{"id":15241,"date":"2012-07-08T11:49:20","date_gmt":"2012-07-08T15:49:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=15241"},"modified":"2012-07-09T00:43:02","modified_gmt":"2012-07-09T04:43:02","slug":"news-round-up-july-8-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/news-round-up-july-8-2012\/","title":{"rendered":"News Round Up (July 8, 2012)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Syrian General Defects, Heads To France As Assad’s Opponents Meet There<\/a>
\nNPR – Heard on All Things Considered
\nListen<\/a><\/p>\n

Transcript<\/a><\/p>\n

July 6, 2012 – ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Syrians Trying to Get into Lebanon July 8, 2012 (sent by a friend)<\/p>\n

More now on that defection of a Syrian general. Not just any general, but Brigadier General Manaf Tlass. He’s the son of a former Syrian defense minister, Mustafa Tlass. It’s a Sunni Muslim family and one that is close to the ruling Assad family.<\/p>\n

How important is this? Well, we’re going to ask Professor Joshua Landis, who’s a Syria expert who directs the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. He’s joining us from Norman.<\/p>\n

Welcome back to the program.<\/p>\n

JOSHUA LANDIS: Good to be with you, Robert.<\/p>\n

SIEGEL: What does it say here that Brigadier General Manaf Tlass has defected?<\/p>\n

LANDIS: It’s very important. The Tlass family is a keystone of the Sunni Alawite alliance that’s been the bedrock of this regime for 40 years. The fact that they have bailed out says that this regime is falling apart and the essential alliances are falling apart. Increasingly, this struggle is becoming one of sectarian communities, the Alawites against the Sunnis.<\/p>\n

In the beginning, this was – it seemed like – angry young men from the countryside. The Sunnis were low class. They were from rural districts. They had nothing to lose. For a long time, everybody has been saying, where’s the Sunni elite? How come they’re not defecting? Well, here is, you know, Mr. Sunni elite defecting.<\/p>\n

SIEGEL: Now, there is a declaration of defection that’s posted on your website. You say it’s impossible to verify, but it looks reasonable. And, in it, Tlass says, I call for all my comrades in the armed forces, whatever their rank, who are dragged into this fight against their fellow Syrians and against their own ideas to stop supporting this regime. Would you expect others to follow him?<\/p>\n

LANDIS: I do. I think that this sends a signal that Bashar al-Assad doesn’t have the confidence of his top generals. The place is falling apart. Everybody’s going to begin looking for the exit. The problem is that Manaf Tlass is a man of great wealth. His family has got power. He can take a golden parachute and land in Paris. He’s fine. Most generals in the Syrian army don’t have much money. They don’t have bodyguards. They don’t have a way out. They can’t get their families out and Manaf is able to get his wife out. His brother and father got out before him. His sister is out. His son, we believe, was at AUB, the American University in Beirut. He has been able to really manage this exit very gracefully.<\/p>\n

SIEGEL: Manaf Tlass also wrote in that declaration of defection, I was – I’m quoting from the translation – “progressively dismissed from my place of duty in the armed forces.” That suggests that his misgivings about what the regime was doing were known to his superiors and it implies that there is at least some kind of debate that’s been going on among senior officers, doesn’t it?<\/p>\n

LANDIS: It does. And friends who’ve recently been with him in Damascus, had dinner with him, say he that he was very bitter. He had been given the task of trying to bring Harasta and Duma, two neighborhoods of Damascus in the suburbs that had led this revolutionary process to heal. And he had gone out to the opposition. He talked with them. He got them to back off, but he also negotiated this and agreed that the regime would back off.<\/p>\n

The regime center said, we’re not going to do it this way. They came down like a ton of bricks, breaking heads and we’ve seen the violence that’s ensued. And, in a sense, the people like Tlass, who were looking for a softer landing for the regime, got pushed aside. And he was sidelined. That’s the word and that’s certainly the word he’s putting out and bitter about it.<\/p>\n

