Thursday, March 5, 2009
SALHANI: Syria is key
Claude Salhani
COMMENTARY:

As U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tours the Middle East she is likely to find the region facing greater tension than it has in many years.

She is also likely to find that the key to many of the doors to open – or shut – avenues toward peaceful negotiations or toward continued stagnation and the dangers that it involves, lies with Syria. Indeed, once again Syria holds many of the keys to the Middle East dilemma.

How is it that Damascus is in such a position of influence? And how can that influence be used to the advantage of peacemaking in the region?

Much of Syria’s influence today lies in its alliance with Tehran. But as her advisers will no doubt tell Mrs. Clinton, the Syrian-Iranian marriage is one purely of convenience not of love. It was an alliance brought about as a result of the former U.S. administration’s policy of isolating Damascus, which gave Syrian President Bashar Assad little choice. Remain isolated with Israel on one side and the Americans on the other, or form an alliance with Iran and thereby outflank the United States.

By playing his cards close to his chest, as he has been, Mr. Assad has positioned Syria as the only Arab country with enough clout with Iran and the opposition groups (read here what the United States and Israel call terrorist groups) to sway the peace process toward what it should be – a peace process, or toward the unthinkable – a new conflict in the region.

Mrs. Clinton will find as she visits the Middle East mounting Iranian influence in the region through its alliance with Syria and the Islamic Republic’s support of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as support of takfiri groups in Lebanon. All this has placed Tehran firmly on the Middle East political map much to the detriment of some Arab leaders who have recently voiced their displeasure to see “other countries” interfere in Arab affairs.

And recent statements from Iranian officials that Bahrain is “the 14th province of Iran” has done little to appease old fears among the Gulf states of Iran’s old claims to the oil-rich sheikdoms and kingdoms.

Meanwhile in Israel and the Palestinian Territories where Mrs. Clinton is visiting, the situation remains precarious. Israel, two weeks after its elections, remains without a new government as the country – and its immediate neighbors – continue to hold their breath to see who will ultimately emerge to lead in this difficult time. A centrist government, open to peace talks with the Palestinians, or a right-wing coalition taking a much firmer – and more dangerous – approach to the issue of how to resolve the problem?

Mrs. Clinton arrived in Israel amid a new report by Peace Now that Israel could double the number of settlers in the occupied West Bank. Such an eventuality would greatly impede the peace process that the Obama administration is trying to revive. Mrs. Clinton just arrived from a donor’s conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, held to raise money to reconstruct Gaza after the devastating war with Israel that began around Christmas. And as if to remind her, Hamas launched a few rockets at Israel.

What can be done to begin defusing the situation? Start by pushing for an agreement between Israel and Syria where Damascus can reclaim the Golan Heights.

Two things about the Golan: First, given today’s technology and advanced electronics and sophisticated gadgetry in defense techniques, holding the high ground is not a prerequisite to military superiority. Second, once Syria reclaims the Golan and signs a peace treaty it is highly unlikely that Bashar Assad would risk going to war and losing it again all in exchange for the “satisfaction” of firing a few rounds of artillery shells on Israeli localities. That would be more than idiotic.

Any peace deal between Israel and Syria should also include a peace treaty between Israel and Lebanon. The importance of the latter cannot be stressed enough. Here are the reasons.

(1) Leaving Lebanon out of the peace process will leave the conflict unresolved and leave the door open to a distinct possibility of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. Resolving the outstanding dispute over the Shebaa Farms and the village of Ghajar in southern Lebanon should – at least officially – remove the license from Hezbollah to retain its armed wing, which it calls a resistance movement.

(2) It should be made clear to Syria that there is a price associated with bringing it out of the cold. In exchange for normalized relations with the United States and for the return of the Golan Heights, Syria is to use its clout with Tehran to rein in and put a stop to military activities by Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups.

(3) It is imperative that the U.S. secretary of state and the Obama administration understand and recognize that Lebanon must not be made the scapegoat of a separate peace deal. That would simply shift the cards around. Lebanon must be part and parcel of any peace deal in the Middle East. Anything short of that would invest in a future conflict.

Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.

