{"id":16820,"date":"2012-11-28T20:22:17","date_gmt":"2012-11-29T01:22:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=16820"},"modified":"2012-11-29T22:54:30","modified_gmt":"2012-11-30T03:54:30","slug":"opposition-claims-4-jets-shot-down-today-the-alawite-existential-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/opposition-claims-4-jets-shot-down-today-the-alawite-existential-dilemma\/","title":{"rendered":"Opposition Claims 4 Jets Shot down Today – The Alawite Existential Dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"

Opposition claims a total of 4 jets and a helicopter shot down today<\/a><\/p>\n

Comment by Syrialover<\/strong> November 28th, 2012, 6:29 am<\/a> said<\/span>:<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Joshua, you are buying into nonesense giving headlines to those claiming they\u2019ll turn Syria into an Islamist state.<\/p>\n

They might be helping to kick Assad hard, but they have also gotten in the way of the rebellion by providing an unhelpful distraction and excuse for support to be withheld.<\/p>\n

The bottom line is they are arrogantly attempting a free ride on the backs of the majority of Syrians who have sacrificed and suffered for other ideals in this revolution.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t believe it will achieve traction other than nuisance value once the dust settles.<\/p>\n

Political Islam is a quick-and-dirty, ignorant, and above all, lazy route to claiming power. That\u2019s what\u2019s wrong with the MB.<\/p>\n

Some claim it may have to run its course. Why? It would be another pointless disaster that wastes time and resources and stops the clock.<\/p>\n

The economy, investment, employment, education, infrastructure development, modern legal and bureaucratic systems, foreign relations, trade, you name it would sit in the trash bin while self-appointed amateurs fool around with the lives of Syrians.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Hanzala<\/strong> said<\/span>: November 28th, 2012, 6:52 am<\/a><\/p>\n

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I think the chances of Syria becoming an Islamic state after Assad are very high.. Dawla Islamiyya fil Sham.<\/p>\n

Even FSA groups that started out as relatively moderate have started to take a strong Islamic leaning.
\nThe FSA have made it this far without Western backing, and I believe they can go even further.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

davidfrum<\/strong> ?@<\/s>davidfrum<\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

Do we have grounds for confidence that the Syrian rebels will represent an improvement over the regime? In ME, worse is always possible.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Mike Doran<\/strong> ?@<\/s>Doranimated<\/strong>\u00a0 <\/a>.@<\/s>tcwittes<\/strong><\/a> @<\/s>davidfrum<\/strong><\/a> If it only deals a strategic blow to Iran and Hezbollah it’s a huge win, sez I.<\/p>\n

Syria Debate between Radwan Ziadeh, Ayssar Midani, Joshua landis\u00a0<\/s>Claude Guibal,\u00a0<\/s>Ole Solvang<\/a> is online – France 24 TV<\/p>\n

Foreign Policy<\/a><\/p>\n

According to Syrian state media, twin car bombs planted in Jaramana, a suburb just outside of Damascus, killed<\/a> at least 34 people. Many Druze and Christian minorities live in that neighborhood. Meanwhile, witnesses claim that insurgents downed a government aircraft that was bombing the town of Daret Azzeh, west of Aleppo and near the Turkish border, although it’s still unclear exactly how they did so. “We watched a Syrian plane being shot down as it was flying low to drop bombs,” said Ugur Cuneydioglu. This comes just a day after the opposition recorded another major tactical success. On Tuesday, the opposition shot down<\/a> a military helicopter outside Aleppo with surface-to-air missiles. As of now, it’s unclear if these gains are long-term and thus able to present a challenge to Assad’s air-power. In another tactical gain, members of the opposition have overtaken<\/a> two military bases, both of which were used by the Syrian air force. The opposition has gained control of about six bases in just a week. Valerie Amos, the United Nation’s humanitarian chief, accused Syria of bombing<\/a> refugees near the Jordanian border who are trying to flee the country.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

