{"id":14403,"date":"2012-04-18T22:20:33","date_gmt":"2012-04-19T02:20:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=14403"},"modified":"2012-04-21T10:12:52","modified_gmt":"2012-04-21T14:12:52","slug":"the-us-looks-for-a-more-muscular-response-to-syria-damascus-sells-gold-in-a-sign-of-poverty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/the-us-looks-for-a-more-muscular-response-to-syria-damascus-sells-gold-in-a-sign-of-poverty\/","title":{"rendered":"The US Looks for a More Muscular Response to Syria; Damascus Sells Gold in a Sign of Poverty"},"content":{"rendered":"

Syria seems to be trying to sell Gold from its reserves <\/a>in Dubai. A sign that it’s money is running low due to sanctions and revolt.<\/p>\n

The Obama administration insists<\/a> that it is about to make some important changes to its Syria policy. Everyone expects that it will assume greater leadership by helping to arm the opposition. So far Washington has raised the rhetorical bar while refusing action. Sanctions have been the most it is willing to offer. The other countries — Turkey, Saudi and France – have refused to take the lead. They want to see an American commitment before taking their hands out of the pockets.\u00a0 On the NSC, Steve Simon, who has not been keen on military involvement, seems to be making way for Derek Chollet, whose old boss was Anne-Marie Slaughter. She is for military intervention in Syria, as she made clear on the Charlie Rose Show that I appeared on with her, Fouad Ajami and Thomas Friedman<\/a>. Ajami makes the most compelling argument for a more active US role in embracing the “future” in Syria. Here is what Josh Rogin has to say about Chollet’s appointment in Obama searches for a \u2018Plan B\u2019 in Syria<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The new push includes adjustments in personnel handling the portfolio. Before March, National Security Council Director Steve Simon headed up the internal interagency process. Now, multiple officials confirm that NSC Senior Director for Strategy Derek Chollet has been added to the leadership of the Syria policy team and has been coordinating the interagency process for several weeks. Simon, Assistant Secretary of State Jeff Feltman, and State Dept. Special Advisor Fred Hof are still active on the Syria portfolio.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Clinton says Syria is at a \u201ccrucial turning point\u201d. She will be in Paris tomorrow to try to figure out what the Western states can do that won’t suck them into another Iraq, but that will show some teeth. Right now, Russia is calling the shots in Syria. Ironically, the last country we pushed Russia out of,\u00a0 because we demanded greater control over its affairs, was Afghanistan. Most American policy makers today would probably agree that Russian controlled Afghanistan was much better than what came after. Ammar Abdulhamid suggests <\/a>that Syria is more liberal and less Islamist than Afghanistan or even Egypt and Tunisia. He believes that US caution about the rise of Islamists in Syria is ill-founded. Amal al-Hanano hares<\/a> Abdulhamid’s determination to promote secular and pacifist Syrian interests.\u00a0 She is calling on secular Syrians to organize and counter-balance the Islamists.<\/p>\n

News Round Up<\/strong><\/p>\n

Syria Said to be Seeking Gold Sales From Reserves: Reuters Link<\/a>
\nBy John Irish and Amena Bakr<\/p>\n

PARIS\/DUBAI, April 18 (Reuters) – Syria is trying to sell gold reserves to raise revenue as Western and Arab sanctions targeting its central bank and oil exports begin to bite, diplomats and traders said.<\/p>\n

Western sanctions have halved Syria’s foreign exchange reserves from about $17 billion, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said on Tuesday after a meeting with about 60 nations aimed at coordinating measures against President Bashar al-Assad’s government.<\/p>\n

“Syria is selling its gold at rock bottom prices,” said a Western diplomatic source, declining to say where it was being sold.<\/p>\n

A second diplomatic source confirmed the information, adding that Damascus was looking to offload everything it could to raise cash, including currency reserves.<\/p>\n

On Feb. 27, the European Union agreed more sanctions including prohibiting trade in gold and other precious metals with Syrian state institutions, including the central bank.<\/p>\n

Two gold traders in the United Arab Emirates said the Syrian government had been offering gold at a discount, with one saying it was making offers at about 15 percent below the market price.<\/p>\n

The trader said Damascus was selling small volumes of around 20-30 kilos which were easier to offload, with offers being made through private accounts set up with free email providers……<\/p>\n

