{"id":16640,"date":"2012-11-22T14:55:02","date_gmt":"2012-11-22T19:55:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=16640"},"modified":"2012-11-22T14:55:02","modified_gmt":"2012-11-22T19:55:02","slug":"will-assad-soon-abandon-the-north-to-rebel-control","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/will-assad-soon-abandon-the-north-to-rebel-control\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Assad Soon Abandon the North to Rebel Control?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Syria: Rebels shut down key government supply lines<\/a>
\nTom A. Peter | The Christian Science Monitor | Nov 20, 2012<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"Description:\"Description:<\/a><\/div>\n

After months of fighting, Syrian opposition forces in Aleppo say that in the past week they\u2019ve captured several critical areas from government forces that may soon give them the upper hand in northern Syria. The new ground will allow opposition groups to strain or potentially cut off supplies to government troops fighting in Aleppo Province….<\/p>\n

FSA fighters say the final step to closing off supply lines for the Syrian Army in Aleppo will mean taking control of the city\u2019s airport, which the opposition group says it is now close to doing. As the group takes hold of an increasing share of ground and cuts off more government supply routes, however, it\u2019s confronted with the realities of trying to advance farther with extremely limited supplies.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re trying to cut the supply lines for the regime inside the city,\u201d says Abu Tawfik, a commander of Liwa Tawheed, one of the largest FSA units now fighting inside Aleppo. \u201cThe airport is the most important part of the city now. If we can control the airport, we can cut their supplies and win the war here.<\/p>\n

The road connecting Aleppo and Damascus is already under rebel control, which means that the regime forces are now almost entirely dependent on resupplying their troops by air. According to FSA fighters, most of the regime forces’ supplies for Aleppo Province are brought to the airport, where they are picked up by helicopter and delivered to the surrounding bases.<\/p>\n

The airport is now surrounded on three sides by FSA fighters, but they have so far been unable to capture one area near the airport that is populated by Assad loyalists. Fighting is likely to drag on there for some time to come.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Syria Opposition Aims to Raise $60 Billion for Rebuilding<\/a>
\nBy Dana El Baltaji and Dahlia Kholaif – Nov 21, 2012 – Blookberg<\/p>\n

A coalition of groups battling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is seeking to raise $60 billion from allied nations to help rebuild the country when fighting ends, an opposition leader said.<\/p>\n

