Eid Mubarak

Eid Fitr Mobarak to all Syrians and non Syrian, (at your request Shami)

yen3ad 3alek jad effendi.kelak zo2

Dear Shami,
Inshalla nshofak 3rees and father in the next Fitr, please send your family and your ‘beloved’ ones all my best 🙂

Eid Mubarak and Shana Tova as well (Happy New Jewish Year) to all SC regulars. Let’s hope that against all odds this will be a year of peace and prosperity to our homelands and adopting countries…

France working to resume Israel-Syria talks
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3952189,00.html

President Sarkozy’s emissary to meet with President Assad in Damascus next week, discuss renewal of negotiations with Jerusalem. US special envoy Mitchell to visit Syrian capital as well for update on progress made in direct talks between Israel, Palestinians

Roee Nahmias
Published: 09.10.10, 11:53 / Israel News

Peace talks with Syria in the horizon? French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s emissary Jean-Claude Cousseran will visit Damascus in the coming days, where he will meet with Syrian officials and discuss the resumption of peace talks with Israel, Lebanese newspaper as-Safir reported Friday.

According to the report, Cousseran will arrive in Damascus early next week and meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Foreign Minister Walid Moallem.

Cousseran’s efforts will focus on understanding the Syrian stand in terms of “ways of action on the Syrian channel” and helping “restart this channel by pressuring the Israeli side to enter negotiations.”

According to estimates, France will seek the aid of the Turkish mediator from the latest round of talks between Jerusalem and Damascus, at least at first.

The Lebanese newspaper reported that should the efforts bear fruit, the main sponsor of the talks would be the United States. In the meantime, however, the American administration is focusing on the Palestinian channel, letting France operate on the Syrian channel.

The newspaper added that US special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell would arrive in Damascus next week to brief the Syrians on the direct talks launched between Israel and the Palestinians in Washington and ask for their support.

According to the report, Mitchell will stress the American administration’s commitment to restart the process on the Syrian channel. Sources in Damascus told the newspaper, however, that they did not expect “effective efforts” on this channel before the US Congress elections in November.

Habibi Jad ,i’m already happy married man since 5 months ago ,all my best wishes for you ,your familly and friends.

Eid Ramadan Mubarak and happy New Jewish Year to all SC readers and commentators.

Ehsani2,

Thanks for showing Syria’s benchmarking on the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index. It is not an impressive showing.

The list of negatives you listed is formidable. It is extremely challenging to rectify. Huge sums of money, years if not decades of dedicated had work, and fundamental changes in the laws and the tenets of the country’s system of governance will be needed if Syria is to improve the “extent of staff training” (at 139, ranked last ), “company spending on R&D” (137), “university-industry collaboration in R&D”, “prevalence of foreign ownership”, “female participation in the labor force” (136), “transparency of government policy making”, (133-134), “strength of auditing and reporting standards”, “reliance on professional management”, “the legal rights index”, “burden of customs procedures”, and “internet access to schools” (131).

I would like to comment on what might be compromising the score of a very important factor; namely, “transparency of government policy making”, which in turn has the added effect of creating the environment that compromises the “strength of auditing and reporting standards”. Then, I would like to make two policy suggestions. Finally, I would like to supplement EHSANI’s list by showing Syria’s scores on the World Bank’s six Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) for 2008.

Syria’s system of governance, undemocratic non-participatory (save for a narrow ruling group), does not lend itself to promoting a culture of transparency in government policy-making let alone instituting strong auditing and reporting standards. In the absence of an independent parliament with robust watchdog committees to bring to task every and all cabinet ministers (including the defense minister and security chiefs), opposition political parties, a free press, environmental and other egalitarian non-governmental organizations it is impossible to introduce a balancing perspective into government’s setting of national priorities, government’s allocation of scarce resources, transparency in the nation’s finances, and enforcing the law equally on all, including members of the ruling group.

Compounding pressure on Syria’s modest resources is the country’s huge 3% annual rate of population growth:

http://syriasteps.com/?d=127&id=56094&in_main_page=1

With such a high population growth rate, it would be impossible to stop the current deterioration in public services or enhance per capita GDP unless a sizable and sustained investment for years to come, may be decades, will be made to improve the country’s infrastructure starting with a constant flow of clean household water, efficient sewage treatment systems, uninterrupted electricity supply, communication networks of all kinds, upgrading and increasing the number of hospitals, universities, schools etc.

