YOU WILL LAUGH A LOT ON THIS DAY..NOT ONLY U. THe WHOLE WORLD WILL LAUGH AT US, u know why? coz our prsidnt has already found a way out, i think he is the smartest among the rest. what you will see on this day is syrians raising up their voices IN SUPPORT not against him!!!
laugh a lot ok?

Dr. Landis.

I came across the following commentary that you may find interesting..

The Syrians are proud of the Bachar el-Assad government: he sided with the Resistance and managed to safeguard his national interests without ever capitulating to pressure.

Most of all, he was able to shield his country from the fate contrived by Washington: either chaos like Iraq or Saudi-style religious despotism. Admittedly, many features of his management style are contested, but he is developing a middle class together with the democratic decision-making processes that underpin it.

Thanks Josh for your insight

I think those who call for change in Syria misunderstand

the history , politics and ethnic/religous make up of the country.

they always go on about 11% alawis and sunnis being the majority.

What they dont realise is that the baath provided opportunities for and educated rural sunnis,

Therefore most rural sunnis are strong supporters of the regime.

From an economic and geographic perspective the majority rules

i.e rural people ( through the baath) rule. People from Golan , palestinian peasants( safad and surrounding villages) and ofcourse syrian peasants comprise the majority and they along with their fellow peasants ( the allawis) occupy important positions.

Who is going to protest and what about I still don’t understand.

Please can someone enlighten me as to what the grievance is?

The regime has always managed to be on the right side of history (Israel, Iran, Turkey, the first and second Irak wars, resistance, the Muslim brotherhood, relations with Arab “moderates”, the US, etc.), there is no reason to think it would not now. The legacy of the Asads is that they continuously did so for 40 years: this is unheard of in politics, let alone middle eastern politics!

Rime Allaf has an excellent piece on CNN

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/02/02/rime.allaf.obama.orientalism/?hpt=C2

“Even when they embrace secular democracy, Arabs may be allowed liberation only if it comes on top of American tanks or when it suits Israel”

Alex,

Do you really believe the US can influence that much what happens in Egypt or Syria? The Arab people hold their destiny in their own hands. It is not the US or Israel which determine who rules in Damascus and you know it. Same in Egypt. The Arabs get what they allow themselves, not what the US gives them.

Cairo is burning. Wake up and support the people. I wonder if the Syrian authority would do that?

AIG is basically saying that the US and Israel have zero influence on what happens in “moderate”, pro-West Arab countries. This is not true. By influencing these corrupt rulers, who suck the blood of their own people, the US and Israel do indeed have a great influence on what happens.

However, I agree with the last statements that the Arabs get what they themselves allow.

FHMETKom,
I don’t think anyone should be laughing or crying, one of the problem with us Syrians is, We think we are smarter than the rest!! And we think we can and will outsmart the rest. this strategy can backfire, and everyone will loss in the process. please keep in mind, the Syrian business elites and the regime have too much invested and much more than the rest and wishs to keep the status quo, the disadvantaged and the poor got nothing to lose and wish to have righteous well deserved postive changes. I still don’t know how long the formula= “have-have not”+ mixture of oppression can be sustained….

AVERROES,

Really, what is the difference between Mubarak and Asad except that Asad spouts “resistance” rhetoric and achieves less economic growth?

Mubarak is in place because Sadat was murdered. Sadat replaced Nasser and chose to move from the Soviet camp to the US camp during the cold war. Overall, it was a good choice. In 1956 Eisenhower “made” Nasser by kicking out Israel and France and the UK out of the Sinai and the Suez Canal. Yet, Eisenhower had very little influence over Nasser who chose to join the Soviet sphere.

The dictators are in place not because the US put them there or because the US supports them. Asad is in place in spite of US sanctions and certainly without US help. Without an invasion, Sadam would still be in power in Iraq. 10 years of sanctions did not help. The only reason the dictators are in place is because the Arab public tolerates them. The only way the US can get rid of a dictator is by invasion.

The US and of course Israel, have little influence when it comes to accelerating or decelerating democratic reforms in Arab countries.

Syria has been unusually successful for decades in jockeying with neighboring countries. The government seems to be fixated on regional affairs, particularly the various “balance of powers”. But none of that matters now. Civil uprisings are not precipitated (or prevented) by foreign policy. They are the result of exasperation with internal civil and economic problems that do not get solved. Several days ago President Assad announced intentions to implement reforms. The entire rumble in Syria’s civil society can be dissipated by concentrating what grieves them, such as on
(1) more employment opportunities for the 18 to 30 age group of men,
(2) more economic and commercial reforms,
(3) raising the standard of living for the poor and very poor,
(4) repressing corruption (corruption corrods trust and loyalty to the government), and
(5) allowing more free speech.
Deal with regional and internal political issues later. As to when, sooner is better than later, as we have seen in Tunisia and Egypt.

