So what does this entail, are we going to see a de facto Arab cold war emerge?

I was really looking forward to the summit, and especially the Saudi Kings attendence, I was hoping that he might give us a rendition of the famed Saudi sword dance, and frighten the Syrians so much that they might actually start to take this brotherly Arab Solidarity seriously.

So Disappointed. Ah well maybe next summit.

Dear all,

A question to the esteemed SC crowd: What are the regulations for inviting “guests” to an Arab League Summit?

Can the host invite anyone they want or do guests have to be approved by the Arab League secretariat or is there any other mechanism whereby the other member states have some sort of say or at least give their opinion on which guests are halal?

–MSK*

The Syrians and Iranian must have astonishing intelligence, military, logistic and political skills and resources to be able to do everything Cheney & Co accuse them.

Almost halve of Lebanese parliament members are remote controlled by Syria / Iran, Syria and Iran manage to finance and train all possible “mafia gangs” in Iraq (and elsewhere) and smuggle there weapons despite the US troops and technology. And now Syria and Iran are blamed for sabotaging the Israel-Palestinian negotiations. Well soon they say that Iran and Syria are building more roadblocks to West Bank, allowing Hebron settlers to move more mobile homes and Iran is actually controlling the settlers.

How are Syria and Iran sabotaging Israel-Palestinian negotiations, when Israel and USA do not talk with Hamas and have sidelined it. Does Cheney mean that also Abbas and PLO are controlled by Syria?

—-

Obama advisor: US Jews hinder peace

More trouble for presidential hopeful: Inquiry by conservative US media outlets reveals that Obama advisor Merrill ‘Tony’ McPeak is a longtime anti-Israel critic who slammed American Jews for acting against US interests

According to the magazine, beyond his affinity for alcohol, which saw him detained for drunk driving a year ago, McPeak also appears to take great pleasure in slamming Israel and pro-Israel Jews.

Strange but so familiar journalism linking two unrelated subjects. Well a different paper could equally write

beyond his affinity for alcohol and drugs, which saw him detained for drunk driving years ago, George Bush also appears to take great pleasure in praising Israel and pro-Israel Jews.

but writing like that would naturally be seen as anti-Semitic by the same writes who wrote original McPeak “analysis”.

Excellent piece in the LA Times regarding Cheney’s spin on Iran. Doesn’t “shorthand” remind you of WMD?

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-cheney26mar26,1,7973825.story

What are the Syrians keeping in their pocket about the Mughniyeh murder that they will divulgate only after the arab summit?

Simo

Don’t spill the beans about Syria’s powerlessness to control Hizbullah and Hamas!

Otherwise, why would Israel and the next U.S. administration bother talking to the Syrians?

MSK

Are you in Beirut at the moment?

What’s the mood like?

And where have you been?! SC has been empty without you!

Dear QN,

Am I in Beirut? Uhhh … I live here.

Been too busy with work and social life but will – soon, insha’allah – answer Josh’s reply to me a few posts back …

The mood in Beirut is split. Last night a service driver, after a long conversation about all sorts of things asked me “Now, what do you think of Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah?” and, after my very diplomatic answer “I still don’t really know if his goal is power, like Aoun who thinks it’s his way or chaos, or the good of the nation, even if that would mean to admit criticism.” went into a five-minute spiel on how he is the only good politician in the country & that it’s all about protecting Lebanon from Israel. Sadly, my dinner was waiting & I had to exit the service … 😉

At this point, the majority of people has become apathetic – the crisis has been going on for over a year and these days most people don’t care on a day-to-day basis. Nothing’s really happening & after the umpteenth postponement of the parliamentary elections … people just don’t pay attention anymore.

It seems to have reached a situation where the various parties’ partisans are still excitable (after Berri’s speech a few days ago, AMAL supporters one-upped their HA colleagues by bringing out AA guns to celebrate) but they, too, do not believe that any solution can be found anytime soon.