SIEGEL: Professor Landis, would Manaf Tlass strike Syrian opposition forces as either a possible leader of their cause or a transitional leader or is he too deeply associated with the old regime to be a credible leader of a new one?<\/p>\n

LANDIS: You know, the opposition, I’m sure, are all celebrating. This is an important crack in the regime, but there is going to be tons of bitterness against him. This family has been an architect of this regime. They’re not going to embrace him.<\/p>\n

There are others. Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam, who defected in 2005 and joined the Muslim Brotherhood. That fell apart. And there’s Rifaat al-Assad, the uncle of the present president of Syria, who is also in Paris, but none of them have been embraced by the opposition. In fact, they’ve been forbidden to come to opposition meetings, so I think the Tlass family, although people will be very happy to see the regime crumbling, they’re going to have a very hard time ingratiating themselves with the opposition.<\/p>\n

SIEGEL: Professor Landis, thanks for talking with us once again.<\/p>\n

LANDIS: Well, it’s my pleasure. Thank you.<\/p>\n

SIEGEL: Joshua Landis, who directs the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.<\/p>\n

Clinton: Assad’s fall is certain<\/strong>
\n2012-07-06 UPI<\/p>\n

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton welcomed reports Friday that a high-level general had defected from Syria.<\/p>\n

Clinton: With more defections, Syrian regime’s ‘days are numbered’<\/a> – CNN<\/p>\n

Why Russia Supports Syria<\/a> – New York Times<\/p>\n

Report in Arabic about FSA fighters in Turkey<\/a> – how they cross the border and fight. Reporter interviews (video) FSA sharpshooter who explains how he shoots at anyone from certain Idlib border villages because they are “all regime loyalists” .<\/p>\n

A Young Syrian\u2019s Evolution From a Carefree Tour Guide to a Revolutionary<\/a>
\nBy ANNE BARNARD: July 7, 2012 – New York Times<\/p>\n

… Abu Zeid and several friends took up arms after security officers shot demonstrators in Tadmur, the modern town near Palmyra. Now, alternately passionate and confused, Abu Zeid has only the dimmest idea of an endgame, swept up in a wave heading nowhere clear.<\/p>\n

He wavers, unsure whether joining the revolt was his life\u2019s proudest moment or its ruin \u2014 or both.<\/p>\n

His exploits, sometimes more Keystone Kops than Che Guevara, left him feeling empowered but morally conflicted. He stole money and weapons, something he struggles to justify to himself. He endangered his neighbors, beat up an informer and narrowly escaped a raid that killed some of his friends after one drew attention to their hide-out by getting stuck in an elevator. Even his beloved camel ended up dead.<\/p>\n

Now he is a jobless fugitive in a country bordering Syria, heartsick for a life in which, he said, \u201cI felt like a king in my own way.<\/p>\n

Like someone who grew up near the sea and is drawn to water, Abu Zeid spends hours visiting ancient ruins, quizzing people about his new country\u2019s tourist industry. He worries that unrest will harm his family, or Palmyra\u2019s antiquities. One moment he vows to go back and fight; the next he disavows violence.<\/p>\n

\u201cI hate my life this way,\u201d he told a friend in a recent message….. In a recent meeting, he and one fellow fighter spoke little about democracy, offering no opinion on who or what should replace Mr. Assad. They said they acted in solidarity with the dead, and \u201cfor dignity.\u201d … Recently, Abu Zeid received a French visa. He will be safe in his girlfriend\u2019s mountain village, but he is vaulting further into the unknown.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Manaf Tlas: Syrian regime \u2018taking country to Hell\u2019<\/a><\/div>\n
Posted: 06 Jul 2012<\/div>\n
\n
BBC News reports: Sources close to Brigadier General Manaf Tlas, who met him days before he deserted, told the BBC he was very angry about what was happening in Syria and accused the regime of \u201ctaking the country to Hell\u201d. \u201cIf I were him, I would have done an [former Turkish leader and political reformer […]<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n

