{"id":148,"date":"2007-01-14T20:44:32","date_gmt":"2007-01-14T20:44:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=148"},"modified":"2007-01-15T18:40:37","modified_gmt":"2007-01-15T18:40:37","slug":"what-is-new-about-bushs-new-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/what-is-new-about-bushs-new-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"What is New about Bush’s New Strategy?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The White House Friday<\/a> took the unusual step of dismissing what it called a "rumor and urban legend" that the United States was gearing up for military action against Iran or Syria. <\/p>\n

Well it should. President Bush's speech announcing his new Iraq strategy and troop surge caused not only bloggers to sound the alarm, but also Democratic Senator Biden and Republican Senator Hagel. Bush's statement that "We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq." <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Anniversary of the Madrid conference for peace in the Mid East, 1991<\/p>\n

Many are anxious that the real message tucked into President Bush's announcement of a troop surge was the threat to attack both Iran and Syria for supporting anti-American militias in Iraq. The reason for this suspicion is twofold. First the small surge in troops does not signify a new strategy; rather, it is a continuation of the "hold the course" policy Bush has been pursuing in Iraq from the beginning. The small increase in troops will hardly counterbalance the surge in violence Iraq has been witnessing. This leads us to conclude that the "surge" proposal's real intent was to kill the Baker-Hamilton recommendation of pursuing an orderly retreat from Iraq. Bush dressed the surge up as a new policy – one that recognized America was failing. The problem is that the surge cannot possible change the momentum of deterioration in Iraq by itself. This is why skeptics look elsewhere for some real meat in Bush's victory plan. We cannot believe that administration planners are any more convinced than we are that the surge will reverse the steady deterioration of government authority in Iraq.<\/p>\n

The second reason to believe the "newness" in Bush's plan is not to be found within Iraq's troubled boarders, but outside them is his troubling support for proxies in the broader Middle East. The White House has been broadening the war's scope by building up proxies elsewhere. As Patrick Seale writes in al-Hayat<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\n

Bush is still intent on pursuing his bankrupt 'victory strategy' – a doomed enterprise in which more lives and much treasure will be thrown away.<\/p>\n

But that is not the end of Bush's mischief. Driven by such neo-conservative hawks as Eliott Abrams at the National Security Council, the U.S. is seeking to destabilize Hizballah in Lebanon – in effect, to complete the job Israel failed to do last summer. To achieve this goal, the U.S. has been arming the Internal Security Forces of the Seniora government and has put great pressure on General Michel Aoun, the Christian leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, to break with Hizballah.<\/p>\n

The U.S. seems equally determined to destroy the Palestinian resistance movement Hamas by supplying arms, training and tens of millions of dollars to its Fatah rival. Egypt and Jordan have also been roped in to supply thousands of rifles and millions of rounds of ammunition to Fatah forces loyal to the Palestinian Authority President, Mahmud Abbas. This appears to be another covert program conceived by Eliott Abrams and implemented on the ground by David Welsh, a senior State Department official.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

We also witnessed the support for an Ethiopian proxy to bring down the Islamic Court regime in Somalia under the presumption that it was al-Qaida. Sacrificing political stability in Somalia for three al-Qaida operatives is terrible math. Even more troubling is the continued escalation toward Iran. Beefing up Gulf defenses by sending additional battle ships to the region, leaked Israeli plans to use nuclear bunker busters against Iran's facilities, and promises to provide Patriot missiles to the Arab Gulf states all suggest that Bush is expanding the battle field in the hope that US fortunes in Iraq will be reversed if Washington can claim victory elsewhere. The problem with this strategy is that it builds on the erroneous presumption that the US is in a war against "evil." Rather than disaggregating struggles in Palestine, the Horn of Africa, Lebanon, Iran, Afghanistan, and Iraq in order to deal with each separately, Washington is stubbornly gluing them together in one super war on radical Islam. We are pretending they are all directed by al-Qaida and a nebulous enemy of freedom and liberty. This is not the enemy that exists. There is no command central. Moreover, we cannot destroy an idea with firepower. By pursuing this false war with greater determination, the US is ensuring failure with greater determination.<\/p>\n

