Great Josh,

The number of responses is interesting and so are the opinions expressed.

Now dont start thinking about turning Syriacomment to a pay per view site.

Really, congratulations!

Quick comment, to Ehsani:

“Going against them was not smart long term strategy. Yes, he was right that the invasion was not going to go smoothly but so what? What has it changed from a strategic perspective?”

Yes, Assad could have went along with Bush and even helped him invade and occupy Iraq. But you’re absolutely wrong to think that doing so would’ve been in his long-term interests; quite the opposite. An insurgency was inevitable, really, because we’re talking about unnecessarily invading and occupying a deeply Islamic country and trying to radically changing the balance to impose some neo-liberal fantasy. If Assad went along with this, Syria would face an existential nightmare. The millions of Iraqis in Syria would likely take violent action in Syria and outside; Assad’s internal legitimacy, especially when Israel is occupying the Golan, would be destroyed; also what Bush did was simply morally wrong.

What Assad did was actually pretty smart. He warned Bush about going into Iraq, quite explicitly, and expends no effort to improve security in Iraq when there is no legitimacy; but he didn’t take any kind of offensive action against Bush, or directly support the insurgency. What he did was step aside and let the conflict play itself out, while also turning a blind eye to some Baathist and insurgency people in Syria.

If he didn’t toe the line as he did, I think there is a very good chance either Syria would be facing civil conflict or Assad would no longer be in power.

Joshua,

Nice to read this colorful discussion with the different points of view … this is a luxury these days … In comparison, blogs of “democracy fighters” have nothing but their own monotone black color.

That’s why you see 100 comments for every post here, and 5 comments for their posts… and you would think that they would at least notice it and learn something from you… nope.

Apparently, Dr. Landis is going through a process of self criticism with regards to his last article where he described the Shia of Lebanon as slaves, and the majority coalition government as an obstructionist tool in the hand of Ambassador Feltman standing in the way of resolving the crisis in Lebanon. I feel flattered that he included one of my responses in his process of self criticism, but disappointed for not including all of my response. I believe Dr. Landis needs to fully understand the unique character of the Lebanese political system before he embarks again on the dangerous slope of analyzing the system and proposing haphazard solutions based on false presumptions. I pointed out in my response to his article the importance of the so-called unwritten political code agreed upon by the Lebanese since their nation was formed in the beginning of the last century. I repeat that part of response herein below for him to ponder upon:
“Now, we would like to give Mr. Landis a little lesson in Lebanese politics which he seems to be unaware of. If you go through the above statistics you will find that the Muslims combined (Sunnis, Shia, Druze, etc) are roughly 60% of Lebanon’s population. The Christians on the other hand account for about 40% of the population. The number of MP’s accorded to the Muslims is 64 and that’s exactly the same number accorded to the Christians. You may wonder why is it so? Why don’t the Muslims insist on 77 MPs (that’s 60% of 128) and allow the Christians 51 (that’s 40% of 128 MPs)? Well, Mr. Landis you have to remember a fundamental fact about the way Lebanon was created in the early 1920s. There is an unwritten code among the Lebanese which recognizes the absolute balance of power among the two major religions in Lebanon (Muslims and Christians i.e.). No power on earth can override this unwritten code – not Bashar, not Ahmedinejad, not Nasrallah, not Olmert, not Bush, not Abdallah and none whatsoever. It is a mutual recognition given by the major denominations to each other that ensures the balance of representation in the running of the State regardless of statistical fluctuations of population numbers. “

Dr. Landis insists on his false assumption that the Shia of Lebanon represent some %40 of the population. He becomes apologetic when the government voter’ s list proves the fact that the Shia could not represent more than %26 to %30 of the population. It would have been more appropriate for Dr. Landis to look at the comment posted by Samir which further proves the Shia are roughly %29 of Lebanon’s total population. Here is Samir’s comment:
Lebanese Muslims outnumber Christians’
November 13 2006 at 03:39PM
By Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent
Beirut – Lebanon’s political system, which is once again in crisis, aims to share power equally between Christians and Muslims, but a survey published on Monday shows that Christians form only 35 percent of the population.
Private statistician Youssef al-Duweihi, a Maronite Christian, said his figures were based on identity registration records and electoral rolls throughout the country.
“This is scientific, not political,” he told Reuters by telephone from his north Lebanon home. “I want to tell the Lebanese this is Lebanon and if there is a problem, resolve it.”
According to his survey, published in the independent an-Nahar newspaper, Lebanon has 4,855-million people, of whom just over 35 percent are Christian, 29 percent Shi’a Muslim, 29 percent Sunni Muslim and 5 percent Druze.
Such figures are so sensitive in Lebanon that the last official census was conducted in 1932 during the French Mandate, which said Christians made up 55 percent of the population.
Duweihi, a mathematician, said his survey showed Lebanon’s demography was at odds with the power-sharing setup. “It’s time to discuss the political system and the electoral law,” he said.
His figures appeared at a time of political crisis that pits an anti-Syrian majority coalition government against the Shi’a Hezbollah and Amal factions backed by a Christian group.
If Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s government falls, there may be calls for new parliamentary elections, reopening controversy over how to reform a Syrian-designed electoral law that most Lebanese leaders say should be scrapped.
The Taif agreement which ended the 1975-90 civil war modified the complex religious power-sharing system, set up at the birth of modern Lebanon in 1943. Taif gave Muslims and Christians equal representation in parliament instead of the 6 to 5 advantage Christians had enjoyed previously.
It stipulated that the president should remain a Maronite, the prime minister a Sunni and the parliament speaker a Shi’a, while calling for the eventual abolition of the system that distributes state posts among Lebanon’s 17 recognised sects.