To meet the challenge, a re-allocation of Syria’s modest resources is inevitable. A root and branch rethinking of national priorities is urgently needed.

At the top of the list is military spending. Syria’s military should receive a much smaller piece from the GDP pie. Despite the tens of billions spent over the past four decades (true figures were never released), Syria’s military has failed to become a factor in the regional balance of military power. Its poor performance against Israel confirms. This particular imbalance will not change even if Syria allocates all of its GDP to the military.

Smaller military spending would release badly needed resources to invest in raising the value of Syria’s human capital. In a generation or two, better educated, healthier, and more professional soldiers will replace the current stock of poorly educated rank and file.

Investment in irrigation agriculture, which uses huge volumes of Syria’s finite water resources should be shifted to investing in low water using manufacturing industries based on rate of return criterion instead of political convenience or personal interest. Foreign currencies generated from exporting manufactured products, or from reducing the importation of manufactured goods, would be used to import foodstuffs. Agriculture in arid/semi arid Syria should be left to rain fed lands, with investment in modern technology to improve the yield and quality of rain fed produce. It should be remembered that irrigation schemes have left the water balance in five of Syria’s seven basins negative. In addition to the billions of dollars wasted on white elephant irrigation schemes, what a terrible loss of water that is!

To deal with EHSANI’s list, tons of reform measures may be added, including, yes, a modern family law to replace the current Sharia’s based primitive seventh century personal status law to elevate the legal standing and societal treatment of Syria’s women so that they may become able to make a better contribution to the economy. Also, reforming the educational curriculum is important to emphasize modern science, enhance intellectual reasoning, encourage probing into taboo subjects, and the teaching of ethics and comparative religious thought to all students in place of current textbooks.

I would like now to show the scores Syria achieved on the World Bank’s six Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) for 2008:

http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp

The list magnifies the challenges Syria faces to reform its system of governance.

To put Syria’s score in perspective, I’ll state first the score that a high achiever like Austria attained then Syria’s score:

Voice and Accountability: 94 (Austria), 5 (Syria)
Political stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism: 96, 27
Government Effectiveness: 1.71, -0.67
Regulatory quality: 94, 13
Rule of law: 95, 34
Control of Corruption: 94, 12

Elie

Elie,

Great post thank you

Since you advocate calling a spade a spade, do you think that the Syrian regime is sectarian? i.e. based on or advocates the interest of certain sects. Also, in your view, how much of an impact the minority rule has on provoking sectarian feelings and islamist ideology among sunni Syrians? Some point out that the introduction of Asma Akhras into public life have been effective in tempering these feelings.

Dear Dr. ELie,
As usual, excellent article, Thank you.
The main 3 issues Syria needs to concentrate on are It’s Human Resources, Natural Resources and Justice System.
and as you wrote we need to start with building a strong justice system that we all believe in and trust instead of the corrupted one we have at the moment.
Encourage Syrians, (Men and Women) to free their imaginations and start giving what they are capable of not what they have to do.
Save and protect Syrian environment and natural resource by all means, natural resources and Syrian land are not only for our generation to use, they are our main and only treasure that we must save and keep for the coming generations.
Thank you and Ehsani again for pointing out our country’s weak points, this is always the first step in evaluating of what we don’t have and were are our problems, so we can work to fix them one by one.

Dear Majhool,
Justice, doesn’t and shouldn’t have any religion or sect
Economy, doesn’t and shouldn’t have any religion or sect
Environment, doesn’t and shouldn’t have any religion or sect
so our Syrian fellow, he/she shouldn’t have any religion or sect when he/she wants of improve Syria.
We all need to work on that if we truly want Syria to be for all and every Syrian regardless of his/her religion or sect, we have plenty of bad example and memory of what will happen when we spread this dangerous sectarian way of thinking.
I’m not defending the regime at all but I don’t see the point of what you have behind your questions to Elie and I don’t see any reason to include the first lady in your comment, unless you are separating Syrians between Sunni and Alawi and asking for this specific issue as the main problem not the horrible mismanagement we have.

Interesting revelation in time for holidays.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3952077,00.html

Dearest Jad,

I am in full agreement with you that justice, economy, etc.. should not be driven by sectarian interest. In fact that’s the my wish.

To get to this point we have to address secterian politics, right? So first we have to acknowledge it and talk about it, no?

