{"id":11981,"date":"2011-09-13T07:35:15","date_gmt":"2011-09-13T11:35:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=11981"},"modified":"2011-09-13T07:38:05","modified_gmt":"2011-09-13T11:38:05","slug":"stone-age-here-we-come-by-syrian-prometheus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshualandis.com\/blog\/stone-age-here-we-come-by-syrian-prometheus\/","title":{"rendered":"“Stone Age, Here We Come,” by Syrian Prometheus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Stone Age, Here We Come<\/strong>
\nBy Syrian Prometheus* – Opinion Piece
\nFor Syria Comment<\/em>
\nSept 13, 2011<\/p>\n

Anyone who lived through the failed revolution of the 1980s, or the \u201cincidents\u201d, as we call them, will tell you that this current revolution still has a long way to go. Hafiz al-Assad, or \u201cSenior\u201d, used the iron fist for three years before he brought the people back under his firm control. It took a further seven years of severe isolation, privation, and an eventual rapprochement with the US over Iraq (Dessert Storm) before the populace began to experience a bit of relief \u2013 the economy loosened up and a measure of civic comfort returned to everyday life.<\/p>\n

So, is this time different from the eighties? We have not even begun to reach the upper limit of civilian casualties and economic pain that this conflict will exact.<\/p>\n

The economic costs of this revolution will be staggering. International banking institutions have already stopped accepting US dollar payments from Syrian merchants. No consideration is being given to the legitimacy and good reputation of individual merchants. It seems that banks have decided that sanctions against the Syrian government imply an embargo on private citizens as well. This is causing severe commercial dislocation as importers whose businesses are overwhelmingly denominated in US dollars scramble to pay in other currencies. By doing so, they are exposed to foreign exchange risks that they were not counting on. And these costs are only the tip of the iceberg. Merchants are being battered by the collapse in demand. They importing goods in much smaller amounts and selling under more restrictive terms that they used to. Only the most necessary staples have retained their markets. The velocity of money is slowing down to a crawl (much as happened during the financial crisis on the global stage in 2008). Reduced monetary velocity can only be offset by printing money to keep the economy primed to the same level. But, printing money is inflationary (not in a good way in this case). The next stage is likely to be stagnation. There are many bankruptcies looming. This, of course, means layoffs which will bring even less demand and will establish a vicious cycle of contraction, unemployment, and failure.<\/p>\n

Many in Syria believe that this effort at revolution will be different from the revolt of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Conventional wisdom states that the telecommunication technology has changed the playing field, like it did in Egypt, and that the Syrian leadership must undertake a different calculus. The world is watching this time around. Yeah? So what?<\/p>\n

Many in the opposition and the silent majority (cowards like me who yearn for a better future) observe that Syria\u2019s isolation is much more severe than it was during Senior\u2019s era of the eighties. That is true; Europe, the US, and much of the Arab World have declared their opposition to the Syrian regime and demand that the Assads leave power (I would like to know where to). With continued embargoes, sanctions, and economic pressures, the expectation is that the Syrian leadership will either be overcome by fear and throw down its guns, or develop a conscience when it notices that the sanctions are exacting a heavy toll on Syria’s most vulnerable citizens (Much as they did in Iraq between 1991 and 2003).<\/p>\n

Sanctions are going to be a very interesting case study. They will provide a fascinating data base for future historians and policy wonks. Too bad that the Syrian people will pay the price with their innocent blood. In all likelihood, the regime has analyzed its odds carefully, both in terms of its monetary resources and its ability to turn up the level of pain.<\/p>\n

It knows how much money it needs to pay for a protracted war against the population. To borrow a term from the \u201cGodfather\u201d movie, it is time to go to mattresses. The regime will:<\/p>\n