En Syrie, la communaut\u00e9 alaouite, base du r\u00e9gime, cherche une porte de sortie<\/a>
\n27 novembre 2012 | Par Caroline Donati in Medipart<\/p>\n

La capitale Damas bunk\u00e9ris\u00e9e, Qardaha, le village natal des Assad en col\u00e8re, la communaut\u00e9 alaouite divis\u00e9e\u2026 La r\u00e9sistance arm\u00e9e parvient-elle \u00e0 percer les lignes de d\u00e9fense du r\u00e9gime des Assad\u00a0? Plusieurs \u00e9v\u00e9nements r\u00e9cents le laissent penser. Il y a d’abord des t\u00e9moignages recueillis \u00e0 Damas. Selon plusieurs t\u00e9moins, la capitale n\u2019est plus seulement quadrill\u00e9e par des barrages. Des murs de b\u00e9ton sont d\u00e9sormais \u00e9rig\u00e9s pour prot\u00e9ger les principaux centres de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 du r\u00e9gime. Le pouvoir se bunk\u00e9rise et Damas est compar\u00e9e \u00e0 Bagdad et \u00e0 sa zone verte, cette enclave ultra-s\u00e9curis\u00e9e o\u00f9 sont regroup\u00e9s les centres de pouvoir.<\/p>\n

Depuis le mois d\u2019octobre, les quartiers g\u00e9n\u00e9raux de l’appareil de r\u00e9pression sont vis\u00e9s par des attaques spectaculaires revendiqu\u00e9es par des brigades de l\u2019Arm\u00e9e syrienne libre (ASL). D\u00e9but novembre, \u00e0 Kfar Souss\u00e9, o\u00f9 r\u00e9sident de hauts dignitaires du r\u00e9gime, les bureaux du premier ministre et des services ont essuy\u00e9 des tirs qui ont m\u00eame atteint le palais pr\u00e9sidentiel. Puis, deux quartiers alaouites de Damas, habit\u00e9s par des recrues miliciennes, respectivement Mezzeh 86 et Hay al-Wouroud, ont \u00e9t\u00e9 secou\u00e9s par des explosions<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Le r\u00e9gime a \u00e9galement perdu le 26 novembre le contr\u00f4le de Marj al-Sultan, le plus important a\u00e9roport militaire de la capitale, \u00e0 vingt kilom\u00e8tres du palais pr\u00e9sidentiel, apr\u00e8s avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 contraint d’abandonner d\u2019autres sites strat\u00e9giques \u00e0 l\u2019est de Damas.<\/p>\n

Les combattants de l\u2019ASL avancent sur d’autres territoires jusqu’alors solidement tenus par le pouvoir\u00a0: la plaine et la montagne c\u00f4ti\u00e8re alaouite, d\u2019o\u00f9 sont originaires les dirigeants. Sur le point de contr\u00f4ler la zone nord, ils sont d\u00e9sormais aux portes du \u00ab\u00a0r\u00e9duit alaouite\u00a0\u00bb. Ce territoire en majorit\u00e9 habit\u00e9 par des Alaouites, part du littoral jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la montagne voisine, et pourrait servir de base de repli<\/strong><\/a> si le r\u00e9gime venait \u00e0 perdre Damas.<\/p>\n

La vid\u00e9o ci-dessous a \u00e9t\u00e9 tourn\u00e9e par les brigade Hijra lil-Allah<\/a> dans le village de Kandassiyeh, aux portes du r\u00e9duit alaouite\u00a0:<\/em>
\n<\/object><\/p>\n

D\u00e9but octobre, une brigade a m\u00eame pouss\u00e9 jusqu\u2019aux portes de Qardaha, le fief familial des Assad. \u00ab\u00a0C’\u00e9tait une op\u00e9ration symbolique destin\u00e9e \u00e0 montrer au pouvoir qu\u2019aucune r\u00e9gion n\u2019est stable et que l\u2019ASL pouvait entrer \u00e0 Qardaha \u00e0 tout moment\u00a0\u00bb<\/em>, commente le responsable du r\u00e9seau m\u00e9diatique La Syrie en direct.<\/p>\n