No need to dig as to my motives. I fear that sectarian monopoly on power in Syria make islamists stronger. and make our political system unstable.

Its actually not fair that you question my motives when you and others can answer the questions in very technical, factual, and professional way.

Dear Majhool,
I’m in agreement with your two questions in your last comment.
My intention wasn’t questioning you at all, 
it was a general points from my side about your comment to Dr. Elie.
I apologize if it was understood as a comment about you personally. 
It wasn’t. It was a statements in the form of questions that’s all 🙂
have a nice evening Majhool afandi 🙂

Ehsani
You always has good,informative article and point to important issues,thanks:
But I have to respond to the suggestion that military spending must be reduced, Syria is front and resistant state against the evil enemy,Israel,the cause of most evil in the middle east,while we can not achieve balance of power,due to huge american aids to Israel,both in money and intelligence and other ways,Syria must keep military spending high ,we need to strengthen alliance too,if it was not for Syria Israel would have won long time ago, I do think that Syria must get aids from rich Arabic states to strengthen the military more.
Tomorrow.we will hear from urkey a very important news.

Thanks Jad, BTW, you are in CA no??

MAJHOOL,

Your questions in 8 are direct!

Jad (in 9) said: “I don’t see the point of what you have behind your questions to Elie”.

Nonetheless, I’ll reply.

You said: “do you think that the Syrian regime is sectarian? i.e. based on or advocates the interest of certain sects.”

For a proper reply, and at the risk of being boring, a bit of history is helpful, especially as relates to the change in Syria’s power structure during the twentieth century.

Syria’s Sunni wealthy urban families and notables enjoyed a privileged position under the stratified society of Ottoman rule (1517–1918). The French mandate (1920–1946) changed that. Syria’s urban elite supported Sharif Hussein’s revolt in 1916 in the hope that they might govern an independent Syria should the Ottomans get defeated in WW1. However, they failed to achieve their dream after Turkey’s defeat. France and Britain had secretly agreed in the Sykes-Picot Agreement to govern natural Syria.

Syria’s embittered urban elite led the nationalist resistance against French rule. France had, as a result, to rely on Syria’s ethnic and religious minorities to govern. The French recruited infantry and cavalry units composed exclusively of Alawites, Armenians, Circassians, Druze, Ismailis, and Kurds.

After the nationalists forced France out of Syria in 1946, Damascus’ early governments were composed of mainly the country’s urban notables. The new leaders resented a Syrian army composed of ethnic and religious minorities, left behind by the French. Between 1946 and 1948, they reduced the size of the army from 7,500 men to 2,500 men (Philip Khoury, Syria and the French Mandate: The Politics of Arab Nationalism, 1920-1945, Princeton University Press, 1987, p. 81). Army commanders reciprocated the resentment, and the army became politicized. During the next fifteen years, many young Alawites joined he Homs military academy for free education and board. On March 8, 1963, Hafiz Asad and his comrades seized power.

For centuries the mountainous region that was home to the Alawites was destitute. Poverty was so abject that poor Alawite families were compelled to send their daughters, sometimes as young as ten years of age, to live and work for paltry wages as housemaids in the homes of affluent non-Alawite families in nearby cities. While other parts of rural Syria were also poor, the Alawite region was the worst; villages had no electricity, running household water, or sanitation. Elementary schools were scarce; intermediate schools were rare; and high schools were only available in large urban centres. Hospitals were nonexistent. Most villages were accessible only by horse or donkey. The region’s main source of income was tobacco, but the high brokerage fees charged by wholesalers in Latakia left little profit for the growers.

It is not surprising, therefore, if Mr. Asad Sr. would act to rectify decades of suffering and neglect by Damascus of his people.

Syria’s Sunni urban elites resented their loss of power, particularly to the downtrodden adherents of a sect viewed by most Sunnis as heretics and nefarious. Ibn Taymiyya (1263-1328) condemned the Nusayris (Alawites) as being more dangerous than the Christians, and encouraged Muslims to conduct jihad against them (Patrick Seale, Asad, the Struggle for the Middle East, Berkeley, California: University of California Press, 1995, p. 10).

Within Syria’s generally moderate Sunni community an activist orthodox minority gathered around the Muslim Brothers organization. The aim of this minority has from day one been the removal of Alawite rule by force. As you know, this minority wreaked havoc, particularly, between 1977 and 1982 when they assassinated, burned, and robbed. Among their 300 or so victims were some of the best-known military and intellectual symbols of the Asad regime. Then came Hama in 1982.