Syria will need the money for reconstruction in the first six months after the conflict ends, Syrian National Council leader George Sabra told reporters in Dubai today. The United Arab Emirates may provide funds \u201csoon,\u201d he said…..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Rebel gains clear way to Syria’s partition<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
Wednesday, November 21 2012<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
Oxford Analytica 2012<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Rebel forces captured the base of the 46th regiment near Aleppo on November 18. Their campaign has had mixed fortunes in recent weeks. Last month, their capture of Maarat al-Numan on the Damascus-Aleppo highway isolated loyalist troops in the north from the capital further. However, besieged loyalist positions in the north seemed determined to fight on, and regime airstrikes had prompted insurgents to discuss evacuating Maarat al-Numan. Syria’s civil war appeared on course for a protracted stalemate. However, a number of rebel gains in recent days indicate that they may be on the verge of a de facto partition of the country, which could tip the balance of the conflict in their favour.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Impact<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Destruction of Syria’s main cities and infrastructure will accelerate.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Risk of overspill into Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq will increase.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>As the country fragments, warlordism is likely to spread. <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Foreign intervention remains unlikely, but external actors will increase support to both sides.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>Improved arms supplies would significantly increase the opposition campaign’s chances.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
What next<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
Loyalist troops are likely to lose most of their strategic strongholds in the north in coming months, paving the way to the establishment of a largely-contiguous rebel area by mid-2013. This will provide a springboard for the opposition to launch an effective campaign on the regime forces’ last remaining strongholds of Damascus, Homs and Hama in the second half of next year. <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Analysis<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
The Syrian conflict is a paradoxical one. On the one hand, the regime has been losing ground everywhere, and has abandoned key instruments of national sovereignty such as most crossing points on the Turkish and Iraqi borders, as well as many air defence bases. On the other hand, the fierce resistance of loyalist troops has suggested that any ‘tipping point’ is still some way off.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
A number of factors have accounted for the stalemate: <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
1.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/span>Alawi cohesion <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
President Bashar al-Assad’s army is sectarian in nature, with the Alawi community forming its backbone. These forces are fighting for communal survival rather than for the state or even the regime. This makes the military virtually immune to major psychological and physical blows to the state apparatus such as the loss of the Syrian-Turkish border area, the assassination of high-ranking security officials in Damascus and the defection of Prime Minister Riyad Hijab in mid-2012 (<\/span>see SYRIA: Regime is cohesive, but increasingly vulnerable – April 5, 2012<\/span><\/span><\/a>).<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
2.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/span>Loyalist overstretch <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
_<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
The regime’s use of artillery and airstrikes has been a substitute for wide-scale ground offensives<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
Assad’s failure to reconquer the parts of Aleppo seized by the opposition in July has demonstrated his lack of manpower. Many Sunni soldiers and pilots are not allowed to leave their barracks in an attempt to prevent defections, leaving the regime reliant on roughly a quarter of its 300-400,000 troops. The regime has needed to bring in sizeable reinforcements from the neighbouring provinces of Idlib and Raqqa, at the expense of its hold over these regions. As a result, it has retained control over the western half of Aleppo and the airport, but has hardly any presence in the surrounding countryside. This has enabled rebels from these areas to attack loyalist facilities on the western fringe of the city <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The regime’s manpower shortage is also evident in Damascus. The last weeks have seen the loss of several air-defence bases, including, in early November, a battalion of S-200\/SA-5 Gammon missiles, Syria’s most advanced long-range anti-aircraft system. The regime’s campaign to secure the capital is reliant on elite units (Republican Guard, 4th Armoured Division) equipped with updated tanks and armoured personal carriers. While these advantages have enabled the regime to reconquer parts of the capital, it cannot prevent insurgents from re-infiltrating because it lacks enough reliable garrison troops.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
3.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/span>Insurgent resilience<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
Last August the regime conducted a devastating counter-attack on the rebel forces in and around Damascus, purportedly annihilating them. However, in recent weeks there have been new offensives by the Liwa al-Islam group in the eastern part of the capital as well as attacks in the centre and against the Alawi neighbourhood of Mezze 86.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
4.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/span>Rebel anti-aircraft capabilities<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
_<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
Rebel unification requires the unification of external support<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
The rebels’ main weakness has been their shortage of firepower, in particular the lack of efficient anti-aircraft defences. Several helicopters and airplanes have been shot down with heavy machine guns (‘Dushka’ 12.7, KPV 14.5), ZU-23 auto-cannons, and, possibly, shoulder-fired heat-seeking SA-7 missiles. Yet none of these out-dated systems is accurate enough to neutralise the regime’s air force. In order to tip the balance, the opposition needs to overcome US reluctance to allow it to acquire more advance missiles such as the US-made Stinger or Russian SA-18 (<\/span>see SYRIA: Military power gives regime vital advantage – May 1, 2012<\/span><\/span><\/a>). <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
The insurgents’ lack of anti-aircraft capabilities is detrimental at several levels: <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>The airstrikes have caused heavy rebel losses, which have hindered their offensive against remaining loyalist strongholds in the north. <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>The accompanying heavy civilian losses have made their mere presence in ‘liberated’ areas extremely costly.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>The opposition has been unable to prevent the re-supply by air of besieged loyalist bases such as Wadi al-Deif near Maarat al-Numan, as well as Harim castle and, until its fall this week, the 46th regiment near Aleppo. <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
5.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/span>Rebel artillery support<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
Rebels are often unable to capture military bases due to their lack of artillery support. Over the last weeks, insurgents in the north have made increasing use of heavy military hardware such as tanks and 130mm field guns seized from loyalist forces. So far, such instances have been too limited to tip the balance in the opposition’s favour. Moreover, this weaponry is too visible and inaccurate to be used against mobile and heavily-defended targets such as armoured convoys. Rebels are still attacking these targets with rudimentary means such as home-made roadside bombs, RPG-7 short-range anti-tank rockets, and SPG-9 recoilless guns. <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Breaking the stalemate<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
The rebel campaign has made two important breakthroughs in recent days, capturing Hamadan airport on the Iraqi border and the 46th regiment base at al-Atarib. Rebel forces had laid siege to the al-Atarib base for months, but without any tangible result. Its fall is a strategic loss for loyalist forces in their defence of the north — they had been using the base to shell the western part of Aleppo province. <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
More importantly, it indicates that the rebels are now overcoming one of their greatest difficulties — conquering heavily-defended hard targets. The capture of military bases may also create a snowball effect because such bases house large stockpiles of weapons, thus increasing the rebels’ firepower. <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Outlook <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
The regime’s loss of its military bases in the north will disrupt aerial supply lines and airstrikes, thus eroding its key advantage over the rebels. This paves the way to the opposition taking full control of northern Syria by mid-2013, with the exception of a few government-controlled pockets of Aleppo. <\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
However, in order to paralyse definitively the regime’s ground forces and defeat the elite armoured units that defend Damascus, the opposition still needs to acquire many more advanced anti-tank missiles than the few Russian-made Metis it has looted from the regime’s stockpiles. In the absence of foreign military intervention, a rebel victory will not take place without a significant improvement in the quantity and quality of rebel weapons, either through delivery from foreign state supporters or, more probably, through the capture of new army bases and stockpiles.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Tawhid backs Syrian National Coalition<\/a>
\nNovember 21, 2012\u00a0 By Marlin Dick in Daily Star
\n<\/a>
\n\"Saleh,<\/div>\n
Saleh, seen here speaking to rebel fighters in Aleppo last month, said Syria should be a “civil” state. (AFP PHOTO\/ZAC BAILLIE)<\/div>\n
\n