The World Gold Council estimates Syria had about 25.8 metric tonnes of gold as of February 2012, representing about 7.1 percent of its total reserves….The Syrian pound hit a record low on the black market in March of around 100 to the dollar, compared to 47 before the protests erupted, sharply raising the cost of imports…<\/p>\n

At Wednesday’s spot prices, Syria’s total gold reserves are worth around $1.36 billion. …<\/p>\n

“The most stunning, unsettling conclusion I drew from the leaders of the Free Syrian Army was that they have essentially got no help from anyone. They are literally running out of ammunition while Assad’s forces are being resupplied by Iran and Russia,” Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) told The Cable in an interview.<\/p>\n

Lieberman and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) spent their Senate recess on the Turkish side of the Turkey-Syria border, meeting with Turkish officials, FSA leaders, and refugees.<\/p>\n

“What they want us to do is to lead. They want us to lead the Friends of Syria, who have given them increasingly sympathetic rhetoric but not the wherewithal to defend themselves,” he said<\/p>\n

The Syrian internal opposition is buying weapons and ammunition on the black market at exorbitant prices and claims that large parts of the Syrian military are demoralized but are unwilling to break with the government until they see the opposition has real international support.<\/p>\n

“They are all waiting for the U.S. to say \u2018We’re in this,'” Lieberman said.<\/p>\n

There was at least one State Department official inside the McCain-Lieberman meeting with leaders of the FSA, Gen. Mustafa al-Sheikh and Col. Riad al-Asaad, two U.S. officials confirmed. The FSA leaders asked the United States to provide RPGs, anti-aircraft guns, and ammunition. The FSA leaders also said they have proof that the Assad regime is using helicopter gunships to attack civilians in the city of Idlib, as apparently shown in this YouTube video.<\/p>\n

Turkish officials told McCain and Lieberman that they were willing to let weapons flow over their borders and consider other more aggressive steps to help the internal Syrian opposition, but that they won’t do so unless Washington leads the way…..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Obama administration searches for a \u2018Plan B\u2019 in Syria<\/a>
\nPosted By Josh Rogin Wednesday, April 18, 2012 -Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

The White House is unhappy with the options it’s been given on Syria and is searching for a new strategy for removing President Bashar al-Assad, The Cable has learned.<\/p>\n

“There was a fundamental decision made at the highest level that we need a real Syria policy with more options for the president,” one administration official with knowledge of the internal deliberations said. “Our allies were coming back to us and saying \u2018What’s your next move?,’ and we were forced to admit we didn’t have one.”<\/p>\n

The new push includes adjustments in personnel handling the portfolio. Before March, National Security Council Director Steve Simon headed up the internal interagency process. Now, multiple officials confirm that NSC Senior Director for Strategy Derek Chollet<\/strong> has been added to the leadership of the Syria policy team and has been coordinating the interagency process for several weeks. Simon, Assistant Secretary of State Jeff Feltman, and State Dept. Special Advisor Fred Hof are still active on the Syria portfolio.<\/p>\n

Chollet, the former deputy to Anne-Marie Slaughter at the State Department’s Policy Planning shop, has also been nominated to be the next assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, replacing Sandy Vershbow, who is now deputy secretary general of NATO. Chollet has taken on the day-to-day management of the interagency process while he awaits confirmation.<\/p>\n

New options are now being considered internally, including another discussion of setting up buffer zones inside Syria, one administration official confirmed. The administration has also authorized direct contact with the internal Syrian opposition, including the Free Syrian Army (FSA), and at least one State Department official has met with the FSA’s nominal leaders in Turkey.<\/p>\n

The rethink comes eight months after Obama explicitly demanded the Syrian leader’s removal, saying, “The time has come for President Assad to step aside.”<\/p>\n

His administration is still struggling to come up with a way to make that call a reality…..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

UN monitors flee Syrian protest after gunfire<\/a>
\nBy BEN HUBBARD,<\/p>\n

BEIRUT (AP) \u2014 Syrian security forces opened fire Wednesday on anti-regime demonstrators surrounding the cars of a U.N. team meant to monitor a shaky cease-fire, sending the observers speeding off and protesters dashing for cover, according to activists and amateur videos.<\/p>\n

The fresh violence in a suburb of Damascus, the Syrian capital, provided the first public glimpse of the work of the small team struggling to reinforce the international community’s stumbling efforts to end 13 months of deadly conflict in Syria.<\/p>\n