To make matters worse, the Iraqi government gives few signs that it views the region in the same light that Washington does or that it is not pursuing policies completely contradictory to those of Washington.<\/p>\n

Rather than snubbing Syria, Iraq's president Talabani is in Syria today with a delegation that includes Interior Minister Jawad Bolani, Trade Minister Abdel Falah Al Sudani, Water Resources Minister Abdel Latif Rashid and national security advisor Muwaffaq Al Rubaie. Talabani said<\/a>: "The aim of the visit is to evaluate and strengthen mutual relations for the benefit of both the countries." <\/p>\n

Rather than supporting the US attack on the Iranian consulate in Irbil, Iraqi government officials condemned it. Nouri Talabani<\/a>, a member of the parliament in Kurdistan, said the arrests of the Iranians "is an illegal act and if such an act took place in another country there would have been grave consequences." Cheney<\/a> and Hadley<\/a> have been defending the raid vigorously.<\/p>\n

Most importantly, PM Maliki has given no sign that he will attack Sadr's army. No clear commitment from Prime Minister Maliki has been given that he will approve and support a joint effort by the Iraqi and American armed forces to disband and neutralize all the sectarian\/ethnic militias.  When asked bluntly if such a campaign would include joint action against Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army (including a house-by-house cleansing of Sadr City, for example), the answers from both US and Iraqi spokespersons in the past 48 hours has been confusing and often contradictory. <\/p>\n

A number of commentators on this site insist that Bush does not intend further confrontation but is looking for dialogue. The tough talk they say is only posturing to improve the US's bargaining position. Bush recognizes that he must retreat and compromise, they say. I wish I could buy this interpretation. I am not so sanguine.<\/p>\n

Neither is Tony Karon of Rootless Cosmopolitan<\/a>, who writes: <\/p>\n

\n

I wouldn’t bet on the collective strategic wisdom of Cheney-Rice and Khamenei-Larijani-Ahmedinajad combining to avoid a confrontation. And if the U.S. is raising the stakes, you can reliably expect Iran to do the same, probably starting in Iraq.<\/p>\n

Critics are right to label President Bush’s new Iraq plan an “escalation,” but what was most clear from his speech announcing it<\/a> is that the object of this escalation is not Iraq, but Iran.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Others see the indications of negotiations as posturing in order improve America's ability to strike Iran.<\/p>\n

Clayton E. Swisher,<\/strong> in his article, "Neutralizing Palestine, to better focus on Iran<\/a>" argues convincingly that Rice's stated efforts at peace in Palestine are directed with an eye toward Iran and are not genuine.<\/span> <\/p>\n

Perhaps the best article along these lines is by Rosa Brooks in the LA Times<\/a>, <\/p>\n

\n

"Bush and the GOP are shifting tactics just like Nixon did with Vietnam — to win the next election, not the war…. It's clear that Bush knows perfectly well there's no possibility of "winning" anymore, so apparently he's seeking in Iraq exactly what Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger sought in Vietnam before the 1972 election: a face-saving "decent interval" before the virtually inevitable collapse of the U.S.-backed government."<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Steve Clemons of <\/strong>Washington Note<\/em> has been very good on laying out the new aggressiveness of the Bush policy. Read his, A "SECRET WAR" AGAINST SYRIA AND IRAN?:<\/a> Friday, January 12, 2007.<\/p>\n

\n

Washington intelligence, military and foreign policy circles are abuzz today with speculation that the President, yesterday or in recent days, sent a secret Executive Order to the Secretary of Defense and to the Director of the CIA to launch military operations against Syria and Iran. The President may have started a new secret, informal war against Syria and Iran without the consent of Congress or any broad discussion with the country. …<\/p>\n

UPDATE<\/strong>: This exchange today in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee between Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden and Senator Chuck Hagel with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