Overall, the city appears bereft of its spirit. It’s not like it’s gloomy per se, but there’s little hope or confidence. And it has become more aggressive. Service drivers are a good indication & these days they’re not a happy lot.

One thing that just won’t stop is the rumor-mill. If I had a dime for every time I’d hear sentences like “My American friends have received messages from the embassy that they should leave as the war will happen in April” or “Hizbullah has moved all its fighters out of the South because Israel will attack soon” … I’d be a millionaire by now, probably even in Pounds Sterling.

So … on a day-to-day basis we’re just ignoring the %&^@# political situation as best as we can & look forward to going to the beaches soon.

Drop by anytime you like.

–MSK*

مقاطعو القمة هم الخاسرون
عبد الباري عطوان

26/03/2008

ربما تتميز قمة دمشق العربية، التي ستعقد يومي السبت والاحد المقبلين، بأنها الاكثر وضوحا بين كل سابقاتها، سواء من حيث الهوية او حجم ومستوي المشاركة، او المواقف السياسية التي ستنجم عنها.
الغالبية الساحقة من القمم العربية السابقة، عادية او طارئة، كانت تعقد اما بايعاز امريكي، للتقدم بمبادرة سلام، تتضمن تنازلات مغرية كبيرة لاسرائيل، مثلما كان حال قمتي بيروت والرياض، وإما من قبيل الضرورة واللياقات والروتين.
فالقمم الثلاث الاخيرة التي انعقدت تباعا في تونس والجزائر والخرطوم، جاءت مثل الماء بلا لون او طعم او رائحة، ولم تناقش اي قضايا جدية، وخرجت قراراتها باهتة، وبعضها انعقد لبضع ساعات فقط، وبعض الزعماء المشاركين، مثل الرئيس المصري حسني مبارك، او الليبي معمر القذافي، غادر بعد اختتام الجلسة الافتتاحية.
قمة دمشق نجحت قبل ان تبدأ، بل وقبل ان تتبلور مستويات المشاركات فيها، لسبب بسيط وهو مناصبتها العداء من قبل الولايات المتحدة الامريكية، وتحريض القيادة الامريكية لحلفائها العرب علي مقاطعتها.
ولا نبالغ اذا قلنا ان المملكة العربية السعودية اسدت معروفا كبيرا للحكومة السورية، وقدمت لها صكا بالوطنية لم تقصده عندما قررت المشاركة في هذه القمة بوفد متدن، وكذلك فعل الرئيس المصري حسني مبارك، لان الشارع العربي سينحاز لسورية ضد محور ما يسمي بـ الاعتدال العربي الذي يمثل رأس حربة المشروع الامريكي في المنطقة.

بوصلتنا، التي نعتقد انها بوصلة الاغلبية الساحقة في الوطن العربي، والعالم الاسلامي، واضحة تماما، فمن يحظي بالرضا الامريكي من الزعماء العرب، هو نقيض للمشروع التحرري العربي، وشريك مباشر في كل حروب امريكا الكارثية في العراق وافغانستان وفلسطين، وما يترتب عليها من كوارث بشرية واخلاقية.
وعندما يقاطع حلفاء امريكا قمة عربية ويستنكف زعماؤهم عن المشاركة فيها ومهما كانت اسبابهم، فهذا يعطي انطباعا فوريا للمواطنين العرب المحبطين والمجوعين والمهانين بأن هذه القمة جيدة او مختلفة، وغير مهيمن عليها امريكيا.
فاذا كانت الزعامات العربية التي قاطعت هذه القمة تعتقد انها تعزل سورية بهذه المقاطعة، وتفشّل اعمال القمة، فإنها مخطئة، لانها في واقع الحال تعزل نفسها عن العمل العربي المشترك اولا، وعن الجماهير العربية ثانيا.
موقف هذه الدول، والحكومتين السعودية والمصرية علي وجه الخصوص، سيكون مختلفا لو انها قررت في اجتماع وزراء الخارجية العرب الذي انعقد مؤخرا في القاهرة، سحب مبادرة السلام العربية التي اعادت اطلاقها قمة الرياض، ووجهت نقدا لواشنطن التي لم تلتزم بتفاهمات مؤتمر انابوليس للسلام من حيث فرض عقوبات علي الطرف الاسرائيلي بسبب انتهاكاته الفاضحة لها باستئنافه الاستيطان في الضفة الغربية، والاقدام علي حصار نازي تجويعي لمليون ونصف مليون انسان عربي في قطاع غزة، ولكن هذه الحكومات لم تفعل ذلك للأسف، وقررت معاقبة سورية، وليس اسرائيل والولايات المتحدة، بالعمل علي افشال القمة العربية. وليت هذه القمة تصلح هذا الخلل بالبحث في سحب هذه المبادرة رسميا بعد ازدراء اسرائيل وامريكا لها ولهم.