BEIRUT: The Tawhid Brigade, a leading Islamist rebel group in the city of Aleppo, announced its support Tuesday for the opposition Syrian National Coalition<\/a> and its rejection of an Islamic state for a post-Assad Syria.<\/p>\n

The announcement was made in a video posted on YouTube, and issued on behalf of the Tawhid Brigade, the Revolutionary Military Council of Aleppo, and a Revolutionary Transitional Council<\/a> for the city.<\/p>\n

The speaker, Abdel-Qader Saleh of the Tawhid Brigade, asserts that \u201ca free Syria<\/a> is a civil state, with Islam as the basis of its legislation, and protection for all components of Syrian society.\u201d<\/p>\n

The mention of religion might rattle staunch secularists, but the current Syrian Constitution\u2019s Article 3 stipulates that \u201cIslamic jurisprudence is a primary source of legislation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Saleh goes on to say that Tawhid and the two rebel councils \u201cunderstood\u201d why other Islamist rebel fighters in Aleppo, claiming to represent more than a dozen groups, strongly denounced the newly formed opposition Syrian National Coalition two days earlier.<\/p>\n

The Islamist rebel groups had slammed the National Coalition, formed earlier this month in Qatar, as a foreign-imposed \u201cconspiracy\u201d against the uprising against President Bashar Assad, now in its 20th month.<\/p>\n

In the earlier video, the Islamist fighters also vowed that a post-Assad Syria would be an Islamic state, which sparked angry reactions by many supporters of the uprising via social media.<\/p>\n

Flanked by half a dozen rebel figures, Saleh said the earlier statement was issued due to the \u201cmarginalization of revolutionary groups with an actual presence on the ground, which are leading the liberation fight in Aleppo.\u201d<\/p>\n

The National Coalition has vowed to be more representative than its predecessor, the Syrian National Council<\/a> \u2013 but has yet to make good on its pledges.<\/p>\n

Saleh hinted as much, declaring \u201csupport for the Syrian National Coalition, as long as it adheres to the objectives and aspirations of the revolution.\u201d<\/p>\n

But he demanded that the coalition widen its scope by including \u201crevolutionary forces\u201d on the ground, specifically by appointing them to the various committees and bodies that the National Coalition has promised to establish, in a bid to become a government-in-exile.<\/p>\n

Saleh also supported the \u201cunification of various rebel brigades,\u201d pointing out that they should work toward the goals of \u201cfreedom, dignity and toppling the regime.\u201d<\/p>\n

