{"id":11995,"date":"2011-09-19T00:53:53","date_gmt":"2011-09-19T04:53:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=11995"},"modified":"2011-09-19T13:59:31","modified_gmt":"2011-09-19T17:59:31","slug":"opposition-national-council-formed-opposition-gets-armed-building-boom-in-syria-as-sanctions-bite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/opposition-national-council-formed-opposition-gets-armed-building-boom-in-syria-as-sanctions-bite\/","title":{"rendered":"Opposition National Council Formed; Opposition Gets Armed; Building Boom in Syria as Sanctions Bite;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"width: 495px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"  \" src=\"http:\/\/news.xinhuanet.com\/english2010\/world\/2011-09\/15\/131140986_21n.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"485\" height=\"322\" \/><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Opposition National Council: Imad Eldin Rasid, a Jordan-based Syrian opposition member, speaks at a press conference held in Istanbul on Sept. 15, 2011. For the last three years he has been teaching in Jodan. Before that he taught at the Sharia College iat Damascus Univ. (Thanks to Thomas Pierret)<\/p><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=W5vv-g_U1G0&amp;feature=player_embedded#!\">The Opposition announced a National Council<\/a>. Increasingly, the opposition is getting organized. Opposition members are scrambling to get their house in order. A number of differences have been put aside in order to make up the National Council on Thursday. But many differences remain and a few opposition groups within the country are trying to put together a National Assembly. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2011\/09\/18\/us-syria-opposition-idUSTRE78H0RW20110918?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=worldNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FworldNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+International%29\">The best article on the National Council is by Khalid Oweis of Reuters. He writes:<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">President Bashar al-Assad&#8217;s opponents have taken a step toward unity by forming a national council to represent Syria&#8217;s uprising but have a long way to go until they create a broad-based alternative to his rule&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>the council has yet to produce a credible leader who can command wide respect on the street. Other groups may still try to set up alternative leaderships both inside and outside Syria.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;They have not brought together everyone, and there are varying objections on the members, but the fact is that they finally formed a council after months of bickering over the names, while the regime has been killing 20 Syrians a day,&#8221; prominent Syrian writer Hakam al-Baba told Reuters.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;A main objective now is to address the international community, and I think the council can do that. They have also left the door open for the rest of the opposition to join,&#8221; said Baba, a dissident who lives in the Gulf.<\/p>\n<p>The opposition is also still far from forming a front similar to one set up in the past by Iraqi opposition groups which campaigned for Saddam Hussein&#8217;s removal and was well connected in the West, especially Washington.<\/p>\n<p>One opposition figure not in the council said Islamists were over-represented on the newly announced body.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The National Council has taken an Islamist flavor at the time we need to assure all minorities and the ethnicities more of their future in a post-Assad Syria,&#8221; said Thamer al-Jahmani, a prominent lawyer from Deraa who took refugee in Jordan last month after the assassination of a fellow activist&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The council will broadly be based on the principle of representing different sections of the Syrian society. For example, 30 percent of the council members are said to be from Islamic-leaning groups ( Muslim Brothers ), 30 percent left-leaning groups and 40 percent from various ethnic groups present in Syria; although, there is no rigid percentage system.<\/p>\n<p>Yasser Tabbara, an independent member of the council, said &#8220;Everyone who is committed to our basic principles is welcome to join the council.&#8221; The council is made up of 65 people who live outside Syria and 70 from inside at the moment, although this number will be open to expansion as new figures will join the council.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/english.cntv.cn\/program\/newsupdate\/20110916\/109576.shtml\">Tabbara told Xinhua news agency<\/a> that the basic principles of the council consist of toppling Bashar al-Assad&#8217;s regime, commitment to peaceful nature of the revolution, opposition to any foreign intervention and maintaining the national unity of Syria. He also said the council would not work with anyone who negotiated with the Assad government. The various positions in the National Council will be determined after an election process is completed in the next few weeks, said Tabbara.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=BD-sHdn13Go&amp;feature=share\">See Tabbara on al-Jazeera<\/a> debate the efficacy of the new council with Nadim Shehadi and Naim Salem &#8211; a good discussion by smart people.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The council sees three stages in the near future consisting of changing the regime, post-regime transition and then the future political path,&#8221; said Bassmah Ghodami, a Paris-based Syrian opposition member. Ghodami said each stage is expected to last six months but the time frame is flexible depending on events on the ground.<\/p>\n<p>Another aim of the council is to create a political umbrella for Syria&#8217;s rebels, according to Ghodami.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Syria&#8217;s internal opposition is getting armed<\/strong> and dangerous. Ugarit News reports that &#8220;a unit of the Free Officers&#8217; Movement ambushed a Syrian security convoy on the Road to Hama, killing more than 30 and wounding more than 20. If true, it underlines Anthony Shadid&#8217;s recent contention that Syria&#8217;s opposition is increasingly becoming armed and lethal: &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/09\/17\/world\/middleeast\/at-least-six-protesters-killed-in-syria.html?_r=2\">Syria\u2019s Protesters, Long Mostly Peaceful, Starting to Resort to Violence<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bloggingheads.tv\/diavlogs\/38565\">Ausama Monajed, a leading activist and member of the National Council, insisted to me<\/a> that the opposition is against taking up arms because they believe that a &#8220;tipping point&#8221; will be reached by peaceful action in which the regime &#8220;collapses,&#8221; due either to a coup inside the military or increased defections.<\/p>\n<p>Many in the opposition believe this is unlikely. Some officials in the US also are beginning to fear that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.examiner.com\/geopolitics-in-national\/syria-stalemate-us-worried-assad-will-weather-storm\">Syria has reached a stalemate: US worried Assad will weather storm, according to the Wall STreet Journal.