السؤال الذي يطرح نفسه بقوة حاليا في اوساط الرأي العام العربي، هو عما انجزته دول الاعتدال العربي بارتمائها في احضان المشروع الامريكي بالكامل، غير المشاركة في حرب ادت الي مقتل مليون عراقي وتشريد خمسة ملايين آخرين، واحداث خلل استراتيجي خطير في موازين القوي بتسليم هذا البلد لإيران وحلفائها من الطائفيين الحاقدين علي كل ما هو عربي؟
ماذا جنت هذه الدول المعتدلة مقابل كل هذه الخدمات الجليلة للولايات المتحدة، والتي كان آخرها زيادة السعودية لإنتاجها النفطي تلبية لطلب ديك تشيني نائب الرئيس الامريكي، لتخفيض اسعار النفط وانقاذ الاقتصاد الامريكي من حالة الكساد التي دخلها مؤخرا نتيجة ارتفاع تكاليف الحرب في العراق (600 مليار دولار حتي الآن) وارتفاع اسعار البترول (110 دولارات للبرميل) بسبب حال عدم الاستقرار وتصاعد خطر الارهاب عالميا؟ هل حصلت علي تسوية عادلة للقضية الفلسطينية او تطبيق لخارطة الطريق او حتي تفكيك مستوطنة واحدة غير شرعية في الضفة الغربية؟
لنسأل عما جنته حكومة الرئيس حسني مبارك بالذات من هذه التبعية المهينة والمذلة للولايات المتحدة من خلال مساندتها لكل حروبها الفاشلة في المنطقة، والتحول الي وسيط تتفاوض نيابة عنها واسرائيل لتهدئة الاوضاع في قطاع غزة، ووقف صواريخ المقاومة، مختصرة دور مصر الدولة العظمي في شريط حدودي لا يزيد طوله عن اربعة عشر كيلومترا بين قطاع غزة ومصر!
ماذا استفادت مصر من هذه التبعية ومن اتفاقات الهوان في كامب ديفيد غير طوابير الخبز والجوع والفاقة لنحو ثمانين مليون مواطن من اشرف العرب واكثرهم طيبة ورجولة وكرما وتضحية؟