Saleh ended by invoking the Islamic phrase \u201cglory to God, his Prophet and the believers.\u201d However, this is immediately preceded by the leading secular slogan of the uprising, namely \u201cLong live a free and glorious Syria,\u201d which is absent from the rhetoric of many hard-line Islamist factions fighting the regime.<\/p>\n

The clarification of the stance by the Tawhid Brigade, seen as one of the leading, and staunchly \u201cIslamist\u201d rebel factions, was carried widely on pro-uprising Facebook pages, representing various parts of the country…..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

Syria now running a war economy as conflict spreads<\/a>
\nWed, Nov 21 – By Suleiman Al-Khalidi<\/p>\n

AMMAN (Reuters) – At a rebel-controlled border crossing in northern Syria, camps housing thousands of refugees trying to flee the country occupy an area that less than two years ago was usually crammed with lorries queuing to pass through customs.<\/p>\n

The capture of Bab al-Hawa, previously a throughfare for exports from Turkey and the Gulf to the rest of the Middle East and Europe, highlights the loss of transhipments through Syria as conflict has spread, causing a sharp drop in income from customs duties.<\/p>\n

Plunging public revenues are a sign of the fiscal pressures Damascus is facing in the wake of the 20-month-old uprising against President Bashar al-Assad’s government, which has crippled industrial output and oil production and triggered a sharp depreciation in the Syrian currency.<\/p>\n

As the government focuses on trying to overcome the rebels it is directing economic resources to Assad supporters by maintaining high subsidies, increasing public sector wages and stockpiling wheat and other staple goods – on top of having to increase defense spending.<\/p>\n

That is putting a severe strain on public finances, raising the risk that the authorities will eventually have to resort to printing money to support the economy, something Damascus has long tried to avoid for fear of fuelling hyperinflation and further social unrest.<\/p>\n

Finance Minister Mohammad Juleilati, unveiling next year’s budget last month, announced a 13 percent rise in public sector salaries and a 25 percent increase in subsidies on food, fuel, power and agriculture.<\/p>\n

“This is a war budget in which the bulk is spent on the army and state employees to keep the government machinery going so that it continues to function, especially in the areas that are still under its control, and to show that the state is still on its feet,” said Samir Seifan, a prominent Syrian economist.<\/p>\n

He was involved in policymaking before the crisis but has since fled the country.<\/p>\n

Juleilati’s 2013 budget was 4 percent larger than this year’s at 1.38 trillion Syrian pounds ($19.62 billion) despite plummeting revenues, notably from oil, which used to account for 45 percent of budget income. Now it contributes only 20-30 percent, economists estimate, as oil production has halved since the crisis to around 200,000 barrels a day.<\/p>\n

“Revenues have deteriorated and the authorities have used up their reserves and what is keeping them afloat is some financial aid from Iran and possibly Russia,” said Seifan.<\/p>\n

The budget, moreover, does not fully reflect the state of the economy or government finances given secrecy surrounding military spending and a flourishing unofficial economy in which hundreds of thousands of Syrians pay no tax on income from working in small workshops, doing seasonal agricultural work or conducting illicit smuggling.<\/p>\n

Sanctions imposed by Western countries banning the import of arms from Syria and blocking the Assad government’s access to Western financial systems are aimed at choking off the money Assad needs to fund the Syrian military.<\/p>\n

Seifan estimates that Syria’s gross domestic product shrank by at least 30 to 40 percent last year due to the collapse of tourism, which used to account for 11 percent of GDP, and the drop in oil output which previously contributed 23 percent of GDP.<\/p>\n

A near 65 percent drop in the Syrian pound since the crisis began has sent the cost of importing fuel and other goods surging and shortages are also evident.<\/p>\n

“The shortages in gasoline and diesel are mainly due to rising demand by the army,” said a Syrian civil servant working in a non-defense ministry, interviewed via Skype.<\/p>\n

The government’s budget deficit had been a manageable 3-5 percent of GDP before the crisis but the 2013 budget forecasts a 745 billion Syrian pound deficit, or nearly a quarter of the country’s pre-crisis GDP of $50 billion-$60 billion.<\/p>\n