<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 The armed opposition does not seem to be taking orders from the new National Council.<\/p>\n<p>New OFAC Rules make it illegal for Americans to work in Syria.<\/p>\n<p>I have asked experts whether this means that American-Syrians with duel citizenship are also forbidden to work in Syria as well, and await a more precise answer. It seems the State Department figure who can answer such questions is being reassigned so we must awaiting his replacement to take up his new post. So far the answer provided by one lawyer was: &#8220;tricky. Some argue that Syrian citizenship allows you to be treated as Syrian inside Syria&#8230;This needs clarification.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>STOCKS IN EGYPT last week reached a new low. They are now down 34%.<br \/>\nSTOCKS IN SYRIA are now down 48%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Nidal Maalouf<\/strong>, founder of Syria News, decided to immigrate after being harassed by security. He evidently was harassed because the site was not far enough in the pro-Assad camp. Last heard he is in Turkey.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Education School Year Begins in Syria<\/strong>: 5.6 million Syrian children entered school on September 18, the first day of the academic year &#8211; 1\/4 of Syria&#8217;s population.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Ry496uWWLFc\">Imad Moustapha interview on CNN<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/09\/19\/world\/middleeast\/turkey-predicts-partnership-with-egypt-as-regional-anchors.html\">Turkey Predicts Alliance With Egypt as Regional Anchors<\/a>, By ANTHONY SHADID<\/p>\n<p><strong>COMMENTS BY READERS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Observations about Aleppo and the Economy<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>1- The areas outside aleppo have changed recently and have become more restive.<\/p>\n<p>2- mazot is very hard to find. you cannot get anything at the official price of syp 15. You need to pay 23 and even then you get it in very small quantities. some who want to store for the winter cannot get it because the govt has forbidden mazot deliveries to home till October.<\/p>\n<p>3- people in the city are very pissed off with the shabiha.<\/p>\n<p>4- people are also very pissed off with the lawlessness and the illegal building that is taking place.<\/p>\n<p>5- Tough boys are in control of the city.<\/p>\n<p>6- Christians are very very pro-regime and that is surprising some Sunnis and creating some tensions.<\/p>\n<p>7- winter is going to be key with mazot etc. also the upcoming sanctions are likely to impact Aleppo.<\/p>\n<p>8- while Aleppo and Syria suffered in the 80&#8217;s , its not the same now. over past 10 years they have gotten used to things that will be hard to do without .<\/p>\n<p>9-he feels that Aleppo was a fire wall from day 1 in Tunisia. it is not that the they were unprepared but the places the troubles started at came out of nowhere. no one thought of daraa, banyas or homs.<\/p>\n<p>10-feels that just like every other place, it will be small villages outside Aleppo and then the poor areas of Aleppo that may see the action.<\/p>\n<p>11- religious establishment has been totally embraced by the regime so that they don&#8217;t push the people. that worked. same for the business guys. the latter group does not feel that the regime is falling yet so they don&#8217;t want to pay the price of jumping ship now. they will stick with it but once they are convinced its going down they will do it fast.<\/p>\n<p>12- when and if Aleppo does break , it will be uglier than anywhere else.<\/p>\n<p>13. Many in the business community and among the elite have, over the past 2 months, started to get the feeling that things in Aleppo are not heading in the right direction and are thus trying to get family out of the country. Some are enrolling them in schools in the West, if they have family members there. The shabiha and their thuggish behavior is making people really mad. Mazzot prices will also be a barometer of public opinion.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Another view from a Syrian-American visiting Syria<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>None of the Syrians I met was panicking &#8211; including all of my first cousins who make their living entirely in Syria. Frankly, I was shocked. I was certainly more concerned than they were.<\/p>\n<p>They seemed to indicate that we, as Syrians, have been there before and there is nothing new. And their survival confidence is higher than I have ever seen.<\/p>\n<p>One prominent doctor from Aleppo whom I met in Istanbul told my that his wire transfer to his son in FL to purchase a condo was rejected by the US and returned to his bank in Beirut. Why? Because although his account was in Lebanon and it is in US dollars, the US does not accept or allow wire transfers from Syrians regardless whether they are on the sanction lists or not.<\/p>\n<p>So, I sounded concerned and issued one of my famous (mainly fake) &#8220;sigh&#8221; in front of him in solidarity with his dilemma and in disgust with the US. He laughed. He said the money was re-transferred successfully the same day, under a different name and it cost him just $100 extra to do so.<\/p>\n<p>His words: &#8220;Stupid Americans, they have no clue&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>So I asked how is Shihabi now going to get raw materials for his drug manufacturing factories in Aleppo. He laughed again (this time at me and my stupid question). Answer: &#8220;As he always did.&#8221; He buys raw materials from India. India gets it from all over.<\/p>\n<p>The merchants of Syria &#8211; mainly in major cities will not be hurt in any meaningful way. They survived the Umayyads, the Abbassids, the Mongols, the Crusaders, the Ottomans, the French, the Baathists. They are survivors and they are there to stay. It&#8217;s just us who left and are scared for them.<\/p>\n<p>Construction business? It is booming. They can hardly find enough workers to meet the demands &#8211; one prominent builder told me. In one story, he said his master tile guy was arrested because he was in a demonstration. The day after his arrest, his brother came in to fill the need. He was as good and there was no interruption.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>An explanation by another reader<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>1- The construction business is booming because there is welcomed lawlessness in Syria. Aleppo is a construction site because no one is watching. You have an open roof on your building? you can turn it into a 2 bedroom apartment in a month. no permit. no baladiye to ask. our next door building did just that. You have a mazraa and you have always dreamt of a villa and a pool in the middle? No problem. in 3 months its done regardless of the fact that it is zoned as agrictultral land. my sister has one. she has 2 floors. her builder said i can add a third in 2 weeks. no need to ask anyone. basically over the past 6 months, syrians created their own tanzeem. once the f&#8230;ed up local govt was removed from the scene, your kids&#8217; dream homes were quickly built. why the rush? because as soon as things return to normal , govt will come back. for now, they come , take a picture of what you have done and say goodbye.