even more tragic as the world stands idly by.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That “illusion” is a Western creation, and more importantly it is not widely-and certainly not universally-shared. The “rebels” do not emit an air of encroaching victory, and to speak of patience and inevitability seems nothing less than vulgar. Can anyone explain why time is on the side of the rebels? It certainly doesn’t feel that way anymore, does it?”<\/p>\n

The Latest from FP<\/a><\/div>\n