Religious Groups and Scholars of Islam in the Syrian Revolution – by Issam Eido
Posted by Matthew Barber on Sunday, June 1st, 2014
Issam Eido is a Neubauer Collegium Visiting Fellow and a Visiting Instructor of Islamic Studies and Arabic in the University of Chicago Divinity School. Dr. Eido’s research focuses on the Qur’an in late antiquity, hadith studies, and Sufi and Arabic literary and poetic studies. Graduating with his PhD in 2010 from Damascus University, he also served that institution from 2010-2012 as Lecturer in the Department of Qur’anic Studies and History of Islamic Sciences. In 2012 he was a Fellow of the “Europe in the Middle East/Middle East in Europe” research program at the Forum Transregionale Studien in Berlin. At the University of Chicago, he currently teaches Qur’anic Arabic.
Religious Groups and Scholars of Islam in the Syrian Revolution
by Issam Eido for Syria Comment
Clouds of ambivalence and uncertainty have obscured Syria’s religious landscape from the beginning of the revolution. In the particular way that the conflict developed across space and time, every individual affiliated with a religious group became compelled—sooner or later—to take sides. Needless to say, any declaration of alignment in the conflict carries serious consequences, especially for religious shaykhs who are looked to for guidance. If even tacitly supportive of the revolution, the position taken by shaykhs can lead to killings, arrests, or torture by the regime’s officers. On the other hand, a shaykh might lose his followers or be accused of being a spy or in-league with regime intelligence if he exhibits even nominal support for the opposition. Hence, the first stage of suffering was the dreadful obligation to choose a side, something that weighed on ulema everywhere and exacerbated whenever a shaykh’s popularity was on the rise or when there was specific danger in the area where he lived. Accordingly, the way that the conflict developed can help us understand the reason for the declarations of each shaykh at particular points in time, as well as explain (in some cases) why the focus was on one shaykh more than others.
The Syrian revolution has two trajectories: geographic and temporal:
The geographic trajectory of the revolution conferred upon the ulema—the Arabic word for Muslim religious and legal authorities—the responsibility to tell the truth about what was happening in the area where they resided. Accordingly, we understand that the first religious defection to occur was that of the mufti of Dara‘a, and that the first shaykhs who were exposed to killings, imprisonment, and other dangers were the shaykhs of Dara‘a. These were followed by those of the city of Homs whose shaykhs rebelled in their entirety, supporting the revolution from the oldest to the youngest. They subsequently suffered displacement, prison, or evacuation, including such shaykhs as Anas Swaid, Mamdouh Junaid, Adnan al-Saqqa. This city, therefore, didn’t experience the contravention of public expectations by any shaykh who had gained the trust of the people before the revolution. Moreover, some shaykhs of the city were leading demonstrations and giving speeches in public places, such as Shaykh Junaid. The city of Hama was the third city to engage strongly in the revolution, but it lacked prominent religious leaders because most of its significant figures were killed, arrested, or evacuated during the events of the 1980s. Since then, fear of persecution has led most of its shaykhs and students to follow ulema from Damascus and Aleppo.
As for Damascus, the revolutionary activity was divided between the city and its countryside. While the countryside was among the most active regions of the revolution since its beginning, demonstrations in the city were limited to a few mosques such as the al-Hasan and al-Rifai mosques. Therefore, we can understand the great weight of responsibility that the ulema of these places took on. While the countryside of Damascus didn’t witness any support for the regime on the part of any prominent shaykh (in particular in Dariyya, Muddamiya, Doma, and Harasta), the people of Damascus heard vague statements and declarations coming from their ulema. Among the Damascene ulema we do not find a direct and obvious declaration inviting people to demonstrate against the regime, yet most of their statements contained calls for an end to oppression, an urging for justice, and calls for political change and reform. However, the continuity of demonstrations that were occurring at the al-Hasan and al-Rifai mosques exposed their shaykhs to direct harm. Shaykh Kurayyemal-Rajeh was only placed under house arrest (by the Minister of Endowments), but Shaykh Usama al-Rifai was directly assaulted by security forces and armed shabiha on the holiest night of the Islamic calendar (the night of al-Qader, near the end of Ramadan). Then, Al-Rajeh and Al-Rifai departed the country, and founded a new association of ulema about which I will speak later.
As Aleppo joined the revolution later in 2012, most of its ulema avoided overt opposition of the regime. However, most of its prominent ulema did sign statements urging all to end the killing and oppression, and requesting relief for affected people, especially those in Homs. Still, these ulema were subjected to some degree of questioning, but not to the same extent of those in other cities, as the regime sought to give the impression that Aleppo was its spoiled child.
With regard to the temporal trajectory, the Syrian revolution underwent a number of major transitions: The first stage was peaceful protests; these were followed by the defecting of many soldiers from the regime’s army; then there was the establishment of the Free Army; then the discussion surrounding the announcement of Jihad; and finally the present situation with the emergence of civil and militant Salafi groups.
Before delving into the details of this trajectory, I should point out that traditional Islamic thought, which occupies almost all the discourse of Syrian religious individuals, groups and institutions, is generally a conservative form of thought. Namely, it generally conforms to the established traditions and norms, and does not possess a spirit of initiative and change. In addition, it is—in the Syrian case—moderate. Accordingly, its pronouncements are always late and after-the-fact, which causes it to lose its sheen.
In the first six months of the revolution, the religious groups were moderate. They did not prefer change by force and only issued vague statements. But this situation changed during Ramadan of 2011 when the regime used heavy military force in Hama. The revolution’s trajectory quickly began to shift toward an armed revolution, in particular after the first military defection, that of Husain al-Harmoush. Many official persons followed his lead, such as the mufti of Dara‘a and the later striking announcement of defection of young women from the Qubaisyyat, a group for Muslim women that is known for its political quietism.
In examining this trajectory, we see that the structure of the religious groups started to disintegrate and crumble as a result of multiple factors: the defections of followers, the departure of shaykhs from the country, the loss of shaykhs’ popularity, and members adopting a new outlook and changing allegiance to other groups with different ideas about how to manage the situation. The changing structure of these groups was very deep.
We can classify Syria’s old and newly-emergent religious groups according to the following six categories:
- First: Groups that support the revolution explicitly: most religious groups and their shaykhs in the Syrian countryside around most cities explicitly announced their support for the revolution. Some observers attributed this to a rural reaction against cities and against the official religious and political discourse that for many years had marginalized the countryside. But this analysis does not apply to some groups who worked for years prior to the revolution to develop a moderate or reformist religious discourse concerned with values of dignity, justice, and equality such as Shaykh Jawdat Saedd and Muaz al-Khateeb’s group. In addition, we find that most religious groups and leaders in Dara‘a, Homs, Hama, and most northeastern Syrian cities explicitly announced their support the revolution. There are also some ulema who openly declared their opinion in support of the revolution, such as Shaykh Ihsan Badarani—the religious advisor to the previous president Hafiz al-Assad. Badarani had been marginalized by the Syrian regime and religious institutions throughout Bashaar al-Assad’s reign, and some attributed his support for the revolution to this marginalization.
- Second: Groups that support the regime explicitly: It is difficult to identify a religious group that supported the regime, except the ministry of endowments’s official institutions, its branches in cities, and some institutions that are associated with the ministry, such as the Abu al-Nour (Kuftaro) Institute. The ministry of endowments strove throughout the revolution to establish new groups and associations under different titles such as “The Association of Damascene Ulema” claiming that ulema actually supported the regime. These new associations often included some imams of mosques and some directors of official institutes like the directors of Abu al-Nour and al-Fateh Institutes, as well as some muftis. But the most prominent figures of these associations were the internationally renowned al-Buti and the grand Mufti Hassoun. While the Hassoun’s attitude was not surprising, al-Buti’s statements, speeches, lessons, and fatwas were surprising and generated many discussions and debates in online forums. This resulted in him losing most of his followers as we see in a record on the internet showing that only 20 to 40 students continued attending his lessons compared with a huge number of students who were attending prior to the revolution. Ultimately, al-Buti and many of his students were massacred during one of his weekly lessons in March 2013 in a well-known Damascus mosque, although there are conflicting reports about who was responsible.
- Third: Groups that nominally support the regime: Most groups whose attitudes are ambiguous are Sufi groups and the Qubaisyyat (the group for religious Muslim women). While some activists claim that these groups support the revolution, others provide records that prove their support for the regime. In the case of the Qubaisyyat, the regime strove to display them as supporters by means of some pictures that showed them meeting with the president—an event that many said happened under coercion. As for Sufi groups, the ambiguity of their attitude was to be expected, as these groups are concerned mainly about individual and spiritual affairs rather than public ones. This, however, led to many questions about the role of these groups. Ambiguity was the general feature of most Sufi groups in Aleppo, such as the Keltawiyya, some of whose followers leaked a record indicating that their Shaykh Mahmoud Hout supported the regime and insulted the rebels. But afterwards, other followers leaked a record which indicated his criticism of the regime. It would be mistaken to assume that this pattern of ambiguity applied to all Sufi groups, as there were instances that stood in stark contrast, such as that of Shaykh Abu al-Huda al-Yaqubi in Damascus and Shaykh Mahmoud Abu al-Huda al-Husaini in Aleppo whose support for the revolution was explicit early on. Some attributed this to their higher levels of education.
- Fourth: Groups that nominally support the revolution: Most Damascene and some Aleppan ulema fell into this category during the first year of the revolution. This ambiguity started to change when the revolution reached Aleppo and Damascus. A good example of where we can see this ambiguity is in the Shari‘a faculties of universities where most of the lecturers supported the revolution with indistinct, opaque language. They were reluctant to exhibit overt support because they were suffering concern on two fronts: the fear of the official channels of Syrian intelligence as well as pressure from their own colleagues.
- Fifth: New groups outside Syria: in the first year of the revolution, some new organizations were established by Syrian ulema, most of whom had already been living outside of Syria before the revolution began. One example is the “Syrian Ulema Association” whose head is Shaykh Ali al-Sabouni and whose vision is basically traditional. This organization issued many statements that are considered the first religious statements against the regime. The “Syrian Islamic Forum” was established in Istanbul by a number of Syrian ulema. These had escaped from the country with a few exceptions like Shaykh Anas Swaid from Homs. Although this institute relies on shari‘a as the source of law, it sees citizenship as a right for all Syrians, and it describes itself as moderate and committed to developing an open and deep Islamic discourse. There is also the “Islamic Organization of Sham (Greater Syria)” that was also established in Istanbul at the end of 2011 by ulema unknown to most Syrians, and which presented itself as an extensive Islamic reformist organization that considered citizenship a right for all Syrians. However, the most important organization founded during the revolution was “The Ulama of al-Sham Association” which was created quite late (Sept. 2012) in Doha by several ulema who escaped from Syria, such as Shaykh Kurayyem al-Rajeh, the association’s head, Shaykh Usama al-Rifai the deputy, Saria al-Rifai, Rateb al-Nabulsi, Mamdouh Junaid, Adnan al-Saqqa, and Abd al-Kareem Bakkar. These scholars aimed to support the revolution through “Jihad al-Kalima”—a jihad through words—to form a religious reference point through which they could advise rebels on how to act according to shari’a, propagate a moderate discourse that dismisses sectarian behavior, and deal with all Syrians as equals.
- Sixth: New groups growing inside Syria: Most of these groups have been founded in exceptionally violent circumstances, and have generally emerged as a reaction to brutal acts of the regime, or as relief groups and judicial councils in the areas that moved out of the regime’s control. These groups can be classified according to three types: ulema, judges, and armed militants. However, these groups generally have two common features: they are young and rural. Since the armed groups emerged as a reaction to the regime’s brutality, they generally promote extreme attitudes which often adopt the Salafi vision. As for other groups, they are almost all students of Syrian universities, in particular the shari‘a colleges, a fact which bolstered their credibility and gave them a level of trustworthiness. We see this in the countrysides of Aleppo and Damascus in such examples as the Association of Ulema in Jabal al-Zawia and the local judgment council in the countryside of Aleppo.
We can now conclude with several points:
- Most official religious institutes have continued supporting the regime, in particular the Ministry of Endowments and its institutes, such al-Fateh, Abu al-Nour, and the Syrian Mufti.
- Most traditional institutes, in particular mosques providing lessons, ceased their activities as most ulema fled to neighboring countries.
- New groups emerged inside Syria, most of whose ideas are based on criticizing the official and traditional religious and legal discourses, in which most of these growing groups believed that these religious and legal discourses were one of the most important reasons for the continuity of the Ba‘ath regime.
- However, the traditional ulema still have popularity among Syrian people especially in Damascus where conservative and moderate Damascenes consult the opinions of these ulema regarding every event.
- The general religious landscape of Syria is currently characterized by two primary views: that of the late prominent Shaykh al-Buti who strongly supported the regime, and that of the many religious groups who believe that the battle represents a religious and sectarian conflict. This fact prompted many wise ulema and groups outside Syria to strive to conduct a non-sectarian revolution that would emphasize a citizenship of greater inclusivity. However, with the continuous brutality of the regime, the lack of any convincing political solution, and the passive role of the international community, Syria continues to be entrenched in sectarian conflict, remaining an ideal environment for the operation of extremists.
Comments (96)
Amir in Tel Aviv said:
A Zionist Arab in an anti-Assad demonstration in London:
June 1st, 2014, 6:55 pm
Amir in Tel Aviv said:
Jasmine,
Who said that the Golan belongs to Syria? Sykes and Picot said so? Why should we in 2014 follow the 100 y/o decisions of two colonial politicians, who don’t belong in this region?
I don’t want to go into arguments with you, “it’s mine” .. “No, it’s not yours, it’s mine…” .. etc.
What is going on in our region demands a new kind of thinking; a new approach to old myths and truths. Handing the Golan to Syria will “advance” us to 1967. And nothing will change.