<\/p>\n<p>2- Fares Chehabi can of course get raw materials from india, china, angola or burkina faso. 50 years of baaath have produced best smugglers in the world. every taxi driver can qualify. Every moukhales jumruki can import anything and produce documents to prove that it is something else. 3- money transfers in amounts that get wired in syria is a joke. of course you can always find someone. back in the days when a money transfer was subject to life in prison did not deter people. it just meant that you get charged more for the transfers. 4- the wealthy will always find a way. it just means a bit more expensively than the past but then again he can always charge more now because of the hardship in getting his wires and raw materials in.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Another Reader<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>I talked to a contractor friend of mine in Damascus and he says his business is back on track workers are more disciplined now, roads are opened and prices of cement are still up (very heavy building in the unplanned developments)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Another Reader<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>They are indeed enjoying the outdoor dining to the max! In Nadi Halab, the Gemini club and Swiss house in Damascus you can&#8217;t find a place to sit if you have no reservations. The sushi place and the 6 other cafes\/restaurants in the four seasons boulevards are full every night. Same thing in the 10 restaurant complex near Pulman hotel in Aleppo. Even in Homs in eid the cafes near the malaab were half full! In revolting Douma, a guy there told me that during the early days of the uprising cafes used to close down immediately once a one of the daily demos start marching in the street where they are at. Now people continue to smoke argileh while watching the demonstrators there march 10 meters away, then order more drinks while watching the demonstrators run back while the security and shabbiha run behind them!<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>Syrians are now like the Lebanese. They adapted and decided to live their lives to the fullest despite everything. They will continue to adapt going forward.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Syrian Prometheus:<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>I am actually quite baffled by the stories denoting a construction boom. I have it on very good authority that the previously lucrative imports of timber, marble and other construction-related materials have slowed down dramatically. One major importer is keeping minimal inventories in this space while keeping food imports at relatively high levels.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>The Harmoush<\/strong> Interview on Syrian TV &#8211; He is the leader of the Free Syrian Army who was captured by Syrian authorities<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.champress.net\/index.php?q=ar\/Article\/view\/101172\">???? ?????? ?? ??? ???????? ??????? <\/a>.. ?????: ?? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ? ???? ????? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ? ???? ???????? ???????-<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Article in Sham Press about Harmoush&#8217;s TV interview. Harmoush explains that every opposition personality called him and asked Harmoush what his plan was. Harmoush would respond by asking them to present a plan and he would accept the most reasonable and the one that had financial logistics backing. Everyone promised and no one delivered.<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.champress.net\/UserFiles\/Image\/2009\/04\/20110915-225534_h369664.jpg\" alt=\"???? ?????? ?? ??? ???????? ??????? .. ?????: ?? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ? ???? ????? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ? ???? ???????? ???????  \" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" align=\"left\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to Youth Syria for Freedom, Colonel Harmoush was conned by officers that he knew. They deceived him into believing that they needed to meet him inside the border to defect to Turkey. He went in and was trapped by security forces. Turkish Authorities have nothing to do with the incident.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"And here's the full video: http:\/\/vimeo.com\/29113241\">Here is the complete video of the Harmoush interview on TV<\/a><\/p>\n<p>???? ????? ???? ?? ??? ?????? Youth Syria For Freedom<\/p>\n<p>???? ????? #syria ? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ??????? ???? ????? ??????? ?? .. ?????? ????? ??? ?????? ???? .. :: :: :: :: :: ????? ????? ??? : ????? ??? ??? ????? ???????? ?????? ???? ????? ?? ???? ??? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ????? ?? ????????? ??? ?? ??????? ???? ??? ?? ????? ??? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ????? ?? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ???? ??????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??!<br \/>\n?? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ????? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ?? ???????? ????????? ??? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ?????????? ?? ????? ??????? ???? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ??? ????? ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???????? (((??? ????? ???? ????????? ??? ??? ????? ?????? ???? ????? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ??? ?????? ??????? ?????? ???? ?????? ???????? ???? ????? ???? ??? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??? ?? ????? ???? ???? ???? ???? ??? ?????? ???? ??? ?? ????? ???? ???? ?????? ???? ?????? ?? !<br \/>\n????)))<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Youth.Syria.Freedom\">The Chief Commander of\u00a0 the Free Syrian Army, Colonel R AlAs3ad<\/a>, says:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Turkish Government is not to blame in the arrest of Colonel Harmoush by Syrian Forces. The Turkish authorities are investigating Harmoush disappearance and bringing him back. We hold the Syrian regime responsible for the well being and the life of Colonel Harmoush and we demand his release to the custody of the Turkish Authorities.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>Syrian President Bashar al-Assad\u2019s regime will likely live through the anti-government uprisings despite sanctions levied by the US and its European allies, according to Jay Solomon in the Wall Street Journal.<\/p>\n<p>The Obama administration is planning for a protracted confrontation with Assad as the revolt in Syria enters month seven.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. and EU have slapped oil sanctions on Damascus that could threaten up to one-third of the government&#8217;s revenue, but many experts believe they lack adequate \u201cbite\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Not to mention, the upper ranks of Mr. Assad&#8217;s military, dominated by members of his Shia Alawite religious sect, remain impressively unified in their support for the president and his family.