Newsweek: Champagne Flows While Syria Burns<\/a>
\n2012-07-09<\/p>\n

By the pool, glistening, oiled, and muscular bodies gyrated to a juiced-up version of Adele\u2019s \u201cSomeone Like You.\u201d Atop huge speakers, a Russian dancer swayed suggestively in front of the young, beautiful Syrian set drinking imported Lebanese ….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Considering a Palace Coup in Syria<\/strong>
\nStratfor –\u00a0 July 5, 2012 |<\/p>\n

Summary<\/strong>: Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s regime has maintained its hold on power amid escalating violence and international criticism over the past year. However, pressure on the regime could eventually increase to a point that other members of the inner circle may attempt to supplant the al Assad clan. This small group of elites could even receive backing from Syria’s allies, Russia and Iran. While such a coup scenario appears unlikely at present, the threats the al Assad clan faces from within the regime are at least as serious as the threats from external powers or the opposition.<\/p>\n

Analysis: <\/strong>Though the al Assad family is the public face of the Syrian regime and controls some of its most important positions, the regime also comprises other Alawites as well as Christians, Druze, other religious minorities and members of the country’s Sunni majority. This inner circle includes Syria’s most powerful and experienced political, military and civilian leaders, and these individuals view their own survival as tied to the fate of the regime. However, if al Assad began to lose his ability to hold together the disparate elements that form the Syrian regime, a group of regime elites could try to stage a palace coup and forcibly remove the family from power.<\/p>\n

Another potential scenario involves coordination with external parties, likely Iran and Russia, both of which have deep intelligence networks in Syria. Although Iran and Russia provide significant financial and military backing for al Assad and the Syrian regime, they have contingency plans for a new regime if a power transfer becomes necessary. The imperative for these allies is not to keep the al Assad clan in power but to maintain a government in Syria that will remain friendly to their interests and does not deviate too far from the status quo.<\/p>\n

The ability of Syria’s allies to engineer a coup is questionable. Moreover, a coup is unlikely at present because the regime does not show external signs of cracking and still possesses a largely united military and intelligence apparatus. However, if the situation calls for such action, Iran and Russia will work to maintain the overall structure of the regime. This could be pursued by brokering an official power transfer between al Assad and other top members of the regime, similar to the power transfer in Yemen. Because al Assad clan members are at the core of the president’s inner circle, his close family would likely not be welcome to join the putative new government.<\/p>\n

If al Assad were removed from the inside with or without foreign backing, key Sunni figures and allied minorities in the current regime would likely take over leadership. A more inclusive and diverse regime could use its sectarian composition to quell some of the opposition while still maintaining the overall regime structure and avoiding a power vacuum that could lead to greater instability.<\/p>\n

Of the minority inner circle members, some of the most prominent include the heads of Syria’s four intelligence agencies: Jamil Hassan, Abdel-Fatah Qudsiyeh, Ali Mamlouk and Muhammad Deeb Zaitoon. Aside from these intelligence leaders, an important minority leader to watch is Hisham Bakhtiar, a Shi’i in charge of the National Security Council who serves as a security and intelligence adviser to al Assad.<\/p>\n

Prominent Sunni figures who could play a role in a post-al Assad government include Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar, commander of the elite Republican Guard forces Manaf Tlas, army Chief of Staff Fahd Jasem al-Farij and Assistant Regional Secretary of the Baath Arab Socialist Party Muhammad Said Bukhaytan.<\/p>\n

Profiled below are figures with experience in managing the security and intelligence affairs of the state, and all except Bashar al Assad’s close relatives could emerge as members of a new regime in the event of a palace coup or negotiated power transfer.<\/p>\n

Minority Members of al Assad’s Inner Circle<\/strong><\/p>\n

Deputy Defense Minister Gen. Assef Shawkat (Alawite)<\/p>\n