Why not test new thinking? like.. the Golan will be neither Israeli nor it will be Syrian. Can it be an international territory (may be tax-free zone), like Antarctica is, but will be: (a) High-tech park (b) territory for study of wild life / agriculture / culture.
Or may be it could be the homeland of the Druze people. Or may be the UN will lease the territory for, say, 200 years for establishing of humanitarian regional center.
What I’m saying is, let’s refresh.. or even reboot old and irrelevant ideas.
June 1st, 2014, 7:20 pm
mjabali said:
Weak article for many reasons:
1- Instead of trying to explain to us what the word “Ulema” The writers should have given us the name of the Sheikh who defected early in Dar’a.
2- To say that All the Shiekhs of Homs went against al-Assad is a generalization that could be proven wrong in many ways.
3- The writer neglected what happened in Banyas, that went up against al-Assad right after Dar’a: the leader was Sheikh Ayrut…why this article neglected this?
4- The writer also neglected Jableh: Where Sheikhs were leading the charge…?
5- What is story with the word “trajectory?”
Of course the biggest downfall of this article is the chaotic writing.
June 1st, 2014, 11:08 pm
Jasmine said:
Amir
That was a good try,you have to work harder to convince 23 millions Syrians.
You have reminded me of Edward Said ‘s quote:
“My argument is that history is made by men and women, just as it can also be unmade and rewritten, always with various silence and elisions, always with shapes imposed and disfigurements tolerated.”
June 1st, 2014, 11:14 pm
Ghufran said:
The so- called religious scholars and religious leaders share much of the blame for turning what was supposed to be a peaceful uprising into a sectarian armed rebellion led by terrorists and religious zealots. By failing to provide Syrians with an acceptable alternative to the regime, those religious leaders played in the hands of Assad and cemented his monopoly on minorities votes. To make things worse, religious leaders in the ” revolution” added secular and moderate sunnis to their list of Kuffar and Dalleein ( misguided) but still gave them one more chance than Shia and alawites ( and Christians) who are considered hopeless cases according to “ulamaa alummah”.
This war allowed unemployed and shallow minded individuals to grow a beard and join the army of islamoid sheikhs who treated their audience with a diarrhea of fatwas that did no good but confirmed what I knew for years:
This is a nation that stil lives in the middle ages , the political IQ of most Muslims is not better than that of a six grader, most people either want a Khilafah ( Taliban style) or a non religious dictaroship ( a king or a king in disguise), the issues of choice, tolerance and freedom are not in most people’s dictionary today, they say feed me, give me a job then give me a lecture about democracy, religious organizations are feeding a lot of people and giving them temp jobs ( as jihadists or jihadists helpers) but in return they want their followers to pledge allegiance to a theory of governance that is only fit for the middle ages.
June 1st, 2014, 11:53 pm
Juergen said:
Assad media outlets claim that 250.000 Syrians living in Lebanon have voted.
There was only one place to vote at, the Syrian embassy to Lebanon.
Lets assume they were open last Wednesday for 12 hours.
That means 20833 in one hour.
That means 347 in one minute.
That means 6 voters per second.
Come on, this is ridiculous!
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=298109480313828&set=a.190650757726368.18268.190416144416496&type=1&theater
June 2nd, 2014, 12:24 am
Juergen said:
Damascus 1938
June 2nd, 2014, 12:33 am
Juergen said:
Must read piece in Los Angeles Review of Books (LARB) trashes washed-up Seymour Hersh’s dangerous pro-Bashar propaganda on Syria: ‘Propaganda usually functions on one of two tracks: sometimes it builds support for a desired policy, sometimes it saps support for an undesired one. The former relies on persuasion, the latter on obfuscation. “Doubt is our product” is the assurance PR firms in the 1950s gave to a jittery tobacco industry facing accumulating scientific evidence linking cigarettes to cancer. Energy companies wishing to impede environmental legislation have since invested in the same strategy. This is also Hersh’s method.’
A Dangerous Method: Syria, Sy Hersh, and the Art of Mass-crime Revisionism by Muhammad Idrees Ahmad
http://lareviewofbooks.org/essay/dangerous-method-syria-sy-hersh-art-mass-crime-revisionism
June 2nd, 2014, 2:00 am
Juergen said:
June 2nd, 2014, 9:36 pm
Juergen said:
The Opinion-Makers: How Russia Is Winning the Propaganda War
With the help of news services like RT and Ruptly, the Kremlin is seeking to reshape the way the world thinks about Russia. And it has been highly successful: Vladimir Putin has won the propaganda war over Ukraine and the West is divided.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/russia-uses-state-television-to-sway-opinion-at-home-and-abroad-a-971971.html
June 3rd, 2014, 2:36 am
ALAN said:
Germans!
if you doubt, then an eastern Germany again find itself sovereigns separate state! And the western find itself in permafrost
June 3rd, 2014, 7:19 am
Akbar Palace said:
Amir,
I enjoyed the youtube video. It seems people are more interested in Israel “The Apartheid State that Isn’t” than Assad and his “legacy” of ruining Syria with +150k dead, cities turned to rubble and 2 million refugees.
Why does Israel get more attention than the rest of the criminal world?
Go to the Veterans Today website and take a look at anti-semites who believe Israel and Jews are the cause of everything bad in the world. It’s mind boggling.
You guys are lucky you didn’t make a treaty with Syria.
June 3rd, 2014, 11:31 am
Jasmine said:
I am in a celebratory mood today.
I am opening a bottle of champagne.
CHEERS !
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YDENkGHVL0g
June 3rd, 2014, 11:50 am
Jasmine said:
I said this nearly three years ago and no one believed me:
Celui qui rira bien ,rira le dernier!
June 3rd, 2014, 12:35 pm
Juergen said:
Jasmine
I really like if people have a good time, but celebrating with more than 200.000 Syrians killed, with 9 Millions awarded with an refugee status, and still in the kullu bi khair mode? Honestly, only in the ME such state of mind could persist I’m afraid. Did you honestly like this parody of democracy in Basharland today?
Alan
Please change your online translation programme, or write in Arabic, i cant get your point. I would say Thank God Putin wasnt around in the Kremlin when we received our reunification in Germany.
June 3rd, 2014, 12:57 pm
Akbar Palace said:
Juergen (post #8),
Hersh is a POS (figure out that acronym;). He’s never met a despot he hasn’t fallen in love with, or a representative from a free democracy he hasn’t despised.
We jews put him in the “jewish khara” category like Finkelstein, Chomsky, Falk, Gilad Atzmon, etc. They’re few, but they’re VERY smelly!
June 3rd, 2014, 1:32 pm
Jasmine said:
Juergen
It is a big step towards democracy,I am positive in my way of thinking,I look at the cup half full all the time,there is nothing perfect in this life,we Syrians want an end to the blood shed and we don’t want the west in our lands,with being patient we were rewarded and if this happened anywhere else in this world,people would have committed mass suicide.
Chapeau to every Syrian in my beloved Syria.
June 3rd, 2014, 1:41 pm
Uzair8 said:
Credit where credit’s due. Assad’s adviser and no doubt presidential campaign strategist Buthaina Shaaban will have delivered a massively successful election victory.
What a woman! The Karl Rove of Syria! No, she can go beyond the american genius. Afterall Bush/Rove were limited to only 2 terms…
June 3rd, 2014, 2:56 pm
Uzair8 said:
Alan
Rejoice! You’re not alone anymore, you have 2 friends…oh wait, one’s gone now (ban).
Not to worry, the Arab and Islamic exterminator is still here.
Your choice of company is disappointing to say the least.
June 3rd, 2014, 3:07 pm
Ghufran said:
There is no better way to judge the political maturity of a nation than watching it during times of elections and the handover of authority from one government to another. Syria and most Muslim nations do not have real elections and are unwilling to tolerate political dissent. Most Muslim leaders are removed from power by either natural death , coups or assassinations . Assad supporters in Latakia, for example, have already declared who the next president will be and have turned the city into a terror show by firing tons of rounds of live ammunition in the air to celebrate the ” election” of the guided leader for a third term while Syria has turned on his watch into a nation of refugees and impoverished people.
Expect Assad to show his gratitude by releasing few political prisoners and giving state employees a raise.Assad opponents on the other hand are busy shelling residential areas and fighting each others over oil and political power.
يا أمة ضحكت من جهلها الامم
June 3rd, 2014, 3:14 pm
Juergen said:
June 4th, 2014, 12:13 am
Juergen said:
June 4th, 2014, 12:40 am
ALAN said:
15. JUERGEN
/Thank God Putin wasnt around in the Kremlin when we received our reunification in Germany./
Beware that there is an option to lose everything.Your grandparents can tell you better
June 4th, 2014, 2:32 am
Juergen said:
I think the biggest surprise will be how will the regime tell his people that only 91% of the Syrians voted for the donkey president? Can Syrians accept such an disgrace?
We have to admit finally that Assad is the protector of minorities. Here is a sample listing:
The minority of felons;
The minority of non-thinkers shabiha
The minority of spies and secret agents (Hmm is this a minority?);
The minority of the torturers and rapists in the name of the regime…
Alan
at least my grandparents can tell me things got better after the Hitler regime, that we were able to rebuild cities destroyed like Aleppo, that were were able to heal from the rascism and the hate. They can tell me that we had 9 different chancelors and heads of state since the end of the war and that we have elections the people care about, and the results arent predicted or edited in some government office.
June 4th, 2014, 2:49 am
ALAN said:
/ Vladimir Putin has won the propaganda war over Ukraine and the West is divided./
German General Kujat…..
http://larouchepac.com/node/30942#.U4sldLFv1dk.twitter
Joe Biden’s Son Appointed Director of Ukraine’s Largest Gas Company
http://burisma.com/hunter-biden-joins-the-team-of-burisma-holdings/
June 4th, 2014, 4:11 am
Uzair8 said:
It seems we have a racist/Islamaphobic Dalek on SC. Perhaps Aboud can get in touch with the Tardis and let the good Doctor know?
“Never cruel nor cowardly, never give up, never give in.”
Dr Who
June 4th, 2014, 9:44 am
Uzair8 said:
Dalek – (“Exterminate. Exterminate.”).
June 4th, 2014, 9:50 am
Juergen said:
88 % for Assad. What an result. Does that mean 200.000+ killed and 9 millions displaced Syrians just bring his approval down by 11%? How many Syrians have to die more to bring his reign to an end?
June 4th, 2014, 4:11 pm
Syrialover said:
The bizarre sham election stunt in Syria will be forgotten within months. The only things that WILL be remembered about Bashar Assad are (i) how he murdered and smashed up Syria (ii) that he did it with the help of alien foreign power Iran, and (ii) what a weird creepy-looking creature he was.
June 4th, 2014, 5:34 pm
Syrialover said:
I see the UK is going to bring in laws that will put returning jihadists in jail for life, treating what they did in Syria the same as if it was a crime committed in Britain.
Excellent!
Then let’s extend that law to Rifaat Assad for what he did in Syria with the Hama massacre. And see it’s applied to other sleazy shabiha who have slunk off to live in comfort after helping murder Syria.
June 4th, 2014, 5:41 pm
Syrialover said:
JUERGEN, I loved that comment in #6.
What the regime is talking about was the rate at which they record their count of phony votes. Six per second shows what advanced computing systems they have.
And on #28 – They pulled that 88% vote for Assad figure out of the air because they have heard how loud the world laughs at the 99% rate the Assads usually claim. That’s how stupid they are – that they assume others are are stupid as themselves.
June 4th, 2014, 5:56 pm
Syrialover said:
JASMINE,
Your statements don’t add up.
You refer to “my beloved Syria”. Yet you rejoice at Assad’s pseudo electoral victory.
Huh? What?
You can’t love Syria. You must only love whatever you have invested there via the Assad regime.
June 4th, 2014, 6:03 pm
ALAN said:
“bashar al assads days are numbered” HAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
June 4th, 2014, 6:09 pm
Ghufran said:
A late admission by Ismael Haidar in almundassah :
الثورة قد فشلت –للأسف- بكسب جماهير جديدة، بل على العكس فإن الثورة عبر صراعاتها المتكاثرة ساهمت بطرد جماهير كانت تؤيدها في البداية، فمما لا شك فيه أن النازحين في لبنان هم من مناطق احتضنت الثورة ودمرها بشار الأسد بحربه على السوريين، ولكن أخطاء الجيش الحر وأبناء الثورة نفسها واستخفافهم بجماهيرهم وحواضنهم الاجتماعية جعلهم ينفرون من الثورة، بل ويحمّلون الجيش الحر مسؤولية الدمار الحاصل في بلادهم.
على مستوى الخطاب الإعلامي نجد أن الخطاب الطائفي في قوى الثورة أقوى مما هو عليه عند قوى النظام، في حين نجد أن السلوك الطائفي عند النظام هو أقوى مما هو عليه عند قوى الثورة، وهذا ما ساهم بإبعاد قوى وشرائح كبيرة من الشعب السوري عن الثورة، وجعلها تصدق بروباغاندا النظام السوري الذي يدعي حماية الأقليات في سوريا.
ما هو جديد هذه المرة أن الخطاب الطائفي الذي استغلته هذه القوى وعملت على تعزيزه ومحاربة أي خطاب وطني جامع في الثورة، انقلب على أصحابه، وإذا بهم بدؤوا يخسرون الشعب «السني» في سوريا الذي كانوا يدعون تمثيله.
ما زال للنظام إلى الآن، برغم طائفيته المقيتة المحفزة لكل الطائفيات في سوريا، ظهير سني قوي، بل ويصر النظام على وجوده دائمًا، بينما تعمل قوى هيمنت على الثورة على طرد أي «مسلم» لا ينتمي لأفكارها، عدا عن خطاب إعلامي تحريضي ضد غير المسلمين ساهم بإبعادهم وزيادة مخاوفهم الموجودة أصلًا.