President Assad talked about the two different classes of motivators that people have … their personal interests and their ideological interests. This opinion piece in Saudi Asharq Alawsat is mostly impressed by the President’s way of thinking.

«عليك أن تكون مرتبطا بشكل وثيق جدا بمعتقدات الناس. وهذه هي القضية الأساسية. عندما يكون هناك اختلاف بين سياستك ومعتقدات الشعب ومصالحه، سيكون لديك هذا الفراغ الذي يخلق اضطرابات. لذا الناس لا يعتاشون على المصالح فقط، بل يعتاشون على المعتقدات – أيضا -، لا سيما في المناطق المؤدلجة للغاية. إذا كنت لا تفهم الجانب الأيديولوجي للمنطقة، لا يمكنك فهم ما يحدث».

http://www.aawsat.com/leader.asp?section=3&article=606556&issueno=11754

AIG,

Can not generalize. Different leaders have different support systems.

For example, Saddam ruled by a mixture of satisfying Sunni Iraqis, secular Iraqis, Baathists (there were many) and the poor nationalists who believed that he was really doing well fighting for the liberation of Palestine. Add to this list of rewards, his reputation for savagery that worked as a deterrent.

Mubarak’s main support system was his relation with the United States and Israel.

President Assad’s support system is very complex. But I am not discounting the absolute need to do what needs to be done to take care of Syria’s young population. This includes more effective economic reforms and more freedom of speech.

However, if you read Arab pres that normally is not friendly to Syria, you will realize that Assad has two distinct advantages: he is personally liked by Syrians and many Arabs, and he is considered to be highly successful as perhaps the only Arab strategist who can be a match to Israel and its friends.

The fact he did not recover the Golan during the ten years he has been in power is not disappointing many people. Just like Syrians know that it takes 20 years of school and university before you can be a heart surgeon, they also know that it takes patience to get America’s darling, Israel to give back the Golan Heights without going to war.

Here is a reminder from Zvi Bar’el (again) .. it will show you a main difference between Assad and Mubarak: Assad is perceived to be on his way to be a winner, … Mubarak lost:

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/a-new-regional-order-1.251964

“The two elderly leaders, Abdullah at 84 and Mubarak at 80, are seeing the region they used to lead slipping out of their grip and into that of new players – mavericks over whom they have no sway, bright new stars in the Middle Eastern skies. These include Syrian President Bashar Assad, who is half their age; Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is repositioning the former Ottoman Empire into power; and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is blazing like a menacing meteor over the Arab Middle East. The cardinal Middle Eastern conflicts – between Israel and the Palestinians, within the Palestinian Authority, between Syria and Lebanon, between Syria and Israel, the Iraqi conflict, the Iranian threat – they have all changed hands and are now under new management.””…But the change in the Middle East goes deeper than a personnel turnover in the ranks of those running the strategic regional game. A new Middle Eastern regional order is in the making.”

The dictators are in place not because the US put them there or because the US supports them. Asad is in place in spite of US sanctions and certainly without US help. Without an invasion, Sadam would still be in power in Iraq. 10 years of sanctions did not help. The only reason the dictators are in place is because the Arab public tolerates them. The only way the US can get rid of a dictator is by invasion.

The US and of course Israel, have little influence when it comes to accelerating or decelerating democratic reforms in Arab countries.

AIG have you read any books of the history after WW2? It is naive to claim that USA has no role how many countries in the world have been and are ruled. USA has over 700 military bases in 120 countries. Certainly not for hunting Al Qaida terrorists. For USA has been always most important that the raw materials come cheaply, markets are opened and labour is offered with low prices to US companies. Obedience has always been number one in relations with USA. Democracy for the people has only been a propaganda weapon aimed to US domestic audience.

AIG USA has installed (trained, paid, armed, organized and planned) to power numerous generals and dictators around the world. In Latin America, Asia and even in Europe. Alone the “help” USA gave for Suharto did cost over one million lives. Some even estimate the amount of dead to three million. US help was not only money, bullets and weapons, USA also gave name lists of the people it wanted to vanish. The people in those lists represented the educated nationalistic class, not only communists. When people kicked out generals Suharto and Marcos in Philippines it was a equal moment of panic for USA than we are witnessing now.

