Subsidies and Iraqis: Syria Shifts Gears
Tuesday, September 4th, 2007
Khaled Oweis, Reuters' correspondent in Damascus, has an excellent article on the new visa requirements Syria has imposed on Iraqis seeking refuge in Syria.
DAMASCUS (Reuters) – Syria has imposed strict visa requirements on Iraqi nationals, officials said on Monday, cutting the only accessible escape route for thousands of refugees fleeing the upheaval in Iraq.
A government decree that takes effect on September 10 bars Iraqi passport holders from entering Syria except for businessmen and academics, a small minority of the 3,000-5,000 refugees who currently cross the border every day.
Jordan, the other main goal of Iraqi refugees, imposed its own visa requirements some two years ago.
"Syria has already received more than 1.5 million refugees and there could be no end in sight to what the Americans unleashed there. We simply can't cope any more," a Syrian official told Reuters.
The official gave no indication that Syria could force refugees already in the country to leave.
At Rawda cafe in the Syrian capital, a meeting point for refugees, Iraqis expressed frustration at the new regulations.
"All the roads in front of us are now blocked. Arab governments are making the lives of Iraqis even more miserable," said Fadel Ahmad, who came from Baghdad.
"Escaping to Syria has kept me and my family alive. What are people facing death and eviction from there homes in Iraq supposed to do now?" asked Wafa Mahdi, a former school teacher….
It is high time Syria got serious about restricting the flow of Iraqi refugees. It is painful to say this because Syria has been more than brotherly in allowing up to 8% of their population to become Iraqi. Most importantly, the plight of the Iraqis demands more international action and not less. All the same, so long as Syria acts as a safety valve for Iraqi refugees, the world will continue to turn its collective back on them. Clearly, Syria cannot host all the Iraqis compelled to seek a safe haven. Syria indicated in January that it was preparing to impose visa restrictions on Iraqis, but the world shrugged. A bit more money dribbled in. The US upped its quota from a few hundred to 7 thousand Iraqis a year, but these half measures indicated that no one was prepared to open their doors for Iraqis.
When Iraqi refugees first started showing up in Syria in large numbers, I wrote that if anything puts an end to pan-Arabism in Syria, it will be the flow of Iraqis. They would force Syria to revoke its open visa policy for fellow Arabs. The US demanded that Syria impose a visa requirement and background checks on all Arabs entering the country in 2005. Syria refused.
I can only say, I am surprised at how long it has taken. My father-in-law said to me this summer, when I asked if he thought Syria would stop the flow of Iraqis into Syria, "It will be very difficult for the government to stop them. It is a matter of principle. Many people take the matter of Arabism seriously." I guess Arabism helps explain why the borders have been open for so long, but the growing burden of supporting a large refugee population has finally forced the Syrian government to contravene its pan-Arab principles. Perhaps it didn't happen as the US imagined, but it can take credit for destroying Arabism through the invasion of Iraq.
Fuel Subsidies
Although President Bashar al-Assad stated in his reelection speech in July that he had no intention of cutting government subsidies, this turns out not to be true. Deputy P.M. Dardari has explained that mazout (gas oil) prices will go from 8 to 12 lira per liter. Electricity rates will also go up to reflect this. The new rate hikes have been delayed for further discussion, demonstrating that political opposition to the reduction of fuel subsidies remains strong, but the economic imperatives are compelling. Evidently Mazout in Turkey sells for something like 70 lira a liter. Syria has a long way to lift prices in five years of graduated pain for the consumer before smuggling can be stopped.
Here is a Reuters article by our man Oweis:
Syria will phase out massive fuel subsidies over five years to combat smuggling and prevent the budget deficit from sinking further into the red, a senior official said on Tuesday.
"The government will take the decision in the next few weeks and the subsidies will start to be removed before year's end," Abdallah al-Dardari, deputy prime minister for economic affairs, told Reuters in an interview.
"The government doesn't want to make profit on fuels, but the objective is to cover our costs in five years," he said.
The subsidies which cost 15% of gross domestic product have been a hallmark of Syria's Baathist government for decades. The move to abandon them could signal a shift in economic policy which has been criticized as too slow to adopt market mechanisms.
The lifting of fuel subsidies will help keep the budget deficit, which has risen in the last few years, stable at five% of gross domestic product in 2008 and in 2009, Dardari said.
Syria produces 380,000-400,000 barrels per day of crude oil but lack of refining capacity means it imports billions of dollars a year worth of fuel, especially gas oil used in transport and heating, which is sold at subsidized prices at the pump.
Dardari said the government has embarked on a public relations offensive to explain that the end of subsidies was in the national interest, especially as massive volumes of fuel were being smuggled to Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq.
