My guess is that the 1 million Iraqi Sunni refugees now in Syria are very pro-regime. With this counterweight, Assad can afford to complete ignore the opposition.

You don’t say! That’s your guess, huh?!

Nur I would hazard a guess that the refugees are predominantly christian!

The crisis in Iraq has given the regime a high degree of legitimacy, however the US administration has a schizophrenic policy towrads the Syrian regime. Not pressing for international monitors and not even a slighly raised voice or voices within the administration about the elections. All this leads me to believe that the administration is pinning its hopes on the Harriri tribunal and Chapter 7, to partly modify regime behaviour ( pseudo speak for change ) Alex what and why do you think the Bush administration has been so muted here?

The muslim brotherhood article by stacher and shehata are referring to the Egyptian mulim brotherhood, not the Syrian brotherhood, i was not aware the organisations are linked , can anyone shed light on this matter?

MOST REGIME ADVOCATES HERE, will definitely get their wish of seven more years of the Baath dictatorship, I only see it as the wasted years, more misery for the populace in their daily struggles.

Enlightened,

Insurance has a price. The Syrian people realize they live in a very bad neighborhood. They know the price of that insurance (the regime’s corruption) and they will tolerate it for as long as the neighborhood is scary… the Syrian regime has delivered on security.

Why has the Bush administration been so muted? … because the Bush administration lost its ability to speak to others from a moral perspective. If they do speak about “Democracy in Syria” … they will sounds either comic, or scary… but surely not appealing to the Syrian people.

Next administration hopefully.

برلماني سابق يدعو لمقاطعة الانتخابات التشريعية في سوري

Nur & “Enlightened”,

Iraq had little over 1 Mio Christian inhabitants to begin wit and NO, they didn’t all emigrate to Syria. Nor are the 1+ Mio Iraqis in Syria all Sunni Arabs.

The majority of them are Shi’ites (hence their congregation around Sitt Zeinab), the rest mainly Sunnis and – to a much lesser extent – Christians. The latter has to do with the fact that Christian Iraqis have it (somewhat) easier to emigrate to “Western” countries – and do so.

In ANY case, Iraqis in Syria do not play a role in Syrian domestic politics just as the Palestinian refugees living in Syria (since ’48) don’t play a role in domestic politics. Even if they tried, they wouldn’t be allowed to do so.

Thus, Nur’s argument that Assad can use the 1 Mio pro-regime Iraqi refugees doesn’t hold. In any case, Syrian domestic politics isn’t some election-based number game. The two main pillars on which the regime rests are that it provides for the citizens and projects an image that it is (at the very least) the best of all possible choices, i.e. if they don’t rule then life would be muchmuch worse. For that they can (& do) point at the situation in post-dictatorship Iraq and it works. But they certainly won’t use Iraqi refugees to prop up their rule.

Nur, you read so many newspapers – it’s quite surprising to see you make such a silly mistake.

–MSK

MSK,
I agree with your last analysis ad I agree with Alex’s notion about the colossal failures of the West’s exports to the region and the people’s desire for security over other choices. I might that the third pillar of the Syrian authoritarian legitimacy is the coalition it maintains with the elites in Syria particularly those that hold monopoly of coercive power, such as the military and the intelligence services and those that hold the economic interests of the country such as the old and new mercantile class.

Diplomacy on the Horizon
By Aluf Benn and S. Rosner
Haaretz, 20/4/2007

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/850661.html

When Riad Seif says: “The image of the U.S. is so bad that if you’re against the regime, you’re an American spy.” He is for sure right about the first part of U.S. image; the second part is very telling how the regime still has a hegemony on public perception even he had lost the air waves to satellites. I think the simple ordinary citizen would like to listen all parties of his society and hear is the struggle of the regime to keep him shut up which undoubtedly going to be a lost one on the long run. The parliamentary election candidates could not dare to have a program because of the level of control. Those candidates are not representative of population they are extension of the regime. The regime turning point began in 2000 when he got 3 years gap to make peace and widen his base by empowering people and gradually give back some of their rights but he failed and continue to fail on all fronts.

Alex with all respect to your statement regarding the regime delivery on stability insurance, which is true, still the opposition is a healthy phenomenon which people hope by time will correct the terrible path which the country is on. I would not expect any change will come out voluntary from “the same old same” and this quandary situation.

I would add that the comments on SC to the previous post from some of the pro regime were so awful and showed how dangerous they are to themselves to keep saying either us or the hill, at least we are here on this form are not in a battle field and we are just observers who will never change the country destiny.

First you remember that Jordan has a lot of Iraqi refugee too, one million is a big number,it is a strong card in Syria and Jordan hands, what will happen if Syria tell those people they must go back to Iraq within a month?, it will have strong effect on a weak iraqi goverment, and have serious effect on syrian economy, the refugee is a UN problem too, and UN must do something about them.
Also if 1% of them became militant that means 10,000 militant,they sure can cause a lot of damage.Nur is not silly, Nur is very smart.

Majed,

Nur was talking about 1 Mio Iraqis in regard to DOMESTIC SYRIAN POLITICS, ya’nii “things INSIDE SYRIA”. Get it? NOT IN IRAQ.

Nur implied that Bashar Al-Assad doesn’t need to listen to the SYRIAN opposition because he has an “extra” 1 Mio supporters in the Iraqi refugees currently in Syria.

Re: “silly” – for anyone like Nur, who has been reading/commenting a plethora of international newspapers on Iraq for years, to claim that all the Iraqi refugees in Syria are Sunnis IS a very silly mistake to make.

Majed, why don’t you actually read what people write before you let your emotions take over? Or … you can just revert to posting your usual rumors.

–MSK

TRUSTQUEST,

So people have to be either “anti regime” or “pro regime” with no middle ground. Like Bush: who is not with us is against us!
In this case I for one would rather be in the “pro regime” catagory. The anti regime catagory seems a bit confusing right now as it stretches from Israel to 14 Feb to the MBs to God knows who.

Ausama,
Absolutely Not. That is exactly what I tried to convey, that the regime should have different approach towards the opposing and citizens of Syrian. They have to know how to make friends and let them start with their citizens. At least they should have made friends with civil society not put them in prison. And the regime is passing one opportunity after another. People and oppositions were begging them to make correction to the economy, rule of government institutions, judicial system, election, parliament, emergency decree, and keep counting, they kept ignoring these calls and even in the last five years they are ignoring their own base, their own party. The rule of their party is shadowy to say the least and the parliamentary election is a joke. The regime is responsible for empowerment of the opposition because they never learned to make friends only they know how to make enemies.