Syrian has grievences
1-Lack of freedom and democracy
2-severe corruptions
3-Monopoly of the rule by Asad family and Alawites
4- increase level of poverty,salaries are not enough to survive
5 lack of available jobs for the young and educated
6-Lack of any action or progress on the Golan Height
Assad has on his side,
1- He is young and likable
2-the people like his stand as far as HA,Hamas And Iraq
I do not think he will use strong hand against the demonstrators, but I doubt that day of rage will be successful.

The US and of course Israel, have little influence when it comes to accelerating or decelerating democratic reforms in Arab countries.

AIG,

Yes, but most Arabs will disagree with you, especially on this website. Arab Disenfrachisement Dogma™ (ADD) stipulates that all bad things that befall Arabs is someone else’s fault.

إسرائيل تسحب كل رعاياها من مصر , ما عدا حسنى مبارك

Alex,

Mubarak’s support base is not the US or Israel, it is the Egyptian army and the Egyptian civil service.

As for Asad, if he is so liked, why does he need such a police state? His complete shutdown of free speech shows that he is afraid to let people voice their true opinions. As for his strategy countering Israel, it does not seem to be successful at all. The Golan is in Israeli hands and the Lebanese border will be quiet for 5 years this summer. Never in the history of Israel has our northern border been so quiet for so long. So, he has lost all military leverage over Israel. As for the US sanctions, they are still in place. And during his reign the gap in wealth and technology between Israel and Syria has widened significantly.

I agree though that Syrians seems to if not want then at least accept Asad. They will have to live with their choice.

ATASSI

i don’t care about the investments you are talking about . these investments are only increasing makhlouf’s bank account and the rest of the family. i am a normal citizen ,i have the right to have the normal basic needs ( education – household-medication ) and the government is required to provide this to every syrian .
if you not living in syria then try it , go live not visit and leave.
Public schools are getting worse, not much families trust their children in the public school anymore and the private schools are waaaaaaaaay too expensive.
universities systems is moving from the free phase to the pre- paid phase.
hospitals…! no need to describe… any doctor would ask for at least 500 liras just to check you.
no need to talk about the prices of every single thing in syria. every thing have gone ten times than it used to 7 years ago except for the employee salaries.
could you tell me why there is this on – going interior immigration into Damascus??
could you tell me why there is no election presidential system in our Constitution till now!! ? we are in the 21st century and we still don’t have presidential election !!what we have is استفتاء!!
وليس انتخابات
please don’t tell me that the world will not laugh at us on Feb 5th
i already know that orders will come to ministries and schools for students and employees to march to the president ‘s house and call for his name…!! the way it used to back in his father ‘s time .if you spent your childhood in syria, you must remember how orders would come for students to march in the streets to salut the president.
PLEASE PLEASE stop defending “Bashar” i don’t care if his exterior policy is with PAlastine , why should i thank him for this??? this is the normal natural thing!!! why we arabs have this habit that if presidents do some thing good, then we should thankt them ..WHY .. he is doing his job…
just look at the interior policy the interior situation , we are on our way to become a second Egypt. the middle class is vanishing , the society is staring to have this new class , THE UNDER POVERTY LINE PEOPLE.
and the poor are directed by the religious figures and this weekly stupid meetings. the syrians elite are immigrating out side Syria because they can’t stand seeing this whole situation .
if anyone speaks then he is not Syrian check this , the show has started: http://samaswa.com/?p=2300
or he would be accused of being pushed by Americans,
i am syrian I AM SYRIAN i want a respectful life. i have the right to have a respectful damn life. STOP DEFENDING BASHAR AND HIS REGIME . i hate it when they say SOURIA Al ASSAD , it makes me crazy . SOURYIA IS NOT FOR ASSAD FAMILY . SOURIYA IS FOR ME FOR US .

Lak even if you died in syria and need to be buried , you need a fortune !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 250 hundred thousands liras!!!!!!

Compare to Egypt, Syria has much more dangers to face:

Israel’s spies network found in Lebanon, hundred of thousands of iraqi refugees, many of them could be terrorists, hundred of thousands of frustrated palestinians refugees, restless kurds, fearful christian minorities watching what is happening in Sunni Egypt, land occupied by Israel that is eager to create internal unrest so they keep the Golan , western sanctions that contribute to cripple the economy and more..
This would well justify that Syria needs a strong secret police and political freedom of expression should be limited.
It is sad but understandable! Wouldn’t you do the same in such circumstances? China does it for much less dangers.

FHMETKOm,

Thank you for your story. Here on Syria Comment, sometimes we hear too much from Syrians who live outside of Syria, anti-Israel Israelis, Finns who hate Jews and the US, Islamists, or privledged Arabist academics who don’t live among “the little people” but are always there to take up for President-for-Life, Bashar Assad.