Subsidies on a range of goods from diesel to electricity to sugar and rice consume almost 40 percent of government spending while electricity costs eat up around 15 percent of the budget.<\/p>\n

Sanctions against money transfers meanwhile have depleted remittances from Syrians living abroad, whose transfers of $800 million annually had provided a social safety net. Their loss has added to the plight of a population where military conflict has displaced hundreds of thousands and reduced many towns and city districts to rubble.<\/p>\n

Bankers in Damascus reported in June that the authorities had already released new cash, printed in Russia, into circulation to ensure the payment of public sector salaries and expenses, although Syria’s central bank denied such a move…..<\/p>\n

Economists say it may soon be forced to print money on a much bigger scale.<\/p>\n

“If they don’t get enough loans from their allies Russia and Iran they will print money and the pound will just jump from 100 to 200 to 300 against the dollar,” said Seifan.<\/p>\n

“The state is afraid of printing money because it will create a social time bomb,” he said. “But it could be increasingly forced to do so to pay the army’s salaries.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Could a Syrian Kurdistan work?<\/a><\/div>\n
Assessing the economic and political potential of an autonomous Kurdish region<\/div>\n
\n
By Josh Wood on November 21, 2012 – Executive Magazine<\/div>\n

Things are changing in northeastern Syria\u2019s Kurdish-majority Hassake province.<\/p>\n

Gradually, the swoops and curves of Arabic script on storefronts and street signs are being replaced with the Latin characters that Syria\u2019s Kurds write their own language in \u2014 an act that was illegal just a few months ago. So too are the soldiers of the Damascus regime being replaced with Kurdish militiamen and the reins of governance taken up by the local groups….<\/p>\n

\u201cThe oil located in the Hassake region is not good quality oil, but these fields are the only fields which have seen an increase in their output in the last few years and most of Syria\u2019s remaining oil reserves are in this region,\u201d said Jihad Yazigi, the editor of The Syria Report<\/em>, a publication that analyzes the country\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n

Getting exact figures on capacity during a civil war is understandably difficult. In Hassake\u2019s main oil town, Rmeilan, a production manager from the government\u2019s state oil company, the Syrian Petroleum Company, said that before the war the nearby fields were producing 166,000 barrels per day (bpd). As of September, due to the civil war and international sanctions on Syrian oil, only 80,000 bpd were being produced, he said, on condition of anonymity to protect his safety. It is estimated that the area has enough oil to maintain pre-war production levels for at least two decades.<\/p>\n

The Hassake region is not exclusively Kurdish. While it is difficult to be certain as the Syrian government does not include Kurdish as an ethnic group in national surveys, they are estimated to make up more than 60 percent of the region’s population.\u00a0And while much of Hassake is in the hands of Kurdish groups, the main oilfields remain controlled by the government\u2019s forces.<\/p>\n

But sanctions have mostly halted Syria\u2019s export of oil and forced foreign companies such as Total, Gulfsands and Royal Dutch Shell to halt their activities in the country. With oil revenues low and the government locked in an increasingly bloody civil war, there is a possibility that the regime could lose its ability to control the country\u2019s oil.<\/p>\n

\u201cSyria\u2019s oil business is in shambles,\u201d said Joshua Landis, a professor at the University of Oklahoma and a Syria expert, adding that the government has lost the ability to plan its oil output strategically. \u201cThe Syrian government is not in long-term planning mode, it is planning day by day,\u201d he said. \u201cIt is really directing its attention to the big population centers and denying the opposition a stable safe haven within Syria.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Syria\u2019s Kurds, grabbing the oil fields in the northeast could be a golden ticket, allowing them to bankroll autonomy in one form or another. \u201cIf you manage to produce and sell 50,000 barrels per day, you can sustain the life of one to two million people quite easily,\u201d Yazigi said…..while Kurdish groups might want to take control of the oil, they would likely face obstacles. \u201cI think that the central government \u2014 and any future central government \u2014 will be willing to send tanks to take control of this region,\u201d said Yazigi….<\/p>\n

