{"id":12092,"date":"2011-09-20T10:06:49","date_gmt":"2011-09-20T14:06:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=12092"},"modified":"2011-09-25T21:22:50","modified_gmt":"2011-09-26T01:22:50","slug":"news-round-up-september-20th-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/news-round-up-september-20th-2011\/","title":{"rendered":"News Round Up (September 20th, 2011) – By Ehsani"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is the first News Round Up of the new regime. Dr. Landis is irreplaceable and we all owe him a debt of gratitude and appreciation for taking interest in Syrian politics, history and religion. Readers are encouraged to make recommendations. They are also encouraged to write opinion pieces that we will attempt to publish regularly.
\nEhsani<\/p>\n

The Arab Parliament has asked the League to suspend Syria’s Membership.<\/p>\n

U.S. Is Quietly Getting Ready for Syria Without Assad<\/a><\/p>\n

WASHINGTON \u2014 Increasingly convinced that President Bashar al-Assad of Syria will not be able to remain in power, the Obama administration has begun to make plans for American policy in the region after he exits. In coordination with Turkey, the United States has been exploring how to deal with the possibility of a civil war among Syria\u2019s Alawite, Druse, Christian and Sunni sects, a conflict that could quickly ignite other tensions in an already volatile region.<\/p>\n

Will foreigners get involved?<\/a><\/p>\n

Further measures are being floated in Washington and Brussels. Private banks that deal with Syria\u2019s regime, most of them Lebanese subsidiaries, may be targeted if the killing persists. Byblos Bank, in whose Syrian subsidiary Rami Makhlouf, the president\u2019s cousin, has a big share, may be hit.<\/p>\n

Damned if we do impose sanctions on Syria. And damned if we don’t<\/a><\/p>\n

But no one with an interest in human rights can be unaware of what happened when western nations applied sanctions to Syria’s neighbour, Iraq. No one who has seen it can forget the CBS interview in 1996 with Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton’s secretary of state. The interviewer pointed out that half a million children had died in Iraq as a result of sanctions. “We think the price is worth it,” Albright replied.<\/p>\n

And if not sanctions, then what? So far the only alternatives on offer are vacuous condemnation and demands from the likes of Nick Clegg that “it’s time for Assad to go”, which, in terms of efficacy, is like being mauled by a giant sock.<\/p>\n

The most widespread objection to the sanctions was that the governments imposing them are selective in their concerns and lacking in moral credentials. This is true on both counts. This column is discussing sanctions on Syria only because they are being imposed there, rather than on Saudi Arabia or Bahrain, which are also run by violently repressive regimes. Far from restraining them, the UK and other European nations continue to supply them with a hideous array of weapons. Though both the UK and the US committed the crime of aggression in Iraq, there is no prospect of sanctions against them. This is the justice of the powerful.<\/p>\n

While the black-gold rush is on in Kurdistan, it’s a different story in Syria<\/a><\/p>\n

The changing oilscape of the Middle East was mapped out yesterday, with prospering Kurdistan-focused Gulf Keystone preparing a $200m (\u00a3128m) rights issue to fund its rapid growth while Syria-focused Gulfsands Petroleum warned of a 40 per cent cut in production.<\/p>\n

In the months before the Arab Spring uprisings, Syria looked to offer a more attractive, stable environment for oil exploration than Kurdistan, analysts said. With persistent uncertainty over whether contracts signed by Kurdistan regional government would be recognised by Baghdad, the so-called super-majors were putting off going into Kurdish Iraq. This paved the way for smaller operators such as Gulf Keystone to make their mark.<\/p>\n

Then, in May, the Kurds reached an interim agreement with Baghdad, which safeguarded revenues generated in Kurdistan and fuelled increasing optimism that a federal oil law will be passed by the end of the year, formalising contracts signed with the regional government. As a result, big oil companies such as Repsol from Spain and Marathon Oil and Hess from the US have piled into the region.<\/p>\n

In neighbouring Syria, prospects were moving in the opposite direction. Mr Malcolm of Gulfsands warned yesterday that “some considerable uncertainty now exists in Syria as to how events will unfold over the coming weeks and months”.<\/p>\n