Pour Peter Harling, de l\u2019International Crisis Group (ICG), \u00ab\u00a0l\u2019ASL est d\u00e9cid\u00e9e \u00e0 porter le conflit sur le territoire de l\u2019adversaire et de sa base sociale, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 s\u2019en prendre aux zones alaouites \u00e9pargn\u00e9es par les destructions\u00a0\u00bb<\/em>. C\u2019est de ces quartiers que le pouvoir bombarde en effet les banlieues r\u00e9volutionnaires ou que les miliciens impliqu\u00e9s dans la r\u00e9pression sont originaires. \u00ab\u00a0Les tirs qui ont vis\u00e9 le palais pr\u00e9sidentiel constituent un changement majeur,<\/em> reconna\u00eet l\u2019opposant Abdel Raouf Darwich, membre du collectif du 15 mars pour la d\u00e9mocratie en Syrie. L\u2019arm\u00e9e libre a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de s\u2019attaquer aux zones vitales pour le pouvoir.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Le pays alaouite constitue un verrou majeur pour le r\u00e9gime Assad. C\u2019est en effet dans ces zones marginalis\u00e9es de la montagne et dans les p\u00e9riph\u00e9ries des villes c\u00f4ti\u00e8res, que le pouvoir a recrut\u00e9 ses hommes. Exploitant la longue histoire de pers\u00e9cutions de cette communaut\u00e9, le r\u00e9gime des Assad a offert \u00e0 ces alaouites paup\u00e9ris\u00e9s emploi et protection contre all\u00e9geance. Soutenir Assad, c\u2019est se prot\u00e9ger en tant que minoritaires face \u00e0 la majorit\u00e9 sunnite, selon la formule de l\u2019ancien pr\u00e9sident Hafez al-Assad\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0Tu es avec Assad, tu es avec toi-m\u00eame.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Des affrontements mortels<\/h2>\n

Mais cette solidarit\u00e9 de minoritaires se fissure. Car le pays alaouite enterre chaque jour sa jeunesse. \u00ab\u00a0Il n\u2019y a pas un jour sans qu\u2019il n\u2019y ait un enterrement dans les villages de la montagne,<\/em> raconte une opposante originaire de la r\u00e9gion. Les gens sont us\u00e9s.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em> Le r\u00e9gime reconna\u00eet avoir perdu 7\u00a0300 hommes, ce serait probablement le double. Tous ne sont pas morts dans des combats\u00a0: certains ont \u00e9t\u00e9 tu\u00e9s pour avoir d\u00e9sob\u00e9i aux ordres du r\u00e9gime. Dans la montagne, certaines familles s\u2019opposent aux hommes d\u2019Assad venus enr\u00f4ler leurs enfants.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Dans les villages, les familles sont perdues et commencent \u00e0 \u00e9voquer ouvertement le d\u00e9part de Bachar al-Assad<\/em>, poursuit cette opposante. Ce n\u2019est pas la r\u00e9volution mais le d\u00e9but des divisions au sein de la communaut\u00e9.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em> Devant l\u2019incapacit\u00e9 du pouvoir \u00e0 venir \u00e0 bout du soul\u00e8vement, les langues se d\u00e9lient. \u00ab\u00a0D\u00e8s l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9, on pouvait entendre des familles se dire que le moment venu, le pr\u00e9sident Assad partira avec les siens et les laissera face \u00e0 l\u2019inconnu<\/em>, une chose impensable avant\u00a0\u00bb<\/em>, raconte l\u2019opposant Abdel Raouf Darwich, qui revient de cette r\u00e9gion dont il est originaire.<\/p>\n