Already autonomous?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cI think they have autonomy already, we don\u2019t have to talk about it in the future tense: They\u2019ve taken it, the state has collapsed, they\u2019re running their own affairs pretty much,\u201d said Landis. \u201cObviously, a lot depends on how long this state of affairs drags on \u2014 the longer it drags on, the better it is for Kurds.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yazigi has a more pessimistic view. \u201cI think there is a desire from the Kurds to be more autonomous, but I think it\u2019s going to be very difficult for them to have extended rights that go beyond speaking their language and teaching it,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

At present, it does not look likely that whoever comes out on top will be sympathetic to giving the Kurds more autonomy.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Arab opposition has been willing to make noises about greater autonomy but it doesn\u2019t want to commit itself anything like recognizing national rights for Kurds,\u201d said Landis….<\/p>\n

According to Landis, the gist of the message that the Free Syrian Army is sending the Kurds by entering their areas and engaging in battles is that \u201cyou don\u2019t get to become Switzerland and be neutral; there is no Switzerland in Syria and if you side with the government we\u2019re going to make you feel the pain.\u201d Detractors of the PYD have accused the group of being aligned with the Assad regime, though the organization denies this and says it is against the government.<\/p>\n

Militarily, with only several thousand fighters, the PYD\u2019s forces are outnumbered and see hostile threats on all fronts. Still, they are readying their militias for possible confrontations to protect what they have gained.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are organizing ourselves, our people, to be ready for everything, for every possible situation by this regime or a future regime,\u201d said Saleh Mohammed, the leader of the PYD.\u00a0 \u201cEven if there is any invasion by Turkey, we are ready for it.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

With Syria\u2019s eastern oilfields in rebel hands, a brisk business in pirated crude grows<\/a>
\nBy David Enders, McClatchy Newspapers<\/p>\n

SHAHEL, Syria — Syrian rebels have captured two of the three major oilfields in the country\u2019s southeastern Deir al Zour province and are extracting oil that they say is helping to support their rebellion<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are at the beginning of winter, and people need oil to run the bakeries and to heat their homes. The weather is very cold here,\u201d said a rebel leader here who, for security reasons, identifies himself by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohamed.<\/p>\n

The capture of the fields is another blow to the Syrian government\u2019s attempt to offset inflation and shortages of various goods in the areas it still controls. It also has set off a booming oil trade in this impoverished area. Dozens of trucks wait in line 24 hours a day to fill up at rebel-held wells, which produce a light crude that can be burned without refining, though the result is dense smoke. Some farmers insist the unrefined crude can be used to power farm equipment, though it seems primarily to be used for heat….<\/p>\n

Among the groups profiting from the wells are Jabhat al Nusra, whose members have won admiration from some Syrians for their effectiveness as fighters against the government while inspiring fear and suspicion in others because of their calls for a Syrian state based on Islamic law and their alleged links to al Qaida.<\/p>\n

Rebels have also said they are planning a push into Hasaka province to the north, the country\u2019s other major source of crude oil.<\/p>\n

Abu Mohamed said that two of the three main fields around Deir al Zour \u2013 the captured fields are known as al Warde and Taim \u2013 are under rebel control, and that rebels would capture the third, Sheikh Omar, after they found engineers who could operate the wells.<\/p>\n

Rebels said locating engineers had been a challenge because most of the people who were employed in the oil sector in Syria were Alawites, the religious minority to which President Bashar Assad belongs and who make up about 10 percent of Syria\u2019s population. Virtually all of the armed rebels in Syria are Sunni Muslims, who make up the majority of the country\u2019s population. A main rebel grievance is that the country\u2019s political, economic and military elites have been dominated by Alawites for decades.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It appears the antagonism between Kurds and Islamist FSA <\/a>fighters is heating up. Nearly 40 dead from fighting in Ras Al-Ain, is indicative of a hot firefight.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jihadist rebels in standoff with Syria Kurds: NGO<\/a>
\nThursday, 22 November 2012<\/p>\n

\n

\"The<\/p>\n

\n
\n
The Turkey-backed rebels of the Free Syrian Army accuse the Democratic Union Party (PYD) of having links to the PKK, which has been fighting for self-rule just across the border in southeastern Turkey since 1984, and charge that it is in cahoots with the government of President Bashar al-Assad.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