SEN. BIDEN:<\/strong> Secretary Rice, do you believe the president has the constitutional authority to pursue across the border into Iraq (sic\/Iran) or Syria, the networks in those countries? <\/p>\n

SEC. RICE:<\/strong> Well, Mr. Chairman, I think I would not like to speculate on the president's constitutional authority or to try and say anything that certainly would abridge his constitutional authority, which is broad as commander in chief. <\/p>\n

I do think that everyone will understand that — the American people and I assume the Congress expect the president to do what is necessary to protect our forces. <\/p>\n

SEN. BIDEN:<\/strong> Madame Secretary, I just want to make it clear, speaking for myself, that if the preident concluded he had to invade Iran or Iraq in pursuit of these — or Syria — in pursuit of these networks, I believe the present authorization granted the president to use force in Iraq does not cover that, and he does need congressional authority to do that. I just want to set that marker. -The Washington Note<\/p>\n

Here are additional articles of interest:<\/p>\n

Bush is Fueling a New Cold War<\/a> By: Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian
A fortnight ago the Ethiopians entered <\/span>Somalia to topple the Islamist forces who had just taken Mogadishu. Americans dislike that Islamist movement, fearing it has the makings of an African Taliban, so they backed the Ethiopians to take it out. According to Patrick Smith, the editor of Africa Confidential, the war on terror is fast becoming a cold war for the 21st century, with the US finding proxy allies to fight proxy enemies in faraway places.<\/p>\n

Bush plan rejects dialogue with Syria<\/a> <\/p>\n

There is a widespread feeling in the region that no concessions should be made to Syria," said al-Ani. "Many Arab states see Syria's ties with Iran to be harmful to their interests."<\/p>\n

Still, Syrians believe the day will come when their country is called upon to assume what they see as its legitimate role as a regional heavyweight.<\/p>\n

"We will just wait and wait," said Shueibi. "They will eventually come back to Syria."<\/p>\n

Officials publicly say the sole aim is to see a unified and stable Iraq. But Syria's offer of help in Iraq is not without its price.<\/p>\n

Syria in particular wants Washington to persuade Israel to resume negotiations on the return of the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau captured by Israel from Syria in 1967. The two nations held their last round of talks in 2000.<\/p>\n

Syria has made clear that it believes Washington can press Israel to return to negotiations. "There will never be any peace talks with Israel without Washington's green light and unequivocal blessing," al-Sharaa said this week.<\/p>\n

Sharon Warned Bush<\/a>
The Strategic Interest
Yossi Alpher | <\/span>Fri. Jan 12, 2007 – the Forward<\/p>\n

…. Sometime prior to March 2003, Sharon told Bush privately in no uncertain terms what he thought about the Iraq plan. Sharon’s words — revealed here for the first time — constituted a friendly but pointed warning to Bush. Sharon acknowledged that Saddam Hussein was an “acute threat” to the Middle East and that he believed Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction.<\/p>\n

Yet according to one knowledgeable source, Sharon nevertheless advised Bush not to occupy Iraq. According to another source — Danny Ayalon, who was Israel’s ambassador to the United States at the time of the Iraq invasion, and who sat in on the Bush-Sharon meetings — Sharon told Bush that Israel would not “push one way or another” regarding the Iraq scheme.<\/p>\n

According to both sources, Sharon warned Bush that if he insisted on occupying Iraq, he should at least abandon his plan to implant democracy in this part of the world. “In terms of culture and tradition, the Arab world is not built for democratization,” Ayalon recalls Sharon advising.<\/p>\n

Be sure, Sharon added, not to go into Iraq without a viable exit strategy. And ready a counter-insurgency strategy if you expect to rule Iraq, which will eventually have to be partitioned into its component parts. Finally, Sharon told Bush, please remember that you will conquer, occupy and leave, but we have to remain in this part of the world. Israel, he reminded the American president, does not wish to see its vital interests hurt by regional radicalization and the spillover of violence beyond Iraq’s borders.<\/p>\n