Your post is breath of fresh air. Good luck.

Why isn’t Why-Discuss “Jubilant”?

This would well justify that Syria needs a strong secret police and political freedom of expression should be limited.

Why-Discuss,

That flies in the face of what everyone on this website has been saying all these years, namely, that Bashar Assad is loved by his people.

In fact, Professor Josh’s last thread from a couple of days ago states:

Syrian Authorities Jubilant about Prospect of Mubarak’s Fall and Shifting Balance of Power in the Region

So what are you so concerned about?

… hundred of thousands of iraqi refugees, many of them could be terrorists…

Please define the term “terrorists”. Just for fun;)

We don’t necessarily want total change of the government, but perhaps a shift towards democracy and an opening up of the labor market can change the whole situation in Syria, indeed we don’t want a civil war like in Iraq, but I don’t believe the Assad regime really realizes that, I think all they care about is power “and to their alawi minority” and to keep the status quo like that for always, that’s how it has always been, and that’s how it will be if the people will not march to change it, not necessarily violently. This is a historical opportunity for us. Look at Tunisia, Tunisia has been looked at by western media and standards as a success during Ben Ali’s reign, they said, according to western academics, it’s progressive, relatively rich, and a booming touristic sector, but that was just western propaganda, the truth was the opposite. Even though Tunisia is more related to the west than Syria yet it collapsed very fast and was the beginning of the domino reaction. I think it’s not objective to say that Syria is witnessing change “but it’s slow”, I don’t buy that, that’s propaganda of the Assad Regime

[…] In Syrien leben nach wie vor über einer Million Flüchtlinge aus dem Nachbarland Irak. Landis weiter: „No Syrian wants to risk civil war. Freedom in Iraq has spelled disaster for the country’s […]

[…] https://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=8255 […]

Fhmetkom you hit the nail right on the head, bravo !!1

The rest of the world should and must understand that Syrians truly love their president and they are not willing to rise up against him. He is very good with his people and that STUPID facebook group is a joke; it is made by a couple of haters and outsiders.

Syria loves Bashar Al-Assad.

22. AKBAR PALACE said:

Please define the term “terrorists”. Just for fun;)

How about the IRGUN ZVAI LUMI…..THE STERN GANG…..OR THIS GUY who is still in a coma.

“Everybody has to move, run and grab as many (Palestinian) hilltops as they can to enlarge the (Jewish) settlements because everything we take now will stay ours…Everything we don’t grab will go to them.” — Ariel Sharon, Israeli Foreign Minister, addressing a meeting of the Tsomet Party, Agence France Presse, Nov. 15, 1998.

Ghat Terrorism?

Ghat,

We all know that Arabs can’t be terrorists, only Jews can. That is a given here on Syria Comment.

I just wanted a simple definition. Why don’t you be bold, and take a “stab” at it…;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_Sharon

29. AKBAR PALACE said:

I just wanted a simple definition. Why don’t you be bold, and take a “stab” at it…;)

why don’t you take a stab at it? or are you too “special or scared”?

A must read review of Israel’s peaceful efforts in Egypt.

The office of israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered their counterpart in the Egyptian government, Omar Suleiman, also head of Egyptian intelligence, to send death squad units, the groups of militant zionist murderers who wear Arab civilian clothes also known as “mistaaravim”, to infiltrate the protesters in Egypt in order to assassinate the leaders of the opposition and the revolutionary movement who take part in the protests against the dictatorial regime of Hosni Mubarak and his thugs.

The israeli hebrew newspaper “Maariv” revealed yesterday that high-level officials in the office of Benjamin Netanyahu carried out in recent days a series of phone calls with Suleiman and advised him about the urgent necessity of “security” coordination on several issues between Israel and Egypt. The newspaper added that the prevention of smuggling weapons through the tunnels on Egypt’s border to the Gaza Strip was only one issue among others which the officials discussed.

The Quds Press agency, quoting Israeli sources, said that the jewish zionist state had offered General Omar Suleiman, now appointed “vice-President of the Republic of Egypt” by dictator Mubarak, to put “all potential resources” at his disposal to “protect the regime in Egypt”, including the implementation of the “specific operations to pre-empt the popular revolution”, and asked him to work together to prevent what they called “smuggling weapon to the Gaza Strip”

Ghat,

Please share with us your source, for this “must read review” in comment 31. The first paragraph seems to be supported by the last two, but clearly it has nothing to do with them. It is an interesting tactic, though, to make a claim that can’t be substantiated, and to quickly wrap it up by things that can, or that make more sense. The last two paragraphs talk about the tunnels, cooperation over which has taken place for years. Sending Zionist assassination squads dressed as Arabs to help the Egyptian leadership assassinate its own citizens, is very interesting.