A liter of gas oil costs the equivalent of 14 U.S. cents compared with $1.54 in Turkey for a roughly similar product, Dardari said. Petrol is sold by the Syrian government at 60 cents a liter after a sudden 20 percent rise in January 2006, which caused a public outcry in the tightly controlled country.
The smuggling is estimated to cost the government $800 million a year, according to economists. Dardari said smuggling to Lebanon alone cost Syria $300 million. "Tightening border security will not solve the problem. We have to adopt a fundamental solution. Economic growth will become unsustainable if we continue with this subsidies regime," Dardari said.
The Syria Report, written by Jihad Yaziji, has this to add:
Government to start lifting of subsidies in 2008
The debate on the gradual lifting of subsidies on oil by-products is gaining pace in the Syrian media following the Government's announcement that subsidies will be reduced starting 2008. Read
Electricity prices go up as Government tries to reduce subsidies cost and power shortages. The Ministry of Electricity has adopted a new pricing policy for the consumption of electricity that entered into effect at the beginning of this month. Read
Car market grew 13 percent in 2006. The number of vehicles that were imported in Syria in 2006 reached 145 932 according to a report published by the official Syrian Arab News Agency. Read
mideastwire.com, established by Nicholas Noe to translate Arabic press, has this to add.
On August 31, the state-controlled daily Al Thawrah reported: “Al-Thawrah learned from an informed government source that the proposals on subsidy redistribution, which are being discussed in media and popular circles, will not be implemented in the next days or weeks. The discussions and interactive dialogues over the proposals will continue until an adequate formula and an ideal solution pleasing all citizens, achieving balance, advancing the development process, and preserving the national resources to serve the hopes, aspirations, and interests of our people have been reached.
“The source said that the government is still committed to dialogue with citizens to learn their views on the best ways to proceed with this national step to serve the economic and social development and implement the tenth 5-year plan. The source said the dialogue will continue directly, through the media, and by means of questionnaires that will soon be distributed among various groups of citizens to collect the broadest possible views on this important subject.” – Al Thawrah, Syria
Miscellaneous:
Tony Karon at "Rootless Cosmopolitan," writes August 31: Mearsheimer, Walt and the Erudite Hysteria of David Remnick. The publication of Mearshimer and Walt's book will cause a stir, just as the publication of their article did last year. The attacks have only begun.
A week ago, he wrote, "Asking the Wrong Questions on Iran" (Monday, August 20th, 2007) which raised a number of important questions.
Also see: Why you should discount all the bomb Iran talk,
Comments (25)
Alex said:
The US bluster is meant to scare Europeans more than Iranians. Its object is to win stiffer sanctions from Europe. It is impossible for me to believe that American policy makers are stupid enough to go after Iran militarily. I remain convinced that Washington has the ability to learn from past mistakes and correct its worst errors. This takes time in the face of a stubborn executive, but it happens. The military, as loyal to the executive as it is, would put its collective foot down sooner than go to war against Iran.
I don’t think the Europeans are very scared. They won’t take part, but they are unable to stop the US. So they will have to stand aside. That goes for Brown, Merkel and Sarkozy.
It seems to me you are looking at the question in the wrong way. It is a contest between the madmen on the one side, Cheyney and the Neo-Cons, who are fervently working to get a war going. They really want it, it is very clear in the language, even Bush’s. And common sense on the other, represented by the military, who understand what is implied.
Who can say which will win? It looks to me like the situation see-saws from one moment to another.
But it is nothing to do with the Europeans. I’m sure they will vote for more sanctions, even without this extra propaganda offensive.
But more sanctions will not change the Iranian position. It did not change Saddam’s, but Saddam was more autocratic. Ahmedinejad will depart one day, there is plenty of dissatisfaction, but as a result of sanctions? To go by the Iraqi comparison, whatever the Iraqis did could never satisfy the US and remove the sanctions. Iran must also see it this way.
September 4th, 2007, 7:29 pm
Sasa said:
Hi Josh,
I completely accept your point that Syria had to do something about the flood of Iraqis, if only to help stem the refugee-driven inflation (or at least the perception of it).
It is interesting you say that closing the doors will make the world sit up and take notice. For too long, America has been beating Syria with one hand, and filling it with refugees of its making with the other.
Blocking refugees to make the international community wake up to its responsibilities. This smells incredibly similar to the Lebanese line of refusing to grant Palestinian refugees any rights at all, to force Israel to recognise that they MUST go home.
Sixty years on Lebanon is no closer to sending the refugees home, mainly because Israel doesn’t care.
I would posit that America cares even less for its Iraqi refugees.