Josh,

Do you really think that Bashar Al Assad strategy centred around Lebanon only? Give us a free hand in Lebanon, and we will accommodate you in Iraq? Why do not we for a moment consider that Syria really have other objectives. If so, and it is not, why didnt the US “neutralize” a surely expected Syrian rejection of the war on Iraq, and leave Lebanon in Syria’s hands in exchange for Iraq? No sir, the US wanted the whole thing, the Middle East or the Arab World, under its control. Lock, stock and barrel. And it thought that such a wild dream was acheivable. Only to its dismay. Why do we not take that as the presmises for analysing Syria’s position? Is Syria not entitled to have its legitimate concerns, its own vision, and its own hopes? Who died and left the US king? Syria thought No one. And so would I think thought the majority of the Arab street. And if the US sees fit to have interests here, well, we have bigger, and more legitimate intersts. And this land is ours. And if the US thinks it accomplish those interests by Shock and Awe, very well, let it learn at its own expense. Which is exactly what happened. Israel has been trying to achieve the same thing against the Palestinans since 1948, and look what Israel has gotten. You just can not write off the national aspirations of the area’s peoples because you beleive that maybe they will roll over and play dead because you “think” that you are more powerfull.

Why is it not that Syria knew that objective was not only IRAQ, NOR Lebanon, NOR Hammas, but that the objective was the Whole Area under US/Israeli domination? Which it saw to stand up against.

Why, or how can we expect that Syria, as Baker wants, can deliver the Palestinan cause, Hamas, Fateh, and all, to the US/Israel if it wanted to. The offices of Palestinan groups are in Damascus, but is that a propper line of reasoning. Why does not the US deliver Israel? Hell, it is, Israel is a crazy idea after all. A state based on religion? A “Jewish State”, imagine, as in “Christian State”, or “Muslim State”! Not only a religous state, but a Racist AND a religious one as well! In this age and time? And a nasty, cold, and bloody one at that. Why dont breach true democracy to Israel? Just because it is there now, or because it is powerfull? Well, not so powerfull after all, is it?

Back to square one I believe. You just do not understand the language people talk here. It is a mix of religion, nationalisem, history, pride, hope, and a will to control own’s destiny. And you can not respond to that from a mere political and economic angle alone. Syria’s stand and position are not a great puzzel after all. They sum up the attitude, feelings and hopes of the majority of the 300 million Arabs who live in this area which stretches from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean. It is called the Arab World. If you chose to call it the Middle East, do so, at your own peril. And pay for such a misconception in the End. Ask the Ottoman Empire, or the British and the French ones. This is the central point, not Syria’s deliveribg Hamas and Hizballah and Iraq baathists. Which Syria does not want to deliver to anyone, nor can it deliver if it wanted to.

Bloggers and Commentators;

Just got back from a small trip and read the previous posts, as well as this one!

I am amazed that Josh would have the Temerity or audacity, to label the shiites as SLAVES. For an academic, this is appalling and a very iresponsible posture to adopt. ( Josh you should know better, but because we love your blog so much we will forgive you)

While the Lebanese confessional system is appalling, the fractured democracy that is prevalent there is at least a start, and by comparison across the border , there is a little freedom albeit small when comparing it to a fuly fledged western democracy.

However it is the only beacon in the ARAB world,

GIBRAN,

See finally you have acheived self fullfilment at Syria comment. Pateince pays off.

So, and on this occasion as they say, and for God’s sake, can we stop talking about HOW SMART ASSAD is? As if IQ was the issue here. Why not use CORRECT? Asaad has proven to be TACTICALLY smart, definitly. He had. Strategically? He did not have to be anything -to take the stand he took- but an Arab. And that, he has been.

And from now on, and as “people are watching”, please shed off your supremacist shirt so that you can gain more people to your cause. Whatever it is. And, have you given my “proposed” Syria-Lebanon Union any further thoughts? Like starting with a SyrialebanonCommentdotcom? Ok, Lebanonsyriacommentdotcom?

ENLIGHTEND,

What a “START AT LEAST” would Lebanon’s Democracy be??? It has been there since France left Lebanon. Back in ninteen twenty something, long before Syria became independent. Long before anyone came to power in Damascus. If STARTS take that long, look like that, and get you to where Lebanon is right now, we would better look at other better and different STARTS.

وزير الخارجية البلجيكى: سورية ساهمت فى الاتفاق على تشكيل حكومة الوحدة الوطنية الفلسطينية
الإثنين 2007-03-12

قال/كاريل دوغوخيت/وزير الخارجية البلجيكى ان سورية ساهمت فى الاتفاق على تشكيل حكومة الوحدة الوطنية الفلسطينية.
واضاف/دوغوخيت/فى حديث لقناة/الجزيرة/الليلة ان سورية متعاونة فى الموضوع العراقى وتأمين استقرار هذا البلد وانها استقبلت اكثر من مليون عراقى مهجر على اراضيها وقدمت لهم العون.
واوضح/دوغوخيت/ان رئيس لجنة التحقيق الدولية/سيرج براميريتس/نوه بالتعاون السورى فى قضية اغتيال/رفيق الحريرى/رئيس وزراء لبنان الاسبق وان السوريين مرتاحون لطريقة تحقيقه.

Alex,

Nice, let us keep counting our blessings. While they last. But I think Bashar Al Assad was right, whatever Syria does, someone will keep saying: Not Enough!

Dear Enlightened, and others who asked why don’t we look at the supposedly more urgent case of Syrian political reforms.

Lebanon’s political system (democracy) is in more need of reform than Syria’s .. why? … because in authoritarian Syria it is at least stable. In Lebanon … it is chaotic. Same in Iraq.