\"Dans<\/a>Dans la montagne alaouite.\u00a9 S.Winter<\/div>\n

La petite classe moyenne a profit\u00e9 de la politique confessionnelle du r\u00e9gime en acc\u00e9dant \u00e0 des postes au sein de l\u2019administration\u00a0: elle se sent aujourd’hui de plus en plus expos\u00e9e aux repr\u00e9sailles m\u00eame si elle n\u2019est pas impliqu\u00e9e dans la r\u00e9pression. Ces craintes sont nourries par la radicalisation de groupes arm\u00e9s de l’opposition qui ex\u00e9cutent des soldats de l\u2019arm\u00e9e loyaliste et des miliciens. Mais les familles alaouites peuvent aussi \u00eatre victimes des exactions des milices loyalistes. \u00ab\u00a0\u00c0 Homs, les chabiha rackettent des Alaouites faute d\u2019autres clients<\/em>, rapporte un analyste occidental. Les Alaouites veulent se convaincre qu\u2019ils repr\u00e9sentent l\u2019\u00c9tat et combattent pour l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat de la nation<\/em>, mais ils savent que c\u2019est une illusion car ce syst\u00e8me est en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 li\u00e9 \u00e0 une personne, Assad.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Perceptible depuis des mois, la tension qui couvait a fini par \u00e9clater au grand jour le 28 septembre au c\u0153ur du fief des Assad\u00a0: des affrontements mortels se sont produits \u00e0 Qardaha opposant des hommes du clan Assad et leurs alli\u00e9s \u00e0 des familles respect\u00e9es de la communaut\u00e9 alaouite, les Al-Khayyer, les Othman et les Aboud. Surnomm\u00e9 le \u00ab\u00a0Seigneur de la montagne\u00a0\u00bb pour la terreur qu\u2019il y fait r\u00e9gner avec ses milices, Mohammed al-Assad, le cousin du chef de l\u2019\u00c9tat, aurait ouvert le feu pour rappeler \u00e0 l\u2019ordre<\/strong><\/a> ses coreligionnaires qui critiquaient Bachar al-Assad\u2026 La fusillade qui a suivi aurait fait une dizaine de morts et plus de trente bless\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Les Alaouites sont divis\u00e9s sur la gestion de la crise<\/em>, explique l\u2019historien Stefan Winter, sp\u00e9cialiste du Proche-Orient et de la Syrie ottomane \u00e0 l\u2019UQAM (Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al). Les proches de la famille Assad et les voyous, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les contrebandiers et trafiquants de la montagne, estiment que la violence peut tout r\u00e9gler et qu\u2019ils vont donner une le\u00e7on aux sunnites, et rappeler qui sont les vrais ma\u00eetres du pays\u00a0; tandis que les grandes familles de notables et les intellectuels pr\u00f4nent depuis le d\u00e9but la mod\u00e9ration et une solution politique<\/em>.\u00bb…..<\/p>\n

Descendant d\u2019un petit notable de Qardaha, les Assad appartiennent \u00e0 un clan peu puissant et \u00e0 l\u2019une des tribus les moins consid\u00e9r\u00e9es de la montagne c\u00f4ti\u00e8re, les Kalbiyeh. Pour gommer ce handicap, l\u2019ancien pr\u00e9sident s\u2019\u00e9tait appuy\u00e9 sur des personnalit\u00e9s religieuses de second plan, et avait nou\u00e9 des alliances avec les familles de notables par des mariages et des cooptations. Des membres de la famille al-Khayyer ont ainsi appuy\u00e9 le pr\u00e9sident Hafez al-Assad. Les Assad ont ensuite soumis la communaut\u00e9 en \u00e9liminant leurs concurrents. Tous les officiers alaouites qui auraient pu s\u2019opposer \u00e0 leur ascension au sommet de l\u2019\u00c9tat ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9cart\u00e9s voire \u00e9limin\u00e9s, tant sous Hafez al-Assad que sous Bachar….<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Les familles d\u2019intellectuels ou de religieux sont respect\u00e9es par la classe moyenne alaouite urbanis\u00e9e, qui est capable de penser une identit\u00e9 religieuse alaouite moderne hors du leadership d\u2019Assad,<\/em> explique l\u2019historien Stefan Winter. Mais \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence des grandes notabilit\u00e9s druzes, aucune figure alaouite n\u2019a assez de charisme et de capital social pour rallier la communaut\u00e9 qui est tr\u00e8s fragment\u00e9e et n\u2019avait jamais connu de v\u00e9ritable leader politique avant les Assad.\u00a0\u00bb ….<\/em><\/p>\n