The shooting, which wounded at least eight people, could also complicate the deployment of a larger U.N. mission to help a cease-fire take hold between President Bashar Assad’s forces and opposition fighters.<\/p>\n

The difficulties of the team’s mission was clear Wednesday during its visit to the suburb of Arbeen, just northeast of Damascus.<\/p>\n

The team did not announce its plans to visit the area, but a local activist said residents guessed they were coming when tanks posted throughout the area withdrew early Wednesday.<\/p>\n

People quickly drew up signs as well as a list of the 34 residents killed since the start of the uprising and information on the scores who have been detained, an Arbeen activist named Ahmed said via Skype. He declined to give his last name for fear of retribution.<\/p>\n

Amateur videos posted online showed hundreds of demonstrators crowding around at least three U.N. Land Cruisers, waving Syrian flags and chanting against the regime. In one video, a man with a microphone and huge speakers on the back of a pickup truck led the crowd in singing “Bashar, Bashar, we will not kneel!”<\/p>\n

A handwritten sign apparently taped by a demonstrator on one of the cars read, “The murderer keeps killing, the observers keep observing and the people keep up the revolution.”<\/p>\n

In another video, the protesters were walking down a boulevard surrounding the cars when a boom rang out, sending demonstrators scattering. Smoke rose in front of the crowd and the cars sped off, sirens blaring. In yet another video, protesters sprinted down side streets while gunfire is heard nearby.<\/p>\n

Ahmed, the local activist, said the group was marching toward a square where the government had posted plain clothes security offices called shabiha and government supporters holding a counter demonstration.<\/p>\n

“We started walking with the observers thinking that they’d protect us, but then the shabiha started shooting at us, even when the observers’ cars were at the front of the march,” he said.<\/p>\n

After the observers left, security cars drove through the area firing, injuring about 20 people, he said.<\/p>\n

“Once the committee was gone, there was no one else to see what they were doing,” he said.<\/p>\n

The team’s head, Col. Ahmed Himiche, declined to comment on the incident, saying the team would report only to the U.N.<\/p>\n

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said eight protesters were wounded in Arbeen.<\/p>\n

The group, which relies on an activist network in Syria, also said government forces shelled opposition areas in the provinces of Homs in central Syria and Idlib in the north.<\/p>\n

For its part, Syria’s state news agency said roadside bomb attacks in Idlib and Aleppo killed 10 security officers and one civilian. The incidents could not be independently verified. The Syrian government bars most media from working in the country…..<\/p>\n

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Syrian opposition forces of provoking the government’s backlash in order to thwart the cease-fire. He urged nations that have leverage with the opposition to force it to abide by cease-fire….<\/p>\n

“There must be a tough demand not to allow any provocations and respect the cease-fire,” Lavrov said….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Clinton Says Syria Measures to Be Discussed Tomorrow in Paris<\/strong>
\n2012-04-18 By Roxana Tiron<\/p>\n

April 18 (Bloomberg) — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she will attend a meeting in Paris tomorrow to dicuss with allies what further measures may be taken against the Syrian government and in support of the opposition movement. The \u201cad hoc group\u201d meeting will be led by French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, Clinton said, speaking to reporters today in Brussels.<\/p>\n

Syria is at a \u201ccrucial turning point\u201d at which the government either will abide by the UN-backed peace plan or face further sanctions, she said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Foreign Policy<\/p>\n

The ceasefire appears to have broken down, as levels of violence<\/a> remain high in several regions in Syria. Up to 70 people have been killed by heavy shelling in the Jourat al-Shayah, Qarabis, Bayada, and Khaldiya districts of Homs, areas that have remained out of government control. According to the Local Coordination Committees, clashes continued in Deraa and Aleppo, as well as in the Idlib province where government troops were accompanied by tanks and helicopters. The Syrian government has said it is willing to comply<\/a> with Kofi Annan’s six-point peace plan. However, the regime has only agreed to a small United Nations’ observer mission<\/a> of 250 monitors, and it refuses independent air support despite recommendations of U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon<\/a>, who said, “I think this is not enough, considering the current situation and considering the vastness of the country.” Meanwhile, the advance team of monitors has not yet been permitted to operate throughout the country as negotiations on a memorandum of understanding<\/a> between the Syrian government and the U.N. team have stalled.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The leading voice of the opposition talks to PJ Media about the state of the conflict.<\/a>: Syria\u2019s Revolution: An Interview with Ammar Abdulhamid
\nby Barry Rubin, April 17, 2012<\/p>\n