Democracy takes responsible and mature people to not abuse it… in the Middle East … we are not there yet. It takes serious effort in reforming the education System to take religion out of politics and out of national pride… and we need to learn how to respect other points of view, and we need to accept defeat when things do not go our way … until then, thank you so much, I will take the stable authoritarian system in Syria with gradual reforms.

I ask you something: can you change anything in nature by force and then expect the change to survive after that force is removed?

Syria’s political system and Lebanon’s political system both need careful redesign … in Lebanon more risk might be justified (faster changes) because now things are already very risky. In Syria, there is no need to mess up everything… a 5-10 year transition period towards democracy is wiser.

And one last thing … look at the numbers in Lebanon’s latest poll … People want stability, not agressive “democracy fighters” .. Junblatt and Geagea are not popular … Aoun, Hariri, and Nasrallah who are more balanced are more appealing to the Lebanese people… and , you can’t fool everyonew even if you own all the Media .. most Lebanese thought the United states is the party that is hindering the solutions to their problems.

So if the Syrian regime haters (Jumblatt and geagea) want to be democratic… they should take a vacation. Not many Lebanese are buying their “the Syrian dictator is the worst enemy of Lebanon”

OK..

What REFORMES does Syria need? Same like any other Developing Country, namely:

1-Political Reforme
2-Economic Reform
3-Social Reform

Does anyone one have the magic formula for carrying out those needed Reforms and duties quickly and smiltanuously while Syria has to deal with the:

4-Most important, OR, as Important, SYRIA has a duty to Liberate its Lands, or at least to Stand up to the military dangers posed by Israel’s presence….

and…

5- The neoconservative agenda, be it the War On Terror, or Clean Break, or Bush’s deomocratization stuff?

Tell us…

Ausamaa

Many things are going Syria’s way (talks, prospects for peace negotiations ..etc)… but, there are some powerful people who are still working hard to disrupt every potential solution. Some people really want war it seems.

You’ll read more tomorrow.

Actually before I go to sleep, another difference between Lebanon and Syria:

1) Lebanon is a regional political playground. It is where every regional power can fight its rivals.

2) Syria is a regional power BUT lately some other regional and international powers wanted to convert it into another Lebanon … the way they converted Iraq, which used to be an even stronger regional power, into a Lebanon-like weak entity.

So, another reason why we do not want to discuss today’s imported instant democracy for Syria is that it is merely a front for the above process. When wise and honest people discuss democracy in Syria, I will listen … for now the crooks and the war criminals are the loudest supporters for Syria democracy… not very encouraging to follow such leadership.

Ausamma:

Point taken it was around since 1920, but so what does syria have the same political freedom? NO IT DOESNT PERIOD, a brief flirtation with democracy pr baath was squashed by the armed forces. Political reformation has stalled in Lebanon because of the confesional system- it is archaic oudated and not functioning! Look at the current impasse, the President would not dare to dissolve the cabinet and parliament and order fresh elections would he? The main reason it has not progressed is mainly because those ZAIMs and their fiefdoms, and clans will not let go of power ( sound familiar with the syrian generals and the asads?) Unfortunately when you play politics in the middle east, it is life and death, you achieve the pinnacle of power and you dont let go, you die in office or are killed and your son or brother takes over, that is the sad reality.

Alex: my last point before i go home its almost seven here and im at my desk, yes syria is stable but 400,000 security agents make sure of that. Yes its amazing how the ex war lords are calling for syrian democracy, it would best be heard from all syrians.

Ps dream of a democratic middle east, with freedoms and rights for all whatever their sect or political affiliation

Charles Coutinho asks:

“For example: Baghdad circa 1945, had very large Jewish and Christian populations, where are they now? The same could be said for Tripoli, Alexandria, Damascus, et, cetera, et cetera.”

Perhaps they are taking refuge from the rise of Islamic intolerance. In your list you didn’t mention Palestine.

Alex said”

“Many things are going Syria’s way (talks, prospects for peace negotiations ..etc)… but, there are some powerful people who are still working hard to disrupt every potential solution. Some people really want war it seems.”

Which “people really want war”? Can you be more specific?

Let me guess who DOESN’T want war, Syria (unless it only hurts Israel), Ahmadinejad, Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, al-Queda, and the misunderstood Iraqi insurgents.

Congratulations Alex for coming to the rescue of Dr. Landis with his last filibuster. Even though they were black and white but still those figures may do a lot of damage control to Landis latest attempt to portray the Shia of Lebanon as slaves as well as his theory about obstructionism in Lebanon’s political crisis. Alex is not much different than his mentor (Landis in this case). He brings in report of a so-called opinion poll published in Al-Akbar, a well know Seyassah version with a Hezbollah/Syria flavor. And guess who is Abdo Saad, the director of the celebrated Beirut Center for Research and Information where the so-called poll took place?
He is a well known Hezbollah activist and supporter. And have you heard Mr. Nasrallah’s latest speech? First you should listen to Nasrallah speaking and then come back and read the questions of the so-called study conducted on mere 800 ‘respondents’ in an effort to gauge the political mood of one of the most diverse countries in the world. Well, after you absorb, hopefully with enough patience left in you, the ‘Sayyed’s’ arduous pronouncements/dictates come back and read this wonderful poll.
Well, at one time during my exchanges with a commentator in the last Landis post, I thought a sample of over 3,000,000 people (Government voter’s list) was statistically inadequate. I wonder what an 800 person’s sample taken by a Hezbollah member would do in terms of justice to Lebanon’s popular mood?
And we have to remember it is the fact=fiction virtual reality spot of the wonderful academic Landis of the heartland of America!

Again, Landis, you have a problem reading right it seems. Tuttle didn’t talk about voter registrations. He talked about an unofficial census, which as I recall, was based on birth registrations.