Sasa, the Syria News Wire.
September 4th, 2007, 10:00 pm
why-discuss said:
I think there is very little media coverage of the iraqi refugees situation, probably because they have been until now quietly absorbed by neighboring countries, principally by Syria. To shake up the media, there must be some spectacular decision or event, and until now it has been business as usual. If that would have happened in the US, there would have been a flurry of dramatized report to alert the public opinion. Unfortunatly arab media (Mostly financed by KSA) are apathetic and lack initiatives, possibly because it has to do with Syria.
I am certain that this Syria’s move would hardly be covered by the western media. Not dramatic or tear jerking enough!
September 4th, 2007, 11:54 pm
Enlightened said:
Regarding the Iraqi refugee situation, I think that Syria’s government has done a pretty poor job in highlighting to the world the critical nature of their plight. It has gone quietly along absorbing and assisting the refugees, until now it has realised that it can no longer feasibly cope with its own limited resources.
Does any one on the site know if any of the world bodies or relief agencies are assisting the Syrian government with this issue, up till now i am left with the impression that the Syrian government is absorbing all the costs associated with the refugees.
September 5th, 2007, 12:40 am
norman said:
I worry about restricting the entrance of the Iraqis to Syria as with a long border that Syria has with Iraq ,Iraqis will continue to come but illegally and will give a false impression about the number of Iraqis in Syria , I think Syria should sue the US for damages in an American court .
Actually , I do not think that Syria should limit any Arab from entering Syria as destroying Arab ism and Syria’s stand is more dangerous , Syria is the only Arab state left.
The subsidies should be lifted immediately not in five years and not only on oil products but also on food and every thing else , that will decrease the smuggling and decrease the local consumption by the Iraqis in Syria , to avoid a revolution in Syria , the government should estimate the consumption of the Syrian family and increase the salaries of government employees actually that might decrease bribery and low level corruption , the government should keep the price of electricity low as that can not be smugled and should give food stamps to real poor Syrians that can be used for anything they buy while the people that can go abroad to vacation can pay market prices .
September 5th, 2007, 1:27 am
norman said:
Joshua,
Thanks for starting a debate about two major problems that Syria faces ,
By the way where are our economists , Ehsani2 and Syrian , i like to see what they have about the topic.
September 5th, 2007, 2:15 am
3antar said:
“To shake up the media, there must be some spectacular decision or event, and until now it has been business as usual. If that would have happened in the US, there would have been a flurry of dramatized report to alert the public opinion. Unfortunatly arab media (Mostly financed by KSA) are apathetic and lack initiatives, possibly because it has to do with Syria.”
I’m just wondering why there doesn’t seem to be any media shake up in the Syrian tv outlet? Granted that most media outlets in ME are manipulated by KSA and Gulf states, but observing Syrian Sat channel (think Addunia is another one, right) one hardly finds enough coverage. Such human catastrophe should be dramatized and brought to everyone’s attention, to an equal level and along side the daily explosions reported in Iraq. I’m sure KSA has no control over Syrian broadcasting. The Syrian media doesn’t do itself any favours.
September 5th, 2007, 8:52 am
George Ajjan said:
As for the difference between European and American approaches to Iran, consider that the US has had a diplomatic freeze for almost 3 decades, while several European carriers fly commercial flights almost daily to Tehran. In fact, the British sailors who were captured flew directly home on a BMED flight.
Meanwhile, the likes of Joe Lieberman are pushing to ban Air France, Alitalia, and British Airways (BMED parent) from landing on US soil since they fly to…Damascus.
The interesting twist is that BMED was just acquired by BMI and is no longer a BA franchise. BMI flies from Manchester to several US cities. Seems they’re not too concerned about Lieberman’s objectives.
September 5th, 2007, 9:08 am
Observer said:
it is a sad day that the open policy that Syria adopted has to be changed. I for one will ask my representatives in the US congress to either foot the bill for the refugees or to open immigration to them or both. When GWB sites Vietnam as an example of what would happen if the US leaves, he seems to forget that it is already happening with 600 000 extra deaths according to the Lancet, 4 milion of internal and external refugees, a corruption that puts Iraq as the worst country, and an infant mortality rate that is appaling. This administration does not give a damn about Iraqis, it is afraid of losing power around the world and as such is ever more dangerous.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/II06Ak05.html
September 5th, 2007, 3:33 pm
Nur al-Cubicle said:
Thank you for the reality check, Joshua, on bombing Iran. It was certainly hot air. When was the last time a scandal-ridden modern Western government was able to launch a second war?
