{"id":17175,"date":"2012-12-20T15:27:12","date_gmt":"2012-12-20T20:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=17175"},"modified":"2012-12-20T16:05:01","modified_gmt":"2012-12-20T21:05:01","slug":"is-an-alawite-state-in-syrias-futurececily-hilleary-interviews-joshua-landis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/is-an-alawite-state-in-syrias-futurececily-hilleary-interviews-joshua-landis\/","title":{"rendered":"“Is an Alawite State in Syria\u2019s Future?,”Cecily Hilleary interviews Joshua Landis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Is an Alawite State in Syria\u2019s Future?<\/a>
\nDecember 20, 2012 By Cecily Hilleary @VOAHilleary<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

It is an idea that was first introduced more than a year ago: If President Bashar al-Assad were to fall or be remove himself from power, would Alawites, for decades a ruling minority in Syria, retreat to their traditional western mountain enclaves and form a breakaway state?\u00a0 As rebels gain more ground in Syria, so too does the idea of an Alawite homeland as an antidote against sectarian violence that could become, in the words of one former U.S. diplomat, \u201cthe world\u2019s next genocide<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0 Senior reporter Cecily Hilleary spoke about the prospects of an Alawite retreat from Syria\u2019s capital, Damascus, with Joshua Landis<\/a>, director of the Center for Middle East Studies and associate professor at the University of Oklahoma.<\/p>\n

\n

Landis<\/strong>:\u00a0 Well, Assad hasn\u2019t come to the conclusion that he has lost Damascus, and he\u2019s not anywhere near there.\u00a0 We\u2019ve just heard Farouk al-Sharaa, his vice president, say that neither side could win \u2013 neither the rebels nor the government.\u00a0 There would have to be a political solution; there could not be a military solution.<\/p>\n

So,I think Bashar al-Assad is still thinking in terms of a draw here.\u00a0\u00a0 I don\u2019t think he\u2019ll be able to hold Damascus forever.\u00a0 I think it\u2019s going to be a lot longer and a more bitter struggle than most people predict.\u00a0 Many have been saying that by this summer, in June, he\u2019ll be out and finished.\u00a0 I suspect it\u2019s going to take longer than that.<\/p>\n

Hilleary<\/strong>:\u00a0 Well, he\u2019s shown remarkable tenacity.<\/p>\n

Landis:<\/strong>\u00a0 He did, and in many ways, if you think about it, just cold-bloodedly.\u00a0 He cannot afford to allow the rebels to take Damascus.\u00a0 Damascus is the \u201cgoose that lays the golden egg.\u201d\u00a0 It is<\/em> Syria.\u00a0 And for the rebels to take it whole would be to empower them a great deal, and it would put Assad\u2019s \u201crump\u201d military and the Alawite region along the coast at a great disadvantage.<\/p>\n

So it\u2019s likely that he will hang on to Damascus and that the city will be destroyed, as Aleppo has been destroyed, before it is relinquished.<\/p>\n

Hilleary:<\/strong>\u00a0 That time may well come, and as we\u2019ve seen in the case of Libya, Muammar Gadhafi, and in Iraq, Saddam Hussein, they both ran off to their ancestral, tribal homelands \u2013 why not Assad?<\/p>\n

Landis<\/strong>:\u00a0 Well, I think he will.\u00a0 I think he will be forced into the coastal mountains.\u00a0 Now, the question is whether he can set up a separate state there.\u00a0 I don\u2019t believe that the world will recognize a separate Alawite state on the coast of Syria.\u00a0 That doesn\u2019t mean that he\u2019ll be defeated, in the same way that Hezbollah resides in southern Lebanon, where Shi\u2019ite Lebanese are the majority, and that forms a social base and a protection for Hezbollah.\u00a0 And it\u2019s quite likely that the Alawites and the Syrian Army, which has now largely been turned into an Alawite militia, will be forced back into the coastal mountains.<\/p>\n

Whether they can be defeated there as a military power or not depends on two things, really:\u00a0 Whether Iran is willing to continue to invest and support them militarily by sending weapons and money, and whether the Sunni Arabs overcome their deep factionalism and unify.\u00a0 If they do unify \u2013 they represent 70 percent of the population \u2013 they will defeat the Alawites.\u00a0 If they remain divided and they fight amongst themselves over Damascus and other ideological reasons, spoils, then it\u2019s quite likely that the Alawites may survive the military power along the coast.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Russia and Iran continue to support the Alawites along the coast, and the Arabs remain very divided and perhaps settle into civil war, well then they could pull it off, the same way the Kurds pulled it off in Iraq.\u201d \u2013 Joshua Landis<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Hilleary<\/strong>:\u00a0 How likely is it that that kind of infighting will take place among the Sunnis and allow for the Alawites to survive?<\/p>\n

Landis<\/strong>:\u00a0 I think it is quite likely.\u00a0 We see vast differences in ideology, country versus city, class, and also north and south, Aleppo versus Damascus, have traditionally separated Syrians, and these questions about Islam versus secularism, the role of minorities, and so forth, were never decided after independence.\u00a0 Syria went straight from French rule to, really, dictatorship.\u00a0 And they are all being debated today.<\/p>\n

Hilleary<\/strong>:\u00a0 Is there any truth to reports that Assad has been quietly preparing for some kind of an enclave along the Mediterranean?<\/p>\n