How you are a professor beats me. You can’t even read right. Or maybe you can, but prefer to lie. Not sure which is worse.

As for quoting the Beirut Center, why not just quote Hezbollah’s press office?

For the record, I wrote that Lebanese Shiites are

counted

like slaves. I carefully denied that they are

treated

like slaves were in the US. If there is no concern that Shiites are undercounted and Taif has power-sharing essentially right, why not advocate for a new census and why hasn’t the Lebanese government sponsored one long ago?

The point of the article was to spotlight the important socio-political problems in the Lebanese system. They need to be addressed in order for the instability begun with the civil war to finally come to an end.

Dr Landis,
Please allow me with all humility to welcome you to your own blog. I feel obliged to do so because we, the underprivileged, non-academic, slave-like class, feel lonely when you post your article and leave us alone to our bewilderment.
Now, let’s set protocol aside. The title of your last article was a sensational: Counting Lebanon’s Shia as Slaves: Why the Lebanon Deal is Obstructed?

You go on to state in your article half way through:

“What is wrong with the “consociational” system that is held up as the epitome of Lebanese democracy and power-sharing? Quite simply, it treats Shiites like slaves. In pre-civil war America, black slaves were counted as half a white person. In Lebanon they are accorded the same political weight. Although Shiites are estimated to make up some 40% of the population, the Taif Accords, Lebanon’s constitutional arrangement, permit the Shiites only 22% of the seats in parliament.”

Now you descend upon us all of a sudden, and enlighten us with a turn-about-face execuse worse than the original blunder : “I wrote that Lebanese Shiites are counted like slaves, I carefully denied that they are treated like slaves.” Well Dr, Landis your are contradicting yourself. This is exactly what you said in your last arrticle. Should we zoom in on it? Here it is:
“Quite simply, it treats Shiites like slaves. In pre-civil war America, black slaves were counted as half a white person.” You said “treats”.
Now we’ll repeat once again at the risk of being called repetitive. But there is merit to repetition as claimed by some famous Arab saying which is not very appropriate for this discussion.
The Lebanese Shia at most make up %30 of Lebanon’s population. Sunnis outnumber the Shia according to most recent independent and scientific studies as well as Lebanese government estimates based on its records. The Shia of Lebanon hold the second highest authority in the country. In addition they are accorded equal number of MP’s as the Sunnis. The Shia had representation in the Government of Mr. Seniora until they decided to quit their posts at the behest of their patrons in Damascus and Tehran for the sole purpose of obstructing justice in the case of forming the International Tribunal. These ministers are welcome back to the fold of the legitimate government with no questions asked anytime they feel they can put their Lebanese loyalty ahead of their loyalty to their foreign despotic masters.
If the Lebanese political system is in need of reformation, the proper venue would be the Lebanese parliament where the elected representatives of Lebanon can sit down and intelligently debate the issues at hand. It can never happen by unemployed gangsters paid by Hezbollah and Tehran camping in downtown Beirut. The particularties of the Lebanese political system necessitate the utmost repect for the unwritten code of balancing the sharing of political power among the two major Religions as well as among the constituting sects. Any tampering with this code will radically transform Lebanon, and would even nullify its raison d’etre. Lebanon has a message to the region as well as to the whole world. It is, despite the ills of its sectarian political landscape, the beacon of light where all faiths can co-exist in a political framework without fear of being in danger of annihilation at the hand of a competing faith.
Regarding the end of the Lebanese civil, It has ENDED in 1989. The latest crisis is nothing more than a desperate attempt by a Syrian regime that can not come to grips with its defeat in Lebanon.
Now Dr. Landis, may I humbly ask you to do something better with your distinctive credentials and life bedsides this petty lonely place called Lebanon? We have been around for few thousand years. We appreciate your concerns. But we have more than enough qualified Lebanese who understand the country very, very very well. If we need your advise or help, rest assured we will not feel ashamed to ask for it.

Gibran and G,

I did not know the two of you are experts in statistics and probabilities!

And especially G who so far contributed “oh Alex you are so stupid” type of useful comments.

So you think that a sample size for American voter preferences are calculated using YOUR method? so for 300 million Americans (100 bigger population than Lebanons, roughly) then a sample size of 80,000 will not satisfy you?!

: )

OK, I’ll give you a hint:

For populations that are large, Cochran developed this Equation to yield a representative sample for proportions.

Read it and tell me how Lebanon’s overall population size is used in determining the needed sample size for such a survery.

Another way, easier for you to understand is to check precalculated tables. So for confidence level of 95% and MAXIMUM variability .5 … a sample of 400 would have been enough.

As for your other “character assassination” tactic of refusing the results of the Poll because you do not like them … I can not help you, and no one can help you in that regard. You need something called “wisdom” … some people have it, some do not.

You could have noted that the Poll gave Saad Hariri (pro governemet) more popularity numbers thatn Nasrallah… no? .. did Asssyassa ever give Bashar better marks than King Abdullah?

This poll is not perfect (is there such a thing?), but it is good enough.

Alex,
Who said we didn’t like the colors and the tabulated format of your questionnaires. They’re nice and attractive even though they are in black and white.