The US bears the responsibility for the fate of the refugees, instead it gives $10 billion to the Saudis and billions more for illegal Israeli settlements, including mountaintop swimming pools, on the West Bank. It is not the world that turns its back on the Iraqis, it is the USA.
Meanwhile, the maneuvers of Bush to switch sides in Iraq is laughable.
BTW, why is there is tremendous panic in Lebanon with every diplomat in Europe shuttling to Beirut and this unending obsession with the Hariri trial?
September 5th, 2007, 5:24 pm
why-discuss said:
“It is not the world that turns its back on the Iraqis, it is the USA.
…and the Arab world who stays shamlessly silent on the death toll of iraqi civilians and on the refugee crisis. Where are the demonstration in support of the iraqi civilians? where is the money to help the refugees? Where is the arab league? No, KSA, Egypt, Jordan, Europe and the USA are busy establishing by force “without external influence:” an israeli-US-friendly governement in Lebanon. It is pathetic!
September 5th, 2007, 6:34 pm
norman said:
Syria is the only Arab country , the rest are worthless.
September 5th, 2007, 6:51 pm
Atassi said:
Norman,
Syria is the Arab country!!! that is news to me… What makes a county an Arab country? We need a description more then the typical slogan of ” Wahda, Houria and Eshtirakia”…
why-discuss
What kind of a governement you would like to see in lebanon? Hizb-Iran ? Or Hizb- Tanoos…!!
September 5th, 2007, 7:41 pm
ausamaa said:
Guys, with all due respect, Lebanon falls within the geopolitical sphere of Syria. Same like Palestine, same like Jordan. Like it our not.
This is the crux of the Israeli-Syrian conflict. Like it or not. If you like it, fine, things will be easier. If you do not, tough luck, but this is the battle bwteween Syria and Israel, and Syria -at worsst- has the support of at least 50% of he Arab concerned street.
The rest, Golan, water, security arrangments, de-militrized zones, etc…. are window dressing. Choose your side, if you can!!
Ciao…
September 5th, 2007, 10:06 pm
ausamaa said:
BTW, Syria is supposed to be the “bad guy”, why do all of sudden we expect Syria and request it to extend all neede help to the 1.5 million Iraqin refgees it harbores? WE are supposed to be evil, opportunistic, pragamatitsits and what have you. Why are we now “expected to help”?
Saudi Arabia has a longer boaredr and more historic ties -they say- with Iraq, compared to Syria. And much more money, why are they silent -except in their green media excercise-? Are Irqies not Arab brothers to the Custodian of the whatever the call it…?
Is it because Syria is fullfiling its “Arab” duty and the rest are mute as usual? And, stiill, some have the nerve to face-up to Syria on national issues?
1.5 million Iraqi refugees at $20 dollars subsistance cost per day, that is = 1,500,000 X $20 x 365 days year= lots of money indeed. Thanks Germany for the sweet gesture, but Where is everyone else? This is not pocket money by any standard, is it? How many barrels of oil is that? At 75$ ppd? Why dont’t they just help, just keep their mouth shut?
P.S., suffuice it to sayt, it is our duty as Syrian Arabs to help our brothers as usual. Not use them. The answer is easy: Syria is Arabist Arab country by nature; they are the moneytarists Arabsic country by choice. Fair weather companions as usual.
September 5th, 2007, 10:26 pm
Alex said:
Ausamaa,
The Saudis can’t help Shiite, Christian and Yazidi Iraqi refugees… it is 7aram to help them live … they are kuffar.
But the Saudis helped Lebanon, despite its Christians and Druze population… why? .. because they are protecting their pride and their regional status … they want to win and keep Lebanon under their influence, that’s all.
By the way, I don’t need to remind everyone again, that Syria absorbed hundreds of thousands of non Arabs as well … Kurds escaping from Turkey and Iraq (starting in the 50’s), and Armenians, in 1915
So it is not only about being a true Arab nation. Syria has been the buffer that saved millions of neighbors during civil wars, genocides, and conflicts… Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine, Turkey …
September 5th, 2007, 11:01 pm
norman said:
Attasi,
Ausamaa and Alex answered you , I just want to add ,Stop hating Syria because you do not like it’s government , Be proud of Syria .
September 6th, 2007, 12:32 am
majedkhaldoun said:
As a republican,live in USA, I decided to vote for Ron Paul, would anyone join me in supporting Mr. Paul
Syria is doing good in helping Iraqee, yes we should be proud.Syria is a good arabic country.
KSA is helping Lebanon because they have a lot of investments in Lebanon, I doubt they are helping Lebanon to control lebanon, I do not think that KSA is working against Syria.
