{"id":14294,"date":"2012-04-11T23:56:19","date_gmt":"2012-04-12T03:56:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=14294"},"modified":"2012-04-12T00:07:35","modified_gmt":"2012-04-12T04:07:35","slug":"syria-accepts-the-annan-plan-if-the-opposition-remains-quiet-and-un-observers-follow-strict-rules","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/syria-accepts-the-annan-plan-if-the-opposition-remains-quiet-and-un-observers-follow-strict-rules\/","title":{"rendered":"Syria Accepts the Annan Plan if the Opposition Remains Quiet and UN Observers Follow Strict Rules"},"content":{"rendered":"

Syria has accepted the Annan plan in principle and claims that its guns will fall quiet tomorrow – Thursday April 12, 2012. It is difficult to see how a truce can hold for long, but one must give Annan his due. He has worked hard to get both Russia and China to back the plan and placed considerable pressure on both sides to go along with his six points, at least on the face of it.<\/p>\n

The problem with the plan is that it resolves none of the political demands of the revolutionaries or the Syrian regime. Both sides continue to believe that time is on their side and that they can only win this struggle on the battle field. For this reason the renewal of the conflict would seem to be only a matter of time. But no one has a better plan to avoid Syria’s downward spiral toward greater levels of violence and civil war.<\/p>\n

In the following video, Syrian opposition members demonstrate in the heart of Damascus in front of the Four Seasons Hotel. They denounce Assad\u2019s crimes and vow to defeat him.<\/p>\n

<\/object><\/p>\n

Clashes between Arab tribes and Kurds in Northern Aleppo
\n<\/strong>Relation between the two have always been tense but as the regime gets weaker clashes break out.
\nWritten by a Friend in Syria on Syria Comment<\/p>\n

In Shak Maksoud and Ashrafia areas north of aleppo city, clashes between kurds (PKK affiliates) and arabs (Bakkara tribe) have erupted for the second time in less than a month. The clashes began when a member of the Bakkara tribe allegedly killed a journalist affiliated with the PKK and the tribe refused to hand him over to the Kurds The Shak Maksoud and Ashrafia areas have a majority Kurd population and a minority arab population (most of them belong to the Bakkara tribe). The PKK has a strong influence among kurds while the Bakkara has strong connections to the regime In the first occasion the clashes started withd light weapons but when the Kurds succeeded in driving the Bakkars out of the area it turned into vandalism. Kurds started burning the houses of the defeated Bakkaras but spared the houses of those who did not fight.<\/p>\n

Regime forces didn’t intervene because they didn’t want to take sides (since they have good relations with both sides) but rather tried to reconcile them. The situation is calm now but it could erupt at any moment.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Syria says it will comply with truce deadline – Al-Jazeera English<\/a><\/p>\n

Damascus agrees to “cease all military fighting” as of Thursday, but reserves right to respond to “terrorist attacks”….<\/p>\n

We asked the Brookings Institution’s Daniel Byman, director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Here’s what a blown deadline can mean:<\/p>\n

Increased American involvement First off, the authorization for Annan’s U.N. mission in Syria doesn’t talk about specific consequences if Syria doesn’t cooperate but that doesn’t mean there won’t be indirect geopolitical ramifications. One of these is the U.S. playing a greater roll in supporting the Syrian rebels. “We’re almost backing into this,” he said. “Initially it was diplomacy, then a concerted diplomatic campaign and now humanitarian aid. Each step is an escalation.” Already, the U.S. has given the rebels $25 million in humanitarian support, satellite communications equipment and night-vision goggles. “The next step is military aid,” said Byman. “You can see the progression moving here.” The Los Angeles Times has indicated that the implementation of a no-fly zone or “pinpoint airstrikes on Syrian artillery” are both possibilites….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Syria’s FM spokesman: Syria “optimistic” about peace plan<\/a><\/div>\n

Syrian foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi said Syria is committed to the peace plan brokered by special envoy Kofi Annan.<\/p>\n

“We are fully committed to have a successful mission for Mr. Annan, but at the same time people should know that I can say optimistically that 40% of the keys to solve the crisis is in our hands as government but the other 60% is in the hands of those who are harboring, channeling weapons, instigating in the media, against Syria,” said Makdissi.<\/p>\n