I did question the sample size based on the arguments raised in my last exchange with some commentator who seemed not satisfied with a sample size of over 3000000 which would be about %80 to %90 of Lebanon’s population. I also questioned the objectivity of the pollster himself in your case. Come on Alex it does not need too much wisdom to recognize the facts in Lebanon. If you have political affiliation of any kind and you set out to conduct such a study, you will be questioned regarding your objectivity. Sure it is easy I can go to Dahia, Baal beck or what have you and collect a sample of 800 people’s answers. But guess what, all my respondents are of the same political leanings. Similarly, I could go to Jounieh, Kisrwan, Bikfaya and collect the answers of another sample of 800 respondents. And guess what? All my respondents will have the same but opposite leanings as the previous sample.
Now the person himself and the way he conducts his analysis is also important. Is any independent agency checking his work? How reliable are his methods? Who else was involved in that study? Plus many more questions.
Now excuse me Alex. You presented none of that. You just popped up some table full of figures at an appropriate time clearly designed to rescue your dear friend Dr. from Oklahoma.
Now you may think we don’t have enough wisdom and may assume that our statistical knowledge is depraved, but we have the right to ask all of these questions and more.

ausamaa asks:

“What REFORMES does Syria need?”

Shirley, you jest. The WHOLE ME needs reform. But those leading the “ME Utopia” want you to take your eyes away from the needed reforms issue, and instead, focus on the “duty to Liberate its Lands” and/or “Stand up to the military dangers posed by Israel’s presence”.

So yes, you have made the correct assumption: Wallow in poverty, violence and oppression and wait until Allah frees you of the Joos. I mean, really, what’s more important?

It is no coincidence that Arafat and Saddam Hussein were billionaires.

Alex,

You should be careful in attempting to use sample sizes that constitute less than 95% of the population. Otherwise, your estimates may have some sampling bias in them. Unlike the Al Jazeera renouned researchers who carefully administered a survey to 95% of the lebanese population and carefully tabulated their numbers and discussed their methodology in order to eliminate any bias in the results.

Even if voter polls are perfect those polls reflect the statistical distribution of voters and NOT necessarily of the population at large. Economically disenfranchised populations tend to vote in smaller numbers.

To all those sensetive soles who have expressed worried about the headline and the SLAVES word, today I printed out the Article and the responses and gave two copies to two Lebanese friends. Christians and a Shieat Muslims, mostly fortiesh, senior executives, Western educated, the works. And Guess What? None of those belonging to the Shieat sect were even the least offended. Actually, they were enraged at Gibran’s comment:”this is what the Shieats get, and nothing more”. The Christians laughed and asked: Who the hell is he?

A discussion ensued and all at the end agreed that the Hizballah and Aoun agreement followed by Aoun’s supporters embrace of the refugees during the war has done Lebanese Society a huge benifit. It has effectively reshuffled the whole deck. Not Politically only, but Psychologically.

So GIBRAN, please leave Josh and Alex’s statistics alone for a while, and try to understand that what you breach here, if its anything but bashing Syria, is not really representative of the overall Lebanese attitude. Actually, a lot of the posts here seem a bit removed from reality, having originated in the US and Canada. They, some posts, do not reflect what we experience here every day. The effect is somewhat dampened watered down at your end. It is like you guys are receiving the NEWS of what is happening in the area, but you are still somewhat insulated from the full impact of the changes as they are felt here.

And dear GIBRAN, stop feeling so insecure by Syria and all; the Lebanese I know here are not that scared of Hizballah and Syria as you are….if it is any consolation. And we do speak to each other… and laugh at things together also…

Imagine???

Have you given any further thoughts to my proposed Syria-Lebanon Union or Fedration. And do not worry, it would not be on the basis of one-man-one-vote. We will find a better formula. If we can wrap this up real quick, we can then start talking about accepting Jordan and then Iraq in the proposed Union??

ugarit:Economically disenfranchised populations tend to vote in smaller numbers.
Again here,it’s known that the shias are better organized than the sunnis and follow their leaders like sheeps,an another myth must also fall, they are not more poor than other leb communities.

Samir:

I was speaking in general about voting polls.

Are you not perpetuating a myth that the Shia “follow their leaders like sheep”? Or do you have statistics to support this claim?

Aussama:if its anything but bashing Syria, is not really representative of the overall Lebanese attitude

I dont think that the so called pro syrians in lebanon love the syrian people,they love asad because he is alawite,this is not more than a sectarian alliance.When the regime will fall,will they remain pro syria ?

Most of the lebanese who have family relations with the syrian people,or the lebanese of syrian origin;those are against the regime and not anti SYRIA at all ,how can they hate their syrian cousins?

Yeh,

and I guess the Syrian Workers who were murdered in Lebanon we murdered because they are ASSADISTS, not Because they were SYRIANS.

And for the time being, and until Junblat work out a way to change the “regime” in Damascus, it is advisable for the Enlightened Lebanese (pro Feb 14) to lump the Syrian Regime and the Syrian People in one basket. As far Lebanoon Al Sayyed Al Mista’eil is concerened, Syrians and Assad have more or less the same point of view.

Olmert looks to Saudi peace plan
Abraham Rabinovich
13 March 2007
The Australian
English
Copyright 2007 News Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Jerusalem

WITH hopes of Israeli-Palestinian peace mired in mutual suspicion, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will attempt to achieve a peace agreement this month with the broader Arab world by backing a five-year-old Saudi Arabian peace plan.

In a signal defining his new agenda, Mr Olmert expressed hope at yesterday’s cabinet meeting that Arab leaders assembling in Riyadh later this month would endorse the “positive elements” of a regional peace plan tabled by Saudi Arabia in 2002. That plan calls for Israel to pull back from all territories captured in the 1967 Six Day War in return for peace and normalisation of relations with all Arab states.

Mr Olmert first indicated interest in the Saudi plan a few weeks ago when he said he saw in it positive elements. That general statement was elevated to the status of policy when he expanded on it at the opening of yesterday’s meeting in the presence of television cameras and said that the Saudi initiative should be taken seriously.

“We hope very much that during the meeting of the heads of Arab states in Riyadh, the positive elements expressed in the Saudi initiative will be validated and perhaps will strengthen chances for negotiations between us and the Palestinians,” he said.