September 6th, 2007, 3:36 am
Friend in America said:
New Visa Requirements – Only Half the Problem
It is understandable for Syria to close down its borders to refuges. The international community (read Europe, U.N. and oil rich midddle east countries) have been reluctant to provide financial support or initiate a resettlement program. By this step Syria has had to back away from its “open door” policy to any Arab from any Arab country. The necessities of the day warrant new policies. Times have changed.
But that is only half the problem. The other half is closing the border to those trying to go into Iraq for terrorist activities. The border is porous and might not be closable. But, Damascus International Airport is the major transportation receiving center for non Iraqis wishing to enter Iraq to engage in terrorism. So far the Syrian government has been reluctant to establish a screening program because of its ‘admit any Arab’ policy. There is no security program at the airport to identify and hold these would be terrorists. Reports out of Bagdad state 90% of the suicide bombers are non-Iraqis. But once they pass through the airport they are moved through a series of safe houses to desert points on the border which are rarely patrolled. It is al ong and difficult border to control, but the airport is not.
September 6th, 2007, 1:00 pm
norman said:
Majed,
i will support Mr Paul too.
September 6th, 2007, 1:48 pm
Atassi said:
Norman,
You have a good habit of getting thinks wrong. FYI, I am a proud Syrian, but, being proud and nationalist doesn’t give me the right to attack other countries or peoples….
September 6th, 2007, 3:07 pm
norman said:
attasi,
That is not what a proud Syrian would say , I look at your deeds .
(Syria is the Arab country!!! that is news to me… What makes a county an Arab country? We need a description more then the typical slogan of ” Wahda, Houria and Eshtirakia”…)
September 6th, 2007, 5:37 pm
Atassi said:
We are missing the word ” only”
I meant to say
Syria is the ONLY Arab country!!! that is news to me… What makes a county an Arab country? We need a description more then the typical slogan of ” Wahda, Houria and Eshtirakia”…)
September 6th, 2007, 6:00 pm
norman said:
Attasi,
Look what Syria is doing for the Iraqies and it did for the Lebanese during last year war and what it is doing for the Palestinians , employment and treatment like the Syrians , Look at the other arab countries ,like KSA , Kuwait and others.syria just does more for the Arabs .
September 6th, 2007, 6:13 pm
wizart said:
Nuclear waste
The issue of nuclear waste was drawn attention to in a 2005 UN report: “Israeli authorities continued to bury their nuclear waste in a tract of land located about 100m from the summit of Jabal al-Sheikh, close to the Syrian border. Digging of a tunnel or trench in which to dump this waste was under way.”
Fears are that the nuclear waste, sealed in glass containers or reinforced cement chambers, would be affected by climatic conditions after 30-50 years and would start leaking depleted uranium, with a catastrophic ecological impact.
http://domino.un.org/UNISPAL.NSF/0080ef30efce525585256c38006eacae/6e3a6a238227c71c852570a6006e722d!OpenDocument
Strategic importance
The pro-Israel lobby continues to claim that the Golan Heights is of great strategic military importance to Israel due to the territory’s topography and plateaus, which overlook southern Syria and northern Israel. Furthermore, they claim that Israel captured the territory in 1967 because it was used by Syria to menace its southern neighbour.
Firstly, the strategic value of a territory provides absolutely no moral or legal justification for its conquest by a foreign force.
Secondly, in the words of Israel’s then-Defence Minister Moshe Dayan, released posthumously, Israeli policy on the Syrian border between 1949 and 1967 consisted of “snatching bits of territory and holding on to it until the enemy despairs and gives it to us.” Concerning border incidents in the Golan Heights, he goes on:
“I know how 80 percent of the clashes there started. In my opinion, more than 80 percent, but let’s talk about 80 percent. It went this way: We would send a tractor to plow someplace where it wasn’t possible to do anything, in the demilitarized area, and knew in advance that the Syrians would start to shoot. If they didn’t shoot, we would tell the tractor to advance farther, until in the end the Syrians would get annoyed and shoot. And then we would use artillery and later the air force also…” (Rami Tal, “Moshe Dayan: Soul Searching,” Yediot Aharonot, 27 April 1997, cited Shlaim, pp. 235-6)
Thirdly, any previous military value the Golan had has long vanished due to major advances in missile and aerial technology. Indeed, Israel and Syria have missiles that can reach any part of either country.
In August 2004, Israel’s then-Chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon told the Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot that there was no military reason why Israel could not withdraw to its pre-1967 border with Syria: “If you ask me, theoretically, if we can reach an agreement with Syria…my answer is that from a military standpoint it is possible to reach an agreement by giving up the Golan Heights. The army is able to defend any border.”
April 21st, 2008, 2:29 pm