Makdissi also said it will take more than Syrian forces to stop the violence, adding the presence of United Nation observers on the ground will be essential to verify the cessation of violence. “If you read thoroughly the plan of Mr. Annan you will find out there will be observers, military unarmed observers sent to Syria these observers will be operating according to a protocol that we are now negotiating with the technical team of Mr. Annan. Those people will be telling you the truth as other observers did before and nobody believed them. We are not afraid of the reality of the Syrian story,” he said. “We want them to be on the ground and see for themselves who is violating this.<\/p>\n

GORANI:<\/strong> So you think in a few days, and you\u2019re being optimistic, your own words, that a UN observer team will be on the ground to observe the cessation of violence across Syria?<\/p>\n

MAKDASSI:<\/strong> No, Hala, I am very accurate in what I am saying. I am saying that the Syrian team is ready to finalize the protocol that we have already begun negotiating. But it\u2019s not up to us, it\u2019s UN observers. I can\u2019t tell you when they will come. What I can tell you is that they are very essential to monitor any violations.<\/p>\n

GORANI:<\/strong> Alright well let me ask you then about what is going on today. This is a few hours before this agreement with the Annan plan that you say will lead to the cessation of military activity at 6am Damascus time on Thursday. We are hearing reports there are tanks in the center of Hamas today. That there has been shelling in Hamas province as well today. Can you confirm that?<\/p>\n

MAKDASSI:<\/strong> I can\u2019t verify anything. What I can verify to you Hala, you have to know that my hat is foreign ministry spokesman. What I can tell you is that there is a clear instruction to be on the defensive mode by our\u00a0 army what I can tell you is even according to the Annan plan…<\/p>\n

GORANI:<\/strong> Yes, but in the end it\u2019s the Syrian army, Jihad Makdissi, against opposition, some of whom may be armed, but then you have peaceful demonstrators as well as the shelling of civilian areas. Has that not happened?<\/p>\n

MAKDASSI:<\/strong> You are simplifying. You are simplifying the crisis in Syria, Hala.\u00a0 If you read very well the Annan peace plan you will notice that the cessation of violence by all parties, so not the cessation of violence by the Syrian government, by all parties. That\u2019s why I\u2019m telling you the problem part in the hands of Syria we are committed to solve this part, but the other are in the hands of those people who have for geo-political reasons, for sectarian reasons, for I don\u2019t know which reasons they call on themselves in destabilizing Syria.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

National Jrnl: Syria’s Consequences for Blowing Tomorrow’s U.N. Deadline<\/a>, 2012-04-11<\/p>\n

All eyes will be on Syria tomorrow as the country promises to “cease all military fighting throughout Syrian territory as of 6 a.m.” If the pledge is broken, it will be mean the collapse of the United Nations peace plan brokered by special envoy …<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

U.S. discusses possible buffer zone for Syria<\/a>, By Elise Labott for CNN<\/p>\n

With the Syria deal in jeopardy and questions as to whether Syria will truly cease its military operations, particularly after Syrian troops fired across the border into Turkey, discussions within the Obama administration about creating a Syria-Turkey border “buffer zone” have intensified, State Department officials tell CNN.<\/p>\n

“It would be correct to say this idea is getting another look in the last week or so,” one official said about the buffer zone.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

WINEP recommendations by Tabler<\/p>\n

Third, Washington should immediately expand contingency planning… supporting the creation, with allies such as Turkey, of safe havens inside Syria.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Non-Syrian Islamists have Growing Influence over the Process of Naming the Syrian Revolution’s Fridays<\/a><\/p>\n

A friend writes: “islamists around the world are now voting (with a large margin) for the name of this Friday in Syria to be “Armies of Islam save Cham”! The naming is an media process that takes place on Facebook that feeds into policy making. It is representative of Syrian wishes. It’s a weekly process that can have devastating results for the revolutionaries of Syria because every week the naming process is being hijacked by Islamists (mostly non Syrians). Here is the Facebook page<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

With Syria peace plan in disarray, what next?<\/a><\/p>\n

The failure of President Bashar Assad to abide by the U.N.-backed plan will force the international community to reconsider more aggressive options.<\/p>\n

By Carol J. Williams, Los Angeles Times<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

April 11, 2012,<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Der Spiegel: Siemens Allegedly Sold Surveillance Gear to Syria<\/a>, 2012-04-11<\/p>\n

German engineering giant Siemens and a spinoff company allegedly sold surveillance technology to the Syrian regime, according to a German television report. The government could be using the equipment to crack down on opposition supporters, human ..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