Israel has previously ignored the Saudi proposal, hoping to achieve more favourable terms in direct negotiations with the Palestinians and Syria. The main stumbling block in the proposal for Israel is its reference to the refugee problem.

The original Saudi Arabian proposal called for a “just” solution for the millions of Palestinians living now as refugees in the Arab world.

But when the proposal was endorsed in Beirut by the Arab League in 2002, this was changed to a declaration of the right of the refugees to return to homes inside Israel abandoned during the first Israel-Arab war in 1948 — a clear non-starter for Israel, which sees in it the demographic demise of the Jewish state. Israeli officials have expressed the hope that at the meeting in Riyadh this month, the Arab leaders will restore the original wording.

The secretary-general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, has said this will not happen. Nevertheless, Israeli leaders still hope that the Saudi leadership, which has assumed a central role in the Arab world, will moderate the wording in order to encourage Israel to enter into discussions.

It is, ironically, the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran that is encouraging an unprecedented rapport between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Although there are no diplomatic relations between the two countries, Mr Olmert met six months ago with Saudi national security adviser Prince Bandar bin Sultan in Amman. The prince is believed to be in ongoing contact with Israeli representatives, with Washington’s blessing.

Israeli minister Meir Sheetrit told Israel radio yesterday that although there were concerns about some aspects of the Saudi initiative, such as the refugee question, the only way to achieve political momentum was to engage with the broad Arab world.

“These concerns are real but they shouldn’t paralyse us,” he said. “If we sit and talk we will find solutions.”

Aussama ,stop trying to mix shit with purity there is no people on earth who will accept a minority corrupt sectarian criminal treacherous regime,specialy the syrian sunnis and we will never accept the minority rule,we are proud people,we have dignity and memory;this is our natural right to be ruled by people who are close to our culture and not by 13 Mukhabarat apparatuses and depraved people.

Josh, so you want Lebanon and Iraq perfect but what is the point if Syria is not even trying to start to be democratic.

I thought when I started reading your blog that you are an independent academic researcher but I did not know you are just a regime’s mouthpiece exactly like Tishreen or Baath, a bit more advanced in appearance but the substance is the same rotten one.

When is the last time you reported on human rights in Syria??? or you just have determined like some friends that it is not worth it to criticize the regime since it is too sensitive!

Syria shows its democratic Face

Gibran,

The poll also showed Druze who gave America their full trust … it has Christians who did not trust Iran … and It has a majority of Shiites who liked Hariri’s speech

Howe can that be fully biased as you suggested? ..

As for the person who conducted it, Saudi Owned Al-Hayat published his earlier work, so despite his Shiite bias (If you insist) he can produce professional work.

Again, I am sure the poll is not perfect …. but it seems to be good enough and not one sided in its conclusions.

FARES,

Just a reminder:

At Rime’s blog recently you denied that you go after those who have opinions that are not to your liking by attacking their credibility and calling them names.

I think it is beyond your control .. you are another “democracy fighter” who is not ready for Democracy.

Alex,

This time you are starting to attack!

Syria Comment should reflect what is happening in Syria not just be a regime’s english blog. Josh goes full length with the help of readers like yourself to gather news about Syria but he chooses to ignore the negative news happening in Syria or because of its regime policies…this coming from a researcher is really not acceptable. Josh can have his own opinion on anything and he can ignore anything that does not please the regime, but he really should change the name of the blog to BAATH Comment and please I don’t want to argue with you this time so if Josh chooses he can aswer me.

BTW ALEX,

This is what some idiot wrote on my blog as a comment in the “About” section, and I did not delete it or respond to it which I could have done but that shows you how people tarnish the reputation of honest people in Syria. It is really disgusting

—-
what do u know about the relation between michel kilo and the former chief of political system (Amen al Syeasse) Ba7jat Sleiman? i know from a source (not the mukabarat) that he was taking direct order to speak in the right time and to say that now or later and to who! and when Sleiman left the system miche was lost so he started making mistakes (with the regime according to them). and because his old (sorry to say that) “m3almen” left, the new director started to watch michel since he was consider as ZELMET the previous 1 Bahjat Sleiman! and ofcourse when michel was now without order or advice he did the big move when he signed the article abt lebanon in a very wrong time so he was putted in jail.
i m not saing that he doesn;t beilive to be free ofcouse not. but ur reader have to know all the true abt Kilo since they have the right!
—-

Does not surprise me!!! from a rotten secret service mentality which BTW are very active on this blog.

Last night, when i got home i got my wife (who is shiite) to read Joshs article.

Her reactions:

She wasnt offended; she thought the article encapsulated the general shiite feelings of under representation in the Lebanese system; ( I spoke to her about the general shiite feeling of always being the outcasts in the arab world, and her response was that coming from a sunni family ( and i dont pray etc etc etc ) i didnt have a clue on how they were treated in Lebanon, my mother in law has told me a few stories of her school days, and the general consensus amongst other kids that shiites had tails that they hid in their clothes, etc to highlight one)

I rang my brother in law in melbourne and got him to read it, he also wasnt offended. My father in law who is more secular than i am commented if the muslims get control of Lebanon they will ruin the country, and that yes they needed more rights than they currently do.

Yes this current thread has polarised some people including myself. I still stand by my earlier comment that it was very irresponsible by Josh and his words should have been chosen more carefully!

I wonder if he would have written about the sectarianism in the syrian system under Hafez assad and how Alawites got favourable treatment compared to the rest of the population? Rather than confront the blatant sectarianism and its problems in the ME, I think Joshs atricle has only poured more fuel on the fire! ( If that was his intent)

Fares,

Did I or Joshua or Rime ever accuse you of being a paid CIA spy?