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, an opposition that has been fragmented across religious, ethnic and geographic lines has failed to make much headway against the brutal violence employed by Assad\u2019s security forces which have killed over 2,400 protesters.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/World\/Middle-East\/2011\/0914\/Why-many-Syrians-still-support-Assad\">Why Many Syrians Still Support Assad<\/a><br \/>\nThe Christian Science Monitor<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The Arab League yesterday called on Syria&#8217;s Assad to stop his &#8216;killing machine&#8217; as the uprising enters its seventh month. But Assad, still backed by key groups, is unlikely to bow to such calls&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/intl\/cms\/s\/0\/bc6d5bcc-ded8-11e0-a228-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1XzShypJq\">EU Sanctions on Syria Oil and Gas Industry Come Sith Loopholes<\/a><br \/>\nBy: Paul Richter and Henry Chu | Los Angeles Times<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>As Syria\u2019s foes intensify pressure on Bashar al-Assad, its friends are adopting a new tune, appealing to the president to embrace reforms and buy time for his embattled regime.<\/p>\n<p>The most curious call for political progress is now coming from Iran, Syria\u2019s main strategic ally in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p>Political analysts say the change of rhetoric reflects Iran\u2019s nervousness over Mr Assad\u2019s management of the six-month popular uprising. It is also a tactical move designed to limit the damage to Iran\u2019s image in a region where it styles itself as a champion of the oppressed.<\/p>\n<p>Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, the president who was himself accused of stealing the 2009 election, sparking an unprecedented wave of street protests, has spoken of \u201cneeded reforms\u201d in Syria. More explicitly, Ali-Akbar Salehi, the foreign minister, has called on Mr Assad to \u201cbe accountable to his people\u2019s legitimate demands\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Mr Assad has waged a relentless military campaign to crush the revolt, leaving 2,600 Syrians dead so far, according to the UN. Western diplomats say he has been receiving advice and logistical support from Iran, a claim Tehran denies.<\/p>\n<p>The campaign continues to intensify, with killings reported every day, but it shows no sign of breaking the will of the protest movement and is increasingly eroding the authority of the government.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts in Tehran say Iran will support Mr Assad until his last day but is growing concerned about his increased weakness and ability to survive. A collapse of the Damascus regime would deprive Tehran of a vital ally and strike a blow to its ambitions for greater influence in the region at a time of historic change.<\/p>\n<p>Syria\u2019s uprising has been dominated by Sunni Muslims, the majority population that has been ruled by Mr Assad\u2019s minority Alawite regime, an offshoot of Shia Islam. If the protest movement eventually prevails it is unlikely to produce a government that maintains as tight a relationship with Iran.<\/p>\n<p>Some reports suggest that an Iranian official recently met activists from the Syrian opposition, in what could be an attempt to push for a dialogue between the opposition and the region in Damascus.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIran sees no other choice but to support reforms in order to buy time and also not to look like it is standing against Arab public opinion,\u201d said a former Iranian official.<\/p>\n<p>The Syrian uprising has exposed blatant contradictions in Iran\u2019s attitude to Arab revolts. Tehran has hailed the Arab spring as an \u201cIslamic awakening\u201d inspired by its own revolution in 1979 but when it comes to Syria it has backed Damascus\u2019s claims that the revolt is a foreign conspiracy designed to benefit Israel.<\/p>\n<p>In Syria and across the region, however, Arabs who have risen against autocracy have more in common with the Iranian opposition crushed by the Islamic regime in 2009 than with current leaders. Their battles are driven by domestic considerations rather than a global struggle against America or a regional struggle against Israel.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the slogans in Syria\u2019s protests have directly targeted Iran and Lebanon\u2019s Hizbollah, the Shia militant group backed by Tehran and Damascus, and expressed approval of Turkey, an ally of the regime which has been far more vocal in condemning Damascus\u2019s actions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIran cannot afford to be against Syrian public opinion any more because anger against Iran is getting really serious,\u201d said one former Iranian diplomat.<\/p>\n<p>More broadly, a recent survey of public opinion in six Arab countries, conducted by the Arab American Institute in Washington, found that Iran\u2019s popularity has been in dramatic decline while that of Turkey has soared.<\/p>\n<p>A political analyst with links to the ruling establishment in Tehran said Iran was pushing for more visible but still cosmetic reforms in Syria because drastic steps would spell the end of the Assad regime.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe [Iranian] regime is steadfast in helping to keep Assad in power,\u201d says the political analyst. \u201cIf there are real reforms, Assad has to leave power and that is not acceptable to Iran.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/print-edition\/opinion\/a-perfect-storm-1.384558\">The Arab spring is an Arab disaster<\/a> &#8211; 15.09.2011, &#8211; Haaretz opinion<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The choice in Syria will be either a bloodbath, an Alawite dictatorship or a Sunni dictatorship<\/p>\n<p>The picture is clearing up. The Arab spring is an Arab disaster. In the coming years there will be no democracy in Egypt. The choice in Egypt will be either chaos, Islamic dictatorship or military dictatorship. In the coming years there will be no democracy in Syria. The choice in Syria will be either a bloodbath, an Alawite dictatorship or a Sunni dictatorship. In the coming years there will be no democracy in Jordan. The choice in Jordan will be either weakened Hashemites, the Muslim Brotherhood or Palestinians. In the coming years there will be no democracy in Libya. There the choice will be disintegration, disorder or renewed despotism. Perhaps in Tunisia a real change for the better will occur.<\/p>\n<p>But the bottom line of the Arab spring is that the lives of hundreds of millions of Arabs will be worse. More poverty, more crime, more fear in the streets. More oppression of women, more persecution of minorities, more hatred of the West. Monarchies like Saudi Arabia, which thwarted the Arab spring &#8211; are now emerging as responsible states. In contrast, the republics defeated by the Arab spring are turning one after the other into failed states. They are tainted with fanaticism, spreading misery and creating unprecedented instability.