Pas de prise sur l’arm\u00e9e<\/strong><\/p>\n

Les leaders de la montagne n\u2019ont pas non plus d\u2019ascendant sur les effectifs alaouites de l\u2019arm\u00e9e. \u00ab Les all\u00e9geances tribales historiques ne comptent pas au sein de l\u2019institution militaire car l\u2019arm\u00e9e et les forces sp\u00e9ciales ont offert une promotion sociale aux alaouites en tant qu\u2019individus et tous clans confondus, poursuit Stefan Winter. Les amiti\u00e9s qui se sont cr\u00e9\u00e9es durent et les r\u00e9seaux sont si forts, ils d\u00e9pendent tellement du r\u00e9gime qu\u2019il est difficile d\u2019imaginer qu\u2019ils se rebellent contre Assad. \u00bb Trop compromis dans la r\u00e9pression, les hauts grad\u00e9s savent aussi qu\u2019il leur sera difficile de n\u00e9gocier une cl\u00e9mence quand bien m\u00eame ils seraient en mesure de fomenter un coup d\u2019\u00c9tat…..<\/p>\n

Coinc\u00e9s entre un r\u00e9gime qui les m\u00e8ne \u00e0 la catastrophe et la peur de l\u2019apr\u00e8s, les Alaouites pourraient choisir la fuite, vers la montagne c\u00f4ti\u00e8re syrienne et le littoral, ou encore dans l\u2019arri\u00e8re-pays alaouite en Turquie. Selon nos informations, des familles enti\u00e8res de Damas ont franchi le pas. Les sp\u00e9culateurs aussi\u00a0: \u00e0 Tartous, sur le littoral, les prix de l\u2019immobilier ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 flamb\u00e9.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Business Insider: The War For Syria Is Also A War For Iraq<\/a>
\n2012-11-28<\/p>\n

Divided by history, geography and God, Abu Mohammed and Abu Hamza both smoke Marlboro cigarettes and agree on one point: The war for Syria is also a war for Iraq. Driven from their homes by the 2003 US-led war in Iraq, both men, now in their 40s, …<\/p><\/blockquote>\n


\n<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>Syrian rebels take two military bases in heavy fighting<\/a><\/p>\n

\n
BEIRUT \u2014 Rebel fighters took over two military bases in Syria after heavy fighting Tuesday, an additional sign that the ragtag force may finally be breaking a weeks-long stalemate and making progress in its battle against the government of President Bashar al-Assad….In the past week alone<\/a>, rebels have taken control of about a half-dozen military bases across the country as well as the Tishreen hydroelectric dam<\/a> near the Turkish border….<\/div>\n
\n

In a video posted online <\/a>Tuesday, which reportedly showed one of the captured bases, fighters affiliated with the Free Syrian Army stomped on a bust of Assad\u2019s father, Hafez, at the 666th air force battalion base south of Damascus.<\/p>\n

The second base, southeast of Aleppo, was overrun by fighters from Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Both are religious extremist groups suspected of having ties to al-Qaeda.<\/p>\n

That the two air bases were taken over by such radically different groups among the opposition indicates that the recent rebel gains may not have been coordinated by any sort of unified leadership. It also hints at potential problems ahead if Islamist and secular groups begin to fight one another for control of territory….<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Hizb Allah\u2019s Role in the Syrian Uprising<\/a>
\nChris Zambelis – Nov 28, 2012 – Combating Terrorism Center – West Point<\/p>\n