As you can see from this post, Joshua posted many of the opinions of those who strongly disagreed with him… And he posted them without packaging them negatively like the rest of the “Freedom loving” blogs and sites do … In Creative Syria, you see Ammar’s name and articles (critical of the Syrian regime) always on top … no one wants to stop you or others from expressing your point of view. No one stopped you from linking here any credible stories about regime corruption or disregard for human rights … but just try to control your habit of accusing people of being Baathists or or regime apologists …

SAMIR said: “…. there is no people on earth who will accept a minority corrupt sectarian criminal treacherous regime,specialy the syrian sunnis and we will never accept the minority rule,we are proud people,we have dignity and memory;this is our natural right….”

The Syrian regime is corrupt and dictatorial. What does the minority status of the dictator have to do with this? Are you implying that Sunnis will not accept anyone but a Sunni? Shay Hilo!

Are you for democracy and to be ruled by any legitimate ruler regardless of that rulers minority status? If you’re not then I don’t want your kind of Syria.

Ugarit,tyranny has no religion.
If the syrian people elect an alawite as president of Syria,then i have nothing to say other than accepting him as my president.
And why not many of them deserve it.
In the past,before the blood era,the christian of lebanese origin,Fares bey Al Khoury was elected prime minister of Syria and he was one of the most loved politician in the country.

1. The Beirut Centre for Media and Information is affiliated with Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a Hizballa supporter. Its findings are suspect.

2. Even taken at face value, the survey deliberately words the questions so as to decrease Lebanese blame of Syria in obstructing a solution to the crisis (Q4). Rather than a unified Iran-Syria category, the respondent is presented with the options “Syria” (17%) and “Syria and Iran” (18%).

An honest observer would correct this methodological bias and report that 35% of Lebanese blame Syria and Iran, according to the BCMI survey. But Landis goes along with the deception and writes: “17% blame Syria”.

In contrast, the US category is phrased open-endedly – “the USA and others”. Landis reports: 51% blame the US.

K

You are right about the 35% blame for Syria and Iran. And you are right that Q4 is vague.

But I’m sure you can see consistent correlation between the different sections of the poll … the answers are consistent … Druze and Geagea supporters make up the roughly 30% of Lebanese who are extremely anti Syria and very much pro America.

The rest of the Lebanese (about 70%) want their leaders to find a way out of this mess .. they don’t give a damn anymore about Politics.

Is this fair enough rough conclusion?

Dear Josh:

You nailed the issue and your analysis
synchs ups with the experts at the University
of St. Joseph.

//Nur

Alex:

“Druze and Geagea supporters make up the roughly 30% of Lebanese who are extremely anti Syria and very much pro America….The rest of the Lebanese (about 70%) want their leaders to find a way out of this mess … ”

This is propagandistic. By stating that “the rest” want their leaders to find a way out, you insinuate that “Druze and Geagea supporters” do NOT want their leaders to find a solution. It’s a silly accusation to level.

In fact, EVERYONE wants their leaders to find a way out of this mess. People differ as to what the solution will look like. Will a “solution” reestablish Syrian hegemony over Lebanon, or consolidate Lebanon’s indepedence?

The specific topic at hand, Q4 of the BCRI survey, is “Who is obstructing a solution?” According to the biased BCRI, 35% blame Syria, Iran or both. I believe the figure is higher. In my personal estimate, Lebanon is divided roughly 50-50.

K,

We are both saying our personal opinion here. When you say it is split 50/50, and when I make a statement that sounds like I believe Geagea and Jumblatt supporters do not want a solution.

There is nothing propagandistic about my statement above… In my opinion, those who seek extreme solutions in fact do not want a solution … even if they are convinced that they want a solution. If a Hizbollah fighter wants total Iranian hegemony over Lebanon or if a Junblatt supporter wants a solution that ensures Syria is boycotted (in the name of 100% Lebanese sovereignty) then they both do not want a solution…

There will be no total Syrian absence from Lebanon while there is American, Saudi, Israeli and French strong presence and influence on Lebanon. In practice, those who want zero Syria role do not want solutions.

It is strange that Micheal Young’s response was not published, whereas I know for a fact that he did send one.
This professor from Oklahoma is a shady carahcter that I’m sure the Syria – Hizbollah crowd is very happy to have for it gives them international positive exposure that they could not have articulated on their own. Landis is of course entitled to his own opinion on things and I won’t throw in his face the too easy “this is not of your business you’re not from the erea you can’t understand” because I think that we can all have opinions on political issues not related to our own countries. But the problem in his case is that he’s methodicaly doing perverse propaganda for the S

Propagnada for the Syrian regime totaly focusing on Syrian interests and considering Lebanon as a minor detail in the process. This is neither an academic nor a responsible attitude, as a Lebanese I profoundly resent the fact that he is participating in the harm done to us through that regime and its supporters and he does it so easily from the US as if all this was a game challenging his mental gymnastics.
At the very least, someone so keen on splitting hairs counting the “sufferings” of the Shia in our so “obscurantist” Lebanese system should hyave the integrity of asking himself a fiew fundamental questions about the Syrians he’s defending. Not to mention that, for an academic, he doesn’t seem to be bothered by the contradiction between defending democratic secular ideas and entering the game of counting the exact number of seat in parliment for Shia and complaining about its corredpondance to their number.
Academic people are not supposed to be saints, not even realy objective, everybody tries through method to be somewhat objective but nobody realy is. The problem with Landis is that he doesn’t even try, except on some technicalities that make things worse, his method is shady and full of contradictions.
As for all those who applaud him and run to his rescue and the rescue of the Syrian regime and its followers in Lebanon, the only thing you’re succeding in is transforming political differences in Lebanon into deep hatred because all your attitude, your actions, your arguments and those of your leaders are based on bad faith and misplaced pride. I don’t care one bit about Landis, but you are part of the country and you’re letting yourself be dragged away from it into the blackwhole of Syria.