<\/p>\n<p>The picture is clearing up. The Palestinian September is an Israeli-Palestinian disaster. The Palestinian September was conceived by two European statesmen &#8211; Bernard Kouchner and Javier Solana. Those two naive men figured if they grant international sponsorship to Salam Fayyad&#8217;s Palestinian-state plan, they would force Israel to make a final-status arrangement.<\/p>\n<p>But the Israelis did not cave in to the pressure. The Palestinians fell in love with the plan.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/thelede.blogs.nytimes.com\/2011\/09\/14\/syrian-tv-station-accuses-al-jazeera-of-fabricating-uprising\/\">Syrian TV Station Accuses Al Jazeera of Fabricating Uprising<\/a> &#8211; NYTImes Lede Blog, September 14, 2011<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=0xQ-qhB1uzg&amp;feature=player_embedded\">A YouTube channel called the Syrian Interpreter<\/a> has posted a subtitled recording of the Syrian television station Addounia TV claiming in a Sept. 9 broadcast that the news station Al Jazeera has built enormous \u201ccinematic replicas\u201d of Syrian cities and squares in the Gulf state of Qatar in order to fabricate the uprising in Syria.<\/p>\n<p>These replicas were built \u201cwith the help of some French and American directors\u201d and are \u201cexactly like the ones set up of the Green Square for Libya, with which they duped the Libyans and the world that Tripoli fell,\u201d according to the channel\u2019s English translation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWith those replicas,\u201d the subtitles read, \u201cAl Jazeera will continue media fabrication and cinematic tricks by shooting scenes of big defections from the Arab Syrian Army and shooting scenes of clashes. Those scenes would be done by directors from the U.S., France, and Israel.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A spokesperson for Al Jazeera said: \u201cThis is wackiness of the highest order which no one will be taking seriously. Many other journalists were in Tripoli reporting the same events, so it is telling that such is Al Jazeera\u2019s influence in the region that supporters of these regimes are targeting Al Jazeera specifically for covering the uprisings.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB10001424053111904491704576570670264116178.html\">Erdogan&#8217;s Remarks Irk Muslim Brotherhood<\/a> &#8211; SEPTEMBER 14, 2011 &#8211; Wall Street Journal<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>CAIRO\u2014The Muslim Brotherhood objected to statements by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan telling Egyptians not to fear building a secular state, in a rare clash that exposes the gap between the so-called Turkish model for building a Muslim democracy and what Islamists in the region believe when they invoke it.<\/p>\n<p>For much of Mr. Erdogan&#8217;s two-day visit to Egypt this week, members of the Muslim Brotherhood made up much of the fan club that followed Mr. Erdogan around Cairo. They championed his tough stance toward Israel and his promotion of Muslim solidarity.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/travel.state.gov\">U.S. ISSUES TRAVEL WARNING FOR SYRIA<\/a><br \/>\n2011-09-15<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The U.S. Department of State urges U.S. citizens in Syria to depart immediately while commercial transportation is available. Given the ongoing uncertainty and volatility of the current situation, U.S. citizens who must remain in Syria are advised to limit nonessential travel within the country. U.S. citizens not in Syria should defer all travel to Syria at this time&#8230;..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\" http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB10001424053111904060604576572563571730924.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines\">WSJ [Reg]: Sanctions Won&#8217;t End Syria&#8217;s Repression<\/a><br \/>\n2011-09-15<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>On Sept. 2, the European Union, supported by the United States, imposed an embargo on exports of Syrian oil. The EU buys some 95% of Syria&#8217;s oil output, accounting for almost a third of Syria&#8217;s national income. By hitting the regime of Bashar Assad &#8230;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dp-news.com\/en\/detail.aspx?articleid=96594\">Writing a New Syrian Constitution<\/a> | By Sami Moubayed<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;. A hard reality is beginning to sink into the upper echelons of power in Damascus; that the Baath Party can no longer survive with the same regime, methods, tools and personalities that it used for nearly 50 years.<\/p>\n<p>The Baathists need to dismantle their monopoly on power at will, because they are going to have to do so anyhow under increased pressure from the angry Syrian street. At any rate, Baath Party control &#8212; if not mandated by a true democracy &#8212; cannot survive in a new Syria. Article 8 and a democracy &#8212; which is the ultimate goal&#8211; can never go hand in hand.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: x-small;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2011\/09\/14\/us-syria-ports-idUSTRE78D3R320110914\">Syria&#8217;s ports suffer as unrest hits economy<\/a><br \/>\n<\/span>By Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Reuters<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;Shipping sources say traffic in general cargoes, dry and liquid bulk cargoes, and containers at Latakia and Tartous has been slipping since the uprising broke out in March. They estimate volumes shrank an average 35 to 40 percent from a year earlier in the first eight months of 2011.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Importers and exporters are being very cautious, and that has led to imports of raw materials falling sharply as production slows down in many industries due to the troubles,&#8221; a Syrian transportation official, who requested anonymity, told Reuters from Damascus.<\/p>\n<p>Shipping agents and industry experts said container volumes, the vast majority of which are handled by Latakia, dropped in June alone by 36 percent from a year earlier to 33,527 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU).<\/p>\n<p>Official Latakia port figures for the April-June period show a drop of 16 percent from a year earlier, but industry sources said this data was misleading because it included many containers with empty space.<\/p>\n<p>In Tartous, which handles most of Syria&#8217;s bulk cargoes, or nearly 9 million tonnes of annual traffic in normal times, shipping sources said some European operators were avoiding the port after the European Union announced sanctions on Syrian oil exports at the start of September.<\/p>\n<p>They said they were also seeing less business from Iraqi and other Arab traders who were deterred by the increasing checkpoints and roadblocks in many parts of Syria.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We had 25 to 30 vessels daily arriving. This has dropped to between 10 to five daily,&#8221; said a major shipping agent based in Tartous, referring to vessels between 8,000 and 35,000 tonnes.