Tell me, by the way, why can’t Egypt send its own assassination squads, also dressed as Arabs, to assassinate its own citizens? Why do they need us? Or is it a question of experience?

Next you’ll tell us the Iranian leadership has asked Israel to send Zionist squads dressed as Sunni Muslims to assassinate Shia in Southern Lebanon, just to give Iran an excuse to come in “to help support our brothers…”

Without Hafez & Bashar Al-Assad, God help Syria! The country would have been eaten alive.

But let’s open up Syria shall we? Let’s pretend it’s an island like Australia, or a country without very troubled borders like the U.S.

Now, whose brand of democracy shall we take? How about the kind that gives the well-intentioned President virtually no power, such as what has nerfed Obama’s ability to realise his visions of peace? Or that gives the reckless President full power, such as Bush going into Iraq despite the significant protests of congress and lack of evidence?

What about the type that consistently elects murderous governments for a span of over 60 years, such as the one that kills people, steals their lands, and denies them their basic human rights?

Or perhaps the paper-thin democracy of countries like Jordan, who, despite the level and rank of corruption, is allowed to be considered as such because it allies itself strategically with the U.S and/or Israel?

Now if we were pretending to be Australia, people can speak out against the government, protest in the streets, organise on the internet, etc., without too much coming of it. Even if it causes some people to resign, the country will run pretty much the same.

Substitute the same scenario into Syria, and you’d have the rabid hate-spouting portion of the Muslim Brotherhood fueling the fires of sectarianism and religious oppression into a full blown uprising and civil war. Not to mention the chaos and insurgency that would be organised by outside interests that would benefit from having the thorn of Assad run Syria plucked from their sides.

That was quite drastic, but let’s do the same on the other side. What if the unthinkable and unrealistic happened, and a different leader was peacefully elected with a transition smoother than silk? I’m sure the next arab leader of Syria would uphold strong principles under intense pressure for the sake of their country and people, without looking to their personal interests. I mean, there are plenty of examples of this, for instance there’s ….., and there’s ….. ….. yeah right.

Well, how about we keep President Bashar for a moment, but tell him how he could better do his job. Normally, you might think this a difficult task, given that we are not privvy to the vast, various and confidential sources of information the he bases his decisions off, but let’s just ignore that.

So the question becomes, how can he turn his country into a democracy, allow open criticism of the regime, appease the West into removing sanctions so that economy and jobs can receive a boost, and still guarantee the safety and security of his people, and the stability of the country?

If you can answer this, please include how the situation with Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel should be dealt with to avoid strife in the country while still protecting the rights of the people.
Also, please mention how he can avoid turning into another Lebanon, with the country full of foreign spies in a position to cause division and instability.

Nevermind though that the President is actively improving relations with various countries not only for political support, but for trade opportunities for his people. Also, just ignore the beneficial changes that have happened for the country over the years, and just focus on the problems in such a way that would call for the overthrow of the government, or putting the country in danger of instability and civil war. Because everywhere else is perfect right?

In closing, yes there are problems, and yes criticism of government is normally a natural right. However, the purpose of criticism is to cause a change for the better. When the criticism puts the country and people in danger, then it goes against the entire point and purpose of criticising.

There will be NO “Day of Rage” in Syria, there are no similarities between the The Governments of Syria and Egypt (Other than what we here in the West).

And I hate to go there but here it is, “Hama is still in the minds of the majority of Syrians”. If I was a Syrian Activist at the moment I would wait till Egypt falls and it will, if the most populous country in the Mid East falls to Demeocracy, I will gladly ask any Zionist to parade the term ‘ We are the only Democracy in the Middle East”.

the dectator will fall
#1 his deal with Israel has beem exposed since sharon called bush to make him change his mind of invading syria so we all know that assad is very important to keep israel safe ,,the rest of syria know
#2 his bigest frend Iran will fall soon after the US invasion if the embargo didnot work
#3 after what happened in cairo and if things changed, soon the resetant to the nazy police estate in syria will pick up speed and expose assad gangs for the mass killing of syrians since 1963
#4 I dont understand why anyone will think that this mafia of makhloof shoket and assad will last for ever read the history Ex romania tunisia iraq phlipin soon yamen and algeria
#5 I chlenge you and everyone who loves assad make count of all the
humans that assad killed since 1963 and compare it with the total syrians killed by israiel …… yes thats your answer

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