By AFP
\nReuters<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

Hundreds of Kurdish militiamen massed in the Syrian border town of Ras al-Ain on Thursday in a mounting standoff with mainly jihadist Arab-led rebels who had seized much of the town from government forces, a watchdog said.<\/p>\n

It was the latest in a string of largely peaceful drives for control of mainly Kurdish inhabited areas of the northeast and northwest that neighboring Turkey fears has given succor to the rebel Kurdistan Workers\u2019 Party (PKK) it has been fighting for nearly three decades.<\/p>\n

The Turkey-backed rebels of the Free Syrian Army accuse the Democratic Union Party (PYD) of having links to the PKK, which has been fighting for self-rule just across the border in southeastern Turkey since 1984, and charge that it is in cahoots with the government of President Bashar al-Assad.<\/p>\n

The PYD insists its fighters are entirely Syrian but Washington has backed Ankara in insisting that Syria will not be allowed to become a rear base for the PKK in the face of the 20-month uprising against Assad’s iron-fisted rule.<\/p>\n

The standoff between the Kurds and the Arab-led rebels — most of whom the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said were drawn from hardline Islamists opposed to the new opposition coalition recognized some Arab and Western states — highlighted a growing dilemma for the rebels’ supporters.<\/p>\n

Some 200 fighters from the Al-Qaeda loyalist Al-Nusra Front and 100 from the allied Ghuraba al-Sham advanced on Ras al-Ain, backed by three tanks they had captured from the Syrian army, the Observatory said.<\/p>\n

They were faced by 400 Kurdish militiamen in the northeastern town which has already been largely deserted by its residents, thousands of whom have poured across the border into Turkey, the Britain-based watchdog and residents said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Youth Bulges and the Social Conditions of Rebellion<\/a>
\nBy: Jack A. Goldstone | Feature<\/p>\n

Commentary on generational conflict and the radicalism of youth goes back at least as far as the ancient Greeks. Such conflict is probably always present to some degree in every family and every generation. Yet the coalescence of individual youthful impatience with the ways of the older generation into social movements of rebellion or revolution is something that happens more rarely and only when certain economic, political and social conditions prevail.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

Maloula Journal
\nMountaintop Town Is a Diverse Haven From Syria\u2019s Horrors<\/a>
\nBy JANINE DI GIOVANNI, New York Times, November 21, 2012<\/p>\n

\n

MALOULA, Syria \u2014 In a country clouded by conflict, where neighbors and families are now divided by sectarian hatred, this mountaintop town renowned for its spiritual healing qualities and restorative air is an oasis of tolerance. Residents of the ancient and mainly Christian town \u2014 one of the last places where Western Aramaic, the language of Jesus Christ, is still spoken \u2014 vowed at the beginning of the Syrian conflict 20 months ago not to succumb to sectarianism and be dragged into the chaos….<\/p>\n

Mahmoud Diab, the Sunni imam of the town, said: \u201cEarly on in this war, I met with the main religious leaders in the community: the bishop and the mother superior of the main convent. We decided that even if the mountains around us were exploding with fighting, we would not go to war.\u201d<\/p>\n

Born and raised in Maloula, Mr. Diab, who is also in Syria\u2019s Parliament, sat in the courtyard of his mosque, shadowed by olive and poplar trees and a fading poster of Syria\u2019s president, Bashar al-Assad, whom he supports. \u201cIt\u2019s a sectarian war, in politics, it\u2019s another name,\u201d he said with a shrug. \u201cBut the fact is, there is no war here in Maloula. Here, we all know each other.\u201d….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Government forces bombarded<\/a> a local shift hospital in Aleppo, Sha\u2019ar neighborhood, killing many. (video)<\/p>\n

In Syria, An Act Of Reconciliation Stirs Fierce Debate<\/a>
\nby Deborah Amos<\/a>,

\"Supporters<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n

Supporters of President Bashar Assad speak with U.N. monitors who were arriving in the town in May. The monitors have since left.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