Mr Haidar agrees that what we have seen is not necessarily a win by Assad as much as it was a defeat by the opposition. He accuses the opposition of losing support by relying on a sectarian line of propaganda and using religious slogans which alarmed many Syrians including Sunnis. He added that the regime still has support among Sunnis and refuses to accept the opposition claim that those who voted for Assad, especially in Lebanon, did so out of fear alone.
Nobody expected Assad to lose the ” election” but many were genuinely surprised by the reaction of Syrians in Lebanon and places like Aleppo and other provinces that are not tightly controlled by the regime.
The only response by the NC was a renewed call for more weapons !!
كل ثوره و انتم بخير
My Tozz goes to both the thawrajiyyeh and the Assadists who rode the crazy horse trying to win a race that can only lead to the loss of the country.
The random celebratory bullets of Assad supporters killed 3 people and wounded 40 in Latakia alone, congratulations.
Syrians are sick of this war, sick of the ” revolution” and sick of the politicians on both sides, they chose to let the guided leader be crowned again because they were not given a better option.
Trying to understand why sisi’s 96% win is more democratic that Assad’s ” modest” 87%:
يا امة ضحكت من جهلها الامم
June 4th, 2014, 11:29 pm
Badr said:
“they were not given a better option”
Why the heck should they be, if “most people either want a Khilafah ( Taliban style) or a non religious dictaroship ( a king or a king in disguise)”!
June 5th, 2014, 2:06 am
Jasmine said:
A very objective article !
http://www.mymotherlode.com/news/ap-news-details?ID=b3319dcfec274eab957335c8ad93292b&type=world&subtype=world
June 5th, 2014, 2:55 am
ALAN said:
The future of Europe in the 21st century!!
The old post-cold war order is now forever over. A quarter century after the falloff the Berlin Wall, a new and highly volatile geopolitical landscape is emerging in Europe. Its contours and content are not yet clearly evident, however…..
the struggle for Syria continues. West would launch an offensive against anyone who does not want to obey to its will. In many ways, the course of this confrontation will be determined by how things go in the Ukraine. If US puppets in Kiev will not take any cohesive actions to stabilize the situation in the country, their defeat will be yet another costly defeat for the West. And then it is possible that the US and NATO will try to “get things even” in Syria and then in Iran. Washington has virtually declared a “jihad” against Russia, since it has desperately trying to maintain its positions in Europe and in the Middle East. At the same time US authorities are forgetting that today in a region that is much more important to their critical interests – East Asia, China has been advancing politically and economically.
June 5th, 2014, 8:44 am
ALAN said:
Again, Kerry leveled no criticism against Saudi Arabia, Israel or Ukraine. Saudi Arabia, of course, has no presidential elections at all, while Israel and Ukraine fit the very description that Kerry applies to Syria.
The European Union predictably followed the U.S. in condemning the election results.
Assad was expected to win the election not because the elections were rigged, but because he was seen as a reformer even before the destabilization effort and a liberator afterwards. With the Western onslaught of terrorism against the Syrian people, Assad’s popularity only grew larger.
In the end, while the Syrian elections may anger the Anglo-Americans and Anglo-Europeans, they have also shown the hypocrisy of the West when it comes to its support for a vague concept of “democracy.” These elections were as much a rejection of Western imperialism as they were a choice of president and an embrace of self-rule.
Not only must we respect the decisions of the Syrian people, we must congratulate them in their resilience and their resistance to imperialism and Western-backed terrorism.
http://www.activistpost.com/2014/06/assad-wins-syrian-elections-kerry.html
June 5th, 2014, 8:57 am
Jasmine said:
Alan
Europe and USA are gutted after failing in Afghanistan and Iraq,they are still trying to keep their influence in the ME by Arming the Gulf and stir the war with Iran,protect Israel and keep the area inflamed.
The Cold War has never ended and is taking different dimensions,with the emerging big Eastern nations which are willing to provide arms to SA;China sold Them Drones recently.
On the other hand the rapprochement between Iran and SA is going to reduce the role of USA and Europe very soon.
Ukraine is the west’s last dice and Putin will never allow them to win it.
All these nations are looking so well after their own interest but we stupid Syrians didn’t know how to play the game,we were the heart of Arabs for too long and we were rewarded by taking Syria back to the Middle Ages.
June 5th, 2014, 9:26 am
Uzair8 said:
“In times of tyranny and injustice, when law oppresses the people, the outlaw takes his place in history.”
Robin Hood (2010)
June 5th, 2014, 12:33 pm
Uzair8 said:
Not long ago when the Shabiha supposedly advanced in Homs and went on a looting spree, the Shabiha anthem came to mind…
Lost In The Supermarket – The Clash (1979)
I’m all lost in the supermarket
I can no longer shop happily
I came in here for that special offer
A guaranteed personality
I wasn’t born so much as I fell out
[…]
June 5th, 2014, 12:39 pm
Uzair8 said:
I wonder if Matthew being linked to the University of Chicago, former Mafia capital of America, may (partly) explain his interest in Syria.
Before the Shabiha get all over-confident on Assad’s survival prospects post election, just like his Chicago counterpart (Al Capone – tax) Assad’s demise may well come from left field.
Perhaps like Aboud once wrote it may well be an Alawite who takes him out. Maybe Asma may rediscover her roots and bake him some Cannoli (think Don Altobello – Godfather 3). Then again it may be just a case of a falling spent cartridge from celebratory gunfire…
June 5th, 2014, 1:25 pm
ALAN said:
Bashar Al-Assad won this election with almost 88% of the Syrian vote, but never mind what the Syrian people want: the US and Israel want regime change in Syria as a prelude to an attack against Iran, after the P5+1 talks with Iran are engineered to fail before the July 20th deadline here.
It has become an uncomfortable reality of being an American citizen that in the 21st century, those values for which used to think this country stood, no longer exist.
There is no honor; there is no truth; there is no peace; there is no freedom; and their is no honoring of human rights in this country, or outside of it, when there are specific geopolitical outcomes which are desired by the rulership of US
It is rarely ever their kids who are going to be maimed for life, or killed outright, in what are essentially wars ultimately for private profit. That is why these immoral and illegal wars are fought; for private profit.
American citizen.
June 5th, 2014, 1:59 pm
Juergen said:
الدكتور فيصل القاسم
سئل الماغوط:
الانتخابات عندكم في سوريا تصدر بنسبة 99% فمن هي الشريحة التي لاتتجاوز 1% والتي قالت لا..فرد الماغوط: الشعب
Muhammad Almaghot,a syrian writer, was asked: Your elections are always won by 99%, who are those 1%? He answered: The people !
June 5th, 2014, 9:51 pm
ALAN said:
American citizen.
http://www.channel4.com/news/i-spent-18-years-in-prison-for-a-murder-i-didnt-commit
June 6th, 2014, 8:09 am
Juergen said:
an older interview, yet quite true these days…
Interview | Noam Chomsky: While Syria descends into suicide, Israel and the US are enjoying the spectacle
In an exclusive interview for Ceasefire, renowned scholar Noam Chomsky talks to Frank Barat about the current situation in the Middle East, notably the crisis in Syria, the peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, and the role of US power in the region.
“CF: In your opinion what is really at stake in what’s unravelling in Syria at the moment, and what does it mean for the broader region?
NC: Well, Syria is descending into suicide. It’s a horror story and getting worse and worse. There’s no bright spot on the horizon. What will probably happen, if this continues, is that Syria will be partitioned into probably three regions; a Kurdish region – which is already forming – that could pull out and join in some fashion the semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, maybe with some kind of deal with Turkey.
The rest of the country will be divided between a region dominated by the Assad regime – a brutal horrifying regime – and another section dominated by the various militias, which range from the extremely malicious and violent to the secular and democratic. Meanwhile, Israel is looking by and enjoying the spectacle. If you look at the New York Times this morning there’s a quote by an Israeli official essentially expressing their joy at watching Arabs slaughter each other.”
http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/noam-chomsky-syria-descends-suicide-israel-enjoying-spectacle/
June 6th, 2014, 4:11 pm
ALAN said:
American citizen- Niceville, Florida
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/06/05/empire-of-prisons/
June 6th, 2014, 4:38 pm
Majed97 said:
Very good article from Alakhbar…
ولئن كان من اليسير أن نقول إنّ هذه كانت رغبة النّظام وسياسته، وأنّ كلّ دعواته لـ«الإصلاح» و«الحوار» كانت وهميّةً وزائفة، أو غير مقبولة «تحت سبطانات الدبابات»، فإنّه من الثابت أيضاً أنّ كلّ فصائل المعارضة، تقريباً، كانت قد اتّفقت منذ أواسط عام 2011 على رفض الحوار والتفاوض مع النظام، من «اعلان دمشق» إلى «الإخوان» إلى «هيئات التنسيق المحلية»، وقد أُنشئ «المجلس الوطني» على هذا الأساس.
النظريّة هنا كانت أنّ المسألة قد أضحت مسألة «مبدأيّة» و«أخلاقيّة» (حين كان عدد القتلى في سوريا بالعشرات وبالمئات)، لأنّ النظام «قاتلٌ» و«يجب أن يرحل». التناقض هو في أن تعتمد هذا الموقف ثمّ ترفض السلاح والعسكرة، لا يمكنك أن تعتمد وصفةً للحرب ثمّ ترفض أدواتها. ماذا تعتقدون أنّه سيحصل في أيّ بلد في العالم إذا خرجت التظاهرات وهي تنادي بأنّ النظام الدستوري بكامله غير شرعيّ، وأنّ القوانين غير نافذة، وحملت علماً مختلفاً عن علم البلاد، وطالبت بالحماية الدوليّة؟ الخطيئة هنا مزدوجة: في أنك ترفض الكلام مع النظام وفي أنك غير قادرٍ على إسقاطه.
يحقّ للانسان أن يشتكي من مسار التاريخ، ولكن لا يحقّ له أن يستغرب حين يفعل المنطق البسيط فعله. هذا دأب من يهلّل لـ«غزوات» المعارضة المسلّحة على المدن والحواضر السوريّة، ثمّ يتباكى عليها بعد أشهر لأنها صارت خراباً وميدان حرب. حين تدعم، على سبيل المثال، حركةً سياسيّة يهيمن عليها «الاخوان المسلمون» السوريّون، الذين لهم ماضٍ في القتل الطائفي وكانوا حتى سنتين قبل الحرب (سنتان فحسب، نحن لا نتكلّم على تاريخ سحيق)، في تحالفٍ رسميّ مع ادارة جورج بوش – عبر «جبهة الخلاص الوطني» – بغية «تحرير سوريا» على الطريقة العراقية، فهل يحقّ لك، فعلاً، أن تتفاجأ وتُصدم حين تكتسب الثّورة ملامح طائفيّة ويسلك ممثّلوها الطريق الليبي؟
http://al-akhbar.com/node/206913
June 6th, 2014, 8:25 pm
habib said:
What “Syrian Revolution” is the author talking about? If the government wasn’t replaced, there was no revolution. It’s as simple as that. No more wishful thinking.
June 7th, 2014, 8:17 am
Ghufran said:
Abduazeem will start his own coalition after he realized that the NC is a burnt card now, he and those who choose to join him have an opportunity to moderate their language and build a broad base of participants who denounce violence by both the regime and the rebels and call for a new phase of political struggle to rebuild Syria and change its government without the use of guns, wahabi jihad and car bombs. For him to succeed he also needs to win the support of Syrians inside Syria.
After 3 years of trying to topple the regime by force, rebels and their backers only managed to alienate millions of Syrians who have seen their lives turning from bad to worse, and the only party that the rebels helped was Assad and his cronies.
Assad introduced himself as a transitional leader who wants to open a new page and improve the lives of Syrians, he clearly failed after staying on the job for 14 years and for Syria to rise up again he needs to go, that did not happen because the agents of change were worse than the regime.
June 7th, 2014, 9:04 pm
ALAN said:
vice president of The Future of Freedom Foundation
http://fff.org/explore-freedom/article/tgif-the-disaster-that-is-u-s-foreign-policy/
June 8th, 2014, 7:53 am
ghufran said:
Librahimi speaking up his mind after leaving his post:
اعتبر المبعوث الأممي والعربي السابق إلى سوريا، الأخضر الإبراهيمي، أن الصراع في سوريا “أثر على دول الجوار، لاسيما لبنان، فهو لا يقتصر على سوريا وحدها”، محذراً من أن “المنطقة بأسرها ستنفجر إذا لم يتم التوصل إلى حل”.
وأشار الإبراهيمي إلى أن إحدى أمانيه خلال فترة مهمته “كانت أن ينقل الرئيس بشار الأسد سلطاته”، مضيفاً أن ذلك “هو الوضع المثالي”، وأنه حلم بالانتقال إلى سوريا “جديدة عن طريق ضمان إجراء انتقال منظم للسلطة”.
وفي رده على سؤال حول عدم مغادرة الأسد لمنصبه قال إن “الأسد أخبرني أن الشعب السوري يريده، وما دام 50% من السكان يؤيدونه فهو سيبقى في السلطة، وعكس ذلك سيغادرها”، مضيفاً أن “الأسد حصل على 89% في الانتخابات الرئاسية، وهو ما يفضي إلى عدم الوصول إلى أي حل”.
وتابع الإبراهيمي أن “الأسد يعلم بالكثير من الأمور في سوريا، ربما لا يعرف التفاصيل الدقيقة، ولكنه يعلم بحالات التعذيب والقتل التي يتعرض لها المواطنون والمدن التي تدمر، كما لا يمكنه تجاهل عدد اللاجئين الذي تجاوز المليونين ونصف المليون، والذي يتوقع أن يصل إلى 4 ملايين في العام المقبل، ولا يمكنه غض طرفه عن 100 ألف شخص في السجون”.