…..The fall of the Ba`athist regime would certainly take Syria out of the Resistance Axis. This does not mean that Hizb Allah and its allies will stand idle. It is conceivable that Nasrallah\u2019s explanations for Hizb Allah\u2019s activities in Syria reflect this reality. A deployment of Hizb Allah operatives in strategically important areas along the Syrian-Lebanese border, especially in and around villages that are home to communities sympathetic to Hizb Allah or possibly the Ba`athist regime (or apolitical communities opposed to the FSA), ensures the group an operational foothold in Syria in any post-Assad scenario. A Hizb Allah presence in these areas also emboldens the Ba`athist regime, thereby allowing it to devote valuable military resources to other theaters. At the same time, Hizb Allah is also a relatively small organization that has worked hard over the years to foster its reputation as a Lebanese entity that exists to defend Lebanon against Israel. Hizb Allah, therefore, must be careful not to overextend itself in operational as well as political terms, especially as the Ba`athist regime continues to draw the international community\u2019s scorn.<\/p>\n

Some predict that the potential collapse of its patron in Damascus will leave Hizb Allah irreparably weakened and vulnerable in the face of its numerous Lebanese and regional foes, especially Israel. Subscribers of this view, however, would be advised to revisit Hizb Allah\u2019s evolution over the years, specifically the period of tensions surrounding the \u201cwar of the camps\u201d (1984-89) characterized by the years of open warfare between Hizb Allah and its present-day allies the Amal Movement and Syria during Lebanon\u2019s civil war (1975-1990).[27] Hizb Allah has long established itself as an organic Lebanese organization that is able to wield tremendous social, political, economic, and military functions in Lebanon. Hizb Allah will remain relevant in Lebanon and beyond should the Ba`athist regime fall.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Shabiha Militias and the Destruction of Syria<\/a>
\nStephen Starr – Combating Terrorism Center – West Point<\/p>\n

….The Syrian regime is running out of funds[20] and is losing territory to rebel forces.[21] Although the full extent of the government\u2019s losses in the north and east of the country have not yet been fully realized and accepted by the regime and its shabiha enforcers, their reaction to the news that rebel forces are at the gates of Damascus\u2014whenever that happens\u2014will likely see them turn increasingly violent against local Sunni populations. Areas within their reach and previously known for resistance to the regime are likely to suffer most, and Dariya-like massacres may well become commonplace in the time until rebel forces finally overthrow the al-Assad regime.<\/p>\n

The quickening rate of violence now coloring the revolt-turned-war means groups like the shabiha will play an increasingly central role in conducting violence as law and order breaks down in the major cities. If and when rebels reach Damascus after having taken control of much of the rest of the country, the shabiha, making a last stand, will likely unleash ferocious reprisals on Sunni-dominated neighborhoods and regions.<\/p>\n

The psychology that Syria is \u201cAssad\u2019s Syria,\u201d a country ruled by Alawites, is so prevalent that pro-Assad militias are unlikely to be easily brought to a negotiating table. This is further complicated by the fact that there are no immediately obvious shabiha leaders who could bring the roving militias under control. Little is known of the shabiha leadership, where it exists today, but prominent figures are likely to be trusted relatives of powerful Alawite groups such as the Shalish, Makhlouf and Deeb families.[22]<\/p>\n

Once it becomes clear there is no future for the al-Assad regime, pro-government paramilitaries will likely flee Damascus and other mixed-religion areas around the country for the rural villages and towns of Qardaha, Shaykh Badr, Ain al-Tina and others in Syria\u2019s coastal mountains\u2014the Alawites\u2019 ancestral home. Without what they perceive as protection, thousands of Alawite civilians may also migrate to these safe areas because of fear of retribution from rebels and Sunni civilians. Yet for shabiha gangs cut off from safe zones and unable to get to the mountains along the coast, bloody \u201clast stand\u201d scenarios may occur.<\/p>\n