After 20 months of violence in Syria, acts of reconciliation are scarce.<\/p>\n

When one took place earlier this month in the town of Tel Kalakh, near the border with Lebanon, it touched off a fierce debate.<\/p>\n

The man at the center is Ahmad Munir Muhammed, the governor of Homs, who has long been known as a loyalist of embattled President Bashar Assad.<\/p>\n

However, Muhammed made an official visit to Tel Kalakh, where the majority of neighborhoods are controlled by the rebels.<\/p>\n

With the rebels guaranteeing his safety, the governor drove into Tel Kalakh in early November to see a city where revolutionary flags flutter from most mosques. He was reportedly shocked by the devastation from army bombardments and paramilitary attacks on this border town.<\/p>\n

His visit was approved by the rebel commander of Tel Kalakh, Abdul Rathman Wallo. The men were even photographed together.<\/p>\n

Tangible benefits followed. The Syrian Red Crescent delivered humanitarian aid to the besieged civilians. More than a dozen Syrian soldiers who had defected, men wanted by the Syrian regime and some of them seriously wounded, were allowed to slip across the border to Lebanon for medical treatment.<\/p>\n

Media Reports Ignite A Debate<\/strong><\/p>\n

Syrian state TV covered the event and reported the governor’s promise to resume “all public services to guarantee the return of the families affected by terrorism.” State television also declared this reconciliation a victory over “terrorists” who tried “to sabotage and make [Tel Kalakh] a lifeless city.”<\/p>\n

The Syrian regime refers to all armed groups as “terrorists.” But no amount of propaganda could erase the image of the governor holding cordial talks with the “terrorists.”<\/p>\n

The details of the event were also recounted in As-Safir,<\/em> a Lebanese newspaper, which described the events as a “surprising scene.” The governor was quoted as saying he was “putting an end to Syrian bloodshed” and would take similar steps in all the towns under his authority.<\/p>\n

So how was the visit viewed elsewhere in the country? The competing narratives began as soon as the visit became public.<\/p>\n

The governor “shook hands with murderers,” screamed the pro-government media, accusing him of nothing less than embracing al-Qaida in Syria. He “surrendered” Tel Kalakh, according to those who consider any recognition of the Sunni rebels an existential danger to Assad’s rule and to the surrounding Alawite villages. The reaction shows the difficulty of any negotiated settlement to end the crisis.<\/p>\n

But this unusual meeting also appears to be recognition of reality.<\/p>\n

“Life must go on. They are pressed by the reality on the ground,” says a former Syrian government official who spoke on condition on anonymity because of the sensitivity of the meeting.<\/p>\n

The rebels of Tel Kalakh took up arms after peaceful protesters were targeted by the security police and the army, the former official said.<\/p>\n

In May 2011, at least 40 civilians were killed when police opened fire and soldiers blasted the town with tank-mounted machine guns. Hundreds more were arrested.<\/p>\n

Within days, almost half the Sunni Muslim population had fled over the river frontier into Lebanon. The Syrian regime stepped up the retribution with relentless bombardments, but the village did not change its mind. It continued to support the rebels.<\/p>\n

The rebels maintain a strong presence in Tel Kalakh, though the damage is massive….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Turkey Finds It Is Sidelined as Broker in Mideast<\/a>
\nBy Tim Arango | The New York Times<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cTurkey\u2019s new foreign policy has but one premise, to become a regional actor,\u201d said Soner Cagaptay, a Turkey expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy<\/a>. \u201cTo this end, Ankara needs to have persuasive power on all countries of the region. In the past decade, Ankara has won that power with the Arabs but lost it with the Israelis.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Syria: Rebels shut down key government supply lines Tom A. Peter | The Christian Science Monitor | Nov 20, 2012 After months of fighting, Syrian opposition forces in Aleppo say that in the past week they\u2019ve captured several critical areas from government forces that may soon give them the upper hand in northern Syria. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[96],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-syria-revolution-2011"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nWill Assad Soon Abandon the North to Rebel Control? - Syria Comment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/will-assad-soon-abandon-the-north-to-rebel-control\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will Assad Soon Abandon the North to Rebel Control? - Syria Comment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Syria: Rebels shut down key government supply lines Tom A. 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