ولفت الإبراهيمي إلى أن “الوفد السوري لم يأت إلى مؤتمر جنيف-2 لإجراء مفاوضات جدية، بل كرد عرفان لروسيا”، مبيناً أن “وفد المعارضة أراد حلاً عسكرياً بدل المفاوضات خلال المؤتمر، وأنه على الرغم من سوء التحضير فإنه كان مستعداً لإجراء مفاوضات”.
وأوضح الإبراهيمي أنه يتفق مع الأمين العام للأمم المتحدة بأن سوريا “لن تشهد حلاً عسكرياً، وأن أياً من الجانبين لن يحقق النصر”، مشيراً إلى أن “سوريا يمكن أن تتحول إلى صومال جديدة”.
summary:
1. best option for Syrians was for Assad to leave office in an orderly manner
2. regime went to Geneva only to please Russia, and opposition did not want a negotiated settlement but a military solution
3. neither side can end this war by achieving a decisive win
4. Assad knows a lot about the misery and the atrocities this war brought to Syrians even if he may not know the small details.
5. Assad believes that most Syrians want him to stay president
June 8th, 2014, 1:47 pm
ghufran said:
Except for Latakia and Tartous, most Syrian towns today do not have sunni and alawites (and Christians) living together in the same city. Rebels forced thousands of Syrians to flee for their lives because being an alawite or a Christian was a crime by itself in the mind of Islamists and most rebels even if they deny this fact, this is why you can not see an alawite living in any village or town controlled by rebels.
This situation will create enormous challenges for refugees who want to return but do not have the right last name and do not belong to the “right” sect.
«لا للعائدين… لا لمن سافر وترك البلاد وقت الشدة، ويريد أن يعود وقت الرخاء»، هذا ما كُتب على باب مستودع تجاري في حيّ القابون الدمشقي. تمتلئ جدران الحي بعبارات مماثلة ترفض عودة النازحين إلى منازلهم. فمنذ بداية الصراع المسلح فيه، خاض أهالي القابون نزاعاً في ما بينهم، بين من يرى أن الأولوية هي للنجاة مع عائلته من الموت، وبالتالي النزوح من الحي، ومن رأى أن «المقاومة» وحمل السلاح والبقاء في المنازل هي السبيل الوحيد «للصمود».
ومع اشتداد المعركة العسكرية، كان يزداد ميل التيار الأول للنزوح، في ما ترتفع نقمة التيار الثاني عليه لأنه يراه سبباً في تأجيل «النصر العسكري». يروي محمد الشطي، أحد النازحين من القابون بداية عام 2013: «لم يكن هناك من سبيل، النار بدأت تلتهم منزلنا حين أجبرنا على الرحيل. ورغم علمهم بأسباب النزوح، يرسل لي جيراني يومياً رسائل تفيد بأن اسمي أصبح على قائمة العار، التي أطلقوها على كل من ترك منزله». ويعقِّب الشطي: «حين سألتهم: كيف أبقى ومنزلي احترق؟ جاوبوني بحدة: ليست بحجة، كان بإمكانك أن تبقى ونصلح المنزل معاً».
في السياق نفسه، ذهب بعض أهالي المليحة (الغوطة الشرقية) أبعد من ذلك، حيث أحرقت عشرات المنازل التابعة لنازحين عن المدينة، أو لمنتمين إلى طوائف أخرى، بعد نهب محتوياتها. يروي حسن نظام، أحد اللاجئين إلى حيّ الأمين الدمشقي «بعد اكتشافهم لطائفتي، وضعني المقاتلون أمام خيارين، إما القتال معهم والمناوبة على الحواجز التابعة لهم، وإما القتل. وعدتهم بأني سأقاتل معهم، وناوبت مرتين على أحد الحواجز، ثم هربت مع عائلتي، بعد أن قام أحد الشباب بتهريبنا. يومها أدرج اسمي على قائمة المحكومين بالإعدام عندهم». وبالإضافة إلى القابون والمليحة، تبرز هذه الإشكالية في كل من دوما وجوبر وحرستا ومخيم اليرموك على نحو واضح.
إلى ذلك، كانت المشكلة حاضرة في كل المبادرات الساعية إلى إنجاز تسويات في تلك المناطق. في حرستا، على سبيل المثال، وضع المسلحون شروطهم لإنجاح المصالحة، ليشتمل الشرط الأول على رفض «عودة كل من هو غير حرستاني الأصل»، بما يشير إلى مدى تأزم الإشكال الطائفي في تلك المناطق، ما حدا أكثرية السكان المنتمين إلى مناطق وطوائف أخرى إلى نسيان إمكانية العودة إلى منازلهم. تلفت السيدة سماح ك.، النازحة من مخيم اليرموك إلى جرمانا: «كيف لي أن أعود إلى منزلي، وقد ظهر أن أكثر من نصف شباب الحارة منتمون إلى جبهة النصرة؟ حتى لو حدثت تسوية هناك، فما الذي يضمن عدم التعرض لي؟».
وضعني المقاتلون في حيّي أمام خيارين: القتال معهم أو القتل
هنا، يعود الحديث عن دور الدولة، ومهمتها في إيجاد حل لهذه المشكلة التي قد تعرقل عودة الآلاف من المدنيين إلى منازلهم، وخصوصاً في المناطق التي كانت تشهد تنوعاً ديموغرافياً واسعاً. وعن دور لجان المصالحة الوطنية في التخفيف من حدة الاحتقان، يؤكد عمار جزماتي، أحد أعضاء لجان المصالحة، أن «الدور الكبير في تلك العملية سيعود إلى الرموز المحلية المعروفة، التي من شأنها أن تمون على الطرفين، من أجل تلافي تفاقم الأزمة اجتماعياً. وتتعدد الرموز من مكان إلى آخر، ففي بعض المناطق يمكن المختار أن يؤدي هذا الدور، وفي بعضها الآخر تكون المهمة موكلة إلى رجال الدين المعتدلين والوطنيين».
some examples:
1. those who stayed may not want those who left to come back even if they were not alawites and Christians, they see refugees as deserters who made it harder for rebels to win (!!)
2. many non sunni Syrians who left do not trust their neighbors any more after discovering that those neighbors helped Nusra (and other rebel groups)or were engaged in acts of looting and violence
3. community leaders including moderate religious figures may be able to help build bridges to facilitate the process of refugees return and rebuilding.
4. In Harasta, rebels insisted that non Harastanis (ie non sunnis) are not allowed to return !!
5. homes belonging to minorities were looted and burnt and Syrians who refused to participate in rebels military activities were threatened to be executed, those who were lucky managed to run away but their names were put on a death list by rebels.
sectarian cleansing (SC) took place on one level or the other since late 2011 and early 2012 but it is not just rebels who are taking part in SC, opposition accuses the regime of facilitating that in areas like Homs, those accusations are not meritless.
only an idiot today will still be wondering why rebels failed to score a military win, the writing is not just on the wall, it is engraved in the Syrian psyche, there is no revolution today, the clean civil protest only lasted few weeks, after that the war started and both sides have committed war crimes.
June 8th, 2014, 2:13 pm
Uzair8 said:
The Prisoner @6number6 ·2h
#Syria rebels ignoring press, elections, pundit nonsense – just plowing ahead systematically deconstructing Assad’s military.
https://twitter.com/6number6/status/475709681487183872
June 8th, 2014, 4:24 pm
bob said:
how can he not talk about Arour ?
June 8th, 2014, 8:34 pm
Mina said:
Lakhdar Brahimi: Syrian opposition likely used chemical weapons
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/08/us-syria-crisis-envoy-idUSKBN0EJ0MT20140608
June 9th, 2014, 11:08 am
ghufran said:
Muhammad aldoumani (nick name) on aksaler:
أتمنى أن يطبق العفو وأن يخرج كل من في السجون من السوريين وأن يرجع كل سجين إلى أهله وعياله, والله كفانا دماً وقتلاً ودماراً, والله ما يحصل في سورية ليس لمصلحة أحد من السوريين. أسئل الله العظيم رب العرش العظيم أن تتم مصالحة شاملة في عموم سورية وأن تحقن الدماء لأنه وبصدق لا مستفيد من الوضع الحالي لا نظام ولا معارضة لا مستفيد إلا من يريد إضعاف البلد
وتمزيقه. لا بارك الله في نافخ في نار الفتنة كالوزع من المعارضة ومن الموالاة
Syrians are clearly tired of this war and want an end, they were failed by both the regime and the opposition, they were also failed by neighboring countries, the GCC and the West. Iran and Russia helped the regime and prevented the total collapse of the state but in return they made it easier for Assad to stay in power and be less receptive to ending this war through diplomacy.
The expected amnesty that was announced today must include all political prisoners for it to be meaningful, the fact that the government is more forgiving with ordinary criminals that prisoners of opinion is scandalous.
Moaz alkhatib on the other hand is reflecting on Assad’s “elections”:
شن رئيس «الائتلاف الوطني لقوى الثورة والمعارضة السورية» السابق معاذ الخطيب أمس هجوماً عنيفاً على المعارضة واصفاً إياها بـ«الغبية».
وفي صفحته الشخصية على موقع التواصل الاجتماعي «فيسبوك»، علق الخطيب على فوز الدكتور بشار الأسد بالانتخابات الرئاسية، قائلاً: إن الرئيس «بشار الأسد لم يطرح نفسه رئيساً لمدة ثالثة، لا بأجهزة أمنه.. ولا دعم أصدقائه، ولكن الذي قدمه إلى هذا الموقع هو معارضة لا تزال تلعق أحذية بعض الدول وتعيش بالأحلام، وتتهيب أن تخرج من صندوق غبائها المقفل».
وأضاف الخطيب: «كان يمكن بسهولة الاتفاق على مرشح تدعمه كل قوى المعارضة، وعنده برنامج وطني واضح، وتطلب مراقبة دولية للانتخابات داخل سورية وفي المخيمات والمهاجر»، معتبراً أنه «حينها لن يحصل بشار الأسد على أكثر من عشرة بالمئة على الأكثر».
وأكد أن الرئيس «بشار الأسد كان أذكى من المعارضة السياسية فلطالما قال لمن حوله: أراهن على ضعف المعارضة وغبائها في البقاء، وقد نجح»، نافياً ما تناقلته بعض الفضائيات عن مشاركته بحكومة انتقالية مع النظام.
Moaz is calling the opposition ” stupid” and suggesting that they failed because they are controlled by foreign powers, he also thought that the opposition should have demanded the inclusion of one of their candidates and having the elections supervised by the UN
June 9th, 2014, 11:50 am
Aboud Dandachi said:
John Oliver and Right Said Fred epically burn Assad in their adaption of “Im too sexy”. Shabihas can keep Ali Deeq, with this cheap songs that sound like something you would play in a Damascus kabarai filled with overweight prostitutes;
June 9th, 2014, 12:04 pm
Badr said:
To put it mildly, there is nothing at all from what “GHUFRAN” cut and pasted, and translated as allegedly written by Moaz al-Khatib on his Facebook page.
June 9th, 2014, 1:30 pm
ghufran said:
Again, this is from Moaz’ facebook page from an interview by Samir
Mitbanni:
1 – بداية شيخ معاذ، كما تعودنا، في كل مرة يصدر بيان عن معاذ الخطيب تبدأ حملة هجوم واتهامات وتخوين مكثف ضده، وتنسج السيناريوهات عن مؤامرات واتصالات وتنسيق وغرف سوداء ومبادرات استسلامية. هل من توضيح بهذا الخصوص؟
ج- المعارضة السياسية حتى الآن لم تصدر عنها رؤية واضحة لكيفية التعاطي مع ما يجري في بلدنا، كما أن بعض الإطلاقات في خطابها أدت إلى أنها خونت نفسها، واستخدمت خطاباً تحريضياً لكسب العامة، واستثمرت آلامهم، فأدى هذا إلى حالة تخوينية غير مسبوقة انعسكت على الجميع وزادت الأمور تعقيداً، ونحن ندفع ثمناً فادحاً لذلك كل لحظة.
2 – استوحى البعض من بيانك الأخير أنك ترغب بإعادة إحياء مبادرتكم السابقة حين كنت رئيسا للإئتلاف الوطني. ماذا تقولون في هذا السياق وهل هناك فعلا مبادرة من قبلكم للحل في سوريا؟
ج- أرغب بشيء واحد هو إيقاف ما يجري ولم تطرح أي مبادرة جديدة، والشيء الذي ننادي به هو مفاوضات مباشرة مع النظام لإيقاف سيل الدماء، وحل العديد من الإشكالات بعيداً عن ركود المجتمع الدولي، وقد كان في الخمسينيات لجان عسكرية سورية وكانت تجتمع مع ضباط يهود في طبرية لحل مشاكل المياه والري وانتقال المزارعين، ولم يقل أحد إنها خيانة، والتفاوض المباشر يحل العديد من الإشكالات رغم كل مكر النظام والتفافاته المعروفة.
3 – بصراحة، ما موقفك من ترشح بشار الاسد لولاية رئاسية ثالثة؟
ج- أنا من الداعين الى المقاطعة، وممن يسميها انتخابات الدم، وهذا رأي كثير من السوريين حتى ممن هم تحت يد السلطة.
4 – ما شكل الحل الذي يدور في ذهن معاذ الخطيب لإخراج البلاد من حالة الاستعصاء التي تعرقل كل حل تفاوضي؟
ج- قد يكون العمل السياسي أطول مساراً ولكنه أقل كلفة بكثير، وأعتقد أن التفاوض المباشر يحل الكثير من العقد السياسية، ونحن العرب أثّر فينا بعض الأدب بشكل سلبي، فصار من شعاراتنا:
ونحن أناس لا توسط بيننا لنا الصدر دون العالمين أو القبر
هذه العقلية يحملها النظام بتوحشه، وتحملها المعارضة بصلفها، والشعب هو الذي يدفع الثمن، وتجزئة المشاكل يسهم في حل أكثر الاشكالات صعوبة، وقد يكون الحل بحاجة إلى تدرجات، ولكن ضمن تفاهمات والتزامات، ولكن الأمر ليس بالسباب، وقد كنا نستمع الى معارضين يوحون انهم على ابواب القصر الجمهوري، وكأننا نحن الذين نوقفهم.