<\/p>\n<p>So far, major regular shipping lines such as Danish firm Maersk, French-based CMA CGM, Geneva-based MSC, and Germany&#8217;s Hamburg Sud have largely maintained normal vessel calls to Syrian ports despite lower cargo volumes, industry sources said.<\/p>\n<p>Shipping agents say the companies are reluctant to pull out of a transit market that has served the whole region and still has great long-term potential because of its location.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pressdisplay.com\/pressdisplay\/fr\/viewer.aspx\">New Party Formed<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Syrian opposition members Hassan Kamel, Louai Hussain, Mona Ganem and Bahaa Al Deen Erkad at a press conference in Damascus to announce the formation of a party called \u2018Building the Syrian State\u2019. This is the first party to be announced in Syria since the endorsement of the multi-party law by Syrian President Bashar Al Assad last month.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.monde-diplomatique.fr\/carnet\/2011-09-07-Syrie-un-officier-superieur-parle\">Syrie : un officier sup\u00e9rieur parle<\/a><br \/>\nLe Monde Diplomatique, mercredi 7 septembre 2011<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u00ab L\u2019arm\u00e9e de la Syrie n\u2019est que l\u2019arm\u00e9e des services de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 syriens (jaych amni). \u00bb Mon interlocuteur a prononc\u00e9 ces mots gravement. On l\u2019appellera Mohammed, c\u2019est un officier sup\u00e9rieur sunnite.<\/p>\n<p>Comment en est-on arriv\u00e9 l\u00e0 ?<\/p>\n<p>Il faut remonter aux ann\u00e9es 1960 o\u00f9, en quatre coups d\u2019Etat, se mettent en place les cadres de l\u2019actuel syst\u00e8me politique syrien : la ruralisation des villes et du r\u00e9gime, l\u2019arriv\u00e9e au pouvoir de la minorit\u00e9 alaouite et la domination du parti et des civils par l\u2019arm\u00e9e. Le dernier putsch, celui de Hafez Al-Assad, p\u00e8re de l\u2019actuel pr\u00e9sident, en 1970, va parachever la construction du syst\u00e8me autoritaire. Il instaure un maillage complet de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 syrienne autour de l\u2019arm\u00e9e et des organes de la S\u00fbret\u00e9, du parti et de la bureaucratie. Le r\u00e9gime utilise aussi les liens de solidarit\u00e9 familiaux, claniques, communautaires et r\u00e9gionaux pour se constituer une client\u00e8le (qui est \u00e9videmment r\u00e9mun\u00e9r\u00e9e par les postes de la fonction publique). Le croisement des liens communautaires et de l\u2019obsession du contr\u00f4le s\u00e9curitaire produit la pr\u00e9dominance alaouite dans les hautes charges de l\u2019arm\u00e9e et des organes de s\u00e9curit\u00e9. Le ciment de l\u2019\u00e9difice s\u00e9curitaire, c\u2019est la culture de la peur que la r\u00e9volte vient de mettre \u00e0 bas. Sous M. Bachar Al-Assad (depuis 2000), le parti, la bureaucratie et l\u2019arm\u00e9e sont pass\u00e9s directement sous le contr\u00f4le des services de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, eux-m\u00eames enti\u00e8rement aux mains de la famille Assad. Les Syriens consid\u00e8rent m\u00eame que le parti est le sixi\u00e8me service de s\u00e9curit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Z. : \u00ab Combien d\u2019hommes travaillent dans l\u2019arm\u00e9e et les services de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 ? \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; M. : \u00ab Leur nombre total d\u00e9passerait 700 000 personnes : 400 000 hommes dans les forces arm\u00e9es r\u00e9guli\u00e8res, 100 000 hommes dans la police et les services de renseignement, et plusieurs dizaines de milliers employ\u00e9s \u00e0 temps partiel par les organes de la S\u00fbret\u00e9. \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>Ce sont ces derniers qui forment les bataillons de chabbiha et de francs-tireurs. Les chabbiha sont des ruraux et sans doute des prisonniers de droit commun lib\u00e9r\u00e9s au d\u00e9but de la r\u00e9volte. On estime \u00e0 plus de 100 000 le nombre d\u2019Alaouites dans les services de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, sans compter l\u2019arm\u00e9e et la Garde pr\u00e9sidentielle, forte de plusieurs dizaines de milliers d\u2019hommes, qui est totalement alaouite. Les Alaouites repr\u00e9senteraient en 2011 quelque 10 % de la population. La moiti\u00e9 des fonctionnaires serait employ\u00e9e dans l\u2019appareil de s\u00e9curit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>A ces hommes, il faut ajouter plus de 60 000 civils employ\u00e9s par le minist\u00e8re de la d\u00e9fense (notamment dans l\u2019\u00e9tablissement du logement militaire, mouassassat al-iskan al-askari, dirig\u00e9 par un cousin d\u2019Al-Assad). Ces hommes, comme d\u2019autres agents de l\u2019Etat, sont oblig\u00e9s, sous peine de perdre leur poste, de venir assister le pouvoir dans la r\u00e9pression : ce sont eux qu\u2019on voit munis de b\u00e2tons \u00e9lectriques ou de barres de fer, souvent plac\u00e9s \u00e0 la sortie des mosqu\u00e9es. Ils sont aussi mobilis\u00e9s dans les manifestations de soutien au r\u00e9gime&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Z. : \u00ab Mais cette arm\u00e9e est bien charg\u00e9e de la d\u00e9fense du territoire ? \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>Mohammed sourit, sa main qui allait prendre la tasse de caf\u00e9 s\u2019arr\u00eate, comme suspendue. Il la pose sur la table et me regarde.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; M. : \u00ab Certes, mais on peut s\u2019interroger depuis les ann\u00e9es 1990 : une grande partie du budget national est affect\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019arm\u00e9e. Or, il n\u2019y a plus de r\u00e9el renouvellement de mat\u00e9riel pour la majorit\u00e9 des divisions et unit\u00e9s militaires. Alors, o\u00f9 va l\u2019argent ? De plus, une brigade a \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9e \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re avec Isra\u00ebl (liwa nitaq al-hita) mais elle n\u2019est dot\u00e9e d\u2019aucune capacit\u00e9 militaire, elle n\u2019a m\u00eame pas de chars\u2026 Enfin, la direction militaire semble tr\u00e8s occup\u00e9e ailleurs comme, par exemple, \u00e9carter de l\u2019arm\u00e9e et du service militaire les Damasc\u00e8nes : ainsi, un jeune Sunnite damasc\u00e8ne peut payer une sorte de salaire mensuel \u00e0 un officier responsable pour valider son service en restant chez lui ou en travaillant \u00e0 Damas \u00bb\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Z. : \u00ab En ce qui concerne les appartenances confessionnelles au sein de l\u2019arm\u00e9e ? \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; M. : \u00ab On est arriv\u00e9 \u00e0 cette situation hautement symbolique o\u00f9 il n\u2019y a plus que deux appartenances r\u00e9elles : l\u2019alaouite et la sunnite (fi alawi wa fi sunni) mais par sunnite, il faut entendre toutes les autres communaut\u00e9s \u00bb [sunnite, druze, chr\u00e9tiennes, etc., soit 90% de la population, NDLR]. \u00ab En principe, poursuit mon interlocuteur, quand un commandant de division, de brigade ou autre unit\u00e9 militaire est sunnite, son adjoint est alaouite et vice-versa. \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>C\u2019est d\u2019ailleurs le m\u00eame principe qui dirige l\u2019attribution des postes de ministres dans le gouvernement, chaque ministre non-alaouite \u00e9tant chapeaut\u00e9 d\u2019un adjoint alaouite qui d\u00e9tient la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de la d\u00e9cision politique. On notera que la r\u00e9cente nomination d\u2019un chr\u00e9tien \u00e0 la t\u00eate du minist\u00e8re de la d\u00e9fense, vise sans doute \u00e0 impliquer plus encore les chr\u00e9tiens du c\u00f4t\u00e9 du r\u00e9gime.