قبل ثلاثين عاما من الانخراط في المشروع الامريكي وتوقيع اتفاقات السلام، كانت الصحافة المصرية تتندر علي طوابير الدجاج واللحوم والاسماك، ولم يخطر ببالها انه سيأتي يوم يموت فيه مواطنون وهم يقفون في طوابير خبز معجون بالخيطان والمسامير وبالكاد يصلح للاستهلاك البشري.
الدول توزع البطاقات التموينية علي مواطنيها عندما تكون في حال حرب، الا في مصر وبعض البلدان العربية الحليفة لواشنطن، او التي احتلتها القوات الامريكية ووعدت بتحويلها الي جنات عدن مثل العراق. فآخر حرب خاضتها مصر كانت قبل 35 عاما، ومع ذلك البطاقة موجودة والاوضاع تزداد سوءا.
القمة العربية المقبلة في دمشق ستكرس حالة استقطاب هي الأقوي وغير مسبوقة في المنطقة، وستحدث فرزا واضح المعالم من حيث تقسيم الحكومات، وليس الشارع العربي، الي معسكرين:
الاول: يتكون من الأنظمة والحكومات المساندة بالكامل للولايات المتحدة وحروبها الحالية، وربما حربها المقبلة ضد سورية وايران وحلفائهما في لبنان (حزب الله) وفلسطين (حماس والجهاد وكتائب الاقصي وألوية الناصر صلاح الدين). وتقف في المكان الابرز في قيادة هذا المعسكر المملكة العربية السعودية ومصر والاردن.
الثاني: يضم سورية التي تقف في الخندق المقابل للخندق الامريكي وحروبه، وكنا نتمني ان نسمي دولا اخري غيرها، ولكن معظم الزعامات السابقة التي كانت تحسب علي المعسكر القومي مثل ليبيا والجزائر واليمن تضع رجلا في المعسكر الامريكي وربع رجل في معسكر الممانعة العربي، وتسعي لنيل الرضا الامريكي ولو الي حين.
قد يقول البعض انها نهاية مؤسسة القمة العربية في شكلها الحالي، نقول فلتكن، لانها كانت مؤسسة فاشلة متعفنة متأكسدة تشكل عبئا علي العمل العربي المشترك، وتقدم صورة مزورة له. ولا أسف عليها اذا انهارت. ولعل هذا الانهيار يكون مقدمة لعملية اصلاح جذري شاملة لها وللجامعة العربية تعيد للعمل العربي المشترك فاعليته وتأثيره.
بقي ان نقول ان هذا التأييد الذي تحظي به سورية في الشارع العربي بسبب موقفها ضد امريكا واسرائيل، نأمل ان يشجعها علي تحسين ملفها علي صعيد حقوق الانسان، والافراج عن معتقلي الرأي في السجون السورية.

——————————————————————————–
كاظم العراقي – مقاطعو القمة “أم حاضروها” هم الخاسرون..!!
يومي السبت والاحد المقبلين، ستعقد “نقمة” دمشق العربية، وكثير من المسلمين لا يدركون حقيقة هذا الأمر ، وكيف سوقه الغرب الكافر لنا، فقد احتل بلادنا عسكرياً ثم خرج منها بعد أن خلف وراءه حكاماً عملاء يديرون مصالحه، ويحافظون على تقسيم العالم الإسلامي كما قسمه الغرب، فقد قسموا بلاد الشام إلى سوريا ولبنان وفلسطين وأوجدوا الأردن بعد أن لم يكن موجوداً، كما قسموا شبه الجريرة العربية إلى كيانات وشراذم صغيرة وكبيرة، وكذلك فعلوا بأرض الكنانة مصر، فقد قسموها إلى مصر والسودان، وفعلوا ذلك في كل العالم الإسلامي. وإذا عدنا إلى السبب الحقيقي وراء تقسيم العالم الإسلامي من قبل الاستعمار، لوجدنا أن السبب الرئيس هو عدم وجود دولة واحدة قوية تجمع الأمة الإسلامية وتحكم بما أنزل الله، وتحمل الإسلام للعالم بالدعوة والجهاد، وتحافظ على ثروات ومقدرات البلاد، وتدافع عن مقدسات المسلمين ولا ترضى بمواقف الذل والهوان، ما جعلها الدولة الأولى في العالم حيث كانت مرهوبة الجانب لا تجرؤ أية دولة أن تتطاول عليها أو على مقدساتها. إن وجود هذه الدولة كان يهدد مصالح الدول الاستعمارية لسنوات طويلة وخصوصاً بريطانيا، مما جعلها تقدم على التخطيط لهدم دولة الخلافة التي كانت تجمع الأمة الإسلامية تحت قيادة واحدة وإمام واحد يحكمهم بالإسلام. فبدأت بنشر سموم الوطنية والقومية لإيجاد التفرقة والعصبية بين صفوف المسلمين. وحمَل هذه السموم المثقفون المضبوعون بالثقافة الغربية وشكلوا رأس حربة ساعدت في هدم دولة الخلافة عام 1924 م بقيادة عدو الله أتاتورك، وبعد ذلك قامت باحتلال العالم الإسلامي عسكرياً ومزقته