The arguments outlined in this article paint a grim future for Syrians and their country. Given the growing acceleration of violence[23] and the international community\u2019s reluctance to get more directly involved in solution seeking, less bloody outcomes for Syria\u2019s immediate future are scant. The violence will continue and likely worsen before the al-Assad regime leaves or is forced from power.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

?Afrin: Fighting near Qastal Jindu<\/a><\/p>\n

KURDWATCH, November 28, 2012\u2014On October 28, 2012, armed conflicts broke out near the Yazidi village of Qastal Jindu near ?Afrin. The conflicts occurred between units of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the Free Syrian Army’s (FSA) Storm of the North Brigade, led by ?Ammar al?Dadikhi alias Abu Ibrahim. Fighters for the Storm of the North Brigade conquered the PYD checkpoint and arrested two PYD supporters. Shortly thereafter fighters for the ?Amr ibn al??As unit led by Ahmad ?Ubaid forced the Storm of the North Brigade out of Qastal Jindu; the PYD returned to the village. The exact reasons for the conflicts between the PYD and the various FSA units are unclear, but it is certain that the conflicts were not, as the PYD claims, anti-Yazidi attacks by the FSA on Qastal Jindu.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Ra?s al-?Ayn: Dozens dead after Syrian Air Force attacks<\/a><\/p>\n

KURDWATCH, November 24, 2012\u2014On November 12, 13, and 14, 2012, Syrian Air Force planes, supported by ground-to-ground missiles, attacked Free Syrian Army (FSA) positions in Ra?s al??Ayn (Ser\u00ea Kaniy\u00ea). In the process residential districts in which FSA fighters were entrenched were also bombed. As many residents had already fled the city shortly after the FSA’s invasion on November 8, 2012 [further information], the number of civilian deaths\u2014at least twelve\u2014remained relatively low. Turkish ambulances brought the injured to the nearby Turkish city of Ceylanp?nar. There are no reliable figures on the number of dead among the ranks of the FSA.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Ra?s al-?Ayn: Heavy fighting between PYD and FSA<\/a><\/p>\n

KURDWATCH, November 23, 2012\u2014On November 19, 2012, armed confrontations between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and units of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) took place in the eastern part of the city of Ra?s al??Ayn (Ser\u00ea Kaniy\u00ea). An activist from Ra?s al??Ayn told KurdWatch that prior to the fighting, FSA representatives demanded that all PYD flags between Ra?s al??Ayn and al?Malikiyah (D\u00earik) be removed. FSA representatives explained that this was an order from the Turkish government, who supports them. The chief negotiator for the PYD wanted to discuss the matter first. The activist from Ra?s al??Ayn further stated: \u00bbAt first [on November 8,2012] approximately five hundred FSA fighters came from Turkey. Around a hundred stayed at the border; the remaining four hundred marched into the city. Later, around two hundred additional fighters came from ar?Raqqah; they were joined by other people from the area. It isn’t really very many, but they are Islamists and they have come to die.\u00ab According to his estimates, the PYD has around one thousand armed fighters in the region.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

CBS News: Firsthand view of deady car bombing in Syria<\/a>
\n2012-11-29<\/p>\n

(CBS News) DAMASCUS – In Syria’s civil war, at least 34 people were killed Wednesday when two car bombs ripped through a suburb of Damascus. The Assad dictatorship has been trying to crush a rebellion that broke out more than a year-and-a half ago. …<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Turkey, Syria and the NATO umbrella: A reading from Brussels
\nMarc Pierini is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe<\/a> and a Turkey<\/a><\/p>\n

Based on a Turkish request, an agreement is being reached in NATO about the deployment of a temporary missile defense system. NATO units (possibly drawn from Dutch, German or U.S. forces) will position Patriot missile batteries in southern Turkey against threats coming from the Syrian regime. This is in response to the worsening Syrian crisis and the explicit threats from Damascus to use force at regional level.<\/p>\n