Landis<\/strong>:\u00a0 I have read these reports that that is what he\u2019s been doing, which were largely aired on [… a] website that is rarely factual.\u00a0 I don\u2019t doubt that Alawites from every walk of life are preparing for a mountain defense.\u00a0 I know my own family \u2013 my wife\u2019s family, which is Alawite \u2013 has been adding rooms onto their mountain house, which is a summer house, because they don\u2019t want to hang out in Latakia, which they believe will become a battleground because it\u2019s half Sunni and half Alawite and Christian.\u00a0 So these things make people fearful, and they are taking precautions, and I don\u2019t doubt that Bashar al-Assad is also doing similar things.<\/p>\n

Hilleary<\/strong>:\u00a0 Well, there is a legitimate basis for fear.<\/p>\n

Landis<\/strong>:\u00a0 Of course there is a legitimate basis for fear, because this has turned into a sectarian war.\u00a0 The government has so mistreated the Syrian people and used so much force, killing so many and making others homeless that revenge is going to be \u2013 there\u2019s going to be revenge.<\/p>\n

Hilleary<\/strong>: What about Russia?\u00a0 Has it expressed any interest in support for a separate Alawite region?\u00a0 I mean, if you look at it geographically, Iran and Russia could certainly access them from the Mediterranean and support them for a while.\u00a0 Could they pull it off?<\/p>\n

Landis<\/strong>:\u00a0 Absolutely.\u00a0 But it all depends on continuing support.\u00a0 If Russia and Iran continue to support the Alawites along the coast, and the Arabs remain very divided and perhaps settle into civil war, well then they could pull it off, the same way the Kurds pulled it off in Iraq.\u00a0 Unlike the Kurds, the Alawites would not have oil, which puts them at a grave disadvantage. Also, the Syrian Arabs are not going to let the Alawites take the coast if they can possibly avoid it. The coast is prime real-estate and Latakia is very vulnerable from the north. It is likely to become a battle ground as the war advances.<\/p>\n

Hilleary<\/strong>:\u00a0 Well, the survival of an Alawite enclave is another question\u2014<\/p>\n

Landis<\/strong>:\u00a0 It will only happen over the dead bodies of the Sunni Arabs.\u00a0 \u00a0Obviously, it\u2019s not something that any Syrian Sunni Arab is going to want.\u00a0 It\u2019s going to have to be taken from them.\u00a0 And whether the Alawites, in the long run, can manage, that is questionable.\u00a0 But so much of that depends on whether Sunni Arabs can unify.\u00a0 If they can, they will overpower the Alawites, who just don\u2019t have the numbers.<\/p>\n

\u201c[Syria’s militias] span the ideological spectrum from al-Qaida all the way to much more secular outfits that want democracy and are looking toward the West.\u2019 \u2013 Joshua Landis<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Hilleary<\/strong>:\u00a0 Well, how is it looking for Sunni unity at this point?<\/p>\n

Landis:<\/strong>\u00a0 It\u2019s looking bad.<\/p>\n

Hilleary:<\/strong>\u00a0 I\u2019ve almost lost track of the number of different opposition groups blending, re-blending, re-naming themselves\u2014<\/p>\n

Landis:<\/strong>\u00a0 There are hundreds of militias.\u00a0 And there has been a Darwinian process taking place, where a few of the most powerful militias are sucking up a lot of the smaller ones.\u00a0 But there are still dozens of very powerful militias, and they span the ideological spectrum from al-Qaida all the way to much more secular outfits that want democracy and are looking toward the West.<\/p>\n

Hilleary:<\/strong>\u00a0 What do you see happening?<\/p>\n

Landis:<\/strong>\u00a0 I see a long, long battle along the same lines we\u2019ve seen, and unfortunately, both sides are radicalizing, and the radicals are taking over \u2013 not only among the Sunni Arabs but also within the Alawite community, and that means bad things because it\u2019s going to destroy \u2013 it is<\/em> destroying Syria.\u00a0 And we\u2019ve seen the north is so devastated, and I think that same devastation is going to be visited on the south in Damascus.\u00a0 And we\u2019re going to have rubble.\u00a0 And unfortunately, unlike Iraq where there was an occupying power, which had, of course, its bad elements, but also it allowed the Maliki government to unify the Arabs because the Americans undermined all the competitor militias and built up a central Iraqi state before they left. That\u2019s not going to happen in Syria.\u00a0 The various militias are going to fight it out.\u00a0 And, secondly, there\u2019s no oil, or very little oil.\u00a0 So the ability to rebuild is not, there\u2019s just very little ability to rebuild, so it\u2019s going to take a long time, and there are going to be tons of refugees, and there\u2019s going to be lots of hunger and privation.<\/p>\n

…. [end]<\/p>\n

Also see Could an Alawite State in Syria Prevent Post-Assad Reprisals?<\/a> – two Arab analysts argue that Alawites will ride themselves of the Assads for Syrian-Arab unity. They are:<\/p>\n

Faisal al-Yafai, an award-winning journalist and essayist and chief columnist<\/a> at the United Arab Emirate\u2019s newspaper, The National,<\/em>
\nand Jordanian political analyst, blogger and commentator Amer Sabaileh<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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