MSK,

Thanks for the update. I’ll be in Beirut in a few months, and we should get together.

You’re right about the service drivers. They are, for my money, the best political commentary in the land. You never know what you’re going to get. Nasrallah lover, Nasrallah hater, Hariri lover, Hariri hater, etc.

Dear QN,

As long as they are entertaining it’s fine. But once they start telling you “how it really is” I just tune out. History and politics are the fields where everyone thinks they’re an expert & called upon to pontificate. I don’t start telling bankers how to leverage funds (whatever that means) or engineers how to construct a power plant …

The sheer brashness of cabbies always amazes me – on the basis of a few news reports (of questionable quality) they concoct a whole elaborate politics. Actually, what’s even more amazing (disturbing?) is that people believe them …

Oh well.

–MSK*

PS: Looking forward to meet up.

MSK

Don’t get me wrong: it’s pure entertainment. But then, are the cabbies any different from anyone else in Lebanon? Every Sunday afternon at my grandparents’ place in the mountains means two hours of “geopolitics” after lunch with my relatives. (It’s better than coffee, apparently, at fighting indigestion).

In other news, and for those who missed it, Sami Moubayed had an excellent piece in Asia Times about the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iran, and next year’s presidential elections. As Moubayed shows, things do not look good for the reformists.

Here’s an excerpt:

Battle of the conservatives

With elections taking place in Iran on Friday, the popular joke among Iranians says: Mahmud Ahmadinejad and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (current and former conservative presidents) are in an airplane over Tehran. Ahmadinejad says, “I am going to throw down $100, and let 10 Iranian citizens get them and pray for me.” Rafsanjani, who is richer by far, replies, “I am going to throw out $1,000, and let 100 citizens pray for me.” Provoked by the bravado of both men, the pilot mumbles, “I am going to throw both of you out, and let 65 million Iranians pray for me.”

It is no wonder that Iranians are not enthusiastic about voting for the 28th parliamentary elections. Instead of heading to the ballots, they are shopping for the Iranian New Year (the March 20 holiday of Nowruz). The reasons vary, including lack of inspiring candidates, along with lessons learned – the hard way – being that the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) cannot deliver real change in Iranian society.

(Read the rest on Sami’s website, http://www.mideastviews.com/ )

QN, MSK,

Given that undoubtedly the Lebanese people, as others in this region, attribute most of the region’s instability to Israel, and assuming that they view the Arab-Israeli conflict as the most crucial and urgent issue to be dealt with (either peacefully, or otherwise), why aren’t the Lebanese trying to unite the Arab world (including Syria, KSA, Egypt, etc.) at least in order to pose a single front to the US/Israel? Won’t such a push or dialogue bring Lebanon and Syria closer to understandings and, in particular, ease Syria’s fears that Lebanon is fast becoming anti-Syria?

Dear QN,

Yeah, it’s a national trait but I don’t have to listen to your relatives … 😉

As for Sami’s piece – the elections are already over & his was only one in a plethora of articles on how apathetic the Iranian voters are. Btw, all three groups – conservatives, not-so-conservatives, and reformers – claimed some sort of victory.

Dear Shai,

I don’t understand your question. What could/should the Lebanese do, in practical terms? Last time I checked, they’re the least powerful ones in the region so how do you think they could get anyone to do anything?