Perhaps due to the Arab Spring, Facebook users in the region has doubled<\/a><\/p>\n

Women make up only a third of the users. Fadi Salem (a bright Syrian) is quoted in the article.<\/p>\n

The Finance Minister takes issue with “Syrian Exceptionalism” <\/a><\/p>\n

“If the question is whether Syria will follow the principals of market economy, then I say yes. But it will have to include a human dimension that addresses the personal needs in a society. I never studied the social market economy. All I have heard is that its an expirement that\u00a0 took place in Western Europe and it ended with the people that called for it”<\/p>\n

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??? ?? ???? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ?? ????? ??? ??? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ????? ???<\/p>\n

???? ?? ???? ???????? ?????????? ???????? ?? ????? ???? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ???????? ????? ?? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ??? ?????? ?????? ????????<\/p>\n

The IMF’s latest forecast for the Syrian economy is to shrink by 2% this year as protests persist.<\/p>\n

Rivals\u2014Iran vs. Saudi Arabia<\/a><\/p>\n

There are fears that the upheaval in the Middle East will exacerbate the deep rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The region\u2019s geopolitical powers have long been locked in a so-called Cold War, but the Arab awakening is changing fronts in their proxy battles and both are vying for greater influence in a new Middle East.<\/p>\n

International rivalry over Syria means conflict likely to intensify<\/a><\/p>\n

Beleaguered Syrian President Bashar al-Assad received a boost yesterday with the visit of a Russian delegation led by Federation Council Deputy Speaker Ilyas Umkhanov. Upon arriving in Damascus, Umkhanov declared that any Syrian reforms \u2018should be carried in conditions when no outside pressure is exerted on Syria, and with no foreign interference.\u2019<\/p>\n

Umkhanov\u2019s announcement consolidated Moscow\u2019s position on the Syrian protests, which has included a rejection of any U.N. council resolution, and the advocating of a \u2018political, non-violent\u2019 resolution to the Syrian question.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s moves counteract a western push in favour of regime change, which two weeks ago featured an oil embargo and expanded sanctions in an attempt to ratchet up the pressure on powerful business elites in Damascus and Aleppo that largely remain supportive of Assad. But while painful, these sanctions \u2013 and indeed, arguably any other that the west can bring to bear \u2013 are not lethal to the regime.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, immediately condemned the sanctions, illustrating the difficulty in putting together a robust sanction regime that can be universally implemented.<\/p>\n

Yesterday\u2019s Russian visit came just three days after Ghiyath Matar, a Syrian youth leader dubbed \u2018little Ghandi\u2019 for championing non-violence, was killed, his brutalised body returned to his family by the authorities with the claim that \u2018gangs\u2019 had been responsible. Matar\u2019s killing sparked outrage and dismay, and the fear that protesters\u2019 momentum was now \u2018dying\u2019.<\/p>\n

The openSecurity verdict: As Assad\u2019s Baath regime continues its crackdown against ongoing protests in Syria, the fate of the Syrian people may increasingly rely on the outcome of a tug of war between states who support regime change in Damascus and others who oppose it.<\/p>\n

The outcome is unlikely to be pretty. More probably, the result of the clashing international agendas, a determined elite fighting to maintain power, and an increasingly desperate protest movement, is a Syria that is broken.<\/p>\n

The question being asked is no longer whether there will be civil strife, sectarian violence, and economic hardship, but rather for how long and at what cost will Syria suffer under such conditions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is the first News Round Up of the new regime. Dr. Landis is irreplaceable and we all owe him a debt of gratitude and appreciation for taking interest in Syrian politics, history and religion. Readers are encouraged to make recommendations. They are also encouraged to write opinion pieces that we will attempt to publish […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[42,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ehsani","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nNews Round Up (September 20th, 2011) - By Ehsani - Syria Comment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/news-round-up-september-20th-2011\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"News Round Up (September 20th, 2011) - By Ehsani - Syria Comment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is the first News Round Up of the new regime. 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