Sharon’s advice — reflecting a wealth of experience with Middle East issues that Bush lacked — was prescient. (Read more…<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Yedioth quoted Amin Gemayel<\/a>, the ex-President of <\/span>Lebanon, as saying that he hoped a peace deal between Israel and Lebanon would be possible in the future.  "Peace with Israel? I wish. I hope. But this is not the time from our point of view or from your point of view," he said. <\/p>\n

US: Some countries fear revealing intelligence secrets to Hariri probe<\/a><\/p>\n

Second thoughts about the Promised Land<\/a>: <\/span>Jan 11th 2007 | The Economist <\/p>\n

Jews all around the world are gradually ceasing to regard Israel as a focal point. As a result, many are re-examining what it means to be Jewish. Jews all around the world are gradually ceasing to regard Israel as a focal point. As a result, many are re-examining what it means to be Jewish<\/p>\n

Carter Center advisers resign in protest over former president's book: IHT<\/p>\n

Fourteen members of the 200-member Carter Center advisory board, who worked to build support for the human rights organization started by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and his wife, have resigned in protest over Carter's latest book.<\/p>\n

The resignations, announced Thursday, are the latest in a backlash against Carter's book "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid," which has drawn fire from Jewish groups, been attacked by fellow Democrats and led to the resignation last month of Kenneth Stein, a Carter Center fellow and a longtime Carter adviser.<\/p>\n

In their letter of resignation, the members of the Center's Board of Councilors wrote of Carter, "you have clearly abandoned your historic role of broker in favor of becoming an advocate for one side."<\/p>\n

Berman said the religious affiliation of the resigning members, which include some prominent Jewish leaders in the Atlanta area, did not influence their decision.<\/p>\n

Rabbi Marvin Hier, dean of the Simon Wiesenthal Center in Los Angeles, said in a statement Thursday that "President Carter has only himself to blame" over the resignations because the book was "blatantly one-sided and unbecoming of a former President."<\/p>\n

Also Thursday, the Central Conference of American Rabbis, which represents nearly 2,000 Reform rabbis, said it would cancel its visit to the Carter Center in protest over the book when the group holds its convention in Atlanta in March.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Here are additional articles of interest:<\/p>\n

Bush is Fueling a New Cold War<\/a> By: Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian
A fortnight ago the Ethiopians entered <\/span>Somalia to topple the Islamist forces who had just taken Mogadishu. Americans dislike that Islamist movement, fearing it has the makings of an African Taliban, so they backed the Ethiopians to take it out. According to Patrick Smith, the editor of Africa Confidential, the war on terror is fast becoming a cold war for the 21st century, with the US finding proxy allies to fight proxy enemies in faraway places.<\/p>\n

Bush plan rejects dialogue with Syria<\/a> <\/p>\n

There is a widespread feeling in the region that no concessions should be made to Syria," said al-Ani. "Many Arab states see Syria's ties with Iran to be harmful to their interests."<\/p>\n

Still, Syrians believe the day will come when their country is called upon to assume what they see as its legitimate role as a regional heavyweight.<\/p>\n

"We will just wait and wait," said Shueibi. "They will eventually come back to Syria."<\/p>\n

Officials publicly say the sole aim is to see a unified and stable Iraq. But Syria's offer of help in Iraq is not without its price.<\/p>\n

Syria in particular wants Washington to persuade Israel to resume negotiations on the return of the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau captured by Israel from Syria in 1967. The two nations held their last round of talks in 2000.<\/p>\n

Syria has made clear that it believes Washington can press Israel to return to negotiations. "There will never be any peace talks with Israel without Washington's green light and unequivocal blessing," al-Sharaa said this week.<\/p>\n

Sharon Warned Bush<\/a>
The Strategic Interest
Yossi Alpher | <\/span>Fri. Jan 12, 2007 – the Forward<\/p>\n