133 killed as Yemen troops battle Qaeda<\/a>, Gulf Times – 11 April, 2012<\/p>\n

At least 133 people were killed in 48 hours of clashes pitting Yemeni soldiers backed by tribesmen against Al Qaeda militants, officials said yesterday, as the extremists vowed to retake a strategic town.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Iran oil flow to top Asia customers slows as US, Europe tighten curbs<\/a>, Gulf Times – 11 April, 2012<\/p>\n

….China, the world\u2019s second-largest oil consumer, is Iran\u2019s largest trading partner and biggest oil client that buys up 20% of Iran\u2019s total crude exports. Iran is China\u2019s No3 supplier after Saudi Arabia and Angola.<\/p>\n

Arthur Bowring, managing director of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association, said that as more insurers confirm they will soon halt or sharply reduce coverage to tankers operating in Iran, China\u2019s government may need to step in and take the risk to get contracted crude supplies from Tehran.<\/p>\n

The EU sanctions on Tehran will close off the European re-insurance market for all tankers carrying Iranian oil anywhere in the world. Reinsurance helps spread the risk when the coverage surpasses what commercial insurers can handle.<\/p>\n

Japan and South Korea have lobbied for exemptions to the EU sanctions, but insurance and shipping executives say a complete ban looks likely.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Omen<\/strong> writes in the comment section:
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

There is something weird going on. i tried to pull up a cnn segment from jan 24th where anderson cooper interviewed former cia agent bob baer. mr. baer said he talks to the syrian faction of Muslim brotherhood frequently. They ask him why the US doesn\u2019t do more to help. Mr. Baer asked in return what the Muslim Brothers planned to do with Bashar Assad? The Syrian Brothers said they would kill him.<\/p>\n

But that\u2019s not what the transcript says. (the original video i tried to pull has been \u201cexpired\u201d when other videos in a similar timeline are still active.)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Here is the CNN Jan 24 transcript:<\/p>\n

BAER: Absolutely. Well, you know, I talk to the Muslim brotherhood a lot. And I ask \u2014 and they ask me. They say why doesn\u2019t the United States do something? And I said, they\u2019re worried about the sectarian problems. And I said for instance, what are you going to do about the \u2014 and the Syrian brothers say we\u2019re going to kill them. What do you think? And I said, well, what do you expect?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

See the dash in the paragraph? Baer asked what are you going to do about \u201cAssad\u201d in the live segment but in the transcript, Bashar\u2019s name got blanked out. I know Baer said Assad and that the brotherhood would \u201ckill him\u201d because i was skeptical of the claim at the time and tweeted about it.<\/p>\n

A few days later, in a separate ABC write up, this Baer account of a promised Brotherhood reprisal against a singular figure turns plural<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Baer says the situation in Syria can be illustrated by a conversation he had recently with a Syrian Muslim brother who wanted to know why the U.S. won\u2019t do more to help. Baer told him it was because the U.S. fears a civil war in Syria.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd he said, \u2018Well you know just get rid of the regime and everything will be OK,\u2019 and I said, \u2018What are you going to do with the minority ruling sect,\u2019 and he said, half jokingly, \u2018We\u2019re going to kill them,\u2019\u201d Baer said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
\n

Also interesting from the ABC piece cited above was this admission from Bob Baer<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201cLet me put this very cynically, it\u2019s probably in America\u2019s interest that the current [assad] government subdues a rebellion and a civil war,\u201d Baer said.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not at all like Libya, where most Libyans are Sunni Muslims and getting rid of Muammar Gaddafi didn\u2019t lead to a Sunni-Shia divide.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Who do Egypt\u2019s villagers vote for? And why?<\/a>
\nYasmine Moataz Ahmed, Tue, 10\/04\/2012<\/p>\n

……Rural dwellers constitute a large proportion of Egyptian voters; the majority of which are illiterate and poor. In the 2011-2012 parliamentary elections, they appeared as strong supporters of the Islamic parties mentioned above.<\/p>\n

Why do rural dwellers vote for Islamic parties? Do they vote through coercion or incentives? Do they differentiate between different religious groups \u2014 in that case the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Arab League\u2019s Syrian Policy, <\/a>Wednesday, April 11, 2012
\nM\u00fcjge K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckkele?
\nSETA Policy Brief, No : 56, April, 2012<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Policy Brief : Arab League\u2019s Syrian Policy<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n
\n
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