–MSK*

Shai,

In order for Lebanon to unite the Arab world, the Lebanese would have to be united themselves! Who would you have represent Lebanon in this effort to unite the Arab world? Fouad Siniora? Hasan Nasrallah? Samir Geagea? Michel Aoun? It’s not so straightforward.

The Arabs have presented some semblance of a “united front” in the past, notably with the Arab peace initiative, but nothing really came of it. Lebanon was part of that initiative, both in 2000 and 2004 (when the summit was held in Beirut and the initiative was renewed).

I don’t think that a substantial proportion of the Lebanese are really too interested in cooperating with Syria because they don’t feel that Syria has Lebanon’s interests at heart. That proportion of the population deeply distrusts Syria and regards it as sharing in the responsibility for the perpetuation of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Of course, Israel is regarded as public enemy #1, but Syria contributes to the instability by promoting Hizbullah and allying with Iran… how do you expect Lebanon to change these facts?

Syria’s fears are justified… Perhaps 40% of Lebanon is deeply anti-Syrian at the moment, with another 20% that is guarded and occasionally suspicious (i.e. the Aounists). That will take time to change, and the current standoff is not helping matters.

MSK,

So they are. Shows how up-to-speed I am. Thanks.

The problem in the Mideast that personalities not common interest or sense decide policy , and that is a problem.

In the 6 March issue of the London Review of Books, Patrick Cockburn penned an article entitled, “Who is Whose Enemy?”, in which he says this (irony of ironies):

“In many ways the US position in Iraq is like Syria’s status in Lebanon between 1976 and 2005, when it partly occupied the country. The Syrian army prevented the civil war from escalating, but also stopped anything being resolved between the different communities.”

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v30/n05/cock01_.html

Norman says:
The problem in the Mideast that personalities not common interest or sense decide policy , and that is a problem.

Would this; if true, also apply to the current rulers of Syria, Norman, or would you make an exception here?

Let’s see…I recognize Erdoğan(Turkey), Zebari(Iraq), Gheddafi(Libya), Bouteflika(Algeria) front and center….

This is really funny. If you google ‘arab summit damascus’, you get the following headlines:
Egypt snubs, Lebanon not going, Egypt snubs, Lebanon not going, Egypt snubs, Lebanon not going, Egypt snubs, Lebanon not going…but not a word on about the major participants. I see they have adopted the lapel pin, like all those US congressmen (as if one didn’t know they were American!)

Nur,

Are you sure that’s a photo from this year? I see Lahoud also front and center, and unless he’s been invited as some kind of guest of honor, there’s no reason why he should be there.

Or maybe he’s carrying Bashar’s briefcase or something

From purely a spectators point of view the pre-summit goings on attest to a certain spirit that attests to the “joi de vivre” of the Arab/muslim populations in the Middle East. Reminiscent of some of the goings on in recent years in Italy.

Also pertinent are the facts that notwithstanding the over 2000 years onslaughts of so-called western civilizing conquests the core values of the Middle Easterner is still growing in its own home grown way.

In any human get together one gets out of it as much as one puts into it. Those who participate at least show a deference to their fellow men. Those who dont will miss out on that deference.

Lets hope that those who attend decide on actions that are positive and fullfilling to the extent that those who did not attend wish that they should have.

This article in atimes.com clearly shows that the US is moving behind the scenes to work with Iran on sharing control of the region. The so called moderates are going to come out of this with egg on their faces and pain in their behinds. Read it slowly and carefully. I predicted this a long time ago as Iran and Turkey have emerged as the only two serious countries in the ME with a clear strategy and plan of action for their future. By the way, does anyone what is being served for dinner at the illustrious Arab Summit; that would be an important piece of news.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JC27Ak04.html

QN,

Thanks for the explanation. Lebanon’s situation is a bit clearer to me now. But I guess I wondered if even those 40% of the Lebanese that support Syria, or the 20% that aren’t sure, considered using this conference as a podium for using another significant issue (PE#1) to unite and bring Syria closer to Lebanon (or to the 40% that are against Bashar). After all, Syria is not interested in a Lebanon that is anti-Syria, but clearly Lebanon is also not interested in a Syria that is anti-Lebanon. But I do understand there are many complexities involved.