ما أريد قوله أنه لم تجر أية مفاوضات سياسية حقيقية للبحث عن حل ما، وهي إن قامت فلا تعيق الثورة، وقد تفشل، ولكنها إن نجحت فستوفر دماءً كثيرة، وقد تسألني عن جنيف، وأقول لك إن الطرفين ذهبا إليها بالضغط الدولي، وليس برضى أي منهما.
5 – لمّحت الى وقوف بعض الدول وشخصيات من المعارضة وراء عرقلة إيجاد حل ينقذ ما تبقى من سوريا، فما تلك الدول وتلك الشخصيات وما أهدافهم؟
ج- لن أذكر أسماء، وكل متابع لن تخفى عليه أسماء دول، ثم توابعها، والذي يجب الانتباه اليه أن بعض الدول تصفي حساباتها مع دول اخرى في بلادنا، وتحاول ايقاظ كل كوامن الصراع لاستمرار الوضع بما يخدم مخططاتها، وهذه الدول لا يهمها نجاح اي عملية تفاوضية لذا فهي تعرقلها، وتركز على التسليح نظرياً لتخرب اي مسار سياسي ( سينجح او يفشل ) وفي الحقيقة فانها تخرب من هنا ولا تقدم شيئا من هناك إلا (جَزَراً) إعلامياً يقوم بدور (كورتيزون سياسي) للمعارضة الحالمة بوعود الأصدقاء الكاذبين.
6 – (معاذ الخطيب. عارف دليلة. هيثم مناع. وليد البني. جمال سليمان) شخصيات معارضة اجتمعت مع وزير الخارجية المصري نبيل فهمي مؤخرا في القاهرة. ما الذي عرضه عليكم السيد نبيل فهمي؟ وحول ماذا تمحور الاجتماع؟
ج- اللقاء كان للحديث عن ضرورة سعي حاضنة عربية تتألف من السعودية وقطر ومصر بالإضافة إلى تركية لبحث صيغة توقف سيول الدماء في سورية، ورحبت الخارجية المصرية بذلك وقالت بصراحة إنها تؤيد أي حل ينقذ سورية مما تتجه إليه من زيادة القتل والدماء، وإنهم ليسوا طرفاً مع أحد ويرحبون بتوحد المعارضة، كما أن هناك أمراً مهما تم ذكره عرضاً في الصحافة، وهو موضوع الإخوة السوريين في مصر وما قد يعانونه، وجرى الحديث فيه بصراحة مع وزير الخارجية ووعد خيراً.
7 – هل سبق الاجتماع مع وزير الخارجية المصري تواصل وتنسيق بينكم انتم الخمسة، وهل هناك مشروع سياسي تحضرون له كما يتناقل البعض؟
ج- هذا أول اجتماع لي مع وزير الخارجية الحالي، وليس هناك مشروع سياسي مع أحد، ونتواصل مع كل أطراف المعارضة لتدارس الوضع السوري، وما ذكر عن تشكيل كيان سياسي جديد غير صحيح.
8 – ورد في بيانكم العبارة التالية: ما مفاده أن كل ما طرحتموه سابقاً يتجه الجميع اليه اليوم، وقد كان بالإمكان تجنب سقوط مئة وخمسين ألف شهيد وخراب أكثر من نصف سورية.. قد يفهم البعض أنه وكأنك تحمل المعارضة السياسية الجزء الاكبر مما وصلت اليه الأمور؟
ج- لا أحد يخفى عليه توحش النظام ودمويته ومسؤوليته الأولى عن دماء الشهداء، بل عن كل من سقط من السوريين، ولكن من غير المفهوم أن تكون بعض أطراف المعارضة تتمتع ببرودة غير مألوفة أمام ما يجري، وهي لم تحاول ولا مجرد محاولة تقديم حتى رؤية سياسية عملية للحل.
9 – ما القوى التي تعمل في الكواليس على مفاوضات مع النظام حسب معلوماتكم ولاسيما انه سُرب مؤخرا ما مفاده عن رغبة اسماء من المعارضة بالعودة الى سورية والقيام بحوار مباشر مع النظام، ما معلوماتكم حول ذلك.؟
ج- أعتقد أن كل الجهات قد اتخذت مواقفها، ولا يهمني من يبقى أو من يعود فهذا يعود إلى قناعات الناس، وكلا الأمرين لا يزكيان أحداً، ولا يخرجانه من وطنيته.
10 – نتكلم عن القوى المقاتلة على الأرض.
كما هو معروف ان اي مبادرة سياسية ما لم يكن وراءها دعم عسكري من القوى المقاتلة على الارض لن يكتب لها النجاح وتبقى حبرا على ورق.. السؤال هنا: هل من تجمع عسكري فاعل يدعم توجهكم في ايجاد حل (سوري – سوري)؟
ج- لدي شهود على أن بعض القادة العسكريين لآلاف المقاتلين قالوا لي بعد المبادرة الأولى: نحن مقتنعون بما تقول تماماً، وان أردت أصدرنا بيانات بذلك، ولكن سنبقى من دون خبز إن أيدناك، لأن بعض الداعمين يريدون إنهاء الامور بالصراع المسلح، والذي كما قلت يقتل أي حل سياسي، بينما الداعمون يعِدون ويكذبون.
نعم هناك جهات عسكرية تتفاعل وتؤيد ما أقول، وأعتذر عن تسميتها، وهناك قوى أخرى هائلة، وقد لا تظهر آثارها مباشرة، ولكنها أعمق القوى جذوراً، وهي الحواضن الشعبية، والتي في النهاية سيكون لها دور حاسم في أي توجه.
11- يتهمكم البعض بان لديكم قنوات تواصل مشتركة مع النظام السوري ” اي عبر وسطاء”. وإن كانت الإجابة نعم فما تلك القنوات؟ وكيف يرى النظام شكل الحل في سوريا؟
ج- لا يوجد لدي أي قنوات تواصل، ولست أخشى من اعلان ذلك إن وجد، وقد زارني العشرات من الأشخاص الذين قد يكونون قريبين من النظام بطريقة ما، وهذا شيء لا ادريه عن كل شخص اقابله، ولكن لم يحمل أحد إلي أي وساطة، وزياراتهم زيارات تمت بصفتهم الشخصية.
12- هل بقاء بشار الأسد على رأس السلطة الحاكمة أو حتى التمديد له “لفترة مؤقتة” مبدأ مقبول في المفاوضات بالنسبة لكم؟
ج- لا يمكن قبول بشار الاسد رأساً للسلطة، كما أن الحسم العسكري لإنهاء الامور ليس سهلاً، وقد يحصل بمدة قد تطول سنوات، وبعد دماء هائلة وزيادة في الخراب، لذا فالتفاوض السياسي هو أفضل الطرق، وفي ضوء تفاهمات واسعة يمكن تقدير قابلية الاستمرار او التمديد، ضمن ترتيب شامل من اجل التغيير وانهاء النظام، بأقل قدر من الدماء والخراب.
13- هل حقا لديكم مبادرة تطرحونها للحل في سوريا؟
ج- طرحت مبادرتين ويا للأسف! تعالى النظام والمعارضة عليهما، بينما لقيتا تأييداً شعبياً كبيراً، وليس لدي شيء مخبأ الأن، وإن وجد شيء قريباً فلن نخبئه عن أحد.
14- هل صحيح إن هناك فكرة باستلامكم رئاسة الحكومة ضمن تفاهمات مع النظام؟
ج- ليس لهذا الأمر أي أساس، ولم نبحث عن المناصب سابقاً، ولن نبحث عنها لاحقاً.
15- هناك تسريبات اليوم عن مبادرة ايرانية تبقي على الجيش بيد الطائفة العلوية ويمكن مشاركة جزء من الاجهزة الامنية مع المعارضة وتكون الحكومة للمعارضة ايضا بالمشاركة مع النظام.. ما موقفكم من هذه المبادرة وتلك التسريبات؟
ج- سمعت هذا من الصحف وغيرها، والامر اكثر تعقيداً من هذه التبسيطات، ولست ارى في هذا حلاً حقيقياً، بل ربما يكون نواة انفجارات مستقبلية، وعموماً: ما لا يصدر عن جهة رسمية وبمستوى عال فإما أن يكون اجتهاداً شخصياً، أو مجرد اختبار.
16- ما موضوع التشارك بين المعارضة والنظام الذي دعيت إليه؟
ج- قلت إنني أدعو كل السوريين ممن هم مع النظام أو ضده، ومع الثورة أو ضدها إلى صد أي مشروع لتقسيم سورية، وكما أفشل السوريون المشروع الاستعماري الفرنسي في العشرينيات لتقسيم سورية، فكذلك السوريون سيُفشلون اليوم أي مشروع مماثل ؛ لأن آثاره ستكون كارثية على الجميع ولعشرات السنين.
17- هل صحيح أنكم ذكرتم بأن أميركا وروسية لديهما رؤية لتقسيم سورية؟
ج- لم أقل ذلك، ولكن قلت إن الاهمال الدولي قد يؤدي الى تقسيم سورية، وقد التقيت خلال الشهر الماضي بالمفوض الروسي بوغدانوف، والمفوض الأميركي روبشتاين، وأكدا بشكل جازم أن حكومتيهما ليستا مع أي مشروع للتقسيم، وأعتقد أن الضمانة الأساسية هي تكاتف كل السوريين من الموالاة والمعارضة لصد أي مشروع من هذا النوع، وأثمّن ميثاق الشرف للجبهات الإسلامية الذي أكد على هذه النقطة.
18- ختاما: ما رسالتك للشعب السوري؟
ج- أعتقد أن سورية أكبر من الثورة وأكبر من النظام، وأنك يا شعبنا العظيم بتكاتفك ستعود أقوى مما كنت.
رسالتك للقوى المقاتلة على الأرض؟
– قمتم لله ولإنقاذ شعبكم من الظلم، ولم يسبقكم أحد في البطولة والاستشهاد، فأبقوا عملكم لله.
– لقوى الثورة والمعارضة السياسية؟
– التفِتوا الى الشعب قليلاً، فأخشى أن يصبح أمامكم بكثير وعياً ووطنيةً وخُلقاً.