A friend of Landis said: “All of which sounds less like a meaningful conversation, and more like the Americans issuing orders. Perhaps not a new era of dialogue and liberal foreign policy after all?
”
How else can the US talk to the Syrians?

The Syrian regime should know very well how to receive orders. After all it is a dictatorship!

Joshua,

While I am not sure if a Syria Israel peace process can, or will, reach its desired conclusion, I don’t see how the American administration can possibly hope to avoid inevitable future disasters in the Middle East without working with Syria.

There is no need to wait longer hoping to get a better bargain from Syria. The Middle East is a dangerous place and Syria will not be negotiated away from the only sane options that CAN work.

America is a great country and it has been learning the Middle East for the past few decades… Damascus has been there for thousands of years.

It is simple .. With very few exceptions, whenever Syria and the United States could not agree on something in the Middle East, Syria was right, the Unites States was wrong.

On the subject of Syrian nuclear cover-up:

In the past year, I posted a question for someone to clarify the apparent contradiction arising from that we first had reports talking about a nuclear reactor for plutonium production, and later the UN finding of uranium traces at the bombed site. I guess there is no regular visitor to this blog, who is a nuclear physicist/engineer or a plain chemist. However, I have found out the following scientific explanation:
Metal uranium, which is uranium cladded by magnesium-alluminium alloy, or even natural uranium, is used as fuel for producing plutonium.

Wonderful 48th birthday post by Abu Fares. A Syrian blogger from Tartous

http://www.abufares.net/2009/02/meaning-of-life.html

ALEX,

The animation you posted #4 is by the same creators of ‘Waltz With Bashir’.
.

Turkey/Israel

Erdogan represent his people, not the west and not east.
He is working hard for his people.
I wish, other leaders , in the west and east, have the courage to learn from him.

The relationship between these two countries will never be the same.
Turkey lost trust in Israel !!! Israel is getting isolated due to breaking the international laws.

Israel has and used all kind of illegal bombs…don’t you think all efforts should be put on investigating that and bring the responsible people to be judged in an international court? It seems the invisable hands need the world to loose the focus on the issue !!

Friends,
I have been reading SC everyday, but unfortunately, I have not had a moment to comment. As you know, the former administration has substantially reduced science budget and we are forced to write too many proposals to compete for the meager available dollars. Add to that serious teaching responsibilities this semester, I am left with little time for commenting.

I just want you to know that I have not abandoned SC. I wanted to comment on Joshua’s excellent, yet very pessimistic article on the Golan issue, but did not have time.

Seeking the Truth
Even with the assumption of accurate, non-politicized analysis by the IAEA, one is dumbfounded to find material that are used in producing plutonium in a site (allegedly nuclear reactor site) before the site is completed.

Common sense dictates that one asks questions about several aspects of the story. So far, all we have is an accusation, but any logical thinking can put many holes in the story. Furthermore, we only heard of traces. If the site was active, as one would assume from the chatter, IAEA would not only find traces (despite of any massive efforts to bury the site), but would find significant quantities. An honest, non-politicized investigation demands that Israel and the US hand samples of the weapons used in the aggression for complete analysis and identification of whether these weapons can even be remotely the source of uranium traces. Is it beyond Israel actions even to disperse such material intentionally. I would think it is within the realm of possibility. Engineering situations to demonize Syria and Arabs in general has been a trademark of Israel political and intelligence operations. I guess Mosad learned a lesson or two from the Niger story they cooked and fed to their clients in the US.

Until these issues are addressed without dismissing Syria as a guilty party beforehand, I will not accept or reject IAEA assertions. I will consider them suspect.

In the end, Both Syria and Iran have put so much stock in Obama and in a changing administration. It is too early to tell whether Obama is serious. But with time, if the US can not demonstrate seriousness, both Syria and Iran must declare intention to leave the IAEA. KSA and Egypt should follow suite as should Algeria. On the last point, Obama has been sending very mixed signals. On the diplomatic side, he gave AIPAC and Clinton one of their neocon guys, on the intelligence side, he seems to be doing the best he can to minimize the weight of MOSAD feeds in US intelligence assessments, which is raising the ire of Israel firsters such as that Rosen fellow, and Israel does no wrong crowd such as our dear Chuck Schumer (whome i like and dislike at the same time). As they say, Go figure. But that is, IMHO, a smart president, with a level of intellectual rigor and complexity we have not seen since Clinton or I dare say Nixon.