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; M. : \u00ab La d\u00e9cision dans l\u2019arm\u00e9e (comme dans la S\u00fbret\u00e9) revient toujours aux officiers alaouites, les sunnites n\u2019ont pas de poids. Un lieutenant alaouite pistonn\u00e9 par la S\u00fbret\u00e9 peut exercer un pouvoir complet (kamel al-sulta) dans son secteur et avoir plus d\u2019importance que son sup\u00e9rieur sunnite. Par exemple, ces officiers alaouites pistonn\u00e9s, quelle que soit leur anciennet\u00e9 dans l\u2019arm\u00e9e, auront \u00e0 leur disposition une belle voiture neuve et les officiers sup\u00e9rieurs sunnites poursuivront leurs d\u00e9placements \u00e0 bord de vieilles Jeep\u2026 Les sanctions pr\u00e9vues pour les officiers en cas de faute grave ne sont pas appliqu\u00e9es avec la m\u00eame s\u00e9v\u00e9rit\u00e9 aux uns et aux autres\u2026 De plus, les officiers sunnites peuvent faire l\u2019objet d\u2019enqu\u00eates ou de surveillances internes pour s\u2019assurer de leur loyaut\u00e9 au r\u00e9gime. D\u2019ailleurs, il est tr\u00e8s difficile pour un sunnite de s\u2019\u00e9lever au grade de g\u00e9n\u00e9ral [amid], il est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement mis \u00e0 la retraite avant\u2026 \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Z. : \u00ab Le principe confessionnel appara\u00eet-il sous d\u2019autres formes dans l\u2019arm\u00e9e ? \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>Mohammed prend sa tasse de caf\u00e9 avant de r\u00e9pondre.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; M. : \u00ab Le principe confessionnel est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9 mais rel\u00e8ve du non-dit. L\u2019arm\u00e9e syrienne est compos\u00e9e de sept divisions (firaq), chacune dirig\u00e9e par un g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de division (liwa). La quatri\u00e8me division, command\u00e9e par Maher, fr\u00e8re de Bachar Al-Assad [et qui dirige aussi la Garde pr\u00e9sidentielle], est la plus importante, elle compterait de 40 000 \u00e0 50 000 hommes, tous alaouites, et c\u2019est la section qui re\u00e7oit l\u2019\u00e9quipement militaire le plus sophistiqu\u00e9. C\u2019est cette division qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 impliqu\u00e9e d\u00e8s le d\u00e9but dans la r\u00e9pression \u00e0 Deraa. \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>Mohammed boit une gorg\u00e9e de caf\u00e9 et ajoute :<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \u00ab Tous les officiers des services de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 viennent de l\u2019arm\u00e9e. Dans la nomination des officiers, et leur promotion, c\u2019est la S\u00fbret\u00e9 (amn) qui donne \u00e0 l\u2019Etat-major les noms des officiers \u00e0 promouvoir&#8230; D\u2019ailleurs, dans la r\u00e9pression de la r\u00e9volte, toutes les d\u00e9cisions sont prises par les officiers de la S\u00fbret\u00e9. M\u00eame lorsqu\u2019il s\u2019agit de d\u00e9placer un tank&#8230; L\u2019arm\u00e9e syrienne incarne, si on veut, le pouvoir ex\u00e9cutif (al-sultat al-tanfiziyya) de la s\u00fbret\u00e9 et pas de l\u2019Etat-major. \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Z. : \u00ab Et les officiers et soldats tu\u00e9s pendant la r\u00e9volte ? \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; M. : \u00ab Il est difficile de savoir ce qui se passe exactement. Aucun militaire syrien ne doute de la capacit\u00e9 de la S\u00fbret\u00e9 \u00e0 liquider ceux qui refuseraient d\u2019ex\u00e9cuter un ordre. Dans la logique s\u00e9curitaire du r\u00e9gime, la S\u00fbret\u00e9 pr\u00e9f\u00e8rerait certainement abattre quelques alaouites pour pousser ou faire croire \u00e0 un conflit confessionnel, c\u2019est bien plus rentable pour le r\u00e9gime que d\u2019abattre un sunnite ! Ceci dit, il n\u2019est pas impossible que les militaires envoy\u00e9s sur le terrain de la r\u00e9pression soient tous alaouites, on peut m\u00eame penser que ce sont des \u00e9l\u00e9ments alaouites des quelque 100 000 agents de police et de la S\u00fbret\u00e9 que l\u2019on a habill\u00e9s en soldats pour les envoyer abattre du \u00ab sunnite \u00bb. Ce serait bien dans la logique de ce r\u00e9gime confessionnel qui ne dit pas son nom. Mais la mort de militaires ou de membres des services de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 peut aussi \u00eatre li\u00e9e \u00e0 des actes de vengeance individuels, \u00e0 des initiatives locales. Ainsi \u00e0 Deraa en mars dernier, les gens ont rep\u00e9r\u00e9 un sniper sur le toit d\u2019un immeuble, ils ont br\u00fbl\u00e9 l\u2019immeuble pour se d\u00e9barrasser du sniper\u2026 A Jisr al-Choghour, des habitants ont attaqu\u00e9 le poste de police avec un bulldozer. La r\u00e9pression est si violente, si barbare, qu\u2019elle peut produire des r\u00e9actions inattendues ! \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>Il reste tout de m\u00eame que l\u2019on n\u2019a aucune image de la mort de ces militaires alors que pour ce qui est des manifestants, on les voit tomber quasiment en direct\u2026<\/p>\n<p>J\u2019ai d\u00fb penser tout haut, Mohammed me regarde avec un air ironique cette fois-ci.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Z. : \u00ab Que faut-il penser de \u201cl\u2019arm\u00e9e syrienne libre\u201d (al-jaych al-suri al-hurr) et peut-on envisager une \u00e9ventuelle fracture au sein de l\u2019arm\u00e9e ? \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; M. : \u00ab Il s\u2019agit de dissidences individuelles et pas de la scission d\u2019une unit\u00e9 militaire compl\u00e8te ! Ces dissidences isol\u00e9es ne peuvent pas d\u00e9livrer un quelconque message fort au pouvoir. La composition communautaire de chaque unit\u00e9 militaire emp\u00eache toute homog\u00e9n\u00e9it\u00e9 pour les sunnites (mais pas pour les alaouites comme la quatri\u00e8me division le prouve). La r\u00e9partition des postes de commandement dans l\u2019arm\u00e9e est organis\u00e9e de telle sorte que m\u00eame si un ordre dissident venait d\u2019un officier du groupe sunnite, il serait bloqu\u00e9 \u00e0 divers niveaux par des officiers et sous-officiers alaouites ou alli\u00e9s du r\u00e9gime. Il ne faut pas attendre de cette arm\u00e9e le moindre soutien aux manifestants. Je le r\u00e9p\u00e8te c\u2019est une arm\u00e9e de barbouzes, jaych amni \u00bb, dit-il en pronon\u00e7ant distinctement chaque syllabe\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Z. : \u00ab Alors, quelles sont les perspectives de la r\u00e9volte ? \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; M. : \u00ab Difficile \u00e0 dire sinon qu\u2019elles sont sombres. En m\u00eame temps, le r\u00e9gime s\u2019est perdu lui-m\u00eame. Si les manifestants sont bien d\u00e9cid\u00e9s \u00e0 ne pas se soumettre, le r\u00e9gime n\u2019est pas pr\u00eat non plus \u00e0 c\u00e9der quoi que ce soit. Les Assad n\u2019arrivent pas \u00e0 imaginer qu\u2019un jour ils ne seront plus l\u00e0 ! C\u2019est pourquoi la r\u00e9pression est all\u00e9e en s\u2019aggravant. Aujourd\u2019hui, l\u2019arm\u00e9e et le r\u00e9gime ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 une v\u00e9ritable guerre aux manifestants pacifiques et aux civils syriens en lan\u00e7ant contre eux les h\u00e9licopt\u00e8res, les blind\u00e9s et la marine de guerre\u2026 La seule possibilit\u00e9 du c\u00f4t\u00e9 militaire ne pourrait venir que d\u2019une scission, peu probable, au sein de la direction des services de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, qui pourrait alors entra\u00eener d\u2019autres secteurs de l\u2019arm\u00e9e&#8230; \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>Mohammed pose sa tasse de caf\u00e9, son regard se perd dans le vague.