Photo: أجرى المقابلة الإعلامي الأستاذ سمير متيني 1 – بداية شيخ معاذ، كما تعودنا، في كل مرة يصدر بيان عن معاذ الخطيب تبدأ حملة هجوم واتهامات وتخوين مكثف ضده، وتنسج السيناريوهات عن مؤامرات واتصالات وتنسيق وغرف سوداء ومبادرات استسلامية. هل من توضيح بهذا الخصوص؟ ج- المعارضة السياسية حتى الآن لم تصدر عنها رؤية واضحة لكيفية التعاطي مع ما يجري في بلدنا، كما أن بعض الإطلاقات في خطابها أدت إلى أنها خونت نفسها، واستخدمت خطاباً تحريضياً لكسب العامة، واستثمرت آلامهم، فأدى هذا إلى حالة تخوينية غير مسبوقة انعسكت على الجميع وزادت الأمور تعقيداً، ونحن ندفع ثمناً فادحاً لذلك كل لحظة. 2 – استوحى البعض من بيانك الأخير أنك ترغب بإعادة إحياء مبادرتكم السابقة حين كنت رئيسا للإئتلاف الوطني. ماذا تقولون في هذا السياق وهل هناك فعلا مبادرة من قبلكم للحل في سوريا؟ ج- أرغب بشيء واحد هو إيقاف ما يجري ولم تطرح أي مبادرة جديدة، والشيء الذي ننادي به هو مفاوضات مباشرة مع النظام لإيقاف سيل الدماء، وحل العديد من الإشكالات بعيداً عن ركود المجتمع الدولي، وقد كان في الخمسينيات لجان عسكرية سورية وكانت تجتمع مع ضباط يهود في طبرية لحل مشاكل المياه والري وانتقال المزارعين، ولم يقل أحد إنها خيانة، والتفاوض المباشر يحل العديد من الإشكالات رغم كل مكر النظام والتفافاته المعروفة. 3 – بصراحة، ما موقفك من ترشح بشار الاسد لولاية رئاسية ثالثة؟ ج- أنا من الداعين الى المقاطعة، وممن يسميها انتخابات الدم، وهذا رأي كثير من السوريين حتى ممن هم تحت يد السلطة. 4 – ما شكل الحل الذي يدور في ذهن معاذ الخطيب لإخراج البلاد من حالة الاستعصاء التي تعرقل كل حل تفاوضي؟ ج- قد يكون العمل السياسي أطول مساراً ولكنه أقل كلفة بكثير، وأعتقد أن التفاوض المباشر يحل الكثير من العقد السياسية، ونحن العرب أثّر فينا بعض الأدب بشكل سلبي، فصار من شعاراتنا: ونحن أناس لا توسط بيننا لنا الصدر دون العالمين أو القبر هذه العقلية يحملها النظام بتوحشه، وتحملها المعارضة بصلفها، والشعب هو الذي يدفع الثمن، وتجزئة المشاكل يسهم في حل أكثر الاشكالات صعوبة، وقد يكون الحل بحاجة إلى تدرجات، ولكن ضمن تفاهمات والتزامات، ولكن الأمر ليس بالسباب، وقد كنا نستمع الى معارضين يوحون انهم على ابواب القصر الجمهوري، وكأننا نحن الذين نوقفهم. ما أريد قوله أنه لم تجر أية مفاوضات سياسية حقيقية للبحث عن حل ما، وهي إن قامت فلا تعيق الثورة، وقد تفشل، ولكنها إن نجحت فستوفر دماءً كثيرة، وقد تسألني عن جنيف، وأقول لك إن الطرفين ذهبا إليها بالضغط الدولي، وليس برضى أي منهما. 5 – لمّحت الى وقوف بعض الدول وشخصيات من المعارضة وراء عرقلة إيجاد حل ينقذ ما تبقى من سوريا، فما تلك الدول وتلك الشخصيات وما أهدافهم؟ ج- لن أذكر أسماء، وكل متابع لن تخفى عليه أسماء دول، ثم توابعها، والذي يجب الانتباه اليه أن بعض الدول تصفي حساباتها مع دول اخرى في بلادنا، وتحاول ايقاظ كل كوامن الصراع لاستمرار الوضع بما يخدم مخططاتها، وهذه الدول لا يهمها نجاح اي عملية تفاوضية لذا فهي تعرقلها، وتركز على التسليح نظرياً لتخرب اي مسار سياسي ( سينجح او يفشل ) وفي الحقيقة فانها تخرب من هنا ولا تقدم شيئا من هناك إلا (جَزَراً) إعلامياً يقوم بدور (كورتيزون سياسي) للمعارضة الحالمة بوعود الأصدقاء الكاذبين. 6 – (معاذ الخطيب. عارف دليلة. هيثم مناع. وليد البني. جمال سليمان) شخصيات معارضة اجتمعت مع وزير الخارجية المصري نبيل فهمي مؤخرا في القاهرة. ما الذي عرضه عليكم السيد نبيل فهمي؟ وحول ماذا تمحور الاجتماع؟ ج- اللقاء كان للحديث عن ضرورة سعي حاضنة عربية تتألف من السعودية وقطر ومصر بالإضافة إلى تركية لبحث صيغة توقف سيول الدماء في سورية، ورحبت الخارجية المصرية بذلك وقالت بصراحة إنها تؤيد أي حل ينقذ سورية مما تتجه إليه من زيادة القتل والدماء، وإنهم ليسوا طرفاً مع أحد ويرحبون بتوحد المعارضة، كما أن هناك أمراً مهما تم ذكره عرضاً في الصحافة، وهو موضوع الإخوة السوريين في مصر وما قد يعانونه، وجرى الحديث فيه بصراحة مع وزير الخارجية ووعد خيراً. 7 – هل سبق الاجتماع مع وزير الخارجية المصري تواصل وتنسيق بينكم انتم الخمسة، وهل هناك مشروع سياسي تحضرون له كما يتناقل البعض؟ ج- هذا أول اجتماع لي مع وزير الخارجية الحالي، وليس هناك مشروع سياسي مع أحد، ونتواصل مع كل أطراف المعارضة لتدارس الوضع السوري، وما ذكر عن تشكيل كيان سياسي جديد غير صحيح. 8 – ورد في بيانكم العبارة التالية: ما مفاده أن كل ما طرحتموه سابقاً يتجه الجميع اليه اليوم، وقد كان بالإمكان تجنب سقوط مئة وخمسين ألف شهيد وخراب أكثر من نصف سورية.. قد يفهم البعض أنه وكأنك تحمل المعارضة السياسية الجزء الاكبر مما وصلت اليه الأمور؟ ج- لا أحد يخفى عليه توحش النظام ودمويته ومسؤوليته الأولى عن دماء الشهداء، بل عن كل من سقط من السوريين، ولكن من غير المفهوم أن تكون بعض أطراف المعارضة تتمتع ببرودة غير مألوفة أمام ما يجري، وهي لم تحاول ولا مجرد محاولة تقديم حتى رؤية سياسية عملية للحل. 9 – ما القوى التي تعمل في الكواليس على مفاوضات مع النظام حسب معلوماتكم ولاسيما انه سُرب مؤخرا ما مفاده عن رغبة اسماء من المعارضة بالعودة الى سورية والقيام بحوار مباشر مع النظام، ما معلوماتكم حول ذلك.؟ ج- أعتقد أن كل الجهات قد اتخذت مواقفها، ولا يهمني من يبقى أو من يعود فهذا يعود إلى قناعات الناس، وكلا الأمرين لا يزكيان أحداً، ولا يخرجانه من وطنيته. 10 – نتكلم عن القوى المقاتلة على الأرض. كما هو معروف ان اي مبادرة سياسية ما لم يكن وراءها دعم عسكري من القوى المقاتلة على الارض لن يكتب لها النجاح وتبقى حبرا على ورق.. السؤال هنا: هل من تجمع عسكري فاعل يدعم توجهكم في ايجاد حل (سوري – سوري)؟ ج- لدي شهود على أن بعض القادة العسكريين لآلاف المقاتلين قالوا لي بعد المبادرة الأولى: نحن مقتنعون بما تقول تماماً، وان أردت أصدرنا بيانات بذلك، ولكن سنبقى من دون خبز إن أيدناك، لأن بعض الداعمين يريدون إنهاء الامور بالصراع المسلح، والذي كما قلت يقتل أي حل سياسي، بينما الداعمون يعِدون ويكذبون. نعم هناك جهات عسكرية تتفاعل وتؤيد ما أقول، وأعتذر عن تسميتها، وهناك قوى أخرى هائلة، وقد لا تظهر آثارها مباشرة، ولكنها أعمق القوى جذوراً، وهي الحواضن الشعبية، والتي في النهاية سيكون لها دور حاسم في أي توجه. 11- يتهمكم البعض بان لديكم قنوات تواصل مشتركة مع النظام السوري ” اي عبر وسطاء”. وإن كانت الإجابة نعم فما تلك القنوات؟ وكيف يرى النظام شكل الحل في سوريا؟ ج- لا يوجد لدي أي قنوات تواصل، ولست أخشى من اعلان ذلك إن وجد، وقد زارني العشرات من الأشخاص الذين قد يكونون قريبين من النظام بطريقة ما، وهذا شيء لا ادريه عن كل شخص اقابله، ولكن لم يحمل أحد إلي أي وساطة، وزياراتهم زيارات تمت بصفتهم الشخصية. 12- هل بقاء بشار الأسد على رأس السلطة الحاكمة أو حتى التمديد له “لفترة مؤقتة” مبدأ مقبول في المفاوضات بالنسبة لكم؟ ج- لا يمكن قبول بشار الاسد رأساً للسلطة، كما أن الحسم العسكري لإنهاء الامور ليس سهلاً، وقد يحصل بمدة قد تطول سنوات، وبعد دماء هائلة وزيادة في الخراب، لذا فالتفاوض السياسي هو أفضل الطرق، وفي ضوء تفاهمات واسعة يمكن تقدير قابلية الاستمرار او التمديد، ضمن ترتيب شامل من اجل التغيير وانهاء النظام، بأقل قدر من الدماء والخراب. 13- هل حقا لديكم مبادرة تطرحونها للحل في سوريا؟ ج- طرحت مبادرتين ويا للأسف! تعالى النظام والمعارضة عليهما، بينما لقيتا تأييداً شعبياً كبيراً، وليس لدي شيء مخبأ الأن، وإن وجد شيء قريباً فلن نخبئه عن أحد. 14- هل صحيح إن هناك فكرة باستلامكم رئاسة الحكومة ضمن تفاهمات مع النظام؟ ج- ليس لهذا الأمر أي أساس، ولم نبحث عن المناصب سابقاً، ولن نبحث عنها لاحقاً. 15- هناك تسريبات اليوم عن مبادرة ايرانية تبقي على الجيش بيد الطائفة العلوية ويمكن مشاركة جزء من الاجهزة الامنية مع المعارضة وتكون الحكومة للمعارضة ايضا بالمشاركة مع النظام.. ما موقفكم من هذه المبادرة وتلك التسريبات؟ ج- سمعت هذا من الصحف وغيرها، والامر اكثر تعقيداً من هذه التبسيطات، ولست ارى في هذا حلاً حقيقياً، بل ربما يكون نواة انفجارات مستقبلية، وعموماً: ما لا يصدر عن جهة رسمية وبمستوى عال فإما أن يكون اجتهاداً شخصياً، أو مجرد اختبار. 16- ما موضوع التشارك بين المعارضة والنظام الذي دعيت إليه؟ ج- قلت إنني أدعو كل السوريين ممن هم مع النظام أو ضده، ومع الثورة أو ضدها إلى صد أي مشروع لتقسيم سورية، وكما أفشل السوريون المشروع الاستعماري الفرنسي في العشرينيات لتقسيم سورية، فكذلك السوريون سيُفشلون اليوم أي مشروع مماثل ؛ لأن آثاره ستكون كارثية على الجميع ولعشرات السنين. 17- هل صحيح أنكم ذكرتم بأن أميركا وروسية لديهما رؤية لتقسيم سورية؟ ج- لم أقل ذلك، ولكن قلت إن الاهمال الدولي قد يؤدي الى تقسيم سورية، وقد التقيت خلال الشهر الماضي بالمفوض الروسي بوغدانوف، والمفوض الأميركي روبشتاين، وأكدا بشكل جازم أن حكومتيهما ليستا مع أي مشروع للتقسيم، وأعتقد أن الضمانة الأساسية هي تكاتف كل السوريين من الموالاة والمعارضة لصد أي مشروع من هذا النوع، وأثمّن ميثاق الشرف للجبهات الإسلامية الذي أكد على هذه النقطة. 18- ختاما: ما رسالتك للشعب السوري؟ ج- أعتقد أن سورية أكبر من الثورة وأكبر من النظام، وأنك يا شعبنا العظيم بتكاتفك ستعود أقوى مما كنت. رسالتك للقوى المقاتلة على الأرض؟ – قمتم لله ولإنقاذ شعبكم من الظلم، ولم يسبقكم أحد في البطولة والاستشهاد، فأبقوا عملكم لله. – لقوى الثورة والمعارضة السياسية؟ – التفِتوا الى الشعب قليلاً، فأخشى أن يصبح أمامكم بكثير وعياً ووطنيةً وخُلقاً.
Moaz’ message has been clear and consistent, he never liked the MB or the NC and he always believed that Syrians must talk to each other to end this war instead of relying on the GCC and the West to get rid of the regime. Those of you who do not like his ideas need to come up with a better approach to end this dirty war. Most of what is on this forum now is a one sided look at events, Syria did not get to where it is today because of the actions of one party or one armed militia, this is a national disaster and a crime with many participants.
June 9th, 2014, 6:21 pm
ALAN said:
The main reason behind deadly infighting between is that they have been spying on each other for a long time, and they have lost their trust. ISIL entered Syria’s war to fight for al-Qaeda, but it was later replaced with al-Nusra Front by al-Qaeda’s leader Aymen Zawahiri.
ISIL and al-Nusra share same radical beliefs and are both known for
their brutal crimes against Syrian people and soldiers throughout their extremist war on Syria.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=56c_1402332172
June 9th, 2014, 7:23 pm
Ghufran said:
Sorry for the long post, I tried to trim it to get the main points but my time was up. Moaz has plenty of support among Damascenes unlike what some thawrajiyyeh say. I do not endorse all of his ideas but he clearly has a cool head and I personally have no problem with his likes assuming key positions in a future government. There is a definite need for a new approach to end this war.
June 9th, 2014, 8:28 pm
Ghufran said:
Rebel source tells aksalser that Aleppo is about to be surrounded by Syrian army:
أرسل أبو عماد الشامي الناشط الميداني و الإعلامي العامل مع كتائب أبو عمارة لعكس السير شرحاً مفصلاً للمعارك التي دارت في محيط مدينة حلب خلال الأشهر الأخيرة، والتي من الممكن أن تؤدي في الأيام القليلة القادمة إلى حصار حلب بشكل كامل.
وقال الشامي إن النظام تمكن خلال الأشهر الأخيرة من قلب الموازين العسكرية لصالحه وخرج من الحصار الذي تمكن الثوار من فرضه عليه سابقاً حتى أصبح قريبا من محاصرة مدينة حلب.
ولتحقيق ذلك اعتمد النظام سياسة الأرض المحروقة بالاضافة الى عامل غليان الثوار في الايام الاولى فقط عند سقوط اي مدينة او موقع ثم برودهم بعد أيام وكأن شيئاً لم يكن ,واتبع ايضاً سياسة التقدم ببطء وحذر من عدة اطراف حيث تقدم من الريف الجنوبي بالسيطرة على خناصر وابو جرين والسفيرة.
2 كم تفصل النظام عن حصار مدينة حلب بالكامل
ومن طرف المطار الدولي تقدم وسيطر على النقارين واللواء 80 وحي كرم القصر ثم حول هجومه الى المنطقة الشرقية ونجح بالسيطرة على اجزاء من المدينة الصناعية في الشيخ نجار وسيطر على قرية حيلان والبريج وصولاً الى سجن حلب المركزي.
ولم يكتف النظام بمحاولة حصار حلب مكرراً سيناريو حمص والغوطة بل يعمل أيضاً على فتح طريق (حلب _ دمشق) الرئيسي عندما عاود هجومه في الريف الجنوبي وقام بالسيطرة على عدة نقاط منها قرى حدادين ومزارع حدادين ومداجن عزان والقليعة وجبل الرسم ورسم بكر بالاضافة إلى قرية الجديدة وحقق تقدم على عدة محاور لجبل عزان والوضيحي.
فيما تبقّى حوالي 2 كيلو متر لقوات النظام كي تتقدم الى مشفى الكندي وترصد طريق الجندول وبذلك تطبق الحصار على مدينة حلب تماماً.
It seems like the plan is to try to force rebels and jihadists to stay in Raqqa and Dayr Azzour. The world will recognize those areas as occupied territories dominated by terrorist groups (nusra and Isis ) who will continue to fight over oil fields and then establish an Islamist state which will be seen by regional and western governments as the Syrian version of talibani Afghanistan with no presence for any ” moderate” rebel group. If Aleppo falls, Idleb and north Latakia turkmani region will follow and the case for an armed struggle against the army will collapse politically and militarily.
June 9th, 2014, 10:44 pm
Uzair8 said:
Forgive me for attempting to puncture the regimist dreams, hopes and confidence reflected in the narrative they are pushing regarding claims Assad will win back territory including major cities and towns like Aleppo, Idlib etc.