Dear Off the Wall, We have missed you.

Sorry to be so pessimistic. I am optimistic about warming relations, especially now that Hillary is beginning to engage Iran. Then strategy of dividing Syria from Iran strikes me as very shortsighted and designed to lead to frustration and wheel spinning.

Esquire Magazine is doing a investigative report on the cross border attack into Syria by US special forces during the last months of the Bush administration. They are uncovering some pretty damning information – damning about US misinformation, that is. I look forward to its publication.

It looks like Turkey is the Islamic country that President Obama will give a major address in an Islamic and the System in Turkey is the System that the US likes for other Islamic nations , That should be very good for Syria.

AP foreign, Saturday March 7 2009 ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton says two U.S. representatives are holding discussions with Syrian officials in Damascus.

Clinton also says President Barack Obama will visit the country in the next month or so.

Clinton met Saturday with leaders of Turkey, an ally seen as key to resolving several U.S. foreign policy problems, including moving the U.S. military out of Iraq, blocking Iran’s nuclear ambitions and turning around the war in Afghanistan.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below.

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met Saturday with leaders of Turkey, a strategic ally that is key to resolving several U.S. problems, including moving the military out of Iraq, blocking Iran’s nuclear ambitions and turning around the war in Afghanistan.

Clinton talked with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for nearly two hours at his residence before visiting the mausoleum of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Turkey’s national founder. There, she recalled being in Ankara during her husband’s presidency and said she had returned to help President Barack Obama promote “the work the U.S. and Turkey must do to forge peace, prosperity and progress.”

Erdogan’s office said in a statement that the two discussed bilateral relations, the Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan and combatting terrorism.

Clinton also planned a joint news conference with Foreign Minister Ali Babacan and a meeting with President Abdullah Gul.

Turkey has been a supply route for American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and relations have improved after hitting a low in 2003 when Turkey refused to allow U.S. forces use its territory as a staging ground for the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

Turkey has said it is ready to serve as an exit route for U.S. troops pulling out of Iraq. The southern Incirlik air base has been used for transferring U.S. troops and equipment to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Turkey, meanwhile, wants the Obama administration to prevent Congress from labeling the killing of Armenians by Turks a century ago as genocide.

Historians estimate that up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed, an event widely viewed by genocide scholars as the first genocide of the 20th century. Turkey denies the deaths constituted genocide, saying the toll has been inflated, and that those killed were victims of civil war and unrest.

The US is seeing the light,

New US-Syria talks ‘constructive’
A senior US envoy involved in the first high-level contact between the US and Syria since 2005 has said the talks were “very constructive”.

Jeffrey Feltman, acting US secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, met officials including Foreign Minister Walid Muallem in the capital, Damascus.

Speaking after the talks, Mr Feltman said the US looked forward to progress on bilateral ties and regional issues.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has also cited Syria’s regional role.

Speaking in the Turkish capital, Ankara, on Saturday, Mrs Clinton said that the importance of the Syrian-Israeli peace track “cannot be overstated”.

Turkey has previously mediated in indirect peace talks between Syria and Israel, suspended last year, and has said it is ready to re-launch the talks if both sides are willing.

Syria’s ambassador to Britain told the BBC that the US must consider Arab aspirations and not just those of the Israelis.

US-Syria relations soured after Syria was widely accused of involvement in the 2005 killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri – an allegation Damascus denied.

Shortly afterwards Syria pulled out its troops from Lebanon, ending a 29-year presence in the country.

‘Long list’

Mr Feltman, a former US ambassador to Lebanon, was accompanied on the Damascus trip by Daniel Shapiro, of the White House’s National Security Council.

The pair have not met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

“ Syria is the gateway to peace in the Middle East ”

Sami Khiyami
Syrian ambassador to Britain

Ahead of the trip, Mr Feltman said the US envoys had a “long list” of concerns to discuss with Syrian officials.
Mr Feltman said: “Our trip to Syria… is an opportunity for us to start addressing these concerns and using engagement as a tool to promote our objectives in the region.”