<\/p>\n<p>En attendant, le r\u00e9gime diffuse un num\u00e9ro de t\u00e9l\u00e9phone pour que les citoyens puissent d\u00e9noncer ceux qui le critiquent. D\u00e9lation de triste m\u00e9moire&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e9nobie<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>???? ???????? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ????? ?? ??? 71 ????? ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ????? ???? ????? 140 ?????? ??? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????? 52% ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??????<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Names of the Opposition National Council.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1. ??????? ??????<\/p>\n<p>2. ???? ?????<\/p>\n<p>3. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>4. ???? ????????<\/p>\n<p>5. ????? ???????<\/p>\n<p>6. ????? ??????<\/p>\n<p>7. ????? ????<\/p>\n<p>8. ??? ??????<\/p>\n<p>9. ??? ?????<\/p>\n<p>10. ??? ????? ????<\/p>\n<p>11. ??? ?????<\/p>\n<p>12. ???? ?????<\/p>\n<p>13. ???? ??????<\/p>\n<p>14. ???? ???????<\/p>\n<p>15. ???? ??? ???????<\/p>\n<p>16. ??? ??? ????<\/p>\n<p>17. ???? ??????<\/p>\n<p>18. ???? ???????<\/p>\n<p>19. ???? ??????<\/p>\n<p>20. ???? ???????<\/p>\n<p>21. ???? ????? ????<\/p>\n<p>22. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>23. ???? ???<\/p>\n<p>24. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>25. ????? ??????<\/p>\n<p>26. ????? ?????<\/p>\n<p>27. ???? ?????<\/p>\n<p>28. ????? ?????<\/p>\n<p>29. ????? ?????<\/p>\n<p>30. ????? ????<\/p>\n<p>31. ?????? ?????<\/p>\n<p>32. ???? ??????<\/p>\n<p>33. ???? ??????<\/p>\n<p>34. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>35. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>36. ??? ????? ???? ??????<\/p>\n<p>37. ??? ?????? ????<\/p>\n<p>38. ??? ?????? ????<\/p>\n<p>39. ??? ?????? ?????<\/p>\n<p>40. ????? ????<\/p>\n<p>41. ????? ????<\/p>\n<p>42. ???? ????? ??????<\/p>\n<p>43. ???? ???????<\/p>\n<p>44. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>45. ??? ?????<\/p>\n<p>46. ???? ?????<\/p>\n<p>47. ???? ???????<\/p>\n<p>48. ??????? ????<\/p>\n<p>49. ??? ????<\/p>\n<p>50. ????? ????<\/p>\n<p>51. ???? ????? ????<\/p>\n<p>52. ???? ???? ??????<\/p>\n<p>53. ???? ??????<\/p>\n<p>54. ???? ???? ?????<\/p>\n<p>55. ???? ????? ??????<\/p>\n<p>56. ????? ????????<\/p>\n<p>57. ????? ?????<\/p>\n<p>58. ????? ??????<\/p>\n<p>59. ????? ?????<\/p>\n<p>60. ????? ????<\/p>\n<p>61. ???? ??????<\/p>\n<p>62. ???? ???????<\/p>\n<p>63. ??? ????<\/p>\n<p>64. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>65. ???? ???????<\/p>\n<p>66. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>67. ??? ?????<\/p>\n<p>68. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>69. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>70. ???? ????<\/p>\n<p>71. ???? ?????<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=W5vv-g_U1G0&amp;feature=player_embedded#%21\">This is a video of the declaration on the National Syrian Council.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=BoIz1YlpGWk\">Another video clip with the names of the members of the council<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mrzine.monthlyreview.org\/2011\/fayyad130911.html\">On the Regime and the Opposition in Syria<\/a> by Nabil Fayyad<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Despite my very negative position on the regime for private and public reasons, the truth is that the regime is very strong, and neither the outside nor the inside were able to make it change its usual stances. This strength does not come from a vacuum. The regime has a broad popular base that supports it at home and abroad, whether out of conviction or opportunism. And ignoring this issue on the part of the Transitional Council is the first indication that the opposition does not know yet the true meaning of democracy. . . .<\/p>\n<p>Nabil Fayyad, an expert in comparative religion and biblical criticism, is a Syrian intellectual who is an outspoken critic of the Syrian regime. He has been arrested and detained by the Syrian authorities in the past. The original Arabic note by Fayyad was first published on a Facebook page administered by Fayyad&#8217;s supporters on 29 August 2011. The English translation above was adapted from Sate Hamza&#8217;s translation published in his blog Syrian Musings on 30 August 2011&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/foreignpolicyblogs.com\/2011\/09\/15\/turkey-and-the-syrian-kurds\/\">Turkey and the Syrian Kurds<\/a> by Wladimir van Wilgenburg<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/vvanwilgenburg.blogspot.com\/2011\/09\/tell-nuances-are-needed-in.html\">Nuances are needed in understanding Christian-Kurdish relations in Syria<\/a> by Wladimir van Wilgenburg<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/news\/syria\/3972.html\">Christian-Kurdish tensions emerge<\/a> by Wladimir van Wilgenburg<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/cablesearch.org\/cable\/view.php?id=09DAMASCUS209&amp;hl=Kurdish\">NORTHEASTERN SYRIA: IT&#8217;S MORE THAN JUST UNHAPPY KURDS<\/a>, 09DAMASCUS209:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Opposition announced a National Council. Increasingly, the opposition is getting organized. Opposition members are scrambling to get their house in order. A number of differences have been put aside in order to make up the National Council on Thursday. But many differences remain and a few opposition groups within the country are trying to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[43,96],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sanctions","category-syria-revolution-2011"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Opposition National Council Formed; Opposition Gets Armed; Building Boom in Syria as Sanctions Bite;  - Syria Comment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/opposition-national-council-formed-opposition-gets-armed-building-boom-in-syria-as-sanctions-bite\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Opposition National Council Formed; Opposition Gets Armed; Building Boom in Syria as Sanctions Bite;  - Syria Comment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Opposition announced a National Council. 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