What an astute “Observer”… and Ghat Albird… really…!!
Perhaps it also shows that, in this day and age, all is obvious and we should, perhaps, stop fooling around…!??

Naji.

The only way to stop fooling around is to Stop. And what better time is there than now and by those who believe its time to stop fooling around.

The only instance that comes to mind and is most relevant is trace the history of Saddam Hussein and who he played with and who played him in the end.

Really…!!

Really…!!

Seeking the Truth

I mean , everybody.

The picture from 2006

While concentrating on Arab summit at the time of big events like current week operation against the Saddr in Iraq, in Bagdad and in Basra, is like blurring or missing the big picture. Which country support Saddr movement, and where Iran stands from him and from Al Malki who is destroying him right now?. Who is the true nationalist and who is the traitor? Now, this is a big event, Shia against Shia, isn’t strange? Why one side of the same sect siding with USA and the other taking opposite position? Is this can happen in any Arab Country with different sects as hate against sects have higher order than hate against foreigners or outsiders? Why there is no Arab Country especially the hardliners like Syrians, ever mention these events in their news, it looks like it is something of no concern to them?. What is their position, against or with the Iraqi government, against or with the coalition forces, all these important question goes by like nothing happening while the area is rearrange and big power like the Saddr Militia is disappearing.
It seems after all that the summit is more important than even war?
To me the summit is like those football games which grab population attention to divert their mind from a bad political scheme going underway.

w w w . h a a r e t z . c o m

ANALYSIS: Isolating Syria serves to highlight its importance
By Zvi Bar’el, Haaretz Correspondent
Last update – 07:46 28/03/2008

“In the name of merciful and compassionate Allah, I hope you solve just one Arab problem,” begged a surfer on television network Al-Arabiyah’s Internet site. His supplication, which will apparently go unanswered, was directed at the heads of state convening in Damascus on Friday for an Arab League summit, or at least those heads of states bothering to attend after Egypt and Saudi Arabia neutered it.

The pair seek to punish Syria for continually thwarting any political solution in Lebanon by not allowing the appointment of General Michel Suleiman as president and not forcing Hezbollah to accept a reasonable division of cabinet posts. Syria rejected, albeit politely, the Arab League’s compromise proposal, positioning itself as the victor over the united Arab front.

But the Saudi-Egyptian penalty could become an own goal. It does not promote a resolution to the crisis in Lebanon and it highlights the chasm between the camps. This is no longer the well-known split between “moderates” and “extremists,” but between the “Arab circle” and the “Iranian circle” and has emphasized the power of organizations like Hezbollah, and to some extent Hamas, to set the Arab agenda.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are frustrated that Iran succeeds in influencing Arab policy no less and maybe – regarding Lebanon – more than the Arab countries themselves. The attendance of the Iranian foreign minister – not a member state and not an Arab state – emphasizes Tehran’s role in this rift.

It is possible that Egypt and Saudi Arabia’s partial embargo of the summit will turn Syria’s isolation into a source of power. The Arab states know that the solution to the two most severe crises in the Middle East pass through Syria, yet they don’t have the means to force its hand. Syrian agreement to the suggested solution would gnaw away at Hezbollah’s political maneuvering power, which could lead to Syria losing control in Lebanon.

This summit will be considered the Arab League’s largest failure, but could clarify how Syria, in spite of its isolation, is becoming the most significant state in the region’s diplomatic processes. The question now will be what option Egypt and Saudi Arabia will have to resolve the Lebanon crisis and how they can extract Hamas from the Iranian-Syrian circle to resolve the Palestinian crisis.