The purpose of the Patriot deployment should not be mistaken for what it is not. Missiles such as these are used against incoming ballistic\/tactical missiles and against aircrafts. Since the Syrian government alluded on July 24 to the use of chemical or biological weapons if \u201cexposed to external aggression,\u201d the main threat coming from the Bashar al-Assad regime is thought to be Scud missiles with chemical warheads. This is a purely defensive posture.<\/p>\n

This is not equivalent to declaring a no-fly zone, not even implementing a safe area for displaced persons within Syria. Such objectives would need many more steps to be taken, both legally and technically. At this stage of the Syrian crisis, it is also out of question to take decisions such as sending troops into Syrian territory or aircrafts in its airspace. The Patriot deployment is typical of the \u201cno-boots-on-the-ground-nor-in-the-air\u201d posture of Western powers.<\/p>\n

With such relatively limited objectives, what is the meaning of the Patriot deployment?<\/p>\n

First and foremost, it draws a clear red line for Damascus: the Turkish territory is off-limit to the Syrian army and air force. Bashar al-Assad is known, like his father Hafez, for his inclination to internationalize a conflict…<\/p>\n

The al-Assad regime has maneuvered itself in a corner. With a usable territory soon to shrink to Damascus and\/or the Alawite mountain, how soon will the Assad-Makhlouf clan understand the hard fundamentals of their situation? That is the next question. At least, by now, they know that neighboring countries are off-limits.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cSyria Love:\u201d Watching Syrian Propaganda in Iraq<\/a>
\nEdith Szanto*<\/p>\n

Ramadan 2010 was the last time I visited Syria.\u00a0\u00a0I have been aching to go back, but the situation there does not allow it.\u00a0\u00a0For the last year, I have been sitting across the street, in a manner of speaking, talking with neighbors, \u00a0and watching the events from a safe distance.\u00a0\u00a0The place where I have been observing Syria is neighboring Iraq.\u00a0\u00a0Iraqi Kurdistan to be exact.\u00a0\u00a0From here, I have spoken with Syrians who have left before and during the current crisis.\u00a0\u00a0Some of my students are Iraqis who have spent years in Syria.\u00a0\u00a0They grew up in Syria and they miss it just as I do.<\/p>\n

In the beginning, when I first I came to Iraq in the fall of 2011, Syrian friends in Iraq (but not all of my Iraqi students who lived in Syria) univocally supported the uprising.\u00a0\u00a0Many have since reconsidered their stance.\u00a0\u00a0They want neither religious\u00a0factions\u00a0to take over, nor do they want civil war.\u00a0\u00a0They were optimistic in the beginning.\u00a0\u00a0They were certain the regime would fall quickly.\u00a0\u00a0Today, they expect Syria to turn into another Iraq, predicting a decade or more of violence.<\/p>\n

Among the many questions raised by the uprising is why the Syrian government has lasted this long (in contrast to the Tunisian and Egyptian governments, which fell relatively quickly).\u00a0\u00a0Moreover, what has the Syrian government done (besides employ sheer force) to remain in power?\u00a0\u00a0In this article, I examine two Syrian TV channels through which the Syrian government has tried to promote itself and gain support.<\/p>\n

When I settled into my new apartment in September 2011, I browsed the satellite TV channels in search of news about Syria.\u00a0\u00a0I found Syria News and Syria Drama, the usual channels. \u00a0I was, however, surprised to discover channels entitled Syria Education, Syria Medicine, Syria Love, and Syria\u00a0Balad…..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Opposition claims a total of 4 jets and a helicopter shot down today Comment by Syrialover November 28th, 2012, 6:29 am said: Joshua, you are buying into nonesense giving headlines to those claiming they\u2019ll turn Syria into an Islamist state. 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