Facing Sunni militancy Mr. Asad handpicked trusted Alawite commanders for the security services and the military. Sunnis were given many senior positions in the cabinet and elsewhere, though not in the security services.

As a tiny ruling minority facing mortal danger at the hand of Sunni jihadists, Alawite officers must cling together. The relationship between the president and his commanders is one of mutual dependency. The allegiance of the commanders to the president must be personal and total. The officers protect the regime in return for wealth and power. The president has little choice but to tolerate the excesses and the sleaze of his protectors. Corruption is the glue that keeps the power group in such a system of governance together. Remove the glue and the whole deck of cards crumbles.

Therefore, the answer is in the affirmative to your question: “do you think that the Syrian regime is sectarian? i.e. based on or advocates the interest of certain sects”. However, one should remember that this situation is a product of Syria’s Sunni realities.

You asked: “Also, in your view, how much of an impact the minority rule has on provoking sectarian feelings and islamist ideology among sunni Syrians?”

The picture just painted should provide the answer. Yes, Syria’s narrow power pyramid, its non-participatory system of governance, and corrupt privileged officer class and Baath Party operatives and their cronies who habitually violate the law with impunity do provoke “sectarian feeling and Islamist ideology among Sunni Syrians”.

In my answer no. 25 to you, MAJHOOL:

https://joshualandis.com/blog/?p=7147&cp=all#comments

I said that there are a number of measures Syria’s government ought to take that would quickly have a favorable effect to lessen the alienation and distrust that many feel today. Among these are the narrowing of the huge disparities of wealth in the country (tax top earners heavily) created through corruption (prosecute a few big cases) and violation of the law with impunity (throw in jail a few convicted major violators regardless how big they might be), raise the salaries of government’s lower earners and pensioners (fund through cutting military spending and/or white elephant irrigation projects), take serious steps to alleviate water and electricity shortages (fund through cutting military spending and/or white elephant irrigation projects) relax the state of emergency law, allow a bit of freedom of expression to opponents, reduce the degree of the cult of personality surrounding the Asad family.

Needless to say, the Asads are not new to excising compatriots. Upon seizing power in 1970, Hafiz Assad jailed Salah Jadid in the notorious Mazzeh Prison, where he remained without trial until shortly before his death in 1993. Closer to home, brother Rifaat Asad was banished in 1984. A similar fate should be exacted today against a few of the regime’s sacred cows for their illicit financial gains. Such action would go a long way to assuage peoples’ frustration and anger (just read some of the comments in Arabic on Syrian Website) and slow the current dangerous slide toward religious orthodoxy and militancy.

Syria’s accommodation of Sunnis has been exploited by the minority of Islamist activists. This minority, armed with boundless religious fervor and dogma is on a determined mission to cease power. To avoid another Hama, Syria needs to be more assertive in dealing with this group. That the Muslim Brothers organization and sympathizers started of late to call for democratic elections is farcical. No sooner that they would win the keys to city hall than they’ll declare that their mission is divine and throw the keys away. The Brotherhood proclaims Islam as a “creed and state, book and sword, and a way of life.” Its theme is, “Allah is our objective. The Messenger is our leader. The Quran is our law. Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.”

You said: “Some point out that the introduction of Asma Akhras into public life have been effective in tempering these feelings.”

Mrs. Asma Asad is a credit to Syria. She imparts a wonderful image of liberalism, sophistication, modernity, and dignity. If Mrs. Asad’s introduction into public life has been effective in “tempering these feelings” that’s great. Images aside, however, the fact remains that under Syria’s personal status law Mrs. Asad’s witness statement or weight of testimony in a Syrian Shari’a court of law is equal to half of that of a man, who might be illiterate. Such abuse of women in this day in age is shameful and must be ended.

Elie

Elie,

Thank you for your answers. They are by far the most candid on the issue in SC forums.

However, I did not see power sharing with the majority moderate sunnis in your short list!! This approach of ( Pain relief bills) turn the majority sunnis into ahl Zemmah, or second class citizens!! I find it hard to swallow that you could advocate such a thing.

Also, Rif’at and Jadid were not sidlined because of their corrpution. It was done becasue they were competing for power.