(Ammar Abdulhamid has been the most articulate and credible voice of the Syrian opposition and the movement to overthrow the current regime. Barry Rubin interviewed him to get a clearer view on what\u2019s going on in Syria and on what the future prospects are for the bloody conflict.)<\/p>\n

What should we know about the Syrian regime that we don\u2019t already know?<\/em><\/p>\n

That it is not reformable and that its key leaders can never be part of the solution.<\/p>\n

What are the causes of the uprising?<\/em><\/p>\n

Lack of developments when it comes to basic services and infrastructure along with increasing poverty, absence of any accountability on part of the leadership, the sense of impunity that corrupt officials on the local and national levels exhibit on a daily basis, the failure of President Bashar al-Assad to show himself as a true reformer, and his increasing involvement with the corrupt practices of his family and friends.<\/p>\n

Can you describe for us the Syrian opposition, both within the country and outside?<\/em><\/p>\n

We have two types of opposition: the traditional and the new. The traditional opposition is made of old parties and figures who have been around for decades, and the new one is made up of the activists who started and continue to lead the revolution.<\/p>\n

The arrogance of the traditional opposition and their inability to provide effective representation and guidance to the revolutionaries created a problem of mistrust between the two, and does not augur well for the ability of such coalitions as the Syrian National Council (SNC) to provide effective leadership either now or during the transitional period. The new opposition is pragmatic, goal-oriented, and open to new possibilities as far as relations with the outside are concerned, or how the state should be administered in the future. The traditional remains ideological, dominated mostly by Leftist and Islamist elements, and unable to be proactive or to come up with actual strategies and programs for effective communication and representation.<\/p>\n

So, the real dichotomy is between these two types of opposition groups, not between those inside the country and those outside.<\/p>\n

You have often been critical about the organization and strategy of the leading opposition groups. Can you tell us more about your view, and also provide a description of the main opposition organizations?<\/em><\/p>\n

Traditional opposition groups keep thinking along ideological lines, and they fail to listen to the protesters and their demands. They keep seeing leadership as a right rather than a responsibility. They keep confusing making policy with making pronouncements and confusing coming up with strategies with academic research. This is why they can never be effective leaders.<\/p>\n

For this, the international community needs to conduct outreach efforts to identify leaders and forces on the ground. They need to work with existing traditional opposition in order to make them better at the task of communicating with grassroots protesters and enablers of the new emerging leadership. Many believe that the regime will never negotiate its way out of power, but it seems the same applies for traditional opposition figures and parties. They will never accept giving their positions to the new emerging figures; they seem incapable of coming to terms with the failure of their ideologies at inspiring this mass moment.<\/p>\n

Many observers are concerned that the Syrian opposition might be dominated by Islamists who would institute an even worse government for Syria, at least in international terms. How would you respond to that view?<\/em><\/p>\n

There are Islamists, that\u2019s for sure. But Syria\u2019s ethnic makeup is simply too diverse to allow for the kind of dominance we saw in Egypt or Tunisia. However, since winning elections is about organization and not just demographics, and since Islamists are better organized and funded, there is definitely a need for domestic and international players concerned about Islamist influence to begin preparing themselves with all seriousness for the transitional period ahead.<\/p>\n

What is the strategy of the Assad regime in trying to survive?<\/em><\/p>\n

Transforming the crisis into a sectarian conflict; play on minority fears about the Sunni Arab majority in order to bring these minorities to the side of the regime or at least to neutralize them. Use overwhelming force and foster the expansion of pro-Assad militias and death squads to terrorize and punish the population of restive communities. Play on the fears of Western powers toward Islamists by trying to cast the revolutionaries as Salafist. Rely on support from Iran, Hezbollah, the Maliki government in Iraq, and Russia to keep the international community at bay and incapable of adopting strong policies toward the situation….<\/p>\n

Why should the world support the Syrian opposition\u2019s struggle?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Besides the geopolitical gain of weakening Iran\u2019s grip over the Middle East and containing its rise as a major source of instability there, there is the added humanitarian advantage of preventing a rapid balkanization of our troubled region. The Assads are driving the country and the region to the brink of implosion into warring ethnic enclaves. The world needs to stop them and to help the Syrians in their search for alternatives.<\/p>\n