…. Sometime prior to March 2003, Sharon told Bush privately in no uncertain terms what he thought about the Iraq plan. Sharon’s words — revealed here for the first time — constituted a friendly but pointed warning to Bush. Sharon acknowledged that Saddam Hussein was an “acute threat” to the Middle East and that he believed Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction.<\/p>\n

Yet according to one knowledgeable source, Sharon nevertheless advised Bush not to occupy Iraq. According to another source — Danny Ayalon, who was Israel’s ambassador to the United States at the time of the Iraq invasion, and who sat in on the Bush-Sharon meetings — Sharon told Bush that Israel would not “push one way or another” regarding the Iraq scheme.<\/p>\n

According to both sources, Sharon warned Bush that if he insisted on occupying Iraq, he should at least abandon his plan to implant democracy in this part of the world. “In terms of culture and tradition, the Arab world is not built for democratization,” Ayalon recalls Sharon advising.<\/p>\n

Be sure, Sharon added, not to go into Iraq without a viable exit strategy. And ready a counter-insurgency strategy if you expect to rule Iraq, which will eventually have to be partitioned into its component parts. Finally, Sharon told Bush, please remember that you will conquer, occupy and leave, but we have to remain in this part of the world. Israel, he reminded the American president, does not wish to see its vital interests hurt by regional radicalization and the spillover of violence beyond Iraq’s borders.<\/p>\n

Sharon’s advice — reflecting a wealth of experience with Middle East issues that Bush lacked — was prescient. (Read more…<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Yedioth quoted Amin Gemayel<\/a>, the ex-President of <\/span>Lebanon, as saying that he hoped a peace deal between Israel and Lebanon would be possible in the future.  "Peace with Israel? I wish. I hope. But this is not the time from our point of view or from your point of view," he said. <\/p>\n

US: Some countries fear revealing intelligence secrets to Hariri probe<\/a><\/p>\n

Second thoughts about the Promised Land<\/a>: <\/span>Jan 11th 2007 | The Economist <\/p>\n

Jews all around the world are gradually ceasing to regard Israel as a focal point. As a result, many are re-examining what it means to be Jewish. Jews all around the world are gradually ceasing to regard Israel as a focal point. As a result, many are re-examining what it means to be Jewish<\/p>\n

Carter Center advisers resign in protest over former president's book: IHT<\/p>\n

Fourteen members of the 200-member Carter Center advisory board, who worked to build support for the human rights organization started by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and his wife, have resigned in protest over Carter's latest book.<\/p>\n

The resignations, announced Thursday, are the latest in a backlash against Carter's book "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid," which has drawn fire from Jewish groups, been attacked by fellow Democrats and led to the resignation last month of Kenneth Stein, a Carter Center fellow and a longtime Carter adviser.<\/p>\n

In their letter of resignation, the members of the Center's Board of Councilors wrote of Carter, "you have clearly abandoned your historic role of broker in favor of becoming an advocate for one side."<\/p>\n

Berman said the religious affiliation of the resigning members, which include some prominent Jewish leaders in the Atlanta area, did not influence their decision.<\/p>\n

Rabbi Marvin Hier, dean of the Simon Wiesenthal Center in Los Angeles, said in a statement Thursday that "President Carter has only himself to blame" over the resignations because the book was "blatantly one-sided and unbecoming of a former President. Also Thursday, the Central Conference of American Rabbis, which represents nearly 2,000 Reform rabbis, said it would cancel its visit to the Carter Center in protest over the book when the group holds its convention in Atlanta in March.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The White House Friday took the unusual step of dismissing what it called a "rumor and urban legend" that the United States was gearing up for military action against Iran or Syria.  Well it should. President Bush's speech announcing his new Iraq strategy and troop surge caused not only bloggers to sound the alarm, but […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[30,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iraq","category-us"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat is New about Bush's New Strategy? - Syria Comment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/what-is-new-about-bushs-new-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What is New about Bush's New Strategy? - Syria Comment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The White House Friday took the unusual step of dismissing what it called a "rumor and urban legend" that the United States was gearing up for military action against Iran or Syria.  Well it should. 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