Firstly let me say I don’t believe Assad will regain territory as claimed (he hasn’t the forces) however let’s just go along with this idea.
At the moment we are in the ‘territorial phase’ in the conflict where both sides hold and control territory and are directly competing over territory. Something the Assad forces would be much more suited and designed for.
If Assad was to regain much more territory, even the majority of it, this wouldn’t be the end of it as regimists are hoping or trying to get everyone to subconsciously accept (psy ops).
It will get worse for the Assad side. We will then enter the ‘Guerilla warfare phase’ for which the rebels will be much more suited and will be in their element. A phase in which the rebels will have the edge and the advantage. They will be hard to pin down as they blend into the population and countryside.
Guerilla war is usually more costly in terms of men and Assad is already short in this regard. Fully stretched over the now greater territory Assad forces will be sitting ducks for Guerilla attacks.
What will happen is that Assad will not be able to sustain such losses and hold the territory thus losing much of it again. Then we will return to the ‘territorial phase’ again.
I was gonna write this a few days ago. Aboud has said as much in a tweet in response to Prof Landis tweeting that the regime is 2km away from completely besieging Aleppo.
Aboud Dandachi @AboudDandachi ·34m
@joshua_landis then let it fall already and enough with this open warfare crap which the brigades are obviously not cut out for
June 10th, 2014, 12:08 pm
Uzair8 said:
Also related to my previous post…
Firstly let me state I despise ISIS.
You may have heard how ISIS have captured Mosul in Iraq and are capturing more territory as I write. This is not something I support or welcome.
Somebody wrote an interesting tweet earlier stating that Iraqi Militias and fighters in Syria will now have to ask themselves 2 questions:
1- Do they continue to fight to protect Assad, or,
2- Do they return to Iraq and protect their families.
June 10th, 2014, 12:14 pm
Uzair8 said:
The regime/Iran are banking on the region and the world accepting defeat if and when Assad reclaims significant territory. They’re hoping the world accepts the ‘fait accompli’ as one regime official put it. Hezbo leader is claiming the elections mean Assad is here to stay and the world must accept it. It all fits into their strategy or hope.
They’re hoping that once this is achieved then the rebellion will fizzle out without the moral/rhetorical outside support and encouragement.
I don’t think the regime/Iran/Hezbo fancy the prospect of fighting a protracted and costly guerilla war…
I think they’re a bit desperate in hoping to force the world to give in due to the ‘new facts on the ground’ (so-called election result and potential capture of significant territory).
June 10th, 2014, 12:28 pm
ALAN said:
The quiet strategy of the sorcerer Obama !
‘A threat to the whole Middle East’: Warning as terrorists overrun Iraq’s second city Mosul – seen as gateway to Syria – and set hundreds of prisoners free
Captured by Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – an offshoot of al Qaeda
Followed four days of fierce fighting in Mosul and other cities and towns
Fall of Mosul deals serious blow to Baghdad’s efforts to fight Sunni militants
Iraq’s prime minister has asked parliament to declare a state of emergency
Islamic militants overran parts of Iraq’s second-largest city of Mosul today, driving security forces from their posts and seizing the provincial government headquarters, security bases and other key buildings.
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki pressed parliament to declare a state of emergency.
The fight for Mosul was a heavy defeat in Baghdad’s battle against a widening insurgency by a breakaway al-Qaida group, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, which has been trying – with some success – to seize territory both in Iraq and neighboring Syria.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2653948/Hundreds-armed-Islamist-militants-control-Iraqs-second-largest-city-Mosul.html
The ISIS rebels in Iraq are bad, the ISIS rebels in Syria are good.
http://www.businessinsider.com/isis-captures-mosul-2014-6
June 10th, 2014, 2:18 pm
ghufran said:
ISIS took over Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul and is trying to occupy more cities to get closer to their dream of connecting Syria and Iraq in one state that copies Taliban in Afghanistan.
The area occupied by ISIS in both countries will soon be considered a legitimate target for drone attacks and other military operations by both national forces and foreign military also.
There is no better evidence of how miserable and backward this Ummah is when people of the regions have to choose between corrupt dictatorships and islamist terrorists. One terrifying fact is that many Muslims in the regions, some are educated and others have a lot of money, are actively supporting Nusra and ISIS. An american friend who occasionally read my posts, and other posts, on this forum asked me whether I really believe that Muslims have what it takes to build modern states instead of going back to the Middle ages.
June 10th, 2014, 2:41 pm
Ghufran said:
Iraq is quickly descending into an afghani type situation where the central government is unable to govern and parts of the country will become defacto independent states. Kurds will undoubtedly use the latest attack of Isis to move ahead with their plan to leave Iraq federation to protect Kurds and shield their areas from a potential civil war between Shia and Sunnis. Isis has enough support in Iraq to occupy large swath of territories, this support does not only come from Islamists but also from a number of tribes and many saddamists who prefer Isis over Maliki. This unfortunate situation was only possible after the invasion of Iraq and Iran’s meddling in Iraq’s affairs. Syria will have a similar fate if Syrians fail to end the war and establish a unity government that is not dominated by Iran or the GCC. What stopped Syria from a total collapse is the relative cohesion and strength of the Syrian army, this advantage does not exist in Iraq where a number of commandors and high ranking officials abandoned their posts and delivered parts of Iraq to Isis.
June 10th, 2014, 4:40 pm
Syrialover said:
Well done Mullah puppet Maliki, well done! Iraq’s really up in flames now.
Will Tehran redirect its militias from Syria to rescuing Mosul?
June 10th, 2014, 5:54 pm
Syrialover said:
1. What cartoonists think of Assad’s “election”
http://freearabs.com/index.php/politics/69-stories/1430-jb-span-syria-jb-span-between-tragic-and-absurd#.U5ZAI5lSWDE.twitter
2. And if you want a deep belly laugh see this brilliant send up of Bashar by a British comedian (it’s the video posted by Dandachi above but with explanation)
http://theweek.com/speedreads/index/262844/speedreads-john-oliver-burns-syrias-bashar-al-assad-in-the-most-humiliating-way-imaginable#axzz34H4yen2Y
June 10th, 2014, 6:23 pm
Ghufran said:
Muhammad Kraishan does not believe the pardon issued by Assad will mean anything, the one who issued the pardon needs a pardon himself and the rebels who may be released do not deserve it according to Kraishan:
عفو لو جاء قبل أن تتدحرج سوريا إلى هذا المستنقع لاعتبر حدثا بارزا يمهد الطريق نحو تسوية كبرى متفق عليها بين النظام والمقاتلين ضده، أما الآن فهو يكاد لا يعني شيئا ليس فقط لأن الوضع في البلد تجاوز خطوات من هذا القبيل، بل كذلك لأن لا أحد يعلم على وجه اليقين ما الذي حصل في مبادرات «العفو» التي أصدرها بشار في مناسبات سابقة في ايار/مايو وحزيران/يونيو 2011 وكانون الثاني/يناير 2012 ونيسان/أبريل 2013 وما إذا كان أفرج عن أحد أصلا. كما أنه ولاعتبارات أخلاقية صرفة، قبل أي اعتبار آخر، ليس الأسد هو المؤهل للعفو عن أي كان لأنه مدان قبل غيره لما وصلت إليه الأمور وبالتالي فهم من يحتاج لمن يعفو عن كل جرائمه في حق البلد، بدءا بإطلاق النار على المتظاهرين السلميين وصولا إلى القصف بالبراميل المتفجرة مرورا باستعمال الكيمياوي وكل أنواع الإذلال والتعذيب، لا سيما وأنه، وهو من هو في منصبه، يفترض أن يكون حامي البلاد وأبناءها.
من جهة أخرى، الكثير من المعارضين المسلحين، لا سيما تلك المنظمات المتناسلة يوميا، ليسوا أهلا للعفو عنهم فقد أدخلوا البلاد في دوامة عبثية مرعبة بعد أن استولوا على الثروة من أهلها وأبعدوها عن شعارات الحرية والكرامة وأدخلوها في متاهات لا أول لها ولا آخر وجلبوا المزيد من الدمار لمن يفترض أنهم جاؤوا لنجدتهم . لقد أمعنوا في ممارسات موغلة في التخلف والتطرف فباتوا الوجه الآخر لمحنة الناس مع نظام الأسد، متحكمين في رقاب الأهالي وضمائرهم أينما حلوا فكانوا أشبه بالذباب الذي زاد الجرح المفتوح تعفنا.
ومهما يكن من أمر فإنه لا مجال لإغفال العنصر الخارجي في الأزمة السورية فقد هرعت دول وأطراف مختلفة في شد أزر النظام أو مخالفيه. وبغض النظر عن الاختلاف بين صوابية من يهب لنجدة الظالم ومن يهب لنجدة المظلوم، إلا أن النتيجة النهائية أن مأساة السوريين زادت بفعل هؤلاء وأولئك. لا الأولون كانوا قادرين على حسم الأمور نهائيا لمصلحة الأسد ولا غيرهم كان قادرا على تغليب كفة المعارضين له رغم كثرة الوعود التي اتضح أن أغلبها عاجز أو كاذب أو مضلل.
لا أحد غير الشعب السوري في اليوم الذي يقرر فيه مصيره بكل حرية دون وصاية من أحد، لا من نظام أهانه وقتله وشرده ولا من جزء من معارضة أغرقته في الوحل عوض نجدته… لا أحد غير هذا الشعب يقرر متى يعفو وعلى من. في انتظار ذلك، ها هو يقول للجميع في الداخل والخارج: منكم لله!
Kraishan believes that both the regime, the rebels and those who supported each party have participated in destroying Syria.
Back to Mosul, a city of 2 million, mostly Sunnis. Mosul is now the Iraqi version of Aleppo
June 10th, 2014, 9:34 pm
apple_mini said:
This amnesty is closely watched by many people. We are hoping several people we know would get released.
Even Aleppo can be wrested back soon, the war is still far from over. Reconstruction will be under way in large scale. But what about reconciliation?
The regime has been weakened to the point that “business as usual” will no longer be possible.
There will be more questions to ask about political challenges facing the country after more military advances and feats. The irony is that the regime will have to deal with more thorny and dangerous crisis when there is not much of fighting raging the country.
June 10th, 2014, 9:47 pm
Ghufran said:
Well said mini.
I am afraid that there is no easy answer regardless of how the war goes. It is almost certain that aljazeera region will be ignored for months or years to come, it is not seen as vital to the survival of the regime or even the state, I suspect that the area from Mosul, Iraq to raqqa ,syria will become similar to the wasteland in Pakistan and Afghanistan where tribes and alqaida groups dominate but may still continue to fight over oil and money. This area may also become a target for national, regional and international military attacks in the name of fighting terrorism.
A win by Assad means that he will be less likely to compromise and a win by the rebels, unlikely now, means more blood shed and more chaos. For 44 years the regime told Syrians that they have to choose between security and freedom and many Syrians accepted this in the past and many today who supported the rebels are changing their mind after trying war for more than 3 years.
June 10th, 2014, 11:01 pm
ALAN said:
Syria, whose President has been returned to power with a resounding majority vote, will ask its allies to participate in the war on terror, nestled in the east and north Syria
The US, Israel and their allies actually Does not provide an effort to punish the Syrian people collectively through policies of evil rotten in their heads.
June 11th, 2014, 4:22 am
ALAN said:
Complete failure of U.S. policy to impose Western democracy there, where it is not acceptable. If Iraq is split, and Sunnis receive their own enclave, will be dealt a heavy blow to U.S. policy in Ukraine, where the South East also seeks federalization or withdrawal from the Ukrainian state.
Catastrophe in Iraq divert Washington’s attention from Ukraine,
given the huge role this powerful Arab state, which has the second world oil reserves, and located at the intersection zone between Shiites and Sunnis.
After all, would threaten the security of the entire Persian Gulf. And this region – 65% of the world’s oil.
There can be no Ukraine, if the stability of oil supplies to the West is questionable.
Come soon, given the rapid advance of Sunni militants in the south and south-west of Iraq
Kou kou Ricou
June 11th, 2014, 5:01 am
ALAN said:
There is an information leakage about an urgent transfer of the armies preparing by Washington from Afghanistan and Kuwait to help al-Maliki’s collapsing army.
The Iraqi prime minister already asked for the military help from Washington. Otherwise in 2-3 days there can come a situation when not to be able to suppress Sunni revolt any more.
So – country disintegration on three parts: Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish. Thus Americans need to remember that ISIS which originally was at war in Syria, is the protege of Qatar and Saudi Arabia who aren’t able to afford formation of a Shiite arch as a part of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon under Hizballah control. Otherwise KSA where oil-extracting East province itself is occupied by Shiites will collapse.
Generally, games of politics of Washington “minds” put the Middle East on an accident side.
While on the horizon creation of the radical Islamic Sunni state in the heart of the Middle East region to which, besides the Sunni provinces of Iraq, can enter and some east Sunni provinces of Syria round of Raqa, being under control of the same ISIS and Al-Qaeda appears.
June 11th, 2014, 12:11 pm
ALAN said:
Be accurate! here our area of domination!
http://youtu.be/dd12q_7AE8E?t=1s
***
http://professorsblogg.com/2014/06/11/what-the-ukraine-crisis-is-all-about-u-s-b-2-stealth-strategic-bombers-now-landing-in-europe/
June 11th, 2014, 5:56 pm
annie said:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-former-un-peace-envoy-to-syria-lakhdar-brahimi-a-974036.html
Interview with UN Peace Envoy Brahimi: ‘Syria Will Become Another Somalia’
June 12th, 2014, 1:55 am
ALAN said:
ISIS in Iraq and Syria: Shame on Obama while Hezbollah Helps the Mosaic
http://www.moderntokyotimes.com/2014/06/11/isis-in-iraq-and-syria-shame-on-obama-while-hezbollah-helps-the-mosaic/
*MY COMMENT IS AWAITING MODERATION. Why ????