What do you think is likely to happen in Syria?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Irrespective of my wishes, the inability of the Obama administration to move quickly on this matter has allowed for the situation to turn into a proxy war involving all major regional players as well as Russia and China. This is going to be a longer-term struggle and the humanitarian cost will be too high. I will keep up my activities meant to support the local resistance and empower the more pragmatic and representative elements to emerge as the true leaders of Syria down the road, but this will not be an easy task.<\/p>\n

We were let down by the leaders of the international community and the leaders of the traditional opposition, not to mention our intellectual elite, and it\u2019s clear by now that we have no true friends. Still, we have no choice but to soldier on, as we transform from a protest movement into a more complex resistance and liberation movement.<\/p>\n

(For more on Ammar Abdulhamid: he is a liberal Syrian pro-democracy activist whose anti-regime activities led to his exile in September 2005. He currently lives in the United States. He is the founder of the Tharwa Foundation, a nonprofit organization dedicated to democracy promotion, and is a fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He writes Syrian Revolution Digest<\/a>, a blog dedicated to following events and monitoring trends related to the Syrian Revolution.)<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Any Given Friday<\/a>
\nHow a battle over a Facebook page became a war for the soul of the Syrian revolution.
\nBY AMAL HANANO | APRIL 18, 2012<\/p>\n

….Last week, before the Facebook polling closed for the name of the April 13 protests — the day after the U.N. ceasefire deadline, the day in which solidarity was key — one name was in the lead: the Friday of the Armies of Islam. Yet another divisive (and completely off message) choice. This time, however, peaceful activists were ready to take action and fight back in a battle for the Friday name.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, April 11, media activists on Facebook and Twitter began a campaign to “rock the vote” for Friday’s name. They advocated the secular, inclusive choice, “A Revolution for all Syrians.” It was an intense campaign. Usually around 8,000 votes are cast each week, but last week there were more than 30,000. It was as much a battle between Islamic sentiment and secular inclusiveness as it was a struggle between those dedicated to solely an armed resistance, and those who still valued the power of nonviolent activism. ….
\nThe gap between the two names slowly narrowed, and eventually the message of unity won by almost 2,000 votes. This small but significant victory unleashed palpable excitement among Syria’s online activists: There was a sense that they had been heard and gained control of the revolution’s message, at least for the moment. It was a needed boost of energy to a group of worn-out activists and, more importantly, it proved that a revolution within the revolution was not only possible but necessary.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

ASSAD MUST BE FORCED TO ALLOW PEACEFUL ASSEMBLY<\/a>
\nBy Andrew J. Tabler
\nApril 18, 2012<\/p>\n

…Syrians are afraid to express their demands as part of the “Syrian-led political transition to a democratic, pluralist system” and have demonstrated in lesser numbers than expected over the past week. Even if a viable ceasefire can eventually be brokered, protests and other forms of civil resistance will be the key means to judge what the people want going forward….\u00a0 severely limiting the people’s ability to use civil resistance to make Assad “step aside” — the stated goal of President Obama. The regime has had a far harder time dealing with civil resistance over the past year than armed resistance. Assad’s actions thus far indicate that he wants to use the Annan plan to grind down not only the armed opposition, but the overall protest movement as a whole….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

WSJ RT Brussels: EU Goes Silent On Assad Departure<\/a>
\n2012-04-18 By Laurence Norman<\/p>\n

….Last August, to considerable fanfare, Washington and Brussels made a joint declaration on Syria. Enough was enough, they said. The rising death toll, continued repression and broken reform promises of President Bashar al-Assad …Officials note that Mr. Annan\u2019s six-point plan is not just about stemming the violence. It also demands the Assad regime allows peaceful protests and accepts a Syrian-led political process to address what it calls \u201cthe aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people.\u201d<\/p>\n

The hope in Brussels is that once the violence has ebbed, Mr. Annan will unleash a political reform and democratization process whose momentum will sweep away Mr. Assad, like Egypt\u2019s Hosni Mubarak, Tunisia\u2019s Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and Yemen\u2019s Ali Abdullah Saleh before him.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Syria must be held to the law of war<\/a>
\nBy Laurie R. Blank and Geoffrey S. Corn, Special to CNN
\nApril 4, 2012<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Syria seems to be trying to sell Gold from its reserves in Dubai. A sign that it’s money is running low due to sanctions and revolt. The Obama administration insists that it is about to make some important changes to its Syria policy. 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A sign that it’s money is running low due to sanctions and revolt. The Obama administration insists that it is about to make some important changes to its Syria policy. 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