He also sought to reassure the Lebanese that US support for Beirut was “unwavering”, despite the latest overtures towards Damascus.

The pair are expected to return to Beirut on Sunday for further consultations.

BBC state department correspondent Kim Ghattas, in Washington, says the US is concerned by Syria’s support for militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, alleged covert nuclear activities and interference in Lebanon’s affairs.

But Mr Feltman said the talks were not about finger-pointing but about discussing differences and identifying areas where American and Syrian concerns overlapped, our correspondent says.

He said Washington’s strategy for engagement was goal-oriented, a way to achieve objectives for diplomacy, our correspondent adds. No benchmarks or dates for further meetings were set.

Last month several leading US congressmen, including Senator John Kerry, went on an unofficial visit to Damascus for talks with the president.

‘Gateway to peace’

Mr Feltman served as US ambassador in Beirut until 2008, and is currently an acting assistant secretary of state.

As a congressional aide, Mr Shapiro was instrumental in drafting the Syria Accountability Act, which placed sanctions on Damascus in 2003.

During his time in Lebanon, Damascus accused Mr Feltman of orchestrating an anti-Syrian movement in Lebanon.

Syria’s ambassador to Britain, Sami Khiyami, told the BBC before Saturday’s meeting: “Syria is the gateway to peace in the Middle East.

“I think the American government, Mr Obama personally, has to take care of the aspirations of the Arab peoples and not only of the Israeli people.”

The last senior US official to visit Damascus was Richard Armitage, then deputy secretary of state, in January 2005.

Washington withdrew its ambassador from Syria shortly afterwards, following Mr Hariri’s assassination.

Damascus has tried to paint Saturday’s visit as something of a victory, proof that standing fast in the face of US pressure over the last few years has paid off, our correspondent says.

But the choice of envoys seems to signal that Washington is taking a tough but serious approach to its engagement, says our correspondent.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/7929819.stm

Published: 2009/03/07 14:36:09 GMT

© BBC MMIX

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Here is our friend Qunfuz

Dear Joshua
You do not have to be sorry for the pessimism. In fact, i found your analysis well grounded and justified and as usual an superbly done intellectual exercise. I think this is what we can call strategic thinking where one tries to present both sides of an argument in order to project possible futures and scenarios. I find that to be essential and worthy, and thank you for doing so.

The only argument I would make would be on the issue that Syria does not have cards to play with. I think Syria itself is the card. Even without trying to actively sabotage the neocon dream, for it has little of tactical ability to do so, sidelining Syria has proven futile. No one in the administration is totally convinced that an Iran-Syria divorce on the model that would allow Israel and
the US to attack Iran,be-it Iraqi war style, or Gaza style, is achievable. The Hariri faction in Lebanon is becoming less relevant in US calculation by the day, and it seem to have reached the point of diminishing return in Saudi’s own calculations. Internal information from KSA point to significant economic troubles starting from employment (in fact employability problem) of Saudi citizen, and reaching to Socialist-style low level corruption. Egypt is in Shamble, and Jordan, despite of my respect and affinity to Jordanian people(both Palestinians and Jordanians), does not have any bargaining cards. The gulf states seem to be sliding economically, and on political level, they find themselves forced to take positions that are at odd with the US and Israel. There are only few states in the region with the potential, and the institutions that will be capable of adopting a Turkish style model, and these would be Syria, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. For the rest, such model will require dramatic changes that would be inconsistent with the countries’ own socio political arrangements.

As such, If done well, Syria would make a much more viable US ally than any of its neighbors. It is less tied to Salafi thinking, despite of the current trends, it has a reasonably well educated middle class, and a strong sense of nationalism, which is a a pre-requisite for Turkish model. What makes Syria even more appealing, is the fact that its sense of nationalism not even mildly xenophobic. Syrians have no problem with others working and living in Syria, and they have not mistreated any group that took refuge in their own country. Starting with our Armenian brother, and I hope ending with the wave of temporary refugees as a result of Israel’s criminal war on Lebanon.

Alex
Is this Qunfuz or is the video from Qunfuz. ?

OTW

This is Qunfuz himself.