June 12th, 2014, 1:59 am
Akbar Palace said:
Well done Mullah puppet Maliki, well done! Iraq’s really up in flames now.
Will Tehran redirect its militias from Syria to rescuing Mosul?
Syrialover,
Iraq had an opportunity and it failed. Why couldn’t Iraq protect herself with all the money and lives spent? Why couldn’t they reach out to the sunni community? The ME is now in the throes of an all-out sunni-shia war.
Unbelievable. On another website, I was just told by a KSA supporter that Saddam was fine and the US should have kept him in power to hold off the Iranians.
It doesn’t stop, does it?
June 12th, 2014, 8:20 am
Observer said:
This is the World page of the NYT today
http://www.nytimes.com/pages/world/index.html?module=HPMiniNav&contentCollection=World&pgtype=Homepage®ion=TopBar&action=click&t=qry497
It is all about Iraq. In the second article, there is a military commander that apparently received an order from Baghdad to abandon his post. In some areas the soldiers just handed their weapons and uniforms to ISIS without a fight. In others they just melted away.
I do no have any clue as to what is happening: is this an effort to gut the nascent Iraqi army and rely on militias only as Maliki is asking for “volunteers” to protect the shrines? Is this an attempt by the Shia in the region to show that they and only they can fight Sunni extremists and therefore worthy of an alliance with the terrified West? Is this an attempt to draw back the US into the fray and have it negotiating with Iran on the various parts of the ME where it has influence? Russia is furious that the US has “abandoned” its role and is extremely worried that ISIS now controls oil and oil fields and has a steady source of income. If the ISIS average fighter is paid three times what a Free Syrian Army fighter is paid, where is the money coming from?
SANA is saying that the regime is full solidarity with Iraq. Does this mean that it will ally itself now with the moderates in the opposition to fight ISIS as some on this post keep saying? Their wish is that the moderate opposition will join the regime and then accepts it and allows it to stay in power indefinitely of course something that is now impossible.
This is a regional Sunni Shia civil war now. Not even the Sunni leaders of the GCC can ride this tiger and Iran is in for a very very difficult time ahead.
June 12th, 2014, 8:29 am
Amir in Tel Aviv said:
IDF camera capture of the Nawa bombardment near border with Israel (IDF official YouTube)
June 12th, 2014, 9:13 am
SYRIAN HAMSTER said:
dog-pooop athad crimes against humanity up to the end of May 2014
الاحصائية الأخيرة المرفقة، تمثل عدد ضحايا جرائم النظام السوري في سوريا حتى نهاية شهر أيار/مايو 2014 وذلك طوال 38.5 شهراً / 1,173 يوماً / 28,152 ساعةً
– عدد الشهداء الموثقين بشكل كامل: 118,863شهيداً بينهم 2,250 فلسطيني، و 12,310 شهداء أطفال، و 11,475 شهداء نساء: ، 6,495 شهداء تحت التعذيب.
– عدد الشهداء التقديري: 230,000 شهيداً (80% منهم مدنيين)، بينهم 2,400 فلسطيني، و 15,000 شهداء أطفال، و 14,000 شهداء نساء ، و 18,500 شهداء تحت التعذيب (يشمل العدد الوارد في الصور المسربة)
– عدد الجرحى التقريبي: فوق 187,370
– عدد المعتقلين التقريبي: فوق 258,260 (يشمل جزء من المعتقلين الذين خرجوا)
– عدد المفقودين التقريبي: فوق 99,440
– عدد اللاجئين خارج سورية: فوق 3,566,740
– عدد النازحين داخل سورية: فوق 7,650,000
– مجموع عدد ضحايا العنف 11,880,673 (شهداء، جرحى، معتقلين، مفقودين، لاجئين، نازحين)
– عدد افراد العائلات المتأثرة 60% من تعداد الشعب السوري: 15,627,402(عائلات الشهداء، عائلات الجرحى، عائلات المعتقلين، عائلات المفقودين، اللاجئين، النازحين)
– عدد العائلات التي أصبحت بدون معيل: حوالي 124 الف عائلة (حوالي 868 ألف فرد)
– عدد الشهداء الكلي التقديري بحسب عدد المعتقلين والمفقودين يفوق 230,000 شهيد
تفيد الأعداد الإجمالية بالمعدلات التالية (بحسب الأعداد الموثقة بشكل كامل):
– كل 4 دقائق……. يعتقل النظام مواطناً
– كل 10 دقائق…. يجرح النظام مواطناً
– كل 13 دقيقة….. يغيّب النظام مواطناً
– كل 15 دقيقة….. يقتل النظام مواطناً
– كل يوم…يقتل النظام 8 أطفال
– كل يوم…يقتل النظام 4 مواطنين تحت التعذيب
-كل يوم…. يهجّر النظام 3,040 مواطناً، وينزح 6,521 مواطناً داخل الوطن.
إعداد احصائيات الثورة السورية / قسم الإحصائيات في مركز دراسات الجمهورية الديمقراطية
دمشق: 12-06-2014
More on this link
June 12th, 2014, 3:21 pm
SYRIAN HAMSTER said:
I have translated the stats in my post above to English (don’t worry, I don’t use google translation like Alan”. I posted them OTW’s 7ee6an with my own “twist”.
http://7ee6an.wordpress.com/2014/06/12/just-a-statistic-by-syrian-hamster/
June 12th, 2014, 5:40 pm
Observer said:
So my assessment that there is a scenario that seems to have gone awry with Maliki ordering his troops to leave their posts so that he can draw in the gullible US and the Kurds. The Kurds leaved the fighting to remain between the Sunnis and Shias.
They played a very smart game. In the meantime, Iran is gearing up to join the fight with the IRGC mobilized and apparently helping the Iraqi army retake parts of Tikrit.
The US is about to blunder again and help with airstrikes. As if 10 years of occupation has stopped an insurgency and without a Sunni buy in into the sharing of power Iraq is finished as a state.
I am writing my representatives to make sure we do not immerse ourselves in the Sunni Shia civil war.
June 12th, 2014, 10:43 pm
ALAN said:
On top of all, the Saudi Arabia lobby is second largest in the US after the Israeli one, and Riyadh has already made a number of efforts to see Nouri al-Maliki go along with his supporters. A Shiite government in Baghdad — is a bone in the throat for Saudi Arabia, given all the hatred it shows to Tehran and out of fear of a Shiite arc creation, stretching from Iran to Lebanon. We can not also exclude the fact that the White House could have been behind all of this from the very beginning, while planning to provoke the disintegration of Iraq into three entities – Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish. After all, small states are easier to manage. The creation of a radical quasi-state of Sunnitstan at the very Syrian border and consequent fall of Nouri al-Maliki, would put Assad in a tough spot, reviving the US plans of overthrowing the legitimate government in Damascus. Apparently while realizing this, Tehran has recently announced it would be sending special forces to protect Baghdad in case it will be besieged.
***
So far, the only force that is able to resist the Islamist attacks in Iraq are the Kurdish armed forces. According to the “Shafaq News” media outlet, the Kurdish aviation has started patrolling the Kurdistan airspace, while the Peshmerga (armed Kurdish militants) and the police are fortifing the border area between Kirkuk and Nineveh, in order to be able to track the movements of the ISIS troops. Kurdish media have also reported the concentration of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces in the city of El Huveydzha . These moves are designed to protect the borders of the so-called “disputed territories”, including the city of Kirkuk and the Kirkuk oil field, the right for control over which has been contested by Baghdad and Erbil. Iraqi parliament speaker Osama al-Nujaifi announced that the Prime Minister of Kurdistan Masoud Barzani has expressed his readiness to support the Iraqi armed forces in their fight against Islamists in Ninewa, but only when they would get a request from Baghdad, the latter has been announcing that it would “deal with the situation on its own” despite massive desertion rates in Iraqi troops. Nouri al-Maliki fears that the Kurds will demand the right to control the Kirkuk oil field area in exchange for their military help. Then he will have a hard time finding sympathy with Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites alike.
Vladimir Simonov, Middle Eastern Expert
http://journal-neo.org/2014/06/13/nato-s-terror-hordes-in-iraq-a-pretext-for-syria-invasion/
http://youtu.be/lPectxDvfB8?t=1s
June 13th, 2014, 12:23 pm
ALAN said:
The main problem in the region is the behavior of the White House, concerned about their exclusive right for world domination and the belief that they alone are entitled to the uncontrolled use of force anywhere in the world.
The US has spent more than USD 1,000 billion on war on terrorism since September 11, 2001 attacks in order to erase the terrorists off the region. But to the dismay of Washington, an al-Qaeda-style group has emerged – this time along borders of Iraq and Syria.
The emergence of such groups is a nose-thumbing reaction to the US and a declaration of war on a government which claims to be the world’s only superpower.
The US was expected to make a face-saving decision six months ago and launch a counteroffensive on ISIL militants, but due to Washington’s negligence, this well-equipped and heavily-armed terrorist group has managed to cause widespread insecurity across Iraq. As recently as June 10, the ISIL militants took control of Nineveh Province, including its capital Mosul, forcing over 500,000 people in and around the city to flee.
Over recent months, the US could have ramped up pressure on Saudi Arabia to stop arming and financing the ISIL, could have stopped the flow of arms to Syria’s eastern and Iraq’s western borders and finally could have taken direct military action against this terrorist group.
The region is bracing for bleak prospects due to paradoxical strategies pursued by the United States and its allies with regards to the Middle East region. The US cannot continue to support regimes sponsoring terrorism while remaining hostile to democratic governments in the region. It cannot stay put vis-à-vis armed rebellion and Wahhabi/Takfiri terrorism while claiming to be defending human rights. The US is dipping further into the Middle East abyss due to its political and intellectual paradoxes.
June 13th, 2014, 1:31 pm
ALAN said:
Mark Weber
http://www.ihr.org/leaflets/iraqwar.shtml
June 13th, 2014, 4:47 pm
Syrialover said:
Dear OBSERVER,
Maliki and his handlers in Tehran are being given way more credit for strategy and resources than exists in reality.
From all accounts they did not see the full strength of this Sunni insurgency coming, although Maliki’s actions in power amount to everything imaginable to provoke it. It has blown them away and left them dithering in shock.
Maliki has wet his pants and is squealing for help from the international community. This is because it has many million times more skills, capability and resources to take effective action than Tehran (which is known to have a limited military capacity and financial pressures, and is why Iran instead uses terrorism and militia in its international operations).
According to those on the ground, the collapse of the Iraqi military is a reflection of a disastrous lack of morale, trust and respect for the central government – on top of inadequate resources and training and inept command.
Forget the conspiracy theories – simply they are not prepared die for Maliki. And any alleged call from Baghdad to withdraw could be part of this, or fear of loss of troops when Baghdad needs to be defended.
Sure Iranian militia figures are strutting around and making appearances at check points and militia recruitment centres to show they are defending their ally Maliki, but nobody expects Iran to do any heavy lifting unless forced to if they see their own borders under threat.
All I can think of is the terrible suffering of the people of Iraq, their country betrayed and destroyed by Maliki’s thug, corrupt, viciously sectarian leadership.
June 13th, 2014, 5:53 pm
Syrialover said:
SYRIAN HAMSTER (#83 & 84)
Those statistics are almost beyond comprehension and imagination for a country with Syria’s relatively small population.
Even more mind blowing is the fact it is being done by its own “leadership”. There must be no precedent for this in human history.
June 13th, 2014, 6:06 pm
Syrialover said:
Through the swift and steady build up of ISIS, the only ones to directly take them on and and fight them have been Syrian opposition forces.
Assad’s team instead have confined themselves to attacking the FSA.
That’s Bashar’s gift to Iraq and his buddy and fellow Tehran prostitute Maliki.
Assad + Maliki = collective IQ of -50.
June 13th, 2014, 6:18 pm
ALAN said:
http://youtu.be/krTwYVTTYrg?t=1s
June 13th, 2014, 6:26 pm
ALAN said:
The present mess in Iraq has “Made in Washington” written all over it. But not everyone in Washington is crazy, and the proof is a bipartisan effort to repeal the Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) in Iraq. Cosponsored by Senators Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), Ron Wyden (D-Oregon), and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York), the measure has widespread support, including from some very conservative Republicans like Mike Lee (R-Utah).
If this effort succeeds, it will be a huge roadblock in the path of the drive to start Iraq War III. After all, how is one to make the case for re-intervening at the very moment the official end to the war is being certified?
The last time the War Party tried to pull a fast one – during the alleged Syrian “humanitarian emergency,” when Obama was intent on bombing the regime of Bashar al-Assad out of existence – the American people rose up and put a stop to it. It’s not hard to imagine a similar eruption in the case of this latest made-in-Washington “crisis.”
This is the only factor keeping the Obama administration in check: fear of the political consequences.
June 13th, 2014, 6:39 pm
Syrialover said:
Attention SYRIAN HAMSTER, JUERGEN and others complaining about ALAN’s use of a lousy online translator (probably Russian) and his hard to decipher comments.
Have you noticed the dramatic switch to a new “ALAN”?
Either there are now two posting under that name, or the original ALAN has been ordered to give up his seat and keyboard to a fellow propagandist who is very fluent in English.
June 13th, 2014, 8:50 pm
Syrialover said:
Sometimes a tweet can say more than an essay:
# Remember when u were scared Muslim Brotherhood would establish Islamic state? Well ISIS has done that & it sits between Baghdad & Damascus
# Remember when they told us Western intervention in Syria would destabilize Middle East? 1 M Syrians in Leb, & ISIS has its own country now. Lol
# Iraqi army “ran away” from ISiS in Mosul the same way Assads army “ran away” from ISIS in Al Raqqa syria. That tells u something
(From Faress – https://twitter.com/farGar)
June 13th, 2014, 9:20 pm
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