The secterian nature of politics in Syria is by far the most destablizing force in the society and must be addressed. President Bashar, has done a steller job in making the majority feel at ease. However, short of a miracle this would not last for too long.

Ehsani,

Thank you , You do not just inform us but also educate us , It looks to me that most of the problem come from lack of foreign companies that can provide internship and training , with new companies doing work in Syria , that might change , the other part about lack of R&D and lack of cooperation between companies and Universities in R&D comes from the poor compensation that are given to University teachers that need to have private work to make up for lack of income from teaching , having better compensations and bonus system for innovations can change that ,

What do think about improving Syria’s ranking and how they should do that ,

Elie Said:
“”Therefore, the answer is in the affirmative to your question: “do you think that the Syrian regime is sectarian? i.e. based on or advocates the interest of certain sects”.””

I fully disagree with you Elie. The Syrian regime is not sectarian and it does not advocate the interest of certain sects. I, as a Sunni by birth, have traveled to many places inhabited by Syria minorities. I, to my surprise, found that Alawites villages, not counting few villas of senior military officers, are still some of the poorest in the country. Also, Alawites are still living in rundown ghettos around Damascus. Most Alawites can only work as low-paid soldiers or government employees after graduating from college. The Syrian economy and businesses are still controlled by Sunni families. That was the way Assad Senior planned it and that is still the way it is now. Also, most ministries are not controlled by Alawites. Assad Senior created many ministries and had the habit of rotating many community leaders into them (Sunni, Druze, Christians, tribes…). So in a way Assad Senior was very clever in making sure everyone got a piece of the pie (corruption for all). That was how he kept the piece and prevented the Muslim Brothers from getting full community support.

Yes, the military is mainly controlled by a close circuit of loyal and fattened Alawites officers. Then what do you expect? How can one prevent a constant internal threat of the military? Is it any different in Jordan or Saudi or Serbia or Tailand,…

included syria is an artificial state separated from jordan, lebanon, palestine, and possibly part of iraq. large coastline, major cities, tourist sites, holy sites, it was created to not be a success.

loss of the julan.

constant pressure, sanctions, threats of attack from the west and israel as the west measures syria by western standards.

how many millions of refugees from iraq?

an artificial country under constant attack/pressure cannot develop, evolve normally

MAJHOOL,

Your kind words are appreciated. Thanks.

You said to me: “I did not see power sharing with the majority moderate sunnis in your short list!! This approach of ( Pain relief bills) turn the majority sunnis into ahl Zemmah, or second class citizens!! I find it hard to swallow that you could advocate such a thing.”

I have re-read my comment no. 15 carefully in search of such a statement (for fear of ambiguity), but could not find a word to this effect, even remotely! Indeed, such a notion towards the majority of the population would be terribly unfair.

You said: “Rif’at and Jadid were not sidlined because of their corrpution. It was done becasue they were competing for power.”

Bringing those two cases was merely to show that the Asads are not strangers to dealing firmly with whoever poses serious threat to their authority.

MR. PRESIDENT,

You said: “I fully disagree with you Elie… I, to my surprise, found that Alawites villages, not counting few villas of senior military officers, are still some of the poorest in the country. Also, Alawites are still living in rundown ghettos around Damascus. Most Alawites can only work as low-paid soldiers or government employees after graduating from college. The Syrian economy and businesses are still controlled by Sunni families… Also, most ministries are not controlled by Alawites.”

I suppose your statement relates to my saying that: It is not surprising, therefore, if Mr. Asad Sr. would act to rectify decades of suffering and neglect by Damascus of his people.

Aside from this statement, there is nothing in what I wrote to imply that I believe that Alawite villages are the richest in the country or Alawites are living in rich neighborhoods near Damascus or most alawites only work in high paying military or government jobs after graduating from college. I did not say that the Syrian economy and businesses are controlled by Alawite families. Also, I did not say that most ministries are controlled by Alawites. Actually, I said: Sunnis were given many senior positions in the cabinet and elsewhere, though not in the security services. This last statement of mine (though not in the security services) agrees with what you said: “Yes, the military is mainly controlled by a close circuit of loyal and fattened Alawites officers.”

As such, I don’t see where we disagree.

Elie

Statements about Muslims/islam are now unconfined to select experts.

As the saying goes every tom. dick, harry or peretz are now the knowledgeable ones:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/09/tnr-editor-defends-fact-claim-muslim-life-cheap/