Dear Maya,

Since I am one of those who “applaud him” I can only tell you that you have been a hostage to Saudi owned Media in Lebanon that you are missing the real story: You have replaced Syrian control of lebanon with Saudi/American/French control.

You can get upset at “landis” and you can find it sad that his Syrian supporters are blind and foolish enought to make the Lebanese hate us even more, but too bad Maya .. we do not hate you despite your warlords/leaders calling on the US to invade Syria and calling on “a son of the mountain” to assassinate our president.

Ohhhh, then we are in your debt Alex! Thank you so much for your kindness! That you don’t hate us despite our brutal war against you, which has included multiple assassinations, car explosions, arms and fighters smugglings, obstruction of institutions, etc. etc.

Oh wait… never mind…

The nerve of you people… astonishing…

[…] That post (which is longer than what’s excerpted above) was obviously provocative and generated a lot of comments on Landis’ blog. He eventually posted a follow-up with some reader responses and said he wanted to let passions cool. He did mention that Young had responded but did not put up his response. […]

To those syrians who post here and that supposedly academic, know that you make us wish for Syria a taste of what it’s giving us in Lebanon. And yes if someone can kill that giraffe president of yours we would be happy that he rotes in hell with his father.
As in Saddam’s Irak, the only thing keeping you from facing the kind of “troubles” that you seem to disdain so much in Lebanon is dictatorship. And if you’re happy with it then keep it and choke on it, just leave us alone.
What you always resort to is the conviction put in your heads by your masters that we are replacing syrian occupation by american western saudi..etc. disregarding the fact that the spirit that moved March 14 people (not leaders nor their followers) was beyond that,animated by a genuine will of freedom and democracy that smart people in the opposition in your country adhere to and defend..in syrian prisons. You ignore the fundamental issue and banalise it in temrs of just another allegance,us “daring” to change allegance!! The fact that you don’t want to see beyond that only shows your indoctrination. We, the March 14 independant people, know very well the shortcomings, mistakes and limits of the leaders we have, we also know that the US/Europe/Saudi Arabia support us according to their agenda and interests, but getting rid of you, trying to build a real state, working to achieve some form of neutrality to Lebanon that could get us out of your grip is a fundamental hope for all of us in spite of the pitty interests of anyone. But even if we follow your reasoning to the end: our actions bringing western influence instead of yours, try to understand that we have the nerve to prefer the western influence to your occupation. We’ve had the syrian regime on our back for 30 years, we know it in and out,have tasted all it perversity..at this point the devil himself is better.
As to your disdain towards our country “that is not a real country and never will be”, it might be true, we certaintly don’t sit comfortably on eternal final certainties like you do thanks to your ideology, we are always affraid that our dreams for our country won’t come true, we know that we’ve not been able to construct a real state yet, we know that we killed each other in a long war, we know that the great Lebanon is more in our dreams and hopes than in reality. If all this confort you in thinking that we’re just a bothersome mess, go ahead, but for us that “idea” of Lebanon, even if it remains virtual and never materialises (can I say more to go in the sense of your logic) is worth fighting for and is worth all the arab countries put together and more. That’s what you don’t understand or don’t want to understand. But just to show you how deeply rooted what I’m saying is, a little story. My father, who was of syrian origin, was forced to go earn a living in Syria in 76 after a year of unemployment in Lebanon because of the war. We thought it was temporary but he ended up having to spend 10 years there coming and going as he could, suffering from a lonely life and going through a nightmare of fears for us everyday. My mother, a Lebanese, had her own nightmare of seeing 4 children through the war alone, we had to go to school, then university under the bombs. At some point, exhausted by fear, she asked my father that he takes us all to live with him in Syria to escape the dangers. His answer was categoric, and never changed throughout the war, “I’ll never allow my children to live in Syria, despite the war Lebanon will offer them a better life than what they would have in Syria, in spite of all my suffering I prefer Lebanon under the bombs to the stability of death in Syria”. None of us ever regretted that choice even though we all had near death experiences. Can you begin to understand what it is that made us pay that price for this country? Can you imagine our attachement to it having paid that price of tears and fear and danger? Can you comprehend that your disdain of our miseries only appeases your conscience and doesn’t even begin to penetrate the depth of the meaning of this country? A meaning which I’m sure Syria has too, but certainly not through that regime or people like you who are happy following it.
I grew up considering Israel as our ennemy and I’ve had every reason to hate them more and more as years went by and to understand the main reason for my hatred towards them: their egocentrism, bad faith, infinite capacity of lying and distorting truth, and blind violence. We’ve had again a taste of all that this summer. But guess what, if I see the same characteristics in our arab “brothers”,as I do in the syrian regime, I won’t hate them any less because they are arabs. If we can’t get past that kind of arabism then the hell with it and those who defend it, we suffered more than enough. And guess what more, I profoundly believe that the main support that the Assads have always had comes in a deep way from Israel and the fact that they were negociating over our blood this summer is only the tip of the iceberg. Israel supports that regime because they are fundamentaly the same kind of evil.

I saw my comment posted with the mention “Awaiting moderation”. When our suffering and frustration will be moderated then my point of view will consider some “moderation”. As I would like to add that our lack of “moderation” has been and will always be in words and opinions, we’re not the ones obstructing justice, causing a war, killing politicians and intellectuals,and cripling the economy of the whole country by “peacful” strikes and terrorising people by “peacful” sit-ins. For us it’s words and opinionsand even our wish of death towrads some won’t kill them.